Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / Tesla's Bold Bet: Robotaxis and Humanoid Workers

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Tesla's Bold Bet: Robotaxis and Humanoid Workers · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:01
  Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
• 0:05
  This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads, the
• 0:08
  Shape, SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neurolink.
• 0:13
  I'm your host, Will Walden. I have always found this
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  interesting. 54% of you that listen to this show regularly
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  haven't yet subscribed to it. So can I ask you a favor before
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  we start this episode? If you'd like the show and you'd
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  like what we do here and want to support us, the free and easy
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  way that you can do that is by hitting the subscribe button.
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  And my commitment to you is that if you do that, I'll do
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  everything in my power to make the show better every single
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  episode. Listen to your feedback, find
• 0:44
  new and interesting topics, and continue doing the show for you.
• 0:49
  Thank you so much. So what if Tesla's long promised
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  self driving taxis actually hit the streets this year?
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  How would their new humanoid robot fit into the company's
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  future plans? And with Tesla's revenue slowing
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  down a little bit, could these projections be the key to
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  turning things around? On Wednesday, the company
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  confirmed it intends to roll out its robotaxi business and begin
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  pilot production of its Optimus robot in 2025, marking a major
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  step in its expansion beyond just electric vehicles.
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  Elon Musk described autonomous ride hailing as essential to the
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  company's future. Speaking at an earnings call, he
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  said Tesla is confident it will launch an unsupervised Full Self
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  Driving FSD service in Austin, TX as early as June.
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  Now, unlike Tesla's current driver assist system, this
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  version would not require human oversight, making it one of the
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  most ambitious attempts at a fully autonomous ride hailing
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  ServiceNow. Musk also predicted that Tesla's
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  robotaxi operations would expand to California later this year,
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  with additional markets to follow.
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  However, fully autonomous services face significant
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  regulatory hurdles, especially in states like California where
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  existing laws require very strict testing and approval
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  processes. Despite this, Musk's timeline
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  suggests Tesla is pushing ahead aggressively with its self
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  driving ambitions. Now.
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  Tesla's Robotaxi is an autonomous ride hailing vehicle
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  designed to operate without a human driver.
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  Unlike conventional cars, it will lack a steering wheel and
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  pedals, making it fully reliant on Tesla's FSD system.
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  The company plans to integrate the Robotaxi into its broader
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  self driving ecosystem, offering a service where Tesla owners can
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  deploy their vehicles for ride sharing when not in use.
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  The concept aligns with Elon's long standing vision of turning
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  Tesla vehicles into revenue generating assets, allowing
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  owners of Teslas to earn money by lending their cars to the
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  fleet. Now the Robotaxi will be based
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  on Tesla's upcoming Cyber Cab, a purpose built autonomous vehicle
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  set to enter mass production in 2026.
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  Initial development and deployment will begin in Austin,
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  TX, with expansions to California and other markets
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  following soon after. And Tesla stated that its FSD
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  system is improving towards exceeding human safety levels.
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  Though the company has faced regulatory scrutiny over its
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  self driving claims. And it's successful.
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  Though the Robotaxi network could significantly disrupt the
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  ride hailing industry by offering low cost transportation
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  without the expense of paying humans.
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  Now, beyond autonomous taxis, Tesla's reformation of its
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  commitment to introducing more affordable EVs.
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  The company stated that the production of these lower cost
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  models would begin in the first half of 2025.
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  Rather than using an entirely new manufacturing process, these
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  vehicles will incorporate elements from both Tesla's
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  existing platforms and next generation designs.
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  They will also be built on the same assembly lines as the
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  company's current models, allowing Tesla to scale
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  production way more efficiently than building its new line now.
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  Tesla's earning report painted kind of a mixed picture of the
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  company's financial health. The company generated $25.7
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  billion in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023, a 2% increase
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  from the previous year but short of analysts expectations of 27.1
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  billion. Meanwhile, net income fell
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  sharply, dropping 71% to 2.3 billion.
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  The decline in profitability reflects several challenges,
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  including price cuts on Tesla vehicles and rising competition
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  in the EV market. But despite the financial
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  slowdown, Tesla's stock price rose more than 4% in after hours
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  trading following the earnings announcements.
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  Some investors appear more focused on Tesla's long term
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  projects, such as its Full Self Driving Business and robotics
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  division, than on its recent financial struggles.
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  Analysts have noted that the company's ability to
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  commercialize autonomous technology and robotics could be
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  a deciding factor in its future success.
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  Now, Tesla's Optimist Humanoid Robot, another project set for
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  development in 2025, is designed to handle tasks inside Tesla
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  factories before being introduced to broader
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  applications. Musk said the company plans to
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  produce about a several 1000 units next year, marking a major
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  step toward automation and Tesla's manufacturing
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  operations. Long term goal is for optimist
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  to perform a wide range of tasks, with Musk even suggesting
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  that it could eventually play the piano and get this thread a
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  needle. I can't even do that and I'm a
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  human. It's really hard.
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  If you could do that, leave me a comment in the the podcast
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  platform that you're on right now.
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  Tell me that you can thread a needle.
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  I know it's I can do it, but it takes a little time.
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  Now. The introduction of Optimist
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  raises questions about the role of humanoid robots in industrial
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  settings, though. Tesla is betting that automation
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  will increase efficiency and reduce labor costs, but the
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  effectiveness of robots and complex tasks remains uncertain.
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  If successful, Optimus could expand beyond Tesla's own
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  factories and be marketed to other industries, potentially
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  transforming how repetitive or physically demanding jobs are
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  performed. Now the company's push into
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  robotics is part of all of Elon and Tesla's broader vision of AI
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  driven automation. Tesla's been developing AI
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  software not just for self driving cars, but also for
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  robots that can function in dynamic environments.
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  Critics have raised concerns about whether Tesla can deliver
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  on his ambitious promises given the complexity of EI driven
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  robotics. But as we all know, Elon has
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  given us pretty much everything that he's said in the past.
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  His promises, they've been pretty fulfilled and maybe
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  slower than what he said in the beginning, but nonetheless
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  they're coming to fruition. And while Tesla continues to
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  develop self driving and robotics, its current FSD system
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  remains under scrutiny. Company describes a software as
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  an evolving system. It's, I mean, it's software.
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  I'm a software developer. I understand this.
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  You have an alpha, a really pre alpha.
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  You keep building up and that's why people scrutinize it because
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  they don't understand software development.
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  It's evolving and eventually it'll improve towards ultimately
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  exceeding human levels of safety.
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  However, Tesla's also faced regulatory investigations and
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  lawsuits over past claims about the capabilities of full self
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  driving. Elon does like to embellish a
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  little bit. Let's let's be honest here, if
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  we are a fan of Elon or not, he likes to embellish.
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  And you know, he usually backs it up.
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  So now the National Hwy. Traffic Safety Administration
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  and HTSA has launched multiple probes into crashes involving
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  Tesla vehicles operating under FSD in autopilot modes.
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  And despite these challenges, Musk has remained steadfast in
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  his belief that Tesla's FSD technology will define the
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  company's future. He's repeatedly argued that
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  autonomy will transform Tesla's financial model during his
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  vehicles into assets instead of just cars.
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  Think about this for a second. When you're at work, say if you
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  work in an office or even if you work at home and you have, let's
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  just say a normal 8 hour shift, you're not going to drive your
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  car for those eight hours. Why not send it out into the
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  fleet, earn some money from your vehicle while you're stuck in
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  your office? You know, for emergencies,
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  that's not the best thing. But if you're in an office and,
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  or wherever you are, if you're going to take a plane ride for a
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  week, you know, if you're going to be out of town for a week,
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  then of course use your car so you can make that money back for
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  your trip. There's a possibility that you
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  could make a little bit extra too.
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  But if the robotaxi service succeeds, it could disrupt Uber,
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  It could disrupt Lyft. You know, Uber Eats could be a
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  thing of the past. You know, all the, the gig
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  workers out there, instead of going to buy groceries and drive
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  around for Instacart, you might just have to go like have your
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  Tesla go to the store and somebody from Instacart or
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  somebody from the store packs up the Tesla sends it off to the
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  house. Oh, that's, that's going to be
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  the best grocery delivery from a Tesla.
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  It just, you just go out there, you open up the car with your
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  phone with a, you know, Instacart app, open up the car
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  with that and then you get your groceries out of it.
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  There you go totally, totally self driving and totally hands
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  off, no human contact. That would be pretty great.
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  Now Tesla's approach to full self driving, though it differs
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  from competitors like Waymo and Cruise, which rely on high
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  definition maps and Lidar sensors for navigation.
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  Tesla has a vision based system. They use cameras and neural
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  networks to interpret real world driving conditions.
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  They want to make it as human like as possible.
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  It's a loud Tesla to develop a scalable solution, but it's also
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  resulted in challenges related to accuracy and safety.
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  But once they figure it out I think it'll be completely fine.
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  It's much better than most of the other.
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  Basically the other ones are lane assist at this point that's
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  pretty much all they are and full self driving basically
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  drives your car for you. It's going to be critical in the
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  next few months though for Tesla with a roll out of the robotaxi.
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  It's going to be very limited roll out of the robotaxi, by the
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  way. But if you're in Austin, TX, go
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  go, go get the Tesla app and get a taxi.
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  That'll be really cool. Now, optimist robot production,
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  thousands on the line, thousands of robots coming off the line.
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  I should say it's going to be a change for for Tesla.
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  They're not just an automaker anymore and they haven't been
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  for a long time. Elon even stated something in
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  the long lines of if you think Tesla's an auto, make her,
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  you're mistaken and you're Dumber.
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  So something along those lines. I can't remember the exact
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  quote, but he was pretty blunt about it.
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  But their expansion into robotics, robot taxis is a major
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  shift in business for Tesla. Because remember in the
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  beginning they were a green little electric car startup?
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  That's why we all fell in love with Tesla with Tesla, right?
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  Nice little, nice little car. Nice little electric car goes
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  fast, zippy, and is a little more green than buying gas.
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  And now look at it. It's grown tremendously.
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  Let me know in the comments what you think.
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  I want to hear your opinions on this.
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  And if these projects succeed, though, they could position
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  Tesla at the forefront of all autonomous transportation and
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  industrial automation as well. Everybody on the line right now
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  is doing industrial work, like piece work or tasks that be that
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  are repeated. Those people could get replaced
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  by autonomous Tesla robots. So just be warned, people that
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  are out there that are working industrial jobs that are
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  repeatable. I know that big corporations,
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  and this is just AI and of course Tesla robots are using
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  AI, but AI has replaced lower to mid level software developers
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  and a bunch of top tech companies.
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  Recently, all those developers got fired or moved around.
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  So if you're on the line and you know Tesla robots are coming for
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  your job, just be ready to pivot to something else.
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  Get something started, get a side hustle.
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  Then from that side hustle, maybe make that into your job.
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  I don't know. Anyway, that's pretty much it
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  for now, everybody. Tesla can overcome this
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  technological leap, though. The financial hurdles and
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  regulatory hurdles are just that.
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  They're just hurdles. The regulatory red tape and
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  Tesla, they're going to roll them out and it's going to be an
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  amazing future. Hey, thank you so much for
• 13:19
  listening today. I really do appreciate your
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• 13:48
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