Latest / Best of Business / Andrew Curtayne: Milford Asset Management expert on the market reactions to the Israel-Iran conflict

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Andrew Curtayne: Milford Asset Management expert on the market reactions to the Israel-Iran conflict · Best of Business

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  Speaker 2: Times for Milford Asset Management. Andrew Kurtain, Hello, Andrew.
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  Speaker 1: I love it well, thank you.
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  Speaker 2: So how the global markets reacting to this conflict between
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  Speaker 2: Israel and Iran.
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  Speaker 3: The markets have really shrugged it off. We only seen
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  Speaker 3: equity markets come off very marginally. The US dot markets
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  Speaker 3: down around about one percent since the conflict began last Friday.
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  Speaker 3: So Marcus really telling you that I think this conflict
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  Speaker 3: at the moment's pretty contained a Israel in Iran and
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  Speaker 3: they're not getting too spooked about it. We have seen
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  Speaker 3: a little bit of movement to safety. Some investors have
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  Speaker 3: been buying gold golds up to a three percent since
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  Speaker 3: the conflict started. But really where the most action has
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  Speaker 3: been is in price is up about sixteen percent since
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  Speaker 3: the conflict started, and go back and started June it's
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  Speaker 3: up about twenty three percent. Now, this sort of makes
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  Speaker 3: sense because Iran producers around about three percent of the
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  Speaker 3: world's wild uptop, which found like a lot, but in
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  Speaker 3: a commodity like oil, we even sort of a one
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  Speaker 3: percent destruction to oil production can have quite a significant
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  Speaker 3: impact on price.
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  Speaker 2: Do you think it'll go higher?
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  Speaker 3: Yet, it's hard to tell. What would send the price
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  Speaker 3: higher would be direct attacks into major oil infrastructure. We
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  Speaker 3: haven't seen that. There's been a few a few sort
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  Speaker 3: of missiles that have hit some smaller pieces of infrastructure,
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  Speaker 3: but we haven't seen anything that is really going to
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  Speaker 3: disrupt kind of million barrel type levels of production. What
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  Speaker 3: could happen if things escalators iranicize to say, attack some
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  Speaker 3: oil assets in Saudi Arabia, which produces round about nine
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  Speaker 3: attempercent of the world's oil, or in the major escalation,
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  Speaker 3: then they can shut up or start attacking cruise ships
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  Speaker 3: in Australa for most, which is to the south side
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  Speaker 3: of Iran, which at a round about twenty percent of
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  Speaker 3: the world's oil passes through this. But I sort of
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  Speaker 3: put that as an unlikely scenario. I think if I
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  Speaker 3: run to this would really attagonize the need to remember
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  Speaker 3: that Trump wants lower oil prices is not higher. So
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  Speaker 3: if you want a certain way to bring you with
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  Speaker 3: them to the war, then you could go to go
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  Speaker 3: to other technical early Arabian oil accent.
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  Speaker 2: Very good point. Now, given everything that's going on, why
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  Speaker 2: do you think it is that most global stock markets
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  Speaker 2: have recovered from the low that we saw in April.
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  Speaker 3: Well, with a conflict in Middle East, it's really only
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  Speaker 3: impacting right now the countries that are involved. It's not
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  Speaker 3: really having an impact on the economic outlook for the US,
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  Speaker 3: for Europe, when New Zealand, Australia and so sheer markets
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  Speaker 3: really care about what and economies where their companies primarily operate,
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  Speaker 3: and it's the economic growth in these companies and these
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  Speaker 3: economies are signed, and the profit growth in the companies
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  Speaker 3: in these countries will also be fined. And so that's
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  Speaker 3: what I'm just is a t reason this is sort
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  Speaker 3: of a relatively contained conflict for now. And if you
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  Speaker 3: sort of stepped back a couple of months since the
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  Speaker 3: equity markets bot on back in April. Since then, we've
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  Speaker 3: had quite positive new bond tariffs with the delays on
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  Speaker 3: all the pause to them to go. Deals around the
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  Speaker 3: world between Trump and the major nations also have a
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  Speaker 3: slightly more optimistic look on the global macro outlook. And
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  Speaker 3: also the sort of artificial intelligence trade which has been
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  Speaker 3: a key theme over over the last few years, has
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  Speaker 3: really come back with the theory and that is sending
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  Speaker 3: a lot of stock slide, Microsoft, Navidier, Oracle back to
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  Speaker 3: all time highs.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Andrew, Thanks very much. Andrew Kutaine, Milford Asset Management.
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