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Bonus Episode - Calculated Risk: CFB By The Numbers · Buckeyes TomOrrow Morning

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Hey guys, it's tom We will be back with another episode of the Buckeyes
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Tomorrow Morning podcast. Coming up a little later on Friday night, Tony Gerdaman
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and I will be previewing this weekend's games. But before we get to that,
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I wanted to share one of my favorite new podcasts with you. It
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is by Tyler Shumaker, who you probably remember from several previous appearances on Buckeyes
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Tomorrow Morning, and also Kelly Ford, and they do a podcast called Calculated
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Risk CFB by the Numbers. They both have their own independent rating systems.
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With college football betting and sports betting now being legal in the state of Ohio,
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I'm going to guess there are going to be more people in the audience
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putting on a few bucks on games here and there. These two guys both
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go about that in a very mathematical and methodical kind of way, and I
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think that's going to be a really interesting listen to folks. If you want
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to bet on games, this might be a good listen for you. If
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you don't want to bet on games, this might be a really interesting way
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just to sort of have a better sense for what to expect coming up.
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In most weeks on the college football schedule this year. I really enjoy this
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schedule. I am subscribed to this podcast. I've listened to every episode they've
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done so far. I think you're going to enjoy it well as well.
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So here is the most recent episode of Calculated Risk CFB by the Numbers.
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If you enjoy it, just search Calculated Risk on whatever your podcast platform of
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choices and make sure you are subscribed. Leave. They may five star rating
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as well. I know I already have, so without further ado, here's
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Kelly Ford and Tyler's Shoemaker and Calculated Risk CFB by the Numbers. Welcome back
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to Calculated Risk CFB by the Numbers. I am Tyler Shoemaker. He's Kelly
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Ford, and we are back ready to preview week one. We did our
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week zero recap on Monday for recording here late Wednesday night. Looking ahead,
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we've got a full slate Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
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I can't wait, going to be just I'm not going to leave my couch
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for the next seven this. Kelly, how's it going? Are you?
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How excited are you for this sub bis slate we've got coming up? It's
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going great. Tyler, I'm excited to be here talking about these great games
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we've got. Like you said, it's really a festival in week one.
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You start on Thursday, you don't end until Monday. It's the only time
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all regular season that we have a week like this. It's a lot for
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those of us who are talking about games, writing about games, making power
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ratings, putting out graphics. It's a lot. But this is exactly what
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we train for. This is what we're looking forward to all summer. So
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I'm enjoying it. The hustle and bustle, it's crazy, it's fun.
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But now we get to talk some college football games, which that's what this
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is all about. We get to see these teams in action. We get
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to get some real in season data, so much more fun to play with,
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in my opinion, in the preseason stuff. This is what it's all
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about. I cannot wait, Tyler, It's gonna be great. Yep,
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can't wait. So let's kick it off here with the biggest game of the
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weekend, the only game of the weekend that features I don't know about you,
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but features two top ten teams in my ratings, and that's LSU and
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Florida State. Playing on a neutral field on Sunday night. I've got LSU
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ranked fifth in the country, Florida State ranked eighth. LSU's fourteenth on offense
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and seventh on defense for me, whereas Florida State is ninth on offense and
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twentieth on defense. So both both pretty balanced, both really good on both
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sides of the ball. Should mention the line on this game currently LSU minus
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two and a half. It's pretty much been two two and a half all
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summer, not much movement there. With the over under a fifty six and
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a half. I actually project this LSU minus one and a half ish like
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one point seven with a total of fifty six. I'm right on the number
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there. On the total, I give LSU a fifty two percent chance to
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win. This estimated scores about twenty nine twenty seven, and just kind of
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some ramifications that we're looking at here for these teams. So right now,
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I've got LSU projected at nine point six wins on the season, but with
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a win in this game that bumps up to ten point one, but with
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a loss takes them down to nine point one on the season. So I
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mean that's a big difference, especially when you're talking about potentially competing for the
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playoff. And on the other side, I've got Florida State projected just over
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ten wins at ten point zero seven, but if they win this, that
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goes up to ten point five nine, which then would make their most likely
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record this year eleven and one, which you know has huge CFP implications already
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here in week in Week one, so a lot on the line here in
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this game one for these teams. Kelly, what do you what do your
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numbers say about this? Yeah, it's my number one game of the week.
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It's got a watchability score of ninety six point six. So for me,
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I'm looking at what's the projected quality, average quality of the teams or
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average kateboard ratings, and what's the projected competitive competitiveness of the game, what's
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the projected k forward spread That then gets mashed together into kind of a formula
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and it spits out at number zero to one, ninety six point six,
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number one game in week one, top five game all year. I'm very
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much looking forward to this game. My numbers actually have LSU minus four Tyler,
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so I'm a little bit more bullish on the Tigers than you. It's
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a sixty one percent win expectancy for me, I have LSU powered at number
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five as well, but the difference from me Florida State powered at number eleven.
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You said it's the top ten matchup for you. Florida State was my
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number ten team in the preseason last week, Notre Dame. Given what they
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did to Navy and impressive fashion that they played that game, they actually just
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barely passed Florida State, and so now Florida State has bumped down to number
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eleven. For me. It's a very close matchup on both sides of the
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ball, but I do give LSU just the slightest of edges in both the
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most even matchup here for me, ls use number fourteen defense against Florida State's
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number seventeen offense. On the other side of the ball, LSUS offense number
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ten going up against Florida States defense, which is number nineteen, So all
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four of these units are top twenty units. Again, LSUS number five,
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Florida States number eleven. This is the marquee matchup of the week and LSU
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is gonna have revenge on their mind following last years twenty three twenty four defeat
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to the Knowles in New Orleans. I was at LSUS backyard. Well this
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year it's in Florida States Backyard in Orlando. Actually wrote about this game for
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the Lions dot Com this week, so I go into much more in depth
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in that article. If you're interested, go check that out. But to
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recap this one, I've got LSU minus four at this neutral site in Orlando.
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That equates to a sixty one percent win expectancy four the Tigers. Yeah,
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it's funny because I actually had LSU minus four in my second to last
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round of number of updates, and then when I when I did the final
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numbers, it shortened a little bit to LSU minus one and a half.
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So definitely can can understand where you're coming from. We both like LSU to
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win, ever so slightly. There. Moving on Thursday night game, big
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time game with a lot of potential variants here due to some injury news,
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and that's you know, Utah playing at home against Florida. Florida, a
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team that you and I have talked about on this show that our numbers are
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kind of higher on relative to kind of the general perception. I think I
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think years ended up being just a tad bit higher than mine on the final
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run through there. But we're both I think, still higher than than most
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on Florida. Both are high on Utah I think. And you know,
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obviously the biggest thing here the news announced today that came Rising is not expected
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to play for Utah. But one thing I do want to throw out,
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and this is just from a game expectation standpoint, which is, you know,
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our main goal here, but also if you're looking to bet this game,
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one thing that that I've really noticed over the years and that I really
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have taken note of, is when you have a key, key injury like
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this to a quarterback in particular, the market just runs to bet the other
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side because like, oh, there's no way that that team's gonna win without
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their starting quarterback. But one that rarely is true because the oddsmakers adjust obviously,
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And two, especially in this particular situation, the guy that's going to
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be starting, Barnes, has a start under his belt at Utah. They've
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had nine months to prepare for this. I don't this is not like a
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Week seven game where came Rising got hurt the previous week and they're having to
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scramble to get a guy in there. The guy that's going to be playing,
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has experienced, has had a ton of time to get ready, so
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I don't think it's going to make as much of a differences as a lot
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of people think. So I wanted to put that note out there. In
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terms of the numbers, Utah's number fourteen power rated for me, Florida number
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thirty two Utah on offense, I've got them fifteenth and sixty fifth on defense,
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which is actually lower than I probably would have instinctively thought. But I've
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got Florida with the number twenty eight offense and the number fifty eight defense.
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So I project this game at Utah minus nine and a half. Obviously that's
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assuming full strength. There's no scientific way to do this, but kind of
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my personal adjustment on that would probably be about three and a half four points
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for Rising being out, So again not nearly as much as the market,
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because the market has moved to to four four and a half as we sit
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here on Wednesday night, and I project that total at fifty seven and a
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half. It's currently sitting at forty four. I tweeted earlier today. If
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that total touch is forty two, I'm gonna be obligated to bet it because
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that's just a huge discrepancy. So to summarize, Utah has a seventy six
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percent chance to win according to my numbers projected score thirty three, twenty four.
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And then in terms of ramifications on their season outlook and how this game
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could could impact that, I project Utah at eight point nine wins on the
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season. If they win this, that barely goes up to nine point one
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with the loss goes down to eight point one. But Florida, I think
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this game probably means more to Florida's season outlook than than Utah's because I project
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them at five point eight wins, but with a win that goes up to
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six point five, which you know would make their most likely record Bowl eligible.
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So otherwise they're going to be kind of flirting with that with that six
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and six record and potentially missing Bowl eligibility. So again, another early season
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game here that has long term ramifications, no doubt, and my numbers,
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Tyler, I appreciate that note at the beginning. I think that's important too,
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because let me get to my My numbers have Utah minus seven and a
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half assuming a healthy Cam Rising, and I've said that a couple of times
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now, in Florida fans keep getting in my mention. It's not in a
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bad way. They're just like, Okay, well wait Rising's out, so
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what does that mean? Like where are we now? And I almost feel
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like they're expecting me to say, oh, well now, I like Florida,
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Like now here we go. Gators like guys a quarterback. While they're
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important, it is important. It's the most important position all of team sports.
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That's regardless of level. We know that to be true. Cam Rising
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is not worth seven and a half points like I mean, he's worth a
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couple of points, like you said, he's not worth seven and a half.
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So if I'm telling you who I think my numbers are going to project
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to win the game, outright, I'm not talking about the spread again,
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I don't do that. I know lots of what a lot of people care
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about, Tyler. I'll let you talk about that all day on this show,
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and I'll not in agreement with what my numbers say too. Or I'll
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shake my head and say I'm not so fast for my numbers. But for
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me, I'm more concern about who's gonna this game out right. That's just
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how I'm viewing college football. I think people know that by this point,
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I'm still picking Utah to win this game, even if I'm not saying now
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by seven and a half points. Utah's power rated number fifteen. Overall.
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They have the nation's number twelve projected offense with a healthy came rising. I
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know they don't. That's good enough for only fourth best in the PAC twelve.
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Thalily, number twelve nationally is fourth best in the PAC twelve. On
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the offensive side. That conference is loaded at quarterback and they're loaded on offense.
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Here's what's interesting too. They have the projected number twenty two defense in
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the nation. That's number one in the PAC twelve. So you have a
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number twelve offense is fourth best in your conference. Twenty two defense still really
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good, but you know ten spots lower number one in your conference. That
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just goes to show you what the PAC twelve is really all about this year,
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and that is the quarterbacks. That is the offense is So I hate
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an injury right out of the gate for for a high profile quarterback, but
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for Florida Power rated twenty five. You said, you said you and I
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probably a little bit higher than the most out there. I agree, And
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you said they think you're thirty two. I've got them twenty five. Yeah,
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so I'm really up there. I know it. They could be my
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outlier this year. Number twenty three projected offense, number forty six projected defense.
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So I expect the very even matchup between the Florida offense and the Utah
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defense. The difference for me in this game that Utah offense number twelve.
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Again, even without Cam Rising. Maybe you say, okay, they're not
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number twelve, They're still top twenty without Cam Rising against a number forty six
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Florida defense. So you know, even if he doesn't play, which he's
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now not, we know that it came out today. This game being in
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Salt Lake City could ultimately be the difference from a scheduling perspective. I like
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to look, you know, forward and back, and the farther we get
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into the year, we'll be able to look back. Obviously, can't look
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back for either these two teams for games this year. This is the first
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one. Florida's at home against mcneas next week. There's nothing to be concerned
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about there. Their focus is squarely on the utes. Utah though I'm not
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saying they're overlooking Florida. I don't think they are, and I'll get to
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why, but they have to travel to Baylor next week, so the Utes
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need to be careful not to get caught peeking forward at all in that game,
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because if they do, the Florida's definitely talented enough that they could catch
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him here after a whole summer to prepare. I always say the more time
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the team has to prepare, the teams have to prepare, the more it
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favors the underdog. Florida's the underdog year. They've had all summer to prepare.
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I know their travel got altered a little bit by the hurricane. Hopefully
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everyone down in Florida is doing all right, but they had to get out
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of there a little bit earlier, so they've got that going on. I
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still think Utah's focused on this game, though, because last year still rings
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for them, just like LSU is still stung from last year against that floora
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st eight team Utah twenty six twenty nine defeat in Gainesville. So to recap,
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my numbers have Utah minus seven and a half at home. That's with
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a healthy camera rising. That equates to a seventy percent win expectancy for the
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Utes even without camera rising, it's not gonna be seventy percent. I still
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expect Utah to get the job done. I think being in Salt Lake is
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an absolute huge advantage for that team in this game. Yep. Absolutely,
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And moving right along to our next marquee game of the weekend. You know,
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closer to my neck of the woods down here, this is North Carolina
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and South Carolina playing in neutral site in Charlotte. You know, South Carolina
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was a team I honestly kind of expected my numbers to be a little higher
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on this year than they are. I've still got them, how rated thirty
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six in the country. North Carolina's twenty fifth, and I think North Carolina
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is a team that I'm probably not quite as high on as kind of the
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general consensus I do. I do love Greg May, I mean, he's
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fantastic. Their offense is great, but you know, their offense is ranked
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fifteenth in the country for me, but their defense is sixty fifth. And
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then on the other side, you've got South Carolina with the twenty eight twenty
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eighth ranked offense and the fifty eighth defense. So two pretty good offenses,
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two pretty bad defenses by my numbers. Going out here in this game,
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I project UNC minus two. The line is two and at UNC minus two
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and a half, so pretty much in lock step with the market. Here,
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I project a total of sixty two and a half. The over under
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currently sits at sixty four and a half. So I've got North Carolina with
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a fifty three percent chance to win this game. Projected score is about thirty
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two to thirty. And then in terms of impact on the season win totals
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here, I've got North Carolina had about eight point four currently, if they
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win that that goes up to eight point eight. Whereas South Carolina again another
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game here with potential you know, bowl ramifications. I've got South Carolina projected
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at only six point three wins this year, but with a win, that
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goes up to six point eight. So again, you hate to say,
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you know, a Week one game is a must win for a team,
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but South Carolina wants to make a bowl this year, like this is the
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game they kind of need. Like, Kelly, what are your numbers say
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about this one? I agree with you. I don't want to overstate the
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importance of one game. However, with it being the first game of the
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year, in these big ones, these ones, we're talking about you don't
15:33
want to take an l right out of the gate. I mean, these
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teams have big aspirations and you're you're a little bit behind the eight ball.
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If you lose in week one, you're fighting an uphill battle. It's hard
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enough to win in college football. If you're starting behind the eight ball and
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an O and one record, it's gonna get even harder and people get tight
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and coaches get on the hot seat all that stuff. So I agree with
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you. Let's not over emphasize the importance. But these games we're talking about,
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these are important, Tyler. I totally forgot you were down there in
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southeast said my neck of the woods. You always had the Ohio state background.
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I know, you know, you got the state fandom, and I'm
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like the students in Columbus, right, I totally forgot, dude. I'm
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on Weekly I'm on Weekly Radio on Wednesdays with Mark Ryan on the fan up
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state down there. Uh yeah, I'm right there in that market, dude.
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It's awesome. That's awesome. Yeah. South Carolina fans hate me because
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my numbers are never saying good to things about them comes and fans like me
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pretty pretty good, I think because I'm typically the numbers have liked them over
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the the you know, the last couple of years. South Carolina maybe not
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so much, even though they're winning a lot of games. Okay, back
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to this game, uh, I have This is the number three game of
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the week for me, behind the two we've already talked about. This is
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a number one game in the primetime window on Saturday. It's gonna have the
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main screen in my in my basement setup that I'm looking at right here over
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the computer. I'm very excited. I love rivalry games. This is what
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makes college football so special. My only complaint is it's it's at a neutral
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site. I get it. I'm not I'm not gonna colain too much because
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we're getting a great game. I wish it was, you know, a
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home and home on the campuses here, but it's okay, we're playing this
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one in Charlotte. I have North Carolina minus three. Again. South Carolina
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fans don't like me already. What's what else could happen here? It's a
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fifty eight percent win expectancy for North Carolina. It's a toss up game.
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I tried to say this on Radio two. I'm like, I would not
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be surprised. If South Carolina one, it's a forty two percent chance that
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they do win. Four at the ten times you're gonna win this game.
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They see that plus number and they think he hates me. I didn't deal
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with it. North Carolina's power rated number twenty three, South Carolina power rade
17:14
number thirty six. For me, both these teams are are similar. They
17:18
have good, high powered offenses and honestly an average defense. Very little separates
17:23
these defenses. For me, I have South Carolina number sixty four nationally and
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North Carolina projected number sixty eight nationally. The difference for me in this game
17:30
then, is South Carolina's offense projecting to be just a little bit better.
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Excuse me, North Carolina's offense proa be just a little bit better number fourteen
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nationally again. Drake May, Heisman Trophy contender last year, had a great
17:42
season until the offensive line kind of fell apart, couldn't keep him up right,
17:47
and then the season got off the rails. South Carolina's offense, on
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the other hand, number twenty four nationally again. Scheduling note worth mentioning North
17:56
Carolina welcomes app State to Chapel Hill next week. We all remember the sixty
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three sixty one barn burner in boone last year. So the tar Heels listen,
18:07
this is a rivalry game against South Carolina. North Carolina, South Carolina.
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I'm not suggesting they're not going to be up for it. They will.
18:15
I'm just cautioning against anybody looking ahead. I really don't think the players
18:18
or the coaching staff will. You might have a fan or two that's like,
18:21
yeah, but what about that app state game next week. Don't look
18:23
ahead because if you do, South Carolina will. They are good enough and
18:26
they will beat you in this game. I'm not that worried about it,
18:30
but it's worth mentioning because last year's game was so electric in boone. To
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recap North Carolina minus three in this neutralclight game. It's in Charlotte, in
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your neck of the woods. As we talked about fifty eight percent win expectancy
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for the tar Heels, yes, we're pretty pretty in lock step on that.
18:45
I mean even in terms of our rankings on both sides of the ball.
18:48
We're pretty much pretty much in lock step on on how our numbers see
18:52
these teams. So should be should be a great game, by by all
18:56
accounts, moving on again, another another team from from down here, and
19:00
this is really really more my neck of the woods. Clemson goes to Duke
19:06
on Labor Day night, and this is a game. You know, if
19:11
you would have told someone three years ago that Clemson's going to open the season
19:15
against Duke and the line's only going to be thirteen, they probably would have
19:18
fell out of their chair. But here we sit, the line is Clemson
19:22
minus thirteen at Duke. Clemson is my number twelve team. Duke is my
19:26
number seventy team in the in the country. And I do acknowledge that I'm
19:32
probably lower on Duke than a lot of people, especially after you know,
19:34
they had a great season last year, but when you really kind of look
19:37
at it, the wins they have like it didn't the numbers didn't, didn't
19:41
quite love them going into this year. But I've got Clemson number fifteen on
19:45
offense, and that's you know, going to be a jump for them from
19:48
from where they've been. And if they can get to that and even get
19:52
to the next level, I think they can definitely get back to the CFP
19:55
this year. I've got them. Oh you know what, I just realized.
20:03
I my defensive numbers for them are wrong, so all good dude,
20:11
Hey, let me hop in, let me let me go through mine,
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and you can. I'm the back end. You can figure out what you're
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looking at over there, because yeah, I do want to talk about this
20:17
a little bit already. You've got you said you have Clemson number twelve and
20:21
Dupe number seventy. I'll get to my numbers here in a second. I'm
20:23
very curious because they're different than your numbers. I'm very curious to see what
20:26
Clemson looks like with Kate Klubnick at the home from the get go. I'm
20:30
sure the fans down there, kind of in the upstate where you are,
20:33
would have liked to have seen him earlier last year. I was pretty vocal
20:37
about that. I think he should have been given the reins earlier. So
20:40
we'll never know, but I think things could have turned out differently for Clemson
20:42
last season if he would have gotten control of that team a little bit earlier
20:45
in the year. I have the Tiger's favorite in all twelve regular season games,
20:49
with a conference best sixty three percent chance to reach the ACC Championship game.
20:55
I have Clemson minus thirteen and a half. I know you said,
20:57
it's minus thirteen. I have at minus thirteen and a half, so right
21:00
out er with Vegas eighty three percent win expectancy. I have the Tiger's power
21:03
right at number seven nationally, so I'm a little bit higher than than you.
21:07
But here's the bigger difference. I have Duke number fifty, so I
21:11
significantly higher on Duke than you at this point, Tyler will see how those
21:15
numbers probably converge towards the middle maybe as we get going. This is strength
21:18
on strength for me, but I'm still projecting a mismatch on both sides of
21:22
the ball, with the difference between the opposing units being about the same on
21:26
both sides. I have Clemson's offense number eighteen. I think they should be
21:30
able to put up some points against the Duke defense that I have number fifty
21:33
five. That's where my Duke defense numbers are in the matchup of strengths.
21:37
Then on the other side, clemson number eight defense projected best in the ACC.
21:41
I fully expect them to be able to slow down a Duke offense that
21:44
I have currently projected number forty four in the nation. Duke does have two
21:48
advantages, though this game is in Durham and it's in Week one. I
21:52
talked about it just a second ago. The longer that the underdog has to
21:56
prepare, the more it favors that team in the end. Do you think
22:00
Clemson is just too good to recap? Clemson minus thirteen and a half on
22:03
the road with an eighty three percent win expectancy for the Tigers? Did I
22:07
stall long enough? You got those numbers? Yeah? I do. I
22:11
do apologize. I apparently had a copy and paste issue where Clemson and Duke
22:17
were getting North Carolina and South Carolina's ratings. So we don't we don't want
22:21
that. We want to be accurate on this show. So going back to
22:23
my numbers, I have Clemson number twelve in the country, Duke number seventy.
22:26
Clemson's number twenty seven on offense and number sixteen on defense, whereas Duke
22:32
is sixty sixth on offense and sixty eight on defense. So you know,
22:37
a huge advantage on both sides of the ball for Clemson. I project this
22:40
Clemson minus fifteen and a half with a total of about fifty three and a
22:42
half, So that translates to about an eighty seven percent win probability for Clemson.
22:48
Score somewhere in the neighborhood of thirty five to nineteen. And then in
22:52
terms of their you know, how this game could impact their seasons. I
22:56
don't know that there's necessarily a huge ramification for Clemson here in terms of their
23:00
season win total because they're they're such a high probability they win this game.
23:04
Anyway, they would go from nine point five projected wins to nine point six
23:08
essentially, but Duke could go from five point one to basically six, which
23:14
again bowl implications here early on. You know, if Duke loses this game,
23:18
it's going to be an uphill battle to get those six wins to be
23:21
Bowl eligible. So again another you know, Week one game that could could
23:26
have ramifications for whether a team's Bowl eligible or not, no doubt, yep,
23:30
I get it, and I think it's interesting, Tyler. I like
23:33
that you do the you know, if you win, your win total is
23:36
not projected this, if you lose it to this, you know, all
23:37
else equal. Roughly speaking, you could just you take the win expectancy and
23:41
if a team is currently at you know, five point five expected wins on
23:45
the year with a seventy percent win expectancy, in this game, and they
23:48
actually win it. Well, now it's going to five point eight because you
23:49
just picked up an extra point three. The power enage are gonna change,
23:53
so that's gonna change your projections before. But that's kind of a rough estimate
23:56
for people to kind of wrap their head around. As you're saying these numbers,
23:59
you can kind of think about it that way again, the numbers get
24:02
changed and updated and that and their opponents get updated, and their opponents opponents
24:04
get updated, and it's just a cascading effect. Those of us who are
24:07
in the power eating world, we know it all too well. You can
24:10
get kind of in one of those inception type deals. But that's kind of
24:12
that that is, you know, if you're looking at you know, my
24:15
graphics, you're listening to Tyler and you look at the win expectancy or you
24:18
listen to that and you think, okay, if they're able to pull off
24:21
this win. Right now, they're projected with an eighty percent chance to win.
24:22
If they win it, you can bump their projected win total in the
24:26
year by point two. If they lose it, it goes down by point
24:29
eight, right because you were expecting point eight wins and they got zero.
24:33
So those favorites, it's much more detrimental when they lose a game that they're
24:36
a favorite in than when they actually win the game you're supposed to win.
24:38
And conversely, when you're an underdog, when you win, you really jump
24:42
that thing up because you were at under point five wins and now you've just
24:45
gotten a full one, as opposed to you know, if you're an underdog
24:48
with a ten percent chance and you lose, okay, you've lost point one
24:51
from your expected win total. So I love what you're doing there. I'm
24:55
trying to help people conceptualize it another way that might that's how mind bring kind
24:57
of goes. But I think that's very a way to sum up kind of
25:00
what's online, what's on the line, what's at stake for these teams in
25:03
these games. Yeah, and like you said, like you know, the
25:07
rest of the variables will will change your power rating, will change your opponents,
25:10
so all that. But you know, just as kind of an easy
25:12
shorthand snapshot of like how what what ramifications this one game could have, you
25:18
know, based on the current projections, I think that's I think it's a
25:21
good way to look at it and help help fans, you know, kind
25:23
of contextualize it. So that's it for our main slate for the marquee matchups.
25:30
A few other games here that we did want to just touch on call
25:33
out and and kind of give you guys our numbers that you may be curious
25:37
about. First one to Lane hosting South Alabama. I've got to lane as
25:44
my number twenty nine team in the country. South Alabama number forty three.
25:48
I project that game to lane minus five and a half with a total of
25:51
fifty four. Kelly, what you got on that game? Yeah, you're
25:53
You're much higher on both these teams. I have two lane number forty four
25:56
and nationally that is the best in the G five. South Alba I'm number
26:00
sixty nine nationally, one of the best in the Sun Belt West. I
26:03
fully expect them to be competing with Troy for that Sun Belt West title.
26:07
I have two lane minus nine. That's a seventy four percent win expectancy.
26:11
Two lane's a favorite in eleven out of twelve games, the only one this
26:14
year they're not. Week two. Ole Miss comes to town. That'll be
26:17
a fun one for sure, But they can't look ahead because South Albama is
26:19
good enough. They can go into Tulane and get this win if they're not
26:23
focused on it, but I think they will to Lane minus nine seventy four
26:26
percent win probability, all right. And then another game with a new Power
26:33
five team playing against a G five team. We've got Houston hosting UTSA.
26:37
I've got Houston is my number thirty nine team UTSA, as we talked about
26:41
before, my number twenty four team. I project this UTSA minus one.
26:45
The line has been all over the place. It's been from UTSA minus two
26:48
to Houston minus two and now back to UTSA is a favorite, which is
26:52
about right and is kind of in lockstep with with my numbers here. UTSA
26:56
minus one with a total of sixty three and a half is my projection on
26:59
the game. Yep, I'm right there with you. I actually have you
27:02
TSA as the better team. I don't have him as high as you in
27:04
the power ratings as we've talked about, but I have UTSA number fifty four.
27:07
I think that's more than fair. I can't wait to see how this
27:10
team plays out and we can compare notes on this team. You could be
27:12
right and I could be looking silly. I just that you are very high
27:15
on them. I'm curiously how it plays out. I have utsa fifty four.
27:18
I have Houston number sixty one, but this game is at Houston,
27:22
So literally, the difference in this game for me is the home field advantage.
27:25
My numbers like Houston by a point and a half. It's a fifty
27:27
four percent one expectancy. Guys, this is a true toss up game.
27:30
You're talking about. Whichever team wins, you're basically gaining a half game on
27:33
your win total projections. As Tyler talked about here, whatever team loses,
27:37
you're basically losing a half game because it's almost fifty fifty. The difference is
27:41
the home field advantage for me. I think the Houston crowd is going to
27:42
be pumped up, ready to go for their first Power Five games since really
27:47
they were in the Southwest Conference, you know, twenty plus years ago at
27:48
this point, almost thirty years ago, So they're gonna be ready. It's
27:52
a local rival with you will a Texas rival. It's gonna be a really
27:56
good game, really close game. I'm excited about it. Houston minus one
27:59
and a half fifty four that win probability for me. Yeah, that's a
28:02
game that you know, if you've got a season win total on either of
28:04
these teams. Larger data on what happens in this game. The last game
28:11
we wanted to touch on Penn State WVU. I've got Penn State as my
28:15
number nine team. West Virginia is my number is seventy five team. The
28:19
line has been pretty pretty consistent around the nineteen and a half twenty for the
28:23
better part of the summer. I projected Penn State minus twenty five and a
28:27
half with a total of fifty eight. I'm I'm much closer to the line
28:32
here. I'm happy to hear what Vegas has. I have Penn State minus
28:36
nineteen in this game. Penn State my number nine power rated team with a
28:38
top five defense, excuse me, top twenty offense. Drew Aller keep an
28:41
eye out. I mean, I know he's getting a lot of pub a
28:44
lot of a lot of hype if he's able to play up to that five
28:47
star status. Penn State, they've got the talent roster to really make some
28:49
noise. Potentially crashed at CFP party. They got to pull off some upsets
28:52
later in the year, but this one minus nineteen against the West Virginia team
28:56
that I have power rated actually number fifty five. West Virginia fans all mad
28:59
at me too. Sounds like every mad at me, at least the ones
29:00
I'm talking about because of what I put out recently about you know, power
29:03
five tiering jobs or whatever. But regardless, number fifty five for me,
29:07
nationally, get mad at Tyler. He's got a number seventy. Don't get
29:10
mad at me. West Virginia. I bet I bet their season win total
29:11
under two. I'm surprised they haven't come for me yet. What is season
29:15
win total? I'll give you my percentages on it. What is their win
29:17
total? I bet it under four and a half. I think I got
29:22
I think I got plus money on that under four and a half. I
29:25
got that with a I have them with a fifty six percent chance to reach
29:30
five plus. But if you got it at plus money, then you need
29:33
incorporate that in there too. So I mean, I think that's probably about
29:36
right around a break even. Bet. It sounds like for me, based
29:37
on what my numbers are, I project four point eight wins on average,
29:41
the thirty one percent chance to go bowling for West Virginia in this game.
29:44
I don't think it happens here in this game. Penn State minus nineteen.
29:47
That's a ninety one percent win expectancy. So let's just say, Tyler,
29:51
if West Virginia were to win this game, you're under a bet you'd be
29:55
sweating after week one well because I mean, they're getting point nine added to
29:57
their win total for me essentially from this one. So gosh, I really
30:02
love the way you frightened that up. So yeah, no, that that's
30:04
what I got for this one. I'll be writing about this game actually,
30:07
as soon as we get off this episode. It'll be good going up probably
30:10
on Thursday on the Lines dot Com. It is the big ten NBC primetime
30:14
game. So every single week I'll be writing for the Lines dot com about
30:17
that game. In particular, this week it happens to be Penn State West
30:18
Virginia. About eight hundred two thousand words on that game, So I'm looking
30:22
forward to diving into that one here after we get off off this recording.
30:25
But yeah, man, it's gonna be a good Slate week one. It's
30:27
here. We're gonna go wall to wall from Thursday to Monday. Gosh,
30:32
Tyler, this is what we live for. This is why we do what
30:33
we do, so that we can watch college football on the weekends in the
30:37
fall, like this is what it's all about. Man, yep, I
30:40
love it. And my favorite is like I love watching all the games and
30:44
then you know, late Saturday night, early Sunday morning, getting on the
30:47
computer, like putting all the numbers in and seeing what the new ratings are,
30:49
Like I'm I'm as excited to get my own updated ratings as you know,
30:52
hopefully hopefully our listeners to get on our updated numbers, no doubt,
30:57
dude. For me, I share that excitement the power ratings there. You
31:02
know, before I go to bed, I'm setting the computer off. It's
31:03
doing, it's running, it's doing. It's simultaneous solving of all the different
31:07
equations it needs to and we're getting to that minimizing, minimizing the air to
31:12
get to the final ratings. I check it in the morning, make sure
31:15
nothing Walkey happened. Week zero, Week one Walkee stuff happened. So it
31:18
takes me longer. Once we get going, I've worked out all the bugs.
31:21
To me, it's on Sunday afternoon when I sit down, have an
31:23
NFL game on in the background, and I'm plugging in. Now, what
31:26
does this due to my most Deserving rankings, which of course I don't release
31:30
until Monday. That you know, in week one, there's not really that
31:33
informative week two, even three, four as we are going in the year.
31:37
That to me, that's what generates the debate. That's where people start
31:38
getting all pot about, Oh my team, what do you mean the AP
31:41
has the number one? Yeah, Georgia fans, I know the AP has
31:45
you number one. I promise you you will not be my number one team
31:48
until very late in the year, if at all, during this year.
31:51
It's gonna depend on what everyone else is doing. But because your schedule is
31:53
what it is, you've got to be very impressive in those games and maybe
31:57
hope that other teams don't have, you know, an undefeated or potentially even
32:00
one loss. To be number one in my most deserving you're still going to
32:02
be probably a number one power rated team. That's two separate things, as
32:06
we've talked about. So anyway, I'm rambling. We're going on way too
32:08
long. We passed thirty minute mark. I'll shut up. But week one,
32:12
let's do it all right, Like he said, let's do it.
32:15
He's Kelly Ford at k Ford Ratings. I'm Tyler shoemaker at t shoot index,
32:20
follow us on x. We love interacting with you guys, love the
32:23
love the community that we're building. Let's have a fun week one and if
32:28
you know, if you're telling my bets, you're reading me on visa dot
32:30
com. Let's let's cash some bets this weekend and have a good time.
32:32
We'll talk to you guys next week.