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Doerkson V ICBC No Fault | Political Capital Daily · Political Capital with Rob Shaw

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  Speaker 1: Political Capital Daily. Wednesday, welcome. Good morning to you. In
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  Speaker 1: the middle of the week, Wednesday, that means we're joined
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  Speaker 1: by Jillian Oliver from Political Capital Prime, OG, Political Capital
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  Speaker 1: Prime member. Jillian, thanks for getting up and doing the
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  Speaker 1: show with us this morning.
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  Speaker 2: Good morning. Good to be here.
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  Speaker 1: So many things going on. If you're planning your day,
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  Speaker 1: we have the Conservatives and Lauren Dirksen, their leader, up
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  Speaker 1: at 11 o'clock for a policy announcement in Battleground Surrey
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  Speaker 1: with the Greens launching what they call a major platform plank,
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  Speaker 1: the Economic Vision for BC's Future with The leader, Emily Lowen,
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  Speaker 1: and the Greater Vancouver Area candidates outside of Canada Place
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  Speaker 1: at 10.30. So that looks like a significant announcement from
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  Speaker 1: the Greens. They've been kind of building up to that
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  Speaker 1: with some wealth tax and other stuff. Jillian, we've talked
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  Speaker 1: about the interest in campaign, and this appears to be
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  Speaker 1: maybe another major platform plank, as they call it. They
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  Speaker 1: seem like they've got a little momentum on their side,
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  Speaker 1: the Greens. Maybe I'm just reading into it, but what
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  Speaker 1: do you think?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think it's really interesting. I almost
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  Speaker 2: wondered if the NDP got wind of what was coming
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  Speaker 2: from them because we sort of had those dueling wealth
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  Speaker 2: tax announcements. And I thought the contrast is super interesting.
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  Speaker 2: The Greens plan really going after wealth rather than income
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  Speaker 2: and avoiding a lot of the criticism that the NDP
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  Speaker 2: have got that this affects people like doctors instead goes
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  Speaker 2: after the super rich. It's interesting. This was actually one
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  Speaker 2: of the first things that Loewen introduced as a policy
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  Speaker 2: when she became leader and she actually got some of
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  Speaker 2: that backlash about like what about doctors and these kinds
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  Speaker 2: of people. So I think she actually sort of learned
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  Speaker 2: from that and we're seeing the results of that in
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  Speaker 2: this platform. It's going to be really interesting to see
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  Speaker 2: what the economic plan is. She talked at UBCM about
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  Speaker 2: the sort of lack of ambition from David Eby and, um,
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  Speaker 2: the sort of like squandered opportunity to really embrace, um,
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  Speaker 2: a different economic future for BC. And I think that
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  Speaker 2: that's a really interesting message when we now have the
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  Speaker 2: NDP and the conservatives campaigning on such a similar economic vision,
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  Speaker 2: which is really just doubling down on LNG and fossil fuel, uh, expansion,
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  Speaker 2: which is, of course, is coming on the heels of
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  Speaker 2: that huge adjustment where LNG isn't as profitable as we
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  Speaker 2: thought it was. So it's going to be really interesting
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  Speaker 2: to see what they come out with and what the
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  Speaker 2: response to it is.
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  Speaker 1: Whether the NDP keep kind of cribbing from it as
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  Speaker 1: they launch up their version of kind of a class
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  Speaker 1: war type of pivot from Trump is the villain to
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  Speaker 1: the wealthy elites are the villain, which seems to be
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  Speaker 1: David Eby's trajectory. I want to get your thoughts, Jillian,
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  Speaker 1: on the new poll for Main Street. Not a polling
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  Speaker 1: company I particularly put as high as, say, Angus Reid.
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  Speaker 1: Maybe just because I've been doing politics for a while
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  Speaker 1: and I remember quite a few missed polls back in
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  Speaker 1: the day that we had the big 2013 polling disaster.
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  Speaker 1: But Main Street coming out with what is called Snap
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  Speaker 1: Election Misfire Poll. The BC Conservatives leading the NDP by
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  Speaker 1: just under 8 points, 44.7 to 37.2. Conservative lead there,
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  Speaker 1: the Greens at 11.21, BC at 5.7, and Centre BC
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  Speaker 1: at 1.1. The pollster here noting an overwhelming disapproval of
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  Speaker 1: the snap election. This polling done September 30th to October 1st.
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  Speaker 1: 827 adults done with the robo-IVR.
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  Speaker 2: So.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, there's another eight-point lead for the Conservatives. Looks
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  Speaker 1: like similar-ish numbers. It is interesting. If you put them
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  Speaker 1: all into the aggregate tracker, which I visit called PoliWave, P-O-L-I-Wave.com,
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  Speaker 1: it aggregates all of the stuff right there. It has
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  Speaker 1: the Conservatives at 42-ish and the NDP at 39-ish and
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  Speaker 1: the Greens at 10 to 11-ish and 1BC at 4-ish.
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  Speaker 3: Ish.
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  Speaker 1: So that's kind of where we're looking right now. What
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  Speaker 1: do you think of those numbers?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, when you kind of take into account the
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  Speaker 2: margin of errors, all the polls look kind of similar.
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  Speaker 2: I don't know. It's been a while. I think since
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  Speaker 2: we saw one with an NDP lead, they're, they're all
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  Speaker 2: kind of like either tied or, um, this sort of
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  Speaker 2: like slight conservative lead, if you take into account the
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  Speaker 2: margin of error. Um, interesting that center BC has like
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  Speaker 2: pretty much no traction, um, in an election where we
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  Speaker 2: had so many people saying that they weren't happy with
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  Speaker 2: the choices. Um, voters still seem to be sort of
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  Speaker 2: coalescing around the sort of known quantities. Um, and yeah,
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  Speaker 2: I mean, honestly, it doesn't surprise me that, that the,
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  Speaker 2: the sort of, um, frustration and anger and distrust towards
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  Speaker 2: the NDP has persisted after the first week of the
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  Speaker 2: snap election call. Like I've been saying all along, I
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  Speaker 2: think the conditions for this election are really different than 2020.
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  Speaker 2: And I think, you know, in some ways it's like
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  Speaker 2: such a tell because the NDP are basically saying, we
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  Speaker 2: didn't think we could make things better in two years
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  Speaker 2: than they are right now. So I think it's like,
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  Speaker 2: and I think that that's like pretty easy for voters
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  Speaker 2: to read. Um, so yeah, I'm not really surprised that it,
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  Speaker 2: that it's kind of sticking around. Um, we saw the
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  Speaker 2: NDP start to, uh, flood out some, some more negative
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  Speaker 2: attacks on some of the more, um, sketchy conservative candidates. Um,
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  Speaker 2: it'll be interesting to see if they have more oppo
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  Speaker 2: that they can try to drive those numbers down a
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  Speaker 2: little bit. But right now it, it really seems like
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  Speaker 2: it could be a change election. It is.
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  Speaker 1: Last election felt like a change election too. And I
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  Speaker 1: guess the New Democrats forgot that because here they are
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  Speaker 1: facing the same headwinds of kind of dissatisfaction, skepticism with
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  Speaker 1: some of their plans. There's some clips I want to
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  Speaker 1: play that are very interesting about David Eby and kind
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  Speaker 1: of what he had to say yesterday, including a bit
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  Speaker 1: of sparring with journalists that are interesting. We'll just get
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  Speaker 1: to those right after this quick break. Well, Political Capital Daily,
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  Speaker 1: with rising costs of living across the province. Thanks to
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  Speaker 1: Airbnb for its support. Back to the show. Alrighty, so
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  Speaker 1: David Eby up in a press conference yesterday, coming up
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  Speaker 1: with this clip, talking a bit about the frustration he
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  Speaker 1: feels with Conservative leader Lorne Dirksen continuing to say he's
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  Speaker 1: not going to raise taxes, but then making announcements about
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  Speaker 1: holding health care funding at current levels and spending other money.
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  Speaker 1: Let's start with David Eby on that.
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  Speaker 4: I've heard the Conservative, current Conservative leader talk about health care.
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  Speaker 4: And I can't explain to you what magic he is
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  Speaker 4: aware of that I am not aware of that allows
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  Speaker 4: him to slash the deficit, not ask wealthiest British Columbians
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  Speaker 4: to pay a little bit more, and maintain healthcare spending.
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  Speaker 4: Unless he has a magic wand, this is just not
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  Speaker 4: something that is real. The only possible outcome of his
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  Speaker 4: plan is to slash health care spending at a time
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  Speaker 4: when we know British Columbians need care across the province.
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  Speaker 3: He's a wizard.
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  Speaker 1: He's a wizard, Jillian. You know, it wasn't that long
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  Speaker 1: ago that the politician standing at the front of the
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  Speaker 1: room saying we can hold the line on health care
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  Speaker 1: spending and not have to raise taxes and bring down
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  Speaker 1: the deficit was the NDP government in its budget that
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  Speaker 1: just passed in May in the legislature. But now that's
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  Speaker 1: apparently magic.
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  Speaker 2: I don't know.
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  Speaker 1: What do you think of that attack on the conservatives?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it just sounds like he just sounds
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  Speaker 2: really unconvincing, doesn't he? Like it just, cause I just
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  Speaker 2: think it's like, okay, so then why did you roll
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  Speaker 2: the dice and risk them getting in? You know? And
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  Speaker 2: I think that it's like, it's been so hard for
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  Speaker 2: EB to get away from, from that and from being
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  Speaker 2: able to, from people's minds kind of jumping to that
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  Speaker 2: no matter almost what he's talking about. I think that
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  Speaker 2: maybe like, things are still fresh and changing there was
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  Speaker 2: another thing that came out yesterday that i think the
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  Speaker 2: conservatives were not expecting um i think you probably want
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  Speaker 2: to talk about it right about the icbc letter yeah
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  Speaker 2: um and i think that there we could start to
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  Speaker 2: see some other things this like the polling that we're
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  Speaker 2: talking about i think still doesn't reflect this sort of
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  Speaker 2: like populist economic pivot that the ndp have made this
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  Speaker 2: week um and there's still still lots of room for
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  Speaker 2: change but i mean yeah i don't i think that
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  Speaker 2: one really falls flat for me yeah it.
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  Speaker 1: Hasn't quite cut up with their cap the gas and
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  Speaker 1: create a bread commissioner and all this sort of stuff
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  Speaker 1: that they're working on. I'm still a big fan of
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  Speaker 1: the bread commissioner. Let's get Mo Sahota in there. Sourdough
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  Speaker 1: Mo on top of the bread. The bread can rise
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  Speaker 1: one tuppence this week, but not a tuppence more.
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  Speaker 2: We're going to send everyone a sourdough starter.
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  Speaker 1: They are, yeah.
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  Speaker 2: ICBC checks.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, and some sourdough starter. It's going to be great.
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  Speaker 1: It's an $ 18 million a year bread commissioner's office, but man,
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  Speaker 1: is it going to save us money. Okay, the press
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  Speaker 1: conferences are getting so interesting because here's what David Eby
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  Speaker 1: had to say, which sounds like the kind of thing
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  Speaker 1: that he's just kind of rolling into his speech, but
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  Speaker 1: let's just have a listen to this.
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  Speaker 4: Right now in the province, people can wait 10 weeks
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  Speaker 4: for a surgery, but they can wait 50 weeks or
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  Speaker 4: more for some surgeries, which is totally unacceptable.
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  Speaker 3: That line.
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  Speaker 1: who turned into a conservative attack ad online very quickly,
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  Speaker 1: because he's talking about a totally unacceptable current wait time
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  Speaker 1: in the province. And the conservative attack ad just took
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  Speaker 1: the clip and said, well, who's been in power for
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  Speaker 1: nine years? Who is responsible for the unacceptable wait times
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  Speaker 1: you're trying to change, Chilean? And I was struck by
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  Speaker 1: how quickly the NDP can fall into that, in the
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  Speaker 1: middle of a throwaway line in a press conference, trying
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  Speaker 1: to frame what they're improving against becomes a juxtaposition for
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  Speaker 1: what they haven't done just randomly in the middle of
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  Speaker 1: a press conference.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, and I think it's hard for any
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  Speaker 2: incumbent government. I think that the NDP seems to have
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  Speaker 2: been caught particularly flat-footed because sort of like the campaign
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  Speaker 2: script and the tricks that they've used in the past
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  Speaker 2: just sort of are not working anymore now that they're
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  Speaker 2: in such a different situation having been in government for
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  Speaker 2: so long like again 2024 even though they had been
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  Speaker 2: in power I guess for seven years at that point
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  Speaker 2: it was still EB's first election and they had gotten
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  Speaker 2: kind of like a little bit of a fresh face
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  Speaker 2: a little bit of a change of tone from the
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  Speaker 2: Horgan years where things have started to stagnate a little
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  Speaker 2: bit and so it's really a new situation for them
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  Speaker 2: running as this long-serving incumbent government and they seem to
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  Speaker 2: have kind of just not taken it into account.
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  Speaker 1: And maybe it comes by in some of the tone
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  Speaker 1: of the questions. I want to play you, this is
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  Speaker 1: CTV's Rob Buffum, who asked two questions of David Eby. And,
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  Speaker 1: you know, one of them you'll hear in a longer form.
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  Speaker 1: And then the second one was kind of basically, if
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  Speaker 1: you're rolling the dice on this, and you don't end
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  Speaker 1: up with more of a majority than you started in
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  Speaker 1: the election, are you going to stay is later and
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  Speaker 1: here's the sort of two exchanges that occurred here.
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  Speaker 3: So all these promises like you know putting 20 in
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  Speaker 3: people's pockets of the gas tank or bringing mri machines
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  Speaker 3: or revitalizing seniors care homes any of those things could
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  Speaker 3: have been brought in by by your government um so
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  Speaker 3: i guess i just want to get your reaction to
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  Speaker 3: people who are cynical about you're saying that this was
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  Speaker 3: a critical election to call. You've said there's no good
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  Speaker 3: time to ask for feedback. Well, the municipality said now
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  Speaker 3: is not a good time for an election.
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  Speaker 4: Hey, look, Rob, you know, you were there. I know
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  Speaker 4: you were there. I know you saw 13 times the
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  Speaker 4: conservatives tried to bring down our government. I know you
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  Speaker 4: saw my colleagues voting from hospital beds. So to suggest, uh,
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  Speaker 4: that we were not compromised and all the things that
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  Speaker 4: I know we had to do to respond to this
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  Speaker 4: moment is simply not true. And, uh, And I understand,
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  Speaker 4: I accept that not all British Columbians are where I
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  Speaker 4: am in terms of the threat that Trump presents to
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  Speaker 4: our country and our province and the urgency of this moment.
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  Speaker 4: But I know that all British Columbians are on the
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  Speaker 4: same page in understanding the challenges of the cost of living,
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  Speaker 4: the need for a strong public health care system, and
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  Speaker 4: how Trump can make those things significantly worse than how
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  Speaker 4: he has. It does matter to British Columbians.
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  Speaker 3: Is there a threshold in your mind where you're like, yep,
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  Speaker 3: I've given folks a chance to weigh in on this
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  Speaker 3: and they weren't where I was at. This was $ 90
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  Speaker 3: million or whatever it costs and conflicting with the municipal
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  Speaker 3: election that we didn't have to go through.
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  Speaker 4: Rob, I understand if you don't think that I should
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  Speaker 4: have gone to British Columbians to ask them a serious
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  Speaker 4: question about the direction of the future of our province.
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  Speaker 4: I think that that was the right thing to do.
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  Speaker 1: Doesn't do that very often david eb uh he's he's
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  Speaker 1: usually better at responding to questions he doesn't like but
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  Speaker 1: he seemed to take both of those very personally and
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  Speaker 1: clashed with with reporters which he doesn't do jillian when
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: you hear a leader doing that what do you.
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  Speaker 2: Think um i mean yeah it doesn't it it's it
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  Speaker 2: also just is like there's a lot of muddled messages
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: in that answer um sounds like he he sort of
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  Speaker 2: almost lacks clarity about how he wants to respond to
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: a question that he's been getting for weeks now um
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: and I think yes I have to imagine that things
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  Speaker 2: must be a bit muddled internally I mean we might
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: not ever know the exact circumstances that led up to
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  Speaker 2: the call of this election um EB talked about MLA's
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  Speaker 2: voting from hospital beds it is true that they had
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  Speaker 2: a slim uh majority but what we also know is
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  Speaker 2: true about that is that it makes it much harder
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  Speaker 2: to manage a caucus because everybody's opinion suddenly matters a
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: great deal and we saw that play out with DRIPA
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: with Joan Phillips not wanting to vote for amendments to
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  Speaker 2: it and you know it makes me wonder what other
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: kinds of disagreements and sort of headaches EB had behind
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: the scenes that might have led him to just say
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: you know let's go to the polls and see if
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: it can get better than this because it can't get
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: worse um I don't know, I'm just speculating, but he
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: sounds frustrated and that maybe he was even a little
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  Speaker 2: bit conflicted going into this, but that he almost felt
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  Speaker 2: like he didn't have a choice.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, the premise of Rob Buffum's question, his first one,
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  Speaker 1: and it's a good one, is that, and we've been
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: saying this to EB since the beginning, you had a
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  Speaker 1: three-seat majority due to sort of where he was at.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: And that's more than he had coming out of the
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  Speaker 1: 2024 election, which he declared a mandate to govern. Uh,
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  Speaker 1: and so to throw it all up now and be like,
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  Speaker 1: you were there, you saw the opposition trying to bring
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  Speaker 1: us down. What's what oppositions do? You know, you saw
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: them debating different things. Like that's what the legislature's for. Um,
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  Speaker 1: I don't know. I was surprised by that question. It's
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  Speaker 1: sort of the answer to that question because it, he
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: sounds frustrated. Like you say about the very basic question
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: that has been asked now the whole time, which is
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: what are you doing this for? Couldn't you have just
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: done these things in government? And he's saying no, which
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: he could have. So that's interesting to me. I want
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: to play just this last topic here, and you mentioned
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  Speaker 1: it already, which is basically the BC Conservatives getting caught
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  Speaker 1: with a letter that was released, signed by Leader Lorne
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  Speaker 1: Dirksen to several groups, the Trial Lawyers Association, the Law Society,
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: the Canadian Bar Association, saying basically that a Conservative government
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: would replace at the NDP's no-fault insurance system with a
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  Speaker 1: new hybrid system. Here is Loren Dirksen responding to that.
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  Speaker 5: Certainly had conversations with people that have not been served
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  Speaker 5: well by this system. I think that I am definitely
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  Speaker 5: not alone. British Columbians are asking for us to contemplate
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  Speaker 5: this system. There's been no promises made by me at all.
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  Speaker 5: I'm committed to serving British Columbians on both sides of
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  Speaker 5: this equation.
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  Speaker 1: No promises made, Jillian. The text of the letter reads,
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  Speaker 1: we will replace the NDP's no-fault ICBC insurance scheme with
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  Speaker 1: a hybrid system. Signed by Lauren Dirksen, September 29th. That
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  Speaker 1: seems like a promise to me. I'm no wizard, but like,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: is that not a promise? So there was an interesting
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: disconnect between this letter, which seemed to catch the conservatives
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: off guard that it came out, and their ability to
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: explain it, and then suddenly that answer. And it was
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: a sort of fascinating little bit of back and forth
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: on that subject.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, totally. I think that this definitely has a potential
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: to become an issue because I think Dirksen so far
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: has really benefited from being like kind of an unknown quantity.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: And so in a time where people are really looking
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: for better options, I think there's sort of tended to
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: be so far like a bit of a like, shine
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: on him like because people are just looking for something
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: hopeful to grasp onto and he seems so much better
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: than uh carolyn finley and even to a lot of
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: people better than eb um and there's sort of this
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: like any anybody but eb kind of sentiment um with
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: the backlash to the snap election itself um forming but
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: now this is the first thing where we're kind of
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: seeing you know maybe we can't totally trust everything he
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: says that he's not such a straight shooter um like
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: that the the campaign team has been trying to paint
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: him um and this is there is a lot of
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: baggage around this issue for the former BC Liberals. Dirksen
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: was a BC Liberal. Eby was the one who coined
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: the ICBC dumpster fire, the huge financial mess, and brought
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: in no-fault insurance in a real effort to sort of
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: keep premiums down and to really reform things. And there
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: are really concrete examples of how a hybrid system can
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: be much more expensive in other provinces. So I do
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: think that this is a a troubling issue for the
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: conservatives at a time when the NDP has made this
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: pivot to sort of painting them as the party of
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: like the wealthy and the well-connected and the NDP or
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: the party of the working people and the everyday people.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: It's sort of a reversion to that Horgan era playbook,
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: which I think makes so much sense and is a
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: calculation on the NDP's part with more BC liberals and
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: that sort of like downtown Vancouver business elite sort of
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: taking back control of the BC Conservative Party.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: It makes me wonder if Dirksen even saw that letter
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: that he signed onto it. Like if things are moving
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: so fast on the campaign, maybe there's a bunch of,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: you know, Gillian, like campaigns get all these surveys from
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: different members and they have to write different things back
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: to them about different policy positions. And I guess they're
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: not all public yet, but they might be in the
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: platform later. And so they're coming out. I don't even
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: know if uh, Dirksen's aware, aware of all of them.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: So that part is interesting to me. He's like, I
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: didn't make any promises.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: I've worked on that before. And if you don't know,
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: it's better to just not respond. And his campaign team
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: should know that. I think either he knew and that's
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: his position or somebody high up in his campaign team, um,
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: you know, that, that matters, wanted to push that issue.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: Not that scrapping no fault is a new conservative position.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: They've been talking about it for quite a while. But
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: to promise it before announcing it to people who are
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: going to benefit with millions of dollars, private personal injury lawyers,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: is at a time when affordability is the top issue
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: and you can't assure people that their rates aren't going
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: to go up. That's a problem, I think, for them
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: that they'll have to get out from under. But so many,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: so many problems, so many issues, so much stuff. Jillian,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: I appreciate you.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: So little time.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: So little time. I appreciate you getting up early and
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: chatting with me about it. Thanks for being here.
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: No problem.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: Thank you, everyone, for listening. We'll be back tomorrow with
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: all the latest in BC politics here on Political Capital.