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BlackRock as Fed Chair?📉Crypto Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: We have musical chairs in the fed chair position, and
0:03
Speaker 1: today we're going to break it down for you because
0:05
Speaker 1: it does matter to how crypto is going to respond.
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Speaker 1: get into it today. I want to start with a
1:01
Speaker 1: clip coming out of Davos, and this is a good
1:05
Speaker 1: one because it's got cz talking about a supercycle. Take
1:08
Speaker 1: a look.
1:09
Speaker 2: So do you have any thought though, real quick on
1:12
Speaker 2: just like the price of bitcoin and where this is
1:14
Speaker 2: all headed. Do you think we're in a winter a
1:16
Speaker 2: summer cycle? Are you with Kathy Wood who thinks it's
1:20
Speaker 2: going to turn into a million dollars a coin?
1:22
Speaker 3: So whenever people ask that question, I always got to
1:24
Speaker 3: ask them, what's the time from you looking at If
1:26
Speaker 3: you look at today, tomorrow or a daily basis, there's
1:29
Speaker 3: no way I can predict if you look at a ten, five,
1:32
Speaker 3: ten year horizon, it's very easy to predict we're gonna
1:35
Speaker 3: go up. If you look at a one year horizon,
1:37
Speaker 3: which is like what the most of the common framework
1:41
Speaker 3: is twenty twenty six, I'm not sure you may be.
1:44
Speaker 3: I think I have very strong feelings that you will
1:47
Speaker 3: probably be a supercycle.
1:49
Speaker 2: Be a supercycle twenty twenty six, Yeah, for bitcoin?
1:51
Speaker 4: For bitcoin?
1:51
Speaker 2: And what supercycle to you means?
1:53
Speaker 5: What?
1:53
Speaker 3: Well, normally bitcoin follows four your cycles historically, if you
1:57
Speaker 3: look at his historic data, like every four years, you
1:59
Speaker 3: know there's a all time high and then there's a drop.
2:02
Speaker 3: But I think this year, given the US being so
2:04
Speaker 3: pro pro crypto and every other country is kind of following,
2:08
Speaker 3: I do think we will see this. We will probably
2:11
Speaker 3: break the four year cycle.
2:13
Speaker 1: All right. Well, there you have it, coming from c Z.
2:17
Speaker 1: Last year he was actually in a federal prison. Now
2:20
Speaker 1: he's sent Davos, So I don't know. World's upside down. Well,
2:24
Speaker 1: welcome to the upside down world. Let's get into it
2:26
Speaker 1: today with my most favorite upside down trader, that is
2:32
Speaker 1: how's it going, Evan?
2:33
Speaker 6: I like the intro. It's a pleasure to be on Paul.
2:35
Speaker 6: I'm living life and being fantastic.
2:38
Speaker 1: I like it. Hey, if you guys haven't visited Evan's channel,
2:41
Speaker 1: jump over there. Evan, although over on YouTube, does a
2:43
Speaker 1: lot of live streams, trading, some digital nomad discussions, all
2:49
Speaker 1: kinds of cool stuff that he's got, So check it out. Hey, Evan,
2:52
Speaker 1: let's get into bitcoin. CZ's over here calling for a supercycle.
2:58
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit more conservative. I'm not sure we're
3:00
Speaker 1: in for a supercycle on bitcoin this year, but hey,
3:02
Speaker 1: maybe we are. You know, what do you think? Where
3:06
Speaker 1: do where does bitcoin stand? Right now?
3:08
Speaker 7: Well?
3:09
Speaker 6: I think we've already kind of invalidated supercycle. I think
3:11
Speaker 6: we would have, you know, kept going up since October
3:13
Speaker 6: if you're in the true, you know, aspect of a supercycle.
3:16
Speaker 6: You know, we're in already kind of almost a five
3:18
Speaker 6: month bear market for bitcoin unfortunately, So I mean, I
3:21
Speaker 6: guess things could change. But I'll share my chart here
3:24
Speaker 6: and i'll show you, you know, trying to be as
3:27
Speaker 6: objective as possible on our bitcoin chart. The first thing
3:31
Speaker 6: that I'm looking at here is comparatively on your six
3:33
Speaker 6: day your money flow. The main thing that I like
3:36
Speaker 6: to look at the market side for one of the
3:37
Speaker 6: best things to use market sipher for curvature on money
3:41
Speaker 6: flow on higher timeframes. You're coming into the red right here,
3:44
Speaker 6: very similar to where I drew this line out back
3:47
Speaker 6: in twenty twenty two, dropping downward. You could even go
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Speaker 6: back to twenty eighteen in some ways. Now. The bright
3:52
Speaker 6: side here is I think you're going to bottom out
3:54
Speaker 6: a lot earlier than you know, previous cycles. It's going
3:56
Speaker 6: to be earlier than December, probably a lot earlier than
3:59
Speaker 6: a November as well. But the main area I'm looking
4:03
Speaker 6: at is your two hundred SMA and a lot of
4:05
Speaker 6: these charts like you're six day and you're weekly, and
4:08
Speaker 6: that's going to be you know, around sixty k right
4:10
Speaker 6: now by the time you hit it, maybe a little
4:12
Speaker 6: bit higher. But this, unfortunately, does you know, give us
4:17
Speaker 6: a bearish perspective on the macro for the next few months.
4:20
Speaker 6: That's kind of the bad news, you know, I would
4:22
Speaker 6: have here. You got to be as objective as possible.
4:24
Speaker 6: It doesn't look too good. The good news is if
4:27
Speaker 6: you're a short term person, potentially, I mean, this is
4:30
Speaker 6: just it's an ascending wedge. These you do normally break bearish,
4:34
Speaker 6: but maybe you could just maybe I wouldn't roll out completely,
4:37
Speaker 6: but just maybe things could surprise us over the next
4:41
Speaker 6: week into the FOMC and maybe jump up to one
4:44
Speaker 6: hundred K or some of these levels up here. But honestly,
4:47
Speaker 6: if I want to be as objective as possible, I
4:48
Speaker 6: think you're going to break downward from this kind of
4:52
Speaker 6: bear flag ascending wedge right here and hit kind of
4:55
Speaker 6: your seventy something dollar mark. But fortunately, I think you
4:59
Speaker 6: know you don't I really want a supercycle, That's what
5:01
Speaker 6: I'm gonna say. I don't want a supercycle because I
5:03
Speaker 6: want to get bitcoin cheaper and I want to outperform
5:06
Speaker 6: the S and P five hundred for the next few years.
5:08
Speaker 6: So if I can get in at fifty sixty K
5:11
Speaker 6: those marks, anything under seventy K, I think I'm going
5:14
Speaker 6: to be able to get a two or three X
5:15
Speaker 6: for bitcoin as opposed to maybe just a two X
5:19
Speaker 6: rather than buying, you know, at ninety K or one
5:21
Speaker 6: hundred k those areas. Are you?
5:23
Speaker 1: So are you calling for a fifty to sixty K
5:26
Speaker 1: bitcoin in twenty twenty six, hopefully by May?
5:31
Speaker 6: Yeah, hopefully quicker rip the band aid off, hopefully fifty
5:34
Speaker 6: to sixty k. You know, I don't think on my bottom,
5:38
Speaker 6: I think, unless something crazy happens, is forty eight K.
5:41
Speaker 6: So I think what's very attractive to me is sixty K.
5:45
Speaker 1: All right, sixty k on the hold there. I mean,
5:47
Speaker 1: if you look at what's happening in gold and silver,
5:51
Speaker 1: many people might say that, yeah, a lot of this
5:53
Speaker 1: flight of capital has come out of crypto into gold
5:56
Speaker 1: and silver right now, retail investors right now piling in
5:59
Speaker 1: to old and silver. Silver just broke a hundred bucks.
6:03
Speaker 1: We've been looking at this for quite some time. If
6:05
Speaker 1: you'd followed our channel, We've had a couple of silver
6:07
Speaker 1: and gold experts on as far back as six months ago,
6:11
Speaker 1: so really kind of tying in to where the potential
6:14
Speaker 1: might be. Do you think gold and silver stop where
6:17
Speaker 1: they are right now five K one hundred because there's
6:20
Speaker 1: some people calling for a four hundred dollars silver.
6:22
Speaker 6: Now four hundred dollars silver could be ten to twenty
6:26
Speaker 6: years away. I think that Powell ex so I like
6:29
Speaker 6: it ten years maybe mid twenty thirties. I could see
6:33
Speaker 6: that three hundred. I think that, you know, I think
6:35
Speaker 6: that you're very close to the tops of this. I
6:37
Speaker 6: think if your pal, you're going to do everything your
6:39
Speaker 6: power to kind of bring those down a bit. And
6:41
Speaker 6: I think unfortunately I want to say that money is
6:44
Speaker 6: going to go over into Biglin, but I think it's
6:45
Speaker 6: going to take a few months because I think people
6:47
Speaker 6: are going to be more concerned, They're going to put money,
6:49
Speaker 6: more money into things like energy, uranium, other metals for
6:54
Speaker 6: just a few months into April into May, into June,
6:57
Speaker 6: and then from there once the new FED share gets
7:00
Speaker 6: and you'll see more money going to bitcoin ethereum and
7:03
Speaker 6: more risk on assets. But gold and silver I think
7:06
Speaker 6: are pretty risky to buy at these points. Hitting big areas,
7:10
Speaker 6: and I think, if your power man, do you want
7:13
Speaker 6: your legacy to be going out with silver up four
7:15
Speaker 6: hundred percent or whatever. I don't think so.
7:17
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm looking at the gold chart right now
7:19
Speaker 1: getting ready to hit five k. And then of course
7:22
Speaker 1: you look at SLV or just silver in general right
7:25
Speaker 1: now trading at one on one, so it's now broken
7:27
Speaker 1: through that one hundred dollars mark. As we're recording this.
7:31
Speaker 1: Copper of course not far behind it. It's very active
7:34
Speaker 1: on the year. I had Andy Sheman on earlier this week.
7:38
Speaker 1: He recommended just going into the copper stocks, some of
7:40
Speaker 1: the companies that are related to the play. Would you
7:45
Speaker 1: go into copper right now? Based on this?
7:48
Speaker 6: What's more attractive to me than copper? If you look
7:51
Speaker 6: at the copper charts, copper normally is just always leads
7:54
Speaker 6: against gold. What's more attractive to me is uranium and
7:57
Speaker 6: energy type stuff, even lithium so uranium ETFs are a
8:01
Speaker 6: little bit more attractive. I don't think copper will do bad,
8:04
Speaker 6: but I would be I like the fundamentals on uranium,
8:06
Speaker 6: the energy kind of sectors, and lithium a little bit more.
8:09
Speaker 1: If you were to call it today, you think there's
8:12
Speaker 1: going to be a lag between what we'll see coming
8:15
Speaker 1: out of the metals market. You think that might be
8:17
Speaker 1: going back at whether it's energy. Do you think the
8:19
Speaker 1: AI play has any possibilities?
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Speaker 6: AI looks very similar to how crypto looked in February
8:25
Speaker 6: of twenty twenty two. We're about to get to the
8:27
Speaker 6: AI super bowl. I think AI is going to be
8:29
Speaker 6: a sell off. I think a lot of these markets
8:32
Speaker 6: S and P five hundred Nasdaq will come down for
8:34
Speaker 6: a few months, as they should. We need a healthy correction.
8:37
Speaker 6: They're nothing insane, but I could see us some P
8:39
Speaker 6: five hundred coming down about ten percent, maybe fifteen percent,
8:42
Speaker 6: maybe twenty percent for the Nasdaq. Yeah, those situations. I
8:45
Speaker 6: think the big thing we want to realize is, look
8:47
Speaker 6: what happened the last time Powell paused after some rate cuts.
8:51
Speaker 6: It was January of twenty twenty five. You came down.
8:55
Speaker 6: You know. I think the same thing i'll happen this time.
8:56
Speaker 6: You also were rhyming more with some tariff scares as well.
9:01
Speaker 6: We're also rhyming with twenty twenty two in some ways
9:04
Speaker 6: where energy is looking very attractive, where your ETFs like
9:08
Speaker 6: XL will probably go up and that's kind of the
9:10
Speaker 6: safest bed I think for energy and diversified ETF with
9:13
Speaker 6: it for the next four to six months and then
9:15
Speaker 6: convert back to crypto. That's what I think, and the
9:18
Speaker 6: no brainer there would be just wait till the new
9:20
Speaker 6: FED share comes in, wait till they start cutting. Most
9:23
Speaker 6: likely all coins will start to help perform silver. We're
9:27
Speaker 6: most likely how to perform big point, and that's just
9:29
Speaker 6: standard monetary policy as we've always seen it.
9:33
Speaker 1: Before we go into that, I want to flip over
9:35
Speaker 1: to Tom Lee, and he is and has an interesting
9:41
Speaker 1: statement on why this dip is important.
9:44
Speaker 7: To take a look Scott, I think so, you know,
9:47
Speaker 7: i'd say on Monday morning before the open, I think
9:51
Speaker 7: investors were very concerned about Greenlands and what's happened in Japan,
9:56
Speaker 7: and they thought of twenty you know, twenty twenty five,
9:59
Speaker 7: when it took eight weeks for stock to find their
10:02
Speaker 7: low down twenty percent, So I think there was a
10:04
Speaker 7: lot of fear. So today's news really does do a
10:07
Speaker 7: lot to diffuse a lot of that anxiety, and I
10:10
Speaker 7: think it's wise to buy that dip.
10:13
Speaker 1: Positive as you might sound for a bear market sometime
10:17
Speaker 1: around mid year, that's right, Scott.
10:21
Speaker 7: I think we have been pretty clear that we think
10:25
Speaker 7: that there is going to be a mid year pickup.
10:28
Speaker 4: It could be around policy, or it could be around
10:30
Speaker 4: the new FED being challenged, but that's coming from US
10:34
Speaker 4: markets being at a higher level. And I think one
10:36
Speaker 4: of the mistakes people make whenever they hear that commentary
10:40
Speaker 4: is they think it needs to go to cash. Now,
10:43
Speaker 4: as you know, we've advised to stay invested and to
10:46
Speaker 4: buy the dip. Investors shouldn't self as unless they're great
10:49
Speaker 4: at timing, we can recover all that loss within six
10:52
Speaker 4: weeks and we are expecting a really strong finish for
10:55
Speaker 4: the year.
10:56
Speaker 1: All right, So I want to show you something here,
10:58
Speaker 1: Evan and get your opinion. This, of course was Liberation
11:01
Speaker 1: Day here in April twenty twenty five. You saw the
11:03
Speaker 1: bleed off of tariffs, and maybe we are in that
11:06
Speaker 1: correction phase because once that kind of leveled out and
11:10
Speaker 1: we started seeing taco you know, Trump always chickens out
11:14
Speaker 1: on these things, which is kind of where we are now.
11:16
Speaker 1: Bitcoin takes a run, you know, it runs from well,
11:19
Speaker 1: were we right on that bottom at around seventy eight
11:21
Speaker 1: or seventy six K running to that local top at
11:24
Speaker 1: around one to eleven. Do you think that happens after
11:28
Speaker 1: post midyear? Is that when you would say bitcoin could
11:31
Speaker 1: be on its rise again?
11:34
Speaker 6: Yeah, most likely. And the other thing you mentioned, the
11:36
Speaker 6: Clarity Act, I think that may I haven't been following
11:39
Speaker 6: it too too closely, but I think that may pass
11:41
Speaker 6: before midterms. The want to pass that before midterms. I
11:44
Speaker 6: would hope that could be another really big by signal,
11:47
Speaker 6: but for a full time recovery up to new all
11:50
Speaker 6: time highs. I mean, I don't think you're going to
11:52
Speaker 6: see that probably until sometime in twenty twenty seven. But
11:56
Speaker 6: you know, I think it's just kind of a patience
11:58
Speaker 6: game right now to get to those points.
12:01
Speaker 1: So yeah, all right, So I got to talk about
12:04
Speaker 1: the real elephant in the room, which is going to
12:06
Speaker 1: be the next FED chair this right now? Odds on
12:10
Speaker 1: black Rocks Rick Reader coming in. He of course, has
12:13
Speaker 1: started to absolutely skyrocket on the polymarket. All zoom in
12:17
Speaker 1: on that real quick right there he is. You can
12:20
Speaker 1: kind of see Reader's position holding at thirty eight, but
12:23
Speaker 1: he was well below even though Kevin warsh is holding
12:26
Speaker 1: at thirty five. Kevin Hafftt has it seems to be
12:29
Speaker 1: out of the race right now, at least the way
12:31
Speaker 1: polymarket is reading it. If Reader comes in and we
12:35
Speaker 1: get him as a FED chair, which is he's already
12:37
Speaker 1: shown a propensity to be very pro Trump policies and strategies,
12:44
Speaker 1: this immediately goes to deep cuts from the FED, which
12:49
Speaker 1: could happen maybe as early as latter half of second quarter,
12:54
Speaker 1: mainly depending on when they actually confirm him. But what
12:58
Speaker 1: do you think would happen if we actually got a
13:01
Speaker 1: fifty basis point or even one hundred basis points coming
13:03
Speaker 1: off FED rate?
13:06
Speaker 6: Well, I mean, I don't think that's likely to get fifty.
13:09
Speaker 6: It'd obviously be extremely bullish. Things would go crazy. I
13:11
Speaker 6: think if you got one hundred basis points that would
13:13
Speaker 6: be not good for inflation. I think that would be irresponsible.
13:16
Speaker 6: There's other people too, I mean, I think I've forgotten
13:19
Speaker 6: a lot. Is there's other people on the board that
13:22
Speaker 6: have to go along with it. So I think he
13:24
Speaker 6: can get a few rate cuts, and you'll probably see
13:26
Speaker 6: one in June, probably two or three more into the
13:29
Speaker 6: end of the year, probably just twenty five basis point
13:31
Speaker 6: cuts I would assume based on everyone else. I mean,
13:34
Speaker 6: with the tariffs, there's more scares for higher inflation too.
13:37
Speaker 6: It still feels like inflation is still there, I mean,
13:41
Speaker 6: in my opinion, So I think there's you're not going
13:44
Speaker 6: to see. I mean, unless the S and P five
13:46
Speaker 6: hundred really really craters and there's deeper sessionary fears. I
13:49
Speaker 6: don't think you're going to see any like crazy crazy cuts.
13:54
Speaker 6: I think S and P. Five hundred just doing what
13:56
Speaker 6: it did last year did not invoke any crazy cuts.
13:59
Speaker 6: You saw some cuts, but nothing insane. So you know,
14:03
Speaker 6: unless you're going down more than like fifteen percent three
14:06
Speaker 6: people one hundred, I don't think.
14:08
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit on the other side of this.
14:10
Speaker 1: Mainly last week I was on a CEO panel. There
14:14
Speaker 1: was twenty five CEOs in a round table. Was kind
14:16
Speaker 1: of a back and forth, and they mentioned something for
14:21
Speaker 1: the first time that I had not really considered because
14:25
Speaker 1: these same CEOs they do these things every quarter. Last
14:29
Speaker 1: two quarters have been very bearish on the retail industry.
14:34
Speaker 1: And the reason was is inflation's perception here in the
14:37
Speaker 1: United States, and obviously energy costs have skyrocketed down, which
14:41
Speaker 1: has caused true inflation now to continue to just fall
14:45
Speaker 1: off a cliff. Here we're at one two one. Look
14:47
Speaker 1: where we were just in December holding it a two
14:51
Speaker 1: point sep almost three percent, and then in less than
14:54
Speaker 1: a month. This is the kind of number we're getting.
14:57
Speaker 1: And this aligns with what these ce told me last week,
15:01
Speaker 1: and that was that they're actually seeing higher foot traffic,
15:06
Speaker 1: people spending more money, and they're looking at starting to
15:10
Speaker 1: hire again. So all of those are very intriguing because
15:14
Speaker 1: that stabilizes the concern I have had for a long
15:17
Speaker 1: time job market. And if Powell is setting here now,
15:21
Speaker 1: which I mean, could we even be nearing disinflation, wouldn't
15:25
Speaker 1: that put him in a position where he'd have to
15:27
Speaker 1: cut Yeah.
15:29
Speaker 6: I don't think we're going to see disinflation, Matt. I
15:31
Speaker 6: just I think it could take a few months for
15:33
Speaker 6: that to really for us to really feel that, you know,
15:36
Speaker 6: May into June or whatever. That's when I'm still thinking,
15:39
Speaker 6: I think it's going to take a few months here
15:42
Speaker 6: for the energy of the people. I just think AI
15:45
Speaker 6: is in a bubble to a certain extent. We need
15:47
Speaker 6: that to kind of cool off. Things like talent heer
15:50
Speaker 6: I think need to come down for the next few months.
15:52
Speaker 6: It seems like ninety percent of the time when you
15:54
Speaker 6: just see like Super Bowl AI, super Bowl like crypto
15:57
Speaker 6: super Bowl. You know, I think it's going to ryme
15:59
Speaker 6: with some aspects of kind of twenty twenty two. I mean,
16:03
Speaker 6: I'm going to take the side that like, okay, some
16:06
Speaker 6: things for inflation have gone down, I agree, but it
16:09
Speaker 6: seems like it's still higher than fricking one point two
16:12
Speaker 6: percent overall. That's what it is.
16:15
Speaker 1: The big one. Food is the big one that has
16:17
Speaker 1: come down, and energy, of course is the biggest. Obviously,
16:20
Speaker 1: gas prices have come down, and we've also seen rents
16:23
Speaker 1: starting to fall for the first time in a very
16:25
Speaker 1: long time, so very intriguing, and mainly because we've seen
16:29
Speaker 1: some demand on the on the market, at least here
16:31
Speaker 1: in South Florida. We've seen some dan on demand on
16:33
Speaker 1: the real estate market, which we'll and then of course
16:36
Speaker 1: interest rates on lending for mortgage rates now under six percent,
16:40
Speaker 1: so some things there. Speaking of maybe counter positions, I
16:45
Speaker 1: want to play a clip here by Larry Frank by
16:48
Speaker 1: Larry Fink, which is Rick Reader's boss. Listen to what
16:51
Speaker 1: he had to say.
16:52
Speaker 5: Which one's more uncertain. I don't think there's any answertaty,
16:55
Speaker 5: but a there's no question, hundreds of billions of dollars
17:00
Speaker 5: is needed to build this out. The capex is going
17:02
Speaker 5: to dry more global growth. But I'm I'm sincerely believe
17:08
Speaker 5: there is no bubble in the AI space. That being said,
17:12
Speaker 5: like in everything else in capitalism, there's gonna be some
17:15
Speaker 5: big failures. Okay, we always see a rotation, and there's
17:20
Speaker 5: gonna be some huge winners and some losers. But do
17:23
Speaker 5: I believe that needed capital to build out AI is
17:28
Speaker 5: one of the great opportunities for the world to come.
17:32
Speaker 1: All right, So let's just remember while he's saying that
17:37
Speaker 1: that Larry Fink also thought ESG was the biggest thing
17:42
Speaker 1: that would ever happen in mankind. Let's just be clear.
17:45
Speaker 1: You know, he's called these tops before now AI I
17:48
Speaker 1: somewhat agree with him. I'm still concerned that, you know,
17:51
Speaker 1: maybe this is over sold, overbought, I should say. But
17:55
Speaker 1: one thing it will do that I think Blackrock adjacent
17:58
Speaker 1: to that is tokenization and tokenization I do agree. I
18:02
Speaker 1: think with tokenization Fink is right there. Of course. Right
18:05
Speaker 1: now you've got Tom Lee also doubling down on this
18:08
Speaker 1: wall Street is built and launched products on Ethereum at
18:10
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, we know and it's evident that Wall
18:13
Speaker 1: Street needs a reliable and battle tested common blockchain. We
18:17
Speaker 1: know that is Ethereum. Of course, Tom Lee talking about
18:21
Speaker 1: his book over at BM and R, one of the
18:23
Speaker 1: largest digital asset treasuries out there for Ethereum. Let's go
18:27
Speaker 1: to the eighth chart. Tell me, are we going to
18:30
Speaker 1: see eight at fifteen hundred.
18:34
Speaker 6: I don't think fifteen hundred, Paul, I've known fifteen hundred
18:37
Speaker 6: would be. If it goes down to fifteen hundred, I
18:39
Speaker 6: would be very concerned. I think that the big place.
18:42
Speaker 6: The first thing I'm want to show you on to
18:43
Speaker 6: eth is see this two This is the two week
18:46
Speaker 6: two hundred moving average. Right here. We hit it at
18:49
Speaker 6: fifteen hundred, it keeps going higher. I think that potentially
18:53
Speaker 6: could be the place that you made bottom in. Let's say,
18:56
Speaker 6: may you know maybe June somewhere between two thousand, I
19:00
Speaker 6: was in down to eighteen hundred. I don't think it's
19:01
Speaker 6: going to go down to fifteen hundred. I would have
19:03
Speaker 6: major concerns if it does. In the more short term here,
19:08
Speaker 6: I do think that you know, you look at this,
19:10
Speaker 6: this this looks as bearish as possible. Basically on the
19:12
Speaker 6: three day, the four day, those type of situations right here,
19:16
Speaker 6: and you're in a bear flag right here. This is
19:19
Speaker 6: a bear flag, you know, sending wedge. These generally do
19:22
Speaker 6: break downward. Twenty four hundred is what you may see
19:25
Speaker 6: early to mid February after the f home C meeting.
19:29
Speaker 6: It wouldn't surprise me though, if you have one last
19:31
Speaker 6: jump up or something before the fom C meeting next week.
19:34
Speaker 6: I would keep my eye on this potentially. I kind
19:37
Speaker 6: of don't think it'll happen, but there is tough possibility.
19:39
Speaker 6: I think once you break down from this, that's twenty
19:41
Speaker 6: four hundred, and then over the next few months you
19:44
Speaker 6: get down to like twenty or eighteen hundred for just
19:47
Speaker 6: a very rare, great buying opportunity for ethereum down at
19:51
Speaker 6: anywhere around these levels. So that's what I'm really looking
19:55
Speaker 6: at for ethereum right now. I think you can make
19:58
Speaker 6: a lie if you can get in around two thousand,
20:01
Speaker 6: eighteen hundred old three four years, you know, you can
20:04
Speaker 6: make a lot ten to fifteen k. It's definitely in
20:06
Speaker 6: the cards, all.
20:07
Speaker 1: Right, So you like that range going in there as
20:11
Speaker 1: far as this year, if you were investing in bitcoin
20:15
Speaker 1: or eth, which one out performs end of view.
20:19
Speaker 6: And of vier. I most like the ethereum solely based
20:22
Speaker 6: on monetary policy. I do think with this tariff scare
20:25
Speaker 6: for the next couple months, there's a little bit of
20:27
Speaker 6: concern on the Eth versus Bitcoin chart, and I could
20:30
Speaker 6: show you it just real quick right here. Ether versus
20:33
Speaker 6: Bitcoin got a trigger wave to the downside in the
20:36
Speaker 6: three week Maybe give it a few months here and
20:39
Speaker 6: just see if we could get like more money flows,
20:42
Speaker 6: more money flow coming up on this, it would look
20:44
Speaker 6: much better. But I do think this is the last
20:46
Speaker 6: time they ended QT. Something like this into the end
20:50
Speaker 6: of the decade is absolutely possible. So I'm very bullish
20:54
Speaker 6: on eth versus Bitcoin for the next few years.
20:57
Speaker 1: I like it all right, let's get into XRP. It
21:00
Speaker 1: is not often that I disagree with Brad Garlinghouse, And
21:04
Speaker 1: of course Brad goes on the record at Davos that
21:07
Speaker 1: clarity is better than chaos, and he's been very open
21:11
Speaker 1: about it. And I understand the position that Ripple is in.
21:15
Speaker 1: This would be good for Ripple in general, just any clarity.
21:19
Speaker 1: Obviously this structures and gets Wall straight into play. If
21:23
Speaker 1: this bill goes through the way it is or some
21:26
Speaker 1: derivative of it. But at the same time, I'm concerned
21:29
Speaker 1: with XRP because I look at this and I say, well,
21:33
Speaker 1: what if this doesn't go through, does it you know,
21:37
Speaker 1: does it bode badly for XRP because it's so driven
21:40
Speaker 1: off of sentiment. You know, when you think about how
21:42
Speaker 1: XRP moves, it moves based on sentiment. Right now, when
21:47
Speaker 1: you look at the XRP chart and where we are
21:49
Speaker 1: right now, which we're trading under two bucks again, where
21:52
Speaker 1: would you put XRP right now this year, let's say,
21:55
Speaker 1: going into the latter half of twenty twenty.
21:59
Speaker 6: Six range for you. Yeah, I got a good range
22:01
Speaker 6: for you. I was looking at that star, and you know,
22:04
Speaker 6: I think that your average all coin and bitcoin itself
22:08
Speaker 6: probably can do from the high we saw, you know,
22:10
Speaker 6: this month January, I could do a forty to fifty
22:13
Speaker 6: percent correction. Potentially you have your two hundred weekly moving average.
22:17
Speaker 6: This would be my like low point, my like which
22:20
Speaker 6: would be maybe one fifteen, one twenty. By the time
22:23
Speaker 6: you hit that point, this would be like the low point.
22:25
Speaker 6: I don't think you would lose that point this year
22:27
Speaker 6: or ever for that matter. Hopefully, assuming this succeeds, which
22:31
Speaker 6: I think it will and you know the higher point,
22:34
Speaker 6: you know, one thirty. Kind of these levels I think
22:36
Speaker 6: you would break down to this weekly looks kind of
22:38
Speaker 6: as bad as possible right here. You know, the curvagu're
22:40
Speaker 6: coming down, so it does look like you have a
22:43
Speaker 6: bearish couple of months. And then you know, my guess
22:46
Speaker 6: is you're going to bottom kind of early this cycle,
22:48
Speaker 6: you know, maybe May, and then hit it like one thirty.
22:51
Speaker 6: You know those kind of levels, maybe one thirty. I
22:54
Speaker 6: think you're probably gonna lose one sixty because you're already,
22:57
Speaker 6: you know, so close to it and things look parish.
22:59
Speaker 6: But that's why to look at for XRP, for every coin,
23:02
Speaker 6: really every major coin, you know, high market cap coin,
23:05
Speaker 6: I think, look at these emas. I just want you
23:07
Speaker 6: to look at these emas on your three day right here.
23:10
Speaker 6: See how they turned great up right right there. The
23:13
Speaker 6: next time that happens, I think, then it'll probably do
23:16
Speaker 6: something of this nature the next thing. The time that happens,
23:19
Speaker 6: maybe in the second half of this year, that's going
23:22
Speaker 6: to be a major, major swing trade by opportunity. And
23:25
Speaker 6: that goes for bitcoin ethereum, every major token I think
23:29
Speaker 6: could follow that pattern. That's really what I'm waiting to
23:32
Speaker 6: really put some major allocations and make some big bets here.
23:36
Speaker 1: All right, so swing trading after the second half of
23:39
Speaker 1: the year, after a Q two.
23:40
Speaker 6: Yeah, based on that emas and I'll show you, I'll
23:43
Speaker 6: show I'll tell you to say, shoot you a text
23:45
Speaker 6: when I see them.
23:46
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, Well we're going to be looking for
23:48
Speaker 1: those we've got. Of course. You know one thing we
23:51
Speaker 1: had ran on not too long ago from Crypto Banner.
23:54
Speaker 1: He basically is not on the side of the Tom
23:57
Speaker 1: Lee trade, and that is in reference to the eth Treasury.
24:01
Speaker 1: So he sold out as BM and R. I'm still
24:04
Speaker 1: not sold completely on what Tom Lee is trying to
24:07
Speaker 1: do with mister Beast. Have you heard about this where
24:09
Speaker 1: he's investing in mister Beat's company. Yeah, yeah, I think
24:13
Speaker 1: what do you think?
24:14
Speaker 6: Yeah?
24:15
Speaker 1: You when you look at it at it?
24:19
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's the first thing I'll say is it's kind
24:21
Speaker 6: of like I'll compare to micro strategy a little bit.
24:23
Speaker 6: Like I've said, you know quite a few times, like
24:26
Speaker 6: the sequel is usually worse than the original. It doesn't
24:28
Speaker 6: mean you can't make money on the people. I would
24:31
Speaker 6: say the first thing, be careful with it, like I
24:33
Speaker 6: would only put ten percent of my eth allegation, maybe
24:35
Speaker 6: twenty percent of my eth allocation into that. You know,
24:38
Speaker 6: it's maybe more of a leveraged you know situation. Yeah, man,
24:42
Speaker 6: are you know I've looked at that chart. We can
24:44
Speaker 6: kind of chart it. It's a weird chart, man, I
24:46
Speaker 6: mean it crazy jump up in you know, June of
24:50
Speaker 6: last year. It doesn't look good at the moment, but
24:53
Speaker 6: I think long term, you know, you should be able
24:55
Speaker 6: to bottom I don't know, eighteen to twelve dollars or
24:59
Speaker 6: something of that nature and then hopefully come up. But
25:01
Speaker 6: this isn't a sharp like I'd like to buy a
25:04
Speaker 6: long term at the moment. Putting a small into this sure,
25:09
Speaker 6: but I would not be converting all my eth into that.
25:11
Speaker 6: I think that's very, very risky at the moment.
25:16
Speaker 1: Well, I think it's the question is whether or not
25:18
Speaker 1: the mister Beasts play is going to be something that
25:22
Speaker 1: measures out here anytime soon. And you got to you
25:25
Speaker 1: don't know, I mean it's very possible that you know,
25:28
Speaker 1: Beast Industries could could bring a financial product forward, could
25:32
Speaker 1: end up you know, writing on ethereum that of course,
25:34
Speaker 1: that could compel you know, maybe billions of people when
25:39
Speaker 1: you look at the size of mister beasts reach to
25:42
Speaker 1: possibly layer into that, and of course B, M and
25:45
Speaker 1: R would be part of that. Obviously Eth would be
25:47
Speaker 1: also part of that. So good for timing. I just
25:51
Speaker 1: don't know. That's a lot of working parts it has
25:53
Speaker 1: to get through. I'm still on the fence on that one,
25:56
Speaker 1: but I'm leaning more toward it, even though there has
25:59
Speaker 1: been a lot of people kind of saying, hey, what
26:01
Speaker 1: are you doing here? Man? Tom Lee losing the plot.
26:04
Speaker 1: He's got his new app going on out there. Maybe
26:07
Speaker 1: Tom sees something much bigger here, and I wouldn't put
26:11
Speaker 1: it outside of his vision, even though he's a finance guy.
26:14
Speaker 1: I think his his concept of what blockchain. He's learned
26:17
Speaker 1: a lot in a very short period of time. Maybe
26:19
Speaker 1: he sees something here that everybody is missing. And there's
26:23
Speaker 1: a handful of people that have been like that before.
26:25
Speaker 1: I remember eras where they looked at Warren Buffett that
26:29
Speaker 1: way when he was going in on many of these stocks.
26:32
Speaker 1: So think about that in general.
26:35
Speaker 6: Really, yeah, I mean I wouldn't buy that ipo. I'm
26:39
Speaker 6: not a big IPO guy. You know, generally, you know,
26:42
Speaker 6: if you you short most IPOs generally you'd make money
26:45
Speaker 6: as long as you can get out at the right time.
26:47
Speaker 6: So next four to six months, I think Tom Lee
26:49
Speaker 6: kind of alluded to that too. You know, it could
26:51
Speaker 6: be a bear market for another few months here.
26:53
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, we're going to be watching that along with
26:56
Speaker 1: much more so, Evan, I'm gonna get you back on
26:58
Speaker 1: because we want to get into maybe some additional trades
27:02
Speaker 1: that are in some of the other things than risk markets.
27:06
Speaker 1: So we'll bring you back on the show to chat
27:08
Speaker 1: that out. But thanks for coming in today. We appreciate it.
27:10
Speaker 6: Thanks so much, always an honor paulk.
27:19
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27:21
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27:25
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