Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | Discipline | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/23/26

Transcript

Tuesday BEST BETS | Discipline | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/23/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Hole in your chase the black coffee on the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 3: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: Like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor, your name, steal me
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something ne somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: Nine. Hold on, hold on nothing night not now. Hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: Hold on me, but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: hold on.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: And stay with me. Now, what's up, buddy?
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: It's towed back with you with toadstil Sports for Tuesday,
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: June twenty third, one and one.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: On the show.
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: Yesterday, we got the under right in the Houston Toronto game,
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: which landed four to two.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: Not much to say about it. I think it was
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: the right call.
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: The Cubs game got rained out, and one thing that
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: I forgot to point out about that game was it
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: was even better I thought as a play because the
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: Mets had played the Sunday night game, so they had
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: a quicker turnaround time. But the game got rained out,
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: so the Cubs haven't played in three days, so just ridiculous.
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: And I gave out a play on both of those
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: days and both games got rained out and then we
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: did not win on Cleveland.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: Dude, we should have won that game.
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: I mean yeah, I mean the way that the game
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: was going, it looked like it was gonna be a
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: definite loss.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: Cleveland couldn't score. They were down three to nothing.
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: I think in the seventh inning or whatever, Cleveland tied
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: the game at three.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: Then they fell behind four to the three.
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: But then they scored two runs on the top of
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: the ninth inning, So now you're winning the game five
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: to four.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: And I thought they were gonna bring in Gaddus again.
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: I think they used him as their closer, but he
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: pitched the previous night. Still you could use him two
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: days in a row. Nope, they didn't do that. They
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: brought in one of the other guys, and they blew
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: the game. They were winning five to four in the
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: bottom of the ninth inning. They gave up two runs
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: on the bottom of the ninth and lost the game.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: After making it look.
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: Like they were gonna win, Dude, you're gonna lose. Just
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: lose the game five to nothing or something. Don't take
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: a five to four lead and then blow it in
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: the bottom of the ninth. I mean, come on, so
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: I'm not happy about that. A one to one day,
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's a slight loss. It's not great. I
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: don't like the board today. A ton I'm gonna give
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: out two baseball players. I do have a couple other
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: opinions in baseball that we're somewhat close.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: I guess ish. I don't know. I'll talk about those
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: games as well.
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: There's one World Cup game that I kind of like
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: more than the rest, but I don't know that it's
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: really worth actually putting money on. And WNBA, there's one game.
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: It's a pretty big game, but I'm gonna pass on
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: that and give whatever my opinion is on it. Macado,
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Yeah, well Cleveland, fuck them. No,
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: I don't think so bet on whether a game is
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: gonna get rained out?
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: All right, Houston in Toronto.
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: I don't know why this is an earlier afternoon game.
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: It's a very weird start time here, but this game
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: is starting earlier than all the other games for whatever reason.
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: Toronto won the game four to two yesterday. As I mentioned,
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: Toronto used three relief pitchers in that game. Houston used four.
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: Toronto probably does have the better bullpen. Don't know how
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: much I trust either bullpen here, even though I did
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: go with the full game yesterday, because Houston has been
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: better in that department recently and Toronto had the day
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: off prior to that, so that was the reason why
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: I did that. Whatever I do here, I probably don't
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: really want to rely on the bullpens in this one.
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: Toronto is number thirteen arranging bullpen by Whip, Houston is
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: twenty first, although they've been getting better. Like I said,
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: I do like both these starting pitchers here. Peter Lambert
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: is pitching for Houston. He's having a good season now
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: that he's in a different environment than where he he
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: was for most of his career. Three point two to
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: three e RA, one point one to one WHIP that's
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: pretty good. Good on the road, two point nine to
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: one road ERA. He's been really good this month. Really
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: good numbers here this month. Good strike out walk ratio,
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: hasn't hasn't walked anybody in his last two starts.
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: Low hit rate, yeah, hasn't.
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: Allowed many runs at all, his rays below two in
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: three starts this month. He's got at least five innings
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: in every start for the past two months. Basically, he's
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: got a really low hit rate on the season. His
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: walk rate is still a little bit high though, but
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: he's been getting better with that.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: His strike out rate is kind of mediocre.
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: I think he's pretty good though in Toronto hasn't done
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: well against him. In a small sample sixteen at bats.
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: They only have one extra base hit, which is a
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: double from Jesus Sanchez. One eighty eight batting average, four
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: to thirty eight ohps three, zero strike out walk ratio.
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: So I think Lambert should set up to pitch well here.
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: Shane Bieber will be going for Toronto, and he was
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: potentially gonna start yesterday, but I mentioned that I did
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: not like the under as much if he was gonna
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: start yesterday, specifically because he does not have good matchup
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: numbers against Houston. So I wanted the under if it
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: was Dan Cease, which it was, so we did get
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: that one right. Bieber will be making his return from
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: injury again, and like I said yesterday, I generally do
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: like when pitchers are veteran pitchers and they come back
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: from injury, and Bieber has had a really good career
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: and he was good in his short season last year
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: before he got injured again. Well, he came back from
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: injury and then he got injured again. He can't stay
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: healthy as kind of the problem. Like when he's out there,
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: he does pitch well. And I think again, these veteran
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: pitchers when they come back from injury, usually they're ready
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: to go. The team could rally around them, the team
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: would get excited they have one of their starters coming back.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: So I think these pitchers do tend to do well
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: in their first game back.
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: But he does not have good numbers against Houston, like
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: I just alluded to, and I mentioned it yesterday. They
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: have a three eighty two batting average, nine to fifty
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: nine ohps against him in fifty five at bats, nine
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: to three strike out walk ratio. So I don't really
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: want to back him here. Do I want to fade him? No,
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: not really, But the money is actually doing that. Sixty
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: six percent of the tickets on Toronto, fifty eight percent
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: of the cash. They're in the minus one thirties here.
• 7:29
  Speaker 4: I mean, I wouldn't really disagree, like based on the
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: matchup numbers that maybe you could slightly lead towards Houston here,
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: I would probably limit it to the first five if
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: I did that, but I still don't really want to
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: fade Bieber though. I could still argue for the under
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: in this game, but the matchup numbers do really worry
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: me enough that I wouldn't want to do it. But
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: it looks like the over is kind of public eighty
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: two percent of the tickets, eighty seven percent of the
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: cash on it though at eight and a half. I
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: think you could argue for the first five under here though,
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: because I do think both pitchers are good and they're
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: capable of that. It's just the matchup numbers with Beaver
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: or worry masa whatever, But first five under makes a
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: little bit of sense somewhat. Kansas City and Tampa Bay.
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: I'm kind of surprised Tampa Bay did not win that
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: game yesterday. Kansas City, well, Tampa Bay, I mean, could
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: get no offense going in that game, and that's what happened.
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: Like it looked like they should win that game with
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: Rasmussen against Waco, who didn't have good matchup numbers. Waka
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: not a bad pitcher though, and he did do well yesterday.
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: It looks like so Tampa lost the game two to
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: one to Zach's Royals here.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know if the Royals can continue to do that.
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: Royals used two relief pitchers yesterday, Tampa Bay used three.
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: Royals have a pretty bad bullpen though, twenty eighth. That
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: is not good.
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is sixteenth, but their era is in the
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: mid fours, which is still not great. So I don't
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: love either bullpen here. Tampa Bay seventeenth in offense Kansas City?
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: Where are they at eighteenth?
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: So they have moved up a little bit.
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: I think they were around that when we went into
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: yesterday's game too. Obviously yesterday there was not much offense
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: in that game with Rasmussen continuing to pitch really well
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: for Tampa to Kansas City in this game is going
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: with Lwinder Avila, who doesn't have good numbers. Five point
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: five year array, one point six to five whip. However,
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: I do think he's better than that. He's still young,
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: he's twenty four, and if you look at his numbers here,
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: he's got a one point eight roady array.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: He's made some shorter appearances.
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: Because he was coming out of the bullpen for a while,
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: and then he's had one start that was really bad
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: against Houston one awful home start. That's really throwing his
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: numbers off, because if you look at all the starts
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: around that, his three other starts this month, he went
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: at least five innings in all of them and allowed
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: one ear in run in each of them, so he
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: is not as bad as his numbers suggests. His walk
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: number is still questionable, though he did better in that
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: arena in the last outing against Washington, who are a
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: good offense. That's a decent sign that he pitched well
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: against Washington, but his walk number is still way too high,
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: so that is a concern. His strike out rate is okay,
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: his hit rate is a little bit too high, still
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: too so still not fully trustworthy, but that one really
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: bad start is definitely skewing his numbers and making him
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: look worse than he actually is. He's capable of pitching well,
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: and Tampa Bay has never faced him before, so it
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: is possible that he actually pitches al right here, and
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: having that unfamiliarity can be an advantage to the pitcher
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: when the offense hasn't figured him out yet and they
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: haven't been able to see him before. Tampa's going with
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: Shane McClanahan, who is the more established pitcher here, obviously
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: three point three to three ERA one point two to
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: three whip is getting a little bit high two point
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: zero five home era though he's been really good at home,
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: but he's struggled recently, failed to make it past four
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: innings in either of his last two starts.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: They were both on the road.
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: One was against the Dodgers, so maybe give him a
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: pass for that, but he walked five guys in that
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: one against the Dodgers. He's kind of slipping out a
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: form here right now. Man, He's not in good form
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: right now. Maybe he does do better at home against
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: a Royal offense that is, I believe they're the worst
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: offense in baseball on the road this year, the Royals.
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: So it does seem more likely than not that McClanahan
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: should have a bounce back here, But there are some
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: indicators that maybe that won't happen. Like again, he's in
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: bad form and his matchup numbers actually are not that good,
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: but it's a really small sample fourteen at bats, only
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: four of the hitters have faced him, but they do
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: have a two eighty six average nine to twelve ops
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: against him, six to three strikeout, walk, ratio.
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: I don't really want.
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: To rely on McLanahan here, although generally he is a
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: decent pitcher.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: Throughout his career, he's been good.
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: Does have a pretty high strikeout rate this year, low
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: hit rate in his walk rate is getting a little
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: bit up there. That walk numbers a little bit of
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: an issue, but other than that pretty good.
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: This is a pass for me.
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: But I do think Tampa Bay might be favored a
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: little bit too heavily here at minus one point eighty
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: something close to minus one ninety given what the matchup
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: looks like here. This Avila guy, I mean, people don't
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: know who he is at this point, so he might
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: be a little bit under the radar here eighty five
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: percent of the tickets ninety two percent of the cash
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: on Tampa. There is an argument here, based on those
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: matchup numbers to play Kansas City in the first five here,
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: I would not want to deal with their bullpen, but
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: you could take Kansas City plus a half run in
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: the first five or something and they might be able
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: to hang around in that game. The total in the
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: games eight, the money is playing the over fairly strongly
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: in that game.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: I can kind of see the arguments for that.
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: I mean, if you want to go full game on
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: the over, you get a couple of not good bullpens here,
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: and it is possible that both starting pitchers have some
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: issues there, so maybe there's an argument for it, but
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: that's all I mean. That game is also a pass
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: for me. Yankees at Detroit. Detroit got the win yesterday.
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: They've won four games in a row now. They won
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: five to three yesterday, beating the Yankees. Yankees are on
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a skid right now, three game
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: losing streak. Clearly they're the better team, though, although this
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: matchup for them. In today's game, it looks like it's
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: not the best. Yankees used two relief pitchers yesterday, Detroit
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: used three. The Yankees do have the better bullpen here.
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: They are number eight and Detroit is number eighteen. Detroit's
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: not too bad lower than a four era at least
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: out of their bullpen.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: Yankees number two in offense.
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: Detroit is doing a little bit better recently, but number nineteen,
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: So the Yankees do have an edge in both the
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: bullpen and in the offense, even though they're still without
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: Aaron Judge. I'm pretty sure, but they've been hitting pretty
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: well anyway. Yankees, however, their offense is not good on
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: the road, and they are going with Carlos Radon, who's
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: been decent three point five ERA, one point two to
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: five whip is okay. He's not as good on the
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: road though. Four point zero five roadyra pitch well in
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: his last sounding against the White Sox. He's had a
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: decent strikeout rate here, but his walk rate's been kind
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: of high so far. He's only made whatever this is,
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: seven starts so far. He's got a low hit rate,
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: but his walk rate is way too high right now,
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: and his strike out rate is good, so he's pitched
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: fine generally, but this walk number is a bit of
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: an issue, and his numbers against Detroit are actually not good.
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: In fifty three at bats three point forty average allowed,
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: eight forty seven ops, although strike out walk ratio is
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: good nineteen to three, so the walks have not been
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: his issue against Detroit.
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: His issue against Detroit has been able to hit him.
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: So this does not look like the greatest matchup for him,
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: and he's in the worst of his home road splits here,
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: and he'll be going up against Casey Mize, who is
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: pretty good and I think still under the radar. He's
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: been good this season two point five to eighty RA,
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: one point zero one WHIP. He's been really good at
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: home one point two to seven homey RA. So Detroit
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: does have the home road splits in their favor. From
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching here, Miz came back from injury and
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: wasn't great against Houston though on the road. I believe
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: we had an under on the show in that game
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: and it won. But he did give up three runs
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: in four and two thirds innings, six hits. Maybe give
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: him a little bit of a pass because he was
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: coming back from injury. Did still have three strikeouts and
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: only one walk, which wasn't too bad. And in general
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: his numbers are pretty good here, pretty decent strikeout rate here,
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: low hit rate, low walk rate, and he does have
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: good matchup numbers against the Yankees and forty two at
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: bats sixteen to four strikeout walk ratio won sixty seven
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: average a lot of five ninety six ops. So Miz
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: has the better matchup numbers here, has the better of
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: the home road splits.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: I like Detroit here.
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: This this almost made my card Detroit first five. I
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: think definitely makes sense in this game although I worry
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: kind of that the Yankees are gonna be a bit
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: extra motivated because they've lost three games in a row.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: Don't necessarily know if I want to do it.
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: Myz, you know, a little bit iffy in his last start,
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: Rodon sort of in better form here.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: Yankees are a road favorite.
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: Of course, they are not by much though They're around
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: minus one ten, minus one twelve on the full game.
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: So it does look too easy to play the Yankees
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: to bounce back, because you know the public is going
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: to play the Yankees here because they're the Yankees. Seventy
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: eight percent of the tickets, sixty four percent of the
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: cash on them, so the money is fading the Yankees here.
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: I agree.
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: Like I said, this was very close to making the
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: cut for me, I would play Detroit first.
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: Five on the money line is what I would do
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: in this game.
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: The total is also low, which does help the case
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: for the home underdog here, expecting that if it's a
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: lower scoring game, it means it's more likely for the
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: underdog to be able to hang around for a while.
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: Seven and a half is the total, but the money
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: is playing the over in that one. But yeah, I
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: think Detroit first five makes the most sense in that one.
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: Next game is gonna be one of my plays, and
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: the money is not agreeing with me. But we'll see
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: if it changes throughout the day. But I like pretty
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: much everything about the way this game sets up. In
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: the next one here, we're gonna play Seattle on the
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: money line at minus one twenty five against Pittsburgh. Both
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: of these teams were off yesterday, so we do have
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: some rest here. But for Pittsburgh, they're returning home from
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: a road trip, so I think that's a big negative.
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: They were out on the Pacific coast, so they're traveling
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: sort of cross country. Here they're in Sacramento, and then
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: they were in Colorado in elevation.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: Now they're coming back home.
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: And I know Pittsburgh is better at home, I get it,
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: but they're only one game above five hundred at home,
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: believe it or not. Seattle's slightly below five on the road,
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: but Pittsburgh is not like this home powerhouse, even though
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: their offense does do better at home. But you know,
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: it's a negative spot when a team returns home from
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: a road trip.
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: I think it's a fadable spot.
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: And in baseball, when a team returns home from a
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: road trip and they're an underdog. They they lose like
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: a decent majority of the time, which makes sense because
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: they're an underdog, so that means that the objects are
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: telling you they're less likely to win that game. But
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: it's typically it's a better play to fade that team
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: in the return home spot when they're reverse small underdog,
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: and that is what the case is here. So I
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: think it's a negative that could be a bit distracted here.
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: It's an interleague game. I don't know how much they're
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: really going to focus on Seattle, though I know Pittsburgh
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: is at five hundred now, so that's a little bit
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: of a motivator to not fall below five hundred. But
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: this is still a negative spot in here. And I
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: think when a team has that extra day off, I
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: think it actually hurts the team because I think it
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: adds to that like return home just diraction, like you
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: kind of get you start to get settled in. Meanwhile,
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: Seattle is starting a road trip and I know they're
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: traveling cross country here, but they ended a two game
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: losing streak by beating the Red Sox back on Sunday.
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: Didn't play yesterday, but West Coast to East Coast is
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: a lot easier than East Coast to West Coast. As
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: I always say, because these guys are they're baseball players,
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: they play after noon games a lot, So this is
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: gonna be like playing an after noon game as a
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: West Coast team, you know, and you have energy in
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: the middle of the day, whereas when an East Coast
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: team goes west, you're having to play until like potentially
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: like midnight your time.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: Or something like that.
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: I think that's a much worse scenario where you can
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: run out of energy. I think playing earlier in the day,
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: basically your biological clock, is a lot easier to do. Plus,
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: starting a road trip is a focused spot. Typically, Seattle
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: only one game above five hundred and barely hanging on
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: to a lead in their division, they should be motivated
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: as well. And then we're gonna look at the pitching here.
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: I think Seattle has the better bullpen both bullpen's arrested.
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: Seattle is ranked where are they at fifteenth, but they
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: have one of the better bullpen errays, so they're better
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: than that ranking would would suggest. Pittsburgh is where are
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: they on a twenty second with like a mid for Zra,
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: So Seattle definitely has a bullpen advantage here. Pittsburgh does
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: have the offensive edge. They're tied and forth with Washington.
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: Seattle hasn't been good recently in that department, the number
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: twenty three. Seattle's had a lot of injuries, like guys
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: in and out of their lineup, like cal Rawley just
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: came back, and then some other guys got hurt, Like
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: I think a Rosa Reina is out of the lineup
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: right now, and a couple other.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: Guys might be.
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: So yeah, Seattle, they're missing some guys. But I still
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: like the situation here, and I like the pitching matchup here.
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: We're gonna back George Kirby here, and I know we're like, well,
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: why would I do that? Because his numbers aren't really
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: that good as far as Seattle's pitchers go. He's not
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: one of their better pitchers. Four point one era one
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: point three to one whip that's very mediocre, maybe even
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: worse than mediocre with that whip. But he is better
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: on the road, which I know it doesn't make sense
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: because Seattle is a better pitching park, but whatever, three
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: point four to four roadra for Kirby, So he's better
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: on the road and He's been pretty good this month
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: in the in the control department, twenty to four strikeout
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: walk Razer does.
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: Indicate that his command is there.
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: In sixteen innings, even though Seattle's lost all three of
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: his starts, he was way too hittable against the Mets,
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: and I know that's a bad sign because the Mets
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: not a good offense. But he's kind of settled down
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: since then. He had ten strikeouts in the following start
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: against Baltimore, then had to face Baltimore immediately again and
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: pitched pretty well again against them, So he seems to
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: be coming back in a form here.
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: To me, his overall numbers, his hit rate is too high. Yeah,
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: you gotta admit that it is.
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is fine, strikeout rate is kind of
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: but he's not really a strike up pitcher. He does
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: induce a lot of ground balls, which might be part
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: of the reason why he's better on the road. But
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: I think he has a decent match up here, believe
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: it or not. Even though Pittsburgh is a pretty good offense.
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: He's held him to a two thirty four average and
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: six thirty five ops throughout their careers in forty seven
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: at bats, so it's not a small sample size. Ten
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: strikeouts four walks isn't that good, but he's got good
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: numbers against them, seems to be coming back into form.
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: He's in the better of his home road splits here,
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: and he's going up against Mitch Keller. And even though
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: I know I've mostly had positive things to say about
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: Keller here, and I do think he's kind of an
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: under the radar pitcher because he is not really a
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: strike up pitcher, but he has not been good recently,
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: and his numbers are definitely worse than Kirby's four point
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: nine two ERA one point three to two whip not great.
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: Both their whips are kind of similar. But Keller is
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: also in the bat of his home road splits here
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: five point seven to seven home ERA. So we have
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: the home road splits in our advantage here, we have
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: current form and our advantage in my opinion, because Mitch
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: Keller has a fourteen to eleven strikeout walk ratio this month.
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: That's not good and he's allowed way too many hits too.
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: Although you do have to weigh this accordingly because this
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: was a road start against Atlanta, home against the Dodgers,
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: and then on the road at that A's ballpark.
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: So none of those starts were easy.
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: Yet I get that he's stepping down in class to
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: face Seattle.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: But still his command numbers have been awful recently. He's
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: not in good form.
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: He wasn't good in his last start in May either
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: against Minnesota, and really three out of his last four
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: starts in May weren't very good. So he's not pitching
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: well right now. He's got a pretty low strikeout rate,
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: which is the case with him. He's not a strikeout pitcher,
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: low hit rates still, but his walk rate is pretty high.
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: So that's been his major issue here, especially recently. And
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: you know what's coming. He does not have good numbers
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: against Seattle. They have a three thirty three average, ten
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: twenty four ohps against him in thirty six at bats,
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: and a four to three strike out walk ratio.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: And this is Seattle's current.
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: Lineup, so this is excluding a Rosarna and I think
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: JP Crawford is out as well, so they're not they're
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: not included in here. And Seattle's current lineup still does
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: that amount of damage against him. So given the situation,
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: the home road splits the matchup edge here, there's a
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: lot to like here. About Seattle in my opinion, and
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: that's what we're gonna go with. I have no idea
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: why the money is back in Pittsburgh here. Maybe that's
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: gonna change as the day progresses. I know they're home underdog.
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: I know professional betters like home underdogs generally. Not in
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: this case, man, Not in this situation. Not in this matchup.
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: Sixty eight percent of the tickets around Seattle, sixty three
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on Pittsburgh. That does concern me
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: a little bit. But I like this. I think the
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: price is reasonable on Seattle. Here we get the bullpen
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: advantage too, so full game makes sense here. Take advantage
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: of the bullpen edge that you get here. That's what
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: we're gonna go with Seattle. On the money line, Carrot,
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. You're gonna tail it.
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: I better get these things right, man, all right, Texas
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: and Miami. This is kind of an interesting one, kind
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: of weird. I mean, I do have kind of one
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: of my stronger opinions of the day is in this game.
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: But I don't know. I don't know about the price here,
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: but the pitching matchup looks like it favors Miami here
• 25:29
  Speaker 4: Miami did just lose a four game win streak, though,
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: with a loss yesterday to Toronto or excuse me, to Texas,
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: excuse me. So I worry about that when a team
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: loses the win streak, sometimes they can be hungover in
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: the next game, So that concerns me a little bit,
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: even though it could be a bounce back for Miami
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: after that loss there. Miami did use four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: Texas also used four. We have two good bullpens here.
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: Miami is ranked number two right now. I don't think
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: they're actually the second best bullpen, but they're a good bullpen.
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: Texas ranked seventh. We have two good bullpens year. I
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: think Texas is probably a top five bullpen.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: Miami might be. Neither offense is particularly good.
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: Miami number twenty, Texas number twenty two. I said going
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: into this series, just the matchup of these two teams
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: looks like it's gonna be kind of an under series,
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: although I did not really love the under idea in
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: yesterday's game, but I think it hit anyway. Texas in
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: this game, though, they're going with cal Quantra, which is
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: possibly bad. He's a convert reliever, he's got a three
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: point six to eighty ra this year. But I think
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: he's made all of his appearances out of the bullpen
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: this year. He's kind of a long relief man who
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: used to be a starter. Yeah, he made all starts
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: last year though, and interestingly, most of his season last
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: year was with Miami and then he made a couple
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: of appearances for Atlanta at the very end of the season.
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: Now he's on Texas, so he is in a situation
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: where he's facing his former team for the first time,
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: and you know, I talk about that sometimes that'll motivate
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: a pitcher because he's gonna face Miami for the first
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: time after spending almost the entire season last season with them,
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: didn't face them in his two appearances with Atlanta, so
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: he could be a little bit extra motivated to go
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: out and pitch well against the team that got rid
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: of them. But I kind of lean towards him not
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: pitching well though. He's not really a good pitcher. He's
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: just kind of a journeyman pitcher. This's just kind of
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: a an arm, a long relief guy, a guy that
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: gives you an arm in the rotation when you need one.
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: Three point six to eighty RA one point two to
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: six whip not exactly excellent numbers for a relief pitcher here.
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: He is good on the road, though two point four
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: road ye. RA hasn't been good in his recent outings
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: here though. Numbers against Texas let me say, as I
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: click on the wrong team three to zero eight batting
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: average allowed, eight sixty nine OPS in sixty five at bats.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: So he is a not or No. Sorry he's face Miami.
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: Sorry he's on Texas now, my mistake, Oh my god.
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: Against Miami has a three sixty four average allowed in
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: fifteen to ninety one OPS only an eleven at bats.
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: The only four of their hitters have faced him, but
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: that's still not good. Obviously they've they've done a lot
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: of damage against him in that limited sample. Three to
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: three strikeout walk ratio Stours is really good against him.
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: Triple home run in four at bats and a walk
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: a couple of strikeouts in there. But whatever, Quantrille, I
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: don't think he sets up that well here. I don't
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: think he's a very good pitcher, and I don't think
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: he's gonna go deep into this game.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: I think this is more of a bullpen game for Texas.
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: Here, although Texas does have a good bullpen, but it
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: doesn't look good. Sandie O Contra is pitching from Miami.
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: He's at least an actual starter, even though he's you know,
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: on the wrong side of some injuries in his career
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: and his stuff is definitely diminished. But he's got okay
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: numbers here four point one eighty RA, a one point
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: two four WHIP. He's good at home three point four
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: to two home ERA. He's been in good form recently.
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: He's got a twenty five to three strikeout walk ratio
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: this month. Miami's won all four of his starts. He's
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: picked up a win in all of them, and he
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: has twenty eight innings twenty five hits all out over
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: that span two point eight to nine ERA over that span.
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: Three of those games on the road as well, against
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: some pretty capable offenses in there too, So he is
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: actually in good form right now. He is pitching well here.
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: His overall number is still not that good, though his
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: hit rates a little highs walk rate is good, his
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: walk rate is low. Strike out rate is way low, though,
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: like again, he's just not what he once was. Numbers
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: against Texas are good one eighty seven average allowed six
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: forty three oh ps, seventy five at bats, nineteen to
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: seven strike out walk ratio is not great, but the
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: rest of these numbers are good, and five of those
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: walks are from Nemo, who maybe he pitches around him
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: a little bit.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: But Nimo also has the most at bats against him
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: and really has not hit him well.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: So do with that info what you want.
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: But al Condra is in the better form, has the
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: better matchup numbers, and looks poised to go deeper into
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: this game.
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: So I like Miami in this game.
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: You know, maybe I should add that to my card
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: Miami on the full game. Probably you're looking at about
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: minus one fifty here. It's a little bit pricey.
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: You could make your own minus one run line. I
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: haven't done that in a while. It's a low total,
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: well not really a low total, but eight and a
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: half juice to the under is not exactly high.
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: Money is also backing the under here.
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: You know, I don't know about the under in this game, really,
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: but I worry about laying a run line when it's
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: a lower total and with Miami not really being that
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: good of an offense.
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: But you got to think they should do some damage
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: against Texas. Here.
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: Let me take a look here. I mean, I'm kind
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: of tempted by this one. I liked Detroit first five too,
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: but I don't know. This one seems a little better
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: to me. The number looks okay like Action Networks money numbers.
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: One book has it at better than minus one fifty. Here,
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: I see minus one fifty minus one fifty five.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: I see one book.
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: At minus one forty five here, Man, that is tempting.
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: I know Texas does hit a little bit a little
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: bit better on the road, but this is a more
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: picture friendly environment here.
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: Whoo.
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: I mean, I guess, I don't know. I guess I'll
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: stay off it just because I don't know. Quandrille, I guess,
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: could come out there and be motivated, and Texas's bullpen
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: could be fine. But I like Miami in that game, man,
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: and the money does agree with it. Seventy nine percent
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: of the tickets ninety one percent of the cash on Miami.
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: I would find like a decent money line on it,
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: or making a minus one run line there and play
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: Miami full game. I think is okay, because you're gonna
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: have Texas bullpen likely in the game earlier, so that
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: kind of takes their bullpen advantage a little bit away.
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: They don't really have that much of a bullpen edge anyway,
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: because Miami's bullpen is good. So I think that's what
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: makes the most sense. Argentina is undercash. Yeah, I mean
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: I thought that. I thought Austria was gonna cover the
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: plus one and a half. That was a bullshit non cover.
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: Argentina scored with like a one minute left in stoppage time.
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: Such bullshit.
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: I think it was messy with a goal there right
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: at the end, it was gonna be a one nothing final,
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: so that's some bullshit. I would not play the Congo.
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: There is no way that I would play the Congo
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: in that spot. I'm gonna talk about that, but yeah,
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: I completely disagree with that.
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: No way you like the under in that game.
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: I could see it because both teams generally are better
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: pitching teams and not great hitting teams. But I I
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: would not want to play an under in a cal
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: Quantrille game. All right, Philadelphia and Washington. Washington won the
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: game four to one yesterday, so Washington, I think they
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: got another good outing out of Foster Grippmin yesterday. I
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: think Philadelphia used some spot starter or something. Yes, I
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: don't know who they used, because it seemed like it
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: was gonna be a Lozardo's term, but they pushed Lozardo
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: back to today, so I don't know. Philadelphia used three
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Washington used only two
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: and very light usage. But Washington's bullpen is not good.
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: They're number twenty three, Philadelphia is number twelve. Philadelphia does
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: have the better bullpen here. Washington has the better offense.
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: They're tied him forth with Pittsburgh.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: Philly is number twenty five.
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: Not good so, and they're not that good on the
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: road either, But Philly does have the better starting pitcher here,
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: although they're favored quite heavily here. Jesus Lozardo's pitching for Philly.
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: He's not exactly what his numbers.
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: Make him look like.
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: Point two era one point three to one whip. I
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: do put more weight into the whip though, and yeah,
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: his whip isn't really that good, so he does have
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: some issues here. But as I've been pointing out this year,
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: he got a bit unlucky early in the season, where
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: basically everybody that was reaching base was coming home against him.
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: He is way better on the road for whatever reason,
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: one point five to five road era, so he's been
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: really good on the road and some extreme home road
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: splits and he's on the road here, so that's a
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: good sign for him. He's pitched better again recently.
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: Walk number is.
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: Still kind of high, but Philadelphia is one of his
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: last five starts here and he's been pretty good in
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: most of them. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: and all but one of them, and that goes all
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: the way back into the middle of May as well.
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: He's got a high strikeout rate. His hit rate is
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: right around one per inning now, which is tolerable, and
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: his walk rate is not really even that high, so
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: his overall numbers really aren't that bad. And he's not
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: really an extreme fly ball pitcher either, for what that's worth.
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: He's got okay numbers against Washington two sixty two average,
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: seven eighteen ops allowed, sixty one at bat sixteen to
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: four strike out walk ratio, so his numbers are decent.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: They're on the better side.
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: They're close to average though against Washington, but a little
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: bit better than that. Plus he is better on the road,
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: so I think Luzardo might be backable here, but again
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: the price is a little bit bait. Like the price
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: is a little bit big here. He's going up against
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: Zach Lttel, who is pretty clearly the worst of these
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: two pitchers here. Five point four five ERA, one point
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: three eight whip. He's in the worst of his home
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: road splits six point three to one home y RA,
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: so he is definitely fatable at home. He wasn't really
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: good in his last two outings. He was really bad
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: against Seattle, and then he was a little bit better
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: against Kansas City, but not really got a six' four
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio this. Month really low strikeout rate
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: there in eleven and two thirds. Innings not a lot
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: to like. Here he's got kind of a high hit rate.
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: Here he's a lot.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: A lot of home.
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: Runs he might be the only pitcher's a lot of
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: twenty zero runs on the season so, far and it's
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: not even.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: In that many, innings so that is not.
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: Good his walk rate is, okay and his strikeout rate
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: is really. Low he pitches to contact and he's been
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: giving up a lot of. Contact not good as numbers
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: Against philadelphia are very similar To lozardo's Against, washington though
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: we're looking at like mediocre numbers here to sixty eight,
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: average seven to fourteen ops, allowed four to five strikeout
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: WALK rationo not, good especially for a guy that doesn't
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: really walk. People but he doesn't really get a lot
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: of strikeouts. Either that's in forty one career at. BATS
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: i like filling in the, game but the money is fading,
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: them AND i think it's because the price is just
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: really extreme on. Them minus one sixty eight here basically
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: is the. PRICE i don't really know if the price
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: is justifiable, there though it does seem like a bounce
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: back spot For.
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: PHILLY i think they do have a pretty big starting pitching.
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: Edge plus they have the better bullpen, here and they're
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: clearly the better. Team but they are public eighty five
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets eighty three percent of the. CASH i
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: still think if you're gonna play the, GAME i think
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: the WAY i would play it is to make like
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: a minus one run line With, philadelphia though they're on the,
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: road so you do get all nine innings from their.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: Offense at least if you do do, that.
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: You, KNOW i, mean if you worry About, luzardo even
• 37:26
  Speaker 4: though he is better on the, road you, COULD i,
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: guess go with The philadelphia team total.
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: Over but their offense is not as good on the.
• 37:33
  Speaker 4: Road, However washington gives up a ton of runs at
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: home And lattel is a disaster at, home So philadelphia
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: may be able to get some runs in this. Game in,
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: fact they probably. Should and the money looks like it's
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: kind of indicating towards the over in that game total
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: at eight and a, Half.
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: And you, know if that's the case and you like.
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: The over and you Think philly's gonna, win it does
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: kind of make sense to Look philly over their team.
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: Total BUT i don't, know, man if you're gonna look
• 37:59
  Speaker 4: towards PHIL i think you do want to kind of
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: include their pitching advantage that they have there, too, Though
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: SO i Think philly run line makes some sense in that.
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: GAME i, like make your own minus One cubs that
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: The mets the game WHERE i wanted to play The
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: cubs yesterday and the game got, postponed so The mets
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: didn't play. Yesterday but that helps The mets a, LITTLE i,
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: guess because they did have a short turnaround time because
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: they played On sunday night in a divisional series Against.
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: Philly now they do have a day, off but they're
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: still returning home from a road, trip.
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: So it's still kind of a.
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: Negative having that day off could, help you, know could
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: make them settle at home and maybe get a little
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: bit extra. Distracted ALTHOUGH i think if you're The mets
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: and you're in last place here and you're facing a
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: team like The, cubs you're probably not gonna totally overlook
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: The cubs. Here, STILL i don't love the spot though
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: for The mets. Here as far as The cubs are,
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: concerned The cubs are not good on the road, though
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: they're below five hundred on the, road and The, mets
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: believe it or, not are exactly five hundred at.
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: Home ubs have extra rest here though The cubs.
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: Have not played Since saturday because they had two games
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: in a row ragined, out so The cubs do have
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: an extra rest advantage. Here both bullpens are, good though
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: both bullpens are now rested After, yesterday so The mets
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: have the number three bullpen and THEIR era is pretty.
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: Good cubs are number, ten so The mets do have
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: a slightly better, bullpen but not by a.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: Lot The cubs have the way better.
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: Offense The cubs are number six again in, Offense mets
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: are number twenty nine out of, thirty so The cubs
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: do have the advantage. There but The cubs are not
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: gonna go with Em naga. HERE i don't know what
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: they're doing. Here, Man evenaga they're gonna push him. BACK
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: i guess The mets are still going With, senga who you,
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: KNOW i am not a fan, of AND i was
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: ready to fade him Against, emanaga BUT i do not
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: want to play The cubs With Edward cabrera on the.
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: Mound cabrera has not had a good, season even THOUGH
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: i think he's a pretty good, pitcher LIKE i liked
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: him when he was On miami and. Stuff but he
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: is not having a good season with The cubs. Here
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: five point two one one point four whip not.
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: Good he is better.
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: On the road four point four to Four Roadie, ray
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: so at least he's in the better of his. Splits
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: but he's not in good form. HERE i think he
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: was maybe injured for a little bit. Here it doesn't
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: look like he missed any starts, here THOUGH i don't.
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: Know he's failed to make it five innings in four
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: of his last five, STARTS i think is what this
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: is that is not. Good that's not a good. Sign
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: so yet generally he's not doing too well. Here he's
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: giving up a lot of home, runs which is not that.
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: Good his overall, numbers his hit rates a little bit,
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: high strikeout rate is a little, low and his walk
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: rate is a little bit too high. Too so he's
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: got some issues right. Now and believe it or, not
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: The mets crush this guy three twenty five batting average
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: nine six, ops nine to, seven strikeout walk ration of
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: forty at.
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: Bats so this is.
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: Uh The mets draw a pretty good pitching matchup here
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: as far as the fact that they've been able to
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: hit this. Guy so that's not good for The cubs.
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: Here The mets going WITH codei. Senga WHO i think he's.
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: Bad he's got a NINETY ra at one point eight
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: to eight. WHIP i, mean those are miserable. Numbers he's
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: not that, bad but he's pretty. Bad he's got an
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: EIGHTEEN era at home this. YEAR i know it's kind
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: of a small sample size because he got injured in Late,
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: april but he was not pitching well after his first
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: two starts were pretty good, actually and he went at
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: least five to two thirds innings in both of, them
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: but those were both on the road and Against San
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: francisco And Saint, louis so those were pitcher friendly.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: Ballparks since, then he's been.
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: Atrocious and he did pitch against The cobs on the
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: road in Mid april and he was terrible in that.
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: Start so, YEAH i don't Trust. Senga he came. Back
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: his one start coming back from injury was not. Good
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: he had four walks and four innings Against. Cincinnati that's not.
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: Good his walk rate is really high here this. Season
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: strike got rad is, good so he is ratch up
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: or he's racking up.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: STRIKEOUTS i should say he's got.
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: TWO i have a hit ray too, though so he's
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: just putting a ton of guys on base in every way.
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: Possible cubs don't have great numbers against him, though even
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: though they did just mash him In april to forty
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: four batting average seven to forty four, ohps but they
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: do have a fourteen to seven strike out walk, ratio
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: so he's walked a ton of them in forty one at.
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: Bats AND i did want to fade him yesterday because
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: he was going up Against Eamon, naga AND i liked
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: the spot better to fade The mets on the quick
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: turnaround time plus the return. HOME i still don't like
• 42:36
  Speaker 4: the spot for The mets, here BUT i think the
• 42:38
  Speaker 4: way to play this game is probably the. Over, Yes Big,
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: brick what's? UP i agree with the over in that. One, Yes,
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: mets their whole season has been a slump pretty, much
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: but their offense might break out in this game because
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: the matchup that they have. Here but, YES i agree
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: with the, over LIKE i would still be looking to Fade.
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: Senga looks like you could Fade cabrera here. Too the
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: totals fairly low at, eight but the money looks like
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: it is coming in on the over seventy six percent
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: of the tickets and ninety percent of the cash on the,
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: OVER i would agree with.
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: THAT i would play over in that, One, tanner what's? Up?
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: MAN i thanks ranging out getting some Some twitter action,
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: here all? Right i'm always Getting twitter action in THE,
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: dms especially all, Right milwaukee And. Cincinnati this was kind
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: of surprisingly low scoring, YESTERDAY i would, say Although woodroff
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: was pitching For milwaukee and him doing well didn't surprise.
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: Me singer pitching well kind of surprised, me although he
• 43:38
  Speaker 4: is better at. Home but we had a two to
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: One milwaukee win, yesterday AND i Thought milwaukee would, win
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: BUT i thought it would be a little bit easier than.
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: That milwaukee used four relief pitchers in that. Game cincinnati
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: used four as. Well cincinnati is not a good bullpen
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: though they are ranked twenty ninth out of thirty IN.
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: Whip they're one of the worst rays. Too they're like
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: a bottom five. Bullpen they're not.
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: Good The brewers are better than. That The brewers are number,
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: eleven pretty decent bullpen era from, them so The brewers
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: to have a bullpen advantage. Here milwaukee is also number
• 44:11
  Speaker 4: eleven in, offense tied with The giants and The. Cardinals
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: i'm still not buying The giants being up. THERE i
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: think it's just they fluked their way up. There but
• 44:20
  Speaker 4: That giant offense is still not, good and we found
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: that out firsthand the other day on the. Show my
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: baseball has been slumping a little bit on the Show
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: man one and one with the two baseball plays, yesterday
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: but generally it's been a really good baseball season on the,
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: show though so far it's still.
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: Early Man baseball is such a long. Season it's, ridiculous and.
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: A lot of, Times i'm gonna warn you a lot
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: of TIMES i start slumping in Like, august especially in,
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: BASEBALL i don't, know you just hit those like dog,
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: days and it's, weird like something just. HAPPENS i don't,
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: Know Like i'm usually better in Like May. June i'm
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: just gonna warn, you what are we talking? ABOUT i
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: don't even know What i'm talking. About cincinnati's, Offense, yeah
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: where the hell of day?
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: At their number twenty? Three so they have not been that.
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: GOOD i Think elie de La cruz has been hurt,
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: too so he's their best.
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: Hitter so that doesn't Help cincinnati.
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: Here this pitching matchup here does look like it's gonna
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: be pretty offensive offense, conducive Though Brandon sprode is pitching
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: for The. Brewers not good numbers here five point nine FOUR,
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: era one point four to six. Whip he's a little
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: bit better on the road five point one to eight.
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: Road ray was not good in his last start Against,
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: cleveland which is kind of damning Because cleveland's offense is
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: not good and they have a bunch of.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: Injuries sprode was.
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: Actually pretty good in his two starts prior to, that
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: although strikeout rate wasn't very.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: Good BUT i don't, Know.
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: Manan he's a guy that has decent, talent but he's
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: just he just hasn't pitched well. Yet at least he
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: does have a good strikeout, rate though fairly. Good it's
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: almost nine per, nine which does kind of tell you
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: that he does have the ability to fool major league.
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: Hitters his hit rate is not that, high but his
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: walks are the huge issue. Here he walks a ton of,
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: guys so he has to figure that, out get his command.
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: Fixed his numbers against The reds are, good but it's
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: only an eight at. Bats they only have four hitters
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: have faced, him no extra base. Hits they're only one
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: ar eight. Offense that is a one to twenty five,
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: average four to twenty FIVE, ops three to two strike
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: at walk.
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: Ratio so that.
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: Is, uh you, KNOW i mean he has some unfamiliarity.
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: There so when pictures are unfamiliar to the opposing, hitters
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: a lot of times the picture does.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: Have a little bit of an advantage.
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: There, yeah that's interesting because some of these cities are,
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: postponing or they're canceling or just not having the baseball
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: games happen at the same time of The World cup is.
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: Happening But toronto is a massive. CITY i, mean it
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: is the biggest city In canada population, wise but it's
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: also a, big sprawling. City SO i guess my assumption
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: is that wherever The World cup is being played is
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: not that close to the baseball, stadium so they can
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: get away with.
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: It BUT i have no idea because.
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: We've seen some cities have not had baseball played on
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: the same day as A World cup. Match nicolodolo is
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: pitching For cincinnati here he has not been good six
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: point one TWO, era one point five to NINE. WHIP
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: i think he's better than, that. THOUGH i, mean his
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: numbers throughout his career have, been you, know. Not his
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: numbers throughout his career have not been, great but they're
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: definitely a lot better than, This SO i think that
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: he's probably gonna be better than this at some. Point
• 47:35
  Speaker 4: but he's not pitching well right. Now he's got a
• 47:38
  Speaker 4: seven point twenty seven HOMEY, ra which is very. Bad
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: he was really bad in his last home start against The,
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: mets which is pretty. Damning The reds have lost six
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: of his eight starts this. Season he started the season
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: late because he had an. Injury he had some blister
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: ISSUES i think at the end of last, year and
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: maybe he had some other injury. TOO i have no,
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: idea but his last start against The, METS i, mean
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: that is not, good considering The mets offense is not.
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: Good he's not a good form right. Now he's got
• 48:06
  Speaker 4: a pretty low strikeout rate, here high hit, rate his
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: walk rate is not. Excellent there's not a lot to
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: like here from his, numbers except he actually is pretty
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: good Against milwaukee one batting average allowed five to sixty
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: three ops and fifty two at bats ten to three
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: strike at WALK, raceo so he does actually match up
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: well Against. MILWAUKEE i don't THINK i want to Trust lodolo.
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: THOUGH i don't know IF i want to Trust sprout either.
• 48:32
  Speaker 4: THOUGH i, mean this game kind of reads as an
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: over game to, me even though both pitchers their matchup
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: stats look like they could actually pitch well.
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: HERE i don't, know. MAN i, mean the.
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: Odds makers are giving you a high total, here and
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: they're doing that for a. Reason it's nine and a.
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: HALF dk has a ten out, there.
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: And you, KNOW i always say when it's.
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: High it's high for a, reason so the oddsmakers are
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: expecting some offense. Here sixty three percent of tickets ninety
• 49:00
  Speaker 4: one percent of the cash on the, over so the
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: money is backing the. Over it makes some sense to
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: me because both pitchers definitely have had their struggles. Here
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: but based on the, matchups the specific, MATCHUPS i don't love. It,
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: uh seventy one percent of the tickets are On milwaukee
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: and fifty six percent of the cash On. Cincinnati the
• 49:19
  Speaker 4: money is back In. CINCINNATI i DON'T i don't know
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: IF i would want to do. That milwaukee has some edges,
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: Here they are favored slightly, here and for good, reason
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: they are the better. Team but you, know Obviously milwaukee
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: does not have A they don't have a gigantic starting pitching.
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: Edge here in this, One so there is.
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: That, well, yeah the ballpark is offensive, Conducive, yes that is.
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: True what's the weather, LIKE i don't, know you mean
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: it's hot probably or wind is blowing, Out but, YEAH i,
• 49:50
  Speaker 4: mean you're, right but that's probably not the only reason
• 49:53
  Speaker 4: why the total is that, high, Though BUT i, mean,
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: yes that's factored, in but it still is the case
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: that the total is just high for reason, Though, yes,
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: correct it is one of the better hitting.
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: Ballparks yes.
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: So, YEAH i MEAN i still think an over may
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: be the better way to play that, game BUT i
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: don't really want to do. It this next game is
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: gonna be my other actual play. Here hopefully we can
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: get this. ONE i know we're paying a little bit
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: of juice for, this BUT i found a couple.
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: Of books that have this.
• 50:28
  Speaker 4: Number we're gonna go first five under In cleveland and
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: The White sox under. FOUR i KNOW i had to
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: pay some juice for this minus one thirty. FIVE i
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: prefer that to playing under three and a half, though
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: AND i don't want to go full game on this
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: BECAUSE i do not trust The White sox, bullpen so
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: that has to be. Concerned BUT i like the starting
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: pitching matchup, here SO i wanted to attack this, game
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: AND i wanted to find a way to play the.
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: Under this is WHAT i arrived.
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: AT i would still agree with the under three and
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: a half in the first, five which you can probably
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: find it like even so you definitely get a better
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: price on it for obvious. Reasons but when you're talking
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: about first five, unders every half run is worth a decent.
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: Amount SO i, decided let's lay some juice on this
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: and get the extra half run. Here better not get
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: fucked on, this but hopefully we can get this. Done
• 51:18
  Speaker 4: as far as the, Bullpens cleveland used three relief pitchers.
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: YESTERDAY i don't even want to talk about it because
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: they blew the game in the ninth.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: Inning although we were about to lose that game. ANYWAY
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: i gave Out cleveland as a play on the show.
• 51:30
  Speaker 4: Yesterday they were down three to, nothing but LIKE i,
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: said they took the lead in.
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: The ninth, inning so.
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: You, know once that had, happened they were pretty certain
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: to win that, game and they blew it in the
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: bottom of the. Ninth This White sox bullpen is the
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: reason WHY i do not want to play the full game,
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: here though you KNOW i went With cleveland yesterday full.
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: Game part of the reason was they have the better.
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: Bullpen The White sox are also the less rested bullpen.
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: Here these four relief pitchers, Yesterday, cleveland this bullpen is,
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: decent even though they blew it in the ninth inning.
• 52:02
  Speaker 4: Yesterday THEY i, believe did not use their actual closer,
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: yesterday THOUGH i don't even know who they're using as
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: a closer now, though SO i could be. Wrong cleveland
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: is number fourteen in the bullpen Here White sox are number.
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: Twenty cleveland does have the better bullpen and Both Whip Andy,
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: ray But i'm focusing on the starting pitching, here but
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: also the. OFFENSE i think you could fade the offense
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: this year early in the. Game cleveland has not been
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: a good. Offense they're number twenty, eight and they still
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: are dealing with a bunch of, injuries including their best,
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: Hitter Jose, ramirez who is out with a broken.
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: Hand so that's gonna help the case for the under.
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: Here The White, SOX i know they've been a good
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: offense this, year and they're good at. Home they're number
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: ten in, offense but they've been a little bit worse offensively,
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: recently even THOUGH i know they broke out a little bit.
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: Yesterday BUT i think The White sox are kind of
• 52:53
  Speaker 4: regressing a little bit, here and they're gonna have to
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: go Against Parker. Messix, MESSICK i think he has the
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: ability to.
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: Slow down their.
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: Offense he's been really good two point seventy ra one
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: point One.
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: WHIP i think He's cleveland's best, starter even though he
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: is really.
• 53:07
  Speaker 4: Young he's been good on the road two point four
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: to eight roady Ra he's been good for the most part.
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: RECENTLY i, mean he had a good start last time
• 53:15
  Speaker 4: out Against milwaukee on the, road had a lot of
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: strikeouts in that. One wasn't great in the previous start
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: against The, yankees but that was against The.
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: YANKEES i mean a lot of guys struggle against The.
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: Yankees messick has generally been really good Though he's allowed
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: more than three or runs only twice this, season and
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: he hasn't allowed more.
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: Than four at.
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: All he's got a high strikeout, rate low hit. Rate
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: his walk rate is decent as. Well numbers good across
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: the board, here and The White socks are very unfamiliar with.
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: Him they're only one for eight off.
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: Him Me drof has the only hitoff and which is
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: a single two, strikeouts no.
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: Walks that's a.
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: One twenty five average obviously two fifty. Ops SO i
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: Think messek has an extra edge here because The White
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: sox hitters that have faced him haven't done well and
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: most of their lineup hasn't seen, him so that's an extra.
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: Advantage AS i always, say for.
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: These young pitchers that do have good, stuff they have
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: an extra advantage when the offense hasn't faced them, before
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: because the offense tends to have to try to figure them,
• 54:14
  Speaker 4: out and they don't do well the first couple. Times
• 54:16
  Speaker 4: Sean burke is pitching for The White, sox my man From,
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: sutton Mass he's having a good, season surprisingly good three
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: point eight to NINE, era one point two to TWO,
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: whip SO i think he is backable. HERE i know
• 54:29
  Speaker 4: he's not as good at home four point four to
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: four HOME, era so we're not in the better of
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: his home road splits, here but he's a lot of
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: very low opponent batting average at home, though SO i
• 54:39
  Speaker 4: think HIS ra at home might be a little bit
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: misleading because the rest of his numbers look okay at,
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: home like pretty similar to his road, numbers So i'm
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: not sure that we can.
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: Really trust THE era splits.
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: There burke was awesome and his last time out against
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: The yankees really a good start from him against The
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: yankees last time, out and maybe he got extra pump
• 54:59
  Speaker 4: for it because he's From, massachusetts so he probably hates The,
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: yankees my, man and you, know it was a big
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: deal to face The, yankees so you don't have.
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: To worry maybe about a let down. Here but he
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: didn't throw that many.
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: Pitches he only threw eighty eight pitches in that one
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: in seven to the third, innings.
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: So he was very efficient with his.
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: Pitches they didn't really overextend him in the, game AND
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: i think he could be coming back in a form
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: after he struggled a bit in the previous two starts
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: Against philly and The. Dodgers he's been good for most
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: of the, seasons SO i consider this to kind of
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: be a by sign that he's kind of coming back
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: into forum here after he really struggled with his command
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: in the previous two. Outings he only walked one guy
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: against The yankees and the seven and the third. Innings
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: his overall numbers are still. Good he's right at nine
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: strikeouts per, nine low hit, rate pretty low walk rate,
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: Too so there's a lot to kind of like. Here
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: and he's facing A cleveland offense that's injury. Plagued they're
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: not good, anyway and they have a one to ninety
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: four batting average against him in five ninety six ops
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: in thirty one at. Bats the walk number is a
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: little bit of an issue nine to five strike out walk,
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: ratio but everything else looks pretty good, Here SO i
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: think this is the way to go under first five
• 56:07
  Speaker 4: innings In cleveland and The White. Sox the money looks
• 56:11
  Speaker 4: like it's backing the.
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: Over for the full.
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: Game but it's a low, total, dude really low at
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: seven basically across the. Board so the oddsmakers are telling
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: you they think this is gonna be a low scoring.
• 56:21
  Speaker 4: Game you, know you could go under in the full,
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: game BUT i really worry about The White sox, bullpen
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: SO i don't want to do it that. WAY i
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: want to focus just on the starting, pitching WHERE i
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: think we have the best chance to get this. Thing
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: seventy nine percent of the tickets and ninety one percent
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the. OVER i don't agree with
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: where that money, is but the over might be a
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: public play here, anyway so, whatever.
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: And then the money is back In. Cleveland.
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: Here by the, way they're right around a pick em price,
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: here sixty seven percent of the, tickets eighty six percent
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: of the cash On. Cleveland it's interesting because the public
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: is GONNA i THINK i have more of a tendency
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: to want The White sox because they have the better,
• 56:58
  Speaker 4: offense and that's what the public, likes.
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: You, know and they don't trust a team that can't
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: score Like.
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: Cleveland But messick is the better of the two pitchers,
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: here so you, KNOW i, MEAN i guess do with
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: that info what you.
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: Want but the money is somewhat back In cleveland.
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: There BUT i like the under in the first five
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: in that, One Trey what's up Man Sean. BURKE i
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: like him because he's from Mass he wasn't really that
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: good last, season but this season has kind of been
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a breakout for, him ALTHOUGH i
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: worry that all these pitchers are gonna start regressing though
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: for The White, sox like part of the reason they've
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: been good here is That burke has been. Good Davis
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: martin has been really really, good except that he got
• 57:37
  Speaker 4: absolutely drilled by The. Yankees martin could be in line
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: for some regression Though burke may not be quite.
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: As good as maybe he. Looks BUT i like this
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: for the.
• 57:48
  Speaker 4: UNDER i Think burke draws a good matchup in that one,
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: though so and you, know facing The yankees and then
• 57:53
  Speaker 4: stepping way down in class to Face cleveland should be you,
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: know that should be a little bit of a, reprieve although,
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: sometimes you, KNOW i do talk about the let, down
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: like maybe the pitcher will be in a letdown spot
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: after having a huge, game being, like, oh, well IF
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: i can beat The, yankees of COURSE i can Beat.
• 58:09
  Speaker 4: Cleveland you know that type of. Thing But cleveland is
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: a much weaker offense than The.
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: Yankees needless to, Say dodgers And, minnesota this game is ON.
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: TBS i don't know if people really want to watch this,
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: game but it's because it's The. Dodgers they get THE
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: tv slot. Here dodgers won the game two to one.
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: YESTERDAY i expected that game to be significantly higher scoring than.
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: THAT i Thought minnesota might be worth a look in
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: that game yesterday early BECAUSE i actually Like Zebbi, matthews
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: AND i forget who The dodgers had.
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: Pitched it Was, LOWER i THINK i.
• 58:42
  Speaker 4: Do i'm not a fan Of, lower But lower looks
• 58:45
  Speaker 4: like he's pitching better for The dodgers man so change
• 58:48
  Speaker 4: of scene or he seems to have helped. Him The
• 58:51
  Speaker 4: dodgers used three relief pitchers, Yesterday minnesota used. Three minnesota
• 58:56
  Speaker 4: has a bad, bullpen they're dead, last and Both era
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: And Whip this is a really bad.
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: Bullpen The dodgers.
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: Are ranked, fifth although THE era suggests they're a little
• 59:06
  Speaker 4: bit worse than, that but they're obviously the better bullpen.
• 59:08
  Speaker 4: Here dodgers are still the number one team in, offense
• 59:12
  Speaker 4: and they're also a really good offense on the road as.
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: WELL i think they might be the best road.
• 59:17
  Speaker 4: Offense minnesota has been good offensively, recently and they're back
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: up to ninth on, offense which was a part of
• 59:24
  Speaker 4: the reason WHY i kind of like the over, yesterday
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: but the game was way low. Scoring this, GAME i
• 59:30
  Speaker 4: would be a little bit less tempted to look over.
• 59:32
  Speaker 4: Here The dodgers are going With Justin, robleski who is
• 59:35
  Speaker 4: continuing to kind of prove the advanced analytics guys, wrong
• 59:41
  Speaker 4: because the advanced analytics guys don't like this guy because
• 59:44
  Speaker 4: it doesn't strike guys, out but he's still pitching effectively
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: and not putting guys on. Base he's got a two
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: point seven to TWO era one point zero one, whip
• 59:53
  Speaker 4: and yes he pitches to contact and doesn't strike guys,
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: out but sometimes it works on.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: What you're actually.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 4: Doing he's a little bit worse on the road two
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: point nine to FIVE yar, right but that's obviously still.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 4: Good he was really good in his last. Start he
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 4: shut Out Tampa bay for six. Innings two starts before,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: that he threw a, shutout gave up one ear and
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: run the start before. That those were Against arizona And
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 4: philadelphia struggled in the game in between those Against. Pittsburgh
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 4: BUT i just talked about. It pittsburgh does hit well at,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 4: home although we're fading them. Today But i'll Give robleski
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a pass for that. One his overall,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 4: NUMBERS i, mean he's got a low hit, rate a
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 4: low walk, rate strake got, rate LIKE i, said is
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: not that, high but he's doing pretty. Well ground ball,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 4: PITCHER i mean you could see there his ground ball
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 4: rate is not really that. Good he's allowing more fly
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 4: balls than ground balls there by a decent. Amount so,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 4: YEAH i don't, know But robleski is pitching pretty well.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: Overall though numbers Against, minnesota they haven't really seen. Him
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 4: they have three hitters who have faced, him only hit
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 4: as a single From Josh. Bell they have three, strikeouts no,
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 4: walks one sixty seven average three thirty three. Ops SO
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: i Think roblesk he does have a little bit of
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: an extra advantage there Because minnesota is not familiar with,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 4: him SO i expect that he does pitch well. Here
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 4: he's going up Against Hendry rojas for The, twins who
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 4: is really a. Mystery he's been a relief, pitcher but
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: it seems like they're trying to turn him into a.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: Starter he's really.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 4: Young he's twenty three years, old so he might be
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: like a decent. PROSPECT i don't know much about. Him
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 4: he's got a one point two SIX, era which does
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: look really, good but his whip is not good one
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 4: point four to, seven so he's clearly putting too many
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 4: guys on, base even though he has not a lot
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: a lot of. Runs one point FIVE era at home
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 4: here is also pretty. Good his last two outings he
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 4: allowed no runs across seven. Innings The twins have won
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 4: his last four appearances A i think those are all relief,
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: appearances though let me SAY i know one was a.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: Star to my, mistake he's made one star and all
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: the rest were relief. Appearances hasn't gotten deeper than four
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: innings yet in any one of these. Outings his walk
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 4: number has been the major issue, though like he's not
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 4: allowed that many. Hits, obviously he hasn't allowed many runs
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: strike got raided as, decent but his wildness has been
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 4: an issue and that could come back and bite, you you,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 4: Know but it's been better in his last Two outings's
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 4: only walked two guys over the last seven, innings so
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 4: he is getting better in the walk department. Too so
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 4: Maybe rojas is not a guy that you necessarily want
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: to fade, here.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: But he's not going deep into these.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 4: Games so you know you're gonna Get minnesota's bullpen coming
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: into this, game and they are not trustworthy at.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: All rojas might.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 4: Be he's got no experience against The, dodgers so that
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: should be an advantage to him because the offense is
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 4: gonna have to figure him out on the.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: Fly, SO i, mean this game.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: Kind of looks like it could be a first five
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 4: under WHICH i gave out that as a play In
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: robleski's last, outing but that was against Rat listmiths in
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: which was an easy. Win there were no runs scored
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 4: in the first five innings of that one one run
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 4: scored in the entire. Games that was an easy one
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: THAT i gave on on the. Show Don't i'm not
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 4: gonna put it on my card or. Anything but first
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 4: five under maybe is what makes the most sense in this.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 4: Game although the total is high for the full game at.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 4: Nine so that does worry me a little bit about
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 4: playing an under. Here seventy percent of the, tickets eighty
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 4: eight percent of the cash on the, over but first
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 4: five under you'll probably get about a five on.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: THAT i would guess something like.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 4: That it might, happen BUT i would not trust The
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 4: minnesota bullpen at. All the money seems to be Backing
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 4: Minnesota dodgers ninety three percent of the, tickets seventy four
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: percent of the. Cash they're a high price it minus
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 4: won seventy something here because they're The. Dodgers you, know
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 4: you're usually gonna have to pay a lot to play
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 4: The dodgers because everybody knows they're the best team in. Baseball,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 4: yeah so maybe that's probably why the money is fading.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 4: Them it's just about value in getting a huge underdog price.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 4: Here BUT i don't THINK i would do. That IF
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 4: i was gonna Play minnesota at, ALL i would have
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 4: to keep it to the first, five BUT i DON'T
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 4: i would not want to do that. EITHER i think
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 4: first five under makes the most sense in that, game
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 4: but that's not gonna be one THAT i would want
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 4: to risk putting on my card at. All all, Right
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 4: i'm gonna be right. Back i'll talk about the rest
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 4: of these. GAMES i don't have any other plays to give.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 4: OUT i already gave out both plays and my couple
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 4: of stronger. OPINION i THINK i have one more opinion
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: that's reasonably strong in the very last game on the baseball.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 4: Schedule and Then i'm going to talk about the ONE wnba,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 4: game which is actually kind of a big, game at
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 4: least relative to OTHER wnba.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: Games And i'm gonna talk About World.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 4: Cup AND i already disagree WITH sob on that one
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 4: GAME i already. Mentioned But i'll be right back in a. Second, yep,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 4: INSIDE i want to kill. Myself we were ON ohn
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 4: seven run over the last two days after.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: Tonight it was just complete. Bullshit so that's That's i'm
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: gonna start off this. Show Horrible sunday one and. FIVE
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: i don't even know what to tell you about. THAT
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: i just don't want to do this.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 4: ANYMORE i have never seen anything like. This man with
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 4: the slump. Continuing two straight, losses not a good day at.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 4: All own four that have not had had a good.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 4: Season man with wiokends the slump That i'm, on and
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 4: the slump. Continues i've reached a new. Peak, Actually i'm
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 4: going to burn My bruins hat, MAN i don't know
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 4: what is going on with The.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: Bruins arch? Eight is that what it? IS i don't
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: even know It's march? NINTH i think who even? Knows,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: MAN i don't know what data is. Anymore BUT i
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: don't even know what data is? Anymore, man back with
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: you after the worst day THAT i could possibly, Have
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: back with you AS i always am.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 5: UNTIL i die at least oh and two yesterday and
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 5: yesterday it did not go well for. Me own, five
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 5: first month That i've ever had in my eighteen years doing.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: THIS i don't know what to even tell you about this.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 4: Anymore, slumper, slump, Discontinuous the slump.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: Continues somebody fucking kill, me.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 4: PLEASE i don't even know WHAT i should do at
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 4: this point other than potentially end it. All what's, Up burber?
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 4: Buddies oh, yes this is better off. Dead oh, yeah
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: that's right all? Right next game up Is arizona And Saint.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 4: Louis Uh Saint.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: Louis won the game yesterday three to.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 5: Two.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: Arizona you Know i'm Not i'm still not sold On Saint, louis.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 4: MAN i know the record looks all, right BUT i
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 4: still don't think they're as good as that would.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: SUGGEST.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: U Saint louis did use four relief pitchers. Yesterday arizona
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: probably has a little bit of a bullpen edge. Here
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 4: arizona only used two guys out of the. Bullpen arizona
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 4: is ranked ninth in, bullpen BUT i keep pointing out
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 4: that their eerray is not that, good so they're not
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 4: quite that, good but THEY'RE i think a mediocre.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: Bullpen Saint louis is ranked.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 4: NINETEENTH i Think Saint louis's bullpen is a little bit
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: worse and they're at a rest disadvantage. There Saint louis's
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 4: number eleven in, offense AS i already, mentioned tied With
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 4: milwaukee in the Fraudulent giants, offense.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: They're better Than.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 4: Arizona The arizona's ranked twenty, fifth So arizona's offense has been,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 4: struggling which is kind of. Surprising arizona on the surface
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: looks like they have a starting pitching advantage. Here with
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: e rod pitching At Eduardo, Rodriguez he's been pretty. Good
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 4: two point four to five R, ray one point two
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 4: to THREE. Whip he's another guy who's on the back
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 4: end of some injuries here and is not able to
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 4: do what he once. Did but he is pitching pretty effectively,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: anyway ALTHOUGH i think there might be some regression in
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: store for.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: Him he's not quite as good on the.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 4: Road he's got a three point three to eight roadyr
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: rail though that's still, good and he's pitching in a
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: pitcher Friendly Saint Louis ballpark. Here he was good in
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 4: his last outing Against. Anaheim he's been okay, recently but
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: his walk rate has definitely been high sixteen to ten
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio this, month with eight walks in
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 4: his last two, outings so that is not. Good in
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: twenty two winnings pitch, overall with that sixteen to ten,
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 4: ratio there not been that hittable though in fact his
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: hit rate is low on the. Season his strikeout rate
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 4: is definitely low because he just doesn't have that type
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: of stuff.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: That he used to have.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: Anymore his walk rate is too, high, though so that
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 4: is his main concern is the. Walks so he's got
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 4: to potentially do something about. That this is what really surprised.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 4: Me Though Saint louis has never faced him, before how
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 4: is that even? Possible that Is Saint, Louis, like is
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 4: their lineup that young that none of them have ever
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 4: faced a guy that's been in the league for over
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 4: a decade probably are around a. Decade that makes no
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 4: sense to, me but that is what it. Is Saint
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 4: louis has never faced him, before so that that might
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: give him a little bit of an extra. ADVANTAGE i
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 4: guess even though he's been around for so long that
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 4: guys kind of know what to do against. Him SO
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 4: i don't, know but, maybe you, know you can't really,
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: like actually facing him in a live environment is still
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: a little bit different than, that so you, know maybe
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: he will pitch well, Here Kyle, lay he is pitching
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 4: For Saint.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: Louis you, KNOW i don't think he's very.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 4: Good his numbers will tell you that four point six
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 4: THREE era and one point five to seven whip that
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 4: is not. Good but he's been better at home three
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 4: point eighty nine home y, ra so he is more
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 4: backable at home and in, fact all of the home
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 4: runs he's allowed this season have been on the, road
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 4: so he's been better at, home but still his opponent
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 4: batting average is still bad at. Home, like these numbers
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: don't look, good like they suggest that he hasn't even
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 4: been that good at. Home he's been okay in his
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 4: last couple of. OUTINGS i guess his last outing was,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 4: good but it was Against San, Diego so can you
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 4: really put that much weight into that pitching well at
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 4: home against the worst offense in. Baseball he still didn't
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 4: even pick up a win in that outing because he
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 4: got no run. Support but, OVERALL i don't Trust. Leaky
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 4: he's got a pretty low strikeout, rate his hit rate
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 4: is way too, high and his opponent batting average is
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 4: really high. Too he's allowing like a three hundred average
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: on the season, basically which is really.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: Bad and his walk rate is not that good.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 4: Either Against, arizona they only have five guys who have
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: faced him six at, bats but they do have a
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 4: five hundred average against him in eleven sixty seven.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: Ops so probably would have to lean To arizona. Here
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: you're actually getting.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: Them as an, underdog and it looks like the money
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 4: is coming in that. Way fifty nine percent of the
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 4: tickets ninety four percent of the cash On. Arizona Saint
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: louis is around minus one fifteen or so here minus one.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 4: Twelve you can see The Sharper vegas books here have
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a lean Towards arizona here because
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 4: the favorite price is lower On Saint. Louis BUT i
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 4: point out that you don't want to put that much
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: weight into that necessarily because those books tend to just
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 4: not have as high a line on every favorite, Though
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 4: so you have to kind of weigh that accordingly with,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 4: like is there an actual lean at Those sharper books
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: towards that?
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: Underdog you know WHAT i?
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 4: Mean in this, CASE i think the answer is, yes
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 4: because you could see fifty nine percent of the tickets
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: ninety four percent of the cash On, arizona and the
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 4: way THAT i break it, DOWN i Think arizona does
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 4: have some edges in that, game including in the, Bullpen
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: SO i Think arizona money line makes sense in that.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: Game that's probably WHAT i would lean the WAY i
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: would lean. There Saint louis has a young. Core, yeah
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 4: they have a what's his, Name Jordan? WALKER i mean
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 4: he's he's pretty. Good BUT i was JUST i was
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 4: surprised that they literally have nobody that has seen E rod,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 4: before even though he's been in the league for a
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: long long.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: Time like that definitely surprised.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 4: ME i expected they would have at least like four
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 4: or five guys that had faced him. BEFORE i don't
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 4: even want to talk about The Red sox as A
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 4: Red sox. Fan this is like suicidal territory. Here The Red,
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 4: sox their offense still cannot do. Anything they were winning
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 4: most of the game yesterday.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: Too to not.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 4: THING i Think bennett gave them a good start yesterday
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 4: in course. Field what did The Red sox?
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: Do oh, yeah they bring In.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 4: Chapman in the ninth, inning and he goes, ahead and
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 4: he loads the bases and then lead and then loses the.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 4: Game The Red sox lose the game after leading two
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 4: to nothing in the bottom of the ninth. Inning they
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 4: lose on a walk off because it was a hit
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 4: plus an error By duran who.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: Couldn't field it out in left. FIELD i don't know
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: what the fuck was going, on AND i Like.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 4: DURAN i think The Red sox fans are getting in
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 4: his head and just giving him all this unnecessary shit
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 4: just because he said a. Slur it's such, bullshit, Dude
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 4: like everybody thinks he's evil because he said a word
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: in a in a situation where it made sense to
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 4: say it when he was getting some really ugly stuff.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: Her him from some of the.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 4: Crowd SO i don't, know, man but this is all
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 4: really pissing me. Off it's unbelievable The Red sox lost that.
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 4: Game you cannot lose a fucking series to The, rockies.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: DUDE i know this is on the, road but come, on,
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 4: man this is just such. Bullshit The Red sox have
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen by, far and how did they lose
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 4: the game? Yesterday oh, yeah because the fucking bullpen blew.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 4: It even though The Red sox have the better, Bullpen
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 4: chapman is still an elite closer and he loses the.
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 4: Game isn't that? Awesome The Red sox used three relief pitchers,
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 4: yesterday The rockies used. Two The Red sox still have
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 4: a top bullpen. Here they're number four right now and
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 4: they have one of the best. RAYS i think they're
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 4: number three in bullpen. Era The rockies are Ass they're
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 4: one of the three worst, eras second worst in fact
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: and number twenty seven in, whip so.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: The Red sox clearly have a way better.
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 4: Bullpen they don't have the better, OFFENSE i, know But
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 4: colorado's offense didn't score in eight of the nine innings. Yesterday,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 4: Uh colorado is at, eighth BUT i don't think they're
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: quite that good. Offensive they do have some good young.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: Hitters Red sox also, do but they're twenty seventh in.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: Offense Red.
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 4: Sox we know The Red sox offense, blows but it
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 4: is better on the, road and in, fact The Red
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: sox are better on the. Road The Red sox were
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 4: above five hundred on the road until really. Recently their
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 4: road record is still better Than colorado's home. Record Red
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 4: sox is going With Sonny gray, here and on the,
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 4: surface The Red sox should.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: Have a starting pitching advantage.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 4: Here gray has been pretty, good even though he's getting
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 4: up there in age three point one TWO era one
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 4: point one to EIGHT. WHIP i mean a lot of
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 4: times he does pitch too much to contact, whatever but
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: his numbers are. Good he's a little bit worse on
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 4: the road three point seven to three road, ra but
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 4: that's still not. Bad what you want to look at
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 4: In colorado is you don't want to be an extreme
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 4: fly ball, pitcher which he is. Not he has kind
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 4: of an even ground ball fly ball, rate so that
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 4: plays okay in the.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: Stadium he's got.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 4: A pretty low hit, rate pretty low walk. Rate strike
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 4: out rate is not that, high but that's not really his.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 4: Thing Against, colorado the only they have eighteen at bats against,
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 4: him only have five hitters who have faced, him and
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: they have no extra base hits against. Them one to
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 4: eleven batting average three forty NINE, ops seven to three
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 4: strike out walk. Ratio So gray does have good matchup numbers.
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 4: HERE i don't really know what his career numbers look
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 4: like In colorado because there's no easy way to really
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 4: look at, that And yahoo kind of gives you. That
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 4: but LIKE i think their numbers are are not. Accurate
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 4: uh so when you when you look at other stadium,
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 4: Splits gray did not pitch in this stadium at all last,
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 4: Year SO i don't, know, MAN i haven't really gone
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 4: back to figure that.
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: Out i'm not gonna play this.
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 4: Game The Red sox are gonna have to go up
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 4: against another one of our home boys, Here Sean, sullivan
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 4: and he's Fromanned over mass the home Of Tom.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: Woods that's Where Tom woods is. From Sean.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 4: SULLIVAN i don't know how good he really, is. MAN
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 4: i handicapped him before his other start that he. Made
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 4: he's actually made two appearances this. Year one was good
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 4: and one wasn't. Good you can't see it ON espn
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 4: because they don't have him listed as a.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: Starting, pitcher so you can't.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 4: See oh wait you Can, no you. Can't oh come, on.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 4: Man WHAT i can tell you is The Red sox
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 4: have never faced him. Before he's only made two appearances
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 4: in his. Career he's twenty three years. Old he was
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 4: good in one appearance and bad in the. OTHER i
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 4: have no idea what you're gonna get out Of, sullivan.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 4: Man he's really really. Unpredictable like WHEN i first handicapped,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 4: HIM i looked at his like TRIPLE a numbers and,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 4: stuff and they weren't really that. Impressive ALTHOUGH i guess
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 4: he's considered to be a decent. Prospect but unfortunately for,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 4: him he's In colorado's organization where pictures all go to.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 4: Die speaking of the first PICTURE i talked about on
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 4: the show, Today Peter, lambert who his career looked like
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 4: it was dead when he was With, colorado and now
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 4: all of a sudden he's good now that he's not
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 4: On colorado. Anymore that's how Bad colorado is for. Pitchers you,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 4: know The Red sox should win this. Game they're, favored
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 4: they have the more established pitcher on the mound. Here
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 4: the money is fading, them eighty three percent of, tickets
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 4: eighty two percent of.
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: The cash on. Them some of it is because of the.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 4: Price they're minus one sixty something. Here but the oswigers
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 4: are telling you they should. Win but of course we
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 4: Know colorado gets disrespected in the market all over the.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 4: Place the totals ten and a half and the money
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 4: is back in the. UNDER i, mean last night's game
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 4: went way under for a course field. GAME i mean
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 4: The Red sox they just can't put up offense. Anywhere
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 4: SO i don't, know, man will they be able to
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 4: do it Against. SULLIVAN i have no, idea absolutely no.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 4: Clue sullivan is a. Lefty for what that's, WORTH i
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 4: don't know what to tell you about this, game.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: Man this game is, very very.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 4: Unpredictable so this is one of the furthest games away
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 4: from anything THAT i would want to play on the board. Today,
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 4: YEAH Nl central AND L west. Matchup what are we
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: talking about? There even, SO i mean to have no,
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: HITTERS i, mean you're still in The National.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: League to have no hitters.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 4: That have ever faced him before when he, again he's
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 4: been in the league for a. Decade, DUDE i break
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 4: down this stuff every, Day like that's extremely surprising to. Me, Yeah,
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 4: well when it seemed when it seems like it's too.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: Easy it.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 4: Is SO i know The Red sox and it is
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 4: not an easy. ONE i think they should, win but
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 4: THERE'S i would not put my money on.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 3: It.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 4: Correct colorado did have some offensive. Explosions they were involved
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 4: in that twenty nine run. GAME i think in no
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 4: was that them in The A's Vegas. Stadium, now that
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 4: might have been The, BREWERS i don't, know But colorado
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 4: did play, there so that inflated their numbers. Too but
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 4: we're in course field, here, Man so you, Know colorado
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 4: they can hit a little bit better at, home and
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 4: they're at home right. Now so their offensive, numbers you,
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 4: know aren't like the fact that their offensive numbers are,
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 4: skewed aren't like meaningless when they're in the reason why
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 4: those numbers are, skewed they're in that, Stadium, gerald what's up,
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 4: Man thanks for hanging out all.
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: Right next game Is baltimore And.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 4: Anaheim anaheim lost six to one yesterday in a return
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 4: home spot, there which not a good. Spot the return home, spot,
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 4: man you, know it's a tough spot to. Overcome that's
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 4: why we're Fading pittsburgh. Today by the, way one of
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 4: the reasons Why baltimore hardly used any of their bullpen.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 4: Yesterday their bullpen's not, good but they only use one
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 4: guy out of the, bullpen And anaheim's bullpen is even
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 4: worse and they use three guys out of it, Yesterday
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 4: So baltimore does have a bullpen advantage here the rank,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 4: seventeenth though their Bullpen eray is worse than all these
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 4: teams around, them so they're not a good, bullpen but
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 4: they're better Than, anaheim who is twenty. Sixth not a
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: good bullpen For. Anaheim baltimore, offensively where are they at
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 4: fifteenth IN la Or?
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: Susane anaheim is.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 4: Sixteenth baltimore Has Shane boz. Pitching boz has actually been
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 4: pitching better again. Recently he's got some mediocre numbers here
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 4: four point FOUR, era one point three to Six whip
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 4: is not that. Good he's been a little bit better
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 4: on the road, though three point eight three road ram
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 4: and he's been better. Recently he he had a lot
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 4: of strikeouts in his last outing Against. Seattle he pitched
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 4: well in that, outing and he's been pitching, better LIKE i, said.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: Recently he's allowed.
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 4: Three or fewer earned runs in every start going all
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 4: the way back to Mid, may and he's been mostly
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 4: going fairly deep into those, outings so that's a decent.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 4: Sign his walk rate is gonna little bit down this.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 4: Month like the walks are usually one of his major,
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 4: issues that's been a little bit less of a problem.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 4: Recently he's got a somewhat low hit. Rate his walk
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 4: rate is still too high on the season, though and
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 4: his strikeout rate is not that, high although he is
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 4: capable of striking guys out if you've seen what he's
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 4: done in past, seasons and he seems to be kind
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 4: of moving in that direction again right. Now he has
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 4: good numbers Against anaheim in twenty four at, bats thirteen,
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 4: strikeouts really high strikeout, rate three walks only extra RaSE
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 4: hit is a double From heineman one sixty seven average
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 4: allout overall for sixty eight.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: OPS i Think boz he should pitch well.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 4: Here in my, opinion he's better on the, road he's
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 4: pitching better, recently and he's got good matchup numbers, here
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 4: so this looks like it sets.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: Up decently for.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 4: Him Ryan johnson is pitching For. Anaheim there's not a
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 4: lot to gauge from him so. Far he's a twenty
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 4: three year, old tall right, hander AND i haven't really
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 4: looked at his scouting. REPORTS i don't know exactly what
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 4: he can, do but he hasn't been good so. Far
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 4: twelve point eight three E ra two point three to Three.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 4: Whip we did play the last game that he. PITCHED
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 4: i think WE i gave out a play on the
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 4: a's in that. GAME i think it was a full,
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 4: game or was it first? FIVE i think it was first,
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 4: Five but you remember it Was Gauge jump Against. Soriano
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 4: but you Remember soriana was dealing with an, injury AND
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 4: i told you to only Pick jump must start in that,
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 4: game and not Specify anaheim's. PITCHER i liked THAT i
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 4: did that because sure Enough soriano got pushed back a.
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 4: Day johnson made the, start AND i, said whoever was
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: going to make the start was going to be a,
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 4: downgrade and that is what.
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: Happened so we got the win with The. A's but.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 4: The a's put up all five of those runs in
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 4: the first, Inning i'm pretty, sure and Then johnson settled
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 4: down and was actually really good after. That johnson went
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 4: four shutout innings after. That SO i think he's better
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 4: than his numbers. WAS i, mean no pitcher In Major
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 4: League baseball is as bad as a ten, era, really but,
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 4: YES i think he's better than his numbers would. SUGGEST
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 4: i still don't know that he's, trustworthy, though because if
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 4: you dig into his, numbers there's still not.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: Good he's allowed way too many.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 4: Hits his walk rate is way too high, too and
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: his strike out rate is not that high.
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: Either so there's still not a lot to really love.
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 4: Here but he's had some really really difficult matchups, Here
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 4: like he had to face The cubs and THEN i
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 4: think they sent him down to the. Miners then he
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 4: came back up and they're, like all, right face The
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 4: dodgers twice and then face The, a's including one game
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 4: at the A.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: Stadium. Enjoy so the one good thing.
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 4: For him is that he's actually stepping down In class
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 4: a little bit here to face The, orioles so at
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 4: least there's, that and The orioles have only one guy
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 4: who's faced. Him Ta veris is o for one against,
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 4: him no, strikeouts no, walks so maybe it sets up
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 4: For johnson to do. Okay, here the total in this
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 4: game is, nine which seems a little bit high given
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 4: what this matchup. Is they is back in the over
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 4: a little bit, though fifty three percent of the tickets
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 4: on the, under fifty four percent of the cash on the.
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 4: Over if you're gonna go, over you should go full
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 4: game with, it, though because you want to take advantage
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 4: of these bad.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: Bullpens here the.
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 4: Total nine for the full, GAME i think first five
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 4: under makes some, sense, though wouldn't really want to try
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 4: to go over in the. Game baltimore is the public,
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 4: side eighty three percent of the, tickets eighty three percent
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 4: of the. Cash they're in the minus one fifties on
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 4: the money line, HERE i suppose maybe it's a little
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 4: bit too hefty of a. PRICE i, mean Should baltimore
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 4: really be laying a price like that on the, road,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 4: uh with? ANYBODY i don't, know BUT i did say
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 4: THAT i do like Boz in this matchup, though so you,
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 4: KNOW i DON'T i don't Hate baltimore in the. GAME
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 4: i think they do have some edges. HERE i think
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 4: more likely than not they do win this. Game so
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 4: maybe a slight lean towards like A baltimore run line
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 4: type of situation, There BUT i don't have a good
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 4: gauge on that. Game atlanta At San diego ON Espn. Unlimited,
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 4: uh this is taken forever by the, way way too much.
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 4: BASEBALL i get way too into all these baseball games.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 4: Here San diego won the game one to nothing, yesterday
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 4: despite being in a return home spot plus having to
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 4: travel across time.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: ZONES i don't know how they did, it but they
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 2: won one.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 4: Nothing Michael, KING i, guess was actually good in the,
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 4: game even though his matchup numbers were not, good but
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 4: they were still able to get it. Done San diego
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 4: And atlanta both have good. Bullpens San diego did Use miller, yesterday,
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 4: though SO i don't know if he's gonna be available
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 4: again tonight or. Not both bullpens still good Though San
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 4: diego used two guys, Yesterday atlanta used. Three atlanta is
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 4: the number one, bullpen and both Whip Andy, ray and
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 4: it's there's actually a pretty wide gap between them and
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 4: the rest of, baseball which is pretty. Insane San diego
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 4: has the second best bullpen E. Ray they're number, six
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 4: but they are debatably the second best bullpen, Offensively atlanta
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 4: is the better offense. Here they are number seven And
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 4: San diego is dead last, alreadieth So atlanta.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: Is the better.
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 4: Offense the pitching in this game is not exactly great.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 4: Though atlanta's going with J. R, ritchie who is still really.
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 4: Young he's twenty two years. Old he's been alright given
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 4: how young he. Is four point five FOUR, era one
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 4: point three to seven whip not great, THOUGH i, mean
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 4: pretty mediocre, here a little bit better on the road
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 4: four point twenty nine ROAD. Era but he draws a
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 4: matchup that is, uh probably not too bad here in
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 4: a pitcher friendly park against one of the weakest. Offenses
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 4: he wasn't good last time out Against San, francisco but
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 4: he got a little bit unlucky and that he allowed
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 4: three home runs to, them so maybe he bounces back
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 4: a little bit. Here you look at what he's done.
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 4: Overall though his hit rate is, good his hit rate is,
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 4: low but.
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is. Enormous his walk rate is way too.
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 4: High his strike got rate is a little bit, low
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 4: but the walks have really.
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: Been the issue with.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 4: Him he's got to stop walking, people and if he,
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 4: was if he was able to do, that.
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: He'd be pretty.
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 4: GOOD i think he does not have any track record
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 4: Against San, diego so that should be a little bit
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 4: of an edge to him Because San diego has never
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 4: faced him, before although that hasn't helped him in some
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 4: of his outings this.
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: Year he's going up Against Griffin, canning.
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 4: Who Sucks canning or Actually canning might not. Pitch hang,
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 4: on let me, say, um, yeah San diego is undecided here,
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 4: now But canning might, pitch and if it's Not, canning
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 4: they might put an opener in front of him and
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 4: he might still. Pitch So i'll still point out his
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 4: numbers six point six y foury, ray one point.
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: Five to seven whip not.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 4: Good he is better at home, though four point eighty
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 4: five home he, ra which is expected Because San diego
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 4: is a pitcher friendly. Ballpark canning is still not good,
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 4: though you, know just overall his numbers do not look.
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 4: Good he generally doesn't go that deep into these. Outings
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 4: his hit rate is, okay his walk rate is clearly too.
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: High his strikeout.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 4: Rate is actually not that bad, though but his walks are.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 4: Ridiculous that's not. Good numbers Against atlanta not. Good three
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 4: to zero two batting average eight twenty two, ops twelve
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 4: to two strikeout walk ratio forty three career at. Bats,
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 4: there there's no way they pitch. Them, well what do
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 4: you expect them to? Do it's not it's not like
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 4: they haven't been using. Him they use them on the,
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 4: seventeenth he's he's on track to pitch.
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: Today he'd be the next guy. Up they've used.
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 4: Him they've used him, regularly like for this entire, time
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 4: since the beginning Of.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: May, SO.
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 4: I mean that's just what they're doing because they don't
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 4: have other pitchers right.
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: Now SO i.
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 4: Think it's either gonna Be canning starting this game or
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 4: he's gonna come in after an. Opener Like i'm almost
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 4: positive he's going to pitch in this. GAME i, mean,
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 4: obviously as you can, see he's been pitching regularly regularly
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 4: this entire.
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: Time atlanta or, yeah, NO i already went. Through we
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: Have ritchie.
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 4: Whatever, Yeah atlanta's getting the money, here, uh they're actually
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 4: just very small favor but that kind of worries me
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 4: because it looks way too easy to Play. Atlanta seventy
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 4: eight percent of, tickets ninety four percent of the cash
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 4: on them though they're getting the, money but at like
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 4: minus one fourteen or, whatever it looks way too easy
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 4: to Play. Atlanta the public is gonna be on that.
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 4: Side maybe it's the right, side BUT i can't do, it.
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: Man the money's back in the. Over maybe the over
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: does make.
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 4: Sense sixty seven percent of tickets and ninety percent of
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 4: the cash on the. OVER i don't Love San diego
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 4: over is because their offense. Sucks they're in a very
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 4: pitcher friendly. Ballpark eight and a half is the total,
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 4: here but you got not a very elite pitching matchup,
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 4: Here so maybe an over makes some sense in that.
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: Game, Yeah Michael king was good last. Night, Yes braves.
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 4: Correct their bullpen is really, good SO i don't it
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 4: doesn't matter that much how many guys they use out
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 4: of their bullpen unless it's like. Everybody braves are an elite,
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 4: bullpen all. Right and, then as At San, FRANCISCO i
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 4: did mention THAT i do have an opinion in this
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 4: game mostly Because San francisco is returning home from the
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 4: road all the way across the. Country both of these
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 4: teams are off, yesterday so there's no rest advantage for
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 4: one team over the. Other neither team, played But San
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 4: francisco is having to travel all the way back to
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 4: The west, coast and you, KNOW i don't like that
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 4: a team going from east to. WEST i think it's
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 4: a negative. Spot you have to readjust to The pacific time.
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 4: Zone you have to play a, game it's going to
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 4: be late for your biological. Clock and it's a return home,
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 4: spot which can be a. Distraction AND i know this
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 4: is Their Bay area arrival The, a's but still return
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 4: home spot is a distracted. Spot AND i think maybe
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 4: the public might be, thinking, well they were able to Beat,
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 4: atlanta so of course they're gonna bounce back after getting
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 4: swept By. Miami BUT i don't think it works that
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 4: way on the return home. Spot, man it's a negative,
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 4: spot and that's WHAT i treated it as every single.
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 4: Time it's just a question of WHETHER i want to
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 4: play the other team or. Not The a's have a
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 4: huge travel advantage here because they're only traveling From sacramento To, cisco,
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 4: here so they still have a day, off and they're
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 4: staying in the same area in Northern, california in the
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 4: same time, zone and they're in a bounce back spot
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 4: two because they just lost To anaheim. Twice so The
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 4: a's are clearly in the way better spot. Here SO
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 4: i like The as in this game. Generally the problem
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 4: is DO i really want to Back Aaron savali? Here not, Really,
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 4: NO i. DON'T i faded. HIM i think in his
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 4: last start or some recent. Start bullpen, wise The a's
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 4: bullpen is pretty unbackable as.
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: Well they're number twenty. Four their era is one of.
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 4: The three that are above, five along With colorado And.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 4: Minnesota that is not. Good San francisco's bullpen has not
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 4: been that good either at number twenty, five ALTHOUGH i
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 4: think they're a little bit better than. That So San
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 4: francisco is the better bullpen, here but they're not. Great hitting,
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 4: Wise The a's are number. Three San, francisco AS i,
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 4: mentioned is tied in, eleventh BUT i don't buy.
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: IT i don't Think San. FRANCISCO i don't think their
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: offense is.
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 4: Good they just had some really fluke results. Here The
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 4: as clearly have the better offense. Here but the question,
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 4: is DO i really want to Back? Savale LIKE i,
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 4: SAID i don't THINK i. Do he's got a four
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 4: point nine to ONE, era his whip is, terrible one
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 4: point five to, nine not really a stuff you want
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 4: to put your money. On although he's good on the
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 4: road though three point one Nine Roady, Ray so that
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 4: is something to consider because he has to pitch in
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 4: The a's. Stadium you know how hitting conducive that stadium.
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 4: Is so HIS era is more than three runs better
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 4: on the, road and he's pitching against a weak offense
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 4: here in a pitcher friendly. Stadium so maybe he is
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 4: actually backable. Here, uh because his home road splits are
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 4: just extreme. Here and there's a reason why we know
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 4: it's The a's.
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: Stadium.
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 4: Now savally wasn't good in his last. OUTING i think
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 4: that was the game THAT i did give out a
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 4: play On. Pittsburgh in that, one we Backed ashcraft in that.
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 4: Game we got an easy win on that. Game savali was,
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 4: bad but that was a home. Game he was bad
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 4: in the previous, start but that was a home. Game
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 4: although he was bad in his most recent road start
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 4: as well Against. Anaheim SO i do worry about his current.
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 4: Form obviously it is not. Good his overall numbers are not.
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 4: Good he has a really high hit, rate his walk
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 4: rate is, okay strike out rate is, low extreme fly ball,
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 4: rate which explains why he's so bad in The a's,
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 4: stadium or at least part of the reason why he
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 4: should pitch better here, though against the weak offense in
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 4: a pitcher friendly. Ballpark and he does have good numbers
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 4: Against San francisco one sixty nine, average five oh ONE,
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 4: ops twelve to six strike out walk ratio on five
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 4: of the walks are devers who also hasn't hit him,
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 4: well SO i think he does actually match up well
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 4: in this. Game Robbie ray is pitching For San. FRANCISCO
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 4: i don't Think ray is that, good although he was
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 4: pretty good last. Year he was An All star last,
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 4: year but he really fell apart late in the season last.
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 4: Year numbers this year not great four point h SEVENTY,
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 4: rra one point three to THREE. Whip he is better
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 4: at home, though three point five to five Homey.
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: Ray he's in better. Forms that does worry me a little.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 4: Bit that he did pitch well in his last outing
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 4: on the road Against atlanta And San francisco has actually
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 4: won five starts in a row of his but he
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 4: was involved in like all those games Where San francisco
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 4: had these random offensive explosions At colorado At, wrigley they
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 4: put up double digit runs in three straight appearances For.
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 4: Ray i'm not really buying, it. MAN i know some
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 4: guys think run support is, real, like, oh this team, thinks,
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 4: well we have to hit better because we have to
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 4: hit better behind this. Guy but usually they do that
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 4: for a bad, pitcher WHICH i don't Think ray is
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 4: that bad of a, Pitcher SO i think it's a
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 4: little bit. Unexplainable but that's the reason why they've won
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 4: all those. Games it wasn't Really ray necessarily doing, well
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 4: it was the offense was just going crazy in his.
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 4: Games he does have a low hit rate this, season,
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 4: though but his home run rate is kind of bad
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 4: as walk rates too.
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 2: High strike got rate is.
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 4: Okay he's a flyball, pitcher so he'd probably be worse
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 4: off pitching in The a's stadium.
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: Though ray against The a's though not.
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 4: Good in twenty eight at bats two eighty six, average
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 4: ninety eight ops nine to three strike out walk, ratio
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 4: so not good overall numbers, HERE i, LIKE i like
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 4: The a's in this, game, MAN i would probably only
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 4: go first five BECAUSE i don't want to deal with their.
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 4: BULLPEN i strongly considered. This The a's look like they
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 4: are getting the money fifty tickets fifty five percent of
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 4: the cash on. Them you're getting a much much better
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 4: travel spot for The a's. Here DO i SHOULD i
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 4: add this? ONE i, mean this was one of the
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 4: ONES i was strongly. Considering you, KNOW i worry about
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 4: the current form quite a bit with these, pitchers but you,
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 4: KNOW i, mean the splits are just so extreme With savale,
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 4: here and you're getting The a's as an. Underdog they
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 4: fer tickets fifty five percent of the cash on. Them
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 4: they might be a little bit less of an underdog
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 4: in the first, five, though because everybody knows their bullpen is.
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 4: Trash full game, total by the, way is eight and
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 4: a half or, nine with money coming in on the,
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 4: over which maybe the over does make sense because the
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 4: bullpens are kind of fatable. Here but let me, SEE
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 4: i do kind of want to play The a's, here
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 4: WHICH i understand it's, ugly but let me, See Action
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 4: network makes it look pretty strong. Here first. Five let
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 4: me see what are we getting on the first. Five
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 4: most of the books are around plus one of five
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 4: plus one ten a little bit better than. That in,
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 4: fact The Roman emperor, book he's given us a plus
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 4: one twenty on it in the first. Five you know,
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 4: what fuck, it let's do. It that'll be an extra play.
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 4: Here let's add the a's here in the first.
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 2: Five hang on.
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 4: Putting it in a's plus one. Twenty let's do, it
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 4: or a's first. Five, sorry hold on first. Five do
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 4: not play their, bullpen although maybe they win the.
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 2: Game it is a.
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 4: Situation will play, too but we're gonna go a's first
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 4: five plus one. TWENTY i do like finding these, underdogs
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 4: OR i think they have a lot of match up,
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 4: edges and you're getting them plus.
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: Money that is part of WHAT i do in.
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 4: Baseball so finally we have because the other two PLAYERS
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 4: i give up were. Favorites so there you, go like
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 4: small ish moneyline.
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: Favorites but there you.
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 4: Go that's a dog for you to sink your teeth. Into.
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 4: There all, RIGHT, Wnba there is one game here and
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 4: it is the preview of The Commissioner's Cup final Between
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 4: New york And Las vegas ON Usa.
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 2: Network The.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 4: Commissioner Cup final will be Next tuesday, Night i'm pretty,
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 4: sure and it is between these two. Teams so the
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 4: way The cup, WORKS i, guess is whichever team out
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 4: of The east and whichever team out of The west
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 4: have the best record In cup, play they play each.
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 4: Other SO i think both teams are gonna show up
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 4: for this game, too though as a precursor to. It
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 4: this is kind of a big, game and this game
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 4: counts as a regular season, game so it might mean
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 4: more than The cup game does because The cup game
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 4: is kind of just a bullshit thing THAT i think
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 4: isn't a regular season, result although maybe the stats still.
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 2: COUNT i don't.
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 4: KNOW i think the same thing happens in THE. Nba
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 4: The Cup final doesn't count on the regular season, record
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 4: BUT i think the stats still.
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 2: COUNT i don't.
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 4: Know vegas just had an easy win Over Golden, state
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 4: WHICH i wasn't sure it was gonna be that. EASY
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 4: i stayed off of that, game But vegas did have
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 4: a potential look ahead to this. Game they had come
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 4: off a, nice big revenge win Over. Phoenix Golden state
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 4: has their coach used to be an assistant For Las,
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 4: vegas so their coach Knows vegas pretty, well SO i,
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 4: Mean Golden state typically plays them pretty, well but that
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 4: was not the case. There vegas just annihilated. Them they
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 4: won by almost twenty. Points maybe that does set Up
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 4: vegas for a little bit of a let down here
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 4: though The vegas is still.
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 2: Good they're one of the best teams in the.
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 4: League they won the championship last, year WHICH i got
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 4: right in my bracket special just BECAUSE i wanted to
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 4: find a way to Fade minnesota and we got maybe
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 4: lucky Because collier went down For minnesota and, whatever And
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 4: vegas didn't have to face. Them but, Whatever vegas is.
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 4: Good New york is having to travel. In vegas is
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 4: staying at, home But New york is already in The
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 4: pacific time. Zone they Played la and if you, REMEMBER
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 4: i gave you guys a play on the show ON
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 4: la in that, game and they came back late and
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 4: won the. Game AND i told you in my handicap for.
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 4: That The liberty had had an eight game win streak
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 4: snapped with a loss To. WASHINGTON i like fading teams
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 4: when they have a long wind streak snapped BECAUSE i
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 4: think it can hang them. Over plus they had to
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 4: travel to The pacific time, zone and they had this
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 4: huge look ahead To. Vegas it was a very negative
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 4: spot for The liberty, there and we were able to
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 4: get that right with an outright underdog. Win but now
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 4: off of that, PERFORMANCE i think The liberties show up
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 4: in this game and after two losses as a, favorite
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 4: now now they're adjusted to The pacific time. Zone there
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 4: are reasons why they lost that. Game it was a bad.
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 4: SPOT i think they show up for this. GAME i
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 4: Like New york in this game Against. Vegas not gonna
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 4: be a play for, me BUT i think that's the
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 4: way to lean. Here the public is gonna look at
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 4: this and they're only gonna Play. Vegas based on these
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 4: recent results And vegas having a slightly better, record it
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 4: looks pretty easy to Play vegas because they're only a
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 4: two and a half point favorite. Here the money is
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 4: fading them. Though eighty three percent of the tickets seventy
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 4: one percent of the cash On, vegas SO i think
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 4: it makes sense to fade them.
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: HERE i would take The liberty plus.
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 4: The two and a half in that game IF i
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 4: was gonna play, it Although i'm not gonna give that
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 4: out as a.
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: Play.
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 4: Uh the total has gone up to one seventy eight
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 4: and a, half which is pretty. High that's one of
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 4: the highest totals you're gonna see in THE. Wnba SO
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 4: i don't know what the deal is. THERE i think
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 4: it undermakes some sense, though when you have a battle
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 4: between two good teams like, that the public tends to
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 4: want to play an over BUT i tend to think
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 4: it's more of a defense focused type of like you
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 4: get a good defensive effort usually from both teams in
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 4: a game that matters in a big. Game SO i
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 4: think it under maybe makes sense, there BUT i prefer
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 4: The New york. Side we do have a pitching, change
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 4: by the, way THAT i have to mention here With.
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 4: Washington pooland is now listed as their. Starter But i'm
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 4: pretty sure that what they're gonna do is just have
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 4: him be an. Opener that's what they do with. Him So,
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 4: WASHINGTON i still, think is gonna Have lattel. Pitch SO
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 4: i don't think that changes the handicap THAT i did
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 4: for That Philly washington. GAME i just think That pooland
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 4: is going to be an opener now in front Of.
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 4: Lattel i'm pretty Sure lttel is still gonna come out
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 4: of pitch for a starter's, workload.
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: If you want to call it. That SO i don't
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: think that really affects the.
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 4: Handicap, YEAH i still Think philadelphia should be able to
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 4: do some damage against That washington pitching, there even though
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 4: the money doesn't agree with me on. That but to,
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 4: me it looks Like philadelphia should get the job done
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 4: in that.
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: One All, Right World, cup the over is easy in which?
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 4: Game in the THE wnba, Game, NO i like the
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 4: under in that. GAME i don't KNOW wnba totals that,
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 4: well BUT i don't. Know to, me it looks like
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 4: a more defensive. Matchup the over is way too public as.
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 4: Well but generally when the total is that, high the
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 4: oddsmakers are telling you they think it's gonna be a
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 4: high scoring. Game, though so that would have me a
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 4: little bit. Concerned both teams definitely can, score but they're
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 4: both pretty.
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: Good on deep manse. Too All, Right World.
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 4: Cup in The World, CUP i was trying to find
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 4: a way to Play, portugal, man BUT i don't THINK
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 4: i want to get there with. It all these games
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 4: are On fox Or Fox sports one And fox won
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 4: And telemunda or. Whatever portugal is coming off an embarrassing. Result,
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 4: dude they're in the first game up at one. PM
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 4: i feel like my strongest opinions are always in the first.
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 4: GAME i don't know why that. Is yesterday wasn't the,
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 4: case BUT i was wrong anyway About, senegal so they
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 4: were close ish in that. Game But norway is just
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 4: a really good offense. Anyway, portugal this is an embarrassing
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 4: result they're coming off. Of they had a one to
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 4: one draw against The Democratic republic of The. Congo that's
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 4: an embarrassing, result. Dude portugal is one of the better soccer,
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 4: countries so they should bounce back. Here they're Playing uzbekistan.
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 4: Here portugal is clearly the way better, team but they're
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 4: minus seven hundred on the three way, line so you
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 4: can't really lay a price like, that in my, Opinion
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 4: so you got to look at other ways to try
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 4: to play this.
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 2: Thing SO i think the ways to play this are
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 2: you could look at the.
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 4: Spread On portugal and lay like minus one and a half,
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 4: maybe but you gotta pay like minus one fifty for.
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 4: That i'm not too keen on doing that, here ALTHOUGH
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 4: i did give out a play similar to that in
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 4: The spain game the other. DAY i give Out spain's
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 4: team total over and they were able to get that.
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 4: Done you could potentially do that in this game. Too
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 4: you could go over their team total over two and
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 4: a half actually is what it would. Be that might
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 4: be the way to do this game is to Go
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 4: portugal over their team total and just get them to.
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 4: Score you'd need them to score three goals, here but
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 4: that takes some of the question, marks you, know off
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 4: the table.
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 2: Here you could also.
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 4: Maybe go with them on a win to nil, situation
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 4: which means that they have to win in a. SHUTOUT
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 4: i don't like that really because it gets a little
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 4: bit fluky and like if it's if It's bekistan puts
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 4: in like a garbage time goal when the game is.
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 4: Over something that makes it a little bit difficult to
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 4: actually do. That but you'd get your price way down
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 4: On portugal if you want to do a win to
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 4: nil win.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 2: And a, shutout that is an.
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 4: Option but out of those, OPTIONS i think the best
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 4: option is to Play portugal over two and a half goals,
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 4: HERE i think is WHAT i would. Do they should
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 4: bounce back after this bad, performance but my issue is
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 4: That portugal looks like they got a lot of issues,
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 4: man like there's something going. ON i think With, RONALDO
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 4: i don't know what is happening. Here it looks like
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 4: there's something going on In portugal's heads right. NOW i,
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 4: mean obviously they should have won this game against The
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 4: congo in that you, know The Democratic republic of The
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 4: congo different from The republic of The.
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 2: Congo portugal was a big.
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 4: Favorite they were minus three to fifty on the three way.
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 4: Line but the problem THAT i would have with back
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 4: In portugal is their expected goals were really low in
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 4: that match point six' Five and congo point. Eighty Seven,
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 4: so portugal based on, expected goals was expected to basically
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 4: be in a one to one draw here or potentially
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 4: even lose. One ZERO maybe i wouldn't go quite, that
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 4: Far because portugal did dominate the, possession here so they
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 4: were really good at possessing, the ball but they also
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 4: only got one shot off on goal and somehow would
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 4: happen to be.
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 2: A Goal but i'm luckily, FOR them i guess it
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 2: was a really early.
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 4: Goal too so the fact that they scored six minutes
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 4: into the game and never, scored again that's what worries
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 4: me About playing portugal in any way here is it
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 4: seems like there's something mentally wrong with, them here and
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 4: they're offense sucked in, this game and you're gonna ask
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 4: them to score like.
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 2: Three. Goals like THE reason i did It.
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 4: With spain Was because spain is legitimately really really good
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 4: on offense and they had a lot of chances in
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 4: their first game that just didn't. Pan out wasn't really
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 4: the case Here, With portugal so That's why i'm gonna
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 4: lay off. This GAME but i would probably still lean
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 4: towards like a team total Over. With, portugal portugal by,
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 4: the way is staying in the, same stadium so that
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 4: is a little bit of. An advantage they're Playing, in
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 4: houston whereas It. Was bekistan they just Lost, TO colombia
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 4: i Believe, in mexico So ituz bekistan has a little
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 4: bit of a travel disadvantage here because they're having to
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 4: travel In from mexico and go through customs and.
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 2: Whatever the hell is involved. In that i'm. PRETTY sure
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 2: i don't KNOW why i don't see. It here i'm
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 2: pretty sure they Were in.
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 4: Mexico, though yeah They're In, mexico city, So yeah. Portugal
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 4: over the team told them that's probably my strongest opinion in,
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 4: soccer Today but i'm not gonna give it out as.
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 2: A play i really really worry about how bad their.
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 4: Offense was It, was bekistan, you know had an expected Loss,
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 4: against columbia not really shocking.
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 2: Or anything if you look at, that game.
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 4: The expected goals scored were expected kind of low on,
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 4: both sides so it looked more like maybe a two
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 4: To one columbia, win there something. Like that so do
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 4: with that info what, you want But ituz bekistan is not.
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 4: That Good if portugal doesn't win, this game there's something
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 4: really really wrong. With them portugal is actually the biggest
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 4: favorite on the. Board today england is the second biggest
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 4: favorite minus five twenty five playing up Here in foxborough
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 4: And the british are being a bunch of ass or,
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 4: excuse Me, the english you're being a bunch of assholes. Up.
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 4: Here man they're coming up here and they're not as
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 4: fun As the scots. At all they're Blasting the scots
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 4: because they hate. Each other we don't Really like england
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 4: here for, obvious reasons because we revolted. Against them We're new, england,
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 4: here man and we got a Lot of, irish Here
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 4: so we're more in tune With the irish And the scottish.
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 4: Up Here the english are just all they do is they,
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 4: Come in we're better Than.
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 2: The scots Fuck.
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 4: The scots and they're removing All the scottish traffic cones
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 4: that they put on the uh did they put on
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 4: the statues to which they do it as a sign
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 4: of hon. Or whatever we're all fine with it here and,
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 4: in Fact, in Miami the miami police are removing Them
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 4: because miami is a fucking buzzkill of.
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 2: A city.
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 4: Boston is way more Of a european city man for
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 4: good and. For bad, BUT yeah I, MEAN england i, don't,
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 4: KNOW man i do not like. Their vibe they're just
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 4: they're being a bunch of. Cocky assholes i'm Rooting against.
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 4: ENGLAND obviously i don't think they're gonna Lose. To ghana Here,
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 4: in Foxboro mass england is having to travel though they
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 4: Played In, Kansas city i'm. Pretty sure, or no they
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 4: might have Played. In, Texas, No arlington texas is where
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 4: they played their. First Match so england is coming Up
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 4: beating croatia four. To two that was a two to
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 4: two match pretty late in. The MATCH croatia i don't
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 4: think is as good as they have been in, the
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 4: Past though england did win. The game, like statistically if
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 4: you look, into it they kind. Of dominated they had
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 4: expected goals three point two to, point seven so it
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 4: wasn't really that surprising the. Final score but they did
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 4: have a penalty goal in the game that kind of
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 4: skewed the game. A bit and they Didn't outpossess croatia
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 4: that by that much fifty two to forty. Eight Percent
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 4: so england was not dominating the possession in, the game
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 4: but they did have way more, scoring chances so that's how.
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 4: They won their offense. Is good they're traveling In, from
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 4: texas which is, you know a little bit of a.
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 4: QUESTION mark I, GUESS ghana i think is coming In.
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 4: From toronto ghana won their first Match, against panami and
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 4: if you dig, into that it was a.
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 2: Close match it was supposed to be a.
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 4: CLOSE match I think ghana might have been a very
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 4: light favored on the three way. LINE there i think
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 4: they were plus money on the three. AWAY line i
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 4: think both. Teams were ghana won one nothing in what
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 4: was a. Close, Game statistically ghana Traveling, FROM toronto i
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 4: don't know if that's better. Or worse it's less travel,
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 4: distance wise but they do have to go, through CUSTOMS
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 4: so i.
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 2: DON'T know i don't have a good read on. This
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 2: game england is gonna.
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 4: Be, well actually both teams are not that desperate because
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 4: both teams won their, first match so both teams already
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 4: have three points on. The board portugal is gonna be,
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 4: more desperate by, the way because they only have one
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 4: point on the board and they're expected to obviously make
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 4: it through. Their Groups so portugal needs to get a
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 4: win when they should have had one in their first
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 4: game based on what the.
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 2: Odds were, But.
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 4: Yeah England and ghana both have. A win i think
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 4: at this point they're both very likely. To advance maybe
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 4: they've already, clinched it but. We'll see but both teams probably.
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 2: Try to get.
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 4: The, win yes the bastards. All right then We have Panama.
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 4: And croatia croatia is MINUS two pho five in this
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 4: one on the three.
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 2: Way line panama.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 4: Has a little bit of an advantage because they're Staying,
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 4: in Toronto so panama has a little bit of a travel.
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 4: Advantage here croatia is the, better team though both teams
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 4: have no points on the, board here so this game
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 4: matters a lot because the top eight third place teams
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 4: still advanced to the. Knockout round so these teams really
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 4: really need. To win these teams need to get the
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 4: three points on the board here and if, they do
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 4: they have a good chance to advance to the. Knockout
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 4: round i'm. Pretty sure so they got to. Do it
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 4: so both teams are gonna be showing up for. This
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 4: one croatia is the, better team as the oddsmakers are.
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 4: Telling you they had a much more difficult match in
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 4: their first Match against England where Panama. Played ghana ghana's,
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 4: not Bad but england is like one of the top
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 4: like several teams in the odds to win this, whole
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 4: Thing although england has not been Good In world cup
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 4: play man like throughout their, recent history which makes me
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 4: Laugh and i'm rooting, against, THEM dude i hope they
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 4: lose at. Some point THAT'S all i have to say.
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 4: About that croatia. SHOULD win, i mean when you get
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 4: a match like this with two teams that both are
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 4: really going to be, motivated here usually.
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 2: The better team is the team that. Wins out but,
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: you know.
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 4: We'll see croatia does have to, travel THOUGH like, i said,
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 4: they played they're having to travel Up to Toronto, from
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 4: texas so the travel edge Does favorite panama in. That
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 4: game and then We Have democratic republic Of the Congo.
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 4: Against colombia congo should be in a, letdown.
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 2: Spot dude it.
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 4: Was very unexpected that they were able To draw portugal one.
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 4: To one they're Staying. IN mexico i think that Game
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 4: WAS did i say it Was, In, Mexico, no no it.
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 2: Was not it Was. In houston. My mistake it Was.
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 4: In Houston so congo is Traveling from Houston to, mexico
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 4: Here so congo is in a bit of a. Disadvantage
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 4: here colombia is actually Staying, in mexico although they're Traveling
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 4: From mexico City. To Guadalajara but colombia is Staying in
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 4: Mexico and congo is coming Down. From HOUSTON so I
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 4: think congo is at a travel disadvantage here and they're
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 4: in a letdown spot out of that huge one to
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 4: one Draw, against portugal which is a.
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 2: Big.
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 4: Result man now they're not Gonna, overlook Colombia and colombia
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 4: might not be totally motivated here because they do already
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 4: have three points on the, board here with already having
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 4: a Win. OVER uzbekistan i Still lean colombia here in.
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 4: Some WAY probably i would just go money line, with
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 4: them the three. Way line they're minus one. EIGHTY five
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 4: i did give up one play that was in that
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 4: price Range with switzerland and it was an. Easy, WIN soccer,
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 4: i mean sometimes you have to do stuff like that
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 4: if you're gonna. Play soccer i'm not really a, soccer
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 4: Guy but i'm trying to dig in and find plays
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 4: to make In The. World cup and we're three and
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 4: zero with my players In The world cup, so FAR
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 4: so I think.
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 2: I'm doing an all right job being.
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 4: Selective HERE if i was, GONNA do I think portugal
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 4: over their team total is my favorite playout of. All
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 4: THESE second i Would say colombia. Money line they have
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 4: the travel. EDGE here i think they. DO win I
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 4: think congo is gonna be in a let.
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 2: Down here they're not Gonna.
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 4: Overlook Colombia but colombia is the better, team here so
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 4: That's what i'm looking, at there plus the better. Travel
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 4: spot but, then again they might not be going full
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 4: throttle here because they do already have the three, points
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 4: here but they're in the same Group, as Portugal so
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 4: colombia does have to hold serve Here because colombia is
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 4: Gonna play, PORTUGAL next, i think in their last group,
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 4: stage match so that's gonna be a. Big deal colombia
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 4: is likely not gonna win, that match So maybe colombia
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 4: will be motivated enough here to get. That Done, so,
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 4: CROATIA yeah, i mean they were all Right. Against england
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 4: it was two to two pretty late in. That, match
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 4: ALTHOUGH like i showed you the, statistics though they got
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 4: dominated statistically though as far as like which team.
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 2: Had the better chances that.
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 4: They created england dominated them as far as the.
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 2: Offensive CHANCES so i.
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 4: Don't, know yes they Should, beat panama but they're also
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 4: at a travel, disadvantage THOUGH like, i SAID so i
• 1:55:11
  Speaker 4: don't want to get involved.
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 2: With that That's My world.
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 4: Cup breakdown that's gonna do it for the show on
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 4: my plays today. In baseball all my players are in.
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 4: Baseball today we're gonna be On the mariners on the,
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 4: money line although the money is disagreeing with me. On
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 4: THAT but i gave you. MY breakdown i think it's
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 4: a solid breakdown on. That game we have the first
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 4: five Under In Indians white sox juiced the. Under four
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 4: if you want to go three and, a half, you could,
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 4: YOU know i don't disagree, with IT but i thought
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 4: the paying a little bit more for the four made.
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 4: More sense that WAS at i forget which book. THAT
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 4: was i apologize one of the books, had, that though
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 4: and you might be Able to the books might give
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 4: you a few options on the, number there so. You
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 4: might they might give you like alt lines and stuff
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 4: so you can figure.
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 2: It out and then we're on the a's first five.
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 4: Money, line hopefully hopefully that's gonna be a, good ONE
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 4: because i almost didn't put it on. The card, and
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 4: THEN like, I said i do Lean towards miami in
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 4: baseball and Towards the tigers in the, First five so
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 4: do what you want with. That information those would be
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 4: the next plays that Would be those would be my
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 4: next strongest after the Three that i'm putting on.
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 2: The, card here.
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 4: Learn a Tone, on twitter learn a Tone, On, instagram
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 4: like subscribe to the, show here tell people. ABOUT it i, appreciate.
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 4: It everybody thanks for hanging out in. THE chat I
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 4: Know i'm i'm a. Stubborn bastard i've become ornery. In
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 4: here you KNOW when I when, I disagree i try. Not,
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 4: To uh i'm gonna get more ornery if people are
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 4: really really talking.
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 2: Shit though so it's the way that.
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 4: It. Is man listen on audio two and the audio
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 4: numbers are going, up slightly, you know Slowly, On spreaker Apple.
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 4: And spotify. Run there give me a good review over
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 4: there too if you can.
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 2: Covered in you because my channel, on YouTube so you
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 2: can check.
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 4: THAT out i haven't done any for a while because
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 4: just my voice has not been good since my COLD that,
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 4: i had so. That's unfortunate patreon dot com slash learned.
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 4: A tone if you want to just throw me, some
• 1:57:13
  Speaker 4: support you get some bonus yuke. Stuff There loser cast
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 4: was on last Night because i'm gonna be. Out tonight
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 4: i'm going to See. The Strokes hopefully i'm not having,
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 4: another STROKE but i will finally. See them i've never
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 4: seen them, do It so I'M like i got to just,
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 4: see them, you know LIKE because i listened to Them
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 4: since i've been in. High school i've been listening to
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 4: them since high School and i've just never gone to.
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 4: See them, Like whatever i'm gonna go see. THEM finally
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 4: i think their original lineup is all still, there too
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 4: so doing that tonight hopefully it's a. Good show it'll
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 4: be a laid back show, at least so. That's good
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 4: i'm not, gonna be, you know in mosh pits for,
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 4: that SHOW so i think the whole thing might be.
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 4: Seeded too i'm not even sure it's At. THE godden
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 4: I think i have, a seat but there might be
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 4: like a floor, SECTION too i.
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 2: Don't know. We'll see and then what ELSE is i about?
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 2: TO say i don't know what else A is i?
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 4: Gonna Say so loser cast was on, last night so
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 4: sorry for people that. Miss that we kind of decided
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 4: spurrow the moment to do a Second straight. Monday show
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 4: they might be doing a show tonight too, without me
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 4: so subscribe over there and you'll get the notification if
• 1:58:17
  Speaker 4: they're gonna go live tonight.
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 2: AS well i don't know if they are.
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 4: Or not but we did the show last night with
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 4: four of us. No guests and then and Of course
• 1:58:25
  Speaker 4: tyler was the one who, was missing maybe doing Some
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 4: Extra father's, day stuff doing something with, HIS wife, i
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 4: mean And then Giants G, spot podcast The New york
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 4: giants PODCAST that i Do With.
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 2: Ben weir we should be doing a season preview.
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 4: Slash post draft show at.
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 2: SOME point i know it's the draft was a. While.
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 4: Ago now we still haven't, done this but we got
• 1:58:51
  Speaker 4: to do it at, some. Point man and then once the,
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 4: season starts we'll probably be doing. Weekly episodes so check.
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 4: That out that's gonna.
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 2: Do it, peace Everybody. How tuesday but don't you. Go
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 2: quiet don't you fade from.
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 1: The floor your name still mean something to somebody. For
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 1: show put the, glass, down baby look, at, me now,
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 1: hold on.
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 3: Hold on, nothing, nice now, hold on. Hold on let
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 3: me pull that bites hor but it don't get. The crown,
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 3: hold on hold on and stay with me now