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Ep. 3679 This Just Changed EVERYTHING about the MIDTERMS!!! · Turley Talks

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Dr. Steve Turley joined me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is Turley Talks.
• 0:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: A major poll just dropped that's changing everything we thought we knew about the 2026 midterms.
• 0:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: For months, the legacy media has been feeding you a steady diet of Democrat victories, or polls showing massive leads, analysts predicting a blue wave, news anchors confidently declaring that Republicans are finished heading into 2026.
• 0:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: but something just happened, something huge, something that's about to send shockwaves through every Democrat campaign office in America and it's only about to get worse.
• 0:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Hey gang, it's me, Dr. Steve, you're a major professor, enjoying getting another wonderful day in President Trump's golden age that you made possible back on November the 5th.
• 1:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you want to front Rossine on how you continue to change the world in ways you never even imagine, make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button.
• 1:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Our MG Research, one of the most accurate pollsters from 2024,
• 1:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Just release their latest generic congressional ballot at some absolute bombshell.
• 1:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans are up 4 points over the Democrats.
• 1:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's Republicans 45 Democrats 41 when you add an independence who lean toward one party the other, the margin holds Republicans 48.
• 1:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: Democrats 44.
• 1:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, this isn't some random outlier.
• 1:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is the same polling outlet.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: RMJ that nailed 2024 while so many other posters were flat out wrong.
• 1:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, these are the very same posters who are desperately trying to convince us right now that the Democrats are shoe ends for the midterms.
• 2:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: But like 2024, it's simply not happening.
• 2:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Take a look at the latest
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  [SPEAKER_00]: He's five points higher than he was last month, almost at 50% he's at 48.
• 2:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Always remember, presidential approval is a key predictive indicator for the midterms presidents with approval rating down in the low 40s and below.
• 2:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: which is very common for a second year of an administration.
• 2:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: They tend to lose upwards of 30 plus seats in the midterms, what presidents with approval ratings around the 50% mark, while they still may lose, they lose by a lot less.
• 2:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: What's happening here with this latest from RMG, and the reason why it's such a bombshell in terms of the generic approval, or who you're going to be voting for, is that it's showing that the Republicans have a clear path
• 2:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: in 2026 and that's because it's indicative or it's representative of
• 3:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: two hours that I want you to remember, redistricting and registration, redistricting and registration.
• 3:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: So this RMG poll seems to be indicative of the congressional redistricting wars that are happening and the voter registration trends, both of which overwhelmingly favor the Republicans going into 2026.
• 3:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's really very, very impressive because way beyond just the polling.
• 3:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: So let's break it all down here.
• 3:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let's start with the redistricting war.
• 3:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, right now as we speak, we've got Texas with five new GOP seats.
• 3:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: We've got North Carolina with one, Missouri with one.
• 3:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: Indiana just passed a new congressional map through the state house that gives us two new seats.
• 3:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Ohio is looking at a pickup of two new seats.
• 3:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: Florida just formed a special redistricting committee to add three to five new Republican seats before the midterms.
• 4:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: So you add all those that we'll go with four with Florida will meet in the middle.
• 4:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: You add all those up and you get 13 new solid red seats.
• 4:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right now the Cook political report which looks at the competitiveness of each house seat.
• 4:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right now with Texas Missouri and North Carolina redistricting included as well as California's
• 4:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: from Prop 50 that's giving the GOP a solid 213 seats going into the midterms right now as we speak that means they only need to pick up five to hold the majority for 2018.
• 4:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: If we count the four seats from Florida the two from Indiana and the two from Ohio that's eight.
• 4:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: eight solid red seats that gives the GOP 221, which is one more than they have right now.
• 4:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: So in effect, if this map holds, Republicans will have won the House before a single vote is cast and without flipping a single contested seat.
• 5:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now the Democrats are increasingly getting desperate here.
• 5:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: Virginia Democrats announced plans to redraw their maps to pick up four more Democrats seats.
• 5:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Virginia would be down to just one Republican representative if you can believe that.
• 5:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, I think that's going to have its own political repercussions.
• 5:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: But it were that to happen if they if they do get four more seats that will knock us back to 2017, one seat shy of the majority, but you should know that's very hard for Virginia Democrats to do Virginia's redistricting requires passing the legislature twice than winning a statewide referendum all before the 2026 midterms start.
• 5:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: which is literally just a few months so campaign right campaigns need to start months in advance and need to raise money and all that and if you don't have the districts redrawn by early in the year it's too late and again even if democrats successfully counter jerrymandered in california virginia they'd offset republicans from the majority by just one seat.
• 6:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans would be down to 217 so all they'd have to do is win one of the 19 or so contested seats across the country and it's over.
• 6:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: They got the house back and that's where the second R comes in.
• 6:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is where the voter registration trends smack the Democrat right in the face especially given.
• 6:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: the voter registration trends are one of the most accurate predictive indicators for election outcomes.
• 6:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: And when you see these numbers, you understand precisely why the Democrats are so panicked.
• 6:45
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• 8:06
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• 8:07
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• 8:12
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• 8:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: spot on we're talking county by county in 2024 he's been watching the voter registration trends very carefully that's what he bases his forecasting on voter registration and he's noted that in the 30 states that track voter registration by party the democrats are hemorrhaging voters
• 9:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: at an alarming rate.
• 9:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: They've been hemorrhaging voters since 2020, but it just continues.
• 9:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: For example, in the Keystone State of Pennsylvania, my backyard here, there's been a lot of concern of light that it looked like the Democrats were regaining the lead and voter registrations of the last few months.
• 9:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: But Seth points out that a very deep investigation into the 67 counties suggests that the change was do more to registration maintenance over the November election some weeks back.
• 9:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Not because there was any significant voter registration surge among the Democrats.
• 9:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: So in fact, it's quite the opposite.
• 10:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Philadelphia and Allegheny counties got redder as did the key bell weather counties.
• 10:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: of Erie and North Hampton.
• 10:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: In other words, he who wins Erie and North Hampton wins Pennsylvania.
• 10:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: The two counties are almost perfect microcosm to the state as a whole and both counties are going solid red.
• 10:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: Get this.
• 10:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: This will blow your mind since November of 2024.
• 10:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Since Cacles, Kamala lost Pennsylvania a year ago, the Democrats have lost over 40% of their voter registration advantage.
• 10:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let that hit you over 40% and Pennsylvania always vote right, always vote to the right of their voter registration.
• 10:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if their voter registration advantage for Democrats to say 4%, they tend to vote three or four,
• 10:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: five points to the right of that.
• 10:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well now they're going solid red.
• 10:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: At this point, the Democrats will never win Pennsylvania again in a presidential contest without Pennsylvania, the Democrats are permanently locked out of executive power.
• 11:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: They just simply can't win the 270 that they need without the keystone state.
• 11:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Perhaps most impressively, the state of North Carolina, they're
• 11:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: looks like they are poised to flip this year.
• 11:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Republicans are just under 2,000 voter registration away from flipping the state.
• 11:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: It is absolutely unbelievable.
• 11:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: North Carolina like Florida before at North Carolina has never ever been majority Republican.
• 11:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: They vote majority Republican.
• 11:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: But that's because of a very large crossover among old school Democrats in North Carolina who simply never
• 11:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: formally switched their party registration, well, that's happening now by virtue of all these new voter registrations.
• 11:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're who are all registering Republican.
• 11:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: We can keep going and going in Arizona, both parties have been purging in active voter roles.
• 11:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: an active voters, I guess I should say from their role since November, but Democrats are losing significantly more and Republicans continue to widen their vote registration lead their in Arizona.
• 12:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're literally hemorrhaging voters in these voter role purges.
• 12:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: We saw something similar in Colorado.
• 12:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yes.
• 12:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: deep blue Colorado Republicans just saw a net gain of 6,000 voter registrations in Florida perhaps most dramatically Florida added 5,000 more Republicans to their registration while the same time they dropped.
• 12:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: 5,000 Democrats in their voter registration with a net gain of 10, 10 freaking thousand for the GOP.
• 12:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, that said there are lots of variables when it comes to the midterms and congressional races that you don't necessarily see in presidential races, so you can have different turnouts and different districts.
• 12:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: You have, you know, the candidate quality can differ significantly across the board, the amount of money that's poured into some races over other races.
• 13:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: There are whole host of factors that impact non-presidential races and can certainly override these trends.
• 13:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: And so there's absolutely no room whatsoever for complacency in the least.
• 13:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's said,
• 13:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: The redistricting and registration trajectories are giving the GOP a huge advantage for the midterms that they normally wouldn't have.
• 13:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: And if the RMG polling is accurate, that advantage is already showing itself before single vote gets cast.
• 13:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's our job to make sure that when those votes do get cast, 2026 will be a political earthquake from which the Democrat will never recover.
• 13:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thanks so much for listening to this episode of The Turly Talks Podcast.
• 13:53
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• 13:58
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• 14:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: Come back again tomorrow for another episode celebrating the rise of a new conservative age.