Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 353 - 9/16/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 353 - 9/16/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 353 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I am your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
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guys. And as we transition from
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betting just basically baseball every day to the football
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season, you guys are starting to pick up on the routine.
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What do we talk about on Tuesdays?
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Tuesdays we look at an early college football sharp report
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for the upcoming week. So three, first, three weeks in
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the books, moving on to Week 4. I did write a sharp report for
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visen.com, hitting on three early bets that caught my eye.
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Now, if you look back toward last week when we talked about
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those early plays, a lot of them really came through.
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So I want to try to get these numbers a little bit early
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because we did have Georgia Tech, Tennessee and Vandy all
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early bets in the week. Now, it didn't matter.
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It did matter with Tennessee because they lost by three, got
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3 1/2. But Georgia Tech went out right,
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Vandy went out right. But we always want to kind of
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think about, hey, you know, we're missing and we're waiting
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and we're, you know, hoping for football, but we got to wait a
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few days. But, you know, we can do we can
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get a leg up by looking at early moves, trying to pick off key
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numbers and hooks so that if we bet them early in the week, by
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the time Saturday rolls around, we're feeling pretty good,
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hopefully getting some closing line value.
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So I do have an early sharp report for college football week
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43 bets that I caught that caught my eye, two of which I
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already bet in pocket. 1/3 has moved quite a bit and I'm going
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to wait it out and try to get a key number.
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So it reminds me a little bit of if you remember James Madison
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couple weeks ago where they were like 15 1/2 down to like 13 1/2,
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but then they came back up to 14 1/2, lost by 14.
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So by waiting, getting a hook or a key number, obviously in that
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spot, it would be the hook came through and got the win.
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So an early sharp report for college football.
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And then also we're going to get right back to Major League
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Baseball. I know MLB, to me, it's been a
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little bit erratic and a little bit hard to consistently win at
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as we get to the tail end of the season here, but with nothing
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else going on. Guys, I did see 3 plays that
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were pretty much blueprint play for plays for us.
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Sharp line moves, lots of system matches, good bet splits.
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So as always, we're going to have 3 plays in baseball, try to
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go 2 and 1 eke out a winning day.
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Now, looking back to our last night, guys, frustrating,
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disappointing and just overall just pissed off after last
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night. There's no way around it, but O
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and 2 -, 2 units had a great play there.
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I, I, I really, to be honest guys, I'll make both of those
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plays 10 times out of 10. Texans money line, Vegas Raiders
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plus 3 1/2. And what happened?
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Well, nothing went our way. The public got the last laugh.
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Public was all over Tampa Bay getting 2/3 of tickets.
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However, we saw that sharp line freeze toward Houston and we got
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money line Houston at a good price.
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When they're -2 1/2. Well, they got juiced up and
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even closed at 3. So not only did we beat the
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closing line, but we really diagnosed that thing.
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I would say pretty much spot on. And it looked like we were going
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to find a way to win that game and cover When Houston scored a
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late Nick Chubb. It was really just a frustrating
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game all all game long because Houston couldn't get anything
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going offensively. But then Houston finally scores,
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gets up, what was it, 19 to 1219 to 13, something like that.
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And what happens? Well, they have a chance to ice
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the game out. Baker Mayfield 4th and forever.
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They cannot stop Baker. He runs for 30 yards, first down
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Tampa Bay, drives all the way down the field, walks off, wins
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it. So that was really, really
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frustrating. But again, I'll make that play
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10 times out of 10. Just unfortunately didn't come
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through. Chargers in Vegas, man, Geno
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Smith, who looked pretty good beating my Patriots Week 1,
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looked terrible last night. Couldn't get anything going
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offensively, couldn't get in the end zone through three
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interceptions. Chargers win 20 to 9.
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Another frustrating one there because we talked about getting
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the hook the 3 1/2 juiced up toward Vegas with some books
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even closed at 3. So we're diagnosing the games,
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right? They just didn't come through.
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And I think that can be so frustrating as a sports better.
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And I also always argue with, you know, people saying there's
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this common phrase like the right side is the winning side.
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So the right side was always Tampa Bay and the Chargers.
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OK, you guys, the public, you know had a good night, you know
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2/3 of bets both games, Tampa and the charters both came
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through. So Publix fat and happy drunk
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guy at the bar beat us last night.
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But I would argue the right side isn't always the winning side.
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You beat the closing line, you diagnose a game correctly, you
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do your part off the field as a handicapper a sports better.
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The teams on the field don't do theirs.
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So again, just a frustrating night.
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Sometimes that's going to happen, but, you know, I would
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feel worse if like, you know, we bet Houston at, you know -2 1/2
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and the line got down to one 1 1/2 and they lose.
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Like, OK, I made the wrong play. You know, line movement went
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away from me. Maybe it was a public play or
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maybe Vegas. We got plus 3 1/2.
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Line went to four 4 1/2. Then it was clear that smart
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money was steaming toward Chargers late.
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No, both games were, were games that I'll make every single
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time. Just didn't come through.
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And again, sometimes you just got to deal with that, but these
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are plays I'll make again and next time they pop up.
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And historically, you're going to win more often than you don't
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with these. It's just just a rough night
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where nothing went our way. So we're not going to smash the
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TV. We're not going to double down,
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triple down. We're just going to stick to the
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model, stick to the blueprint. And in a long NFL season, guys,
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you're going to have games like that where we do our part,
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players on the field let us down.
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And that's exactly what happened last night.
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But anyway, guys, we're going to turn the page, see if we can
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have a good Major League Baseball day.
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I did want to start off, however, it with some college
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football, as I mentioned. So you're talking about games
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early in the week and if you've been picking up on the new
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routine tomorrow, Wednesdays, we'll be looking at some early
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NFL sharp line moves in the NFL is kind of tough because there's
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a lot of backup quarterbacks like Carson Wentz is going to
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start from Minnesota, Jake Browning for Cincinnati, Jaden
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Daniels is banged up. We don't know who the jet
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starter is going to be. So there's a lot of games that
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are really moved and a lot of unknowns in terms of
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quarterbacks. So let's just let the dust
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settle, give it another day or so.
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Anyway, let's start some college football because it treated us
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well last week getting some games early so so we can hit on
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some winners hopefully early for this upcoming week.
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So first game that call my eye and I'll admit to you guys, I
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looked at the most heavily bet games so far, ranked teams,
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nationally televised games and really didn't feature much sharp
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blind movement. So these three games I'm going
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to give you are kind of lower under the radar plays, but
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hopefully they'll cast just the same.
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So the first one I'm looking at UNLV visiting Miami, Ohio.
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So 12:00 game coming up on Saturday.
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I'll set the stage talk line, movement, split system matches.
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I'll give you my early this is a lean.
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This is a play. It's not officially a play
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because I'm waiting for a key number, but it's pretty clear
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which side I'm I'm looking at here.
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Anyway, UNLV comes in three and O just beat UCLA 30 to 23 their
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last time out, winning out right as a 2 1/2 point home dog.
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Meanwhile, Miami Ohio, O and two just got rolled by Rutgers 45 to
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17. Didn't cover as a 15 point Rd.
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dog. So what have you seen across the
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market? Well, this game open UNLV listed
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as high as a 4 1/2 point Rd. favorite and the public says is
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the easiest game to cap. Just take UNLV, they're three
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and O. It's a short number.
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They're playing an O and two Miami Ohio team, so go UNLV.
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However, even though you're getting 70% of spread bets at
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DraftKings backing UNLV laying the points, this line has
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actually fallen toward Miami. OH, we went UNLV as high as -4
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1/2 now all the way down to UNLV -2 1/2.
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So let's take a step back. If 70% of tickets the public is
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all over UNLV, why are the odds makers dropping this number to
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make it easier for the public to cover when they're already
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hammering UNLV to begin with? Well, it tells me we got a
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classic reverse line move line going away from the popular Rd.
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team toward the unpopular home team.
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The splits look pretty good at DraftKings Miami.
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OH, 30% of spread bets, 70% of spread dollars circa Miami.
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OH, 47% of spread bets, 75% of spread dollars.
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Now both teams are coming off a buy and I do have a system here.
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Both teams coming off a buy take the home team.
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That system is 114 and 94 against the spread 55 percent 6%
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ROI all the way since 2006. It's kind of a rare spot, both
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off a buy take the home team, but also Miami, Ohio is just a
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classic gross hazmat contrarian play because they are a buy low
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team that's a winless team and as a dog versus a sell high
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undefeated favorite and UNLV. Now here's the thing, pretty
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much the entire market is down to UNLV -2 1/2.
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I want to go Miami, Ohio and the points here.
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This reminds me a lot of the movement that we saw in
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particular last week with Georgia Tech and Tennessee where
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public was taking the road favorite, but line kept dropping
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and dipping toward the home dog. But here's the thing, there
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really aren't any threes out there, but there are a lot of
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shops that are -2 1/2 -, 115 toward UNLV.
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So I'm going to put a pin in this one and just monitor this
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and say to myself, hey, it's pretty clear my Miami, Ohio is a
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sharp play, but I need that three.
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They lose by three key number. I want to push that bet, not
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lose that bet. So keep an eye out, shop around.
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I didn't see any book at 3:00. You could buy it up technically,
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you know, plus three at -120 -, 125.
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Let's just see between now and Saturday if it naturally kind of
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ticks back up. But Miami, Ohio looks pretty
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sharp. Public UNLV line keeps going to
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the what are they, the RedHawks? Next one they call my little bit
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more heavily bet Texas Tech in Utah, Couple ranked teams going
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at it. We have Texas Tech 3 and O.
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By the way, there's a noon game on Saturday.
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Texas Tech 3 and O ranked 17th, just beat Oregon State 45 to 14
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covered as a 24 point home favorite.
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Utah, by the way, 3 and O ranked 16th, just took down Wyoming 31
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to 6 covered as a 24 1/2 point home Rd. favorite.
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I should say what will be seen across the market here?
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Well, similar line move, but in this case it's going away from
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the home favorite toward the road dog.
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Whereas the game we just talked about line is moving away from
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the road favorite toward the home dog.
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So in this one, we opened this game, Utah around a four point
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home favorite. Some shops even as high as 4
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1/2. And we've seen this line even
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though it's basically, you know, we'll talk about the splits in a
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second. It's kind of pro and Joe, but
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it's very clear this line has moved toward Texas Tech.
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We went from Utah -4 1/2 -4 down to -3 1/2.
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Now a lot of books are 3 1/2 getting down to three.
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I jumped on Texas Tech plus 3 1/2 - 115 little bit earlier
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today. Now I'll look right now, but
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this is a good sign and a bad sign because when I wrote the
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Sharp report and when I bet this game and it got sent to Juice
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Reel, it was let me see what my number was.
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Plus 3 1/2 - 115. Well, it looks like there's only
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one 3 1/2 left on the board, or actually two of them.
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ESPN bet is plus 3 1/2 -, 125. Fanatics is plus 3 1/2 -, 120.
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But every other book is 3 and FanDuel is actually at 2 1/2.
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So this line is moving toward Texas Tech.
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Again. You got to get the hook.
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Just like that Tennessee game. Lose by three.
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You want to cover with the 3 1/2.
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But if you still want to play this one and you didn't bet it
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yet, looks like ESPN Bet and Fanatics are the only 3 1/2's
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left. Again, you need the hook with
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Texas Tech so Lions clue clearly moving toward Texas Tech
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DraftKings. Texas Tech 59% spread bets 65%
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dollars at circa 60% spread bets 68% dollars.
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So both low bets higher dollars Pro and Joe in favor of Texas
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Tech Have a system match here. Short Rd. dogs getting 4 or
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less. Remember it's usually about 3
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points for home field. Therefore, if you're a road dog
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of four or less, think about a neutral site, it's basically
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these teams are even, or at this point, you know, lines down to
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three, 2 1/2 even tells me that maybe Texas Tech would be like
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-1 on a neutral site. Texas Tech also has that betting
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system value as a conference dog.
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So two team, same conference, built in familiarity, rivalry
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aspect typically levels the playing field, benefits the team
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getting points. And what I really like is a dog
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who can score just a match. So if you are playing a dog, you
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kind of need one or two things, either a really good defense to
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keep the game low scoring to cover the number, or you need to
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put up a lot of points on your own to keep pace or back to our
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cover. Well, did you know?
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I know it's early in the year, it's only Week 4, but the number
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two highest scoring team in the country is Texas Tech.
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They're averaging 53 1/2 points per game, second in college
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football. Utah's averaging 37 points a
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game. No slouch that, but that ranks
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23rd. But I actually love the fact
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that again, I wrote this sharper vote for visen.com earlier
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today. You can always follow at Josh
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under score insights at plus 3 1/2 Texas Tech A lot of these
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books are not down to three. So Texas Tech officially in
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pocket plus 3 1/2 for me. Last early bet 7:30 PM Eastern
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Time. Again, not the most heavily bet
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game, but Southern Miss and LA Tech going into yet.
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Southern Miss two and one just took down App State 38321
13:26
outright as a three-point home dog.
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Louisiana Tech is also two and one.
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They just crushed New Mexico State 49 to 14, easily covered
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as a 10 point home favorite. So what do we see across the
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market here? Well, you know, I love those
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sharp dogs with line moves, but this is kind of a sneaky
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favorite sharp line move because Louisiana Tech has been getting
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hammered. They open as low as -1 1/2 at
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home. They're now all the way up to -3
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and a lot of these threes are juiced up -3 -, 115, like it may
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even go to 3 1/2. So it's been very clear.
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And again, I don't think the public woke up on a Tuesday
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morning and said I got to bet Southern Miss Louisiana Tech.
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No, but it tells me wise guys have really circled Louisiana
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Tech here. Now, Louisiana Tech aside from
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that one way movement, 68% bet, 69% dollars at DraftKings, circa
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64% bet, 67% dollars. So low bets, higher dollars, but
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I'm going to play this one a little bit like the Texans last
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night. Again, didn't come through,
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ended up losing the play, but money lining a short favorite.
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I would hate Louisiana Tech to win by three.
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And the sharps who got the -1 1/2 -, 2 -, 2 1/2 early.
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They win, we lose a three. This might even go to 3 1/2.
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I see one book at 3 1/2. You lose a 3 1/2.
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So I'm, I'm money lined Louisiana Tech.
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I was able to get Louisiana Tech I believe.
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Let me just double check because I think there was a book that
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was even lower than that or I guess -145 which is, let's see,
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best price that was from this morning.
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Looks like the best price is now -155 at bet MGM or ESPN bet some
15:01
shops. Looks like DraftKings is like
15:02
-166 But I want a money line. LA Tech just win the damn game.
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I like that at Circa they're getting 50% of money line bets.
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Only half, but over 90% of money line dollars.
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And I do believe Rhythm has Louisiana Tech.
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I want to say where did I write them down as if I have in front
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of me. Rhythm has Louisiana Tech -4.2.
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So again, Rhythm was spot on with that Eagles game as favored
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by three when they were short favorite.
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Hopefully we get more of the same here when it comes to
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Louisiana Tech. So maybe not the three games you
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were really, you know, excited to talk about or breakdown.
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But again, you got to go where the data is telling you.
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There's been movement and and system matches and splits and
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sharp money. You can't just force it if it's
15:48
not there. So it looks to me like early on
15:51
we have Miami, Ohio, Texas Tech, and Law Tech Again, I'm waiting
15:55
on a + 3 for Miami, Ohio, but I already took Texas Tech plus 3
15:59
1/2 and already money lined Louisiana Tech -145 S some early
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college football Week 4 talk. Tomorrow we'll talk NFL Week 3.
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But now let's transition over to some Major League Baseball.
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Now I love betting MLB. We've been grinding MLB since
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the damn start. I thought we were having a
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really good year up until, I would say, I don't know, maybe
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about a month ago, but just it kind of coincided with the
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return of football where just erratic, crazy things, systems
16:28
weren't hitting weird upsets. Sometimes you get that at the
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tail end of the season. But that being said, we got a
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full slate tonight. There's nothing else to bet on.
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So let's go right back to Major League Baseball.
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So first one on the board for me, 3 pack.
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Let's try to go 2 and one. Let's look at the Athletics
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visiting the Boston Red Sox. Now, I must say as a Red Sox
16:49
fan, I'm also a Red Sox over 85 1/2 win total better right now
16:55
they're at 82 wins. So we need four more wins to
16:59
catch this one. And I would love to get a win
17:01
here tonight because I like the Red Sox.
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But coming into what we got, the A's 70 and 80 on the year, Red
17:06
Sox 82 and 68. Red Sox just dropped two or
17:10
three against the Yankees, but avoided the sweep with a six to
17:12
four win on Sunday. And believe it or not, the A's
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just swept the Cincinnati Reds in a three-game set and they've
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won four in a row. So a pitching match up for this
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one. Couple lefties.
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Jeffrey Springs going for the A's, He's 10 and eleven, 4.28
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ERA. The Red Sox are going with
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Connelly early. Now, if you've never heard of
17:30
this kid, that's all right. He's a rookie.
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He just made his debut last time out against the A's, 16,
17:36
nothing. Had 11 strikeouts, 5 innings
17:38
pitched. Kind of excited about this kid.
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He doesn't throw like Randy Johnson fastball, but he's got
17:44
good location, good stuff. So we got 2 lefties here going
17:47
on the bump. Now what are we seeing across
17:50
the market while the Red Sox open this game around a -, 150
17:54
home favorite and we've now seen the Red Sox get seemed up to
17:57
around -160 -, 165 S pretty clear one way movement in favor
18:02
of Boston. I did get the Red Sox at
18:04
Caesar's at -160 looks to be the best price.
18:07
You're getting around 75% of bets, 80% of dollars on Boston
18:11
at DraftKings. So a little bit of a low bets
18:13
higher dollar pro and Joe split in favor of the Red Sox.
18:17
Now couple things to like about Boston.
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One would be a non division favorite.
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Lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
18:24
We also have a bunch of system matches here.
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So if you are a rested favorite coming off a day off your
18:29
favored, you're off yesterday. Red Sox match 76 and 3867
18:34
percent, 5% ROI both off a win. Take the home favorite 70 and
18:39
4461% 3% ROI. Both had the day off.
18:44
Take the home favorite 90 and 4090 and 4965 percent, 5% ROI.
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Big one here, both off a win. Take the home team one O 8 and
18:53
6463 percent, 15% ROI. So all these systems are
18:58
matching with the Red Sox. I'm also going to bank on
19:00
hopefully Boston bats getting to Jeffrey Springs because Springs
19:05
did go against early out in Sacramento 5 innings, gave up
19:10
five runs and he's got aera of over 5 in the month of the month
19:15
of September. And he's also not done great
19:19
really on the road. You look at a splits on the road
19:23
his he's 5 and 6 here because the ERA isn't that bad 3.61 but
19:28
he has struggled against the Red Sox and they have some
19:30
familiarity against him. So hopefully that kind of you
19:33
know, benefits the Red Sox in this spot.
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But I do like the fact that Boston is 4th in baseball
19:38
against lefties hitting 261, fourth in baseball at home
19:41
hitting 263. And then also just some home Rd.
19:45
splits. A's 37 and 38 on the road,
19:48
Boston 45 and 30 at home. So rested, ready to go.
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Sharp line move. Bunch of splits here, both have
19:55
the day off, take the home team, take the favorite, favorite off,
19:58
a day off, all matching and lighting up with Boston.
20:01
So I did play the Red Sox here hopefully to win this opener
20:05
against the A's. I got the Boston Red Sox -160 at
20:09
Caesars, next one for you, San Diego Padres, New York Mets is a
20:14
7:10 PM Eastern Time first pitch.
20:16
If you're looking to bet this one, you should be able to watch
20:18
it on TBS. Actually got another late game
20:21
on TBS here to talk about but Padres going to the Mets. 82 and
20:26
68 for San Diego this season. They did just take three out of
20:29
four at or at home against Colorado.
20:32
New York Mets 77 and 73 and they have really struggled.
20:35
I believe they're one and eight, their last eight and they just
20:38
snapped an 8 game losing skid. They beat Texas back on Sunday.
20:42
Now a pitching match up for this one.
20:44
Michael King, the righty going for the dads four and two, 2.87
20:49
ERA. Clay Holmes, the righty going
20:51
for the Mets 11 and eight 3.75 ERA.
20:54
So what do you see across the market here?
20:56
Well, even though the Mets have really struggled and this is a
21:00
5050 split, public doesn't know whether to take San Diego or the
21:03
Mets at DraftKings on the money line.
21:06
There has been a clear line move here and I'm going to follow the
21:08
sharp line move. It's toward the New York Mets.
21:11
I know they've struggled. I know this feels gross, but got
21:14
to trust the market. Mets open at basically a pick em
21:17
minus one O 5 -, 110 short -115 home favorite.
21:21
Now they've been bet up to -125 if you shop around, you can find
21:25
the Mets -120 at Fanatics. But a couple things to like
21:29
about the Mets in the spot. Non division favorite, lack of
21:31
familiarity, benefiting quote UN quote.
21:33
The better team who's favored to win that night.
21:35
Favorite low total total. This one is 8 free amount of
21:38
expected run scored. More likely to come from again,
21:40
the team that's favored. And then a ton of system matches
21:43
on the New York Mets. Both off a win.
21:45
Take the home favorite. A lot of these are the Red Sox
21:47
systems as well. 61 percent, 3% ROI.
21:50
Both had the day off. Take the home favorite 65
21:53
percent 5% ROI Both off when take home team 63 percent 15%
21:58
ROI Home fave made the postseason off a win with a line
22:03
move in their favor 64% this season.
22:06
Sweet spot Home favorite opponent made the postseason 61
22:10
percent 7% ROI. Non division home fave off a win
22:14
with a line move at -150 or less.
22:16
This one's been really good. 161 this year, 62%, 10% ROI.
22:21
So all those systems are lighting up on the Mets.
22:24
It's a really bi low hazmat gross play because again,
22:27
they're one and eight, their last nine and boy do they need
22:29
to win. And also the Diamondbacks who
22:32
sold a bunch of guys. I think they're right on their
22:33
heels for the last wild card. We also a comb Rd.
22:36
San Diego, 35 and 40 on the road.
22:39
Mets 46 and 29 at home. So hopefully they can get back
22:42
on track at home. But again, it's hard to back the
22:45
Mets right now because they're struggling.
22:46
But the markets telling me they're sharp tonight, so I'm
22:48
going to play New York, shop around, around -125 pretty much
22:52
everywhere but at Fanatics. Yankees or sorry, the Mets are
22:56
-120 that's where I played New York Mets -120 at Fanatics last
23:01
game of the night. You won't have to change the
23:03
channel TBS for Mets, Padres. Right after that one
23:06
doubleheader, we have the Philadelphia Phillies and the LA
23:10
Dodgers. Maybe a National League
23:13
Championship series, who knows. Anyway, Phillies come in 90 and
23:16
61 on the year. They just won the opener against
23:19
the Dodgers. Six to five in extra innings
23:21
last night. Dodgers 84 and 66 on the season.
23:25
Pitching matchup pretty good. Christopher Sanchez, the lefty
23:28
going for the fills, he's 13 and 52.57 ERA.
23:32
He'll be opposed by Shohei Otani.
23:35
One and one 3.75 ERA. What have we seen across the
23:38
market? This game opened very short.
23:41
Dodgers -115 home favorite and we've seen nothing but steam in
23:46
favor of the Dodgers. Kind of a rare spot to get the
23:49
Dodgers at a pretty, pretty low price at home.
23:52
But Dodgers have been bet up -115 up to -135 -, 140.
23:56
I got the dodgers -135 at Caesar's.
23:59
Looks to be your best price right now.
24:01
But I really like the splits on the Dodgers.
24:03
A draftking 61% bet 76% dollars at Circa only half the tickets,
24:08
but 95% of the dollars you look at favorite low total total in
24:14
this one is 7 1/2 non division favorite.
24:16
Lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote.
24:19
The better team was expected to win.
24:21
Now Christopher Sanchez is is no slouch, but Dodgers are #7 in
24:25
baseball against lefties hitting 256 and I got some system
24:29
matches here on the Dodgers. A game two home favorite with a
24:32
line move after losing the first game, 25 and 1366 percent, 5%
24:37
ROI. This year.
24:38
Short home favorite -150 or less off a loss versus an opponent
24:42
who made the postseason 43 and 3158 percent, 3% ROI.
24:47
A sweet spot home favorite playing an opponent who missed
24:50
the postseason, 61 percent, 7% ROI.
24:53
Home favorite who made the postseason versus opponent who
24:55
also made postseason, 59 percent, 2% ROI.
24:59
So all those systems are lighting up on the Dodgers.
25:02
Dodgers on the year, 48 and 27 at home.
25:05
Phillies, they're about 539 and 38.
25:08
Sorry, 39 and 37 on the road. But hopefully a good spot to
25:12
trust this splits, these splits in line move here toward the
25:16
Dodgers. I laid it with otani -135 at
25:19
Caesars. So Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers, let's
25:23
try to get 2 out of 3 eek out a winning night.
25:27
So that about does it for episode 353 of the All systems
25:30
go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
25:33
As always, we're going to finish up with a few final thoughts,
25:35
suggestions, give you some links and places to go for some more
25:38
sports betting resources. But first I want to say thank
25:41
you. Thank you for tuning in.
25:42
Thank you for listening. Thank you for grinding and and
25:45
sweating these games of me. But really, if you enjoy the pot
25:48
and you want to help me grow this podcast, would you please
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do something very simple, very easy.
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I I swear to you, it's painless. Just give it a five star review
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and Spotify our iTunes. If you want to click the follow
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button or leave a nice comment or recommend the pod to a
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friend, I'd very much appreciate that as well.
26:05
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven
26:08
sharp contrarian betting focusing on line movement
26:11
numbers, data split system matches, taking a contrarian
26:14
approach. If this style of betting has
26:16
appealed to you, you want to learn more about data-driven
26:19
betting or you have someone in your life who could use some
26:21
data-driven tips, please go to Amazon.com and type in the NFL
26:26
Sharp betting playbook and then type in the everything guide to
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sports betting. Those are my two books.
26:31
I'm very proud of them. Please continue to tweet me your
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photos of you holding up the NFL sharp Betting playbook somewhere
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across the country or the world. I'd love to retweet that and if
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you want to give the five star review and a nice comment or two
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on the Amazon page for both or one or both of the books, I'd
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very much appreciate that as well.
26:50
And then you can bring the everything guide in the NFL
26:52
sharp betting playbook to the sports book.
26:54
I'll sign him for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale
26:57
and we'll sweat some baseball games together next.
26:59
Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice real yet?
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Rhythm fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions
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for game bets and player props. Remember you can use promo code
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start 25 for 25% off. Also notice there's a new tab on
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So I believe you either both get a discount or you get free
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download Juice Reel. If you want to support the pod,
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If you want to sign up to get the all systems go official best
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bet picks, you know you would have gotten a 3 1/2 there
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earlier today with with who was it we're talking about?
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I'm already I'm already blanking on the games we talked about
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Texas Tech. That's right.
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But for $4.99 a week, you'll get all the best bets as soon as I
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You get the plays. I consider that tipping your
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podcast host. I'll also get the robo Jackson
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best bet picks, the sharp motion indicators, the arbitrage plays,
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the shop for the best line futures all available when you
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download Juice reel. So download rhythm, download
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Juice reel, give me 5 star review in the App Store.
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Next you have a live odds page. If you don't you need one.
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You got to be able to track the market, figure out the opening
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line, the current numbers, shop for the best price, identify
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steam when the when the odds get lit up in red live scoring live
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in game wagering odds find the best price all available to you
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when you give a shot to odds logic just go to
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oddslogic.com/josh 123. You get a 7 day free trial, 50%
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off your first month. And then lastly, don't just bet
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against the house you you lose. Don't give all your money to the
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house you want to win. Obviously we all do.
28:41
And you don't want to get limited and you want to get
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better odds. And when you win, you want to
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take money maybe from another better or you lose another
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better gets your money instead of giving the house all your
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money. And you can do that with a
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betting exchange. So you can sign up with Novig.
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I partnered with Novig. NOVIG.
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You put in 25. It operates just like a sports
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book. They'll give you 50.
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You can also click the pin tweet to my Twitter profile at Josh
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under score insights for that that promotion as well.
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So that about does it as always, guys.
29:26
Two final thoughts, whether I see you at the Borgata and
29:28
Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New
29:30
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, the
29:33
Encore in Boston, Plainridge Park casino, MGM Springfield,
29:36
the Nash up here where I'm at in New England or out in the desert
29:39
where the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his number
29:42
runners where Lois true as possible is found, the South
29:44
Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
29:47
stadium swimming pool when he cash a big ticket at Circa,
29:50
wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me.
29:51
We're just going to shake our heads.
29:54
Texans, Vegas, Raiders again. I'll make those bets 10 times
29:57
out of 10. I can't believe we lost both of
29:59
them. But hey, that's betting.
30:01
Betting's a humbling experience. You do everything right on your
30:03
end. Guys on the field let you down.
30:06
But as always, guys, whether we're O and two, two and O one
30:09
and one again after a great night, a terrible night, making
30:13
good bets that lose, making maybe mistakes that win, we can
30:16
never get too high or get too low.
30:17
We got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint, stay
30:19
disciplined with our bankroll management and just weather the
30:23
storm. You have a tough night.
30:24
You don't get down on yourself, you don't get depressed.
30:27
You don't, you know, punch a window and you're you're, you
30:29
know, your hand starts bleeding. Just just let it go.
30:31
I know it's easier said than done.
30:33
It's emotional endeavor. It annoyed the heck out of me.
30:36
I was frustrated going to bed last night.
30:38
But you know, sometimes there are nights where you go into
30:41
some nights ago 2 and O. So we just got to stick with it.
30:43
And again, we're beating closing lines and and losing.
30:46
So sometimes that happens, but it tells me we got our finger on
30:49
the pulse. We're making smart bets.
30:51
We're just not getting getting the brakes that we should.
30:53
So we're going to stick with it. Keep grinding and as always,
30:55
find games that fit our model against the public with the
30:58
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
31:01
If we can do that, I'm pretty confident that we can then guess
31:05
what long term we're going to be successful sports bettors.
31:07
So have a great Tuesday everybody.
31:09
Let's get some winners on the diamond.
31:10
We'll be right back at it tomorrow to talk some NFL and
31:13
maybe some more baseball bats. That'll be episode 354 of the
31:18
All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
31:21
Good luck everybody and have a great Tuesday night.