Latest / Kinesis Money / China's Indian Gold Grab - LFTV Ep 275

Transcript

China's Indian Gold Grab - LFTV Ep 275 · Kinesis Money

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: As we look at shortly, three to five tons of physical gold bleeding out of the cartel's hands per day really begins to add up.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: We've got this ticking time on the talking vault, the one and only Andrew McMuire.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Life from the Vault.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Life from the Vault, brought to you by Kinesis Money, and we're certainly glad you've joined us here today.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: And Life from the Vault, by the way, is a show that goes way beyond the headlines to uncover the truth about the precious metals industry.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: And joining us today is Kinesis's very own world-renowned whistleblower and precious metals industry expert, Andrew McGuire.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: And this week we'll be answering more questions from the Life from the Vault community.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: So keep those questions coming in.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: All you got to do is if you want to ask Andrew a question, just look at the link below.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: Uh click on it, record your message, and you never know.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: You know, your question may well be chosen for Andrew to answer right here on Live from the Vault.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: So let's head over to the UK and talking gold with Andrew McGuire.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: Hey Andrew, uh, into here we are, another two weeks later.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: Seems like time is uh just flying by really quick here, but into a massive war-induced, I guess, all the volatility that's happening, which is once again picked up again, again, again today.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: And um, as we record this episode here on Wednesday, we've had a lot of subscriber questions asking if you can help identify where the large leverage goal, gold and silver future sellers finally get overrun by the unleveraged physical buyers, the real buyers.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_01: Well, hey, Shane, nice to be with you.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: Nice to be with everybody, of course.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: And yes, there has been um a lot of questions.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_01: And I think it's so important to um to, you know, really the focus really um and is always the focus, but more so today.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the focus for these bi-weekly live from the vault uh market updates is to de is to both demystify the heavily influenced, synthetically driven action, which we can see today, into increased war, um drums beating today.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: Uh as but it's also to provide a realistic price expectation into each monthly stair step along the way.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_01: And that's what we're trying to do.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_01: And this week, with fresh US-Iranian clashes and sanctions being added today, uh, and with ceasefire efforts looking stalled into a higher dollar, higher oil, bond yields rising.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_01: It really is, of course, it's weighing on gold again, and silver, of course, and all commodities, and all the automated mechanical crosses against gold and silver are once again fueling bearish headwinds.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_01: Now, I will look at where we stand into this paper to physical gold and silver battle, and a battle it is, by answering the most misunderstood question, and it aggregates down to how is it actually possible for an increasingly illiquid, unbacked, underpriced COMEX futures gold market to be able to disproportionately bearishly influence the physically deliverable T plus one?
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: I'm talking about deliverable local London spot gold benchmark fixed price.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_01: So if we understand what is driving the action and why, then we can make better informed decisions and we're less likely to be unnecessarily shaken out of our precious metals, uh precious metals, wealth protection assets by looking at where the central banks and sovereigns and comex pit managers are actually buying.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: Now, given today's bearish action, we could this could not be a better time to answer this very, very on-point series of questions.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: Now, in particular, the question arises from the fact that spot gold, as fixed in London twice a day, is actually Basel III NSFR compliant, it's a first-tier asset.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: So how it how is it possible for an unbacked futures gold market to sell all the way down into what is the historic self-fulfilling, synthetically derived bull bear 200-day moving average indicator?
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_01: Where since our last episode, the house has and is ringing the register against leverage shorts into the lowest COMEX gold open interest in history.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: Now, to understand this, we need to look at the uh at the influence that leverage has on the NSFR compliant fixed price, but how inevitably that backfires steadily, and in this case into a sequentially higher, increasingly physically influenced 200-day moving average stair step, where the 60-year paper to physical battlefield is gradually being won.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_01: Now we'll look at that in the charts in a little while, but first, as exposed by WikiLeaks, the Comex Gold Futures Market was launched in 1974 for the sole purpose of containing and synthetically managing the price of gold, specifically designed to swamp sufficient freshly printed paper gold supply to dilute and uh and then to benchmark a global gold foreign exchange price, which no longer represents a real supply-demand price.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: Now, as the leaked WikiLeaks memo outlined, the objective was to inject volatility and as later admitted by industry apologists to add sufficient 100 to 1 leverage paper gold supply, and that the object is to press real supply-demand foreign exchange price.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_01: Now, bearing in mind that the foreign exchange price is a$15 trillion a year market.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_01: So this is not only to dissuade investors from holding gold, but because gold is one side of a foreign exchange cross against the dollar and other national currencies, that is.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_01: So the inflated dollar against gold, what that did was dissuade foreign central banks from swapping their unbacked dollars for US Treasury gold.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: So, which is what they were doing, which is why Nixon pulled gold off the dollar off the gold peg.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_01: So to understand what this self-fulfilling 200-day moving average bull bear trend line represents, and that was all the way back, if you look at it, from Bank of England using it in 1833 to hide their gold reserves.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: Then there was R.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_01: H.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um Hooker formalizing the math for it in 1901, then Charles Dow applying this bull bear indicator to stocks in the 1920s.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: Now we need to put it into perspective, though, with real asset gold and silver.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_01: Now, from its 1994 launch, and for the last 60 years, this 200-day moving average has been deliberately gaslighted as the trailing inflection trigger point where the house pushed 100 to 1 leverage to the point where the foreign exchange lines crossed, and the dollar actually then became overvalued against gold, incentivizing foreign central banks to swap dollars for gold.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: So this was the point they didn't want to go past.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: So the 200-day moving average was kept flat enough to manage the price for many, many, many years.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but close enough to be able to tag it, but the ability to really gaslight people to saying, hey, if it's below the 200, we've got to sell.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_01: And if it's above the 200, hmm, okay, let's buy.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: So so obviously that what this is what this was gaslighted to believe.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_01: Now it kept it flat enough to manage price, but began to rise after the Brown's bottom, which is when uh Gordon Brown sold all of the uh UK gold.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_01: And not only did he do it in such a way uh where it would get the worst price, which really gave the game away by announcing that he was gonna sell it and then crashing the price.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and that was just before the head of the millennia.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_01: Now, this painfully slow gold price appreciation against the dollar continued until two tectonic events ripped the rug from under the Comex Price Suppression Exchange.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_01: You can see it on the charts when we look at it.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_01: Now, these two events ultimately allowed the IMF, who were refusing to sell the PBOC, the remaining 200 tons of the 400-ton sale in 2010, which was the last IMF sale of gold.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_01: And if you remember, they allowed India to buy 200 tons of the 400, but they blocked China from even agreeing to sell, we'll just buy it at market to bid for the other half.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_01: Now, usually when you and we've seen India uh also selling gold recently to try and support their currency, but but the this is central bank to central bank stuff.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't hit the market, it is monetary gold that is being settled within from central bank to central bank, and China would be very happy to take it, uh, but they refuse to sell it.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_01: And that really gave the game away.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and uh even though they were going to pay the at market price.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_01: Now, this marked the event where the PBOC, oh, say, okay, let's step in, and they aggressively stepped up central bank monetary gold buying and opened up gold to its citizens directly after this in 2010.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_01: Now we looked at all the reasons for this refusal in more detail in prior episodes, but to sum it up, the remaining 200 tons was deliberately kept back by the Fed to leverage it 100 to 1, turning 200 tons of physical gold into 20,000 tons of paper supply.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_01: And that was part of the process of maintaining its then 40-year price suppression mandate.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_01: That was 40 years on from the original mandate.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the official smoke and mirrors illusion masked the fact that the dollar's purchasing power as benchmarked against gold had dwindled to just three cents on the dollar.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_01: So by 2020, foreign central banks woke up to this loss of dollar purchasing power against real assets, and which they were having, which they were also buying or producing, and they stepped up aggressively hedging dollar and US Treasury debasements with physical gold.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_01: Now let's kind of look at the two game-changing events.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_01: And the first official shot across the Fed's suppression battle was when the BIS squared all of their remaining 500 tons of 50 years of paper gold for dollar swaps.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_01: This was to ready themselves and their central bank site accounts that they managed uh for the for the uh European facing central banks.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: Um, they wanted to get ready for the reclassification, the reclassification of gold as a Basel III first-year asset, and which was on the 1st of January 2023.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_01: Now that forced traders who are offering otherwise unregulated spot gold at the fixes to be one-to-one physically backed.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_01: If you remember, COVID exposed that, nearly crashed the entire system, forced a bailout, and that's when the BIS said, we need to, if you're going to offer something in the it's an unregulated market, but if you offer something at the fix, it has to be deliverable.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: And that's what this was all about.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: Now this was the first inflection point where the Fed um uh agency CME, LBMA cartel, were powerless to block central banks to once again step up swapping dollars for physical gold at the Got Global facing FX fixes.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they they they they begged and screamed, the LBMA begged and screamed that this shouldn't be implied, but it was.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: Um this also marked the first split in 50 years between the European facing long for gold, Bank of International Settlements, the central bank of central banks, and a split between the Fed left holding the bag on a massive, rehypothecated US Treasury gold position.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_01: Now, as of the 1st of January 2023, the Fed was left as the only global central bank still trying to manage a rapidly debasing dollar against gold.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_01: Now, while Basel III gold reclassifying gold as a first-year deliverable asset impeded the Fed's ability to cap a rising gold price, it was nevertheless that there's still 600 to 800 tons of leveraged paper gold traded and settled inside the CME LBMA ring fence with only three and a half, three to five tons.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_01: It's average averaging over the last many years, uh just three to five tons of actual NSFR compliant T plus one deliverable gold to comply.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_01: And obviously, that gold was then forced into physical delivery.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: However, as we'll look at shortly, three to five tons of physical gold bleeding out of the cartel's hands per day really begins to add up and it influences even the synthetic indicators.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_01: So back to looking at uh this all-watched and regularly attacked 200-day moving average, which is this white line here.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: Now, this 60-year anchor that the House relied on to lay off billions of 100 to 1 short bets against the speculators is beginning to break free.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: Now, because this is about where we looked at the second shot that inflicted the cartel's fatal wound, directly followed the China's surprise launch of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which is right here, this circle right here.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_01: And while we'd previously evidenced multiple cartel wash and rinse cycles calmulating and getting below the 200-day moving average, not once have they been able to sustain a meaningful chart-painted bear market sell event at this rising 200-day moving average.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_01: And although it's$2,500 per ounce higher, it's now reflecting a better balance.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_01: This is beginning to reflect a better balance between where the rising central bank physical bids now trail higher.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_01: In fact, the 200-day moving average has not been bridged once since the Shanghai Foods Exchange was launched in March 2024.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: Now we've had some tags of it, and what that in each case it's triggered central bank buying.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: Now I've reflected the 200-day moving average on the 240-minute chart, which is the four-hour chart, so to give us a better view of the top to bottom and what's going on.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the recent war-driven higher stair step retest, which is here and here, of the 200-day moving average, reveals the degree that a plus 100 to 1 COMEX-driven leverage has had on the market.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: But it hit central bank support, regardless of that leverage.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_01: And as we've just evidenced into the most recent February through end of May wash and rinse cycle, so all the way through here through to here, this degree of leverage can drive the gold price above or below the real-world unleveraged physical supply-demand equilibrium price, benchmarked twice daily in the 100% physically black global-facing SGE gold exchange corridor.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_01: Now, in order to fix a true supply-demand physical bid price, a bullion bar seller must first purchase and fully pay for the bar before it can be offered for sale.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_01: Quite the difference.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: Now, as we evidenced into the$5,600, the end of January synthetically driven$5,600 highs, naked long momentums had overrun the steadily rising aggregated$5,000 physically determined equilibrium January price, which was right about here.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_01: Right, in fact, pretty close to where this 618 FIBO is now.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_01: So, in other words, that was where the physical levels were supportive.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_01: Now, until this$5,000 threshold was breached, the PIT managers, the market-making LBMA CME commercials exposed to T plus one delivery obligations were definitely one-to-one hedged in the spot foreign exchange markets.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_01: We looked at that multiple times in the in the CO2 reports.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_01: However, as soon as this 100-to-1 leveraged naked longs began borrowing open interest from the house to chase paper gold above 5,000, the house one-to-one took the short side.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_01: This is where it gets interesting.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the longer, and I'm just going to pop back to the daily chart for a second, the longer a synthetic price endures, whether it's on the way up, more importantly, the higher the underpinning physical support level becomes.
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_01: And we've been tracking that all the way from the Shanghai Futures Exchange launch to now.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_01: As was exampled when after the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched, gold broke out$3,000 higher to that$5,000 level.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_01: And the house one-to-one then, of course, took the short side once and only once it got to$5,000.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_01: Now we're recording this on a day where we've got a lot of selling based upon war kicking off again.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: First time the war kicked off, we were down to the 200 was here.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_01: And now the 200 is just rising.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_01: And the central bank bids are waiting for, and well, that's why it might get likely gets front run, as it did marginally here.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_01: Now we're under 5,000 now.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_01: And but under the Smoke and Mirrors Comex Action, we're evidencing strong central bank accumulation.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_01: So as the price in here, this is so let's step and see what happened.
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_01: This is where it consolidated briefly at the physical support level.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_01: So as the price overshot$5,000 by$600 in just six trading days, the risk to the Feds leverage Bank of International Settlements borrowings grew exponentially.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_01: And remember, they had to settle their Bank of International Settlements vets consistently higher and higher and higher.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_01: And here we were now looking hundreds of dollars higher,$1,000 higher than where they wanted it.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: Why do you think they they changed the margin requirements?
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_01: They needed to fix it lower, even though it was higher than the prior fix, the prior settlement place.
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_01: Now, if you think about it, at a potential 100 to 1 leverage, 100 tons of borrowed gold leverage can be leveraged into a potential 10,000 tons.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_01: And that would ultimately, if called on, expose the Fed to three times annual gold supply, having to be repaid at market.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_01: But it would be more likely to force the US Treasury gold price to be revalued.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_01: Now, central banks buy at any price.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: So the risk of a higher stair step being established had to be defended, as I say.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_01: So, in full control of the naked long book, a rapid succession of higher borrowing costs were parachuted into the massively over-leveraged COMEX-driven bubble right here.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_01: And that was just as the new contract was launched.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_01: So raising those borrowing costs meant you had to sell your positions, some of your positions to maintain a tight margin position.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_01: And then combined with, of course, some bid clever bid pulling, what that did was literally that I mean, that we're talking about margin calls on these hundred to one leverage longs triggered a$1,200 sell-off into$4,400.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_01: However, word was out.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_01: Due to dollar debasement, war rumblings, and extremely large central bank sovereign bottom fishing, the physical market bid tolerance has now risen to$5,200.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_01: And that is actually all the way up here.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_01: And it was beginning to settle in, as I said.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: Then we had the war break out again, or it stepped up, and literally the$5,200 equilibrium price was actually already being set.
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: Right here, are being benchmarked$700 to$800 below this current physical supply demand estimation.
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_01: So in summary, beneath the synthetic action, based on the relentless daily three to five ton exit of T plus one NSFR compliant bullion, the steadily rising real supply-demand balance price is currently assessed at$5,200 and rising.
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_01: And we're recording this into a big sell-off.
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, so where are we now?
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_01: And as we now evidence the largest central bank and sovereign buying in history into deeply, synthetically and physically oversold conditions.
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_01: Now, net of the synthetic driven price volatility, liquidity providers assess steadily this a steadily rising physical demand price estimations currently marry up with the mid-range of bullion bank expectations of between 5,200 to 7,000 by the end of the fourth quarter of 2026.
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_01: And while some bullion bank uh expectations were lowered following the 100 to 1 leverage sell-off, none were below the current rising equilibrium price.
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_01: And once the war fog does dissipate, and it will, because it they sure as heck need it, um the US needs that to be resolved ahead of the midterms and on, liquidity providers assess 6,500 is closer to the rising end of the equilibrium balance.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_01: Now, as we know, when dealing with gold, silver, and all real assets, leverage works well until direction turns against you.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_01: And as far as gold is concerned, due to its underlying foreign exchange and bond relationships, leverage is exponentially larger than non-monetary real assets.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_01: So, as an example, uh as of current pricing levels, which we're looking at today, into this raid, the war raid again, it only requires 9% of borrowed casino chips to control and run a leverage gold book.
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_01: This means that to do uh to do so, a borrow, a borrower, they only require 9 ounces of paper gold to control 91 ounces of unallocated cash-settled non-delivery gold, meaning it only requires$41,000 to inflate or deflate 100-ounce GC lots priced at$460,000.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a hell of a uh leverage.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_01: Now, Fed imposed spec limits really set the CME's 6,000 lot position limit for taking or making delivery in the spot month, meaning each CME actor can control um uh over 2.76 billion of gold assets for just$248,400.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, also factor in for non-spot months, there are no position Fed position limits.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: And then the CME uh may, if they're asked, uh if asked uh by the CFTC, which is probably rare, um, to trigger review.
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_01: Because as long as intraday position uh violations are squared by the air by the daily pit close, then obviously they're not reported.
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_01: So it's square and and and nobody will be aware of what happened during a very volatile session.
• 27:30
  SPEAKER_01: Now, clearly the Fed can waive position limit rules anytime they want, as has been demonstrated in the past.
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_01: And the most obvious uh we've looked at some of these in the past, but most obvious in gold uh was following the ABN MRO delivery failure, which prompted a weekend presidential White House meeting, summoning all the bullion banks to coordinate to rescue the CME Comex from an imminent delivery default.
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_01: That was in 2013.
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_01: And what they did, they were in asked to add thousands of tons, clearly position concentration uh sanctioned, thousands of tons of concentrated paper gold supply.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: And it what it did was serve to wash out a lot of longs who had been standing to take physical delivery, thereby relieving the um, synthetically relieving the breach, the paper to physical collapse.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_01: And we saw similar position limit exemptions have come from time to time, and they've been sanctioned, and they were sanctioned in silver, as was revealed by a CFTC commissioner, uh ex-CFC Commissioner Bart Chilton, in a televised uh uh Russian television interview with me, stating that JP Morgan was given a Fed-sanctioned CFT position concentration exemption shortly after taking over the bailed-out best earned silver short squeeze implosion.
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_01: Now, I've we're putting in a link to this interview uh uh at the bottom of this um of this uh episode.
• 29:10
  SPEAKER_01: And I really do suggest you look at it because anyone who's ever doubted or or pushed back against this kind of thing going on, it is is just it's impossible for them to dispute this.
• 29:25
  SPEAKER_01: Because this exemption that we're talking about here enabled the Fed agent JP Morgan to drive down the silver price by a whopping 62% from 21 bucks where it was down to around eight bucks.
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_01: However, as was revealed by Bart in the Bart Chilton interview, this position concentration exemption, as he said, went on for far longer than it should have been allowed.
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_01: And this interview was recorded ahead of Basel III being implemented.
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the scale of COMEX gold price management stands out when we take a look at the 2020 800,000 lot open interest highs.
• 30:07
  SPEAKER_01: Now, when annualized by the number of trading days, think about this.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_01: The scope of this peak synthetic price dilution represented three times of all of the 220,000 tons of gold ever mined.
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_01: And while all of this captive, the all of the captive ETF funds who want gold exposure but are not mandated to trade physical have subsequently exited the COMIX, even as of this week's historic 326,612 open interest lows, that still represents an unallocated derivative position of over a thousand leverage tons, traded multiple times a day and annualized, this leverage synthetic supply is still 1.25 times larger than all the gold ever mined.
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_01: However, as each$41,000 is borrowed by each trader from the CME Pit Manager's book, and as in any interlinked casino operation, they pos these the house positions itself on the opposite side of each naked long or short trade.
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_01: So in aggregate, the house knows exactly the pain points for collusively ringing the register on speculators by simply raising or lowering the borrowing cost to the pivot point of their choosing.
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_01: So obviously, if you raise the borrowing cost for something and you're long, then it forces you to sell some of your positions.
• 31:46
  SPEAKER_01: So with a little stealthy bid pulling, you can that's how you create um air pockets.
• 31:53
  SPEAKER_01: Now, while the exit of global facing open interest has depleted the scope of this COMEC siloed 60-year-right game, currently, again at historic all-time lows, the dwindling remaining 91% leveraged open interest sits in the hands of these siloed momentum traders who aggressively control over 80% of all gold, silver, and oil traded on the futures market.
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_01: Now, one only has to look at the last three months of bearishly correlated war uncertainty.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_01: And while risk assets continued uh unfazed to rush to have raced to fresh all-time highs, it's it's pretty clear.
• 32:38
  SPEAKER_01: The evidence of this is absolutely pretty clear.
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_01: Now, additionally, and skirting the CME's regulated and reported 91 to 1 position concentration and leverage limits, unrecorded predatory comics options traders, such as Jane Street, who've been caught doing this, and others, they write very large options positions that force the CME LBMA market makers to take the long or short side.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_01: Now, while these related algos suddenly then pull the rug on unsuspecting COMEX traders, this leverage can temporarily exceed over 150%, in turn, creating upside or downside air pockets, while these hidden options actors appear to stay within regulated position limits, where they then ring the register on regulated futures positions, and they, of course, in this process stay off the radar.
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_01: However, while this position concentration game was once solely in the hands of officials and insiders, it's now being copied by non-cartel members.
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_01: But that is serving to fast track the COMEX's demise.
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_01: Because whereas the officials try to keep it within a band, these guys don't care at all, creating massive up-down, upside and downside spikes, which is driving the driving the uh real asset traders out of the market.
• 34:24
  SPEAKER_01: They just don't want to be involved in that kind of uh volatility.
• 34:30
  SPEAKER_01: Um and and again, they were seeing this into even into all-time open interest levels.
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_01: Now, all the real money that is the central banks, the sovereigns, institutional hedgers, and traders have migrated to where they can operate inside a siloed, true supply-demand, high-quality liquid asset physical environment, where they can reliably collateralize their positions without being rinsed.
• 35:00
  SPEAKER_01: Now, to illustrate just how underpriced local London spot is versus the liberal Shanghai spot, I'm talking about Monday, I mean this week, the Monday's game PM fix, plus the London PM fix, which again into war-driven bearish headwinds, we evidence a$55 higher Shanghai spot price at the London fix moment.
• 35:27
  SPEAKER_01: Now, while this very large arbitrage premium quickly settled back to around$13 after the fix, what it does is illustrate the CMA LBMA gold is in the in central bank and sovereign delivery crosshairs.
• 35:42
  SPEAKER_01: It's being targeted.
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_01: Now, these plus or minus five tons a day of outflies, uh of outflows, they fly under the radar of this 600 to 800 tons derivative gold that actually influences, there is influences the daily fixes.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_01: But as the paper to physical leverage lines cross, it ultimately determines the pivotal turning point.
• 36:11
  SPEAKER_01: And hidden by a massive headline grabbing leverage goals sell-off, under the radar, a net of unreported PBOC Russian and Saudi monetary gold demand, we've evidence a steady, sequential, daily three to five tons of unleveraged, underpriced T plus one and SFR compliant uh London fixed gold flowing into China.
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, the commercials who are exposed to this are also taking the long side every single day.
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_01: And in aggregate, we've reached the inflection point where the momentums controlling 80% of all the remaining COMEX open interest are experiencing the first layer of naked bubble short positioning, being called in by the house, exposed to a large aggregation of accrued delivery obligations.
• 37:07
  SPEAKER_01: All the evidence, from massive SGE premiums to a degradation of bearish historical correlations, it evidences the commercials exposed to these delivery obligations have all been taken alongside of these wrong at both ends momentums.
• 37:25
  SPEAKER_01: Now, this chart affirms what we've been tracking, which is the weak hands sold the correction and the strong hands kept buying.
• 37:34
  SPEAKER_01: What this gold spec chart washout doesn't show is the addition of momentum-driven shorts yet to cover.
• 37:44
  SPEAKER_01: Also, the perfect hammer candle captured on the 200-day moving average.
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_01: This Financial Times article affirms that gold has overtaken US treasuries as the largest reserve asset held by central banks.
• 38:01
  SPEAKER_01: It reflects both heavy official sector buying and a strong rise in the gold price.
• 38:05
  SPEAKER_01: Now, this trend accelerated uh in 2022 after the US uh froze uh Russia's dollar reserves uh following the invasion of Ukraine, uh, and it picked up significantly after Basel III was implied, uh sorry in imposed in 2023.
• 38:23
  SPEAKER_01: And now the ECP is reporting currently uh geopolitical tensions are continuing to drive strong demand for physical gold.
• 38:32
  SPEAKER_01: And as you can see, these charts, what we're seeing is the what we don't see in these charts is the unleveraged physical buying is yet to run over this unbacked 100 to 1, the 100 to 1 leverage sellers of interest.
• 38:47
  SPEAKER_01: Central banks officially hold more than 36,000 tons of gold, which is within 2,000 tons of the 38,000 tons held during the Bretton Woods era, where Nixon stepped in to block central banks from cashing in their dollars for gold.
• 39:05
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, this report does not account for unreported monetary gold accumulations, but even taken at face value, gold has overtaken US treasuries as the largest reserve asset held by central banks, reflecting both heavy official sector buying and a strong rise in the gold price.
• 39:28
  SPEAKER_01: Now, while the Yuan is still a national currency with capital controls, underlying this following decades of unreported monetary gold inflows, Beijing has accrued a minimum themselves of 45,000 tons.
• 39:42
  SPEAKER_01: We think that's an absolute minimum.
• 39:44
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and that's off the radar, physical gold, which are salted in the state-held banks.
• 39:49
  SPEAKER_01: And then, of course, you've got the 30,000 odd tons of accessible uh citizens-held gold, which in aggregate stealthy is providing the PP PBOC an increasingly liquid gold bridge asset that is being collateralized.
• 40:06
  SPEAKER_01: Hence, we see all of the there's enough liquidity now to actually accommodate all of the real traders that we talked about.
• 40:15
  SPEAKER_01: And as this process rolls out, China's SIPS uh messaging system facilitates a gold bridge into the global facing 100% physically settled SGE gold corridor where such collateralization arbitrates.
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_01: Now, as all of this um off the radar, I mean it is all off the radar, um, but it's quilling a 100% naked short uh CME LBMA um leverage blowback, a massive one.
• 40:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, pick your own higher price.
• 40:49
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it's impossible to accurately assess.
• 40:52
  SPEAKER_01: But if you divide the total amount of US Treasury debt with the 8,100 tons of treasury gold, it would require$150,000 per ounce.
• 41:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh well, obviously, to front-run such an implausible scenario because it would bankrupt uh the Fed, the Fed will be forced to revalue gold sooner.
• 41:14
  SPEAKER_01: Likely it would suit them, probably around plus or minus$25,000, after which the Fed will join with every other central bank and want a strong, stable, stable gold price.
• 41:28
  SPEAKER_01: Now, but do note when you look at the Bart Chilton interview, um, we were he asked me about the gold price at that time, 2018.
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and I said, Well, I th I thought the gold price would rise when it I thought said it would rise.
• 41:46
  SPEAKER_01: And and if I said if I but if I'd said it was 1500 bucks, but if I'd said five thousand dollars, it would have seemed wild.
• 41:55
  SPEAKER_01: People would have thought that I'd taken the wrong drug or something.
• 42:00
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and it was because that was three times, three and a half times where the price was in 2018.
• 42:08
  SPEAKER_01: Now, but if we take a three and a half times higher price from the 5,200 current fair value, that's 18,200 per ounce.
• 42:20
  SPEAKER_01: Now, one step at a time here, but there has never been history been a better time to hedge the complete collapse of the Fiat system.
• 42:30
  SPEAKER_01: This is realistic.
• 42:32
  SPEAKER_00: Hey Andrew, that's amazing.
• 42:34
  SPEAKER_00: And uh the second most asked question last week, of course, is what are you seeing uh in silver with all this volatility?
• 42:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, I knew that was coming.
• 42:44
  SPEAKER_01: While Western trader uh traded silver is not a first-tier high-quality liquid asset, everything else we've looked at also applies to silver, especially with the moving averages.
• 42:54
  SPEAKER_01: And um, but notably from a 200-day moving average bull bear pivot perspective, silver is significantly outperforming gold.
• 43:03
  SPEAKER_01: And despite these same actors' best efforts, there's simply no specs left to reach the rising 200-day moving average, which hasn't been touched in over two years.
• 43:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yet it's rising rapidly.
• 43:16
  SPEAKER_01: And it's every sell-off is bounced well above its war-driven lows.
• 43:21
  SPEAKER_01: Silver is a beach ball coiled for a massive physically driven rally, leading gold higher.
• 43:28
  SPEAKER_01: Also, to illustrate just how thin conditions were on Monday, that's just two days ago, a flash tiny silver futures, 807 lots, just a tiny 807 lots.
• 43:42
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we see thousands of them trading in a minute, but a single tiny 807 lot exchange spiked, spiked silver, uh,$2.06 lower.
• 43:55
  SPEAKER_01: That's$10,300 per contract lower.
• 44:00
  SPEAKER_01: From 75565 to 73505, but immediately snapped back up to 75, chopping out, and then made a new Monday intraday high at 76575.
• 44:13
  SPEAKER_01: Now, I'm I'm just bringing attention to this because is it any wonder why all the real money hedgers, refiners, central banks, and institutional traders have bailed from the CME LBMA's broken market, other than to raid and lock in COMEC Silver for their own delivery?
• 44:32
  SPEAKER_01: I think what's missed by the myoplically focused Western analyst is the moment silver lands in the 100% physically backed Asian-facing free trade zone SGE silver exchange, it essentially can be treated as a high-quality liquid asset that can institutionally be collateralized.
• 44:52
  SPEAKER_01: And this identifies silver as massively underpriced.
• 44:56
  SPEAKER_01: This is a huge, huge gap to fill on the upside.
• 45:00
  SPEAKER_01: And this return to save haven gold, silver, and full spectrum of other Halo hard assets is going to be a major factor driving the price of paper settle gold and silver to reflect a more equitable physically derived market price that is priced one-to-one gold in gold convertible yuan, which is then immediately convertible to gold.
• 45:24
  SPEAKER_01: It really truly reflects the supply and demand a fundamental price that is grossly undervalued right now.
• 45:31
  SPEAKER_01: And while war-driven by this flip-flop volatility, we looked at this last and it's driving the short-term highly leveraged action.
• 45:39
  SPEAKER_01: Look at it today, spiking down, spiking up.
• 45:42
  SPEAKER_01: It is under these synthetic drivers, we are evidencing the largest transfer of physical gold and silver ever recorded.
• 45:52
  SPEAKER_01: Central banks and sovereigns are front-running a gold versus real asset reset.
• 45:57
  SPEAKER_01: And it will be silver that leads the way higher.
• 45:59
  SPEAKER_01: And as we affirmed last week, no one I know has sold a single ounce of physical gold or silver.
• 46:07
  SPEAKER_01: And again, my message is this the same as last week is you know, get ready for a beach ball uh decoupling of paper to physical markets.
• 46:18
  SPEAKER_01: There's no long speculators left to rinse.
• 46:22
  SPEAKER_01: And this reveals a bubble short coiled market ready to explode.
• 46:26
  SPEAKER_01: So, really, that leaves the only question: how much physical gold or silver do you own right now?
• 46:32
  SPEAKER_00: All right, that wraps up another episode of Live from the Vault, brought to you by Kinesis Money.
• 46:37
  SPEAKER_00: And a big thank you to Andrew Maguire for sharing his deep market knowledge and also to you for tuning in and being a part of this growing global community here.
• 46:47
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• 46:55
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• 47:02
  SPEAKER_00: Not now, but right now, hit that like button and share this episode with someone who really needs to hear it.
• 47:07
  SPEAKER_00: And get your questions into Andrew McGuire using the link below, and your question may well be selected for the next episode of Live from the Vault.
• 47:15
  SPEAKER_00: And with that, we'll be back next week with more truth that you just won't find on the mainstream media.
• 47:21
  SPEAKER_00: And until then, bye physical.
• 47:23
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure it's back to one to one, and we'll see you right here next week on Live from the Vault.
• 47:28
  SPEAKER_00: Bye for now.