Latest / Atmosphere with Emily Gracey / Where Are All the Hurricanes? A Mid-Season Check-in with Michael Lowry
Transcript
- Emily Gracey: We are halfway through the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. And so far, there hasn't been a single hurricane. Not one. The latest we've ever gone without a hurricane in the Atlantic is September the 11th, and we're not far from that right now. After the last few years of records that seem to go in the wrong direction, the strongest, the earliest, most active, this year is shockingly quiet. And yes, there's a reason for it. El Nino is doing pretty much exactly what we would expect it to do. But quiet doesn't mean over. Every day feels like it's a dog year where it's like it's not it's not one year, it's seven years, you know. It's like every day feels like seven days. and then I've seen the models really, really turn turn on very quickly. In fact, it could mean people are unprepared. A season like this I makes me a little nervous. Today on Atmosphere, hurricane expert Michael Lowry will tell us what he's watching for the back half of the season and why the Gulf isn't off the hook. He'll tell us about his career built across the National Hurricane Center, FEMA, and the Weather Channel, and the very personal reason he shuts it all off when the season ends. I just think the greatest risk to your career is burnout. And why, with AI and algorithms doing more of the talking these days, he still believes in doing the work himself. My integrity and my reputation are the most important. I'm meteorologist Emily Gracie, and this is Atmosphere, a podcast where science becomes conversation. Each week I sit down with the experts behind the forecasts, the research, and the headlines to explore not just the science, but the human stories behind it. Through natural curiosity, we're making science more understandable, more relatable, and hopefully bringing a little more comfort in how we experience the world around us. Michael Lowry. So happy to have you on. Atmosphere today is such an honor. I've been a fan of your work for I feel like years now. but finally got to meet you this past spring, which was so fun. and getting to know you a little bit here over recent months. So thrilled that we made this happen and we did it purposely right at this time so that we could get a a mid season check in here on the Atlantic season, which is hard to believe. We're already halfway done because it's, you know. We'll we'll get into it, but nothing. It's unusual. It's unusual. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It is. And you're kind of the king of stats. So I can't wait to get some some fast facts from you. I was a baseball player one time in my life. I was gonna ask you that. So I have the most esoteric stats. me at Phil Klotzbach and I are good are friends, and Phil's a baseball fan. And so we just go back and forth with these. Just no one I mean, there are people who care about these, but like no one besides us cares about some of these stats that we throw out there. That's hilarious. Yeah. It's it's literally the last thing on my little notes here is how do you feel about baseball stats? So I'm picturing you as like a little kid with baseball cards going through all of that. I I brought the book to the games, all of it. Yeah. Nice, nice, nice. Awesome. Okay. So you were born to do this, but let's go back a little bit on how you got into weather. You've been doing this for a couple of decades now. Hurricane specialist at a local TV station in Miami, correct? That's right. Yeah. resume is quite broad. So let's go way back. How did you get interested in weather in the first place? it was easy for me because of the place where I grew up, which was New Orleans. I'm I was born and raised in New Orleans. And you know, everybody there is interested in hurricanes. Hurricanes are a way of life. I mean, we have hurricane drinks, we have, you know, hurricane parties and hurricanes were just always fascinating to me. I think though I, you know Like most meteorologists, I had a I had a weather bug even kind of before the hurricane bug. I can remember, you know, as when I was younger, big a big snow well big for South Louisiana snow event that was just so cool to me as I don't know how old I was at the time, probably you know, eight or something like that, eight or nine at the time. but but then Hurricane Andrew happened and that just sort of pulled me in. it was An event that I remember we you know very well, because I was a teenager at the time, and we had evacuated. and everything around Andrew was innately fascinating to me. They can I can still remember the fire trucks going around with their speakers telling people to evacuate and driving through the remnants of Andrew as it came through South Louisiana and its second landfall on the way back home, being without power for a while afterwards. and it just kind of took off from there. I just I I I said, you know, I want to study this, I want to know as much as I can, specifically about hurricanes. it's not that I'm not interested in other types of weather. I I think weather's fascinating, but I've just I'm a hurricane nut through and through. and I've been able to make somehow make a a whole career out of this. I I think for my family there, how did how did you do that? but you know, you you can do it. And I've also been lucky. And afforded a lot of great opportunities along the way to work at a lot of great places and learn from the best. I mean, the best that have have done this in my lifetime. and then sort of taking taking that with me to where I am right now, which is you know, hurricane specialists at PLG, which is a a staple in South Florida in terms of the community. and it's a it's a great place to be. I just like being in a place that people love to talk about hurricanes, they're interested, they're savvy. You know, they're my they're my type of people. Okay. So your your background, you were saying you've learned from the best. You've really been a lot of different places here. We're talking, I was reading your bio, Noah, FEMA, the weather channel. There's a lot of stops along the way here. There are. Yeah. So you were never like, I want to do TV. You were were you just kind of feeling out these different sectors? It's funny. TV was never on my radar. it was just something that I I was more of inter I was interested in the the research side of meteorology. I did have an interest in working in the National Hurricane Center, which I did ultimately do. but but television was something I never even I had never even considered. I didn't do broadcast classes and when I was in college. I was really heavy on the research side. And it was a fortuitous thing with the weather channel reached out to me when I was at the hurricane center and they were Ironically, Rick Nabb was leaving the hur the weather channel to become the director of the Hurricane Center and they were needing someone to replace them. And so they reached out to a number of us, including me. And it was a it was sort of an inflection point where I I I had seen enough at the Hurricane Center to know that the communication side of the forecast was was vitally important. I'd I put years of work into developing new storm search products that were about to go operational. And to me, it was an opportunity to to sort of debut those and to talk about them and to and to get them out into the public. I mean, I had done the I had done the the development work side of it and actually making these products operational in the storm surge warning. and so I thought this was sort of a logical next step is to you know, to take take that to the weather channel and and Give it some visibility. And and that's what I did for five hurricane seasons. I I've always been curious because I've seen the weather channel do this a few times where they take like somebody who is so qualified in forecasting and has a great weather background and puts them on TV for the first time. That was terrible, Emily. I was like, what is that like? Like you're learning how to have like an IFB in your ear and take time cues. It was it was trial by fire. Yeah. And then you know, you look back on those early clips. I think most of us, whenever You look back on early clips of yourself, you know. most of us are doing it when we're like twenty two, you know, not yeah, you kinda yeah, cut your teeth at a at a local station, you know, very small market. not nationally. Yeah, I didn't do that. And and in fact, when I first started I started at the weather channel, it was September of twenty twelve. And a month later was superstorm Sandy. And here I am covering, you know, one of the biggest weather events of you know, the tw the twenty first century. It was it was surreal. and this was a time too when television, you know, there were there were more eyes on TV than there are today. But even now, I mean, when you get a big hurricane event, it it brings in a lot of viewers. So yeah, I mean, that's you know, I that's if there's ever a place you're gonna do it and you're gonna you're gonna learn really quickly, it's the weather channel because they have the best broadcasters, the best people. Yeah. and so you pick you take little pieces from everybody that you work with and You know, and then you you sort of you iron out the wrinkles and yeah, but it was it was different than most people was my my first experience on on air. and kudos for the weather channel for putting me on to I I wouldn't have done it. Well and kudos to them for like bridging that gap, you know, because it's a gap that usually people don't mess with. I see it more now where we're kind of it's we're blurring the lines. Like the Hurricane Center folks are doing a lot more YouTube videos and they're they're really good on air now. But before it was like you're either not on air or you're on air and they are just two separate worlds that don't merge. So it's funny it's great. I think generally I have I I think a lot of a lot of us feel this imposter syndrome. I I've I still feel that way being on TV. I'm like, what am I doing? You know, I've been doing this for 15 years now and it never goes away. No, no. And I still feel like I'm I'm not good at this, you know? well the viewers probably keep you pretty humble as well, right? Yeah, but yeah, they they sure do. And I have, you know, I've I've married my wife was a TV meteorologist, and she's legitimately very good on TV. And I can appreciate those are smooth broadcast types who are just really, really good. But it but it is it is Oddly fun. you know, I I don't ever like covering a big landfalling hurricane, but you know, if there's a place I want to be, it's it's talking about hurricanes. I I do think I do it better than anybody. And you know, I know what I'm talking about. And so it's I'm at a point where I I enjoy doing it because you know, I think I can get good information out there. And maybe, you know, some folks will see it and take action. And that's really important to me. How do you take something that you love as something you're passionate about, like covering hurricanes and even just hurricanes in general, and then have the shock and reality of watching your hometown be impacted the way it was during Katrina? it was unbelievable. Katrina, the best way I can describe describe the feelings of Katrina was A there was definitely a grief, a period of a long period of grief. There is a just a very much align in the the New Orleans before Katrina and the New Orleans after Katrina. And it's still a great, great place, but it's very different. It's demographically different. It's the infrastructure is different. you had a lot of people that were in New Orleans move from from there. And so you you you kind of lost a little bit of the I don't want to say uniqueness. I mean, you new New Orleans is still a very unique place, but you lost a lot of the the people that I I was familiar growing up with. Like you don't hear the accents as much, the sort of traditional South Louisiana accents as much as you used to. and there were people that died after Katrina because they were they were heartbroken. And I I cannot tell you how many people I know, very people I were I was close with, that passed away You know, it wasn't very long after Katrina. They moved a lot of them moved to Houston. Some of them moved to Atlanta. generally stayed in the south. but you know, folks would move away and they they lost their city, they lost their home. And to them it was it was too much. It was just too much. And it it was it was it was a hard, hard time to go back to to go back to New Orleans and to just see everything that I was had grown up with in in ruins and communities and neighborhoods unrecognizable to the point of like, you know, I couldn't get around parts of the city because you did the landmarks you were used to seeing weren't there. and it was, it was just, it was, it was odd. It was eerie. but at the at the time I was I was a emergency manager. I was in graduate school, but I was also moonlighting as an emergency manager for Florida division of emergency management. So I was I was involved in a lot of the operational side of of FEMA and In all of the storms that hit Florida in 2004 and 2005. Those were very active years, especially for Florida. so did that change the trajectory of your career at all? Did you make any changes or even just like communication thoughts on how you talk to people about hurricanes after that? That's a good question. I I don't know if I if I changed anything. I mean, the the experience I think made me just want to double down to do to have a career in hurricane forecasting and and research. You know, and and and the experience of of responding to and recovering from the from the hurricanes that hit Florida in 2004 and 2005. I don't think it changed anything, but it it reinforced that I was in the right business. Yeah. Your career is interesting in the way that like you've had these like spots that you've gone along the way. It's almost like it seems like a career that wasn't planned, but Something that you've been just up for whatever the next adventure is. Is that how it played out? Or was this more calculated than what it looks like? No, I mean, you know, I love spontaneity. So, you know, my I think my career sort of matches that. I I think so. I'm I'm very project oriented. And so what happens along the way is is I tend to pivot when I'm at the end of a project. like when I was with with FEMA, I My goal going into work for FEMA was to sort of completely reinvent their hurricane planning. And I mean, we redid everything when I was there. This was for the specifically for the southeast US, covering Florida and covering covering the big hurricane states. you know, and then but you know, the these projects can take three, four, five years. Same way at the Hurricane Center. You know, I was my goal was to develop these new storm search products to get the storm search warning out, you know, and then once we finished. Finish that if there is an opportunity, it is something I'm you know, I'm I'm considering it. So you say what's the next step? Do I stay here, go move on to another project? or is there something else that's a better better fit for me? you know, the weather channel was that was a period where the nature of television and broadcast is was changing. and I was at the end of a contract, and they were wanting more. Of me in a in a general weather sense, I didn't want to leave my role as an expert and sort of a specialist. And so our goals didn't really align at that point. And it was an opportunity at to I was really interested in going and helping FEMA out. And this was right after the hur 2017 hurricane season. We had this really, you know, poor response to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. And Yeah, what can we do to to cinch up the problems in terms of how we're responding to hurricanes? And so you know, they they came to me with this and I I said, look, this is this is this is a good time. This is good timing. And that's kind of how how it's ended up working along the way. I've seen too and a lot of people in our field, especially men, who This has become their whole life. Like there's not much of a work-life balance. And, you know, especially kind of this changeover to streaming services and digital meteorologists. How have you managed to find because you're a father, you're a husband, you have a family. How have you managed that balance and and prioritized kind of that personal side of things as well and still remain successful in what you're doing? Yeah. That's. I mean, that's a that's a big part of my life, actually. And I I would say that's largely why I'm doing what I'm doing today, which is I'm s you know, I the way the best analogy for for the work that I do today is there's half the year where I'm if you're a doctor, you're you're you know, practicing or you're practicing in clinicals, right? So there's there's half the year where I'm on air and doing operational forecasting, and there's another half of the year where I'm doing research. You know, I'm I'm maintaining and developing my expertise. and but also that other half of the year affords me more flexibility to be with my family. and and I have sort of unique circumstances with my I have three kids. My oldest child has very has profound disabilities. when she was born, she had a catastrophic brain injury, and she she will require lifelong care. and a lot of time that is spent with her is spent at therapies and medical appointments and things of that nature. And I need time to be able to do that. And hurricane season is is a marathon for me. I mean, I'm working a insane amount. and so I have to have half the year where I'm not working at that pace. It's just you would you would burn yourself out. There's no no way I could continue. At this pace that I do for six months of the year for the other six months. And it's and that's great because it recharges me. And when I come back and, you know, ready for the season in May, I'm I'm ready to go. I, you know, I I've learned new things, I've developed new tools. You know, I write my own software that I use during hurricane season to do analysis and assessments and things like that. So it's giving me time to do all these projects, these fun things in the projects in the off season that I'm using. during hurricane season, but it also gives me time to s to be with you know, have a little more time with my family. and that's really important. You know, I I just think the the greatest risk to your career is burnout. And you know, there's and that's that's across the board. I think it's but it but especially in our profession because the weather is just everywhere, right? And you just you it never turns off. It's twenty four seven. It never turns off. Yeah. You start tweeting, you never stop. Yeah, my my wife's a meteorologist and like it's funny how Kate and I don't really talk. She understands enough, but like and we I mean it's not we never talk about weather because we do and we can appreciate it when we do, but it's kind of nice to have somebody that gets it, you know. that's like, hey, we we need a break and so yeah, I'm I'm I'm a big big believer in yeah, I work a lot, but I also I have a like a kind of a hard line between personal life and professional life and Making sure that there's still plenty of time for the kids. 'cause I have younger kids. So they just, you know, they demand a lot. And I love spending time with them too. It doesn't really stop when they get older. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Just, you know, all the energy. Gotcha. okay. Well, we are halfway through your busy season now. so can we talk a little bit about 2026? Cause this has been really interesting. I feel like for a quiet season, it's getting a lot of press. and of course, in the same way that certain buzzwords have popped up in the past and whether I feel like El Nino's really having a moment right now, and rightfully so, but everybody's been asking me about it. So I'm going to in turn ask you about it because I haven't been answering their questions well. I forgot what we called it. I don't know. This is super El Nice. Super Yeah, there's been a lot of adjectives. The Jurassic El Nino. That's it, yes. It's been a quiet season. That was predicted. Can you tell me kind of where we stand now and what the second half of the season may or may not look like? Yeah. So we're it's qu it's you know, it's quiet in the in in terms of overall activity. It's it's exceptionally quiet in terms of overall hurricane activity in the Atlantic. We haven't had a hurricane. And the the latest we've ever gone without a fr a hurricane. In the Atlantic is September the 11th. And we're not far from that. A lot can happen. I said this on air yesterday. I said a lot can happen during hurricane season because every day feels like it's a dog it's a dog year at this time of year, where it's like it's not, it's not one year, it's seven years. You know, it's like every day feels like seven days. and then I've seen the models really, really turn turn on very quickly. I don't, you know, I don't have any reason to believe that it we're gonna see some just dramatic flare up in in in activity, but You know, you ex we still expect to see hurricanes this year. that the forecast is for there to be hurricanes. I mean, fewer of them, far fewer of them. but yeah, we're this is the peak peak time. So here between here and in in October, and I you know, I I know it sounds pedantic and people get really tired of hearing of it, but it really just takes takes one hurricane. and it's We need a better way to say that though, because it does feel like a broken record. It really it does. I know and people people say that and it sounds like I'm just, you know, but I I truly believe that. And and I worry about it being in a year, like, you know, a big 26 hurricane for for South Florida or Miami being in a year that's that's overall very quiet because then people are turned the other way and they're not really paying attention like they they might otherwise. You know, so, but yeah, I mean, El Nino's doing its thing and it's it's gonna be historic. It's probably gonna be the strongest El Nino that we've had in, you know, definitely the modern record, but you know, by some estimates going back even to the late 1700s. and with you know, what that does is it increases the wind shear across the Atlantic. You have all of this rising air in the Pacific, which is where the thunderstorms, which is where the storm activity is clustered. The Pacific has just been on fire in terms of the number of hurricanes out there this year and and there's no reason to think that that's not going to continue. Another nice thing about any El Nino, especially strong El Nino years, is it tends to turn off the Atlantic earlier. we s we usually see an earlier end of the year, but you know, that's usually when you average it out. So we'll just have to see how this year plays out. But it's it's behaving as as it should. And I am definitely not complaining about it. It's been a long time since we've had a quiet hurricane season. So okay. So that's the Atlantic. What about the Gulf? What does El Nino do to the Gulf and is there a possibility of development there? And what's the role that that plays and the timing of the season too? Yeah, I've taught I've this is what's something I really I've focused on a lot this year is the Gulf and then the the subtropics. So the subtropics, I w the golf is actually part of the subtropics, but I would consider the subtropics Of the Atlantic to be east of Florida, sort of from the Bahamas northward. and that's where El Nino doesn't team tend to have as big have have as much of an influence. the the the biggest effect that we see from El Nino is the increase in upper level winds from the west, and that increases wind shear. It's primarily in the ribbon, in the band from the the Caribbean through the deep tropics from Africa, from the Caribbean to Africa. So you have to look a little bit farther to the north. But if a system slips through, particularly like later in the year, we get these you know, stalled fronts and you have a low pressure that's festers over the Gulf or just to the east of Florida. there's there's absolutely no reason why you couldn't get a strong storm that would spin up. so that's that's the sort of thing. And but that's what we've seen. That's really been the the story this season. We've had Arthur Bertha, Eduardo, those those have all been pretty pretty close to land. So, you know, that's always a worry is that if this typically you would have plenty of time to track these things as they come from Africa. People have a heads up. If you were to get a system that kind of s sneaks through the the cracks and develops closer into to land, waters in the Gulf are are are pretty warm. let not as warm below the surface, but east of Florida they're especially warm at record levels, near record levels. Okay. So breeding ground if something was there. Yeah. Yeah. okay. Well, stats wise, give me some fun facts because your newsletters are filled with fun facts. do you have anything interesting to share that's kind of popped up in your research as far as this season compared to past seasons? A lot of the records are are are the are the low activity records, you know. So right now we're we're we're neck and neck with 1988 in terms of the slowest season on record. And if we don't have much more in the next week or two, then we're gonna go back even farther. So you're talking, you know, 40 years, the slowest hurricane season in 40 years. these are all great records. I, you know, cause like recently it's all it's been the opposite. It's been about the strongest, the worst, the warmest, to the point where people are like, do you have anything good for us? That so I I'm okay with the the sort of benign records. But does it make your job harder when it's a quiet season? Yeah. Yes. Absolutely it does. Look, I don't I don't ever mind a quiet season. I like a quiet hurricane season. but I also don't mind when there is hurricanes out in the middle of the Atlantic to talk about and no one's being no one's being affected. because I, you know, I do have to still go on air every day. and I have to find things that are interesting to talk about. You know, so if there's no active weather going on in the tropics, then I need to find something that is that is interesting. And there's always re there are always interesting stories happening, but it just takes a lot more work to uncover those things. And so I'm constantly digging through these massive data sets and there's all you know, talking about things that are happening behind the scenes, that maybe n aren't aren't getting a lot of attention. and I think there's opportunities when it's quiet to talk about, you know, I've I've been talking a lot about AI models and those are things that are new and people aren't really familiar with. And and so it's an opportunity, I think, to educate people about some of the new technology that we're using and how we're using it and that sort of thing. So it's it's not it's not a bad thing. It's but it it definitely is and it does create more work for me. Does it ever like slow the science too like as far as research because there's nothing to study? It can. Yeah, no, it can. It it's a double edged sword with hurricanes. The weather channel just recently had a had a piece. They reached out to me on they reached out to a number of the hurricane experts and they were the question they were posed is what is your Mount Rushmore of hurricanes? and I I thought it was an interesting question. So what are your top if you gave me a top four list for hurricanes, what would those be? Like what does that mean? Like your most memorable or the ones that you would you would put on a past pedestal, I suppose, and say that you know these are the greatest. of all time hurricanes. and that's a hard question to answer. Yeah, it is. Yeah. Because they're destructive. They're destructive. And it's not, it's not necessarily a good thing. but for me, I interpreted the question as being what which hurricanes have had the most lasting impact or the most memorable impact. And the ones that came to mind were Katrina, obviously. I think 1900 Galveston, I have to remember Camille, and Andrew. Yeah, Andrew. Yeah. But so those four, when I when I think about them, I I think about everything that came out of those terrible hurricanes in a in a positive way. there was just money that was poured into hurricane research after Katrina. you almost doubled the number of hurricane specialists. emergency management was completely overhauled of reform through through Pakimera. After Hurricane Andrew, we tightened up building codes in South Florida. I mean, in a in a way that is it is night and day in terms of how buildings and and infrastructure is is is handled in South Florida versus what it was 30 years ago. so to me, it was the sort of the positive that came from these. and and Camille, as terrible as it was, the Sappho-Simpson hurricane scale came from that a lot of focus on. New renewed focus on communicating and messaging hurricanes came out of it. so that's that's kind of what I think about in terms of, you know, yes, the hurricane it's terrible when you have a bad hurricane, but you know, there there are sort of some positives to it. you know, we've hurricane forecasting, I would argue, is one of the biggest success stories in all of predictive sciences, you know. and it doesn't get enough credit. Yeah, I agree. okay. Well, you brought up AI. so I want to dig into that a little bit. I noticed you've been putting some Google Deep Mind information into some of your newsletters, but I also know that you're doing so much legwork and maybe not utilizing AI in other senses of the term when A lot of people are using it for things. so I want to talk about that balance and where it's good and where maybe it's not good. Does it bother you when you s I mean you see people in our field using AI? I guess the graphics you mean how how do you how do you see it being used well and not well? And I I'm just curious from a from the standpoint of another. So I've and I'm selfishly thinking about how I use it too, and I don't put out a lot of graphics. I think the graphics look cool, but I also think they're so obviously created by Chad GPT that that is so distracting to me. I don't know what the public thinks of that. If it's getting a point across, then great. But I also think it can be confusing and mixed with maybe bad information online created by people who are not meteorologists. So I don't know. Whereas like TV station graphics are like usually from a pretty reputable source, even if they don't look quite as cool. But I think it's great, you know, that people are able to go and work on their own and not work for somebody else and put out this information. So I don't know. I don't know how I feel about it. But then I see people like you doing the work and putting in the time. and it can be done and it stands out, I think, which is a win for our field. Yeah. Well, I mean the one area where I don't I never never say never, but I can't imagine using AI is is it's the same way as like I would never put an AI version of me on TV. What you read and that I put out in my newsletter and what I write in terms of my forecast, that is a hundred percent me. I just it's never something I'm gonna run through, you know, an AI prompt and ask it to to write a newsletter based off of whatever I might give it. those are my words, every single one of them, and they're a lot to type every morning. And but I I enjoy, I enjoy writing too. I enjoy the process of writing. It makes me think. It's the first thing I do every day. And so it really makes me think about okay, what's what are the what's the what's the story today? And you know, how am I framing it? And in anyway, so that's that's an area where I just don't see AI ever ever you know, being a part of that that process. But the forecast models, it's undeniable. I mean, like you know the the the models, I mean deep mind, not just deep mind, but but The European AI model for hurricanes have have just been really astonishing and and and great. we can run them so much more quickly. You know, it does it cost some energy to train them, but you know, once you have them trained, they they use far less energy than these giant supercomputers. and so they are in our toolbox and they're staying in our toolbox where they need to be. And the the traditional physics based models aren't going anywhere anytime soon. But it's it's been a really kind of I think an exciting time for hurricane forecasting to have those those models. Mm-hmm. What about when like you're sourcing data? Do you is it useful in that way of like where can I find a record or you know, what's the hottest day that this happened in this city and please source that data? Like I have found it useful when it comes to finding quick facts and sourcing that information. So it's funny. I I I do this thing and I've I I actually have thought about writing a piece on this where I so everything I do, I I I do for my own research encoding. I don't and I don't actually rely on on AI for stats and things like that. because I know the data sets are in the data sets are constantly changing. you know, and so what I will have done recently, this is like I guess my first full year of doing it is whenever I find an interesting stat and I and I write about it and talk about it is I is I ask some AI chat box. It could be Claude, it could be chat GPT. Give me whatever stat I'm looking for. And I see if it gets the answer right. For the ones at least that I'm including in my piece, which are really kind of weird and esoteric, most of the time it it misses it. And it's not sometimes it's not terribly, but sometimes it's like way off. So that's the interesting thing. The more and more I use it, I like using AI because I like seeing, okay, is it because if it's if it works in this area, then yeah, I can use it and it simplifies things and I don't have to, you know, go dig up the data set and do all the coding. And but a lot of it too is is just like the the the initial question that you ask of like, hey, I wonder how unusual this is. And and then that helps is sort of contextualizing things, but I have so many examples. and they're and some of them are pretty funny in terms of how far off the the fails. The fails are. Yeah. Yeah. You should definitely write about the fails. That would be fun. I like, I but that's again, that's another area where I just I I enjoy the the process of c getting the data and combing through. And there's all these just little idiosyncrasies of data and understanding them makes me a better meteorologist. And so it's one of those things that's hard to give up. But you know, at some point. the AI will just read through all of my posts that I've made and they will know all of the records at that point. So Yeah. I was gonna say you're teaching it. So I actually have had it use me as a reference on a number of things. Goal accomplished. Ironic. Yeah. Yeah. okay, well, getting the information out there, we've talked about your newsletter a couple of times and it's on this platform that, you know, you kind of made a name for yourself on, which is Substack. And I feel like I'm seeing a lot more weather information going out on Substack lately, or maybe just because I'm on there now, I think that. But can you talk about how you kind of found this platform and why for you it works better than some of these other platforms for sharing weather information? I'm I've wanted to do a to have a Substack for I don't know how long I would say it's been since I was I can remember when I was at FEMA. So this was, you know. late to probably 2018, 2019, then I I was I was thinking, I was like, I I really want to get a Substack going. but there was just there was some conflict of being a federal employee and and having my own Substack. And and so I didn't do it. but when I when I moved to this position, it was sort of a natural thing of like, hey, this isn't this is probably a time to to try this. And I like long form writing for complicated forecasts. now, I get it. Some people don't read, they don't want to read. That's cool. That's why I put as as many graphics I can as I can and you know forecast related images and that sort of thing. for those people who who don't like to read, the one thing I I mean about Substack too is like even even for these posts and articles is you can just hit a play button and it will it will play it for you and somebody will read it to you. so if I'm gonna I I sort of tailor it toward anybody who's living along the coast, an emergency manager, and I just want a morning brief of what's going on in the tropics, give it to me in two or three minutes, boom, there it is. And it's on demand. You can pull it up whenever. and I try to write it so that it does have a have a decent shelf life to it. but then there's everything else that Subscat Substack can bring, you know, which is, you know, you can do videos, you can do, I mean, there's just so much more. And you're seeing a lot of the traditional. lot of traditional journalists move onto the platform for that reason. Yeah. Do you n like you mentioned a few what you hope your audience is. Do you know for sure that that's your audience? Or are you I would guess you have a lot of like meteorologists that are checking in on this and kind of getting their morning update when they don't have time to do the the deep digging that you do. Yeah, my my my audience is pretty varied. I mean I I definitely skew toward people who are just really into hurricanes, obviously. but there's I have a lot of news news organizations and news types follow me. you know, I think it's an easy way for them to say, okay, is is there something here? Is there something we need to be talking about? a lot of meteor a lot of meteorologists, yes. A lot of emergency managers. I hear from emergency managers all over the country that they they they rely on this information and to make their decisions and things like that. So You know, it it definitely has it's kind of spiders out in terms of the the people that are using it. And it's great. I I love it. you know, that was the whole point of me doing it. And you know, I don't charge anything for it. it's you know, it's but it's la it is absolutely a labor of love. I mean, it it's on a day-to-day basis is the hardest thing I do. because it, you know, it it lives out there and you know, TV if you you know, say something you shouldn't, it's whether it's next hit and but I've done, yeah, I don't know, five hundred and fifty of these things and yes, and they're all there. So if I s if I mess up something or in a forecast, you're it's right there for you to to call me out on. But you know, I really think through a lot of this stuff and and really try to give you the best information I can. It's a good archive to have though too. Like if you have to think back on, you know, a specific storm and what happened. The person who uses my who goes back and looks at my posts, it more it's me. I'm the one that I I write the articles more for me than I think for anybody else. and I'm constantly referencing myself. I'm like, now I know I've looked into this before and I can't remember. So I'm cer I will search my old articles to see. yeah, of course. Yes. And I would say that it's like good for all audiences. I I don't think anybody should like be intimidated to read it or listen because I think it's very accessible to the general public. I write, I do I I very intentionally I think through how I write and and I write in a way that I I I like to write like you're listening to a story. Like it's a dark and stormy night. You know, I try to spell things out for people. I don't just assume that you're the when you come into my article that you've been following this for two weeks like I have. So every day it's like a I try to reset for for everybody and sort of remind, okay, how do we get here? so yeah, I do I I do think about how to make it accessible to the general audience. even if it's It's tailored for enthusiasts like me. Would you say that's a skill you had before you started working in television or something you picked up when you started working in television? I think TV has been helpful in making me think about just framing of s of stories and and storytelling in general. I think the writing is something that I was I think I've always enjoyed writing. I think it's I I'm a good writer. I I enjoy it. And And just I sort of connecting the two. It took me a little while to find a place where I could connect the two. and it's it's a very enjoyable thing, even if it's a lot of work and it can be, you know, frustrating some days. I yeah, I I I think TV has helped in terms of just the the general nature of storytelling and and thinking about how we're messaging things and but you know, you can you can unpack a lot more in a post online than you can on TV. most days if it's quiet, you know this. I mean, you're TV, you're you don't have a lot of time. and even then certain graphics just don't I have tried certain graphics like like graph plots on TV are terrible. they just don't work. but you know, with Substack I try to make in especially nowadays, you can make plots that are interactive and those are those are more engaging and you know, so it's It's definitely it's definitely something I'm utilizing more and more. Do you think there's a book in your future? It's something I've I'm in the I don't talk about with people, but it is something I've working on in the background. Yes. Yeah. In addition to all of these other research papers and stuff that I'm I have my foot in. but yeah, absolutely absolutely. Cool. Well, look forward to that. All right. Well, what else does the future hold? Or are you gonna just keep going with the wind and and wherever it takes you? No, this is great. I love what I do right now. It's the I've had I'm having the most fun I've ever had. And I think you, you know, as a meteorologist, is you have to be our field is changing. The nature of of of media is changing. And you have to be nimble. Like you, you know, you have to learn new things. I've done, you know, the AI stuff. I've really I've embraced it as much as I can. I mean to the point of where I'm I'm writing these obscene code to to disentangle deep mind thousand member ensembles. But You know, it it's it's my crossword puzzle, right? I mean, it's it's what keeps me kind of young and keeps me spry and so yeah, I I I enjoy just, you know, when when newer things come aro come a come around and sort of embracing it and and learning the new thing. Is there anybody that you're like super impressed with right now in the field that we should be watching for or following on any platform? that's a good question. Yeah. Totally. I think there's a lot of great people. I like the people. There's a lot of there are a lot of great people online that have, you know, are sort of younger meteorologists that are that are coming up, that are putting so much great stuff out there. gosh, I think I would feel I would feel bad to like mention them by name because there's just there are there are a lot of them. but I think of people like Toma Berg and the stuff he does at polar weather, it's really, it's really kind of fun to see these people come up. And you know, and and and do some really great things. And then and then even on s you know, Substack, besides you, there are other really, really great gifted writers, Matt Lanza and Alan Girard are are two that do a lot of daily kind of posting like me and their stuff is great. I mean, it's it's very sensible. and we need we need more of that. and And so I I you know, I hope more and more people follow follow suit. Michael, is there anything else you want to share about the hurricane season? I mean, look, if we could find another way to say it only takes one, but you know I'm gonna ask Chat GPT later about that. Yeah. And I'm hopeful that we that the rest of the season is quiet. But the reality of it is it a season like this I makes me a little nervous. And particularly for us in South Florida. You know, we got to get through October. October is our if there's a month our to see a hurricane in South Florida, it's it tends to be October. And so I'm not gonna sort of breathe a sigh of relief until we're through October. It's been a long time for Southeast Florida. You know, we haven't had any we haven't had direct winds from a hurricane since 2005 for the urban corridor of Southeast Florida. So, you know, Groward, Miami Dade. and so When it happens, it's it's not gonna be good. so I just hope it's not this year. Well, Michael, thank you so much for your time today. This was fun. Yeah, it was good to join you. Thank you for having me. A big thank you to Michael Lowry for joining me today. Michael's Substack is linked in the show notes. I highly recommend you subscribe to his daily newsletters during the hurricane season. No matter what your background, you will enjoy and understand these. And like he mentioned, they're free and even available in audio format. Also, please subscribe to my Substack. I publish weekly articles taking deep dives into the podcast episodes I do every week. And now for paid subscribers, I'm releasing the full uncut video interviews with my guests. If today's episode sparked any questions or you just want to talk weather, you can connect with me on Facebook. I'm Meteorologist Emily Gracie there. Or you can follow along on Instagram. 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