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Will NASA cancel their Moon Rocket? · Elon Musk Podcast

0:01
Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
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This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads, The
0:08
Shape, SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company and Neurolink.
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I'm your host, Will Walden. So is NASA about to cancel their
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gigantic SLS Space Launch System rocket?
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This is the rocket that's going to send people back to the moon
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and eventually send people to Mars.
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It's built on legacy systems from the old space shuttle.
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And how would that impact Boeing?
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Who is their primary contractor for this?
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It sounds like they're going to be laying off hundreds of people
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because there's a possible cancellation of the SLS rocket.
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Now, this is a successful rocket.
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It sent a probe, which is the first capsule that people would
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be using around the moon. And they came back down to Earth
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and there were some problems because it was the first ever
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flight of this thing. But they're finding solutions
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for those, and they're headed for the second launch in the
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next few years. Now, my dear, SpaceX is
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developing the Starship down in Boca Chica Star Base, Texas, at
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the tip of Texas on the Gulf of Mexico.
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And the Starship, even though it does have a few problems and has
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some some iterations that it needs to go through, a lot of
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iterations that it needs to go to in order to send people back
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to the moon into Mars, there's no reason why NASA should
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continue building the SLS in my opinion.
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Now that being said, if they cancel the SLS, that would mean
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that they are. NASA is going to be using SpaceX
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and probably Blue Origin for some of the Artemis program.
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For most, the Artemis program, the Starship would be sending
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people to orbit. Actually, you know what they
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could do, and this is a thing that we've talked about numerous
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times on our space channel on YouTube, Space News Pod.
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They would send people to orbit in a Falcon 9 rocket where they
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would rendezvous with a Starship.
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And a Starship has to refuel between 10 and 20 times.
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We're not exactly sure what the number's going to be yet because
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SpaceX still has to finish the Starship.
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It's right now, it's in the testing phase, and Flight 8 is
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coming up in the next month, according to Elon Musk and
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insiders of SpaceX. So the fact that they already
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have the capable hardware to send them to orbit is a huge
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thing. Now, the Starship would be
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parked in orbit, similar to the space station, but not as high
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up, and they would rendezvous with a Dragon capsule with the
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Starship. Now, those systems are already
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there, so they could use the universal adapter that they
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already use on the International Space Station to dock with the
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Starship. So the Dragon capsule would have
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the adapter on it, so it could dock with a Starship already.
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So it's already the hardware's already there for that.
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Now the Starship, mind you, hasn't made it to orbit yet,
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like a full orbit, hasn't made a full orbit, hasn't made re
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entry, but also hasn't made it to the moon yet.
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But this system wouldn't be the same system as they're testing.
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Now. This is the whole new Starship.
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And the Starship that they would be using would be the lunar
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variant, which is the HLS, a human landing system.
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And I want to remind everybody that the Starship is huge.
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It's around 150 to 200 feet tall and imagine a 15 story building
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landing vertically on the moon's surface.
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Is that terrifying to anybody else?
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I'm not a naysayer. I think SpaceX has done amazing,
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amazing things for space exploration, and I see this as a
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way for them to build a space station on the moon with
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Starships. Now, this is a whole other
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thing. But because the Starship is so
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big, they can use those as temporary space stations on the
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moon, or lunar stations, I should say.
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So what they're going to do, this is the plan, like we
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discussed before, rendezvous in orbit with the Dragon, then the
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Dragon separates from the Starship, and then the Starship
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makes its way to the moon. Therefore, there's no other
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systems in place, there's no Boeing capsules, no SLS is just
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two SpaceX rockets. Now if they can get a Blue
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Origin rocket to do the same thing, I believe NASA will
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contract Blue Origin to do the first part.
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It's going to take a long time for Blue Origin to get people
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rated for the rocket, but New Glen as a possibility could get
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human rated. But there's no reason why they
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should do that because Falcon 9 already exists and Falcon Heavy
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already exists. So it depends on what orbit they
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want us, what they want to park a Starship in.
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But landing 150 foot tall Starship on the moon seems
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incredibly, incredibly difficult.
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They're having problems landing in a on Earth already.
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They haven't made it back into orbit or out of orbit back down
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without destroying the Starship. It did land in the Indian Ocean,
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but it wasn't in good shape and they don't know how to
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propulsively land a Starship yet.
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They're figuring it out and it could take them a few years to
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do this. Could take 5-6 years to do this.
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But the reason why they're cutting off Boeing and SLS is
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because it cost so much money to launch that gigantic NASA rocket
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every time. It's billions of dollars.
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They've spent roughly $3 billion annually on the rocket and its
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associated ground systems. SpaceX, for example, has
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developed and launched 2 heavy lift rockets, the Falcon Heavy
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and the Starship, while Blue Origin has introduced its own
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competitor, the New Glen. These private sector rockets,
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which incorporate reusable technology, are estimated to fly
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at a fraction of the cost of the SLS, which further undermines
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its long term viability. But there's people that are
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supporting the SLS. They argue that it provides
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unmatched capability for crude deep space missions,
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particularly in carrying large payloads to the moon, into Mars
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and beyond. They also contend that the
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government backed program like Artemis needs a reliable,
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dedicated launch vehicle rather than relying solely on
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commercial providers. But this argument is losing
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traction as SpaceX demonstrates their ability to deliver cost
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effective, high performance, gigantic massive launch systems.
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Super high power, the most powerful rocket ever.
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Now, we all know, you and me, everybody listening to this
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knows that Elon Musk and Trump are buddy buddy.
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The Trump administration will move to eliminate the SLS.
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If they do, and if they move to eliminate the funding in its
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budget proposal, the final decision will be on Congress.
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Now, lawmakers have historically supported the rocket due to his
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ties to key aerospace contractors and the thousands of
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jobs it supports across multiple states.
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However, shifting political priorities and mounting budget
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pressures could change that calculus.
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And Donald Trump doesn't just want to go to the moon.
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He wants to go to Mars. And Elon Musk is the biggest
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proponent of that on this planet.
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He started a rocket company, in particular, to send a plant to
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Mars to inspire people. Now, what does Elon have to do
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with all of this? Well, we all know that Elon
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talks to Donald Trump regularly. Elon has been in his ear
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obviously about the SLS system, the cost effective and Elon, of
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course, he's in charge of Doge. So he could cut the budget if he
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wants to. And at least he can, he can
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justify the budget cut knowing that his company and Blue Origin
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could save the government money, $3 billion a year on this
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system, the ground system and the rocket.
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So the ground systems are everything that launches the
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rocket. So the water deluge system, all
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the people on the ground that would be fired, you know, like
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they're be terminated, they'll be fired.
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They won't have jobs. Their families will suffer.
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If all of this happens and the SLS has been a jobs program for
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a lot of states, hundreds of employees, thousands of jobs
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will be, they'll be fired because of this.
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And if they're trying to cut government spending, I can
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understand that. And these people, some of these
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people may be shuffled around in the system.
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But even if Boeing secures a short term extension for the SLS
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program, the long term outlook remains uncertain.
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NASA is already exploring alternative pathways for
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Artemis, including increase reliance on SpaceX.
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They've contracted SpaceX to develop human landing systems,
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the Starship. The growing interest in
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leveraging private sector launch capabilities for future lunar
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missions, too. Because they're going to send
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Rovers and they're going to send all sorts of equipment.
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And if Blue Origin can, Jeff Bezos's rocket company can send
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things to the moon just like SpaceX can, at a fraction of the
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cost of the SLS, because they need to build infrastructure up
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there too. You can't just send people the
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moon to live and not have water and shelter and the things that
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we take for granted down here and food.
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You can't send that send people up there without those things.
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Same to Mars. You can't send people to Mars
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without all those things. You have to build a year plus of
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infrastructure for the Martians that will be Martians, the
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people that live on Mars for over a year.
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You know, because the the gateway back, it takes so long.
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It's about nine months before a return trip can happen.
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So they need a reliable commercial partner to build the
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systems and also send the systems to Mars.
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Jeff Bezos has historically talked about people living and
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working in space. And with Blue Origin, he can
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make that dream come true. He's been talking about it since
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he was a little boy. You know, the first thing that
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he wanted to do instead of Amazon was try to get people to
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live in and work in space. He was trying to find ways to do
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that before he just happened upon Amazon.
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He had this idea of like, hey, why don't we send books through
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the mail And it worked. And now he has all the money to
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build his Blue Origin company, which is his lifelong dream.
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So Elon and Jeff Bezos, 2 of the richest people in the world have
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rocket companies and those commercial rocket companies,
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they're shaking hands with Donald Trump right now.
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Both of them. They're both of the
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inauguration. Big tech was at the inauguration
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and we know how that works. We all know how the government
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works. You're buddy buddy with
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somebody, you get in their ear. And if you're influential like
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Elon Musk, of course people want to be your friend.
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They trust you because you have the track record of succeeding.
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Same with Jeff Bezos. You're a winner and people want
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to surround themselves with winners and they want to be on
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the winning team. So if they know that Jeff Bezos
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and Elon Musk can produce a product that can send people to
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the moon and Mars, of course they're going to get behind
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them. Of course Boeing, even though
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they've been leader in the aerospace industry for decades,
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the SLS program cost way too much money.
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It's it takes years to build 1 rocket.
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Elon has flown 7 rockets in the time that the SLS rocket has
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flown one now. The SLS rocket went to the moon,
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went around the moon, and came back down to Earth in the
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capsule that was on top of the rocket made that made that trip.
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Not the rocket itself, but the rocket propelled it around the
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earth, around the moon. Now Starship hasn't made it to
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orbit. Starship hasn't made it to the
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moon. Starship hasn't made it out of
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the Earth's gravitational pull. So using a Starship at this
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point, canceling SLS and using Starship alone is a little bit
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tricky considering it might not work.
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I'm not doubting the engineers of SpaceX.
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I'm not doubting Elon Musk. I'm just saying there's a
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possibility that something doesn't work out.
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They'll find they'll they'll probably figure out the
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engineering of it in the logistics of it.
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But if something doesn't work out and they throw away the SLS
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program, it's, it's a doomsday scenario for us going back to
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the OR back to the moon, from Earth and to Mars.
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But I think SpaceX can do it unless something dramatically
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happens that would cancel Starship, which I don't see it
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happening or postponing Starship.
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The only thing I can think of is an accident with the ship itself
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with the last flight when the ship blew up over the Indian
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Ocean. There's some islands that were
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scattered with debris. There were debris, like hit
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cars, hit houses, reportedly so. And we don't know if those
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reports were real because they're still investigating.
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And the FAA has to investigate all that stuff.
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So if that continues to happen, if they can't figure out the
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Starship for some reason, then, you know, in that regard, if it
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keeps having accidents, then they will, you know, FAA will
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ground the Starship until they figure out what's wrong with it.
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And the FAA historically has been on Spacex's side.
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No matter what anybody tells you, the FAA is slow to move as
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it always has been. It's a government agency.
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They usually are slow to move. But they have been working with
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SpaceX for 1213 years now, and they have the best interest of
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SpaceX at heart. So they will work with SpaceX to
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figure out flights and safety and Starship will be able to fly
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again. And they will eventually, I
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believe if this all works out, if the tanker system works out
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with SpaceX, they'll be able to dock in orbit, refuel, and then
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send people to the moon and eventually to Mars.
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And I don't see why in the future.
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SpaceX and Elon Musk has said this as well, that in a few
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years when the transfer happens, there's a possibility that
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SpaceX could just launch a Starship there.
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It's harder to see in orbit than it is to send something to
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another planet. The the physics of it to like
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stop a rocket, basically stop your momentum and it's like get
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into like the perfect orbit. It's harder to do that than
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this, to send something to another planet and catch their
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orbit, because you can catch their orbit from, you know,
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there's a little bit more leeway.
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You should be on track to do it properly.
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But you have all that time to fix things.
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And going to space, it takes, you know, a couple minutes to
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get to orbit. So, you know, you have the same
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amount of time to get into Earth's orbit or you have two
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minutes, two or three minutes to get into Earth's orbit.
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You know, because that propels you so fast.
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It takes a little bit longer than that.
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Of course, you know, I'm just saying two or three minutes
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because that's the flight time of the initial launch.
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But that's how much thrust you have until you get to orbit.
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So trying to stop all that getting to like a certain spot
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to get into orbit, incredibly difficult.
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But going flying yourself all the way to Mars takes nine
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months to get there. So how long they had?
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Nine months. You have nine months to course
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like course correct and recalculate.
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So SpaceX can figure out that tanker system, which will take
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12 to 20 refuels in orbit and then fly a Starship once it's
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docked in orbit. Once they can figure out this
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orbit thing, once it's docked in orbit, then they can send people
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to Mars. And I don't even know if the
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Artemis program is going to be changed from the moon to just
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focus on Mars. That's that's still up in the
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air too. Right now it's pretty cemented
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in then NASA will stay on the moon.
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They'll send people to the moon to live and work on the moon
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because it's our nearest neighbor.
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And it's it's a good testing ground for all the systems that
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we would need to get to Mars. But the overall huge mission is
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going to Mars. And that's what Elon and Jeff
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Bezos has been working on for have been working on for their
18:16
whole lives, basically. Hey, thank you so much for
18:25
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