Latest / The President's Daily Brief / The PDB Situation Report | September 19th, 2026: Iran’s Targeting of U.S. Forces May Be Getting More Dangerous & Putin’s Wartime Election

Transcript

The PDB Situation Report | September 19th, 2026: Iran’s Targeting of U.S. Forces May Be Getting More Dangerous & Putin’s Wartime Election · The President's Daily Brief

• 0:07
  Welcome to the PDB Situation Report.
• 0:10
  I'm Mike Baker,
• 0:11
  your eyes and ears on the world stage.
• 0:13
  And yes,
• 0:14
  thank you again for noticing I am back on the road.
• 0:18
  Let's get briefed.
• 0:19
  First up,
• 0:20
  new reports suggest that Russia and Chinese companies
• 0:23
  may be helping Iran sharpen its targeting of American forces
• 0:27
  across the Middle East.
• 0:29
  Uh,
• 0:29
  Open source intelligence analyst and great friend of the show,
• 0:32
  Ryan Macbeth,
• 0:33
  he joins us for more on that.
• 0:35
  Later in the show,
• 0:36
  Russia holds parliamentary elections this weekend.
• 0:39
  Oh,
• 0:39
  I wonder who's gonna win,
• 0:40
  with growing strain from the war,
• 0:42
  but virtually no opposition,
• 0:44
  of course,
• 0:44
  to Putin's ruling party.
• 0:46
  We'll be joined by a good friend of the show,
• 0:47
  Konstantin Semoyov of the YouTube channel Inside Russia
• 0:51
  for some insight into that.
• 0:53
  But first,
• 0:54
  today's Situation Report spotlight.
• 0:57
  This week,
• 0:58
  new reports emerged that Russian and Chinese companies may be helping
• 1:02
  Iran improve its targeting of American forces across the Middle East,
• 1:06
  basically providing intelligence or targeting data
• 1:09
  to make
• 1:09
  the Iranian regime's attacks more lethal.
• 1:12
  Most recently,
• 1:13
  investigators found that 14 Russian satellites passed
• 1:16
  over Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia
• 1:19
  in the days before an Iranian strike
• 1:22
  that wounded US personnel and damaged key American aircraft.
• 1:26
  That follows separate reporting linking Chinese satellite imagery
• 1:30
  to another Iranian attack on US forces in Jordan.
• 1:34
  So,
• 1:34
  what exactly is Iran getting from these foreign partners and
• 1:38
  how much of a difference
• 1:39
  could it be making on the battlefield?
• 1:41
  Joining us now is great friend of the show.
• 1:44
  I didn't say good,
• 1:45
  I said great,
• 1:46
  Ryan Macbeth.
• 1:47
  Now,
• 1:47
  you know him,
• 1:48
  right?
• 1:49
  Ryan's an open-source intelligence analyst.
• 1:51
  He won't tell us what that actually means.
• 1:53
  You can check out his YouTube channel.
• 1:55
  It's at Ryan Macbeth Programming
• 1:57
  or at substack.
• 1:58
  He also won't tell us what that is.
• 2:00
  It's at RyanMcbeth.substack.com.
• 2:04
  If you're not paying attention to Ryan,
• 2:05
  I don't know what you're doing with your time.
• 2:07
  Ryan,
• 2:07
  thank you,
• 2:07
  man,
• 2:08
  for being back here on The Situation Room.
• 2:10
  Thank you so much for inviting me.
• 2:11
  It's always a great time.
• 2:14
  Yeah,
• 2:14
  well,
• 2:15
  look at you
• 2:16
  going in right out of the gate with a compliment.
• 2:19
  Uh,
• 2:19
  I feel pretty good.
• 2:20
  I'm in Florida today.
• 2:21
  I'm going to a cigar factory in a couple of hours to shoot a commercial.
• 2:25
  Life,
• 2:25
  uh,
• 2:26
  life isn't so bad right now.
• 2:29
  If the Polish Iranians would stop messing with our,
• 2:31
  our video connection,
• 2:33
  we would have been able to do this a half hour ago,
• 2:35
  be out smoking cigars.
• 2:37
  Yeah,
• 2:37
  no,
• 2:37
  you know what,
• 2:38
  you're not wrong about that.
• 2:39
  Uh,
• 2:40
  yeah,
• 2:41
  but I,
• 2:41
  I gotta tell you something.
• 2:42
  Normally
• 2:43
  you're,
• 2:43
  uh,
• 2:44
  the guy with the most interesting
• 2:45
  backdrop,
• 2:47
  uh,
• 2:47
  in podcast land,
• 2:48
  and,
• 2:49
  uh,
• 2:49
  so that explains that you're traveling right now,
• 2:51
  which explains why your backdrop is,
• 2:54
  is,
• 2:54
  is so generic,
• 2:55
  uh,
• 2:55
  as opposed to mine,
• 2:57
  which,
• 2:57
  yeah,
• 2:57
  you know,
• 2:58
  I've got,
• 2:59
  I've gotta go to Doral on,
• 3:01
  uh,
• 3:01
  I gotta go to Doral this weekend.
• 3:04
  I gotta go to Tampa next weekend,
• 3:06
  you know,
• 3:07
  uh,
• 3:07
  us guys up at Fort Meade,
• 3:09
  we,
• 3:09
  we have to work for a living.
• 3:10
  We can't just steal gold bars from our employer like you do at Langley,
• 3:14
  you know.
• 3:14
  Some,
• 3:15
  well,
• 3:16
  tell me,
• 3:16
  tell me about it.
• 3:17
  You know what,
• 3:18
  look,
• 3:18
  it's,
• 3:18
  it's,
• 3:19
  people don't think that people work at the agency
• 3:21
  simply for patriotic reasons.
• 3:23
  It's really because we can just abscond with anything.
• 3:26
  Yeah,
• 3:27
  you walk in,
• 3:27
  you say you,
• 3:28
  you,
• 3:28
  you,
• 3:29
  you need a couple of high-end luxury sports cars for an operation,
• 3:32
  and they say,
• 3:33
  well,
• 3:33
  why?
• 3:34
  And you say it's secret,
• 3:35
  can't tell you.
• 3:36
  Next thing you know,
• 3:37
  you got $40 million in gold bars stashed away at your home.
• 3:41
  Yeah,
• 3:42
  that's a story and a half right there.
• 3:43
  We'll talk about that some other time,
• 3:44
  possibly over a drink and a cigar,
• 3:46
  but first,
• 3:47
  you know,
• 3:47
  there's some stuff going on out there in the world,
• 3:49
  man,
• 3:50
  and we should talk about that.
• 3:52
  Uh,
• 3:53
  what do you know and what can you tell us
• 3:55
  about,
• 3:56
  uh,
• 3:57
  Russian and Chinese targeting support for the Iranian regime?
• 4:02
  That's a,
• 4:02
  that's a very good question.
• 4:03
  I can tell you that
• 4:07
  there is a non-zero chance that
• 4:09
  Russia and China are providing targeting assistance
• 4:12
  to uh Iranian
• 4:14
  uh targets.
• 4:16
  The question becomes,
• 4:19
  how actionable
• 4:21
  is that intelligence?
• 4:23
  Because if I,
• 4:24
  if a ship is moving at
• 4:26
  30 knots,
• 4:28
  And I get information that,
• 4:31
  hey,
• 4:31
  we have the USS Abraham Lincoln
• 4:34
  at this location,
• 4:35
  but that intelligence is an hour old.
• 4:39
  Well,
• 4:39
  that ship has moved in somewhere in a 30,
• 4:42
  30 mile circle.
• 4:44
  In the,
• 4:44
  in the time it's taken me to get that information.
• 4:47
  Now I gotta get that information out of the targeting cell,
• 4:50
  and I have to get that information out to the launcher,
• 4:52
  so now it might be an hour,
• 4:54
  and now you have a 60
• 4:56
  nautical mile circle.
• 4:59
  Now,
• 4:59
  for buildings that are sitting exactly where,
• 5:02
  where they,
• 5:03
  you know,
• 5:03
  buildings don't tend to move.
• 5:05
  So,
• 5:06
  if Russia or China has some good intelligence that,
• 5:08
  hey,
• 5:08
  this is where,
• 5:10
  uh,
• 5:10
  a fleet commander is,
• 5:12
  or this is where a big logistics node is,
• 5:15
  or,
• 5:15
  hey,
• 5:15
  we got a hit from a guy
• 5:17
  using his Garmin at the base gym,
• 5:20
  we know this guy's a colonel and we know what building he is likely to be in
• 5:25
  when he's doing his workout that we can hit him there,
• 5:28
  then
• 5:29
  that targeting information becomes useful.
• 5:32
  However,
• 5:33
  I don't
• 5:35
  believe that Russia and China have,
• 5:38
  uh,
• 5:38
  officers
• 5:39
  that are embedded with the IRGC
• 5:42
  working with them directly or even IRGC officers that are in Russia or China,
• 5:46
  uh,
• 5:47
  who are relaying this information.
• 5:49
  I think they are more likely just going out on the public internet,
• 5:54
  buying,
• 5:55
  uh,
• 5:56
  the satellite data from China.
• 5:58
  Uh,
• 5:58
  you can even get synthetic aperture radar
• 6:01
  from,
• 6:01
  uh,
• 6:02
  from private sources.
• 6:04
  And you can grab that in Ronnie Ryan for the Ryan,
• 6:08
  we,
• 6:08
  we shouldn't let that one go by for
• 6:09
  the uninitiated who aren't experts in synthetic aperture,
• 6:13
  uh,
• 6:14
  surveillance.
• 6:15
  Could you explain that in 30 seconds or less?
• 6:18
  Oh boy,
• 6:18
  I don't know if I can.
• 6:19
  Uh,
• 6:20
  so instead of a visual picture,
• 6:23
  you have a radar picture that comes down from a satellite,
• 6:27
  and you can even bounce it inside of things like buildings or hangars
• 6:31
  to get a picture of what's going on inside that building.
• 6:34
  You think that that's,
• 6:34
  is that a good way of describing it?
• 6:36
  Yeah,
• 6:37
  look,
• 6:37
  look at you.
• 6:37
  Yeah,
• 6:38
  that was very good and it was in 30 seconds or less.
• 6:40
  Uh,
• 6:41
  OK,
• 6:41
  so let me,
• 6:41
  let me,
• 6:42
  let me.
• 6:43
  Let me stop you there for a second.
• 6:44
  So,
• 6:44
  you don't,
• 6:45
  you don't buy the idea that this is,
• 6:47
  uh,
• 6:48
  an official
• 6:49
  Kremlin
• 6:50
  effort or
• 6:52
  CCP or the PLA in China
• 6:54
  to provide the Iranian regime
• 6:57
  with
• 6:58
  Intelligence with targeting data.
• 7:00
  You think they're going out and perhaps acquiring this from
• 7:05
  perhaps Russian or Chinese companies.
• 7:07
  But it's not,
• 7:08
  it's not an official act of
• 7:11
  the Russian government or the Chinese government.
• 7:14
  I don't totally buy it,
• 7:15
  mainly because the Iranians are very,
• 7:18
  very good at what they do
• 7:20
  intel-wise,
• 7:22
  and
• 7:23
  if they had partnered with Russia,
• 7:26
  then Russia would give them targets that Russia wants to see destroyed,
• 7:30
  not necessarily targets that Iran wants to see destroyed.
• 7:34
  So,
• 7:36
  to put that a different way,
• 7:37
  uh,
• 7:37
  Russia might see some,
• 7:39
  uh,
• 7:39
  American radar system that it knows
• 7:43
  we've considered selling to the Ukrainians.
• 7:45
  Russia might say to,
• 7:47
  uh,
• 7:47
  Iran,
• 7:48
  hey,
• 7:49
  there's this new radar system,
• 7:50
  you should destroy this.
• 7:52
  And so now you're getting targets,
• 7:54
  and you're,
• 7:55
  now you're becoming an errand boy for Russia because
• 7:57
  they want to see how that system performs.
• 7:59
  They're not actually trying to help you.
• 8:02
  And hitting that target,
• 8:03
  yeah,
• 8:03
  I mean,
• 8:03
  I,
• 8:04
  I can,
• 8:04
  I,
• 8:04
  I see what you're,
• 8:05
  I see what you're saying.
• 8:06
  I just think that,
• 8:08
  um,
• 8:08
  I'm gonna push back a little bit,
• 8:10
  uh,
• 8:10
  and just,
• 8:12
  because I,
• 8:12
  I,
• 8:12
  I think that
• 8:13
  perhaps the Russians and,
• 8:14
  and,
• 8:14
  and the Chinese
• 8:16
  are,
• 8:16
  are a little more sophisticated
• 8:18
  and
• 8:20
  That they're probably
• 8:22
  If they were,
• 8:23
  if they were doing this,
• 8:24
  not saying they are,
• 8:25
  but if they were,
• 8:25
  if they were providing
• 8:27
  intel support.
• 8:29
  Uh,
• 8:30
  specifically some form of targeting data.
• 8:33
  That
• 8:34
  they would be a little bit more sophisticated than saying,
• 8:37
  you know,
• 8:37
  what we want is to destroy X,
• 8:40
  so you destroy X.
• 8:41
  I think they might look at it a little bit more from a,
• 8:43
  from a,
• 8:44
  a more
• 8:45
  layered approach
• 8:46
  in terms of
• 8:48
  What benefits the Iranian regime
• 8:51
  in a,
• 8:51
  in a sense on the periphery is gonna benefit the
• 8:54
  Chinese Communist Party,
• 8:55
  right?
• 8:56
  You're,
• 8:56
  you're creating additional chaos.
• 8:58
  You,
• 8:58
  you're keeping,
• 8:59
  you know,
• 8:59
  the US with skin in the game because that,
• 9:01
  that distracts them,
• 9:02
  etc.
• 9:03
  etc.
• 9:04
  I,
• 9:04
  I,
• 9:05
  so,
• 9:05
  but again,
• 9:05
  I,
• 9:05
  I see what you're saying.
• 9:07
  Do we have any credible,
• 9:08
  from your perspective,
• 9:09
  do we have any credible intelligence
• 9:12
  that supports
• 9:14
  The idea
• 9:15
  that it's not the Kremlin or it's not the inside Beijing itself
• 9:19
  providing this
• 9:21
  level of support.
• 9:22
  I don't think we have any credible evidence either way at
• 9:26
  My level right now are at like an open unclassified level right now.
• 9:31
  And
• 9:32
  nobody's gonna come out and say that,
• 9:33
  right?
• 9:34
  You just have to,
• 9:34
  you have to look at things from the standpoint
• 9:37
  of if,
• 9:38
  if you were an Iranian,
• 9:40
  you would probably be suspicious of any intelligence coming from
• 9:44
  Uh,
• 9:45
  coming from China or coming from Russia,
• 9:48
  because you have to wonder like,
• 9:50
  all right,
• 9:50
  these guys are,
• 9:51
  these guys are using us to see what capabilities the United States has.
• 9:55
  Doesn't mean China or Russia is saying,
• 9:57
  oh,
• 9:57
  here's our target,
• 9:58
  do us a favor,
• 9:59
  but they might selectively give you information
• 10:02
  to see what you would do with it,
• 10:04
  just so they can grab information on the performance of
• 10:07
  an American system or electronic warfare or counter drone system.
• 10:11
  And as an Iranian dude
• 10:13
  with very little satellite capability,
• 10:16
  you're probably gonna take that information with a grain
• 10:18
  of salt and have a conference and say,
• 10:20
  OK,
• 10:21
  this is what the Russians are saying
• 10:23
  we should hit.
• 10:24
  Uh,
• 10:25
  what do you guys think?
• 10:27
  Now,
• 10:27
  the other end of that,
• 10:28
  you look at stuff,
• 10:29
  uh,
• 10:29
  that you can buy on the open market.
• 10:31
  Well,
• 10:31
  now,
• 10:32
  you get a whole plethora of satellite imagery.
• 10:35
  And
• 10:36
  you might have,
• 10:37
  the Russians or Chinese might have uh human intelligence
• 10:41
  sources
• 10:42
  at some of these bases,
• 10:43
  right?
• 10:44
  People who clean
• 10:45
  or whatever,
• 10:47
  that,
• 10:47
  that might provide a little additional information.
• 10:50
  But if you're an Iranian guy,
• 10:53
  I,
• 10:53
  I mean,
• 10:53
  I would personally rather buy satellite information from a publicly
• 10:57
  uh traded company like,
• 10:59
  uh,
• 10:59
  like we've seen China doing.
• 11:02
  Where these guys say,
• 11:03
  all right,
• 11:03
  let me buy information about the region.
• 11:05
  OK,
• 11:06
  hey,
• 11:06
  this matches up with our intelligence work that we did
• 11:09
  tracking the Fitbits and garments of soldiers.
• 11:12
  This is likely a gym.
• 11:14
  Let's hit that.
• 11:15
  Whereas the Russians might want you to hit
• 11:17
  some kind of new radar
• 11:20
  that's gonna cause casualties.
• 11:23
  Yeah,
• 11:23
  I mean,
• 11:23
  it is,
• 11:24
  it is interesting.
• 11:24
  There,
• 11:25
  there certainly has been
• 11:27
  enough discussion,
• 11:29
  right?
• 11:29
  Again,
• 11:29
  you're,
• 11:30
  you're right,
• 11:30
  at a certain level,
• 11:31
  they're not gonna release sources and methods.
• 11:33
  So,
• 11:33
  but in terms of
• 11:35
  just,
• 11:35
  you know,
• 11:36
  um,
• 11:36
  Chinese companies,
• 11:37
  um,
• 11:39
  For making satellite imagery available to the Iranian regime.
• 11:42
  And then
• 11:43
  some
• 11:43
  new reporting coming out talking about,
• 11:46
  you know,
• 11:46
  the,
• 11:46
  uh,
• 11:47
  the,
• 11:47
  the,
• 11:47
  the Russian satellites passing over Prince Sultan Air Base,
• 11:51
  you know,
• 11:52
  just before and after,
• 11:54
  uh,
• 11:55
  the Iranian strike that,
• 11:56
  that wounded
• 11:58
  what,
• 11:58
  a dozen US personnel and
• 12:00
  took out some assets including,
• 12:02
  I think an EC-3.
• 12:03
  So,
• 12:05
  You know,
• 12:05
  I,
• 12:06
  I,
• 12:06
  I'm,
• 12:06
  I'm not,
• 12:07
  I'm not ready to go there yet to say that.
• 12:09
  That the Kremlin or,
• 12:10
  or Beijing's not involved in this because
• 12:13
  they will do whatever's in their best interest.
• 12:15
  And right now,
• 12:16
  their best interest,
• 12:17
  I think,
• 12:17
  is to keep the US tied up in this.
• 12:19
  And
• 12:20
  they certainly have shown in particular,
• 12:22
  look,
• 12:22
  China's
• 12:23
  Iran's largest trading partner,
• 12:24
  right?
• 12:25
  They've kept them in the game.
• 12:27
  And,
• 12:27
  you know,
• 12:28
  just like China's kept Russia in the game in a way,
• 12:30
  in,
• 12:30
  in,
• 12:30
  in Ukraine.
• 12:32
  So,
• 12:32
  I'm,
• 12:33
  I'm not willing to absolve them yet as as officially providing this sort of support,
• 12:38
  but I,
• 12:38
  I take your point,
• 12:39
  and,
• 12:39
  and we,
• 12:40
  you know,
• 12:40
  at best we just have to at least say we're,
• 12:42
  we're speculating in that regard because we don't have
• 12:45
  access to the classified information that would prove it.
• 12:48
  Um,
• 12:50
  but,
• 12:50
  all right,
• 12:51
  let,
• 12:51
  let's,
• 12:51
  let's,
• 12:52
  let's pivot if we,
• 12:52
  if we could,
• 12:54
  uh,
• 12:54
  just because I know you gotta get to that cigar
• 12:56
  factory.
• 12:57
  I wanna be mindful of your time,
• 13:00
  uh.
• 13:02
  What,
• 13:03
  what,
• 13:03
  what have you seen
• 13:04
  in terms of the Iran conflict,
• 13:07
  uh,
• 13:07
  let's say over the past week or two,
• 13:10
  that
• 13:11
  has you
• 13:12
  Uh
• 13:14
  I'll let you,
• 13:14
  I'll let you kind of take it from here,
• 13:15
  but I'm gonna give you options.
• 13:16
  What has you most alarmed?
• 13:18
  What surprised you the most?
• 13:20
  You can go in in either direction.
• 13:21
  Oh boy.
• 13:23
  I guess,
• 13:24
  I guess,
• 13:25
  uh,
• 13:26
  the answer to both those questions,
• 13:28
  what surprised me the most,
• 13:29
  what has me most alarmed is the Houthis,
• 13:33
  which are tangential to the conflict.
• 13:38
  The Houthis actually,
• 13:39
  they,
• 13:40
  uh,
• 13:40
  they were able to eat themselves
• 13:42
  to the across
• 13:44
  to the,
• 13:45
  uh,
• 13:45
  the Red Sea,
• 13:46
  captured two islands
• 13:48
  inside the Red Sea,
• 13:50
  and,
• 13:50
  uh,
• 13:51
  basically put a stick in the eye of Saudi Arabia.
• 13:54
  And if you look at Saudi Arabia's military,
• 13:57
  uh,
• 13:57
  290,000 troops,
• 14:00
  excellent equipment,
• 14:02
  some of the worst leadership on the planet.
• 14:05
  And
• 14:07
  Saudi Arabia couldn't do a damn thing
• 14:10
  about this.
• 14:11
  And this kind of has me concerned because
• 14:15
  when,
• 14:16
  when you look at
• 14:18
  why did Saudi Arabia buy all this capability,
• 14:21
  jet fighters and ballistic missile systems and
• 14:24
  laser systems that can shoot down drones,
• 14:27
  they bought it because,
• 14:29
  you know,
• 14:29
  the Saudi military needs to be
• 14:32
  Tough enough that you don't mess with them,
• 14:35
  but not so tough
• 14:37
  that they overthrow the government.
• 14:39
  That's,
• 14:40
  that's the issue you have with any palace guard army.
• 14:42
  And palace guard armies are the,
• 14:44
  the norm,
• 14:45
  not the exception
• 14:47
  in most of the Arab world.
• 14:49
  And I would say some of the Asian world.
• 14:53
  Palace guard armies exist to protect the ruling family.
• 14:56
  You want multiple
• 14:59
  units,
• 15:00
  each of which is overlapping functions,
• 15:02
  but no joint operations that control
• 15:05
  everything.
• 15:06
  You also
• 15:07
  want to put family members
• 15:09
  in certain
• 15:09
  positions of command,
• 15:11
  whether they're competent or not.
• 15:13
  And I think the biggest concerning thing,
• 15:15
  and it,
• 15:16
  I'll tell you another concerning thing.
• 15:18
  When uh
• 15:20
  the Houthis took over uh Perrim Island,
• 15:22
  which is an island it's kind of in the middle of the Red Sea,
• 15:26
  close to Babamundan Strait.
• 15:28
  They took it over.
• 15:29
  Saudi Arabia went to the United States and asked President Trump,
• 15:32
  hey,
• 15:32
  uh,
• 15:32
  can you,
• 15:33
  can you kick the,
• 15:34
  these bad guys off the island?
• 15:35
  And Trump said,
• 15:36
  no.
• 15:37
  And that,
• 15:39
  that is almost 50 years
• 15:42
  of American relations with Saudi Arabia.
• 15:45
  I'm not saying gone,
• 15:47
  but I'm sure the Saudis
• 15:49
  are are looking at their phone and they're going,
• 15:51
  did he just hang up on me?
• 15:58
  Ryan,
• 15:59
  hold it,
• 15:59
  hold it,
• 15:59
  hold it right there.
• 16:00
  Hold it right there.
• 16:01
  Don't go,
• 16:01
  don't,
• 16:02
  don't,
• 16:02
  don't
• 16:03
  carry another thought of this.
• 16:04
  I gotta be mindful of time.
• 16:05
  We're gonna take a quick break.
• 16:06
  All right.
• 16:07
  Well,
• 16:07
  we're gonna come right back
• 16:08
  to that conversation because he,
• 16:10
  he touched on a very important point.
• 16:11
  We'll be back with more
• 16:13
  from the great Ryan Macbeth there on the Situation Report,
• 16:16
  so stick around.
• 16:19
  Hey,
• 16:19
  Mike Baker here with a pro tip for managing your personal finances and investments.
• 16:24
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• 16:25
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• 16:28
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• 16:32
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• 16:36
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• 16:36
  you work too hard to be trying to
• 16:37
  figure out complex investment decisions on your own.
• 16:41
  Um,
• 16:41
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• 17:36
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• 17:44
  Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
• 17:47
  Joining us once again is the great Ryan Macbeth.
• 17:50
  You know him,
• 17:50
  you love him.
• 17:51
  You can check out his YouTube channel.
• 17:53
  That's at RyanMcbeth programming.
• 17:56
  Add on his sub stack.
• 17:58
  One day we're gonna find out what that is.
• 18:00
  Substack.com/at RyanMcbeth.
• 18:04
  Substack.com/at
• 18:06
  RyanMcbeth.
• 18:08
  Write that down.
• 18:09
  We'll have links to both of those on the show description.
• 18:12
  Ryan,
• 18:12
  thank you,
• 18:12
  man.
• 18:13
  Um,
• 18:14
  after that introduction,
• 18:15
  we have no more time,
• 18:16
  so drive safely.
• 18:17
  Uh,
• 18:18
  you raised a really interesting point just before we went to break,
• 18:21
  and that is that
• 18:23
  the Saudis,
• 18:25
  you know,
• 18:25
  did
• 18:26
  come to the White House to say,
• 18:28
  can you give us some
• 18:29
  assistance here with the Houthis?
• 18:31
  And the White House basically said,
• 18:33
  oh,
• 18:35
  right now.
• 18:36
  And so they said,
• 18:37
  we,
• 18:37
  we will,
• 18:37
  we will continue offering intelligence support
• 18:40
  and,
• 18:40
  uh,
• 18:41
  you know,
• 18:41
  a pat on the back.
• 18:43
  Now,
• 18:43
  what that did
• 18:45
  is there's been some reporting that just uh
• 18:48
  talks about,
• 18:49
  I don't want to draw a direct line between
• 18:51
  that event and this what I'm about to say,
• 18:53
  but
• 18:54
  you have to imagine there's something there.
• 18:56
  The Saudis
• 18:57
  turned to the Chinese for some support.
• 19:01
  And
• 19:02
  that shouldn't be surprised.
• 19:04
  So,
• 19:05
  look,
• 19:05
  um,
• 19:07
  For almost 50 years,
• 19:08
  we've had this deal with the Saudis.
• 19:10
  We'll protect you,
• 19:11
  just buy our weapons systems,
• 19:14
  you know,
• 19:14
  uh,
• 19:15
  that way we can earn some money,
• 19:17
  and then,
• 19:17
  um,
• 19:18
  we'll,
• 19:18
  we'll,
• 19:18
  we'll use Americans
• 19:20
  to defend your borders,
• 19:22
  uh,
• 19:23
  and your,
• 19:23
  your military can be for show.
• 19:25
  And then when they actually freaking need us,
• 19:28
  the first time since 1990,
• 19:31
  we turn our back on them and say,
• 19:33
  yeah,
• 19:33
  we're,
• 19:33
  we're,
• 19:33
  we're a little busy right now,
• 19:35
  we're not gonna help.
• 19:36
  And
• 19:38
  that is a departure from 45,
• 19:41
  50 years of,
• 19:42
  of,
• 19:42
  of relationships with the kingdom.
• 19:45
  I think part of it is that we can manufacture our own oil now.
• 19:48
  We weren't as dependent on foreign oil
• 19:51
  as we were back in 1990.
• 19:53
  Because look,
• 19:54
  look,
• 19:54
  let's get real here.
• 19:55
  If,
• 19:56
  if Kuwait's main export were strawberries,
• 19:59
  we have given a crap about them in 1990,
• 20:02
  right?
• 20:03
  I think what this really
• 20:06
  Tells us
• 20:07
  is how we might behave with Taiwan.
• 20:11
  So you have
• 20:13
  Bob on end
• 20:13
  of
• 20:14
  Strait where
• 20:16
  15% of world shipping goes through that.
• 20:19
  You have Taiwan where 90% of our chips are made,
• 20:23
  right?
• 20:24
  If
• 20:26
  China decides to take Taiwan.
• 20:30
  Could
• 20:31
  this administration say,
• 20:33
  you know what?
• 20:34
  We can build our own ships.
• 20:36
  Now that would certainly hurt.
• 20:39
  But
• 20:39
  if the factories that manufacture those chips are destroyed
• 20:44
  during the fighting,
• 20:47
  If you're looking at this from a very pragmatic view,
• 20:50
  and I'm talking like you watched that movie Very Bad Things with Christian Slater,
• 20:54
  and you have a 105 pound problem that has to get
• 20:57
  set,
• 20:57
  move from point A to point B.
• 21:00
  If those fabs are destroyed during the fighting,
• 21:03
  is there any reason to support Taiwan
• 21:05
  anymore from a strictly transactional standpoint?
• 21:08
  And
• 21:09
  you have to question that.
• 21:12
  You have to wonder whether
• 21:15
  Taiwan,
• 21:15
  we could tell Taiwan,
• 21:16
  listen,
• 21:17
  uh,
• 21:17
  without chips,
• 21:18
  you basically export strawberries.
• 21:21
  And we really don't care what happens to you after that.
• 21:24
  So I think that is,
• 21:26
  you have raised a,
• 21:27
  yeah,
• 21:27
  I've raised a really key point that I think sometimes seems to go missing.
• 21:32
  It's,
• 21:32
  it's,
• 21:33
  and it,
• 21:33
  and it's a relatively simple point,
• 21:35
  is,
• 21:35
  is that everything is,
• 21:37
  is interconnected,
• 21:38
  right?
• 21:38
  So,
• 21:39
  uh,
• 21:40
  and what I mean by that is,
• 21:43
  We tell the Saudis,
• 21:44
  I don't want to say we told them to pound sand,
• 21:46
  right,
• 21:46
  but we,
• 21:47
  we,
• 21:48
  we,
• 21:49
  didn't
• 21:50
  offer any assistance that they were looking for at a time when
• 21:53
  they are getting squeezed from both sides in terms of their ability to,
• 21:56
  to move oil into the global markets.
• 21:59
  And
• 22:00
  That doesn't go unnoticed,
• 22:02
  right?
• 22:02
  The Chinese look at that,
• 22:03
  they're they're studying that,
• 22:04
  they're studying the American response at any given time,
• 22:07
  whatever
• 22:08
  administration is in charge.
• 22:09
  The Taiwanese are looking at that,
• 22:11
  right?
• 22:11
  The Russians are looking at that.
• 22:14
  Everything has a knock-on
• 22:15
  effect.
• 22:16
  And
• 22:18
  so when the,
• 22:18
  when the Saudis,
• 22:20
  uh,
• 22:21
  and again,
• 22:21
  look,
• 22:22
  I get it from a White House perspective,
• 22:23
  like,
• 22:24
  oh my God,
• 22:24
  we're 6 months into the Iran war,
• 22:27
  right?
• 22:27
  Do we really want to broaden this conflict out?
• 22:30
  Do we really want to get embroiled in this problem?
• 22:32
  We got our own munitions
• 22:34
  problem,
• 22:35
  right,
• 22:35
  in terms of depleted resources.
• 22:38
  Um,
• 22:39
  is that really what we want to do?
• 22:40
  We got the midterm elections in 2 months.
• 22:43
  So I get it.
• 22:44
  You can understand that.
• 22:46
  But this,
• 22:47
  it doesn't happen in a bubble,
• 22:49
  right?
• 22:49
  So this is gonna have a,
• 22:50
  a,
• 22:50
  a,
• 22:51
  a larger impact.
• 22:53
  Um,
• 22:53
  yeah,
• 22:54
  yeah,
• 22:54
  you're absolutely right,
• 22:55
  and,
• 22:56
  well,
• 22:56
  thank you.
• 22:58
  It's,
• 22:58
  it's very,
• 22:59
  here,
• 23:00
  I,
• 23:00
  I can tell you this,
• 23:02
  um,
• 23:03
  I,
• 23:03
  I've always been ambivalent about the president,
• 23:06
  but
• 23:06
  he,
• 23:07
  one of his
• 23:08
  superpowers and one of his disadvantages is boorishness,
• 23:12
  right?
• 23:13
  The boorishness is what makes him play well to his base,
• 23:16
  but it,
• 23:17
  it also makes people very,
• 23:19
  very mad at him.
• 23:20
  And if the president's approval rating were at
• 23:22
  80% right now,
• 23:24
  I'm sure we would be on that island,
• 23:26
  Pyrami and kicking the hoopies off.
• 23:29
  Unfortunately,
• 23:30
  some of the choices you make.
• 23:32
  At a personal level,
• 23:34
  or why you end up in certain kinds of situations.
• 23:37
  And if you don't have the public's backing,
• 23:41
  If you don't have a mandate from the people,
• 23:44
  and they don't understand why this choke point is necessary,
• 23:47
  then yeah,
• 23:48
  they're gonna look at that and go,
• 23:50
  well,
• 23:50
  we wouldn't send our children to die for Pyrem Island.
• 23:54
  And ultimately that kind of works its way up into the administration of,
• 23:58
  hey,
• 23:58
  sorry guys,
• 23:59
  you're out of luck.
• 24:00
  Now one thing that at the same time that that,
• 24:02
  at the same time that that influences the decision,
• 24:04
  the decision of,
• 24:05
  well,
• 24:05
  we,
• 24:05
  we don't,
• 24:06
  we don't want the voters paying $2 more a gallon for gas going into the elections.
• 24:11
  I mean,
• 24:11
  this,
• 24:12
  it's a,
• 24:13
  again,
• 24:13
  this is not a,
• 24:15
  you know,
• 24:15
  statement of rocket science,
• 24:17
  but
• 24:18
  We do tend to
• 24:21
  Uh,
• 24:21
  simplify.
• 24:23
  Uh,
• 24:23
  the Middle East to an incredibly frustrating point,
• 24:26
  right?
• 24:27
  So,
• 24:27
  and,
• 24:27
  and,
• 24:27
  and I want to get your opinion on,
• 24:28
  on this development as well.
• 24:31
  Uh,
• 24:32
  Reportedly,
• 24:34
  the,
• 24:34
  the administration,
• 24:36
  the US administration
• 24:37
  held
• 24:38
  At a secret meeting or a series of secret meetings
• 24:42
  with KUT
• 24:43
  mediators.
• 24:45
  Now the Houthis obviously are Iranian proxy group.
• 24:48
  They've been supported,
• 24:49
  trained,
• 24:49
  resourced,
• 24:50
  guided
• 24:51
  by the Iranian regime for quite some time.
• 24:55
  So the US meets with the Houthis,
• 24:57
  and reportedly the Houthi
• 24:59
  mediators.
• 25:01
  Basically say,
• 25:01
  look,
• 25:02
  we're not gonna attack US ships.
• 25:03
  We won't even attack Israeli ships,
• 25:05
  right?
• 25:05
  We're not gonna attack commercial vessel vessels in the Red Sea.
• 25:08
  We want to maintain this,
• 25:10
  this ceasefire,
• 25:11
  this agreement that we have with the US.
• 25:14
  But,
• 25:15
  You know,
• 25:15
  the caveat is we're going to continue attacking the Saudis,
• 25:18
  right?
• 25:19
  Now,
• 25:20
  so
• 25:21
  the White House,
• 25:22
  it almost seemed like the White House was like,
• 25:24
  look at this,
• 25:25
  you know,
• 25:25
  we got this great conversation going on with the Houthis.
• 25:28
  The Houthis are being told to do this by the Iranian regime,
• 25:32
  right?
• 25:33
  So
• 25:34
  it,
• 25:34
  it just seems,
• 25:35
  I,
• 25:35
  I worry sometimes
• 25:36
  that we,
• 25:37
  we,
• 25:37
  we never learn our lessons in the Middle East,
• 25:39
  and we never see
• 25:41
  the layers or the complexity or the connections that are involved.
• 25:46
  I,
• 25:46
  I think,
• 25:46
  uh,
• 25:46
  I would be more worried
• 25:48
  if we actually believe these guys that,
• 25:50
  oh yeah,
• 25:51
  don't worry,
• 25:51
  we're never gonna shoot an American ships.
• 25:53
  I think,
• 25:54
  yeah,
• 25:54
  all you need is some breakaway faction or,
• 25:57
  you know,
• 25:58
  people can change their minds.
• 26:01
  No fucking
• 26:02
  they can change their mind,
• 26:03
  yeah,
• 26:03
  I,
• 26:03
  I feel like shooting American ships today.
• 26:06
  So,
• 26:07
  I mean,
• 26:07
  it's,
• 26:08
  it's great to have a deal,
• 26:09
  but you know what works really
• 26:11
  well in a deal is when the,
• 26:12
  the,
• 26:13
  the enemy is afraid of you.
• 26:15
  When they're thinking,
• 26:16
  you know what,
• 26:17
  we,
• 26:17
  let's not change our mind because we're gonna have the entire,
• 26:20
  entire brigade from the eighty-second Airborne fold on on top of our heads.
• 26:25
  You know,
• 26:25
  that that motivates you to to stick with the deal.
• 26:28
  So
• 26:30
  it is kind of funny looking at going like,
• 26:32
  hey,
• 26:32
  we have a deal.
• 26:33
  Yeah,
• 26:34
  it benefits us isn't great about Saudi Arabia,
• 26:36
  but
• 26:37
  You know,
• 26:37
  I,
• 26:38
  I guess right now it's kind of the,
• 26:39
  the,
• 26:40
  uh,
• 26:40
  who,
• 26:40
  who,
• 26:41
  who do we want to be friendly with right now because in some ways we need Saudi Arabia
• 26:46
  less than we need the Houthis to not be shooting at our ships because
• 26:49
  we can make our own oil.
• 26:51
  Yeah,
• 26:51
  but whatever,
• 26:52
  again,
• 26:52
  I guess my,
• 26:53
  my concern is,
• 26:54
  I just hope,
• 26:55
  and I'm sure they do that,
• 26:57
  you know,
• 26:57
  but I just hope that the
• 26:58
  that the the White House
• 27:00
  or or the State Department or whoever is driving this bus.
• 27:04
  You know,
• 27:04
  when they,
• 27:05
  when they're sitting down talking to the Houthis,
• 27:07
  that they understand
• 27:08
  that they're not really talking to the Houthis,
• 27:10
  they're talking to the Iranian regime,
• 27:11
  and the Iranian regime
• 27:13
  has a lot invested in this,
• 27:15
  and
• 27:16
  there's no upside to them,
• 27:18
  right,
• 27:18
  to have the US dragged in
• 27:20
  to the Houthi conflict just yet,
• 27:23
  right?
• 27:24
  Because
• 27:25
  if they can keep the US out of that.
• 27:28
  And the Houthis can continue to make gains against
• 27:30
  the,
• 27:31
  you know,
• 27:31
  Saudi-backed Yemeni forces as they have been recently
• 27:34
  going up and down the Red Sea coast,
• 27:37
  then
• 27:38
  that's good for the Iranian regime.
• 27:39
  And I just,
• 27:40
  you know,
• 27:41
  again,
• 27:41
  we don't seem to sometimes
• 27:44
  connect all the dots when it comes to the Middle East.
• 27:47
  And,
• 27:47
  uh,
• 27:48
  Ryan,
• 27:48
  I am now gonna get off my soapbox
• 27:51
  and I'm gonna say,
• 27:52
  thank you,
• 27:52
  man.
• 27:53
  Uh,
• 27:53
  is there anything else going on,
• 27:55
  uh,
• 27:55
  in the,
• 27:55
  in the short time we got left?
• 27:57
  Is there anything else going on that you wanted to highlight
• 27:59
  for our listeners?
• 28:02
  Boy,
• 28:02
  uh,
• 28:03
  I,
• 28:03
  I,
• 28:03
  I know that was a big playing field right there.
• 28:06
  It is,
• 28:07
  it is a massive playing field.
• 28:09
  I think that the one thing I would highlight is,
• 28:11
  um,
• 28:12
  how Russia took a bunch of drones and armed them
• 28:15
  with explosives,
• 28:16
  put them at a German airfield,
• 28:18
  and everyone in Germany just kind of shrugged
• 28:20
  and sent Russia a strongly worded letter,
• 28:23
  whereas if Russia had done this four years ago,
• 28:25
  we,
• 28:25
  we would be bombing by now.
• 28:27
  And it's just kind of interesting how Russia's tactic of hybrid warfare
• 28:32
  with a slowly turning up the temperature
• 28:34
  to the point where action today would have been
• 28:36
  unthinkable 4 years ago is now becoming almost commonplace.
• 28:41
  Yeah,
• 28:41
  that's a great,
• 28:42
  uh,
• 28:42
  great point to,
• 28:43
  to end with.
• 28:44
  And that's exactly what we're gonna pick up the next time
• 28:47
  that Ryan,
• 28:48
  we have you on the show,
• 28:49
  um,
• 28:50
  because we haven't even touched on the latest updates from
• 28:53
  Ukraine.
• 28:54
  Uh,
• 28:55
  we're gonna go there the next time you come on.
• 28:56
  So that means you have to come on the next time.
• 28:58
  Ryan Macbeth,
• 29:00
  again,
• 29:00
  thank you very much for joining us again today.
• 29:03
  All right.
• 29:03
  Coming up next,
• 29:04
  Russians head to the polls this weekend
• 29:07
  for a parliamentary election that comes as the war weighs on the country,
• 29:11
  but with few real challengers to Putin's grip on power,
• 29:15
  meaning there's really no opposition on the ballot.
• 29:19
  Stay with us.
• 29:21
  Hey,
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• 30:41
  Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
• 30:44
  Russians head to the polls this
• 30:46
  weekend for the country's first parliamentary election
• 30:49
  since Putin's invasion of Ukraine,
• 30:51
  and there are signs that the war is taking a toll on the population.
• 30:57
  Public anxiety is rising.
• 30:59
  The economy is under pressure,
• 31:00
  and even Putin's approval numbers have slipped,
• 31:03
  well,
• 31:03
  somewhat in recent months.
• 31:06
  But,
• 31:06
  well,
• 31:07
  don't expect any dramatic political upset.
• 31:09
  The Kremlin has spent years squeezing out genuine opposition,
• 31:13
  with most anti-war candidates either barred from running,
• 31:16
  jailed,
• 31:16
  or pushed to the margins.
• 31:18
  Putin's United Russia party already dominates parliament.
• 31:21
  They control about 2/3 of it,
• 31:23
  and it is widely expected to maintain that control.
• 31:26
  Of course,
• 31:26
  it is.
• 31:27
  For more on this,
• 31:28
  I want to bring in
• 31:30
  good friend of the show,
• 31:31
  Konstantin Semoyov,
• 31:32
  a Russian expat who now runs a very popular YouTube channel
• 31:36
  at Inside.
• 31:37
  Russia.
• 31:38
  You can find that,
• 31:38
  of course,
• 31:38
  by going to YouTube.
• 31:40
  So get over there
• 31:41
  and then search up
• 31:42
  at Inside Russia.
• 31:44
  And he offers commentary on the current situation with Russia and he's now here
• 31:49
  on the Situation Report
• 31:50
  after a very relatively exciting,
• 31:52
  I believe,
• 31:53
  past few weeks.
• 31:55
  Uh,
• 31:55
  Konstantine,
• 31:55
  it's great to see you again,
• 31:56
  Matt.
• 31:58
  Thank you very much,
• 31:58
  Mike.
• 31:59
  It's been very stressful time,
• 32:02
  uh,
• 32:02
  exciting,
• 32:03
  yes,
• 32:03
  but,
• 32:03
  uh,
• 32:04
  more stressful than exciting.
• 32:06
  Yes,
• 32:06
  uh,
• 32:06
  I'm back to YouTube
• 32:08
  in the,
• 32:09
  yeah,
• 32:09
  tell us,
• 32:09
  tell us,
• 32:10
  tell us what,
• 32:10
  tell us what happened,
• 32:11
  um,
• 32:12
  because
• 32:13
  it has been quite the saga,
• 32:14
  and,
• 32:15
  and you've,
• 32:15
  you've,
• 32:16
  uh,
• 32:16
  you're,
• 32:16
  you're in a new location,
• 32:18
  um,
• 32:19
  yeah,
• 32:20
  let's,
• 32:20
  let's take it from.
• 32:22
  Wherever you want to take it from.
• 32:25
  Well,
• 32:26
  I'll try to be brief because that's quite a long story.
• 32:29
  Um,
• 32:29
  I was interviewed by a
• 32:32
  very big ex
• 32:33
  blogger Mario Nafal
• 32:36
  last November,
• 32:37
  and that
• 32:38
  got me on the radar of Alexander Dugin,
• 32:41
  Putin's friend and
• 32:43
  the ideologist
• 32:44
  of
• 32:45
  Russian world,
• 32:46
  you know,
• 32:46
  philosophy,
• 32:47
  and
• 32:48
  I started noticing increased pressure
• 32:51
  since he threatened me on his
• 32:54
  account and he commented about my interview.
• 32:57
  I started
• 32:57
  noticing more and more er following in real life
• 33:01
  by the Russians.
• 33:03
  And there was an attack on my YouTube channel,
• 33:05
  a big one,
• 33:06
  and I got proof.
• 33:08
  Someone contacted me with the proof of that.
• 33:11
  And it's just,
• 33:13
  I started feeling
• 33:14
  mounting pressure
• 33:16
  starting
• 33:17
  in the beginning of this year,
• 33:19
  and
• 33:20
  you know,
• 33:20
  a combination was in July I
• 33:23
  started not feeling well and I ended up in the hospital.
• 33:27
  And
• 33:28
  as I was,
• 33:29
  I was hospitalized as I was
• 33:31
  moving into a ward,
• 33:33
  I got a call from Russia.
• 33:35
  From the agency saying,
• 33:36
  hey Constantine,
• 33:37
  how are you feeling buddy?
• 33:38
  I hope everything is OK over there,
• 33:40
  you know.
• 33:40
  So anyway,
• 33:41
  they kind of hinted they wanted me to cooperate with them.
• 33:45
  of which I refused and
• 33:48
  Ah,
• 33:48
  the,
• 33:49
  then they started after I.
• 33:51
  Checked out of the hospital,
• 33:52
  they started,
• 33:53
  um.
• 33:55
  Following even more,
• 33:57
  one of the agents showed up at Tashkian Breakfast Club,
• 34:00
  Russian community that I founded in Tashkian,
• 34:03
  as I was live streaming for Patreons and he was sitting
• 34:07
  right next to our,
• 34:08
  um,
• 34:09
  group and listening to what we were saying,
• 34:12
  and it wasn't just me noticing,
• 34:15
  everyone noticed and everyone got very scared.
• 34:18
  Welcome to my world,
• 34:19
  um,
• 34:20
  anyway.
• 34:20
  I also got a warning from the local
• 34:25
  intelligence
• 34:26
  saying,
• 34:26
  Kirstin,
• 34:27
  you know,
• 34:27
  you're OK here,
• 34:28
  we know we're here,
• 34:29
  we know what's going on,
• 34:30
  but
• 34:30
  don't,
• 34:31
  don't
• 34:31
  overstay our welcome,
• 34:32
  that type of thing,
• 34:33
  so.
• 34:34
  Um,
• 34:35
  we packed up and we left.
• 34:36
  We're in Luxembourg now,
• 34:38
  um,
• 34:39
  and we're trying to settle,
• 34:40
  so I feel much safer.
• 34:42
  Um,
• 34:42
  I always spoke freely,
• 34:44
  and,
• 34:44
  um,
• 34:45
  these shows as well,
• 34:46
  but,
• 34:47
  um,
• 34:48
  Now it's gonna be just much more talking,
• 34:51
  OK,
• 34:51
  because I want
• 34:52
  the entire world to hear the story
• 34:54
  and I want the entire world to hear what's really happening in Russia.
• 34:59
  So it kind of moved and it moved into essentially harassing surveillance,
• 35:03
  um,
• 35:04
  while you were,
• 35:05
  uh,
• 35:05
  still there
• 35:06
  in Uzbekistan.
• 35:08
  And how,
• 35:08
  how's your health now?
• 35:10
  You got out of the hospital.
• 35:11
  How are you doing now?
• 35:13
  Um,
• 35:13
  I still have a couple of things,
• 35:15
  um,
• 35:15
  but generally OK.
• 35:17
  Uh,
• 35:17
  I'm going to go to a local,
• 35:19
  local doctor to get thorough examination,
• 35:23
  uh,
• 35:23
  checkup,
• 35:23
  but
• 35:24
  generally OK.
• 35:25
  A couple of things are still lingering
• 35:27
  from
• 35:27
  that,
• 35:28
  uh.
• 35:29
  I believe I was
• 35:31
  I can't say I was poisoned because I don't have hard evidence,
• 35:34
  you know,
• 35:35
  but I,
• 35:35
  I believe something was,
• 35:36
  I was influenced in one way or another,
• 35:39
  you know.
• 35:39
  And by the way,
• 35:40
  I forgot to mention right before I
• 35:42
  fled,
• 35:43
  left Uzbekistan,
• 35:44
  they called me again
• 35:46
  and they openly offered to cooperate and
• 35:49
  they offered me,
• 35:50
  I said we have very
• 35:52
  good financial offer for you,
• 35:53
  so I wasn't going to hang up and
• 35:56
  I ran
• 35:57
  basically
• 35:57
  as fast as I could.
• 36:01
  Oh
• 36:01
  yeah,
• 36:02
  well,
• 36:02
  listen,
• 36:02
  I'll tell you what,
• 36:03
  we're very happy to see you,
• 36:04
  uh,
• 36:05
  in Luxembourg now.
• 36:06
  A great,
• 36:07
  great place,
• 36:07
  by the way.
• 36:08
  I look forward to sitting down over some beers
• 36:11
  and,
• 36:11
  uh,
• 36:11
  catching up with you here during the next trip out that way.
• 36:14
  But well done.
• 36:15
  I'll be fantastic.
• 36:16
  I'll be fantastic.
• 36:18
  Let's get down to,
• 36:19
  let's get down to some of the latest developments,
• 36:21
  OK?
• 36:22
  And first of all,
• 36:23
  Um,
• 36:24
  you know,
• 36:24
  the,
• 36:25
  the parliamentary elections,
• 36:26
  such as they are in Russia,
• 36:28
  uh,
• 36:29
  talk to me about,
• 36:29
  you know,
• 36:30
  the,
• 36:31
  the election process,
• 36:32
  what you think will likely happen.
• 36:34
  Again,
• 36:34
  it doesn't appear to be any serious opposition on the ballot.
• 36:38
  Uh,
• 36:38
  but give me your impressions of the of the election
• 36:42
  process here.
• 36:43
  Not only I can give you the impressions and forecasts,
• 36:47
  I can,
• 36:48
  uh,
• 36:48
  act as oracle,
• 36:51
  you know,
• 36:51
  for this weekend.
• 36:53
  In
• 36:54
  your friendly neighborhood oracle Constantine,
• 36:57
  um,
• 36:57
  Russia,
• 36:58
  the thing is,
• 36:58
  once Putin
• 37:00
  gained power,
• 37:01
  seized power,
• 37:01
  once he was made the president,
• 37:03
  uh,
• 37:04
  he started building the vertical of power
• 37:07
  and the elections
• 37:08
  is a huge part,
• 37:10
  um,
• 37:11
  because in the in the system that Putin was building,
• 37:15
  he
• 37:15
  needed his loyal people.
• 37:17
  He didn't need any competition,
• 37:19
  political competition whatsoever.
• 37:21
  And step by step he was eliminating it.
• 37:24
  He started with
• 37:25
  disbanding,
• 37:27
  well,
• 37:27
  eliminating
• 37:28
  governor's elections
• 37:30
  in Russia.
• 37:32
  Um,
• 37:32
  just like that,
• 37:33
  you know,
• 37:34
  governors were elected and then.
• 37:36
  Then that's it,
• 37:37
  they were
• 37:38
  appointed by the Kremlin by the president himself,
• 37:41
  which they later changed 10 plus years later they changed,
• 37:45
  but
• 37:46
  they made it very controlled
• 37:48
  election governor elections.
• 37:50
  So then they started changing
• 37:53
  the
• 37:55
  The ways that people can get elected,
• 37:58
  um,
• 37:59
  before it was free election just pretty much like in the United States any citizen
• 38:03
  could,
• 38:04
  um,
• 38:05
  you know,
• 38:06
  run for a seat
• 38:08
  and then they,
• 38:10
  uh,
• 38:10
  eliminated that not only political parties registered,
• 38:13
  uh,
• 38:13
  political parties could
• 38:15
  nominate their own members
• 38:17
  to run for the parliament.
• 38:19
  And then
• 38:20
  they made it very hard for
• 38:23
  smaller parties,
• 38:24
  more flexible parties,
• 38:25
  to
• 38:26
  get on the list.
• 38:27
  So basically they
• 38:29
  weeded out
• 38:31
  political competition,
• 38:32
  and now there's one major party called the United Russia Putin's party,
• 38:37
  and there are a few
• 38:40
  controlled opposition,
• 38:41
  as they call it,
• 38:43
  basically it's
• 38:45
  the politicians.
• 38:47
  That pretend to be independent,
• 38:49
  but they made the deal with the Kremlin.
• 38:51
  The Kremlin
• 38:53
  allowed them
• 38:54
  to be part of the political process in exchange for
• 38:58
  Behaving well,
• 38:59
  let's put it this way.
• 39:00
  So we have come to 2026
• 39:03
  in the situation where there's no political competition whatsoever.
• 39:06
  On paper,
• 39:08
  everything looks legit.
• 39:09
  On paper there are different parties,
• 39:10
  but in reality
• 39:12
  it's not even the United Russia.
• 39:14
  They're not calling the shots.
• 39:15
  It's
• 39:16
  one man
• 39:17
  makes the decisions.
• 39:20
  Yeah,
• 39:20
  and it's interesting because that,
• 39:21
  that,
• 39:21
  that fellow,
• 39:22
  Putin,
• 39:23
  obviously,
• 39:24
  um,
• 39:24
  has come out and said,
• 39:25
  look,
• 39:25
  it's,
• 39:25
  it's almost saying it's,
• 39:27
  it's the,
• 39:28
  you know,
• 39:28
  the Russian,
• 39:29
  you know,
• 39:30
  uh,
• 39:30
  voters' obligation to come out and support the troops,
• 39:33
  right?
• 39:33
  Support the,
• 39:34
  the Russian military,
• 39:36
  uh,
• 39:36
  as they carry out Putin's invasion
• 39:39
  going on.
• 39:40
  Almost 5 years to this point.
• 39:42
  Um,
• 39:43
  and
• 39:44
  You know,
• 39:45
  is there any,
• 39:46
  from your perspective,
• 39:47
  is there any
• 39:49
  Any option
• 39:50
  for the voters.
• 39:51
  I mean,
• 39:51
  obviously,
• 39:52
  there's a,
• 39:52
  there's a variety of parties.
• 39:53
  They all basically support
• 39:55
  Russia's,
• 39:55
  you know,
• 39:56
  war policy currently,
• 39:58
  that Putin's policy,
• 39:59
  but is there any way for them to express
• 40:02
  their
• 40:03
  dissatisfaction
• 40:04
  with either Putin or the invasion,
• 40:07
  the war,
• 40:08
  um,
• 40:09
  other than just not showing up to vote.
• 40:15
  Well,
• 40:16
  Not really.
• 40:17
  They cannot influence the election process.
• 40:21
  That's why I offered myself in the role of Oracle,
• 40:25
  OK,
• 40:25
  because
• 40:26
  the election results are already known to some people,
• 40:30
  and they'll be just announced in 3 days
• 40:32
  from now.
• 40:33
  But
• 40:34
  Russians.
• 40:36
  Can
• 40:37
  vote against the United
• 40:39
  Party
• 40:41
  of Russia.
• 40:42
  That's how they can show their disagreement with what Putin
• 40:46
  is doing because the United
• 40:48
  Russia is Putin's party.
• 40:50
  That's their official affiliation and that's
• 40:53
  how they
• 40:54
  project.
• 40:54
  That's their image.
• 40:56
  So
• 40:57
  voting for one of the smaller parties like the Communist Party of Russia.
• 41:02
  The new people,
• 41:03
  those are absolutely pro-Kremlin as well.
• 41:05
  They're controlled,
• 41:06
  but
• 41:06
  I think that's the best Russians can
• 41:09
  do to show
• 41:10
  that they're against
• 41:12
  what
• 41:13
  is doing
• 41:14
  to Ukraine and to Russia.
• 41:17
  As well,
• 41:18
  that's pretty much the only option I have.
• 41:20
  The Russian opposition in exile
• 41:23
  here in Europe,
• 41:24
  in the United States,
• 41:25
  there are some politicians,
• 41:26
  they
• 41:27
  call for Russians to go and have flash mobs at a certain time.
• 41:31
  That's again,
• 41:32
  that's projecting
• 41:34
  a signal
• 41:35
  that they disagree,
• 41:36
  act in a certain way,
• 41:37
  or simply tearing up the ballots,
• 41:40
  things like that,
• 41:41
  but
• 41:41
  that's not going to change the official result.
• 41:44
  Yeah,
• 41:44
  and likely not going to happen given the,
• 41:46
  the,
• 41:47
  yeah,
• 41:48
  the,
• 41:48
  the concept of mass protests is probably not
• 41:51
  going to take hold there.
• 41:52
  But,
• 41:52
  uh,
• 41:53
  I want,
• 41:53
  I want to come back to this point,
• 41:54
  uh,
• 41:54
  Kostantin,
• 41:55
  but first,
• 41:55
  we need to take a quick break.
• 41:57
  Um,
• 41:57
  so if you'll stay with us,
• 41:59
  we'll have more
• 42:00
  from Konstantin Semoyov.
• 42:02
  Um,
• 42:03
  and,
• 42:03
  uh,
• 42:04
  you can check out his YouTube channel.
• 42:05
  Again,
• 42:05
  that's at Inside Russia.
• 42:07
  We'll be right back here on the Situation Report.
• 42:09
  So,
• 42:09
  you know what I'm gonna say,
• 42:11
  stick around.
• 42:13
  Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
• 42:15
  Joining me once again,
• 42:17
  Konstantin Shmoyov.
• 42:18
  You can check out his commentary on his very popular YouTube channel.
• 42:21
  That's at Inside Russia.
• 42:24
  Konstantin,
• 42:24
  thank you very much for sticking around.
• 42:26
  We've been talking about the Russian elections,
• 42:28
  parliamentary elections,
• 42:29
  uh,
• 42:30
  the lack of any
• 42:31
  real opposition
• 42:33
  on the ballot.
• 42:34
  Um,
• 42:35
  so as you pointed out correctly,
• 42:36
  we,
• 42:37
  we know what's going to,
• 42:38
  gonna come from this.
• 42:40
  Uh,
• 42:41
  And was there any real
• 42:43
  Concern because out
• 42:45
  here in the West,
• 42:46
  we've talked about,
• 42:47
  we've highlighted,
• 42:48
  uh,
• 42:49
  the fact that
• 42:50
  the
• 42:51
  Ukrainian drone campaign,
• 42:52
  for instance,
• 42:53
  has
• 42:53
  been able to impact
• 42:56
  To some degree,
• 42:57
  uh,
• 42:57
  the Russian population,
• 42:59
  right?
• 42:59
  The,
• 42:59
  the,
• 42:59
  they've been striking deeper into Russian territory.
• 43:02
  They've been hitting
• 43:03
  everything from warehouses to energy infrastructure.
• 43:06
  Uh,
• 43:07
  so it is,
• 43:07
  in a sense,
• 43:08
  bringing the war
• 43:10
  home to the Russian population.
• 43:13
  But
• 43:15
  I think in the West,
• 43:16
  maybe we,
• 43:17
  we imagine then that,
• 43:19
  OK,
• 43:19
  that means there's going to be this great level of
• 43:21
  dissatisfaction amongst the Russian population and that that for there
• 43:25
  there's there's gonna be,
• 43:27
  uh,
• 43:27
  some sort of negative result for Putin.
• 43:29
  People are gonna turn against Putin or they're gonna
• 43:32
  Where exactly are we?
• 43:33
  And was,
• 43:33
  was Putin,
• 43:34
  in your perspective,
• 43:35
  in your assessment,
• 43:36
  has he ever been really worried about that or does
• 43:38
  he just believe he's got this kung fu-like grip on power
• 43:42
  and
• 43:42
  it doesn't really matter what the population thinks?
• 43:46
  Mike,
• 43:47
  now we are descending into a very deep
• 43:50
  philosophical discussion about Russians,
• 43:53
  Russians they really are,
• 43:55
  and here I would like to,
• 43:57
  I'll try,
• 43:58
  I'll try,
• 43:58
  I promise I'll try to be very brief.
• 44:01
  I'll,
• 44:01
  um.
• 44:03
  I would like to
• 44:04
  point out
• 44:05
  that
• 44:06
  Russians are
• 44:08
  unlike Westerners,
• 44:10
  and a lot of people in the West,
• 44:11
  they judge by their own standards,
• 44:14
  by themselves.
• 44:14
  For example,
• 44:15
  if gas goes
• 44:17
  up in price a great deal,
• 44:18
  then the popularity of the current majority
• 44:21
  in the Senate and current president drops,
• 44:23
  right,
• 44:23
  and people start protesting,
• 44:25
  speaking up and things like that.
• 44:27
  That doesn't happen in Russia.
• 44:28
  They think that Russians would do the same,
• 44:31
  but it doesn't happen.
• 44:34
  Ukrainians have done tremendous damage to Russian economy and Russian society
• 44:39
  this past few months.
• 44:41
  Russia is undergoing the biggest fuel crisis,
• 44:44
  the biggest crisis ever since 1991.
• 44:48
  Its economy is in the ruins.
• 44:50
  When I talk about the economy,
• 44:51
  I say Russian economy is in freefall.
• 44:53
  OK,
• 44:54
  it's going to hit the ground hard.
• 44:56
  And
• 44:58
  that is not going to make Russians
• 45:01
  go and try to take their fates into their own hands and try to change something.
• 45:06
  Their professional sufferers
• 45:08
  for generations have been,
• 45:10
  they have been conditioned,
• 45:12
  engineered.
• 45:13
  Into a vein
• 45:15
  and that's what they're doing right now and the big,
• 45:18
  the biggest outcome of the summer for me is that at first when the Russians started
• 45:23
  running into problems,
• 45:24
  huge problems with gas,
• 45:25
  it's simply shortage of gas and the prices have skyrocketed,
• 45:29
  they started complaining loudly.
• 45:32
  For a few weeks and then
• 45:35
  they got used to it,
• 45:36
  they adopted.
• 45:38
  And now it's they they made this the the fuel lines,
• 45:42
  you know,
• 45:42
  the higher budgets for fuel,
• 45:44
  they made it.
• 45:46
  Part of their lives.
• 45:49
  You know,
• 45:49
  it's to them it's like.
• 45:51
  What can we do?
• 45:52
  This is our life now.
• 45:54
  We just have to live with it.
• 45:55
  We have to.
• 45:56
  And then the authorities keep feeding them,
• 45:57
  Oh,
• 45:58
  just wait a little bit.
• 45:59
  Everything will get better.
• 46:00
  Just
• 46:01
  light is around the corner,
• 46:02
  you know,
• 46:03
  just vote.
• 46:04
  Vote united Russia,
• 46:05
  you know,
• 46:06
  just like you mentioned in the beginning,
• 46:07
  you know,
• 46:08
  united Russia equals Putin equals victory in Ukraine.
• 46:11
  So
• 46:12
  if you want victory,
• 46:13
  if you want good life,
• 46:14
  come and vote for united Russia,
• 46:15
  because if you vote against,
• 46:18
  you are with our enemies,
• 46:19
  you know,
• 46:19
  that type of thing.
• 46:20
  So.
• 46:21
  Russians are professional sufferers,
• 46:23
  so not,
• 46:23
  not gonna,
• 46:23
  this,
• 46:24
  this problems definitely have made their lives worse,
• 46:26
  but they're not going to.
• 46:29
  Yeah,
• 46:29
  at least for now,
• 46:30
  they're not going to.
• 46:32
  Ignite protest,
• 46:33
  ignite,
• 46:34
  um,
• 46:35
  you know,
• 46:35
  that are civic,
• 46:37
  civic,
• 46:38
  uh,
• 46:38
  conscience,
• 46:39
  so to speak.
• 46:39
  Yeah,
• 46:40
  it's a,
• 46:41
  it's a great point,
• 46:42
  um,
• 46:43
  and I think you're,
• 46:43
  you're right,
• 46:44
  and
• 46:45
  I don't wanna say it's a uniquely American thing because you,
• 46:48
  you see it in,
• 46:49
  in the West,
• 46:50
  uh,
• 46:50
  at times,
• 46:51
  uh,
• 46:52
  outside the US,
• 46:53
  but
• 46:54
  Uh,
• 46:55
  Americans in particular,
• 46:56
  um,
• 46:58
  tend to be very good at at at
• 47:01
  Mirroring their values or putting their thought process onto other cultures,
• 47:06
  um,
• 47:06
  and whether we're talking about Russia,
• 47:08
  China,
• 47:08
  or
• 47:09
  the Middle East in particular is another good example of where we just,
• 47:13
  we,
• 47:13
  we have a hard time understanding
• 47:15
  that
• 47:16
  other thought process and the way that people
• 47:19
  make decisions and we tend to mirror our values and think,
• 47:22
  well,
• 47:23
  if we just do this,
• 47:24
  then this is how they'll
• 47:25
  behave,
• 47:26
  this is how they'll react,
• 47:27
  because that's how we would react.
• 47:29
  So it is a significant issue that just never seems to change.
• 47:33
  Let me ask you this with the,
• 47:35
  with,
• 47:36
  once the elections are over,
• 47:37
  there had been some talk that perhaps Putin was waiting for these
• 47:42
  elections to wrap up
• 47:44
  before he then would,
• 47:46
  uh,
• 47:46
  announce a new mass mobilization,
• 47:49
  possibly of some 300,000 or more
• 47:51
  personnel
• 47:52
  to shore up the military,
• 47:54
  which has been suffering some
• 47:56
  fairly staggering losses.
• 47:59
  Uh,
• 47:59
  for quite some time.
• 48:00
  Do you think that that might be at play?
• 48:03
  It's not a question of might be,
• 48:05
  it's going to happen
• 48:07
  and it will happen starting
• 48:09
  Monday.
• 48:10
  I have tons of signals coming from Russia,
• 48:13
  quite a few inside information,
• 48:15
  quite a few pieces of inside information,
• 48:17
  and
• 48:17
  my general understanding of the society of the economy.
• 48:22
  Just give you a couple examples,
• 48:23
  um.
• 48:27
  The tariffs,
• 48:28
  they,
• 48:29
  you know,
• 48:30
  Russia,
• 48:30
  Russian state
• 48:32
  owns
• 48:33
  natural gas,
• 48:35
  owns most of the power plants,
• 48:36
  so the utilities,
• 48:38
  they
• 48:38
  come from
• 48:39
  Russian state,
• 48:40
  and Russian state,
• 48:42
  you know,
• 48:42
  sets the tariffs.
• 48:44
  Through provincial governments and so forth,
• 48:46
  so
• 48:47
  usually they increase
• 48:49
  once a year in July.
• 48:50
  And they increased from different provinces from 7 to 22%.
• 48:54
  Imagine your utility bill goes up in one year,
• 48:58
  almost a quarter,
• 48:59
  but
• 49:01
  They decided to postpone from July
• 49:04
  until October 1st.
• 49:06
  To wait after the elections are over,
• 49:08
  OK,
• 49:09
  so,
• 49:09
  uh,
• 49:10
  the utility hike
• 49:11
  starts
• 49:12
  very soon in a couple of weeks,
• 49:14
  and it was supposed to start in July.
• 49:16
  Now,
• 49:16
  um,
• 49:17
  a lot of people inside the government are evacuating their families and their
• 49:22
  assets because they know that they have been orders already for the mobilization.
• 49:27
  I have
• 49:28
  an insight,
• 49:28
  and this is the first time I'm
• 49:30
  voicing it online.
• 49:32
  My
• 49:33
  insight says 1.8
• 49:35
  million Russian men
• 49:36
  will be mobilized,
• 49:37
  or at least they will be aimed.
• 49:40
  That number is the aim of mobilization,
• 49:42
  1.8.
• 49:43
  I heard different numbers,
• 49:44
  but
• 49:45
  this is what I come up with.
• 49:48
  This is not if
• 49:51
  this is
• 49:52
  when and the winning is next week.
• 49:55
  But uh if we go back to
• 49:58
  2022 or the last time there was a large scale mobilization,
• 50:02
  we saw how unpopular it was.
• 50:05
  And
• 50:06
  I mean,
• 50:06
  it's
• 50:08
  Yeah,
• 50:08
  if,
• 50:08
  if he's doing it again,
• 50:10
  it,
• 50:10
  it speaks to two things.
• 50:12
  Either they're in serious trouble in terms of their personnel,
• 50:15
  uh,
• 50:16
  as it exists currently,
• 50:17
  their,
• 50:17
  their headcount for the military,
• 50:19
  um,
• 50:20
  and or
• 50:21
  also at the same time,
• 50:22
  it points to the fact that Putin,
• 50:25
  uh,
• 50:25
  really is confident.
• 50:27
  In his position and is not worried.
• 50:29
  Again,
• 50:30
  going back to what we talked about just a moment ago about
• 50:32
  how the West has kind of been looking at this and thinking,
• 50:34
  uh,
• 50:34
  he might be on shaky ground here.
• 50:36
  People are getting dissatisfied,
• 50:37
  the economic conditions are bad,
• 50:39
  are they not happy with the war.
• 50:41
  He's gonna go through this mass mobilization knowing
• 50:43
  how it was received the last time.
• 50:47
  Kind of tells you he's feeling pretty comfortable.
• 50:52
  I don't think
• 50:53
  he is feeling comfortable now at all.
• 50:56
  I think quite on the contrary,
• 50:59
  the
• 51:01
  I believe
• 51:03
  that,
• 51:04
  well,
• 51:05
  I see it
• 51:06
  from everywhere in Russia that
• 51:08
  what Putin
• 51:09
  started in 2022,
• 51:12
  not just
• 51:13
  the bomb in Ukraine,
• 51:14
  but to Russia as well,
• 51:16
  putting economy onto
• 51:18
  military tracks,
• 51:19
  going after small businesses,
• 51:21
  small and medium sized businesses,
• 51:23
  taking away freedoms from people.
• 51:26
  This
• 51:27
  is not sustainable.
• 51:29
  You can live like this for some time until
• 51:33
  you have reserves.
• 51:35
  Once reserves are gone,
• 51:37
  and reserves are different,
• 51:38
  are different kinds of reserves,
• 51:41
  money
• 51:41
  that Russian government had stashed,
• 51:43
  the savings account,
• 51:44
  the National Welfare Fund,
• 51:46
  people,
• 51:48
  businesses,
• 51:49
  you can only go
• 51:51
  so long like this,
• 51:53
  and
• 51:54
  Russia has come to a full stop.
• 51:57
  I,
• 51:58
  you know,
• 51:59
  as I mentioned,
• 52:00
  it is the biggest crisis
• 52:02
  Russia has ever seen.
• 52:03
  People are dissatisfied.
• 52:05
  The professional sufferers.
• 52:07
  That's why they're not taking it to the streets,
• 52:09
  but they're pretty angry.
• 52:11
  The money is out.
• 52:13
  The economy is in ruins,
• 52:14
  basically.
• 52:15
  Russia is spending so much more than it's earning,
• 52:18
  and it can borrow
• 52:20
  because it's banned from international borrowing and
• 52:23
  In Russia,
• 52:24
  no one has money to borrow,
• 52:26
  so the only way out is to print money that brings even more economic problems.
• 52:32
  You know,
• 52:33
  OK,
• 52:33
  if that's,
• 52:34
  if that is the case,
• 52:35
  I'm sorry for interrupting,
• 52:36
  uh,
• 52:36
  Costantine,
• 52:36
  but I need to be mindful of time.
• 52:38
  But if that's the case,
• 52:40
  uh,
• 52:41
  then
• 52:42
  what do you anticipate?
• 52:43
  And if,
• 52:43
  if the intel that you've got is,
• 52:45
  is,
• 52:45
  is solid and,
• 52:46
  and they do start this,
• 52:48
  uh,
• 52:48
  new mobilization,
• 52:50
  um,
• 52:51
  new,
• 52:51
  new
• 52:52
  effort,
• 52:53
  um,
• 52:54
  next week,
• 52:55
  then what do you anticipate
• 52:57
  will be the reaction from the public?
• 53:01
  First of all,
• 53:02
  they'll try to hide it as much as they can.
• 53:04
  They have been mobilizing people.
• 53:06
  Uh,
• 53:06
  they were manhunts
• 53:08
  in,
• 53:08
  uh,
• 53:08
  different cities,
• 53:09
  Rostov and Don,
• 53:10
  Penza
• 53:11
  through the summer.
• 53:12
  You know,
• 53:13
  people aren't reacting.
• 53:15
  Those who,
• 53:16
  uh,
• 53:17
  that concerns them personally,
• 53:18
  oh,
• 53:18
  they,
• 53:19
  they are outraged,
• 53:19
  but,
• 53:20
  you know,
• 53:20
  uh,
• 53:21
  Russian informational space is much controlled,
• 53:23
  so
• 53:24
  there's not much information if you don't,
• 53:26
  uh,
• 53:26
  specifically look for it like,
• 53:27
  like I do,
• 53:28
  for example,
• 53:29
  like researchers do.
• 53:30
  So they have been mobilizing already.
• 53:33
  They will
• 53:34
  definitely
• 53:36
  mobilize.
• 53:37
  They will be mobilizing on steroids.
• 53:38
  That's what I
• 53:39
  use for the term,
• 53:40
  and
• 53:41
  the army is absolutely
• 53:44
  not moving anywhere.
• 53:45
  There's a dead end
• 53:46
  for Russian armed forces and
• 53:49
  I think the plan is that
• 53:51
  they will try to get as many people as possible and throw them into
• 53:55
  the meat grinder because the only tactics Russians have used so far is just
• 54:01
  they call it the meat storms.
• 54:03
  They send people and people get killed at the battlefield,
• 54:06
  but you know they send
• 54:08
  large numbers and then they push,
• 54:10
  you know,
• 54:11
  meter by meter they push forward.
• 54:13
  That's why I think that they need such a large number of men just to push
• 54:18
  further into Ukraine and to gain some grounds
• 54:21
  because right now there's nothing to show.
• 54:23
  The front line has been frozen since late 2022,
• 54:27
  and
• 54:27
  Ukrainians are taking
• 54:29
  more land back than these days than that they are
• 54:32
  that the Russians are seizing.
• 54:35
  OK,
• 54:35
  so
• 54:36
  that's,
• 54:36
  that's the only,
• 54:37
  that's the only tactic they have left.
• 54:40
  And the big question for me and I think for everyone is,
• 54:44
  will Putin
• 54:46
  start escalating with the West?
• 54:49
  Will he invade
• 54:50
  or attack one of NATO countries,
• 54:52
  the Baltics,
• 54:54
  perhaps Poland?
• 54:56
  That that no one knows,
• 54:57
  um,
• 54:58
  I don't think the decision has been made,
• 54:59
  but that's been in the talks I'm pretty sure,
• 55:02
  so um that is under the question.
• 55:03
  What is not under the question is there will be
• 55:06
  um.
• 55:08
  Taking more Russian mail,
• 55:09
  throwing them to the meat grinder,
• 55:10
  and
• 55:11
  that way they will try to gain advantage,
• 55:13
  which I don't think they will personally.
• 55:15
  That's my,
• 55:16
  well,
• 55:17
  I say no,
• 55:17
  and,
• 55:18
  and thank you for that,
• 55:19
  but I think that,
• 55:19
  and what we,
• 55:21
  what we need to talk about next time is what you've just alluded to,
• 55:23
  which is,
• 55:24
  um,
• 55:25
  the Russian,
• 55:26
  however you want to refer to it,
• 55:27
  hybrid war,
• 55:28
  uh,
• 55:28
  against the,
• 55:29
  uh,
• 55:30
  European Union,
• 55:30
  against NATO,
• 55:31
  uh,
• 55:31
  allies.
• 55:33
  Uh,
• 55:33
  that's been going on for some time,
• 55:35
  but it's getting increasing attention,
• 55:37
  right?
• 55:37
  And,
• 55:37
  and
• 55:38
  this,
• 55:38
  this idea that
• 55:39
  they could be,
• 55:40
  uh,
• 55:41
  becoming more aggressive towards,
• 55:42
  uh,
• 55:44
  NATO countries,
• 55:44
  towards the eastern front of NATO,
• 55:46
  uh,
• 55:47
  for
• 55:48
  whatever reason,
• 55:49
  and we are seeing that,
• 55:50
  we're seeing more incidents,
• 55:52
  um,
• 55:52
  in Europe,
• 55:54
  uh,
• 55:54
  that are being attributed to
• 55:56
  Russian sabotage.
• 55:58
  So,
• 55:58
  we,
• 55:59
  I wanna pick that up next time that we have you on,
• 56:01
  which implies that you need to come on next time we call you.
• 56:04
  So I hope you will,
• 56:05
  Konstantin.
• 56:05
  I always,
• 56:06
  I love these conversations.
• 56:07
  Very happy that you're
• 56:09
  now sitting,
• 56:10
  um,
• 56:10
  in a,
• 56:11
  in a brand new location.
• 56:12
  We wish you absolutely nothing but the best in settling in,
• 56:15
  uh,
• 56:15
  and we also look forward very much to the next conversation,
• 56:18
  Matt.
• 56:19
  Thank you,
• 56:20
  thank you very much.
• 56:21
  We'll talk to you soon.
• 56:22
  Kostantin Semoylov,
• 56:23
  you can find his YouTube channel.
• 56:25
  I suggest you go there.
• 56:26
  It's called at Inside Russia,
• 56:28
  once again on YouTube.
• 56:30
  Well,
• 56:30
  that's all the time we have for this week's PDB situation reports
• 56:34
  while I'm on the road.
• 56:36
  By the way,
• 56:36
  make sure you pay attention.
• 56:38
  Ole Miss gonna be playing LSU on Saturday.
• 56:41
  You won't wanna miss that.
• 56:42
  If you have any questions or comments,
• 56:44
  hotty toddy,
• 56:46
  or humorous anecdotes,
• 56:47
  just reach out to me at PDB@thefirstv.com.
• 56:50
  The highlight of every week,
• 56:51
  of course,
• 56:52
  at PDB headquarters,
• 56:53
  which
• 56:53
  Yeah,
• 56:54
  it's a secret location,
• 56:55
  but I can tell you that it's underground
• 56:56
  and it's uh involving some dormant volcano somewhere.
• 57:00
  It's why Carl the mailman somehow finds our secret location and drops
• 57:03
  off another sack of mail brimming with your questions and comments.
• 57:07
  Well,
• 57:07
  every month we take some of those,
• 57:08
  we put them into an Ask Me Anything episode,
• 57:11
  and one is sitting on the launch pad.
• 57:13
  We're just polishing it up and we'll be sending that off.
• 57:16
  Uh,
• 57:16
  here very shortly onto the internet,
• 57:18
  so the web thing,
• 57:19
  whatever that is.
• 57:20
  Uh,
• 57:21
  so keep your cards and letters coming.
• 57:22
  Finally,
• 57:22
  listen to the podcast of the show ad-free.
• 57:25
  Uh,
• 57:25
  just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief.
• 57:28
  It,
• 57:28
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• 57:29
  Uh,
• 57:30
  just visit PDBpremium.com,
• 57:33
  and I mean,
• 57:33
  it's easy peasy.
• 57:34
  Bob's your uncle,
• 57:35
  whatever they say.
• 57:36
  I'm Mike Baker.
• 57:37
  And uh,
• 57:38
  you don't get this sort of polished show just anywhere.
• 57:41
  Till next time,
• 57:42
  you know the drill.
• 57:43
  Stay informed.
• 57:44
  Stay safe.
• 57:45
  Stay cool.