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NFL Week 4 - Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems go.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: Clear your liftoff. What's up, everyone? Tyler Tamerlene here, a.k.a.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: ToeTag and Tambo, back for another edition of Leverage Lane,
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: NFL edition, here on the Ship It Nation YouTube station.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: We've got week four, gonna be breaking it down as usual.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: We got a little bit of a recap from last week.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: It's a lot of concepts and theories that we're gonna
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: be bringing over to this week. My man, Alex Bickle
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: here is with me as always going to help me
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: through it. I'm losing my voice a little bit this week,
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: so he's going to help me through it a little
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: more than usual, but excited to be here, pumped up
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: for this slate. And then we've got the chalk build
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: that we'll look at, how to leverage that. And then
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: a main focus on single entry as we get to
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: our leverage lanes at the end of the way we're
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: handling single entry this week. Alex, my friend, got to
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: bring you in. What's going on? How are you doing
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: this week?
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Doing very well. And yeah, like you said off the top,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: definitely want to talk a little bit more than we
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: usually do about last week. I think it's always important
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: to review the previous slate because it gives us an
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: opportunity to take accountability of some of the, the things
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: that we, we got wrong or, or maybe some process
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: errors I think is, is obviously the more important aspect
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: of it. And, and it's like, that's always something I
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: want to do, but it's also true that a lot
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: of the time we get to the, the, uh, the
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: time here to actually do leverage lane on Saturday morning.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: And it's like, well, what was, what was last slate?
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: What actually happened? What was I on? Who did I play? And, uh, and, uh,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: you know, It's so it's one of those things where
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: I like for us to do it more and we're
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: definitely gonna do a lot of it today, but it's
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: also like, it's not the easiest thing to do each
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: and every week.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we do. I do take down breakdown every Monday
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: with either Bellman or my guy Nades and we use DFSOS.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: We go over there and just check it out. We'll
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: pull it up for today because I think it's going
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: to be interesting. But if you go to the dashboard
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: and slate review, it's like you said, it's good. I
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: think people just think, Oh, you're just looking at winning lineups.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: It's not that at all. You can look at full portfolios,
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: you can do everything, but it starts to connect the
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: dots on what some of these players were doing. One
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: 800 degrees, Miami actually won. We reviewed it this week,
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: but one, both Millie's had the same lineup in the
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: five 55 and the $ 20. So, Couple of million dollars
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Sunday for them. A great player. Been around for a
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: long time. Won a fantasy football world championship amongst many
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: other tournaments, but you see some of the same names
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: popping up, right? And then you can find out what
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: they do and what they did differently. But we were
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: talking pre-show about a couple of different spots. And one
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: of them was the insane game over in Brazil. My, uh,
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: you know, anyone who knows me probably see it on
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: this side. So there's some Ravens gear there anyway. but
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: knows I'm a big Ravens fan. That was just a
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: crazy run out. The one second on the clock, we're
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: not here to review that stuff, but I will say
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: you shouldn't even be put in that position. The coaching
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: decisions by the Cowboys down the stretch were insanity and
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: worked in the favor of the Ravens and a team
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: I love. But in the end, crazy game. But you
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: want to talk about it from a DFS perspective as
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: does everybody here want to listen to it. Crazy that
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: a 34-31 game, there's like nothing that shows up anywhere
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: from any of that. So I'll let you take it away.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, first of all, it would have been
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: really nice to have overtime there. It always feels like,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: I'm sure everyone has this exact thought, but it always
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: feels like when I need a game to go overtime,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: something crazy happens so that it doesn't. And when a
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: chalk game, when I'm rooting against it to go to overtime,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: something crazy happens so that it does. But with that said, yeah,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: it was definitely a weird game last week in the
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: sense that the Cowboys kept kicking it out of bounds
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: or giving... Baltimore, a short field in one way or another.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: So it was like almost every single drive started at
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: their own 40 or even better field position than that.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: And that just meant that they had short field over
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: and over and over again. And so there wasn't really
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: an opportunity for them to get a ton of yardage. Uh,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: it also meant that they spent more of their like
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: overall offensive time, uh, in an area of the field
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: where their run rate is always going to be higher
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: than the pass rate. So, uh, it was, I think
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  Speaker 1: an unlucky run out in a lot of ways, but
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I also noticed at times that it was very clear
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: that even though I expect Declan Doyle's offense to be
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: very aggressive when they're at full strength and an aggressive
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: passing offense down the field, he was a little bit
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: concerned about how beat up the offensive line was and
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: called a little bit more of a conservative game plan
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: as a result. And so that was something that I
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: feel like I've put myself in that position more than
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: I would like over the last, let's say, year and
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: a half of of a NFL main slate DFS where my,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: my stack just isn't trying to get me fantasy points
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: the way I want them to try to get me
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: fantasy points. And of course, and, and like, of course,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: I don't mean that I want them to be thinking
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: about DFS product or anything like that. It's just, I
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: want to be picking offenses that have every football incentive
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: to be aggressive through the air more than what I
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: have done. So that's something that I, I did want
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: to kind of take accountability on, but then also kind of,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: frame some of the stacks I'm interested in this week
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: through that lens. Cause I think that's a, it's a
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: helpful explanation for why I like some of the stacks
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: that I do, or it's helpful to think about, okay, well,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: given the interest I have in this stack, how should
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: I actually play it? Which is going to come up
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: quite a bit.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah. One other thing we talked about too, just going
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: back to that winning lineup for a second, like the,
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: you know, it ties into some of this stuff as well,
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: but So last week we had Bowers. We're going to
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: talk about, you know, we'll, we'll start there. Maybe then
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: let you segue it to Bowers, but I had it here.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: Sadiq shows up on all these lines and Juwan Johnson.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: I talked through it on Monday and you and I
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: talked a little bit about it pre-show, but you know,
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: Mason Taylor was already out. Adonai Mitchell was kind of doubtful.
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: We weren't really in the play. We just had to
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: wait for it to be official that morning. We got it.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: I know you'll talk about accountability myself. I talked to her,
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: talked to her on Monday and, I already had Wilson
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: and Gibbs and those stacks and things like that, but
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: I got to a lot more Isaiah Williams than I did.
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: And that cost me somebody in the chat earlier and said,
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: you know, you know, sun God over Gibbs, that can
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: always be super popular. You got, you could have both
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: game stacks, whatever, depending on the type of tournament that
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: you were in. But in the end Gibbs was, but
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: it's almost like, That type of stuff, it's on a
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: last-minute whim. They have Williams lined up and not Sadiq
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: in a onesie position. I know there was a ton
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: of tight end options last week, so that's part of
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: it too. But still, just thinking through it again, you're like, damn,
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: kind of missed that piece if you didn't get there.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: So everybody did that didn't get there. And 95% of
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: the field didn't get there, so that. And then the
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: other angle of just condensed offenses, Wilson, Sadiq, or Williams,
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: pick your poison. I mean, you could have Breesall, I guess,
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: in there too. still pretty condensed. And then the, what
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: if of, you know, you're, you're most likely you had
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: Gibbs in your lineup, a lot, 40% or something had Gibbs.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: So it's like, you're already saying this is going to happen.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: If that happens, they got to throw now. So like that,
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: the guy's catching the ball. So you, you kind of
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: almost got a perfect storm and it's when it shows
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: up on the millionaire lineup. Oh damn. How did I
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: not get to that myself? Because that makes perfect sense.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: You got to try and think through that for each
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: slate when you're putting together your lineups, especially when your
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: single entries like we talk about here and that you
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: focus on. So any more on that, like Sadiq, Bowers,
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: there's more. Yeah.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, it was, as you said, like there were
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: a lot of tight end plays last slate, but there were,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: there were three main ones that I want to talk
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: about real quick. And that is Bowers, Sadiq and Gadsden.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: And the reason why I want to talk about these
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: three is because they all had a lot more uncertainty
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: around them than a lot of the other plays. Right.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: So like, uh, there wasn't a whole lot of uncertainty
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: around Dalton Schultz or TJ Hockinson. We know what their
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: role is. We know that they have an avenue to
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: success through catching touchdowns and catching a lot of just
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: short passes, but they're not going to make big plays.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: They're not going to catch the 35-yard seam route, you know,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: leaping over the defender, diving in the end zone the
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: way Sadiq did for the touchdown. And so these three
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: all had unique uncertainty around them, and the uncertainty played
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: out very much in favor of two of them and
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: very much against the other. And so, um, the first
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: one I want to talk through is Bowers. Cause I
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: think we're only going to get one chance ever to,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: to use like a $ 6, 600, 1% Brock Bowers. And that
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: was last week at, at least with, uh, with Kubiak
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: as the, as the head coach. And, uh, I think very,
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: very highly of Kubiak and think very highly of the
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: role that, uh, that Bowers had. And so I, I
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: am kicking myself a little bit for not really wanting
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: to be ahead of the curve. And I almost feel like, uh,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: if he had been 4% on 5% on, I might've
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: talked myself into it more. Whereas like when he was
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: 1% on it, it felt a little bit more like, okay,
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: this is probably just a stupid play. If only 1%
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: of people are going to do this. And, and obviously
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: it turned out like that was not the case. And
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: so I wish I would have trusted my, my first
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: thought there instead of kind of backing off of that
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: throughout the week. But, but Gazan and Sadiq, man, like
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: I'm not convinced even after seeing the way those games
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: played out that they were, all that different of plays
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: with the information that we had at the start of
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: the games where both are young players. Both are obviously talented.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: We didn't know what role they would have, right? Like
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: they both had guys ahead of them who were out.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: So it seemed like they had to be on the field.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Gadsden then wasn't on the field anymore than usual. In fact,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: he might've been on the field less than usual. They
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: were using like double fullbacks at times. It was a
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: very weird thing. And, I also will say like that
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: game played out even weirder than the Baltimore Dallas game
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: where if Buffalo had scored the way we expected. them
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: to score, instead of turning the ball over five times,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: the charges probably have to play a more traditional drop
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: back style offense. And then Gadsden probably gets on the field.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: So I think that was, you know, the Gadsden donut
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: was probably more of just bad run out than, um,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: but it also shows just how wide of a range
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: of outcomes he had. And I think Sadiq had a
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: pretty similarly wide range of outcomes. It just happened that
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: he had like the very good end of that range
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: of outcomes. And I'm sure people are going to not
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: totally agree with that. And that's fine. Like I could
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: definitely be wrong about that. But I think the thought
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: that I've had is like, let's imagine that those situations
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: were reversed. Let's imagine that Gadsden had a really good
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: game and Sadiq had a poor game. And I was
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: on here saying the exact same thing of like, While
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: I think they were pretty similar plays, I'm 100% sure
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: that there would be people in the comments saying, well,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Gadsden was obviously the better play because we had seen
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: him have NFL-level success last year, and Sadiq missed a
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: lot of training camp, and rookies who miss a lot
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: of training camp just never end up in the role
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: that we wish them to be in. And so I
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: think there's probably some hindsight bias in anyone saying that
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Sadiq was clearly a much better play than Gadsden. Where
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: I would agree with them is that If they were
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: very similar plays and they had similarly wide range of outcomes,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: they were both in pretty good game environments, but one
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: was like half the ownership of the other. That was Sadiq.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: So he probably was the better play.
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I also think there's the element of what's going on,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: like what the slate dynamics are. And that's what I
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: was trying to say is like you already had– like
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: we talk about it all the time, the secondary stacks
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: that kind of just get put together. This week's going
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: to be another good one to talk about because there's
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: going to be Chase Brown, Parker Washington is the equivalent
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: at a different price point, probably more balanced price point
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: than last week. But it was Gibbs and Garrett Wilson.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: When those were already in all of those lineups, the
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: way what I was calling like a slice and dice
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: is like you're not– That ownership exists whether you like
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: it or not. In single, in double, you showed off
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: the conditional ownership last week. Those were just getting played
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: together a lot. But then, would you see Sadiq and
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: Gino in more of those combos still? Yes, because that
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: fit the game stack. But I'm just saying it allowed
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: you to also go get different with all this other
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: stuff that ended up at the top. And it's not
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: the results-oriented stuff. of like, oh, that's what won the
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: tournaments as much as if you were already there. And
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: I actually, I don't know if you caught it, but
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: I had a back and forth. Mayo and I always
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: go back and forth on this defense shit. And it's like,
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: you know, you don't have to put the defense at all.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: We know that. The data shows it. We've looked at it.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: It's been like a myth forever. Like it can work. Obviously,
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: we know why it can work. The defense... gets a
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: conversion to a fumble recovery or something like that. And boom,
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: now the offense is right back in position and they
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: want to just run it and they run it in
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: or whatever it might be. We get the angle of
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: why it correlates some and people love to do it,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: but it's like, Sometimes it just fits it. And it's
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: something that others aren't thinking about. Everyone's playing Aaron Jones. Great.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: But how many people are paying up and spending $ 4, 000
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: on the Minnesota Vikings defense this week? Not many. That
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: could help. It could hurt.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: But it's like, that's an example where you could get
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: to it. You don't have to do it. But when
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: more people are on Garrett Wilson and Gibbs, that's where
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: I get a little disappointed in myself of not, not
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: hitting the result, but of like not putting the puzzle
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: together in that way, where it was like, at least
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: in some ways, I had some with it, but a
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: very minimal versus like I would be willing to take
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: on to go collect point the uncertainty that kept their
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: ownership low. Well, that uncertainty won people millions of dollars
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: that were willing to get there or go there or
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: use that as the way to build their puzzle up
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: and make it make sense. And I always talk about
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: the penthouse process, right? You know, like I'm getting to
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: the next level and that you got to get to
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: the top of the penthouse to win all the money. Well,
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: it's like a lot of people were on ground level
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: with Garrett Wilson or Gibbs. A lot of people got
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: to level– like tons of people got to level two
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: of like put those two together. Okay, great. Most people
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: got stuck on floor two and couldn't get past the
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: security at the elevator to keep going up. It was
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: those that were like, oh, but wait, I can put Gino, Sadiq,
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: and this. Okay, well, that's the next one. But then
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: it's like if I do that, it unlocks this, and
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: I still have a piece of all that, and boom,
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: and now you've got the million dollars at the top.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: Shout out again to 1-800-DEGREES-MIAMI who– definitely was at the
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: top of the penthouse and can buy a penthouse now
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: for $ 2 million with both Millie maker wins. So I
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: don't know, I don't have more to add, but I
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: think the slate dynamics and what you're doing still matter
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: to me. And that was one of the easiest ways
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: using that uncertainty, but what was a more condensed target
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: tree in a game that could get the back and
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: forth and you could put it together and slice and
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: dice the ownership of the very popular combo to your
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: thing on Gadsden. I'll say I agree everything you stated there,
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: especially the comments part, what people would say, like for sure,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: all that, whether right or wrong, it's really tough to tell.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: But the thing about that is, is like hopefully people
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: that were going there were building with that same idea
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: in mind. Like, did you have a Herbert McConkie Gadsden
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: with James Cook or something? But I also think that's
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: an element that we talk about a lot on here
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: and we'll be talking about again this week when there's
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: games that people know could go off but they don't
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: get there because they're like, I don't know what to
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: do with the Buffalo side, or I don't know what
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: to do with this. It's like, that's where you got
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: to think about it. And when you had the jets
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: example from last week, which we can always bring across,
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: that's kind of the thought process there. It's like not
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: much to think about. It's just, you have to think
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: about it in hindsight, unfortunately, because to your point on
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: like the Bowers thing, we're not going to get Bowers
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: at 1% very often. And by the way, that was
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: last week. So you can't have it back. It's over.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: You can't even get it back. That was before you'll
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: never get it again right now. But yeah, in the
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: jet situation, it was condensed. It fit the game stack.
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: We knew what to do with Gibbs or almond raw
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: on the other side. Like people had it all figured out.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: That's why more got there in the end. So think
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: about that when you're building out your lineups each week,
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: anything else from last.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Week, Alex?
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: Aaron's a Aaron's in the chat asking if, uh, speaking
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: of tight end uncertainty is taking me an example of
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: this week. I it's, it's a different scenario, but it's similar.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: And I will say like a lot of what we're
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: talking about here as review of last week, uh, we,
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: we are, We are talking about it very purposefully because
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: it's all coming up in this week again. And to
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: that point, the last thing I wanted to mention from
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: last week is my leverage lane last week was to
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: use double stud wide receivers. And for anyone who didn't
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: watch that show, it's based on the conditional ownership tool
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: that I now have on my site over at BlickAnalytics.com,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: which basically looks at what combinations of plays can be
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: really unique and help us separate not just the individual
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: ownerships of certain players, And while I was dead right
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: about the conditional ownership of those stud-wide receivers, one thing
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: I think I overlooked a little bit was Jameer Gibbs
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: was on the slate. And the reason why that's so
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: important is because if you have the double stud-wide receivers
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: and they both do really well, that's only helping you
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: separate if they both do better or at least match
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: what Gibbs does at a lower price tag. And that's
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: just a really hard thing to do because Gibbs is,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: I think, head and shoulders above everybody else in terms
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: of the fantasy value that he has this season compared
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: to anybody else. And, and yeah, he was on that slate.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: And so maybe that wasn't the best slate to run
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: with the conditional ownership advantage of those double step wide receivers.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: But to that point, we have, we have a slate
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: this week with no Gibbs and no B. John Robinson.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: So the double set wide receiver very much in play
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: this week. It's not going to be my leverage lane.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: I have, I think what I think I have another
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: really good one, not in the sense that like this one's,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: quite as powerful from a DFS perspective, but because it's,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: it's just another thing that it's part of a much
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: larger theme of like how I want to be better
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: about the way that I approach these main slates in
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: NFL DFS. And I think it's, it's probably going to
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: resonate with a lot of people.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, one thing I will say, I know you're almost
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: like building your own flow chart over there when you're
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: saying it like that. Like if Gibbs, not this. If
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: not Gibbs, this. Like that makes sense. But I also think, again,
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: taking it back to Slate Dynamics and sure enough, JSN
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: was in there with Gibbs. But I think all too often,
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: and I know you mean it this way, so it's
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: fair when you say stud price, right? You're going off price.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: But I will say- Garrett Wilson was, I don't care
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: about his price. He was, he was a wide receiver
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: one by a mile on his team and on the projections,
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: which almost how you got to think about it. You
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: don't want to, you don't want to call him a
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: stud or whatever. Like people don't want to say, well,
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: his price doesn't equal too high priced. You were kind
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: of calling two studs, but referring to two high priced receivers.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: Well, it doesn't, it doesn't have to be, it doesn't
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: have to be, um, so price dependent. So, uh, I'm
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: trying to find some examples, uh, this week, but if
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: I recall correctly, and like, it's, it's all been overwritten
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: at this point on the site, uh, since I have
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: this week up, but I think that even with Garrett Wilson, um, actually, yes,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: I do remember this one specifically. Garrett, the conditional ownership
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: of JSN in Garrett Wilson lineups was really, really low
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: because even the lineups that went like Garrett Wilson, Jameer Gibbs,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: if they had another expensive receiver, uh, it was Amon
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: Ross St. Brown almost exclusively, not a JSN. And so interestingly,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: even though Gibbs was on the slate, this is a
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: great point by you to bring this up. Like that
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: JSN Garrett Wilson combo was a combo that the combinatorial
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: ownership was a lot lower than what their individual ownerships
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: would suggest they should have been. And so by all
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: means that like I guess my leverage lane last week
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: was better than I was giving myself.
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: I'm not trying to give you three points particularly, but yes,
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: a little bit saying it in that sense. That's what
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to explain to people is like even doing that. Yes.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: Some probably went with JSN and lamb or something like that.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: And it's like, I want to get it. that way. Sure.
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: But in reality, going to that thought process is what
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: might have got you to JSN. And then somebody else said, Aaron, actually, again,
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: we've seen Drew Locke lineups with JSN. Last week, there
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: was Darnold lineups with JSN that were at least hovering
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: for a bit. And then other ones got there. So
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: it didn't quite show up. But it's like that's the
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: thought process that can get JSN into a Gibbs lineup,
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: let alone with Garrett Wilson, with everything else that you need.
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: And look at it, ends up at the top. So
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: just to show it off again.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Darnold was awesome last week in terms
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: of his score. And obviously JSN was spectacular. But one
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: of the reasons why we didn't see as many Darnold
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: lineups up at the top is because the Darnold lineups
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: just had a harder time getting as many spots in
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: the lineup correct because you really only had the one
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: super correlated piece in JSN hit in a big way.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: There were some commanders, like I think McLaurin would have
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: been a pretty decent play, but if you had Geno,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: you were far more likely to have Gibbs and Garrett
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq, where obviously it's not so much
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: that Geno was more valuable, it's just that by using Geno,
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: you got to more really good plays on the slate
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: that you needed to have, and that's why correlating with
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: double stack and a bring back is so valuable.
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: Last thing just on this i don't know about you
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: but i almost never do this because it's like a
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: tight end is worth what they're worth like that they're
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: the same big boy price and i believe they're both
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: wide receiver ones at tight end one there you get
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: tight end one pricing which is much lower than wide
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: receiver one pricing on essentially wide receiver one so i
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: get how people see it like that but it's also
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: a onesie position right where you so yeah you can
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: play double tight end and we'll get there but it's
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: like i would i would rather have like a cheap
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: tight end with the big boy versus the two big boys,
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: just because you're kind of wanting that to crush the
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: other one and potentially crush the low priced tight ends
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: that everyone's going to on the slate and game stacks,
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera. So I don't know your take,
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: but I don't really do that very often.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, so part of, part of a play
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: being so valuable on a slate is when that play
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: creates separation over the rest of his position. And that's
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: especially true, like at the quarterback position where there's, There's
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: only one quarterback that you use and only one defense
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: that you can use. And, you know, it's true in
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: baseball because it's like, you know, there are no utility
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: players on DraftKings. It's a little bit more complicated with
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: the flex on DraftKings because you do have the flex spot.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: And so, you know, there are you can use two
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: or three running backs. You can use three or four
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: wide receivers. You can use one or two tight ends.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: But it's still true that like when you get when
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: you get the perfect run out for, let's say, the
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Brock Bowers play. The thing that makes it so valuable
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: isn't just that Bowers gives you, let's say, 30 DraftKings points.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: It's that he gives you 30 when no other tight
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: end is within 15 points of him or within 10
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: points of him. And there's no value tight end that
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: gets to 14. And McBride is the second highest scorer
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: at 17 or something like that. And so if you're
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: trying to create separation at the position, and it's easier
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: to do that at tight end than running back or
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: wide receiver since there's only one spot there, I very,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: very rarely go to double tight end with a stud
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: tight end because the outcome where that stud tight end
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: is most valuable is when he creates that separation over
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: the position. And if he's creating that much separation over
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: the position, then I don't want somebody else from that position.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: I want someone at running back wide receiver who can
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: do a really well as well and not eat into
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: how good of a play Bowers is, right? If you go,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: if you go Bowers and McBride, for example, and they
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: both get you 30, that, That's obviously great, but it's
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: not as valuable if we also see a Parker Washington
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: 30 spot or a Garrett Wilson 30 spot or Jordan
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Addison at 5,300 gets you 25, so on and so forth.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: So when you use double tight end, when even one,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: let alone two, of those tight ends are really expensive,
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: you just force them to compete with the running backs
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: and wide receivers in their price range in a way
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: that you're not asking them to do If they're your
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: only tight end in the build. Yeah.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: Love this conversation, but you know, the, the same guy,
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: Aaron says great tight end talk. I think it's just,
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: you know, at these onesie positions, like people always just
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: overlook the thought process that's that goes into it. And
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: that's something you can build in. That's something you can
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: keep an eye on. And particularly when you're building your
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: single entry, you can really think about. this stuff. And
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: that's the same reason why, you know, like I said,
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: I tease and joke with Mayo about the defense stuff.
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: It's like for the, we're trying to win the million
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: dollars on that show. This is really focused on like
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: a single entry and high level thought process around that.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: So it's, you know, and that it's a more apt
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: to do just whatever down there, like mover. I'm not
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: really focused on that, but in here, you got to
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: really think about this because these are the moves that,
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: you know, get that one lineup that you've got to
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: separate from the rest of the field and give yourself
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: a true opportunity to win that tournament where we're We
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: also talked about this on Takedown Breakdown on Monday, but
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: it's crazy that like $ 100 single-edged with 5,000 people, people
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: act like it's nothing. Well, it's only 5,000. It's on
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: a digital application like DraftKings app, and you're seeing that.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: you know, there's 175,000 people in a $ 20 Millie maker. Yes,
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: it does look small, but go somewhere where there's 5,000
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: people in a room with you and tell me how
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: you like that. Like you got to beat every single
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: one of them. It's, it's not as small as you think.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: So you do have to actually have room for separation.
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: You got to be thinking about this when, when, you know,
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: when a lot of people say, um, Oh no, I'd
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: do that in a $ 20 Millie maker, but there's no
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: way I'm doing that in my hundred dollar single entry.
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: And then you see the scores are only, you know, 15,
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: 20 points apart. There there's room for like one mistake. Yes, maybe,
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: but it's not as far apart as you might think.
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: And so a lot of that stuff is something you'd
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: want to take on there too. So. I pulled up
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: the stone 2.0 over at ship nation.com. We can use
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: the hand builder to talk through the chalk build for
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: this week. A lot of those thoughts we had this week,
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: instead of making it, you know, specific topic, we use
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: the review. Like Alex said, we, we plan this stuff
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: pre in advance just to be able to like bring
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: it across and what's going to make the best, hopefully
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: the best show for you guys. If you enjoy it,
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: make sure to hit the thumbs up and subscribe to
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: the channel, but this stuff will come across. But the
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: funny thing is this week, it's like, it's not Gino
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: with Garrett Wilson and Gibbs, but I do think because
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: chase Brown and Parker Washington just fit so easily and
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: they feel so underpriced, et cetera, et cetera. It looks
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: like Lawrence is at least separating a little bit at ownership.
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: I know we still get spread out ownership at quarterback.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: There's cheap options this week, especially if, um, badgent starts,
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: you know, they're already talking in the chat about, uh,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: Daniel's right for Tampa Bay. coming in as the backup.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: But I mean, those I don't think are getting to
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: this chalk build. I do think we'll see a lot
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: of Lawrence Washington Brown to start. What do you think there?
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: And then what, what do you think I'm missing that
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: to help fill this thing out and get a look,
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: get a first look at it.
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I, I definitely agree that. I think Lawrence is
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: probably going to be at least one of the, the
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: two most popular quarterbacks and Washington chase Brown, Washington Higgins,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: even when people don't go to this game, they're going
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: to want a piece of this game. And I think
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: that those, you know, those like, you know, one of the,
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: one of the things we talked about almost every show
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: last year was who are the mini stacks to avoid.
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: And to me, it's this, it's, you don't want Washington
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: with chase Brown. You don't want Washington with T Higgins,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: unless you're over stacking the game. If you're, if you're
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: really just loading up, then okay. By all means, you
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: can put those guys together, but like, man, especially like
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Parker Washington, T Higgins, if you have those two and
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: they do really well, chances are you're losing to the
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: teams that also have Lawrence or that also have Joe
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: Burrow and maybe Jamar chase and do it that way.
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Cause when those two go off, the game itself is
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: probably going off and you're missing pieces that are really
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: likely just like, you know, last week, if you had,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: if you had Gibbs and Garrett Wilson and that was it, like,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: it was nice to have those guys to get you
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: a lot of points, but you were losing to the
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: teams that also had Gino Smith and Kenyon Sadiq. So
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: think of it that way. And, uh, and that's why
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: to me, like you really want to avoid those many stacks,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I think, um, Addison Hawkinson, like the, you know,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: cheap tight end chalk has, has obviously been a big
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: part of pretty much every slate this week. And I
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: think what Hawkinson and Kittle both are going to be
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: up there this week. I also think Trey McBride has
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: a chance just because, uh, there's, there's definitely some interest
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: in that game. And I think, uh, particularly on the
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: Brissette side, people are going to like Brissette, which makes, uh,
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: Trey McBride an obvious pairing with him. And, uh, so yeah, uh,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: the other guy, like I could see strange, um, steaming
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: just because people might go Lawrence strange Washington and, and
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: play it that way with, with Higgins or chase Brown
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: or both as a bring back. But, but yeah, so,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: you know, lots of, uh, Lots of cheap guys on
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: this slate that are going to be very popular, and
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: that lets people spend up at least once.
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: I'm trying just to see if I can round this
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: thing out in some way here. I can't quite find it,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: but it is interesting that a lot of the Minnesota
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: guys are popping. Obviously, we know the injuries and whatnot there,
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: but you would think just Addison, but also, like you said,
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: Hawkinson's popping. Aaron Jones is popping. I also wonder, Jeremiah Love...
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: was already popping a little bit, but also people like
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: the Cardinals defense this week. We've talked a ton about
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: this one. Just another, you know, back and forth of
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: the defense stuff. But I do think we are, we've
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: been correct a lot in the past predicting this, that
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: it's like, okay, Gerald, loves popping. Cardinals is popping. That
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: just becomes like another favorite combo. People can throw in
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: like Brown, Washington, get Lawrence. Great. Throw in love in
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: the Cardinals.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: Cool.
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: What am I doing with Minnesota? Great. Like, I don't
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: know which one it is, but let me ask you
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: this of the three Minnesota guys. Addison, Jones Sr., and Hawkinson,
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: what combo do you think is played the most? Knowing
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: that you've got the data anyway, but I'm just curious
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: what you think off the top of those two. If
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: someone's to play two of them, do you think it's Hawkinson, Addison,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: and they find a different flex? Or what are you
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: thinking there? I'm going to just play around with it
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: while you look.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let's see.
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: I'm going to go back up.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: With Aaron Jones, here we go. I want Minnesota in here.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: So with Aaron Jones, I've got Addison at 34%. I
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: have Hawkinson at 28%. Both of those are pretty much
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: right in line with what I have for their overall ownerships,
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: so no real change there. If Addison is in, I
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: have a huge increase in conditional ownership for Kyler Murray. Obviously,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: no surprise there. As I just said, pretty neutral on
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Aaron Jones. Hawkinson, though, is almost at 40% in Addison lineups,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: which basically... Like a lot of that is coming from, okay,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: people are going to pair Addison and Hawkinson when they
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: use Kyler. And so I think Kyler has a chance
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: to be a pretty popular quarterback on this slate as
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: well with his entry news. And I think it's worth
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: like just spending a moment talking about these guys and like, okay,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: we know they're going to be really popular. We know
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: why they're going to be really popular because there's no
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson. Do they deserve to be this popular? And
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: the starting point for me is always like, I do
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: think people tend to dramatically change underestimate the likelihood when
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: a really important player like a Justin Jefferson, who, yes,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: he commands a ton of usage. And so when he's
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: not in the game there, there's a lot of usage
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: that has to go somewhere else. And these three guys
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: are far and away the most likely to soak up
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: that usage. But I think people dramatically underestimate the likelihood
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: that the offense itself just doesn't function that well because
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: that player like a Justin Jefferson is the MVP of
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: the offense. He's the, You know, he's the engine of
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: the offense and they just struggle without him. In this situation,
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: they're playing a Miami defense that like there are a
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: lot of not super NFL caliber player guys on that defense.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: So I do think this is one of those situations
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: where they should be fine. They should be fine efficiency wise.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: And also this Minnesota defense might be so dominant that
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: they have a ton of play volume because the Miami
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: offense just can't stay on the field. So I do
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: think these guys are good plays. I'm not going to
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: go to the, you know, to the, to the point
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: where I say like, you need at least one in
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: your lineup, but I do think it's smart to have
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: at least one in your lineup.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I'm trying to find different versions of it. The
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: other guy I forgot to mention too, is like Wix
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: is picking up some steam late in the week now
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: because of all the news there and he's $ 4, 300. So
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: I was trying to look at versions of that, but
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: I do think people are going to try and get
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: to JSN. So I guess if I play around with
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: it just a little bit more and go here, I'm just,
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: you know, I want to get as close to what
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: I think for now as possible. And I'm just trying
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: to fill it out here. If I go with Wix
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: instead of JSN, what happens when I put the, the
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: Rams is 8,400. The Cardinals is 8,500. I guess let's
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: do this then. Let's do CMC and 3,300. What does
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: that get us? The Bills, the Packers. Maybe the Packers.
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: It's really tricky to see exactly what people will do here,
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: but I guess if I'm not playing Hawkinson, maybe we
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: go back here and maybe we do get Aaron Jones.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: He has more money and then it drops you to 3,100
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: and that can get you the giants against the Cardinals
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: kind of makes sense or the bears versus the jets,
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: whatever you think. But anyway, this is somewhat to what
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: I think roughly people could be on here. Like CMC
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: is 7,700. We know the chase Brown, Washington thing, Addison,
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: no Jefferson wicks, no Smith, no. Um, who else are
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: they missing? Goddard at tight end as well this week. Yeah.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: It's, it's an absolute wreck.
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: You know, this being an Eagles guy. So, um, you know, Kittle, um,
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: probably fits in for some people there, but there is
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: differences of ways that you could go to boost this
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: thing up at the bottom, but this gets Addison Jones.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: It could be, like we said, something different here where
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: people move stuff around to try and get somebody else in.
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: But I think overall, you know, it's going to be
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: somewhat in this vicinity at least.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: So can you go to the, uh, the question from
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: go collect about the conditional ownership with, uh, with Jones
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: and Kyler Hawkinson leaving out Addison. Cause I think I
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: think this number one, like this is just a really
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: smart way to think about really popular games like this
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: is to simply ask the question, can I stack this
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: in a contrarian way and, you know, be different that way.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: And so I, can you bring up the conditional ownership
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: tool that I have? I'll screen share for a second here.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: So there are, there are two ways we can look
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: at this. The first is what is the ownership look
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: like when Jordan Addison is out of the lineup and
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: sure enough, Kyler 1.4% conditional ownership. So that's one way
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: to see that it is pretty contrarian. The other way
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: is let's bring Kyler in and now look at the
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: conditional ownerships. We've got 86% of Kyler lineups are going
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: to have Hawkinson. 89% of Kyler lineups look like they're
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: going to have Addison. Either one of these is therefore
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: a way to stack it in a contrarian way by
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: leaving out either of these guys and including Aaron Jones,
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: who only has a small boosting conditional ownership.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: Both work.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: I think this condition ownership might be a little low.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: I think Jones might be more like 40 to 45% in, uh,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: in Kyler lineups, but regardless, like these aren't high, it's
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: going to be crazy, crazy high on both Addison and Hawkinson.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: And then the other thing is, let's see, um, if
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: we wanted both Addison and Hawkinson here, now, what do
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: we get on Jones? Like notice We're not getting a
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: massive conditional ownership discount here. Still 29% of lineups that
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: start this way. So I think we're also going to
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: see triple stacks. So if you are looking for a
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: contrarian way to stack Kyler, the answer is double stack
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: leaving Addison or Hawkinson out, not triple stack. There are
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: going to be plenty of triples.
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: What about when you turn off Minnesota and turn on Miami?
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: Just Kyler lineups.
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: Uh-huh.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: And then see what people are doing with why. Isn't
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: this the argument? Also, what are they doing on the upside?
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: Because that's typically what matters, right? Who are they bringing back?
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: And it looks like Malik Washington, right?
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Washington, most likely. Chris Bell, I think there's a
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: chance that he'll go up a little bit. I've heard
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: enough buzz from him, but obviously not projecting well, even
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: at this projection, which is not bad, 7.3 for $ 3, 700.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: He's still a negative GPP score, so I don't think
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: a ton of people are going to get there. But yeah,
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: so it definitely looks like Malik Washington is the main guy,
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: but to your point, there's not going to be a
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: ton here, right? Like we're only talking from 5% to 16%.
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: So it's about three times more likely to, to be
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: in a lineup when you're stacking Minnesota than when you're not,
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: but that's not a massive, not a massive jump in
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: conditional ownership. It's nothing like the conditional ownerships of Addison
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: and Hawkinson. And we can even simplify this. So like,
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: when you just start with Kyler, it's the same thing.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: He's still about a little bit more than three times
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: likely to be in lineups as, as overall. Yeah.
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: That's what I wanted to see. So all good there. Yeah.
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: That that showcases it so we can see, and that's
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: what you gotta be thinking about when you are building
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: out these, these lineups. So all right. What, what do
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: you want to go to first then as, as ways
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: to leverage us? I know there's a couple of different
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: stacks that, you like for this week. And there's some
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: other thoughts, any other thoughts just on this build is
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: kind of the common build. We're getting, we're pretty close.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: I think, I think we're really close. And I think
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: the main thing that, that crosses my mind is like, it's,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: it's not likely that these guys fail. Right. I think the,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: the main way we're going to have to beat this
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: type of lineup this week is by finding plays who
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: actually outplay these guys. And that's not, That's not a
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: super easy thing to do. I think it has to
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: largely come through bet that an entire game environment elevates
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: guys instead of just, you know, if you're trying to
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: build a lineup where you're just trying to hit on,
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: let's say like two or three contrarian one-offs that are
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: meant to be better values than some of these guys
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: like that to me seems like a really hard route.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: So I think the way to beat the chalk build
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: this week is, through game environments and through game stacks
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: that do better than the game stacks here, or we
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: can play things in a contrarian way. And, and, and
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: ideally then like, we're not just playing in a contrarian way,
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: but we're playing in a contrarian way where we're also
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: saving some money through the stack. So that the, when
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: we deviate from the field, we're able to deviate with
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: better players out there. Cause like, if you try to find,
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: you know, a $ 4, 300 wide receiver is going to be
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Dontavian Wicks this week. That's, that's a hard thing to do. He's,
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: he's clearly in a better position than anybody else. If
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: you're trying to beat Aaron Jones, because you have access
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: to like a $ 7, 000 running back, like maybe a Saquon
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: Barkley or something like that, that to me is a,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: is an easier way to do things. So yeah, it's
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: not going to be easy. this week, but I think
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: we probably have to do it through stacks.
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so as well. The other thing is,
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: you know, a lot of people talked about it earlier
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: in the chat. I'm not going to scroll back and
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: find all the comments, but it was about, you know,
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: just flipping the build, right? And talking about it from
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: that perspective. You've obviously got it right there, but I guess...
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: just thinking about it from this perspective of no Chase Brown,
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: no Lawrence, adding in Jamar Chase and Higgins getting a
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: little bit different in this setup. How different is that
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: actually versus what people think it might be? That's what
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: I'm curious about.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: So let's see. In lineups without Chase Brown, Higgins goes
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: from 27% to 25%. Chase goes from 14.3% to 14%.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Burrow goes from 7.7% to 5.7%. No real difference there.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: Let's check Jacksonville. Parker Washington goes from 25% to 20%.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: Simply leaving Chase Brown out doesn't do a whole lot
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: for you because, again, there are going to be a
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: lot of Trevor Lawrence lineups that use Higgins as a
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: bring-back instead or use Chase as a bring-back instead. That
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: in and of itself is not really getting you different.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: I think what might make you different is let's see
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: how many lineups are going to go Jamar Chase and T.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: Higgins.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: Let's see. Where are you, T? Oh, I'm looking. I
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: was trying to search for Higgins in the teams, and
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: no wonder nothing came up. Higgins, and now let's see
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: where some of these other guys are. Chase goes down
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: from 14% to 13% when you include Higgins. If you
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: are looking for a contrarian way to play this game,
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: I think you have to start double expensive receiver on
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati with a borough stack, the price prohibitive or the, yeah,
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: the price prohibitive nature of that stack is what's going
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: to keep that ownership down. Uh, and you probably just
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: have to find a way to make that work. If
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: you want to play this game in a contrarian way.
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: Can you do something else for me? Just more obvious one.
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: Can you just go, um, chase Brown in.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: And then what I want to, I think the way
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: you do this is now showcase Jacksonville. And we just
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: want to see how often Parker Washington is in it. Like,
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: isn't that the way to look at the secondary stack
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: the best way? Yeah.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: And you can see, so Parker Washington goes from 25
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: to 40%. Trevor Lawrence goes from 17 to 29. Let's
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: see how often, how often is this plate? So no
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, Chase Brown in Parker Washington, 18%. So it's,
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: it's not, a crazy boost by any means, but, but
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: it's still like people are going to be in on this.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: And, and so, yeah, I think, like I said, you
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: probably do not want that mini stack. I think this
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: shows why, because I mean, that's, that's a huge conditional
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: ownership on Parker Washington and that's largely through game stacks.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: And so the, the chase Brown Parker Washington mini or
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: the Parker Washington T Higgins mini, you are threading, a
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: really really you're threading a needle through like a teeny
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: tiny hole where man you need you need the game
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: to be good enough that those guys do well but
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: not so good that you need other pieces from the
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: game like that's that's a very very hard outcome to
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: land inside of it's it's like trying to middle a
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: game except you know the you know you're not you're
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: not getting the benefit of one hitting and one losing,
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: like you need that middle to be the only good outcome.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: And that's, again, that's a really, really hard thing to do.
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: Okay, now last one. This is for the exercise. This
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: is what I think people need to go with. Now
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: do this for me. Go to Higgins Inn. Okay. T.
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: Higgins Inn instead of Chase Brown. And then let me
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: see the Jacksonville guys in that lineup.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: So same thing. So Parker, Washington, like almost identical conditional ownership. Right.
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: That's not where I'm going with this. So I'm double flipping.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: This is leverage lane. So everyone thinks this game is
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: going one way. What if it just goes the other
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: and it's Tootin and Higgins instead of Chase Brown and Washington?
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: It literally would just be a flip of the game.
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: But look, using this tool, how different that is as
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: a secondary stack that you're not just automatically saying it's
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: the other way. Now, projections wise, and I can do
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: that over here and I don't need to bring the
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: screen up. I'll just quickly do it. Obviously, that matters
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: to to some. But you're this is what I want
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: to explain is the concept. So I've got Tootin and
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: Higgins roughly. around 31 fantasy points and this is a
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: good thing this is a good exercise here now let
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: me go back to uh what do we say chase
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: brown what i say 31 points it's currently around 33
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: on the other of no we could be a little
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: light on that maybe it's 35 i actually don't care
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: let's say it's 35 or 36 to 31 and people
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: just get so up in arms about giving up four
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: points or five points it's like If you're saying that's
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: in your lineup, you're not physically changing the projection. First
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: of all, you could. You can just go edit the
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: projection because you're saying it's going to go a different way.
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: But mentally, you are saying the game is going to
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: go different. So you shouldn't even be factoring in the
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: four or five points at that point technically because really
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: you're mentally thinking it. Therefore, you could be or should
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: be physically changing it in that lineup to say it's
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: actually going to go this way. And Higgins is going
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: to get those chase Brown points and Tootin's going to
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: get those Parker Washington points. So really you're flipping it.
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: And then look at, you're not threading the needle at all.
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: Like the other side, look at the difference in that
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: secondary stack. And that's the concept I want people to
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: take away from this exercise. It's you're in the same game.
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: it flipped, but you didn't flip it to like the
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: example you showed where people that all just go burrow
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: chase Higgins and Parker Washington and whatever. I mean, you've
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: almost got the same shit. We just saw, you just
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: flipped it a little bit. And actually you might hamper
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: the rest of your build because you've added in chase.
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: It probably doesn't mean you get to JSN. Like there's
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: different factors on the slate now that you've taken yourself
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: away from, but the what's the price difference. That's the
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: other thing. So what is this?
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: 12, six, right?
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: 12, six. And then I go down to Tootin Higgins.
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: And what is that one? 12, six versus 11, seven.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: You actually just picked up almost a thousand dollars as well.
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: So this is the type of stuff you want to
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: be thinking about when you're building your single entries. And
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: you're not like, am I flipping it just to flip it?
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: No.
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: But if you think about the slate at hand and
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: really what others are doing, Tootin hurts Lawrence, possibly. I
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: know he can catch passes, but I'm just saying he
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: could hurt Lawrence and Washington. Well, we just saw how
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: popular that was. And then he's at a running back position.
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: First of all, you could also play Tootin and Chase
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: Brown together. If you want to say this game goes differently,
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: you could play Tootin with the Jags D. There's other
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: ways to flip it. I'm just trying to show. And
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: now we have the tool to do it with to
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: explain it all. that these are the things that we
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: already thought about and, and spend time on, but now
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: you can actually validate them and go and look at that. So, um,
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: you know, just my two cents there, you know, bring
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: it up, bring it across that we can kind of,
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: you know, tie that in. What else, uh, what else
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: do you want to spend time on here and talk
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: about with leveraging this bill? But I mean, that was
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: just the easiest one I could start with and go to.
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, last thing on the, on the common build
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: for me is I do want to talk about the
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: running back position for a second here and where ownership is.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: Cause I, I've got McCaffrey far and away ahead of
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: everyone else. Uh, basically at 40% owned in, in high
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: stakes and single entry, 30% in MME. Um, after him though,
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: the next four guys in ownership were 19, 25, 25, 28%, uh,
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: in single entry and 21, 24, 25, and 32% in, uh,
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: in high stakes. Scataboo love chase Brown, Aaron Jones. All
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: of them are between 5,800 and $ 6, 100. Uh, So we
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: have this really weird dynamic here where people are paying
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: down at running back, but they can't go that low
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: because the DraftKings pricing is basically the bottom of the
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: super playable guys, upper 5Ks now. But man, that to
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: me does say, okay, last week was stud wide receiver
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: combinations that were going to be really unique and the
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: week prior. I wonder if stud running back combinations this
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: week might be really unique just because so many lineups
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: are going to have at least one of the guys
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: from that range that's just right at the 6K number.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: So that is something I wanted to check. And sure enough,
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: in Derrick Henry lineups, McCaffrey goes from 39.5% to 17.5%
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: conditional ownership. In McCaffrey lineups, Henry goes from 12.3% to 5.4%. Um,
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: this is of course, just like last week, you know,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: we had the same conversation. This is largely due to, um,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: to salary constraints, right? Like one of the reasons why
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: someone who uses Derrick Henry is less likely to use
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey is because it's just harder to fit him now.
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: But where we see that not come true is like, again,
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: so in McCaffrey lineups, you have, um, you have Henry
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: going from 12.3 to 5.4. You have JSN who's $ 700
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: more expensive going from 10.8 to 7.9. So less owned overall,
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: higher owned inside of McCaffrey lineups. That to me is
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: really interesting. So maybe this week we're flipping the build
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: in a different way and we're putting stud running backs together.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: And we've got Addison, we've got Wicks, we've got a
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: lot of cheap tight ends. This is not a super
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: difficult build to actually achieve here. Yeah.
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: A couple other things on that is we usually don't
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: feel like you said, it's hard to get the exact numbers.
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: That's the game we always play. And in NFL with
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: the way contest Sims push things certain times and, you know,
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: sometimes numbers get bigger than you think, or you're like,
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: oh man, that's, I thought he was gonna be close
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: to 25. He ends up at 35 or something. But
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: if you are looking at it, obviously CMC clearing away.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: then I think it's pretty obvious that it's Chase Brown,
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: most likely that Cardinals-Giants game of love, Scataboo, and then
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: you've got Aaron Jones Sr. And yes, there's guys after that.
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: But to your point, that makes it very clear on
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: the other thing, when you flip to sort of my pricing,
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: it's Derrick Henry- Sorry, it's CMC. And then it's not
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: much on Derrick Henry. Back to the well on Kenneth Walker. Nope, 20.2
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: points or whatever you got. You wasn't good enough in
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: that game. So it's like, I'm not really interested in
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: him at 8,200. James Cook had a big game, but
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: now it's all against the Patriots. Some people don't want
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: to go there. Gentee on the other side of that
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: Kenneth Walker spot. Barkley, Javante, Swift, who got cleared and
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: is healthy. Like nobody wants any of those guys. It's
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: everybody wants CMC. then it drops down to chase Brown
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: at 6,100. So to your point of all that stuff,
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: what if it's like Derrick Henry, Kenneth Walker that you need,
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: and you can still have like a kiddle at that point.
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: Cause who cares? Just that running back combination alone is
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: not going to be something that people get to. So,
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: and then by the way, Bo Nix cheap, right? And
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: then you've got most people with Bo Nix or CMC
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: lineups and Bo Nix would be more popular probably than
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: Bo Nix with, you know, Waddle and, and, Kittle or
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: Debo or something like that. So like, however you're looking
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: at that, yes, you will have to find the stacks
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: to make it work. But to your point, there is,
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: there is ways and options you can go with stacks.
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: I think you talked a little, maybe it was earlier
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: on in the show about Bo Nix and that, you know,
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: the O-line advantage that they have. He's 5,600 and his
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: receivers are not that expensive, right? If you look at
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: their pricing, it's not going to be too much. Sutton
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: is 4,900.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: And what is, um, Waddle's $ 6, 200.
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: $ 6, 200? Yeah, I got it here. Waddle's $ 6, 200. So again,
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: don't have to look at it from that perspective, but $ 4, 900
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: for Sutton, $ 6, 200 for Waddle, not that expensive, and you
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: can still get around this. So is there other stacks
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: that you like that you could say, maybe I could
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: fit this double stud running back in?
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I do think Denver is the first
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: one that comes to my mind. And that is... a
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: very like natural way to do this too, because then
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: you just use McCaffrey as the bring back. So now like, that's,
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: that's one less position that you have to really think
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: through of how to do this. But if you use
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: Nick's waddle Sutton and McCaffrey is the bring back, like
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: you still have 51, 20 for the remainder of your lineup.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: So it's not that hard to then go with a
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: Derrick Henry or a Kenneth Walker. If you go Derrick Henry,
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: for example, you have 4,300 remaining for wide receiver, tight
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: end flex DST. It's not like you can't get, you know,
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: any more like super great plays, but you also don't
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: have to use anyone that you feel bad about in
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: the lineup. So that to me is really interesting. And
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: Denver this week probably has the biggest discrepancy between like
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: strength of the offensive line and strength of the opposing
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: defensive line. Denver's offensive line has a really, really big
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: advantage over San Francisco. I think it's going to be
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: very difficult for San Francisco to get pressure and Bo Nix,
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: like he's, he's been really, really weird in the sense that, um,
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: he's most, a lot of quarterbacks that we think of,
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: we think like, okay, I want this guy to be pushed.
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: And with bone Knicks, he's been so much better against
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: bad teams than good teams that most of his ceiling
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: performances come in like, you know, 35 to 14 wins
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: where they just happen to stay aggressive in the second half.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: And less so when he gets pushed, because when they
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: get pushed, He often doesn't do that well until maybe
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, a lot like Caleb Williams last season.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: So thinking through like how you want this game to
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: play out is a little bit different, but are a
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: little bit tricky. But I also think, look, like at
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: least now he has two very clear big play wide receivers.
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: They made a very clear effort to get Sutton more
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: involved last week, only caught three for 46, but I
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: still liked what I saw in terms of the way
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: they were trying to incorporate him. So yeah, Yeah, I
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: think when Knicks has a really big game, there's a
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: good chance that it's Waddles over 100 yards. Sutton only
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: has four receptions, but two of them were a touchdown
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: and they were down the field. So there's a lot
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: of upside here. And of course, you can make this
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: Denver team very, very pass happy if San Francisco scores
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: a lot early. So I really like the way that
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: this game could shape out for their pass rate. And
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: I really like the fact that they have the offensive
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: line and the protection to allow them to be really
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: aggressive and pass happy. That makes them really, really intriguing
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: to me.
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so a couple good concepts across the board in
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: that segment. I don't want to round it out completely,
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: but I do want to talk about just some of
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: the other game stacks here, I guess, you know, cause
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: it will lead to my lane later, but what are
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: some of the other game environments that you're comfortable with?
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: I think people like, again, there's a lot of conversation
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: around Jacksonville, Cincinnati, but I also think there's like five
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: other games I'm comfortable going to and not even, you know, again,
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: we'll get to it. But I think that's my thing
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: is like, there's a lot of ways that it's just
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: not that game on this slate, in my opinion. And
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: I'll get your thoughts here first, but you know, the,
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: the Bo Nix one you brought up was a good one.
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: I think the Texans and the Cowboys is another good
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: spot to look at. And, and then you, you mentioned
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: the Broncos side, but I actually think even the San
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: Francisco side, again, we know how these lineups will get
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: stacked up, but Purdy has just been, you know, making
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: things happen. So it's, it's the more expensive side and
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: probably the we'll see probably the more popular side too,
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: because of the way it stacks up with Kittle and
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: CMC and then to Purdy. But again, as popular as
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: that's going to be, it's, you know, or again, a meaning,
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's like super popular, but saying if
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: you went to the conditional ownership and would see, yes,
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: that is popular together. My point would be that it's like,
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: then how many people are bringing a Sutton into it
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: as a run back at 4,900, things like that. Will
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: there be some? Absolutely. But it's like, again, when you
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: get to that versus all the Jacksonville Cincy stuff being
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: in that build, you still have separation there if that
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: goes your way. So what are some of the other
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: game stacks you're comfortable with? What about your, your Eagle spot?
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: there because I think the Ram side is at least
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: somewhat interesting. And then you got to play some Eagles
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: to make it move. We know Wicks is popular, but
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: Barkley's being overlooked as well, but you usually have good
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: thoughts on this game. Give me, or on this team,
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: give me your thoughts there.
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: So first I couldn't agree more with you on Dallas Houston.
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: Like to me, it weirdly like remember week one when
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: Detroit was super popular and I was like, well, Cincinnati
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: is like the same offense, you know, in terms of you,
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: you know, the same, price points for a lot of
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: the pieces of their stack and they weren't getting as
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: much ownership. Of course, by Sunday, they did get that
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: much ownership, but here, like with so many people looking
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: at the Jacksonville Cincinnati game, like Dallas Houston price wise
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: is very similar. And I'm struggling to come up with
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: an argument why the Cincinnati Jacksonville game is better. Like the,
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: I think the pace is going to be a lot
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: better in Dallas Houston. You get the Dallas defense. That's
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: worse than any defense in the Jacksonville Cincinnati game. I
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: think that Houston's defense will eventually look better than they've
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: looked so far this year. But as of now, they've
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: been attackable this season, so I'm not afraid of them.
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: And it's a really good Dallas offense. So even if
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: the Houston defense is quite good, there were plenty of
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: times where great defenses give up a lot of points
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: to great offenses. This could be one of those spots.
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: So I like that a lot. From a cheap standpoint,
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: I think we've got to give at least some consideration
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: to the Giants and the Cardinals. I would be even
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: more interested of looking at that through the Jamis Winston side.
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: Now we talked about like wanting, you know, offenses that
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: are comfortable and interested in being aggressive. That couldn't be
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: further from the truth with this Jamis Winston offense right now,
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: they are treating him with the ultimate kid gloves. They
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: do not want him dropping back. They do not want
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: him throwing down the field, but what if the game
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: script demands it? What if, what if the Arizona offense
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: comes out, they score a bunch of early on and, and,
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: New York has to throw the ball. And now you
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: get a fairly contrarian Malik neighbors at $ 6, 000 and a
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: Jamis Winston who's capable at least sometimes maybe, maybe, maybe
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: he's just washed. And you know, when, when he was
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: forced to throw a bunch in the first game that
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: he played when he was in and relief for dart,
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: like he looked really bad throwing the ball. So maybe
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: he's just not the same guy that he once was,
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: but maybe he starts to look that way again. And,
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: and if forced to be aggressive, we know that he's
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: been able to put up some really, really big, uh,
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: scores in the past and really big fantasy outcomes in
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: the past, particularly for his receivers. So I'm interested there,
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: but like, if you're doing that, you need to play
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: that game in a way that tells the story of
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: Arizona scoring a lot of points earlier. Like you probably
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: want Jeremiah love. You probably want at least one of
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: McBride and Wilson alongside of Jerry, uh, Jeremiah love. And
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: then if you have multiple bringbacks, you can single stack
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: it with just Malik neighbor. So I think that's an
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: interesting way to approach this slate. And then finally, yeah,
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: let's talk about Philly a little bit.
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: Um, But before we do, I just want to add
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: one thing, as you said there, it sparked my mind. Actually,
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: there's a couple of good spots for this this week,
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: and it's not my lane, but it will kind of
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: go with it later. But just noting it of you
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: said the single stack. with the double run back is
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: what I think you were insinuating there that that works.
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: I think really good in like this Winston lineup, because
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: you could still play Michael Wilson or Trey McBride or
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: something and have that set up. But I also think
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: it could work. Your, your favorite player of all time,
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: Nico Collins is, Um, I think it could work with
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: like Stroud Nico. and pick a couple of Cowboys. Cause
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: even like lamb just ends up being a PPR guy typically.
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: So it's like, and if he gets you more great,
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: I am, I am wanting to ceiling, but I'm saying
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: his ceiling is whatever he gets to can come off
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: of just catching the ball 10 times for a hundred
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: plus yards and a touchdown. It's like, man, that's a
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: really good game, but it doesn't necessarily mean you fully
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: need the Dak stack with him. And then it could
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: be like a Javante or a, you know, something else,
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: a tight end or whatever. So I think there is
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: a way to set some of these up for the,
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: single stacks with the double on the other side. I
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: think you're going to show that pretty strong over last
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: year as well. Yes.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: And real quick here, I don't want to forget to
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: go to the Philly LA game. Cause I think it's
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: an important one to talk through, but I want your
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: opinion on Nico here. Cause I, from a football standpoint,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: I think this is a fantastic spot for Nico. How
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: do we balance that with like, I now have pretty
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: clear and convincing data that when a guy comes back
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: off of a multi-week absence, the way Nico is here
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: that like, production, both efficiency and volume tend to drop.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: How do we combine that to come up with an
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: opinion here on Nico Collins?
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: Well, luckily for me, it's easy because I never consider
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: that stuff. It's bad probably. You're a quant for me.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: So it's somebody that brings this stuff and I should listen.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: But what I would balance with it, again, I would
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: say there is something to be said there still, which
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: is if I'm playing him as though he's a hundred
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: percent healthy and I do believe he's what makes that
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: offense move. And so I'm excited about that. Then I'm
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: counting on a full, like you needed Nico Collins. He
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: breaks the slate game and that's going to bring Stroud
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: with him. So I'm playing that together. Like if I'm
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: playing Nico, I'm playing Stroud and I'm getting all the
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: points combined from those two. I might get stuff wrong
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: in the rest of the lineup. I might get stuff,
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: stuff wrong on the other side of trying to pick
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: what's right for Dallas, et cetera, et cetera. But I
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: am treating that as though, yes, it's a risk, but
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: I'm taking it on and I'm making sure that when
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: I take it on, I'm playing for what the reward
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: would be, which is the game that I want from him.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: So definitely think you're probably onto something there. Not listening,
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: ignoring it 100%, just do my own thing by still
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: playing him. But I'm going to play him for sure
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: with Stroud this week.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I agree. And I want to spend
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: a moment here on why I think it's such a
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: good spot for him because I've seen a lot of like,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: immediate reactions to Joey Porter jr. Becoming a Dallas cowboy.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: I was like, Oh, well that makes the matchup a
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: lot tougher for Nico Collins. I couldn't disagree more because
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: what we expect for, for Porter's role is to be
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: the boundary corner in this, in this defense. And essentially
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: what that means is like every, every time, you know,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: the ball is snapped, it's typically snapped from one hash
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: or the other, or at least there's a wide side
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: of the field and a short side of the field. And,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: The boundary corner, so I think Quinion Mitchell for the Eagles,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: the boundary corner is essentially given a side to himself.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: And it's the short side of the field because then
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: the boundary is like an extra defender. The out-of-bounds line
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: is an extra defender. So you're trusting that guy to
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: handle that side of the field himself. And it allows
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: you to then rotate a safety or rotate an extra
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: underneath linebacker or whatever. You get an extra defender on
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: the other side of the field because you have this
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: guy that is so good that you trust him in
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: one-on-one coverage on that side of the field. If you're
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: Christian Parker and you didn't have the personnel to do
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: that before, you're not giving Nico Collins those one-on-one opportunities.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: Now you have a boundary corner that you actually trust
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: to do well enough most of the time that you're
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: willing to call defensive coverages that provide Nico Collins a
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: one-on-one opportunity. And that's good for the Dallas defense, most likely.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: It's also good for Nico Collins chances to get one-on-one
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: opportunities where the big plays happen and fantasy points happen.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: So even though Porter is a better corner than what
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: he would have faced previously, I think it's still a
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: positive for him in terms of what he can do,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: particularly from an upside standpoint in DFS. So Uh, the
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: only concern that I have is coming back from an injury,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: but from a football standpoint, like this is a smash spot. Yeah.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: And I want to bring up something else here too,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: because you'll go collect said Bowers was coming back from multi-week.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: It can happen. These guys can come back and big games,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: but you want to play, uh, for that. And Aaron Smith, again, we, we,
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: we agree and disagree. Sometimes you always bring the best
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: comments though. Cause you, you spark conversations that are good.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: So I appreciate it fully, but saying someone's not needed
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: is not really what it's about because like there was dead,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: like an example I'll give you right now. You know,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: there was definitely lineups where if I, let me see here,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: let me remove this for a second.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: And as you do that, as you do that, like,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: I think the, the point to think through for me
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: is when you say something like, yeah, cousins was not
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: needed where I agree with that last week is, Bowers
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: was the guy to hit in that game. It wasn't
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: like a game going off. Right. And so to me,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter if Cousins got to a score. It's
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: did Cousins also bring somebody else on his team? And
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: was there a bring back? Like, did that game deliver
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: or was it just Bowers as a one off? And
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: as has been, as is usually the case with tight ends,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: it was it was more so just Bowers. Yeah.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: And I think that's important too. Cause also that's again,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: a onesie position. Like sometimes you just need the tight
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: end and your data shows it like, obviously you could
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: just get a tight end that smashes and plug them
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: in and you don't need it. But I want to
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: reference it to a wide receiver. Cause we're talking about
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: Stroud in the original conversation, like using the JSN combo, um,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: Sully brought it up earlier, like saying like a darn
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: old JSN, um, This lineup, Darnold was not needed. He didn't,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: he didn't win the Millie makers last week, but this
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: lineup was the number three alternative to the perfect lineup
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: last week. The number two, I just left. It was,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: he was also in that one and I left it
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: out because Jeremiah love, you might not have got to that,
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: but yeah. Gibbs, Warren, Wilson, Wilson, JSN, Sadiq, Johnson. Like
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: these were, everybody was getting this, this smashed the Millie
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: maker lineup. So what's needed and what wins totally different stories.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: But if JSN has 40 points, you probably want Sam Darnold.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: If Stroud has 38 points this week, I'm sorry. If
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: a Stroud is 38, that's a really good day. And
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: hopefully Nico Collins has even more, but if Nico Collins
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: has 34 points or 38 points this week, I don't
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: know if you'll need Stroud at the top, but I'll
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: definitely want to have Stroud in those lineups because they're
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: likely all points that are attached to him. And then again,
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: I may get other things wrong in the lineup and
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: that may or may not end up at the top
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: of the Millie makers, but it could be still really
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: good and it would make sense. And that's all we
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: can build for. So I think that's the, um, the
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: way to look at it. And it won't this again,
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: I disagree all the time with you now. It's like,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: this will not be popular at all. Nobody's going to
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: play Stroud, Nico CD and a double bring back like that.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: That will not be popular. People don't even play double
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: bring backs with single stacks. First of all, like that's
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: where the data came from that Alex had, like nobody
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: plays that. They have to finish it out. They have
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: to make it make sense or do a three one
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: or a, you know, a single with a bring back.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: It's like, they just don't play that. at all. And
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: then there's also so many other ways you can get
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: different within the lineup. So I think, I think the
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: back to the original combo, the Stroud one is interesting.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: The Jameis one you brought up is really interesting. You
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: kind of just want their main dudes to come through
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: for them. And that's what drags them along. And you
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: don't need to always double stack it or triple stack
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: it in those cases. The Kyler research you did a
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: little bit earlier was very solid in saying, like, actually
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: the triple could be more popular than the double, just
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: the way the ownership shakes out this week on that
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: particular game. So I thought that was interesting. I'll let
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: you get back to the Philly conversation now. But the
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: only other thing I wanted to talk about was about,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: what was it, the... Uh, last thing here, the Philly thing,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: the green Bay spot this week, uh, love. So golden
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: Watson craft all pop. It's hard to pick a Tampa
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: Bay guy, which makes people not want to go there too.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: And so like, everyone's just talking about the green Bay guys,
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: but not getting to them. No one's really getting the
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: love because they're just not able to put it all together.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: And then nobody likes a run back in that game,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: maybe for good reason. But I'm just saying it's like
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: that's another spot that you can get to this week
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: that I think those prices almost all fit in a
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: different way of like the Minnesota guidelines, like pretty close
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: to the way Minnesota can fit. So it's just an example.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: Go ahead. Yeah.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: Last thing on that Stroud conversation there. Lineups with Stroud
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: and Pickens. You get like 90% have Nico Collins. You
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: get 6% have CeeDee Lamb. If you add Collins in,
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: so Stroud, Collins, Pickens, Bringback, only 7% also use Lamb.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: So yeah, it's definitely a bit of a contrarian way
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: to play that game. And the game itself already is
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: more contrarian than Jacksonville Cincinnati. So I do think that's
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: in play. That's one that I want to sim though
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: to see like, am I... Am I really better off
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: with the savings of Stroud over Dak than just going
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: to Dak and obviously then having better correlation? My guess
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: is that the Dallas Dak is going to seem better
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: there because even though the conditional ownership of Dak is
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: probably going to be higher than Stroud when you have Pickens, Collins, Lamb,
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: I think the correlation is just going to be worth
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: it there because you're going to get outcomes where you
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: want both Pickens and Lamb because Dak had 404 touchdowns.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: That's for sure, yeah, on that. I think one argument
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: I would say, though, just for people to know, too,
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: when I'm looking at these spots, I actually think it
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: fits really well with the Jameis one, too. If I'm
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: going with Jameis and neighbors but bringing two guys back
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: on the other side, I'm probably way more likely to
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: do it with Love and Wilson. So again, I know
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: it's ugly and people may not like this and that's fine,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: but I'm saying I would, I would, I would almost
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: never do CD and Pickens in that spot. I would
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: probably do Stroud with Nico and then go Javante with
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: lamb and like lamb is a PPR and pick it
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: up and then get Javante on the ground. Almost like
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: the love situation again, matchup and everything people, but there's
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: no way he could run. If he's going to keep
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: getting 15 to 20 attempts and Pat and targets, uh,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: I'm fine with it. But again, it's, it's telling a
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: story of how it would get there. Your point is,
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: is dead on. If you're running CD and, and Pickens
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: on the other side, just get Dak in that lineup.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: Like the world of outcomes that you're going to see
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: like that to me, you just got to find the
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: money and make it happen and then use up your
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: wide receiver spots, get the game out of Collins. But
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: if I'm wanting the big Collins game, I'm wanting it
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: with Stroud. And if I'm doing that, I would probably
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: go Javante and lamb in that spot. But yeah, just,
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: just my two cents. Want to hear about the Eagle
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: spot still. We'll end on that and then get to
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: our lanes. But let's talk about the Eagle spot before
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: we get out of here.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is another one of those spots where
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: I immediately go to one of my main thoughts, which
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: is when a wide receiver one is out, that hurts
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: the offense. And so the times where I really want
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: to make sure that I'm not playing that, where I'm
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: not more likely to play a quarterback because this wide
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: receiver one is out, is when that guy's... getting steam
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: as a result. Like there was a time, uh, there
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: was a time last year where, um, I think it was, yeah, uh,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: lad missed. And so Herbert Keenan, Allen, Quinn Johnson became really,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: really popular. And I played it and I felt like
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: an idiot afterwards. I like, they didn't go off. No surprise.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: They didn't have their best receiver. And I played into
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: like a major ownership with it when he wouldn't have
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: been popular otherwise. So that's an area I want to
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: avoid this week though. Where do we have Jalen Hurts?
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: At 1.0% single entry, 0.9% high stakes, 1.3% MME. So
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: at least you're not playing into ownership there. You also
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: have a quarterback who doesn't need to throw for 303
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: to put up a great score himself because maybe you
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: get two tush-push touchdowns from him. You get two really
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: cheap wide receivers in Makai Lemon and Dontavian Wicks. And
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: you also get a game script most likely where they
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: have to throw. Cause like, this is one of those
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: spots without question. Philly does not want to throw the ball.
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: If you know the way that they want to win
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: this game is by running the ball effectively by playing
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: pretty good defense. I think it's going to be hard
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: for them to do that when those act bond, they've
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: already been struggling enough defensively. And he's like, he's one
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: of the most important pieces to them defensively. I'll talk
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: more about that in my leverage lane, but the chances
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: that LA scores a bunch and, and, just doesn't allow
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: Philly to take that really, uh, you know, conservative approach offensively,
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: I think is pretty high. So I like hurts in
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: that regard. And then the last thing is the way
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: this regular season game went last year is LA dominated early.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: I think they were up like 26 to seven after
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: the first possession of the second half or something like that.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: LA kind of took the foot off the pedal and
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: Philly then finally started throwing the ball and throwing the
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: ball downfield and over the middle. And AJ Brown had
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: a big second half. and Dallas Goddard had a long
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: touchdown down the seam. And all of a sudden Philly
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: came back and won. And it was like, uh, you know,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: there were rumors afterwards that Jalen hurts called the plays
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: in the second half. Cause he was just so tired of,
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: but to those offense already that early in the season,
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: it was like, this was like week four or something
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: like that. Uh, point being, I think that LA will
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: not take their foot off the gas in this game.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: So I think that, uh, there's a very good chance
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: that Philly really has to, uh, be very aggressive in
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: the second half, throw the ball a lot. And so,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: even if Wix and Lemon don't have massive games, I
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: think there's a very good chance they do enough, and
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: maybe you get two rushing touchdowns from Hertz or something
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: like that, where this stack is really good. You can
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: use one bringback, you can use two bringbacks, whatever you want.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: I think that this stack is definitely under-owned. Is it
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: under-owned enough and high enough probability that I want them
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: as a single entry or a three entry? I don't know,
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: but if I were MMEing this week, I'd have at
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: least 10% and be 10x the field on on Hertz
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: stacks and feel really, really good about it.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Do you like, I mean, you went through it
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: there some, but like any of these over stacks with
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: him where it's like, you know, Wix, Lemon, and who's
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: going to be Ertz back on the roster now?
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, Ertz is going to be the main
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: tight end, but for me, it like no question, it
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: would be Hertz, Lemon, and Wix. Cause I, number one,
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: like I think Wix is good. And Lemon has been
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: used primarily in a gadget role. I think they have
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: no choice but to use him as a wide receiver
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: this week. And he's actually been better as a wide
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: receiver than a gadget guy. All the behind-the-line-of-scrimmage stuff has
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: been atrocious. The Eagles are by far dead last in
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: the NFL in EPA and yards per play on passes
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: behind the line of scrimmage. Most of them have been
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: to Lemon. Now they're going to have to throw the
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: ball downfield a little bit to him.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: And then what do you think about Puka in general?
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: And then tie back to Sean's question here. So, you know,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: popular mini stack, I think, you know, Wix and, and
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: Puka could be played together a lot, but also if like,
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: this is one of the things I always say, I'm
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: not comparing these players at all. So don't take this
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: the wrong way. I'm just noting like the facts are
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: like when Wanda Robinson would be popular, like 4,300, he's
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: like a really good cash game play. And everyone's like,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: let's play him. but then people would just play them
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: as a one-off or in a secondary stack in their
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: tournaments where they need like a ceiling outcome from this guy.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: That's kind of what you were saying there with wit.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: Like if you're just throwing wicks in, like I would
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: almost rather him be in a man. It's just so hard.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: Like if you actually are getting the tournament outcome from
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: him in what you need. And by the way, those
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: Robinson weeks that did work, it was like with a
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: Jamis ended up being the winning tournament lineups. It was,
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: you know, you saw that move to the top. It
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: almost fits it that way. A lot of people might
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: have wicks and hookah, sitting there, but who will have
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: it with Hertz, Puka, Wix, and Lemon? And then if
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: you actually get those ceilings out of those guys in
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: that Philly side that makes Puka get to his ceiling
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: and gets them to their ceiling, then who's really going
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: to have that? And that's where you just see such
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: a difference. And a lot of those secondary stacks will
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: be sitting there saying like, well, didn't get to that
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: level of the penthouse, but I did get to that
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: secondary stack at least. What do you think about this
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: as a whole and just Puka at his price tag?
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: It did say while we're live on this show, I
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: missed it earlier. Just got the news. Badgent will officially start.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: So I guess Ben Johnson could only hold it for
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: so long, but I did see somewhere. It said this
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: morning that it could be like a really limited snap
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: count for, um, for go ahead.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: I'll look it up for Puka. Yeah. So, um, if
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: Puka is on a snap count, like his ownership is
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: going to go down. So, uh, take this conditional ownership
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: projection with a grain of salt. But, uh, as of
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: right now I have, when Wix is in Puka goes
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: from 13%, which is, uh, above industry, uh, to 19%.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna have to bring that 13% down on him.
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: Cause it sounds like he is going to be limited.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: That's going to make all the LA stuff a little
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: bit messy. My inclination is that people are not going
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: to want to play Devontae Adams very much when he's
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: in his usual role and facing a lot of Quinion
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: Mitchell or Rick Willen on the outside. They need him
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: to be in the Puka role for him to be effective.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: If Puka's playing even on a limited snap count, most
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: of Adams' routes are therefore in his own role and
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: not Puka's. So I don't think people are going to
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: play Adams. I don't think people are going to play Puka.
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: It's weird. There are a lot of reasons why this
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: game is going to be on our own. And so
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: by tomorrow morning, this actually might end up being my
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: favorite game just because I think the game script is
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: so nice and so conducive to both of these teams
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: playing aggressively. And there are ways I want to play LA,
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: which again, I'll talk about. In fact, I'll talk about
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: the first one right now, which is I think Tyler
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: Higby's a really, really good pivot off some of the
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: other cheap tight end chalk. Higby was outstanding in the
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: playoff game against Philly two years ago. Higby is now
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: the only good tight end in an offense that really
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: rewards tight ends and plays a lot through the tight ends.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: We know he's capable. And the kicker is Zach Bond
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: is the reason why the Eagles have been so good
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: against tight ends in the past. Actually, in the past,
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: you could also credit some of the safety play, and
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: you could credit N'Kobe Dean for a lot. But John
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: Campbell this year, now starting with the Kobe Dean in
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas, he's been really bad in coverage. Trotter, who
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: will probably get the start in place of Bond, is
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: great against the run and is actually like a high-quality
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: backup inside linebacker, but he's not anywhere near what Bond
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: is in coverage. So I think Philly's going to be very,
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: very vulnerable to the tight end, especially because Fangio's not
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: going to change the way he calls the defense very much.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: He's probably going to call the defense as if he's
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: got a guy in the middle of the field who's
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: capable of locking down that area. So I think this
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: could be a really big kick to the game. And
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: then there's one other guy on the Rams that I
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: like a lot this week. He's going to be part
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: of my leverage lane.
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah. We can segue right there. I've got nothing else.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: I was just using, DFSOS has this news feature, which
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: I like. You guys can use code SHIPIT if you
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: want to get half price over there off the all
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: access plan, but it already had like everything from the
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: last hour 53 minutes ago from all the different beat
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: reporters everything it was all just stricter snap count than
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: usual and um you know may not be a full
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: allotment of snaps when he returns to the lineup on
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: sunday obviously we know how these things go i remember
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: the hawkinson game oh he's only going to be used
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: in certain scenarios it was like he has 10 catches
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: at the half and then you see that type of
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: stuff happen so you can't really fully trust those things
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: all the time but just in general something to think
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: about when you're looking at this here uh before we
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: go to the i mean we're going to get to
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: our lanes in a second you just kind of leaned
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: into yours so i'm going to let you segue but
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: good one here was you're just talking about our blowout
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: stat blowout over stacks dead or entry type specific? How
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: are you thinking about this data now? And I'm assuming
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: this is, are you taking this as like three twos
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: or something, or like more than that, like four threes,
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: like people that are actually just really over stacking a game?
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I, my, my initial instinct was that he was asking, like,
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: can I go triple stack with no bring back? and
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: just hope that it's like 35 to seven or something
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: like that.
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I was wondering if you're saying like the blowout
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: in the game, I guess we could take it from
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: that perspective. Like if you just had that, usually that's
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: an onslaught, right?
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: That's true. Yeah.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: Somebody just pounded, or is he saying like blowing out
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: the lineup so that you have, you know, if you play, uh, Lawrence, Washington, Myers,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: strange Higgins, chase Brown, like are those dead? Are they
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: kind of specific to the smaller field stuff? Still that.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: So either, or you can answer from any way you
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: take it, but I'm just curious what your thoughts were.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: It was, um, I meant to keep it up there.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: Go ahead.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So if we're talking about a blowout where like
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: you're asking just one team to do all the production
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: and then the other team not do anything. So like
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: a triple stack, we know bring back type thing. Those
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: really haven't been good. I think you can make a
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: case that like there are opportunities for it and maybe
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: the field just does it a little bit too often.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: And if you're really picky about it, maybe you can
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: outperform the field in finding those spots where it's viable.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: If we're talking like triple stacks with a bring back.
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: It's really hard to correlate too much. And, and I
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: think people get that wrong a lot where, especially like
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: in the big tournaments, like the Millie maker or, uh,
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: you know, high stakes, like, you know, even the five, five,
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: five Millie, for example, I think people have this idea
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: in mind that, Oh, I need to hit, I need
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: to hit for ceiling in like every spot of the lineup.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: And so if I have three guys from this offense,
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: it's just too hard to do that. that's wrong. And, uh, the,
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: the triples, like the, the overstacks in that regard have
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: been really successful in every single contest type, which doesn't
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: mean that no matter what stack you like, you should
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: try and find a way to double stack it or
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: triple stack it. What it means is you should look
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: for the stacks that you like that are in a
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: game environment where there's actually room for everybody to, to
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: really perform well and hit their ceiling together. And, and, uh,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: and price is obviously like a big part of that.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: So for example, like If you're stacking Cincinnati this week
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: and you say, okay, well, I've got Burrow, I've got Chase,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: I've got Higgins. Now let me also make it a
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: triple stack by throwing Gasicki in there. That to me
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: is a really bad idea because when Gasicki contributes, when
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: he has the two touchdown game, that's taking production from
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: Higgins and from Chase in a way that you need
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: those guys to really hit their ceilings for the double
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: expensive stack So there you do not want to triple.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: So it is game dependent. It's price dependent. It's stack dependent.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: But certainly in general, looking for opportunities where the price
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: is right and the game environment is right to triple
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: stack is a very smart thing to do and just
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: over stack in general that way.
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to tack on to that. That was
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: a great breakdown because the Gusecki example is perfect where
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: people just think like, even using conditional ownership, they'll say
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: like that, well, that makes it lower, gets me in
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: a better spot. Like, okay, but how are you actually
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: thinking about the game? Like we talked about earlier, if that, if,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: if all that was truly to happen, It's like a
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: 38 to 33 game or like a 38 to 30 game, 37, 30,
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: whatever numbers you want to use that, you know, you
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: can put out there where I would almost then want
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: like to Washington, some of that, like you may as
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: well go for it. If that, if the SEC is
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: going to be the ceiling outcome for you, that's where we,
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: like you said, people just over correlate to correlate or something.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: It's like he would, his two touchdown game that would
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: be needed and where Higgins and chase still came through.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: would almost have to be something that got pushed to
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: the other side to get this thing going off. Unless
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: you want to use, somebody said it from last year.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: I should sure. Like there was a couple of random
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: examples of the lions just chucking up 50 points and saying,
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: we're just going to run through this. And you could
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: have had an onslaught where it was like, um, golf,
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: almond rod, JMO and Laporta or something, and maybe Detroit
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: defense even or something, but those are really hard to predict.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: And then you need multiple things to happen. You need
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 2: that to be the 50 point spot. the blowout with
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: nobody pushing them and just hope that they actually go
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: through that route and then get all the guys right.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: Got to be exact combo of all those options too.
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: So again, correlating just to correlate is sometimes not the way,
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: but it can work in your favor if you get
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: it right, but really be thinking about the big picture.
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: That's the end up for me.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: To that point, G-Man said like Detroit did it last year,
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: referencing the triple sack hitting. And yeah, when I looked
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: through all this data, one of the things I realized
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: that was like, it was two or three offenses doing
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: most of the triple stack hits. Detroit was one, the
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: Rams were one, and I can't remember who the other
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: one was. But I think it was like three offenses
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: were probably 90% of the triple stack takedowns and Detroit
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: was maybe 50% on their own. And then it was
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: LA and it wasn't Cincinnati because Cincinnati was one of
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: my guesses, but it was, it was another, Oh, I
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: think it was Baltimore where it was like, Lamar was
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: so good. He brought Henry and Zay Flowers, and then
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: there was one other cheap guy that helped as well.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: You're looking for those offenses that can really put up
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: some massive scores and do so through a lot of
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: explosive plays, which is why Detroit is so often the
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: team that does this because you get the long explosive
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: touchdown run from Gibbs. You get the long touchdown from
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: Jamison Williams. You get a defense that allows a lot
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: of explosives there. So that, you know, that's the recipe
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: for these, uh, these over stack success.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: Perfect. All right, let's get to your leverage lane. You
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: hinted at it a little bit earlier. Where, where are
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: you landing at this week?
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: It starts, um, with just kind of zooming out a
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: little bit and talking about the fact that like outside
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: of the 50 K hit in week one last year,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: I've definitely felt like NFL main slate DFS has been
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: a weak spot for me. Like I've been, I've been
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: crushing NFL showdown. Uh, I've had multiple takedowns in the
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: last year and a half on, uh, the afternoon only,
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: and even the early only, but like the smaller slates.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: Baseball and PGA, I've obviously had some success. And so
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: I was asking myself like, well, what do I do differently?
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: What is potentially the reason why I'm not having success
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: and feeling like I may be making more mistakes than
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: in other spots? And ironically, I think it's that there's
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: so much time to think about the slate in the week.
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: And I'm someone who like, my favorite thing about DFS
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: is kind of solving the puzzle of the slate, right?
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: And so if on Wednesday I have the idea of, oh,
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: I want to play Brock Bowers, or I think Kyron
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: Williams is really under-owned this week, or a great play
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: this week, by Saturday, if that's the foundation of my lineup,
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: then I don't get the fun anymore of solving the
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: puzzle of the slate by saying Kyron Williams is the
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: way to go at running back. I want I want the,
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: the experience again of being able to find the diamond
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: in the rough or the, the leverage lane that I'm
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: going with. And I think that that has kind of
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: cost me a little bit where I'm, I'm trying too
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: hard or I'm overthinking the slate and I'm not just
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: playing it simply. And, you know, one of my, one
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: of my best friends and I from, from high school,
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: we have this saying of like first thought, best thought.
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: And at the time, like, you know, that applied to
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: how do I want to ask the girl out that
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: I have a crush on and things like that. But
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: now it's, you know, when, when I do a PGA
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: showdown lineup or an NFL showdown lineup, like a lot
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: of the time, um, you know, especially with PGA showdown,
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: it's like, I might have ownership finalized at 9. PM.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: I might have Sims stuff finished at nine 45. I
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: want to be in bed reading at 10 30. Like
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: I've got 45 minutes to build that lineup. I can't
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: possibly overthink things. First thought, best thought. And with NFL DFS,
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: I think so often, like I just spent so much
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: time overthinking my first thought this week before any ownership
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: read for anything was, my God, $ 5, 900 against an Eagles
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: team that probably doesn't have Zach Vaughn is insanely cheap
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: for Kyron Williams. And now we get like the added
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: benefit of there are four guys in his exact price
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: range that are like maybe double the ownership of Kyron.
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: That's insane to me. So Kyron Williams is my leverage lane,
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: but it's more of like just trusting my initial instincts
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit more and being okay with the idea
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: that Maybe the most important decision I make on this slate,
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: I made on Thursday and I don't get to make
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: again on Friday night or Saturday morning before leverage lane
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: or Saturday night in slate thoughts from my discord. Maybe
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: it's one of the very first thoughts that I had
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: on the slate.
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: I love that one too. And also I could be
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: way wrong on this, but isn't, um, the, the Eagles, uh,
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: like run, like their run D stopper guy, Jalen Carter,
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: isn't he playing with like a broken wrist or something
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: as well too? Not saying it's not going to matter.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, he can come through. He's that strong and crazy,
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: but typically that's just another thing. And you mentioned a
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: different D guy over there. It sounds like too, but
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: I just think about that, but really at 5900 getting
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: a piece of that game and being able to play
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: it differently i i really like that and it's he's
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: just under like he's a perfect pivot as well to
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: all of the options that people are landing on in
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: that range right they're they're playing chase brown right out
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: of the gates you know right there 200 bucks more
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: Aaron Jones right there. Scataboo love there. He's a hundred
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: bucks more than love, I believe. Like, so he's like,
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: everybody is right there and you can just play Kyron
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: Williams at $ 5, 900.
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And not only that, but like the, you know,
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: Fangio's defense has been spectacular.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: No question.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: Now, not this year. It's been, it's been a lot
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: worse this year, which may or may not be tied
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: to the fact that the Phillies were still alive in
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: the playoffs is his splits when the Phillies are alive
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: or not. He's a huge Phillies fan. For those who
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: don't know is a, is shocking, which also just might be,
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: you know, it, he's really good at making adjustments and
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: kind of figuring out what his defense is doing poorly
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: and how to react to that, so on and so forth.
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: But the style of offense that he has had the
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: most issue with, think Chicago, think San Francisco in the playoffs,
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 1: think these Rams, is the team that is really good
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: run first and play action. And he's had trouble all
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: the time against this type of offense, and now you
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: add in the layer of no Zach Bond. So yeah,
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: I think the Rams offense is going to have kind
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: of a field day with the Eagles defense this week.
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: I'll be very pleasantly surprised if I'm wrong about that
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: as an Eagles fan myself, but I think, I think
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: they're going to roll. And I think Kyron Williams is
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: going to be hyper efficient. If, if, if Puka is
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: limited a little bit more than usual and, you know,
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: we know how weak they are in the tight end room.
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: Like there's also a chance that he's more involved in
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: the past game than he's been a lot over the
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: last year. So yeah, I think this is an awesome
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: spot for Kyron. And even though Coram is getting a
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: lot of work, To me, if there's one reason why
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: Kyron's ownership is suppressed as much as it is, it's
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: because people are worried about Corum just eating into his workload.
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: As true as that is, Kyron still has pretty much
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: a stranglehold on the high value snaps. More targets than
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: Corum and more red zone opportunities than Corum. He's got
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: three touchdown upside written all over him in this one.
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it. Very, very direct call to this week.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: Mine is going to be a little more generic, but
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: it's based around everything that we talked about. So I
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: mentioned it. I think there's at least five other games
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: I like more than the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jaguars spot.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: I get why it's super popular and there's so many
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: names within it. In my main lineup, my main single entry,
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: which is what our leverage lane is for, I will
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: have nobody from Jacksonville or Cincinnati. I know they project
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: off the page, but there'll be no Brown, no Higgins,
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: no Tootin, no Washington, nothing. five other games that have
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: better spots. And once I build them out, I may
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: throw Williams now into that spot that others will have
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: this in just because I like that call. So I'm
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 2: pretty hard on this one thinking that it's going to
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: be the thing that I'll be able to stick to easiest.
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: And for me, yeah, I have a bunch of other
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: games that I'm going to that don't require me to
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: go to that game. I think a lot of people
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: are starting their lineups with Jags and Bengals or both
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: and then moving from there. And so that's an easy
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: one for me. So for my main lineup, fading the
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: Jags and Cincy game and going to somewhere else. So,
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: all right.
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: Let me, I might have the answer based on your
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: leverage lane, but like one, one thing I wanted to
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: talk through with you is what to do with Jamar chase.
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: Cause on the one hand, like it looks like chase
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: Brown and T Higgins are going to be the more
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: popular Bengals. If you have the upside of Jamar chase
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: as a leverage playoff of two really chalky plays on
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: the slate, like, Man, that could be awesome, but it
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: also feels a little bit risky because when chase goes off,
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: like that game is more likely to hit and I
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to play that game with you in that regard.
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: So how do you feel about like using chase as
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: a one-off or, you know, you, you made the point
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: early about like Higgins and Tootin as flipping the bill.
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: Like what if, what about chase and tune?
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: Does that work? It could, I will say this though.
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: And I've stuck to this one pretty hard. It's like
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 2: a Jamar chase break. The slate day is usually a
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: burrow day or a game stack. You said it best
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: it's or it's, or it's the other side and it's
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: just going to be a bad day all around because
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 2: like that lineup has that now in my portfolio, we
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: are lane is for single entry. It's not a cop out.
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: We are very clear on this. You'll go check my
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: single entry. It won't have this, but in the other
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: stuff I can just build differently. Like I already looked
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 2: at some stuff. I've got some, I found one lineup
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: I liked was like, again, people won't like it probably,
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: but it was, I think it was Lawrence. tootin and
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: i can't remember was myers or btj who you know
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: people just thinks is dust and sucks he probably is
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: that's fine but i just for one slate one event
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: i don't care i think it was like those three
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: with higgins or something and i was like damn that's
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: like kind of and then everything else looked clean i
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: was like that's interesting so when i'm playing that game
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: it'll be the flips that I talked about. I like
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: toot and Higgins because Higgins, if he has two touchdowns,
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: really good for burrow as well. But also what is
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: he 60, you know, something like he's not as expensive
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: as $ 8, 100. Yeah. 6,100. If $ 8, 100, Jamar chase hits 40 points. Again,
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 2: I just think it's burrow or it's the game stack
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: with Washington and maybe not Washington, but at least Lawrence
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: or burrow at the helm. So to me, I think
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: that's a good call out by you. But I think
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 2: when you get a price of 8,100 and making that happen,
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 2: it's going to typically be something like that. And I'm
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: just not as interested in that for this week.
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: That's, that's my instinct, but man, like it's really, really
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: rare that chase is the contrarian guy in this offense. And,
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: and I do think the Jacksonville defense, um, probably a
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: little bit of a pass funnel. They have given up explosives.
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: Now a lot of teams like, um, The big three
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: or the big four, I should say, like over the
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: last three years or so, Cincinnati, Philly when A.J. Brown
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: was still there, Dallas and Kansas City, like teams who
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: play a lot of single high don't play a lot
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: of single high against those teams. So the fact that
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville has played a decent amount of single high and
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: they've given up explosives, that doesn't necessarily translate here. But
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: on paper, there are a lot of things about this
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: matchup that say this is a chase game. combined with
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: the potential leverage over his teammates. I'm interested. I want
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: to see what the Sims say, though. To me, that's
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: like a perfect use case for a really good contest, Sims,
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: which I think we've got over at Blick Analytics, where
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: am I playing too risky of a game trying to
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: get the chase ceiling that leverages his teammates while also
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: not allowing for the game as a whole to blow up? That,
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: to me, is something that the Sims can answer better
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: than probably our human brains can.
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: For sure. And I think another angle would be like
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 2: the leverage stuff that we talked about that didn't fully
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: go into, but we at least spent time on was
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: like the running backs at his price tag. No one's
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: going to like, you know, just at his price tag
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: alone and going by price, Derek Henry, 300 bucks more
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: Kenneth Walker, a hundred bucks more. Um, you know, the
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 2: other guys down below, like you said there, and then
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: the other one, even at wide receiver, I talked about already,
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: but I like Nico Collins. I actually like, um, you know,
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 2: the Higby call you made earlier, but I think that
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: it's crazy that almost nobody's going to play Devante Adams
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 2: and I can play Stafford Adams and Higby, which is
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: literally what we've seen go off in the past when
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: we're missing all these other guys. And is $ 6, 900 on
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 2: this slate. Whatever argument you're out there making for Parker
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: Washington being too cheap, and I know the matchup got
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 2: better for him in the slot with the injuries and stuff, too,
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: on the other side for the Bengals. Like, we live
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: and breathe this stuff. We know this. But I'm saying,
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: whatever anyone's arguing about the price is too cheap, like...
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: And regression I get like, again, we follow all this stuff,
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: but it's again, one game. We have no idea what's
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 2: going to happen yet. Zay flowers at his pace was
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: on like is nuts. What he's on pace for right now.
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: We actually played all the snaps. He was still heavily
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: involved even with the limited stuff last week. They used
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: him in the high leverage spots. So it's like there is.
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: And also if you're not on Derek Henry and you
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 2: really think they are still going to put points up
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: on Tennessee, like you can get to him. Nobody, you know,
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: you go look at the other stuff, Christian Watson, nobody's
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: really playing him and i talked about the green bay
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 2: stuff like there's just so many ways that i can
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 2: go on this slate and that's the last thing i'll
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: say is like the attachment pieces when we talked earlier
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: about like jsn and like who you need to have
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: obviously it is better to have um you know darnold
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: when jsn scores 40 points but like a christian watson
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 2: could score 24, 25 beat all the guys around him
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: by a decent margin or like enough and be involved
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: that way. But no one's really playing love or anybody
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 2: in that game. So while he would be attached to that,
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: my point is more of like, it's, it's also not
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: just who you're playing. It's to Alex, but who you're
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: not playing. If the field, who the field is playing
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: and who they're not playing. If Jamar chase hits, we
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: already know people are playing borough and Washington and Lawrence
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: and tootin and chase brown etc etc it's like you're
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 2: going to be attached to something that's so heavily owned
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: by the field if watson hits it yes it would
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 2: probably be nice to have him with love but there's
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: a chance and he's that much cheaper as well he's
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: 60 i'm just using him as the example 6700 versus
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: 8100 chase and he's not really attached to anything like
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: nobody is really playing that game or that spot or
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: whatever so it's like you can get away with a
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: little bit more from that perspective as well right yeah i.
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: Like this I like the slate. I think it, uh,
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: it sets up well and, and, uh, it, it's going
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: to be a hard one to, to win with like,
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: you know, a low scoring slate. Cause I just don't
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: see all of the chalk failing this week, but I
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: think there are, there are definitely spots we can leverage.
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: And I think more so than like, there's fragile chalk
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 1: this week. I think this is one of the weeks
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: where there are a number of lower owned guys who are,
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: really do just set up well and and uh and
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: we have potentially inefficient ownership that way so i think
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 1: that's that's what i'm most excited about here yeah.
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 2: Give aaron a props on the way out a good
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 2: one here is people are playing love it is just
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: the one from arizona yeah we could call this one
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: Loveridge Lane and you could leverage love by playing the
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: other love and just going different and not using the
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: Arizona green, the Arizona giant spot in playing Jeremiah love
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: and play Jordan love with his past. Or you can
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: put them together. Double love if you wanted this week
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 2: as well. So I think this was a fun one.
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: Hopefully you guys enjoyed. Let us know in the comments below.
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 2: Make sure to hit the thumbs up. Subscribe to the channel.
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: We'll be back next week, same time. Got all the
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: other shows and coverage starting tomorrow with myself, Hoop, and
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: Tidal breaking it down tomorrow morning at 9 a.m. Eastern.
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it for this one, guys. For Blickle,
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: for myself, and for my voice, good luck in your
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: contents this week. Let's ship it!