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Jul 20 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260720 The Monday edition of the Closing Market Report provides a factual overview of commodity markets, international trade logistics, and weather forecasts for July 20, 2026. During the segment, analyst Curt Kimmel attributes immediate gains in corn and soybean futures to ongoing Black Sea conflicts, European drought, and Chinese export purchases. The report also outlines the finalized July 27 opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge, detailing its revised net-revenue toll agreement between Michigan and Canada. Furthermore, economist Ben Brown analyzes the market anomaly of robust Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans despite uncompetitive domestic pricing. Concluding the report, meteorologist Mark Russo notes that while the U.S. Corn Belt faces drier-than-normal conditions without threatening heat, Europe continues to endure severe, crop-damaging heatwaves. 01:19 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net 06:18 New Trade Route Between Canada and U.S. to Open 10:31 Ag Markets Discussion with Ben Brown, University of Minnesota 19:08 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 20th day of July, 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Curt Kimmel. We’ll hear from Ben Brown, agricultural economist at the University of Missouri, and also about the opening of a new bridge between Windsor and Detroit next week on Monday. It’ll handle a lot of agricultural goods. And then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast, too. We’ll do that with Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. Announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. 01:19 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net Todd Gleason: September corn for the day at $4.49 and a half, up 4 and 3/4. December 5 and a half higher at $4.73. March $4.88 and a half, up 5 and a half. August beans up 21 and a half cents, $12.26 the settlement price. November at $12.26 and a quarter, up 23 and a quarter. Bean meal up $3.30. Bean oil 13 cents lower. Wheat futures: soft red down 8 and 3/4 in the September. December 8 and a quarter lower, it settled at $6.91 and a half. The hard red December at $7.39, down 7 and 3/4 of a cent. Curt Kimmel is here from AgMarket.net out of Normal, Illinois, to take a look at the marketplace. Hi Curt, thanks much for being with us. It looked like in the overnight trade that it was going to be giddy-up, go, fire horse, and it kind of did for at least corn and soybeans. Tell me about it. Curt Kimmel: Well, it did. It was right out of the chute. They called for a higher opening. That materialized, and we consolidated for a little while but stayed firm. And during the day session, we kind of accelerated a little bit. I think it’s just a combination of things. Basically, Ukraine and Russia continue to trade rocket and drone fire back and forth. Grain coming out of that Black Sea region is still in question. The strait is still in question. Then, hitting on the overseas activity, the European situation remains warm and dry. They’re starting to downgrade the crops in some of those warm, dry areas, and possibly have to import grain in some areas where they’ve been exporters in the past. So, world events kind of caught the AI trading programs and gave the ability to hold things together. But then, here in the US, to add to that news, is basically still looking at adverse grain conditions across the Midwest. This afternoon’s crop conditions reports—it depends who you talk to, it’s all over the place—but corn conditions are expected to drop about 1 to 2 percent. Soybeans maybe 1 percent. Some are calling for more than that, but we’ll see how the next crop conditions report shows. But also here in the US, we got into the 8:00 hour, and we did see 264,000 tons of beans being announced as sold to China, 110,000 to unknown, and 100,000 tons of corn to Colombia. So we’re starting to see these sales show up on a regular routine. All this, coupled with some higher Indonesia palm oil values, gave the market a strong start here for the week, Todd. Todd Gleason: Now soybeans have rallied in the November contract about a dollar since the middle part of June, and the last low was there. All the way up to—not quite a contract high today. They’re eight or nine cents off the contract high, and that came very early in the inception of the contract. Do you think it can make a run at it? Curt Kimmel: We’re fixing to find out. With the gap and go here, I think that gives us some enthusiasm. The market could pull back. If it doesn’t fill that gap we left last night, it sets the stage to test this $12.45, $12.50 area. So we’re talking 50-cent increments now. We’re in a situation where, as producers offering some opportunities to get a little caught up, we caught up here at $12. We’ve been doing some price floors. Our next objective is $12.50, $13. You can probably draw lines about every 50 cents here. We’ll see if this thing follows through. The old saying is “turnaround Tuesday”, then old friend Zwicker used to say “sell a Wednesday rally in a bull market”. So there’s quite a bit of opportunity here. It’s quite exciting to see this action take some giddy-ups since the middle part of June there. Todd Gleason: Do you have technical thoughts on where the corn market might be going? Curt Kimmel: Yeah, if you look at a price chart, we got a nice spike bottom there. We’re hitting some retracements to the upside. If you draw an uptrend channel, it kind of comes near today’s highs or so. It’s going to be important to continue to make some higher highs as we move here. You can put your simple retracements in there, and we’re knocking those out. But if we can hold this thing together, December futures kind of looks like this $4.85, $4.90 area would be an area to keep an eye on real close. If you look at the momentum indicators, we’re getting a little toppy here. Now I know good bull markets can stay overbought, like good bear markets can stay oversold, but I’d be reaching out there. We’re gonna have maybe a little smaller crop, but we’re gonna have a crop we still need to move here this fall. Todd Gleason: Hey thanks much, I appreciate it. We’ll talk with you next week. Curt Kimmel: You bet. Take care, Todd. Todd Gleason: You too. Curt Kimmel is with AgMarket.net. 06:18 New Trade Route Between Canada and U.S. to Open Todd Gleason: Businesses and farms in the Midwest have a new way to access Canada. A badly needed new bridge between Canada and the US is about to open up. Our colleague in the National Association of Farm Broadcasting has more from the Canadian side of the border. Here’s Dennis Guy. Dennis Guy: Monday, July 27th should finally see an official opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge, with that date confirmed by Washington and Ottawa. Postponement of the June opening was due to a reworking of the original agreement signed back in 2012 by Michigan and Canada. All of the details have yet to be made public, but the new agreement is based on an initial 15-year term. The new terms have changed from a simple equal toll revenue split after Ottawa recouped its $4.5 billion for building the bridge. This new arrangement is based on a net revenue or profit split between Michigan and Canada, with those net revenues to be divided after the bridge’s annual operating costs are covered, which includes debt repayment amounts to Ottawa. This past Friday, Prime Minister Mark Carney clarified that Canada will administer the revenues to ensure that Canada’s infrastructure investment is repaid. Carney was clear that the word “net” carries a lot of weight. Mark Carney: It is an agreement for 15 years to split net revenues. Any sharing of the toll revenue won’t happen until all of the debt is repaid. And those net revenues are after operational costs—manning the toll booths, maintenance. The underlying agreement that we have with Michigan remains the same: no sharing of tolls until all the debt is repaid. Dennis Guy: Under the new terms, President Trump confirmed that Michigan’s 50% share of those net revenues or profits will be invested in a regional development fund on the Michigan side. While the Mayor of Windsor, Drew Dilkens, applauds the concept of regional investment, he does not think Michigan’s businesses or residents should start making plans for any profits from the bridge anytime soon. Drew Dilkens: My assessment is that for the first 15 years there’s going to be very little profit, as the vast majority of toll revenue goes to offset the cost of construction, which was the original deal with Michigan to begin with. I don’t think there’s going to be much to put in Donald Trump’s economic development pot, but we won’t know until traffic starts crossing the bridge and they start generating some revenue. Dennis Guy: Another term under the reworked deal is that Washington, joint with Michigan, must approve any toll increases of more than 10% imposed by Canada on the Gordie Howe Bridge. Drew Dilkens believes that was an easy term for Canada to go along with. As the current chairman of the Windsor-Detroit Tunnel Committee, Dilkens says that to increase toll amounts at any international crossing by 10% is very unlikely. Drew Dilkens: I think that’s a free give. I say that as the chair of the Windsor-Detroit Tunnel. The City of Windsor is a half owner in the tunnel that connects Windsor and Detroit, and so I understand toll increases. It’s very unusual to say you’re going to increase costs more than 10% anyway. Operationally, I think it means almost nothing. Dennis Guy: So the consensus at this point is that a badly needed new bridge will finally open. And while the new terms are not quite as straightforward as the original deal with Michigan, an improved international crossing that will carry about one quarter of all Canada-US goods traded is a net gain for both countries. Reporting from Canada, I’m Dennis Guy. Todd Gleason: And I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. You’re listening to the Closing Market Report on a Monday afternoon. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. By the way, the Windsor-Detroit crossing is one of the busiest trade corridors on the continent, handling roughly $15 billion in annual cross-border agrifood and agricultural trade. Total agricultural trade with Canada is about $74 billion. 10:31 Ag Markets Discussion with Ben Brown, University of Minnesota Todd Gleason: We’re now joined by Ben Brown, agricultural economist at University of Missouri, with FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute there, and Extension. Hi Ben, thanks for being with us. Where would you like to begin today as it relates to the marketplace? Ben Brown: Let’s start with the international markets. That’s been what’s been supporting both our grains and oilseed markets here as of late. Just even as we sit here today on Monday, July 20th, the November new crop soybean contract is setting contract highs. That’s normally not something we are talking about at the end of July. But here we are today, and a big part of this is what’s happening in the international trade front with US export demand. Todd Gleason: Well, is it that good? Ben Brown: You know, I could argue that what we’re seeing is a combination of factors across the spectrum here. Let’s just start with corn. I mentioned soybeans in the market, but let’s start with corn. For our weekly export inspections, corn exports came in at 61 million bushels of expected grain for the week. That puts our full year 190 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s current export target of 3.325 billion bushels. So, a very strong corn export pace. And when we turn and look at the new crop export sales, we had just over 12 million bushels of export sales last week. But even the export sales pace for the remainder of this year is well above—200 million bushels above the seasonal pace. I think that’s going to signal that we’re going to need to see a higher estimate for the old crop corn exports, plus potentially even the new crop corn exports, as we think about where product might be heading in 2026 into 2027. I think it remains strong. The big wildcard here is on the China front. Back in May, we had a US White House press agreement that said China agreed to buy $17 billion of non-soybean agriculture purchases. That amount has happened twice over time. The two years were 2021 and 2022. If we look at just those two years, China was able to do that by buying pretty large quantities of corn, cotton, and beef. Now given the tightness in our beef herd, I don’t think we’re going to be sending them a whole lot of beef—maybe some certain product cuts, but I don’t think we’re going to be sending them mass quantities of beef like we did back then. So, I think it could come out of corn. The market’s getting excited about potentially sending China corn to put in their stocks. So far we haven’t seen a whole lot of purchases. This is where I’ll pivot and talk a little bit about soybeans as well. When we look at the price of US corn compared to others around the globe, we’re currently about 50 to 60 cents per bushel more into the Chinese market. Just on that alone, we wouldn’t necessarily think that China would be interested in buying a lot of US corn. They can buy corn elsewhere cheaper. However, they have been buying soybeans here lately, and we’ve seen pretty much daily flash sales of 200, 300,000 ton purchases by the Chinese of US soybeans. And when we look at the price, we’re almost $2 more expensive than some of our competitors in Argentina and Brazil. We’re the most expensive soybean, and yet they’re buying soybeans from us for new crop delivery. The question is, do they start to fill some of that $17 billion non-soybean purchase commitment? The market thinks they might at some point, and certainly that’s starting to provide a little bit of support in both our grains and oilseed markets. Todd Gleason: So you’ve laid out a set of fundamentals that says the market should be going higher because we are having the exports, but at the same time, that we shouldn’t be having the exports and that you might be fearful of what’s been taking place. Ben Brown: Typical two-handed economist, right? Speaking out of both sides of my mouth. Let me summarize this in one sentence. There is very little economic indication that the Chinese should be buying from us in corn or soybeans. We’re the highest prices in the global market. The question is, why should they buy from us? And the soybeans right now are painting a case study of, they are buying soybeans from us. They agreed to buy set quantities of purchase commitments of US soybeans. They’ve started buying. The question is, will they buy all of it? When will they buy it? But they are buying, and they’re paying more for US soybeans than other places around the world. Todd Gleason: Can you make a logistical argument related to corn and the Black Sea, because that’s where China would normally look in part to fulfill their needs, and that’s likely to be very touch and go this fall? Ben Brown: Sure. So as of July 20th, their corn into China is almost a full dollar less than what ours is. Part of that’s due to transportation costs. Part of that is that we have seen this divergence in commodity markets versus the rest of the world, internal to Ukraine, right? That standard bottleneck in shipping. And so the price within Ukraine has dropped. But you bring up a question of, at what price, and how big is that wedge got to be before you can get product out of Ukraine into the global market? Economics would suggest that it exactly equals the transportation cost, and we’re all wondering, what’s the war premium on moving that product through the Black Sea? Where does that shake out to kind of help with price discovery? Todd Gleason: Have any answers? Ben Brown: Well, that’s my answer, right? It’ll be whatever the transportation cost is, is what that price wedge will be. We’re trying to figure that out at the moment, or the market’s trying to assess how big that transportation cost wedge is. But again, I do think that China would buy corn from us to fulfill that $17 billion non-soybean purchase commitments. It’s just a matter of, are they going to come into the market today, or is it going to be next week, is it going to be next month, is it going to be right before the US election? That’s the cynical answer. But certainly, that’s what the market’s starting to react to. Todd Gleason: How long do you think the political version of the fundamentals can hold up? Ben Brown: Well, depending on how strongly the enforcement mechanisms come together. This is the hard part—what’s the enforcement mechanism for all this? The answer has been to rapidly increase tariffs. Well, that doesn’t seem to be a political lever anymore. But again, from the Chinese perspective, to get access to the US consumer market, these ag purchases are a relatively small drop in the bucket to be able to get that access. It’s just a question of the enforcement mechanism. If we could answer that, we could answer the rest of it. Right now, a lot of things are happening that economics wouldn’t suggest should happen, and it’s creating quite a bit of uncertainty. Again, this rally here in late July on US soybeans is kind of unique. Todd Gleason: And then how does inflation play into this, if at all, over the next six months? Ben Brown: Well, in two ways, and trade-offs here. You asked about inflation, but typically when oil prices go up, we start to see inflation. The Federal Reserve increases their short-term interest rate to help control for inflation. So we’ve got some trade-offs there, but there is a pretty strong correlation between oil prices and commodity markets. Both inflation and commodities trace back to oil prices. We have seen an increase in oil prices here as of late. If that were to continue, I think we would expect to see prices for both everyday goods and even our raw commodities to see a little bit of support. Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Ben. Ben Brown: Yep, no problem. Thanks, Todd. Todd Gleason: Ben Brown is an agricultural economist with the University of Missouri. He’s based in Columbia and part of FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, and Extension. 19:08 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai Todd Gleason: Let’s check the weather forecast now. Mark Russo is here. He is with EverStream Analytics. A lot of area to cover today, and a lot of information too, I think, Mark, about the Corn Belt and the weather here. Let’s begin with it. What do the next couple of weeks look like, or what is it that you think is most important in the weather forecast? Mark Russo: Yeah, there’s two main items here Todd with the forecast coming up for the Midwest Corn Belt. In terms of temperatures, which are most important right now given the fact that we’re still pollinating corn and will for the next couple of weeks, for most of the Midwest, we do not see any threatening heat. That’s especially true across the core of the Midwest. Not only here in Illinois, but across Iowa and Indiana as well. There will be some heat across the far western and northwestern portion of the Midwest, as well as into the Northern Plains. States like Nebraska, South Dakota, and up into the Dakotas, that’s where the main heat is going to be. Primarily next week. They are going to get a little bit of a break here this week across that area, but for next week, that’s when the hottest temperatures are expected and the most significant heat stress in places such as the Red River Valley there in the northwestern part of the Midwest. So that’s the temperature side of things. As for precipitation, actually most of the belt is going to be drier than normal over the next few weeks. That’s not an item of concern now, since recent rains have produced generally a normal to abundant soil moisture. But if that were to continue into August, then that would become certainly more and more important and more detrimental not only for kernel-filling corn at the time, but then also yield-sensitive pod development stage for soybeans. So that’s what we’re watching here. Some indications that once we get into week two of August, that would be the better window of opportunity for rain. That’s going to be really the focus of attention and obviously a pretty critical timeframe here where rains are going to need to return before things go backwards here. Todd Gleason: And then turn your attention to France. They have had a very, very rough summer. Is it continuing to be that way? Mark Russo: Yes, it certainly looks that way here, Todd, with not only France’s pattern, but in general across Europe. It’s a continuation of additional heat waves coming up and, along with that, a continuation of generally below-normal rainfall. What’s already now basically a crop disaster in places like France—some of the lowest crop conditions of the past 20-plus years—there’s just no sign of that changing here anytime soon. I guess the one piece of good news is that in Eastern Europe, they haven’t been as hot and as dry as Western Europe. So some of the larger corn-producing countries like Romania and Poland haven’t been quite as bad compared to France. But nonetheless, their crop conditions continue to either stay the same or go downhill. Overall, Europe is having by far the most extreme heat and dryness this growing season of any major ag area in the Northern Hemisphere. Todd Gleason: Thank you much, we’ll talk with you again next week. Mark Russo: You’re welcome, Todd. Thanks for having me. Todd Gleason: Mark Russo is with EverStream Analytics, helped us to wrap up this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. Online, on-demand at willag.org. I’m Todd Gleason.