Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 248: Cattle Markets on Edge as Cold Weather and Headlines Collide with Dan and Samantha

Transcript

248: Cattle Markets on Edge as Cold Weather and Headlines Collide with Dan and Samantha · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  In today's episode with Dan and Samantha, we are breaking down
• 0:03
  everything in the cattle markets this week.
• 0:05
  What is going on, what has happened and what is going to
• 0:08
  happen. We talked about historic markets
• 0:11
  around this time of year. We talked about what we
• 0:13
  anticipate going forward into the rest of January, February,
• 0:17
  March, April as we get ready for spring.
• 0:20
  We talked about low inventory numbers.
• 0:21
  We talked about slaughter numbers.
• 0:23
  We are kind of touching on everything that could possibly
• 0:26
  be affected by the cattle markets right now.
• 0:29
  We also touch on on the grain markets at the end as well.
• 0:32
  As always, before we hop into today's episode, if you're
• 0:35
  watching on YouTube, make sure you hit that subscribe button up
• 0:37
  above. And like this episode, if you're
• 0:39
  watching on any of our other podcasting platforms, make sure
• 0:42
  you take a second to go follow the show and rate and review it
• 0:44
  as well. Without further ado, let's go
• 0:47
  ahead and hear from Dan and Samantha.
• 0:53
  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
• 0:57
  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
• 0:59
  updates shaping agriculture today.
• 1:02
  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
• 1:05
  agriculture here to keep you informed and connected.
• 1:08
  Now let's dive into today's episode.
• 1:14
  Dan, Samantha, welcome back to the podcast.
• 1:17
  Are you guys frozen popsicles yet or are you still semi
• 1:21
  thought out in your regions? Getting close sounds like Dan's
• 1:26
  closer than I am. Going to get bad.
• 1:29
  Yeah, yeah. It's going to go up.
• 1:33
  Yeah, yeah -15 Kim says. It's negative.
• 1:37
  Real feel expected -48 yeah, yeah, so.
• 1:42
  I think that's my definition of hell, actually.
• 1:45
  Like if we're being completely honest.
• 1:47
  Yeah, Hell's freezing over and but hey, the good news is, is
• 1:51
  this is hitting most of America and in the old days.
• 1:54
  I hope it's good for this week. That's good for a cattle rally.
• 1:58
  So nobody likes selling cattle that are all hard and shrunk out
• 2:02
  from a winter blast. So see what we can do.
• 2:04
  Everybody. Let's get this thing to pop.
• 2:07
  I love the optimism, Dan. What what are we seeing in the
• 2:10
  cattle markets recap this last week and kind of what we're
• 2:13
  going to be seeing as well. Oh, Mr. Mr. Sid Miller wanted
• 2:18
  some publicity last week and and he got it and the algos took it
• 2:22
  and ran with it. And then yesterday was just
• 2:24
  sideways action kind of depressing.
• 2:26
  We didn't put it on, considering it put it back on considering it
• 2:29
  was all just a rumor. But yeah, so very fragile market
• 2:33
  in the fact that just a guy jumping on social media or on TV
• 2:37
  and and he could drop the market that hard on no actual news to
• 2:41
  report. So it was just his thoughts.
• 2:44
  So that's that's sad. I wish he would have just stayed
• 2:48
  at home that day and kept his mouth shut.
• 2:50
  But yeah, it is what it is. That's our, that's our market.
• 2:55
  Like I said, a little fragile right now.
• 2:56
  Absolutely, Yeah. I've kind of given up on trying
• 2:58
  to make sense of anything that happens in the market clear back
• 3:02
  from September, October days. But it doesn't make a lot of
• 3:05
  sense why I was a downer. And I think everybody's kind of
• 3:08
  wondering the same thing. A lot of it probably could just
• 3:11
  be he's a politician in the media talking about cattle and
• 3:14
  screw worms and sometimes that's all it takes.
• 3:16
  But like you said, I'm. I'm not going to put a lot of
• 3:19
  stock into it. We rebounded a little bit on
• 3:21
  Tuesday. Not enough to make a whole a lot
• 3:23
  of difference, but seems like the buzz is piddling out like it
• 3:26
  always does and everything's always an over exaggeration at
• 3:29
  1st till everyone realizes it's not quite the headline it was
• 3:33
  gassed up to be. So kind of one of those deals.
• 3:36
  Yeah, for sure. It is really frustrating I think
• 3:39
  to sit back and see just the cattle market mentioned and
• 3:43
  everyone freeze and run for the hills type of situation.
• 3:49
  We've seen it over the past year in 2025.
• 3:52
  And I think you said it perfectly, Dan, that it's
• 3:54
  unfortunately just a very fragile market that we are
• 3:57
  working with. But I love the optimism and
• 4:00
  let's just pray for a a rally at the end of this week.
• 4:04
  Absolutely. Yeah, it's just the way it
• 4:06
  works. I mean, called Packer sympathy
• 4:08
  and they know they're buying cattle that are hard and shrunk
• 4:10
  out and, you know, are going to yield well.
• 4:12
  So they typically bid higher. You know, last week's trade was
• 4:17
  mostly steady, some areas a buck higher.
• 4:20
  But you know, this week I'd, I'd like to see some 235 trade, you
• 4:25
  know, widespread with this winter blast because everybody's
• 4:29
  going to be hauling them off a little smaller next week than
• 4:32
  than what they were weighing last week.
• 4:35
  So not ideal, but that's the situation we're in.
• 4:38
  It's winter and we get it every year.
• 4:41
  Absolutely, Yeah. I think we would have saw that
• 4:43
  234 trade easily come Friday with all the momentum they had
• 4:47
  built up had the board not wrecked all that momentum.
• 4:51
  But I saw we sold a load in Iowa at 232 yesterday.
• 4:55
  Well, a couple of the guests, they sold 635 heads.
• 4:58
  So that doesn't make me super optimistic just because they
• 5:01
  gave up a little leverage to the Packer.
• 5:03
  But hopefully we see that pick up towards the end of the week.
• 5:06
  I get those big elephants cleaned up and out of the way.
• 5:09
  So yeah, no, I agree. Yep, just kind of ho hum.
• 5:15
  Feeder cattle. I don't know, I think everybody
• 5:18
  kind of calmed down after the first week of January And, you
• 5:21
  know, barns are touched softer, just, you know, bending
• 5:24
  ourselves into new record high breakevens is is pretty
• 5:28
  incredible. So glad they've calmed down a
• 5:31
  little bit. But overall they're still really
• 5:33
  super strong prices. I mean, these grass cattle are
• 5:37
  ungodly owl it, it appears like every year we're buying our
• 5:42
  grass calves a a month earlier. So, you know, if, if some of
• 5:45
  those guys get filled up, get ready, you know, get there 5-6
• 5:49
  weeks, you know, in their yards ready to turn out this spring.
• 5:53
  I think maybe that'll just calm this thing down and maybe we'll
• 5:56
  just go steady here for a little while.
• 5:58
  In the feeder market, the board stays volatile.
• 6:01
  Cash is probably going to stay volatile.
• 6:03
  So all the fun? All the fun, yeah.
• 6:08
  Yeah, Cash prices definitely settled off a little bit here.
• 6:11
  I don't think it had anything to do with the board falling off
• 6:15
  any, but just normal demand fluctuations in those stock or
• 6:18
  feeders. Like you were saying, those
• 6:19
  grass cattle kind of propped up the cash market the last couple
• 6:23
  weeks and there's less of them coming through.
• 6:25
  So we talked a little bit about temperatures.
• 6:28
  Everyone's been pretty unseasonably warm this winter,
• 6:32
  got a snowstorm coming through the end of the week.
• 6:35
  I think that doesn't help. A lot of people are gearing up
• 6:37
  for calving, getting ready to live in their coveralls for the
• 6:41
  next two months. So not super big priority to get
• 6:44
  to the sale barn right now. I don't think that halts demand
• 6:47
  by any means, but like you said, it's probably easier to justify
• 6:51
  a sideways trend for the time being, especially until these
• 6:55
  cash fat prices catch up a little to help with break evens.
• 6:58
  Yeah, absolutely. I think you both make a lot of
• 7:01
  really good points there. And I'm hoping that over the
• 7:03
  next few months, we can just kind of skate by for a little
• 7:06
  bit longer while everyone is focused on all of the other
• 7:09
  million things that we have going on and all of the other
• 7:12
  balls in the court that we have. As we go into calving season, as
• 7:16
  we move into different things like that, we are going to see
• 7:19
  some just different trends as we fluctuate in just the
• 7:23
  seasonality of the cattle market as well.
• 7:25
  Historically, just in the past when we see let me look at
• 7:29
  January and February even into March, what are kind of your
• 7:33
  guys's thoughts as we go forward?
• 7:36
  You know historically the Bulls got Christmas right?
• 7:39
  So you have this run up post Chris, post holidays where
• 7:43
  feeders went haywire cuz everybody, you know, they went
• 7:46
  back in the cattle business, lot of farmers went to the barn.
• 7:49
  A lot of the corporates got got really aggressive their first
• 7:52
  part of January. You know, overall there's a
• 7:54
  trend and beef that it trends up here for a couple weeks and then
• 7:57
  all the sudden it slides into February.
• 8:01
  You know, it's just the way the seasonals and the weather play
• 8:05
  into our beef market. So you don't have strong
• 8:07
  grilling demand. Depending on the weather, that's
• 8:10
  going to help decide do people stay home or they hunker down
• 8:13
  eating roasts, eating burger or they going out to the
• 8:16
  restaurants ordering steak? You know, price is always a
• 8:19
  factor. But it wouldn't surprise me if
• 8:21
  beef's little bit, little bit. It also wouldn't surprise me if
• 8:24
  beef stayed steady. Just the fact that we're killing
• 8:26
  fewer cattle right now than in a normal year.
• 8:30
  Feeder cattle market typically, you know, sideways action here
• 8:33
  for the next three to four weeks as you come into Valentine's
• 8:36
  Day. And then of course, you get some
• 8:38
  bigger numbers around you and you start sliding into March.
• 8:42
  It's pretty common. Didn't happen the last two
• 8:44
  years. Obviously plenty of strength in
• 8:46
  the fat cattle side kept that from happening to the feeders,
• 8:48
  but here we are. Are we going to see the strength
• 8:52
  carry all the way into February? Are we going to run out of
• 8:55
  feeders? The old saying is you'll run out
• 8:56
  of money before you run out of feeder cattle.
• 8:59
  But we've talked to a lot of sail barns that have that have
• 9:01
  stressed. A lot of cattle came early this
• 9:03
  year. If that's the case, are there
• 9:06
  going to be tighter, lighter runs in March?
• 9:08
  Are we going to see a lot of those yearlings, you know, the
• 9:11
  2025 calf crop, are they going to have been moved already?
• 9:15
  Is that going to keep prices high through March?
• 9:17
  A lot of and variables, a lot of unknowns.
• 9:19
  Of course, heifer retention is another one.
• 9:22
  If we are retaining some efforts right now, that's liable to keep
• 9:24
  feeder cattle prices stable and and possibly tick higher into
• 9:27
  the spring. So those are just your, your
• 9:30
  standard, I guess I'd say seasonals for this time of year,
• 9:33
  beef, you know, fat cattle, you know, the futures like to run up
• 9:36
  into February, then they take a step back in March.
• 9:39
  Typically they run again into April and you know, step back in
• 9:43
  in early May and you get that big positive basis against the
• 9:46
  board. But at the same time, once
• 9:48
  again, it it comes back to the fundamentals of this market.
• 9:52
  Can we get that grilling season to hold us?
• 9:54
  Can we get, you know, a stabilization in beef demand
• 9:58
  enough to hold these cash cattle prices here?
• 10:00
  Can we get them to ramp that slaughter back up and actually
• 10:03
  push prices higher? A lot of unknowns whether it's a
• 10:06
  big factor always. We've got some really, really
• 10:09
  high weights right now, record highs, posters and heifers.
• 10:12
  So as we come into the spring market, what's that look like?
• 10:16
  How's that going to be a variable?
• 10:18
  You know, they could cut back slaughter and don't have to be
• 10:20
  as aggressive in the cash space and still get the same amount of
• 10:23
  beef. You know, how's that all going
• 10:25
  to play in? So a lot of unknowns here in the
• 10:27
  next couple months would like to see that slaughter number really
• 10:30
  get ramped up and avoid backing cattle into that spring hole
• 10:33
  that we've all been looking at and talking about.
• 10:36
  For sure, Samantha, what are your thoughts?
• 10:39
  Yeah, unknowns are a big factor. I think it's hard to compare to
• 10:42
  history in previous years because we're seeing different
• 10:45
  things this year than we've ever really seen before.
• 10:47
  Tightest supplies obviously since the 70s.
• 10:49
  So it's hard to give it anything to really go off of.
• 10:53
  I'm still in the camp that come spring we're going to get into
• 10:56
  our tightest supplies and the cattle that we do have after
• 10:59
  this, you know, January run that are going to be in pretty high
• 11:02
  demand because there's going to be a lot less of them.
• 11:04
  So I foresee, you know, some sideways trade action into maybe
• 11:09
  even March and then see it kind of heightened back up again.
• 11:13
  Let's go. And we got a lot of fat cattle
• 11:15
  for that time frame. So I hope you're right.
• 11:18
  God, I hope you're right. Jeez.
• 11:21
  Well, we've been a little too optimistic about everything
• 11:24
  going on. What's going on with the grain
• 11:25
  markets? Any any better news there, Dan,
• 11:28
  or are we still waiting for that government to shut back down?
• 11:32
  No, actually we're we're trying to build a base here, get a nice
• 11:36
  squared off bottom in the corn market old crop specifically.
• 11:39
  So you know, we're that squared off bottom was down at 427
• 11:44
  roughly in in the May and here we are, you know, knocking on a
• 11:47
  dime higher. So hoping that we put put some
• 11:50
  back on managed money's obviously put in short positions
• 11:54
  back on in the grain. So that's a limiting factor, but
• 11:58
  you know for the moment we're getting a little left.
• 12:00
  Let's hope we can hold it, possibly push back to that. 445
• 12:04
  would be a target where I think we need to move some grain
• 12:07
  seeing some of these bases offerings narrow a little bit,
• 12:10
  firm up. Obviously when you drop the corn
• 12:13
  market the whole quarter, the bases should firm up to get
• 12:16
  some, some grain out of the farmer's hands.
• 12:18
  So wheat market, same thing. There's a nice little uptrend
• 12:21
  line in that, in that market. So let's hope that that holds
• 12:24
  and we can build on that trend towards that 200 day moving
• 12:27
  average of five, 65567 in the in the Kansas City wheat.
• 12:32
  And, and I hope, I always say hope shouldn't hope and pray
• 12:37
  should never market on hopes and prayers.
• 12:38
  But at the same time, you know, we need something to help here
• 12:41
  because selling, selling corn at four and a quarter doesn't work
• 12:45
  for anybody in the country, no matter what the yields are.
• 12:47
  So if we can get back to that 4, fourty 5, you know, I'd, I'd be
• 12:51
  aggressive there. Start stepping out in a new crop
• 12:54
  as well and, and get some hedges on up above 450.
• 12:57
  So yeah, it's, you didn't want optimism, but I gave it to you.
• 13:01
  It's a It's a great day to smile.
• 13:04
  It is, it is a great day to smile.
• 13:06
  Quick question on great markets, how what are your thoughts on
• 13:08
  how our international markets are kind of playing into that
• 13:11
  right now? And I mean, we're obviously
• 13:13
  playing the line of demand, international markets, tariffs,
• 13:19
  all of the other things like the million things that are playing
• 13:20
  into it, right? And then there's the discussion
• 13:23
  of the farm bill and supplementing things and all of
• 13:25
  this stuff, right? But like what are kind of your
• 13:27
  thoughts on just the broader terms of demand, international
• 13:31
  markets and all that jazz as far as green goes?
• 13:33
  But I always ask everybody just calm down and take a breath
• 13:36
  because at the end of the day, price matters, right?
• 13:38
  You know, you could be bullish from 4:50, you could be bearish
• 13:41
  from 4:50, but that's going to look completely different at
• 13:43
  4:30. Price matters, right?
• 13:45
  So you just collapse the grain markets here last week and what
• 13:49
  are we going to do? We're going to entice new
• 13:51
  demand. If you liked it at 4:50, why
• 13:54
  wouldn't you buy some at 4:30 or four and a quarter?
• 13:56
  So, yeah, we're we're not in a great place.
• 14:00
  Obviously these tariff wars are going to have an effect on us.
• 14:02
  That's that's not ideal for our farmers anywhere.
• 14:06
  We want to be best friends with everybody.
• 14:08
  We want to sell all the soybeans to China and we want, we want to
• 14:11
  become the new the new place everybody comes to.
• 14:15
  We don't want them going to South America, then coming to us
• 14:17
  when they run out. At the end of the day, no price
• 14:20
  matters. So we can get all doom and gloom
• 14:23
  because we're in a trade war. But if we think back to the last
• 14:25
  time administration that put us in these trade wars, you know
• 14:28
  what, five years ago we had a rocky rough 2-3 years and then
• 14:34
  all of a sudden bam, we sold the ever 11 shit out of the corn.
• 14:38
  I mean, China stepped over and bought all the corn when we were
• 14:42
  priced, you know, sub $4.00. I believe it was coincidentally
• 14:45
  also at the time of COVID. But they they bought it all.
• 14:49
  They claimed it cleaned the house.
• 14:51
  So that Tutu balance sheet obviously is not bullish for a
• 14:56
  while here, but all of a sudden, let's say you get into this
• 14:59
  summer and we press corn back to that 380 mark or even $4.00 in
• 15:03
  the cash, you're going to entice new demand.
• 15:05
  So hopefully if that happens, we get a lot of export sales on the
• 15:09
  books and we could clean up that balance sheet a little bit.
• 15:12
  So just don't want to don't want to get all doom and gloom.
• 15:16
  There is normal seasonals that like to work as well.
• 15:19
  You know, we got to buy some acres here.
• 15:20
  Yeah, Cotton's not great, wheat's not great.
• 15:23
  It's hard to entice fringe acres into those markets, but at the
• 15:27
  same time, high inputs and, you know, 440 December corn also
• 15:32
  isn't all that appealing to those French Acres who normally,
• 15:36
  you know, 100 and 4000 and 60 bushel corn.
• 15:39
  So yeah, it's it's not ideal in the global were, you know,
• 15:44
  global space as far as grains are concerned.
• 15:47
  But it's just a matter of time and price.
• 15:51
  Time and price will get us over the hump.
• 15:53
  Yeah, absolutely. Anything else we missed or need
• 15:56
  to head on today for either of you guys?
• 15:59
  Well, it's that time of the month again.
• 16:00
  We've got another Catalan feed report coming out on Friday.
• 16:05
  Again, keeping that optimistic trend.
• 16:07
  You know, if it follows that pattern, I think, you know,
• 16:11
  obviously the numbers are going to be the bullish ones we've
• 16:13
  seen yet. That's not to say that USDA
• 16:16
  estimates don't ruin that, but I'm pretty confident that we'll
• 16:21
  see some pretty good numbers, bullish numbers anyway.
• 16:23
  And you got a biannual inventory report to go with it, So we'll
• 16:28
  see what they think we have for cows.
• 16:29
  That'll be a fun one. So yeah.
• 16:31
  Dan is ready to go March the streets with a pitchfork.
• 16:34
  Yeah, yeah, You're always just pushing that button, aren't you?
• 16:39
  You make it too easy to push you.
• 16:41
  Really do. It's just, it's a big red button
• 16:44
  just blaring right here and I just, I can't help myself.
• 16:49
  Well, just so you know, I am maturing and getting older and
• 16:52
  more wise because I noticed this morning when I was ripping on my
• 16:55
  children for not being ready for school, I caught myself saying
• 16:58
  what have you done already this morning?
• 17:00
  I've been out and fed the cattle.
• 17:02
  What have you accomplished? So I felt like a full blown dad
• 17:07
  at that moment. So we're getting older, we're
• 17:08
  getting wiser. You never know, I might calm
• 17:11
  down in my old age. Boy, no, I I can just imagine
• 17:17
  that scenario happening and you're like thinking in your
• 17:19
  head. Yep, I feel just like my father
• 17:22
  in this scenario. Here we go again, boys and
• 17:24
  girls. Full disclosure, they're only
• 17:27
  five years old, but the the fact remains they could have done
• 17:31
  more. So yeah, it's all good.
• 17:33
  The joys, The joys. Well, anything else we need to
• 17:35
  head on today, guys? All righty, awesome, awesome.
• 17:38
  Well, to all of our listeners out there, thanks for listening
• 17:41
  to another episode of the Cattle USA Daily podcast.
• 17:44
  If you want to get a hold of Dan Samantha, anyone else on our
• 17:47
  team to discuss coverage for you and your operation, make sure
• 17:50
  you check out the show notes down below and get a hold of
• 17:53
  them and just have that conversation and see what works
• 17:56
  best for you and your operation. Dan Samantha, thank you for your
• 17:59
  time as always and to everyone listening, we will see you all
• 18:01
  next time on another episode. Have a good one y'all.