Latest / The SPY Trader / Bad News is Good News: October’s Market Reload

Transcript

Bad News is Good News: October’s Market Reload · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hello everyone and welcome back to the Spy Trader podcast .
• 0:04
  I am your host , Barnaby BullMarket , and it is a pleasure to be with you as we wrap up another wild week in the world of finance .
• 0:11
  It is currently 2:30 pm on Friday , October 2nd , 2026 , here on the Pacific coast .
• 0:19
  If you are listening to this , you are probably looking at a sea of green on your screens , and frankly , it is a pretty good way to kick off the weekend .
• 0:28
  Today we saw a classic case of what we call bad news is good news .
• 0:32
  The big story was the September jobs report , which showed that U.S.
• 0:37
  employers added only 29,000 jobs .
• 0:40
  Now , usually , you want to see more jobs , but this number was way below the 84,000 expected .
• 0:48
  Because the labor market is cooling and unemployment ticked up to 4.2 percent , the market is betting the Federal Reserve will finally stop hiking interest rates for a while .
• 0:59
  Traders think there is only a 21 percent chance of a rate hike in late October now , which is a huge drop from earlier this week .
• 1:07
  Looking at the indices , the S&P 500 , which you can track through the SPY or VOO ETFs , rose about 0.73 percent today to finish near 7,722 .
• 1:22
  That puts us within 1 percent of our alltime record !
• 1:25
  The Nasdaq , or QQQ , led the pack with a 1.2 percent gain because tech stocks love the idea of lower interest rates .
• 1:34
  Even the small caps in the Russell 2000 , the IWM , were up 0.9 percent .
• 1:40
  It was a broad rally , though we still have some heavy clouds overhead .
• 1:44
  The ongoing conflict with Iran is still weighing on things , and with 9,000 more troops heading to the Middle East , there is definitely a risk premium built into gold and oil right now .
• 1:56
  In the corporate world , Nvidia , or NVDA , is just unstoppable .
• 2:01
  It hit a new alltime high today of 237.88 , and its market cap is now over 5.7 trillion dollars .
• 2:11
  To put that in perspective , their share buyback program alone is 150 billion .
• 2:17
  Tesla , TSLA , also had a great day , jumping over 5 percent thanks to solid delivery numbers .
• 2:25
  On the flip side , Nike , NKE , fell more than 3 percent because of struggles in China .
• 2:31
  It is a reminder that even in a rally , specific company problems still matter .
• 2:36
  Now , let’s talk about how to play this .
• 2:38
  I am looking at an overweight position in the QQQ .
• 2:42
  Technology is the big winner when the Fed pauses , and with NVDA and TSLA showing such strength , it is a great way to capture that AIdriven growth .
• 2:53
  If you are looking for a hedge , I like TLT , which tracks longterm Treasuries .
• 2:58
  Yields hit a 24year high earlier this week and are starting to pull back .
• 3:02
  If the economy continues to cool , bond prices should head higher , making TLT an attractive entry right now .
• 3:09
  For the cautious types , I still suggest holding or accumulating some GLD .
• 3:15
  With gold at 4,141 an ounce and the Iran conflict still active , it is a smart safety net .
• 3:23
  If you are worried about a recession , look at XLV for healthcare .
• 3:27
  Stocks like UnitedHealth , UNH , stayed green today and offer some stability if things get rocky .
• 3:34
  Finally , for the longterm core of your portfolio , stick with VTI .
• 3:38
  Historically , the fourth quarter of a midterm election year is very strong , averaging over a 5 percent gain .
• 3:45
  My strategy for you is this : September was a reset , and October looks like the reload .
• 3:52
  Use any small dips in tech like XLK or QQQ to build your positions before earnings season starts next week , but keep a barbell approach by holding some TLT to protect yourself if rates stay high .
• 4:06
  That is it for this edition of Spy Trader !
• 4:09
  I will see you back here in a few hours for the final market wrap .
• 4:13
  Happy trading !