Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / ⚠️FED RUG PULL AT 2.35PM + Stock Market News 12 June 2024

Transcript

⚠️FED RUG PULL AT 2.35PM + Stock Market News 12 June 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All righty-ho guys.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: I was rug pulled, indeed, like what the heck was that all about?
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Some sort of weird YouTube live streaming disaster on a beautiful day like this, but they can't spoil our fun today.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: It is the day We've all been waiting for.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: The markets are glorious and everything else, so I appreciate you being here.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I think we did two streams and people ended up in the wrong one and all that kind of thing.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Some restream, slash YouTube shenanigans, but I suspect you don't care.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Someone is going to take the other one offline so that people are not stumbling into the wrong stream here.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Thank you for finding your way over here.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: What the heck just happened?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Inflation, my friends.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Inflation is the glorious thing that you were hoping it would be.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: It is better than expected.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: The angels will sing tonight and all that kind of stuff, and I want to walk you through what's going to happen today markets, what the Fed's about to do today and why this really, really, really really freaking matters.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: I was looking as lost as Biden.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I was doing my best Biden impression.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: I managed to duplicate a stream and do all of that in a minute or so, so shall I share my screen with you?
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: I suspect I probably should.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I've also got something Trade Vision.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: You know what that is Options Watch Rebrand.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Today is the day we're about to launch two times daily trade alerts, access to paired dark pool trades all this excitement.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: That's all coming on the 21st of June.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: If you join before, then you will get all of that stuff A completely for free for a month, and then, if you do join the premium tier, which is like 19 bucks or something, you will get this for free as well.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: If you join later, you're going to have to pay more for it.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Because we want to say thank you to our early supporters.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: So if you haven't already signed up over there, it's the one risk-free thing you can do today and it'll give you tremendous data and insight.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: But let's look at this.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Let's color code this like we're five.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Core inflation rate came in at 0.2%.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Yay, that makes me very, very happy.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Draw some bunny ears.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: That's how happy we are.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: That's lower than the consensus.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Core inflation rate has dropped.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: That is also very, very wonderful.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: It's not happy.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Looks a bit like a drunk man, doesn't it?
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Pretty happy, doesn't it?
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Inflation rate is 0% 0%.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: I imagine Biden is going to go on TV today and say we have defeated inflation.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: I can't do a Biden impression.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I've actually never really listened to the man much, I must say.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Well, we're expecting 0.1.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: So 0.0 is again glorious.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: So start singing, get celebrating.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: The market is going to rally, the Fed's going to flip.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Jp Morgan was wrong, by the way.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: They said 0.3% and get worried a lot and all that kind of stuff.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: They were utterly utterly wrong.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: And look at this the Fed's favorite inflation number, which is core inflation, is down here at 3.42%, and that's pretty sweet because we haven't been there since like early 2021 and it's pointing down right.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: So Papa Powell is going to be doing a little morning dance, having an extra sherry and all of that.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: He'll be in a good mood today, which is what we want him to be.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Inflation is back to where it was in.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Let me show you that, if we may, microsoft.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Microsoft says no, don't show them the real data.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: We don't like it.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: We are basically back to where we were in December.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: That was December.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: And what was happening in December?
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: If you remember that vaguely, in the fog of your memory, the market had priced in not one, not two, but six rate caps.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: We are back at that inflation level.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: So what the hell is there to worry about with inflation?
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: This low right flipping our flapjacks absolutely, absolutely wonderful.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Fed is not going to cut, but if they do, politics, biden needs all that we can get interesting.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about that in a second.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Jimmy, thanks very much for the Options Watch, which is now Trade Vision.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: It's rebranded today.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: You'll be noticing that in the next couple of days.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: It's already live, by the way.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: I'll show you in a second.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: So, by the way, I'll show you in a second.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: So this is fantastic Fantastique, as they say and we have the lowest rate increase here since July 2022, when things started to really improve in terms of inflation.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: So very, very good news for the market, very, very good news for the Fed.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: And look at this the Fed isn't about to flip at 235 today.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: The Fed's already flipped.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: The Fed is doing what.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: The Fed is printing money again.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Yes, they're printing the good stuff.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: They enjoyed it so much in 2020.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: They just thought let's just a little bit, just a little bit.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Just try just a couple of billion.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: No one's really going to notice.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Nobody will be any the wiser.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Who the heck looks at M2 year-on-year change charts?
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Nobody, no one's going to notice this.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: They're printing money again.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Because actually it's probably the smart thing to do, because interest rates are too high.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: So if you want to avoid a recession and you want to have some hopes for a Goldilocks soft landing to get El Presidente reelected, then they better stop printing some money if they're not cutting rates.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Now, this here was from JP Morgan.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: This came out before the inflation data came out, came out as a cross-dresser.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: He said JP Morgan, my clients are trimming safety and adding to longs, meaning they're getting more bullish.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: There's no panic.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Very little risk being applied.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Clients are worried about missing upside, not downside.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Imagine how those clients feel right now after the lower inflation data.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: They're going to be like told you, we should have put more money in the market, right?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: That's exactly what's going on here Now.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Today is also a Fed Day, where we celebrate the chosen one, and not only are we going to get rate decisions which will be a zero nil point kind of a rate decision.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Nothing will happen there.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: But straight after that, papa Powell is going to speak to us for about half an hour and he'd be grilled by all the Muppets you see on CNBC and so on that press conference.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: He's going to be walking out there with a smile and a swagger and he's going to be going.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: I did it.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: I did it.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: I printed more money than anybody's ever printed in the history of the world.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Zimbabwean central bank is jealous of me, yet I'm taming inflation.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: That's what he's going to say.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: So the market's going to like it.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: So what happens now?
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Well, okay, so today there are zero rate cuts.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Right, that's not going to happen, but the Fed will be more optimistic because they can be because of today's data.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: And I would say, cuts in July or September are back on the cards or on the table, and that was something we weren't looking at before.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: We were looking at, like, end of year rate cuts.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: So the market is a fickle beast and she's lovely, and today is a good day for low inflation.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Now, could this all change in a month's time?
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Yes, it could, but I think there is room for some optimism here.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Right, that there are, you know, 0% inflation.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good, right?
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: What else is going up?
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Apple?
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Do you see that Apple really, really broke out of this resistance zone here?
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Right, really broke out of it, massive.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: The funny thing is I put on a positive Apple trade.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: On Monday, some of you guys messaged me and said thanks very much for the Apple trade Did well, up 60%.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I seem to have fat fingered it and put it on the wrong way around, so I think we're down about $500.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: It's all right, we'll survive.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: But yeah, be careful with trade execution.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Another reason we're going to eventually put that into trade vision so that we can't fat finger things anymore.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: But yeah, there we are.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: So that's important, that's exciting.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Shall we have a look at the market.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Do you want to look at the market?
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Do you want to see the market, or would you rather just be like, nah, don't really care much today?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Only good news.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: I don't like the good news.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Look at that.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Nvidia up 1.8%.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Google up 0.7.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Meta up 1.5%.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Microsoft up a percentage point.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Amazon's up.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Tesla is up.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Berkshire's up, jp Morgan's up.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Amd is up.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Abgo is up 2.6%.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: It is a good day to be a stock investor, unless you short, in which case you know you had it coming, didn't you?
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: What's up 7.5% here?
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Oracle 7.5% up.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: It's like 1999 and the party continues.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Isn't that lovely, kingo?
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: You messed up the Apple puts as well.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Why did we both do that?
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Isn't that weird Found the right stream, logan.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, sorry about that.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: We had a bit of a.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: You know, winston ate my homework.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: No, sometimes this happens.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: I use a thing called Restream and it allows me to stream to like Twitter and Facebook and YouTube and so on, and it works like 99% of the time, but occasionally it seems to like create its own stream and then I've got two streams and then I got to kill one and I got to start the other one and it's a bit of a disaster, but you know, it keeps life exciting.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: So today is a very, very, very nice, good green day for us stock investors and two things I want to look at.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: One is Fed fund futures.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Where are they?
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Hang on one sec.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Let me find the chart for you here.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: By the way, if you want to get trend alerts like these every single day, we're going to make this two times a day, so you're going to get the midday as well the change in significant changes in stock trends every single day for the big stocks, and there'll be charts in it and everything else.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: That's starting on the 21st.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: If you sign up for it now, it won't cost you anything extra.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: You sign up for it after the 21st, it'll cost you something extra.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: So grab yourself a free one-month trial subscription with you.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Trade Vision down below, which is the new Options Watch, options Watch is having a reincarnation.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: She woke up one morning and said, daddy, I think I identify as Trade Vision, so what did I want to show you?
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I wanted to look at the Fed fund futures.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Here we go, which is an exciting thing that CME puts out and it basically tells you what does the market expect in terms of rate cuts.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: So today, 99% of the market in June is expecting no rate cuts.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: So today, 99% of the market in June is expecting no rate cuts.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: In July, 85% of the market see no rate cut, but 14% see a cut.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Now that's an improvement of 2.5%.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: And, let's face it, most bankers are still too hungover to really realize what happened here.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Right, they're going to go to the office and someone's going to make them some coffees and a few Celsius drinks, and then they're going to explain it to them what this means using simple drawings.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: But look at this.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Yesterday, 46% of the market thought we were going to get a rate cut in September.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Today, it is 62% 10% of the market now thinking we're going to get two rate cuts.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: So that is a change of 20% on basis of today.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: This is going to get bigger in my view.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: So now people 10% of the market think we're going to get two cuts by September and then in November.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Cuts by September and then in November.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Consensus is still for one cut, but the two cuts are getting much, much bigger.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: More than 10% increase here and then by December, I think by the end of the day, we will have priced in three cuts once again.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: So this is one, two, three see 25%.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Almost 30% of the market is now pricing in three cuts or more.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: That was not the case yesterday, so double the number of people expect three cuts now from half an hour ago.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: That's good news.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: That's very, very good news.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Make sure you get yourself that trend alert.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Tradevisionio is what it's now called.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: I think it's rather snazzy.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: How do you utilize the trend?
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: A lot, great question.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Okay, so it shows up in a couple of places, right, so you got it in the background here.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: You can turn it on or off.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: It's toggled on naturally, literally.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Look at it.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: And when it goes from red to green, like here, like, so that's bullish.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Right, it goes back to red.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: That like so that's bullish, right, it goes back to red, that's bearish.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: It's pretty good, wasn't it?
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: You would have sold somewhere here, right, made some money on the way down.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: You would have bought back in here, made a lot of money on the way up, would have gone all the way down here.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: If you used options to do this, you'd make an absolute freaking killing, like, I mean seriously.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: Or here, right, entry point, here, and then you ride the journey up to today.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: That was, I mean, let's just say you get in late, right, because you're half asleep.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: That was a 30%, 30 point move just on Apple, and it works on every stock.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: I thought it would only work on the big ones, to be honest, but it seems to work on everything.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: I originally built this for the S&P, but it seems to work on everything.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: And then we email you when there are changes.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: So we scan like 2000 stocks and therefore you don't have to click through everything because that will be really, really irritating, right?
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: So you get emails.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: At the moment you get one a day.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: At the end of the day, shortly you're going to be getting two, so one on midday and it'll also be showing up in the screener so you'll be able to have a watch list and it'll show you here like what the indicator is saying, so you'll be able to filter and sort by that as well.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: That's all coming around about the 21st of this month, so about 10 days or so.