Latest / Im Krisenmodus / War in Ukraine: Doubts Cast on Russia’s Claim of Victory in Kostiantynivka
Transcript
- 0:00Die Übersetzung von Jans Stimme vom Deutschen ins Englische wurde mit einer KI erstellt.
- 0:05At the beginning of July, Russia announces a major military success.
- 0:09The strategically important city of Kostyantinivka in the Donetsk region has
- 0:14been completely captured.
- 0:15Ukraine's general staff disputes the claim.
- 0:19Analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War also see no evidence
- 0:23that Russia has gained full control of the city.
- 0:26Almost three months later, I'm sitting in an unremarkable house on a side in Kramatorsk.
- 0:32In front of me, two Ukrainian soldiers are tracking the flight of a large drone on a monitor.
- 0:39The images show Kostiantynivka, burned out houses, destroyed rooftops, empty streets.
- 0:46The drone hovers over a building and drops its payload.
- 0:50It's delivering supplies to Ukrainian soldiers, in a city Russia declared captured long ago.
- 0:57One of the men goes by the call sign, He commands a drone unit in the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade.
- 1:05His unit supplies Ukrainian positions in Kostiantinivka with food,
- 1:09ammunition and medicine.
- 1:11I confront him with Russia's announcement of victory.
- 1:24Of course the Russians have superior numbers. They are a formidable opponent,
- 1:29and they must not be underestimated.
- 1:32We don't underestimate them, but we are putting up strong resistance.
- 1:48How can Russia declare a city captured when Ukrainian soldiers are still fighting
- 1:53there and receiving supplies?
- 1:55What does it actually mean to control a city in this war? And what has the Ukrainian
- 1:59operation codenamed Vivaldi changed on the front line?
- 2:03That's what this episode is about.
- 2:09In Crisis Mode, the podcast from Conflict Zones with Jan Jessen.
- 2:18Hello, I'm Jan Jessen, Political Editor-in-Chief and War and Crisis Reporter for Funker Media Group.
- 2:24Kramatorsk has changed dramatically since my last visit in the spring.
- 2:28The city has now become a fortress. Barbed wire and concrete anti-tank obstacles line the streets.
- 2:35Net tunnels have been erected over major roads to protect against incoming kamikaze drones.
- 2:41Russian glide bombs have hit buildings in several locations.
- 2:45Just a few days before my visit, one exploded in a residential neighbourhood,
- 2:49destroying the Church of St. John the Baptist.
- 2:52Small kamikaze drones are now flying over Kramatorsk too.
- 2:57We've already reported on this threat in our episode about Kursen.
- 3:01We'll link to that episode in the show notes. These drones sound a bit like
- 3:05mosquitoes turned up to an unbearable volume.
- 3:08It's a nerve-wracking noise, and it makes working in Kramatorsk considerably more difficult.
- 3:13Kramatorsk und nahe Slovyansk formen das Herz der Ukraine fortifieden Beldung in der Donetskregion.
- 3:21Drushkivka and Kostyantinivka are also part of this chain of cities.
- 3:26About one-fifth of the Donetsk region remains under Ukrainian control.
- 3:31Capturing the entire region is one of Russia's most important war aims.
- 3:36This year, Russia intended to break through along several axes.
- 3:40To help you picture the situation, Slovyansk lies to the north,
- 3:45with Kramatorsk below it, then Drushkivka, and farther south, Kostyantinivka.
- 3:52Russian forces are attacking Kostyantinivka directly. At the same time,
- 3:56they are trying to bypass the entire fortified belt, advancing from Lyman in
- 4:01the northeast and from Dobropilya in the southwest.
- 4:05The aim is a pincer movement. Russian troops want to cut Ukrainian supply routes
- 4:10and gradually encircle the major cities.
- 4:13So far, this plan has not succeeded.
- 4:16In the north, Ukrainian forces have even managed to push back the Russian advance.
- 4:22We'll come back to that in more detail shortly. Kostyantinivka has now been
- 4:26heavily destroyed and is the scene of fierce fighting.
- 4:29Small Russian units are infiltrating the city, but Ukrainian soldiers are still
- 4:34holding positions there too.
- 4:36At the beginning of July, the Russian military and President Vladimir Putin
- 4:40declared the city fully captured.
- 4:42Yet almost three months later, Ukrainian soldiers are still fighting there.
- 4:47Hordyi's unit supplies them from the air. Large drones carry food,
- 4:52water, ammunition and medicine to the front lines.
- 4:56When Russian soldiers get too close to Ukrainian positions, these drones are
- 5:00also used to attack them. Every flight is a risk.
- 5:04Hordyi says many of their drones are shot down. Sometimes rain and fog provide
- 5:09the most effective protection from Russian air defenses.
- 5:12In good visibility, he says, flying without being detected is almost impossible.
- 5:18Even so, his unit tries to keep the position supplied at all times.
- 5:23Something else interesting happened while we were talking to Hordyi.
- 5:27As we discussed kamikaze drones, we suddenly heard machine gun fire not far away.
- 5:33Ukrainian units were trying to shoot down incoming drones over Kramatorsk.
- 5:39That too has now become part of everyday life in the city.
- 5:43Naturally, we can't independently verify every detail of his account.
- 5:48For journalists like us, getting into Kostyantinivka is currently impossible.
- 5:53You would have to cover around 20, 25 or even 30 km on foot.
- 5:59And the chances of arriving in anything resembling one piece are relatively slim.
- 6:04At this point, it's simply no longer possible for us to get there.
- 6:09However, Hordi's central claim is also supported by outside observers.
- 6:15The Institute for the Study of War says there is no evidence that Russia has
- 6:19fully captured Kostyantinivka.
- 6:22At another position in Kramatorsk, I meet another Ukrainian officer. His callsign is Vudi.
- 6:30He is deputy company commander in the 39th Separate Drone Battalion.
- 6:35Vudi's unit has a different role from Hordi's team. It does not directly supply
- 6:39Ukrainian positions in Kostyantinivka.
- 6:42Instead, its medium-range drones attack Russian supply lines.
- 6:47Unmanned ground vehicles also transport ammunition, water and food to areas
- 6:52that are now almost impossible for people or conventional vehicles to reach.
- 6:57These ground robots also help evacuate the wounded and recover fallen soldiers.
- 7:03We've talked about this several times on the podcast already.
- 7:06Getting into these positions has become extremely difficult.
- 7:10The so-called kill zone now extends 40 kilometers and in some places 50 kilometers,
- 7:16meaning an area where drones are operating everywhere.
- 7:19Getting wounded soldiers out of there is incredibly difficult.
- 7:23If you send people in to do the job, you need at least two people to evacuate
- 7:27one wounded soldier, usually three or four.
- 7:30That means that rescuing a single casualty can suddenly put another three,
- 7:35four or five people in mortal danger. That's...
- 7:46We started doing this in April. Back then, we had just one small ground robot.
- 7:50I took it on a mission to Kostianti Nivka.
- 7:54After that, we built up the unit step by step. By now, it's almost the size
- 7:58of a company. Today, the job is much more difficult.
- 8:02Back then the threat was considerably lower, and getting into Kostiantinivka
- 8:06was still relatively straightforward.
- 8:08Today a single mission from Kramatorsk to Drushkivka can take 8,
- 8:139 or even 10 hours, sometimes a whole day, and that's a distance of only about 7km.
- 8:19We constantly have to stop and wait.
- 8:21The road might be mined before we even set off.
- 8:24Then we have to wait until it's
- 8:25been cleared, because we can't do that ourselves. It's pretty difficult.
- 8:33Wir.
- 8:36Warten, aber es ist sehr schwierig. 7 km in, um 10 Stunden. Under normalen Konditionen,
- 8:40das wäre ein sehr kurzer Drei. 7 km könnte 10 Minuten dauern.
- 8:44Aber unter den Konditionen über diese Frontline, das gleiche Reise kann einen ganzen Tag dauern.
- 8:49Drones monitorieren die Straßen. Other Drones attacken Fahrzeuge.
- 8:53Routes können gebraucht werden.
- 8:55Wieder und wieder, Soldaten müssen und warten und warten. Ein Roboter in der
- 9:00Bühne nicht die Gefahr, natürlich.
- 9:02But it changes who is exposed to them.
- 9:04If the robot is hit, equipment is lost.
- 9:07If a person is inside a vehicle, the same mission can cost them their life.
- 9:12But drones don't just determine how Ukrainian soldiers are supplied.
- 9:16They are also key to the counteroffensive taking place farther north.
- 9:20Its codename is Vivaldi.
- 9:23You may have read a little about it already. It was a very, very interesting
- 9:27operation that began back in the spring and was kept completely secret.
- 9:32Just think about what that means. The operation was carried out by Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps.
- 9:38Several brigades were involved, that is, tens of thousands of soldiers,
- 9:43and yet the Ukrainians managed to keep the operation secret well into the autumn.
- 9:48That's a remarkable achievement, and it took the international community by surprise as well.
- 9:54Um zu verstehen, ich spreche mit Dr. Gustav Gressel, ein Militärer der National
- 10:01Defense Academy in Vienna.
- 10:04Gressel doesn't describe Vivaldi as a major Ukrainian offensive designed to
- 10:09force a deep breakthrough.
- 10:11He says it is a limited attack with a broader defensive purpose.
- 10:21In my view, Vivaldi has operational significance, but it's not an operational level offensive.
- 10:26It's essentially a tactical offensive with an operational, defensive objective.
- 10:31If we look back to the spring, the Russians were trying to encircle Ukraine's
- 10:35fortified defensive belt with two pincer movements.
- 10:38The idea wasn't to capture it head-on, but to surround it.
- 10:42One thrust aimed to advance from the Lyman area towards the Oskil River,
- 10:46while the other pushed north from Dobropilya.
- 10:50In the south around Dobropilya, Russian military pressure was significantly
- 10:54greater than in the north.
- 10:55The Russians were more successful there in supplying their spearheads.
- 10:59In the north, it was more difficult because several smaller rivers and streams
- 11:03channeled Russian movements along certain routes.
- 11:05The Ukrainians were more successful there in thinning out those attacking forces.
- 11:10That's why the Ukrainians launched a counteroffensive in the north to eliminate the Russian salient.
- 11:21Vivaldi, then, is a tactical attack with a broader defensive impact.
- 11:26In effect, it has already achieved an operational objective.
- 11:30Ukrainian forces are aiming to push back the Russian salient near Lyman.
- 11:35They have now succeeded in doing so.
- 11:37The goal is to protect supply routes to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk,
- 11:42while disrupting the northern flank of Russia's planned Pinsa movement.
- 11:46A key role in this operation has been played by the 60th separate Inhulets mechanized
- 11:51brigade, Teil der 3. Armee Korps, die in dieser Region aktiviert ist.
- 11:57In late September, I meet the brigade's commander, Major Dimitro Rohoziuk,
- 12:02in a bombed-out school building in Izium.
- 12:05His brigade's initial task was to halt the Russian advance. That was the first
- 12:10phase of Operation Vivaldi.
- 12:12The name, of course, is no coincidence. Antonio Vivaldi's best-known work is
- 12:17The Four Seasons, and this Operation II is divided into several phases.
- 12:22For operational security reasons,
- 12:24however, the commander won't reveal anything about the fourth phase.
- 12:28According to Major Rohoziuk, Russia's offensive was aimed at capturing Lyman,
- 12:33reaching Sviatohirsk, and advancing towards the road linking Kharkiv and Slovyansk.
- 12:39I'll come back to Sviatohirsk in a moment because this town is also a case in
- 12:43point when it comes to Russian disinformation.
- 12:46In early September, Putin had already declared that Russian forces had captured Sviatohirsk.
- 12:52Naturally, I asked the Major what truth there was to that claim.
- 12:56His answer was unequivocal.
- 12:59Ihr müsst verstehen, dass es in meinen Augen ist, weil ich verstehe,
- 13:05weil ich verstehe, weil ich es völlig absurd ist, weil ich weiß,
- 13:11wie unsere Truppen sind.
- 13:13Svyatohirsk hat in der Rear-Area von der 60th Brigade all along und wir haben
- 13:18unsere Defensive Lines da gehalten. Als vorhin als ein Jahr ago,
- 13:21ich war durch alle diese Stadt und ich bin da schon mal zurückgegangen.
- 13:25Über den Kursen dieses Jahr.
- 13:27Sviatohirsk und die Bereiche von Yarova und Drobishev sind behind die 60 Brigade's positions.
- 13:33Es ist möglich, dass unsere Sicherheitsmeasures misleid die enemy.
- 13:36Wir haben nicht nur wie stabil die Situation da eigentlich war,
- 13:39oder dass isoliert die Russische Infiltration nicht die Gefängnisse der 60 Brigade,
- 13:45oder die 3rd Army Corps als ein.
- 13:46Das ist genau das, was das so absurd ist.
- 13:49Wie können Sie darüber reden, wenn unsere Forces in dieser Sektor Ich kann es
- 13:55sagen, dass die Verlangen des Einwohnern des Einwohnern, die sehr wichtig sind,
- 13:59wenn in diesem Moment, die unsere Reichweite sind im Krieg des Anstums.
- 14:03Rohoziuk does not deny that small Russian units are trying to infiltrate Ukrainian
- 14:07lines. But he makes a more precise point.
- 14:10The presence of individual soldiers or small groups does not mean that Russia
- 14:14has military control over a town.
- 14:17This, incidentally, is another tactic Russian forces have been using more and
- 14:21more frequently lately, or at least more frequently this year.
- 14:25They send in small infiltration teams, essentially suicide squads or one-way missions.
- 14:32Their sole purpose is often to pose somewhere with a Russian flag.
- 14:36A Russian drone films a soldier standing there, waving the flag.
- 14:41Then he quickly rolls it up and tries to get out, assuming he makes it out alive.
- 14:46The Russians use this footage to claim military successes on the battlefield
- 14:50that, in reality, never happened on anything like the scale they suggest.
- 14:56As I said, Ukraine's counter-offensive in this area was a very,
- 15:00very large operation, und es bleibt für Monate gegründet.
- 15:05Preparations for Operation Vivaldi began as early as the spring.
- 15:09It was only in early September that the first details of the operation began to emerge.
- 15:15At the time of our conversation, Rochosiuk says Ukrainian forces have brought
- 15:20more than 125 square kilometers under their control.
- 15:24By the end of the third phase, that figure, according to the Ukrainian side,
- 15:29has risen to more than 170 square kilometers.
- 15:33As always, the precise extent of the territorial gains and Russian losses cannot
- 15:38be fully independently verified.
- 15:41But the course of the front line does show that Ukraine has managed to push
- 15:45back the Russian salient in this sector.
- 15:48All publicly available maps tell the same story, including those published by
- 15:53the Institute for the Study of War and Deep State, a Ukrainian open source intelligence project.
- 15:59Und hier ist ein wichtiger Punkt. Even Russian-Military-Bloggers,
- 16:04die normalerweise ein starkes-Russisch-Russien-Line, sagen, dass Ukraine hat
- 16:08eine Successful Counteroffensive in diesem Bereich gemacht. Das hat sich in
- 16:13den letzten Wochen verletzt.
- 16:17Sie sind in den Armen über die Ukraine-Offensive, über Ukraine's capabilities,
- 16:22und über alles, über wie tief sie fühlen,
- 16:25sie haben sich selbst verletzt von ihren eigenen Leidenschaft.
- 16:28Aber was erinnert ist, dass nicht nur die Ukraine-Förse sind auf die Offensive,
- 16:33sondern nur die Positionen, wie sie für vieles Jahr gemacht haben.
- 16:38Was wirklich wichtig ist, wie sie vorbereiteten für die Attacken haben.
- 16:41According zu Gustav Gressel, die Ukraine-Unitär erst brauchen zu erstellen local
- 16:46superiority in der Drone War.
- 16:48Only then can tanks and mechanized infantry advance.
- 16:57Preparations for the offensive probably began in March, with the first attacks taking place in May.
- 17:02A crucial part of the operation was establishing local superiority in the drone war.
- 17:08That meant systematically degrading Russia's ability to operate drones in this
- 17:11sector through electronic warfare and reconnaissance, essentially boxing the
- 17:15Russian units into a corner, identifying their positions and then systematically
- 17:19destroying their capabilities.
- 17:21This also shows just how much preparation time is needed for a mechanized assault.
- 17:24The Ukrainians did attack with mechanized forces, but those forces were only
- 17:28deployed once the drone situation had been prepared accordingly.
- 17:31So, for everyone now shouting, main battle tanks are back, mobile warfare,
- 17:36blitzkrieg, maneuver warfare, hooray!
- 17:39Well, it's not that simple. Of course, main battle tanks have value.
- 17:43And of course, you need mechanized infantry to carry out attacks like this.
- 17:47But these forces can only operate effectively as combat formations when they
- 17:51are integrated with drone units.
- 17:53They also need to be coordinated through digital command and control systems
- 17:56alongside electronic warfare and electronic intelligence.
- 17:59And all of this has to happen at lower levels of command too,
- 18:02not just at core level or above, as is often the case in European armies,
- 18:06but right down to the smallest tactical units.
- 18:09That's how you establish drone superiority. und nur dann kann man attacken.
- 18:21Tanks and infantry, then, are not disappearing from the battlefield,
- 18:25but they can no longer be used effectively if enemy drones are constantly hovering overhead.
- 18:31We've talked several times on this podcast about how warfare has changed in
- 18:35recent years and about the huge role drones now play.
- 18:39We can also add links to other episodes in the show notes where we explore this subject in more detail.
- 18:46In the case of Operation Vivaldi, Untertitelung des ZDF.
- 18:57Die Ukraine hat sich in den USA gelegt, dass die Russen in den USA gelegt,
- 19:00die in den USA gelegt wurden, die in den USA gelegt wurden.
- 19:04Das ist genau das die Ukrainien in den USA während Operation Vivaldi.
- 19:10Sie hat auch die Verlust und Verlust hinter den Russen gelegt,
- 19:14durch die Russen gelegt wurden.
- 19:16Diese wurden transportiert hinter enemy Lines by large drones.
- 19:20Equipped with heavy machine guns, the ground robots could then suddenly become
- 19:25active behind Russian lines and open fire.
- 19:28Gressel describes this as an entirely new form of combined arms warfare.
- 19:33Traditional tanks, mechanized infantry and artillery are now integrated with
- 19:38reconnaissance drones, attack drones, ground robots, electronic warfare and
- 19:44digital command and control systems,
- 19:48another member of the 60th brigade describes how the ukrainian side views the state of its opponent,
- 19:54his call sign is akhmet akhmet is a battle captain an officer responsible for
- 20:00coordinating combat operations,
- 20:03he manages cooperation between the battalions and the various units he also
- 20:08checks whether the brigade commander's orders are being und ich habe,
- 20:12ihn mit ihm, auch in Izyum, ich frage ihn über die Russische 20th Armee,
- 20:17die seine Brigade ist gegenwärtig.
- 20:21Sie können uns noch ein, wie sagen wir es sagen, eine Stabilität.
- 20:28Aber die 20-Jährigen ist unbeziehungsweise.
- 20:30Die 20-Jährigen hat sich als eine maximale kaltige Arme.
- 20:37Sie können noch ein bisschen aufwärts sein, aber die Gegend ist, die,
- 20:4320-Jährigen hat sich selbst zu verletzt. Die 20-Jährigen hat sich selbst zu
- 20:44sein, dass sie sich selbst verletzt hat, dass sie ihre eigenen Soldaten haben.
- 20:48Sie haben einfach nur ihre eigenen Männern.
- 20:51I don't know how else to put it. To me, it looked as though the 20th Army hadn't
- 20:55planned anything at all.
- 20:57They just sent men forward to plug gaps. Their main task seemed to be preventing
- 21:01their own troops from retreating.
- 21:03They're sitting there hungry and dehydrated. They keep asking for food and water to be brought to them.
- 21:09But nothing arrives. And yet they remain in their positions,
- 21:12in some cases still trying to carry out their orders.
- 21:21Aber sie trotzdem, wie sie, sie versuchen es zu sehen, und sie versuchen sogar
- 21:28sogar zu diese Aufgabe zu stellen.
- 21:33Achmed describes Russian forces from the perspective of a Ukrainian officer.
- 21:38Naturally, his language is harsh.
- 21:40But he also makes it clear that an exhausted enemy is not necessarily a defeated
- 21:44one. Russian units can still put up resistance.
- 21:48Another thing I found striking in our conversation was that the Russians apparently
- 21:52haven't really changed their tactics.
- 21:55We're talking about what are known as human wave attacks. A grim term,
- 21:59but one that is widely used to describe this approach.
- 22:03»Large numbers of soldiers are sent towards Ukrainian positions.
- 22:07Regardless of how many are killed, the hope is that one or two will make it
- 22:11through, or that Ukrainian positions will eventually run out of ammunition or
- 22:15suffer weapons failures.
- 22:17We've seen this pattern in one form or another since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
- 22:23We saw it in Bakhmut, in Avdivka, and in many other towns, where Russia has
- 22:27been willing to sustain enormous losses to achieve its objectives.
- 22:32Und es scheint es zu sein zu haben, um Leiman zu sein.
- 22:35Auf einem Punkt, Achmet's observations sind die Zusammenarbeit mit Gressel's analysis.
- 22:40Gressel also believes that Russian units in der Norden Sektor waren weniger
- 22:45als die further south, um Dobropylia zu sein.
- 22:48Die Ukrainian forces apparently found a gap zwischen den reporteden Strenzen
- 22:52der Russian Formationen und den numberen Soldaten eigentlich fit für combat.
- 22:57Sie waren able zu exploit das Weakness in der Counteroffensive.
- 23:01So far, we've been talking about territorial gains, supply routes and military
- 23:06control, but the same places commanders discuss on their maps are still home to civilians.
- 23:12The transition from ground robots to these people is more direct than it might first appear.
- 23:17The same robots that carry water and ammunition to the front can bring back
- 23:21wounded soldiers or recover the dead on their return journey.
- 23:26In one widely reported case, the 60th Inhulets Brigade also used a ground robot
- 23:32to evacuate an elderly woman from a contested area.
- 23:35Natalia Bahri heads the Civil-Military Cooperation Department of the 60th Inhulets Brigade.
- 23:42Her team stays in contact with people who have remained in areas affected by the fighting.
- 23:48They try to organise evacuations from Sviatohirsk, Leimann, Stavki and other settlements.
- 23:54Natalia tells me about people who have already been evacuated once,
- 23:58only to return when the situation temporarily calms down.
- 24:03One family returns and ends up living in a basement, surviving on whatever food
- 24:07supplies they have left.
- 24:09Ukrainian soldiers stumble across them by chance and eventually manage to get them out.
- 24:22This family had already been evacuated once, back in 2022. Then the situation
- 24:27improved and they returned home.
- 24:29Wenn Things deteriorated Again, they decided to stay Anyway.
- 24:33They were living in a basement, surviving on whatever supplies they had left.
- 24:38They had no intention of leaving again. Our soldiers came across them by chance,
- 24:42while carrying out a mission in the area. We offered to evacuate them.
- 24:46Later I spoke to them at the evacuation point in Slovyansk.
- 24:50I asked them, why? You're putting yourselves in danger. You could die. Do you realize that?
- 24:58I got the answer we hear so often. We came back home. This is our home.
- 25:06This is our home. From the outside, it can be hard to understand why anyone
- 25:12would return to a largely destroyed town with no electricity,
- 25:16no reliable water supply and the constant threat of further attacks.
- 25:21But for the people who live there, it's about more than just a building.
- 25:25It's about the life they had before, their possessions, their memories and sometimes
- 25:30the only place where they still feel they belong.
- 25:33This is something we've come back to time and again on this podcast when discussing
- 25:37the war in Ukraine, the sheer absurdity of civilians still living in towns where
- 25:42fighting is taking place, in some cases right on the ground around them.
- 25:46I think of Chasiv Yar and Bakhmut, where people were still trying to make some
- 25:51kind of life for themselves, or Kherson, where I was just recently,
- 25:55and where you really have to ask yourself, what kind of life is this?
- 25:59And yet people don't want to leave. Some even return to towns and villages that
- 26:04have been almost completely destroyed.
- 26:06Natalia says that families with children, too, repeatedly refuse evacuation.
- 26:12One of these encounters, and this is the tragic reality of this war, ends in death.
- 26:21Recently, one of our units was operating in the area. The soldiers went into
- 26:24a basement and found a family there with a child.
- 26:26They said, we're moving on, come with us, we'll get you out of here.
- 26:29Die Familie hat gesagt, nein. Nachher, die Soldaten wiedergekommen sind.
- 26:34Once mehr, sie sagten, wir nehmen Sie mit uns.
- 26:36Und wieder, die Familie hat gesagt, nein, es gibt keine 필요, wir machen.
- 26:41Die dritte Mal, die Familie hat endlich geregelt, aber wenn die Soldaten zurückgekommen
- 26:45sind, sie waren tot, dass sie es. All die da waren, waren ihre Böse.
- 26:51Natalia doesn't name the place. She simply refers to it as a death zone.
- 26:56This story shows why terms like captured, held and liberated are not enough
- 27:02on their own to describe the reality facing people on the ground.
- 27:06A place can be retaken militarily and still remain deadly.
- 27:10One particularly striking example is Kherson in southern Ukraine, where I go quite oft.
- 27:16For me, the city has become a focal point of this war, a symbol of what it means.
- 27:22Kursen was liberated in late 2022, after months of Russian occupation.
- 27:28Since then, the city has been under constant Russian fire.
- 27:32From the other side of the Dnipro River, Russian forces attack with artillery,
- 27:37mortars, snipers, tanks and drones.
- 27:42And yet people stay, even though life.
- 27:48Natalia says Russia has, in
- 27:50some cases, even stepped up its attacks on places that have been retaken.
- 27:55Civilians hear that a town or city has been liberated and believe they can return home.
- 28:00But once they get there, they are still exposed to drones, artillery and guided bombs.
- 28:07We control this area. But some civilians hear that and decide to return home.
- 28:11And that's exactly the problem. Liberating an area doesn't mean it's immediately
- 28:14safe. On the contrary, the enemy often turns even more of its attention to that place.
- 28:19It steps up its attacks with guided bombs, drones and other weapons.
- 28:22Some people hear that a village or town has been liberated and believe that
- 28:24now is the right time to go back.
- 28:26We keep explaining to them. Just because a place has been liberated doesn't
- 28:29mean it's safe to return." According to Natalia's figures at the time,
- 28:32in late September, 272 people were still living in Sviatohirsk.
- 28:37Around 240 of them were staying in the area around the Lavra monastery.
- 28:42There was no regular electricity supply. Some people got their water from private wells.
- 28:47A few small shops were still open, but normal urban life was no longer possible.
- 28:53In early September, Putin declared that Sviatohirsk had been captured.
- 28:58Everyone I spoke to told me the same thing. That was complete bullshit.
- 29:03In Kostyantinivka, at least, Russian soldiers are present in the city,
- 29:07even though they haven't captured it entirely.
- 29:09But in Sviatohirsk, the front line is still 30 or 40 kilometers away.
- 29:15No Russian soldier has set foot in the city for years.
- 29:18It's a rear area for the 60th Brigade. So the claim is completely bonkers.
- 29:23But it also suggests that Putin may be receiving false information about what
- 29:28is actually happening on the front.
- 29:30These figures can change quickly, but they show something that military maps cannot capture.
- 29:36A map shows which army controls a place. It doesn't tell you whether water comes out of the tap.
- 29:42Es zeigt sich nicht, ob eine Ambulanz kann durch die Straße gehen.
- 29:46Es zeigt sich nicht, wie viele Fälle sagen, bevor es endlich zu bevacuert.
- 29:51Russia's claims to have captured Kostyantinivka and Sviatohirska simply false,
- 29:57and that carries a certain risk.
- 29:59If I believe I'm succeeding on the battlefield, that perception may also affect
- 30:04my willingness to negotiate.
- 30:07Gustav Gressel shares this assessment.
- 30:10Er sieht diese Russische falsche
- 30:11Claims als ein Risiko für politische und militärische Decision-Making.
- 30:20Die Implicationen von diesen disinformationen für Negotiations sind ein wichtiges
- 30:23Problem. Putin believes er hat die upper Hand bei einem gewissen Margin.
- 30:27Throughout dieser Krieg, Putin hat sich überrascht, die Ukraine's willingness,
- 30:32und ability zu resistieren.
- 30:34Die Terror-Attacks auf Kyiv, die auch, um die Ukraine zu tun,
- 30:37und break its will to fight, are based on a false assumption about Ukrainian
- 30:41domestic politics and the determination
- 30:43of Ukrainians to defend their country's existence as a state.
- 30:46These miscalculations are what make the war drag on, or more precisely,
- 30:50they help explain why it was launched in the first place as a completely futile undertaking.
- 30:55But all of that gets drowned out by the fascists here, clamoring for peace.
- 31:01Aber das geht ja im Friedensgegröle der Faschisten hier unter.
- 31:06Russland hat Kostyan-Tenivka geimpft.
- 31:09Sie hat Svyatohirska geimpft. Aber die ukrainischen Soldaten,
- 31:13die ich mit gesprochen habe, beschreiben eine sehr andere Realität.
- 31:16Die russischen Unen sind in Kostyan-Tenivka geimpft. Aber ukrainische Soldaten
- 31:20sind noch immer auf die Position. Sie sind von Dronen geimpft.
- 31:24Die Stadt ist stark contestiert, aber es ist nicht unter russischem Kontrolle.
- 31:29Und Sviatohirska, wie ich sagte, ist rund 30 km von der Front Line. Es ist einfach absurd.
- 31:37Natürlich, das ist nichts von dem Gefahr hat.
- 31:40Kosty Antonivka liegt in den Ruinen. Russische Pressure continues.
- 31:45Und wenn eine Militär-Line holds oder eine Stadt ist retaken,
- 31:48das nicht die Menschen da sind, die da sind, sind sie sicher.
- 31:51Vielleicht ist das die wichtigste Lehre von dieser trip. Words wie Captured,
- 31:55Held und Liberated sound, als wenn sie eine klar-cut Situation beschreiben.
- 32:01Aber auf der Grund, sie oft beschreiben nur eine Moment in einem Situation,
- 32:05das immer noch immer verändert wird.
- 32:06Eine Stadt kann nicht fallen, und es kann weiterhin werden, und es kann immer
- 32:10noch nie werden, nachdem es sich verletzt.
- 32:12A road may be open on the map, but a journey of just 7 km can still take an entire day.
- 32:19A village may have been liberated, while its residents are still living in basements.
- 32:24And a victory announcement tells us nothing about whether someone can actually return home.
- 32:29What would you like to know from the people who remain in places like these,
- 32:33where the fighting is still going on?
- 32:35And how can the media report military successes without losing sight of what
- 32:39they mean for the civilian population?
- 32:41I'd love to hear your thoughts. Write to me and let me know.
- 32:45That's it for today's episode of our podcast. This podcast was produced by Alexander Baumeister.
- 32:51He's also a journalist and works for a radio station belonging to the Funky Media Group.
- 32:56If you enjoyed this episode, please like and follow the podcast.
- 33:00It really helps more people discover our work. And if you have an idea for a
- 33:04future episode, I'd love to hear from you.
- 33:07Until next time, bye-bye.