Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 129 - 9/27/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 129 - 9/27/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:17
Hello, and welcome to episode 129 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Friday, the weekend is upon us, the work week is over
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and boy do we have a lot to talk about and a lot to get to on
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today's podcast. I have a 7 pack of sweats for
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you today guys. We're going to be looking at 2
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college football games tonight, some Friday Night Lights
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matchups with some sharp buybacks, some good RLM, and a
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couple of hazmat dogs that I'm eyeing.
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So I'll give you my two bets here in college football.
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Also going to continue to test our hypothesis and our theory
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when it comes to Major League Baseball because I am focusing
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on five more bets for you, all of which are unders.
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Let's see if we get some unders to cash as the season, regular
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season that is, winds down. Then we're going to look toward
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the weekend because I have a lot to talk about for this weekend,
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including four college football games that caught my eye as well
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as five NFL plays, including three epic fade the trendy dogs.
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You might know about two of them, but it took me a while to
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kind of, you know, pick up on this one.
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But we got another one that I'm excited to share with you.
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So hoping that this contrarian favorite can come through at
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home against a pretty good team. It's going to be a dicey one,
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but then also we're going to get some UFC back in our lives, some
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fighting. I have a UFC fighter for you
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with a very sharp line move. He's only getting 27% of bets
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but 77% of money with a youth advantage and a good sharp line
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move in his favor. So stay tuned for a UFC play.
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But before we dive in our sweats for today, guys, how about
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continuing our winning streak? Three straight days of in the
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green here, winning days 2 and 1 + 0.82 units last night.
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And we also got a little bit of luck from the gambling gods.
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That's right, the Giants game last night.
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Now it started off pretty good because our guy Wandale Robinson
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went over 35 1/2 receiving yards midway through the second
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quarter. So we had that one in our back
2:18
pocket and then we said, OK, now all we need is the G men.
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And what a sweat that was. I'm still dripping from the G
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men last night. They end up covering the number
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+5 and 1/2. A lot of people say 5 1/2 is a
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dead man, dead, dead zone, no man's land, whatever you want to
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call it. What was important last night I
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gave you the example of a 27 to 20 or what was it, 2520 or 2722
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type of final score where the hook could be critical with the
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five and a half. It was also critical 20 to 15.
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With the hook. We capture the G men.
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But the important thing there was that Aubrey, this insane
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kicker who came out of nowhere and is nailing like 100 yard
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field goals left and right. I saw the back breaking
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agonizing loss. It was almost like watching a
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car crash guys, because if you remember watching that game last
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night, you're hanging by a thread.
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Down by 5. The Cowboys have the ball.
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They're going down the field getting ready to kick a field
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goal to make it an 8 point game with no time left, which would
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have killed our 5 1/2. I was hoping they would maybe
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find a way to run out the clock and just end it at A5 point
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game. And I said, oh, here we go.
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They're going to get greedy. They're going to kick a
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meaningless field goal. Al Michaels, even on the
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broadcast, Michaels mentioned something about, oh, there's a
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lot of people who are very happy they're going to attempt a field
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goal. There's a lot of people who are
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very upset about this. Well, I think the gambling God
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smiled upon us because this guy Aubrey, who's kicking literally
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60 yard field goals left and right, I think it was a 51
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yarder, which if he made it would have killed our Giants.
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Plus 5 1/2. It was wide right, wide right,
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baby. You know, Carlton Fisk back in
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the day, I wasn't born. My dad always tells me about it.
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He's waving it. You know, there's the great
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scene in Goodwill hunting. He's waving it fair.
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Well, I was waving this one foul.
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And wouldn't you know it, we got a little luck there.
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It went wide right and we are able to catch our plus 5 1/2.
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But Oh my God, when when they brought him out to make that
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kick, I'm like, OK, great. I'm going to lose it.
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This is terrible. I was staring a loss right in
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the face and then a little stroke of luck went our way.
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He missed it and gained a big ticket there for us with the +5
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and half. So I will take it every day,
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every time. And you know what?
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I think it's OK to be happy for luck breaking your way because a
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lot of times luck doesn't break your way.
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So sometimes it's with you, sometimes it's against you.
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But we were on that contrarian side against the public with
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some good sharp betting system matches.
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And the G men came through. The only loser it was Miami,
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under 8 1/2. That thing went to extra
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innings. If you're watching that game,
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there's a play at the plate which would've been a force out.
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The catcher I think was Jeffers went right out of his glove run
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score. There's another play where it
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should have ended the game shortstop through it to first
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guys foot was off the bag. They let that run in.
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So what are you going to do? Couldn't get that one.
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But either way, guys, our third straight winning day 2 and 1 +
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0.82 units paced by a nice two and O in the NFL.
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So let's see if we can make extend our winning streak now to
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four straight going into the weekend.
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So let's talk about our sweats here for tonight.
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I want to start off with college football now if you remember
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about a week ago, we went three and O in college and they were
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all gross dogs. Well, hopefully we can go 2 and
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O or at least one and one with a couple dogs here tonight.
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So first on the board, let's talk about Virginia Tech and
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Miami. Now this one's interesting.
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Virginia Tech 730 PPM game. It's on ESPN.
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They come in the Hokies 2 and two lost to Rutgers 2623 last
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week, lost outright as a three-point home favorite.
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Meanwhile, Miami four and O ranked 7th in the country, just
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crushed South Florida 50 to 15, easily covered as a 16 point Rd.
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favorite. So in terms of the betting
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market and how it's reacted to this game, we open this game as
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low as Miami -14 at home, immediately got adjusted up to
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-16 1/2, got to 17, even got up as high as 19 1/2.
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It's early in the week. It was all movement toward
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Miami. And that makes sense because no
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one wants to play Virginia Tech Everybody and their mother is on
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Miami. The you tonight are getting 82%
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of spread bets. So right up our alley here of
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going contrarian heavily bet primetime games is the game
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that's going to be on the bar wherever you're at across
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America tonight. Everyone's going to say, yeah,
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laid the points of Miami. They're going to crush them and
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maybe they will, but I hope not. So number one, we have great
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contrarian value to go VAT tech. I'm going VAT tech plus 17 1/2.
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They're only getting across the market 18% of spread bets,
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unbelievably. What a massive contrarian
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opportunity is only getting 18% of spread bets.
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But it's not just a pure contrarian play.
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There has been buyback on Vitech.
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Vitech topped out at plus 19 1/2.
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I think I saw one book that got to plus 20 and ever since it got
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to that number, it didn't go through that number.
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It's been all buyback over the last 24 hours.
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So the 20's, the 19 and a halfs are now down to 17 1/2.
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And I see some shops that are juiced like maybe it gets back
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to 17. So I'm going to hold my nose and
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take the contrarian dog here with VAA Tech.
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Now couple things to like about this one.
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Not only is your top contrarian play of the night bet against
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the public, but also we have a buy low unranked verse ranked
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opponent buying low on Virginia Tech, who's unranked verse
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Miami, who's overvalued because they played well and the public
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thinks there's, you know, a locomotive here, a steam engine,
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whatever you want to call them. However, Virginia Tech also has
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that conference dog opportunity here with the built in
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familiarity leveling the playing field, benefiting the team
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getting points and they're also pretty good correlative betting
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dogs like their dog getting 17 1/2 more than two touchdowns and
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the total in this one is 54. I actually saw some under money
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coming at open as high as 56 1/2.
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So think of it this way. If that's going to stay around a
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54 total, you know, it's going to be difficult for Miami to
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cover that number in such a low total game, like 54 in the NFL.
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That's a high total, 54 in college, it's really not that
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high. We're used to 60s, even 70s
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sometimes. So we have that correlative
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betting. We have that unranked, first
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ranked, super contrarian opportunity.
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I mentioned the total did fall. Looks like it's going to be a
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little bit windy at Hard Rock tonight.
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It's in Miami. Obviously hope everyone's OK
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with the hurricane here. But when I saw that 18% on
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Vitek, I said, hey, this is a contrarian play for us.
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Bet against the public data-driven betters.
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But I like the sharp buyback. And then I'll throw this at you.
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If you look at Rhythm, the Rhythm AI predicted model has
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Miami -12.4. So if Miami's you know, again
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Rhythm is predicting around a 12 point game, we're getting 17 1/2
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and we're against all the drunk guys at the bar.
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I'm going to take a shot here in VOT Tech guys can be Virginia
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Tech. Can you lose by 17 or less?
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I took the Hokies at plus 17 1/2 Next game, Washington and
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Rutgers 8:00. This one is on Fox tonight.
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Washington comes in three and one just beat down Northwestern
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24 to 5 covered as an 11 1/2 point home favorite.
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Meanwhile, Rutgers 3 and O just mention them but they upset VOT
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Tech 2623 as a three-point Rd. dog last week.
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So this game open Rutgers as a three-point home favorite and
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the public is all over Rutgers. They're undefeated.
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They had a good upset win last week.
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Washington we all know how great they were last year going to the
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championship game ended up getting rolled by Michigan.
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But for every reason public is all over the Rutgers train.
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Currently Rutgers across the market is getting 70% of spread
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bets. But you guys I'm sure you notice
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this. The line isn't going to Rutgers,
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it's going to Washington. Huskies went from +3 down to
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plus 1 1/2. Why take a step back?
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Why is the line going to the Huskies if 7 out of 10 bets are
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going Rutgers? Well, tells us that we got smart
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money here going with Washington.
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So you would have loved to have grabbed Washington.
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Key number of three at this point, you know the best we're
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going to get is 1 1/2, so I'm going to go Washington plus 1
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1/2. I'm kicking myself for not.
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I noticed this and I should have mentioned earlier in the week
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that's my fault as we try to get out ahead of some of these
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numbers, but I'm going to still have some faith here.
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Hopefully in terms of a good rhythm edge, even though it's
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three down to 1 1/2, we're on the contrarian side.
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I got some good system matches here, some RLM.
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You also look at short Rd. Dogs getting 4 or less.
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They're 54% against the spread since 2012.
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They've had a good defense. The Huskies have only given up
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41 points this year. Rutgers has given up 47 and
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Friday night Rd. Dogs, remember we had a great
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Friday night last night or last week.
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They're eight and two against the spread so far this season,
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80%. Now, I mentioned rhythm.
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Maybe this will give you a little more confidence even
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though you're kicking yourself for not getting the three.
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I have one rhythm system match that says this should be a 0.8
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spread. So basically Washington should
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be getting less than a point. I have another rhythm edge, a
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rhythm model here that says Washington should be favored by
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1.3 points. So I'm going to go with this
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sharp line move. Guys, everyone's playing Rutgers
10:51
yet. The lines going to Washington.
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I'm going to go with the sharp contrarian reverse line move and
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a heavily bet primetime game. Give me the Huskies at plus 1
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1/2. So we got, if you want to play
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it with me, Vatek plus 17 1/2 and Washington plus 1 1/2.
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Now over to some Major League Baseball as we continue our
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breakdown here for tonight. First bet on the board for me.
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Let's go to Kansas City and Atlanta.
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Now going to this one, we have Brady Singer on the bump for
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Kansas City. He's nine and twelve 3.73 era.
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He'll be opposed by Max Freed, who's 10 and ten 3.42 era.
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What are we seeing across the market here?
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Well, nothing but sharp under movement, especially when it
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comes to the juice. So this total open at 7 1/2.
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It was around -110 both sides. Now it's 7 1/2 under -115 -,
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120. A massive low bets, higher
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dollars bet split. Only 18% of bets are going under
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KC Atlanta, but 73% of dollars are going under so that really
11:51
jives with that really juiced up under.
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Again, ask yourself why you got to pay such a price to play the
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under. Well, mostly because wise guy
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money is playing the under. Both these teams have been good
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under teams. Atlanta is actually the best
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under team in baseball. They're 91 and 59 to the under
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61% Royals are the 4th best under team in baseball. 86 and
12:11
6856%. Atlanta is the number one under
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team at home. At home they are 50 and 25 to
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the under 67% and a little bit of weather, hopefully to our
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advantage here. I know that Hurricane Helene is
12:26
going up through Georgia, but they should play this game
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tonight. But the wind is blowing in from
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dead center 10 mph. So it'll be a windy under system
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match, hopefully knocking down a warning track or a first row
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home run to a warning track fly ball.
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Atlanta's rested. Haven't played in the last
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couple days, so fresh pen. This would also be a contrarian
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unders for winning teams. 2 good teams, maybe you get that four
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to 3/4 to 2/3 to one type game. But I noticed that bet split
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18%, bet 73%. Money really juiced under couple
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good under teams. My first plate Titan baseball is
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under 7 1/2. I got it at -115 for KC and
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Atlanta. Another under play for you and
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we don't even know the pitcher, but it tells me smart money
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still likes this one. I'm going Colorado in the
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Dodgers at Coors Field. Under 11 1/2 now.
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It's a high total, but what's to me is public doesn't know where
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to go. It's 5050 on the ticket count,
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but 67% of money is going under and the total open 11 1/2 under
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like -110 now it's 11 1/2 under -115 -. 120 looks like it may
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have been creeping down to 11. So the hook could be the hook
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could be important here. 65 game, eight to three-game, seven
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to four-game. Again, we want to cash that
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under with the hook. So make sure you find it should
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be pretty widely available. Now we know Cal Quantrell is
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pitching for Colorado 8 and ten 4.72 ERA.
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It's TBD for LA Dodgers. I saw one book that was showing
13:53
Casparius BI don't even know who this pitcher is.
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Ben. I can't even find his name but
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it's unofficial. But it tells me that even though
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we don't know who the Dodgers starter will be, you can still
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see those totals out there and they still getting or getting
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hit to the under. Now, maybe partly in terms of
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this under would be Dodgers just clinched last night.
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Maybe they're I saw Freddie Freeman was banged UPS.
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Maybe they put in some scrub players.
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They don't. Maybe they rest Otani.
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I don't know Mookie bets. So maybe you have less Thunder
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power for for the Dodgers lineup.
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But here's one thing to look out for when the total is 10 1/2 or
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more at Coors Field. I mentioned this earlier this
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week. The under is 37 and 2956%
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overall. Coors Field unders are 55% this
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year. And we do have 75° in Colorado,
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but the wind is blowing in five to seven mph.
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So don't exactly know who the pitcher is for Dodgers, but this
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totals out there. Dodgers are a big favorite, like
14:49
-180 and yet we're seeing sharp under money.
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So I'm going to go Dodgers in Colorado under.
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Make sure you find the hook under 11 1/2.
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Next one. Did you guys know that Jacob
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degrom is back in baseball? Jacob degrom against Reed
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Detmer's tonight, Texas Angels 9:38 PM Eastern Time.
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Give me the under 7 1/2 this total open seven and a half
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around -110 both sides. Now it's 7 1/2 under -115 -, 120
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only 34% of bets, but 50% of money is on the under degrom O&O
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1.35 ERA. Since he's returned, Reed
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Detmer's hasn't been great four and eight 6.67 ERA.
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But Texas Detmer's is a lefty is only hitting 235 against
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lefties. That's 19th in baseball.
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These are two of the lower scoring teams in baseball.
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Texas only averaging 4.2 runs per game.
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LA is averaging 3.9. So hopefully we get a low
15:44
scoring game here. And the Angels are 81 and 73 to
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the under this year. 8th best under team in baseball.
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But here's another juiced up under.
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Hopefully degrom pitch as well. Let's see if we can get an under
15:56
here. Texas LA under 7 1/2.
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Another under play for you as we continue our under experiment,
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which has been pretty decent so far.
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Seattle, Oakland under 7 1/2. This is a 10:10 PM Eastern Time.
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First pitch, we have JP Sears going for Oakland.
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He is 11 and 12, four .43 ERA. He'll be opposed by Brian Wu,
16:17
who's 8 and 3 three-point O2 ERA.
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What are we seeing across the market here?
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Well, this total open round 7F under -110 -, 115.
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Now it's 7F under -115 -, 120. So it looks like there's some
16:30
liability here on the under. A great bet split to the under,
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only 36% of bets, but 63% of dollars on the under, which
16:39
coincides with that under juice movement.
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Now the roof is expected to be open and that's a good thing
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because the wind is blowing in 10 mph.
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So another windy under system match.
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We do have Seattle favored by like -170 -, 180.
16:54
So hopefully they're, you know, they're up and don't have to bat
16:56
in the bottom of the ninth to the lower scoring teams in
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baseball. Seattle 4 points, 1-6 runs 21st
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Oakland 3.9826. Sears has been better on the
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road, 3.73 ERA versus 5.29 at home.
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He's also been better at night, 3.4 O versus 5.4 in the day.
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And Brian Wu has been really good at home, 2.7 O ERA.
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Seattle, by the way, is 44 and 28 to the under at home, 61%
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That is the best under ballpark and Major League Baseball.
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So Oakland, Seattle juiced up under.
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Let's get a low scoring game. I'll take a four to three-game.
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I'm sure we'll have to sweat it, but give me under 7 1/2.
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At -115 Oakland, Seattle, last bit of the night for you.
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One more late night under 10:15 PM Eastern Time.
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Saint Louis and San Francisco give me under 7 1/2.
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This pitching matchup is Miles Michaelis going for Saint Louis.
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He's nine and eleven 5.35 ERA. He'll be opposed by Landon Roop,
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who's one in one 2.7 O ERA. However, if you'll get a total,
18:00
it's been all under liability. This total open seven and a
18:03
half. Actually, this is low as -110 -.
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1 O 5 to the under completely now flipped to -120 to the
18:09
under. And that's notable because 74%
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of bets are going over, yet the juice is expensive to the under.
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So only 26% of bets under, but nearly 40% money is on the
18:19
under. Landon Roop has been really good
18:21
in September. He's made five appearances.
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He has an ERA of 0.9 and these are two of the better under
18:27
teams in baseball. Saint Louis is the 7th best
18:29
under team, 82 and 7154%. San Fran is 42 and 34 to the
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under at home, 55%. So that's the 7th best, tied for
18:41
the 7th best under team. Especially at home.
18:44
You always get those weird by the Bay, like it's kind of
18:47
colder typically the winds blowing in sometimes.
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But I'm going to root for a lower scoring game there.
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So five overall. Can we get three or more?
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Kansas City, Atlanta under 7 1/2.
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Colorado under 11 1/2 Texas, LA under 7 1/2 Seattle Oakland
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under 7 1/2 Saint Louis, San Fran under 7 1/2 Now over to
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some pointing in the UFC because it's been a it's been a week
19:12
since we've had to wait and sweat UFC and remember we had AI
19:16
think it was a 12 or 13 St. winning game or about winning
19:20
streak, whatever you want to call it.
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And we end up losing our last one.
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So we got to start a new streak here.
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So for my one play in the UFC, which is UFC Fight Night,
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Moicano versus Saint Denis, and I believe this is in Paris, I'm
19:35
going to go to the preliminary card and I'm going to go to a
19:38
lightweight bout between Bola, Bolaji Okie and Chris Duncan,
19:44
and I'm going to go with Bolaji Okie.
19:48
OK I or Okie, I don't even know how to pronounce it, but the
19:51
first thing I notice, Bolaji Okie.
19:53
Remember when it comes to fighting younger, taller, longer
19:56
reach line move, low bets, higher dollar system match and
19:59
then hopefully you have other variables in in your favor.
20:03
So the first thing I noticed about Bolaji Okai or Oki is that
20:08
when I got my e-mail from John Ewing, my buddy from Bet MGM
20:11
this morning, I pop it open. I looked at all the numbers and
20:14
what jumped out to me first is the bet split.
20:17
Bolaji Oki is only getting 27% of bets but 77% of money.
20:25
What's also notable is that the line did move in his favor.
20:27
He open around -185 he's up to -190 some shops even closer to
20:32
-200 so shop around. Should find around a -, 190
20:35
still available, but again, only 27% bets, 77% money.
20:41
Flip it the other way. You're getting 73% of bets on
20:44
Dunkin, yet the lines going to Okie or Okie.
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So he has the line movement. He's got a great bet split.
20:50
His nickname is the Zulu Warrior, so it's pretty, pretty
20:53
cool. He's 28 years old.
20:56
Duncan is 31, so a three-year youth advantage.
20:59
Now they're both 5 foot 8, but Okie has a 73 inch reach versus
21:04
71.5 for Duncan. So a little bit of a reach
21:06
advantage. Then let's go to the variables
21:09
or the intangibles. Okie has won nine straight
21:12
bouts. He's 28 years old, one nine
21:15
straight. Oozing with confidence and
21:17
momentum right now. Significant strikes per minute,
21:20
5.18 for Okie, Duncan 4.88. So he dishes out more
21:25
punishment, Okie, that is defensively, Okie is giving up
21:29
2.53 significant strikes per minute versus Duncan's giving up
21:33
3.65 S Okie does a better job of protecting himself.
21:38
A lot of punishment taken by Duncan and then lastly blocking.
21:42
Significant strikes. 64% for Okie, only 49% for Duncan, but
21:47
when I saw 27% bets, 77% money and a line move in his favor,
21:51
Then we add in the youth advantage of the reach advantage
21:55
coming in hot, winning nine straight dishes out more
21:58
punishment, better defensively. That was enough for me.
22:01
So I'm going to go Bolaji oki, BOLAJI oki or okai.
22:07
OK, I and I got him at -190 so let's start a new streak with
22:12
Bolaji Okai. Now over to this weekend.
22:15
Just gave you a UFC fight. Let's look at our card here for
22:19
both college football and NFL. So starting with college
22:22
football, biggest game of the week, I'm going with Bama baby
22:27
Georgia, Alabama 7:30 PM primetime matchup.
22:31
Hopefully you got a + 2 1/2. I was able to get Bama plus 2
22:34
1/2 earlier this week. Good thing, bad thing is that
22:37
good thing is the line keeps going to Bama, the side we
22:40
identified as a sharp side. But a lot of books are down to 1
22:43
1/2. So if that's all you can get,
22:44
I'll play the 1 1/2 now, but hopefully you're able to have a
22:47
2 1/2 in pocket. And we talked about this game
22:49
earlier this week. Why do I like Bama lines going
22:52
in their favor. Most heavily backing of the
22:53
week. Yet Georgia is the public side.
22:56
Georgia's getting 60% of bets, Bama's only getting 40%.
22:59
Yet the lines going to Bama that also be a reverse line move
23:03
heavily back game contrarian. Most heavily backing of the
23:05
week, conference dog, built in familiarity, leveling the
23:08
playing field. And then when I pop open rhythm,
23:12
I have rhythm at basically a pick em and some shops even have
23:15
has one rhythm system match. Has Bama actually slightly
23:18
favored in this 1 -, 0.2 points. So again, I, I really hope you
23:23
got the plus 2 1/2 when we mentioned it earlier this week.
23:26
If not, I'll take the 1 1/2. But I got to go Bama in that
23:29
one. This one shocked me because I
23:31
got greedy and was trying to get like a 2 1/2 or a three.
23:34
Guess what? Have you guys seen the Auburn,
23:36
Oklahoma line? Now, we talked to Auburn earlier
23:39
in the week because everyone is playing Oklahoma, but they open
23:42
-3 they got down to like -2 - 1 1/2.
23:46
Now it's flipped in and Auburn is favored.
23:49
Auburn guys is down -1 this line is hop the fence in favor of
23:53
Auburn. Why is that notable?
23:55
Because 89% of bets are going to Oklahoma.
23:58
Auburn's only getting 11% of bets, but they just had reverse
24:02
line movement and just hop the fence, fade the trendy dog, dog
24:05
to fave line move. So tells me we got a flood of
24:09
sharp action on Auburn. If you missed the points.
24:11
This is now a money line play for me.
24:14
I'll be unranked, first ranked top contrarian play of the week.
24:17
But when I saw that, I was like, Oh my God, I did a double check
24:19
and it's true. Auburn is favored now by about a
24:22
point and they're just like, it may go to 1 1/2.
24:24
So I'm going to go money line here.
24:27
Dog to fave Auburn money line -120 Baylor money line,
24:33
unranked, home fave ranked opponent.
24:34
Everyone's playing BYU 75%. I get it, they're undefeated,
24:39
they're ranked. Baylor's off a loss and
24:40
unranked. But this thing opened, you know
24:43
-2 1/2 -, 2 round Baylor. It's up to three Baylor.
24:48
Even though Publix playing BYU, you guys know that.
24:51
The deal here. Unranked, first ranked,
24:54
unranked, home fave ranked opponent.
24:56
It's been one of our go to systems.
24:58
It actually now matches with Auburn, but we knew it matched
25:01
with Baylor all week. Also, the fact that Baylor
25:04
opened as a favorite even though oddsmakers knew everyone to play
25:07
BYU and the trendy points unranked home fave ranked
25:10
opponent on the money line. 68 percent, 10% ROI since 2017.
25:15
Baylor's only getting 25% bets but 54% money.
25:19
So I money line Baylor earlier this week.
25:21
I got him at -150. Now this one surprised me.
25:25
I played Arkansas earlier this week.
25:28
I want to say it +4 or 4 1/2, thinking it would maybe get back
25:32
down because at one point Arkansas got down to 3 1/2.
25:35
Well, I must admit I didn't see this coming.
25:38
Texas A&M is now up to -6 five and a half six.
25:41
So it looks like a lot of money has come back on Texas A&M.
25:45
I'm going to stick with Arkansas here.
25:47
Like, I'll play my bad 4. If you want to play it, you can
25:49
now get a six. I'm not going to double down.
25:52
I'm going to stick with my bad number.
25:53
I'm just not going to. I'm not the kind of person who,
25:55
you know, again, if I make a mistake, I'm going to stick with
25:57
it and live with it. I'm not going to double down.
25:59
But if you haven't bet the game yet, you can get Arkansas +6.
26:03
Wary of the buyback toward the Aggies, but Arkansas still only
26:06
getting 42% bets, 62% money on ranked.
26:09
First ranked, and maybe this will give you a little more
26:12
confidence. Rhythm is predicting Arkansas
26:15
plus 2.4. Remember, this is a neutral site
26:18
at Jerry's World in Dallas, so I'm surprised.
26:21
Texas. I'm shocked that Auburn flipped
26:23
to a favorite. And I'm kind of pretty surprised
26:25
here too, that A&M got all the way, got all the way to six.
26:28
I'd love to see it top out at six, start to come back down.
26:31
But if you want to play Arkansas as a conference dog again with a
26:36
rhythm, 2.4 + 6 is now available to you with Arkansas.
26:40
So Bama in the points, Auburn money line, Baylor money line in
26:44
Arkansas in the points. Now over to the NFL couple
26:47
games. We already talked about a couple
26:49
new ones. I am money lining the Atlanta
26:51
Falcons at home 1:00 against New Orleans.
26:55
Nothing but movement toward Atlanta this game open Atlanta
26:57
-1 Now they're up to -2 1/2 looking like they may go to
27:00
three. Why is that important?
27:02
Because Publix on New Orleans Atlanta's only getting 37% of
27:05
bets but 55% of money and the line moved in their favor.
27:09
So this would be 1 of many. Faye the trendy dog plays for
27:12
me. Trendy dog is New Orleans lines
27:14
going to Atlanta. I money lined Atlanta at -130
27:18
Green Bay. We talked about this one as
27:20
well. Are we going to see Jordan love?
27:21
I don't know Malik Willis, Jordan love Either way, pros
27:25
like Green Bay, everyone and their mother is on Minnesota.
27:28
I get it. They're getting points.
27:30
This is the quote UN quote wrong team is favored play public is
27:34
happy to take Sam Darnold in the points here.
27:36
But we opened -1 1/2 - 2 Green Bay.
27:40
They're up to 2 1/2, even 3, even though 71% of bets are
27:43
going Minnesota. So that tells me we have a sharp
27:46
reverse line move on Green Bay. Only 29% bets, but 53% money.
27:51
And I have a rhythm system that says Green Bay should be -3.8.
27:54
So I money line Green Bay -145 Here's a play made earlier this
27:59
week. Carolina plus 4 1/2.
28:01
Still digging the four and a half here with Carolina.
28:04
Public is on Cincinnati 70% of bets, but Cincinnati opened as
28:09
high as -7 - 5 1/2. Now it's down to 4 1/2.
28:13
So lines moving to Carolina, even though Publix on Cincy,
28:16
Andy Dalton has a dog 57% against the spread and we had
28:20
another big dog bark last night. But if you are a dog that is 4
28:25
1/2 points or more, 16 and 6 ATS 73% this year.
28:30
So I'm going Red Rifle revenge here.
28:32
Carolina plus 4 1/2. I have a rhythm system that says
28:35
it should be a 2.5 spread. Mentioned Washington already
28:38
played them, plus 3 1/2. Sticking with that one, they
28:41
open as high as 4 1/2. That's a 5050 move.
28:44
Bets are down the middle. Public doesn't know what to do.
28:46
But line went to Washington. And we do have a 3 1/2 juiced
28:51
up, like you make it down to three.
28:52
So if you like Washington, probably want to take the hook
28:54
sooner rather than later. And I have two rhythm edges.
28:57
One rhythm system says it should be a 0.7 spread in favor of
29:00
Arizona. One says actually Washington
29:03
should be favored -1.6. So 2 good rhythm edges there,
29:07
but I'm on the points there with Washington plus 3 1/2.
29:11
Then the last game that I hinted at when we started the pod and I
29:14
told you there was a fade, the trendy dog play that for
29:17
whatever reason took me a while to identify.
29:20
It's the Baltimore Ravens, guys. Buffalo, Baltimore, Sunday Night
29:24
Football, 8:20 PM Eastern Time. Everybody is playing Buffalo.
29:29
I get it. Buffalo looks great to start the
29:31
year, but the Buffalo Bills are getting 65% of spread bets,
29:36
nearly 70%. But this game actually opened
29:39
Baltimore as a favorite. Baltimore open like -1 1/2 -, 2.
29:46
Now it's up to 2 1/2 and may even get to three.
29:49
The public thinks the wrong team is favorite, but the sign keeps
29:52
showing liability. Baltimore, even though public is
29:54
going Buffalo. So this is a contrarian
29:57
favorite. Like the one thing I love about
29:58
Baltimore in particular is that they're only getting 35% of bets
30:03
in the most heavily back game of the week, Sunday Night Football.
30:06
So in a in a heavily back game, we like hazmat dogs that are
30:09
contrarian or contrarian favorites that are gross and no
30:12
one wants to touch. So I'm going to stick with the
30:15
kind of trust in the the spot a fade, the trendy dog play
30:19
Baltimore. I mean, you're also betting
30:20
against Buffalo at their highest peak.
30:22
So you feel like you're selling high in Baltimore or sorry,
30:25
selling high in Buffalo. Who's four and O or three and O,
30:28
but I love this spot for Baltimore, again, a contrarian.
30:31
This is very rare. You don't get contrarian
30:33
favorites on Sunday Night Football.
30:35
Only getting 35% of bets and the line is moving in their
30:38
direction again, 1 1/2 now up to 2 1/2.
30:41
So that's a money line play for me.
30:42
I'm going to go Baltimore to hopefully win this damn game.
30:46
I got him on the money line at -135 S Baltimore money line,
30:50
Washington 3 1/2 Carolina 4 1/2 Green Bay money line, Atlanta
30:54
money line. Lastly, as we wrap up today's
30:57
pod on a big Friday, I want to invite you all to the live
31:00
stream. The Sunday Sweats live stream
31:03
presented by Garage Beer and powered by Rhythm. 11:00 AM
31:07
Eastern Time on Sunday. Myself and my buddy James Santor
31:10
will be doing what we've been doing the last three Sundays,
31:13
which is an hour Long live stream on Twitter.
31:17
You can just click the Twitter account for my profile or the
31:20
rhythm profile. You also see it pop in the top
31:22
right. When we go live, we'll be
31:24
breaking down all the games, the rhythm edges, late moves.
31:27
We'll be asked answering some questions if you guys have any,
31:30
but hope to see you all there. 11:00 AM Eastern Time for Sunday
31:33
sweats. Lastly, as we wrap up the pod, I
31:36
want to start off with a request.
31:39
Could you please do me a big favor and give this podcast a
31:41
five star review? It would go a long way to
31:44
continuing to build momentum as well as respect in the charts.
31:49
But it'll only take you a second.
31:50
And if you enjoy the pod, please give it five stars.
31:54
Also, if you enjoy this data-driven approach to sports
31:57
betting and you want to learn more about data-driven betting,
32:00
guess what? I know exactly what you should
32:01
do. You should go buy my book.
32:03
I wrote a book, it's called the Everything Guide to Sports
32:05
Betting. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
32:08
the Everything Guide to Sports Betting, pick up a copy for you
32:11
or for a friend. It's got everything I've learned
32:13
in the industry, guys. How lines are set, how and why
32:15
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
32:17
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
32:20
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
32:23
It makes a great stocking stuffer or gift to a colleague,
32:27
a friend, a family member. But it's really, I think if
32:30
you're new to betting or just getting into it and have no
32:33
freaking clue how to how to how to identify sharp action or no
32:36
blueprint, how to attack lines. This is going to provide you a
32:40
blueprint which you can grind to a profit.
32:42
So pick up my book, buy it for a friend, the everything guide to
32:45
sports betting. Bring it to the book.
32:47
I'll sign it for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale
32:50
and we'll sweat some sharp contrain place together next.
32:54
Have you taken advantage of Juice Real and Rhythm?
32:57
Well, Juice Real and Rhythm and Rhythm are my two favorite
32:59
sports betting apps. They're fantastic.
33:01
They help me win. I know they're going to help you
33:03
win, but they can only help you win if you download the app.
33:06
So I want you to click the description of this pod, whether
33:09
you're on Spotify or iTunes. It'll say something like, you
33:12
know. In episode 129, Josh dishes out
33:15
a ton of Friday sweats with UFC, NFL, College, yada yada.
33:20
Scroll down. Past that, you're gonna see a
33:22
link to Juice Real and Rhythm. Click those customized links and
33:26
then you will be ready to go once you download the apps.
33:29
And Rhythm is great for the AI backed best bet plays and
33:33
predictions for both game bets and player props.
33:35
Rhythm helped us cache the G Men and Wandell Robinson last night
33:39
and then Juice Real is great for their AI driven best bet picks
33:43
that come out at noon each day, as well as the arbitrage
33:46
opportunities. Syncing up your sports books,
33:48
the sharp mush plays that I love and the actual dollar breakdowns
33:51
on games which you really can't find anywhere else.
33:53
Everyone always asks where's that money coming from?
33:55
It's coming from people who have a Juice Reel account and have
33:58
synced up their sports books. It's important you got to sync
34:00
up your books, that way you can get access to that data.
34:03
But they're both great apps and again, you should go download
34:06
them prior to another big weekend of betting.
34:09
But that about does it. Everybody enjoy your Friday
34:11
night. My wife's birthday is she turns
34:15
34 taking her out to dinner on Sunday.
34:17
She told me I can't watch football.
34:19
I hope I can watch the Patriots game, but it's a big weekend.
34:22
So wish my wife a happy birthday and hopefully she'll bring us
34:25
some good luck in the betting market.
34:27
She brought us good luck last night with Aubrey going wide
34:30
right. But as always, guys, whether I
34:32
see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
34:35
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
34:37
Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
34:40
Park Casino or MGM Springfield. And my neck of the woods in
34:43
Massachusetts are out in the desert where the true grinders
34:46
get down or Billy Walter sends his number runners where the
34:49
lowest use possible is found. The South Point Sweat and sharp
34:52
Contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when
34:54
Aubrey goes wide right. You're going to show me a Giants
34:57
plus 5 1/2 ticket. You're going to show me a Wandel
35:00
Robinson over 35 1/2 receiving yards ticket.
35:03
First one's on me, next one's on you.
35:05
We're going to post about the book Sweat and sharp contrarian
35:07
plays all night long. So have a great weekend
35:09
everyone. Enjoy your Friday night and as
35:12
always, stay sharp, stay contrary and bet against the
35:14
public. Place yourself on the side of
35:16
the house. Always be with the smart money,
35:17
never against it will smart money when every time, not
35:20
always anything can happen in a one off, but smart money over
35:24
the long haul it does win a majority of the time, 55 to 60%.
35:28
That's why we always want to be against the public with the
35:30
house, with the pros Flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
35:34
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors,
35:37
so look forward to seeing you on Sunday.
35:39
For the Rhythm Sunday sweats again, you can just follow my
35:42
Twitter account at Josh under score Insights will go live at
35:45
11:00 AM Eastern Time, and then we'll be back at it on Monday.
35:49
And by the way, there's a Monday Night Football doubleheader, so
35:51
stay tuned for that. We'll talk about it all when I
35:54
see you guys again on Monday for episode 130 of the All Systems
35:58
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
36:01
Good luck everybody, have a great weekend.