Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / BlackRock’s $26 Billion Private Credit Fund Limits Withdrawls
Transcript
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- 0:24Speaker 2: One of the undercurrents out there in the marketplace is
- 0:26Speaker 2: credit quality, particularly in the private credit business. We've been
- 0:29Speaker 2: reading stories over the last several weeks and months, including
- 0:33Speaker 2: blue Out for example, and there's another about some credit
- 0:37Speaker 2: titaness there and some concerns there.
- 0:39Speaker 3: Then Blackrock.
- 0:40Speaker 2: Today Blackrock curbed withdrawals from its HPS corporate Lending fund
- 0:45Speaker 2: after client requests for redemption. Spike, I wasn't expecting Blackrock,
- 0:50Speaker 2: that this is such a high quality name. I was
- 0:52Speaker 2: not expecting to see the Blackrock come into this conversation.
- 0:55Speaker 2: But let's get the latest reporting there. Brian schapotap It
- 0:57Speaker 2: joins his managing enter of Leverage, Finance and the rest.
- 1:00Speaker 3: Bet for Bloomberg News.
- 1:02Speaker 2: Brian talked to us about what's happening in the private
- 1:04Speaker 2: credit market here today. Are these cockroaches, as Jamie Diamonds suggests,
- 1:09Speaker 2: or is this something now maybe a little bit more
- 1:11Speaker 2: systematic or systemic.
- 1:13Speaker 4: Well, you know, I think you talked about at the
- 1:15Speaker 4: jump you weren't expecting necessarily Blackrock, And you know, one
- 1:17Speaker 4: of the big things that Blackrock has been pushing into
- 1:20Speaker 4: is private markets and is private credits. So this HPS
- 1:23Speaker 4: fund is one of the major funds that it acquired
- 1:26Speaker 4: as part of its acquisition last year of HPS Investment Partners.
- 1:29Speaker 4: So what you were seeing here in this fund is
- 1:31Speaker 4: nine point three percent withdraw all requests. And they have
- 1:35Speaker 4: stated in their language, as many of these private credit
- 1:37Speaker 4: funds do, if we reserve the right to halt redemptions
- 1:41Speaker 4: at five percent if they become too overwhelming for us,
- 1:44Speaker 4: because we can't really sell our assets. So they threw
- 1:48Speaker 4: up the gates, as they like to say, and as
- 1:50Speaker 4: a result, investors aren't getting the full money back that
- 1:54Speaker 4: they expected. We'll see if that continues, and if it does,
- 1:56Speaker 4: that will be something that will play out over the
- 1:57Speaker 4: quarters to come.
- 1:59Speaker 5: Well, Brian, you know Blackrock saying that this step is
- 2:02Speaker 5: in line with its existing management of liquidity. As they
- 2:06Speaker 5: put it, are investors buying that, is the street buying that.
- 2:10Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 2:10Speaker 4: Well, one of the things that we've kind of observed
- 2:13Speaker 4: on the private credit team here at Bloomberg is that
- 2:16Speaker 4: even just as recently as this week, Blackstone opted to
- 2:19Speaker 4: meet all investor redemption requests even though it was seven
- 2:23Speaker 4: point nine percent in excess of that five percent threshold,
- 2:26Speaker 4: they were allowed to go all the way up to seven.
- 2:28Speaker 4: And then they also actually put some of the firm's
- 2:29Speaker 4: money and some of the employees' own money into kind
- 2:33Speaker 4: of offsetting the withdrawals. So for a long time, we
- 2:35Speaker 4: have not seen any asset manager actually say we are
- 2:40Speaker 4: limiting withdrawals because it's not a good look necessarily if
- 2:44Speaker 4: you can't get your full money back. But it is,
- 2:46Speaker 4: as they said, kind of part of what why you
- 2:48Speaker 4: got into private credit in the first place is illiquid
- 2:50Speaker 4: and you get paid for that.
- 2:52Speaker 3: So, Brian, what is the is there?
- 2:54Speaker 2: Or put it this way, is there a consensus building
- 2:56Speaker 2: as to whether there really is a systemic problem credit
- 2:59Speaker 2: problem in private credit?
- 3:02Speaker 4: Yeah, well, right now, it's kind of a liquidity problem.
- 3:04Speaker 4: Right There's a mismatch I think between maybe some of
- 3:08Speaker 4: the retail investors that got into these products that kind
- 3:11Speaker 4: of expect that if they want their money back, they
- 3:13Speaker 4: can get their money back, and do something else with it.
- 3:16Speaker 4: So I think this has to all play out, and
- 3:18Speaker 4: I think the question that everyone's asking is will there
- 3:21Speaker 4: eventually be kind of a liquidity problem become you know,
- 3:24Speaker 4: kind of there's a feedback loop, right like if there's
- 3:26Speaker 4: for selling, then prices go down, that hurts returns, and
- 3:29Speaker 4: then that necessitates kind of you know, people wanting to
- 3:32Speaker 4: pull their money more, and it becomes this kind of
- 3:34Speaker 4: very negative feedback loop. We kind of saw this with
- 3:37Speaker 4: with commercial real estate a few years ago when when the.
- 3:40Speaker 6: FED was hiking rates.
- 3:41Speaker 4: So we have to see how this cycle plays out
- 3:43Speaker 4: and whether it continues in the coming months and quarters.
- 3:46Speaker 5: And every seeing any read across through the broader credit space.
- 3:50Speaker 5: I know that, for instance, in publicly traded credit markets,
- 3:53Speaker 5: spreads have been quite favorable at the beginning of this year.
- 3:56Speaker 5: We've seen a lot of issuers benefit from that. But
- 3:59Speaker 5: now seeing more jitters in private credit space, is it
- 4:02Speaker 5: something that you expect to ripple across the res in
- 4:05Speaker 5: the market as well.
- 4:06Speaker 6: It's it's a really good point. I mean, some of
- 4:08Speaker 6: these private credit vehicles.
- 4:10Speaker 4: Have leverage loans which are which are kind of more
- 4:14Speaker 4: publicly traded, broadly syndicated in their in their portfolios so
- 4:18Speaker 4: that they have some sort of liquidity. So we are
- 4:21Speaker 4: actually seeing some evidence of this trickling out into the
- 4:25Speaker 4: other more like risky lending markets, where a lot of
- 4:29Speaker 4: managers are selling what they're able to and selling what's easy,
- 4:33Speaker 4: and that's actually hitting loan prices a little bit more
- 4:36Speaker 4: than we might expect, even though those loans are relatively
- 4:39Speaker 4: higher quality and are generally doing fine. Investors are kind
- 4:43Speaker 4: of trying to get liquidity where they can, and so
- 4:45Speaker 4: they're kind of selling the stuff that they're able.
- 4:47Speaker 2: Our private our fund managers are they out there in
- 4:50Speaker 2: the market trying to raise capital for private credit funds.
- 4:52Speaker 3: I would think this would be a tough time. They
- 4:55Speaker 3: are still.
- 4:56Speaker 4: I think it was Dan Loebe who came out recently
- 4:59Speaker 4: and said he was who's actually raising a BBC. There
- 5:02Speaker 4: are pockets of fundraising that are still working. But I
- 5:06Speaker 4: do think that's obviously a fair question. There's been this big,
- 5:08Speaker 4: obviously push into retail for one k's private markets, and
- 5:13Speaker 4: it comes at perhaps not the most optimal time, as
- 5:16Speaker 4: there's kind of a reassessment of.
- 5:18Speaker 6: Risk and kind of liquidity.
- 5:20Speaker 4: Nobody really cares about liquidity until they do, and when
- 5:23Speaker 4: they do, it can be kind of what we're seeing today.
- 5:27Speaker 5: Yeah, Well, are we seeing also any signs of stress
- 5:29Speaker 5: given what's happening in a broader space with a run
- 5:32Speaker 5: conflict at this moment? How does that get going to
- 5:35Speaker 5: play into private credit and credit markets broadly?
- 5:38Speaker 4: Yeah, it's still I would say early days as far
- 5:41Speaker 4: as the spillover effects. But obviously there are a lot
- 5:44Speaker 4: of borrowers out there that are exposed to commodity prices,
- 5:47Speaker 4: for example, and so I think those are some of
- 5:49Speaker 4: the markets where you're seeing the most dramatic moves as
- 5:52Speaker 4: a result of the conflict in Irans. So something that
- 5:56Speaker 4: I think the credit markets have to be watching pretty closely.
- 5:59Speaker 4: But for now, it was mostly just the market's kind
- 6:01Speaker 4: of just really quieted down quite a bit as everybody
- 6:04Speaker 4: kind of assessed what was happening on how long the
- 6:05Speaker 4: conflict might be going on. So I think we'll seeing
- 6:08Speaker 4: that maybe next week or the week after as some
- 6:10Speaker 4: of these big deals come down the pike.
- 6:12Speaker 3: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
- 6:19Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
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- 6:29Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 6:33Speaker 2: Just up a little technology stocks. Here's here's a note
- 6:37Speaker 2: from a recent analyst who says investors are now navigating
- 6:40Speaker 2: an uncertain Iran military conflict in the Middle East, adding
- 6:44Speaker 2: to the nervousness already in the tech trade with the ghosts,
- 6:47Speaker 2: with the AI ghost trade and anthropic worries abound. The
- 6:51Speaker 2: author of that note is Dan Ives, Global head of
- 6:54Speaker 2: Technology research at web Bush Securities. Here Dan, love to
- 6:57Speaker 2: get your thoughts, Danzey.
- 6:59Speaker 3: He's somewhere in the Swan Jersey. I don't know where
- 7:01Speaker 3: he is right now.
- 7:01Speaker 2: But what is the AI ghost trade, Dan, And how's
- 7:05Speaker 2: it impacted tech stocks?
- 7:07Speaker 6: Yeah? Well, Paul, I mean the AI ghost trade.
- 7:10Speaker 7: It goes back to like the anthropic worries that's crushed
- 7:12Speaker 7: software this year. You know, in terms of cybersecurity software
- 7:17Speaker 7: that these lms are going to replace.
- 7:19Speaker 6: The software layer.
- 7:20Speaker 7: And I'd take to somebody it's also been a huge
- 7:22Speaker 7: overhang of names like Microsoft.
- 7:24Speaker 6: But we continue to view it. It's a good trade.
- 7:27Speaker 7: I think last week's anthropic event earlier in the week
- 7:31Speaker 7: will be the star of a bottoming event. I think
- 7:33Speaker 7: we've already seen it in software, and I think it's
- 7:36Speaker 7: a fictional tale, okay, fairy tale. The anthropic is going
- 7:40Speaker 7: to replace software.
- 7:42Speaker 5: Yeah, well, I'm sure Dan that you've read a training
- 7:45Speaker 5: report from a couple of weeks ago that really sparks
- 7:48Speaker 5: some of these worries or continue to stoke these software worries.
- 7:53Speaker 5: What'd you take on that scenario? Are you an account
- 7:56Speaker 5: that it's too much doomsday, especially because they were calling
- 8:00Speaker 5: for this to or rather it was a hypothetical scenario
- 8:03Speaker 5: that they were potentially seeing play out as soon as
- 8:07Speaker 5: twenty twenty eight, But what are your thoughts about that?
- 8:10Speaker 6: I mean, that's like me saying in two years, I'm
- 8:12Speaker 6: going to be in pole vault in the Olympics in
- 8:14Speaker 6: La You could be. I mean, look, I get to
- 8:19Speaker 6: teach your own.
- 8:19Speaker 7: But I believe we're in the early d's of an
- 8:23Speaker 7: AI revolution and what's going to be a secure, a
- 8:26Speaker 7: tech ball market. Look, I get the jitters, the white
- 8:29Speaker 7: knuckles that we're going through in terms of the ghost trade,
- 8:32Speaker 7: worries about cap backs.
- 8:34Speaker 6: Obviously Iran conflict war which was adding to that.
- 8:37Speaker 7: But it just speaks to my view like this will
- 8:41Speaker 7: also pass Like these are going to be opportunities to
- 8:43Speaker 7: own the core tech winners in a revolution where the
- 8:47Speaker 7: US for the first time in thirty years is the
- 8:48Speaker 7: head of China when it comes attack DAN.
- 8:51Speaker 2: As it relates to risk or potential risk to software,
- 8:55Speaker 2: is there a way to differentiate ones that are maybe
- 8:57Speaker 2: more at risk versus less at risk.
- 9:01Speaker 7: Yeah, well, I think it's a great point. Look, I think,
- 9:03Speaker 7: first off, the most disconnected of all software cybersecurity, like
- 9:08Speaker 7: when I look like nothing is replacing the and AI
- 9:13Speaker 7: just increases the surface area and the miles are going
- 9:16Speaker 7: to have to be protected CrowdStrike pow out a checkpoint
- 9:21Speaker 7: Z scale like, I think that's probably one of the
- 9:23Speaker 7: areas that I think is a huge misnumber. And then
- 9:26Speaker 7: you look at like the salesforces the service now is
- 9:29Speaker 7: the Microsoft Like nothing is replaced in that layer and
- 9:33Speaker 7: that data. I palent you would be a good example
- 9:35Speaker 7: even when you look like everything that's happened with Anthropic
- 9:37Speaker 7: and the Pentagon, it's just going to increase the ability
- 9:40Speaker 7: for palenteer less reliant.
- 9:43Speaker 6: It's a plug and play in terms of the models
- 9:45Speaker 6: are there.
- 9:45Speaker 7: Coming to the UI path Some others that have maybe
- 9:49Speaker 7: more one trick pony business models. It could be disintermediate. Yeah,
- 9:53Speaker 7: but you can't paint them all at the same rush.
- 9:56Speaker 7: And that's why this is the most disconnected selloff that
- 10:00Speaker 7: I've seen my history on washing go back to the
- 10:02Speaker 7: late nineties.
- 10:03Speaker 8: Yeah.
- 10:03Speaker 5: Well, Dan, I know that you've also written recently about
- 10:07Speaker 5: how the tech trade and the developments in that space
- 10:10Speaker 5: connects to the broader macro environment that we're seeing. Obviously,
- 10:14Speaker 5: the rund conflict driving a lot of price action this week.
- 10:17Speaker 5: What are your thoughts around that?
- 10:18Speaker 6: Then?
- 10:18Speaker 5: How does this new catalyst kind of further up in
- 10:22Speaker 5: what we're seeing in the tech space at the moment.
- 10:25Speaker 7: Look, I think right now investors are trying to put
- 10:28Speaker 7: pieces of the puzzle together, and the puzzle keeps getting
- 10:32Speaker 7: thrown apart. Right in terms of like other risks and
- 10:35Speaker 7: other fears, I think at the end of the day,
- 10:37Speaker 7: you take a step back the anthropic fears, the goos
- 10:41Speaker 7: trade that is way disconnected in terms of what I
- 10:45Speaker 7: see is happening software and sproader tech. The cat backst
- 10:49Speaker 7: hours are going to continue to increase, and even though
- 10:52Speaker 7: you're going through these jitters, that's not going to stop that.
- 10:55Speaker 7: That's going to continue to accelerate. I think when you
- 10:57Speaker 7: look what's happening, you know, with with Iran conflict and
- 11:02Speaker 7: war and what this is doing to some extent, military
- 11:06Speaker 7: is going to just have to.
- 11:07Speaker 6: Rely more and more on technology players.
- 11:09Speaker 7: And I think that's playing in We've talked about like
- 11:11Speaker 7: our top ten names, Like there's names like Planet Labs.
- 11:15Speaker 6: There's names like Voyager, you know.
- 11:17Speaker 7: Of course, like you know, safety Technius, cybersecurity, names like Polunteer.
- 11:21Speaker 7: I think tech messures need to navigate this uncertainty but
- 11:25Speaker 7: own the winners and you cannot get caught on with
- 11:29Speaker 7: still the long term thesis that were less than a
- 11:32Speaker 7: third of the way through.
- 11:34Speaker 2: Dan last question thirty seconds left the both how do
- 11:37Speaker 2: you put into context the anthropics and the open ayes
- 11:41Speaker 2: and some of the discussions they've been having with the government,
- 11:43Speaker 2: particularly the Pentagon about how technology is used.
- 11:48Speaker 7: Look anthropic, like they touched the third rile essentially right
- 11:53Speaker 7: now they're trying I didn't starting to backtrack and some
- 11:55Speaker 7: of the apologies, but you cannot tell the government and
- 11:59Speaker 7: I think they're needs to be guardrails and I think
- 12:01Speaker 7: open A and Almonds talked about the others that work
- 12:04Speaker 7: with the government but I think.
- 12:05Speaker 6: For them, like it got them into very precarious.
- 12:08Speaker 7: Situations supply chain risk and others, And it's a cautionary
- 12:12Speaker 7: tale right in terms of what's happening. Others will gain
- 12:15Speaker 7: from that opportunity. But look, this is we're going into
- 12:19Speaker 7: unprecedented territory. But I think anthropic, Like last Friday Night,
- 12:23Speaker 7: that was a I think that was.
- 12:25Speaker 6: A black Eyes situation that they're trying to navigate.
- 12:29Speaker 2: Are we gonna get anthropic and open eye IPO in
- 12:31Speaker 2: twenty twenty six?
- 12:33Speaker 7: Look, I think it's one where I'd be surprised if
- 12:37Speaker 7: that happened twenty six.
- 12:38Speaker 6: I mean, you're about SpaceX and others. Yeah, but when.
- 12:42Speaker 7: You get supply chain designation doubt from the Pentagon, which
- 12:45Speaker 7: essentially is the same as Huawei, Yeah, that's uh, you're
- 12:49Speaker 7: not digesting that over in a cabernet over the weekend.
- 12:53Speaker 3: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
- 13:00Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
- 13:03Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
- 13:06Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
- 13:10Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 13:14Speaker 2: Skip talk to the real estate business, and we always
- 13:17Speaker 2: like to talk about the commercial real estate business because
- 13:19Speaker 2: we're in New York City, just with amazing real estate
- 13:23Speaker 2: here in town, and we have Morgan Stanley.
- 13:27Speaker 3: We've talked about this before.
- 13:28Speaker 2: Lauren Hawkfelder, head of Global real Estate Assets at Morgan Stanley.
- 13:32Speaker 2: And as long as I've been in this business, since
- 13:33Speaker 2: the mid eighties, it's been Morgan Stanley really the leaders
- 13:36Speaker 2: in the investment banking side of real estate and the
- 13:39Speaker 2: ownership of real estate.
- 13:41Speaker 3: Lauren, thanks so much for joining us here. Is the
- 13:44Speaker 3: worst behind us?
- 13:45Speaker 4: Here?
- 13:45Speaker 2: Do you think?
- 13:46Speaker 8: Thank you for having me first of all? And yes,
- 13:48Speaker 8: I absolutely think the worst is behind us. I think
- 13:51Speaker 8: we talked the last time we were together that it
- 13:53Speaker 8: felt like a bottom was forming, and I think today
- 13:56Speaker 8: there's pretty clear evidence it has formed. Clear evidence on
- 14:01Speaker 8: the ground when we look at public markets, when we
- 14:03Speaker 8: look at private capital formation, we're feeling pretty good.
- 14:06Speaker 5: Yeah, well, Laurien, I think one of the things that
- 14:08Speaker 5: you cited as part of this improving process is the
- 14:10Speaker 5: fact that the cost of capital is falling right and
- 14:13Speaker 5: debt market's also more favorable to real estate borrowers. How
- 14:17Speaker 5: durable do you think that development will be.
- 14:20Speaker 8: Yeah, so debt markets are wide open. Real estate lending
- 14:24Speaker 8: last year was up thirty percent and across categories, So
- 14:28Speaker 8: even the banks are back, and I think perhaps most interestingly,
- 14:32Speaker 8: you know, in the beginning it was sort of a
- 14:34Speaker 8: pretty narrow subset of what lenders would lend to. Today
- 14:37Speaker 8: they're even lending to office and so you know what
- 14:39Speaker 8: they say, when the corpse has a pulse, you can
- 14:41Speaker 8: that you can infer what's going on in the market.
- 14:44Speaker 2: All right, So, as I understand it, we have a
- 14:46Speaker 2: housing shortage in this country. Let's say I'm entrepreneurial, I
- 14:49Speaker 2: want to build a multi family community out.
- 14:52Speaker 3: There or some type of property. Where am I going
- 14:54Speaker 3: to get the capital to do that?
- 14:56Speaker 8: Yeah, So look, real estate lending is absolutely back, or
- 15:00Speaker 8: multifamily in particular, certainly a bit less on the construction
- 15:04Speaker 8: lending side, and I think for good reason. So in
- 15:08Speaker 8: the US in particular, what ends every cycle. It's new supply, right,
- 15:13Speaker 8: Rents run, values run, and builders build. It is a
- 15:16Speaker 8: very efficient supply side response, and we saw a lot
- 15:19Speaker 8: of excess supply this time around. So fortunately we've seen
- 15:23Speaker 8: a real pullback in that.
- 15:25Speaker 5: What could happend this development here? The fact that it
- 15:29Speaker 5: is on the rise. I mean, we have seen a
- 15:31Speaker 5: few macro stories unfolding this week that are quite major,
- 15:37Speaker 5: and so is any of that kind of potential halt
- 15:42Speaker 5: or that could potentially stop the recovery that we've seen
- 15:45Speaker 5: so far invested.
- 15:46Speaker 8: Look, the perspective matters, and I look across Morgan Stanley's
- 15:50Speaker 8: real assets business. We own real estate assets, infrastructure assets, equity, credit, etc.
- 15:57Speaker 8: And so we have a really global perspective, and I
- 15:59Speaker 8: would say, of course all of this geopolitical risk has
- 16:04Speaker 8: massive implications. The difference perhaps is that whereas the broader
- 16:08Speaker 8: investible universe is at all time highs and facing a
- 16:11Speaker 8: lot of volatility in the public markets, real estate values
- 16:15Speaker 8: are still down roughly twenty percent as you look across
- 16:18Speaker 8: the world, and so you have a really attractive entry point.
- 16:21Speaker 8: You have as your reference cost to capital going down,
- 16:24Speaker 8: and you have new construction down. So when you put
- 16:27Speaker 8: aside all of the noise, I think the relative value
- 16:30Speaker 8: proposition for real estate is really strong. And when you
- 16:33Speaker 8: think about the flow through risks created by some of
- 16:35Speaker 8: this geopolitical these dynamics, it's inflation, it's a risk off appetite,
- 16:43Speaker 8: and what do we know about real estate. Real estate
- 16:46Speaker 8: is a pretty effective inflation head and it tends to
- 16:49Speaker 8: be a lower risk asset class with durable cash flow,
- 16:52Speaker 8: among other things.
- 16:54Speaker 2: Well, and you say one of your higher conviction real
- 16:56Speaker 2: estate strategies is industrial. Does that include this the data
- 17:00Speaker 2: center thing or is that something different?
- 17:02Speaker 8: So data centers tend to be adjacent to industrial. We
- 17:06Speaker 8: do invest in data centers as well, in particular in
- 17:09Speaker 8: our infrastructure business. But i'd say when you look, actually,
- 17:13Speaker 8: AI is really impacting both data centers and industrial.
- 17:18Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 17:18Speaker 5: Well, one of the things that you're looking at as
- 17:21Speaker 5: well in terms of high conviction areas of senior housing.
- 17:24Speaker 5: What's been the trend there?
- 17:26Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 17:26Speaker 8: Well, look, in investing, you have knowns and unknowns, And
- 17:29Speaker 8: one thing we know for sure is that our population
- 17:32Speaker 8: is getting older and with that, our housing needs change.
- 17:35Speaker 3: So the eighty.
- 17:37Speaker 8: Plus population in this country is growing at nearly five
- 17:40Speaker 8: percent against a backdrop of the overall population dead flat,
- 17:44Speaker 8: and so we have a lot of growth in that segment.
- 17:46Speaker 6: And by the.
- 17:47Speaker 8: Way, they control a lot of the wealth in this country.
- 17:50Speaker 8: They control more than fifty percent of the wealth, so
- 17:52Speaker 8: you have a lot of them with a lot of money.
- 17:54Speaker 8: That is a lot of demand for senior housing, and
- 17:56Speaker 8: we're seeing across our portfolio a lot of growth.
- 17:59Speaker 3: All right, before we let you go just office.
- 18:03Speaker 2: If I want to go buy an office building on
- 18:05Speaker 2: Third Avenue on forty eighth Street, what should my bid
- 18:08Speaker 2: b relative to like the last transactions? Right?
- 18:11Speaker 3: Am I coming in at a fifty percent discount? Thirty percent?
- 18:14Speaker 3: Or is that thing already cleared?
- 18:15Speaker 8: Maybe? Well, here's what's so interesting is we debated for years,
- 18:18Speaker 8: including here with you, the sort of return to office trend, right,
- 18:22Speaker 8: would work from home just decimate office? Unfortunately, I think
- 18:26Speaker 8: that debate is over. People are back in the office.
- 18:30Speaker 8: But now what you're seeing is this new debate of
- 18:32Speaker 8: the AI office scare right, and we are all the
- 18:36Speaker 8: jobs going from Third Avenue and forty seventh Street to
- 18:39Speaker 8: data centers in god knows where. We still think that
- 18:42Speaker 8: the highest quality office will really prevail.
- 18:46Speaker 2: So that AA plus story that's still to play. What
- 18:49Speaker 2: are we doing now for the B and C? Does
- 18:51Speaker 2: that stuff just clear at a price? Does it get
- 18:54Speaker 2: torn down?
- 18:55Speaker 6: Like?
- 18:56Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't know.
- 18:57Speaker 8: I think that there is going to be a reasonable
- 18:59Speaker 8: amount of casion. Okay, so there's demand destruction and their
- 19:03Speaker 8: higher and better uses of these pieces of clay. That's
- 19:06Speaker 8: just the reality. Now we need the private and public
- 19:09Speaker 8: sector to come together to make those economically viable.
- 19:12Speaker 2: So why is Morgan Stanley so good have been forever
- 19:15Speaker 2: in real estate? Is it just you've had a commitment
- 19:17Speaker 2: through cycles that maybe others didn't.
- 19:20Speaker 8: We have an extraordinary team, and we have the combination
- 19:23Speaker 8: of a global perspective, right and being part of Morgan Stanley,
- 19:27Speaker 8: the best economists in the world, the best global perspective,
- 19:30Speaker 8: but amazing local teams and real estate is fundamentally local law.
- 19:35Speaker 6: Business.
- 19:35Speaker 1: Yep, this is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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- 20:02Speaker 2: Yeah