Latest / Talking Dawgs / Week 0 COLLEGE FOOTBALL LOCKS: UNC/TCU, NCST/UVA, Stanford/Hawaii & more
Transcript
- Daniel: It is week zero and Clint Clint: Yep. Daniel: and I have we don't have many goals in our life. Okay? We're not we don't have a lot left to live for. We've Clint: No. Daniel: already we've passed any sort of a prime, Clint, that we ever Clint: Whatever that is. Daniel: had. Listen, there's not a lot left, okay? One of the things that we take very seriously is making money betting on college football. One of the things that we take very seriously is helping you make money bet on college football. Clint, if the people if you were to have followed all of our picks for the last couple of years, you'd probab you'd probably be about five hundred. Is that right? Is that fair to say? Clint: I I'll say this. We collectively have tracked that and have seen the accounts become flush with a percentage that's over 65% throughout the years. Well over. Daniel: Yeah. We're making significant withdrawals on the on the on the DraftKings account. On the FanDuel account. Whatever account is your preferred partner, not a sponsor, could be, reach out. Clint, let's talk about week zero. Okay. First of all, thank you, college football. Because we finally have figured out hey, if we're gonna waste our time playing some week zero games. Clint: Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. Daniel: What if we play a lot of week zero games and we make actually really compelling games? Clint: What if we did that? Daniel: There are, to me, this is a this is a fully loaded slate. There is an early kick. It's in Ireland. It's a power five versus power five matchup. There is a midday kick. It is an It is an ACC conference game, Clint. Clint: Yep. Daniel: And then there there is a night slate that is going to require you to pull out the tiles on your television set. It's going to require Clint: Yeah. Daniel: you to watch multiple screens at once. And on a week zero, Clint, that is a beautiful thing. If you're not as jacked up about week zero as Clint and I are, I don't know what to tell you. I hope this podcast will do something for you, but it's here. It's time. Clint. Clint: Yes, it's here, it's time. Glad to be here. Week zero slaps, and if you don't think it slaps, you have another thing coming. Daniel, let's let's start. Daniel: Yeah, please. Clint: Over in I th by the way, I think Disney is calling this something like the Argus classic or something like that. Like it's Daniel: Let's head across the pond. Clint: Let's go across the pond, shall we? This is really wild, by the way, Daniel. Have you did you ever think we'd be watching across the pond games with such gusto? Daniel: I mean, do you remember when Georgia Tech beat Florida State in Ireland on a last second field goal in week zero in a season when Georgia Tech was a preseason top ten team? Clint: Uh-huh. Uh-huh. Daniel: listen, this Ireland game has low-key become really interesting. And this year is no exception. It's Big 12 versus ACC. It's Bill Belichick. In How is he still coaching? Nobody knows. Clint: How Daniel: Bill Belichick versus TCU. speaking of how is he still coaching? Sonny Dykes is living off of 2022. Still. TCU is seven and a half point favorite, as of time of recording. the over-under is 47.5. Clint. I would a no- this is normally the point in the show when I would ask, do you have a lock? But I will forego the formalities and I will s I will Clint: Get get that out of the way. Daniel: say Tell the people your lock because it's week zero and we you know we gotta fill up the card. Clint: 100% we gotta fill up the card. Here's the deal. Let me break it down for you best I can. North Carolina has a has been coach that was slow to begin the season last year. TCU looks to be reloaded and has a couple of notable guys looking for competition. They lost a quarterback, they regained one. It's really, really ridiculous. But I'll tell you this right now. TCU is a for real team. Like I I think they could make some noise this year. They are talented. The coach is kind of faltering. North Carolina doesn't have the talent TCU does does. It's early on in the season. Coaching it's it's another year for Bill Belichick. Can he repeat the success? He's got a new quarterback starting, a little transfer. Give me TCU. I don't care. I think they Daniel: You're gonna lay seven and a half. Clint: I'm laying seven and a half. Seven the hook is weird to me. The seven and a half is weird. But this is Bill Belichick does not belong in college ball. This is TCU having talented people. This is across the pond with college kids not living up to what he thinks. Give me the horn frogs and laying them. Daniel: Wow. Listen, this is not a time to to fold. You understand? Like this is not Clint: Mm. Mm-hmm. Daniel: this is not the time when you want to be second guessing your thoughts and the notes that you have written down. I'm going to stick to my guns, Clint. Typically, Clint: Here we Daniel: you and I we we see a lot Clint: Lockstep. Daniel: of things eye to eye. in Ireland in week zero. On a soccer stadium. God only knows what the turf conditions are gonna be like. God only knows what the weather is gonna be like. God Clint: Who knows? Who knows? Daniel: only knows what these teams are gonna look like. Here's what I know. I know that the University of North Carolina is probably going to have a fairly sound defensive scheme. Clint: Okay. Daniel: And I know that I'm not laying seven and a half points in Ireland in week zero. Clint: Chicken. You coward. Daniel: I'm taking North Carolina. We're gonna have to fight. We're gonna have to fight it up right here. I do like the under in this game. It's forty-seven and a half. It's it's well under that key number of like forty-nine. Even if it got up over forty eight and a half, I would probably lean towards the under. But I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna hitch my wagon to the points. I'm gonna say that this is gonna be a close, competitive, interesting, sloppy, ugly, pretty gross football game, and I'm going Clint: Gross. Daniel: to love every second of it. Clint. Alright. We're gonna we're gonna move through what I'm gonna call the I'm gonna say the three marquee games and then we're gonna circle back and give you chance to have any any other bets. Clint: Okay, great. I'm d well Okay. Daniel: Okay? Clint: Sure. Daniel: Virginia NC State. Afternoon slate Clint: Ooh, here we go, ladies and gentlemen. Daniel: ACC conference game. This is not just an ACC Clint: Conference. Daniel: conference game. These two teams feel like they can win the ACC this year. Clint: Ye yep. Daniel: They feel like they can actually win the league this year. There's a lot of teams. Like Clemson feels like they can win the league. SMU feels like they can win the league. Louisville feels like they can win the league. Everybody knows it's Miami and everybody else in the ACC. But that everybody else, Clint, involves the teams I just mentioned Clemson, SMU, Louisville. It also involves NC State and Virginia. These teams feel Clint: Yeah, if Daniel: like they're right there with a chance to compete for Miami with Miami for the ACC title. Clint: I don't think people really understand how good the quarterback play is going to be in this game. For ACC Daniel: Ooh. Clint: and for this game, you have your Daniel: A duel. Clint: s a duel, if you will. Bull Prabula transferred on in. Okay. Daniel: Yeah. Clint: He's starting quarterback. They named him as such. He's gonna be doing so. I think that his legs are such an asset, clear that they were, but CJ Bailey on the other side for the Wolfpacks. Daniel: Yeah. I love CJ Bailey. Clint: Daniel. D Love him. Daniel: I love CJ Bailey. Clint: What why would you love him? I don't know. Because he threw for over 3K and had 31 touchdowns. What of course you're gonna love him. I I think he's the better quarterback. The new quarterback, Virginia, had success last year. Kind of surprised from people. I like the coach over there. He's doing some good things. But CJ Bailey to me is the story here. I like him a great deal more. If you're taking NC State, you are giving four and a half points. But Daniel: Uh-huh. Clint: Daniel, that's because NC State doesn't lose to Virginia. Dave Dorian is four and against Virginia. And I think with transfers Daniel: Whoa. Virginia's the four and a half point favorite in this game. Yeah. It's getting four and a half. Clint: Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Yeah, yeah, yeah. NC State is getting four and a half. I'm so sorry. Yes. But but NC State should be favored in this game. I don't know why they're not. It's ridiculous to me. Daniel: Ooh. Clint: they have the better quarterback. They got some transfer guys coming in. Maybe the defense over on Virginia is a touch better. I will give you that, but I think CJ Belly goes in and takes care of business. I'm taking the four and a half and I'm counting it gloriousness because I actually think they should be the favorite. Give me NC State Go Wolf Peck. Daniel: Not like this, Clint. Not like this. Okay. Clint: we no, people. no. Daniel: I I don't know what to tell you. A home team in week zero. Do you remember when Clint: Yeah. Yeah. Great. Daniel: Tony Elliott was a the laughing stock of college football? He went to Virginia and he was Clint: People didn't believe him. Daniel: an abject failure. Clint: He was. Daniel: Written him off. First of all, Kudos to Virginia for not firing this man after year one when he was a abysmal. Clint: Give some room. Yep. Daniel: Gave him a little bit of leash coming from Clemson, and he has turned this program into a legitimate contender. You mentioned they bring in Bo Pabula. I don't love him as starting quarterback. I'll be totally honest with you. That's not the part of this Virginia team that makes me feel great. But You know what Virginia has, Clint? Virginia has the number one most experienced roster in all of college football. Meaning they return, they bring in like their starting 22 has more snaps played of college football than any team in America. The most experienced roster in all of college football. When you're playing week zero at home. Clint: Mm-hmm. Daniel: With guys who have been there and done that and been through the wars before. I think Tony Elliott's got this thing figured out. I think Virginia's a sleeper in the league this year. I think they've got a legitimate shot to make a run. I love CJ Bailey. I said that. I think the Wolfpack are going to make some people's seasons very difficult this year. But I'm gonna have to we're gonna have to fight on two for two here because I'm going Virginia. Clint: my god Daniel: I'm gonna lay them. In Charlottesville at home against the Wolfpack. Alright, let's go to the nightcap. it's Stanford, Hawaii. It's Hawaii traveling to the mainland. Clint: They are. Daniel: And Clint, Hawaii, a three and a half point dog. Stanford a three and a half point home favorite. Andrew Luck. No eligibility left, although with the five for five rule, there's no telling. Clint: Me maybe he does. Daniel: Maybe we will get Andrew Luck under center. Clint: It would be something. Daniel: But Stanford, Andrew Luck is the GM, we know. home game. They're hosting Hawaii. Timmy Chang coming to town. I'll lead off on this one. Clint: Go ahead. Daniel: Hawaii's got a starting quarterback that cannot stay healthy. Clint: He cannot. He's very talented when healthy. Daniel: He's very talented. He runs the system very well. He cannot stay healthy. Clint: No. Daniel: Do you know when he's gonna be healthy? Week zero, Clint. He's gonna be healthy Clint: Interesting. Daniel: in week zero. Unfortunately, that doesn't help Stanford at all in this game. Clint: No. No. Daniel: Now, Hawaii not great traveling to the mainland. Historically. They are not Clint: They are not Yep. Daniel: great. It does feel like it's a bit of a new era at Stanford. Clint: Uh-huh. It is it is a new era in Stanford, I'll tell you that much right now. Daniel: I think this game is sneaky, really important to the Stanford Cardinals. Clint: It Yes. Daniel: I don't love a side in this game. But I am betting the over 48 and a half. I think we're going to see some offense in this game. I do not think Hawaii is going to be able to stop Stanford. I don't think they have the the like the physicality to stand up to the Stanford offense. And I think that Hawaii's offense with a healthy quarterback, week zero. Is going to be able to exploit Stanford through the air and I think they're going to be able to move the ball. Right now the line is at 48 and a half. I will take the over there. Like I see this game going somewhere in that realm. It could even get weird. Like this could be like a 42-35 type game. Where the over's an easy cash. Like we're cashing at halftime. Forty eight and a half was, I think, too few points. I don't trust the Hawaii defense. And Hawaii's offense is going to be as good as they're going to be all season. So that's my play in this game. The over. What do you like in Stanford, Hawaii? Clint: The place where Stanford, I I by the way, I love your pick. Love your pick. The notable places that Stanford got transfers in wide receiver, quarterback, offensive line. Immediate improvement. Gilbranson, I think it was last year, looked just so inept. Doesn't even begin to describe how bad he looked at quarterback last year, Daniel: Mm-hmm. Clint: especially in this game. I think they went for it on every third and fourth down imaginable through the air and did not get anything possible. He looked bad. Michigan transfer comes on over, wins the starting job, ahead of a freshman. They have a couple wide receivers as well that I think are actually very talented at a wide receiver. Stanford always has one guy that stands out. So I like the over on this, but this is a new era. Give me Stanford. I Hawaii's coming on over. Stanford is favored in this game, which I don't like. Daniel: Whoo Clint: I do not like that they are favored. But I think Stanford Daniel: No. Clint: wins, and I think it's gonna be a lot of points. I think a touchdown decides this game. So if that's true. I'm gonna go with the team that's favored by that. And that's three and a half. I couldn't do a field goal. So give me Stanford laying the points at home against Hawaii. They do not travel well. This is a repeat match from last year, week one. I think this is a totally different the they got a good coach at Stanford. They got good quarterback, good wide receiver combo, and I think that's continues to accelerate the day. But there are gonna be a lot of points scored in this game. I completely agree with you. Daniel: Yeah. Yeah. all right, Clint. Anywhere anywhere you wanna go, there's several other interesting games on this schedule. I know that you're betting on some of them. Clint: There are. I'm betting on USC to absolutely beat the backside of San Jose State. Daniel: Boat race. It is the race of boats. Clint: I Lincoln Riley don't have a soul. He will be Daniel: No Clint: on he's already on the hot seat, and if he doesn't make the playoffs this year, there is a real conversation about firing him. I don't know if it'll happen, but the conversation Daniel: Yeah. Clint: is real. He needs to come out. He has a Heisman quarterback, he has a very talented room. Mayave is a very, very, very good, one of the top six quarterbacks in the nation. I'd put him in. I really like him. I Daniel: Mm-hmm. Had a good year last year. Clint: boat race San Jose by more than 40 points. I think the line's at 38 and a half right now. I don't care. I wouldn't lay him if it was Georgia because Kirby Smart pulls everybody. Lincoln Riley will not pull a single soul until the five minutes left in the fourth quarter. Boat race San Jose. Daniel: Yeah, I don't hate that. I'm gonna go to the late the late show. Clint: Ooh, the the New Mexico State? Daniel: No Memphis UNLV, Clint. Memphis Clint: Ooh, here we go. I like this a lot. Daniel: UNLV. The fighting Dan Mullins of UNLV. Kind of a trendy pick to make the college football playoff this year. Maybe go on a little Clint: They are. Very trendy. Daniel: bit of a run this year. they're gonna score some points. Memphis loses their coach. Kind of a new system coming in. Clint: Yeah. Yeah. Daniel: I still like them. Going on the road, catching four and a half points. I think Memphis is a live dog in that game. I I'm gonna be very interested to see if UNLV can stop anybody. And if UNLV turns the ball over a couple times, like that's how they they I mean they could just literally throw themselves out of games. That's what they did last year. Clint: They can. Yeah. Daniel: So I I'm gonna sprinkle a little bit on the Memphis money line and just and just see what there is to see. No. Clint: I don't hate that at all, Daniel. That's not a problem. Do you have Florida State? New Mexico State. You like New Mexico State at one point in the offseason. Daniel: I do. I mean New Mexico is New Mexico's obviously the team, you know, I I think New Mexico's a a really solid team. Clint: Okay, good. Daniel: New Mexico State is fun to play with in the video game, college football video Clint: They they are. Daniel: game. That was my team in the college football video game. New Mexico Clint: Yeah, it should be. Daniel: State, unfortunately, in real life, is quite bad. They're Clint: Quite bad. Daniel: they're bad. I I'm not touching that game. I will tell you Clint: Okay. Daniel: this, Clint. I'm laying a lot of points with Eastern Michigan. I don't care and I hope I I I say this as a way of personally offending you. Clint: Uh-huh. Yeah. Daniel: Eastern Michigan's gonna beat the crap out of Sacramento State. Clint: Sack State put a lot of money, a lot Daniel: There's Clint: of money into the program to up its Daniel: A lot of eggs in one basket. Clint: and you know what? There is a lot of talent in the valley, Daniel. I'm here to tell you Daniel: I Clint: a lot of hidden gems, okay, in the valley. Daniel: Sure. Sure there is. I think Sacramento State might go and twelve this year. Clint: that's not a that's not a bad if I had to bet more time Daniel: That's Clint: like if you if you run the simulation, that percentage is very high. Daniel: Yeah, it's one and eleven or and twelve. Like it's it's one of those it's one of those two. They are one of the five worst teams in the FBS. Now, Eastern Michigan's not good, but Clint: Hundred percent. Daniel: you get a home game in week zero as an Eastern Michigan team. This might be your only chance at a big win all year. I think they're gonna run it up at this point. You know you're not pulling your starters if you're eastern Michigan. Clint: Nope. Daniel: No, you're trying to give guy you're trying to flex on him one time. So I'm gonna sprinkle a little bit. Eastern Clint: Let's let's get after it. Let's build that confidence. All right. Daniel: Michigan minus nine and a half. That's my absolute sick play of week one. It will mean a little bit more to some of us than it will to others. It matters Clint: To sum to some Daniel: a significant amount. Listen, Clint and I will be here Clint: Game has a lot of importance. Daniel: every Thursday with locks all season long. Follow along with us. Track our picks. Let us know how we're doing. Let us know if you're making money. Drop a comment. Let us know who your favorite line is, who your favorite pick is for week zero. We'll be back. We'll be covering. Obviously, we cover Georgia football each and every day. But we'll be covering all of college football in this locks episode every week. Hope you'll join us. Make sure you're subscribed. Tell a friend. Tell somebody that you hate. All of that. And we'll see you guys next time. Clint: See ya.