Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 103 - 8/22/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 103 - 8/22/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello and welcome to episode one O 3 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:24
  betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:34
  Happy Thirsty Thursday. Our work week is winding down.
• 0:38
  The weekend is upon us, guys. It's not that quite there yet.
• 0:41
  We got a big Friday coming up, which I'm excited about because
• 0:44
  we have possibly and most likely a biting system match so we can
• 0:49
  extend our UFC winning streak to 11 as we've gone ten straight.
• 0:53
  So I'm anxiously awaiting my early Friday e-mail from my
• 0:56
  buddy John Ewing to let us know where the bets and dollars are
• 0:59
  at. Of course, big weekend ahead
• 1:01
  here with the return of college football mentioned yesterday,
• 1:05
  but believe it or not, on Saturday we have the first few
• 1:08
  games of the college football season and we're also winding
• 1:11
  down the NFL pre season with the regular season opener not that
• 1:15
  far away. And oh, by the way, we continue
• 1:17
  to grind Major League Baseball. So it's becoming the busy part
• 1:20
  of the year. And that's that's totally fine
• 1:23
  with me because I love it when we have more sports to choose
• 1:25
  from, be selective and discipline and hopefully
• 1:28
  maximize our winnings here by looking at different angles for
• 1:31
  different sports. So for today I'm going to call
• 1:33
  it a quality, not quantity day. I do have a three pack of sweats
• 1:36
  for you, including two Major League Baseball bets.
• 1:39
  We got a couple sharp blind moves here to talk about see if
• 1:42
  we can hopefully get both of these.
• 1:44
  And then we have an NFL pre season information based bet to
• 1:48
  take advantage of where the betting market is very sharp in
• 1:51
  favor of one team in terms of a really sharp steam move and a
• 1:55
  good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
• 1:56
  As well as an information based bet where one coach said I'm
• 1:59
  going to play my guys and the other coach looks like he
• 2:02
  doesn't care at all. He's going to sit all of his
• 2:03
  guys. We have an angle here hopefully
• 2:05
  to capitalize upon and hopefully add a little more to our
• 2:08
  bankroll to get ready for the regular season.
• 2:11
  Now looking back toward last night, I buried the lead.
• 2:13
  Great bounce back guys 4 and 1 + 2.2 units had some great hits.
• 2:19
  Number one, no one, no, no hit was bigger then the Cardinals.
• 2:23
  And I've been telling you guys, if you haven't heard me say it
• 2:25
  before, man, the Cardinals are my bugaboo.
• 2:27
  I feel like when I bet on them, they never win.
• 2:29
  When I bet against them, they always beat me.
• 2:31
  But last night we got some revenge because the Cardinals
• 2:34
  look dead in the water multiple times.
• 2:36
  They had a lead, they blew it. They were down by two and tied
• 2:40
  it. Then they were down by two again
• 2:41
  and then tied it and then wouldn't you know it, Nolan
• 2:44
  Arenado hit a walk off Grand Slam.
• 2:47
  And the beauty of that game, but the Cardinals is that public was
• 2:49
  all over Milwaukee, yet we had a sharp reverse line move toward
• 2:53
  the Saint Louis Cardinals. So you look at RLM, the sports
• 2:55
  betting dictionary, boom, you'll see a picture of the Cardinals
• 2:58
  from last night. Phillies were able to rebound
• 3:00
  for US. Played them the night before and
• 3:02
  they lost. But last night they won three to
• 3:04
  two game, which was great to see.
• 3:05
  The Dodgers came through and the one that I really love seeing,
• 3:08
  even though it probably took ten years off my life, Tampa Bay,
• 3:11
  Oakland under 7 1/2. Those are two teams that have
• 3:15
  been cashing a ton of unders. We had a juiced up under seven
• 3:18
  and a half, a great bet split and remember only 29% bets, but
• 3:21
  63% money was on that under. And we also had two kind of
• 3:25
  light hitting teams and and good pitchers on the bump.
• 3:28
  So you're able to get that Tampa, Oakland under as well.
• 3:29
  Only loser was the Padres getting rolled 11:00 to 4:00.
• 3:33
  But if you tell me we're going to go 4 and 1 + 2.2 units, I
• 3:37
  will take that every single time.
• 3:39
  So a great big night last night and oh by the way, the beer
• 3:42
  league softball team also won last night 17 to 13.
• 3:45
  So I'm happy about that. However, you guys hear me say it
• 3:48
  all the time. Whether you go four and one or
• 3:50
  one and four up two units or down to units, it doesn't matter
• 3:53
  to the thought process. The strategy never changes.
• 3:56
  We have a good night like last night.
• 3:57
  Our challenge is to post another winning night tonight.
• 4:00
  So with a three pack, let's try to go two and one eke out a
• 4:02
  profit. If you go two nights ago and we
• 4:04
  went one and three, what was that?
• 4:06
  Tuesday night? I didn't have a great night.
• 4:09
  Our goal is to bounce back and produce a winning night.
• 4:11
  So to me, that's the beauty of sports betting.
• 4:13
  It can bring you the highest of highs, lowest of lows, great
• 4:16
  wins, crushing losses. But really what I love about
• 4:19
  betting is the challenge. The challenge every day to read
• 4:22
  the market, piece together the puzzle, try to make the smartest
• 4:25
  bet that you can. And again, that's our goal for
• 4:28
  today as it is every day. So without without further ado,
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  let's start talking about some sweats here for tonight.
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  I want to lead off with some NFL because there are two games here
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  tonight and there's one game in particular with a massive line
• 4:40
  move and that really coincides with a great bet split as well
• 4:43
  as a great situational angle. So I'm going to focus on a 8:00
• 4:48
  game tonight between the Indianapolis Colts and the
• 4:50
  Cincinnati Bengals. Now this one caught my eye for
• 4:53
  basically one major reason, a massive line move toward the
• 4:56
  Colts. Colts on the Road opened as some
• 4:59
  shops, a very short 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
• 5:02
  We've now seen the Colts get all the way up to -6 1/2.
• 5:06
  So right off the bat, you're scratching your head and say,
• 5:08
  whoa, whoa, whoa, what's going on here?
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  Why did this line move six full points in favor of Indianapolis?
• 5:13
  Well, let's look at the bet split first and then we'll kind
• 5:16
  of, you know, piece together why we're seeing such drastic
• 5:19
  movement. So in terms of bet split, looks
• 5:21
  fantastic for the Colts. They have that huge steam move
• 5:23
  -1 1/2 up to -6 1/2 at DraftKings.
• 5:26
  They're getting 56% of spread bets, but 82% of spread dollars.
• 5:32
  And you guys know this from betting UFC, betting the awards
• 5:35
  market. If you're only giving me half
• 5:37
  the tickets but more than eight out of $10, that tells me that
• 5:40
  basically the public is relatively split.
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  Yet all that big money is pouring in on the Colts with a
• 5:45
  great low bets, higher dollars bets split and the UFC.
• 5:48
  If a if a fighter, a biter is getting 56% bets, 82% money.
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  We love that along with the line move in favor, in this case in
• 5:56
  favor of the Indianapolis Colts. So big move toward the Colts.
• 6:00
  Then you're going to ask yourself, OK, what's going on
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  here? You know, why is this line
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  moving so bigly in favor of the Colts?
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  Well, information based bets so critical this time of year.
• 6:10
  We've been using this to profit throughout the preseason.
• 6:13
  And really the angle here is listening to the coaches because
• 6:16
  the coaches this time of year will come right out and tell you
• 6:19
  exactly what they're doing. And now that is a rare
• 6:21
  opportunity because once the regular season gets started,
• 6:24
  they'll never tell you what they're doing.
• 6:25
  They don't want to lose the element of surprise.
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  They don't want to give the opponent any leg up or any
• 6:30
  inside information. But because these are exhibition
• 6:33
  games, they really don't mean anything.
• 6:34
  You know, the the teams aren't per SE trying to win.
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  They're more trying to, you know, protect their players from
• 6:40
  injuries or install their systems or kind of evaluate
• 6:43
  their players so they can get some tape on them and figure out
• 6:47
  who we're going to, you know, who we're going to cut, who
• 6:48
  we're going to keep. So there's a total different
• 6:50
  approach, as you guys know by now, to the preseason, obviously
• 6:53
  compared to the regular season. But here's where it gets good.
• 6:57
  If you look at the Colts now #1 these teams have been joint
• 7:00
  practicing throughout the week. So that is another angle here in
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  terms of a lot of times, you know, coaches will say, hey,
• 7:06
  I'll, I'll play my starters in the joint practices.
• 7:08
  It's a more controlled environment.
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  You can probably avoid injuries more.
• 7:11
  They can get their work in in the joint practices.
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  And then therefore the games really don't matter.
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  They almost value the joint practices more than the actual
• 7:18
  games. But here's where it gets good.
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  If you look at Shane Steiken, the Indianapolis Colts, he came
• 7:24
  out, he right out came out and say it.
• 7:26
  He said, my guys, the starters are going to play about 1/4 and
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  1/2. So you're that means you're
• 7:32
  going to see obviously Anthony Richardson, probably Joe Flacco,
• 7:36
  some of these other quarterbacks here.
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  But really mainly importantly, it's going to be Richardson who
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  was that was the top five pick around their 5th overall pick
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  last year's draft. So Shane Steiken is going to
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  play his starters. Look at the other side with Zach
• 7:51
  Taylor and the Cincinnati Bengals.
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  He's sitting everybody. Nobody's playing no starters, no
• 7:56
  Joe Burrow, no Jamar Chase, all defensive guys.
• 7:59
  They're all sitting. So on the one hand, you have the
• 8:03
  Colts in Steiken saying they're going to play their guys at
• 8:06
  least 1/4 and 1/2 versus Cincinnati.
• 8:09
  Who's going to play nobody. So now we're realizing why this
• 8:12
  line has moved so big toward the Colts -1 1/2 up to -6 and a
• 8:15
  half. Of course, look at the starters
• 8:17
  here in terms of quarterbacks. Again, Richardson's going to get
• 8:20
  some time. Joe Flacco, Keaton Slovis, Jason
• 8:23
  Bean, Sam Ellinger. But it's as much a bet on the
• 8:27
  Colts as it is a bet against Cincinnati.
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  Because with no Joe Burrow, who are you going to get at QB?
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  Well, you're not going to get Jake Browning because he was
• 8:35
  actually banged up in the practice, so he's not going to
• 8:37
  play. Instead, you're going to get
• 8:39
  Logan Woodside and Rocky Lombardi and Woodside and
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  Lombardi, they it's almost a wash, rinse, repeat.
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  They played last week against the Bears and the Cincinnati
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  Bengals lost 27 to three. And Woodside was not good.
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  I think he threw two interceptions.
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  Lombardi, not my buddy Michael Lombardi.
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  Rocky Lombardi, maybe his, his, you know, third, I don't know,
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  fifth cousin there. But those two quarterbacks
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  really did nothing offensively. So I want to bet against those Q
• 9:06
  BS. I want to bet on the
• 9:09
  Indianapolis Colts. And then also if you kind of
• 9:13
  look at the angle here of how so here's the thing, you you want
• 9:17
  to give yourself options. So we know the Colts are playing
• 9:19
  their guys. They got a great bet, split 56%
• 9:22
  bets, 82% money. The lines moved in their favor.
• 9:26
  But how do we want to play them? Do you want to go full game?
• 9:28
  You know, lay the 6 1/2, You know, I was looking at the first
• 9:31
  quarter. They're -2 1/2 to win the first
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  quarter. So can you have a three nothing
• 9:34
  lead? The issue with the 2 1/2, which
• 9:37
  if you want to play it, I get it, is that across the market, a
• 9:41
  lot of these first quarter -2 and a halfs with the Colts are
• 9:44
  like -160 that's a little bit too high for me.
• 9:47
  And I'm also remembering almost exact situation.
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  It was the Patriots against The Who was it the Panthers in week
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  one of the preseason where I think the Patriots had the same
• 9:57
  exact move there -1 1/2 up to -6 1/2.
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  And I kind of outsmarted myself. And I said, hey, good bet, split
• 10:04
  good steam, but that's a big number.
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  I'm feeling I'm getting the worst of it, which is the case.
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  You're getting the worst of it if you're laying 6 1/2.
• 10:10
  What happened? Patriots rolled and covered the
• 10:12
  number. So the thing that I like about
• 10:14
  the full game odds, which that's my bet, I'm going to go full
• 10:17
  game here, guys. I'm going to lay the full 6 1/2
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  with the Colts hoping that they win this game by 7 or more
• 10:23
  because #1 they're playing their guys.
• 10:25
  But #2 if this becomes a second-half game where maybe
• 10:28
  it's closer than we want it to be, like, you know, I'd love
• 10:30
  Indy to win seventeen to three and we don't sweat.
• 10:33
  Of course, it's, you know, betting's never easy, so I'm
• 10:35
  sure they'll be a sweat involved.
• 10:36
  But if it gets in the second-half where we're getting,
• 10:39
  you know, twos against twos, threes against threes, 4 against
• 10:43
  fours, I want to bet against Rocky Lombardi.
• 10:45
  I want to bet against Logan Woodside, and I want to back
• 10:48
  this Indianapolis Colts team. The other thing is that Chain
• 10:50
  Steiken rested all those guys last week.
• 10:53
  All the starters didn't play last week.
• 10:54
  So he's almost going back to what we used to see in the last
• 10:57
  preseason game, which was the dress rehearsal for the regular
• 11:00
  season. So you add it all up here, guys.
• 11:02
  One thing I've noticed no buyback whatsoever on on
• 11:05
  Cincinnati even I see some shops may be going to seven.
• 11:08
  Now the key here if you're going to play the Colts with me is he
• 11:11
  got to get the 6 1/2 because if they win by 7, a key number, you
• 11:15
  push your -7 if you get your 6 1/2 and they win by 7, you win
• 11:19
  your bet. But we have a great bet split a
• 11:21
  massive steam move with no buyback whatsoever.
• 11:24
  Like it's not like this line got up to 6 1/2.
• 11:26
  Now it's coming back down to six.
• 11:27
  If anything, looks like it might go even further through 7, so
• 11:30
  I'm going to jump on that. Minus 6 1/2 right now.
• 11:33
  Great bet split, great steam. Colts playing their guys taking
• 11:36
  this game seriously. Bengals are resting, everybody.
• 11:39
  Let's see if the Colts can come through and win by 7 or more.
• 11:41
  I'm on the Colts at -6 1/2. Now over to the Major League
• 11:46
  Baseball slate. Couple games here that caught my
• 11:48
  eye, including a game upcoming quickly here, Tampa Bay and
• 11:52
  Oakland. So we've been playing a few
• 11:54
  games throughout the series or at least we played the 1:00 last
• 11:56
  night getting our under Does look like the under seven half
• 12:00
  is juiced up again today if you like the under, but I'm going to
• 12:03
  look toward taking Tampa Bay in this one guys.
• 12:05
  So setting the stage is the final game of a four-game
• 12:07
  series. The A's who are 54 and 73, they
• 12:10
  won that opener 3 nothing as a + 105 home dog.
• 12:13
  Then the Rays, who are 64 and 52, they took the next two
• 12:17
  games. They won one nothing on Tuesday
• 12:19
  as a -, 120 Rd. favorite. One again yesterday, four to two
• 12:22
  cashing our under 7 1/2 as a - 130 Rd. favorite.
• 12:27
  So for this series finale, which is a 3:37 PM Eastern Time game,
• 12:31
  hopefully the pod can drop and you can listen in time to put
• 12:33
  this one in. If you want to sweat it with me.
• 12:35
  We've seen some good movement toward Tampa Bay.
• 12:37
  The Tampa Bay Rays open this game as low as a -, 110 -, 115
• 12:41
  home favorite. Now they're up to -120 -, 125 S
• 12:45
  pretty one sided movement in favor of the Rays.
• 12:48
  Now the Rays aren't a massive public bet.
• 12:50
  You would think you know Tampa a good team each year.
• 12:52
  You don't know how they do it, but they keep doing it Against
• 12:54
  Oakland was pretty bad, but the Rays are only getting around
• 12:57
  5960% of bets, so it's not a huge 7080% bet support.
• 13:03
  So I like the fact that even though it's, you know, just
• 13:05
  slightly public, you do get this, you know, 5-10 cents steam
• 13:08
  move in favor of the Rays. The Rays will match a lot of
• 13:10
  systems. For me.
• 13:11
  One would be that classic non division favorite.
• 13:14
  So lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
• 13:16
  better team favorite low total correlative betting your
• 13:19
  favorite -120 as high as -125 at some shops with a total of 7 1/2
• 13:24
  that's juiced under. So hopefully we get another, I
• 13:26
  don't know 3 to one three nothing Tampa Bay win here.
• 13:29
  And then you also get non division Rd. favorites off a
• 13:31
  win. They're 149 and one O 858% this
• 13:35
  year with a 3% ROI. Sweet spot.
• 13:38
  Short Rd. favorites -130 or less.
• 13:41
  They're 186 and one 5654% with a nearly 2% ROI.
• 13:46
  And then also, if you look at Jeffrey Springs, did I even tell
• 13:49
  you the pitching match up here? I think I might, I might have
• 13:52
  skipped over that, but Jeffrey Springs is going for Tampa Bay.
• 13:54
  He's one and one with a 3.86 ERA, and Osvaldo Bido is four
• 14:00
  and three with a 3.4 O ERA going for Oakland.
• 14:03
  But in particular, Jeffrey Springs, this guy was injured.
• 14:06
  He's a pretty good lefty. He's only made four starts this
• 14:08
  year. And in those games, Tampa's
• 14:10
  three and one. Also, Oakland going up against
• 14:13
  the lefty Springs, they're only hitting 237 against lefties,
• 14:16
  that's 22nd and Major League Baseball and the Rays by the
• 14:19
  way, are four and two against the A's this year.
• 14:21
  So they've had their number. It's a short price.
• 14:23
  The line moved in their favor, got a bunch of good betting
• 14:26
  systems, correlative betting as well as non division favorite.
• 14:29
  And we have an opportunity to back Tampa Bay at a pretty short
• 14:32
  chalk price. So shop around.
• 14:34
  I got Tampa Bay at -120 keep on cruising.
• 14:38
  Last game of the night here. Let's stay up late, sweat the
• 14:41
  Mets and the San Diego fathers. And I heard you may, might or
• 14:44
  might not know which direction I'm going with this one.
• 14:46
  But anyway, this is the first game, the three-game series the
• 14:50
  Mets come in 66 and 61. Just took two or three against
• 14:54
  the Orioles. They won yesterday, four to
• 14:55
  three as a -, 140 home favorite. Meanwhile, the fathers 72 and
• 15:00
  56, they've been red hot in the second-half, just took two of
• 15:03
  three against the Twins but did not get the sweep.
• 15:06
  They lost 11 to four yesterday as a -, 120 home favorite.
• 15:10
  So in the series opener for tonight, the Mets are going to
• 15:12
  go with the ready Luis Severino. He's eight and six with a 3.91
• 15:16
  ERA. Meanwhile, the fathers are going
• 15:18
  to go with the fellow ready Dylan Cease, who they picked up
• 15:21
  from the White Sox. Remember, he threw the no, no,
• 15:23
  he's had a Goodyear 12 and nine 3.46 ERA.
• 15:26
  What have we seen across the market here?
• 15:29
  Well, good one sided movement in favor of San Diego.
• 15:32
  So that's where I'm going guys. Give me the fathers.
• 15:34
  Padres open this game as always, a -, 140 -, 145 home favorite.
• 15:39
  Now we're seeing the fathers up to -150 -, 155.
• 15:42
  Some shops even closer to -160 So one sided movement in favor
• 15:47
  of San Diego. No buyback whatsoever.
• 15:49
  Padres are getting around 80% of bets in dollars.
• 15:52
  So both pro and Joe support. But to me it's really more
• 15:55
  importantly that line move towards San Diego that tells me
• 15:58
  smart money is on the Padres. A bunch of good system matches
• 16:01
  here. You'd also have again, same
• 16:03
  thing with the rays favorite low total total on this one is 7 1/2
• 16:07
  line moving toward the favorite as well as that seven and half
• 16:09
  being juiced under. And you also have the non
• 16:11
  division favorite lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN
• 16:14
  quote the better team who's expected to win now favorites
• 16:17
  off a loss playing an opponent off a win four O 5 and two 8159%
• 16:22
  with a 1% ROI this year. And I'm going to bank on
• 16:25
  hopefully not just cease pitching well and the bats of
• 16:28
  San Diego getting to Severino, but also overall just the Padres
• 16:32
  offense. They're hitting 265 on the year
• 16:34
  versus 249 for the Mets. Severino has actually been worse
• 16:38
  on the road than at home. I guess that's obvious or
• 16:40
  typically what you see, But he's been good at Citi Field, 3.13
• 16:44
  ERA. But on the road he has a 4.85
• 16:48
  ERA. So hasn't been great on the
• 16:49
  road. He's on the road tonight.
• 16:51
  Meanwhile, San Diego six and one and Dylan ceases last seven
• 16:54
  starts. Padres are six and four their
• 16:56
  last ten games, hitting 258 with a 3.93 ERA.
• 17:01
  Mets are five and five over the last 10, only hitting 2:45 with
• 17:04
  a 4.65 team ERA and also going up against some Radies today,
• 17:09
  Severino and Cease. San Diego is hitting 272 against
• 17:13
  Radies. That's number one in baseball.
• 17:15
  New York is hitting 245 against Radies.
• 17:18
  That's 15th. So we have a line move towards
• 17:20
  San Diego. You have a bunch of good betting
• 17:22
  systems favorite low total non division favorite better bats.
• 17:27
  I want to fade Severino. I want I want to back Dylan
• 17:29
  cease. I'm going San Diego here guys so
• 17:32
  shop around. I got the Padres at -155 S Tampa
• 17:36
  Bay and San Diego as well as the Colts hopefully rolling laying 6
• 17:41
  1/2. Can we get two out of three?
• 17:43
  That is the goal for tonight. That about does it guys.
• 17:47
  Another podcast here in the books, maybe a little little
• 17:49
  shorter, little sweeter, but of course we don't want to force
• 17:52
  anything and we do want to play the system matches that reveal
• 17:56
  themselves to us. So trying to get two or three
• 17:58
  for the three pack here for today.
• 18:00
  Now, this is the part of the pod where I ask a few things of you
• 18:03
  and also leave you the few things as well.
• 18:05
  But the first thing I'm gonna ask of you is can you please
• 18:07
  help me to grow this podcast? The easiest and best way to do
• 18:11
  that is to give this podcast a 5 star review.
• 18:15
  So if you are listening on Spotify or iTunes #1 thank you.
• 18:18
  I mean so much to me that you take the time out of your day to
• 18:21
  pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some sweat some
• 18:24
  sharp contrarian plays with me. But if you could give it a 5
• 18:26
  star review on Spotify or iTunes, I'd really appreciate
• 18:29
  it. That would help us to grow the
• 18:30
  pod, rise up the charts and the ratings.
• 18:33
  The more five star reviews, the more respect that we earn across
• 18:36
  the market. But I hope it's not a, you know,
• 18:38
  just I'm begging for it. But hopefully you, you agree
• 18:40
  that this pod is, is insightful and it's helped you to cash some
• 18:44
  bets and a five star review would really make my day.
• 18:47
  Also, if you want to recommend the pod to a friend or a family
• 18:51
  member or a buddy of yours or someone who loves betting on
• 18:53
  sports but really has no strategy, maybe you can show
• 18:57
  them the data-driven contrarian strategy strategy that we
• 18:59
  employ. But if you want to recommend it
• 19:02
  to a friend, word of mouth is always the best way because you
• 19:05
  take people you respect a little bit more seriously then maybe
• 19:08
  just stumbling upon something randomly.
• 19:11
  And then also, if there's an option to follow the pod, if
• 19:14
  there's a follow button where you can click that, please do.
• 19:17
  That way you'll get alerted as soon as it drops each day and
• 19:19
  hopefully you can get a good number before it moves.
• 19:22
  Next, if you enjoy these breakdowns because you are now
• 19:26
  introduced to the world of data-driven betting, where we
• 19:28
  are analyzing the market Now we're looking at numbers, how
• 19:31
  they move, bet percentages, bet splits, system matches, going
• 19:36
  contrarian, you know, placing, you know, flat betting instead
• 19:40
  of parlaying. If this style of betting appeals
• 19:42
  to you and you're now starting to see some results here,
• 19:45
  hopefully with your account increasing, then guess what
• 19:49
  There's a way to learn more about data-driven betting and
• 19:51
  also make me happy and support the team.
• 19:54
  You can do it very simply by buying my book.
• 19:56
  That's right. Did you know that I wrote a book
• 19:58
  that I'm very proud of? It's called the Everything Guide
• 20:01
  to Sports Betting. So just go to Amazon.com and
• 20:03
  type in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 20:06
  Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
• 20:08
  I mean, it would really mean a lot to me, guys, not just a
• 20:11
  something to do to make me happy.
• 20:12
  And let me know you appreciate the hard work that I put in
• 20:15
  grinding in the arena. But it's going to give you some
• 20:17
  insight as well. Or you can gift it to a buddy of
• 20:19
  yours or a friend or your dad or your son or your aunt or uncle
• 20:22
  or whoever. But it's something you can hold
• 20:25
  in your hand, revisit, highlight.
• 20:27
  Something you know, kind of something that you can lean on
• 20:30
  literally physically by flipping the pages, writing in the
• 20:33
  margins and something to harken back to.
• 20:35
  But the everything guide to sports betting, it's got
• 20:38
  everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are set, how
• 20:40
  and why they move, how to read line movement, how to locate
• 20:43
  sharp action, how to place the bet in person or online, how to
• 20:46
  shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management
• 20:49
  plan, chapters on all the major sports, NFL, college football
• 20:52
  about to return. So if you want to pick one up or
• 20:55
  you already have, I would really appreciate it.
• 20:56
  And when I see at the book, I'll sign my book for you and I'll
• 20:59
  buy you a beer or a ginger ale. Lastly, have you signed up for a
• 21:04
  7 day free trial of Rhythm and Juice Reel?
• 21:07
  Well, if you haven't done it yet, I want you to do that right
• 21:09
  now. All you have to do is click the
• 21:11
  custom links that are located in the bio description of this
• 21:14
  podcast. Whether you're listening on
• 21:16
  Spotify or iTunes, you should see the description of this pod.
• 21:19
  It'll say episode 103, Josh dishes out a three pack of
• 21:22
  sweats. Scroll down.
• 21:24
  It'll have a link to Rhythm and a link to Juice Reel.
• 21:26
  And that's the way I want you guys to sign up so that they
• 21:29
  know that I'm doing my part to spread the word about Rhythm and
• 21:32
  Juice Reel. But Rhythm is great.
• 21:34
  They've done a ton of work over the offseason getting ready for
• 21:36
  football and you're starting to see some of it pop right now.
• 21:39
  But whether it's WNBANFL, college football system matches,
• 21:43
  player props, golf, NBA, college basketball, it's all happening
• 21:48
  or it's about to happen right now.
• 21:49
  And Rhythm does a great job with their AI backed data-driven
• 21:52
  picks and predictions models that either you can follow or
• 21:56
  you can create your own. But it's a great resource to
• 21:58
  help you win. And then also Juice Reel
• 22:00
  fantastic for syncing up for sports books.
• 22:03
  That way you place a bet on FanDuel bet MGM whatever
• 22:05
  platform it automatically goes to your juice reel report card
• 22:08
  where you can get a running record of your results.
• 22:11
  Learn about yourself as a better figure out what your strengths
• 22:13
  are your weaknesses are keep you honest based upon your results.
• 22:17
  Your juice reel robo Jackson AI best best bet picks each day
• 22:22
  there's two of them. They come out at noon arbitrage
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  opportunities sharp mush opportunities.
• 22:26
  It's a great and also great promos you can take advantage
• 22:29
  of, but it is another great resource to add to your
• 22:32
  data-driven digital toolbox. So go sign up for Juice Reel, go
• 22:36
  sign up for Rhythm. It helps.
• 22:37
  They help me to win. They're gonna help you to win.
• 22:40
  Lastly, that about does it for today's pod, but I'll leave you
• 22:43
  with a couple things as I always do, because we're all about
• 22:46
  grinding and routines. I guess as sports bettors, we're
• 22:49
  also pretty superstitious, I would also say.
• 22:52
  But whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 22:55
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 22:57
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
• 23:00
  Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino, R.E.M.
• 23:02
  GM Springfield and my neck of the woods in Massachusetts are
• 23:05
  out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
• 23:07
  Or Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice
• 23:10
  possible is found at the South Point.
• 23:12
  Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
• 23:14
  swim pool at Circa. Wherever it may be, you're going
• 23:17
  to walk up to me and show me a nice night of winning tickets.
• 23:21
  Show me a Cardinals Nolan Arenado walk off ticket.
• 23:24
  Show me a Phillies ticket. Show me a Dodgers ticket.
• 23:27
  Show me a Tampa Bay Oakland under 7 1/2.
• 23:29
  Guess what first one's on me, next one's on you.
• 23:31
  We're going to post that at the book and sweat sharp contrarian
• 23:34
  place all night long. So wish you the best of luck
• 23:37
  everyone. As always, remember this stay
• 23:39
  sharp, stay contrarian. Bet against the public.
• 23:42
  Place yourself on the side of the house.
• 23:44
  Always be with the smart money, never against it.
• 23:46
  Will smart money when every time?
• 23:48
  Of course not. But here's the thing, we're
• 23:49
  always playing a long game. Anything can happen in a one
• 23:52
  off. Sports betting is difficult.
• 23:54
  That's why when you go one and three, hey, you don't get too
• 23:57
  down on yourself. When you go four and one, you
• 23:59
  don't get too cocky and arrogant.
• 24:00
  You stay even keeled and you continue to grind.
• 24:03
  Make making bets with your head and not your heart.
• 24:06
  But here's the thing, even though sports betting is
• 24:07
  difficult, we can win by staying true to the model, the
• 24:10
  data-driven model against the public, with the house, with the
• 24:14
  pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing line value.
• 24:17
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors
• 24:20
  long term. So have a great thirsty
• 24:22
  Thursday, everyone 3 bets here. Let's try to go two and one.
• 24:26
  And that way we'll be we'll be feeling good going into a big
• 24:28
  Friday, which of course you know what Fridays mean Fridays mean
• 24:32
  UFC parting system matches. So get ready for another week or
• 24:37
  big weekend, I should say, of UFC Octagon, which I cannot wait
• 24:41
  for. But anyway, guys have a
• 24:43
  fantastic Thursday. I'll see you tomorrow for
• 24:45
  episode one O 4 of the all systems go sports betting
• 24:49
  podcast powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
• 24:52
  great Thursday night.