Latest / Financial Survival Network / Quality Mining Stocks Getting Primed for Intense Rally -- David Erfle #5994

Transcript

Quality Mining Stocks Getting Primed for Intense Rally -- David Erfle #5994 · Financial Survival Network

0:00
It's like you could say the same thing about gold, right. I mean,
0:02
what do the central banks see that your average retail investor that buys ETFs
0:09
doesn't see, Because that's what we're seeing, right, We're seeing central banks
0:12
continue to buy gold and keeping the gold price above two thousand dollars, while
0:16
your generalist investor continues to buy wildly overvalued stocks. You're listening to Carrie Leutz's
0:23
Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else
0:29
to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network now more
0:35
than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free newsletter and
0:40
gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever, and welcome. You are
0:50
listening to watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz.
0:55
They were the third week of January here and well, gold staying up over
1:02
two thousand, so you got to give it some credit there, But silver
1:04
not so good. The mining share is definitely not so good. But let's
1:10
talk with the head of a junior miner junkie, David Earthley. David,
1:15
it's great to have you back on so hey insane times we're living through here.
1:21
Huh yes, hey, great, great to see kerin. Thank thanks
1:25
for having me on again. Yeah, really really crazy times. The stock
1:29
market keeps going higher, the silver price and the gold miners continue to lead
1:36
the gold price lower. After the gold price made what a monthly quarterly you're
1:42
nearly all time high, but that elusive twenty level, which is where we
1:48
need that that monthly close above before we can really get excited as yet to
1:52
take place. While the stock market continues to go higher and zaps any enthusiasm
1:59
whatsoever out of even if you're considering getting into minors, which is which is
2:02
really a good thing if you're playing the long you know, the long game
2:07
here and accumulating shares because you know you're able to take your time and focus
2:13
and and focus on the best of the best and you don't have to worry
2:16
about the rest and continue to accumulate and wait for that, uh, that's
2:24
flip of the switch which we know is coming. You know, the FED
2:29
basically has caved on inflation, right, I mean towards the end of the
2:32
year last year, their last you know, the last FED meeting in the
2:36
middle of December, they basically caved. They issued a roadmap for for rate
2:39
cuts while inflation is still twice as high as their two percent target. Yeah,
2:46
and then they come out and and and and talk talk and say it's
2:52
it's and continue to say that the rates are going to stay higher for longer.
2:55
But they know they can't stay higher for longer because they know that they
3:00
cannot perform with under a higher under a long term high interest rate environment.
3:06
And that's why they issued that roadmap. And you know they're they're basically going
3:10
to keep doing what they're doing until they break something, and then that's their
3:14
modus operandi, right, I mean, the Fed is reactive, not proactive.
3:17
Right. Sure, they've been proactive and saying that they're going to cut
3:21
rates, but they're always reactive when they finally do. Yeah. Hey,
3:25
and it's to insult to injury it because site got hacked and they got ransomwared,
3:31
I guess. And now I look at the site, I don't know
3:35
where anything is anymore. Even though it was not the most attractive website,
3:38
at least you knew where to look. Now it's like nothing is the same
3:44
anymore. I know, it's crazy. And you know all my articles,
3:47
you know, I've been I've been writing a weekly article for kidco for you
3:52
know, since twenty sixteen, and they're all in their database, and now
3:59
all the links to all those articles are different. So I have to go
4:01
on my website and basically fight all the links that the correct links now that
4:08
they're that they're in the process of fixing this problem, and put them back
4:11
on my website us that that's a job for another day. But I digress
4:15
here. You know, it's it's really interesting the way the gold price continues
4:19
to hold up above two thousand dollars an ounce. If you look it looks
4:24
very bullish. And then you look at the charts of the gold stocks and
4:27
the gold sector, and you have to turn it upside turn it upside down
4:30
to for it to look the same, which you know, it creates the
4:34
opportunity, which you know, half of me is very you know, very
4:39
happy that you know, I've got a lot of subscribers recently that feel the
4:42
same way I do, and they're accumulating stock at these really really depressed,
4:46
ridiculously low prices. And but the other half of me, if is you
4:51
know, frustrated because you know, we know this is that this is going
4:57
to happen we just don't know when and going to happen, meaning the stock
5:00
market needs to roll over for for investors to to basically start looking for hedges
5:06
again and get back into the gold space because you look at the volumes of
5:12
especially these juniors, they're basically at I don't give a ship level, right,
5:15
I mean the jors, they're like almost completely a liquid. Yes,
5:23
there's a lot of them that are yes, and you know, let's face
5:26
it, you know most of them need to go away, and there's just
5:29
too many of them. There's only so many checks that these that these uh,
5:32
that these banks can write for these projects. You know, a lot
5:35
of these companies are fooling themselves and they're basically lifestyle companies that that that they
5:42
that they're fooling themselves into thinking that a major is going to come along and
5:45
buy them. Well, you're pulling their investors, uh, but exactly exactly.
5:51
I mean, let's face it, like eighty eighty five percent of our
5:55
lifestyle company and it's somebody. Yeah, it's up to somebody like me to
6:00
pick out the best of the best and get into the best of the best
6:04
at prices like this, because let's face it, you know, I mean,
6:09
the money you're going to make in this sector, you know, in
6:11
the future, is when you're buying in times like this. I mean,
6:15
you don't buy these things when they're rising. You buy them when they're sinking
6:17
and it's up to be And you know, and you're savvy investor, is
6:24
that that knows this sector to buy the right companies and hold the right companies
6:29
for when that switch does get flipped, which inevitably will. Have you ever
6:31
seen sentiment as negative and bearish and really just downright depressed as it is now?
6:40
No in relation to a strong goal price, I haven't. No,
6:43
I mean I've seen I've seen sentiment this bad. Yes, in late twenty
6:46
fifteen, absolutely, sentiment was actually worse than this. And at the same
6:51
time, projects weren't getting financed. You know, the good projejects are getting
6:58
financed now. But it's but it's you know, it's it's the early stage
7:03
exploration companies, you know, that have marginal projects that if they do finally
7:09
get a finance, finally, you know, find somebody to write them a
7:12
check. It's basically just money to keep the lights on because you need,
7:16
you know, you need at least a million bucks in the bank to keep
7:18
the lights on for a year. Sure. So yeah, so so it
7:23
is better in that respect as far as companies are getting financed. But in
7:29
late twenty fifteen, they weren't. I mean, I mean that this sector
7:32
had gone down eighty five percent into the end of twenty fifteen from from from
7:39
its peak in twenty eleven. So I mean that took that that basically took
7:44
all the generalists investors out of the sector, and it took a lot of
7:47
of resource speculators out of the sector. But it's it's it's funny that in
7:54
twenty fifteen also that it's kind of similar to what's happening right now because in
8:00
the end into the end of twenty fifteen, you had the mining sector finally
8:03
start to carve out a bottom after that just brutal for three point five year
8:09
bear market, right, it started to carve out that bottom, and a
8:13
lot of you know, contrarian speculators, which you have to be one to
8:16
make money in the sector. Sure, we're accumulating, you know, the
8:20
quality juniors heading into the end of twenty fifteen, and of course I was
8:24
one of them, and we just said to ourselves, hey, this is
8:28
just an incredible opportunity. Everybody thinks the gold price is going to go below
8:33
a thousand dollars, just like they thought gold was going to go above two
8:37
thousand dollars in twenty eleven. Well, it never happened in twenty eleven,
8:41
and it never happened in twenty fifteen. The gold price never got below one
8:43
thousand dollars. True, but the share but the market basically had one more
8:52
trick up at sleep after the calendar turned to twenty sixteen. After that,
8:56
after that base was being created. After six months, I think right like
9:01
the middle of January, there was a day where the where that bottom fell
9:05
out and all these stops were hit of these of these speculators accumulating these juniors.
9:11
They thought, okay, here we go again. We got a shoot,
9:15
we got a short dis sector and basically we got stopped out of everything
9:18
and wait for the bottom to come. Well, that very same day was
9:22
an inter day reversal. After stopping all these all these investors out, and
9:26
it just turned her around and never looked back. Six months, it went
9:31
up like over two hundred I remember, yeah, me too, like it
9:33
was yesterday. It was amazing. My account, you know, was was
9:37
you know, which which I started in UH in late twenty fifteen with about
9:43
its close to half a million bucks. It was down to like three hundred
9:46
and twenty five three hundred and forty thousand dollars a beginning of January, just
9:50
like, oh my god, this is ridiculous, and it just gotta wait
9:54
because I know, I bought the Riot companies and all of a sudden,
9:58
by the by by the middle of twenty sixteen, it was over a million
10:03
bucks, so, you know, and I was able to bank you know,
10:05
ninety nine percent capital gains in twenty sixteen after the year started off so
10:13
dreadfully. So that's you know, that's kind of reminiscent. I think of
10:16
what's happening right now because you know, into the end of twenty twenty three,
10:22
the gold stocks were creating a six month base, and now to begin
10:26
twenty twenty four, they're shitting the bed again. It looks like they're at
10:31
least going to test their October lows, and we could have a sharp move
10:35
or below those October lows. But that will be an incredible buying opportunity if
10:39
it happens. You think they'll test I think it's going to test the October
10:43
low, and we're only six percent away from right now, and there's there's
10:46
gaps in the GDX and gd XJ where they've sold down to the top of
10:52
those daily gaps right now. So I expect those gaps to fill here this
10:56
probably this week, heading into the you know, the FED meeting at the
11:00
end of the month. But because if you take a look at what's happening
11:03
with the miners and silver, they've been leading, they've been showing relative weakness
11:09
ever since the end of January. So they're basically screaming, hey, this
11:13
correction is the twenty twenty four is going to start off with a correction,
11:18
And that's what's happened. All right, Well, people, I talk to
11:24
the people and the good companies that actually have real projects there, Like you
11:31
say, they are able to raise money, they have majors, and they
11:35
have institutions sinking money into them. And I ask kind of every mining company
11:41
executive I speak with, I say, what do the institutions and the majors
11:46
see that the individual and the retail market are missing. It's like you could
11:52
say the same thing about gold, right, I mean, what do the
11:56
central banks see that your average retail investor that buys ETFs doesn't see because that's
12:03
what we're seeing, right, We're seeing central banks continue to buy gold and
12:05
keeping the gold price above two thousand dollars, while your generalist and investor continues
12:11
to buy wildly overvalued stocks and as opposed to starting to hedge because of what's
12:18
coming. I mean, if you take a look at what happened, what's
12:22
kind of similarly shaping out right now is we got it. We got a
12:26
huge bubble, right, I mean everybody knows it. It's just the timing
12:30
of what it's going to pope. People continue to ride it until until it
12:33
pops. Right. So we had the same thing happened at the turn of
12:35
the century, right, we had the dot com bubble into two thousand and
12:41
the bubble started to burst and the Fed, you know, the rates were
12:46
high the Fed. Everybody knew the Fed was going to lower rates, they
12:50
just didn't know when. And what did they do. The very first week
12:54
of two thousand and one, Alan Greenspag comes out and they announced an emergency
12:58
meeting cut fifty basis points. I remember that basically ushered in the gold bone
13:03
market that lasted a decade and old went from two fifty to nineteen twenty five.
13:09
I remember it well, me too. I mean, I didn't get
13:13
in until two thousand and three, but you know, I was accumulating stocks
13:16
from gold stocks from two thousand and three to two thousand and five. You
13:20
know, you know, I did something crazy and looking back on it,
13:24
very stupid, and selling my house and putting all the proceeds into juniors.
13:28
But at the time, you know, I wasn't married, I didn't have
13:31
a family. You know, it was just me. So it still going
13:33
to ford a solid opportunity. I'm like, this is this is this is
13:35
an incredible opportunity that could change my life. And I'm lucky. Luckily for
13:39
me, it was the right call because six months after I did it,
13:43
the gold price finally got over to that five hundred dollars level, which was
13:48
which was basically what the two thousand to twenty one hundred dollars it is right
13:52
now. Five hundred back then was the level that it couldn't get above,
13:56
and once it did, the gold price doubled in a few years years.
14:00
So my and I did really, really well, and I became financially independent.
14:05
I mean I got I mean sure, I got out lucky. But
14:07
I put myself in the position to be lucky. I did a lot of
14:09
research, I did a lot of work, and it paid off for me.
14:13
You know, I definitely don't invest gestures do that, you know,
14:18
don't do something like crazy like I did. But I mean, that's the
14:22
opportunity I see right now, like I saw back a great I started buying
14:26
gold, my first few ounces of it in nineteen ninety nine and I think
14:33
it was two hundred and eighty dollars the ounce, and kind of never looked
14:37
back. And yeah, we've had our ups and downs for sure, but
14:43
hey, it's basically ninefold the investment there. So you know, with very
14:50
holding on to as much as I possibly could. We had taxes, divorces,
14:54
weddings and stuff like that, so at some point happens in between,
15:00
right, yeah, but that's why you have it, you know exactly,
15:03
ultimate savings. And you hope, you hope to keep it to pass it
15:07
on to your kids. You hope you don't have to use that. Hey,
15:09
you have to use some, you got to use some. But I
15:11
kept all my silver. I have a friend who thanked me because in two
15:16
thousand and nine, ten and eleven, so I got him to buy gold,
15:20
and he bought a lot more than me, and then his business went
15:24
down the tubes and the divorce and a whole bunch of other stuff, and
15:31
he held on it in gold. He had to he had to sell off
15:33
a portion of it, oh substantial portions. But until you know, it
15:37
was a lifeboat for him. He said, if I hadn't listened to you,
15:41
if I hadn't bought that gold, I would have never saved that much
15:46
money in the bank and be able to flut my way through the couple of
15:52
bed years that I had. Right, So the ultimately is a different I'm
15:56
accepting physical that could that could save you and not being able to click a
16:00
button to get rid of it exactly, exactly and really important. And that's
16:06
the way he worked for me too. I mean, you know, that's
16:08
in a couple of rough years. But I had the metal there. I
16:12
always knew I had it. I still have it, And when I had
16:15
to dispose of some to pay some bills I did, I didn't feel good
16:19
about it. It was like gut wrenching to me, David, because I
16:22
knew where it was heading. But I wanted it seven and eight hundred so
16:27
it's still selling it a substantial profit a you know, one hundred percent or
16:32
so, but you know it hurt, no question about it. So yeah,
16:37
I mean the same thing with me. You know, I've had that
16:40
rock, and fortunately, fortunately for me, I've never had to sell any
16:47
you know, and I haven't bought any in quite a while. I haven't
16:51
bought any for for for over ten years, I know, from longer than
16:56
that, I think fifteen years, I haven't bought any. It just sits
16:59
there and you know, hopefully I can pass it along to my son.
17:00
But it's the silver that I bought most of, and I bought it,
17:03
you know, less than five bucks an ounce, and I don't even think
17:07
about it. I just think that's something I hope i'd never have to use
17:10
and I could just pass it along to my sid Yeah. I bought a
17:12
lot of it in that six seven dollars range in when silver crashed after the
17:19
great financial collapse, that's when I bought it. I was in there with
17:23
two hands nice the post office was bringing a handtruck into my office with the
17:30
bags of silver. That's what you have to do in this sector, right,
17:36
you have to buy those fishy lines and sell those right o ords.
17:38
I mean, especially in the stocks for sure. Hey, so I think
17:44
now and I think it'll agree, it's much easier to pick out those really
17:48
good juniors. Yeah, then it's ever been before because all the other ones
17:55
are literally on Karen maintenance. They're in like comas centers, right, yep,
18:00
absolutely absolutely, And you've got all this time to do all the proper
18:03
research to get into the right ones. And if you don't have the time,
18:07
you know, you can subscribe to a news letter like mine that it's
18:10
basically started his I've basically started my own mutual fund, right. I have
18:15
twenty stocks, twenty juniors that I you know, researched the hell out of.
18:19
I have a twenty stock watch list also in case, you know,
18:22
one of them does something I don't like and I can replace it with something.
18:26
And I know these management teams really, really well. Many of them
18:30
made me a lot of money in the past with previous projects, and I
18:33
keep up to date with them. You know. I go to Beaver Creek
18:37
and I go to the PEDAC conference. There are six months apart, so
18:41
I get to speak with pretty much everybody face to face that I need to
18:45
speak with every six months and if something happens, you know, they're they're
18:48
always available for me to to talk to them on a zoom meeting anytime I
18:52
want. And you know, these companies are doing the right things at the
18:57
right time. They're raising money at the right time. There their weathering storm.
19:00
They know, they have fantastic projects, they have the access to capital,
19:06
and they're just doing the right things in a really really bad market,
19:11
you know, and you really really in a bad market, you know,
19:15
it's the good projects always get financed. Yeah, so true, especially these
19:21
exploration companies. You know, they you know, they really need to start
19:25
merging. Some of them are starting to sell off some projects, but they
19:29
need to start merging. We see some of it, but we need to
19:30
see a lot more. Yeah. Well, I like when they sell off
19:34
a project, they take shares back in another company that can then consolidate that
19:40
project. So they're sitting on a really nice, you know, potential return
19:45
on investment. So the optionality in these shares really increases. And right you
19:52
know, there's a number right now. The really good thing right now is
19:56
you don't need to be a high net worth investor to take place in a
20:00
in a finance to get a warrant to have huge upside, right, because
20:03
these juniors are trading in perpetual war prices right now, you don't have to
20:08
you don't have to deal with having to, you know, get into a
20:12
private placement, worry about having to sell them four months later, or if
20:15
you're a US investor like me, I mean, I pretty much stopped participating
20:19
in private placement because they don't make any sense for you US investors anymore.
20:22
Nah No, especially when the Canadians don't have the hold at all now right,
20:29
head for the exits and when there's a new financing, they sell the
20:33
shares they had and they go into the new one and they get a warrant
20:37
and you know, right, while US investors have to deal with a draconian
20:41
legend removal process which is ridiculous, which is irrational and has no place in
20:47
the current financial markets. The way that business has transacted, it's a paper
20:52
process when we're using digital markets, makes no sense exactly, Yep, makes
20:57
no sense. Very least the hold should automatically dissolve. Okay, if you've
21:03
got behold, Yes, these fees they continue to charge us, Yeah,
21:11
US investors have to pay so many fees. It just doesn't make any sense.
21:15
It's enough to make you want to give up your citizenship move can well
21:21
at it is no solution. But Wes, you're not an American and you're
21:25
not subject to right, right exactly, only Americans who have penalized. So,
21:34
but we can rant and rave about tax wherever we go. You can't
21:38
escape it. Tax on global earnings. And then they want an exit tax
21:44
if you have too much money and you leave. So but more and more
21:47
people are becoming expats and renouncing their US citizenship, and that should be a
21:56
warning call, just like the price of gold, you know, yep,
22:00
So all right, I don't want to be a wet towel here, bummer.
22:03
I think the opportunities there if it's if we don't, you know,
22:07
it would make sense that we'll see another low, maybe in March, you
22:11
know, maybe in more well yeah, I mean watched silver and the shares
22:15
when they start to outperform gold, then you know it's a bottom basically,
22:21
Yeah, good point. All right, Hey, Junior Minor Junkie dot com
22:26
link is in the show notes of this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com.
22:30
Question for David myself, shoot me an email, Klatcarrie LUTs dot com
22:37
and Hey, sign up for a free newsletter. David, Always a pleasure,
22:41
Thanks for stopping by. Thank you Carry Always great to talk to you.
22:44
Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's
22:49
trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survival Network dot com.
22:55
Financial Survival Network now more than ever, CRUs