Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Interview Only w/ Matt Bennett - Will The Progressives Or The Center-Left Define The Democrats?
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- 1:41Speaker 1: on this frankly fight for the soul of the Democratic
- 1:45Speaker 1: Party and where it's headed. Matt Bennett of Third Way
- 1:50Speaker 1: and look, I'll let Matt correct me when I say this,
- 1:54Speaker 1: but I think the way I have viewed the Third
- 1:57Speaker 1: Way Democrats, this is sort of remnants of the old
- 2:01Speaker 1: DLC wing of the Democratic Party, the sort of you
- 2:04Speaker 1: might call it the pro business wing, you might call
- 2:06Speaker 1: it the pragmatic wing. It depends on how you want
- 2:09Speaker 1: to brand it, but it is definitely more on the
- 2:13Speaker 1: center left versus if we're we've've got the three buckets
- 2:17Speaker 1: right now of Democratic primary voters, your center left, your
- 2:20Speaker 1: progressive capitalists, I guess we'll call them, but this is
- 2:23Speaker 1: a conversation I want to continue to have. And then
- 2:26Speaker 1: the socialist wing, let's just say I think the third
- 2:30Speaker 1: Way wing feels on the run, and Matt Bennett joins me. Now, so, Matt,
- 2:35Speaker 1: do you accept my description.
- 2:38Speaker 2: Mostly? Yeah, I mean were some corrections in there. Yeah, well,
- 2:42Speaker 2: you know, look, we definitely are. We called it solose
- 2:46Speaker 2: third Way, which was a term that Bill Clinton and
- 2:48Speaker 2: Tony Blair used back in the nineties. The DLC kind
- 2:50Speaker 2: of came up with that, So we accept that, and
- 2:53Speaker 2: we're certainly center left, we're moderates, and we believe that
- 3:01Speaker 2: mainstream pragmatism is still the way to govern and the
- 3:04Speaker 2: way to win in competitive places and nationally. So yeah,
- 3:10Speaker 2: I would I'll take that, Moniker.
- 3:12Speaker 1: So need, let's just say we're talking on Wednesday, the
- 3:14Speaker 1: day after the Mom Donnie primary night, which I think
- 3:17Speaker 1: June twenty third will be known as it was an
- 3:20Speaker 1: impressive showing for Mom Donnie and his political machine in
- 3:23Speaker 1: New York City. And obviously the question is whether is
- 3:27Speaker 1: this the start? Is this the Ted Cruz defeat of
- 3:30Speaker 1: David Dewhurst, David Brat's defeat of Eric Canter. What was
- 3:36Speaker 1: it Richard Murdock's defeat of Dick Lueger, which would turn
- 3:40Speaker 1: out to be more significant at the time inside the
- 3:43Speaker 1: right and what was happening in the Republican Party. Is
- 3:46Speaker 1: that the moment we're looking at, or is what happens
- 3:49Speaker 1: in New York City stay in New York City.
- 3:52Speaker 2: I really hope not. I mean, if this is a
- 3:54Speaker 2: Tea Party moment, that is very scary for my party.
- 3:57Speaker 2: I don't think it is, as I'll get to in
- 3:59Speaker 2: a second, but I but to your point, that's it
- 4:03Speaker 2: could be a real problem. I mean, the Tea Party
- 4:06Speaker 2: cost Republicans at least half a dozen Senate seats by
- 4:10Speaker 2: nominating total twenty.
- 4:13Speaker 1: Ten and twenty eighteen. I think, yeah, yeah, probably, I
- 4:16Speaker 1: mean you could come up with six. I mean I
- 4:18Speaker 1: have a consultant friend of mine was still sort of
- 4:22Speaker 1: whines about Nevada in twenty ten and and Mike Castle
- 4:28Speaker 1: in Delaware. I think also was a twenty ten race. Yeah,
- 4:33Speaker 1: with the with the you know, Chris Coons, the accidental
- 4:35Speaker 1: senator you know back exactly.
- 4:37Speaker 2: I mean, who could forget the greatest out of all time.
- 4:39Speaker 2: I'm not a witch, I'm new so right, I mean,
- 4:43Speaker 2: and and.
- 4:43Speaker 1: Look by the way that ad would have worked today
- 4:46Speaker 1: totally yes, and either party right, sorry.
- 4:51Speaker 2: But like I mean, that was in a competitive race
- 4:56Speaker 2: in a Delaware used to be kind of a purple place.
- 4:59Speaker 2: And and these are not all the districts that you
- 5:03Speaker 2: just the three districts where Mum Donnie had big wins
- 5:05Speaker 2: last night have a combined average of D plus thirty
- 5:09Speaker 2: six parts of voter indecks. So these are very very
- 5:12Speaker 2: very blue places. We're not gonna win. We're going to
- 5:15Speaker 2: lose any of these seats obviously. So at the moment,
- 5:19Speaker 2: the kind of tea party moment for Democrats is not
- 5:21Speaker 2: really threatening to fumble away winnable places, with a couple
- 5:27Speaker 2: of exceptions. So for example, we're really worried about the
- 5:30Speaker 2: Michigan Center primary. If a Bill say Ed wins that
- 5:34Speaker 2: three way primary, I think he loses to Mike Rodgers
- 5:38Speaker 2: in a you know, basically purple Michigan. Alissa Slakan, who
- 5:42Speaker 2: ran a brilliant campaign last night, barely beat Rogers. And
- 5:46Speaker 2: I've will said it's way too far left. So we're
- 5:49Speaker 2: worried about losing winnable races. But the races last night
- 5:53Speaker 2: were not that those were examples where very very radical
- 5:59Speaker 2: people like a village chaber is I don't know if
- 6:02Speaker 2: I'm pronouncing your name. Right is the farthest left person
- 6:07Speaker 2: elected in my lifetime to Congress by far, and we're
- 6:11Speaker 2: just worried that those ideas can be really weaponized against
- 6:14Speaker 2: Democrats elsewhere.
- 6:16Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting, you know, I characterized Tuesday night in
- 6:20Speaker 1: New York City is a really bad night from Kim Jefferies,
- 6:23Speaker 1: meaning that if he is the next Speaker of the House,
- 6:29Speaker 1: he is going to be dealing with his own version
- 6:32Speaker 1: of a Freedom Caucus.
- 6:33Speaker 2: Yep.
- 6:34Speaker 1: And it does feel as if that the progressive left
- 6:37Speaker 1: here the DSA has learned a thing or two from
- 6:41Speaker 1: the right in sort of how do you extract concessions
- 6:45Speaker 1: when you're in the minority right, you're in the minority
- 6:48Speaker 1: of the majority right. And this was the brilliance of
- 6:52Speaker 1: the Freedom Caucus, but it's been terrible for governing. Right,
- 6:55Speaker 1: like the Trump era is not known for big policy
- 7:00Speaker 1: wins because they can't really govern. They've had some control
- 7:04Speaker 1: a couple of times, but this faction inside their own
- 7:08Speaker 1: party essentially, I mean Chip Roy has done more to
- 7:11Speaker 1: prevent republic and legislation from passing than any Democrat has.
- 7:17Speaker 1: That's what strikes me is more plausible of how this
- 7:20Speaker 1: becomes a disruptive force inside the party.
- 7:23Speaker 2: I think that's exactly right now. There's a couple of
- 7:25Speaker 2: things keep in mind. One is the Freedom Caucus, as
- 7:29Speaker 2: a percentage of the House republic Conference was larger than
- 7:32Speaker 2: I think the DSA faction will be. The Progressive Caucus
- 7:36Speaker 2: is quite large, but you know, the those folks Promila,
- 7:42Speaker 2: Jaia Paul and Mark Pokan who run the Progressive Caucus,
- 7:45Speaker 2: they're not out to disrupt the way that the Freedom
- 7:49Speaker 2: Caucus has been with Mike Johnson. The other thing is
- 7:51Speaker 2: I'm hoping we don't have as narrow a majority as
- 7:54Speaker 2: Johnson had because that you know.
- 7:56Speaker 1: Three votes, But you know King Jefferies needs two hundred
- 8:01Speaker 1: thirty five House seats. You get two hundred thirty five,
- 8:05Speaker 1: then you can you can overcome. Look, this is what
- 8:09Speaker 1: the fact is. There was no Freedom Caucus problems for
- 8:12Speaker 1: the George W. Bush era because they usually had somewhere
- 8:15Speaker 1: between two hundred and thirty five and two hundred and
- 8:16Speaker 1: forty five House members on the Republican majority. You know
- 8:21Speaker 1: that that seems to be the sweet spot of keeping
- 8:24Speaker 1: your your factional politics at back exactly.
- 8:27Speaker 2: And look, though, make no mistakes, these people really don't
- 8:31Speaker 2: like Kakiem Jeffries at the village of the victory Party
- 8:34Speaker 2: lest they were chanting your next at the TV when
- 8:37Speaker 2: haakem came on. This is the first presumably the first
- 8:41Speaker 2: black speaker of the House, and they're trying to get rid.
- 8:44Speaker 1: Of the well, they just ousted the first undocumented immigrant
- 8:47Speaker 1: to make his way to Congress.
- 8:49Speaker 2: True enough, Yeah, okay, I mean this is.
- 8:52Speaker 1: And it's really all over, you know, in him the
- 8:56Speaker 1: I you know, I was told the fireable offense for
- 8:58Speaker 1: Espolot was supporting Cuomo.
- 9:00Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think and I look, I understand.
- 9:04Speaker 1: And is and of course, well Cuomo was sort of
- 9:06Speaker 1: it is sometimes a good word. It can be the
- 9:09Speaker 1: same thing for that. And so let's talk about that
- 9:13Speaker 1: a little bit. Because I accept the premise that mom
- 9:17Speaker 1: Donnie won on affordability in twenty twenty five, right, And
- 9:20Speaker 1: I think that is a fact, okay. And I think
- 9:22Speaker 1: he won because he made a great point about the
- 9:25Speaker 1: price of falafel on the street vendors. Okay, I genuinely
- 9:29Speaker 1: believe that this is a he was talented in connecting
- 9:32Speaker 1: those dots right. That is, this was not an affordability
- 9:37Speaker 1: primary sweep in New York City.
- 9:39Speaker 2: Wouldn't it there? Though it wasn't falafel, it was halal chicken.
- 9:42Speaker 2: Quite different politically.
- 9:44Speaker 1: Well, he was also talking about falafel, but he made
- 9:46Speaker 1: it the falafel bender. But yes, he also had to
- 9:49Speaker 1: look they were both brilliant. Those things went viral. I mean,
- 9:52Speaker 1: you know, you and I both have seen them. And
- 9:54Speaker 1: I'm not exactly a purveyor of street food in New
- 9:56Speaker 1: York City, but Tuesday night there was these were one
- 10:04Speaker 1: This was a one issue litmus test, and it's I
- 10:10Speaker 1: have never felt more autherized as a Jewish American than
- 10:15Speaker 1: I do this morning.
- 10:16Speaker 2: Shame.
- 10:17Speaker 1: And it is a bizarre feeling because this is stuff
- 10:21Speaker 1: my mother told me about and I didn't, you know, yeah, yeah,
- 10:24Speaker 1: that's the fifties, mom, And this feels like a different situation.
- 10:29Speaker 1: And what's frustrating is, you know, I'm old enough to
- 10:32Speaker 1: remember when there was people on the left were criticizing
- 10:35Speaker 1: Donald Trump for otherizing people. I don't see how to
- 10:39Speaker 1: you know, this is the goal to chase Jewish Democrats
- 10:44Speaker 1: out of the party.
- 10:46Speaker 2: It appears to be for some of these people, and
- 10:49Speaker 2: it's pretty effective. I mean, I heard this morning.
- 10:53Speaker 1: I don't I believe just the same way. I don't
- 10:55Speaker 1: believe every MEGA supporter is a racist, and I don't
- 10:57Speaker 1: believe every supporter is an anti semi right. But they
- 11:03Speaker 1: seemed to be making common cause with some of these folks.
- 11:06Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, look, the President had dinner with Nick
- 11:09Speaker 2: foint Is. He's a Nazi. You know that's bad. So
- 11:13Speaker 2: there's they are making common cause on that side. But
- 11:15Speaker 2: on our side things are getting pretty ugly. And the
- 11:20Speaker 2: stuff that was happening to Dan Goldman, I'm sure you
- 11:22Speaker 2: read about that New York coffee shop. That was, I mean,
- 11:27Speaker 2: just the grossest anti semitism.
- 11:30Speaker 1: I imagine if somebody did that to somebody who was
- 11:33Speaker 1: wearing a hit job, there'd be a lot more outrage
- 11:37Speaker 1: from the never.
- 11:40Speaker 2: From space.
- 11:42Speaker 1: I appreciate that Mom, Donnie said something, but it was
- 11:45Speaker 1: pretty pretty. It was sort of like, you know, you
- 11:50Speaker 1: shouldn't have gotten caught doing it. It felt exactly rather
- 11:52Speaker 1: than a it was wrong, and it's wrong, but truly yeah.
- 11:57Speaker 2: I mean, you and I both grew up in America,
- 11:59Speaker 2: where antisemitism basically didn't exist for a long time. It's
- 12:02Speaker 2: like the only period in human history since Abraham in
- 12:06Speaker 2: the West that there's been none, and we got used
- 12:10Speaker 2: to it. And it's very hard to see this and
- 12:12Speaker 2: look to your point. There's a lot of people on
- 12:15Speaker 2: the left who are and a lot of Jews who
- 12:18Speaker 2: are deeply and genuinely of the view that Israel has
- 12:22Speaker 2: been acting horribly, and I am among them. But the
- 12:26Speaker 2: way that gets expressed by the farthest left reaches of
- 12:29Speaker 2: the of the party and of the DSA really does
- 12:33Speaker 2: move into anti Semitism, and it's causing an enormous rupture.
- 12:40Speaker 2: The number of Jews this morning who were texting me
- 12:43Speaker 2: saying the same thing you said, You know, it's a lot.
- 12:48Speaker 2: I believe ultimately that we can contain this. I don't
- 12:54Speaker 2: think that anti Semitism is going to kind of eat
- 12:56Speaker 2: the Democratic Party the way they meet the Labor Party
- 12:59Speaker 2: for many years under Jeremy Corbyn in Britain, but I
- 13:03Speaker 2: think we have to address it aggressively.
- 13:07Speaker 1: John Bayner said the same thing. Mitch McConnell said the
- 13:11Speaker 1: same thing. True, Ye, when you see I want to
- 13:15Speaker 1: unpack this in three different buckets. First, let's unpack. Why
- 13:20Speaker 1: is there an appetite for this, Well, there's an appetite
- 13:23Speaker 1: because there's a bunch of fed up Democrats that think
- 13:26Speaker 1: the Democratic Party has been feckless. Yes, they're not wrong, Matt.
- 13:31Speaker 1: So it is the reason the DSA is getting traction
- 13:36Speaker 1: is because the establishment wing of the Democratic Party has
- 13:41Speaker 1: really screwed this up, right. And it goes back, arguably
- 13:45Speaker 1: to the decision to rally around Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen.
- 13:48Speaker 1: And I say this in that I think a faction
- 13:52Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party thought that the Obama victory meant
- 13:55Speaker 1: the Clinton wing was dormant and dead, and then he
- 13:59Speaker 1: came and went quote unquote establishment. It opened the door
- 14:04Speaker 1: for Bernie and of course the way Ron Paul remade
- 14:08Speaker 1: the Republican Party before people realized it, and then Mega
- 14:11Speaker 1: came in and essentially took it to another level. That's
- 14:16Speaker 1: what's been happening at state central committees, right. And this
- 14:20Speaker 1: is the thing I'm hearing what you're saying. I think
- 14:24Speaker 1: we can contain it. I heard this before. But guess what,
- 14:27Speaker 1: by the time you realize this has taken place, it
- 14:32Speaker 1: was Ron Paul forces who became MAGA that were already
- 14:35Speaker 1: in charge of the state parties, and so Donald Trump
- 14:37Speaker 1: already had a network, and the same thing's been happening
- 14:42Speaker 1: with the DSA and the progressive left. They have done
- 14:45Speaker 1: the hard work of getting onto local party committees, getting
- 14:50Speaker 1: onto the state central committee. I'm not sure this is
- 14:54Speaker 1: as easy to contain as you say.
- 14:56Speaker 2: Well, I don't think it's easy at all. I just
- 14:58Speaker 2: want to be clear about this. This is a I problem.
- 15:01Speaker 2: And there have been efforts at the local level in
- 15:04Speaker 2: cities all over the country, in Pittsburgh and Chicago and
- 15:07Speaker 2: New York and San Francisco to kind of combat the
- 15:12Speaker 2: rise of the DSA. I think a few things are
- 15:15Speaker 2: different than what happened with Paul and the Tea Party
- 15:17Speaker 2: and ultimately with Trump. First of all, in places where
- 15:21Speaker 2: the far left is governing, they become deeply unpopular really fast.
- 15:26Speaker 2: So this happened in San Francisco, where they elected a
- 15:29Speaker 2: very far left mayor and d DA they basically decriminalized shoplifting.
- 15:35Speaker 2: Not surprisingly, the city kind of fell apart, and then
- 15:39Speaker 2: both of them were recalled, along with a bunch of
- 15:42Speaker 2: crazy school board members that were trying to rename Abraham
- 15:44Speaker 2: Lincoln Elementary School, and now the city's doing much better.
- 15:48Speaker 2: And what you saw this cycle in San Francisco was
- 15:52Speaker 2: a very far left guy psych Chalker Party lost pretty
- 15:56Speaker 2: big in a congression race to replace Nancy Pelosi to
- 16:00Speaker 2: much more mainstream Democrats. So there has been a reaction
- 16:04Speaker 2: even in a place like San Francisco to their bad governance.
- 16:08Speaker 2: That's happening in Chicago, where the mayor who's very far
- 16:11Speaker 2: left is like a twenty percent approval rating. And so
- 16:15Speaker 2: I think Chicago is an.
- 16:16Speaker 1: Interesting example because you know, Lauri Lightfoot was elected as
- 16:21Speaker 1: a left wing alternative to Ram and then the left said, no,
- 16:25Speaker 1: you're too mainstream, and wait for even further right. And
- 16:29Speaker 1: you know, I remember Rom saying to me, he goes,
- 16:33Speaker 1: I think they'll miss me eventually. And the irony is,
- 16:37Speaker 1: I think he's right.
- 16:38Speaker 2: You know, totally.
- 16:39Speaker 1: But it is one of those I believe. And this
- 16:42Speaker 1: is why I think we're headed for probably two or
- 16:45Speaker 1: three more one term presidents. Is I think the progressive
- 16:49Speaker 1: left looks at the maga right and says, God damn it,
- 16:51Speaker 1: they got a chance to govern. We want our chance
- 16:53Speaker 1: to govern. And rather than just being part of a
- 16:57Speaker 1: winning coalition like they were with Obama, they were part
- 17:01Speaker 1: of the coalition, but they weren't the governing force of
- 17:03Speaker 1: the coalition, and I think they look at what Mega
- 17:07Speaker 1: happened and said, you know, why compromise.
- 17:11Speaker 2: I'm sure they do. But let me give you two
- 17:12Speaker 2: other reasons why I think they're not going to achieve that.
- 17:15Speaker 2: One is, our electorate is different than theirs. At the
- 17:18Speaker 2: national level. Obviously, in places like you know, New York City,
- 17:23Speaker 2: the electorate gets pretty far left. But if you look
- 17:26Speaker 2: at the people that we have nominated for presence is
- 17:29Speaker 2: nineteen ninety two. I mean every single one of them.
- 17:32Speaker 2: You could quibble about John Kerry, but every one of
- 17:35Speaker 2: them have been mainstream, very kind of moderate center left candidates.
- 17:41Speaker 2: So and our electorate always is looking to see, like
- 17:45Speaker 2: we're very pundent oriented voters. When it comes to nomination,
- 17:50Speaker 2: it's like, which of these guys beats the Republicans? I
- 17:52Speaker 2: want that. I know.
- 17:53Speaker 1: I've always said Democrats care about electability, but they don't know.
- 17:57Speaker 1: I always say, well, what's electability? Well, whatever whoever I
- 18:01Speaker 1: think can win, But it is sort of it's very subjective.
- 18:05Speaker 2: There is no subjective. In fact, I once watched a
- 18:08Speaker 2: focus group in Iowa where guys are like, well, I
- 18:09Speaker 2: think the average voter thinks this way. I was like, dude,
- 18:12Speaker 2: you're in a focus group in Iowa, like you are it.
- 18:15Speaker 2: You're supposed to be the telling you're average voter.
- 18:18Speaker 1: Right.
- 18:19Speaker 2: And then the other difference, and this is technical but important,
- 18:22Speaker 2: is the way that we nominate people is very different
- 18:25Speaker 2: than the way the Republicans do. They've got winner take
- 18:27Speaker 2: all primaries and so and this is actually what could
- 18:31Speaker 2: screw us in Michigan and Michigan Senate race, which is
- 18:33Speaker 2: obviously a winner take all.
- 18:34Speaker 1: Forty right, thirty eight to forty percent can win. Yeah,
- 18:38Speaker 1: a plurality, and that's what Trump did. He wrote a
- 18:41Speaker 1: thirty five percent plurality to victory. In our presidential primaries
- 18:45Speaker 1: doesn't work that way. It's it's proportional, and you've got
- 18:49Speaker 1: to win fifteen percent of a given spe to get
- 18:51Speaker 1: any delegates.
- 18:52Speaker 2: And that matters a lot. And now that we've gotten
- 18:56Speaker 2: rid of all of our caucuses. And by the way,
- 18:58Speaker 2: Bernie when he ran both times, he won all the
- 19:01Speaker 2: caucuses and lost most of the primaries because caucuses are
- 19:06Speaker 2: good for activist candidates who people come out and vote
- 19:11Speaker 2: for four hours. But with our primary system and the
- 19:14Speaker 2: proportional delegate allocation. You've got to be much broader, and
- 19:19Speaker 2: it's the imperative is to appeal to a much broader
- 19:22Speaker 2: set of voters. And so I think it's just really
- 19:25Speaker 2: hard to hijack the Democratic collector the way that Trump did.
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- 21:22Speaker 1: for help, you can visit Gamblinghelplinema dot org. You can
- 21:27Speaker 1: call eight hundred three two seven five zero five zero.
- 21:30Speaker 1: In Massachusetts, you can call one eight seven seven eight
- 21:33Speaker 1: Hope and Why, or you can simply text Hope and
- 21:37Speaker 1: Why New York in order to get some help with
- 21:41Speaker 1: any gambling concerns. Finally, you can also call one eight
- 21:44Speaker 1: seven seven seven seven zero seven eight six seven if
- 21:47Speaker 1: you're in Louisiana. I think I agree with you here
- 21:55Speaker 1: and I say I think because I go back to
- 21:59Speaker 1: the other aspect of this, and that is that the
- 22:02Speaker 1: insider you know, the insider lane of the Democratic Party
- 22:07Speaker 1: I think has gotten a lot more progressive. And I
- 22:10Speaker 1: think that you have a lot You're going to have
- 22:14Speaker 1: people on central committees that are much further to the
- 22:17Speaker 1: left than what we've seen over the last twenty five
- 22:22Speaker 1: thirty years. We'll see, you know. I mean, look, I
- 22:26Speaker 1: go back. You and I are both too young for this.
- 22:30Speaker 1: But the last time the Democratic Party at a moment
- 22:32Speaker 1: like this was the McGovern sort of revolution, if you will,
- 22:37Speaker 1: And I can make an argument right, and the McGovern
- 22:39Speaker 1: revolution takes over the party in seventy two, and essentially
- 22:45Speaker 1: the Democrats are flailing from seventy two to ninety two, Right,
- 22:49Speaker 1: they win one national election. Yeah, they hold on to
- 22:53Speaker 1: the House that entire time. But it was watching, you know,
- 22:58Speaker 1: essentially the Southern Caucus because basically Reagan Democrats. You know,
- 23:04Speaker 1: it essentially took a generation before the party recovered from
- 23:11Speaker 1: this sort of liberal revolution, the mcgoverning liberal revolution. You know,
- 23:17Speaker 1: you know, I accept the premise that eventually governing will
- 23:21Speaker 1: get in, that will probably be the thing that eventually
- 23:26Speaker 1: stops this moment. But it took twenty years the last
- 23:29Speaker 1: time this happened for the Democrats to recover.
- 23:32Speaker 2: And look, as you know, much depends on whether a
- 23:35Speaker 2: charismatic leader comes along or doesn't. So in those twenty years,
- 23:40Speaker 2: we had no charismatic leaders. I mean, Jimmy Carter had
- 23:44Speaker 2: a certain weirdo charisma in seventy six, but then it
- 23:46Speaker 2: was gone. And then we had Mondale and Decaucus or
- 23:51Speaker 2: you know, my first boss in politics.
- 23:54Speaker 1: And yeah, I think we all wonder what a Gary
- 23:57Speaker 1: Hart would have been like in eighty four exactly. I mean,
- 23:59Speaker 1: it would have probably been certainly more competitive.
- 24:03Speaker 2: Totally, and parties are forged in the image of their nominees.
- 24:08Speaker 2: At the moment, we have no leader and we're not
- 24:10Speaker 2: going to have a leader for.
- 24:10Speaker 1: A long time.
- 24:12Speaker 2: But just think about what happened to the Republicans after
- 24:14Speaker 2: twenty twelve. They Ronnie loses, they do their their autopsy,
- 24:18Speaker 2: They're like, we need to be nicer to immigrants. Steve
- 24:21Speaker 2: Bannon's like, no, we need to go to the exact
- 24:23Speaker 2: opposite direction. He Trump comes along, and then the party
- 24:28Speaker 2: goes one hundred and eighty degrees the opposite way. And
- 24:31Speaker 2: now no one has ever forged a party in their
- 24:34Speaker 2: images as dramatically as he has, at least not modern times.
- 24:38Speaker 2: But every party is defined by their nominee, and ours
- 24:44Speaker 2: will be too. And if we nominate the right person
- 24:47Speaker 2: and they have a degree of charisma that you know,
- 24:49Speaker 2: we really need, then I really don't think the mcgovernment
- 24:53Speaker 2: thing is going to happen to us. But if we
- 24:56Speaker 2: don't and nominate somebody without it, then it could.
- 24:59Speaker 1: Why is is this getting so much traction in New
- 25:01Speaker 1: York City? In New York City, Yeah, why is this
- 25:05Speaker 1: anti Israel litmus test? Which clearly is the most animating issue?
- 25:10Speaker 1: You know, when AOC won't beat Joe Crawley the Green
- 25:13Speaker 1: New Deal, it was a climate focused and yes, affordability
- 25:17Speaker 1: but it was really climate right driven. You know, I
- 25:20Speaker 1: don't hear climate anymore. Right. It is one issue that
- 25:24Speaker 1: seems to unite the progressive left in New York, which
- 25:27Speaker 1: is bashing Israel, which quickly bashing Israel quickly becomes to
- 25:32Speaker 1: bashing Jews pretty fast.
- 25:33Speaker 2: Does yeah? I mean to your point, the Sunrise movement
- 25:36Speaker 2: now only cares about Israel like that is their only thing,
- 25:40Speaker 2: and they're like a climate change group. But I think
- 25:43Speaker 2: the reason, there's two big reasons. One is the people
- 25:47Speaker 2: that voted for these candidates are tend to be and
- 25:50Speaker 2: the data on this from exepols Yestorday was very clear.
- 25:54Speaker 2: Like in the Cheblier race, she won young, ight, more educated,
- 26:02Speaker 2: and higher income people and she lost black and Hispanic
- 26:07Speaker 2: folks without college degrees and with lower incomes. So the
- 26:11Speaker 2: young white people are kind of animated by this unicause
- 26:16Speaker 2: which is Gaza, and that has become a virtue signaling device.
- 26:24Speaker 2: If you are in favor of Israel, you are bad.
- 26:29Speaker 2: And if you are in favor of the Palestinian.
- 26:30Speaker 1: Why isn't this Why isn't the leaguers the cause celeb
- 26:35Speaker 1: That's a great question.
- 26:36Speaker 2: There are a million.
- 26:38Speaker 1: Why isn't it the right. Why isn't it in Africa?
- 26:41Speaker 1: Why is it just this cause I don't you know
- 26:47Speaker 1: where I'm I would love a better explanation.
- 26:51Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean what they say is because they are
- 26:54Speaker 2: at US ally. We give them three billion dollars a
- 26:56Speaker 2: year in military aid. They are our closest in the region,
- 27:01Speaker 2: and there we should expect that they act in ways
- 27:06Speaker 2: that are consistent with our values. And China is not
- 27:09Speaker 2: an ally and now there is you know, Burma or
- 27:12Speaker 2: Sudan or at these other places. It's not an insane argument.
- 27:16Speaker 2: And I would I would positive that Israel is acting
- 27:18Speaker 2: really really badly, but and she would agree with this.
- 27:23Speaker 2: I loathe the current US government, but I do not
- 27:26Speaker 2: do not load the United States. I love the United States.
- 27:29Speaker 2: I load the net and Yahoo government, but I do
- 27:31Speaker 2: not load Israel. I think the problem is a lot
- 27:34Speaker 2: of these young people tend not to be able to
- 27:36Speaker 2: see that distinction.
- 27:38Speaker 1: Well, and this gets and I don't want to sound
- 27:40Speaker 1: like an old guy ranting at cloud, but I you know,
- 27:44Speaker 1: it's interesting. I had an interview that's on my podcast
- 27:48Speaker 1: right now with the mayor of Oklahoma City, David Hole.
- 27:53Speaker 1: And he's a friend and he he is a big
- 27:57Speaker 1: advocate of nonpartisan primaries. And you know, obviously, you know
- 28:02Speaker 1: a mayor. Most mayors get elected in nonpartisan primaries, and
- 28:06Speaker 1: those that do get elected in non partisan primaries tend
- 28:08Speaker 1: to get more shit done. That's just you know, because
- 28:11Speaker 1: they have a larger constitution. I mean, I've always said
- 28:13Speaker 1: I saw it in my own Carlos Imenez is a
- 28:16Speaker 1: congressman from from Miami, was the mayor of the county
- 28:19Speaker 1: before he was a member of Congress. And he was
- 28:21Speaker 1: a mayor of the county, I knew he was Republican,
- 28:24Speaker 1: but he didn't. He didn't govern his politics didn't govern him.
- 28:27Speaker 1: He let he knew what his constituency was pretty purple,
- 28:30Speaker 1: and he governed that way. When he became a member
- 28:33Speaker 1: of Congress, he was he didn't certify that the twenty
- 28:36Speaker 1: twenty election, and it shocked me because I was like, wow,
- 28:39Speaker 1: that that isn't the way he governed his mayor. But
- 28:41Speaker 1: he had run in a very partisan Republican primary, right,
- 28:45Speaker 1: So I do think sometimes you govern towards the constituents
- 28:48Speaker 1: that elect you and how you get elected, which is
- 28:51Speaker 1: why I think open primaries. You know, if we want
- 28:53Speaker 1: to get rid of polarization. I think primaries are start.
- 28:57Speaker 1: But here's the issue that I was speaking with with
- 28:59Speaker 1: Mayor Whole about. He did an entire speech about pluralism,
- 29:05Speaker 1: and it struck me that here's a word that I'm
- 29:08Speaker 1: guessing a lot of people under the age of forty
- 29:10Speaker 1: half have to look up yep. And it's because we
- 29:14Speaker 1: have allowed we do not you know when we talk
- 29:16Speaker 1: about Yellen. You know, And again I know this is
- 29:19Speaker 1: going to it's not that we don't teach civics. We
- 29:22Speaker 1: don't teach the American political system, yes, and the history
- 29:27Speaker 1: of it. And and it's I think there's two reasons
- 29:32Speaker 1: for it. One is I accept I think that to
- 29:39Speaker 1: graduate high school or to get into college, we have
- 29:42Speaker 1: said there's only two skills that matter are English and math.
- 29:48Speaker 1: And so if you're and then in fact you get
- 29:51Speaker 1: funding at local schools based on how well your kids
- 29:55Speaker 1: perform on a test that's mostly about English and math.
- 30:00Speaker 1: There is no requirement, you know, on civics to either
- 30:05Speaker 1: get into college or to graduate high school. So what
- 30:08Speaker 1: do you think ends up happening? Right, Your incentive structure
- 30:11Speaker 1: is your best teachers, if you're a principal, if your
- 30:14Speaker 1: best teacher is a government teacher. You're like, man, I'm
- 30:16Speaker 1: wasting that teacher because my funding is based on how
- 30:19Speaker 1: well these students do on this test. So should we
- 30:24Speaker 1: be surprised that the first generation where we stopped teaching
- 30:27Speaker 1: civics and prioritizing it in our schools, which was essentially
- 30:32Speaker 1: the kids that started going to grade school from nineteen
- 30:34Speaker 1: ninety two forward, is powering this revolution and doesn't fully
- 30:39Speaker 1: understand democratic pluralism and that the American system is different
- 30:45Speaker 1: for a reason.
- 30:47Speaker 2: Oh, one hundred percent. And obviously this is the generation
- 30:52Speaker 2: that's been raised on social media, where you live in
- 30:55Speaker 2: your own epistemic bubble. All you're hearing are people that
- 30:58Speaker 2: agree with you. Absolutely started doing anything at all about news,
- 31:01Speaker 2: and it's all absolutes. It's one hundred percent, and if
- 31:05Speaker 2: you are outside of that, you are bad. Last week
- 31:09Speaker 2: I did Brett Bear Show on Fox and just before
- 31:13Speaker 2: us was Fred Ryan from the Reagan Center, and he
- 31:17Speaker 2: was talking about this new thing. They have the Civility Handbook,
- 31:19Speaker 2: which is how to talk to people with whom you disagree,
- 31:22Speaker 2: and I actually ordered a bunch of them for us
- 31:24Speaker 2: because we have got to figure out how to do
- 31:27Speaker 2: this again and it has to become a bipartisan effort
- 31:32Speaker 2: to figure out how to talk to people with whom
- 31:34Speaker 2: we disagree. Now, you can't set our own party.
- 31:37Speaker 1: And it sounds you know, the problem is every time
- 31:40Speaker 1: someone and you know, you got both of us are
- 31:42Speaker 1: now and we're middle aged, so we just sound like
- 31:44Speaker 1: cranky old people, and you know it is. But we
- 31:49Speaker 1: did let this lapse, right, you know, and with it again,
- 31:53Speaker 1: it was with good intentions, right, well, like, look the
- 31:55Speaker 1: thing you the most important skills you need to get
- 31:58Speaker 1: a good job and get into college or this. You know,
- 32:02Speaker 1: every other country around the world teaches their political system
- 32:05Speaker 1: in a more mandatory way than we do. Yeah, and
- 32:09Speaker 1: you know, I feel like when we had you know,
- 32:13Speaker 1: it's funny again, you and I grew up at the
- 32:17Speaker 1: late stage Cold War, so there was an ideological fight
- 32:21Speaker 1: we were having. So that's why there was an emphasis
- 32:25Speaker 1: on democracy and pluralism in this country. When we won
- 32:29Speaker 1: the fight, we kind of said, all right, we don't
- 32:31Speaker 1: need to do this anymore. And I wonder if that
- 32:35Speaker 1: if that is why we have that, and it looked
- 32:38Speaker 1: I think it explains why Latino voters are for the
- 32:40Speaker 1: most part, are not going down this socialism path, and
- 32:43Speaker 1: we've seen it because of what socialism is represented in
- 32:49Speaker 1: Latin America.
- 32:50Speaker 2: Yeah. In fact, to that point, one of the groups
- 32:53Speaker 2: that I was talking about earlier, the local groups as
- 32:57Speaker 2: a group in Pittsburgh called the Beacon Coalition, and they're
- 33:00Speaker 2: a group of Jews that are fighting back against what
- 33:03Speaker 2: the is anti Semitism on the city council there in
- 33:06Speaker 2: the mayor and they got rid of a couple of
- 33:07Speaker 2: those folks and they have a great line. They said,
- 33:09Speaker 2: when you think about the DSA and socialism of that type,
- 33:13Speaker 2: don't think Norway, think Cuba, you know, like that is
- 33:17Speaker 2: what they are. The Norwegian kind of type of Nordic
- 33:22Speaker 2: socialism is basically high tax as they get you good
- 33:26Speaker 2: serve public.
- 33:27Speaker 1: So it's European liberalism. It's not socialism, right because it
- 33:31Speaker 1: is still capitalism, totally capitalism. Rather, what these guys are
- 33:36Speaker 1: saying is seize the means of production. And more importantly,
- 33:41Speaker 1: to your point, be illiberal. Do not illiberal in the
- 33:46Speaker 1: classical sense.
- 33:47Speaker 2: Do not allow debate. If you cannot come into their
- 33:52Speaker 2: space and say we should have a discussion about Israel.
- 33:56Speaker 2: If you are not wholly on their page, you are
- 34:00Speaker 2: you are excluded from the debate. And that is deeply
- 34:03Speaker 2: a liberal point of view.
- 34:06Speaker 1: So let me go back to why the Democratic Party
- 34:09Speaker 1: is so vulnerable to this movement. It has been the leader.
- 34:14Speaker 1: It has been a failure since twenty sixty, right, it
- 34:17Speaker 1: is not successfully stood up to Trump. And you know,
- 34:21Speaker 1: I you know, I'm going to try to put my
- 34:27Speaker 1: head in where the progresses are. We accepted the premise
- 34:30Speaker 1: that Biden was the best idea, So we accepted the
- 34:34Speaker 1: premise we compromise. Right, it's the same thing I heard
- 34:36Speaker 1: from the right about John McCaine mc romney, and you're lost.
- 34:42Speaker 1: And now it's like, you know, so, you know, do
- 34:49Speaker 1: you really think this is all about an inability to
- 34:51Speaker 1: have a good messenger?
- 34:54Speaker 2: Look, there is real truth to the idea that we
- 34:57Speaker 2: have failed as a party, and I think there's a
- 35:01Speaker 2: lot of blame to go around, including I mean Senator
- 35:04Speaker 2: Luck Donald.
- 35:06Speaker 1: The fact that the voters decided a second term of
- 35:08Speaker 1: Donald Trump was preferable is to me the most damning
- 35:14Speaker 1: aspect of the legacy of Joe Biden. Right. For me,
- 35:17Speaker 1: Joe Biden's legacy will forever be defined by his inability
- 35:22Speaker 1: to help the country a better president turns the page.
- 35:26Speaker 1: We don't go backwards in this country unless you're a
- 35:29Speaker 1: total and complete failure as a president. And I'm sorry
- 35:33Speaker 1: the country chose to go backward. We never go backward
- 35:36Speaker 1: to a president we fired and the fact that we did.
- 35:40Speaker 1: How is this not an indictment of the establishment wing
- 35:44Speaker 1: of the party.
- 35:45Speaker 2: Well, it's an indictment of Bidenism. But let's talk about
- 35:49Speaker 2: what that means. I think two big things to keep
- 35:53Speaker 2: in mind about what Americans were rejecting three around Bidenism.
- 35:58Speaker 2: One will I will accept this oppasment wings failure around
- 36:01Speaker 2: his age. Obviously, you've talked about that endlessly. That's obvious.
- 36:05Speaker 2: There's two others. One is Joe Biden bragged and Bernie
- 36:10Speaker 2: Sanders touted the idea that he was the most progressive
- 36:13Speaker 2: president since FDR now hed.
- 36:16Speaker 1: The joke was Joe Biden beat Elizabeth Warren for the
- 36:19Speaker 1: nomination and she won the staff.
- 36:21Speaker 2: One hundred percent, and she did, and that meant she
- 36:25Speaker 2: was Dave the one. He signed an EO on the
- 36:28Speaker 2: first day that said we are not going to enforce
- 36:30Speaker 2: the immigration laws inside the country. And it took two
- 36:32Speaker 2: and a half years to control the border, and he
- 36:34Speaker 2: did a bunch of things like student loan forgiveness that
- 36:36Speaker 2: were driven by the left and were terrible politics. And
- 36:40Speaker 2: so that's number one that they rejected his kind of
- 36:44Speaker 2: progressivism that they didn't that voters didn't like. And number
- 36:47Speaker 2: two is this kind of woke caricature. I'm not blaming
- 36:53Speaker 2: this entirely and Joe Biden himself, but the party shifted
- 36:57Speaker 2: so sharply in that direction on culture issue after twenty
- 37:01Speaker 2: twenty that rather than you know, Tim Walls trying to
- 37:05Speaker 2: make the case that they were the weird ones, they
- 37:08Speaker 2: thought we were the weird ones. I mean, the exit
- 37:10Speaker 2: polls showed that more people thought that Harris was an
- 37:13Speaker 2: extremist than they thought Donald Trump was an extremist. And
- 37:17Speaker 2: that was in part because a broader brand problem with
- 37:20Speaker 2: the Dumbcraft Party, but it was also a bunch of
- 37:22Speaker 2: things that she didn't said when she ran for president
- 37:24Speaker 2: in twenty nineteen.
- 37:26Speaker 3: Obviously, the well that was look, I've always you know,
- 37:29Speaker 3: it's so funny about you know, the Democratic Party, you know,
- 37:33Speaker 3: was sort of high on its own supply starting at
- 37:36Speaker 3: that June debate.
- 37:38Speaker 1: It is it is the nightmare debate. I hated it.
- 37:41Speaker 1: I had to moderate you know two days back, I mean,
- 37:43Speaker 1: the dumbest formats we could have come up with, and
- 37:47Speaker 1: it was the best version of the dumb format. But
- 37:50Speaker 1: you know, I had a few others. I had a
- 37:53Speaker 1: few other better ideas to try to create bite sized formats,
- 37:56Speaker 1: but you couldn't get the candidates to agree legitiate. I
- 38:00Speaker 1: wanted to do little like fifteen minute for candidate you
- 38:04Speaker 1: know buckets essentially, so that you had an opportunity to
- 38:09Speaker 1: get to know everybody in a smaller setting. But you
- 38:12Speaker 1: know that that was too cifix minded, right, not for television, right,
- 38:16Speaker 1: but either way, that six month period and you can
- 38:20Speaker 1: actually extend it right, June of nineteen through July June
- 38:24Speaker 1: of twenty twenty five to twenty twenty, the Democratic Party
- 38:30Speaker 1: went really far left in its left in its in
- 38:34Speaker 1: its rhetoric, not necessarily in its actual you know actions.
- 38:40Speaker 1: The platform wasn't super lefty and all of that, but
- 38:44Speaker 1: rhetorically the party did go pretty left.
- 38:47Speaker 2: I mean the famous hand raising that was, I mean,
- 38:49Speaker 2: I did you think criminalized the order?
- 38:51Speaker 1: And the irony is I don't. I actually think Joe
- 38:54Speaker 1: Biden didn't hear the question, which is the only reason
- 38:56Speaker 1: why he didn't raise his hand, but maybe.
- 39:01Speaker 2: But yeah, there was all this performative crap and all
- 39:05Speaker 2: of it was very left coded, and that mattered, and
- 39:10Speaker 2: it changed the way people thought about the party. Biden
- 39:12Speaker 2: Olber came in for the general election and he basically
- 39:16Speaker 2: was like, you think I'm a lefty, and that worked
- 39:20Speaker 2: in twenty twenty, but then he immediately became a lefty
- 39:23Speaker 2: and so all this doctor original question. I mean, I
- 39:27Speaker 2: just don't think that Harris's loss can be attributed to
- 39:32Speaker 2: the kind of center left. She did try to modify
- 39:35Speaker 2: her moderate herself when she ran for those one hundred
- 39:38Speaker 2: and seven days, and look, I liked her speech at convention.
- 39:41Speaker 2: I think she did a pretty good job, or she
- 39:43Speaker 2: did the best she could, but she was carrying a
- 39:45Speaker 2: lot of baggage from the administration and from her own run.
- 39:51Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you
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- 41:45Speaker 1: Quints dot com slash chuck use that code. Look. Hubert
- 41:55Speaker 1: Humphrey is one of the more talented politicians in the
- 41:57Speaker 1: history of the Democratic Party. But you know he lost
- 42:00Speaker 1: for the same reason Kamala Harralaw Kamala Harrislask. The president
- 42:04Speaker 1: that he served was unpopular. The president that she served
- 42:09Speaker 1: was unpopular. You know, we don't do in this country
- 42:11Speaker 1: elect vice presidents of unpopular presidents.
- 42:15Speaker 2: We've never done to my knowledge. I mean, I worked
- 42:19Speaker 2: for Al Gore. He was a vice president to a
- 42:20Speaker 2: popular president, right.
- 42:22Speaker 1: But he got punished. He got punished for the character issues.
- 42:26Speaker 1: You know, like, for sure, there's no doubt that five
- 42:29Speaker 1: hundred and thirty eight votes we're get a hold votes. Yeah, yeah,
- 42:35Speaker 1: But for Lewinsky, you know, you know, so it is.
- 42:41Speaker 1: It is really hard to win as a sitting vice
- 42:42Speaker 1: president if your president doesn't have an approval rating over
- 42:45Speaker 1: sixty percent.
- 42:47Speaker 2: Absolutely, so she probably had like nine fatal wounds going
- 42:53Speaker 2: into that election, but one of them was that she
- 42:56Speaker 2: went too far left herself in twenty nineteen. So all
- 42:59Speaker 2: this is to say, we've got to make sure that
- 43:03Speaker 2: our field does not impete that mistake.
- 43:05Speaker 1: Okay, but you know, it's funny now, and I guess
- 43:07Speaker 1: that's the question. Michigan Centate primary is a great example
- 43:10Speaker 1: of this. Yeah, so it's funny how this primary is
- 43:16Speaker 1: sort of already been a roller coaster and we still
- 43:20Speaker 1: got about six weeks before voting. Yes, so it first
- 43:24Speaker 1: starts in Hailey Stevens looks like she's going to be
- 43:27Speaker 1: you know, she starts out as the heavy favorite. It's
- 43:29Speaker 1: Alyssa slock and two points. Oh okay, we think we
- 43:32Speaker 1: know where this is going. And Mallory mcmarrow had her
- 43:35Speaker 1: viral moment and all this stuff. So at first it
- 43:38Speaker 1: looked like Hailey Stevens. Then you saw the sort of
- 43:40Speaker 1: you know, the pylon on her, the establishment anger, the
- 43:44Speaker 1: apac anger, and it's like, okay, you saw and then
- 43:47Speaker 1: it became this interesting three way race, and you had
- 43:50Speaker 1: three candidates that perhaps we're representing three distinct factions of
- 43:56Speaker 1: the party at the moment. You had your progressive Bernie
- 43:59Speaker 1: Sanders wing. You had your establishment call it the Chuck
- 44:02Speaker 1: Schumer leadership wing. And then you had what Mallory McMorrow
- 44:06Speaker 1: was trying to do, which is straddle the two sides.
- 44:10Speaker 1: And for a bit of time it looked like the
- 44:14Speaker 1: establishment wing was going, you know what, Stevens can't win,
- 44:17Speaker 1: screw it, let's go with McMorrow, And there was a
- 44:20Speaker 1: little bit of flirtation with her. She had her own
- 44:23Speaker 1: I think my guess is some APO people dropped some
- 44:26Speaker 1: of that stuff and from the Stevens world and McMorrow, right,
- 44:29Speaker 1: McMorrow suddenly became looked less attractive to that wing of
- 44:33Speaker 1: the party. So now you see McMorrow, the person trying
- 44:37Speaker 1: to straddle the two wings is the one that's shrinking
- 44:40Speaker 1: and the two that are growing. Really, Bill say it
- 44:43Speaker 1: is growing more? Is that if you're a change candidate,
- 44:48Speaker 1: here's Saley Stephens problem. She's on the wrong side of change,
- 44:53Speaker 1: perhaps a duel site. She's running to be Gary Peters
- 44:58Speaker 1: heir apparent right, it is not a change, and I
- 45:02Speaker 1: think that's what makes this extraordinarily difficult where at least,
- 45:07Speaker 1: and that's why for a while I thought McMorrow frankly
- 45:10Speaker 1: was the best. If you were concerned about Abdul al Sayed,
- 45:12Speaker 1: I would have been like, you're better off supporting McMorrow
- 45:15Speaker 1: because she might be able to win some progressives. But
- 45:18Speaker 1: what is going to be you know, Kamala Harris is
- 45:22Speaker 1: going to look twenty nineteen is going to look moderate
- 45:24Speaker 1: compared to what the democractocratic electorate may be demanding come
- 45:28Speaker 1: twenty twenty seven and twenty twenty eight.
- 45:30Speaker 2: Depends on what you mean by the Democratic electorate. So
- 45:33Speaker 2: first of all, much will depend on the map that
- 45:35Speaker 2: we don't know yet, but presumably it'll be some version
- 45:39Speaker 2: of New Hampshire. Michigan goes first. Do you think you
- 45:42Speaker 2: want that?
- 45:42Speaker 1: Now?
- 45:43Speaker 2: I don't think it'll go first, but.
- 45:45Speaker 1: You want Michigan in the early window. You think this
- 45:47Speaker 1: is a good idea for the Democratic mine.
- 45:49Speaker 2: It's a good question, And look what's happening there is scary.
- 45:53Speaker 2: I will say the three way nature of the race
- 45:57Speaker 2: is helping. I'll they'll say i'd buy all, you know,
- 46:00Speaker 2: a lot, And there's still a lot undersided. So I
- 46:03Speaker 2: don't if one of them drops out, and I think,
- 46:05Speaker 2: by the way, if by July first one of them
- 46:07Speaker 2: is seriously trailing, that they have an obligation to do
- 46:10Speaker 2: what Pete and Amy did in twenty twenty, which is to.
- 46:13Speaker 1: Bet, that's interesting. I'm I have It's interesting you bring
- 46:19Speaker 1: that up because like three weeks ago, the pressure looked
- 46:23Speaker 1: like it was going to be on Stevens, and now
- 46:24Speaker 1: it looks like the pressure is going to be on.
- 46:26Speaker 2: My flipt Yeah, and look, I'd be fine with either room.
- 46:30Speaker 2: But the polling does show that Stevens is doing better now,
- 46:33Speaker 2: so and that may be driven by money, but that's
- 46:36Speaker 2: how politics works, you know, and you just I think
- 46:39Speaker 2: we have to be pretty bloodless about this. So I
- 46:42Speaker 2: don't know what's going to happen in that race. I
- 46:44Speaker 2: don't think they'll say it's lead at the moment, which
- 46:47Speaker 2: is a plurality, is an indication that the Michigan Democratic
- 46:51Speaker 2: Collector has gone completely mad. I don't think that that's
- 46:54Speaker 2: necessarily the case. No.
- 46:55Speaker 1: I think he represents change though, and I don't know
- 46:57Speaker 1: if Hailey Stevens does it mean I understand why his message. Look,
- 47:03Speaker 1: I had him on the pod. He's a very charismatic
- 47:06Speaker 1: oh candidate, he's you know, we had a very thoughtful
- 47:09Speaker 1: debate about the use of the word genocide. I just
- 47:11Speaker 1: find it just like, this is not it, you know,
- 47:15Speaker 1: as I said to him, the minute you say it,
- 47:17Speaker 1: I no longer hear anything else you're saying. Right, it
- 47:20Speaker 1: doesn't feel like a rational debate. You know, it's like
- 47:22Speaker 1: screaming Nazi at somebody, right, Like you know, it's the
- 47:25Speaker 1: Godwin's law. Right. The minute you start comparing somebody to Hitler,
- 47:28Speaker 1: you know, everybody gets their defense mechanisms up, and you
- 47:31Speaker 1: no longer have a You're no longer having reasonable debate.
- 47:34Speaker 1: The minute you drop the left, drops the G word,
- 47:37Speaker 1: it is not to me a serious accusation. It is
- 47:41Speaker 1: more of a a siren song to you know, go
- 47:45Speaker 1: after the Jews. And I know I don't believe that
- 47:48Speaker 1: is what Abdul sai Ed believes. I really don't, Okay,
- 47:52Speaker 1: I don't, but that is what happens when you virtue
- 47:55Speaker 1: signal with that word. But the point is he's you know,
- 47:59Speaker 1: I I I think he can win it two.
- 48:01Speaker 2: A race possibly. Look, you know, he's very good, obviously,
- 48:06Speaker 2: a very charismatic guy like Mamdani was dominant figure. Being
- 48:11Speaker 2: charismatic matters in politics. We'll see. I don't know, however,
- 48:17Speaker 2: I think all of this is quite different than presidential races,
- 48:21Speaker 2: where first of all, you've got to get through South Carolina,
- 48:25Speaker 2: which is the wall that Bernie ran into headfirst in
- 48:28Speaker 2: twenty twenty, and South Carolina voters are predominantly African American
- 48:34Speaker 2: and they are very, very moderate. And by the way,
- 48:39Speaker 2: after South Carolina, as you know, they went on a
- 48:42Speaker 2: Super Tuesday and then they went to Massachusetts and elsewhere
- 48:44Speaker 2: and Joe Biden crushed Sanders and.
- 48:48Speaker 1: Then I don't I mean, Matt, I know what the
- 48:51Speaker 1: day I take your point in the data, I think
- 48:55Speaker 1: there is nothing to learn from twenty twenty primary season
- 48:58Speaker 1: because I don't accept the premise that Biden wins that
- 49:03Speaker 1: nomination without COVID and COVID total nomination or the general
- 49:08Speaker 1: the nomination. And I believe that in the general, but
- 49:11Speaker 1: the nomination, you know it is, COVID was in the ether.
- 49:16Speaker 1: It was at that point when Amy and Pete dropped out,
- 49:20Speaker 1: and it was this sense of, oh my god, South
- 49:23Speaker 1: Carolina's going to probably be the whole ballgame. What if
- 49:25Speaker 1: this is the last primary, and so it became this
- 49:29Speaker 1: and so look, I think in Earth too, with no COVID,
- 49:32Speaker 1: Bernie doesn't get out. Bernie got out out of because
- 49:36Speaker 1: COVID was happening. If there's no COVID, Bernie doesn't get out,
- 49:39Speaker 1: and that's a that's a knife fight convention, and it
- 49:43Speaker 1: might be at a you know, look, I believe that
- 49:47Speaker 1: without COVID it's Pete and Bernie all the way to
- 49:49Speaker 1: the convention, not.
- 49:50Speaker 2: Probably be no way of knowing. The point is, presidential
- 49:55Speaker 2: primaries are completely souy generous every time. This to confirms
- 50:00Speaker 2: your point, like who the hell knows? Like the data
- 50:04Speaker 2: set is small, it's very unique. Every the moment is
- 50:08Speaker 2: unique every time. My deep belief is that there will
- 50:14Speaker 2: be somebody, probably a charismatic person in the super far
- 50:19Speaker 2: left lane. The question is can the person in the
- 50:22Speaker 2: more mainstream lane. And I don't think that means they're
- 50:24Speaker 2: going to be a self identified moderate, They're not going
- 50:26Speaker 2: to moderate on their yard side, just a mainstream candidate.
- 50:30Speaker 2: Will that person be able to run as a change candidate?
- 50:33Speaker 2: Because I think you're totally right. If you're running as
- 50:35Speaker 2: like status quo, you're dead, which is why I think
- 50:38Speaker 2: it's going to be super hard for you know, senators
- 50:42Speaker 2: in particular to do this. But if you're a governor,
- 50:46Speaker 2: you know, and if you're Jos Shapiro, at leave aside
- 50:49Speaker 2: the Israel thing for a second. But if you're josh Bill, kay, okay,
- 50:53Speaker 2: but just per second. I just kicked ass and the
- 50:56Speaker 2: most important general elections state in the nation. I guess
- 51:00Speaker 2: shit done. I fixed ninety five and you know, six
- 51:03Speaker 2: minutes that and I'm going to come into Washington and
- 51:08Speaker 2: do what I did in the ninety five thing, which
- 51:10Speaker 2: is you know, they told me it was going to
- 51:12Speaker 2: take three months, and I said, you have three days.
- 51:15Speaker 2: That's going to be a pretty powerful message. Now, Shapiro
- 51:19Speaker 2: himself does have to grapple with the Israel question, and
- 51:22Speaker 2: we don't know what that will look like. But I
- 51:24Speaker 2: will say this, remember that God willing men and Yahoo
- 51:28Speaker 2: will be gone by that and that could change the dynamic.
- 51:33Speaker 1: That is an important point. I agree with that. I
- 51:36Speaker 1: think Net. Look, I've always said, you know, the reason
- 51:39Speaker 1: the Democratic parties divided on Israel is because bb Net now,
- 51:43Speaker 1: who hated Barack Obama, and he played politics and he
- 51:48Speaker 1: essentially destroyed the bipartisan goodwill that Israel had engendered in
- 51:56Speaker 1: this country utterly by deciding to become a part of
- 52:00Speaker 1: hack right. BBI became a partisan hack because he got
- 52:04Speaker 1: convinced by one major donor that it was the right
- 52:07Speaker 1: move and you know, the Agelsen's, and it was. It
- 52:11Speaker 1: has been what they what they have done, is successfully
- 52:16Speaker 1: isolated Israel around the world. It is been the biggest
- 52:19Speaker 1: political strategic mistake in the history of Israel was BB's
- 52:23Speaker 1: decision to become a partisan warrior on behalf of the
- 52:27Speaker 1: Republican Party back and during the Obama And I think
- 52:32Speaker 1: it for a generation of Democrats of a certain age.
- 52:37Speaker 1: This is why it is not lost on me that
- 52:39Speaker 1: essentially you look among Democratic primary voters under the age
- 52:43Speaker 1: of forty five and frankly it's all voters under the
- 52:45Speaker 1: age of thirty five these days, and their views of Israel.
- 52:49Speaker 1: It is I you know, I absolutely believe BB uniquely
- 52:55Speaker 1: has polarized this issue in this country by playing the
- 52:59Speaker 1: politics that he put played in doing the bitty of
- 53:02Speaker 1: his major donors. So I do think if he goes
- 53:06Speaker 1: it might be the relief valve that is necessary.
- 53:09Speaker 2: Yeah, not to the octopus space.
- 53:12Speaker 1: I am worried. I am worried that frankly, Donald Trump
- 53:17Speaker 1: has actually become so unpopular that BB might be able
- 53:22Speaker 1: to do what he does best, which is play the
- 53:24Speaker 1: fear card to survive. Well, nobody else will be tough
- 53:27Speaker 1: enough to take on the Iranians. You know, I'm the
- 53:29Speaker 1: crazy SOB that will bomb the Iranians, and you you know,
- 53:32Speaker 1: the next prime minister won't. And I worry now that
- 53:35Speaker 1: Trump's actually made that political messaging more potentially more successful
- 53:42Speaker 1: for B become the fault.
- 53:44Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, if you think our political system is
- 53:46Speaker 2: a mess.
- 53:47Speaker 1: So I know, I joke. I don't know whether we've
- 53:49Speaker 1: exported Israel's political mess we exported it to them, or
- 53:53Speaker 1: they we've been imported. I mean, you know they are
- 53:56Speaker 1: hopelessly divided. I mean, think about their system. Here's a
- 53:59Speaker 1: g who's got what thirty five percent job approval right right,
- 54:03Speaker 1: who's been able to have a stranglehold. Sounds familiar, right.
- 54:07Speaker 2: Very familiar. And by the way, in addition to all
- 54:09Speaker 2: the things you just mentioned, which I very much agree with,
- 54:12Speaker 2: I traveled in nineteen ninety eight with the then Vice
- 54:15Speaker 2: President Gore to Israel, where we met the Prime Minister
- 54:18Speaker 2: and it was BB net Yahoo in nineteen ninety eight,
- 54:21Speaker 2: like the guy has just been there to goddamn long
- 54:24Speaker 2: and by the kids, it's all they.
- 54:26Speaker 1: The I already is every American president gets to the
- 54:29Speaker 1: point where they tell BB to f off, and it
- 54:31Speaker 1: is exactly like clockwork, w Bush, Bill Clinton, w Obama,
- 54:39Speaker 1: if Trump right by like the If there is one
- 54:43Speaker 1: thing that all of these presidents have in common is
- 54:45Speaker 1: they think BB's an SOB.
- 54:47Speaker 2: They do, Yeah, it does. It's the only thing that
- 54:49Speaker 2: unites them. But and now even Trump. So look, I
- 54:55Speaker 2: think if the Israelis can get their act together and
- 54:58Speaker 2: get rid of him, Look, the next Prime Minister's not
- 55:01Speaker 2: gonna be a liberal. It'll be somebody like the Tally
- 55:03Speaker 2: Bennett or No, and somebody I thought was pretty far right,
- 55:08Speaker 2: like you know, not long ago. But if it's not Yahoo,
- 55:12Speaker 2: I do think to use the relief valve could be
- 55:15Speaker 2: significant for Democrats.
- 55:18Speaker 1: What can you learn from the DSA? What should the
- 55:22Speaker 1: democratic establishment learn from the DSA?
- 55:26Speaker 2: I think you've made this point already, which is they
- 55:30Speaker 2: are right that the status quo is deeply broken. If
- 55:34Speaker 2: you are running to preserve a restore of status quo
- 55:38Speaker 2: ante from before Trump, You're insane. This country is not
- 55:43Speaker 2: working for working people at all. They've been screwed and
- 55:49Speaker 2: we all own a piece of this and we have
- 55:51Speaker 2: got to figure out a way to offer ideas that
- 55:54Speaker 2: are to scale and that feel like they can make
- 55:57Speaker 2: a difference in people's lives.
- 55:59Speaker 1: You know, what does it say about the brand of
- 56:01Speaker 1: the Democratic Party that Dan Osborne thinks he has a
- 56:03Speaker 1: better chance to win as an independent that it's really
- 56:08Speaker 1: crappy in place are in this century? Nebraska had two
- 56:12Speaker 1: US senators at the beginning of the centiate.
- 56:14Speaker 2: In Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Louisiana, Arkansas. I mean,
- 56:19Speaker 2: we have had senators and places that are now unthinkable
- 56:22Speaker 2: to have senators within like recent memory. So we have
- 56:28Speaker 2: We're in bad shape. Our party has become much too small.
- 56:34Speaker 2: I will say, I want to give it one glimmer
- 56:36Speaker 2: of hope, and that's Iowa. Iowa could be turning around.
- 56:40Speaker 2: Rob sand is going to win the governor's race there,
- 56:43Speaker 2: we have a shot at winning the Senate race. We
- 56:45Speaker 2: have a shot at winning three of the House races. Iowa,
- 56:48Speaker 2: which went very sharply towards Trump, is coming back. No.
- 56:53Speaker 1: I it's interesting and I'm curious of there's a there's
- 56:58Speaker 1: an interesting experiment that I'm comparing in Texas and Florida
- 57:02Speaker 1: because I think, ultimately, if the Democratic Party doesn't figure
- 57:06Speaker 1: out it, but one of those two Sung Belt states
- 57:07Speaker 1: in play, they're going to have mass problems for a
- 57:10Speaker 1: long time. You know, it's always gonna have to be
- 57:12Speaker 1: these inside straights in order to pull this off. It's
- 57:17Speaker 1: interesting me that the Democratic ticket in Texas is decidedly
- 57:21Speaker 1: progressive and the Democratic ticket in Florida is decidedly third way. Yes, right,
- 57:31Speaker 1: you know, is that a fair barometer to test which
- 57:33Speaker 1: which is the better direction for the party to go?
- 57:36Speaker 2: Well, I mean, the problem is the very different states,
- 57:39Speaker 2: and they both have you know, obviously trended pretty far
- 57:41Speaker 2: to the right recently. But I don't think and look,
- 57:45Speaker 2: candidate quality matters. James Talrico is a very good candidate.
- 57:48Speaker 1: And although Tim Wallas was a good candidate and quickly
- 57:52Speaker 1: got turned into weird, and I do think Tyler Rico
- 57:55Speaker 1: has a real challenge on his hands on on on
- 58:00Speaker 1: sort of being turned into that that he's not the
- 58:04Speaker 1: mainstream guy.
- 58:05Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. I mean, and they're they're doing their
- 58:07Speaker 2: damndest with AI videos and all this other crap. But
- 58:11Speaker 2: and look, I think he's still got a very very
- 58:15Speaker 2: uphill battle in Texas. But he's a good candidate. You know,
- 58:18Speaker 2: our candidates in Florida are pretty good. But so comparing
- 58:23Speaker 2: them as apples apples, I think is very hard.
- 58:25Speaker 1: Well, it is interesting that you know Talla Rico and
- 58:27Speaker 1: to a lesser extent, though, I've spent some time with Geena.
- 58:30Speaker 1: You know, she's very compelling, and I think she's going
- 58:34Speaker 1: to be have I think, you know, she's my surprise
- 58:38Speaker 1: showing of the Night on November, like I don't buy,
- 58:40Speaker 1: but I think you know, voters, voters rarely enjoy electing
- 58:44Speaker 1: a governor to a fourth term, and so there's always
- 58:46Speaker 1: a lot more she's going to get in the high forties.
- 58:50Speaker 1: I'm pretty convinced. The question is is it forty six
- 58:52Speaker 1: or is it forty eight or forty nine? And then
- 58:55Speaker 1: David Jolly at Florida and in some ways to a
- 58:57Speaker 1: lesser extent, Vindman are both going basically running as generic moderates,
- 59:02Speaker 1: and they're kind of saying, hey, we're not We're not
- 59:04Speaker 1: the charismatic team.
- 59:05Speaker 2: Yes, right, I don't know if boring works, No, boring
- 59:11Speaker 2: doesn't work. I mean, Bill Clinton wasn't boring. Bill Clinton
- 59:14Speaker 2: was interesting and exciting and also moderate. You can be
- 59:18Speaker 2: both things, and it's important that you do. And we've
- 59:23Speaker 2: got interesting, compelling, exciting people running as moderates. I mean,
- 59:28Speaker 2: Page Cognity running for the house in Pennsylvania. We've got
- 59:32Speaker 2: a whole bunch of them, Rebecca Bennett, New Jersey. There
- 59:36Speaker 2: are plenty, but they don't get as much attention as
- 59:42Speaker 2: these kind of loons in New York are getting. And
- 59:46Speaker 2: that's too bad. And I'm hoping this is what happened
- 59:48Speaker 2: twenty eighteen R twenty eighteen. The initial storyline was like,
- 59:51Speaker 2: oh my god, look at AOC and the squad. Yeah,
- 59:53Speaker 2: and then I was like, wait, no, thirty four house.
- 59:57Speaker 1: S Bamburger and yeah, right, and you got no, no, no no, And
- 1:00:00Speaker 1: then you know, the lion's share of these new I
- 1:00:04Speaker 1: hear you. But you know, the moderates are never in leadership,
- 1:00:11Speaker 1: I mean right, Like that's the issue in both parties
- 1:00:13Speaker 1: these days. You know, I think you want to talk
- 1:00:16Speaker 1: about my frustration and why I think that we frankly,
- 1:00:21Speaker 1: both parties need a scare from a third party or
- 1:00:24Speaker 1: an independent in order to sober up. And that is
- 1:00:29Speaker 1: the swing voters are only cared about for elections, they're
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: not cared about for governing. And the first entity that
- 1:00:35Speaker 1: figures out how to make that connection is suddenly going
- 1:00:38Speaker 1: to have a constituency of swing voters that can become
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: a base. And I just think both parties are flirting
- 1:00:43Speaker 1: with disaster here if they're not careful.
- 1:00:45Speaker 2: I couldn't agree more, which is why your thing about Warren.
- 1:00:50Speaker 2: You know, ultimately winning the staffing was a catastrophe for Democrats.
- 1:00:55Speaker 2: And by the way, on the other side, I will
- 1:00:58Speaker 2: never forget Trump. Trump won, Like in the third week
- 1:01:02Speaker 2: he was in the White House, he held a meeting
- 1:01:04Speaker 2: in the Roosevelt Room with all the labor leaders, and
- 1:01:06Speaker 2: I thought, oh my god, we are screwed. Like if
- 1:01:10Speaker 2: he can together, but he's going to co opt our
- 1:01:14Speaker 2: entire coalition. And then he just you know, spun out.
- 1:01:18Speaker 2: But if he had, if he had been more disciplined,
- 1:01:21Speaker 2: we would have been in real trouble.
- 1:01:23Speaker 1: No, it's a it's a but for you know, discipline.
- 1:01:27Speaker 1: But then again there's thankfully there's a lot of authoritarians
- 1:01:31Speaker 1: where their narcissism got in the way. For sure, to succeed.
- 1:01:34Speaker 1: So it is with there, so let me try to
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: land this plane. Okay, what does success look like for
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: your wing of the Democratic Party come November?
- 1:01:49Speaker 2: Very similar to twenty eighteen, which is, we can't stop
- 1:01:52Speaker 2: the storyline about look at the exciting lefties. But what
- 1:01:57Speaker 2: we can do is say the majority was made by
- 1:02:01Speaker 2: the moderates, the check on Trump was provided by moderates,
- 1:02:06Speaker 2: and that is where our party needs to go in
- 1:02:09Speaker 2: twenty twenty.
- 1:02:10Speaker 1: Eight And if Graham, Plattner and Abdul say Ed are
- 1:02:13Speaker 1: part of a Democratic Senate majority, is that it's hard?
- 1:02:16Speaker 1: Does that mean you've lost?
- 1:02:17Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it means it's harder. First of all, I
- 1:02:22Speaker 2: am deeply skeptical that i'lsay could beat my Rogers. But
- 1:02:26Speaker 2: you know, we'll see.
- 1:02:27Speaker 1: Trump's pretty unpopular, you know, you know what I mean?
- 1:02:31Speaker 1: Like this is how you know, It's sort of like
- 1:02:33Speaker 1: how did Matt You know, the Tea Party won in
- 1:02:35Speaker 1: twenty fourteen and twenty ten because the Democrats were unpopular
- 1:02:38Speaker 1: in that moment, right, you know, so a lot of
- 1:02:40Speaker 1: people who normally couldn't win generals did So it's true.
- 1:02:44Speaker 2: That so look it's if those guys both win, I
- 1:02:47Speaker 2: will stipulate that our job has gotten harder. There is
- 1:02:50Speaker 2: no doubt. But there's going to be a whole bunch
- 1:02:54Speaker 2: more moderates who have won that have made the House majority,
- 1:02:58Speaker 2: that maybe making the senatement. Josh Turuk is not grand Platiner.
- 1:03:03Speaker 2: And so if Mary Poltola and Turuk and some of
- 1:03:06Speaker 2: these people are able to win, that's going to be
- 1:03:08Speaker 2: a countervailing storyline. And both sides are going to have
- 1:03:11Speaker 2: cases to make going into twenty eight.
- 1:03:14Speaker 1: And what would you do if you were Chuck Schumer
- 1:03:17Speaker 1: right now?
- 1:03:18Speaker 2: Oh man, I would make clear that I'm not running
- 1:03:22Speaker 2: in twenty eight and that I would make sure would
- 1:03:26Speaker 2: you do it? Would you?
- 1:03:27Speaker 1: Would you do it like before November?
- 1:03:31Speaker 2: Yeah? Probably I would. I mean, Brian Shotts is waiting
- 1:03:34Speaker 2: in the wings. He's in the position Chuck was in
- 1:03:37Speaker 2: with Red where he's very lug.
- 1:03:39Speaker 1: But Brian, but he's got to be careful here. If
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: he looks too close to Schumer, I know, it becomes
- 1:03:44Speaker 1: a litman, he becomes a litmus test and a negative
- 1:03:46Speaker 1: right right.
- 1:03:47Speaker 2: But you know, Elizabeth Warren should not be the majority
- 1:03:52Speaker 2: leader or the leader of the Democrats.
- 1:03:54Speaker 1: On said what about christ Murphy?
- 1:03:57Speaker 2: I mean I think both of them are too far left,
- 1:04:01Speaker 2: too left code of First of all, WARN's too old,
- 1:04:04Speaker 2: like you know, we're not gonna replaced a seventy eight
- 1:04:06Speaker 2: year old with a seventy six year old or whatever
- 1:04:08Speaker 2: she is. And and Murphy has thrown in his lot
- 1:04:12Speaker 2: with the left in a fairly aggressive way in ways
- 1:04:15Speaker 2: that Shots, who has credibility on the left, has not.
- 1:04:18Speaker 2: And I think you need somebody that can manage the
- 1:04:22Speaker 2: Senate coalition is broad and we just discussed the only
- 1:04:26Speaker 2: way to win majorities is to win in tough places.
- 1:04:28Speaker 2: And I don't think we want quit Chris Murphy being
- 1:04:30Speaker 2: the face of the Democrats on the set.
- 1:04:32Speaker 1: No, I mean, I am a. I am A. I
- 1:04:35Speaker 1: think Shots is. I sort of see it as sort
- 1:04:38Speaker 1: of what John Thune is for the Republicans. He's kind
- 1:04:40Speaker 1: of this guy that that is everybody likes, nobody dislikes, right,
- 1:04:48Speaker 1: and it's sort of it is a Goldilocks thing. But
- 1:04:51Speaker 1: that doesn't mean it's easy to govern, right, show that's
- 1:04:53Speaker 1: pretty hard.
- 1:04:55Speaker 2: It's super hard for everybody.
- 1:04:56Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, well, Matt, it's a is h the mom
- 1:05:01Speaker 1: Donnie Tuesday isn't an earthquake or we don't know yet.
- 1:05:06Speaker 2: A minor one. I don't think it's a I don't
- 1:05:08Speaker 2: think it's a split the earth earthquake. But it's a
- 1:05:11Speaker 2: it's it should shake us up for sure. Uh.
- 1:05:15Speaker 1: Well, this was a fascinating conversation. Appreciate the time.
- 1:05:18Speaker 2: Great talking to you.
- 1:05:20Speaker 3: H m hm hm