Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 431 - 1/13/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 431 - 1/13/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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54321 All Systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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welcome to episode 431 of the All Systems Go sports betting
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podcast powered by Rhythm. I'm your host, Josh Applebaum.
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What's going on everyone? Happy Tuesday.
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Another day here in the arena, guys.
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We got a lot to talk about today.
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We're going to shift gears a little bit.
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It's been football non-stop, wall to wall.
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We have a little bit of a break here until the next round of NFL
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Divisional round games. I'm looking at the lines right
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now. We got the Bills sitting around
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-1 or a pick. We got Seattle -7 1/2 for San
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Francisco. My Patriots are around a
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three-point favorite against Houston.
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And then we got the Bears catching 3 1/2, maybe even four
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against the Rams. So going to let the dust settle
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a little bit. We're going to monitor these
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lines and maybe starting tomorrow or the day after, you
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know, I'll give you maybe some early plays here.
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Of course reminder we do have our Thursday rhythm rundown live
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streams will be going through all these matchups here.
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We can let the dust settle a little bit and see where these
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rhythm advantages are lying, but I'm thinking, okay, no football
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for a little bit, so we'll take a breather.
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So let's. Talk some college.
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Basketball. It's a huge college basketball
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Super Tuesday slate tonight, 35 games overall.
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And usually we're looking at, you know, oftentimes obscure
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sharp line moves added extra games.
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No, no, no, no, I got three games that are the three most
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heavily bet games of the night with some good system matches,
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good sharp line moves, good rhythm and truce, real edges.
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So tonight, today we're going to talk a three pack of college
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basketball plays. Of course, the goal with a three
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pack is to go 2 and 1 eke out a winning day.
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Now, looking back to our last night, guys, man, I thought we
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might eke out a three-point loss and cover with the 3 1/2 with
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the Pittsburgh Steelers. But what a just disgusting,
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pathetic performance from the Steelers offense.
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Got away from them, you know, lost 30 to 6, gave up two
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touchdowns late. But again, that's a play that we
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lost with Pittsburgh in the points.
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But it's a play that I'll make every time because you were a
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very, very unpopular dog with a line move in your favor. 3 1/2
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down to three. I saw some books even close at 2
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1/2. So that's an example of being on
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the sharp side doing our part and the team on the field not
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doing their. SO the frustrating part there
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for me was just the fact that, you know, Houston kept
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committing those turnovers. How many times did CJ Stroud
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fumble it, you know, throw a pick?
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And all Pittsburgh had to do was, you know, move the ball and
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score some points. And even Tomlin, I'll give him
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credit, he actually just stepped down.
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Tomlin is now done with the Steelers.
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But he did take the points a couple times kicking field
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goals. So I thought we might eke out a
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cover there. But that Houston Texans defense
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is just ferocious. So we all knew about the the
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bookends Daniel Hunter and Will Anderson, but that guy Petri,
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that safety, that guy's like a mini Ed Reed out there.
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So either way, guys a good sharp bet there just came came up
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short O and 1 -, 1 unit. But again, we'll let the dust
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settle. We'll we'll get ready for the
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next round of the postseason here.
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But for the time being, let's see if we can make some money
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and look very closely and exclusively at some college
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basketball games. So that being said, three pack,
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let's try to go 2 and 1. Three big games here for
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tonight. I want to start off with
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Wisconsin and Minnesota. 7:00 game tier tonight.
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I believe it's on the Big 10 Network.
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Will it set the stage? Talk split system matches, line
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moves. I'll give you my play for this
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one. So Wisconsin comes in 11 and
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five on the year. They've won two straight.
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Just upset. Michigan was Michigan's first
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loss of the year. Who money lined Wisconsin in
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that game? Wisconsin was an 18 1/2 point
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Rd. dog and they beat Michigan 2091 to 88.
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On the other hand, Minnesota 10 and six just saw their five game
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win streak come to an end. They lost to USC 70 to 69 in
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overtime. Lost out right as a 3 1/2 point
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home favorite. So we've seen across the market
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here. Well in one of the more heavily
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backed games the night, Wisconsin open as a very short 2
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point Rd. favorite and the public says Wisconsin all day
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line is too short. Wisconsin just beat arguably one
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of the best, if not the best team, right up there with
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Arizona, with Michigan. So again, if they can beat
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Michigan on the road, they can easily win by three or more on
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the road at Minnesota, right? Well, that's what the public's
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saying right now. You're getting 70% of spread
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bets laying it with the Badgers. But the Badgers didn't creep up
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-2 up to -3 -, 4. No, the lines gone the other
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way. We went from Wisconsin -2 now
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down to Wisconsin -1 1/2. I'm even seeing one shop at 1.
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So take a step back. Why is the line moving toward
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Minnesota? If Publix hammering Wisconsin,
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why are the odds makers dropping the Badgers line to make it
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easier for the Badgers to cover? Oh, you like him to win by three
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or more? What if you only have to win by
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two or more? Let's drop it down to 1 1/2.
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So Publix doubling down on Wisconsin.
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But this tells me we got smart money going here with Minnesota.
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Now Minnesota super sharp reverse line move public
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Wisconsin line going to the Badgers or the the Gophers I
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should say. But then also just a really good
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bet against the public play. Wisconsin is getting you know,
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nearly two, nearly three out of four bats only about 1/4 of bets
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going with Minnesota. If you look at DraftKings in
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particular, 30% bets, 41% dollars, but circa 36% bets, 70%
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dollars. So really good low bets, higher
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dollar split in favor of Minnesota.
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Now Minnesota has additional betting system value as a
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conference dog. So built in familiarity levels
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the playing field benefits the team getting points we have seen
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in Big 10 conference play. So two teams from the Big 10
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face off, take the dog that is 10 and seven against the spread
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59% ATS this year, that is a 13% ROI.
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And if we look at a little bit historically since 2021, sorry,
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this, these are home dogs in the Big 10, I should say Big 10
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conference home dogs, they are again 59% ATS this year, 58%
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since 2021, also a conference home dog with a line move.
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So that's a conference game. You're at home, you're a dog and
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the lines moving in your favor. That system is 37 and 25 against
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the spread this year, 60%, fourteen percent ROI.
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So 2 good system matches on the Gophers.
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Maybe a little bit of a scheduling advantage as well
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because the Gophers one day rest advantage, but they also last
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played at home on December 9th versus the Badgers, who last
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played on December 10th and they're also playing or sorry,
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January 10th and January, January 9th.
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I should say they're also playing their second straight
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Rd. game. So Gophers one extra day rest
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and no travel versus Wisconsin, one less day of rest and second
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straight Rd. game. Also little home Rd.
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Minnesota 9 and one at home number.
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They came through for us. Was it last week or the week
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before when they were at home against Iowa?
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It was a very similar situation. They went out right Wisconsin
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just one and two on the road. Lastly, doesn't hurt that Rhythm
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has a recommendation to take Minnesota plus 1 1/2.
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You may have gotten a + 2 little bit earlier today.
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I put that in in the juicer lab if you follow for $4.99 a week.
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By the way, we very much appreciate that if you wanted to
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support the team, but Rhythm has Minnesota plus 0.5.
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So we got public all over the Badgers, but the lines dropping
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to Minnesota sharp split conference dog scheduling
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advantage home Rd. good rhythm edge.
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So I played Minnesota +2 got that at fanatics earlier today
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is either fanatics or Caesar's, I forget which one, but it looks
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like plus 1 1/2 is now now your best numbers, but hopefully you
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beat the closing line anyway because some books look to be
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getting down to 1. Next one for you, let's look at
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Baylor and Oklahoma State. 9:00 game here for tonight and then
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I'm going to save the big one for last.
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But Baylor comes in 10 and five. They've dropped three straight
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however just got rolled by Houston 77 to 55 did not cover
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as a 2 1/2 point home dog. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma State
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Cowboys are 13 and three, but they have lost two of their last
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three and just lost to Iowa State 83 to 71.
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Did cover however as an 18 1/2 point Rd. dog so.
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I'm just sitting across the market here.
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Well, this game open Baylor listed as a short 2 point Rd.
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favorite and if you like Minnesota like I do, I think you
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like Oklahoma State very similar here in a way, maybe even a
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little bit sharper because Baylor opened at -2 on the road.
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Public doesn't know what to do Baylor probably the bigger name
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school, but there are lane points on the road.
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So Publix right down the middle should be lay it with Baylor
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should be back. OK State right down the middle.
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Don't know what to do 5050 ticket split.
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So what do we always talk about with a 5050 ticket split?
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Theoretically in a vacuum, right down the middle with the tickets
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line shouldn't move at all because there's no reason you
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would imagine theoretically for the oddsmakers to move the
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number up or down. However, even though we're
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getting 5050. Tickets We've seen this.
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Line move toward OK State because Baylor went from -2 down
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to -1 1/2. Some books even at one point
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hopped the fence and went to OK state -1 1/2 earlier today.
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Some books are down to OK State getting one or a pick em game.
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But this thing has never gotten a 2 1/2.
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It's only shown liability on the Oklahoma State side.
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So I like Oklahoma State here. Again, this is a game where you
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can still get the plus 1 1/2, but there are some books, you
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know, pick em. And again, they have hopped the
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fence in it at one point got into Oakley, Oklahoma State
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laying a pointer point now. But you should be able to get
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the plus 1 1/2 that's available at most shops right now.
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But we'd love to get the 1 1/2 and then see it move further
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toward OK State. But anyway, lines going OK
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state, they're only getting 50% of spread bets, but 68% of
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spread dollars at DK. Now Ken Palm does of Oklahoma
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State winning by one point. So here's the thing.
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If this was OK state -1 1/2, this would be a money line play
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for me. OK State, but this would
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technically be we can we can bust it out.
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We haven't said it in a while, a woo woo Ken Palm sound the alarm
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play because you can still get OK State plus 1 1/2 when Ken
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Palm has them winning the game by one point.
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So I will take that one and half.
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That's what I did. OK state, better defensive
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efficiency, 77th versus 96th, better effective field goal
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percentage, 68th versus 81st and better free throw shooting.
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That's a big advantage here. 62nd versus 150.
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First home Rd. also leans toward OK State.
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They are 11 and O at home, Baylor's O and two on the road.
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Lastly, we have rhythm showing OK state -0.7 and -0.9.
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So we can still get that 1 1/2. That's a pretty good edge.
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And oh, by the way, our friends at Juice Reel are showing a 25%
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sharp mush edge on OK State. So 25% more of the sharper
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winning betters who have downloaded Juice Reel.
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Like you out there listening and syncing up your sports books,
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leaning toward Oklahoma State. So again, this has been OK state
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plus 1 1/2. There's been a pick, there's
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been OK state slightly favored, but you should be able to get
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that plus 1 1/2. That's what I did.
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I grabbed the Cowboys at home plus 1 1/2.
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Now the biggest bet of the night, not in terms of, you
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know, unit size. As you may know by now, I'm a
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flat better. So every play is 1 unit, risking
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1 unit, which is 3% of your bankroll per play.
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However, this is the one that gets me the most excited because
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it's the it's really sharp. It's really gross, but I got to
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play it because this is a historically sharp spot and it
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is Iowa State in Kansas. This is the most heavily bet
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game of the night, 9 O clock Eastern Time.
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We have Iowa State coming in 16 and O second in the country
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undefeated. They just brushed aside OK
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State, who we just mentioned 83 to 71 but didn't cover, though
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they're favored by 18 1/2 at home.
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Meanwhile, Kansas 11 and five. When's the last time Kansas into
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early January was unranked? It hasn't been.
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It's been a while, but they're 11 and five, dropped two of
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their last three and just fell to West Virginia. 86 to 75 lost
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out right as a 3 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
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So. What have you seen across the
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market here? Well, this game open Iowa State
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listed as a Four Point Rd. favorite and the public cannot
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believe this line is so low. Iowa State is the far better
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team. Undefeated, second ranked.
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Kansas is not Kansas like we like.
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We remember they're unranked. So right now, 74% of spread bets
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are laying it with Iowa State. But here's where it gets really,
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really sharp. Even though three out of four
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bets are on Iowa State, Iowa State is not up -4 to -5 no, the
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signs down to 3 1/2. So why is this line dropping
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toward Kansas if everybody and their mother in the most heavily
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bet game of the night are going with Iowa State?
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Tells me we have classic sharp RLM in favor of Kansas again,
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only getting a quarter of tickets, yet the line has moved
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in their favor. Plus 4 down to plus 3 1/2.
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I did jump on the four a little bit earlier today.
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Again, I think it was either Fanatics or Caesar's.
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Most books now are down to 3 1/2, so you should at least be
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able to get the 3 1/2 here. But Kansas, aside from that,
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really sharp RLM 4 down to 3 1/2 despite getting only 1/4 of
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tickets. They're also just the top bet
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against the public play of the night.
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Even if you take away that sharp line move, they're only getting
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a quarter of tickets in the most heavily back game.
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So I believe this game is on ESPN.
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So just from a fade, the drunk guys at the bar on a Tuesday
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night, this is your top play to take Kansas.
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Kansas is also a classic unranked versus ranked system
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match. If we look at that unranked
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versus ranked system match since the start of this year, it is
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one O 3 and 92 ATS 53 percent, 1% ROI.
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So nothing crazy, but it just proves that going on ranked
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versus ranked has been more profitable than going with the
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obvious ranked versus unranked. But also you have a Jayhawks
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team as a conference dog. So built in familiarity levels,
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the playing field, benefits the team getting points.
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One big advantage like you look at Iowa State, I mean, they're
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great in like almost every category.
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But one advantage here for Kansas is free throw shooting.
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If we can get to the line, hopefully that's an advantage to
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cover this number because Kansas is 83rd in the country.
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They're shooting 75% from the line.
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Iowa State's one Achilles heel is free throw shooting.
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They're only shooting 69%. That's ranked 281st in the
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country. Doesn't hurt that.
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By the way, Rhythm has Kansas plus 2.8 or plus 2.6 and you can
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still get a 3 1/2 across the betting market.
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Again, shop for the best line. See if you can maybe get a four,
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but still, 3 1/2 is available. And why is this line down to 3
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1/2 if everyone's playing Iowa State?
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So as great as Iowa State is, I remember I bet against them with
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Baylor last week and they Baylor was complete idiot down the down
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the stretch, turning the ball over, making dumb passes, not
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defending. But maybe it's a good time to to
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fade a team that everyone loves and that is playing great.
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And maybe it's a time to buy low on Kansas.
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And I do believe their star player Peterson, who might be
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the number one overall pick, he is good to go.
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He's been injured for much of the year, but I think he's
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played in like 4 or five straight games.
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Hopefully he is fine. Long story short guys #1 Sharp
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can train play of the night. I'm going with The Jayhawks.
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You'd love a + 4, if not plus 3 1/2, so Minnesota, Oklahoma
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State, Kansas. So we can get two out of these
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three dogs to bark. That'll be a nice two in one
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winning night. So that about does it for
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episode 431 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
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powered by Rhythm. Of course.
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This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up, and I
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always start first by saying thank you.
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Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for
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grinding in the arena with me every single day.
15:55
Even when we get good CLV and make sharp plays, sometimes the
15:58
Steelers don't come through for us.
16:00
But I can tell you one thing, if we make that play 1000 times,
16:04
we're going to come out on top over the course of the long
16:06
haul. But if you do enjoy this pod,
16:08
hopefully you value the insights.
16:10
Maybe you're busy at work and you don't have a chance like me
16:12
to stare at these lines all day. Hopefully you look forward to
16:15
the pod again, I'm, I'm playing all these games.
16:18
It's up to you what you want to do.
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We don't pick and choose. Play them all.
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Heck, if you want to fade, that's fine too.
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As long as you're listening and taking paying attention to the
16:28
insights. That's what means most to me.
16:30
I'd like for you to be on the same side, I must admit.
16:32
But anyway, with that being said, could you please help me
16:35
grow this podcast by giving it a very simple five star review on
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Spotify or iTunes? Just click that five star review
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if you want to leave a nice comment or recommend the pod to
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a friend or click the follow button or or or retweet the pod
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When I put it out there on Twitter every day.
16:52
That would be very much appreciated.
16:54
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
16:58
sharp contrarian betting. Focusing on what the numbers are
17:01
telling us, not what our innate biases are telling us.
17:03
Making bets of their head and not our heart.
17:05
Focusing on line movement, split system matches, AI models from
17:10
from our friends like Juice reel and rhythm.
17:11
Well, if that's the case and you want to learn more about
17:14
data-driven betting. Or maybe you have a friend or
17:16
someone you know who likes to bet on sports and really has no,
17:20
you know really just doesn't even look at any any of the
17:22
data. Or maybe someone who wants to
17:24
break into sports and doesn't know how how sports betting
17:27
operates. I would love for you to go to
17:29
Amazon.com and type in the NFL sharp betting playbook or the
17:33
everything guide to sports betting and grab a copy for you
17:36
or that friend of yours. And if you'd like to give it a
17:39
five star review in the on Amazon, that would be great as
17:42
well. But make sure you bring those
17:44
books to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
17:46
I'll buy a beer or ginger ale. Sweat some college hoops
17:49
together tonight. Next, have you downloaded rhythm
17:52
and juice reel yet? Well, if you haven't, what are
17:54
you waiting for? That's OK if you haven't yet,
17:56
but still go do it now because rhythm great for their AI backed
17:59
models and predictions for game bets and player props, as well
18:02
as juice reel. So many great features,
18:04
including the ability to support the pod, throw a $5.00 bill in
18:08
the tip jar and get the all systems go best bet picks, which
18:12
would have gotten to Kansas with the four, Minnesota with the two
18:14
earlier today. But if you would like to sign up
18:18
to get the ASG best bets from Juice Reel, it would cost you
18:21
$4.99 a week. Again, 499 is a $5.00 bill.
18:26
It's not $499, but you'll support the pod and you'll get
18:30
those plays immediately. And I would appreciate it.
18:32
And so my buddy Ricky Gold who runs Juice Reel, you also get
18:36
the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the
18:38
arbitrage plays the shop for the best line features all available
18:41
when you download juice reel. So download rhythm, download
18:44
juice reel, give them a five star review in the App Store.
18:48
Next you have a live odds page. Well, if you don't, you need
18:51
one. I honestly don't know how people
18:53
bet without having a live odds page because you got to be able
18:55
to track the market. What did the line open at?
18:58
Where is it now? How is it moved?
18:59
Track the line history, shop for the best number, identify steam,
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get those sharp signals which are these really awesome new
19:06
additions to the Odds Logic live odds page.
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Get live in game wagering odds. It's all available when you sign
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up for Odds Logic. So all you have to do is use a
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special link. You got to use this link to get
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the seven day free trial 50% off your first month.
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It's odds logic.com/josh 123 next.
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Have you downloaded Novig yet? Novig is a sports betting
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better juice prices because you're going up against other
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betters and not the house. So instead of having to pay -115
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-, 120, you're typically paying minus one O 7 plus one O 2 - 1
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same rate you would at a sports book, but make more money
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So if you want to download Novig when you go to fund your
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It'll tack on an extra 25 bucks for you.
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So that about does it for episode 431 guys.
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Again, a little bit break from football.
19:59
So let's see if we can take advantage here of some college
20:02
hoops, get some dogs to bark. But as always, two final
20:05
thoughts that I'll leave you with.
20:06
One whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
20:09
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
20:11
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in
20:14
Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield, the
20:17
Nash and my neck of the woods. On the border of Massachusetts
20:20
and Nashua, NH, or out in the desert where the true grinders
20:23
get down. Where Billy Walter sends his
20:25
number runners. Where the lowest use possible is
20:28
found at the South Point. Or sweat and sharp and train
20:30
plays, jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
20:33
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, you're going to walk up
20:36
to me. You're going to show me a
20:37
sharpest attack. Steelers plus 3 1/2 ticket.
20:40
When the line closes 3 or 2 1/2, we're just going to RIP them up
20:43
and say what a pathetic performance by the Steelers and
20:46
we'll say, you know what, we'll get the next one.
20:47
You got to have that next bet mentality and be a competitor if
20:52
you're a sports better. But as always, guys coming off
20:54
an O and one or a want to know a winning night, a losing night, a
20:57
hot streak, a cold streak, whether we're making sharp bets
21:00
and just the team on the field doesn't come coming through for
21:02
us or you know, we're getting lucky and there's a little bit
21:05
of both when you're betting on sports.
21:07
But we just got to stay even keeled, not get too high when
21:10
things are going well, not get too low when we're struggling,
21:13
stay the course. Think long term flat betting,
21:16
playing the system matches and you might know by now they go
21:18
something like this. Games that fit our model are
21:21
against the public with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
21:24
avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
21:28
to be successful sports bettors. So have a great Tuesday night,
21:31
everybody. Be right back at it tomorrow for
21:33
a big hump day edition, big Wednesday edition.
21:35
That'll be episode 432 of the All Systems Go sports betting
21:39
podcast powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody, and let's
21:43
get some winners on the college basketball hardwood.
21:46
Good luck.