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Is the West Bank About to Explode? · Israel Policy Pod

0:04
Neri: Shalom and welcome to the Israel Policy Pod.
0:07
Neri: I'm Neri Zilber, a journalist based in Tel Aviv and a policy advisor to Israel Policy Forum.
0:13
Neri: We have a very important episode this week where we'll be taking a deep dive into what's happening in the West Bank.
0:19
Neri: Spoiler alert, nothing good.
0:21
Neri: But we'll be speaking with our good friend Michael Milstein this week.
0:25
Neri: Michael is, of course, a colonel in the IDF Reserves and the head of the Palestinian Studies Center at the Dian Center at Tel Aviv University.
0:33
Neri: He's also previously the head of the Palestinian Arena in Israeli military intelligence and advisor to the IDF general responsible for the Palestinian territories, including the West Bank.
0:44
Neri: I really wanted to get Michael's take on a deadly incident that took place in the Northern West Bank last Friday that pretty much dominated the conversation here in Israel for much of the past week, and to explain how, under this current Israeli government, the seeds have been planted, some would say intentionally so, for a possible explosion in the territory in a whole host of ways.
1:07
Neri: Finally, we took a look at what a potentially new Israeli government may be able to do to reverse the very negative trends of recent years in the West Bank.
1:18
Neri: Like I said, a very important episode on an issue that's almost been lost in the shuffle over the past three years of war pretty much across the Middle East.
1:29
Neri: But first, a few thoughts from me.
1:32
Neri: So we're recording this episode on Wednesday afternoon Tel Aviv time.
1:37
Neri: Yesterday, Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Donald Trump once again at the White House, their eighth meeting in total since Trump retook office in January of 2025.
1:50
Neri: As Netanyahu never ceases to remind us, rightfully so, I should add, this is more than any other world leader has met with the U.S.
1:59
Neri: President.
2:00
Neri: But the question on everyone's mind: how did this particular meeting actually go?
2:05
Neri: So, look, on the one hand, it took Trump almost four months to invite Bibi to a meeting after that initial April ceasefire with Iran that halted the war.
2:16
Neri: To put this in perspective, after the June 2025 12-day war, that first Iranian war, BB was in the White House for a victory lap, a mutual victory lap, we should say, within two weeks of that war ending.
2:31
Neri: Two weeks.
2:31
Neri: So that's, I think, uh pretty indicative of where we stand, uh, not only of the relationship and how it's evolved, but also the success or lack thereof of this more recent Iran war.
2:43
Neri: We also saw a uh, shall we say, test your Trump in interviews with the media ahead of the Tuesday meeting when he was asked about uh two issues in particular that Netanyahu had highlighted previously.
2:56
Neri: Um, number one, the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, um, and the need to, quote, take care of Iran's pickaxe mountain nuclear site.
3:06
Neri: Um, so Trump didn't react too well to uh to being asked about that.
3:10
Neri: Um, at Netanyahu's prompting uh of those interviewees, or rather, interviewers.
3:17
Neri: Um, and yesterday at the White House, there was no media present uh or even comments to the press given, uh no one-on-one meeting between Bibi and Trump.
3:26
Neri: Uh, and really BB and the Israeli delegation came in through the side door into the West Wing and not through the front door of the White House.
3:35
Neri: So that's all on the more, shall we say, negative side of the ledger.
3:38
Neri: On the positive side of the ledger, uh, after the meeting, both Netanyahu and Trump uh emphasized that the meeting went well.
3:46
Neri: Uh, it was all positive, etc.
3:49
Neri: Um, that's almost to be expected, although not necessarily a given uh when you're talking about Trump.
3:56
Neri: But what was less expected was Iran firing a number of ballistic missiles overnight at a U.S.
4:02
Neri: military base in Jordan.
4:05
Neri: Uh luckily all the missiles were intercepted.
4:07
Neri: But as I'm recording this, Trump is now vowing a severe response to the Iranian surprise attack, which could in turn draw a major Iranian response.
4:18
Neri: And round and round we go into possibly another major escalation, uh, which is, and I'm not speaking out of school here, uh, exactly what Bibi has wanted ever since the war was, to his mind, prematurely halted back in April.
4:33
Neri: So, bottom line, as always, Bibi Netanyahu may be the best or the most talented politician of his generation, but he also may just be the luckiest politician of his generation.
4:47
Neri: With that, let's get to Michael Müllstein.
4:52
Neri: Hi, Michael, welcome back to the podcast.
4:54
Michael: Hi, Nari.
4:56
Michael: Like to see you, and of course, uh thank you for having me.
4:59
Neri: It's great to see you, Michael, and uh it's always nice to have you on uh this podcast.
5:04
Neri: Um, unfortunately, you haven't been on since last December, which is actually a really long time for you.
5:10
Neri: Uh and back then we we mostly focused on Gaza, obviously, which uh had just seen a ceasefire.
5:16
Neri: Uh it was still very fresh in our minds.
5:18
Neri: But I wanted you back on today to talk about the uh the almost forgotten front uh of the past three years in this multifront war, which is uh the West Bank.
5:26
Neri: Yes.
5:27
Neri: Uh, which is now itself uh heating up, uh has a lot of experts very concerned, including, I dare say yourself.
5:34
Neri: And we're gonna uh hopefully explain to the audience why you're so concerned and what's actually happening there, because it's it's super important.
5:40
Neri: It's always has been super important, but uh it's critically important uh these days, especially.
5:47
Neri: So, first thing, the prop proximate cause for all the concern, um, and this is by way of background for the audience, uh there was a deadly incident uh last Friday in the Palestinian village of Tel, which is in the northern West Bank, just outside the big major Palestinian city of Nablus.
6:04
Neri: So northern West Bank, Palestinian village of Tel.
6:06
Neri: Um, there are competing versions to what actually took place that morning in Tel, but the facts are these uh a group of settlers, uh including, by the way, children, uh, were on a hike, an early morning hike through, at the very least, the outskirts of this village, uh, when they got into an altercation, clashes, conflict, call it what you will, um, with a group of local Palestinian villagers uh from Tell.
6:33
Neri: Now, critically, this initial clash uh did not see any of the sides firing on each other.
6:37
Neri: I think it was more just verbal and maybe a bit physical.
6:40
Neri: Uh, but the settlers called for help, uh, both from the nearby settlement of Chabat Gilad and also from the IDF, um, which arrived.
6:50
Neri: Uh, after which, and this is where things get a bit hazy, um, one of the Palestinians snatched a rifle from one of the settler first responders, and the Palestinian opened fire.
7:01
Neri: Uh at the end of all this, uh, tragically, four Palestinians and two Israelis uh were killed, uh, including an IDF officer, one of the people uh who came and tried to respond to this incident.
7:14
Neri: Um, so first question to you, Michael, stemming from the events of last Friday.
7:19
Neri: Uh, what do you think actually happened in that Palestinian village?
7:22
Neri: Because it is uh has been heavily contested here in Israel in in recent days.
7:26
Michael: Yeah, and you know, I'm really glad, uh Neri, that you started with this uh complex description.
7:33
Michael: Because you know, uh, and I will immediately speak about uh the discourse that took place in Israel during the last week.
7:40
Michael: It's it's a kind of a mind uh uh uh field.
7:44
Michael: I mean, you know, you are trying to analyze things from the professional point of view, but you cannot run away from the political uh uh considerations and the political uh arguments which actually surrounds you all over.
8:00
Michael: Regarding this uh event and in uh in TEL, and you know, we can argue or we can discuss on the term itself.
8:07
Michael: Well what was it?
8:09
Michael: A terror attack?
8:10
Michael: You know, most of the the right wing supporters they say, of course, it's a terror attack.
8:15
Michael: Well, you know, actually you cannot really describe it.
8:19
Michael: Of course, it's a tragic one, too.
8:20
Michael: Israelis were murdered, no doubt at all, but I'm not sure that you can really describe it as um, you know, a classic uh terror attack.
8:29
Michael: And you know, when you check at least the last decade, several times there were uh all kinds of warnings of the security organizations here in Israel, of IDF intelligence, Amman, uh of the Shin Bet about a kind of uh an explosion that will took place in and will take place in in the West Bank.
8:50
Michael: And usually uh the roots or the reasons uh for these explosions were I I would describe it as the behavior or the policy of the enemy.
9:01
Michael: I mean, you know, and efforts of Hamas to promote terror attacks, weakness of the PA, economic crisis that will uh that impacts the the uh the uh strategic uh uh level in the in the West Bank.
9:18
Michael: And uh sometimes even you know the impact of events uh which took place in Gaza or uh in uh temp in the Temple Mount.
9:28
Michael: So we spoke mainly in Jerusalem.
9:32
Michael: So we we spoke mainly about threats which actually are driven by by uh by uh uh uh things that happen uh among the enemy.
9:44
Michael: While when you're checking the last weeks or months, you find that you find a very interesting uh thing.
9:51
Michael: You know, when you you check the data, the basic data, the numbers of uh terror attacks, of casualties, you see ongoing decline uh regarding uh the Palestinian threat.
10:04
Michael: I mean, you know, since uh February, March, March, we're speaking about ongoing decline in every aspect of terror attacks, and of course, less and less casualties.
10:16
Michael: So you asked yourself, you know, Israel has really enormous achievements regarding uh uh confronting and fighting uh terror in the West Bank.
10:26
Michael: Israel evacuated three uh terror, three refugees, uh refugees' camps with in the northern parts of Samaria, which were actually the center, the source of most of the terror in uh in the West Bank.
10:40
Michael: So what was changed right now?
10:43
Michael: What is the source of the reason or the reason that uh IDF and the government elaborate this uh warning about explosion in the West Bank?
10:54
Michael: And you find that the reason are clashes, violent ones between the Israelis, the Israeli settlers and the Palestinians.
11:05
Michael: And these these are not kind of usual, uh let's call it classic, classical uh uh uh violence or clashes, these are uh unprecedented clashes, violence, actually terror attacks of uh the Jew uh uh committed by the Jewish uh uh radical settlers against the Palestinians.
11:28
Michael: And uh, you know, we we you you spoke, you described the the uh event in Til.
11:34
Michael: You know, I think that it's a kind of reflection of of this whole phenomenon.
11:40
Michael: I mean, you know, the the four Palestinians that were involved in this event and were killed by IDF in the morning, they didn't know, they didn't plan any any terror attack.
11:52
Michael: That you know, the the the violence was a result of the clash that was a result of the fact that the Israelis got into this village.
12:01
Michael: I mean, it's a it's a kind of a hostile village against Israelis.
12:04
Neri: And it's against the law, it's against the law for Israeli Jewish citizens.
12:09
Michael: It was not coordinated with IDF.
12:12
Michael: And you know, one of the the um uh problems today, uh I'm sure that we will uh speak about it more, is that it's not a kind of initiative of uh, you know, all kind of um uh isolated uh small groups of settlers.
12:29
Michael: They actually find a broad support among the coalition, among the government, mainly uh among the religious uh Zionism uh uh leaders, mainly Smotlic, which declares every day about the need to erase the PA, that the PA is an enemy, that we need to take control over all the West Bank, and that, you know, on Friday, immediately after the event, he spoke about evacuating the village of Til.
12:58
Michael: Exactly, he said, exactly like we did in the three refugees camps uh uh in the northern parts of Samaria.
13:05
Michael: And I'm asking myself, okay, but who is the enemy?
13:09
Michael: Because in Janin refugee camp, the enemy was very, very uh uh um it it was very uh easy to understand who is the enemy.
13:21
Michael: Islamic jihad, Hamas, uh uh Fateh, I mean uh Shuhada, uh Aksa Burgades, but right now who is the enemy?
13:28
Michael: All the the citizens of Teil, are you going to evacuate them?
13:33
Michael: So, you know, I I think that right now we we should be frank with ourselves uh uh honest with ourselves and uh say that you know the sources of the current tension uh is mainly uh you can find the roots of this, uh the seeds of the of the current uh tension in the Israeli side.
13:51
Neri: Yes, uh look look in the mirror.
13:53
Neri: Um we're gonna unpack uh a lot of what you just got into, Mikhail.
13:56
Neri: That was a great, great opening comment about the I mean tragic events of last Friday.
14:01
Neri: Uh just for our audience, the PA is the obviously the Palestinian Authority, uh the entity that runs, governs, has self-rule in parts of the West Bank, primarily the the major Palestinian population centers, uh the cities.
14:16
Neri: Um and then you mentioned uh Samaria, that's uh the the Jewish name for the Northern West Bank.
14:21
Neri: Uh usually goes along with uh Judea and Samaria.
14:24
Neri: Judea is the southern part of the West Bank.
14:26
Neri: Um we're not gonna get into the the contestation about what to call the West Bank.
14:32
Neri: Um I think you and I still call it the West Bank, but many people, if not most people here in Israel, call it Judea and Samaria, and it is um it has become a thing uh I guess in the last like 20 years, right?
14:43
Michael: Yeah, and you know, Nelly, we can have uh a chapter, uh a talk, a very, a very long one, only about the terms and the and the use of the all the terms because you know it's uh it's really a reflection for so many conflicts and so many gaps and so many uh uh uh uh disputes uh between the two peoples and in inside the Israeli society.
15:09
Michael: Inside.
15:10
Neri: Yeah, yeah, uh hundred percent.
15:12
Neri: Uh we're probably not gonna do that to the audience uh on this episode.
15:16
Neri: Not now, no, it could be a whole other episode.
15:19
Neri: Um and just finally, you mentioned uh this kind of major operation against uh three refugee camps in the northern West Bank in Samaria.
15:27
Neri: Um this happened uh in early 2025, so a year and a half ago, a major operation uh in Janin camp, uh Nurisham's camp, and Tulkarm camp.
15:37
Neri: And you and I have have been there.
15:39
Neri: Uh I've been to Janin camp.
15:41
Neri: Um a really heavy IDF operation.
15:44
Neri: Uh nobody's there anymore.
15:46
Neri: Right.
15:46
Neri: I mean, it's completely cleared out.
15:48
Neri: Uh a lot of it's damaged, if not destroyed.
15:50
Neri: Um, these are major operations in the West Bank in the midst of obviously the larger war in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, and etc.
15:59
Neri: So, Michael, you I think rightly pointed out that it's the Israeli side, the settler side that is actually causing the quote unquote friction, uh, as they call it, on the ground.
16:10
Neri: And the response from the government, at least since last Friday, has been, like you said, uh very severe, at least rhetorically, if not in practice just yet.
16:19
Neri: Um, but to your point, it's not like there are uh organized cells like in the past in the village of Tell or even in Nablus.
16:28
Neri: Uh, and yet you've seen the IDF conduct raids and arrests.
16:32
Neri: They've moved additional forces into the West Bank.
16:35
Neri: Um, now they want to go after a new refugee camp, as Defense Minister Israel Khat said said yesterday uh on Tuesday.
16:42
Neri: So, I mean, is there a an operational logic to this, or is it more, let's say, political, ideological?
16:50
Michael: Well, mostly, actually, and and once again, you know, I really believe that the the leadership here in Israel should speak in a very uh in a direct manner with with the public and uh you know expose uh all its interests.
17:05
Michael: And it seems that, you know, when you are trying to analyze what are the what is the logic or what are the interests or what are the uh considerations of uh of uh all the uh ideas that are being elaborated, we are speaking about ideological, deep ideological, even religious uh considerations.
17:25
Michael: You know, when for example Smotlich uh speaks about um uh full annexation of the of the West Bank, the implementation of what he calls the decisive plan that he published uh when was it, 2017.
17:40
Michael: Uh uh, he actually speaks about a kind of religious vision.
17:45
Michael: And you know, it's amazing.
17:46
Michael: I'm speaking about it a lot here in the Israeli media.
17:50
Michael: Um it's not a kind of uh collective national vision, it's a vision of one sector, actually, one group uh from the religious Zionism stream.
18:03
Michael: And the this this idea, this policy, this strategy is being imposed on the whole people of Israel.
18:10
Michael: And I'm quite sure that most of the Israelis, first of all, they do not visit the West Bank, of course.
18:16
Michael: I mean, 90% of the Israelis they do not know what is going across the green line.
18:22
Michael: Second, they were not asked about about it.
18:25
Michael: I mean, you know, there is no consensus about it.
18:28
Michael: There were no elections uh that uh ask the people, do you agree that we will annex or we will actually control the West Bank even with no uh public uh uh announcement about annexation?
18:42
Michael: Do you understand the meaning of this situation?
18:45
Michael: So unfortunately, uh yeah, we we speak about deep ideological reasons, and uh it seems that uh, you know, these uh moves, these uh uh efforts of uh Smotrich, they really changed the whole situation in the West Bank.
19:03
Neri: So that's a good segue.
19:05
Neri: Let's explain what Mr.
19:07
Neri: Smotlich has done uh since he became not only finance minister, but also a, as they call it, minister in the defense ministry.
19:15
Neri: Basically, Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu handed the West Bank to Smoltlich um at the beginning of this current government, way back in what was it, December 2022, early 2023, when they when they started, um seems like a lifetime ago, uh, with elections coming up, almost you know, full four-year term.
19:35
Neri: Uh so Smoltich takes control of essentially the governance of the West Bank uh and he goes to work.
19:42
Neri: And you've called this really nothing short of a revolution.
19:44
Michael: Yeah, sure.
19:46
Michael: He calls that a revolution, and you know this is his ticket for the elections.
19:50
Michael: He wants to show that he has really great achievements.
19:54
Michael: He cannot really uh, I think, ISS, he cannot really demonstrate any dramatic achievements regarding economy or or uh or security.
20:03
Michael: But the main the main uh uh achievement that uh is very important for his base is the uh you know this dramatic revolution of the of the the settlement.
20:15
Michael: And uh, you know, we spoke nearly about okay, what were uh what was the the dramatic change that was promoted by uh by Smotric.
20:25
Michael: And here I think that we should uh elaborate three three things.
20:28
Michael: You know, from day one uh uh of uh of this government, I mean after he was nominated as a minister in the Ministry of Defense, he took control over the uh over Kogat, the coordinator of governmental activities in the territories, and mainly the uh civil administration in the West Bank.
20:50
Michael: And of course, it's not because uh he wants to promote any relations with the Palestinians.
20:55
Michael: That's all the only reason was to uh you know to um expand and to develop the settlements in in the West Bank.
21:04
Michael: And you know, he he he gave them billions of of dollars since uh January 23, since uh this uh government was established.
21:14
Michael: Second, of course, he established a lot of new settlements in in the West Bank.
21:19
Michael: We are talking about dozens of new settlements and the farms.
21:24
Michael: I mean, we are speaking about 140 farms all over the West Bank.
21:31
Michael: And uh, you know, he declares in a very clear manner uh there are no secrets regarding Smotric that his basic aim is to put all kind of buffers inside the West Bank so there will be no uh chance that uh in the future uh there will be a Palestinian state.
21:50
Michael: I mean, you know, he he speaks about the point of no return, that he will create so many, so many um uh Israeli points all over the map.
22:00
Michael: That you will not be really able to speak about kind of independent Palestinian entity in the future.
22:06
Neri: Or separation between Israelis and Palestinians.
22:09
Michael: Of course.
22:10
Michael: And once again, if you read his decisive plan from 2017, he speaks about a very important, actually the most important goal from his point of view.
22:21
Michael: One state between the river of Jordan and the sea, the Mediterranean Sea.
22:26
Michael: The whole land is ours, and he says, of course, and there will be two kinds of uh citizenships between the river and the sea, the Israelis, and the rest.
22:37
Michael: But as Smotric uh argues, it will still be a democracy, and it it we you will not be able to call that or to consider this situation as apartheid.
22:50
Neri: And he also says, look, uh, you know, he doesn't recognize um the double class, you know, uh citizenry or the issue of apartheid.
22:58
Neri: He also says, you know, the Palestinians, uh, if they don't want to live under this uh regime, my regime, uh, they're free to leave.
23:05
Neri: They're free to emigrate, which is which is really what he would like them to do.
23:08
Michael: Absolutely.
23:08
Michael: And you know, one of the problems, Erian, you know, only if you're getting into the uh internal political discourse here in Israel, you do understand that.
23:16
Michael: He, I mean, smotlich, he uses a lot of biblical terms.
23:21
Michael: For example, you you mentioned the the rel the uh you know the the basic policy towards the minorities.
23:28
Michael: He speaks about, he called that, Joshua Binun doctrine.
23:32
Michael: I mean, what is Joshua Binun Joshua Binun doctrine is to offer all the other peoples of the of the of the land, of Canaan land, three options.
23:43
Michael: You can live here, but uh be, you know, a kind of uh second-class citizen, you will not have uh equality.
23:52
Michael: Second, you can fight us and then we will kill you.
23:55
Michael: And third, you can leave.
23:57
Michael: And you know, uh uh it's amazing because he speaks about it.
24:01
Michael: He speaks about uh bringing uh uh uh I mean implementing the vision of Erz Israel Shlema, you know, one state, including, by the way, parts of Jordan and Iraq and Syria.
24:14
Neri: Yeah, the the whole land of Israel doctrine ideology.
24:18
Neri: No, no, they they truly they truly believe it.
24:20
Neri: The problem is he was given he was given the tools to um begin implementing it, at least in the West Bank.
24:25
Neri: That's that's the original set.
24:27
Neri: Absolutely.
24:28
Neri: And and you know of this government.
24:30
Michael: He he uh I mean not only he uh uh uh Smotlic, but actually all the uh leaders, uh the political and the spiritual leaders of the of this stream of uh of the uh religious Zionism, they consider all the Arabs, not only the Palestinians as Amalek, you know, this tribe from the Bible, that God actually uh ordered uh the people of Israel, the uh uh Amish to eradicate them from the map.
25:02
Michael: So you know, you do understand that if this is the these are the basic principles of your policy, how can you speak about you know uh diplomacy, uh political settlements, uh international relations?
25:16
Michael: You live in a kind of a biblical uh entity.
25:20
Michael: And and I think it's it's it's it's extremely dangerous uh for Israel to um you know to live uh according these uh ancient principles.
25:34
Neri: I agree 100%.
25:35
Neri: Hold that thought, I'm gonna circle back to it uh in just a minute.
25:39
Neri: But uh in terms of what Smotrich has has been doing practically on the ground since uh early 2023, um you mentioned you know settlement construction, whether legalizing existing settlements or new outposts or these farms that take up acres and acres of land.
25:56
Neri: I don't know if they're really uh actually farms, they're just land grabs, really.
26:00
Neri: They have a little kind of homestead and they control everything they see around them, including Palestinian Palestinian villages.
26:07
Neri: Um so those numbers are are off the charts, uh, really kind of unprecedented, even going back just a few years, if not decades.
26:15
Neri: I mean, we haven't seen anything close to what we've seen over the past few years.
26:19
Neri: Um we've also seen Smolchish, and he doesn't make a secret of this either.
26:23
Neri: He's squeezing the Palestinian Authority territorially, but also financially, economically.
26:29
Neri: He's refusing to transfer um the tax transfers that Israel collects on the PA's behalf already for a number of years.
26:35
Neri: So the Palestinians themselves are warning of a of a real economic collapse.
26:39
Neri: Absolutely.
26:40
Neri: Um and then you have combined with all of this, uh let's say a loose hand by the government and other security organs and the legal authorities with regard to attacks by Jewish settlers against Palestinians.
26:56
Neri: So um you can call it Jewish terrorism, uh I would, uh, but the the words are less important than the fact that this is happening almost on a uh daily basis.
27:06
Neri: Um and by the way, we saw it after the incident in Tell and on Friday.
27:11
Neri: The natural reaction by the settlers was to go and attack Palestinian villages in the northern West Bank.
27:16
Michael: And to barn mosques.
27:17
Michael: You know, one of one of my deepest fears, Neri, is that we're getting very close to a kind of a religious conflict.
27:24
Michael: I mean, a conflict not only between two hostile peoples, but between between religions.
27:31
Michael: And we when we speak about banning mosques, and since the beginning of this year, eight mosques all over the West Bank were burned by settlers.
27:40
Michael: And we speak about um ongoing or or broader control of Israel on uh on Mealata Machpelah, I mean um, you know, the holy Jews.
27:51
Neri: Yeah, the cave of the patriarchs in Hebron in the southern West Bank.
27:55
Michael: And of course, a lot a very broad discourse about building once again Bethamikdash, I mean, you know, the uh Jewish temple.
28:03
Michael: And and Smotlij, by the way, even promised that he will he will um uh uh promote a kind of a unique budget regarding building Beth Amigdash, you know, building the temple.
28:16
Michael: So you you do understand that it's very sensitive and very dangerous.
28:24
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29:22
Neri: So, I mean, that's my that's my question to you, Michael, as as a professional in this field going back decades.
29:28
Neri: How concerned are you that these actions by Smotric and Itabar Benvir and really the Netanyahu government will actually lead to an explosion?
29:37
Neri: Uh, and uh a real explosion in the West Bank.
29:39
Michael: Yeah, I'm very much concerned.
29:42
Michael: And by the way, you know, we are not speaking only about an explosion in the West Bank.
29:46
Michael: I think that it can impact immediately on the situation among the Israeli Arabs, I mean the Israeli citizens here inside Israel.
29:55
Michael: And of course, there will be an influence on this really uh uh almost crazy situation on the relations between Israel and Arab states, mainly Jordan and Egypt.
30:10
Michael: And right now, you know, let's be let's be once again uh uh very clear.
30:14
Michael: Uh there is an ongoing uh crisis, even increasing crisis between Cairo, Amman, and and Jerusalem.
30:23
Michael: And of course, you can we you you will not be able really to speak about normalization with Saudi Arabia if you will uh continue uh your current behavior in the West Bank.
30:34
Michael: And of course, you know, there is another thing, and I think that most of the Israelis they they are they do not really aware of that, our image in the eyes of the of the world.
30:44
Michael: You know, uh the basic I I spoke with with several people and they are not anti-Zionists and they are not anti-Israelis, but they are asking me, do uh are you aware that you you are you uh gradually uh becomes a kind uh become a kind of a leper state?
31:03
Michael: You know, your basic image is an a pariah state, is an is a is uh is an image of an extremist, a radical, very religious state, of course, apartheid state, and I'm not sure you know that the Israelis are aware of the ongoing uh damage that is being caused to our our image in the in the eyes of our allies, not in the eyes of our enemies.
31:32
Neri: Yeah, I thought a lot about this uh since Friday, about the incident in Tal and also just the West Bank writ large.
31:38
Neri: And really, I mean, you know, you could make an argument, a justifiable argument, about the security needs of of uh military operations and certain policies, say in Gaza against Hamas, or in Lebanon against Hezbollah, or against the Islamic Republic in in Iran.
31:55
Neri: Uh but the West Bank, to my mind, uh it has no no, not only a logic, it has no explanation.
32:03
Neri: It has no real explanation other than land grab ideology.
32:07
Neri: Sure.
32:08
Neri: It's really frustrating speaking, as I'm sure you do, to to Israelis who a don't don't see it that way.
32:15
Neri: You hear this kind of idea that, well, the settlements, we don't we don't protect the settlements, the settlements protect us.
32:20
Neri: Sure.
32:21
Neri: And and people, not I don't even say like right wingers or settlers say that.
32:26
Neri: You hear it from normal Israelis.
32:28
Neri: It's like we have to have those people in the hilltops outside of Nablus because that protects Tel Aviv.
32:34
Neri: And I'm like, you know how many soldiers are protecting those outposts?
32:37
Neri: You know how much damage they're causing?
32:39
Neri: And every farm protects the other one.
32:41
Neri: And every farm protects the other one, so it's you know, it's it's endless.
32:44
Neri: Um, on top of the you know, the moral crimes that are perpetrated against uh the local Palestinians by the settlers.
32:52
Neri: So how do you how do you handle that um not only as an Israeli, but as an actual Palestinian affairs expert, right?
33:00
Neri: Um when you hear that kind of talk, again, from kind of middle of the road Israelis, not far-right Israelis, um, because it's true, like the average Israeli not only doesn't understand or know what's happening in the West Bank, it doesn't, he doesn't feel it at all.
33:15
Michael: No, no, and you know, uh it's really a very important uh point that you elaborated, uh Neri, you know, exactly as you said, the basic or the uh the real uh uh roots of uh this revolution or this project in the West Bank is an ideological one, a religious one.
33:35
Michael: You know, it's it's something amazing because of the fact that those who promote this project they do understand that this is their own vision.
33:44
Michael: It's not a collective vision of all Israel.
33:47
Michael: They create all kinds of tricks, all kinds of artificial uh explanations about about their project.
33:56
Michael: For example, as you mentioned, they say the farms, they protect Tel Aviv, don't forget it.
34:02
Michael: They say, for example, we learned a lot of important lessons from October the 7th, and one of them is that you have to take more and more and more lands from the Arabs, and uh only if you will take lands from the Arabs, territories from the Arabs, it will deter them.
34:21
Michael: And uh it was proved, this is another argument, that in every place that you will establish a settlement, there will be no terror over there.
34:30
Michael: And you know, come on, you know, I I argue a lot with people, with the people who represent this uh these uh uh uh insights or arguments.
34:40
Michael: I say, listen, please, you must explain to people that you want to promote these ideas because God told you, ordered you to do that.
34:51
Michael: This is because of religious considerations.
34:54
Michael: You cannot really cheat us and say, no, it's because of strategic, very complex uh uh ideas.
35:02
Michael: Because we want to conduct, we want to promote here in Israel a very kind, uh a very direct and clear discourse between people uh who has who have a lot of ideas regarding uh this uh this um uh project.
35:18
Michael: This is not a national project, but unfortunately you cannot do that because once again, exact if you, for example, I last week, immediately after the um the event of Til, I had several interviews uh in the local radio here and the and the television here in Israel.
35:35
Michael: And I uh, you know, of course I'm Zionist, yeah.
35:39
Michael: I uh I like my my people, but I said, listen, these are not ordinary events, we these are not you know classical terror uh attacks, it's much more complex.
35:50
Michael: And I was accused by uh, let's call them um several right-wing uh journalists that uh I affiliate with the enemy, that I like the enemy more than I like my own people.
36:04
Michael: And you know, it's really it's craziness, Neri.
36:08
Michael: You cannot really uh uh promote any kind of serious direct dialogue discourse here with not being accused uh uh uh by uh you know uh that you you you you you are uh a kind of an enemy or you uh there is a traitor, you you are involved in betrayal.
36:30
Michael: It's really I I think that I'm very much concerned, not only because of the activities, but also because of the discourse, because of the language itself that is being used by politicians and by journalists and by a lot of a lot of you know a lot of ordinary people here in Israel.
36:47
Neri: Yes.
36:48
Neri: Um the discourse seeps down.
36:51
Neri: So, like I said, you don't have to be a a far right winger here in Israel to believe, well, you know, the people living in the northern West Bank, the settlers, uh they are they are protecting me.
37:00
Neri: And uh the the other one that I'm sure you heard uh after last Friday is well, um it's the attorney general and the courts and the legal authorities that uh don't allow the settlers of the army to open fire in the West Bank.
37:14
Neri: And that's the reason why those Israelis were killed.
37:17
Neri: So they wrap up everything in the same war and conflict that they're they've already been fighting against the legal authorities, right?
37:23
Neri: As if the IDF or an Israeli soldier doesn't have the authority to open fire if he feels endangered.
37:29
Neri: That's right.
37:30
Neri: And this is this is my this is my big point to go back to to what happened last Friday.
37:34
Neri: It's it's almost like they were talking about this incident in a vacuum.
37:38
Neri: These Israelis went through this village and they were attacked by Palestinian quote unquote terrorists, or call them what you will, and this is this is what happened.
37:46
Michael: And don't argue with us.
37:48
Michael: I mean, one of the the the arguments, don't argue with us about uh the need or the basic uh uh capability to have tours, to have hikes all over the uh, you know, even if it's in a hostile village like Til.
38:04
Neri: Why?
38:04
Neri: Not only is it in a hostile village, but it's after years, and especially under this government, uh, like I said, on almost a weekly basis, where you have gangs, actual gangs, if not you can call them now militias, of radical extremist settlers, Jewish terrorists, who go and raid Palestinian villages, setting things on fire, attacking Palestinians, stealing livestock, sometimes shooting and killing Palestinians.
38:31
Neri: We've had that as well.
38:32
Neri: So you look at it, you're like, well, this is didn't this didn't come as like in in a vacuum.
38:37
Neri: Sure.
38:38
Neri: Right.
38:39
Neri: Um, that the Palestinians are are under attack.
38:42
Neri: Um, and there's you know, the IDF as the sovereign in the West Bank has a legal obligation to protect all the residents of this territory, and it oftentimes uh fails.
38:52
Neri: Um I I don't want you to get into the discussion about the IDF, but but that's also something you hear that uh, well, they were going for a hike through this Palestinian village.
39:00
Neri: It's like, well, you know, there are a lot of hikes and raids happening by settlers, and and um nobody talks about that.
39:07
Neri: But they don't believe, but but again, this is this is kind of the crux of the matter.
39:10
Neri: They do not believe that there is settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.
39:15
Neri: Yeah, sure.
39:16
Neri: They believe it's a they they believe it's a libel, slander.
39:18
Michael: And you know, Neri, if you will criticize this violence, you will be accused as uh a person that is being uh that affiliates with the enemy.
39:29
Michael: And you know, once again, can can we Quentin can we have a very uh you know polite uh uh uh organized uh discourse between us?
39:39
Michael: Uh of course, not all you know, I s my assessment is that most of the Israelis and most of the Israelis really do not know what is happening across the green line.
39:49
Michael: They are not affiliated and they do not support this uh the this project, this revolution.
39:55
Michael: And you know, if they will be ex if people, if leaders will explain them in a very clear manner, what is the meaning of one state?
40:04
Michael: I mean, regarding uh economy, uh security, society, international relations, most of the people here in Israel will say but one big no.
40:14
Michael: No, we do not want uh to be uh in a kind of a mix uh a mixed uh melted uh uh entity between us and the Arabs.
40:23
Michael: But unfortunately, right now, a very narrow, a very limited uh sector is imposing his own vision on all the all the uh people.
40:35
Michael: And I really hope that in the in the coming elections this will be a very uh central question uh regarding uh all the uh the parties.
40:46
Neri: Yeah, I don't know if the opposition parties really want to conduct a campaign on on the Palestinian issue because of uh well October 7th and I think they're yeah, I think they're they're running away from it um as fast as they can.
41:01
Neri: Although you do hear someone like Gaudi Isenkot actually level with the public.
41:06
Neri: And I'm sure you've heard just as just as I have, you know, he's saying in interviews, look, um, you know, he he does caveat by saying, you know, I've never said the words Palestinian state in my in my 66 years, uh because he, you know, for most of them, he was a senior officer in the IDF, so he wouldn't probably talk about uh a Palestinian state.
41:24
Neri: But he does say something important, which is telling the public the truth.
41:29
Neri: Um I am for separation, I'm against annexation, and bringing in 2.8 or 3 million Palestinians to live in one state would be a disaster for uh Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.
41:44
Neri: Essentially, you know, a disaster for the Zionist project.
41:46
Neri: And and that's that's kind of uh uh an indication of of his kind of forthrightness.
41:52
Neri: Uh, but the fact that it's rare uh means that not enough people are actually saying that and leveling with the Israeli public.
42:00
Michael: And that the public uh uh uh itself, I think, Neri, do not really demand from the candidates a very clear agenda regarding the the Palestinian uh issue.
42:11
Michael: You know, I think that maybe Smotlic and Yail Gulan, and of course the Arab uh the Arab uh parties in Israel, they are the only ones who really have a very clear agenda regarding the Palestinian issue.
42:24
Michael: All the rest, it's a kind of a hollow slogan about uh we will shrink or we will manage the conflict.
42:32
Michael: By the way, the same things that were elaborated, I mean the same slogans that were elaborated before October the 7th.
42:38
Michael: So, you know, I really think that exactly as you said, you need to speak with people, with people, uh, first of all, to tell them the truth, and second to speak with them with numbers, speak about details so they will understand what is three million uh Palestinians under Israeli control, what is the meaning of uh, you know, uh annexing territories uh in the West Bank.
43:02
Michael: And unfortunately, right now, slogans instead of and fantasies instead of realistic uh uh strategy.
43:09
Neri: Definitely fantasies.
43:11
Neri: Um before we look uh a little bit ahead, Michael.
43:14
Neri: Um I'm curious just in terms of brass tax, you wrote this week uh in Yadertachonot, uh major newspaper here, that uh the era of of miracles are is over.
43:26
Neri: Um and you were referring to to a comment by uh the the IDF general uh in charge of the West Bank, Avi Blut, who said uh that it's essentially a miracle that these uh hikes, quote unquote, or these raids by settlers into Palestinian villages hasn't ended with either kind of mass casualties or even a kidnapping.
43:47
Michael: Yeah, Israeli casualties a lot of Palestinians were killed during these hikes.
43:53
Neri: Yeah, so I'm curious whether you get a sense that the Palestinian side Is kind of nearing a breaking point, and that we may actually see the use of force, violence, like proper attacks against settlers, especially during these raids into the villages.
44:14
Michael: So I I do think uh or I do assess Nari that we are in um more sensitive situation.
44:22
Michael: I mean, you know, I'm not sure that the Palestinians will will uh start a kind of third intifada tomorrow, uh than something surprising out of the blue.
44:34
Michael: But I'm very much concerned um because of several threats or several challenges.
44:40
Michael: For example, I'm really afraid that uh you mentioned that before, the ongoing weakening of the of the PA, not giving the PA the uh uh uh tax payments that are being collected by Israel.
44:54
Michael: This will bring uh finally to the collapse of the of the PA.
44:59
Michael: Second, I'm really afraid of uh a scenario uh which will include clashes between IDF and the PA's security forces.
45:11
Michael: You know, they're accused by their own people today.
45:14
Michael: I mean the uh the uh Palestinian policemen and let's call them quasi soldiers, that actually they do not they do not do not uh they don't do nothing when they see uh um a very brutal uh offensives against against the Palestinians.
45:32
Michael: And you know, some of them they really feel uh, you know, of course, some of them do not need any any uh reasons in order to commit terror attacks, but uh it's something that encourages many of them or will encourage many of them to commit terror attacks against uh against uh Israel.
45:50
Michael: And third, you know, there is a new term, um, actually, it's a kind of an organization that was established during the last uh uh the last year.
46:00
Michael: It is called the local guards or the local committees all over the West Bank.
46:05
Michael: It's a kind of uh local initiatives uh Palestinians.
46:10
Michael: They are not really armed, they are armed by uh you know sticks and uh uh maybe knives, and they they um their aim, they consider that their aim is to protect the villages from uh settlers.
46:23
Michael: And you know, these initiatives can end really with dramatic uh uh results.
46:30
Michael: I mean, violent, really violent, bloody clashes between Palestinians and uh uh Israelis.
46:38
Michael: And I'm really afraid that you know we we both spoke about the vacuum and that it is being filled with with mainly negative players.
46:47
Michael: And I'm really afraid that uh, you know, we have uh uh almost 90 uh days until the elections.
46:55
Michael: Uh this time will be used by many radical extremist uh uh players in order to inflame the uh the uh situation in the West Bank.
47:05
Neri: Yes, uh our mutual friend Amos Harel, who's also uh a friend of the podcast, uh, wrote yesterday or at some point early this week that um he he is quite concerned that the government is actually seeking an escalation in the West Bank uh for its own purposes ahead of the October 27th election.
47:25
Michael: That's right.
47:26
Neri: That uh instead of kind of calming the situation and trying to maintain stability and keep people alive, that it's actually steering into the skid and um and wouldn't mind uh an escalation in the West Bank, especially, and this is this is my analysis: um, if Donald Trump doesn't allow BB to escalate in Gaza or Lebanon or against Iran, then what do you have left?
47:49
Neri: You have the West Bank.
47:50
Michael: Although, you know, Trump was very clear, and and J.D.
47:54
Michael: Vance and Rubio were even more clear uh toward the Israeli regarding the West Bank.
48:00
Michael: They said one big no, first of all, about annexation.
48:03
Michael: Don't speak it up with us about annexation.
48:06
Michael: So actually, Smotlic uh uh promotes a very tricky uh policy.
48:11
Michael: He annexed territories without annex announcing about annexation.
48:16
Michael: Yeah, and I'm quite sure that if if the world will see more and more and more violent clashes, most of them committed by Israelis against Palestinians, I think that you know it will it will not be only a kind of criticism or kind of you know public announcements, very bad one against Israel.
48:39
Michael: It can really lead to um a very problematic place, as you know, right now, the but not only the Palestinians, but also the Europeans that are speaking more and more about boycotts against Israel, isolation.
48:53
Michael: And um, you know, I I think that a lot of Western players will will consider these uh steps.
49:01
Neri: Because it's like I said earlier, right?
49:03
Neri: There's no there's no security justification for what's happening in the West Bank.
49:08
Neri: Absolutely.
49:09
Neri: There's nothing.
49:10
Neri: And and I think you mentioned this earlier, it the West Bank hasn't been this quiet in in years, if not decades, in terms of Palestinian violence against Israelis.
49:20
Neri: Um so uh, you know, even even friends of Israel that can possibly understand the need to uh say go to war in Gaza or Lebanon or Iran, again, you can quibble about how it was done in recent years, but the just the basic need to to to go and and fight there, um, what's your justification for what's happening in the West Bank?
49:42
Neri: There is no justification.
49:44
Neri: Michael, uh election day, um, let's all hope for the best and and for a change.
49:50
Neri: Um, but this is a question I get a lot, uh, especially in in you know recent weeks, as we head into the election, I'm sure you get asked the same question.
49:58
Neri: Okay, let's say the opposition wins, uh, whether Prime Minister Dadi Eisencott or Nafdali Bennett or whatever, but a a new government, a new coalition takes power.
50:08
Neri: Uh, what are the chances that this new government can reverse the negative trends uh of the last few years and work to stabilize the West Bank?
50:18
Neri: Um, and kind of a subset of that question, how difficult will it be to actually reverse what Smortich has done over the past three plus years?
50:26
Michael: Faithful uh fateful uh uh uh point, I think, uh Neri.
50:31
Michael: You know, first of all, I think that we both, and actually a lot of Israelis have a kind of a common interest that the Palestinian issue will be much more prominent in the uh local uh uh discourse, not only about yes baby, no baby, and uh you know the issue of the Kharedim and even the question of October the 7th, but also to speak about the future of us and the Palestinians.
50:57
Michael: What do you offer?
50:59
Michael: So I really hope that more and more candidates will speak about agenda and that more and more um voters will decide uh who to vote uh according to the answers and the agenda.
51:14
Michael: Regarding the this scenario of uh you know you know new government, uh, and you know, a new government with uh with um a new agenda, of course, a new policy, and new members in the coalition, I must say in a very frank manner that I'm full of fears.
51:33
Michael: I'm really concerned about it because you know you here already know the uh language, the political language and the discourse of uh several people in the coalition who speak about uh this scenario and who warn from a scenario that Yair Golan will be maybe the Minister for Internal Affairs and he will order to evacuate farms in the uh in the West Bank.
52:00
Michael: I mean, not all the 140 farms, but maybe one or two.
52:05
Michael: And they already speak about uh non-compliance.
52:10
Michael: And they are already promoting a kind of delegitimization of the future uh government, of the decisions of the future government.
52:19
Michael: So, you know, I assess that if there will be a kind of a new government, not based on the on the religious Zionism and Bang Ver's party, or and of course not on the Likud, um I assess that they will try to promote a kind of a new new agenda according their own legitimacy because of the the uh results of the elections.
52:40
Michael: I do feel I'm really afraid that it will be full of obstacles.
52:46
Michael: And I really hope, and you know, in my interviews in the Israeli media, I call all the sides to use softer language.
52:55
Michael: You cannot really speak about the legitimization of candidates of, for example, uh the Democrats of Yael Golan, calling them fascists, and uh, you know, not thinking that maybe in the day after you will have to accept the you know the voters' uh uh decision and to uh consider their own uh uh moves as legitimate.
53:21
Michael: And and you know, I I'm I'm really afraid of that.
53:24
Michael: And that's you know, 90 days before the elections.
53:28
Michael: So um, you know, I I I really hope that the the Israeli public will be more mature and more and that the Israeli politicians will be more responsible regarding the once again the political language.
53:42
Michael: The times are very sensitive, and you need only one spark in order to uh inflame the whole the whole uh land.
53:50
Michael: And I really hope it will not uh happen.
53:53
Neri: Yeah, uh me too.
53:55
Neri: And uh I think I have more hope in the Israeli public than I do with the Israeli politicians.
53:59
Neri: Um Me too.
54:00
Neri: You know, but uh let's hope for the best.
54:03
Neri: Uh and it sounds just from your answer, Michael, that you do you do think that a a new government, however it's constructed, um may go and and actually attempt to reverse a lot of what we've seen in in recent years.
54:18
Neri: Yeah.
54:18
Neri: Um maybe not maybe not taking down all 140 farms, but trying to reverse a lot of the bureaucratic you know changes that Smotrich instituted, maybe the relationship with the Palestinian authority.
54:30
Michael: Exactly.
54:30
Michael: Start it start negotiating with the Palestinians, by the way.
54:34
Michael: If we will start negotiating, I'm not speaking about the establishment of Palestinian state.
54:39
Michael: Only start talking with the Palestinians.
54:42
Michael: I'm quite sure, or this is my assessment, that it will be enough in order to speak with the Saudis about normalization.
54:50
Michael: And uh, once again, I'm not speaking about a kind of a radical shift.
54:55
Michael: Uh, you know, immediately a day after the elections, uh, we will speak with the Palestinians about the state and uh, but it seems that even if there will be a kind of very limited steps, like for example, evacuating one or two or three or ten farms, it will be enough to create or to to uh promote a very uh tough events here in Israel.
55:20
Neri: That is definitely a fear.
55:22
Neri: Um and also if you let's put it this way, if you have uh a new government, let's say Yale Golan of the left-wing the Democrats Party becomes, which it may be likely, the the Minister for Internal Security.
55:35
Neri: What Ben Gv is now, the he calls it national security minister.
55:39
Michael: This is this is the uh you know the ministry he wants.
55:43
Michael: I mean Yale Golan.
55:44
Neri: Yeah, yeah.
55:44
Neri: Which which let's all hope he gets it because it's responsible for the police.
55:48
Neri: And it's also responsible for upholding law and order in the West Bank.
55:52
Neri: So maybe uh under a new government and a new minister of whatever national security, internal security, uh, that you actually see law and order at least return or be implemented in the West Bank.
56:06
Neri: Um, I think that would also be a a very positive change and not to let settlers just run amok and um attack Palestinian villages.
56:14
Michael: Of course.
56:15
Neri: Um Michael, uh, thank you so much for your time.
56:19
Neri: Uh I really wanted you on to talk about this very important topic, which uh, like I said at the top, doesn't get nearly as much attention with uh with everything else that's been happening over the past three years.
56:30
Neri: But um both in terms of I think the Palestinians in the West Bank, also inter-Israeli, intra-Israeli uh societal dynamics and Israel's kind of standing uh in the world, I think the West Bank um could make or break a lot of these issues.
56:48
Neri: So um thank you very much for for breaking it all down for us.
56:51
Michael: Thank you, Nilly.
56:52
Michael: Thank you for having me once again.
56:54
Neri: Okay, thanks again to Michael Milstein for his generous time and insights.
56:58
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57:04
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57:14
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57:16
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