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Latest / The Investment Perspective, with Ninety One

#102 El Niño is brewing a third inflation shock, which markets have yet to price in

El Niño is converging with the Middle East energy shock and fertilizer supply disruptions to create a compounding inflation risk that markets have barely begun to account for. Nicolas Jaquier draws on IMF research showing El Niño has historically driven a fifth of global commodity price swings, and explains why Brazil and Argentina are better placed to absorb the shock than Southeast Asia and Colombia.

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