Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NBA MVP Best Bets w/Jason Timpf and Matt Moore

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NBA MVP Best Bets w/Jason Timpf and Matt Moore · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites
1:41
Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chat Melman,
1:46
Speaker 1: Chief content Officer of the Action Network Action Packed Show. Today,
1:54
Speaker 1: in a few minutes, Matt Moore, Action Networks Award winning
2:00
Speaker 1: senior analyst covering the NBA, is going to join us,
2:04
Speaker 1: one of the original bloggers about NBA analytics that he
2:07
Speaker 1: has evolved into a massive column one of the best
2:11
Speaker 1: sourced reporters in the NBA. He's gonna be joined by
2:15
Speaker 1: Jason timp Coast of the Lakers Tonight podcast, which is
2:20
Speaker 1: a new member of the Volume family, and no one's
2:25
Speaker 1: ever done badly talking about the Lakers in any forum whatsoever.
2:30
Speaker 1: If you said to me, hey, chat, what is your
2:33
Speaker 1: friend Colin Coward going to talk about during the NFL offseason,
2:36
Speaker 1: I would say, he's going to talk about the draft,
2:39
Speaker 1: NFL draft, NFL free agency, and he's gonna talk about
2:42
Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Lakers. Even if the Lakers are out
2:45
Speaker 1: of the playoffs, he's gonna be talking about what do
2:46
Speaker 1: the Lakers have to do to get back into the
2:48
Speaker 1: playoffs next year? So we're gonna be glad to have Jason.
2:52
Speaker 1: But first, enough of my jibber jabber. Simon Hunter is
2:55
Speaker 1: on a world tour and for people who might see
2:57
Speaker 1: these videos or see what we're doing on the YouTube
2:59
Speaker 1: Action Network, check it out. He's sitting on a freaking
3:02
Speaker 1: balcony in Mexico, a week after he was in Cuba.
3:08
Speaker 1: What the freak, dude, professional, better explain yourself, Coloma stash Chat.
3:14
Speaker 1: I've been all over Chat. I'm a little worn out
3:16
Speaker 1: from the sun. People probably think I've been drinking. I'm not.
3:18
Speaker 1: I'm so Ryan burned to a crisp because I'm a
3:21
Speaker 1: British white guy on the equator, so I put sunscreen on,
3:25
Speaker 1: but I still got burned. It's great, buddy, I mean,
3:27
Speaker 1: life is good. I tell people all the time. If
3:29
Speaker 1: you can go four no on sides and totals in
3:32
Speaker 1: the super Bowl and go four and one on your
3:35
Speaker 1: best prof bets, you too can travel the world for
3:38
Speaker 1: three to four weeks. So that's that's all it takes
3:41
Speaker 1: in life. Yet, but I always tell you chat my
3:43
Speaker 1: goal in life is to fail up to success. And
3:46
Speaker 1: boy am I failing down here hitting on Argentinian and
3:49
Speaker 1: Brazilian women. I'm trying my best, buddy, but i keep
3:52
Speaker 1: striking up. I guess what, I got a lot more
3:54
Speaker 1: weeks down here, so eventually my hit a home run. Hopefully,
3:57
Speaker 1: explain to me what's going on. Happened? We recorded our
4:01
Speaker 1: last podcast a week ago Monday. So you said to
4:04
Speaker 1: me and Matt Mitchell, Hey, I'm going to be going
4:06
Speaker 1: on vacation, but I'll still be around for the podcast.
4:09
Speaker 1: But you like, we're secretive about where you were going
4:12
Speaker 1: or how long you'd be gone. And I'm like, all right,
4:15
Speaker 1: I'm going to Cleveland, so have fun. And yet last
4:19
Speaker 1: week you were aware I did. I did stop off
4:21
Speaker 1: in Cuba, but I mean that's like a long, long story. Well,
4:25
Speaker 1: and then I just went there for a couple of coffee.
4:27
Speaker 1: I did like a night there, then flew out of
4:30
Speaker 1: Havana to where I'm at right now, at Cosumo, the
4:32
Speaker 1: island off the coast of Mexico. It's their biggest island.
4:35
Speaker 1: So it's the Caribbean's by like Cancoon, It's it's it's
4:38
Speaker 1: Mexico's version of Madi Gras, which is like pretty wild.
4:42
Speaker 1: So it pretty much starts in like two days and
4:44
Speaker 1: it goes for a week here. So it's exactly what
4:46
Speaker 1: you think it is, like New Orleans, but it's the
4:48
Speaker 1: Mexican version, so a lot more tequila, a lot more
4:51
Speaker 1: beautiful women from South America, and uh, let's fat Americans.
4:55
Speaker 1: So I gotta tell your joll it's the good life
4:58
Speaker 1: down here. I mean it's it's grey. Is how beautiful
5:00
Speaker 1: this place is? And how long are you staying there for?
5:03
Speaker 1: I'm supposed to go to Costa Rica, um, but I
5:06
Speaker 1: don't want to leave this place now that I'm here
5:08
Speaker 1: because it's so sweet. So I'm either going to Costa
5:10
Speaker 1: Rica next week or the week after or I'll come
5:12
Speaker 1: back to America and start doing like draft prep in
5:15
Speaker 1: like a week or two. But I'm in no rush,
5:17
Speaker 1: Like I'm definitely gonna be dining for the next two weeks.
5:20
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, you're working on a fucking basement in Milwaukee.
5:23
Speaker 1: I'm working on the third floor and fucking Hertford, Connecticut.
5:27
Speaker 1: And this guy he's just living in Mexico for three weeks. Yeah,
5:31
Speaker 1: school's close today in Milwaukee for an ice storm. But
5:34
Speaker 1: Simon's busy gal vending around on the equator. I hope
5:37
Speaker 1: he's having the time of his life. He's having fun
5:39
Speaker 1: for all three of us. Chad, he deserves it. You
5:42
Speaker 1: know what, Thank you. It was a long season. It
5:45
Speaker 1: was a long season. You did great. We crushed the
5:48
Speaker 1: super Bowl, we crushed the playoffs. As we discussed now, Simon,
5:53
Speaker 1: because I know what your heart. You are a gambler,
5:55
Speaker 1: and I know that whenever we have guests on the podcast,
5:58
Speaker 1: I know that you read everything on the Action Network.
6:00
Speaker 1: I know that you look at the app every day,
6:02
Speaker 1: so I know that you are always making bets outside
6:05
Speaker 1: of the NFL. So we're gonna have a big reset
6:08
Speaker 1: the conversation for the second half of the NBA season
6:11
Speaker 1: with our very good buddy Matt Moore with our new
6:15
Speaker 1: friend Jason timf Fellas. Matt, Good to see you. How
6:20
Speaker 1: are you doing well? Man? I managed to uh avoid
6:24
Speaker 1: Cleveland this time. UM. Love All Star weekends, but did
6:28
Speaker 1: not think that this was necessarily the best the best
6:30
Speaker 1: one to go to for for various reasons. But glad
6:34
Speaker 1: this season has been really, really fascinating. I think that
6:37
Speaker 1: the I don't remember a time when there's been this
6:39
Speaker 1: much up in the air as we leave All Star
6:42
Speaker 1: break in terms of where the value is at for
6:44
Speaker 1: the title for m v P. There's just like a
6:46
Speaker 1: lot of stuff on the board. So it's gonna be
6:48
Speaker 1: a fun second half of the season to talk about.
6:50
Speaker 1: Jason uh host of the Lakers to Night podcast, new
6:54
Speaker 1: member the Volume Network. Who the hell are you? Where
6:57
Speaker 1: do you come from? Why do you have a podcast?
6:59
Speaker 1: And why all of a sudden is Colin Cowherd putting
7:02
Speaker 1: it on his network other than the fact it's a
7:03
Speaker 1: Lakers podcast. Well, I'm pretty close to Mr Simon. I'm
7:08
Speaker 1: in Tucson, Arizona, so I'm I could hop in a
7:11
Speaker 1: car and be down there relatively soon. Um, that said,
7:13
Speaker 1: I wish I was in Mexico. UM, I appreciate you
7:15
Speaker 1: guys having me on. First of all, thank you so much. UM.
7:18
Speaker 1: To be honest, Twitter started is just like an outlet
7:21
Speaker 1: for me to talk about basketball because my wife and
7:23
Speaker 1: all my friends weren't really all that into it. And
7:25
Speaker 1: then that kind of spawned into a podcast, and really
7:28
Speaker 1: what took off for us was postgame coverage. There just
7:31
Speaker 1: wasn't a lot of options for immediately after a game
7:33
Speaker 1: to get analysis of games, and so that was kind
7:36
Speaker 1: of our little niche that we found. You know, the
7:38
Speaker 1: guys at the volume, they're a huge believer and you know,
7:40
Speaker 1: always on and being it being you know, the instant
7:43
Speaker 1: reaction that's on all platforms, and so that was kind
7:46
Speaker 1: of the target that I went after, was instant reactions,
7:49
Speaker 1: quick videos. Even if I didn't have time for a podcast,
7:52
Speaker 1: I try to record something quick on my phone and
7:53
Speaker 1: just trying to stay you know, the first analysis that
7:57
Speaker 1: was out there. That was kind of what allowed us
7:58
Speaker 1: to find our little foothole. But the gist of it,
8:01
Speaker 1: you know, my goals with the show or to cover
8:03
Speaker 1: the whole leak Lakers Tonight is a pathway towards that that,
8:06
Speaker 1: you know, kind of had two Lakers focus, but that
8:08
Speaker 1: is the end game is to eventually provide that deep
8:11
Speaker 1: dive into the entire NBA. All right, well, look there's
8:14
Speaker 1: a lot of NBA to discuss on. Massive NBA fan, Matt.
8:18
Speaker 1: I was in Cleveland, arrived just before a blizzard on
8:22
Speaker 1: Thursday night. It lasted deep into Friday, canceled. My poor
8:26
Speaker 1: kid who was going to join me a Saturday and
8:28
Speaker 1: then Sunday. His flights on both days were canceled. Getting
8:32
Speaker 1: into Cleveland to attend the festivities those nights, uh so,
8:36
Speaker 1: definitely was a challenge weatherwise. But for this conversation, I
8:42
Speaker 1: do think the way they do the All Star Game
8:44
Speaker 1: now is amazing and that fourth quarter is phenomenal. Is
8:46
Speaker 1: the best pickup basketball you'll ever see. And Lebron James
8:50
Speaker 1: scored the game winning shot. So they are I think
8:54
Speaker 1: that the Lakers heading into the All Star break were
8:58
Speaker 1: ninth in the Western Conference, they would be in a
9:03
Speaker 1: playing game. They have to win two games. Jason, you're
9:06
Speaker 1: the Lakers expert. Is this a team that like can
9:10
Speaker 1: get there? Is this a team that they didn't make
9:13
Speaker 1: a move at the All Star at the trade deadline? Um.
9:17
Speaker 1: Lebron very specifically said he thought Sam Presty was the
9:20
Speaker 1: m v P of the Oklahoma City Thunder because of
9:24
Speaker 1: moves they've made and drafts they've done. He wore a
9:28
Speaker 1: are he commented on less needs uh funk the pics
9:32
Speaker 1: T shirt from the Rams because they went all in
9:34
Speaker 1: with the Lakers mindset. Right now, aren't we buying the Lakers?
9:37
Speaker 1: It's a total ship show, for lack of a better term,
9:40
Speaker 1: when you end up this far below five hundred Lebron
9:43
Speaker 1: James and Anthony Davis on your team, it's impossible to
9:45
Speaker 1: look at one specific thing. So it would take me
9:47
Speaker 1: a half hour to break down all the different ways
9:49
Speaker 1: that this goes That this went wrong the easiest and
9:52
Speaker 1: simplest way that I could describe it, And it's been
9:54
Speaker 1: a lesson for me as a basketball fan and as
9:56
Speaker 1: a basketball analyst to to learn this season, but just
10:00
Speaker 1: important it is, especially in the modern NBA without spaced
10:02
Speaker 1: out the game, is for you to have role players
10:04
Speaker 1: who can keep people in front, especially on the perimeter,
10:08
Speaker 1: and that are willing to do the dirty work. And
10:10
Speaker 1: I vastly, grossly underestimated that coming into the season because
10:13
Speaker 1: I didn't love the off season at all, hated the
10:15
Speaker 1: Russ steal. I was begging for them to sign a
10:17
Speaker 1: bigger wing. I thought it was asinine that they thought
10:20
Speaker 1: Trevor Ariza and Carmel and Anthony were enough for them
10:22
Speaker 1: on the wing to cover for all of the roles
10:25
Speaker 1: that you know, Kyle Kuzman, Alex Crusoe and KCP filled.
10:28
Speaker 1: But that said, I was like, Hey, we got Lebron
10:30
Speaker 1: in a d and these two when they're on the
10:32
Speaker 1: floor and they can finish a game together. In the
10:34
Speaker 1: previous two season one nearly eighty percent of their games,
10:37
Speaker 1: they were a devastating duo. And it's gotten so bad
10:42
Speaker 1: that this year's Lakers team with Lebron James and Anthony
10:45
Speaker 1: Davis on the floor has performed worse by net raving
10:49
Speaker 1: than last year's Lakers team did with Lebron and Anthony
10:51
Speaker 1: Davis off the floor. And so it's been a great
10:54
Speaker 1: wake up call for like kind of a shift the
10:56
Speaker 1: league is taking away from, you know, how dominant star
10:59
Speaker 1: power can be. And I've learned a lot in the
11:02
Speaker 1: in the process that said, simply put, they do not
11:05
Speaker 1: have enough talent to win this year. Even if Lebron
11:08
Speaker 1: and Anthony Davis play at the absolute peak of their games,
11:10
Speaker 1: so they would have to hit an absolute home run
11:13
Speaker 1: in the buyout market, or some sort of weird late
11:16
Speaker 1: season leap from th h T or something along those
11:20
Speaker 1: lines to have any chance. And so I think that
11:23
Speaker 1: is why it's turned into such a passive, aggressive media
11:25
Speaker 1: fist fight. Is I think they see the riding on
11:28
Speaker 1: the wall and they know this thing, this particular season
11:31
Speaker 1: is pretty much over and I wouldn't even be surprised
11:34
Speaker 1: if it gets worse here over the course of the
11:35
Speaker 1: next month, a couple of bad losses until you start
11:38
Speaker 1: seeing some quit show up. I'm very pessimistic about how
11:42
Speaker 1: the next couple of months are going to go on
11:43
Speaker 1: that front. All Right, Matt Moore, I want you to
11:49
Speaker 1: respond to Jason on the Lakers, who are by the
11:53
Speaker 1: way at forty one to win the NBA title. But
11:57
Speaker 1: we're also gonna say we spend too much time talking
11:59
Speaker 1: about out a team at one. Is there a Phoenix
12:02
Speaker 1: Suns like team out there? So I think here's the
12:08
Speaker 1: reason that I'm not completely out on the Lakers. Um,
12:14
Speaker 1: I'm not saying like, look, if you're like, I'm gonna
12:16
Speaker 1: put a big bet in I NBA team to win
12:18
Speaker 1: the title. I don't think that the Lakers are in
12:20
Speaker 1: the top eight options at forty two to one. If
12:23
Speaker 1: you're like, I want to take a flyer, I will
12:25
Speaker 1: say this, They're gonna be in the plan. The record
12:29
Speaker 1: is good enough, they're good. They're gonna make the plan,
12:31
Speaker 1: and then they'll face a Clippers team that may have
12:33
Speaker 1: Kawhi Leonard may not. Tyler said it probably not may
12:36
Speaker 1: have what Paul George. But if Kauai is not coming
12:38
Speaker 1: back and not they win that one, they're in the
12:41
Speaker 1: seventh spot. Let's say the Warriors hold on and they
12:43
Speaker 1: get the two seeds. Okay, this is the Warriors are
12:46
Speaker 1: better this year, no question, there are a lot better
12:48
Speaker 1: than they were last year. This is still fundamentally the
12:50
Speaker 1: same core Andrew wigg and Steph Curry, Draymond Green that
12:53
Speaker 1: the Lakers beat last year. In the plan. They beat
12:55
Speaker 1: them last year. They have the size to counter them.
12:57
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis is a problem for Draymond Green. All right,
13:00
Speaker 1: get through the two seeds. Okay, now you're taking on
13:02
Speaker 1: the Memphis Grizzlies, inexperienced team, not well built for a
13:05
Speaker 1: playoff run. There in that spot, then you got the Sons,
13:08
Speaker 1: who basically it all comes down to, is Chris Paul
13:12
Speaker 1: going to be healthy? Like that's a lot of it.
13:13
Speaker 1: The Sons are a step ahead of everybody, like they
13:16
Speaker 1: by any sort of analysis based off of making the
13:19
Speaker 1: finals last year, being playoff proven, and then how they
13:21
Speaker 1: perform this year, the Sons are a step ahead. But
13:24
Speaker 1: if Chris Paul is not healthy at age thirty eight,
13:27
Speaker 1: then I think there is a window here for them
13:30
Speaker 1: to get knocked off. And if the Lakers have that
13:32
Speaker 1: sequence happened for them, which is pretty reasonable, there's a
13:35
Speaker 1: doorway here. The problem is Lebron's comments this weekend are
13:39
Speaker 1: like that's disastrous because that's basically Lebron like setting up.
13:42
Speaker 1: It's not my fault, y'all did this. I'm out, And
13:45
Speaker 1: like that's concerning on a number of levels, this has
13:48
Speaker 1: been like building. There's just like a lot of conversation
13:50
Speaker 1: in the league circles about tension within the Lakers, about
13:53
Speaker 1: tension between Clutch and the front office and the ownership group.
13:57
Speaker 1: It's bad, So I can't feel good about it. If
13:59
Speaker 1: you're asking about who in the in the league has
14:02
Speaker 1: like the best value in terms of winning the NBA
14:05
Speaker 1: title that can make that kind of a run. I
14:07
Speaker 1: don't think it's anybody that's like outside of the realm
14:09
Speaker 1: of experience. I think you look at a team like
14:12
Speaker 1: the Suns were there last year, they have to be
14:14
Speaker 1: the least that good to make a Son's type run.
14:17
Speaker 1: And I think that there's a lot of options for
14:19
Speaker 1: teams that can make that run. But I still look
14:20
Speaker 1: at the Milwaukee Bucks at plus six fifty, defending champion
14:24
Speaker 1: Brook Lopez. They still feel like he's gonna get back
14:26
Speaker 1: in March. They've proven how they match up versus various teams.
14:30
Speaker 1: They've proven they can beat the Suns to meet. Milwaukee
14:33
Speaker 1: still the best value on the board at plus six fifty,
14:35
Speaker 1: but I can make it an argument for a bunch
14:37
Speaker 1: of teams, which is why I think a lot of
14:38
Speaker 1: it's gonna come down to what do the seatings look like?
14:42
Speaker 1: What does the Brackett look like? When we actually get
14:44
Speaker 1: to April. Simon, I know you want to jump in
14:46
Speaker 1: because you have m v P questions. I have a
14:49
Speaker 1: follow up for um, Matt and Jason if you want
14:52
Speaker 1: to happen here too. Uh, it's interesting you say the
14:56
Speaker 1: Bucks to me plus six fifties. So right now, the
14:59
Speaker 1: Suns are the Sons and the Warriors are both about
15:01
Speaker 1: plus four ten. The Nets are plus six plus six hundred,
15:06
Speaker 1: the Bucks plus six fifty. Then the Sixers right behind
15:09
Speaker 1: that plus seven hundred. So you look at the deal
15:12
Speaker 1: that uh Daryl Morey made for James Harden, and you
15:16
Speaker 1: don't think this makes the Sixers a prohibitive favorite coming
15:21
Speaker 1: out of the East, ahead of the Nets or ahead
15:24
Speaker 1: of the Bucks. No, you know, I think one we
15:27
Speaker 1: have to do which level, which hardened we get out
15:30
Speaker 1: of this? Right? Do we get the two thousand and
15:33
Speaker 1: nineteen Harden for Houston that was one of the best players,
15:35
Speaker 1: best offensive players we've ever seen in the NBA. Do
15:37
Speaker 1: we get the version last year who had some injury
15:41
Speaker 1: issues but we're still pretty good as a complementary player.
15:44
Speaker 1: Do we get the Strip Club bouncing good time having
15:51
Speaker 1: James Harden of this season, who's still had a hamstring
15:54
Speaker 1: problem for almost over a year. Which version are we
15:57
Speaker 1: gonna get a Harden? And I don't have a lot
15:58
Speaker 1: of confidence, especially with the miles that are on hardened.
16:02
Speaker 1: I think that that's a real concern. I think losing
16:04
Speaker 1: Seth Curry is going to hurt them more than they realize.
16:07
Speaker 1: They need a secondary ball handler, somebody else who can
16:09
Speaker 1: create I like Tyres Maxie. The other thing is, when
16:12
Speaker 1: you look at it, there's a bunch of I think
16:13
Speaker 1: issues with the Sixers and how they match up with
16:15
Speaker 1: teams with Miami, how they match up with teams like Milwaukee,
16:18
Speaker 1: how they match up with various teams. There's a path
16:21
Speaker 1: for the Sixers, I think, but we've also got a
16:23
Speaker 1: combination of doc Rivers with multiple three one collapses, Joel
16:27
Speaker 1: and Beach still can't handle a double team in the playoffs,
16:30
Speaker 1: and James Harden's guy's own history of playoff collapses. So
16:33
Speaker 1: I can't buy in on the Sixers. I still like
16:35
Speaker 1: the Bucks a lot in that matchup, despite the sixers
16:37
Speaker 1: big win before the All Star break, though, Sorry, you
16:42
Speaker 1: would agree, Matt, that's that's the best move they could
16:45
Speaker 1: have made for Ben's with Ben Simmons like, oh yeah,
16:47
Speaker 1: there's no there's no other piece out there that fits
16:50
Speaker 1: what we need, which is again, sorry, people, I don't
16:53
Speaker 1: mean to say we've I am a Sixers fan. We're horrible.
16:55
Speaker 1: Every year we choke in the second round. I do
16:58
Speaker 1: not like James Harden at all like style of play.
17:01
Speaker 1: It's it's seriously one of my biggest atterns in NBA.
17:03
Speaker 1: Like as a fan, I just don't like his style.
17:06
Speaker 1: But as a Sixers fan, I just took a zero,
17:09
Speaker 1: which what Ben Simmons was, this man was literally a
17:12
Speaker 1: zero and I turned into James Harden, which he is
17:14
Speaker 1: got the miles, he's run down, but I don't know, man,
17:17
Speaker 1: if he can pull up and hit threes for us
17:20
Speaker 1: in the playoffs with Joel and beat what you talked about,
17:22
Speaker 1: no player gets doubled more in the n b A.
17:25
Speaker 1: I just think this is a really this is a
17:27
Speaker 1: sleeper team, like this is our we have too bias,
17:30
Speaker 1: we have NAXI like this is the best the Sixers
17:33
Speaker 1: are gonna have surrounding and Joel and be in my
17:35
Speaker 1: opinion because I feel like, you know, we're not gonna
17:37
Speaker 1: at a Ford a good team going forward because we
17:39
Speaker 1: have all these guys paid out, which I know this
17:41
Speaker 1: is last year for the bias, but this is really
17:43
Speaker 1: it for me as a Sixers fan. This feels like
17:45
Speaker 1: this is the only year that we can win a championship.
17:47
Speaker 1: Like it's just us in the bucks. It feels like
17:49
Speaker 1: no one else, I don't trust the nuts. I just look,
17:52
Speaker 1: I wonder where your view is on the Sixers team, Like,
17:54
Speaker 1: I know you said you don't think they can do it,
17:56
Speaker 1: but for a matchup wise, this is as good as
17:58
Speaker 1: it can get for the Sixers team. Yeah, I mean,
18:00
Speaker 1: I think one thing I wrote after the trade was,
18:03
Speaker 1: don't ever doubt Darryl Morey again. Ever, everyone needs be
18:06
Speaker 1: done doubting Darryl Morey. Darryl Morey runs the game, Darryl
18:08
Speaker 1: Morey for months, and we reported on this action. I
18:11
Speaker 1: reported on four different deals that they had turned down
18:14
Speaker 1: of multiple picks they offered. They when Toronto said, hey,
18:17
Speaker 1: we're interested in Ben Simmons, they said, okay, we want
18:20
Speaker 1: Fred Vanvley, Pascal Siakam, your fourth overall pick, and two
18:24
Speaker 1: more picks on top of that, and like straight faced,
18:27
Speaker 1: and everyone around the league was like, what is Darryl doing.
18:29
Speaker 1: There's no way he's gonna get returned, There's no way.
18:32
Speaker 1: And what does Darryl Morey do? He walks away with
18:35
Speaker 1: a former m v P. So it's a great deal.
18:37
Speaker 1: I will challenge you on this though. I will say this,
18:40
Speaker 1: he said that this is the best that they're gonna
18:41
Speaker 1: have wait till this summer. Like, I think next year
18:44
Speaker 1: that's gonna be the time to bet the Sixers give
18:46
Speaker 1: more a summer to be like, all right, I got Hardened,
18:48
Speaker 1: I've got MBI. Let me move to bias, let me reconfigure,
18:52
Speaker 1: get some more spacing, because right now this team is
18:54
Speaker 1: really low on three point shooting. Harden makes up for
18:57
Speaker 1: a lot of it, but it's all off the bounce, right.
19:00
Speaker 1: I think when you look at what they're gonna need
19:01
Speaker 1: to space around Hardened and mdeed, they need one more guide.
19:04
Speaker 1: They don't have it there. Three point rate is still
19:06
Speaker 1: low this season. We'll see what it looks like after Harden.
19:09
Speaker 1: I'm open to being wrong, but I can't get there
19:11
Speaker 1: yet with this team. But I do think the summer
19:14
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Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. You here's what I love about
21:03
Speaker 1: the NBA. The drama is so high school, and it's
21:08
Speaker 1: so and it's so like something every fan connects to.
21:13
Speaker 1: There's a difference in the way NFL fans talk about
21:15
Speaker 1: the NFL and the drama in the NFL and the
21:18
Speaker 1: way NBA fans talk about it. NBA fans love it,
21:23
Speaker 1: they absorb it, they want to talk about it, they
21:25
Speaker 1: get excited about it. It's sort of tickles them a
21:28
Speaker 1: little bit. Right. Then the NFL people get mad about
21:31
Speaker 1: the drama they have, like they get piste off. It
21:33
Speaker 1: gets political. NBA. It's like, does Lebron hate MJ? Does
21:38
Speaker 1: MJ hate Lebron because they didn't adapt at the anniversary
21:43
Speaker 1: gathering the players, Jason Tim, give us your take on
21:46
Speaker 1: Lebron and MJ. Well, first of all, really quickly, I
21:49
Speaker 1: I hate the drama in the NBA. It's funny because
21:52
Speaker 1: I was actually joking around some of the guys from
21:54
Speaker 1: the volume this morning, like like this last couple of
21:57
Speaker 1: weeks for me has been wild because it's been so
21:59
Speaker 1: much drama, um and I got into this for the basketball,
22:02
Speaker 1: and I cannot wait for things to kind of switch
22:06
Speaker 1: back to the basketball because that's why I do this,
22:08
Speaker 1: you know. And and if there's one silver lining and
22:10
Speaker 1: the Lakers getting eliminated early, it will be that. But
22:14
Speaker 1: but as far as the Lebron and MJ thing, I
22:15
Speaker 1: actually was talking about this with some people on Twitter
22:18
Speaker 1: this morning. I think I think the biggest thing working
22:20
Speaker 1: against Lebron is MJ's cool factor. You know. It's like
22:24
Speaker 1: it's like the difference between being one of the Avengers
22:28
Speaker 1: and being fanos. Like MJ was so dominant relative to
22:32
Speaker 1: his peers that there's like an aura that surrounds him
22:36
Speaker 1: like a mystique, and he like he he almost seems
22:39
Speaker 1: like a superhero. Whereas Lebron, while being very clearly the
22:43
Speaker 1: best player of his era and there is a decent
22:46
Speaker 1: size gap between him and the next guy, it's at
22:49
Speaker 1: least like you can have a conversation like Warrior fans
22:51
Speaker 1: will look at with the straight face and be like,
22:53
Speaker 1: I think Steph was better, you know, Like Katie fans
22:55
Speaker 1: will look at you in a straight face and say
22:57
Speaker 1: the same thing about Katie. No one was saying that
23:00
Speaker 1: about MJ and that mystique and aura I think will
23:03
Speaker 1: always hurt Lebron in the court of public opinion. That said,
23:08
Speaker 1: Lebron's case, it's a case of variety and longevity. So
23:11
Speaker 1: like you know, MJA one the same way every time.
23:15
Speaker 1: And one of the things you can point to in
23:16
Speaker 1: Lebron's career is that throughout his career from the beginning
23:19
Speaker 1: with Larry Hughes and with Dezdrinasalgaloskis too, you know, Moe
23:22
Speaker 1: Williams and Delante West, to the Heatles to the you know,
23:26
Speaker 1: Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love partnership, to then after Kyrie
23:29
Speaker 1: left two then they even had a winning record with Brandon,
23:33
Speaker 1: with Brandon, Ingram and Kuzman, all of them while Lebron
23:35
Speaker 1: was on the floor, to then the Anthony Davis partnership.
23:38
Speaker 1: Like you've seen so many different archetypes, archetypes of him too,
23:41
Speaker 1: as like you know, a swing forward to like this
23:44
Speaker 1: point forward to a guy who's played smallball center to
23:47
Speaker 1: a guy that can play point guard literally like he
23:49
Speaker 1: did for the Lakers. There's just there is no player
23:52
Speaker 1: in NBA history that has as unassailable of a winning
23:56
Speaker 1: resume in the sense that I could take any group
24:00
Speaker 1: of basketball players and put him with them, and he'll
24:03
Speaker 1: find a way to impact winning with that group. That's
24:05
Speaker 1: gonna be his case. MG's case will always be dominance,
24:09
Speaker 1: and Lebron will never ever be able to touch that
24:12
Speaker 1: level of dominance. Like six titles in eight years. That's
24:15
Speaker 1: just if we saw something like that today, we wouldn't
24:17
Speaker 1: even know how to comprehend it. Like even if Janice
24:20
Speaker 1: ended up way better than every we can't even imagine
24:22
Speaker 1: Janice doing that. Like it's just it's that's the where
24:24
Speaker 1: the mystique and the aura comes from, and I don't
24:27
Speaker 1: think Lebron will ever be able to overcome that element
24:29
Speaker 1: of it at this point in the season. You know,
24:32
Speaker 1: as we're sitting here, it sounds like everything's just wide open.
24:34
Speaker 1: I know, Joel, a lot of people have been in MVP.
24:37
Speaker 1: Do you guys have favorites, Like when you look at
24:38
Speaker 1: Vandal that you think there's value of being slept on
24:41
Speaker 1: a couple of long shots where you know a couple
24:43
Speaker 1: of these teams make a run. It feels like it's
24:46
Speaker 1: kind of anyones to grab when we know how they
24:48
Speaker 1: always want to give it to the new guys. So
24:50
Speaker 1: it definitely feels interesting look at this and be pless,
24:52
Speaker 1: like what do you thinking here, Matt. I spent more
24:54
Speaker 1: time on M v P than I do on anything
24:56
Speaker 1: else in my career. That's like the number one thing
24:57
Speaker 1: that I've I've spent time on. UM. I thought it,
25:00
Speaker 1: I got, I got to finally got to vote on
25:01
Speaker 1: it once in thousand seventeen and it was amazing, and
25:06
Speaker 1: I voted for hard in that year. I do a
25:07
Speaker 1: lot of work on it. I will go through and
25:09
Speaker 1: starting in March, and I'll watch every single possession of
25:11
Speaker 1: these guys on both ends of the floor. I think
25:13
Speaker 1: for value, I get to Nicole Yogi at plus two seventy.
25:18
Speaker 1: I think Johanna is the plus three nine. And it
25:20
Speaker 1: sounds like I'm a sixers hater, and I get that.
25:22
Speaker 1: A lot of this is if you look at the
25:25
Speaker 1: gap statistically with Janice and Yokich and then what they've
25:31
Speaker 1: done for their teams and how good they are on
25:32
Speaker 1: both sides of the floor versus m Beat and then
25:35
Speaker 1: and Beat only being two games up in the lost
25:38
Speaker 1: column on the Nuggets, I think a game up on
25:42
Speaker 1: the Bucks. To me, there's just enough variants there to
25:44
Speaker 1: where I do I think that the Nuggets commended with
25:46
Speaker 1: a better record. Yeah, the Nuggets have the twenty three
25:49
Speaker 1: easiest schedule the rest of the way, so they've got
25:51
Speaker 1: a real opportunity, especially getting Jamal Murray back, for them
25:53
Speaker 1: to make the kind of run. Tim Bontemps did an
25:56
Speaker 1: m and strawhole for m v P last week disclosure.
26:00
Speaker 1: I was one of the media members pulled for that,
26:03
Speaker 1: and he he asked, you know, for the ballot, and
26:06
Speaker 1: Yogas came away with only three fewer first place votes.
26:08
Speaker 1: And that's despite everything that's gone wrong for the Nuggets
26:11
Speaker 1: of season, no Jamal Murray the whole year, and losing
26:14
Speaker 1: MPJ within the first ten days of the season, then
26:17
Speaker 1: losing PJ Dozer, who was a real valuable role player
26:19
Speaker 1: for them, having the worst bench in the league for
26:22
Speaker 1: basically three months, and we're still at this point, and
26:26
Speaker 1: I just feel like there's this I don't think voters
26:28
Speaker 1: want to vote for Yoki. I really don't, but I
26:30
Speaker 1: do think eventually when you factor in also, and I
26:32
Speaker 1: hate to say this, but beats injury history is always
26:35
Speaker 1: gonna be a factor that's always gonna make me nervous,
26:38
Speaker 1: So eventually I do wind up thinking that yoga has value.
26:40
Speaker 1: I will say this though, like if you really want
26:42
Speaker 1: to know the key like point to get in on it.
26:46
Speaker 1: The Nuggets and the Sexes are gonna play a game
26:48
Speaker 1: in March. They're gonna play one more game, and if
26:51
Speaker 1: both players are healthy and they go into that game,
26:54
Speaker 1: the winner of that game I think secures m v
26:56
Speaker 1: P outright. I'm not even kidding. Even if the Nuggets
26:59
Speaker 1: finished with a better record, I could see if it's
27:01
Speaker 1: within a game or two, and but Joel drops forty
27:04
Speaker 1: two on Joker, I think that the NBA winds up
27:08
Speaker 1: winds up winning the MVP. That's how big I think
27:09
Speaker 1: that game is. It shouldn't be, I want to be
27:11
Speaker 1: very clear on this. Head to head matchup should not
27:13
Speaker 1: be how we determine these things. But I do think
27:15
Speaker 1: that's gonna sway enough voters. So if you want wait
27:18
Speaker 1: for that game and see what the outcome of that
27:20
Speaker 1: game is, and if Joker comes out and throws a
27:23
Speaker 1: triple double and a win, or if in Beat comes
27:25
Speaker 1: out and drops forty two, which in bad seems much
27:28
Speaker 1: more likely to get up for that game. I think
27:30
Speaker 1: it'll be still be good value. I still still think
27:32
Speaker 1: you'll get and be a good number relative to what
27:36
Speaker 1: his odds of winning will be after that game. Here's
27:38
Speaker 1: what's amazing. Lebron is having one of the best years
27:42
Speaker 1: he's ever had, and he's not even a part of
27:45
Speaker 1: the m v P conversation in any way at all.
27:49
Speaker 1: Like his odds right now, a hundred and fifty two
27:52
Speaker 1: one Lebron to win the MVP, right and Matt, It's funny,
27:58
Speaker 1: I didn't realize you were part of that strop. My
28:00
Speaker 1: kid and I were watching before the All Star break happened.
28:04
Speaker 1: We're watching the Bulls King's game and it was another
28:06
Speaker 1: game where Demard Rosen, you know, went over to thirty
28:09
Speaker 1: five points and is on this epic streak of thirty
28:13
Speaker 1: five point shooting what no one's ever done it h
28:16
Speaker 1: straight games, nine straight games, whatever, And we're debating who
28:21
Speaker 1: should be higher for m v P odds, DeMar or
28:25
Speaker 1: John morand de Mars twenty jas at twelve, and my
28:30
Speaker 1: kid looks at me and he goes dead. It's about
28:33
Speaker 1: the narrative. I'm like, dude, you don't read anything longer
28:37
Speaker 1: than a TikTok caption. How you know what the word
28:40
Speaker 1: narrative means. But to my point, like earlier, that's what
28:44
Speaker 1: makes the NBA so great is like people are so
28:46
Speaker 1: invested in the storylines in the drama. I think it's
28:49
Speaker 1: a tragedy and a travesty of justice. Matt Moore that
28:53
Speaker 1: the Bulls could end up as the number one seed
28:55
Speaker 1: in the Eastern Conference, and you're telling me that Demard
28:58
Speaker 1: Rose is not even gonna be a part of the
29:00
Speaker 1: conversation for m VP, will not be top three, will
29:04
Speaker 1: not finish top three. Um, A lot of this gets
29:07
Speaker 1: into like, here's what crazy. I think he will get
29:10
Speaker 1: some I think he will legitimately get some votes. I
29:13
Speaker 1: I'll say this, this year is shaping up to be
29:15
Speaker 1: a real outlier, and I'm debating how much to throw
29:18
Speaker 1: out kind of the work that we've done on trying
29:20
Speaker 1: to establish precedents this year. So, like I mentioned, typically
29:25
Speaker 1: when I've looked, I went back and looked at this
29:27
Speaker 1: two years ago during the hiatus when we were stuck
29:30
Speaker 1: on COVID going into the lebron Your honest debate about
29:32
Speaker 1: how often does this everyone this is the vote split?
29:36
Speaker 1: It never does. It almost never does. One player usually
29:39
Speaker 1: gets eight percent to nine of the total available votes.
29:43
Speaker 1: It's crazy how much they get, Like they get a
29:45
Speaker 1: huge percentage of the votes whenever they win. Most of
29:48
Speaker 1: the media tends to coalesce around one guy, and I
29:51
Speaker 1: don't know that's going to happen this year. I think
29:52
Speaker 1: there is gonna get some votes because people will look
29:55
Speaker 1: at the game winners and the thirty point performance. I'll
29:58
Speaker 1: say this, um, I think a lot of it with
30:00
Speaker 1: Chicago when you look at the overall UH, the voting
30:04
Speaker 1: blockcast changed, Like narrative matters. But if narrative was the
30:06
Speaker 1: only thing that matters, I think that the conversation would
30:08
Speaker 1: be like Joel versus DeMar. But that's would be the
30:10
Speaker 1: conversation right now. But the voting block has changed. You
30:13
Speaker 1: have more analysts, you have more staff guys, you have
30:16
Speaker 1: greater emphasis on knowing your stuff. For a lot of this,
30:19
Speaker 1: the voting block has changed. I think the one of
30:22
Speaker 1: the issues is just that the mar doesn't stack up
30:25
Speaker 1: numbers wise with these guys. He just doesn't. And maybe
30:29
Speaker 1: that's not fair. I'm open to that. But the exact
30:31
Speaker 1: Levine's presence on that team and how good he's been.
30:33
Speaker 1: I think you look at the overall performance of the Bulls,
30:35
Speaker 1: They've just had so many injuries and that's a big
30:37
Speaker 1: reason why. But they have kind of tailed off after
30:40
Speaker 1: extremely hot start. It's just that everyone else is kind
30:42
Speaker 1: of tailed off with them. I think the Maar is
30:44
Speaker 1: having an amazing season. He's gonna finish top five and
30:46
Speaker 1: m v P. If we could bet on over under
30:48
Speaker 1: for m VP finish, I would take him over job.
30:51
Speaker 1: But I do think that there's too many things going
30:53
Speaker 1: against him for him to outdo Joel Joker or Janice
30:57
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, Mason. So I think
31:03
Speaker 1: there's a base set of rules that everyone uses to
31:07
Speaker 1: evaluate who they think is the m v P, and
31:09
Speaker 1: that obviously is different for everybody. We don't have to
31:12
Speaker 1: dig too much into that, however, one of I think
31:14
Speaker 1: one consistent criteria across the board is we want our
31:18
Speaker 1: MVP to be someone who's considered in the conversation for
31:20
Speaker 1: best player in the league. I think that's a big
31:23
Speaker 1: part of why CP three and Devin Booker haven't gotten
31:26
Speaker 1: a lot of buzz in this department. You know. Uh,
31:29
Speaker 1: it's like we're looking at who's the best player on
31:31
Speaker 1: the best team. That's always a big part of it.
31:33
Speaker 1: You know, who's playing the best is always a big
31:35
Speaker 1: part of it. But then that third factor is usually
31:37
Speaker 1: like if we were picking teams, like who's the first pick?
31:41
Speaker 1: You know, are you in the conversation to be one
31:44
Speaker 1: of those first picks? And that's why you're gonna land
31:46
Speaker 1: on the Yokiches, the Embides, and the Curries as opposed
31:50
Speaker 1: to you know, these non traditional candidates that are on
31:52
Speaker 1: the board. That's why you're not seeing any buzz for
31:54
Speaker 1: those guys. I mean, my I keep an eye on
31:57
Speaker 1: Steph Curry because he kind of fits a traditional m
32:01
Speaker 1: VP candidacy in the sense that he is the best
32:04
Speaker 1: player on a legitimate you know, near the top seed,
32:07
Speaker 1: and he really is one strong month, like a really
32:11
Speaker 1: good shooting month, from undoing some of the statistical damage
32:14
Speaker 1: that has taken him out of the conversation. But the
32:16
Speaker 1: reality of the situation is is like he is absolutely
32:20
Speaker 1: in the conversation for best player in the world. He
32:22
Speaker 1: absolutely is the best player on the second best team
32:25
Speaker 1: in the league right now. He fits all of the
32:28
Speaker 1: criteria except for that statistical element, and so at plus
32:32
Speaker 1: twelve hundred, if the dude gets hot shoots fifty from
32:35
Speaker 1: three on fourteen attempts for twenty games, then why is
32:38
Speaker 1: he not if he finishes at you know, twenty seven
32:41
Speaker 1: points per game and right around from three, he just
32:45
Speaker 1: fits all of those traditional boxes. That said, I think,
32:48
Speaker 1: Eileen Embid, I think, you know, one of the biggest
32:51
Speaker 1: things people want to point to the Denver Nuggets is
32:53
Speaker 1: being close to them in the standings and thus kind
32:55
Speaker 1: of lobbing more you know, uh energy towards yr Kich.
32:59
Speaker 1: And I think people aren't factoring in enough how tough
33:01
Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference is. You know, you play fifty two
33:03
Speaker 1: of your eight two games against your own conference in
33:06
Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference is much tougher top to bottom this
33:08
Speaker 1: year than the West is in a way that hasn't
33:10
Speaker 1: been the case in previous seasons. And so for the
33:13
Speaker 1: for the Sixers to be where they're at with how
33:16
Speaker 1: much talent they had on their roster, I think it's
33:18
Speaker 1: extremely impressive. So Leen yokis right now. My value bet
33:21
Speaker 1: would be staff all right, this is good actionable intel
33:26
Speaker 1: STEPH twelve to one Janice plus three two longer shot
33:33
Speaker 1: bets for m v P out of the Yokich em
33:37
Speaker 1: Bead conversation, Matt Moore coming out of nowhere bypassing the sixers,
33:42
Speaker 1: bypassing the nets, basically saying, the best long shot bet
33:46
Speaker 1: right now to win the NBA title could be the
33:49
Speaker 1: Milwaukee Bucks to repeat at about plus six fifty. Very
33:54
Speaker 1: important note. If you need more basketball betting in tell
34:00
Speaker 1: go listen to Buckets, Go download buckets. Listen to Matt Moore,
34:05
Speaker 1: Listen to Raheem Palmer, listened to Brandon Anderson, Listen to
34:09
Speaker 1: Dan Titus. The m v P conversation they will have
34:11
Speaker 1: over the next three months will be the best m
34:14
Speaker 1: v P conversation that anybody is having. It will be
34:17
Speaker 1: so interesting about the voting blocks, about the narrative, about
34:19
Speaker 1: the changing face of the voters, about how the conversation
34:22
Speaker 1: has had for who win m VP. It's fantastic. All
34:25
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