Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | September Call-Ups | MLB | 9/1/26

Transcript

Tuesday BEST BETS | September Call-Ups | MLB | 9/1/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess. Three team parlay turned to
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: dust in your head. Now you stare at the chips
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby. Look at me now.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Hold on. Hold on, not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: hold on Let me pull you out That fell apart
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: by its heart But it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on Stay with me now What's up, everybody?
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: It's Toad back with you with Toadstool Sports for Tuesday,
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: September 1st. We're in September call-ups, man. I had nothing
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: better to call the show, but we'll have expanded baseball rosters. Now,
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: I forget how many roster spots open up, but teams
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: will be calling up extra guys, of course, so we'll
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: see how that might have an impact. I mean, it
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: doesn't really impact my handicapping, really. It's just be aware
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: that the bullpens are going to have more arms in
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: them pretty much. So when a bullpen gets burned out
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: in one game or whatever, they might still have other
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: guys available that normally wouldn't be. We won with the
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: one play on the show yesterday with San Diego. It
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: was an easy, it should have been even easier. I
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: think if you played first five, you won it as well,
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: but they won the game five to nothing. They had
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: a ton of hits in the game. Like they, I
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: think they won the hit battle like 14 to five,
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: or it might've been even more extreme than that. So
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: they probably should have won even more easily than the
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: score suggested, but whatever. Yeah, I mean, I'm happy with that.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: We got the win with the one play yesterday. Let's
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: go into today, man. Not really much else to say here.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: We got baseball all in the evening here, and that's
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: the only thing that's going on tonight as we await
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: football returning, and the women will not be playing their
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: shitty basketball for a while, except in the World Cup
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: or whatever. We'll see how the U.S. does in that.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: Mets and Tampa Bay is the first game up here.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: The Mets actually won yesterday, 3-2, which I thought Tampa
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: Bay had a pretty big edge in that game against
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Robert Stock, but I guess he pitched pretty well yesterday.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Pretty surprised by that. We're flying up blind here today,
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: by the way, as none of the odds screens are
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: working today, so I don't know what to tell you
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: about this odds logic. I guess has to fix their shit.
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: So we're all blind today. I do have three plays
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: today in baseball and they're all totals. This game, as
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: far as the bullpens are concerned, Tampa Bay used three
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen yesterday. I think the Mets
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: have the slightly better bullpen. The Mets did use five
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: bullpen arms though, but we do have call-ups now. Tampa
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Bay's number two in bullpen whip, or actually I'd say
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: there's still three because the Yankees are tied with them,
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: but with a way better ERA, of course. Mets are
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: number six, but they have the better ERA over Tampa,
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: so I will give them the slight edge here still.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: Tampa definitely better offensively. Number seven, Mets number 26. Could
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: be maybe a bounce back for Tampa Bay here. Like
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: New York, the Mets are just playing out the stretch.
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: I'll give them credit. They are trying to win games still,
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: which makes them a pretty bettable team here down the stretch.
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, they're trying to maintain first place in the Division,
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: of course, but the Yankees also lost along with them yesterday,
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: so Tampa probably happy about that. And, yeah, I said, yeah, hitting-wise,
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: the Mets are terrible. Where are they? I think I
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: skipped this whole thing. I'm looking at pitching. I'm all
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: over the place. Yeah, the Mets are 26th in hitting,
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: and Tampa Bay's number seven. So, yeah, Tampa Bay has
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: the better offense. Tampa Bay also, I think, has the
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: best home record in baseball still. And on the surface...
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Given what these pitchers have done throughout their careers, Tampa
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: Bay should have the pitching edge here, and I do
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: think that they do. Sean Minaya appears to be getting
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: the start for the Mets, 4.55 ERA, 1.32 whip. He's
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: been okay this season, somewhat of a bounce-back season for him, really. 4.26
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: road ERA, so he is actually better on the road.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: Hasn't really been that good in his last few starts,
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: although his command numbers haven't been too bad here, but
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: he's giving up some runs. Maybe he's been a little
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: bit unlucky, except his last start was legitimately not very
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: good against Milwaukee. He got hit too hard there. His
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: hit rate is not great. It's right at one per inning.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's somewhat high. Strikeout rate, actually the walk
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: rate's okay, I guess. The strikeout rate's decent, so strikeout
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: walk ratio's all right for him, right at three. His
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is one of the lowest that he's
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: had for quite a while. Lower than nine, but it's
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: still not bad. Against the Rays, 25 at-bats. They have
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: six hitters who have faced him, six strikeouts, two walks.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: 200 average, but they've hit him for power, which is
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: four home runs between Diaz and Fortes, two each, and
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: that gives them a 939 OPS against him. If you
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: take those home runs out, they really haven't done a
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: whole lot of damage against him, but I don't know.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I fully want to trust Minaya
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: or not. Freddy Peralta getting the start for Tampa. He's
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: had an ugly season, like easily his worst. 5.11 ERA, 1.41 whip,
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: but he does seem to be improving, and he's been
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: a good home pitcher this year, although 4.09 ERA doesn't
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: really look that good, but he's definitely been a better
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: home pitcher this year, although most of that was with
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: the Mets. He's only made one home start with Tampa
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: so far, and it actually wasn't really that good, but
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: he's surrounded that with three starts that are actually better
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: than that. I know he gave up five runs in
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: the start at Baltimore, but his command numbers are good
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: in that start. I think he got unlucky there, and
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: then his last start was one of his best. Sixth
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: inning shutout of Detroit, so he might actually be finally
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: getting it together here. His ERA is not good over
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: the past month, but his strikeout walk ratio is good.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: He's got a high hit rate on the season, though.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: His walks have been an issue, which they've been an
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: issue throughout his career, but his walks have been even
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: higher this year, and his strikeout rate has been mediocre
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: this year. leading to having a strikeout walk ratio that's
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: not really that good this year, but it's been better
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: since he's moved over to Tampa. Maybe he has more
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: motivation because Tampa actually is a playoff team here, almost
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: certainly at this point. His strikeout per nine has actually
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: gone down since joining Tampa, so it seems like maybe
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: the coaches have changed how he pitches a little bit,
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: and maybe he's less strikeout heavy, but he's keeping guys
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: off the base pass a little bit more, especially... It
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: looks like he's getting his walk number down, and that's
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: a good thing. His numbers against the Mets are good,
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: and it's interesting, because I believe this is going to
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: be the first time he's facing the team that just
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: got rid of him. So, you know, I always talk
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: about that. A lot of times, starting pitchers, especially, because
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: they can affect the game so much, they'll come out
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: and they'll want to do really well against a team
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: that just got rid of them. Even though, yeah, that
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: team's going to be familiar with them, and Peralta's been
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: around for a while, so hitters have seen him before
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: and whatever, but He might be extra motivated to go
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: out there and deal against the team that got rid
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: of him. He's got 61 at-bats against the Mets' current lineup,
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: and he's had the upper hand against them. 131 average allowed,
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: 579 OPS. 22-13 strikeout walk ratio, though, so that's not
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: a good walk ratio, but Juan Soto has a ton
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: of those walks, five of them. So I do like
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay in this one. I think they're going to
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: bounce back. They're better at home. They're not really that
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: heavy of a favorite here. You can't see what the
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: line is here, but according to ESPN, it's in the
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: minus 120s, it looks like, on the money line. Although
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: I think first five might be the better option because
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: I don't really think that Tampa Bay has the better bullpen.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: So maybe Tampa Bay first five, focus just on the
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: starting pitching. Peralta might be a little bit undervalued. because
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: of the way he's pitched this season. So you might
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: be able to find a decent money line on that number.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: I think that's the way that I would probably look
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: at that game. San Diego and Cincinnati, we got the
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: win with San Diego yesterday. I'm not really interested in
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: backing them with Vasquez on the mound here, although he's
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: been good recently. Cincinnati returned home spot yesterday, plus coming
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: off the Sunday night game, had a bad game, but
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: you know what I always say, when a team gets
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: shut out at home, And they do bad in a
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: return home spot. In either of those situations, the team
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: usually bounces back and does better in the next game.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: So Cincinnati may be in a bounce back spot here.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: So I'm not really interested in looking at the San
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: Diego side in this one, although they do have the
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: better bullpen. And they were able to kind of rest
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: some of it yesterday. They only used two guys out
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen yesterday. Cincinnati used four. So San Diego
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: definitely will have a bullpen advantage here. They're number eight,
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: but like I said, they're like a top five bullpen.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's number 25, not a very good bullpen. San Diego,
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: 24th overall hitting Cincinnati 23rd, but San Diego has hit
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: better since the All-Star. break, so they probably do have
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: the better offense here, like I said yesterday. Randy Vasquez
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: pitching for San Diego. He is not great, but his
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: season numbers are actually not too bad here. 4.02 ERA, 1.28 whip.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: Advanced analytics guys can't stand him because he doesn't strike
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: guys out. Really... His performance all depends on how many
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: walks he's issuing. He's got a 3.86 road ERA, so
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: his ERA is actually better on the road, even though
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: San Diego is a very pitcher-friendly park. But his opponent
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: batting average on the road is actually higher. So do
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: what you want with that info. But over the past month,
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: he's actually been pretty good at not allowing runs. San
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: Diego has won four of his last five starts. He's
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: allowed two or fewer runs in four of the five starts.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: He's just not striking guys out, but he's got his
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: walk number way down, and he's not allowing hits, so
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: he spent the last month basically not putting guys on base,
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: so he is doing that fairly well. He's getting a
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: lot of ground ball outs, but he doesn't strike guys out,
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: and usually he has problems with walks. However, he is
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: in decent form right now. His hit rate is above
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: one per inning on the season, though, which is not good.
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: Although usually the thing that bites him is the walks,
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: but the walk number is actually fairly low this year.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: So give him credit for that. But he also has
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: a really low strikeout rate. So the strikeout walk ratio
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: is still pretty bad. Barely above two, although that's actually
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: better than what he's usually put up there. Strikeout per
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: nine is a low number. I mean, he's not a
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher. Numbers against Cincinnati are not particularly good. 24 at-bats,
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: 333 average, 887 OPS allowed, 4-4 strikeout walk ratio. None
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: of those numbers are good. Small sample size, but that's
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: still pretty bad. That was in, what was it, 26 at-bats?
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: 24 at-bats. So, yeah, it's a small sample, but it's
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: not good. Nick Lodolo is pitching for Cincinnati. He has
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: not had a good season. 5.24 ERA, 1.54 whip. He's
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: not old, and he's capable of pitching better than this,
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: as we've seen in past seasons, but I think some
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: injuries have just kind of derailed him for the past
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: year or so. We'll see if he can kind of
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: regain his form, but he hasn't really been able to
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: do that this year. He's been better at home, 4.7
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: home area, although that's still not very good. His last
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: couple starts were really rough, did not pitch well in
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: either of those starts against San Francisco, which is not
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: a good sign, in San Francisco, and against Arizona. I mean,
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: they're a better offense, so maybe you give him a
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: pass for that one. but still a bad start there
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: in that one. His hit rate is really high on
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: the season. He's been way too hittable and his walk
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: rate isn't even really that good either. Strikeout rate, nothing
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: impressive either. So there's nothing really good about any of
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: these numbers. His strikeout walk ratio is below two. And
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: last year he posted a five and pitched like the
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: entire season. So there's pretty clearly something wrong with them.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: Like last year he had actually a really good season, um,
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: Maybe he's more like what his 2024 season was. That
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: might be more the real Lodolo, but this year's been
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: way worse than that, so I don't know what is
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: going on with him. I think it's the injuries. He's
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: had a couple of different injuries and some blister stuff
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: coming up, so I have no idea. His strikeout per
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: nine is also at the lowest that it's been in
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: his career in the sevens. He is good against San
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: Diego typically, though, and 46 at-bats, 174 average, 617 OPS allowed,
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: 11-6 strikeout walk ratio. You know, I think maybe that's
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: how I would look in this game is to take
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati in the first five. San Diego's like a minus
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: 130-something favorite in the full game, and I don't think
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: Vasquez should really be favored like that on the road, really,
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: probably against anybody. I think Cincinnati might be able to
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: hang around in this one in the first five. I
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: would not want to include their bullpens in that, but
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: it seems like it is a bounce-back spot for them.
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: That's the way I would look in this game. It
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: would be a matchup play pretty much. Well, it's kind
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: of a situational play too. I also probably would lean
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: over in this one. The total is 9.5. So, I
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: don't know. I don't have a feel for the total
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: in the other game I talked about. This is still
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: going to take long, even though I don't have the
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: market stuff to look at today. But, yeah, I mean,
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: the total in that game is 9.5, San Diego, Cincinnati. So,
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: odds makers are kind of expecting it to be a
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: high-scoring game. All right. Garrett, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: Over in which one? The Tampa Bay game or the
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati game? I like the Cincinnati one better than the
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: other one. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Yeah,
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't have a play on those. The
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: next game I do have a play, and I hope
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: it's not something that's as obvious as maybe it seems.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know. This is just a pitching matchup where
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: this just feels like it's one that I'm going to
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: be on. We're going to take the under in Giants
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: and Pirates. It is at 7.5. I know I don't
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: really love these bullpens, so I wanted to exclude the bullpens,
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: but the first five numbers, like 3.5, and Pittsburgh was
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: off yesterday, so Pittsburgh does have a rested bullpen, so
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: I think that will help the cause of the under
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: here because they'll be able to use whatever arms they can.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: And the other thing that I like about this is
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: that both starters could go deep into this game. Like
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: Logan Webb is on one side, and he is known
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: for pitching a lot of innings. That's just what he does.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: And Paul Skeens might actually kind of be back in form,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: and that's what the hope is here. So the hope
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: is that these starters can have prolonged starts here, cut
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: into what the bullpens would normally do. What the fuck?
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: There's something going on outside, man. I just hear car horns.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: This is just fuck off, everyone. It might be a
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: car alarm, actually. I have no idea what the fuck
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: that is. Anyway, Pittsburgh was off yesterday, and I believe
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: they're returning home from a road trip, if I'm not mistaken.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: Am I wrong about that? No, I'm right. So they were, yeah,
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: long road trip return from Pittsburgh. They were in L.A.,
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: San Diego, and then St. Louis. Now they're returning home.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: You know what I always say. When a team has
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: a long road trip like that and they return home,
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: it's a negative. You got to get back to home life.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: It could be a distraction, but I think that distraction...
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: because it's like a team wide thing, it's going to
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: have more of a tendency to affect the lineup in
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: some way than one single starting pitcher. You know what
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: I mean? Like one pitcher can overcome that distraction more
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: easily than everybody in an entire lineup. So I think
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: the distraction actually tends to help out the case of
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: the under a little bit. Plus they're having to change
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: time zones and whatever. San Francisco played yesterday. That was
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: a makeup game against the Braves. They beat Garrett's Braves yesterday,
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: which I didn't, I didn't really think that was going
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: to happen, although I did not like the Braves' side
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: in that one. I can tell you that. I leaned
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: over in that game, and it did happen, barely. San
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: Francisco now having to travel. They're having to play in
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: three different cities in three days, which is not great,
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: so I would not want San Francisco here. They were
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: in San Fran two days ago, then in Atlanta yesterday,
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: and now in Pittsburgh. That's pretty difficult. So I think
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: it's a pretty negative spot for both teams, and this
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: happens a lot on these days where some of the
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: teams have the previous day off. You get one team
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: in a return home spot, which is really negative, but
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: the other team is at a rest disadvantage, and that's
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: the case with San Francisco here. So they had to
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: play yesterday. San Francisco did use some of their relief pitchers.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: They used three, including Smith. I think he's one of
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: their back-end relief guys. I don't even really know. He
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: might be their closer, actually. I'm not sure. I'm still
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: willing to do this, though, to get the key number
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: here and not have to deal with the 3.5. I
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: like Logan Webb. He's pitching for San Francisco, 3.72 ERA, 1.1 whip.
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's a pretty consistent dude, although he is
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse on the road usually, 4.16 road ERA.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: And I understand that Pittsburgh is really good offensively at home,
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: but I think the return home spot can slow them down.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: The fact that it's kind of the end of the
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: season and the season's kind of over for them might
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: slow them down as well. And Webb actually does have
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: good matchup numbers against him, and Webb is in pretty
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: good form right now as well. Posted a good ERA
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: in August and had one bad start in there at
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: Fenway Park. I know it was a road start, but
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: he bounced back, had a good start last time out
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: against Cincinnati. Yes, he still remains better at home than
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: on the road, and the majority of his recent starts
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: have all been at home. Had one good road start
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: in there at Texas. He does have a low hit
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: rate on the season, doesn't really walk that many guys,
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: doesn't strike out a lot of guys either, but he
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: keeps guys off the base pass. His strikeout walk ratio
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: is above three because he walks few guys, and his
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is low. It's a lot lower than
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: it was last year, but it's kind of in line
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: with what he's done throughout his career. It's in the sevens,
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: but his numbers against Pittsburgh are good generally. He's held
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: him to a 207 batting average and a very low
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: 505 OPS, 25 to 3 strikeout walk ratio and 58
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: at bats here. So he's done quite well against Pittsburgh.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: So I'm willing to back him as part of this
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: under here. And I'm willing to also back Paul Skeens,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: even though Skeens has not really had a great season
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: based on what he's been able to do in his
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: other seasons. 3.79 ERA, 1.12 whip. I mean, those are
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: still good numbers. He is better at home, 3.59 home ERA.
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: Pitched well last time out. Had a shutout at San Diego.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: I know it's San Diego. It's their pitcher-friendly ballpark. But
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: it's a good sign that Skeens looks like he's bouncing back.
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: And two of his last three starts have been pretty good.
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: But that one, his velocity was back up, and he
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: went deeper into that start. So I think Skeens is
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: kind of trending in the right direction again here after
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: people thought he might be shut down for the season.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: He looks like he's moving in the right direction here, though.
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: Still has a low hit rate. low walk rate high
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate although maybe they're not up to skeins this
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: level that he has been in the last two seasons
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: but we know what he's capable of when he's actually
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: at like full strength he's he's at elite numbers and
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: we don't need him to be elite here we just
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: need him to be good um His strikeout walk ratio
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: is still good on the season. His strikeout per nine
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: is right in line with what it's been. So his
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: issues have been basically his walk rate has gone up
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: this year pretty much, and I guess his hit rate
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: has gone up a little bit too. That's about it.
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, I know that's how guys get on base
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: against you, but yes. Skeens against, dude, I always forget
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: who we're even talking about here. The Giants, yeah, I mean,
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: the Giants' offense is pitiful. They've never even faced Skeens,
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: believe it or not. So Skeens has an unfamiliarity edge
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: against the Giants. That should give him an extra edge there. Yeah,
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: we're going to take the under here in this one.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: And yeah, I forgot to show the bullpens and hitting here.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: I know the bullpens are not that good. Pittsburgh 20th,
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: but their ERA is right around 4. And they're rested,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: so I can tolerate that. San Francisco's 24th, but low
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: 4's ERA. And they do have some talent in that
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: bullpen here. I'm all right with going full game on
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: this one, I think. I don't think you're going to
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: find a first five at like three and a half
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: or whatever, given the rest and whatever with one of
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: the two bullpens. I think I'm all right with it.
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is a good offense, though, number six, but they've
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: been a little bit worse recently. Although, yes, they are
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: better at home. San Francisco's offense is pretty putrid. They're
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: number 20 tied with Arizona, but Arizona's definitely better. the
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: better of the two and has been better recently. So
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: that is the handicap there. Hopefully the market agrees with
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: all these, but the market is not reading here, man.
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, I could refresh this, but... Yeah, we got
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: problems here, man. We're going blind. All right. I can see,
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: I can see, I'm going blind. You're going to tail that?
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: All right, well, it better win, man. I'm not going
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: to win every bet, though. Toronto and Cleveland, this... Series, man,
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: I believe both of these teams are off yesterday, so
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: these teams are rested. Might be a spot to maybe
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: consider an under here. This series might have some unders
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: coming in in this because we have two bad offenses here,
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: and we might get some good pitching in this series.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: This matchup, though, I mean, I like one of the
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: pitchers and not the other, and it's probably obvious which
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: is which. So I don't know if I really want
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: to do the under here in this one. Both teams
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: are off. Cleveland won easily against the Royals the other day.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is... They're in the thick of it. They're fighting
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: for a wild card spot. I think technically Toronto's not eliminated, although,
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: you know, I mean, they kind of became sellers of
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: the trade deadline. Maybe they'll still show up. But I
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: think Cleveland's motivation's a little bit higher. But you got
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: to pay for it. You have to pay a huge
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: price for Cleveland here. And it's probably too high of
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: a price. Like Cleveland being this heavy of a favorite.
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: I know they did win easily the other day when
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: they had the matchup edge there. I think it was
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: Messick on the mound. And I did say I liked
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: Cleveland in that one. But I didn't think the price
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: was great. It's tough to rely on an offense that
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: doesn't hit well like this. Cleveland, pitching-wise, bullpen-wise, both these
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: bullpens are okay. Cleveland is 15th. Toronto is 17th. I
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: kind of think Toronto is slightly better, even though their
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: ERA is slightly worse. They have a good closer, at least.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: A couple of guys that are really good in the
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: back end of the Toronto bullpen. Offensively, like I said,
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: these teams are both trash. Cleveland 28th. Toronto is 27th. So, yeah,
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: these two offenses suck. Spencer Arrighetti is getting the start
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: for Toronto. I think he's made one or two starts
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: with Toronto since being, I believe, traded from Houston. He's
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: not been great. 4.81 ERA, 1.36 whip. He's kind of
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: young still, and he does have some talent, but he
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: is really, really wild, and he's not good on the road. 6.12
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: road ERA, so he's a lot worse on the road.
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: Both of his starts with Toronto have not gone well.
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: Had a good strikeout rate, but he gave up a
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: lot of walks, a lot of runs, a lot of hits.
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: Toronto lost both games. One was at the Yankees, so
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't take that much away from that one. But
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: he struggled again at home against a Kansas City team
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: that can't hit on the road. So that's not a
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: good sign. He's not pitching well right now, obviously. Eric
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: Getty against Cleveland. I mean, they're not a good offense.
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: But they've had some success against him at 36 at-bats.
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: They haven't hit him for contact,. 222 average. They do
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: have an. 822 OPS,. 88 strikeout walk ratio. So, again,
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: the walks have been an issue for Arrighetti here. Both
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: home runs against him are from Bazzana, so he might
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: be able to pitch around. The Italian Civil War, I guess, there.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: Is Bazzana Italian? It sounds Italian. I should know because
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: I am Italian. Bazzana. I don't know. Anyway, Eric Getty,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: his hit rate is low on the season, but his
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: walk rate is very high. His strikeout rate is pretty good,
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: like right at one per inning, but that walk number
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: is really bad. It's so bad that his strikeout walk
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: ratio is like right around two, which is not good enough.
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: Strikeout per nine is nine, so he's got to get
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: those walks under control. The walks are terrible. I don't
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: think I want to trust him here, man. Bad current form,
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: bad on the road. Matchup numbers against Cleveland aren't even
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: really that good. Gavin Williams is on the other side here,
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: pitching for Cleveland. He's been good. 3.980 ERA, 1.12 whip.
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: He's good at home. 3.27 home ERA, so he's better
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: at home. His last start was pretty bad, though. He
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: got just mashed by the Angels, which is not a
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: good sign. I mean, that is a bad offense, although
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: I know they... kicked the Yankees' ass yesterday, although that
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: was the next play. The first play I left off
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: my card yesterday was the Angels' first five, and that
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: was a winner if you played that one, although I
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: think it was close. I think the Angels kind of
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: started putting more runs up a little bit later in
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: the game, but whatever. Williams struggling at Anaheim against that
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: lineup that's not good at home either. That's not a
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: great sign. Two starts before that, he was also bad
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: against San Diego, although they've been hitting better recently, but
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Williams... his form is a little bit
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: difficult to gauge right now. Like he's been a little
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: bit too hittable here and his walk rate's been too high,
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: but he's also striking out a ton of guys. So
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: what do you do with that information? Like, I don't know, man,
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: he's got a really high strikeout rate. One of the
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: highest in baseball, his walk rate is not excellent, but
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: it's not the worst. His hit rate is good on the,
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: on the full season. He's allowed too many home runs
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: on the season. His strikeout walk ratio is way up
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: this year. Like he's, His strikeout rate has increased dramatically
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: this year, so he is striking out a lot of
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: guys this year. And his strikeout per nine is way
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: up this year, as that would indicate. So yeah, he's
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: turned into one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball.
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: Williams against Toronto does not have good numbers, though, at all.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know how, but 42 at-bats,. 357 average allowed,.
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: 1152 OPS, 7-6 strikeout walk ratio, and these numbers are
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: spread out across their whole lineup. They have multiple guys
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: that hit Williams well, so yeah, this game's not going
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: to be an under for me. I would probably actually
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: lean over in this game. I mean, these are ugly
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers, man, on both sides. So even though I
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: don't really want to do it because the bullpens are
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: all right, the offenses are terrible, both teams are rested,
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: and I think the rest helps the case of the
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: under because the offenses can cool off a little bit,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: the bullpens are rested. I don't really want to do it,
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: and I don't want to do anything with this game,
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: but I do think the over might be the better
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: way to look at this game. It's a low total, 7.5,
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: so oddsmakers... Telling you they think it's going to be
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: a low scoring game. And I don't like to go
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: against what the odds makers are telling you. But there's
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: definitely room for that thing to sneak over in that game.
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: Given those matchup numbers. That's what I think about that game.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: Cleveland I think should probably get the win. Like generally
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: I prefer Williams over Arrighetti. But minus 176 being the
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: price on Cleveland. You're paying because they're in the wild
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: card hunt. You know what I mean? You're paying for
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: Williams being the better pitcher pretty much. So. which I know,
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously you have to pay something for that,
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: but that price seems way too high. Cleveland can't necessarily
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: hit well enough to get that done, although I know
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: they did in their last game. They've been hitting a
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: little bit better recently, and I did say I think
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: this is going to be a more high-scoring game, so
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: that does help the case of the Cleveland run line
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: if you want to make a minus-one run line. But yeah,
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: I think I lean over in that game. What are
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: we talking about? I don't do seventh inning bats. I
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: have no idea. I mean, there are no key numbers
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: until it gets to the final line. So you're talking
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: about the Pirates game? Under seven at minus 105? You
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: got to get more books available to you, man. Yeah,
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think I would probably do that. Under
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: seven at minus 105? That's not a horrible price. I
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: prefer getting the hook, though, and I found it. I'm
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: pretty sure I found it at one of the big books, too,
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: the line that I gave out. I'm pretty sure that
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: was at, like, FD or one of those books. So, yeah, but, yeah,
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: I think I would still do it under seven. It's
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: not as good, though. Atlanta at Washington. Washington was– no,
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: Washington played yesterday. Both of these teams played yesterday. Washington
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: played a wraparound series, and they beat the Marlins in
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: that series yesterday. Washington had struggled against the Marlins this year,
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: but they had a good series there. Atlanta took the
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: loss yesterday in the make-up game, but basically Atlanta just
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: stayed at home for an extra game, and now they're
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: going on the road, so it's not really that bad
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: of a spot for Atlanta. In fact, it could be
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: a bounce-back spot because they just lost at home, and
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: now they're starting a road trip, which sometimes is a
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: focused spot. Although I think this game is going to
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: be about bad pitching, to be honest. I know Atlanta's
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: bullpen is good. They used two guys yesterday out of
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: the bullpen. Washington's bullpen is not good. They used three
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen. Atlanta's ranked fourth in bullpen. Yeah,
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: I think that's about where they are. They're like a
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: top-five bullpen. Washington is 26th. They are not a good bullpen.
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: They're bottom five, I would say. Atlanta offensively is 12th.
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: Washington is 3rd. So Washington's been pretty prolific offensively. And
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: I do not like these pitchers in this game. A.J.
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: Smith-Shaw versus pitching for Atlanta. He has not been good
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: this year. It's a limited sample size. 5.93 ERA, 1.61 whip.
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: These are not good numbers. He's been particularly bad on
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: the road. 6.23 road ERA. Granted, he's only made three
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: starts so far, but... All of them have been pretty ugly, man.
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: His walk rate, I mean, the strikeout walk ratio is
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: pretty bad. 10 to 8 in 13 and two-thirds innings,
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: allowing more than one hit per inning, allowing nine runs,
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: earned runs. This is not good. And that included a
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: start against the Mets, who are not a very good offense.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: I don't trust Smith-Shaw over here right now, man. His
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: numbers against Washington are fairly good, though, and 18 at-bats.
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: There's only four hitters who have faced him, though.. 222 average,.
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: 611 OPS,. 33 strikeout walk ratio, but it's a limited sample,
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: and he's pitching pretty badly right now, so I don't
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: want to back him here. I also do not want
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: to back Jake Irvin, who's pitching for Washington. 5.62 ERA, 1.4 whip.
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: He's been awful at home. 7.04 home ERA with a.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: 309 opponent batting average. That is not good. He had
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: six walks in his last start at home against Colorado,
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: even though he held them to one run in four
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: and a third innings. That's still not good. He didn't
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: go deep into the outing. He's not doing well, man.
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: He's got a high walk rate recently. That's a huge problem.
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: He's got a pretty low hit rate on the season.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: It's low enough, but his walk rate is definitely not good.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: on the season. His strikeout rate is pretty good. He
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: does have a good strikeout rate, but the walk rate
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: is so high. Strikeout walk ratio in the low twos,
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: that's not good. Strikeout per nine is the best that
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: he's posted, though. Basically, it's right at nine, one strikeout
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: per inning, so that is good. Good strikeout stuff, but
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: his wildness is definitely limiting him. Irvin against Atlanta. Does
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: actually have good numbers, though, and a huge sample, 134 at-bats,
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: 216 average, 661 OPS, 28 to 13 strikeout walk ratio.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: That ratio's not good, but the rest of these numbers
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: are pretty good. Still... I think this game goes over.
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, that would be my opinion here. The matchup
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: numbers don't really support it, but the oddsmakers have thrown
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: a 10 up there as the total here. Like, they're
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: not messing around. They're telling you that this game's going
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: to have a bunch of runs by putting the total
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: out there at 10. I know you can make the argument, well,
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: the matchup numbers are pretty good here, so maybe that
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: number's a little bit too high. If you're going to
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: play the under here, you should do it in the
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: first five, but I would not trust that. I mean,
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: you're looking at pitchers that are both pitching poorly right now.
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: They're both in the bad of their home road splits. Yeah,
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: the matchup numbers are there, and they're good for both pitchers,
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: but one of them is a small sample size. One
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: of the bullpens is very bad. Washington, odds maker's telling you,
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: game's going to be high scoring, so I think the
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: over is probably the way to look at that game. Oh,
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: under 5.5 in the first seven at minus 105. I
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: don't do anything with first seven bets. I don't do it.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: First five I do because that allows you to exclude
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: the bullpens. I mean, I see where you're going with that.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: Your starting pitching might stay in that game for about
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: that long. But like I said, I don't know if
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: you really need to cut out the last two innings
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: there because the starting pitchers get you that far. You're
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: probably going to be looking at better relief pitchers coming
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: into the game at that point. That would be the hope,
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: at least. If it's a low-scoring game, then it would
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: probably be a closer game. So, yeah. I never do
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: anything with first seven bets, though. Seattle at Boston. Really,
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: really crazy game yesterday. The Red Sox, I didn't love
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: the spot they were in. In a return home spot.
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: Neither starting pitcher did particularly well there. Totally kind of
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: got screwed by the bullpen coming in and giving up
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: more runs. Like some of the base runners that he
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: put on came home against the bullpen. Red Sox bullpen
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: was very bad in the game yesterday. Tyron Guerrero specifically
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: was horrible. I don't know what's going on with him.
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: He's been bad two appearances in a row. Guerrero is
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: like this really tall flamethrower that they use in middle relief.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: He throws over 100. He sucked. He was so bad yesterday.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: He was out there with two outs and he couldn't
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: get an out. It was insane. But the Red Sox
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: were able to come back and win in extra innings
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: in a dramatic way. A bunch of offense coming from
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox, even though they do not have Wilson
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: Contreras now he's on like the 10-day DL because he's
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: been playing with a bad hamstring but some of the
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: so that meant the Red Sox called back up Mickey
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: Gasper and there was this hilarious graphic that was on
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: screen during the game yesterday people posted all over Twitter
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: that listed the highest OPSs ever posted by anybody in
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: a single month of August and some of these guys
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: didn't play like that many games like Gasper's played like
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: half the month basically but it was Ted Williams in
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: probably the 50s, I guess. Barry Bonds in the 2000s
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: or some shit. And then Mickey Gasper this year. It's
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: so ridiculous. I forget what his OPS really is, but
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: it's been insane. This is a guy that was never
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: able to hit, and he was doing well in AAA,
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: so they called him up, and he hit five home
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: runs in his first eight games. Hadn't hit one since then,
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: and they send him down to activate Roman Anthony. And
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: then it was like before he even got off the
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: bus in Worcester, Wilson Contreras goes on the DL, and
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: they're like, all right, Gasper, you're back up. And then
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: what does he do? He hits a home run in
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: his first bat last night. It's completely ridiculous, dude. But whatever.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: Red Sox offense is clicking, at least right now. However,
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox have a huge problem here because this
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: is supposed to be Patrick Sandoval's next in the rotation,
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: but he's pitching tomorrow because remember the Red Sox had
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: a double header against the Yankees. So they need to
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: insert somebody in the rotation somewhere to get everybody on
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: normal rest and Sandoval blows. So I don't even want
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: him to pitch, but he's pitching tomorrow. That's probably going
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: to suck. But whatever the Red Sox are doing in
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: this game is also going to suck. Like they're probably
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: going to bring back up. Eduardo Ramirez, I think is
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: his name. He's pitched a couple of times this year.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: For the Red Sox, it's September call-ups now, so they're
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: probably going to call somebody up. It's probably going to
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: be him. So I don't know if I love that.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think he was maybe somewhat okay, but
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: I don't love what I'm seeing here. Or either that
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: or the Red Sox are going with the bullpen game,
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: which I don't really think they're going to do that
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: because they used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: but I don't know. Seattle used a bunch because it
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: was an extra inning game. They used five. The Red
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: Sox are still the number one bullpen in WIPP. Uh, ERA,
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: they're a little bit behind the Yankees now after two
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: really bad, uh, bullpen performances from the Red Sox. Uh,
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: Seattle has not been good, though. They're number 21, and
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: they're mid-4 ZRA. This bullpen has not been good, and
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: they were also not very good last night. Red Sox
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: got some of their better relievers last night, too. Bazzardo
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: was not good, and Munoz couldn't hold it either. Red
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: Sox number eight in offense. They've been good offensively recently.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: Seattle is tied in last place with the Angels, tied
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: in 29th. So the Red Sox have an offensive edge
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: here as well. Red Sox have finally been playing better
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: at home. They're finally above. 500 at home by a
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: few games. Seattle has a bad road record, so keep
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: that in mind. Seattle's not a good road team. Brian
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: Wu is pitching in this game. You might be able
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: to make the argument he's still Seattle's best pitcher. I
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: think he's good, but he's had some major road issues
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: this year. 4.36 ERA, but a 1.1 whip tells you
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: his ERA should be lower than that. These road numbers
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: are not very good, though. 5.96 road ERA. I mean, yeah,
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: it makes sense that Seattle's pitchers would be better in Seattle,
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: pitcher-friendly park, but the fact that he's this ugly on
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: the road doesn't make a whole lot of sense. However,
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: his last couple road starts have been good against the
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: Yankees in Houston, and those are not terrible offenses. So
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: he's been better on the road recently. He's been better
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: kind of in general, except last time at home he
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: wasn't good. And we had the under in that game,
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: and we escaped. Wu was bad in the first two
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: winnings of that game, although it was kind of a fluke, really.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: He gave up two bombs, I think both to Kyle Schwarber,
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: I believe, and that just completely impacted the game. So Wu,
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: I don't think he was actually that bad in that game.
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: I think he got kind of unlucky. So I would
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: say he's pitching well right now. Good command right here.
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: Wu has been really good throughout his career. His hit
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: rate this year is pretty low. His walk rate's low.
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: He doesn't really put guys on base. His strikeout rate's
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: right around one per inning, so that's good. He's still
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: got a good strikeout walk ratio, even though it's not
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: as good as what he posted the last couple seasons.
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: It's still almost five, though. I mean, you can't really
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: complain about that. And the strikeout per nine right at nine,
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: also a pretty good number. Woo has also been good
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: against the Red Sox. They only have six guys who
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: have faced him. 28 at-bats is a small sample. Rutschman, though,
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: he's the only guy that's done damage. Four for nine
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: with one home run against him. So he'll be in
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: the lineup. and connor long played last night so rutschman
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: is definitely going to be in the lineup here and
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: that's good for the red sox but the rest of
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: the red sox lineup has done absolutely nothing against woo
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: uh 10-0 strikeout walk ratio 179 average overall 536 ops
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: um I don't know, man. I mean, this total of
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: being at 7 is kind of ridiculous. Wu does have
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: good matchup numbers, but he's been pretty ugly on the road.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: Red Sox pitching scenario looks like it's not going to
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: be too good here. The bullpens are kind of worn
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: out after yesterday's extra inning game. This game could definitely
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: go over. The total being at 7 does seem a
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: bit ridiculous. Unless it was like Wu against one of
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox better pitchers, this total doesn't seem accurate
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: to me. You know what I mean? So, Yeah, I
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: don't have much on this game. I mean, you could
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: lean to Seattle, too. I mean, Wu should probably be
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: able to outpitch whoever the fuck the Red Sox are
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: pitching in this game. It's not going to be a
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: good pitching scenario for them. So I'll have a slight
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: lean to Seattle. I think that might be the better
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: way to play this, actually, is to just lean to
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: Seattle because Wu seems like he's at least gotten it
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: together on the road the last couple starts. I don't
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: really think he's going to do bad here. Those would
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: be my thoughts on that game. Yes, sir. I mean,
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: I'm stubborn, though, and that's just the way that I
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: play things. Over in, what, the Red Sox game? Yeah.
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: I would not disagree with that. I mean, given that
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: Wu has generally struggled on the road. He could go
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: out there and just ace, though. You know what I mean?
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: But the Red Sox are probably going to have some
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: bad pitching on their end. But if you want the over,
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: you kind of need both offenses to do their part.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: Detroit at Minnesota. Minnesota got the win yesterday, 11-1. Things
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: not going well for Detroit, man. They're pretty much done. Although,
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: because this is a divisional matchup, because Detroit got embarrassed yesterday,
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: I still think both teams are really going to show
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: up for this game here. And Detroit has the better
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: pitcher on the mound here. So, when I first looked
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: at this, I was thinking Detroit looks like the right
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: way to look here. After they got embarrassed yesterday, they
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: have an actual pretty good starter on the mound against
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: what looks like kind of a Minnesota bullpen game here, which...
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: I'm not really sure what Minnesota's doing here, though. Now,
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: Minnesota only used one guy out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: so if they want to do a bullpen game, they're
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: set up to do so, but their bullpen is pretty bad.
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: Detroit's bullpen is definitely better. Detroit only used one guy
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: out of their bullpen yesterday as well. Oh, I just
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: lost the, hold on, what? Where did that tab go?
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know what happened, man. I don't know, I
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: fucking lost the tab here. Let me bring it back up.
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: All right. Anyway, bullpen-wise, yeah. Minnesota's 29th. They're not as,
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're better than the A's, okay? I'll give
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: them that, but they're one of the worst bullpens. They're
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: like a bottom three bullpen. Detroit is number 16, so
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: they're decent. Offensively, Minnesota's been decent. They're ninth tied with
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: the White Sox. Detroit not doing well recently. They're down
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: to 22nd, so definitely some offensive struggles for Detroit recently.
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: Detroit tends to not be that good on the road,
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: but they got Troy Melton on the mound. He's been
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: pretty good. 1.86 ERA, 1.01 whip. Melton, I mean, there's
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: no way these numbers are sustainable, but he is pitching
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: pretty well right now. He's been good on the road. 1.4
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: road ERA. And he's still pitching well recently. I mean,
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: he hasn't thrown many innings this year, so his numbers
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: are pretty good recently. He's allowed three or fewer earned
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: runs in all but one start this entire season. Obviously
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: that's good. His command numbers are okay, although his walk
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: number has gone up recently. His hit rate is low
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: on the season. His walk rate's pretty low on the season.
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate isn't great, but It's okay-ish. Strikeout walk
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: ratio is around 3, so that is still pretty good.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: Strikeout per 9 is somewhat low, though, in the 7s.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: He's not a huge strikeout pitcher. The one really bad
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: thing is Minnesota has been able to hit him. They
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: have 21 at-bats against him. Most of their hitters have
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: faced him. 333 average, 1,095 OPS, 3-0 strikeout walk ratio.
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: That's not that great, so I don't know if I
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: really want to back Melton here, even though he should
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: be better than Minnesota with what looks like a bullpen game,
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: but I'm not really sure what Minnesota's doing. It looks
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: like Andrew Morris is listed as the starter. He's definitely
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: a relief pitcher, though. His numbers are not very good.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: They're pretty mediocre. His whip tells you he's not really
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: that good. But I think he's going to be more
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: of an opener, and Minnesota is supposed to be Connor
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: Prelip in this game, and he's not hurt, so... I
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: think Prelip will pitch because he'd be pitching on normal
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: rest here. So unless Minnesota has him scheduled, they don't
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: have him scheduled to pitch tomorrow. Tomorrow is Dean Creamer,
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure. So, yeah, I think Connor Prelip is
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: pitching in this game. It's just that I think Andrew
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: Morris is going to be an opener. So I think
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: it is going to be Prelip here in this one.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: That would be my guess. Maybe I'm going to be
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: wrong about that, but since he's not listed as pitching tomorrow...
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: This is his turn of the rotation. He'd be on
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: normal rest. If it is him, he has a 5.55 ERA, 1.39 whip.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: Not that good, but he's been better at home. 4.83
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: home ERA. Was decent last time out at the A's stadium,
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: which is a decent sign. Although Minnesota's lost his last
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: five starts, but... He was mediocre, at least in three
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: of them, and actually bad in the other two, which
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: I know that doesn't sound that great. He's been too hittable,
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: and he's been walking too many people on top of that,
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: but he is also striking a lot of guys out.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: That's an interesting combo. His hit rate is at one
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: per inning this season, which is not great. His walk
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: rate is mediocre. Strikeout rate is high, so he is
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: a guy that does have some strikeout talent here. He
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: has a decent strikeout walk ratio, and his strikeout per
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: nine is pretty high. And somehow Detroit has never faced
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: him So Prelip does have the unfamiliarity edge, even though
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: it's a divisional opponent. Maybe that will help him here.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: So I don't really want Melton here, man, even though
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: I think I might slightly lean that way towards Detroit
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: in this one. Detroit's going to be a small favorite here.
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: They do have the bullpen advantage. On the surface, Melton
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: should be able to beat Morris plus pre-lip or whatever
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's doing here you would think but I don't like
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: his matchup numbers either so I would probably also lean
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: over in this game the total at eight and a
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: half but I'm gonna lean Detroit anyway slightly I think
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: it's kind of a bounce back spot for them in
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: surface level it looks like they should have the better
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: pitching there so that's what I would do what what
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: says Sonny Gray no Sonny Gray's been shut down for
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: like two weeks it's definitely not Sonny Gray um All right,
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: didn't Gray pitch after Sandoval or no? No, no, it's
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: definitely not Sonny Gray, though. Maybe it would be his turn. No,
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: it would be Sandoval's turn in the rotation because he
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: pitched five games ago. No, I have no idea. I
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: think Gray, I don't know. I don't know where his
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: turn in the rotation was, but it's definitely not him.
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are shutting him down, which is going
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: to make them even worse. Miami and Kansas City. Kansas
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: City's returning home from a road trip. And this is
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: another situation where the team that is returning home has
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: a rest advantage. So Miami played yesterday because they were
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: in that wraparound with Washington. So Miami's at a rest disadvantage,
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: but Kansas City's in a bad spot, man. They just
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: had a successful road trip. They went to Toronto and Cleveland,
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: and they won four out of six. Kansas City's been
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: playing decent until they got murdered by Cleveland in the
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: last game here. But this is not a good spot.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, this might be where it ends for Kansas City,
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: you know, All right, you had a good road trip, whatever.
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: They were good in their last homestand. They did sweep
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: the Tigers, but the Tigers look like they're kind of,
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: I don't know, they're packing it in now, but it
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: might be because Kansas City swept them. Kansas City return
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: home spot here should be a distracted spot. I mean,
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: a bad team like Kansas City in a bad spot,
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: never really want to back a team like that. Miami
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: is with a rest disadvantage though Miami did play a
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: divisional series yesterday they're coming in from Washington so I
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: don't really want to back the less rested team in
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: Miami here either Miami's four relief pitchers yesterday they're still
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen though they're number five they're not really
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: that good but they're better than Kansas City who's ranked
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: dead last although I think Kansas City is the second
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: worst bullpen um Miami is the better offense here as well.
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: They're 13th. They haven't been that good recently. Kansas City's 15th,
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: tied with the A's. Kansas City is probably actually better
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: recently offensively, and they are better at home offensively, so
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: there is that. This pitching matchup looks pretty bad, though.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: Tyler Phillips is pitching for Miami. He might not even
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: actually start. So if you're going to play this game,
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: you might just want to play it action. And by
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: the way, that's what I would do with Detroit, Minnesota
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: as well. If you're going to play that, I would
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: pick Meltem a start, but not pick a starter for Minnesota,
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: you know. And then if you're playing Seattle, Boston, I mean,
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox don't have a starter announced. So the
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: only thing you could do is play Wuma start and
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: not pick a starter for the Red Sox if you're
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: playing that game right now. tyler phillips though for miami 3.59
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: era some of this is coming out of the bullpen
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: though 1.37 whip is not that good he's not good
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: on the road at all 5.83 road era so he
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: is definitely fadable on the road he's not going deep
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: into most of his starts i think he's pretty much
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: unimpressive man miami's lost his last four starts none of
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: this is really that good although his era in august
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: was pretty good his command numbers are pretty good I
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: still don't like this though his hit rate is okay
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: on the season his strikeout rate is low though and
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is high so his strikeout walk ratio
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: is not good it's below two which is pretty disgusting
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: and not in a good way strikeout per nine is
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: above seven so it's better than what he's posted in
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: the past Still don't love it. Phillips against the Royals.
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: They're 0 for 6 off him. They have four hitters
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: who have faced him. 0 for 6 with a strikeout
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: and a walk. Not a whole lot to see there, though.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: I still don't really trust Phillips. And, you know, I
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: don't trust Randy Dobnock, who's pitching for Kansas City here.
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: Somehow is maintaining a 1.92 ERA, even though he's had
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: a pretty bad career that hasn't really seen much Major
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: League action at all. But his whip tells you his
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: ERA should be way higher than this. 1.37 whip. Yeah,
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: that's not good. He's been worse at home as well.
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: A 3.22 ERA doesn't seem that bad. But his opponent
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: batting average at home is 3.19. That's not good. He
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: did pitch well. I'll give him credit for that. Last
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: time out it was against Toronto. They're a bad lineup.
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: That was actually a good start from him. But generally
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: he's not been good. Although recently... A couple of recent
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: starts of his he got his walk number down a bit. But...
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: I still don't trust it. His walk number is still
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: really bad on the season. His hit rate is almost
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: one per inning. His walk rate is still pretty bad.
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is low. He doesn't strike guys out.
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: He's definitely still a major ERA regression candidate. His strikeout
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is terrible. It's below two. Strikeout per nine,
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: below six. I mean, none of that is good. His
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: numbers against, what are we talking about here? I already forget.
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: Kansas City and who? Why do I always forget? I
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: never remember who the fuck the other team is when
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: I do this. When it's a new series, it's Miami.
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: Miami's never faced Dobnok before. Whatever, man. I mean, I'm
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: not going to pay that much attention to these small
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: sample sizes. Yeah, there's unfamiliarity there. I don't care. I mean,
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: I think I would play the over in this game.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: Kansas City's more of a hitter-friendly park now that they
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: moved the walls in. Nine and a half is the total.
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, oddsmakers kind of telling you they think it's
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: going to be somewhat high scoring in this one. Neither
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: pitcher is good. Both pitchers are in the bad of
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: their home road splits. One bullpen's really bad with Kansas City.
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: The other bullpen has a lack of rest. I think
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: that's how I would do it. I would take the
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: over in that game. Next game up is one of
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: my plays. Milwaukee and Chicago, which is a TV game,
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: a TBS game. So people can watch this one and
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: it's going to be, it's one of the more, it's
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: one of the better matchups that's going on right now, right?
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's a big divisional series between two good teams.
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: We're going to do something, you know, maybe it's too public,
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: maybe it isn't because the number's really high, but we're
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: going to take this game over 10.5. I know I
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: don't do double-digit totals that much, but I like the
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: over in this one, and obviously this means it's a
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: Wrigley wind-blowing-out game. It's one of those hurricane lines almost. Well,
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: not really. It's not 12.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: 10.5.
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: The one good thing about it is it's under that
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: key number of 11, so if you have a 5-5 tie,
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: you're guaranteed to win this bet. But I like this.
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: I think there are going to be runs on both
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: sides here, man. It was a high-scoring game yesterday, which
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: does worry me. The Cubs walloped the Brewers yesterday, 17-3.
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: I think the Cubs are the more motivated team right
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: now because Milwaukee has a huge... lean on them in
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: the division, but I'm not looking at the side here.
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at the total. I actually think both pitchers
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: might struggle here. It's definitely not an elite pitching matchup
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: in this one. Yes, I know yesterday's game went over,
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: but look at what the Cubs are doing recently. The
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: last four games have all gone over this total. The
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: lowest total that they've had in the last four games
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: was a 12, um, And I mean the total runs
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: scored in the game. So the Cubs have had 12
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: runs or more scored in their last four games. They're
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: having a lot of high-scoring games recently, man. So I'm
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: going to be looking for an over partially for that reason.
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's kind of where I start. The Brewers,
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: their last couple of games have gone over this number,
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: although I know they were playing some lower-scoring games prior
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: to that. But they were playing the Rangers and the Mets.
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, kind of different style here. We're looking at
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: two good bullpens though. I will say that, but the
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: bullpens did see some usage yesterday and Milwaukee is a
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: legit bullpen. Uh, Chicago kind of mediocre Cubs only used
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: to relief pitchers yesterday. Milwaukee also used to, and all
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: the better relievers are available here. So I will say that,
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: but I still think this game goes over. I think
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching is going to struggle here and then
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: you'll see some of the lesser bullpen arms come in again. Um,
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you wanted to avoid the bullpens and
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: go first five over, I guess you could do that,
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: but I still think it's going over either way. And
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: you know me, I think that if starters are bad,
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: I think it cascades into the bullpen performances because usually
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: the worst relievers have to come in because it's kind
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: of an unplanned thing. Milwaukee's a really good bullpen, though.
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: They're number seven. They're better than that. I think they're
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: the third best bullpen, probably. Cubs are okay. They're number
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: 12 in bullpen. Middle of the pack, I would say.
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: Both offenses are good. The Cubs are number one. Their
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: offense is raking right now. And Milwaukee number five. So
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: I like that as far as this handicap. I know
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: you have two decent bullpens here, but you got two
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: questionable starters. You got two very good offenses going at
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: it here. Robert Gasser is pitching for Milwaukee. He's not
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: been good recently. He was putting up good numbers for
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: a while, but he's a guy that hasn't pitched that
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: many innings in his career before. He hasn't thrown that
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: many innings this year, but he's not used to throwing
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: this many innings at all. He's been okay, a 4.59 ERA, 1.3 whip,
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: but he's definitely been bad recently. He's not good on
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: the road, 5.1 road ERA, although he is better at night,
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: so that does worry me a little bit. I don't
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: usually look at the day-night splits, but he just has
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: way more of a sample size at night, though. He
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: was okay last time out against the Mets. But it
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: was against the Mets. His prior three starts, they weren't
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: really that good. He was fairly good against the Dodgers,
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: I guess. So yeah, I guess his last few starts,
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: the home ones have actually been worse, but Whatever, man.
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's still striking out a lot of guys,
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: but he's not going as deep into his outings. He's
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: getting hit too hard here. He's walking too many guys recently.
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: So I think he's not in the greatest form right now.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: His hit rate on the season is still not that good.
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: It's one per inning. His walk rate is fine. His
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is fine. So his strikeout walk ratio and
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine are both all right at three and
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: eight and a half, respectively. That's fine. But he's not
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: good against the Cubs either, and he's not really in
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: good form right now, and he's not as good on
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: the road generally. 20 at-bats here, not a big sample,
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: but they have a. 300 average and. 783 OPS against them.
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: And the Cubs have been the hottest offense in baseball,
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: so I think they will put up some runs here.
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: Matthew Boyd is on the other side for the Cubs.
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: He's got all right numbers, 3.99 ERA, 1.22 WIP. He's
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: a lot worse at home, though, 5.44 home ERA. He
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: pitched well last time out at Arizona, but he was
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: definitely struggling prior to that. He has not really had
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: a good month, and his walk rate's been really high
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: this month, and his strikeout rate's been really low, too,
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: or in the month of August, I should say. A
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: 16-11 strikeout walk ratio, that's not good. That's not going
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: to cut it, man. His hit rate is all right
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: on the season. His walk rate is all right. His
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is pretty low, so he's having some issues here.
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: Strikeout walk ratio is lower than it was the last
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: couple seasons, not really that good, 2.5%. His strikeout per
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: nine is kind of low, too. It's gone down from
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: what it was in his career. 7.1 this year. So
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: Boyd is having some issues, and Milwaukee has had some
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: success against him. An 86 at-bats, 267 average, 825 OPS,
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: 20-9 strikeout walk ratio. Couple all this with the fact
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: that we have what looks like a wind-blowing-out game here.
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: Boyd has kind of allowed a lot of home runs
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: this year. He's not a huge... fly ball pitcher, but
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: on the other side, Gasser, he is a fly ball pitcher.
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: So I think we might get some home runs in
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: this game too. He's given up too many home runs
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: for sure. He's a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher, like
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: more than a two to one fly ball ground ball
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: rate from him. So. I think that helps the case
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: for the over as well here. We're going to do it.
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: The odds makers are telling you this is going to
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: be a high-scoring game. Wind blowing out, questionable pitching here,
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: good offenses. Let's go over the total in this one,
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: even though it is seemingly high at 10.5. But the
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: high totals tend to go over, man, so let's do it.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: And then let me see. What else we got? I'll
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: do one more game, take a break, and then finish
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: it off. finish him. We have Texas in the A's.
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: Texas won easily yesterday, despite being in a return home spot.
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: The A's are bad, dude. Gage Jump, I guess, couldn't
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: hold up yesterday, or maybe it was the A's bullpen
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: that was the problem. I don't even know. I haven't
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: looked at it. Jacob DeGrom apparently pitched well in the
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: game yesterday. Texas has more motivation here, but you're going
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: to have to pay for it, right? They're two games
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: back of the AL West lead here. They're trying to
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs. They're going to be motivated here. The
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: A's have Brady Basso listed as the starter here, but
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: it's JT Ginn's turn in the rotation, so I'm not
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: really sure what the A's are doing here. And they
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: do not have Ginn listed as their pitcher tomorrow, so
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: unless he's hurt, which he's not listed as being hurt,
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: I think JT Ginn is pitching in this game. Maybe
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: Basso's going to open for him or something, but I
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: think you're going to get Ginn in this game, and
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: that changes the game completely. like it goes from being
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game for the A's to Ginn who's actually
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: a solid pitcher for the A's so that completely changes
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: the handicap like we need to know is Ginn actually
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: going to pitch in this game I think he is
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: but I'm not entirely sure about that as far as
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: the bullpen you suggested I mean we know the A's
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: bullpen is awful They used two guys out of the bullpen,
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: but I would never back them. Texas used two as well,
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: but Texas' bullpen has not been good either. They're number 19.
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: The A's bullpen is number 28, but they're the worst bullpen.
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: Let's not kid ourselves here. A's are 15th offensively tied
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: with the Royals. Texas is 19th. Basso, again, he is
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: listed as the starter here, but I'm going to handicap
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: this like Ginn is going to get the majority of
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: the pitching duties here. I think Basso is going to
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: be an opener. I mean, that's kind of been what
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: he's done. He's gone one inning. Uh, basically he pitched
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: two days ago too. So, you know, he's pretty much
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: going to go one inning here and be an opener.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: If you go five games back, it should be JT
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: again here for the A's. And I think it will
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: be maybe with Basso as an opener. Um, It does
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: look like Basso is listed on the board here, but
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure it is going to be Ginn, and
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: he's listed as the A's number one starter in the
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: depth chart. Let's put an opener in front of him.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: Ginn is actually not bad, though. 3.71 ERA, 1.24 whip.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, as far as A's pitchers go, but that's
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: not too bad. He is better on the road, 3.63
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: road ERA, but a really impressive 199 opponent batting average
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: on the road. He's a ground ball pitcher, so he
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: actually doesn't even pitch that poorly in Sacramento either. but
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: he is better on the road as well. He's been
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: mediocre recently, but not too bad. He's at least serviceable,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: I would say. He did just pitch against Texas at
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: home not that long ago, and he gave up four
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: runs in six innings, but he had seven strikeouts, no walks,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: so he actually pitched pretty well in that one. He's
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: got a low hit rate on the season. His walk
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: rate is a bit too high, though. His strikeout rate
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: is kind of low, so none of that is, I mean,
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: the hit rate's good, but the strikeout walk ratio's not good,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: I should say. His strikeout walk ratio has gotten worse
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: this year, but he's actually pitched better this year than
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: he pitched last year. 2.1 strikeout walk ratio is not good, though.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: Strikeout per nine around eight, I mean, that's fine. Ginn
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: against Texas, though, he has been good generally. 87 at-bats,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: 18-3 strikeout walk ratio, 241 average, 692 OPS. So assuming
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: Ginn is pitching here, I'm kind of leaning under in
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: this game somewhat, and I think he must be because
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: the total in this game is 7.5. There's no way
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: it would be 7.5 if the A's had some shitty
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: pitcher going here, right? It seems like they would not
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: do that. Mackenzie Gore is pitching for the Rangers. Mediocre season, 4.4 ERA, 1.28 whip.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: He's been way better at home, though. 2.99 home ERA
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: with a much lower opponent batting average at home. He
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: struggled last time out, but it was on the road
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: against the White Sox. I think he might bounce back
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: at home, though. We had a nice under with him
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: in his last home game against Anaheim. That was a
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: game that really looked like it was going to be
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: low scoring, and it was. He did pitch at the
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: A's the start before that, and he actually wasn't that bad.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: And he picked up a win in that one, even
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: though that was at that horrible A's stadium. So really,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: four of his last five starts have actually been all right,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: although Gore does have walk problems. His hit rate is
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: fine this season, but his walk rate's too high. His
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is good. That's just what he does. He
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: strikes guys out, but he walks guys. His strikeout walk
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: ratio being around three, that's not too bad. Strikeout per nine,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: around 10, that's pretty good. So there are some things
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: to like about Gore. Not his numbers against the A's, though.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: 63 at-bats, 381 average allowed, 990 OPS. That's no good.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: 16 to 8 strikeout walk ratio. So I can't really
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: give you the under in this game either. I was
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: thinking maybe this game would be an under, but we
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: need to know if Ginn is going to pitch, and
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: I think he will. And if Ginn is pitching both pitchers,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: both starting pitchers, or both bulk workload pitchers here, do
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: have the better home road splits here. But Gore, he's
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: got some ugly numbers here, man. I mean, I think
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: there is a case to be made for the A's
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: first five here. I would not back their bullpen, but
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: if we can be sure that Ginn is going to
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: come in in the second inning here and pitch the
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: majority of the first five, there is a case to
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: be made for the A's first five in this one.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: And Texas is obviously a huge favorite, minus 187. So
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: I would not try to play Texas here. If Ginn
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: is not pitching, then I would say the over... is
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: the way to play this game. We don't know, man.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: We've got to figure it out. I don't know how
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: we can even figure that out. But usually I'm pretty
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: good at this, man, at predicting what the pitching is
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: going to look like. So that's what I'm saying. We'll
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: see if I'm right or not, but I think Minnesota
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: will have pre-lit pitching in their game, and I think
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: the A's will have gin pitching in their game, but
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: both of them might come in after an opener. That
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: would be my guess as far as what they're doing here.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: So if you're going to play the A's Texas game,
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: I would pick Gorm a start, and I would not
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: pick a starter for the A's because there is a
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: chance they just swap it out and say, yeah, Ginn
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: is going to start here. So that's what I would say.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: I'll be right back. I'll talk about the rest of
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: these games. I have one more play to give out
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: in here as well. Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: We were on an 0-7 run over the last two
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: days after tonight. It was just complete bullshit. So that's
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: how I'm going to start off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this, man. With the slump continuing,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: two straight losses, not a good day at all, 0-4.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: I just have not had a good season, man. What
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: can this slump... Then I'm on and the slump continues.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: I've reached a new peak, actually. I'm going to burn
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: my Bruins hat, man. I don't know what is going
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: on with the Bruins. March 8th? Is that what it is?
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: I don't even know. It's March 9th, I think. Who
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: even knows, man. I don't know what day it is anymore.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what day it is anymore, man.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: Back with you after the worst day that I could
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: possibly have. Back with you as I always am. Until
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: go well for me. 0-5, the worst month that I've
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: ever had in my 18 years doing this. I don't
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: know what to even tell you about this anymore. The
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: know what I should do at this point other than potentially.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: End it all.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: Okay, the next game is White Sox and Astros, I believe.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: Houston won despite being in a return home spot yesterday.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: I think Houston has a little bit more motivation here
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: because they're in this cluttered AL West, whereas the White
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: Sox have a little bit of a bigger lead in
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: their division. They're by no means out of the water, though,
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: so both teams should be motivated here. As far as
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: the bullpens are concerned, these are both decent bullpens. Houston
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: used four guys out of theirs yesterday. White Sox used two.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: So the White Sox might set up a little bit
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: better out of the bullpen here. They're number 14. Houston's
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: number 13. White Sox have the better ERA. I'll give
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: the White Sox a slight bullpen edge here in this setup.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: White Sox are number nine offensively. Houston number 11. White
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: Sox tied with the Twins. Pretty close matchup. Like I
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: said yesterday, these bullpens are kind of closely matched. The
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: hitting is closely matched. Starting pitching is a little bit
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: difficult to figure out in this game. Sean Burke is
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: getting the start for the White Sox. He's been basically
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: their best pitcher. A 3.32 ERA, 1.15 whip. Not bad.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: He's been good on the road. A 3.05 road ERA.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: Although his opponent batting average is actually slightly higher on
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: the road. Not good recently, though. Like, he's not going
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: deep into, like, half of his starts recently. His walk
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: rate's been way too high. He had eight walks last
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: time out in three innings against Texas. The White Sox
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: have won his last three starts, but he wasn't particularly
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: good in any of them. He was okay at home
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: against the Mets, but the other two starts, pretty bad.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: So I think he's out of form here, man. Like,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: maybe it's just the number of innings has caught up
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: with him, because this is the most innings he's ever thrown.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: He threw a decent amount last year, but this year... Yeah,
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. He's definitely improved this year, but
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: he seems to be kind of tiring out would be
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: my guess here. I think they need to kind of
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: give him some rest here, but they are still trying
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: to make the playoffs here, so they can't really do that.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: They have to find that balance, you know. Maybe they
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: should stagger his starts a little bit more and give
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: him a little bit more rest. I don't know. But
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: pitchers want to be on schedule usually, too. Burke does
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: have a low hit rate on the season. His walk
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: rate is okay. His strikeout rate is high, so mostly
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: pretty good numbers here. Strikeout walk ratio has been good,
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: above three. Strikeout per 9, almost 10, so that's pretty good.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Houston, though, are not good. And 43 at-bats,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: 326 average, 914 OPS, 10-2 strikeout walk ratio. So I
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: don't think I could trust Burke, really, in this one, man.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: And Houston's got Ronel Blanco pitching, Mr. Pintar. I have
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: no idea what we're going to get out of this guy.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: I call him that because I'm pretty sure he was
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: the one that got suspended for rubbing Pintar on his fingers.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: illegal substances. That was two years ago, I want to
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: say now. He's got a 7.71 ERA, 1.46 whip this year. Obviously,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: that's not good. He's been hurt for the majority of
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: the season, though. He's got an 8.1 ERA at home, though.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: Is that good?
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: No.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: No, it is not. I mean, he's been better than
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: this in his career, obviously. He's had some decent seasons.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, really, he had one good season in 2024,
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: but he hasn't really pitched that much otherwise. I think
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: his career just keeps getting derailed by injuries. He was
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: good in 2024, and then 2025 is pretty good before whatever.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: The suspension getting hurt, I don't even remember. I think
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: the suspension actually must have been last year. But I
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: don't know. He hasn't really recovered from it. He's got
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: a low strikeout walk ratio this year. That's not good. 1.7%.
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: His strikeout per nine is also at the lowest that
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: it's been, 7.7. None of that is good. Look at
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: his numbers on the season here. It's a very small sample,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: but his hit rate's mediocre. His walk rate's too high.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is okay. I mean, none of this
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: is really that good. He last pitched in mid-August, and
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: he made three starts in August, and he didn't go
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: deep into any of them, and he was not particularly good.
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been particularly good in any start this season.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: He's only gone five innings once, so he's Not pitching well.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: His numbers against the White Sox are actually fairly good, though.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: 26 career at-bats, 192 average allowed. 737 OPS is a
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: little bit high, though. Murakami and Vargas each have a
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: home run against him. Kind of the usual suspects there,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: I suppose, except for Benintendi. 7-3 strikeout walk ratio here.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: I think there's mostly a case for an over in
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: this game, I would say. I mean, you got Burke
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: struggling down the stretch. Bad matchup numbers. Neither of these
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: pitchers have good current form here. You know what I mean?
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: LeBlanco was maybe hurt again or down in the minors.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: I don't really know, but... Yeah, I think the over
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: is the better way to play this game, if I
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: was going to do anything. It looks like the total
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: is 8.5, which is pretty reasonable. The White Sox are
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: a small road favorite here. Given what the matchup numbers
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: look like, I'd probably just slightly lean towards Houston, maybe
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: in the first five, but I don't love that. I
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: don't really want to pack Blanco, but his matchup numbers
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: are better than Burke's right now, and it might be
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: kind of a sneaky way to play this game, because
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: Burke seems like he's falling out of form, but... Obviously,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: if you look at the season that they've had, Burke
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: has been the way better pitcher. Do what you want
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: with that, but I think the over is probably the
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: better approach in that game. Baltimore at Colorado. This game
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: went way under yesterday. Colorado's played some really low-scoring games recently,
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: although some of them were on the road. But they
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: came back home, and they had a 2-1 loss to
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: Baltimore yesterday. Very low-scoring game. Uh, that handicap was kind
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: of thrown off the biggest Bradish was who I handicapped yesterday.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: He was supposed to start yesterday and they pushed him back.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: So I don't know who started for Baltimore yesterday. Bradish
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: is going to get the start today. It looks like,
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: or tonight. Um, so that if you played that game
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: in any way, if you pick the starters, then your
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: bet just didn't happen. Um, Baltimore used, if you pick Bradish,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you did it like in the morning,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: Baltimore used four relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen is better
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: than Colorado's. Colorado also used four. Baltimore's number 10 in bullpen.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: They're decent. Colorado is 27th. They are not decent. They're indecent.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: They're being exposed to a lot of hitting. Colorado number
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: four offensively. They're the better offense. Baltimore's number 17, tied
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: with the Phillies. Kyle Bradish, he's pitching today, apparently. I
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: handicapped him yesterday, but he's got a 4.03 ERA. 1.41
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: whip is not good, though, and he's not good on
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: the road. 4.5 road ERA with a 3.03 opponent batting average.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: That is not good, and he's been pretty bad in
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: his last couple of starts. He's not pitching well right now.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: Last road start, he got hammered by St. Louis. In St. Louis,
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: that's not good. They're not a good offense. That was
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: a pitcher-friendly park. Now he's got to go pitch in
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: a hitter-friendly ballpark. He's got a bad strikeout walk ratio
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: over the past month, 19 to 10. Strikeout walk ratio
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: with way too many hits allowed, too. He's not pitching
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: well right now. Over the course of the season, his
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: hit rate is okay. His walk rate is definitely too high.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: Strikeout rate is okay. He doesn't allow a lot of
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: fly balls, though, like I said yesterday. The home run
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: rate isn't exactly excellent, but it's okay. So he might
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: pitch okay in the stadium generally because he's not a
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: huge fly ball guy, but his strikeout walk ratio is
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: way down. He's actually had some really good seasons, including
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: last year, but they were kind of limited, although he
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: did have a really good full season in 2023. But
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: he's just not been healthy since then. He's had some
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: issues this season, man, mostly the walks, though, leading to
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: a very low strikeout walk ratio that's barely above two.
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: His strikeout per nine has gone down as well into
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: the eights. But generally, it's been the walks that have
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: been the major issue for him this year. He's got
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: to fix that somehow. Only Tovar has ever faced him
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: in Colorado's lineup. He's 0 for 3 with a strikeout
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: and no walks. I have no idea what you're going
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: to get out of Bradish here, man. I mean, he's
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: not as good on the road. His form is kind
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: of bad, so... I'm kind of leaning against Bradish here.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: Gabriel Hughes is pitching for Colorado. His numbers are not good, 6.61 ERA, 1.45 WIB.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: I think this is his rookie season. He's actually been
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: better at home somehow, 4.18 home ERA. So he's pitching
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: better in Coors Field, and he was actually pitching pretty
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: well in the month of July, and then the month
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: of August went very badly for him. He's got a
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: high hit rate overall, walk rate not very good, strikeout
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: rate not really that good either. So overall, his numbers
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: are just not that good. It seems like he doesn't
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: allow a ton of home runs, though, even though he
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: does have a fly ball skew. It doesn't look like
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: it's that extreme, but it looks like he does not
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: allow a ton of home runs, which I guess helps
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: him at home. But overall, not really good here. Two
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, that's not really good. Strikeout per nine
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: in the sevens is whatever. Baltimore's never faced him before,
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: so he does have an unfamiliarity. edge here if you
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: want to call it that but I don't know I
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: think there are more indicators towards an over in this
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: one than anything else the totals right on that key
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: number of 11 Baltimore is favoring Baltimore technically is not
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: eliminated from the playoffs so they have some motivation here
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: if you want to call it that although Colorado could
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: be in kind of a bounce back spot because they
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: had the return home yesterday and when that doesn't go
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: well a lot of times teams bounce back in the
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: next game this game is really really hard to figure
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: out man I'd probably lean over, but yeah, I don't
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: really have a great feel for this game at all.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: Yankees and Anaheim. I don't know why. Why do I
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: have an NFL tab up? I have no idea. Anaheim
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: was correct for me yesterday. They wound up winning in
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: a blowout, 10-1, but that game was pretty close for
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: a while. Anaheim, actually, no, it wasn't that close by
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: the end of the fifth inning, actually. They were already
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: winning 6-1, so never mind. I thought that it was
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: like 1-0 or something. It was in the third inning,
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: but If you played what I told you to do
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: yesterday with this game, I didn't add it as a play.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: I should have. Urania was awesome in the game yesterday.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: He didn't even walk anybody. Yeah, Urania just out-pitched Elmer
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: by a ton yesterday. Plus, the Yankees in a letdown spot,
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: so I was correct about that game yesterday. But obviously,
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: if you look at the starting pitching in this game,
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: the Yankees have the better pitcher going in this game.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: And after getting embarrassed yesterday against this shitty Angel team,
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: You got to think the Yankees are probably going to
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: bounce back here. However, if you look at the matchup numbers,
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: it's not guaranteed. Now, situation, I think, does favor the Yankees.
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: They do have the better starting pitcher on the mound.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: You really got to pay for it, though. Minus 191.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: It's a low total. For a game with Grayson Rodriguez pitching,
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: the total, being at 7.5, is kind of crazy low.
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: But....
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: Part of that is obviously because Cole's pitching for, uh,
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: the Yankees and because Anaheim's hitting has been bad, really bad.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: And the Yankees hitting has not really been that good. Uh, recently, well,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, recently they've been a little bit better, but
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: like over the last couple of months, the Yankees offense
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: has definitely struggled. Um, I don't know if the, I mean,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know if there's that much of an argument
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: for the under this, maybe there is actually, and the
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: under would be correlated more towards an Anaheim play, but
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: let's look at this game here. Um, Yankees, it was
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: a bad spot yesterday. They were coming off the weekend
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: series against the Red Sox. They looked better than they
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: actually were on the last two games of the Red
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: Sox series. They had to fly cross-country to play Anaheim
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: yesterday with no time off, so the biological clock spot
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: was bad. I should have just added Anaheim to the card, man.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: I should have done it the first five. Yankees used
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: three relief pitchers yesterday. It looks like Luis Gil is back.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: because he pitched in the game. For some reason, they
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: used their closer yesterday, even though they were getting their
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: asses kicked. I don't know what the hell that was.
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: Maybe just to get him some work. The Yankees did. Bednar,
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: I think he's their closer. Anaheim used two guys out
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: of their bullpen, but obviously the Yankees are the better bullpen.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: They're number three in whip, but they have the best
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: bullpen ERA right now. Slightly better than the Red Sox. Anaheim,
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: number 23. Obviously, the Yankees have the better bullpen. Yankees
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: also have the better offense. As much as they've struggled
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: at times, number 14, Anaheim number 29, tied in last
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: place with Seattle and not good at home. So the
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: Yankees have all those edges, and they have Garrett Cole
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: on the mound. Cole's had a good season. Shortened season,
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: but a good one. 3.19 ERA, 1.07 whip. He's been
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: good on the road pretty much. His home road splits
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: are just not really that significant overall. He's been pitching
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: well recently. Good command numbers over the month of August.
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: Not allowing a lot of runs in here. Three or
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: fewer earned runs in every start over the last two months.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: And not allowing that many hits either. Pretty much the
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: same over the course of the season. Pretty low hit rate.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: Walk rate actually really low. He's been really good in
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: that department. Good command. High strikeouts as well. So strikeout
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: per nine is good. It's at five. That's a good number.
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: And strikeout walk ratio, I mean, is five. Strikeout per
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: nine is over nine. So yeah, he's pitching well. His
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: numbers against Anaheim, though, are actually not good. They have
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: five hitters who have faced him, and all of them
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: have done some damage against him. Except for Josh Lowe, apparently. Well,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: I guess Siri does have a couple home runs, but
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: not a good average. But these other three guys, Darnot, Frazier,
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: and Trout, all have good numbers against him. 69 career bats,
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: 21 strikeouts. That's a lot of strikeouts. Six walks. But
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: they have a 275 average and 812 OPS. Now... It's
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: a small amount of batters that have faced him, right?
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: So I wouldn't put that much weight into this, but
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: Cole does have some iffy numbers against Anaheim here. Grayson Rodriguez,
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: especially for Anaheim, not a good season for him. 6.03 ERA, 1.52 whip.
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: He's trying to make a comeback from... having his career
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: totally derailed by injuries. He's been really bad at home, 7.78
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: home ERA, with a. 323 up on a batting average.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: That's not good, although he's actually been a little bit
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: better over the past month, actually. In August, he had
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: an ERA that was sub-3, which is pretty good, although
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: his walk number was kind of still an issue. But
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: his recent starts have definitely been better, so he is
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: kind of trending in the right direction, at least. Three
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: or fewer earned runs allowed in his last six starts.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: He's got a high hit rate on the season. His
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: walk rate's not really that good either. His strikeout rate
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: is okay. But he was able to pitch fairly well
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: back when he was on Baltimore in 2024. So I
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: think he is better than what we're seeing here with
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: these numbers. And he is starting to pitch better here
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: as he kind of re-acclimates to Major League Baseball. So
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's as bad as his numbers make
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: him look. His strikeout walk ratio is not really good
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: though still. Strikeout per nine is a bit low as well.
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: Strikeout walk ratio in the low twos. Strikeout per nine
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: in the eights. Lower than what he did in the past,
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: but he is actually good against the Yankees. They have
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: 20 at-bats against them, six hitters. It's a small sample,
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: but they only have one extra base hit. No, sorry, two.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: And they're both from Austin Wells, a double and a
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: home run there. Five-to-one string of walk ratio, 150 average,
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: 540 OPS. So Grayson Rodriguez actually has the better matchup
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: numbers here. I mean, if you wanted to take Anaheim
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: first five again... There's your argument for it. The argument
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: is the matchup numbers, and that there's probably not as
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: big of a gap between these two pitchers as people
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: might think, although Cole is definitely still the better pitcher,
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: and G-Rod has really struggled at home, so I would
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: not want to do it, but the price is really
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: high on the Yankees, so if you're going to grab
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: Anaheim first five, you could take a half run run
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: line in the first five or something. I would definitely
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: avoid their bullpen, but That is an angle that I might...
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: I think I probably do agree with it. Anaheim, first five.
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: Yesterday's was a lot better, though. It was a better
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: situational spot for it. So, of course, if I didn't
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: even play it yesterday, I'm not going to do it today, either.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: The other way that I would probably look at this
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: game is possibly the over, maybe? Even though that's uncorrelated, really,
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: with Anaheim, but... I don't know. Cole's matchup numbers aren't
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: that good. I don't think I really trust Rodriguez. I
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: don't know. To me, it seems a little bit more overish.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: For the total, it's 7.5. Oddsmakers kind of telling you
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: they think it's going to be a low-scoring game. Speaking
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: of which... The final play, I found a first 5
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: under that was a number that I liked right on
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: this 4 at minus 110. This was at... It was
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: one of the bigger— I think it might have been at DK, actually.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: This is Philadelphia, Arizona. We're going to take this thing
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: under in the first five. I don't really love these bullpens,
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: but I'm going to trust the start of pitching here,
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: even though one of these pitchers is hated by the
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: advanced analytics guys, but he continues to pitch well, and
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: he's got the matchup numbers that support this. I don't
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: like the bullpens, so I'm going to take them out.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: Yesterday's game went way under, by the way. Aaron Nola
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: seems like he's definitely back, and— Fott, I think, continued
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: to pitch pretty well on the other side too. I
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: should have done that. I liked the under in the
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: game yesterday. I was correct about that. The D-backs used
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: three relief pitchers yesterday. But I'm going to avoid their
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: bullpen anyway. I think they're a mediocre bullpen. And Phillies'
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: bullpen I really don't like. So I want to avoid them.
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: They used a bunch of guys. They used five guys
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen, including Duran, their closer. So I
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: don't want to deal with that. So yeah, I believe
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: Philly won the game yesterday, right? It was like 2-1. Yeah, 2-1. Nola, again,
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: I think had a good start. I think Fott also did.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: I don't really have anything on the side here. Arizona,
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, both of these teams are motivated. This is
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: a wild card battle here. Arizona, I think, is slightly
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: behind Philly, but I think both of these teams are
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 2: going to show up motivated. The bullpens, Philly number 18,
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: but their ERA is kind of bad, so I don't
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: really want them. D-backs are number nine, but their ERA
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: is above four as well. So these bullpens are ranked
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: by whip. I think this ranking system overrates both bullpens
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: a little bit. I'll avoid them here, especially with Philly
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: using a bunch of guys yesterday. Arizona's been better offensively recently,
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: but they're still 20th, so they haven't really been the
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: greatest offense. They did get Marte back, and he got booed.
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: And I think rightfully so, dude. I mean, Marte is
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: completely soft. Like he just randomly will just quit and
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: take days off. Like what the fuck is up with
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: this guy? Yeah, he sucks. He's way too soft, but
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: he is back for Arizona. And then the Phillies are
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: number 17 offensively tied with the Orioles, but they're worst
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: on the road. Although this is a more hitter friendly ballpark,
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: but the odds makers have a seven and a half
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: on this game. So they're telling you this is a,
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: Low scoring game expected here. Jesus Lizardo is pitching for Philly.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: You know I like him. I think he's good. 3.09 ERA, 1.12.
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: He's been excellent on the road. 7.9 road ERA. So
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: the home road splits do favor him here. He pitched
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: really well last time out on the road at Seattle.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: He's been throwing over 100 pitches in like every outing.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: So I'm not really too concerned by the pitch count here.
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: I mean he's just going out there and doing it.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 2: He's used to it at this point. But yeah, he
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: after Wu was really bad early in the game or
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: Schwarber I guess I think it was Schwarber just got
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: to Wu in the game but Luzardo like the sixth
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: inning of that game he's in good form and he's
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: got a ridiculous 49 to 46 to 9 strikeout walk
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: ratio over the past month Philly won all five of
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: those games in August he had a 1.31 ERA in
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: that month here he's got a low hit rate on
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: the season his walk rate's okay his strikeout rate is
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: very high So strikeout walk ratio is still good. It's
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: above four.
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 2: Let somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: hold on, not tonight Not now Hold on, hold on
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: Let me pull you out That bad luck fights hard
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: But it don't get the crown Hold on, hold on
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: Stay with me now Hold on, hold on You're still
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: here now guitar solo