Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 12

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The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 12 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BET
0:12
Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network,
0:15
Speaker 1: live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad
0:18
Speaker 1: Milman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday Night episode.
0:22
Speaker 1: We will review the faves five picks we put into
0:26
Speaker 1: the contest, dissect why we left some of them out,
0:31
Speaker 1: preview the early lines for week thirteen, Man thirteenteen. I'm
0:37
Speaker 1: joined as always by my co host, my companion, my Campadre,
0:41
Speaker 1: my BFF Professional Better, Simon Hunter Ella Simon.
0:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, what a day, crazy day of football.
0:48
Speaker 1: Wacky, wild head spinning, heart attack and heart attack inducing,
0:52
Speaker 1: stomach churning slates of early games and somehow from the
0:58
Speaker 1: contest point of view, were not really impacted by any
1:03
Speaker 1: of them. In fact, for the second week in a row,
1:08
Speaker 1: we only played two of the four games that were
1:13
Speaker 1: typically obvious plays for us that we tend to love.
1:17
Speaker 1: Three of those games, one only loss was the one
1:22
Speaker 1: that we played, just like Buffalo last week. The only
1:26
Speaker 1: loss was the one that we played, and when I
1:28
Speaker 1: say Buffalo, I mean Kansas City losing to Buffalo. We
1:33
Speaker 1: did find a teeny, teeny tiny bit of redemption with
1:37
Speaker 1: one of our favorite teams to bet. We will get
1:41
Speaker 1: to all of that and more. Cliffhanger right there, simon.
1:46
Speaker 1: Catch every episode of the Favorites on YouTube. For those
1:49
Speaker 1: who joined on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like,
1:51
Speaker 1: subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page as a reminder.
1:54
Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
1:57
Speaker 1: and now new Bet three six five. Customers one hundred
2:00
Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars,
2:03
Speaker 1: sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place
2:06
Speaker 1: a bet for five dollars, get one hundred and fifty
2:09
Speaker 1: in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
2:12
Speaker 1: player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never
2:16
Speaker 1: ordinary at Bet three six five. Must be twenty one
2:19
Speaker 1: or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
2:24
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
2:27
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
2:31
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned
2:34
Speaker 1: restrictions apply we are two and two heading into the
2:39
Speaker 1: Sunday night game. We are on the Rams at plus
2:42
Speaker 1: two and a half. This is a strictly Simon bet.
2:47
Speaker 1: Last week, the Browns were a strictly Chad bet. It
2:53
Speaker 1: did not work. This week, we are on a strictly
2:56
Speaker 1: Simon bet. I hope it works. I'd like to be
3:01
Speaker 1: three and two. I'm willing to lose my Eagles bet
3:05
Speaker 1: that has actual dollars on it because I know how
3:08
Speaker 1: much you want the Rams and I'd like us to
3:10
Speaker 1: be three and two this week.
3:12
Speaker 2: You're literally a crazy person.
3:13
Speaker 3: I love that every time you mentioned this, you're like
3:14
Speaker 3: it's because of the Browns last week. No, I would
3:16
Speaker 3: have made this bet before stin regardless of the Browns
3:19
Speaker 3: covered last week or if they didn't.
3:21
Speaker 2: I loved at your reference point. But uh yeah, we
3:25
Speaker 2: need it.
3:25
Speaker 3: We need it for a winning week. And you know
3:28
Speaker 3: we talked this morning. I was open to take it
3:31
Speaker 3: out just because it's a bad number. Like we said,
3:33
Speaker 3: there's threes out there. I'd feel more confident if we
3:35
Speaker 3: had a three three and a half, but luckily we
3:38
Speaker 3: didn't because I think we talked about either putting the
3:40
Speaker 3: Patriots or the Bears in there, which obviously the Bears
3:43
Speaker 3: would have been epic for us, but Patriots woo. That
3:47
Speaker 3: would have been painful if we had put that one in.
3:50
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm happy with two and two right now.
3:52
Speaker 3: I don't know about you.
3:53
Speaker 1: I feel great about two and two, and I feel
3:55
Speaker 1: great especially because I think we got a little bit lucky.
4:00
Speaker 1: And we'll talk about it. Let's talk about the game.
4:02
Speaker 1: We loved the most. One of the big dogs in
4:04
Speaker 1: the early slate that just could not get it done.
4:08
Speaker 1: We had Indianapolis plus seven and a half against Detroit
4:13
Speaker 1: in Indie and like we were all over it. We
4:16
Speaker 1: loved it. We've been super impressed with stich In. We've
4:20
Speaker 1: been super impressed with the Colts. We like their running game.
4:24
Speaker 1: We thought this could be not a letdown spot because
4:27
Speaker 1: we've said it this all year. Physical travels and the
4:30
Speaker 1: Lions are a very physical team. But we liked a
4:33
Speaker 1: little bit of the matchup, so we thought we were
4:35
Speaker 1: getting a good number, good matchup, elite unit on the
4:39
Speaker 1: right side of the ball for the Colts. And like
4:42
Speaker 1: the first half, it was so tantalizing. I don't know
4:47
Speaker 1: how you felt about it, but the Colts got field
4:52
Speaker 1: goals the lines got touchdowns, and you just felt like
4:58
Speaker 1: they need they need, they need one or play one
5:01
Speaker 1: more play to put themselves in a position to be
5:03
Speaker 1: able to be competitive in this game.
5:05
Speaker 2: It felt like what you just said that that to
5:07
Speaker 2: me is the basicial.
5:08
Speaker 3: But one team could run the ball today and Detroit
5:10
Speaker 3: and one team could not run the ball. And Jonathan
5:11
Speaker 3: Taylor he just did not show up today. He did
5:14
Speaker 3: nothing for us. And I'll be honest, when they kicked
5:17
Speaker 3: that field goal to start the game, I instantly regretted
5:20
Speaker 3: making one.
5:20
Speaker 2: Of my biggest bets of the day.
5:21
Speaker 3: I don't know about you, but I was like, why
5:23
Speaker 3: is this a huge bet for me today? Because I
5:26
Speaker 3: load it up on I love the spot, love the number,
5:29
Speaker 3: and you know, like we keep saying Detroit breaks a
5:31
Speaker 3: lot of these rules, and I keep going against them
5:34
Speaker 3: a certain spots and it's like what am I doing? Like,
5:37
Speaker 3: you can't you can't kick field goals against Detroit, especially
5:40
Speaker 3: when you're in the red zone, you know, a couple
5:43
Speaker 3: of yards out.
5:43
Speaker 2: It's just Detroit's gonna get theirs.
5:46
Speaker 3: And their defense played well, like Detroit put up what
5:48
Speaker 3: twenty four points? Yeah, even though it sounds like a
5:51
Speaker 3: lot of points. That's that's pretty good when you go
5:53
Speaker 3: up against this juggern Ivan offense that Detroit has, and
5:56
Speaker 3: uh yeah, their run game is just something special on
5:59
Speaker 3: their defense show, but they're just a complete team right now.
6:02
Speaker 3: Detroit with the Colts, like you said, it was competitive.
6:05
Speaker 3: Game was fourteen six. You know, a couple things kind
6:08
Speaker 3: of broke our away and that would have been a
6:09
Speaker 3: much closer half, But that second half it was just
6:12
Speaker 3: all Detroit. They made the right adjustments. Richardson could not
6:16
Speaker 3: do a single thing in that second half. At one point,
6:18
Speaker 3: I think it was nine for twenty four passing. So yeah,
6:22
Speaker 3: rolled all the good we saw in the Jets game
6:24
Speaker 3: kind of went out the window. He just was not
6:26
Speaker 3: connecting with his guys day the guys open too, which
6:28
Speaker 3: was brutal but bad read bad bet and we we
6:34
Speaker 3: haven't learned our lesson here with this Detroit team. But
6:37
Speaker 3: maybe we'll see this upcoming week. I think I'll be
6:39
Speaker 3: able to get you on Detroit side.
6:40
Speaker 1: It's going to make a trick. I've already flagged that
6:43
Speaker 1: game for the week thirteen lines we're looking at, and
6:48
Speaker 1: you know, we'll obviously talk about it a lot on
6:50
Speaker 1: the favorites Anthony Richardson. You just mentioned how badly he played,
6:55
Speaker 1: completed just thirty nine percent of his passes. Yeah, the
6:58
Speaker 1: Lions two good, good, too, physical, too well coached right.
7:04
Speaker 1: Five penalties for the Lions, ten for the Colts. Lions
7:09
Speaker 1: three for four in the red zone, Colts zero for two.
7:14
Speaker 1: A boring game, poorly played, completely disappointing. That's that's how
7:20
Speaker 1: I look at this game.
7:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, like I said, though he had opportunities, you were
7:23
Speaker 3: right though, he was just an accurate It's like, you know,
7:26
Speaker 3: I mean, we know what you're doing when we bet him,
7:29
Speaker 3: but it's just brittal because he was running the ball
7:32
Speaker 3: so well. Start that game and it's like, okay, we're
7:34
Speaker 3: moving the ball here against Detroit, and then he just
7:36
Speaker 3: completely folded on himself. I don't know whatever happened that
7:39
Speaker 3: second half. He just was not the same guy as
7:41
Speaker 3: he was in the first half. They just had no
7:43
Speaker 3: rhythm to that offense. So yeah, like I said, that
7:46
Speaker 3: just Detroit right now, they're just a complete team, and
7:49
Speaker 3: they're they're they're not just beating these teams like they're
7:52
Speaker 3: destroying them.
7:52
Speaker 2: Like that was another double digit win. This is crazy.
7:55
Speaker 1: They're destroying them, and I feel like they're mentally breaking
7:58
Speaker 1: them sometimes. Yeah, Like think look back a few weeks
8:02
Speaker 1: ago they played the Vikings, the Vikings were killing them.
8:05
Speaker 1: The Lions come back. Sam Darnold for the next three
8:08
Speaker 1: or four weeks was a different player, and like they
8:12
Speaker 1: just it's like they're so freaking physical, they're so hard
8:16
Speaker 1: to play. I think it really wears you down. And
8:19
Speaker 1: we saw that. We saw that with the Colts tam.
8:21
Speaker 2: And they know exactly where they are.
8:22
Speaker 3: They're like, they're running it on thirty eight and it's
8:24
Speaker 3: a smart read, like you know golf. He's just got
8:28
Speaker 3: the confidence of the line that he'll he'll adjust, he'll
8:30
Speaker 3: see be like, all right, they're dropping back on thirty eight.
8:32
Speaker 2: I'll just run it here.
8:33
Speaker 3: And they're picking up you know, ten yards in that
8:35
Speaker 3: carry like and that one two punch of Gibbs Montgomery. Man,
8:38
Speaker 3: it's it's lethal right now. So they're just so good.
8:41
Speaker 3: If you're a fan of their team, obviously you're hoping
8:43
Speaker 3: they carry into the playoffs because right now, I mean
8:45
Speaker 3: for this last month, month and a half, they've just
8:47
Speaker 3: been totally like, by far, the best team in football.
8:50
Speaker 2: They're just so complete right.
8:51
Speaker 1: Now, quick reminder are free free favorites. Podcast watch party
8:57
Speaker 1: is just weeks away. It's time to are at VP, folks. Thursday,
9:02
Speaker 1: December twelfth, The Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia, Simon
9:09
Speaker 1: Hunter's hometown. We're gonna do drinks, free drinks, a live
9:13
Speaker 1: Q and A with me and Simon. Matt Mitchell is
9:15
Speaker 1: going to be there too. Starts at six, ends at eight.
9:18
Speaker 1: We're gonna hang out for Thursday Night football, the Rams
9:22
Speaker 1: and the Niners to URSVP. Check out the link in
9:26
Speaker 1: the podcast description page or on the YouTube episode description.
9:31
Speaker 1: Simon and I will tweet it out as well. Space
9:35
Speaker 1: is limited, RSVPs are pouring in. Don't delay, please get
9:41
Speaker 1: it done.
9:42
Speaker 2: We found something special, man. I felt It's like we're
9:44
Speaker 2: in here together. Nobody's coming out of that circle. Man.
9:48
Speaker 2: That's exactly where you want to be right now.
9:50
Speaker 1: All right, gether game? Kansas City at Carolina. We had
9:54
Speaker 1: Carolina plus ten and a half. He ended up pretty
9:58
Speaker 1: glorious and not very suspensul It ended up looking exactly right,
10:04
Speaker 1: and us doing the right thing by not being afraid
10:08
Speaker 1: of what we've seen on the field and what the
10:10
Speaker 1: situation told us and what the trends told us and
10:14
Speaker 1: not being afraid that we were going to make our
10:16
Speaker 1: listeners and our viewers truly hate us for betting on
10:19
Speaker 1: the Panthers. The Panthers finally, finally, finally looking like the
10:27
Speaker 1: team we thought they would be to start the year right,
10:30
Speaker 1: they were just good enough and at time's fantastic and
10:36
Speaker 1: they found their way and Bryce Young did the right things.
10:41
Speaker 1: There was a moment, though, I don't know if you
10:43
Speaker 1: feel the same way, where I was like, oh fudge,
10:49
Speaker 1: did you ever feel that way?
10:51
Speaker 2: Yeah?
10:51
Speaker 3: I would say the opening touchdown when the guy's wide open,
10:53
Speaker 3: Noah Gray, and it's like mahomes thrown to wide open guys.
10:57
Speaker 3: This is not good for me and Chad and then
10:59
Speaker 3: we had what straight field goals by Carolina, So yeah,
11:02
Speaker 3: it's this is life betting these bad teams. It just
11:06
Speaker 3: makes you put your hair out. All the different scenaries
11:07
Speaker 3: we were right, like, we trusted the number.
11:10
Speaker 2: When it came down to it.
11:12
Speaker 3: I was kicking myself that we didn't taken the money
11:13
Speaker 3: line around Robin because that was honestly where I wanted
11:15
Speaker 3: to put them, but I didn't because I just knew
11:17
Speaker 3: the fans were so sick of us in our Carolina Love.
11:20
Speaker 3: That's like, all right, just if we can get them
11:21
Speaker 3: just to take ten and a half, that would be
11:23
Speaker 3: a celebration. And yeah, luckily good number. Good bet.
11:29
Speaker 2: We always talked about Mahomes.
11:31
Speaker 3: Well, I can't even ballame them for this one, right,
11:33
Speaker 3: that was really the defense of the Chiefs.
11:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, they were the ones that really didn't show up
11:36
Speaker 2: in this game.
11:37
Speaker 3: So that was probably the most shocking part of it,
11:39
Speaker 3: was that me and you joked before it's like Ken
11:42
Speaker 3: Ken Brayshaw, get us that twenty points threshold because we
11:44
Speaker 3: saw that stat by Evan, which is just crazy.
11:47
Speaker 2: Basically, if the team doesn't get to twenty points, then
11:51
Speaker 2: mahomes the favorite. He's always thirteen to er. Yeah, so.
11:57
Speaker 3: You know, we got to it and it's this is
12:01
Speaker 3: what we thought this Panthers team would be a fun
12:03
Speaker 3: team on offense. I could spread teams out, run the
12:06
Speaker 3: ball well and then make teams kind of suck in
12:08
Speaker 3: and when they do Bryce Bryce Young is very accurate, right,
12:11
Speaker 3: He's really good on those first second reads. This year
12:14
Speaker 3: with him was just he has a little bit of pressure.
12:16
Speaker 2: He just kept folding.
12:17
Speaker 3: He's not athletic enough to run outside the pockets.
12:20
Speaker 1: So he's not doing that now. Like in this game,
12:23
Speaker 1: he was pressured constantly, he was rolling out constantly, he
12:26
Speaker 1: was throwing out his back foot, and he was dropping
12:29
Speaker 1: dimes to people like all the way down the field
12:33
Speaker 1: who are running out routes towards the sideline and he's
12:37
Speaker 1: got someone literally in his face holding on to him.
12:41
Speaker 1: And he hit some great throws today.
12:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, he got his.
12:44
Speaker 3: Confidence back, right, And that's something we talked about where
12:46
Speaker 3: like he's not as bad as he looked.
12:49
Speaker 2: We just don't know if he's a starter in this league.
12:51
Speaker 2: But we talk all the time.
12:52
Speaker 3: You need two to three years really to evaluate these quarterbacks.
12:55
Speaker 3: That's what's so tough about this where it's like, did
12:58
Speaker 3: we want to bury him because we just don't think
12:59
Speaker 3: he has the body. He doesn't have the you know what,
13:02
Speaker 3: we expect the quarterback to be a big six to
13:04
Speaker 3: five guy. Yeah, but at the same time, you can
13:06
Speaker 3: see why he was a top pick, right, Like you
13:08
Speaker 3: just said, he was making plays that I don't know
13:11
Speaker 3: about you about Those were a couple of times I
13:13
Speaker 3: was like freaking out. It's like this kid is just
13:14
Speaker 3: lofting off his back foot. Yeah, like you said, it
13:16
Speaker 3: was dropping right, into the guy's buckets. So yeah, great,
13:20
Speaker 3: great game, great bet, And you know the ten and
13:23
Speaker 3: a half. That was a little scary in the very
13:26
Speaker 3: beginning chat, but at the end he.
13:27
Speaker 2: Never it was never really in debt.
13:29
Speaker 1: There was a moment, that's what I want to know
13:30
Speaker 1: if you were thinking the same thing. So there was
13:33
Speaker 1: a moment where the leverage point was eleven, right, it
13:40
Speaker 1: was twenty seven sixteen right, And it was going back
13:44
Speaker 1: and forth on that and if it was going to
13:46
Speaker 1: be field goal, field goal, field goal, trading field goals
13:50
Speaker 1: with the Panthers hoping they might be able to get
13:53
Speaker 1: to the end zone and cut it a little bit
13:54
Speaker 1: closer as it gets later, it was going to land
13:57
Speaker 1: on a bad number for us. We had bet I
14:00
Speaker 1: had bet the eleven. I don't know if you bet
14:01
Speaker 1: the eleven and a half.
14:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I bet some time and a half,
14:05
Speaker 2: super right. My main bets were eleven eleven and.
14:07
Speaker 1: A half, right. So it got tricky there at the
14:10
Speaker 1: end because in the contest we had to take this
14:16
Speaker 1: the Niners out of the contest when Brock Purdy was
14:20
Speaker 1: announced as not playing, and we put the Packers in
14:23
Speaker 1: at three and a half, and we'll get to.
14:25
Speaker 3: Well, it was the day before. We just did it
14:27
Speaker 3: just in case because it had been a release yet
14:29
Speaker 3: you right.
14:30
Speaker 1: Right, But what happened was in that window between us
14:33
Speaker 1: choosing the Niners, we had also chosen the Panthers at
14:36
Speaker 1: eleven and a half lost, so we lost the eleven
14:40
Speaker 1: and a half and now we had ten and a half.
14:42
Speaker 1: So during the game, I'm like, are you freaking kidding
14:45
Speaker 1: me that we're going to lose the Colts and we're
14:47
Speaker 1: going to lose the Panthers who we were on the
14:50
Speaker 1: whole time and we finally got right and we're going
14:52
Speaker 1: to lose it by half a point and then Marakulo.
14:55
Speaker 3: This year has been weird, Chad, The the two and
14:58
Speaker 3: the three have only really mattered to this year.
15:00
Speaker 2: Do you agree?
15:01
Speaker 3: It feels like all of our bets. The only time
15:03
Speaker 3: that's really burned us is if it's two or three.
15:05
Speaker 3: Every other game is either a blowout or the dog wins. Outright,
15:09
Speaker 3: it's been very bizarre this year where the numbers really
15:11
Speaker 3: have not mattered. Like we joked today, it was like
15:14
Speaker 3: Arizona was half a point. I was like, who cares,
15:16
Speaker 3: there's this ain't this ain't gonna land on half, you know,
15:19
Speaker 3: so it was just it's been weird like this this year.
15:23
Speaker 2: It's just the two and the three have been such.
15:25
Speaker 3: Key numbers, and me and you talk about that where
15:27
Speaker 3: it's like we are not you know, we freak out
15:33
Speaker 3: about the numbers so much because me and you've done
15:34
Speaker 3: this long enough. We've been burned by that hook on
15:36
Speaker 3: weird numbers before. But in actuality it just never I
15:40
Speaker 3: mean this year especially, it just not has not happened
15:42
Speaker 3: to us. Our numbers have not mattered.
15:44
Speaker 1: Fascinating game. The Panthers were nine of thirteen on third
15:48
Speaker 1: and fourth down conversions combined. Right Bryce Young had three
15:54
Speaker 1: two great third down completions and really critical moments they
15:59
Speaker 1: own time of the session. The problem was they just
16:01
Speaker 1: couldn't stop Patrick Mahomes in the first half. The Chiefs
16:04
Speaker 1: have fifteen first outs and it was only in the
16:07
Speaker 1: second half when the Chiefs do what they always do,
16:09
Speaker 1: they decided to get a little more conservative that the
16:12
Speaker 1: Panthers defense finally found some success in holding them a
16:17
Speaker 1: little bit. But then the Chiefs couldn't stop the Panthers,
16:20
Speaker 1: and so the question becomes like are these Panthers Are
16:27
Speaker 1: these Panthers a team? That we are starting to believe in.
16:30
Speaker 1: Will the market catch up. They've got a big number
16:33
Speaker 1: against division arrival this upcoming week. We're going to talk
16:37
Speaker 1: about it on the show later. I don't know if
16:39
Speaker 1: you flagged it. I certainly flagged it, but it definitely
16:42
Speaker 1: was a game that stood out to me. So I
16:45
Speaker 1: don't know if there's like an adjustment yet, if this
16:48
Speaker 1: will make the market change a little bit. Obviously we
16:51
Speaker 1: were ahead of it. We've liked what they've done the
16:53
Speaker 1: past couple of weeks. Plus they had to buy it
16:55
Speaker 1: was a It was a big sort of action bet today.
16:58
Speaker 1: People were on the Panthers raybound timeked about it and
17:00
Speaker 1: convinced me. I don't know if you're looking at the
17:02
Speaker 1: Panthers and you're like, so I have to reevaluate.
17:05
Speaker 2: Them, Well, we'll see.
17:07
Speaker 3: I mean I have to keep a justing. I told you,
17:09
Speaker 3: like I had them eight and a half. The number
17:11
Speaker 3: are sitting on eight until that final touchdown, right, So
17:14
Speaker 3: it's like fell like got I was, Okay, this is
17:16
Speaker 3: where this game should be. So we'll see this line
17:18
Speaker 3: this upcoming week. Maybe the books will finally catch up
17:20
Speaker 3: to it, but unlikely, right, because I think you're talking
17:23
Speaker 3: about their matchup where it's like the public is going
17:25
Speaker 3: to be kind of fading them once again.
17:26
Speaker 2: I feel like this upcoming week, the.
17:29
Speaker 1: Books obviously dominated the Giants and Baker just bald. I
17:34
Speaker 1: don't know if did you watch any of that game?
17:35
Speaker 2: Yeah?
17:36
Speaker 1: I love watching him play.
17:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, him throwing the block down field, all of it.
17:41
Speaker 2: He's just hilarious.
17:42
Speaker 1: He gives no fox like that is why his teammates
17:45
Speaker 1: love him so much. He is amazing to watch. And
17:50
Speaker 1: that Giants team, they just they just quit San Francisco
17:56
Speaker 1: at Green Bay. So this was like the pivot game,
17:58
Speaker 1: the leverage game for us because we heard brock Purty
18:02
Speaker 1: was going to be out, all those rumors were happening.
18:03
Speaker 1: We wanted to get them out of the contest. We
18:06
Speaker 1: immediately flipped a Green Bay. We had Green Bay three
18:09
Speaker 1: and a half, and that was the game that made
18:13
Speaker 1: us take the Panthers at ten and a half. I got, like,
18:17
Speaker 1: I don't think we loved the Packers at three and
18:21
Speaker 1: a half? Did we?
18:23
Speaker 2: I did?
18:23
Speaker 3: I get why you didn't trust it though, because we
18:25
Speaker 3: just this isn't the type of spot we bet. We
18:28
Speaker 3: like bet in the backups with a big number, So
18:30
Speaker 3: like I get to you was a little foreign, but
18:33
Speaker 3: I don't know if it was Tennessee you said, whoever
18:35
Speaker 3: it was in our texting to put them in. I'm like,
18:36
Speaker 3: can we just for ones, take the fucking easy bet
18:39
Speaker 3: and just take green Bay here? And it was just
18:41
Speaker 3: like I was like, Chad, if someone was like, yeah,
18:44
Speaker 3: you can climb Mount ever so without without oxygen or
18:46
Speaker 3: with oxygen, Chad goes, let's do without oxygen. Huh, it'd
18:49
Speaker 3: be better without oxygen. So yeah, thank god we put
18:52
Speaker 3: green Bay in it. Just even up to six and
18:55
Speaker 3: a half, I would have been like, you know what,
18:57
Speaker 3: probably can take this like it just we already out
19:00
Speaker 3: of that forty nine ers team. Then coming in they
19:01
Speaker 3: had you know, a bunch of injuries and then no Bosa,
19:05
Speaker 3: no party. It's like we talked last year there were
19:08
Speaker 3: stars and scrub team. They're a team that's very top heavy.
19:10
Speaker 3: You saw today like they're a good offense, right even
19:13
Speaker 3: when Kittle's in there, he's good, but Debo has not
19:16
Speaker 3: been making place for them like they need to. And
19:20
Speaker 3: you know, this kid came in and Alan hung in
19:22
Speaker 3: there for a little bit, but eventually you saw the
19:24
Speaker 3: ball start sailing a little bit once you took a
19:26
Speaker 3: couple of hits, and that's that's how it is. It's
19:29
Speaker 3: just hard as hell to be consistent for four quarters
19:31
Speaker 3: in the NFL, Like we joke all the time, there's
19:33
Speaker 3: what fourteen to fifteen quarterbacks you trust to be consistent
19:38
Speaker 3: in this league week to week, and he ain't gonna
19:41
Speaker 3: be one of them.
19:41
Speaker 2: So we could have got burned by it. That's what
19:43
Speaker 2: your hesitation was.
19:44
Speaker 3: But my view was just like, let's just play this
19:47
Speaker 3: number against a backup on a forty nine ers team
19:50
Speaker 3: that's just having the year from hell. And you saw
19:52
Speaker 3: it kind of accumulating that game right like they were
19:55
Speaker 3: kind of getting back into it, and then a little
19:56
Speaker 3: by little things have just kept going around from once again,
19:58
Speaker 3: Jordan Love didn't even pay great even though he already
20:00
Speaker 3: had a bad drop by Watson. You know, there was
20:03
Speaker 3: a couple of things he didn't do great. It was
20:04
Speaker 3: just a great run grain, a great run game. And
20:08
Speaker 3: then their defense for Green Bay, which I feel like
20:10
Speaker 3: this whole season, their turnovers is what's carried this team
20:13
Speaker 3: all year.
20:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, Xavier McKinny had another interception. Yeah they got I
20:18
Speaker 1: think they got really lucky. It was twenty four to ten.
20:22
Speaker 1: Jordan Love head into the fourth quarter, was nine of
20:27
Speaker 1: nineteen for one hundred and nine yards. At this point
20:30
Speaker 1: in the game, early in the fourth quarter, they had
20:32
Speaker 1: just punted, They had only had two first downs in
20:35
Speaker 1: the second half. They had scored seventeen points early basically
20:40
Speaker 1: on the strength of Josh Jacobs running over forty nine ers.
20:43
Speaker 1: They have fifteen misstackles in the early part in the
20:46
Speaker 1: first half of the game, Josh Jacobs was twelve of those,
20:50
Speaker 1: and then he left the game for Crimps, and when
20:52
Speaker 1: he came back in he dominated again. But Jordan Love
20:55
Speaker 1: was terrible and he's been terrible all season, and that,
20:59
Speaker 1: to me was my biggest concern. Was all of a sudden,
21:04
Speaker 1: the number had popped three and a half and we
21:07
Speaker 1: were on the other side of the hook, and we
21:10
Speaker 1: were betting on a bad quarterback right now, like a
21:12
Speaker 1: very inconsistent, as you say, quarterback, there's not a lot
21:15
Speaker 1: of people can count on. That was to me was
21:18
Speaker 1: the concern. I didn't have faith he'd be able to
21:20
Speaker 1: make the plays when we really needed him to, and
21:23
Speaker 1: he kind of didn't except for that one drop by Watson.
21:28
Speaker 1: That makes me think about the future obviously they're playing Thanksgiving.
21:31
Speaker 1: That's another game I flagged. They're playing in Miami, And
21:36
Speaker 1: I'm gonna want to talk about that with you, because
21:38
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, I'm concerned about Jordan Love. He's
21:41
Speaker 1: just had a bad year, just had a really bad year.
21:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think you know they talked about during
21:46
Speaker 3: the broadcast he was leading the league interceptions even though
21:48
Speaker 3: he missed multiple games this year.
21:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know.
21:52
Speaker 3: Last year the best part of Jordan Love was how
21:55
Speaker 3: you know the second half of the season, I think
21:57
Speaker 3: you only had two interceptions or something crazy like that.
21:59
Speaker 3: And it's like, Okay, this guy's throwing from multiple touchdowns
22:02
Speaker 3: a game with no interceptions.
22:04
Speaker 2: He's a stud. They paid him like one and this
22:06
Speaker 2: year you've seen it.
22:07
Speaker 3: He's regressed to the meeting, right, It's like, yeah, he's
22:10
Speaker 3: not that guy who's like Aaron Rodgers.
22:12
Speaker 2: That Aaron Rodgers was the unicorn.
22:13
Speaker 3: We've always talked about that his thirty touchdowns, thirty five
22:16
Speaker 3: touchdowns and five interceptions.
22:19
Speaker 2: It's not gonna happen again. Man.
22:20
Speaker 3: Like I was scared because I was like, oh my god,
22:22
Speaker 3: they might have got another Aaron Rodgers here because he
22:25
Speaker 3: was just so smart last year with the ball like
22:27
Speaker 3: anytime he could throw fifty to fifty balls. Last year,
22:29
Speaker 3: it felt like he put in a position where this
22:31
Speaker 3: guy would catch it or no one would.
22:33
Speaker 2: This year, a lot of his stuff's like over the middle.
22:37
Speaker 3: Just bullets like no, you know, no fades in the corner,
22:40
Speaker 3: like he's trying to like throw through guys, and he's
22:42
Speaker 3: throwing it right to defend him a couple of times.
22:44
Speaker 3: So you're right to be hesitant about him right now.
22:47
Speaker 3: I mean, I got no excuses for him. He's just
22:49
Speaker 3: been bad this year.
22:50
Speaker 1: I do wonder how much the injuries are impacting him
22:54
Speaker 1: right Like he he has lower body injuries. That impacts
22:59
Speaker 1: your mobility. I think it impacts your confidence and it
23:02
Speaker 1: probably impacts your performance in a variety of ways that
23:05
Speaker 1: you can't really sort of tangibly put your finger on.
23:11
Speaker 1: But he's clearly not the same player he was last year,
23:15
Speaker 1: and he hasn't been all year, and he's been injured
23:17
Speaker 1: all year, so he's probably playing through stuff. He might
23:20
Speaker 1: be back to his old self next year. This year,
23:24
Speaker 1: no love, Yeah, this week we have no Thursday episode
23:29
Speaker 1: or this Thanksgiving. I want everyone to have a fantastic
23:32
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving I will be packing up my mother in law's
23:35
Speaker 1: Taten Island. I hope everyone is doing something a lot
23:39
Speaker 1: more fun than that. As this tradition, we will do
23:42
Speaker 1: our Thanksgiving mega episode on Tuesday at the usual time
23:46
Speaker 1: that is one forty five pm Eastern on Tuesday. All
23:50
Speaker 1: the picks, all of our segments all on Thursday. That's
23:54
Speaker 1: big Balls, that's the money line, Underdog Round Rob and
23:58
Speaker 1: that's the boosted parlay, every pick, the box al. It's
24:02
Speaker 1: all gonna be on Tuesday so we can celebrate Turkey Day.
24:07
Speaker 1: Last game, Arizona Seattle. Did we get got? Like on this?
24:13
Speaker 1: Like it felt like they were the Cardinals were just
24:15
Speaker 1: disinterested in this whole game. Like at one point they
24:18
Speaker 1: couldn't convert on third downs six straight missed third downs,
24:22
Speaker 1: fourth and one didn't convert, got lucky with the called
24:24
Speaker 1: Seattle time out, and then the next play Kyler Murray
24:29
Speaker 1: rolling out, gonna run for it, decides to pull it
24:32
Speaker 1: back as a guy wide freaking open, little tiny tear
24:38
Speaker 1: drop pass. It's gonna be perfect sales on him. Pick six.
24:44
Speaker 1: Seattle ends up being the game. What happened here?
24:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, we got Kyler?
24:49
Speaker 3: I mean he just played awful in every aspect you
24:52
Speaker 3: just talked about, and for some reason they wouldn't commit
24:56
Speaker 3: to the run even though it was a seven to
24:57
Speaker 3: three game.
24:58
Speaker 2: Like, yeah, the whole for half and.
25:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, that pick six is kind of like the nail
25:05
Speaker 3: on the coffin because Gino didn't have it either. I mean,
25:07
Speaker 3: let's be honest, like he he had be a nice
25:10
Speaker 3: two minute drill like he always does.
25:11
Speaker 1: He didn't and he did like in the same sort
25:15
Speaker 1: of chaotic, high pressure situations where everyone is running around.
25:20
Speaker 1: Gino had multiple plays where he got out of the pocket,
25:25
Speaker 1: found the guy you know, and made the miracle play
25:29
Speaker 1: That sort of feels like the kick and the dick
25:33
Speaker 1: that we all have when we're losing these games. And
25:37
Speaker 1: the rest of the time he's just Gino and he
25:41
Speaker 1: makes stupid decisions. But it's like those two minutes are cardiac.
25:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like honestly, like you're describing him, he's great. Between
25:48
Speaker 3: the thirties. That's where Gino's great. Like you need a
25:52
Speaker 3: useless yards in the middle of the field, He'll get
25:55
Speaker 3: you those yards that end zone picky through like inexcusable.
26:00
Speaker 2: Just every week it fills with Gino. He has moments like.
26:03
Speaker 3: This, but no, it was Kyler. Kyler just totally laid
26:06
Speaker 3: an egg. I mean, I'm gonna go back and watch
26:08
Speaker 3: it all twenty two. I know for a fact, you know,
26:10
Speaker 3: a couple of different options where he just missed wide
26:12
Speaker 3: open guys in the end zone. And you know it
26:16
Speaker 3: could because maybe they get a little bit of pressure
26:17
Speaker 3: in this game where it's like he gets rattled easily,
26:21
Speaker 3: and when he has that, he just starts feeling like
26:23
Speaker 3: there's guys around him and there wasn't any sometimes like
26:25
Speaker 3: he panicked, tried to run out of the pocket too often.
26:28
Speaker 3: But the biggest issue for me is them abandoned the run.
26:30
Speaker 3: They just we know Seattle is not great against the run,
26:34
Speaker 3: and you know, they kind of just moved on from
26:37
Speaker 3: it right away early in the game, like they just
26:39
Speaker 3: it didn't work for a little bit and they were
26:41
Speaker 3: just like, all right, we'll just have Kyler throw it
26:42
Speaker 3: forty times this game, which was bizarre because like we
26:45
Speaker 3: just said, it was a close.
26:46
Speaker 2: Game all the way to the end. Uh So, yeah,
26:49
Speaker 2: bad bet bad read.
26:51
Speaker 1: He looked bored. Kyler just looked bored and disinterested. You know,
26:57
Speaker 1: we got a couple of regrets here, so that the
26:59
Speaker 1: two big dogs that we left out, the big division
27:03
Speaker 1: dogs that we left out, Titans and Cowboys. Obviously they
27:07
Speaker 1: both won today, crazy crazy games, And this was you
27:13
Speaker 1: know you said earlier we trusted the number with the Panthers, Right,
27:17
Speaker 1: we should have trusted the number with the Titans and
27:19
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. But both teams have quarterbacks that we do
27:23
Speaker 1: not trust, and unlike Bryce Young, there's been no evidence
27:27
Speaker 1: that we should trust them. Right, I'm like trying to
27:29
Speaker 1: unpack why didn't we just go with them? Like we
27:32
Speaker 1: knew that we had so many We had such a
27:33
Speaker 1: long conversation about the Titans, and like the trends worried us,
27:38
Speaker 1: but then the trends are also there to regress, you know.
27:44
Speaker 2: I mean, I think he got sacked eight times and
27:47
Speaker 2: he threw a pick six.
27:48
Speaker 1: He got sacked eight times in the first and like
27:50
Speaker 1: six times in the first half, and he threw a
27:52
Speaker 1: pick six to give the Texans the lead. And when
27:55
Speaker 1: that happened, I was like, honest to god, I was
27:59
Speaker 1: actually more upset about the games we didn't put in
28:01
Speaker 1: today than the games we lost, or were more excited
28:03
Speaker 1: about the games we won. Yeah, And I don't know
28:06
Speaker 1: if that ever happens to you, but with will Levis
28:10
Speaker 1: when they went down twenty four to twenty three after
28:13
Speaker 1: that pick six, I said to myself, I'm so glad
28:16
Speaker 1: we didn't put this in the contest because it was
28:18
Speaker 1: ripe for the Texans to run away with that game.
28:21
Speaker 3: After Yeah, I mean I felt that a little bit.
28:26
Speaker 2: The biggest one I would say was the Bears.
28:28
Speaker 3: Like we I had guys in my ear about that
28:31
Speaker 3: game on Sunday last week.
28:32
Speaker 2: We talked about it Sunday night.
28:34
Speaker 3: It stayed at three and a half literally all week
28:36
Speaker 3: until what eleven am.
28:38
Speaker 2: Yeah today, Yeah, And that's.
28:41
Speaker 3: Kind of games that make you sick because like, I
28:44
Speaker 3: bet it, obviously I know you bet, And it's like
28:45
Speaker 3: they came back a game we were dead, we were dead,
28:48
Speaker 3: they were down fourteen with whatever that was five minutes
28:51
Speaker 3: to go, yeah, and we get that back to recover.
28:53
Speaker 3: Those are the ones I'm like, damn, I wish we
28:55
Speaker 3: had that win in because that's just that's so much fun.
28:57
Speaker 3: I doubt most people listening to our show about that,
29:00
Speaker 3: just because, like most people, you know, the Brian floor
29:03
Speaker 3: Is aspect of that game was a little scary with
29:05
Speaker 3: Kayleb Williams, but.
29:06
Speaker 1: That's the reason we didn't we didn't put it in.
29:08
Speaker 1: I don't think.
29:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, Caleb Williams once again, whatever the
29:13
Speaker 3: change has happened, you know, I think he went over
29:16
Speaker 3: already at five scramble study at five rushes like he's
29:20
Speaker 3: more comfortable running outside the pocket when he needs to,
29:22
Speaker 3: and he's making big time throws, and you know, he
29:25
Speaker 3: had a couple of big rookie moments when they really
29:27
Speaker 3: couldn't afford it, and that overtime they lost it. But yeah,
29:31
Speaker 3: that was a really fun cover having that gamelin on
29:34
Speaker 3: a three, just because it's like everything that could have
29:36
Speaker 3: gone wrong felt go starting going wrong for them, especially
29:39
Speaker 3: when they had that muff punt.
29:41
Speaker 2: You know, they muffed that punt.
29:43
Speaker 3: The Lakings score right away, make it from seventeen to
29:45
Speaker 3: ten game to a twenty four to ten game. It's like, okay,
29:48
Speaker 3: that's a dead bet, and yeah that that Bears team.
29:51
Speaker 3: I know you guys have had the wins chat, but
29:53
Speaker 3: you guys have had hell of an exciting run.
29:55
Speaker 2: Here these last four or five weeks.
29:57
Speaker 3: So uh yeah, painful life being a bet, but silver
30:01
Speaker 3: lining is it feels like this is what the Lions
30:04
Speaker 3: went through and they eventually turned it around.
30:06
Speaker 2: So maybe this is just the beginning of something special. Chad.
30:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, except the Lions had Dan Campbell and we don't
30:12
Speaker 1: know who. Maybe we'll get Ben Johnson.
30:14
Speaker 3: Did you really were you about Dan Campbell when they
30:16
Speaker 3: had lost nine they started year zero to nine.
30:18
Speaker 1: I love Dan Campbell. I was always in. I was
30:20
Speaker 1: always on the game.
30:22
Speaker 3: I thought he was a fucking idiot. I was like,
30:23
Speaker 3: this is not gonna last once. They're a good team.
30:25
Speaker 1: But I was always on the Campbell bandwagon from day one.
30:28
Speaker 1: Never wavered. My god, man, you guys didn't bat an eye.
30:31
Speaker 1: I love this freaking team.
30:32
Speaker 2: I love the coaches, I love the players, I love
30:34
Speaker 2: everything about it. Man, we are so freaking hardened even
30:37
Speaker 2: when she doesn't go the way we wanted to. Man,
30:39
Speaker 2: you find a way.
30:41
Speaker 1: The scariest game that Cowboys Commander's game. Four touchdowns in
30:45
Speaker 1: the final three minutes. Four and a half minutes left
30:48
Speaker 1: nine to cover the under clearly it went over. The
30:56
Speaker 1: Commanders had two missed extra points, the Cowboys had a
31:01
Speaker 1: special teams touchdown on the on side kick, and then
31:04
Speaker 1: they had Kevon Turpin with a video game move on
31:09
Speaker 1: a kickoff, like are you freaking kidding me. That was
31:14
Speaker 1: I didn't bet the under or that total, but geez Louise,
31:19
Speaker 1: that was brutal if you did.
31:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, I liked the under.
31:22
Speaker 3: I like the under just because it was a really
31:25
Speaker 3: nice spot of Washington off extended rests, playing against a
31:29
Speaker 3: Cowboys team coming off a Monday night game, and it
31:32
Speaker 3: was like, Okay, both these teams I think are gonna
31:34
Speaker 3: be sloppy, unprepared. It was three to three and a half.
31:37
Speaker 3: I was feeling a really great about that under ticket,
31:39
Speaker 3: but you just said it. Then football happened and all
31:41
Speaker 3: these wonky crazy things happened. I think they scored like
31:45
Speaker 3: you just had twenty eight points in the finals three
31:48
Speaker 3: minutes of that fourth quarter, something crazy like that. And
31:51
Speaker 3: uh yeah, Terry McLaurin that Jane Daniels touchdown, you thought, okay,
31:57
Speaker 3: they'll go for two here, but dan Quinn did his
31:59
Speaker 3: classic dan Quin thing went for the extra point, and
32:02
Speaker 3: I'm so happy they missed it because I fucking hate him.
32:04
Speaker 3: I hate when they do that. It's like, I get it,
32:07
Speaker 3: your guys might be a little tired because they just
32:09
Speaker 3: ran the whole field. So was the defense, Like you
32:12
Speaker 3: can't tell me that's not the spot to go for
32:13
Speaker 3: two theres. So yeah, if you're a Cowboys fan, what
32:18
Speaker 3: a great win, Like you didn't think, Yeah.
32:21
Speaker 2: You thought this season was over.
32:22
Speaker 3: I think they'd lost five straight up to this point.
32:25
Speaker 3: You know, Rush had a good game and their defense
32:27
Speaker 3: showed up, Like you know, Kingsbury, he was the hot
32:31
Speaker 3: item to start the year, and now I don't know
32:34
Speaker 3: if they're going to bring him back. Man, it seems
32:36
Speaker 3: like his offense has been kind of figured out here
32:38
Speaker 3: down these last couple of weeks.
32:39
Speaker 1: Well, that's actually one of the reasons why I'm most
32:41
Speaker 1: disappointed we didn't put the Cowboys in is because we
32:45
Speaker 1: had a long conversation we identified Jaden daniels struggles the
32:50
Speaker 1: past five weeks. He's just consistently gotten worse and worse,
32:56
Speaker 1: to the point where when I mentioned Bo Nicks's Rookie
32:59
Speaker 1: of the Year, Matt Mitchell wants to fight me. But
33:04
Speaker 1: Jamee Daniels is just like that Terry McLaurin pass eighty
33:08
Speaker 1: six yards untouched. That was miraculous. I don't know that
33:11
Speaker 1: that makes him like any better. He was terrible in
33:15
Speaker 1: this game. So like we're gonna have to have a
33:19
Speaker 1: conversation about this. We're gonna have to have a conversation
33:21
Speaker 1: about Rookie of the Year and his bow Nix in
33:24
Speaker 1: his last four games doing completion percentage type numbers that
33:28
Speaker 1: are similar to what Jadon Daniels did in his first
33:30
Speaker 1: four games, and winning and actually getting better every game
33:34
Speaker 1: and winning in really challenging spots on the road against
33:37
Speaker 1: the Raiders who always cover in this spot in the division. Like,
33:42
Speaker 1: it's going to be a conversation. I want to see
33:44
Speaker 1: those odds when we get to to Tuesday show. Who
33:48
Speaker 1: impressed you this week? Because I want to talk about
33:51
Speaker 1: some of the games.
33:55
Speaker 2: I mean, you just talk about bow Nicks. I love Denver.
33:57
Speaker 3: This week it was a sweat but they covered, and
34:00
Speaker 3: it's just really about how great their offense and their
34:03
Speaker 3: defense is playing, about how bad the Raiders have been playing.
34:05
Speaker 2: And it literally played out that way right. The Raiders
34:08
Speaker 2: needed a fake punt.
34:10
Speaker 3: In a fifty yard return to kind of have the
34:13
Speaker 3: lead early on, and Minshew eventually knew, we knew he
34:16
Speaker 3: was gonna do it.
34:16
Speaker 2: He threw a pick, kind of flipped the.
34:18
Speaker 3: Whole game right, kind of gave the Denver what they
34:20
Speaker 3: needed so them in Miami like this Miami team, you know,
34:27
Speaker 3: to his numbers this year when you dive into it,
34:29
Speaker 3: he's been like really good, especially since he's come back.
34:32
Speaker 1: I know, it's amazing.
34:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're not playing against the best teams, but at
34:36
Speaker 3: the same time, he's been putting up the stats and
34:39
Speaker 3: like their offense is really a humming. And that was
34:41
Speaker 3: another really terrible read. That New England team. You know,
34:45
Speaker 3: I'll admit to it. I got sucked in just because
34:48
Speaker 3: Drake May had such big moments cut last couple of weeks.
34:52
Speaker 3: He looked totally out of in this game. Yeah, like
34:54
Speaker 3: totally lost from the get go. So they're definitely a team.
34:58
Speaker 3: You know, I wouldn't give props and a team that
35:02
Speaker 3: you were on this week, I should say in Tennessee,
35:05
Speaker 3: I still know what they are because their defense isn't
35:07
Speaker 3: good and that was the whole reason you.
35:08
Speaker 2: Kind of wanted to back them.
35:10
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know what to make of that team,
35:12
Speaker 3: even more so now because like we just said, Will
35:14
Speaker 3: Levis got dominated. But he is so good at pushing
35:17
Speaker 3: the ball downfield, Like when he's going downfield and then
35:19
Speaker 3: Pollard can run the ball.
35:21
Speaker 2: It just seems like Tennessee can move the ball.
35:23
Speaker 3: So they're just another team I really I have no
35:26
Speaker 3: read on right now because it's like I kind of
35:28
Speaker 3: wanted to take them this week and now I'm just
35:29
Speaker 3: thinking to myself, it's like, then we just get away
35:31
Speaker 3: with one backing on this past week.
35:33
Speaker 2: Do we really have to try to back them again?
35:35
Speaker 1: Well, here's the good news, Simon. Between Jade and Daniels
35:38
Speaker 1: and Will Levis and Tennessee and Tua and Jordan Love,
35:45
Speaker 1: We've talked about so many of the teams that I
35:49
Speaker 1: wanted to digig on to get on for a week thirteam.
35:54
Speaker 1: Let's talk about a couple of things giving games quickly. Yeah,
35:57
Speaker 1: Lions Bears in Detroit. Lions are ten and a half
36:00
Speaker 1: point favorites right now. How do we not take them?
36:04
Speaker 2: Yeah?
36:04
Speaker 3: And Evan's gonna give us some amazing stats this upcoming week.
36:06
Speaker 3: But basically we talk every year. Thanksgiving is a very new,
36:10
Speaker 3: unique day. It's a day where you basically just bet
36:13
Speaker 3: the favorites. You try not to overthink it just because
36:16
Speaker 3: historically the favorites cover. It's a weird trend, but it's
36:20
Speaker 3: panned out over my life as a better It's like
36:23
Speaker 3: I used to outthink it I used to be like, Okay,
36:25
Speaker 3: I'm always gonna take the dogs. Usually my theory's it
36:28
Speaker 3: stands true as day is I take all the favorites
36:31
Speaker 3: unless it's the Cowboys.
36:32
Speaker 2: I always fade the Cowboys.
36:33
Speaker 3: Whatever the dog is, I take that dog, especially outright
36:36
Speaker 3: and on the flip side, I always take the favorites.
36:39
Speaker 2: Here we go, Thank you, my man.
36:41
Speaker 3: Evan favorites of over ten points are nine to zero
36:44
Speaker 3: against the spread on Thanksgiving since two thousand and five
36:47
Speaker 3: eleven and oh against the spreads.
36:48
Speaker 2: It's a wildcard era. Wow. So that's what I mean, Like,
36:51
Speaker 2: you don't you know me? I want to bet that
36:53
Speaker 2: Bears team.
36:54
Speaker 3: I would love to take time and a half fem
36:55
Speaker 3: But on Thanksgiving you throw that stuff out.
36:57
Speaker 2: It's a public holiday.
36:59
Speaker 3: Like the books, they let you get fat eating food
37:02
Speaker 3: and let your wilet's get fat.
37:03
Speaker 2: Like, don't overthink it.
37:05
Speaker 3: You simply fade the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and you take
37:07
Speaker 3: all the other favorites.
37:09
Speaker 1: All right, Well that's the second game. So which is
37:11
Speaker 1: Miami three and a half point dog visiting Green Bay,
37:17
Speaker 1: Tua who looked amazing And I thought he looked amazing
37:19
Speaker 1: today and shout out doctor Nick Giffen, who gave out
37:22
Speaker 1: and convinced me this morning. The Dolphins team total over
37:25
Speaker 1: twenty seven and a half. They practically covered it in
37:28
Speaker 1: the first half. Tua, the ball handling, the accuracy, the comfort.
37:33
Speaker 1: Like I always think back to that scene of Mike
37:37
Speaker 1: McDaniels when he was flying from San Francisco to Miami
37:41
Speaker 1: on the private plane. He called to and told him
37:43
Speaker 1: how good he was going to be in this offense. Yeah,
37:45
Speaker 1: and he so nailed it. What a difference in this
37:50
Speaker 1: team when Tua is playing. Kudos to them, but they
37:55
Speaker 1: are historically terrible against good teams, historically terrible on the
37:59
Speaker 1: road against good teams. I'm sure Evan has the metrics,
38:02
Speaker 1: and if he doesn't have him tonight in the chat,
38:05
Speaker 1: then we'll talk about him on Tuesday. And this is
38:10
Speaker 1: a This is not a great spot for them. As
38:12
Speaker 1: much as I don't like Jordan Love, I feel like
38:15
Speaker 1: we got to take the Packers.
38:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you just talk a little bit about it.
38:19
Speaker 3: It's like, this ain't down in Miami. This is gonna
38:23
Speaker 3: be in what thirty degrees? Maybe I guess it's a
38:26
Speaker 3: night game, So what twenty degrees at night in Lambeau
38:30
Speaker 3: there's a reason they're giving you three and a half here, Chad, Yeah,
38:34
Speaker 3: I agree with your first glance.
38:35
Speaker 2: It's like, why is this not two and a half?
38:37
Speaker 2: Like Green Bay?
38:38
Speaker 3: The way these teams have been playing, I know I
38:41
Speaker 3: wanted to be as I'm with you. I wanted to
38:42
Speaker 3: be on two of here, but I just broke it down. People,
38:45
Speaker 3: I don't ever think it. I take the home favorites here.
38:48
Speaker 3: This is just the way it is. And once again
38:50
Speaker 3: we're getting a nice, nice line here. So there's a
38:53
Speaker 3: couple couple threes out there.
38:55
Speaker 2: I grab that if you can.
38:56
Speaker 3: Right now, I could just see all the books going
38:58
Speaker 3: to three and a half on this one Black Friday.
39:01
Speaker 1: There's four more games I want to discuss quickly, and
39:03
Speaker 1: then I want to get to the ones you will
39:04
Speaker 1: just so we.
39:04
Speaker 3: Close out Thanksgiving Lions, I just want to talk more
39:07
Speaker 3: Tuesday Lions, Giants and Green Bay.
39:11
Speaker 2: That's those are my bets right now.
39:12
Speaker 1: Wow, Giants love it. Ballsy Ballsy Black Friday Raiders twelve
39:18
Speaker 1: and a half at Kansas City. I'm taking it off
39:21
Speaker 1: now because we don't know what's going on with Minshew.
39:22
Speaker 1: I put it on the script in the script before
39:25
Speaker 1: we knew what was going on with Minshew. I want
39:27
Speaker 1: to take the Raiders in that spot. But if I
39:29
Speaker 1: don't know who the quarterback is, I'm a little bit
39:31
Speaker 1: more skeptical.
39:32
Speaker 2: I don't know.
39:32
Speaker 1: If you have thoughts there, I.
39:33
Speaker 3: Agree we're sticking to Oh Man, Minshew done for the season,
39:36
Speaker 3: broken collar boone, he yikes. So you want me to
39:41
Speaker 3: take a O'Connell in Kansas City on a short week.
39:43
Speaker 1: O'Connell's not going to be playing.
39:45
Speaker 2: Oh right, it's ridd Jesus god, oh god.
39:51
Speaker 1: That's what I mean. Of course, we want to take
39:54
Speaker 1: the division.
39:57
Speaker 3: To say, if you want to take the Raiders, wait
39:59
Speaker 3: because if I'm a I like the Chiefs, you gotta
40:00
Speaker 3: grab the Chiefs right now.
40:01
Speaker 2: This is going up.
40:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna it could get to two touchdowns, and
40:04
Speaker 1: if it gets two touchdowns, maybe again. But that's really
40:09
Speaker 1: about how the Chiefs play, not about the Raiders. Right.
40:13
Speaker 1: We see it week in and week out. The Chiefs
40:15
Speaker 1: are very conservative in the second half, and they like
40:19
Speaker 1: to milk the clock. They don't care how much they
40:22
Speaker 1: win by.
40:23
Speaker 2: No, they're they're playing for January.
40:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, They're good enough to convert when they need to
40:28
Speaker 1: and run the clock down. They're very conservative in the
40:31
Speaker 1: second half. It's how the Panthers stayed in today. All Right,
40:36
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh plus two and a half at Cincinnati, Mike Tomlin
40:39
Speaker 1: as a dog in the division on the road. Don't
40:43
Speaker 1: overthink it, don't overthink it. Don't tell me no.
40:48
Speaker 2: We can do it.
40:49
Speaker 3: I'm just pissed we don't get the three sons of bitches.
40:52
Speaker 3: The public is so out on the Bengals now because
40:55
Speaker 3: you know, if they would have capped off that comeback
40:58
Speaker 3: against the Chargers pittsburghloss like they did, We're getting three
41:02
Speaker 3: and a half here, no problem.
41:03
Speaker 2: We're getting three and a half on this number. So
41:06
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I'll take it. But let's hope, let's
41:09
Speaker 2: hope we get to a three on this one.
41:10
Speaker 3: That would be so nice in this matchup, because I
41:12
Speaker 3: just feel like this is going to be that classic
41:14
Speaker 3: game comes down to a field goal either side, right,
41:16
Speaker 3: I mean.
41:16
Speaker 1: We're not getting three in this game. It's already down
41:19
Speaker 1: to two in some places.
41:21
Speaker 2: Yeah.
41:21
Speaker 3: No, it makes sense again, the NFC North, they've been
41:23
Speaker 3: good to us. We've just literally just been betting the
41:25
Speaker 3: dog in this division. I think they're hitting out like
41:27
Speaker 3: a sixty percent clip this season.
41:29
Speaker 1: So North, all right, I'm gonna throw it at you.
41:35
Speaker 1: I'm upset we didn't fade Washington this week, and maybe
41:37
Speaker 1: that's influencing my decision making. I'm upset we didn't play
41:41
Speaker 1: Tennessee this week. It's almost like the NFL schedule they knew,
41:46
Speaker 1: they knew come Thanksgiving weekend they were going to have
41:51
Speaker 1: a game that is going to play with the psyche
41:55
Speaker 1: of betters in a way that tortures them all through
41:59
Speaker 1: the week. Tennessee is a seven and a half point
42:01
Speaker 1: dog at Washington right now. I think Washington's defense it's
42:06
Speaker 1: not very good. I think Jane Daniels has been struggling.
42:11
Speaker 1: I think interior pressure causes problems for him. Brian Robinson
42:15
Speaker 1: got banged up in this game. I don't want to
42:21
Speaker 1: do it. Tell me not to do it, and tell
42:25
Speaker 1: me why.
42:25
Speaker 2: I would say, dude, if you can get the seven,
42:27
Speaker 2: because I'm seeing almost all books are down to six.
42:30
Speaker 2: So seriously, yeah, you're on the professional side right now.
42:34
Speaker 2: The pros agree with you, which again makes sense.
42:36
Speaker 3: We've just talked about like that something's wrong with Washington
42:40
Speaker 3: right now, but betting Tennessee, I don't know.
42:43
Speaker 2: What I'm betting on. I'm just simply betting the number.
42:45
Speaker 2: That's all I know.
42:46
Speaker 3: At Tennessee right now, like that will let us to
42:50
Speaker 3: carry you to these covers right now is literally.
42:52
Speaker 1: Rushing That line moved a full point through a key
42:56
Speaker 1: number since we've been on the air. Yeah, because I
43:00
Speaker 1: checked this right before we came on the air. Wow,
43:04
Speaker 1: that's super frustrating. Goshdarn the almost holiday movie signed movie time?
43:09
Speaker 1: Do you know what movie that's from?
43:12
Speaker 2: Christmas Vacation?
43:13
Speaker 1: Nice? I think that was before you were born. And
43:16
Speaker 1: you know it.
43:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got VHS.
43:20
Speaker 1: Chess, Jesus Christ Carolina plus six and a half at
43:24
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Done book it, Let's go.
43:26
Speaker 2: I know we have to go. They know. That was
43:30
Speaker 2: the line that jumped out to me too, where it's like,
43:33
Speaker 2: you know, some books open at seven, some books opened
43:36
Speaker 2: at six. Six and a half. Six feels right, That
43:39
Speaker 2: feels like where this line should be.
43:41
Speaker 3: Because Tampa is I mean, we talked about they're like
43:44
Speaker 3: the most complete team, no doubt in that division.
43:47
Speaker 2: Like they're they've just been unlucky.
43:49
Speaker 3: They lost those two games to Atlanta and games in
43:52
Speaker 3: which they easily could have won, didn't break their way.
43:55
Speaker 2: They're just so well coached.
43:58
Speaker 3: You know, not that I I hope they're gonna lose today,
44:01
Speaker 3: but everything about today was like they might look over
44:04
Speaker 3: this Giants team and not really take them serious. They
44:08
Speaker 3: came out there and just beat their ship out go
44:10
Speaker 3: seventeen nothing like that.
44:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, they were not fucking around.
44:14
Speaker 3: And you know Mike Evans back, you see immediately how
44:18
Speaker 3: big of a difference it mix that offense where it's
44:20
Speaker 3: like he can just get you that five six yards
44:23
Speaker 3: anytime you really need it.
44:25
Speaker 2: And we've seen it now.
44:27
Speaker 3: Bucky Irving, he's coming and really reshaped that team's running style.
44:31
Speaker 2: He just runs so hard.
44:34
Speaker 3: You know, it's just been so impressive watch him as
44:36
Speaker 3: a rookie get better every week. And you know, Todd
44:38
Speaker 3: Bowles is old school, he's still giving you know, I
44:41
Speaker 3: think it's white.
44:42
Speaker 2: They're number one a lot of touches.
44:43
Speaker 3: But you know, Bucky Tommy, he's the he's the game
44:47
Speaker 3: changer right now on that offense, like him with Baker
44:50
Speaker 3: Mike Evans, like that's that's a really good offense right now.
44:53
Speaker 3: And you know this Carolina team, we just talked about
44:56
Speaker 3: it there. Their defense is bad, like teams are always
45:00
Speaker 3: be able to move the ball on that The key
45:01
Speaker 3: is for us with them, what type of rights young
45:04
Speaker 3: we get in that day and when he's on this
45:06
Speaker 3: offense is click. And then well they're what three straight covers?
45:09
Speaker 1: Now, yeah, straight two wins, three covers.
45:12
Speaker 2: They turned it around, they turn around and.
45:15
Speaker 1: Like this is a big favorite in a division game,
45:20
Speaker 1: and so they're gonna be on the road.
45:22
Speaker 3: And then one more before we go. Just this, this
45:25
Speaker 3: to me is like the stinkiest, funkiest line of the week.
45:28
Speaker 3: Saints plus two and a half at home against this
45:31
Speaker 3: Rams team. I told you I think the Rams are
45:33
Speaker 3: gonna win tonight. So it's like, I'm not a rush
45:36
Speaker 3: to bet this one, but i promise you me and
45:38
Speaker 3: Chad gonna be on the Saints. Yeah yeah, Like that's
45:43
Speaker 3: not that I like the match up for them, because
45:45
Speaker 3: I've we've already seen how that Saints team is gonna be. Now,
45:48
Speaker 3: like they're gonna be our run heavy team, which I love.
45:50
Speaker 3: But if if the Rams went tonight, this will be
45:53
Speaker 3: a perfect spot to sell on this team.
45:58
Speaker 1: Well, look, there's a lot of games we can discuss.
46:00
Speaker 1: The forty nine ers or six and a half point
46:01
Speaker 1: Dogs on the road at the bills. We don't know
46:04
Speaker 1: the status of anybody for that game. We've heard brock
46:07
Speaker 1: Perty is going to play a lot to talk about
46:12
Speaker 1: next week. Super excited to unpack all of it. We
46:16
Speaker 1: got the rams tonight. Even though Simon and I are
46:20
Speaker 1: on opposite sides, I'm going to root for us to
46:23
Speaker 1: be three and two. Let's against a root against my dollars.
46:27
Speaker 1: I love Simon and I want him to be right,
46:29
Speaker 1: and I want us to be good in the contest.
46:31
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