Latest / Apex Insiders Podcast / Indycar Barber GP 2026 | Push to Cash Betting Preview

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Indycar Barber GP 2026 | Push to Cash Betting Preview · Apex Insiders Podcast

• @f1capper: All right, welcome to Push to Cash, the Barber pre-betting preview. Actually got Indie Bet here, got iNate Rogers. My boys, it's been a couple weeks. Actually, Nate and I, we had a recap show last week and we got to talk a lot about Arlington GP. We did tease Barber, but now it's here. We're finally away from a street circuit and an oval. And we're kind of at a traditional track, so how are you guys doing actually, first off? @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I'm good. glad, you know, short short break for IndyCar. And so, ready to get back at it. Indy_Bet: Yeah man, me too. Ready to bet on a track that we've been at before. We've got history. We know what's going on. We're not guessing like the last two. ⁓ yeah, ready to fire. I got some takes. I got some thoughts. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. ⁓ We got some takes, I love it. Yeah, no, I agree. mean, Barber's is gonna be pretty awesome. Maybe, we'll see. I know it's hard to pass track and everything. ⁓ But it's good for betting. I always say that. Boring means it's good for betting. You remove those variables. So why don't we kick it off with Nate's preview, because I like him giving his previews. @iN8Rodgers: Okay, yeah, mean road courses should be... You know the moat the lease, you know, voldo that we see, know, it's possible crazy stuff happens But I think we all kind of like road courses for that reason even though, you know, it's not as much action as maybe Wild stuff you see in the streets and the ovals, but here we are back at barber 16th race here Going back to the early 2000s. I believe it's a 2.3 mile 17 turn natural road course in Birmingham, Alabama It's a flowy track yet really challenging for the drivers physically so anyone that's not kind of up on their weights struggles here. ⁓ It's got 80 feet of elevation changes and a difficult passing but I think the last couple years the drivers have found their spots they they want to get it done. A lot of that action is going to come in the pit cycle blends and then also turns five through nine you'll see a lot of stuff going on there. ⁓ This race, historically, whether you look at a shorter term sample or spread it out over several years, statistically is the most ⁓ track position imperative qualifying importance ⁓ up to the highest importance. ⁓ When you look at these stats, We've had the pole sitter win seven out of 15 times and a driver on the first row has won 12 out of 15 times ⁓ Ninth is the furthest back a driver has been able to win ⁓ When you're looking at that fast six 80 % of the podium places come from that Fast 6 over last 10 years, last 5 years, even 3 years. 70 % of those podium spots are claimed when you zoom into rows 1 and 2. And then you zoom into row 1, get just around 50 % of the podium. So almost, the guys starting in that first row almost always stay up there. We had Linus Lundquist a couple years ago come from 19th and 2024. But there's only been one other driver that finished in the top three with him from 11th or worse. So many of those podium spots are coming up from that fast six and even closer. Then even looking at the top five, 68 % of the top five, ⁓ they've started between first and fifth. And on average, only one driver starting 11th or worse will finish in the top five across a 10-year span. Lastly, Chevy engines have have the edge here. They've won nine of 15 and seven out of the last ten Most of that coming from team penske, of course They have eight wins total and the next closest teams have two I think and dready and Ganassi have two wins here @f1capper: Yeah, no, that's track position is key. It's hard to pass. It's a lot of flow, a lot of, you gotta take care of your tires really. What is this, two stop, I think, three? Three. @iN8Rodgers: It's a 3-3, Indy_Bet: It's going to be a three-stop race. A bunch of engineers were out on socials. ⁓ said, barring somebody getting stupid with cautions and trying to either extend or go for it, it's pretty much a three-stop race. @iN8Rodgers: pre-hybrid, it was a two and three stop blend race that was kind of exciting. But then the three stop was getting really strong the last couple years. And then last year, the tires didn't last past 25 laps, I think was the longest stint somebody did on a tire stint, which you need to push more past 30 if you're gonna do a two stop. So people just have been way too slow and everyone went three stops last year or more. @f1capper: Yeah, and one thing I was looking into, I was looking into a few other things. I won't bring up the others, but you did mention cautions as something. Last year there were no cautions. And in 2024 we had four cautions since then. I think on average you might see two. One to two going back to, I just went back to 2018. So it might impact some of the stuff that I will bring up to y'all when we start talking about bets, which. we'll just sleeve right into it. I know Nate, have a bet that I absolutely loved, which might tie into this caution, where you can have that discussion. And I actually loved it so much, I was like making sure I caught in on it. So why don't you go ahead and talk about it. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, so this bet's on Caesars. It's a prop on Caesars. love if the props are out there. I love looking for them. It's lap leaders under 4.5. I ⁓ think that the line has moved a little bit. I did half a unit on it. So if you listen to the St. Pete props, I'm a little less confident in this one as I was in those, but I still really like this. It's hit on six of nine of the road courses in the hybrid era and five out of five times when Palo is on pole. I think those are relevant numbers because ⁓ when When Palau is up there starting up front, he typically is very hard to get past. If you have someone that's a surprise pole sitter here, ⁓ they might give up that lead early. ⁓ Palau, he stretches the stints out farther, meaning on the pit cycles you might see bunch of leads change hands in certain races. But here on road courses where Palau is controlling the whole field, the stats just show that There's not a ton of lap leaders last year this race had three I believe And I think the hybrid plays into that too the weight and wear of the tires prevents people from really You know someone trying to stretch many laps beyond what Palo could do or even if someone like McLaughlin or Lundgaard is leading this race I still like it And @f1capper: Yeah. Indy_Bet: Nate, I hate to break it you, but you broke the market, dude. They pulled that. No longer there. It's gone. @f1capper: They did, but I will talk about the other one where it kind of is a similar one, but it's a little different, which was the 7 1 @iN8Rodgers: It's gone. Indy_Bet: Number of lead changes, right? So it's funny we talk about this. I had a heated text exchange back and forth debate about this with a friend in IndyCarMedia today who... @iN8Rodgers: Yeah. @f1capper: I think I know which friend because he and I were messaging too. Indy_Bet: Yeah, who was telling me he was thinking Locke on over seven and a half lead changes. I specifically said, I specifically said, dude, I was like, well, first off, was like lead changes or leaders, because that matters to me, Clarification, yeah, PSA, lead changes, leaders, make sure you read the line of the book. I like making that leaders, but @f1capper: Yes! Yes, and that's, I just want to make that clear. Yes. Yes. because it could be, ⁓ but just very quickly, just very quickly, I just want to point this out to the viewers. The bet that Nate is talking about is by the actual driver. So they take the lead, if they lose the lead, then that's two leaders, but if they come back and take the lead, that's still two leaders versus lead changes could be, doesn't matter how many times, it changes. Sorry about that, so carry on. Indy_Bet: Right. all right. So if you look at the data, so the data is a little funky. Like the IndyCar website had it at seven last year, 10 the year before, and then I think eight the year before that. And I just want to just, you stick to the hybrid error, give or take. So I'm like, well, seven and half seems like a good line. I'm thinking maybe a lead change on lap one, maybe. and then you have three pit stops, right? You're gonna change the lead every pit stop. So there's three locked in, that's four. And then maybe a lead change or two at the end of the race, five, six. I'm thinking under if I had to lean. And I don't know, all right, so go ahead, Cap. You tell, you. @f1capper: No, no, I'm like, that was the first thing, like, I got the message and he posted the screen. was like, ⁓ my God, we should be taking that under seven and a half. Indy_Bet: That's what I said. @f1capper: He is, but his argument, which is okay, it's valid. That's why I went back to go look at the cautions and safeties and stuff, because that's where it's going to impact this is, yes, if you have four cautions, of course we're going to have that kind of chaos, but we've only had more than two once, and that was in 2024. There was a lot of chaos. His expectations is like, there's going to be a lot of dummies that could cause this, but my mind is kind of with you. I think like we might see two, we can't predict cautions at the end of the day, so you gotta go with what you see in front of you and what the data is telling you, but I'm with you. think. Indy_Bet: I mean, I've got room for two cautions, plus my three pit stops, plus maybe one pass for the lead at some point, because we know you don't pass here in green flag. So I'm under, I think his point is valid about people stay out, blah, blah, blah. So if there are more than three cautions, if you think there's going to be crashes, you go over. If you think it's going to be a clean race. And I think it also matters who qualifies where, right? @f1capper: Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. Yeah. Indy_Bet: So if we get some jabronis qualifying first or second or third, but if the top four include Pato, Palo and Scott McLaughlin, I'm going under. think it's a good line and probably a fair price at 115. And I do think it's fun bet. If I had Caesars, I'd bet it under. funny, we went back and forth for like an hour today. @f1capper: Yeah. I agree. I agree. That's that's that's friggin hysterical because I was like do I bring this up and I'm like, okay So we both have been chatting about it because he was he I didn't so I didn't know how much I wanted to push back number one It was like during the day I was still trying to focus on some work and whatnot and then I was like, man, I don't know I'm like Mike I just did unders where it's at and to your point the line at minus 115 That's that's fair. Right? I think I think that's a valid line Indy_Bet: Yeah, caught my eye. @f1capper: My personal opinion, you can put it at minus 125. Sure. Okay. We're splitting hairs a little bit with how much VIG, but I, my mind was on the under, but going back to Nate's original bet, I don't know if it makes sense for me to continue to pile on on the bet like that because I've already got the prop in a four and a half as the driver itself. But part of me wants, I love props, man. That's what I, this is what I look for in F1 all the time. It's like, where can I find some of this stuff? And I'm considering it. I'm considering doubling down on the under. And if you've, you've bought in on the under, you are on the under, it sounds like. I'm, I'm there with you. I'm there with you. Indy_Bet: I value his opinion. I think it's fun. I would lean under for sure. That was my initial instinct. My first text was under question mark question mark right? Like log of the century on the under right? And he's like no the over. I'm like you out of your mind dude. then I laid out my points but I just explained. yeah think it's a cool little bet. I like Nate's a little bit better if it shows back up. @f1capper: I do too, 100%. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah. @f1capper: Hey, in... Yep. Yeah, no, that was such a superior bet. And if you're listening to this, this is why getting into Discord is much easier, because you get these, Caesar's number one, just, I mean, they dropped, yeah, they just like, you got the opportunity on Lundgaard, they dropped it at 12 to one, and by the time I could try to phone one in, it was like, they took it down within like five minutes. So if you are betting on Caesar's, you have to be really quick on the gun there. @iN8Rodgers: They don't last long. @f1capper: But that's the same thing I put. was like, that under seems like a gift. That was my exact quote. @iN8Rodgers: And I don't necessarily think that that 10 number that hit two years ago was all due to the higher cautions. Yet that's when the pit strategies were blending still two years ago, where half the field kind of did two stops and half did three. So that's where you get so many lead changes compared to when everyone's kind of trying to hit the same windows. You're kind of, if you look at the flow of the race summaries, you're kind of just swapping back between the same two or three @f1capper: Mm-hmm. the same. @iN8Rodgers: people mostly unless things get really weird when everyone is on the same pitch strategy. @f1capper: Yeah, no, that makes sense. I'm glad we're having this conversation, which actually leads me to when I was looking at a lot of the data, I was like, well, they got another prop. And I thought maybe that could be a topic of discussion here, which is the average speed of the race, which I tried to go back and look. Right now the over is at minus ⁓ 120. And I was like trying to put together just like, let me look at the numbers here and just kind of the averages. So going back to 2021, 2021, we had, it went under, I think it was 110 miles per hour was the average. 2022, 2023 went over 114, 115, 2024, you had four cautions. So that means everyone's slowing down for four of those cautions. We got 110 again. And then last year, We peaked at 116. I get it, there was no cautions, but 112 to me seems like if we get two cautions, you're still okay. You start going over two cautions, then you're on life support if you are on the over 112. But where my lean is is maybe doing the over. But the question of course is the cautions. We can't predict that. I'm on the belief of in a track like this, probably we'll see less cautions. Yes, there's obviously gonna be some chaos at some point potentially, but we thought that last year too and there was zero, right? We thought that for Arlington, there was basically not until the end, right? So I think that... ⁓ Indy_Bet: Yeah, I would lean over, I'm with you on that. And then I think another little angle to add to your handicap there is this is not a street course, right? So when a caution happens, the cleanup is quicker. They get the cars off faster because there's not a ton of pieces. If there's a caution, the cars are stuck in the sand or they went into the tires. well off and away from the track. there's no get the sweeper. It's not like St. Pete where you gotta wait for the tow truck to get there. You gotta wait for the sweeper to come sweep the track and they gotta pick up the pieces and like, so, and the cars are actually moving around a big long track a little quicker. So I like that angle. mean, I think. If there's three cautions, you're done. You lose. If you think there's less than two, two or less, I think you'll come in over 112. And it is juiced just a little bit to the over 120, which I think that's good. @f1capper: Well, so doing some probabilities with it just again I take it with a grain of salt because I'm just using some of the simple data I have it as a 64 % implied odds which puts it at minus one and 80 right so you there there might be some value but I don't still think that's I Personally think it's still like at a 57 % 55 % which probably puts out where it's gonna be at so @iN8Rodgers: I just looked and I've got the last 10 years and two years ago we did have four cautions but the other nine have been two or less. @f1capper: or less. @iN8Rodgers: ⁓ And then two things I just thought about that would help for the over is that we've seen Indy car a lot just kind of if these guys do get stuck in the sand or they're off the racing line Indy car is more prone to leave it green now than they were years ago because they were so sick of Backmarkers spinning out and ruining the race that they've just left these guys sitting there and leaving it green leading to less cautions Another thing to think about is how these guys can Restart themselves with the hybrid engine which has led to a few less cautions also So I think we're getting, I agree there with you guys, leaning the over. Indy_Bet: to drive somewhere that has Caesars. Get on the plane. @f1capper: Yeah, I mean this got me excited because you know what when we start getting some of these probably these kind of types of props and whatnot It's a breath of fresh air that we can really now dig into the stats. We can dig into the data we can use it because Quite quite honestly, I don't @iN8Rodgers: You @f1capper: know how much you can do that with just outrights, right? know, top threes, it's not really, it's harder to do that. This is what I look for and this is what I'm excited about. So, ⁓ I'm glad we talked this through because I was like, wait, am I wrong? Because you're right, he's a respected individual and I really trust the guy's input. I'm like, ⁓ my God, am I thinking this wrong now? So, I think with our minds, I think, yeah. Well, you know what, what's funny is, Indy_Bet: told me you an idiot. It's cool. @f1capper: there's nothing wrong with disagreement. A lot of the times we agree just about on everything, but there's a time that we'll come in and there's things we don't agree with, like ⁓ McButters with Pato and Nate Rogers. That's always a fun one. I like bringing that one back up. It's fun to see it. ⁓ All right, so let's talk about, I think you had another bet. Nate and I actually kind of like it. I'm actually, let me just see if you can see this right here. Probably the curse. I probably cursed it already, so why you go ahead with it. @iN8Rodgers: So I think you're talking about the match up here that was on the score. I think you're going to hear me at least talking a lot of fade and dready. sure maybe you guys might be feeling that too a little bit. So McLaughlin was at minus 115, which is about as good as you're going to get on an even match up there, the juice. I went 1.15 units on ESP in bed, or the score now it is. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. @iN8Rodgers: You might see that later on Bovada. Yeah, I feel really good about that. McLaughlin's been a monster here. Kirkwood and Andretti as a whole is just, you know, they really need to improve a lot to be on McLaughlin's level. So that was in no thought play for me. @f1capper: Yeah, I agree. And there's something I've been trying to better understand is, we talk about the street circuits and Dredi is just pretty superior with their setups on street circuits. And I wonder if that has something to do. So like in F1, it's always about ride height. If they have to raise the car a little bit, that starts ruining the balance, it starts ruining maybe their aero efficiencies. And I know this is a... little different in Indy car because they're all the same, pretty much same cars, but it still makes me wonder if that's what Andretti is finding is that they are able to maximize their output at street circuits. If they raise the car just a little bit, just compared to the rest of the field. And that's probably what maybe what we're seeing is that type of setup still happen. Now, fast forward, we're into a track everyone can keep at the, probably a similar ride height. But now everyone has probably got a little bit more speed, right? So I wonder if that has something to do with it. And that's why maybe you see a McLaren. So thermal is another example from last year. I know we don't race there anymore. It's a flat circuit. We saw a pretty epic battle going on between McLaren and in Ganassi at one point. So then they just kind of fade through all the other street circuits. So I don't know what y'all thought on that. Indy_Bet: you @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, my key ticket. Indy_Bet: Yeah, Fade, Fade, Fade Andretti. I think Kirkwood being the second favorite is wrong. We'll talk about a rival later. He's a Fade, even Powers a Fade. All those guys. Yeah, no thank you for any of them you want. You want Ganassi, McLaughlin and, and, and Lungard and Pado on, know, some of Kyan McLaren. So you want Kyan Petsky, Kyan McLaren and Ganassi cars in my opinion for this race. @f1capper: If there are any. Okay, so we got some top three odds on Caesars. Who are you taking for top three? Scott McLaughlin at plus 150, Lundgaard at plus 140. Indy_Bet: Yeah, all right. want to gotta I gotta I gotta rant. I can't bet outrights in any car anymore. It just doesn't the math doesn't math. I've had it. It is it makes zero sense for me to Alex pillow at even money. If I can go build a card and get double the odds or more on Pato. @f1capper: or Pato, or Pato, whoever. Yeah. Okay, go for it. Indy_Bet: McLaughlin, Lungard, Armstrong for top threes. So. You when I've been in any car, you know, this I've been winning any car for a long time. When I bet outright, I want to, I want to win at least five to one on my money. I've hit 40 to ones, 20 to ones. Usually if you hit a winner, it's 10 to one, you know, try to hit like three, four winners a year. You collect your 10 to one. And now I'm dealing with this polo crap that their books are posting. I saw DraftKings had minus one 40 for him to win. That is stupid ridiculous. Now, yes, he probably is going to win, but I'm not risking. @f1capper: Yeah. Indy_Bet: ⁓ Whatever amount of units my unit size for a minus 140 outright winner that is Insane and especially when the math doesn't math I can get these guys that I like at top threes and like, know, sometimes I still throw a quarter unit I might still throw a little bit on a 50 to 1 Armstrong or I mean even look, know, I do like McLaughlin I you know if you can find eight nine ten to one quarter unit, like still I have to still protect for the pillow, but I can get double the odds and I still have two places at least. And if something happens to pull now I have three places to cash double the bet I would have made on this guy to bet outright. I'm glad we talked about the props. I'm glad they're getting posted. God, I wish we could get head to heads consistently at every sports book ⁓ that I wouldn't have to parlay though. love, you know, shout out to, you know, I don't want to talk about, yeah, can't do it. So I'm just. @f1capper: Yeah. Indy_Bet: It's just a loser situation. The math doesn't make sense. So if I can get top three odds at double the outright at pillow or more, I'm just going to build top three cards and top five cards and move on with life. @f1capper: You're speaking my language, man. It's been like that for a while for me. I've just not had this. There was a time when outrides made sense where you might be able to find those odds. You had a more competitive like top heavy field, I guess, between Penske and the Ganassi's and whatnot, different tracks, whatever it was, but it's just not been the same for the past, especially during the hybrid era. That's always been my approach is I stopped really going in on outrights unless maybe it's an oval like it's New Garden, right? Yeah, it's an ovals. Yes. And then. Indy_Bet: was going say the only caveat is the ovals. Yeah, the ovals is the caveat and maybe that helps me make more money. Like that's the only thing that helped me break even last year is hitting the oval winners and hitting the ovals. But when it comes to now, it used to also be street circuits a little bit and I used to split my bet. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah. Indy_Bet: you know, half on the win to protect from him and half on the top threes. But dude, to do one this race by 19 seconds, I mean, this race is going to come down to the new tires and the rubber. And I feel like the only two guys that know how to drive the hybrid car efficiently and fast are McLaughlin and Palo. Like that's the list. The rest of them all have to luck box their way to wins, which happened. @f1capper: Yeah. Well even- Even then, even then McLaughlin has been, you know, one of those guys he can qualify. Something happens, right? Whether it's strategy or the car or something. Yeah. Indy_Bet: Right. So, so my, my, my bets for this race, give me McLaughlin top three, give me award top three, give me Armstrong top three, might add Monday to the card. Yeah. I like Armstrong as it's 12 to one. I'll play with that. Um, and, maybe lungard, uh, fade Kirkwood fade and ready. @f1capper: Armstrong. That's actually pretty nice. Indy_Bet: Not and then screw these up these minus whatever below outrights forget it. @f1capper: And now that you have Cal-She, and now that you have Cal-She, Cal-She is posting, you know, they're putting out the outrights there for you and you can just attack as you're watching. You just have to be very quick with Cal-She though. And there's going to be a lot of times like you may not get your full amount in because you probably are just right on the line of when something is happening and every the volume is going in on a specific number. so That's why I'm also like not. I don't want to take anything away though from Nate because he's had an awesome year so far with these outrights. And to your point, there is a time and place like if Lundgaard was there for 12 to one, I would still take it. But I already know that it's probably going to be gone because maybe Palo is going to win or he likely will. But. I think that you still have to look at those opportunities like what Nate is doing where he's getting those opportunities to get the high numbers low. You're putting a low unit risk on there where it's a high reward. So there's still that opportunity, but you know, like Indy bet here, like we don't have that opportunity where we can just go to all these books and find that as soon as it comes in. So I I'm with you 100 % Indy. I just I'm the same way. I've always been that way. Give me the matchups. Give me the props. This is what we need from the books that will make us more powerful. So @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, no, I generally agree with that. mean, it's it last year was hard for me because of Palo trying to find those guys that like, someone's going to beat him this week. Someone's going to beat him this week. And then even when it's tough when he takes away one of those podium spots, too. So you're only trying to find two spots. I'm going to keep playing now, right? Because like you said, I do have so many options and I just enjoy it just for a personal like, let me try to nail this guy, a personal challenge of like how many times can I call the winner? ⁓ But I agree generally of like if you're looking for a place to save your bankroll, it's probably there and then go find good matchups, go find good top threes because the odds for these top threes, just placed a couple, ⁓ I mean we're getting some crazy numbers for people because they're starting below at such a low number and everyone else falls after that. @f1capper: Yeah, man. So who are the ones that you like then for top three? @iN8Rodgers: I just got a ward at plus 325 for half a unit. ⁓ I think he's around 300 and around there in a couple books. The thought process on that is that I really like Lungard as well, but I'm getting double the number for Pato. I a guy who's, I mean, he's finishing right with Lungard, right behind him on these courses. And then I took Maluchis seven to one ⁓ for a quarter a unit. I'm going to keep pulling on Maluchis such a good car especially at tracks where Penske's good. Once again I really love McLaughlin but if I got to take him at plus 150 when I could get Maluchus at seven to one yeah McLaughlin's a lot more proven but Maluchus has the car and he has the talent seven to one that's a really cheap buy I still have room later if I want to add a Lundgaard or McLaughlin to that and I could try to sweep the whole podium really. @f1capper: Yeah, no, makes sense, man. Again, low risk, high reward kind of situation, into your point. Same car, never know. Never know he could stick it. I don't know what I wanna do. My mind, my gut, I don't wanna do multiple. I would like a, right now it's five to one for Maluchis on Caesars and Pato is at plus 275. Honestly, I've had the worst luck with Pato. going back to 2024, so I don't know what I want to do. I'm high on Lungard, but I'm also very cautious because I'm like, maybe I'm too high on him this weekend. Plus I got a lot of grid rival on him at this point. Do I just do it? Do I just do McLaughlin? Do we have a consensus? Like, he is so good here. I'm just a Penske, gosh, that team just kills me, man. I don't know, what do you think? @iN8Rodgers: There was a... I mean, there was a while where part of my strategy was like, I wouldn't re-bet the winner at places or I wouldn't bet someone that won last week because it just kind of seemed it didn't work that way. It was so competitive, but now it's almost like it's so competitive that these guys are blocked in at their one or two tracks a year where they're like, I'm dominating this one. And so it's like, you do kind of have to keep coming back to these same guys now. ⁓ Like McLaughlin here and things like, obviously below it every road course, but ⁓ yeah. It's, McLaughlin's kind of, you know, he hasn't given us a reason to not take him here. @f1capper: Alright, I might do it. Indy_Bet: McLaughlin. Yeah, McLaughlin would be my outright and the Pato top three. So McLaughlin, I'll have Pato, I'll have both of those guys top threes. ⁓ If I were to bet outrides, I don't want to, but it'd be those two. If you can find, ⁓ we have both of those two. I think Pato is the better. Pato's got really good track history. In the one year I think he did bad, he messed up in qualifying and that just messed up the race. So. ⁓ @f1capper: Well, no, for top three, for top three though. Indy_Bet: Yeah, I think this is a pot of track. So. @iN8Rodgers: That was the year everyone in the Discord bet on him in here. It got people little sour on him because he was terrible that weekend. @f1capper: Yeah, know. know. Alright. Indy_Bet: Yeah. But he did show up in that rate. He gained like he went through the field. I think he finished top 10. I would have to look but. @f1capper: I have to go back and see what happened, but I know at one point, like it was like all three McLarens were just super racy and even Siegel was joining into the mix and blocking his own teammates. And I was like, Jesus, Siegel, like calm down, you know, just, just not going the way I was hoping for at that race. But let me then do a shout out. Number one, I did get a screenshot of the matchups on ESPN where the score or whatever you guys call it these days. ⁓ So the Scott McLaughlin did move. It is now at minus 150 to Kirkwood. Willpower is at against New Garden. New Garden's even money and it's about minus 130. Willpower kind of lean New Garden there for some reason. And then ⁓ Maluchis is the same price, minus 130 to Marcus Erickson. I kind of like that one. And then Indy_Bet: Yeah, I do too. @f1capper: Lungard is just really juiced to his own teammate. ⁓ It almost makes it into territory where you probably want to take Pato, but I'm not risking that. actually that might not be a better bet to take on other outside of Pato's top three because I mean, Indy_Bet: What's the number? @f1capper: So it is minus 200 for Lungard and it's plus 160 for Pato. Indy_Bet: Yeah, unless you can find like three or like it'd have to be plus 275 or better for his top three. Yeah, I think you're probably getting better value for him to beat Lundgaard. @f1capper: Yeah, better value. Only one thing he has to do is just beat his teammate. And if you're expecting him to be a top three, he's gonna be really fast. So that's if you wanna take that option, you can take that. So how do we feel about Malukis over Marcus Ericsson then? then actually, let me go back to the McLaughlin one. Would you take it at minus 150? You would. Indy_Bet: Right. They're probably going to be. Yes. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, it's getting tight there, but... Indy_Bet: Nope, anything under minus 200. I don't want to pay minus. I don't like paying more than minus 50, but against Kirkwood. @f1capper: I won't do that, yeah. Yeah, it's against Kirkwood. McLaughlin. @iN8Rodgers: I think it's going to take bad luck from McLaughlin for that to go the other way more than... just... Andretti has not shown it here. Indy_Bet: This is the track he won at. think this is a play he knows he's got a he knows if he wants to win the title this year, he's got a he's got a like top three this thing top two thing or even win this thing. Probably he's probably thinks he's probably it probably is true. He's got to win if he's going to have a title shot. I don't know if everybody's just playing for second now, but ⁓ yeah, I would. I think that is a good bet. My sweet 50. @f1capper: Okay. Okay. Yeah. Go for it. @iN8Rodgers: ⁓ I wanted to touch on New Garden real quick. I found this kind of interesting that back starting in 2015 he had this run of first, third, first, first, fourth, and then came the arrow screen. And since then he's been here 23rd, 14th, 15th, 16th, and 10th. So I don't think the arrow screen has necessarily been a problem for him overall, but that's just kind of where I'm seeing that line of like arrow screen comes in and he hasn't, he's got one top 10 here after a place that he, you know, was top five for five plus years. Indy_Bet: I he sucks at the hybrid. He had to cheat to make it work. ⁓ @f1capper: Definitely the hybrid. @iN8Rodgers: You @f1capper: Yeah, the hybrids are definitely playing games with Penske and there's it's just throwing their whole like their their cars up but at the same time mcglofflin has been doing Pretty well for the most part. It's just you can still see it in the race, know, sometimes he just drops off but a lot it's you can chalk it up to some of it being strategy and some of it being other factors, but ⁓ @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, it's not that Penske fell off here because Power has five top fives here in the last five years and McLaughlin 6-1-1-3 in the last four years. So New Garden is the outlier on that team when it comes to this track. ⁓ It's just kind of weird. @f1capper: Yeah. So, would you take New Garden at even money to beat power? @iN8Rodgers: I wouldn't because just I like Pinsky but I, New Garden has not shown it here for half of a decade. So I'm laying off. @f1capper: Peace. Yep. Yep. Indy_Bet: Yeah, I mean, I spend my capital elsewhere. I lean that way, but I could probably put money to work it better than even money elsewhere. @f1capper: Yeah, I agree. I've already phoned that one in. While we were talking, I got some on the under seven and a half. I did the over 112 on the ⁓ average speed. I didn't do a full unit. I just did to win 75 on those. Trying to be cautious of going in. When I first, I would like to see some. @iN8Rodgers: I would rather go with Maloukis at minus 130 over. Indy_Bet: Put it all in the under seven and a half, bro. You're good. @f1capper: practice and qualifying and whatnot before we do that. But just confirmed, I got my Maluchus over Ericsson Bet, and that is to win a unit. @iN8Rodgers: I I tried to parlay that one with Palo who was minus 300 over Kirkwood on 365. They brought it up to plus 135, but I just couldn't get any money down on it. So. @f1capper: That's a good, that's a very good bet. If you were listening to this, you probably want to do that. If you have bet 365 access, that's a nice shout right there. That's pretty beautiful. ⁓ @iN8Rodgers: I I want to fade Kirkwood out of principle so bad that I want to take his no win at minus 550 on Caesars and I want to take a minus 300 matchup with Palau over him. @f1capper: I think Indy was trying to get that over to me. I think that was where I was gonna flip, but let's get on that. I mean, yes, it is a very, very chalky number, but I mean, all signs are pointing to, you know, this is probably not gonna be his win. It's gonna be a Ganassi or it's gonna be a Scott or it's gonna be maybe we see Lungard get his win. I don't know. Maybe Pado, who knows? So, ⁓ okay. Any other lines that I'm missing? I've just been on Caesar's this entire time. So anything else there? ⁓ yeah, let's go. @iN8Rodgers: There were some group bets. ⁓ It looks like there was one where people, it looks like they bet VK and his number kind of came down, VK has been good here, but it's his first time in the Huncos car on a road course. And so I took the Indy bet special of going two guys in a group with Armstrong and Rossi. I like Armstrong more, obviously. He was at plus 350 and Rossi at five to one. ⁓ little 50 % chance there of him clearing Erickson and VK. @f1capper: Actually, when I look at group A, which is Kyle Kirkwood, Scott McLaughlin, Will Power, and Joseph Newgarden, that would almost be better to take than his top three. Because if he gets top three, he's beating Kirkwood, Newgarden, and Will Power. Indy_Bet: Yeah, I was wondering if my groups at Hard Rock were different, but that group you just explained, I tweeted that out. Yes, McLaughlin in that group. And then did I hear you was is the group you just described, Ericsson Armstrong, VK Rossi. Yeah, so I like obviously like Armstrong in that group, but yeah, I do like the. @f1capper: Yes. Indy_Bet: Take two at three to one or better and lock in profit. A strategy there, fade Erickson, fade Rossi, take Erickson. I actually think you could just, ⁓ I did bet that group and I did only Armstrong. Now you're making me think I should have done in my other little strategy, but. @iN8Rodgers: No, this is the first time I've done... I wanted to play a little safer this time, but yeah. Indy_Bet: But yeah, okay, so I didn't know the Hard Rocks, sometimes they mess with the groups, but yes, I agree. McLaughlin in group A, or for me it's group A, and that other group, I like Armstrong. He's got good history at this track. I think he could be a sneaky top three, top five car. Ganassi knows, he'll have Palos set up. @f1capper: Nice. Love it. What else is on Hard Rock? Anything else? Or is it just groups and nothing? Indy_Bet: No, no, pillows plus 150 McGlocken outright sucks five to one Can't date like I said, that's why I got angry And went on my bed outright rant @f1capper: Yeah, one day. One day we'll get a laundry list. Indy_Bet: But that's it. That's all they have outright in those three groups at the moment. They'll start to copy other people as the day goes on tomorrow. So they'll put top threes up and I'll try to grab them before qualifying and then we'll see how qualifying happens and then maybe they put lines up. I'll let Mech heckle them on Twitter until they do it. @f1capper: I just know what's gonna happen if I do a pato top three and I post that he's just going to ream me with it. I mean, the number, my mind like, yes, I agree with you guys. just, I have PTSD with it. And I just like, I don't know if I can do this. Even with Scott, that's exactly what I'm thinking. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah. Save him for ovals ⁓ @f1capper: I have some plays, so I may not even do the top threes until after we see who's in, and I'm willing to chalk to a top three once we have confirmation of the grid. And that's probably where I might lean, because at this point, like the number for plus 150 on Scott, it doesn't make sense, especially now that I'm seeing it with the group A, right? Indy_Bet: Yeah, that's lower than I saw in the twos. So you can wait. If it gets under the two ones, just might as well wait for qualifying. It's not going to be. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah, I think so. I think that's what I'm gonna do. got enough. I got enough right now going. So, all right, well, let's shift over to ⁓ Grid Rivals. I'm trying to pull up the app now. There was a lot we did in, I'm a little upset though, I'm not gonna lie, because when I saw them pop up, I was like, ⁓ I was at work and I was trying to put in lines and I really like, the first thing I went to, which is funny out of all the drivers, I was like, where's Seagull? We're a seagull and I was like, yeah, it's 17 and a half. Let's go. Let's go better. Um, I know that sounds crazy to probably a lot of folks like why are you doing that? I'm like, well, he's actually pretty decent here. So I just missed out because I put him on a card with lungard and ericsson wars, which i'm fine with the ericsson wars. I should have just kept it ericsson wars seven and a half and seagull 17 and a half, but I combined it with lungard. I'm like shit. This is gonna be the card that just goes bust because Lungard gets fifth place or something. So that was one of my cards. But let's have you guys talk about your grid rival plays. @iN8Rodgers: You start, mate. Indy_Bet: Yeah, I mean, for me, it's just kind of like, hey, everything we talked about, like, I'd be looking to go under on, know, the lines will move after qualifying. So Pado, McLaughlin, Palau, Armstrong, you know, all those would be my unders, but I always like to play the worst on here. If we don't have cautions, like you can get some good worse numbers, but I mean, everybody I didn't mention is my work, like Grosjean worse, all the Andretti drivers worse. I don't really want to mess around with Joseph or Dixon. ⁓ Power worse than five and a half. ⁓ And then going down the board, like fade the crap teams. ⁓ You know, quick note on Siegel. This is his second favorite track, he told me. ⁓ Got to, I got some, I asked him, cornered him at the Vegas F1 race, had an espresso with him and pumped him for IndyCar information. And he said, but he told me St. Pete was his favorite track and that didn't really correlate to any results. So ⁓ I don't know if that matters much, but he did say he did like Barbara a lot, but yeah, so that's really my take. I haven't made. too many bets but I'll be watching the numbers and the practice reports and then jumping in on grid rival and I'll post it online. @f1capper: Yeah, and I think a lot of the reasons why he likes this track is one, he's used to this type of flow of track. It's got the Euro feel to it. Street circuits are just a different animal. It doesn't matter how good you could be. You can always just find the wall. It's just different. So that's probably why he likes it. It brings him home, I guess, when it brings a lot of these drivers into a more comfort zone, you know, more runoff, more windy, more like they can. they don't feel afraid to get on the throttle in certain areas, get offline and they can still try to capture speed. But I did wanna kind of go to that Dixon because I have been eyeing that one. I don't think he deserves to be at six and a half, but I know this story is the time I fade him, he just becomes Superman, but he actually hasn't done shit this year. He really hasn't. So why is he getting the respect at six and a Indy_Bet: I'm with you though like the Voodoo he's got a lot of seconds here. He won on a streak of seconds. That's why He he has good track history, but yeah, I'm very happy with my I have a pretty big position in Dixon under one and a half wins I'm already down to only two wins to go for my Kirkwood under but that's okay As long as we can dodge long if we dodge long to be a long beach. I feel great But yeah, Dixon man up That's why I said Dixon and Joseph like just pass pass for me Maybe needs got some other insight @f1capper: Tempting. Tempting. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I just really struggle with races that I like Dixon in and races that I don't. I almost leave him all year long. I barely touch him in bedding. @f1capper: I might take one for the team and actually do it, because I know we all experience the same dicks and pain, whether you're backing him or you're for him. But my mind is saying he's not going to be in the, it's gonna be crowded at that six and a half. So I'm gonna go back and look, but I might take one for the team and just do it just because on principle, I might do it. But if you are listening, If you wanna go in on it, I endorse it. But just to recap, so all of us like the 17 and a half Seagull, but it's now since then bumped to 16 and a half. Do you still take them at 16 and a half? My lean is yes, but let's hear what y'all's thoughts are. @iN8Rodgers: I think if you are you need to do it now because I think there's a good chance he qualifies top 12, Advancing around two. No, yeah, that would be a weekend. He was like seventh or ninth, I don't know where he started last year. So he was almost there actually. We'll see. That might be a point where you fade him and you find the middle. @f1capper: 6. Okay. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I like them this week. 16 gets a little tighter, but... @f1capper: I also did Willpower Wars. That scares me a little bit, but I think again, goes back to the Andretti. He had a hell of a drive, but I think it was just all of Andretti was just phenomenal during the Arlington GP. Erickson, right? He pulled position. Kirkwood won and power spun and still ended up in third. I think that just, that was an outlier for them in terms of how much pace they had now that we're coming back to reality. We don't have to beat a dead horse on the Andretti. I think we get a different willpower here, even though he's had success at this place. ⁓ I think five and a half is just too high, too high. @iN8Rodgers: only way I see Andretti improving here is if they use their technical lines with coin who's better here than they are almost and steal from them or if Rzuzki and Power just have that much that they can turn around and weaken which is kind of hard you do think for next year where you start to see these big dividends for Andretti of Ron Rzuzki being over there with Power @f1capper: Mm-hmm. Yeah. Well, you still have an opportunity for Pato at four and a half and Lundgaard at four and a half. I know we were on the four and a half Lundgaard better. Palo's at two, Armstrong's at nine and a half. think, did he open at nine and a half? I can't even remember where it was 10, so I missed that @iN8Rodgers: think it was 10. I didn't take them though for some reason because that's my guy. @f1capper: Yeah, me neither. I know. It's kind of crazy. Joseph Newgarden was another one that we said we were going to go worse. You said it. He's just not been the same guy here. Don't need to rehash that. ⁓ The other was Kiffin Simpson. I am now on the, and I've been like that since the start of season, but I think I'm in a total just, I'm done with. even thinking about the guy and he's only gonna be worse from here on out for me. I just do not see him being that, he just can't do well. It just seems like probably one or two tracks he might do well. He's just not been doing great. What do you think? It's 15 and a half though. it's, we're teetering. Yeah. Indy_Bet: lean worse he falls in the always lean worse category for me @f1capper: Yeah. Okay. That's another one. ⁓ @iN8Rodgers: I took Colette worse than 16.5. Foit, ⁓ I think they've had like maybe six times they've done better than 15th in the hybrid on road courses. So I kind of lean Ferrucci and Colette worse, but the reason I with Colette is because Ferrucci kind of has that. race day kind of grid out advancing you know five or six spots in the race and ending up like 12th or 13th so Colette first race here in the big car ⁓ took him worse with the seagull better @f1capper: Call me crazy. I have nothing, it's just nothing but vibes on this one, but I think Mick does better than 15 and a half. I think maybe he gets the 15 minimum, but I think he does better. Am I crazy? Call me crazy. @iN8Rodgers: Now. Indy_Bet: Ray Hall's got decent pace here. @iN8Rodgers: But I went worse because I would think that Ray Hall and Foster would beat him here. And so. @f1capper: That's the only reason why I haven't done anything is because Foster's at 14 and a half right on that spot and he's, I feel like he could also do well. But I think this is maybe a better track for Mick to just kind of get a little bit more acclimated again. It's more of a track that he should be familiarized with pretty quick. And he starts getting into a flow as the weekend goes on. And that's why I'm okay with being patient with it. But at the same time, I almost feel like, well, maybe he does qualify in like P13, P12, and now we're stuck at a different line. Yeah, my lean, I haven't touched it yet, but my lean would be potentially doing better on it, just purely off vibes. So, all right. So we talked through a lot. That was good, good conversations. ⁓ one last one, Rasmussen. How are we not doing worse on this one? 14 and a half. Indy_Bet: I bet that, just a second ago. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I don't think ECR is as bad on road courses as they are on street courses. Rasmus' stats get a little better on road courses. And ECR won here. It's been several years now, them and VK. @f1capper: You said that you did. Okay. @iN8Rodgers: or no, VK didn't end up winning, did he? Pato passed him, but he put on pole and then he finished second, I believe, but ⁓ ECR has been decent here, so I just left it, but yeah, I would, I don't mind fading Rasmussen a lot of the times if it's not at oval. @f1capper: Let's do a pod play. What would be one of our, that ones that we've already done quite a bit, which one right now that we just talked about, you would say that's one and then let's pick just two card. Let's do two card. Indy_Bet: See you go. @f1capper: 16 and half, better. Yeah, okay, okay. Indy_Bet: Good one. @iN8Rodgers: I liked fading Joseph at that number or fading Kirkwood really, if you... Indy_Bet: Kirkwood. @f1capper: Kirkwood at four. See, I already have a lot of Kirkwood. Okay, tell you what. This is a pod play. So I'm going based off our collective minds. So we'll do Siegel 16 and half and Kirkwood four. It gives us the opportunity for anyone to ride or die with me on this one. So let's do it. And then I can't help myself. I gotta do that Rasmussen. I've just been eyeing that one for some time and I'm like, why haven't I pushed send on this? I'm gonna do Rasmussen and, oops. Jesus, this app is kinda glitchy these days. What's going on? Rasmussen and VK? Do I do VK 12 and a half or should I do a war with that Colette? Indy_Bet: would divorce with Colette. DK was racy at St. Pete. @f1capper: Okay, it's in. Yeah, he was very... Well, I wanted to do ⁓ better. Tell you what, we're gonna make this one a fun one. We're gonna do a three card and we're gonna put VK in there too. Boom. Indy_Bet: different. There you go. @f1capper: Cool, all right, any last thoughts? Anything, did we miss anything? Eliminator Pool, if you're listening, make sure you be ready for that. ⁓ And then Fantasy as well. Make sure you set your lineups. I don't have anything else. We talked through a lot. It was good stuff. @iN8Rodgers: ⁓ yeah, the Kiffin-Simpson penalty just buried a couple guys, one point less, that had them in there. ⁓ throwing a wrench in the standings there. @f1capper: Nice. Nice. I like it. I need it. Thanks to VK and Phoenix ruining my freaking season almost, I think. I got a long way to go. I think next year I might have to change up my strategy and just go with it without you think. Don't save the guys. I don't know. I know and that's why that was my strategy going in was Indy_Bet: Gotta use them all eventually. @iN8Rodgers: It's hard. @f1capper: Let's, I mean, he looked good. It's just unfortunate. He was the one guy that wrecked with Palo. There was part of me that was like, do I do new garden, new track? Let me just try someone else. So yeah, it'll be different next year. All right, well guys, it was fun. It's a pleasure. Get into the discord again. You get. up to the minute, up to the second, whenever lines are dropped. You can find us in the IndyCar chat, it's free. We also have the paddock pass for F1, which will give you all the data, insights, all the tipsters as well. So come in, you get a free seven day trial if you sign up. So I know we got a race this weekend in Japan that kicks off tomorrow night. So you can use the seven day trial for that. All right. I appreciate it guys and we'll see you this weekend. Indy_Bet: Good