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COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 5 RECAP · Mike Check - A College Football Podcast

• Jackson: Hello everyone, welcome back. My name's Jackson, that's Davis. This is the Mic Check Podcast. What's up? Davis: How's it going? Jackson: going. Maybe a little distracted this episode. I'm got the Yankees right here and not looking good. Not looking good right now, but long game, so we'll see. But yeah, football wise Davis: And I've got the Falcons right here and that's looking that's looking pretty good. Jackson: Yeah, they were winning last I checked I haven't been watching it but Davis: Yeah, it's twenty four seven right before half. Maybe maybe we can pull it up. Jackson: My NFL season's kinda out the window. Bucks are owing four. I'm not gonna call for another man's job, but I think it would be better if we were led by a different human being. But we'll leave it at that. Davis: Yeah, last week you said you wanted Buster Faulkner. Does that still stand? Jackson: Maybe not. Maybe not. I will Davis: Yeah. Jackson: take I will take Trinidad Chambliss or Jeremiah Smith. So that's kind of what I'm looking forward to for next year. Maybe we'll have the number one pick. Davis: Yeah, there's a bigger silver lining in losing this year 'cause that the class is so stacked at the top. Jackson: The giraffe class is gonna be insane next year. Davis: I know, I'm honestly hoping the Falcons lose. I'm not a Penix believer, so I'm hoping we get a a top quarterback. Jackson: The problem the problem with the NFL is like if you're not gonna win, like it's it's hard being on that like just barely making the playoffs line, 'cause then you don't get a good draft pick, but it's just a repeatable Davis: yeah. Jackson: cycle. Kinda like what the Steelers have done. And honestly the Bucks were Davis: Yeah. Jackson: since Brady left, but Davis: Yeah. Well I mean the Falcons have been like seven and ten the last five years, so we're right outside the like top seven and we just Yeah. Okay. Let's get into some college football. Jackson: Yeah. That's true. Yeah, we got we got a lot to cover today. So I guess we'll start with like winners and losers, recap of the games, then we'll get back into the the storylines that we did to begin the season. We'll kinda revisit that a little bit. So All right. Winners and losers. You wanna you wanna kick it off and go first? Davis: Yeah. big winner is Missouri. Huge season defining win against Florida. We'll get into that. But they jumped up eleven spots to number fourteen. very impressive win. Jackson: All right. My first winner was Northwestern. Opened the new stadium. A lot of hype surrounding the program this weekend. Penn State coming in town. I know Penn State's not exactly like who we thought they were or who they used to be, but still. You just kinda blow the brakes off of get a big win at home. Northwestern might be legit. You know, they played Indiana close last week and everyone Davis: Yeah. Jackson: thought that may have been just a sleepy fluke from Indiana. Maybe they weren't didn't have their full attention towards Northwestern, but yeah Aiden Charles is playing good football and they're showing that they meet like may be like a legitimate team in the Big Ten. maybe not a contender but Yeah, they can. Davis: They can run the ball. They rushed for over four hundred yards. Jackson: Yeah, they can. So Northwestern is Davis: I they br Jackson: is showing up this year. Davis: Yeah, they brought back the the winged tee a little bit too. It was a a fun sight to see. Tip Kelly. Jackson: Yeah. I did it well. I did it well. Chip Kelly with all his bags of tricks. So but yeah, they're Davis: Yeah. Jackson: they're moving in the right direction for sure. Davis: Okay. my loser, James Franklin, this was a game that that felt oddly similar to what has plagued James Franklin in the past at Penn State. You know, losing a a big game that you kinda had in your grasp. They were up fourteen nothing against Pitt with less than five minutes to go against a backup quarterback and ended up blowing that lead. losing the game on a last second field goal that was I'll call it declared missed. I'm not sure if it was actually missed. Did you see that? Jackson: I did, yeah. I was watching it live and I was verbally said like, shoot, did he make that? Like I couldn't tell. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I mean I c I can't argue one way or another and I don't think there was like usually with stuff like that, you see it on Twitter. If the Davis: Mm-hmm. Jackson: if the refs got it wrong and like there were some clips here and there, but I think from a certain angle. Davis: Nothing definitive. Jackson: Yeah, nothing definitive. So it is Davis: My my stance on this is if you're a kicker and you kick it that far above the uprights and it's not a given, it should just be a default miss. Like you mi you missed your mark and like I'm gonna err on the side of a miss if it's if it's in that like if it's a close close miss or not. Especially Jackson: Yeah. I agree. Davis: with the fact that If it was that close it probably would have hit the uprights anyways, if the uprights extended up more. And at that point you probably have a greater chance that it bounces off than bounces in. Jackson: If it's not conclusive, it should be a miss. I agree. Davis: Exactly. Jackson: All right. Little a little mix up here in the a little mix up here in the graphic. My my first loser is actually Shane Beamer, not Baylor. South Carolina again, another blown lead to Kentucky. They had him on the ropes. I don't know exactly how much they were up in the game, but they did it a few weeks before to Mississippi State. They do it again now at home to Kentucky. you know, with the Dylan Seward drama, there's just a lot going on in that program right now and Things are just trending downwards to me for South Carolina and Shane Beamer. So coaching hot Davis: Yeah. Jackson: seats may be something we'll talk about in the next few weeks. I feel like it's about that time. Davis: We're gonna talk about it in this episode. Jackson: yeah, we are. That's right. That's right. It's one of our I forgot it's one of our storylines. But yeah. It's about that time for for the hot seats to start getting hot. So like you said, we'll cover that in a second. Davis: Yeah. for my next winner, I had Will Stein huge win over South Carolina. They were down seventeen points, rallied back, and then went for two in overtime to win it. Kentucky's looking looking dangerous. you know, team that can it's a team that you don't wanna have on your schedule. Jackson: Yeah. I definitely think they're in that upper Davis: Kentucky's offense sorry. Jackson: tier of the bottom tier teams in the SEC, if that makes any sense. Like you have the top tier, Davis: Yeah, very well put. Jackson: the middle tier, and then like the bottom ish tier, and they're definitely the best of the bottom ish tier. So Davis: Yeah. I mean they're ranked. They're ranked. so Jackson: No, they're not ranked anymore. They dropped out. They dropped out of the rankings. Davis: they did. Yeah. Crazy. So I was looking up through Jackson: For when I don't know, it doesn't make any sense, but Davis: Yeah, AP poll doesn't matter really, but Kentucky's offense averaging thirty two points per game, three hundred and ninety four yards per game, which I know it's we're not even midway through the season yet, but that would be highs in both those categories since twenty twenty one, which they went ten and three in twenty one. So He's got that offense rolling right now. Jackson: Yeah, it seems to be the way to go in modern day college football. Having that high powered explosive offense seems to be the way to roll, I guess, nowadays. Where I feel like it used to be the defense. Now I think things are transitioning to the high powered explosive offense. all right. My f next winner. Again, graphic is a little backwards here. My next winner is Baylor. I didn't stay up to watch the game, but looking at the stats, Baylor just absolutely dismantled Arizona State on the road Saturday night. So speaking of the hot seat, that is another team, another coach in Dave Viranda that we talked about earlier in the season that we may be mentioning around this point in the in the year. So, you know, that doesn't seem to be the case. I mean, they just blew the bricks off Arizona State. Good for Baylor, good for Dave Aranda. DJ Lagway seems to be kind of taking the next step. in that Baylor offense, so they're my next winner of the weekend. Davis: Yeah, I think DJ Lagway had five touchdowns. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, they smoked them. Davis: Yeah, if there's any silver lining to the way that Auburn's played this year, I guess we got a a win against Baylor, who I guess maybe is a little better than I thought originally. All right, my next loser, Florida. specifically their playoff chances. I just said that the AP poll doesn't really matter, but worth noting, they fail eight spots to number sixteen. so looked at the odds before and after this game, before the the loss to Missouri. They were minus 140 to make the playoffs, so about a 58% chance. And I know that varies depending on what site you look at. That number has dropped to as low as plus one eighty-five or about thirty-five percent. So big drop in the playoff odds. Schedule doesn't get any easier. You got South Carolina this week, but then you go to Texas, then Georgia. So that was a much needed win or much needed game that you had to win and you couldn't get it done. And you looked ugly doing it. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, we'll get into that in a second, but it seems like someone finally found a little bit of an answer for the run run game in Florida. So all right. My next loser is UConn. I know it's kind of a random loser, but I found myself watching the end of that game on Saturday and d they were up they should have won it the interregulation, but they win it overtime. They're, you know, seven plus point underdogs in the game. They've beaten like two power four teams in the last Yeah, X amount of years. I they're like two and forty against Power Force schools. They were up seven in overtime. They had fourth and twenty. They're already up, so all they had to do was get a stop. They win the game. Fourth in the goal from the twenty. And they score. The other team scores. They win on a two-point conversion, successful attempt. So sucks to be UConn. I don't know why I was watching the game, but it was on one of the quad boxes and I was interested. So heartbreaking loss for for for UConn in that one. Davis: That's that's why you listen to the Mic Check podcast, you know, for for UConn breakdowns. Who are they playing? Jackson: I can't even think of it. Boston College? Davis: We'll cut that. Jackson: All right. First pick six game recap. Bama, fifty-six, Mississippi State twenty-three. Bama's offense got going and it could just I mean, nobody could stop it. Keelan Russell is the real deal. I've said that before. Davis: Mm-hmm. Jackson: someone no, no, I can't even think of the Someone made an analogy on Twitter. I can't even remember what he said, but something along the lines of Keelan Russell started the season against East Carolina as a baby in diapers, and now he's an old sophisticated man reading the newspaper. Like he has just grown so much from the beginning of the season to now. He's efficient passing the ball. His deep balls are insanely accurate. He's running the ball well. Bama puts up fifty six points. It's the most points they've ever scored. on the road against a ranked team. so definitely something to be said for that. Mississipp State didn't have a great game. You know, they had the pick six early in the game. Turn over a Davis: Had a lot of fumbles too. Just Jackson: lot of fumbles. The first quarter was ugly really from both sides or second quarter. But Davis: Mm-hmm. Jackson: they kind of shot themselves in the foot too much. And like we said on the podcast for for the preview last week, getting in a whole against Bama is not gonna be like getting in a hole against who was it, South Carolina when they came all the way back. So and Davis: Yeah. Yeah. Jackson: they did they turned the ball over, they got down earlier and they just couldn't couldn't ever recover. Davis: Yeah, they they really had to change their offense. After they got down, they you know, not only could they not run the ball, but they elected to not run the ball 'cause they were down so much. So that was another thing. I know that one of our things to look out for was the explosive play rate between the two teams. Both teams gave up a lot of explosive plays. Both offenses had a lot of explosive play explosive plays going into this game. in this game, Alabama had a twelve percent explosive play rate, Mississippi State had a four percent. So Bama was able to limit it and they were able to really do whatever they wanted to on offense. Jackson: Yeah. Another thing that we mentioned b before on the preview show was the the status of Fluff Bothwell. Like we all we both kinda said like, you know, he's banged up. I know the injury report said he was probable to play, but what'd he play? Three plays, one drive or something, and he came out, so it's another reason why you listen to the Mike Jake podcast. Yeah, we know our stuff over here. Some of these ESPN guys, they they're stat sheet, you know, readers and yeah, we we watch we watch the game, so Watch the pod. But anyways, that's all I got. Bama, Georgia coming up this week. It'll be an exciting game. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. Jackson: Next game. Ohio State 31. Iowa 14. This was another this was an Iowa game. I mean, it was gross. It was not super exciting to watch. Jeremiah Smith, once again, had himself a pretty good day. Catching the ball. Davis: Best player in college football. Jackson: He is. Yeah, he he's that guy's unreal. when you have a defense like Iowa's that we've said all along is not like as strong as they once were. I mean you allow three twenty four in the air, one sixty on the ground, like that's not your vintage Iowa defense numbers. So I feel like this game was kind of good. Davis: Yeah. And and we and we pointed out that I was numbers might be a little inflated and that we didn't think that their passing defense was as good as, you know, just what the stats say, especially given the fact that Bryce Underwood was able to move the ball. Ohio State barely threw the ball in the second half and still put up three hundred and twenty four yards. This is just a game Jackson: Yeah. Davis: where, you know, it was a great offense versus a team that we knew wasn't gonna be able to score more than twenty one points. So Jackson: It's one of games Davis: Yeah. Jackson: that like the scoreboard may not read as if it was just a blowout, but I don't think Ohio State really ever lost control of this game in the second half at all. Or even like after the second quarter or first quarter. Like they Davis: Yeah. Jackson: always seem to be in control. So just a boring game. Boring game, but Ohio State gets it done on the road. You know, it's not easy going on the road. in the Big Ten against the number fourteen team in the country. get it done another week, another win for Ohio State. All right, the game we talked about earlier, Florida seventeen, Missouri forty-five. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Forty two rushing yards from Florida. Wow, I didn't even know it was that bad. I mean I knew it was bad. I didn't know it was that bad. Davis: Dude, Jaden Jaden Baugh had 13 yards on twelve carries. I just like I just didn't see that coming. I knew that Florida's defense was suspect. I mean, they gave up 39 points to Auburn and Auburn's offense is terrible. But I just did not see Florida scoring seventeen points. Did not see them not being able to run the ball. That it was this was Jackson: Yeah, I don't either. Davis: shocking. Jackson: Not like this at least. I mean not forty two yards. I figured they'd Davis: Yeah. Jackson: at least get to a hundred. I it's their it's their strong suit, so Davis: Yeah. Missouri was able to do whatever they wanted whenever they r wanted, had five hundred and sixty yards, two hundred and twenty rushing yards. Austin Simmons put up three forty and two touchdowns. Caden Lee had a hundred and ten receiving yards. It was just just a beat down from from the really from the start. I mean first quarter was was low scoring, but after that it was it was Missouri's Game in hand. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, they got after him from the start and they didn't take the foot off the gas, so I don't Davis: Yeah. So w one thing that I always like to reference is that EPA per play and per rush. I Florida, one of the better rushing teams, doesn't take a expert to to know that, you know. They had a first percentile EPA per rush. So absolutely Jackson: Wow. Davis: brutal. Wasn't able to do anything. Didn't even have any turnovers. Jackson: It'll be interesting to see if like i if th is this like a legit showing from Missouri? Or is this just did Florida just have a kind of a dud game? It's just one of those you gotta flush it and move on. So I kinda don't really know what to do with Davis: I don't know what to do with it either. You even asked me, is i is this a letdown spot? And I said no. run game travels. It didn't. Jackson: Yeah, it does. I mean, it usually does. It's crazy. So all right. Another one. Miami forty one, Clemson thirteen. Talked about it in the Davis: Yeah. Jackson: preview show. If Dabo's team didn't show up for this one, it's kind of like it's kind of the same story every year. Like the offense isn't evolving. The defense isn't as good as it once was, so they're not able to carry them. And like it Clemson's just gonna be a middle tier team that's gonna beat some of the middle pack teams and lose to really good teams. And lose to some other middle tier teams. Like they're just so middle of the pack in the ACC, which is not a very strong conference. It's like, you know, they've fallen so far from where they once were with Dabo. So Davis: Yeah. This was one that I mean, Clemson actually kinda was able to move the ball, just couldn't take advantage in the red zone. And they put up three hundred and fifty yards, but didn't matter. Miami didn't really ask much of Darien Mensah today, you know, efficient as ever, but kinda just controlled the clock after the second half and put it away late. But Miami moves to five and and three and in the ACC and it feels like it feels like no one's even close to touching them in that conference. Jackson: Yeah, I don't have anything else from this game. Not not really much to add. You got anything else? Davis: Yeah, no, I'm good. Jackson: All right. Washington twenty one. USC twenty five. Washington County Davis: Yeah, Washington led this game twenty one to ten in the second half until USC scored fifteen unanswered. Jackson: This is another just kind of ugly game to watch. Like did you see the touchdown that Washington scored to make it twenty one ten? Like Davis: Yeah. Jackson: the guy caught a pass on the sideline and just kinda jogged up the sideline and USC just didn't even touch him. Like there were guys Davis: Mm-hmm. Jackson: there to either tackle him and push him out of bounds. They just just kind of tapped him and figured he'd go out, but he didn't. So kind of lazy for from USC. and obviously Washington with the turnovers late in the game kinda That kinda flipped the whole script. had a chance late to win it, to drive and and take the lead, but didn't get it done. Neither of these teams I don't think are very good. Davis: Yeah, I don't know whether that Washington offense so they weren't they weren't having a great season to begin with coming into the game. We said is it is it potentially a get right game for them? It obviously wasn't, only put up twenty one points. I don't know whether to give credit to USC's defense for finally, you know, playing well or is this just another example of Washington's offense continue to struggle? Jackson: Yeah. And I don't I don't have a good read on on what the answer to that question would be. Like yeah, Davis: Probably a little bit of both. Jackson: probably a little bit of both. I mean, they were saying on the broadcast that Gary Patterson kind of you know had a big team meeting, talked to his defense, kind of told that if we're gonna I'm paraphrasing here, but if we're gonna take the next step, we have to be the ones to step up. So maybe a little bit of like a a refocused adjustment if you're USC. I don't know how much that really does, but Washington's offense, like you said, hasn't been all that great this season either. So yeah. Davis: Definitely hurts when you're one of twelve on third down. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah and and Davis: That that was really the the key to the game right there. That's the difference. Jackson: Right. Yeah. Yeah, and how about USC's punter, dude? That guy was that guy was on a roll. I mean, I think he downed him twice at the one. It's pretty impressive. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Had to shot him out there. Anything else from this one? Davis: Well, I'm good to move on. Jackson: All right. Auburn fourteen. Tennessee twenty four. God. Davis: I'm good to move on. Jackson: Dude, I I ke I feel like I'm saying this over and over again, but this was another just kind of ugly game. Like it was not fun to watch as a neutral viewer who doesn't like either team. Like, at least give me some action. Like at least give me something to watch. But Davis: Yeah, I'll just quickly hit it. I don't wanna talk through it too much or I'll just end up getting pissed off again. Auburn didn't have a first down until the second quarter. Three straight, three and outs. Faison Brandon, Tennessee's quarterback, was finished the half with zero passing yards. So that tells you exactly what Yeah. Jackson: Did he really? Wow. Davis: Zero passing yards, he gets benched, George McIntyre comes in, plays pretty well. They're pretty pretty decent compared Jackson: Good enough. Davis: to Faison Brandon and Auburn just doesn't have enough offense to to move the ball. They had chances and it's just a ugly, ugly, ugly game. Jackson: All right, some other notable games around the league this weekend. you wanna which ones you wanna touch on? Davis: Yeah, I guess we can quickly go through a couple of Georgia won thirty eight fourteen. It was actually kinda close at half. It was only twenty one fourteen. I don't know if Georgia just Took lightly or what, but Georgia really hadn't Jackson: Got Bima next week. Davis: been tested. They have Alabama this week. They'll need to start better than they did against Vanderbilt, that's for sure. Jackson: Yeah. Baylor, we touched on Baylor, T C U, BYU, rainy game that was the close kinda all night and then you know, BYU just got up late and and T C U couldn't move the ball. So Davis: Texas Tech, Colorado. Colorado was actually up seven three at half and outgained Texas Tech. They had some terrible turnovers and four interceptions and allowed Texas Tech to score twenty-six unanswered to win that game. But Texas Tech's offense just continues to look atrocious. And we covered it a couple of weeks ago about the panic meter and had it as moderate. We accepted that th they haven't looked good, but knew that the schedule was easy enough that it would be fine. The offense continues to look worse and they're gonna slip up at some point. I don't know who they play this upcoming week, but Colorado, I mean, take away the turnovers and Colorado wins that game. They they're gonna slip up at some point. Jackson: Yeah, I agree. It's coming. They're they're walking the line a little too close, to keep sneaking away with winds. Davis: Yeah. Florida State, huge win over Virginia. Did not see that coming. Ashton Daniels rushed for five touchdowns. Big game for him. we covered Kentucky, South Carolina, kinda went over Pitt, Virginia Tech. huge win from Northwestern over Penn State. That was fun to see. Boise State continues to look like the best Jackson: Mm. Davis: group of six team. Iowa State, West Virginia combined for eighty-seven points and over a thousand yards. this was a fun one that went back and forth. Iowa State ended up pulling it out. and then there's that overtime game from the U UConn Syracuse. Yeah. Jackson: Syracuse. Yeah, that's it was. Davis: And then Bryce Underwood reverts to Bryce Underwood that we know and love and couldn't move the ball at all and Minnesota gets the win. Jackson: Yeah, I I didn't catch much at the Michigan game, but from what I saw on Twitter and what I've heard just through the grapevine, they're gonna have to move on from him. You know, the definition of insanity is doing something over and over again and expecting a different result, like expecting something to change. And to me for Michigan you have to go in a different direction. I I don't know what their quarterback depth looks like, but it's obviously not working with Bryce Underwood, so and like I said I think Davis: Yeah. So week one after week one we had the overreactions versus fair take and one of my takes was essentially the Bryce Underwood experiment is over. That was after week one. that was when Will subbed in for you. But I think Will gave that as the as an overreaction. I standed firm on that from the beginning. continues to to look more and more right. Jackson: Yeah. All right. Had a good had a better week this week. Davis: Yeah, two pretty good weeks. Jackson: All right, so graphics a little messed up here. Davis did go four and two, and this Tennessee is red. For some reason it should be green, but Davis: Yeah. I didn't even realize that, but yeah, thanks for calling that out. Yeah. Jackson: You're welcome. So four and two week, I am above five hundred on the year and you're right there with me, close. So things are things are looking up. We're we're getting we're getting better here. Thanks. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. We each had a brutal what, week one or week two. I think I went one in five, so I'm just trying to recover from week one or whatever week that was. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, there was a week or two where we both just kind of did not perform well. But it's it's all up from here. So we kinda covered everything, so I don't think we need to run through it. Just, you know, missed on Davis: Yeah. Jackson: wait. Davis: Dude, I got the Miami one right too. Jackson: Yeah, and I got yeah, and I got it wrong and I got the Iowa wrong. Or I got yeah, I got the I had Ohio State here. Davis: Yeah, I I got I got Florida wrong and I got US C wrong. And then I got Miami right and I got Tennessee right. So four and two is correct, but the the greens and reds are Jackson: Greens and reds are are a little off here, but yeah, the four and two is correct. We'll move on before I get a headache trying to figure Davis: Yeah. Gali. Jackson: out what's going on with this graphic. All right. Plays of the week, I go two and one. Davis, he went one and two. I'll I'll just briefly cover my one loss, Louisville minus three. I don't know what the heck to think of the ACC. Like, dude, who is the second best team in the ACC? I mean, maybe SMU, but Louisville beat SMU. Like NC State, we've shown is garbage. Davis: Yeah. I mean pits look good and then now they're saying that that Heitzel has a torn ACL, so that probably takes them out. Jackson: Yeah, they did not look the same with their with their backup in. I mean, it wasn't like a steep, steep drop off, but he's definitely a big part of why they're five and I think. so Davis: Yeah, I I mean Heitzel is is one of the better quarterbacks in that league. He's Jackson: Yeah, no, I agree. Davis: Yeah. had UCF plus twelve and a half. I think UCF was was up seventeen nothing at halftime. Looked real good and then almost almost blew it. Houston scored twenty-four unanswered or something crazy. And then UMass got blown out. I I don't even I don't even know what happened there. And then Guess I should have Jackson: I tried to tell you. Davis: guess I should have taken the under of the of the Service Academy game. I had all this Jackson: Dude, it's it's it's a vibes thing. The troops know how to defend. Davis: this information to back me up and it didn't didn't matter. Jackson: The troops know how to defend their turf, I'm telling you. You cannot take a Service Academy over, Davis. It's just not right. But I warned you. But anyways, not not terrible. Davis: You didn't. Jackson: Overall with the pick six, we both had a pretty solid week, so hope Davis: Yeah. Jackson: to hope to keep the hot streak up moving forward. Davis: Yeah. And then for my upset pick I had the UFC or not UFC, UCF double down on it. I thought I thought I was gonna get another outright win here and UCF just blew it. Still got the cover, still got the play of the week cover, so I'll I'll I guess I'll take it. Jackson: Yeah, I did not sniff anything close with Arkansas. A and came out and they were angry and looking to make a statement against a bad team, so that was a miss. Davis: So did any of these teams win outright? I don't think we would have had a Jackson: Well. Davis: yeah, I don't think we would have had an opportunity to get upset. Jackson: No yeah, Purdue Purdue did beat Illinois. Purdue won. Davis: you're right. Yeah. Jackson: There's always one on the board. It is kinda crazy though that there has been one even if we did not pick it, but there has been one on this board that has one. So kinda wild. It's out there. We just gotta just gotta find it. Davis: Yeah. All right. So in our very first episode of the podcast, all the way back in August, we took a stab at ranking the storylines, the potential storylines of the college football season. So we have this this graph here, and we have ten different storylines that we went through, and we ranked them by how likely each storyline was to occur and the impact that it would have if it did occur. And so we can y'all can go back and look at it look at that episode, but this is how we ranked them all. And then today we're gonna go and try to see how we did, give updates, and you know, define where we would put them now and just talk through you know, what we've learned so far through five weeks of the college football season. Jackson: Yeah. So the numbers, just to be clear, the numbers next to the like little graphics don't that's not a ranking, that's just they're all just numbered one to ten. So Davis: Yeah. Yeah. So on the X axis we have likelihood to occur and we have it ranked as very unlikely, possible, projected a lock. On the Y axis, we have season impact, we have minor impact, and then going up, we have moderate impact, playoff impact, and season defining. You think we set the stage well enough and you want to get into the first storyline? Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, let's do it. Davis: Okay. So the first storyline is the top NFL prospects cement their status. And it was specifically regarding the quarterbacks. And so when we talked about this in August, those quarterbacks were Arch Manning, Dante Moore, CJ Carr, and Lenore Sellers. And those were the top four quarterbacks in terms of number one overall, number one overall odds. Arch Manning was plus 250, Dante Moore plus 380. CJ Car plus six fifty. I think that the way that we evaluated it was it had a huge impact on the season because Arch Manning, Dante Moore, and CJ Carr came from the presumptive title contenders. however, we didn't say that it was very likely to occur. We had it in the possible tier. And really that came down to the fact that every year We kinda every offseason we kinda hype up these quarterbacks and then some work out, some don't, some return. And we provided evidence from the past year, this time last year, where the number one overall favorites were like Drew Aller and and Garrett Nussmeiler and that whole that whole group. Yeah. Jackson: The North dollars. Yeah. Davis: So as we've gone on through the season, I would say that these quarterbacks have not cemented their status. Jackson: I I don't think so either. I think especially from I think you had so much push from you know it's Arch Manning, Arch Manning. It's finally his year to be draft eligible, like you f finally gonna get another Manning in the NFL. I just feel like Texas's identity is kind of more of a defensive team. And I don't know if that comes from his like lack of talent or if they just haven't played anyone To where like he's really gotta get out there and spin it and and take over the game. But maybe that's because of his defense, because their defense is so dang good. But the one game against Ohio State, he did turn it up in the second half. To me, a lot of it with Arch, in situations like that, it kind of turns into like almost backyard football where he's kind of running around out there and just making plays, which works, but if you're gonna be an NFL quarterback, you need to be able to drop back, sit in a pocket, make your read and deliver the ball. So all that to say, I think I don't know, I don't think he's cemented his status as a number one pick. who is who are some of the other quarterbacks? Darien Minsa? Davis: So before the season, Darien Minsa actually had the six highest odds. He has moved up to the number to the fifth highest odds. Jeremiah Smith now sits as the odds on favorite to to go number one. behind him, Arch Manning, surprising enough. He dropped from plus two fifty to plus four twenty. And then it's followed by CJ Carr, Drew Mestemaker, Darien Minsa, Trinidad Chambless, Dante Moore. going from the second favorite to the seventh. So a lot of a lot of movement, but the the big mover is Jeremiah Smith going from from behind the quarterbacks to number one. And and it it seems to happen every year. You you hype up all these quarterbacks all offseason and then y just a lot of these don't live up to the hype that that you're expecting. And someone unforeseen usually breaks out. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, no, I agree. And I think some of these teams like it's still I know after this week we'll be halfway through the season, which is kind of crazy to think about. But to me a lot of these first round picks and number one overall guys are kind of their moment may have hasn't come yet. Like I don't know, maybe Arch leads a big drive against someone or has a good playoff run and We see kind of late season arts like we did last year. So to me it's still early in the season. there's still a lot more to find out. But yeah, like you said, we do it every year. We think we know exactly who the guys are and then it everything seems to change once the games start getting played. So what do you think? You think we Davis: Yeah. All right. Jackson: had it right on the on the board? Davis: Yeah, I think we had it pretty I think we had it pretty good here. we didn't think it was very likely, and we thought it was season defining. And I would still say that it's season defining given those teams are still, you know, the contenders. so I think we nailed that one. The next one the Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, I agree. Davis: next one is the G five to P4 coaching wave proves to be a massive success. So just lay the ground, that includes John Sumraw, Florida, Alex Golish, Auburn, Ryan Silverfield, Arkansas, Eric Morris, Oklahoma State, and Bob Chesney at UCLA. And so we said that, let me try to find it. It was also in the possible likelihood of to occur, but we had it very low in terms of impact. Jackson: I'm changing this. I'm not gonna move it on the board, but if I could I think if I could change it I would put it closer to like playoff impact. Like, you know, but using delay's the real deal. Davis: Yeah. I I think we definitely underestimated just how quickly I know Florida's coming off of a loss, but just how quickly some of these Jackson: Still. Davis: coaches could have an impact. I mean, UCLA's looking legit under Bob Chesney. They're four and And then you all you also have Yeah, Jackson: U CLA could be in the top ten after this weekend. Davis: and then you also have Eric Morris. I mean, i they upset Oregon. That's that could very well be the reason that Oregon doesn't make the playoffs. You know, we're suit we're jumping the gun a little bit here, but just trying to project forward. and then you have Ryan Silverfield, obviously things aren't going well with Arkansas. And then you have Alex Goulish and that's TBD. So I think we I think we underestimated this one a little bit. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, definitely. I think we'd you know, most of those teams that you listed are not out of the playoffs yet. I wouldn't say necessarily I would project all of them in the playoffs, but UCLA, Florida, Oklahoma State, all of those teams have a chance to make the playoffs. A and we're almost halfway through the season. So it's definitely not a sentence I thought I'd be saying before the season started. So maybe missed a little bit on this one, but hey, I I'm happy to be wrong. on this category. So I like seeing like seeing these guys do good. Davis: Yeah. All right, the next one was transfer portal quarterbacks continue to dominate. this was a storyline based on what the previous year's transfer quarterbacks have done. so that group consists of, or this year's group consists of Darien Mensa, Sam Levitt, Byron Brown, Rocco Beck, Drew Mestemaker, Josh Hoover, DJ Lagway, and Austin Simmons. And that is in the order of how on three ranked each of the transfer porter quarterbacks. so at the time we said that it was one of the higher likelihoods to occur and then had a playoff impact. I think we nailed this one as well. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: I mean Darien Minsa is I think playing like the best quarterback in the nation, been surgical, fourteen hundred yards, fifteen touchdowns, zero interceptions. I mean Sam Levitt hadn't looked great, but still leading a you know, an LSU team that should make the playoffs. Josh Hoover's looked good. I think he's looked good at Indiana. The whole the big knock on him was the turnovers. He doesn't have an interception on the year. DJ Lagway playing very well for Baylor. Austin Simmons playing out of his mind. and then Drew Mestimaker. I mean really the the the two that Jackson: Really? Davis: haven't really hit are Byron Brown and Rocco Becht. But six out of the eight playing really well. I mean, we we had this as a very likely to occur and I think we still might have underestimated it, but I I I like where we put it here. Jackson: Yeah. No, I agree. But like what you said. I think, you know, Byron Brown, Rocco Beckler they're really the only two guys that haven't just I could maybe throw Josh Hoover in there. I don't think he's had to do a lot yet. They haven't asked a lot of him, so Davis: Yeah. Jackson: they'll get a test here in the next few weeks and we'll find out a little more about Josh Hoover. But I'm starting to think Indiana may have missed a little on their Josh Hoover eval, or maybe he was just like the only guy that they could afford slash available on the portal. But yeah. I I think you hit the nail on the head. All these other guys have have really shown that the new a change of scene, new team could it can be beneficial. So I think we're pretty much right on with this one too. Davis: Yep. All right. The next storyline that we had was the group of five representative makes a legitimate college football run. still it's we're only halfway through the season, so it's it's hard to evaluate how we did when we don't really have results or that much more information to go off of. at the time Boise State had the odds on favorite to make the playoff. Those odds have only increased. They are still the odds on favorite, followed by Navy at plus 900, JMU at plus a thousand, and North Dakota State at plus a thousand. really, it's just Boise State has separated themselves from the pact. I believe if we look at how we defined it, we said that it was very unlikely, which I I would agree with. I don't think we have any reason to. change our mind. I don't think that we expect a team to a group of five team to make a run in the playoffs. But if it were to occur, it would have a playoff impact. So we don't think it's gonna happen. And then the narrative in itself is a playoff impact. Jackson: Yeah, I says. Davis: So that's kind of how we rated it there. I'll let you kinda speak Jackson: Yeah, I mean I Boise's like a little bit closer to some of these P four schools than maybe we've seen in the past with with the G six representative. I think I mean they played Oregon close. They've kind of handled business in terms of all the other games they've they've played against I guess in you could say inferior opponents, but other G six schools so I don't think they're making a run to the playoff by any means, but I Boise is closer to a P four school than a lot of the maybe JMU or Tulane schools like that that we've seen in the past. Davis: Yeah. Would you would you move it to a little bit more likely? Jackson: Maybe a little bit. I mean, still in the very unlikely category, but we're kind of right there at zero, if you will. But I would maybe slide it a little bit over, but nothing too crazy. Davis: Yeah, I guess we have it where you can't go left. We have it as the most unlikely thing. So the only the Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Davis: only way to go is to a little bit Jackson: Yeah, maybe a hair to the right, but nothing crazy. Davis: Yeah. Alright, the next storyline that we have is the SEC nine game schedule will prove to be detrimental to the conference. kind of the basis for this is We thought that based on everything that the committee has showed us that they really value like the wins and losses, just the number over everything else. They don't, you know, take a deeper look at these teams. They don't kind of factor in any other metrics. It's it's just you know, sort teams by the the win record, sort teams by the loss record. And because of that we thought that The SEC adding another in conference game will, you know, in term Each of each team in the SEC will add half of a loss, you know, depending on a win or loss from the the individual matchup. I don't think that we have any data to change what we thought on this. We don't have any college football playoff rankings. There's not a whole lot to go on. So in my opinion this is a T B D, but my opinion on it hasn't changed. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, let's we'll have to hold off on this 'cause I mean if we don't have a college football playoff ranking, we don't know where the committee stands with ranking some of these teams. So we'll we'll put that one on pause for now. Davis: Yeah. All right. The next storyline that we had was roster continuity proves more important than building through the portal. This was something that we kind of did a lot of analysis on and looked back on how other teams that returned production looked that upcoming season. Our biggest kind of data point from last year was that Clemson had the highest number of returning production. and we know how their season went last year. This year that number is or those teams are led by Notre Dame at 72%, Maryland, South Carolina, Texas, Minnesota, Georgia, UCLA, Florida, Oregon, Texas Tech, USC, Texas AM, Oklahoma. So a lot of kind of hit or miss. Jackson: It's kind a mix. I mean Davis: Notre Dame's definitely look good. Maryland's look terrible. South Carolina's look terrible. Georgia's look good. So Hard to really have a definitive a answer on this one. Jackson: Yeah. I mean, I think again, it we're right here in the possible, but not super not a big impact. So I think kind of we weren't very aggressive with this take, so I think that's maybe where I'd stand on it. I think you have some teams that are like Georgia, Texas, UCLA, Florida that have done well, but then you like you said, you have Maryland, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas A and who haven't haven't looked so good. So I think obviously when you have a list that big you're gonna get get both sides. So I'd probably keep it where we where we're at, right here in the middle. Davis: Yeah, I will say the the teams with the top returning production list this year looks a whole lot better than it did last year. Jackson: Yeah, I agree. Davis: Okay. The next storyline was the changing of the guard has officially begun where the traditional powers such as and we kind of this is how we classified I it was more of a macro take, but we said the traditional powers are Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Texas, Georgia. have been overtaken by the new age contenders or the NIL big spenders, which are Oregon, LSU, Tennessee, Miami, Indiana, Texas Tech, Ole Mass. I I can hear people pushing back saying, Jackson: And it's saying Davis: well, Texas is a big spender and Oregon's been or LSU's their tr traditional power. I it wasn't so much as a team take, just a overall standpoint take. But we ranked that as somewhat lower on the likelihood to occur, but had a season defining impact or a playoff impact, sorry. Jackson: Yeah, I mean if you take out Michigan, so the traditional powers Bama, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Texas, Georgia, you take out Michigan, there's your top five. There's your AP top five. So Davis: Yeah, yeah. That is true. Jackson: I think where do we have it? Davis: I don't I don't think the traditional powers are going anywhere. I think that I was driving this one to be more likely and you were pushing back. We didn't have it as very likely, but I think if we listened to you, you we would have been more right at the time. Jackson: I mean here's the thing. With with the ex well, S E I don't know. Davis: I mean really the new age contenders are looking good too though. I mean LSU, Miami, Texas Tech had looked great, but Jackson: They are, but when you look at the the traditional powers all have money too. Like it's not just I mean I knew Davis: Yeah. It's hard to differentiate between the pr traditional powers and the n the NIL contenders because the NIL contenders have money because they were once traditional powers. Jackson: Right. Yeah. And the traditional powers obviously have been traditional powers so they have money. Like they've Davis: Yeah. Jackson: been successful so their programs have good bit of money. So yeah, I don't Davis: This take was a little convoluted. It's easy to conflate Jackson: Yeah. Davis: both both these these sections. So I don't know if we wanna list this as a T B D or a depends on how you define the the powers, but Jackson: Yeah. it's very like subjective. I mean Davis: It's yes. Yes, it's for interpretation. Jackson: Yeah, so we'll move on. This next one's Davis: Yeah. All right. For the n Jackson: kinda go ahead. This one this one's kinda shocking to me where we put this. I guess maybe not. Go ahead. Read it you can read it. Number eight. Eight. Yeah. Davis: For which one? For six or seven? Or I mean eight, seven or eight. All right. So number eight. We had the storyline was the hot seat claims multiple big names. And we said that it wasn't likely. Jackson: Yeah, yeah. Davis: Yeah, I'm actually surprised we said that. It wasn't likely and it would have a minor impact. And the names that we kind of threw out at the Jackson: Not the two two library. Davis: time, which I think we did relatively well on, were Mike Norvell. Bill Belichick, Dave Aranda, Shane Beamer, Luke Fickle, and then Deion Sanders, and then we threw out Lincoln Riley, and then I wanted to put in Kaylin Deborah, which obviously bad bad take, but wanted to throw that out there and looks bad evaluating it now. Jackson: just kind of Disregard the board for a second. Do you think any of these guys will be let go before the season ends? Davis: So I don't know if we defined it as before the season ends, but I think that Norvell's still gone. I'm I I think Beamer's gone before the season ends. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Dave Viranda, I I think he's doing enough to save his job right now. So I think his seat's not as hot. Luke Fickle, I don't think it's as hot as it was before the season. Deion Sanders is the interesting one. Jackson: Yeah, I don't know like what is the expectation for Colorado football? Like I feel like the whole reason you hired Deion Sanders was because nobody really cared about football in Colorado and like it it would draw some guys there that you would literally never get if he wasn't your coach. So like what do you what do you expect? I know he's gotta win. Like I know Davis: That's true. yeah. I I I think that he might have just like done he exceeded expectations early on and now it is it's coming back to hurt him. Like if he if he Jackson: Yeah. I don't know Davis: If he didn't have that great second year, Jackson: What do you think happens first? You think he's done? Davis: then he probably doesn't have as h high expectations going into this year and his probably isn't on Jackson: Yeah. Davis: as much of a hot seat. Jackson: That's fair. That's fair. Davis: But I I I think that we still get multiple big names. So Jackson: Yeah. Is there anyone that's not on this list that you would throw out there? Davis: I think Mike Loxley out of Maryland is good as fired. Jackson: He should he probably should have been on this list, to be fair. Probably missed him when we were Davis: I I I think that we I think we considered him and we were like, I don't know if that's considered a big name or not. Jackson: Yeah, I guess that's true. This is technically labeled big names. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: You think any the first year guys are gonna be gone? Like you think Arkansas could possibly say, we made the wrong hire, let's go in a different direction or no? Davis: no, I don't think so. I I mean the expectations were they're gonna win two or three games and they're probably gonna win two or three games, so I don't I think they give at least one more year. Jackson: Yeah. I agree. Davis: So so Belichick, if you had to guess right now, is he the coach at North Carolina next year? Jackson: Yes. Davis: I'm gonna say yes too. Which I would not have said yeah, Jackson: I think they're doing enough. Davis: which I would not have said before the season. Norvell, is he the coach next year? Jackson: They beat TCU, that's no, no chance. Davis: Yeah, I agree. And then Beamer, Beamer, were both saying Jackson: But I it they Davis: no. Jackson: B dude if Beamer makes it to the end of the season, I'd be shocked. Davis: Yep, I agree with you. So Jackson: Especially with the Dylan Stewart like I know that's pr you know, I don't know all the ins and outs of that program, but Dylan Stewart drama, it's just kind of a bad look and then you blow two leads to Mississippi State and Kentucky. I think both were seventeen point leads. So at home. So like yeah, Beamer's gone for sure. Davis: Yep. So I like I like two of these guys on this list for sure. I think the rest are are probably safe. Jackson: Yeah, I mean Figgle's doing well, Aranda's doing well, Lincoln Riley is kind of wild card to be determined. So All right. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. All right. Next storyline, we said the committee the committee punishes tough non-conference losses too much. So this kind of went hand in hand with SEC nine game schedule. This is another one where Jackson: Yeah. Davis: we don't have any information to really justify or I guess to reevaluate our take. We said that it was probably it was it was one of them it was almost a lock that the committee would punish non conference teams too much. I I will say while I think the I think that we were correct in our evaluation of it and I still would think that the committee would. I think n If you look back on the not the biggest non-conference games of this year, I think the committee kind of got lucky with the way that it was handled, where the only team that lost a tough non-conference game that is like a fringe playoff team or a or a lock for a playoff team is Ohio State. You look at all the other ones and the losers have lost another game and and probably aren't gonna be on the bubble by the time that the committee has to make a decision. So you got Oklahoma, Michigan. Oklahoma Jackson: Yeah. Davis: lost that game, they're not gonna be in consideration given what we know now. Clemson Jackson: Neither question. Davis: LSU, Clemson's not gonna be in consideration. Florida State, Alabama, Florida State's not gonna be in c consideration. Louisville, Ole Miss, Louisville maybe, Jackson: Yeah. Davis: but they're not I I guess they haven't looked great. Jackson: Doubt it. Davis: Yeah. I mean, i if they run the table, then yes, we will see how they they like punish that loss. But I don't see that I don't see Louisville being on the bubble. You know what I mean? So so really I think that Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, no, I agree. Sorry, I was nitpicking, but yeah. Davis: we could be correct in our take and saying that it was very likely that the committee punishes non-conference losses too much and not be proven right just because There wasn't a team that was punished and still was a bubble team. You know what I mean? Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, no, I agree. Davis: Which looking back, these non conference games, I mean all of kinda sucked except for Ohio State, Texas. All these teams have not not turned out too great. Jackson: Yeah, I agree. Davis: Alright, and then for our last storyline, we had new coach and new quarterback will turn programs around. we had this as projected, so something that we could foresee and then had a moderate impact. So I know we kinda covered some of these quarterbacks and teams so far, but the list includes Lane Kiffin, Sam Levitt, L S U, Golush and Byron Brown, Auburn, Summerall and Philo at Florida, you got Arkansas, you got Kentucky, you got Penn State, and you got Oklahoma State. I would say that I mean I would say that Florida and Kentucky have kind of turned and Oklahoma State have really turned their programs around, at least from the get go. Penn State still kinda underperforming. Auburn hadn't looked great. Arkansas, I don't think there is such a thing as turning that program around. So I think we underestimated this a little bit, but I think this also goes hand in hand with the the transfer portal thing as well. Jackson: Yeah, I agree. not much to add on that for me. Davis: it kind of bleeds into the transfer portal quarterback and then the new coaches thing. So not a whole lot of new analysis to Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Davis: provide here, but did have it ranked on the screen, which I think we did fine. So I kinda you know, through mid season I think we kinda evaluated the the storylines pretty well. Maybe we haven't got into the season enough to really turn everything on its head, but I like where we put it. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, I mean I don't think there was one that we just really missed on, so midway point in the season next week. we'll do it again at the end of the year, but I think so far so good. Davis: Yeah. Like it. Jackson: right. That'll do it. We'll have our next episode dropping when Thursday morning, like you feel like that's when we usually drop it. Around Thursday morning, we'll have the the previews and the and the picks out for for the next week's game. So be on the lookout. If you made it this far, like, subscribe, please. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Anything else? Davis: No. Thank you covered it all. Yeah. Appreciate y'all tuning in and be on the lookout for the next one. Jackson: All right. See ya. Davis: Yeah.