Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Full Episode - The SAVE Act Degrades Democracy, Not Save It + Trump’s Luck Finally Ran Out In Iran

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Full Episode - The SAVE Act Degrades Democracy, Not Save It + Trump’s Luck Finally Ran Out In Iran · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. Hello there,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: welcome to Thursday edition of the Chuck Toodcast. We have
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: a fantastic episode for you. My big guest today is
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Fiona Hill. You may remember Fiona Hill from the very
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: first Trump administration. She was on the National Security Staff
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: with the portfolio of Russia. She is not somebody you
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: would call trumpy. I think she was arguably brought in
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: by the hr Holdeman team and she was sort of
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  Speaker 1: part of that part of that group of Trump staffers.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: In term one that was there to restrain Trump, if
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: you will, I don't know if she would put it
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: as starkly as I put it, but whether it's hr
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: McMaster or you had John Kelly or even a Wright's prebus,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: and you know that there was a lot, particularly in
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: the national security space, of making sure all the guardrails
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: were there, and it was about keeping him from going
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: too much off the reservation. Obviously, folks like Fienna Hill
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: were not welcome back into a second Trump term. But
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  Speaker 1: Fiona Hill's expertise on Russia in particular is no less
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: important these days, and so we have a great conversation
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: about how Russia may view Iran at the moment, how
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  Speaker 1: they view this war, where's this headed, but most importantly,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: where are we headed post Trump? What's the world going
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  Speaker 1: to look like? What is geopolitical politics going to look like.
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  Speaker 1: It's a pretty healthy exchange. And if you've ever spent
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: time reading or hearing from Fiona Hill, I think you
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: will enjoy this conversation. We spend a lot of time
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  Speaker 1: in the war, it so in Iran and sort of
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the whether Trump fully appreciates what he has gotten himself into.
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  Speaker 1: And in fact, if you just look at the headlines
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: in the last twenty four hours. You know, what is
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: happening is exactly what people like Fiona Hill and others
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: would have warned him about and probably did warn him
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: about in the first term, and did warn him when
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: he made the decision to go after Solomoni, and did
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: warn him when he made the decision to bomb Iran
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  Speaker 1: the first time, of what could happen. The fact that
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: you may get an asymmetrical response. Well, we're in that
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  Speaker 1: awkward phase of this war where militarily it's a huge success.
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  Speaker 1: There's no doubt the targets that we have chosen to bomb,
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  Speaker 1: we've been successful with it. So as a military operation,
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  Speaker 1: everything is going fairly well. But the problem is that
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  Speaker 1: the definition of victory for the Iranians now is simply surviving. Right,
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  Speaker 1: just like in some ways in Fiona Hill, well she
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  Speaker 1: makes this direct comparison. It's sort of similar to how
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Russia viewed Ukraine. They thought it would be quick and dirty,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: they thought it would be easy, and then it wasn't.
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  Speaker 1: And then suddenly, even though maybe tactically Russia can make
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: more advances into Ukraine and they're acquiring territory here, the
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  Speaker 1: fact that the Ukrainians haven't folded is in itself a
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  Speaker 1: loss for the Russians. And when you make regime change
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  Speaker 1: the focal point, which the President did when he first
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  Speaker 1: began this effort, when he said the goal he hoped
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  Speaker 1: that Iranians would stand up and take their government back,
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  Speaker 1: wasn't as direct as what the Israelis want. The Israelis
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: have made no secret about their goals in this war,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: and they actually have very clear goals in this war.
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  Speaker 1: It is to eradicate the threat of this Iranian regime
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  Speaker 1: that includes regime chains, and this is why they're trying
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  Speaker 1: to eradicate as blood and right. So whatever, you may
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  Speaker 1: disagree with some of Israel's tactics, but unlike the United States,
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  Speaker 1: they have a clear mission. They have a clear set
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: of goals, and they're trying to execute a strategy in
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: order to achieve those goals. Obviously, we do not have
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: those same set of goals. What does that look like?
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  Speaker 1: And he is he has boxed himself in because the
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  Speaker 1: military success is not leading to a policy victory, right,
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  Speaker 1: and suddenly just the regime surviving is in and of
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  Speaker 1: itself a victory for the Iranian reas because they weren't
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  Speaker 1: knocked out. They weren't taken out by the big bad
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  Speaker 1: Satan of the United States. Right, So he's got an
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  Speaker 1: energy crisis on his hands. And then if he wants
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  Speaker 1: to leave and I spend some time with her, it's
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  Speaker 1: like okay, Fiona Hill. He's going to want to get out.
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  Speaker 1: He knows this thing is on. How does he do it?
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  Speaker 1: And it's not clear how easily he can get out.
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  Speaker 1: He can stop the bombing, he can stop participating, but
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  Speaker 1: it doesn't mean the straits of horn Moves are going
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: to be open for business for shipping, whether that's for
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: oil or for goods. And they're still going to be
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  Speaker 1: a tactical need by the US military to protect our
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  Speaker 1: allies and to protect and to keep the waters open there.
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  Speaker 1: So he is going to get dragged in. So the
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  Speaker 1: question is does he get tucked into ground troops. One
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  Speaker 1: would assume he wouldn't, but if he wants to achieve
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  Speaker 1: the goal of regime change, he would have no other choice.
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  Speaker 1: Does he just keep this up and hope that over
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  Speaker 1: time they just wear them down? That awfully costly, it's
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  Speaker 1: softly expensive. And then you get accidents like the US
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  Speaker 1: military targeting a girls' school rather than it was it
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  Speaker 1: was the wrong target. We are now admitting this. We'll
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  Speaker 1: see if the President puts his own face behind this.
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  Speaker 1: It's unlikely he tried to say it might have been
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  Speaker 1: the Iranians that did it, using us stolen US weapons
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  Speaker 1: to somehow blame America for this. It is pretty clear
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  Speaker 1: that we either had old information targeting the wrong thing,
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  Speaker 1: but we are accepting the blame for this. The question
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  Speaker 1: is what you know, how how do we behave? How
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  Speaker 1: does the president behave and actually put this information out
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  Speaker 1: or is it a typical Trump and he refuses to
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  Speaker 1: do it and makes egg Seth do it or makes
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  Speaker 1: General Kine do it, which is also a possibility. Few
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: other headlines that you shouldn't miss in the war itself.
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  Speaker 1: ABC News is reporting that the FBI let California sheriffs
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  Speaker 1: and other law enforcement officials know of a potential threat
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  Speaker 1: of Iranian drone strikes from the Pacific Ocean targeting California
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  Speaker 1: towns that would be and this is the fear of
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: this war is that it essentially goes asymmetrical or horizontal,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: where they try to make the cost of this very
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: expensive bombing ports, putting minds in the straight of horn moves.
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  Speaker 1: There are sleepers, perhaps sleeper cells in western cities all
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  Speaker 1: over the world that get targeted with Iranian supported terrorist attacks.
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  Speaker 1: These are the concerns, and this is the metastasizing that's
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  Speaker 1: always been something that many a policy advisor to many
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  Speaker 1: a president who who is asked, Okay, what should we
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  Speaker 1: do here? Should we try to take out this regime
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  Speaker 1: has always been sort of pulled back by all of
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  Speaker 1: the potential fallout and how complicated the fallout is. Unlike
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  Speaker 1: unlike Liberation Day, he can't just turn it off. And
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  Speaker 1: so it is we're we're He is in this. That's
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  Speaker 1: why I called it quicksand the other day. He's in
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  Speaker 1: quicksand now and it is hard to imagine how he's
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  Speaker 1: fully going to extricate himself from this without still doing
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  Speaker 1: a lot of damage to our alliances, leaving the Middle
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  Speaker 1: East in total shambles and screwing up the economy. Other
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  Speaker 1: than that, this is going really well. And again militarily
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  Speaker 1: it is, and it's and you know, I think there's
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  Speaker 1: a noble goal here. Getting rid of the scourge that
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  Speaker 1: is this Iranian regime would be good for the region,
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  Speaker 1: would be good for the Iranian people. But is this
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  Speaker 1: the best way to do it? And are we blowing
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  Speaker 1: our credibility to a point where this stuff's going to
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: get harder down the road, not easier. So, and we
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  Speaker 1: also learned that the initial drone attack that killed those
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: first service members that died, it's a pretty vicious attack.
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  Speaker 1: We've got seriously injured soldiers. This was a CBS News
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  Speaker 1: report that indicated this serious, seriously injured soldiers in that
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  Speaker 1: attack on an American installation in Kuwait. So the costs
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  Speaker 1: of this war are escalating and the actual cost of
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: this war is going to be expensive, and it's going
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  Speaker 1: to be an extraordinarily tough vote in Congress that I
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  Speaker 1: can promise you. And Republicans already know this because they're
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: thinking about doing a reconciliation bill, believe it or not. Right,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: they can't figure out an electioneer agenda. They can't agree
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: on anything. They just had their House retreat where half
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  Speaker 1: the members didn't even show up. Right, this is a
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: House republ look and majority that kind of knows it's
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: over right. The rank and file look like they've already
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: pulled ripcord. Half of them didn't show up. Now some
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: of them are probably among that one hundred plus that
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: didn't show up. A bunch of them are retiring, and
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: a bunch of others are running for higher office and
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: don't want to be associated with the House Republican brand
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: at this point. But this is a demoralized majority. They
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: don't know what to run on, and the war in
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Iran has now complicated this, and they're going to have
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: to figure out how to fund this war, and it's
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: possible the only way they could avoid a potential sixty
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: vote threshold to fund this war in the Senate is
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: to do this under the rules of reconciliation, which means
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: no filibustering, which means fifty votes. And the fact that
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: they're already talking about that as a way to fund
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: this war, in some ways, it's pretty self defeating. And
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: they realize what a political loser this is, that the
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: only choice they have is to make this a loyalty
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: test for the President and that they're going to need
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: him whipping the vote for this, and I think we
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: know where that's going to come from. The other one
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: other sort of extraneous war nugget that I wanted to
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: get to is the boy this Pete hegseth Man. He is,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: he is. I'd say he's so thin skinned he has
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: no skin left. Apparently they have now barred press photographers
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: from the press briefing because they thought the photos that
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: were circulating in the various syndication sites where people get
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: photographs were unflattering to mister hag seth Man. This guy's
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: got a lot of issues. I don't know if they're
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Freudian these issues, if there's something else, but you know,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: his he definitely that guy. You could put him on
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: the couch and go a lot of different directions, but
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: he clearly that the fact that he's the guy in
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: charge of this war at the moment. I'm gonna be honest,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: it's not very reassuring. You have somebody who's this thin skin,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: somebody who can't take any negative criticism at all, is
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: supposed to be out there, you know, making the tough
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: calls that are necessary when running a war. I mean
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: talk about talk about not giving reassurance to the American people.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: This guy cannot give any real and his his overt
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: his religiosity or I don't know if it's even real.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: It may be, it may be real, Right, I'm not
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: going to question his faith, but to to insert it
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: into the public square. The way he's doing it is
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: it's not a unifying thing to do, and it certainly
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: makes those that serve who are who don't share his
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: faith and don't share his belief system really isolates them.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: And uh and and I think makes it that much
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: harder to have a cohesive unit. So this is, you know,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: with a very serious war we're engaged in, and we
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: have an completely unseerious and unprepared leader at the Defense Department.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: You know, look, he never should have been confirmed. A
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: handful of Republican senators knew it, and they got They
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: got extorted, basically. And when I say they got extorted,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: they got threatened, right, I think it's pretty clear Tilla
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Scott and Jonny Ernst were both threatened to points. And
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: I think there's a reason neither one of them are
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: running for reelection. And I think it has a lot
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: to do with the confirmation fight over Haigsith because it
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: was clear he was unqualified for this job. It was
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: clear Jenny Earnst thought he was unqualified. It was clear
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Tom Tillis thought he was unqualified. They both ended up
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: having to support this and they both decided not to
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: seek reelection. That wasn't a coincidence, but we are now
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: seeing why. And I'm sorry that they didn't have the
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: guts then to stand up to what they knew it
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: was wrong. They knew he was unqualified, and now we
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: are paying the price for what happens. We have a
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: very serious event here. Look, President made the decision. How
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: we conduct ourselves, how we unwind from this. You need
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: serious leadership with the Pentagon, and we do not have
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: it at the moment. It's very disconcerting, and I think
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: we this is one of those things where there's kind
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: of a bipartisan consensus that that knows this. Yet we
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: know you have to stay silent apparently if you're on
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: the Republican side of aisle, and that that is a
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: considering that life and death. These are somebody in charge
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: of life and death decisions at the moment. I know
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: if I was the parent of a servant, an active
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: duty service member right now, I'd be very very concerned
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: about who is calling the shots here. All right, I
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: want to move. I want to spend a little bit
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: of time. This is a this is a request actually
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: from from a few folks close to me, who I
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: think there hasn't been a good explanation for what's this,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: This fight over the so called the Save Act, which
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: is the Republican version of trying to deal with election integrity,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: and we had a Democratic version of this that was
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: known as HR one back in twenty twenty one, and
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: I thought it would be important to explain the actual
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: details and explain the philosophical debate that is actually taking
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: place between the two parties, and then the sort of
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: demagoguery aspect of this that Trump is inserted in that
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: is blowing this whole thing up. And of course the
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: irony is that the fight over this, the polarization and
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: the partisan weaponization of this bill, could lead Republicans in
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: the Senate to get rid of the filibuster. Now I'm skeptical,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: but now, John Cornyn, I mean, here's a reminder. When
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: you're desperate to win reelection, your principles are the first
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: thing that go out the door. Apparently he is somebody
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: that has been a fierce defender of the filibuster until
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: it was got in the way of his need to
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: get Donald Trump to endorse his runoff candidacy in Texas.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: And now he's flipped and he is willing to get
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: rid of the filibuster if it is used to pass
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: the so called Save Act. So maybe this is real.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Maybe this is on the table. I'm skeptical the Republicans
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: have the votes to kill the filibuster. I don't think
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: they do. I think, you know, we know the least
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: trumpy constituency left in the Republican Party are Senate Republicans.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't believe Mike Grounds will do this. Okay,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: I don't believe Tom Tillis is going to do this.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: I don't believe Bill Cassidy is going to do this,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: of course, but I would have said two days ago,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: I didn't believe John Cornyn was going to do this.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: But you know, everything is for sale in this version,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: in Donald Trump's version of the Republican Party, including integrity
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: and principles. So thought I thought I would instead, let's
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: lay out sort of the larger debate here over elect
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: integrity and what are the true north stars of both parties.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: So the primary goal, right, I think this is an
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: easy way to explain it. The primary goal of HR
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: one Right for the People back in twenty twenty one
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: was expansion and access. Essentially, they wanted to federalize standards
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: to make voting easier. The primary goal of the Save
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: America Act is security and verification. They want to federalized
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: standards to make voter registration stricter. The Democrats and HR
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: one wanted automatic voter registration right, they wanted to move
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: the burden to the government to register you via the DMV.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: With the Republicans, they go the opposite way, and they
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: wanted proof of citizenship and they are moving the burden
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: to the voter to provide physical proof of citizenship in
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: order to get to vote. When it comes to the
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: voter rolls. HR one wanted to protect purging to prevent
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: voters from being removed, whilst the Save Act wants to
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: mandate frequent purges using DHS citizenship databases to do this. Then,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: of course there's the issue of mail voting. Mandatory access required.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: The HR one was going to require states to offer
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: that you had to offer no excuse mail in ballot options.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: They didn't say how many dates or whatever it was,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: but you know, whether it's a week, two weeks, etc.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: What the Save Act would do in its current form,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: it would seek to end universal mail in voting, and
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: of course Trump wants to even put more curbs on that,
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: which that version of it would have to pass one
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: more time in the House because that wasn't in this version.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: So let's dig in deeper in here into the Save Act.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: There's a significant gap between the bill that cleared the
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: House and the version that President Trump has been championing
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: on the bully pulpit over the last couple of days.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: Here's what the actually passed the House. The core of
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: it is the documentary proof of citizenship. So to register
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: to vote in this bill that passed the House, you
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: need a passport, a birth certificate, or a so called
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: real ID that specifically denotes citizenship on the ID. And
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: it also requires states to submit voter rolls to the
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: Department of Homeland Security for quote unquote scrubbing. Now, what
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Trump is advocating, he actually is up the Annie. He
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: said he's not going to sign any major spending bills
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: unless this Save Act is gold plate it. So he
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: wants the following additions that were not in the original
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: House text. He wants a total ban on mail in
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: ballots except for military and disability. He wants a one day,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: one vote manday. He wants all voting on one day,
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: and then he's got some unrelated culture war writers that
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: he throws in their bands on transgender participation in sports.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Things like that. This episode of the Chuck Podcast is
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• 22:36
  Speaker 1: let's talk about the reality of the Senate. The bill
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: is currently stalled in the Senate, and this is the
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: bill without those extra gold plated editions that Trump wants advocated.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: It needs sixty votes to overcome a filibuster, and Republicans
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: have a narrow majority. They don't have the sixty votes,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: and they're obviously this is the moment we're in. They're
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: having this quote debate about whether they should nuke the filibuster,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: and like I said, I don't think they have the
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: votes to do it, and if they do, and I
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: specially think they don't have the votes to do it.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: Now when the reality of Democrats winning control of the
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: Senate is not a fantasy anymore, it is a pretty
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: realistic outcome of the twenty twenty six elections. Is it
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: the most likely outcome? No, but it is not an
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: unlikely outcome. Right. We are sitting in the forty percent range,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: forty to forty five percent range when it comes to Democrats'
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: chances of taking the Senate, and I promise you, if
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: the Republicans are the one to get rid of the Philipbuster,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: Democrats aren't going to be the ones to put it back. Now,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: let's talk about the core argument and what I think
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: is a trap of this partisan power graph. Right. You
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: see the framing of this, particularly with partisan influencers and
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: partisan members of the press, that this is voter integrity
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: versus voter suppression. But what this really is is I
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: don't think election laws have any moral authority the public
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: when they are passed on a fifty one to forty
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: nine basis, And if you do this on a partisan basis,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: you literally delegitimize the democracy. And maybe that's the feature
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: not the bug of what Donald Trump is up to.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: But let me set that aside. Here's what's interesting is
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: how similar the oppositional rhetoric is to both bills. Right,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: when Democrats try to pass HR one, right, the same
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: thing that happened here. Right, they passed it in the House.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: I couldn't get it done in the Senate. When Democrats
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: passed HR one, Republicans called it a federal takeover and
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: a power graph because it was written by one party
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: to to benefit a their perceived base of younger urban voters. Well,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: we're sort of got a mirror image in the Save Act.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: The Save Act is seen by the left as a
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: power grab designed to disenfranchise voters who lack easy access
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: to birth certificates or who rely on mail in voting,
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: like seniors and roll of voters. Now here's the problem.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: When the rules of the game change every four years
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: based on who holds the power, the public will lose
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: faith in the results of the game. Right, It's like
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: allowing allowing the University of Miami or Indiana University. If
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: the University of Miami's a home team, they get to
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: pick the officials, and if Indiana University's they get to
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: pick the officials, right, they get to hire the officials.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: We wouldn't. We're already a little skeptical when in these
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: interconference matchups, when say it's Miami versus Florida and you
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: have to deal with SEC officials or ACC officials, Right,
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: one side doesn't trust that the other conference doesn't have
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: you know, you want a neutral third party conference, right.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: I believe we had either big I think we had
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: big ten officials doing the Miami Indiana National title game.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: He's not big ten officers, big twelve officials, I believe,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: or yes, it was big twelve officials. Then we had
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: SEC officials I think for a game when we played
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: Ohio State. But the point was you had neutral arbiters
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: because there would have been questions of legitimacy and concerns
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: that there wasn't going to be fairness there, particularly since
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: there's a financial incentive for conferences to do well in
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: these in these in these deals. So this is you know,
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: we're going to change the rules fifty one to forty nine. Right,
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: Eventually the loser is never going to accept the outcome.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: And so this is why the Save Act isn't just
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: about citizenship. It's a fundamental shift in the contract of
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: American voting. It moves from a system of self attestation,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: meaning I sign a legal oath under penalty of perjury
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: if I'm lying about my citizenship or lying that I'm
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: dual registered somewhere, to a permission based system where you
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: have to have government has to verify whether you're allowed
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: to vote. That's what the you know, Iranians decide who
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: gets to vote, the Iranian government does. That's not the
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: way the United States system was meant to work, all right. Now,
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: let's dive into this election integrity war. It's a term,
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: depending on who you ask, is either a shield for
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: democracy or sel sledgehammer against it. So right now we
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: are seeing a collision of two very different, very partisan
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: visions of how you and I actually get a ballot.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: On one side, you have the ghost of HR one.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: On the other side, you of the current battle over
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: the Save America Act. Now, if you're getting your news
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: from social media, you probably think the Save Act is
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: just common sense or total suppression, right, depending on which
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: algorithm you're fed. But let's be honest, the policy reality
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: is a lot more complicated, and the political strategy is
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: even more cynical than itutlooks. So let's go back to
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. Democrats wanted to federalize elections by mandating
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: automatic voter registration. The idea the government should find you
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: if you're at the DMV, you're on the rules. Well,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: fast forward to twenty twenty six. House Republicans pass the
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Save America Act, and it is the exact inverse. It
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: doesn't just reject automatic registration. It makes registration eight show
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: your papers event. It mandates documentary proof of citizenship. We're
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: talking birth certificates, passports, and specific real IDs that denote citizenship.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: So this is what actually passed the House last month.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: A requirement for documentary proof of citizenship to register. So
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: you'd have to go and get a birth certificate, which
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: could take days or weeks depending on the jurisdiction you
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: were born in. You need a mandate for states to
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: purge voter roles using DHS databases controlled by people like
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: Corey Lewandowski or once were you tell me whether you
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: trust that a man who's bragging by the way that
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: he thought he was bulletproof because no matter what he did,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: he'd get a pardon from Trump. That should make you
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: feel good about DHS systems. And then there were strict
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: voter idea requirements for both in person and mail in voting.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: But there's a massive gap between the bill of the
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: House actually sent to the Senate and what Donald Trump
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: is actually demanding. Untrue social right. The President wants even
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: more this bill, which means they'd have to go back
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: to the House and pass this again. Good luck doing that.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: But he you know, he told Senate Republicans not signing anything,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: effectively threatening a shutdown unless they add what he calls
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: his non negotiables, total ban on mail in ballots except
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: for the military. And get this, he wants to attach
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: writers banning transgender women from sports and ending gender affirming
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: care for minors, all in this Save Act. So he
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: took a focused, albeit controversial election bill and turned it
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: into a Christmas tree of culture war grievances. He's not
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: asking for just a change of the rules. He's asking
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: for total transformation of the American voting experience, and he's
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: doing it through ex executive pressure that even some of
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: his own party in the Senate, namely John Thune, the
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Senate Republican leader, are looking with the hey, buddy, do
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: you have a plan to get to sixty votes, whether
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: it's HR one or the Save Act. We are stuck
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: in this cycle of partisan electioneering. And here's the Here's
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: important because we've had this game gamesmanship on elections before
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: that were used to deny black people the opportunity to
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: vote in the late nineteenth century, in most of the
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: twentieth century, and there was and we know, when one
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: party changes the rules, it is not there to benefit everybody.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: It is there benefit only that one party. And there
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: had been kind of an unspoken rule in the American
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: democracy that you didn't change the rules of the game
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: unless you had members of both teams agreeing to the
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: rules changes. Democrats didn't bother to find Republicans or find
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: a way to find broader appealing parts of their parts
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: of the bill are very popular, just like parts of
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: the Save bill for Republicans are very popular. But they're parts.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: And here's the reality that the Republicans jammed this through.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: It's a political nightmare for them and actually I think
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: will only serve as a get out the vote mechanism
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: for the left and the less actually going to do
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: everything they're going to have, you know, you'll see people
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: on tic tac. I'm showing my age. You'll see people
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: on TikTok, you know, doing little songs and dances and
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: how do you find your birth certificate? How do you
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: request a copy of it? And this is what you do,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: and YadA, YadA YadA. Trust me, they'll figure it out
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: pretty quickly and it will serve as an automatic motivator.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, the likelihood that this blows up in their
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: face if they actually do this is just I mean,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, my God, to get rid of the filibuster
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: to do this, and it would you know, it's like
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: it's like, it's like Trump and his absurd demand for
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: partisan redistricting. Careful what you ask for. You might get
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: it and it may end up blowing up in your face.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Take the state of Virginia they're now going to who
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: had them having a ten to one delegation on their
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: bingo card a year ago? The answer is no one.
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: Welcome to karma it So you know what, So now
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: we ought to get to the uncomfortable part. And there
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: are parts of both people's agendas that are both popular,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: in parts that are not at all okay. There is
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: a pretty big disconnect between Washington and the rest of
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: the country on some of these bills. Because if you
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: listen to the debate on the House floor, you'd think
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: the Save America Act was the most polarizing piece of
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: legislation since the Affordable Care Act. But if you actually
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: look at the polling from this year Pew Gallop, even Maris,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: you're going to see something different. The voter ID concept
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: is not controversial now. Most people are assuming it means
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: the same, you know, same thing you do at the airport.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: You know, you just show your driver's license, that you
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: should show your driver's license, your government issued photo ID
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: right before you go vote. That has eighty three to
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent support. That's not a Republican number, that's
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: a consensus number. And there's even support for proof of
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: citizenship for first time registrants that clocks in it over
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: eighty percent support. All right, eighty percent. That's a big deal.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Now again, first time registrants, that is not what this is.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: So this is where you see a lot of partisan
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: commentators claim this is enormously popular. The Save Act is
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: enormously The Save Act is not enormously popular. One piece
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: of the Save Act is enormously popular. Right, this is
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: friction versus the function functionality. So, and this is where
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: we are having a debate over how much friction there
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: should there be in the issue of voting. And right now,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Republicans believe it should be harder to vote, and Democrats
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: believe it should be easier to vote. Right and the
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: Save Act moves friction to the front end, and it
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: says you don't get in the door to vote until
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: you prove who you are with a birth certificate or
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: a passport. And guess what, roughly twenty one million Americans,
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: most of them elderly, are the rural poor. Don't have
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: those papers in our drawer ready to go. Then the
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Democrats with HR one wanted to get rid of all friction.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: It wanted automatic voter registration, basically saying the government should
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: do the work for you. So the Democrats want to
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: make the funnel as wide as possible to ensure no
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: one is left out. The Republicans want to filter as
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: fine as possible to ensure no one is in who
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: shouldn't be. Now, both sides claiming they are protecting the
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: sanctity of the vote and the spirit of democracy, but
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: both sides are actually trying to engineer the electorate to
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: their own advantage. Right and the other parts of the
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: Save Act are not popular. By demanding a total ban
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: on mail in balance and attaching culture war writers to
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: the bill, Trump is taking a simple policy like voter
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: idea at the polls, that most Americans actually agree with,
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: and wrapping in in a package that half the country
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: finds tocks. And he's doing exactly what the Democrats did
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: with HR One. They took some popular ideas like ethics
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: reform and ending jerrymandering, and they stuffed him in a
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: seven hundred page bill that included federal funding for campaigns.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Total non starter for the right. But this is a
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: classic Washington playbook. You take one popular idea, you poison
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: it with partisan must haves, and then you blame the
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: other side when it fails. It's a win win for
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: the consultant community, it's a win win for your social
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: media fundraising, but it's a lose lose for voter trust.
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: And it brings us back to the larger point. You
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: cannot save an election system by yourself. If the Save
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: Act passes the Senate, by nuking the filibuster and getting
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: fifty one Republican votes, half the country will view the
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six midterms is rigged before single ballot is cast,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: just as Republicans viewed HR one as a democratic coup
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. Stability in a democracy does not
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: come from a fifty one percent majority. And I know
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: right now everybody's assumption is, well, Trump is proving you
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: can take a forty six percent majority and jamm through
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: if you know how to use power or abuse power.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: But this stuff is not going to stick. There's a
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: reason he can't couldn't get reelected once and he's yet
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: to have a successful midterm. Okay, Stability in a democracy
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: comes from consent, And when you change the rules of
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: the game on a partisan basis, you aren't fixing the pipes.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: You're poisoning the well. And in twenty twenty six, the
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: well is already running pretty dry. So let's get out
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: of the theoretical and into the real world. Proponents of
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: the Save Act say this is about one thing, ensuring
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: that only citizens vote, and they point to the eighty
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: percent of Americans who say, yeah, that sounds reasonable. Only
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: citizens should vote, By the way, it's already the law
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: of the lay it. But if we look at the
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: states that have already tried a version of this bill,
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: we're going to see a very different picture. Let me
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: tell you the story of Arizona. For years, Arizona was
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: the only state in the Union that required documentary proof
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: of citizenship to register for state elections. And what did
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: we find out? By the end of twenty twenty four
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: there were nearly thirty four thousand federal only voters in Arizona.
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: These are people who could not produce a birth certificate
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: or a passport, so they were legally barred from voting
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: for governor or state house. But thanks to the Supreme
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: Court carve out, they could still vote for president and Congress.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: Thirty four thousand people. That's more than the average margin
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: of victory in swing state Arizona these days. Right, These
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: weren't illegals, by the way, They were citizens who just
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: didn't have their papers in a shoe box. And here's
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: the kicker. Georgia, another swing state, conducted its own Remember
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: this is a Republican controlled state, Georgia that its own
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: massive citizenship audit in twenty twenty four, cross referencing their
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: roles with every database they can find. How many non
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: citizens did they find? On a voter roll of millions
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: of people in the state of Georgia, not in a
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: small state, mind you, they found twenty two zero, not
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: twenty thousand. Twenty out of those nine had actually voted
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: over the span of seven years nine So eleven of
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: the people they found never even voted. So the question
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: for the Save Act isn't this bogus non citizen voting
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: business that Trump claims. By the way, it's already a
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: felony to vote if you're not a citizen. The question
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: is is it worth adding a paperwork wall for twenty
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: one million eligible Americans to catch nine people in the
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: state of Georgia. In the policy world, that would be
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: called a disproportionate response. In politics, we call it a
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: barrier to entry. But the Save America Act that passed
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: the House goes even further than what the state of
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: Arizona did. It isn't just one and done check if
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: you move or if you change your name, say because
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: you got married. The Save Act treats you like a
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: brand new applicant to vote, so you have to produce
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: a whole round of new documentation all over again, not
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: just a birth certificate but a marriage license. Think about
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: that there are seventy million married people in this country
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: who have a different last name than the one on
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: their birth certificate. Under the strictest reading of this House bill,
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: if you don't have a passport, you might need to
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: produce a birth certificate plus a marriage license just to
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: update your address. Now, I don't want to go and
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: do a huge amount of deep tales on my personal life,
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: but my wife went through this where her passport didn't
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: match your driver's license after we got married, and they
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: wouldn't let her on a plane. This is after nine
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: to eleven. We got married first, we got married just
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: after nine eleven, less than a year after nine eleven,
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: so there was you know, we were and they said
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: yet to produce a marriage certificate, which needed to know
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: the exact date. Well, the marriage certificate that Nevada gave
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: us did not have the exact date of when we
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: got married, just the month in the year. And they said, no, no, no,
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: you need a date. So we put we just wrote
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: the date in. We're look, we don't know what else
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: to do. It was a complicated mess. We missed a
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: couple of flights because of it. We eventually got it
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: worked out. This is a this is this you know,
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: we've already you know, we already make it harder for
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: women in this country and a lot of things due
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: to you know, catching up on rules where we had
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: sort of gender imbalance, whether it's for finances and all
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: sorts of things. You know, wasn't that long ago then
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: a married woman couldn't get a credit card without her
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: husband's permission. So seventy million married people with a different
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: last name. So in order to vote, if you just
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: happen to move because your job transferred, you would have
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: to produce a perth certificate plus the marriage license just
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: to update your address. So we've moved from voter ID. Okay,
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: which is what all of these misleading right wing commentators
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: shoved down your throat and their feet. They are knowingly
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: lying to you. And there's some really people that I
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: used to respect who are just bullshitting all the way
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: on this stuff. This is not about voter ID anymore.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: It's a long way away from voter ID. This is
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: an entire elaborate piece of legislation just to make suthe
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's ego because he didn't win the popular vote
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, which he claimed is because undocumented immigrants
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: voted in mass numbers against him, and he claims that
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: mail in balloting is the reason why he lost in
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty, not the fact that maybe he just wasn't
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: popular enough to win the popular vote in twenty sixteen,
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: and maybe it's because people thought he was sucked was
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: president during COVID and they wanted to change in leadership.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: And they've just they literally are writing a bill in
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: order to make his bullshit seem like it's a real
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: grievance that should be fixed. So we've moved from voter
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: ID which most people support, to voter paperwork, which most
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: people will find exhausting. Do we really want to have
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: the dmv afication of the most sacred right we have?
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you though, Donald Trump terrible poker player, right.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: His recent pivot here is very revealing. By adding his
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: demand for a ban on universal mail in voting and
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: cultural world writers to the bill, he signaled that he
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: actually doesn't want to see this bill pass. He simply
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: wants to fight, just like HR one was never designed
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: to pass. They just wanted to fight to say, Hey,
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: those guys don't believe in democracy. They don't believe in
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: election integrity, and what Trump wants to be able to
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: say to his base is I tried to secure the elections,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: but the Democrats and the Senate Rhinos blocked me. So
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: using a legitimate policy debate about citizenship verification as a
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: trojan horse for a total overhaul of the voting calendar
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: just to make his bullshit about what happened in twenty
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: sixteen and twenty twenty seem like it was legitimate. So
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: when you take a common sense idea like citizen should
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: vote and you turn it into a twenty one million
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: person hurdle, you're not protecting the system. You're testing the
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: breaking point. You don't want the democracy to succeed, You
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: don't want more voters to the polls. If you do
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: it without a single vote from the other side, you're
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: telling half the country the only way to win is
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: to change the rules so the other side can play.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: And Donald Trump actually said the quiet power out loud.
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: He said, if we get this save bill pass the
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: way I want it, Democrats won't win an election for
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: fifty years. I don't happen to think that's true. But
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: the fact that he said it only poisoned the well
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: even more and made it an even to me, an
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: easier decision not to support that bill. But here are
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: some fun facts here about the access gap. This is
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: just projections. In twenty twenty six, among total registered voters,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: fifty two percent do not have an unexpired passport. Among
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: voters under the age of thirty, fifteen percent lacked easy
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: access to a birth certificate. Among married women, thirty five
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: percent have name match issues between their birth certificates and
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: their ideas. And among low income voters, a disproportionate lack
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: the one hundred dollars for a new passport and certified records.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: But let me conclude with the most uncomfortable truth of all,
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: one that usually makes some of my poly sized students,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: if they haven't realized this yet, it can make their
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: head spin. If you scour the US Constitution from the
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: preamble to the last Amendment, you will not find the
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: phrase that says, quote every citizen has an affirmative right
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: to vote, because it's not there. What we have is
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: a list of things you cannot do to stop someone
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: from voting. You can't stop them because of their race.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: That's the fifteenth Amendment, their sex, that's the nineteenth amendment.
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: Their failure to pay a poll tax, that's the twenty
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: fourth Amendment, or because they're over eighteen, that's the twenty
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: sixth Amendment. But as the Supreme Court famously reminded us
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: in Bush v. Gore, the individual citizen has no federal
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: constitutional right to vote for electors for the president of
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: the United States. Maybe that is something we ought to
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: change because the federal document, the US Constitution, is silent
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: on this issue. There are state constitutions actually aren't. Nearly
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: every single state constitution Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona explicitly guarantees that
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: quote election shall be free and equal, or that every
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: citizen shall be entitled to vote. And this is where
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: the Save America Act hits a massive legal wall. If
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: it's somehow magically passed. By mandating federal show us your
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: paper requirements, Congress is essentially trying to override state level
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: constitutional guarantees. Remember, the Constitution says it is up to
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: the states to implement voting processes. So if a state
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: constitution says a resident is entitled to vote and the
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: federal government says not without a passport, you're not. We're
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: looking at a pretty interesting tenth Amendment showdown that would
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: make the nineteen sixties look like a warm up act.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: We actually already got a preview this when Kansas tried
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: to version the Save Act. The courts eventually struck it down,
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: partly because it created a dual class system of citizens,
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: just like we have in Arizona. Right you have state
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: voters and federal voters. You can't have federal voters and
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: state voters living in the same house but using different rules.
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: It's a recipe for administration. So here's the bottom line.
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: When Democrats try to pass HR one, they were trying
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: to use federal power to force states to make voting easier,
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: and now with the Save Act, Republicans are trying to
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: use federal power to force states to make voter registration harder.
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: Both sides trying to build a national election system on
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: a constitutional foundation that is frankly too thinner than it
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: should be. So if you want to fundamentally change how
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: Americans vote, you can't do it through a fifty one
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: vote yatcha bill or a last minute writer on a
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: spending package. You need a consensus that transcends the next
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: election cycle. Because right now we're not saving the vote.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: We're just turning the rules of democracy to a partisan weapon.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: And when the rules become the weapon, the only thing
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: that ends up dead is the public's trust in the outcome.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: So look, I hope I created a little bit of
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: clarity of what this bill actually is, what the impact
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: would be. I know I've been pretty dismissive. I am
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: a hugely cynical about both of these bills because they
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: were not designed to pass right. This is not about
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: being a moderate a centrist. It is about me being
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: an incrementalist, which means if you were trying to change
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: the rules for three hundred and fifty million Americans, you
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: better do it with massive consensus, not partisan demagoghriy on this.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: So with that, we'll take a break when we come back.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: My extraordinary conversation with feeling him having good life insurance
• 48:35
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• 48:39
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• 48:42
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• 48:45
  Speaker 1: single mother, now widow, myself sixteen trying to figure out
• 48:49
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• 48:51
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• 48:54
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• 48:57
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• 49:00
  Speaker 1: go to college. Little did he know how important that
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• 50:10
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• 50:17
  Speaker 1: Well joining me now. Is one of arguably the world's
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: most foremost experts on all things Russia, at least and
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: has played that role for currently at a senior fellow
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: at the Brookings Institute, but served on the National Security
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: Council the specialization on Russia in the first Trump administration
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: at is Fiona Hill. And it's good to see you.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: It's been a while, see you too. Not much is
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: going on in the world, and and and and what's happening.
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: But in all seriess, let's start with sort of Russia's
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: role with Iran. And let me start with before we
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: get into sort of the current sort of what are
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: they doing and all this stuff, how would you describe
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: that alliance and make a comparison of that alliance to
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: an alliance that the US has with a country that
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: what's the most similar alliance that Russian and Iran have
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: that you would say the United States mirrors.
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: It's a very loose alliance. Let's put it that way. So,
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: you know, the United States has had so many formal
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: alliances with countries, you know that it's hard to do,
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: you know, kind of a really neat comparison because it's
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: not a formal alliance between Russia and Iran, and there's
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: all kinds of expressions of friendship and partnership, but it
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: really doesn't kind of amount to, you know, very much
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: beyond the declarative.
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: So are they just vendors for each other? You know,
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: they just sell stuff to each other?
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's I mean, one might quip that
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: the way that you know, Trump has been treating some
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: of the traditional US allies that might actually become more comparable,
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: you know, very critical about them, not seeing you know,
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: kind of a sense of obligaon they're expecting them, you know,
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: to do things for him, you know, VISI VI this war.
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: In fact, I mean, the UK comes you know obviously
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: to mind. But you know, Russia and Iran you have
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: a very complex and deeply historical relationship, I mean going
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: back to the Persian and Russian empires, and you know
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: they've they've clashed historically at many times. They have you know,
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: territories that they've fought over. You know, including in the
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: Caucasus regions they had, you know, their empires had you know,
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: peoples that they've divided, you know, between them, and Russia
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: had come to rely in Iran in the period since
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: nineteen seventy nine, established into the theocracy as a kind
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: of stabilizing force, particularly in the Muslim world, because Russia
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: has had its most problems with its own sunny Muslim population.
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: It has a sheer population, it's very small and mostly
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: Azardi ethnic azardies who have caused a you know, big
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: bulk of the non Persian you know, ethnic groups inside
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: of Iran itself, and of course we have the independent
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: state of Azerbijan. But you know, there wasn't really you know,
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: any way in which you know, Russia saw Iran as
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: a particular threat within its territory. Now in the modern
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: times and much more is a kind of a like
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: minded an enemy of my enemy as my.
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: Friend really more than anything, yeah, but.
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: A bit more than that. I mean, when you look
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: at trade, it's not surprising to find that, you know,
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: the trade is in the same kind of dimensions that
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: you know, trade with Iran is with lots of other countries.
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: Carpets and pistachios and you know, all kinds of you know,
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: food stuffs. Russia, you know, shares the Caspian you know
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: sea and you know that base and with Iran as well,
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: but you know, obviously has its own oil and gas.
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: But it was really that kind of role that Iran
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: plays as far as Russia was concerted a sort of
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: predictable even even if you know, complex neighbor that could
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: help it sort of settle issues. And then more recently
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: with the war in Ukraine, that shifted quite dramatically, with
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: Russia tapping into Iran's development of the Shihi drones, which
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: of course we're now seeing you know, on full display
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: not just in Ukraine, but now being used across the Gulf,
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: and Iran provided Russia with those drones during the war
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: Ukraine effectively became a partner with Russia in the war
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: against Ukraine, helped them build a factory, and.
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: You know kind of you that it'd It's been a
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: bit of a head scratcher to me that with Trump's
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: obsession with Iran, that he didn't view what they were
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: doing with Russia more negatively. On Russia, Yeah, it is.
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: A bit of head scratcher. Isn't it. But I mean
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: I think that that shows that, you know, Trump tends
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: to think of things in a you know, pretty bilateral fashion.
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: He thinks of his relationship with Russia as just that
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: that it almost exists in a vacuum when with Putin,
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: and he thinks about it as if it doesn't interact
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: with everything else. And I think that that's part of
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: the problem that we're now seeing in the Middle East.
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: It hasn't been you know, full thinking about what the
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: second and third order consequences might be and how you know,
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: kind of basicly firing on on Iran might have all
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: of these knock on effects on all of these other relationships.
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: You can't just separate them all out. And many people
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: have been trying to make that point, myself included for
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: years that you know, the war in Ukraine had become
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: a global conflict, I mean not just another war in Europe,
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: you know, the third in a century, a major land war,
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: but because it brought in Iran and China and North
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: Korea in on support of Russia, because they all saw
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: it as a proxy war with the United States and Iran,
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: most notably.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: If you're Iran, are you disappointed in what Russia and
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: China have done as allies or not.
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: Yes, I think you are disappointed, But at the same
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: time it might be what you expect because you know,
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: you yourself are not exactly the best of our lives for
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: other countries either. I mean, these are all very transactional.
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: I mean Iran has a very particular war view, so
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: the Russia, to China, so North Korea. A lot of
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: their decisions are based on, you know, how things affect
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: their interests. I mean they're very nakedly transactional. I mean
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: this is hardly in the sort of Chinese and you know,
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: Iranian in a sense, their relationshiply just rush from melding
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: of the minds. I mean, one is the theocracy wants
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: still has a communist party. I mean, yes, these are
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: all again ancient empires who kind of see it as
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: their own right, you know, kind of a divine right
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: in many respects, certainly from Iran, to basically drive their
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: own civilizational perspective. I mean, around sees itself as a civilization,
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: not just as a country, which I mean I think
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: perhaps you know, Trump and the people around him seem
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: to have forgotten and you know, they all feel that
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: they have, you know, the right to exert themselves, the
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: right to nuclear weapons, you know, the right to have
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: their own interests and to conduct their own foreign policy
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: without regard to the United States. And you know they
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: bind together or bound together and band together. I've kind
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: of used the wrong kind of term there. They're banded
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: together without being bound together as what I was trying
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: to say. You know, when it comes to their own
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: interests being affected in some way and there where there's
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: a sort of shared concern about interests that overlap, but
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: it's not that they're bound to each other in terms
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: of any obligations in any ways. So I don't think,
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: you know, the Eroons were really expecting the Russians to
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: come in on their side here.
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: Well, it's just interesting that we've when you look at
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: whether it's Syria, whether it's Venezuela, whether it's Iran, throw
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: maybe Cuba, there's a lot of these sort of I
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: don't know what you call them, Russian friends, you know,
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: allies might be too strong of a word, but certainly
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: places where in every one of these countries also had
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: good relationships with China. China has chosen not to really
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: help any of these folks Russia has a little bit.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess if I were in their shoes,
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: I would let the US punch themselves out. I would
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: do what was an old you know, what was called
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: during the days of boxing ropadope, you know, the Muhammad Ali.
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: Go ahead and put yourself out, George Forman, and then
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: you'll get tired and I will get everything I want
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: at a bargain or when you're tired and easier to
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: deal with. Is that what you think China's up to
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: in particular for them not really helping any of these
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: countries that we've bullied around.
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that is the case. I mean, I've
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: got a lot of colleagues here at the Brookings Institution
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: who you know, obviously work very closely on China. And
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: you know, one colleague had the opportunity the medic Security Conference,
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: you know, to put to a pretty senior Chinese you know,
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: representative about the case of Ukraine. And I've got other
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: colleagues who have done the same and saying, look, you
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: know this obviously is detrimental to you. You had no
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: beef with Ukraine. You know, why is it, you know,
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: of any benefit when you had your own desires to
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: invest in Ukraine over the long term and agricultural and
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: things to see it ruined. You know, why do you
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: want Russia to win in Ukraine and the O Visually,
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: the Chinese interlocer has said, well, if we wanted them
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: to win, they would have won, which obviously hasn't happened.
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: That interesting. What does that mean?
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean what it means is, look, we're
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: really you know, not doing you know, kind of a
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: great deal you know here to help them, although that's
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: actually not really true because they're giving you know, a
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: lot of support in various ways, although they're charging a
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: high premium, which is the kind of thing Russia does too.
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: They don't do you any favors without a cost. You know,
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: China is helping Russia to obtain all kinds of goods
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: and those kinds of you know, high technology that they
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: actually need to keep the warrior going, but they're charging
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: them a premium. They're not making it easy for them.
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: They're not saying how quick you know, I have these,
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: But you know, they're not really exerting themselves to help
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: them in any way. And you're just going to also
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: refer to that. That's really kind of what Russia is
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: doing with Iran. They have been sending them technology and
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: response to the fact that they got the Shahi drones
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: and they got the kind of modular manufacturing patterns and
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: you know, helped the Uranians help them set up a
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: factory to produce their own They've you know, we've had
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: reports that they've given some kind of intelligence, although we
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: don't know exactly you know, what that might be. And
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: Steve Whitcoff, you know, recently some all the Russians told
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: us we didn't so you know, let's not go down
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: that Poppa.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: Shouldn't take the Iranians witcough thought the Iranians were pulling
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: the wool over their eyes. But the Russians, he always
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: takes them at their work.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean, you see, this is you know,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: part of the issue we're dealing with. Everybody deals with
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: everything in silos and stove pipes, and you know, from
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: the point of view of you know, what they see here.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: But look, it's still fair to say, getting back to
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: the point that you're making here, that both Russia and
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: China are kind of watching to see how this all
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: plays out, and they think that probably you know, the
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: United States, will you know, do what most countries and
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: the United States has done before, get itself into a
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: hell of a mess in the Middle East, and that
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: they can just watch and you know, see what happens next.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, yes, you know, Russia has lost the footing
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: that it had previously in Syria. This is not great,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: you know, that kind of what's happened with Iotola Hamini
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: because you know Putin was you know, quite close. There's
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: one can be close to the Itolic but hey, it's
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: the Iola sun now, you know, and in fact, you
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: might have gotten even harder line, you know, kind of version,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: if that's even possible.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: Those that I would like to see a little proof
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: of life here and the sun we get to see
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: any proof.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: Of well exactly that is that is true, but I mean,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: but the Russians are kind of expecting that it might
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: go So the Russians in Chinese have been around a
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: long while, right, and they're kind of expecting that things
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: kind of might play out in a way that is
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: detrimental to the United States. You know, they've had their
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: own experiences, particularly the Russians in Afghanistan. You know, they
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: all kind of know what happens in these imperial wars,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: and that's exactly what's happening to Russia and Ukraine. Special
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: military operations turn into quagmites. That's exactly what's happened, you know,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: for Russia and you know the United States, they believe
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: because the politics, the domestic upheaval, all the things that
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: you know they watched are going on, you know, might
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: find itself in quite a predicament and then they might
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: be able to kind of sweep in and take advantage.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: So it's just like you said, it's the ropodomee. You know,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: just watch them exhaust themselves. Putin doesn't box, but he
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: did play judo, and you know that would be also.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: You work for your opponent over multiple tournaments to get
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: themselves into trouble, your top opponent, and then you know
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: you kind of just take advantage and literally use their
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: strength against them, you know, to get them to the mat.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: So I think, you know, for now they're thinking, okay,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: you know this.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: Well, I mean I'm sting. I mean that's what it looks.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: You know, if I'm the Russians, your darn right, I'm
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: going to help the Iranians. Because anything that bogs down
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: the US makes Ukraine's life harder.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: Yea absolutely right spot on. You know, So when the
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: United States was thinking about what was happening or what
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: they wanted to do in Iran, were they also think
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: about how this was all interconnected. You know, we've had
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: a debate about whether Trump had the right to you know,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: it hasn't redeclared. What has he I mean to kind
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: of launch this assault on Iran, you know, without all
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: of the you know, other constitutional requirements that everybody's thinking about.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: But we haven't been asking what did they do in
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: terms of deliberating or the first, second, third, and fourth
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: order consequences and how everything was intertwined because so many
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: times people from the administration have said that they prefer
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: to disentangle these you know, thorny knots of problems and
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: deal with one issue at a time. But unfortunately all
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: of these things are all ruveled together in Ukraine.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: I know, and he you know, this comes back to
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: the principle he hates multilateralism, right. I don't know if
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: he hates it because he can't understand it, or he
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: just life is simpler for him if every relationship is binary,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: everything is transactional, whether it's in the personal or in
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: the professional or whatever it is. But he does. He
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: he almost hates to think about the interconnectivity of things.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: You've spent some time with him, I mean, is that
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: the impression you got of him in the first term.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, And look in the second term. You know many
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: of the people around him have made that very explicit
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: playing it out, just as you said that it's almost
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: as if we all these issues exist in the vacuum.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: Well they don't. And you know when you think about
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: Iran and kind of intelligence that the United States would have,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: you know, collected in the past and Iran and we
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: still have some you know, great.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: Do you think it's all derivative of Israel's intel?
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: Well, I think some of it would have come from
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: our own, But all of that is also derivative, right,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: It's not just you know, from one thread. I mean,
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: the United States is part of what was the Five
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: Eyes if that still exists in terms of you know,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: realistic grouping. Yeah, well, I mean the question is, you know,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: as Canada was Canada consultant was the UK, you know, Australia,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: you know New Zealand. I mean they might have had,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: you know, a lot of information. Certainly the Golf States
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: would have done. But if you're only maybe asking the Saudis,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is obviously of existential import for the
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: Golf States, given you know their proximity and you know
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: all the interactions we see it now, I mean, all
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: the damage that's been done of them, just like Ukraine
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: was of existential input for Europeans, and Trump was pretty
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: lax at basically consulting, you know, with them as well.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: So this is just part of, you know, a pattern
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: where there's this sort of feeling by Trump and the
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: people around him that you know, we have all the power,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: we have all the intellectual capacity that we need, we
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: have all the information that we need. We don't have
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: to consult with anyone else, and we don't have to,
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: you know, basically take a full spectrum, comprehensive view of
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: something before we act. We can just figure it out
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: as we go along.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: Were you still in the administration when he made the
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: decision to get solemnoney.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: No, I was not. No, I'd left, okay, And I
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: think you know that would probably have emboldened him though along.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: That That's what I'm wondering, right along with.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: What happened with my Duro, because the blowback that people
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: predicting never came right from.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: Hiss a lot of people. Maybe maybe this time it
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: wasn't you telling him. It might have been another expert
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: letting him know, Okay, if you do this, here are
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: the potential fallouts, you know, and then none of it happens. Right.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: He touches the hot stove and he doesn't burn his hand.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: That's right, Yeah, Solomony. And he touches it again with Maduro,
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: And frankly, he did it again in July. Last July
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: with the bunker buster bombs. Oh well that didn't set
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: off a wide ranging yeah, and.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: The recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: That didn't say they're not Yeah.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: All of these because I remember all of this, people
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: would say, well, there'll be problems, and you know, that's
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: our job. We're always supposed to be prepared to be
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: the world's worst pessimists.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: Right right, But that's your job in the National Security Council.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: You know.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: I'm a nice mam at home. You know, Hey, look
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: at that. You know this could be all in my office,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: you know, or something like this. I'm always thinking about
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: the worst that you know, the ceiling could fall, you know,
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: and then the consequence this will be the last you know.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: And so for someone like Trump is like, okay, all
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: of these people, in these so called smart people, these
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: experts who say they're experts, told me this would happen,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: and it didn't. Well, the fact is that, you know,
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: those are some of the contingencies you've got to bear
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: in mind, because you know, one could say from the
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: Abrahama courts right that you know, there wasn't the reaction
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: from the policyeions that they thought they would be right
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: away to all of the kind of decisions about Jerusalem,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: or you know, the cords between Israel and you know
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: other Gold States, and then there was Octaber seventh. You know,
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: so one might be able to posit that that was
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: you know, one of those consequences, but you know, the
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: direct line of causality wasn't as clear. And so I
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: mean that's the kind of same thing that we know
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: we're dealing with here. You know that if the immediate
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: impact isn't felt, you know, in some cases there's an
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: immediate cause and effect, I knows, it might take some
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: time to play out. I mean, look, I think in
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: many respects we're all dealing with a post nine to
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: eleven Osma bin Laden, you know, attack world because it's
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: all those kind of kno going to affect some decisions
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: that were made in that context to go into Afghanistan
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: then to go into a rack against the back of that,
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: even though you know there wasn't any direct linkage, but
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: it's just it's shaped a whole frame for the way
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: that we thought about things, and you know that's what's
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: happening here as well.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: Do you buy that NBS was one of the folks
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: advocating for these for this joint strike with the Israelis
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: that you know, there's that big Washingt Post story that
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: it wasn't just Israel that was talking Trump into this,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: that it was Saudi Arabia. And I say that because
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia has also been the least helpful in the
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: current situation too. Right, they're in this weird spot, it
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: seems like, and in the same spot they've always tried
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: to fashion. Right, they're the protector of these important monuments
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: and these important touchdowes of the of the of the
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: Muslim religion, and so they they haven't they haven't fought
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: back per se. But do you buy that did he
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: push that he helped convince Trump.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to think. I mean, maybe he
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: didn't dissuade him. Maybe that could be the point. So,
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know enough about the saucing for
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: that story. It wasn't massively picked up in other public cations.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: It wasn't and there wasn't any match. And now you
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: get the sense that the Saudi's are given off a Hey,
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: this is not what we had in mind. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: they're not happy now for sure.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: So think about this in another context, you know, which
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: I know more about, which is the meeting between Putin
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: and She and Beijing literally on the eve of Putin's decision,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: you know, to go in full on invasion into Ukraine.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: You know, Putin and She basically declare this limitless partnership,
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: and you know, they have all these wonderful press conference meetings.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: The next thing, it looks like she has then given
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: the green light or even encouragement to put them to
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: go into a special Molta operation. The Chinese have been
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: constantly ever since going No. Actually, you know, we kind
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: of thought something different was happening. You know, we didn't
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: really do that, which I think you know.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: About the Chinese that they didn't see that. How did
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: they not see that coming? It seemed like we saw
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: it coming.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: Well. I think that they well exactly, which is one
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: of the reasons. I mean, so many people didn't expect
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: that Putin would do it because they could see disaster
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: brewing as a result. But the Chinese might have been
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: more persuaded, or she might have been more persuaded that
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: special military operation would be just that the kind of
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: thing that they might launch in for example, or you know,
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: or they've seen the Soviet Union, do you know in
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: the past in Hungary or what was then Czechoslovakia. I mean,
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: those were short, sharp, bloody yes interventions, you know, to
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: whip the Hungarians and the Czechoslovaks in fifty six and
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: sixty eight into shape. And I'm sure that that's what
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: Putin thought he was doing, But instead he unleashed what
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: has become, you know, the largest land war in Europe
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: since World War Two, with more casualties to Russia than
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: the Soviet Union had in the Afghanistan was twenty times
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: the casualtybrate And this is Russia, which is a portion
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: a smaller portion of what the Soviet Union was is
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: catastrophic in so many respects. But they didn't anticipate that,
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: you know, and I see and I think of that
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: gets into you know, did the Saudis think? And again
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: I can't speak to it because you know, this was
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: literally just you know, another of these you know, quick blows,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: you know, and they wouldn't be pummeling, you know, Tehran,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: you know, in the same way that you know we've
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: seen happening elsewhere in the Middle East. I mean, this
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: is you know, pretty astounding. Well it look, I mean
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: from that perspective as well as you said, you know,
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: because I mean there are the religious sites so important
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: to his Lam, but the iol homony Homony was hormony
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: before him, a major religious leader of another sect of
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: his Lam. So you know, this is also pretty serious
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: from their perspective.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: You know. Look, you as well as anybody can know
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: working for Donald Trump. So I'm not going to sit
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: here and sell sell it anymore. I think he's a
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: very hard you know, I vacillate. I think he's actually
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: very easy to read. I always joke I'd love to
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: play poker with him, because he doesn't really he sort
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: of he wears everything on his sleeve. He tells you
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: everything he's thinking, the.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: Saying, look at this like, I'll grab my cars.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: A I know, I know you might as well just
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: hold his cards the other way. I think I wonder
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: if you concur with this. I know he's going to
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: want to get out of this. I just you know,
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: he knows it. It's like, however it's gone. It's not
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: the way he knows. It's bad politics. You just you
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: can reverse course on tariffs, you can't unbomb Tehran. And so,
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: knowing he wants to get out, how would you help
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: him get out of this jam he's in. What would
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: that look like? Given what he's in the middle of
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: right now, it'd.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: Be very hard to help him, because you know he's
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: thrown in his lot. Also with Israel in this regard,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: the obviously has she has got some pretty clear objectives.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: They want regime change. They make it crystal clear. The
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: Prime Minister's X feed is all about this.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and that makes not making it very clear that
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: they want to make sure that Iran is not a
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: threat right which.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: And under after October seventh, sort of like us after
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: nine to eleven, We're not going to let this al
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: Qaeda wherever they go we're chasing them down. You know,
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: we I can't sit here and say we wouldn't behave
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: the exact same way because oh, by the way, we did.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and look, we've seen what happened in Gaza. I
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: mean they reduced the players to rubble to make sure
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: that they've you know, eliminated the threat. And you know
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: we're trending, you know, in a direction, in a run
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: where we're going to have a Jesus yeah, I mean exactly.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: So we're seeing here very clear what ams by Israel
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: that they're not going to be deterred. And I mean
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: because it's existential to their security and you know Iran, Yes,
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, Trump can make a case, and we can
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: all make the case, and he keeps making it all
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: the time, lots and lots of different russales. Why you know,
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: going after I run, at least, going after the itoler
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: and after the leadership, you know, made sense. You know,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: we can, we can take it at first value and
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: forty seven years of a probably festering situation. But you know,
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: beyond getting rid of the regime, neutralizing completely the nuclear
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: UH program, what is the rest of our reign? I mean,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: because again Trump has already said, and this this was
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: his whey to try to get out of it. He
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: wanted to do what you did in Venezuela. Well, well
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: that's ridiculous. You know one thing again, Venezuela is not
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: a millennium multi millennia or civilization.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: Not ready to call Venezuela a success. We grew up
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: in Miami. I know that community. Well, and if that,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: if Venezuela is not a democracy, sometimes soon they're all
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: going to turn on him on this.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: And that's the problem in Iran. I mean, you know,
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: we've basically being He said at the very beginning that
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: one of the multiple reasons for intervention was to actually
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: go to the Iranian people, you know, across the board,
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: the opportunity to choose their own leadership and not you know,
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: basically be you know, killed en mass By, you know,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: a regime that has become perceived widely as a legitimate.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: But I do there's not a pathway to that. So,
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: I mean one of the words that you'll probably get
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: out of is just declared. He's done in terms.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: Of well declare we know, well, no matter what he
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: declares victory right like, oh, this was a massive success.
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: You're like, but I.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: Well, what he has to do, if you're going to
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: find a pathway is basically to be consulting with all
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: of the countries around that have a vested interest in
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: the immediate vicinity. You know, that includes you know, countries
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: like Pakistan and India. It's Turkey, you know, which has
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: a direct bond is actually a NATO member. You know,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: there should be a consultation with NATO countries because you've
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: got Iranian populations in large numbers, and places like Germany,
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: also in the United Kingdom. I mean, this is going
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: to have knock on effects. It's not just you know
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: what's happening in Oman or in Saudi Arabia or Ue,
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: you know, et cetera. I mean we've also got Yemen.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: You know, this is these are kind of a prophecy.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: Is he's going to have to have a regional approach
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: to this and exit some leadership. But I don't think
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: that that's what's going to happen. I mean, he's got
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: himself into a real jam here. I mean of the
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: kind of you know level that the United States got
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: itself to in both Afghanistan and Iraq with a lot
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: more consultation. I mean In fact, in the case of
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: Iraq in two thousand and three, the UK did a
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: much better job of making the case, you know, with
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: Dodger DOSSI well and the intervention, and there was there
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: was a NATO you know, backed coalition in both you know,
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: Iraq and in Afghanistan, and at least it's sort of
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: a plan. I mean, look, we know we're no good
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: at nation building, that's for obvious, but there's not an
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: exit plan here. And because what happened in Afghanistan when
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: was a negotiating exit plan was pretty disastrous.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: Do you and do you think the gutting of the
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: National Security Council has any impact on this bad decision
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: making He's done or is this It wouldn't have mattered
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: whether there was a fully staffed NSCA He's still probably you.
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: Know, yeah, I mean in that regard, that regard, I
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: don't think it would really have mattered. I mean, there
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: was a fully stuffed and see what could argue there's
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: still a fully stuffed and a see if you look
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: at the history of the NSC, which is.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: You know, super large.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, depending on you know, kind of what what different
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: presidents wanted. It's just it's his it's his antagonism towards
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: any kind of consultation. I'm apart from with who he
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: sees his peers. Look, this is an overall problem of
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: where we are as the United States right now in
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: many other countries as well, because we've created in many
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: spects of vertical you know, of power, just like the
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: Russians harves Putin and then you know that's kind of
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: not many but not but everybody else in the consultative paramid. Here.
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: You know, we've got an apex predator, an apex president,
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: and that's what we've done in the United States. And
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: that is completely antithetical. So what the United States was
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: supposed to be about for the last two hundred and
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: fifty years. So the problem is on us. I mean,
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: actually we all have responsibility for this because you know,
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: somehow or other we've lost grip, you know, of of
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: our lives.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's look at Congress.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: Why but yeah, but Congress, you know, is is a
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: major problem. And you know, Congress has to remember that
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: they are actually supposed to be the representative body of
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: the United States. They are supposed to be their main
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: locus of decision making and power in the constitution. You know,
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: she has related to this, and they've just completely reneged
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: on our responsibility and so they've allowed you know, so
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: it's all of the checks and balances in the system
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: have been eroded. So of course, you know, I mean, look,
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: if Trump was a different person, he might made a
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: whole different set of decisions. But you know, but but
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: he isn't, right, So it was so obvious that this is,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: you know, what is going to happen irrespectively, whether they
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: had an NSC or you know, a kind of different
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: set of cos he's concerned everyone's stuff and nobody knows anything.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: So if if this is in theory, then look, it's
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: going to bog us down. There's no quick exit, right.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: I think I've equated it to quicksand right, there's just
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: the more he fights it, the more he may end
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: up getting sucked in because of all the all the
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: regional effects, all the economic impacts, et cetera. Is this
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: a huge break for Russia in the war with Ukraine?
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: Is this saying, Jake, Could the timing of this been
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: any better for them?
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: Maybe it already depends on, you know, kind of how
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: they handle it as well. I mean, the obvious issue
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: is about oil prices.
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: But right now that's good for the right, right high.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: But the rest is, you know where Russia is going
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: to get all of it, soilight from? I mean it
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: you know, is it where is it going to be
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: shipping the oil because it coind has to come out
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: of the Baltic you know, and you know the other
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: Europeans going to want to buy Russian oil in the
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: middle you know, of all of this, it's a kind
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: of a long way to China, you know from for
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: the Russian oil. I mean, they could ship it up
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: to the Arctic Ocean in theory, or they could rail
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: it out because you know they've got I mean, it's
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: it's gonna it's not that easy to be honest, because
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: you know, they've got the shipping problems that everybody else has.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: You know, if they can't go through the Eastern Mead
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: and the Sewer's Canal or you know, kind of off
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: all the kind of the shipping routes. Because i mean
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: we're talking a lot about you know, Russian you know,
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: rogue shipping, the shadow fleet and all the rest of it.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: They've got to be able to get that oil out.
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously the all that they're already producing goes
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: up in value, and the Russians love that, of course,
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: because you know, the peak of Putin's power has always
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: been when all prices have got towards this one hundred
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: and fifty dollars a barrel. And yes, that was really
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: affecting the revenues. The gas is more difficult for them
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: to sell as well. It's pipelined, you know, and you've
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: got gas coming through Ukraine and players like Hungary and
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: l and g you know, they're producing some in the
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: Russian Far East. You know, it's it's not as simple
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: as it looks. But yes, I mean, there is the
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: prospect there of a windfall, and it would all kind
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: of depend on, you know, how we're looking at you know,
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: oil trading, you know, and all the rest of it.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: But it does certainly deflect well and truly away from
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: you know, all the kind of efforts to try to
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: resolve what's happening in Ukraine, because of course where was
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: most of that to promacy taking place in the Middle
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: East A and you know, with NBS and nb Z
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: and all kinds of others.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: So does he want to end this war or not?
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: Who is that? Putin yeah, Trump, Yeah, Trump. I think
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: once when you know this war, get Trump because he
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: wants to and you know, let's have a normal relationship
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: with the restaurant and the only one you can't have
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: it until the absolutely and he's probably blown his Nobel
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: Peace Prize now as well, you know, for for this
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: year one but one would imagine. But the I mean
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: doesn't want to end this war unless it's on his terms.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: So that would mean, you know, the capitulation of Ukraine.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: He's made it very clear.
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: It's just never going to happen.
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, well it makes it unlikely. Now when put thinks,
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: you know, for exactly the way that we phrase this question,
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: that might have a windfall, might bring in more revenue,
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: I might be able to continue to keep paying contract
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: because I mean essentially, yeah, this will give him. I mean,
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: they'll hope some breathing, spare some time to recovery because
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: the economy was under was under pressure, and now that pressure,
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: you know, could be could be relieved.
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: I think every time we think that Ukrainian morale is
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: going to suffer, it doesn't. I mean it is. They've
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: been a tougher fighting force. I mean even now, and
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: it looks like you know, the the United States isn't
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: really helping the way they once were, and yet they
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: continue to persevere.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: Actually, you know, unlike maybe the rest of us. Here
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: they realize they have agency and this is an existential fight,
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: and this is a problem that we've now got and
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: you know, our current age of the strong men, as
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: everybody you know refers to it. We've got a bunch
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: of guys who basically think that they're so powerful and
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: that can be in the private sector as well that
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: you know, the techno bros. You know, you're as you've
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: got trillions, and you can do anything you want. They
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: kind of forget there's eight billion people on this planet
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: and everyone in their own way has some urgency either
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: to just ignore you, move away, you know, go of
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: the grid, try not to engage with you, to actually
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: be fight back. And that's you know what happened in
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: the case of Ukraine. Whutin just kind of assumes he
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: can tell Ukraines that they have to be Russians, you know,
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: kind of or you know, they don't have the right
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: to their own polity, and you know, a very large
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: number of them, it doesn't even have to be all
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: of them says no, thank you very much, and you know,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: I'd rather die. You know, some people would actually literally
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: say than you know, kind of live under under Moscow
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: and look, and that's another kind of problem when you intervene.
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: In the case of Iran, there are die hards for
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: that regime, you know, who will be rallying around seven
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 2: years absolutely, I mean, you know, this.
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: Is a part We look at Trump's megabase and how
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: devoted they are to here, that's right, and they've only
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: been He's only been their leader for a decade and
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: there they don't. I mean, you know it. The irony
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: is all these poles, the self described MAGA is more
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: pro bombing of Iran than the non MAGA wing of
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party. That's how devoted his base is. If
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: he says, this is what it should be there with them,
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: And it's amusing to me that he is shocked that
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: they're similar behavior and a theocracy.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: And the same in Russia because you've got so many
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: people who have vested into those, you know, regimes. And
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: then in Ukraine. Yes, you know, it's complex, but it's
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: a war. You know, it's just like London and the Blitz,
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: you know, and basically all the other classes that we
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: can think about from World War Two. They're going to
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: fight back and they're going to you know, keep on
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: resisting this, and even if somebody else tries to impose
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: a piece, who's to say that they're going to accept that.
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: And certainly the Ukrainians are not going to give up
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: the best defended parts of the Donbas region just because
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: Putin can't win it on the battlefield. So there's just
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: all this complexity, and I think, you know, we're in
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: a state where most of the people who are trying
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: to make decisions, forglect that there are other people, you know,
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: either they've just kind of run rulers all up because
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: you know, everything's you know, moving towards AI and automation
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: and humans won't exist, or who cares about, you know,
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: what human beings are doing. But actually we're large parts
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: of the world that is essential to understand those dynamics,
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 2: and that's you know where I really kind of think
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: that this administration falls short because Trump can't think of
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: anybody but himself. Sorry, but that's ultimately he himself and
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: other people's shoes.
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: He just can't do it, and he assumes everybody is
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: as transactional as he is. I mean, I think he's
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: genuinely surprised that around it and kind of deal, well.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, because I mean he doesn't really believe in ideology,
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: you know, the idolatry and idle lists of idea. You know,
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: he is an idol, He's American idol, you know, but
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: that's kind of he doesn't think of ideology in the
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: same maybe people around him do. But you know religious zeal.
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, look, we have a country here where evangelical
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: Christians and other you know, Christian uh, you know sects
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: and you know other religions you know, kind of a
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: very much we're all talking about it all the time.
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: But how much religion is infused in you know, daily
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: daily life and should be or should not be? Well,
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: in Iran it's very much fused in daily life. This
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: was a theocracy, So why are we surprised that there
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: is you know, a very much a fervent responsor to
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: all of this. When they I tell her how many died,
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: you know, for people this is the death of their
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: religious leader. It would be as if you know, for them,
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: and you know, people will go, oh my god, I'm
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: going to make the comparison. But again, this is for them.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: This would be as if you know, Trump had just taken.
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: Out the pope, right, and there would be a lot
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: of Catholics.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: Just absolutely beside themselves. And you know, I mean the
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: other you know complexity of all of this is that
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: in Islam, the theocracy and married you know, so you've
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: got this you know possibility, you know, direct assent. As
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: you said, we don't know whether Hamony son you know,
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: is actually all there. We kind of assume, but you know,
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: from the reports his wife was killed, his mother was killed,
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: one of his sons were killed. That is not exactly
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: going to be you know, to kind of deal exactly.
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: And so I mean this is again you know, did
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: this all get thought through?
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: Well, I think you know the answer to that question.
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so kind of rhetorical point. And I mean that's
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: you know, we always need to have all of these
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: extra contingencies. And that's you know where a larger process
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 2: you know, would have at least even if the decision
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: ultimately came down because a lot of people say, look
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: it was an operational decision, it had to be maximum secrecy,
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: you know, have that opportunity to take out you know,
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: how many and him is in a circle and it
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: was going to window was going to close. But just
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: the whole general idea of just not not just the
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: merits of actually taking that particular action, but what was
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: going to happen more broadly, it could have come out
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: of an enc process and into governmental process, you know,
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: getting in reports. I mean perhaps they did some of this,
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: you know from the ICE see the intelligence community. I'm
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: gonnaged to work in that people will prepare you know,
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: reports and assessments. And we're getting a little bit of
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: a hint of that from you know, some of the
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 2: stuff in the press. You would come to consult allies
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: that actually have not just a vested interest but a
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: lot of on the ground information, and you know, and
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: then again I mean back to Congress and at least
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: you know, the group and people are saying, well they
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: were told? Were they consulted? Being told? Is something different?
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: Do you you know? I feel like the advantage of
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: run right has right now is that simply the regime
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: surviving is winning. Yes, And you know it's just like
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: Russia and Afghanistan, US and Vietnam. Right, the asymmetrical I
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: mean the fact that supposedly there were orders given out
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: that just said do what you have to do. You
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: don't coordinate. That's some decentralized orders given to you know,
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: in the case of if the if Comania is killed,
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: you do what your best you think best is to
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: disrupt this or disrupt that or et cetera. That there's
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: not going to be command and control the way we
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: would have it, you know, coming out of the Pentagon
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: or something like that. That feels like an unwinnable war.
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: When you have that kind of asymmetric when you're dealing
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: with where the we're simply surviving is success.
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: Well, you know, I actually have to say that's.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: What it's actually what's happening in Ukraine right.
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: Now, right exactly exactly, That's exactly what I was going
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: to say, because I don't understand sometimes why you know,
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: Trump and other people are talking to about Ukraine's being losers,
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: because it's unbelievable Ukraine.
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: It believable that they're unbelievable.
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: Absolutely unbelievable, and you know, and then you know, and
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: as you say, that's survival in the face of a
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: literal onslaught is remarkable, and that's the whole you know,
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: myth of world War two for and it's not just
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: a myth obviously, for for Russia, the Soviet Union is
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: that you know, they survived against the odds. And again
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: in America, you know, we kind of built on this
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: idea of being the scrappy power that survives against all
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: of the odds when everyone's you know, written written us off.
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: And you know, unfortunately, you know, we kind of not
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: actually seeing that others because we tend to think in
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: black and white, good and evil. You know, white hats,
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 2: black hats. You know, the Iranians are the good guys
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: and you know the bad guys. We're the good guys.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: You know, us, we always have to win. We can't
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: actually see that that that you know that you know,
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: same response can come from you know, the opposing side.
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: And in Afghanistan, the Taliban, by the tenacious, they found
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: a way of constantly coming back, and you know they're back.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: Let's fast forward two years, there's a new president. There's
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: no restoration anymore. I think you could argue that twenty
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: twenty you can a restoration argument to the world that
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: we had going back to multilateralism and all of that stuff.
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: And there was a little bit of that with Biden.
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: It feels like the Europeans aren't going to trust us
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: a second time. That that is this generational I mean
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: I had somebody ask me this question and I basically said,
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: it's going to take a generation for us to repair
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: the broken alliances that have that have occurred over the
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: last ten years because of this trust issue. When until
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: they see two presidents in a row from different parties
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: behave the same way, we're not going to get trusted
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: again by the Europeans. Is that is that a fair
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: way of Yeah.
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: Maybe even longer, you know, obviously, And I think and
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: then what we're going to have is a different set
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: of alliances I suspect. I mean NETO won't exist in
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: you know, the form that is at least.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: Start staying out. I mean, what is it? I mean,
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: do you think we can You think NATO is an
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: alliance and name only at this point.
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: No. I actually think it's going to change. I mean,
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: it might shift its name a little bit. You know,
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: we used to have things like the Western European you
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: know alliance, the WA and you know all kinds of
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: other you know, kind of groupings at different time. And
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: I think that what we're going to get is you know,
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: more of a European pillar with Canada. I mean, the
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: US comes continent always like writing off Canada and forget
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: that Canada is actually part of the North American Treaty organization.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: And you know, for the United States to basically function
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: in terms of really protecting itself from ballistic missiles, the
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: whole idea of Trump's Golden Dome, you kind of eat Canada,
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: and it's not just Alaska and seas.
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: In Greenland doesn't work without Canada, no.
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: And you also need Norway and the United Kingdom because
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: some of the key radars that the Unies it would
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: be blind with that happened to be located there as well,
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: because it was part of that whole you know, North
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: Atlantic security infrastructure that you had there as well. And
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: all of those countries and in the Norwegians are beside
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: themselves about the whole tax on Greenland, not because you know,
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 2: this is you know, directly under their sovereignty now, but
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: it used to be. I mean, it has been a
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: part of that larger empire Norway, Denmark, you know, I
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: mean the Scandinavians, you know, more generally, they see this
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: as kind of assault on them as well, and you're
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: seeing groupings that used to exist beforced. In the case
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: of that Scandinavian landscape, we had something called the Obvious
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: all have it the Joint Expeditionary Force, which was neither
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: joint expedition nor a force at one point, but it
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: was a grouping to bring Sweden and Finland when they
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: were not part of NATO into closer coordination. It was
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 2: gone led by the British, but it had all the
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: Nordic Baltic states, and now that's expanding out. They're trying
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: to bring in Canada. They've got a kind of arrangement
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: with Poland, and it's all for coordination. And I think
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 2: that's kind of what's going to happen. We're going to
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: see more coordination that leads actually to real reformulation of
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: alliances on a regional basis or subregional that then starts
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: to shape the whole way that we are going to
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: have to then re engage because it won't be a
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: to because come back and you know a couple of
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: presidents he said, oh NATO, Yeah, where is that?
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: It actually got the key?
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: You know, it's like it's parks in the garage. You know,
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: can I go in there and you know, take it
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: for a spin and be like no, sorry, you know,
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: we've already started to move on and to do other
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: things now. The nuclear umbrella, you know, obviously for the
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: United States, was critical to natal and remains critical. We're
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: already having all kinds of descissions going on about you
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: know what happens with fanci's independent nuclear by not just program,
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: but it's nuclear arsenal. The UK having all kinds of
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: anxiety about how closely to entwined its submarine nuclear forces
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: with the United States, and wondering, you know, everybody's wondering
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: now about how can we relieve ourselves and what now
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: seems to be a potentially ruinous dependent on the United States,
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 2: Our allies, our erstwhile our so talking about us where
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 2: they never have before as a liability, no longer as
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 2: an asset.
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: So what would you do if you were in the
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: next president as you try to rebuild these alliances? How
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: would you advise the next president to you know that
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: everybody's going to treat you with trepidation. Is it just
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: lots of money? I mean, what what do you do
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: to start to fix it?
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: I don't We'll have that amount of money to throw
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: around anymore, you know. For one thing. Look, I think
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: there's also something us that's interesting that's happening because of
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: this over emphasis on the president, on the person of
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: the executive, this hyper personalization of the presidency. It's so
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: longer what Dick Cheney and you know people had in
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: mind of a unified executive. It's just one guy, you know,
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: going to lord it over.
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's I call it movie mob boss like, you know,
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: it's not what a real mob boss does, but it's
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: what he thinks the movie mob bosses do.
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: And if we think back going to the Knickson era
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: and Watergate and all the aftermath of that, that was
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: trying to kind of get rid of that corrosive potential
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: of too much concentration of power the president. And you know,
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 2: I think we're going to have to have in the
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: United States a major domestic discussion about this. And I
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 2: think that renew it might have to come from the
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: States because one thing that's also ready starting to happen
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: when I was in Europe just the last couple of
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 2: weeks finding out the individual American states are setting up
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: their own representation. Texas and obvious one California has been
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: out and about, but other states as well, you know,
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 2: because they no longer feel that their interests are being represented.
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you're a blue state, you know Trump
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: is you know, you're no longer part of the United States,
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: as Trump is saying, and he's not going to do
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: anything for you.
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: The Articles of Confederation have come.
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: Back, and I think that that actually might become, you know,
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 2: part of the way in which we reintegrate or kind
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 2: of reconnect, because you're starting to see states taken upon
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: themselves to think, well, gosh, you know this is terrible.
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 2: You know, we want to keep out of the time.
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: Of all this ends up we factualize.
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's I think there is a high
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: likelihood of that happening, whether you know people are really
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: cognizant of it or not. You're already seeing vaccine mandate,
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 2: compact public health. Yeah, we've seen that right in the
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: West Coast California, Washington, and Oregon. He's starting to say
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: in New England. You're starting to see universities, you know,
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: trying to link together as they're under attack and higher
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 2: ed you know, thinking about partnerships and programs abroad or
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 2: you know, across the United States and where they never
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 2: did before. Trump is catalyzing, you know, a lot of
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: change that needed to happen, you know, let's say, because
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, we know that, but it's a backing ball,
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 2: you know, it's a kind of a we're all going
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 2: to be rebuilding, and that's what the approach is going
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 2: to have to be for new president rebuild. And you're
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 2: also going to have to prioritize. And I don't know
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: whether this national security strategy was it because we said, hey,
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: we've moved away from the Middle East, we appear to
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: be mooluntarily back in it. So we're really going to
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 2: have to decide about where is it that we want
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 2: to use the full impact of US power, depending on
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: what's left of that at the end of this, if you.
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: Were sitting I'm going to two more questions, I want
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: to get you out of here. But if you were
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: sitting in She's shoes and you wanted to move on Taiwan,
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: wouldn't you absolutely prioritize doing it while Trump's in office?
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 2: Yes? And no, I mean yes, it would seem like
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: this is the you know, the really logical the times
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 2: it's not going to do anything about it. Yeah, I
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 2: want to do it, and everybody else is just watching
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: the horrors and folding elsewhere. They might not even notice
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: you've done it, you know, apart from all the articles
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: that I just wanted it says bye bye Taiwan. But
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 2: at the time, you know, it depends on what else
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: you think you can get out of this current moment
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 2: in terms of forging you know, ties with other countries,
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: you know, kind of picking up the you know, the
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 2: rubble from the rubble, you know, the damaged, you know, goods,
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: and you know, reforging.
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 1: She's a bit narcissistic though, I mean, he's he looks
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 1: at the long game a little bit more than Trump does,
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: but he also seems a bit shortsighted at times too.
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, yeah, and he's sort of consolidating in
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: a power at the moment. You know, in ways when you're.
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: Purge in your military like that that's what you have purged.
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 2: Your military might not be able to rely on in
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 2: the same way. And it might just be that, you know,
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 2: you might be able to put more force on Taiwan
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: in different ways to make Taiwan think, actually, you might
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: be better off with China now than this mayhem and
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 2: chaos given what the United States is doing, and maybe
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 2: that other countries, you know, as they are looking for
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: alternatives to the United States, maybe just more amenable as
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: people already are to doing things with China in ways
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: that might become more beneficial. I mean, if I was she,
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: but I'm not, you know, and I obviously don't think
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 2: in the way he is, I'd wait a bit, you know,
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: and see how this, see how this plays out. But
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 2: it may well be that, you know, kind of he
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: may also think that this is a window that he
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: has to take advantage of because it closes, just like
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: the Israeli case for We've got to go now, you know.
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 2: So you just again, we don't know, but I'm just
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: saying there could be a lot of opportunity here, you know,
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 2: for other countries to play things differently. I think already
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 2: we've moved beyond a US dominated world in the way
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: that it has been for the last eighty years. We're
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: in a kind of post packs Americana fisuer because that's
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 2: all kind of broken down. The US no longer keeps
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 2: the peace. But we might be in a you know,
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: it's a sort of a post American empire phase as well,
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: where other countries are all just basically now starting to
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 2: look out for themselves, but regrouping in different groups that
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 2: might exclude the.
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 1: We did that as a globe. We had a lot
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 1: of wars.
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 2: We did, and we've got more of wars now and
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: they're all, you know, getting tangled up, whether we like
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: it or not, because the United States is no longer
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: acting as a peacemaker and you know we're not. We're
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: just not doing that.
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: I thought he ended eight wars.
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: Sorry, Yeah, apparently.
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 1: Pudens lifespan his health and is there is there an
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 1: air apparent? Is he grooming anybody? You know? He seems
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 1: you know what, is Russia still vulnerable to massive change
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 1: and upheaval if Putin dies?
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 2: That's the point. Yes, of course it's vulnerable, as is
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 2: the United States frankly, if something happens to put a
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 2: Trump and also China was she Because once you consolidate
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: so much power in one individual, it's a very unhealthy
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: for your political system, whether there are an autocracy, and
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: especially if you're a democracy, you know, but autocracy as well,
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 2: because you know, none of these strong men leaders want
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 2: to groom a successor because they don't want to be
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: a lamb duck because in their settings, a lamb duck
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 2: might be a dead duck, you know, because somebody starts
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 2: to kind of expedite the process because they would actually
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 2: like to step into the shoes. And that's certainly how
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 2: Putin thinks, and maybe that's the way that you know
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 2: she thinks as well, because the more you move away
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 2: from something that's structured, even if you do have structures
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 2: in players for choosing a leader, strength structure, right, you know, yeah,
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: I mean look quite vulnerable, right, and I mean yes,
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 2: it used to be our strength. But Trump is basically
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 2: saying that nothing is important but him in the United
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 2: States at the moment. That's what Putin says. You know,
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: it's been wild that, you know, over the last couple
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: of weeks, you know, when people talking about Mega for example,
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: and Trump himself has said, there's no MAGA without me.
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: You know, basically in Russia Putin's office, there's no Russia
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 2: without Putin, and no Russia without you know, without Russia.
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: And it's all of this, it's all of a wonness.
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 2: You know that you've got this same kind of mindset,
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 2: and that becomes extraordinary brittle uh and and and you know,
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 2: a risk of upheaval in the Russian case. We had
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 2: that after Stalin on the Soviet case, and of course,
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: you know, eventually out of that game a collective leadership
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 2: and then crush off and then you know, kind of
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: lots of boring, you know, kind of ways of uh
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 2: selecting leaders after that. And you know that, look, that
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 2: could happen in Russia, but you know there are successors
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 2: out there, potential successes who come from the you know,
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 2: the the bodyguards from the security services that you know
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 2: seem to be close to put a good step up
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 2: and could just you know, continue what he's been doing,
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 2: you know, the equivalent of what we've seen in in
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 2: battles wield of Maduro to Chavez or to Ayatollah Many's son.
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: You know, for example, there was a time three or
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: four years ago where I think we all had a
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 1: little bit of hope that the Russian people might might
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: be a check on Putin. That doesn't seem to be
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 1: the case.
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: Well, a lot of Europeans everybody else wondering why the
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: American people are not a check.
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: On I get this question all the time. You're not
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 1: in the streets more.
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 2: Yes, exactly. Well, that's exactly it, because you know that
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 2: we've seen that the barriers are quite high when you
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: have a couple, you know, more than a couple of
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 2: protesters shot by falses. You got you know, American citizens
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 2: who were disappeared you know, by ice, which has happened,
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: and you know, you've got a kind of a feeling
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 2: of impunity in the system. The barrier is to entry
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 2: and to protest and you know kind of doing more
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 2: very high, and Russia is on that, you know, way
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 2: much higher, particularly blank piece of paper. We've even had
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 2: in the UK, the ridiculous situation, you know, after the
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 2: banning of Palestine, action of people being arrested as well,
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: you know, for holding up you know, pieces of paper.
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 2: We've got in all of societies. Now this kind of
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 2: you know, if your protest is out of step with
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 2: how people feel you know that their politics is going
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 2: or you know, the the mals or you know, values,
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 2: et cetera. You you know, can have everything kind of
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 2: come down in you with a with a massive weight.
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 2: So I think, you know, we should have a little
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 2: bit more understanding than you know, where the you know,
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: the Russians are coming from, because it's also feeling. I've
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 2: had so many people recently and the last week said
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 2: to me, I feel helpless. I feel like I have
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 2: no voice. I feel like I have no agency. You know,
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: what can I do?
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 1: I just you know, here, I tell them go vote.
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, and also you can do a lot of
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 2: things in your own community, and we can, all of us,
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 2: you know, but basically could press on our members of
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 2: Congress to remember there are members of Congress. I mean,
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 2: I'm very I'm a really good member of Congress. I
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 2: sort of certain feel that in his responsive I have
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 2: Jamie Raskin, you know, but you know, if I was
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 2: in another situation, you know, I might not feel that,
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 2: you know, kind of the somebody is you know, so
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 2: active in that way or as you know, he's certainly
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 2: not scared to stand up and say things, you know.
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 2: But so I think everybody, no matter where they are,
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: no matter you know, what part of the partisan spectrum
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 2: they're on, they should be demanding that they're members of Congress,
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 2: really represent them and represent all their constituencies, and remember
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 2: that they're a branch of power.
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: So is it fair to say that you're you, you're
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: epitomizing the great John McCain joke, which is it's always
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: darkest before it goes totally black. You're pretty realistically grim
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: about the short term future. It's honestly where I said,
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 1: I always say, I'm short term pessimistic, long long term optimistic.
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: We eventually figured out.
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 2: But I think we will figure it out, but it's
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 2: probably going to be in ways that we've just not anticipated.
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 2: As I said, it's a lot going to happen at
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 2: the state and local government level. You know, we already
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 2: see that. I think a lot of people might opt
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 2: out of national politics for quite some time because they'll
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: just feel that this is just hopeless and useless. But
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 2: you know that, but we might actually start to see
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 2: a drive for change coming from I mean, look, that
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 2: is the real source I think of American strength, which
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 2: is in the federal system and in the American people
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 2: writ large, not just as somebody.
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: No, I try to tell people, it's what Tokeville, it's
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: what to Touville said about us in democracy from America.
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 1: Was the thing he admired the most about our democracy
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 1: is how local it was and how people are locally.
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 2: The more people run for Congress, even as independents, you know,
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 2: the more that you can really kind of get people
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 2: out there. So I would urge people to go and
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 2: run for your school board, you know, run you know,
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 2: for local government, get involved in your communities, and write
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 2: to your call your Congress people, and just get them
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: to get with their jobs and be brave.
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, I just want these members of Congress to
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: read the Constitution and understand Article one. I feel like
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 1: most of them haven't read it well.
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 2: When I became a citizen, as an acturalized citizen, I
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 2: was given a copy of the Interconstitution and I have
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 2: it in my bag all the time because, you know,
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: as somebody who are to knows the Constitution, I thought
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 2: I should kind of know what you're wearing myself with it. Yeah, exactly.
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 2: And we do need to have more of these kinds
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 2: of conversations, Todd as well. We need to have all
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 2: kinds of national level conversations about where we're heading, because
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 2: this is you know, a very difficult time to affects
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 2: all of us. And you know, even if Trump might
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 2: have had the right and all kinds of nationales to
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: basically attack Iran, we all had the right to, you know,
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 2: basically say what happens in the future. So you know,
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 2: let's kind of find out different ways of being able
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 2: to participate in this. And I think everybody needs to
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: inform themselves about, you know, what is actually happening. Read widely,
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 2: listen to people like you, you know, listen to podcasts,
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 2: and you know, try to get and engage in all
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 2: of this.
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: Well, that's where I get hopeful. The last time we
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: were in a period like this, in the early twentieth century,
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 1: we made some of the biggest reforms onto our constitution
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 1: that mattered a lot, whether it was direct election of senators,
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: women that right to vote, and the income tax, which
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: we had this mass of oligarchy then that was developing
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 1: with with industrialization. So we did it once, but it
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: you know, we have to feel more pain. That's usually
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 1: the American way.
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and we definitely can't do it again, though we
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 2: definitely come we will.
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: Fiona is a great conversation. Realistic optimism does it right?
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 2: Thanks?
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 1: Well, I hope you enjoyed that conversation with Fiona Hill.
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: I really found you know, it's interesting she has spent
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: she has spent a lot of time traveling the US
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: outside of the coasts, if you will, outside the SLA
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 1: corridor are going. And I find myself feeling very similarly
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: that she does. When you get out there and you
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: start having conversations with folks outside of the bubbles of
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: New York and Washington, l a Silicon Valley, there's actually
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: a larger consensus out there of frustration with the dysfunction,
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 1: frustration with this sort of top down approach on everything,
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 1: you know, singular with politics and now singular with wealth,
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 1: and with what's happening with AI and the and the
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 1: and the Silicon Valley oligarchs and all this stuff. Right
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 1: that that there is a there is a the And
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 1: I think it's interesting. I think she thinks that many
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 1: people are going to retreat from federal politics but concentrate locally.
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 1: That's not the worst outcome if that's what happens over
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 1: the next ten years, that we basically retreat locally and
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 1: rebuild our local institutions, and once we rebuild the local institutions,
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 1: local information ecosystem, clean rooting out corrupt transactional politicians, things
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 1: like that, then it might be a lot easier to
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 1: do the restorative part of the democracy on the state
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 1: level and the federal level. Once once we all clean
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 1: up our own back yards. All right. With that, let's
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: get to some mess. Chuck ass chuck, all right, This
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 1: one comes from Julie from Portland. Hey, chuck, it used
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 1: to be that we had a long time in between
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 1: a major crisis, and now we seem to be getting
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 1: several every week since the beginning of the year. I
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 1: can recall we've had Venezuela, Greenland, Minnesota, and now we're
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 1: with Iron. And I feel that there have been several
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 1: more crises in between these things, but they come and
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 1: go so rapidly that I can keep up. How is
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 1: the psyche of the American people supposed to endure? With
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 1: all these major changes and threats coming coming at us
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: so quickly, the midterms seemed very far away. Not to
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 1: mention twenty twenty eight, appreciate your thoughts things Well, this
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 1: is when you hear the word chaos, right, And this
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 1: became a popular buzzword on the campaign trail in twenty
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 1: eighteen and twenty twenty because it grew out of a
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 1: lot of good old fashioned voter focus groups. Right, And
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 1: say what you will about focus grouping everything and things
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 1: like this, I find voter focus groups pretty helpful because
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 1: you do, you know, you hear the words of actual voters,
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 1: not you know, some posters interpretation, and what you're describing
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 1: this is that it's you know, why you hear a
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 1: lot of politicians, Hey, can we just stop the chaos?
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 1: You know, can we just can we just you know,
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 1: put a halt to this. Look, Joe Biden won because
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 1: he was the anti chaos candidate, and then I think
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 1: the mistake he made is he brought his own set
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: of chaos to governing right when really people just wanted
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 1: to take a breath, you know. I think, you know,
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 1: a little bit of Trump disruption was good. A lot
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 1: of bit of Trump disruption is exhausting. I'm going to choose.
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 1: I do think that in the long term we will
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 1: look at Trump's presidencies as an important MRI for the country,
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: for our soul, and hopefully we now see some things
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 1: that we don't like and we want to do something
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 1: about them. But I actually think this feeling that we
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 1: don't have control of events right, that everything is moving
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 1: so quickly we can wrap our arms around it is
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 1: actually one of the It's one of those It's a
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 1: it's a tough question to pull, you know, when you say,
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 1: what are the most important issues. You know, if I
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 1: ask you that as a polster, you're going to give
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 1: me issues. But it sounds like for you one of
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 1: the most important issues to Can we just slow down?
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: Can we stop the chaos? Can we stop the you know,
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 1: just sort of like you know, I think this is
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 1: a feature of Trump, right, This is you know, he's
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 1: got short attention span, he's got his version of add
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 1: so he's making us all sort of conform to his
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 1: way of doing things. He loves this, he doesn't he
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 1: can't folk. Anybody that has ever tried to brief Donald
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 1: Trump on a serious topic knows you've got about ten minutes,
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 1: and you better bring pictures because if you go thirty minutes,
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 1: forty five minutes and you know you're going to lose him.
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 1: He's going to fall asleep. He's going to be distracted.
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 1: He's going to take a call, he's going to ask
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 1: for six guy cokes. He is just not going to
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 1: stay focused. He's going to order you in Floorsheim shoes
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 1: if you're a guy, by guessing your shoe size. But
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 1: he's he's he's not gonna and don't leave him something
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 1: to read. He's not going to read it. This is
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 1: going to sound snarky and cynical. I don't believe he
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 1: has read a book from beginning to end in thirty years, specifically,
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 1: and certainly not his own books. That that has been proven, actually,
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 1: but I would love to be proven wrong that he
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: has read a book from front to back, just one
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 1: this century one. I don't buy it. That's how short
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 1: his attention span is. And so this is why this
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 1: is kind of a feature of this administration. He just
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 1: gets bored. He can't singularly focus on one thing at
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 1: a time. So but I think this is this is
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 1: what exhausts the what I call the silent majority, right.
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 1: I think I gave that anecdote of sort of an
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 1: acquaintance in mind that I ran into the day after
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 1: the Texas primaries and he didn't realize the Texas primaries
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 1: were happening, and he said, oh, what happened? And I
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 1: told him what happened. He's like, oh, I just didn't
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 1: want any more bomb throwers. Like there's an exhaustion out there.
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 1: There's an exhaustion from the partisan warfare, there's an exhaustion
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 1: from the crisis to crisis governance that Trump is comfortable in.
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: You know, here's the thing. We're all on the same
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 1: roller coaster. He's just not thrown up and the rest
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 1: of us are so I you know, this is why
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 1: I spent a long time deciding to go deep on
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 1: one issue, because I think I've glossed over some things
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 1: because I moved from you know, I get a little
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 1: too reactionary in the moment, and I think the thing
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 1: that we can do best here in the independent space,
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 1: in the podcast space, is to take the unlimited amount
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 1: of time that I do have, unlimited amount of bandwidth
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 1: in theory that is here, and to meticulously explain something
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 1: all the way from beginning to end. But the feeling
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 1: you have you're not alone, and in fact I think
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 1: it is. It is among the most important issues that
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 1: I think are going to drive independence towards candidates that
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 1: are running against any Republican incumbent, whether it's an independent
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 1: or a Democrat. Next question comes from Gael Woodinville, Washington.
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 1: Gail Rights, Hey, Chuck, thank you for the podcast that
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 1: always calls it like it is. I appreciate you saying that.
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 1: I know the War of the Ron and the Epstein
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 1: files are taking up all of the attention lately but
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 1: I feel like it's just a distraction, just distracting us
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 1: from the real issue at hand, which is winning the
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 1: House in the Senate November. Shouldn't be focus on the
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 1: GOP enablers or allowing the destruction of our country and
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 1: getting these pedophile protectors out of office. Thanks for all
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 1: you do. You know, it's interesting to sort of put
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 1: these two questions together, right, they kind of go together
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 1: both from the northwest, right, Washington and Oregon. Julie from Portland,
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 1: Gale from Woodenbille, Washington. You know, everything is a distraction
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 1: in the moment from something else that we should be
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 1: focused on. And this is sort of the Trump era
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 1: in a nutshell, Right, he has started eight fires. We've
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 1: got to put all eight fires out. Which fire do
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: you put out first? Right? And it's the prioritization issue
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 1: as always, Look in theory, I'm with You're right, everybody's
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 1: got to you know, should stay in their lane and
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 1: you know, make the main thing the main thing. But
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 1: it is only March, and I would argue, if you're
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 1: in elective office, you have some duty to try to
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 1: deal with the situation. That is, before you go to
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 1: the voters hoping for a different set of people to
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 1: work with to then deal with the situation that will be.
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 1: But you're you know, look, I one could argue that
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 1: the the the more Trump handles Iran and Epstein, the
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 1: more the easier for Democrats to focus on the House
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 1: and Senate because you know what Trump's not focused on affordability.
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 1: What Trump's not focused on is what there's domestic issues,
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 1: the issue of rising health care costs, the issues rising
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 1: electric bills, the issue of fear of AI job displacement.
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 1: By the way, the most underreported number in the new
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 1: NBC News poll is how unpopular AI is right now
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 1: with the American people. What's interesting is how how cautious
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 1: Democrats and elected office are at pushing back on AI.
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 1: What they're really saying is they don't trust these Silicon
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 1: Valley people to implement AI in a fair and equitable way.
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 1: That's what this is telling me, right, the same people
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 1: that brought you you the success that is social media
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 1: and what that's done. Do you think social media has
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 1: been a success or a failure for American society? My
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 1: guess is if you asked it that way, and I
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 1: would like some of my poster friends to ask this question,
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 1: and as neutral of the ways you can, I have
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 1: a feeling that the yes no would look a lot
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 1: like the favorable unfavorable view when it came to artificial intelligencers.
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 1: Right now is upside down in underwater. So I take
• 1:58:28
  Speaker 1: your point that everything looks like it's a distraction from
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 1: a just from something else that ought to be the focus.
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 1: But in some ways, it is that chaos that may
• 1:58:39
  Speaker 1: actually serve as a voting motivator for some people who
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 1: just want off the Trump roller coaster. All right, next question.
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 1: I think it comes from somebody from Kansas, but I
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 1: don't have a name, but let me read the He says,
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 1: you've spoken a few times about the amount of money
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 1: necessary for the Republicans to defend their Senate seat in Texas.
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 1: Would argue that money is becoming less of an issue
• 1:59:07
  Speaker 1: for two reasons. First, it seems to be available in
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 1: unlimited quantities. Well, if you're willing to wore yourself out
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 1: for crypto or for AI. Yes, the amount of money
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 1: spent in every election seems to increase since the last
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 1: by wider and wider margins fact check true. Coupled with
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 1: the law of diminishing returns, which says every additional dollar
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 1: spent is less effective than the last. Also true, I
• 1:59:27
  Speaker 1: think think there will always be enough money in every
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 1: state that state it's needed in. What do you think?
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 1: Thank you really enjoy your show and continue to wonder
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 1: if Kansas will ever and then it trails off. So
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 1: I think we missed one part of your secondary part
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 1: of that question. I agree with you that you know
• 1:59:48
  Speaker 1: it's been interesting. You know, Trump was out spent in
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 1: sixteen but won the presidential election. Trump was out spent
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty but run the presidential election. Republicans are
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 1: likely to outspend the Democrats in the midterms in twenty
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 1: twenty six, and yet Democrats are likely to have a
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 1: better mid term result than the Republicans. So you're not
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 1: wrong that there is sort of a diminishing return with
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 1: this big money. Part of it is the fragmentation issue, right,
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 1: It is so much harder. You know, it used to
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 1: be cheaper and efficient to reach ten million people with
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 1: you know, just a just a you know, not a
• 2:00:22
  Speaker 1: very diverse ad campaign. Now of course you've got to
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 1: you've got to maybe, you know, and most political campaigns
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 1: might produce six or seven unique television ads period. Now
• 2:00:34
  Speaker 1: you need to do whatever your television message for the
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 1: week is, you need to do six or seven different
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 1: versions of it so that one makes sense on TikTok
• 2:00:43
  Speaker 1: and one makes sense on YouTube, and one makes sense
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 1: on YouTube TV, and one makes sense on cable television
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 1: and one makes sense on broadcast. You know. So you know,
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 1: part of it is that the cost of running these
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 1: campaigns has exponentially grown as well. I understand the feeling
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 1: that money is sort of like there's a there's always money, right,
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 1: There's always money in the Banana stan, right, So yes,
• 2:01:08
  Speaker 1: I tend to agree with you, but we are getting
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 1: you know, these large giant forces Crypto AI are the
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 1: two biggest ones, right. I mean, you look at what's
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 1: happening in the Illinois Senate race, and it's just like
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 1: there's a super pack for each candidate that is funded
• 2:01:26
  Speaker 1: by some interest group that is not actually debate having
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 1: an issue debated in this primary, but they're trying to
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 1: buy an ally. Right. The Democratic primary for US Senate
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 1: in Illinois is attracting huge money. People. Why because whoever
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 1: wins a Democratic primary is going to be the US
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 1: Senator in Illinois. So whether you're a crypto advocate. Whether
• 2:01:46
  Speaker 1: you're an AI no regulation advocate or an AI pro
• 2:01:51
  Speaker 1: regulation advocate, you're trying to find your ally in this
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 1: democratic primary. So I I don't disagree with you about
• 2:02:01
  Speaker 1: your theory and money, but I do think we've sort
• 2:02:03
  Speaker 1: of we've been overserved. It's time to step away from
• 2:02:08
  Speaker 1: the bar. It's time to put some restrictions here. We're
• 2:02:12
  Speaker 1: not asking for super restrictions, but we've got to have
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 1: some because what you know, the fact that crypto and
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 1: Silicon Valley and AI have essentially hijacked Washington financially right now,
• 2:02:24
  Speaker 1: and they have is it's unprecedented what we've seen. And
• 2:02:30
  Speaker 1: the dirty little secret is every elected officials kind of
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 1: grossed out by this, but nobody wants to offend the
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 1: money people that support them. So that's why this system
• 2:02:41
  Speaker 1: isn't getting fixed. I mean, I go back to Chuck
• 2:02:45
  Speaker 1: Schumer telling a closed door meeting of Senate Democrats to
• 2:02:48
  Speaker 1: suck it up and get on board crypto because the
• 2:02:50
  Speaker 1: Fair Shake people had too much money to go up
• 2:02:54
  Speaker 1: against essentially the Senate Democrats. It's been extorted by the
• 2:03:01
  Speaker 1: crypto folks. Is that the system we had in mind,
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 1: is that the system the founders had in mind. I
• 2:03:07
  Speaker 1: don't think so. Next question comes from Jay in New York.
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 1: Jay initial not Jay, and Jay asked at what point
• 2:03:15
  Speaker 1: does a fundraising discrepancy between an incumbent and a challenger
• 2:03:18
  Speaker 1: outweigh the partisan lean of a race. For example, Lauren
• 2:03:20
  Speaker 1: Bobert's Colorado four district is R plus nine. Trump got
• 2:03:23
  Speaker 1: fifty seven percent of the vote, just beneath the fifty
• 2:03:24
  Speaker 1: nine percent threshold you set. But in Q four, one
• 2:03:27
  Speaker 1: democrat running against Bobert raised a staggering two million dollars
• 2:03:30
  Speaker 1: compared to Bobert one hundred and seventy four thousand, and
• 2:03:32
  Speaker 1: that democrat has two and a half million cash on
• 2:03:33
  Speaker 1: hand compared to Bobert's two in a nineteen thousand cash
• 2:03:36
  Speaker 1: on hand. Should Bobert be concerned about that much money?
• 2:03:38
  Speaker 1: Or is her district truly too Republican? Look, I don't
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 1: think it's Greeley. This is the sort of I think
• 2:03:45
  Speaker 1: the old it's the old Wayne Allard's seat, That's what
• 2:03:49
  Speaker 1: I remember it as. But it's like the Fourth Congression.
• 2:03:51
  Speaker 1: The old fourth Congressional district up in Colorado was always
• 2:03:54
  Speaker 1: sort of the conservative district that wasn't Colorado Springs. It
• 2:03:58
  Speaker 1: was Greeley, it was always the center of it. I
• 2:04:01
  Speaker 1: want to say Weld County I think was one of
• 2:04:04
  Speaker 1: the heart of that. Fort Collins used to be a
• 2:04:06
  Speaker 1: part of it. They've now moved Fort Collins out of
• 2:04:08
  Speaker 1: it because I think Fort Collins became too liberal and
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 1: it was diluting that district, making it more competitive. I
• 2:04:18
  Speaker 1: think we've learned, right, you can have there. It really
• 2:04:23
  Speaker 1: depends on the challenge of themselves, right, which is you
• 2:04:27
  Speaker 1: have all the money in the world. We saw this
• 2:04:31
  Speaker 1: in Jamie Harrison had more money than Lindsay Graham and
• 2:04:34
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, but that wasn't going to be enough, and
• 2:04:41
  Speaker 1: that that's about arguably about the same. Maybe South Carolina
• 2:04:46
  Speaker 1: is slightly more Republican than the district you're describing here,
• 2:04:49
  Speaker 1: so you know, this is kind of a you're you're
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 1: pointing to about a ten to one cash advantage here.
• 2:04:58
  Speaker 1: I think when you get to the twenty five to
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 1: one with an incumbent member of Congress, because you're going
• 2:05:04
  Speaker 1: to have outside groups that are going to come in
• 2:05:05
  Speaker 1: for her. And that's the other part of this, right,
• 2:05:07
  Speaker 1: A challenger might raise a bunch of money in a
• 2:05:10
  Speaker 1: red leaning district, or a challenger might raise a bunch
• 2:05:13
  Speaker 1: of money a blue Republican in a blue leaning district.
• 2:05:15
  Speaker 1: But are the third party groups, the independent expenditure groups
• 2:05:19
  Speaker 1: going to come in behind them and to spend money
• 2:05:22
  Speaker 1: there or are they going to consider it a waste
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 1: of money versus those that know that that seat is
• 2:05:27
  Speaker 1: winnable on their side and they come in there. So
• 2:05:29
  Speaker 1: where what happens is I'm sure Bobert just knows because
• 2:05:33
  Speaker 1: she's had this before. Outside groups are going to come
• 2:05:36
  Speaker 1: in and save her if necessary, and outside democratic groups
• 2:05:41
  Speaker 1: are likely not to spend their money there. There instead,
• 2:05:46
  Speaker 1: and that it's specific in Colorado, they're probably going to
• 2:05:48
  Speaker 1: spend money. I think they think they can flip the
• 2:05:51
  Speaker 1: third district on the other side of the Rockies. They
• 2:05:53
  Speaker 1: think maybe they can flip the Colorado Springs district, So
• 2:05:57
  Speaker 1: I think they're more likely to concentrate their sources elsewhere.
• 2:06:00
  Speaker 1: So it is it is about whether your is your
• 2:06:06
  Speaker 1: race competitive enough that the outside groups will engage, And
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 1: in this case, I think that's why that isn't the case.
• 2:06:12
  Speaker 1: But is there a rule of thumb? Like I said,
• 2:06:16
  Speaker 1: that's a ten to one, and I wouldn't still view
• 2:06:18
  Speaker 1: that as you know, look, in a bad year for Republicans,
• 2:06:22
  Speaker 1: they're going to lose some seats that that are plus
• 2:06:27
  Speaker 1: nine plus ten Trump maybe even lose a seat or
• 2:06:30
  Speaker 1: two that is usually there's some other reason, right, a scandal,
• 2:06:34
  Speaker 1: lazy candidate, bad candidate, something like that. Now Bobert is
• 2:06:39
  Speaker 1: not the best candidate, right, she doesn't always you know,
• 2:06:42
  Speaker 1: running come across as a conventional member of Congress, and
• 2:06:46
  Speaker 1: she's already kind of a carpetbager. Right, it's not really
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 1: from that area. She she shopped that district. So I
• 2:06:52
  Speaker 1: think she's being a little lazy here because I don't
• 2:06:56
  Speaker 1: know if she's as as a trenched in this district
• 2:07:02
  Speaker 1: as she was, you know, and you remember she moved district,
• 2:07:04
  Speaker 1: so she feared she was going to lose on that front.
• 2:07:08
  Speaker 1: So I think that, you know, she probably has a false,
• 2:07:10
  Speaker 1: a little false sense of security, but there's a reason
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 1: she has that she feels that security. Next question comes
• 2:07:17
  Speaker 1: from Andrew D goes, this is a little dark, a
• 2:07:19
  Speaker 1: byproduct of reading too many Grisham novels. Okay, you're right,
• 2:07:24
  Speaker 1: Grisham has gotten a little dark, and some of his
• 2:07:27
  Speaker 1: more recent books anyway, He goes, what a right wing Magazella,
• 2:07:30
  Speaker 1: or even more nefarious, someone in Trump's enter circle set
• 2:07:32
  Speaker 1: off a catastrophic public bomb and claim it was an
• 2:07:34
  Speaker 1: Iranian terror cell towards the end of summer, thus resulting
• 2:07:37
  Speaker 1: in the government having an excuse to shut down the
• 2:07:39
  Speaker 1: midterm elections. Putin got where he is today doing the
• 2:07:41
  Speaker 1: same thing, same type of thing in Chechia. I feel
• 2:07:45
  Speaker 1: getting this out ahead of time could ruin the surprise
• 2:07:48
  Speaker 1: intent of the people. Thank you p S. Sunday's For
• 2:07:49
  Speaker 1: eight years before my son went to college, was getting
• 2:07:52
  Speaker 1: our breakfast cooked and ready so we could sit and
• 2:07:54
  Speaker 1: watch me the press. Thanks for that routine, Andrew d Andrew,
• 2:07:57
  Speaker 1: thanks for sharing that love. Love those father sons stories.
• 2:08:02
  Speaker 1: Those are neat When I go to college campuses and
• 2:08:04
  Speaker 1: people say they grew up watching me, and of course
• 2:08:07
  Speaker 1: I know they mean it as a compliment. It only
• 2:08:09
  Speaker 1: makes me feel old. But that's neither here or there. Look,
• 2:08:13
  Speaker 1: I did a whole thing on the Reichstag fire a
• 2:08:15
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, which was an important moment for
• 2:08:18
  Speaker 1: Hitler to essentially use the government against the people and
• 2:08:26
  Speaker 1: to use government to acquire authoritarian legitimacy. So I have
• 2:08:40
  Speaker 1: to say I I mean, you know, the end of succession.
• 2:08:47
  Speaker 1: I'm starting the fire at the big central counting location
• 2:08:50
  Speaker 1: in Milwaukee. Right, we've seen that one that would totally
• 2:08:53
  Speaker 1: have been something you're like that scared the Jesus out
• 2:08:56
  Speaker 1: of a lot of people, going, Hey, that seems super realistic.
• 2:09:02
  Speaker 1: Welcome to distrust in America, right, I mean, you know
• 2:09:06
  Speaker 1: what you're describing, You're right, is something that most Russians
• 2:09:09
  Speaker 1: just believe is fact, that that's just how the world works.
• 2:09:17
  Speaker 1: I just I here's why. I don't believe it's possible.
• 2:09:22
  Speaker 1: I just think that those conspiracies never hold. They just don't.
• 2:09:31
  Speaker 1: People break people people you know, you know, do not
• 2:09:35
  Speaker 1: let that go. And I just don't think it's you know,
• 2:09:38
  Speaker 1: it's it is. I don't think that stuff gets suppressed.
• 2:09:43
  Speaker 1: I think if you're waiting for some bombshell that you
• 2:09:46
  Speaker 1: think has never been reported, it's never been reported because
• 2:09:48
  Speaker 1: there's no bombshell there and a lot of these conspiracies
• 2:09:54
  Speaker 1: that can get us all sent down certain rabbit holes.
• 2:09:59
  Speaker 1: But hey, look not you're not putting out I wish,
• 2:10:04
  Speaker 1: I wish I would say you're being crazy, Andrew, all Right,
• 2:10:07
  Speaker 1: I don't believe it'll be and I don't believe that
• 2:10:12
  Speaker 1: even Trump has enough support to pull something like this
• 2:10:16
  Speaker 1: off without it, well, you know, without it sort of
• 2:10:21
  Speaker 1: somebody whistleblowing. But that's life in a democracy that ultimately
• 2:10:27
  Speaker 1: I count on somebody being a whistleblower, that at the
• 2:10:30
  Speaker 1: end of the day, somebody's conscience gets the best of them.
• 2:10:33
  Speaker 1: And you know, I would you know, it's interesting. I
• 2:10:35
  Speaker 1: saw the other day somebody dunking on. Somebody tweeted out
• 2:10:42
  Speaker 1: a sort of regret on voting for Trump, and it
• 2:10:45
  Speaker 1: was a long list. You know, I thought I was
• 2:10:48
  Speaker 1: voting for this, this, and this, and I feel taken,
• 2:10:53
  Speaker 1: and you know, I regret my vote. And somebody retweeted
• 2:10:58
  Speaker 1: above it and all the responses were, well, you're the
• 2:11:01
  Speaker 1: more and I can't believe you fell for it. And
• 2:11:03
  Speaker 1: I just was wanting to send There was somebody else
• 2:11:04
  Speaker 1: who was quote tweeting it and just saying, you know,
• 2:11:07
  Speaker 1: you need to ask yourself why you were so ignorant
• 2:11:11
  Speaker 1: and what I want to say to those folks. And
• 2:11:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they listen to this podcast, because
• 2:11:17
  Speaker 1: I'm not somebody who is a who just tells you
• 2:11:20
  Speaker 1: what you want to hear. I just would never be
• 2:11:22
  Speaker 1: able to do that. It's just not that's not who
• 2:11:25
  Speaker 1: I am. So I'm not so. And I know that
• 2:11:28
  Speaker 1: this may be saved for those partisan you know, those
• 2:11:32
  Speaker 1: that you know are trying to save America, that claim
• 2:11:34
  Speaker 1: they're saving America with their podcasts. Which is, everybody's got
• 2:11:43
  Speaker 1: a line that Trump crosses, but everybody's line is in
• 2:11:47
  Speaker 1: a different place. I said something to a family member
• 2:11:52
  Speaker 1: early on in the Trump years, and I said, it
• 2:11:53
  Speaker 1: be careful being overly critical of some of these folks.
• 2:11:57
  Speaker 1: I said, somebody you don't like today is going to
• 2:11:59
  Speaker 1: be the hero of this story. And the punchline is,
• 2:12:03
  Speaker 1: you know, at that moment, little did anybody know that
• 2:12:06
  Speaker 1: Liz Cheney would be a hero for protecting democracy to
• 2:12:10
  Speaker 1: many on the left some three years later, and yet
• 2:12:13
  Speaker 1: she was turned out. It was January sixth was the
• 2:12:16
  Speaker 1: line for her. Everybody has a line. It is not
• 2:12:22
  Speaker 1: in the same place we live. If you want to
• 2:12:27
  Speaker 1: live in a thriving democracy, you need to accept the
• 2:12:30
  Speaker 1: premise that we all don't agree, that we all may
• 2:12:34
  Speaker 1: have ethics and morals, but they're not in alignment with
• 2:12:36
  Speaker 1: each other's ethics and morals, and that we all have
• 2:12:44
  Speaker 1: our we all have our no go zones. Right, we
• 2:12:47
  Speaker 1: all have the line. If they crosses this line, I'm out.
• 2:12:54
  Speaker 1: Welcome them, Welcome them to the bunker, don't lecture them
• 2:12:58
  Speaker 1: for taking too long to get The next question comes
• 2:13:11
  Speaker 1: from Amanda, and she writes, I had to stop what
• 2:13:14
  Speaker 1: I was doing during your March second podcast because once
• 2:13:17
  Speaker 1: again I found myself shouting, why don't you run for president?
• 2:13:19
  Speaker 1: Mister Todd. The way you break down something as complex
• 2:13:22
  Speaker 1: as the Iran assault with legal, historical, in fact driven
• 2:13:24
  Speaker 1: clarity is exactly what this country needs. You are truly
• 2:13:27
  Speaker 1: one of the last honest, fair and balanced voices in
• 2:13:29
  Speaker 1: the media, and I often have to listen twice just
• 2:13:31
  Speaker 1: to absorb it all. Thank you for doing what you do.
• 2:13:33
  Speaker 1: Gives me hope in a time when I often feel
• 2:13:35
  Speaker 1: like we're living through the fall of Rome. Well, Amanda,
• 2:13:39
  Speaker 1: I wonder what people in Rome at the time. Did
• 2:13:41
  Speaker 1: they know what was all coming to an end? Or
• 2:13:42
  Speaker 1: do they all think, oh, no, we can fix this
• 2:13:44
  Speaker 1: right where they're naive like me, No, no, no, we'll
• 2:13:47
  Speaker 1: figure it out. Well, I think you just described the
• 2:13:51
  Speaker 1: reason why someone like me will never get elected, right
• 2:13:55
  Speaker 1: because you said fact driven clarity is exactly what this
• 2:13:58
  Speaker 1: country needs. What president has successfully used fact driven clarity
• 2:14:03
  Speaker 1: to to get a majority on their side. A sort
• 2:14:10
  Speaker 1: of half kid. And the candidates that that scratch my
• 2:14:17
  Speaker 1: itch are usually the ones that are at one or
• 2:14:18
  Speaker 1: two percent. I remember, you know, I was one of
• 2:14:22
  Speaker 1: the candidates that intrigued me the most on the Democratic
• 2:14:25
  Speaker 1: side in twenty twenty. It was Michael Bennett, and I
• 2:14:29
  Speaker 1: remember him at one debate he said the issue that
• 2:14:33
  Speaker 1: I cared the most about. He says, if you elect
• 2:14:35
  Speaker 1: me president, you might, I might, you might go three
• 2:14:37
  Speaker 1: weeks without hearing from me. And I thought, yes, give
• 2:14:40
  Speaker 1: me more of that. That resonated like a wet noodle. Right,
• 2:14:49
  Speaker 1: But it's I appreciate you saying that. It's very kind
• 2:14:52
  Speaker 1: of you, and I just I'll tell you why I've
• 2:14:56
  Speaker 1: never even contemplated entering politics, because I think it would
• 2:15:01
  Speaker 1: undermine elected office. I'll say this way. I always fear
• 2:15:05
  Speaker 1: to underline my credibility on the media side, and not
• 2:15:08
  Speaker 1: just mine, but other members of the media. You know,
• 2:15:12
  Speaker 1: you play into the type that you know, you're an
• 2:15:14
  Speaker 1: activist and all this stuff, and yet you know I'm
• 2:15:17
  Speaker 1: a citizen too, and you're right, you know, so I
• 2:15:21
  Speaker 1: you know, but I've decided to throw my efforts, my
• 2:15:24
  Speaker 1: political efforts into restructuring the democracy, reforming, updating the infrastructure
• 2:15:30
  Speaker 1: for the democracy. We need a couple of new constitutional amendments.
• 2:15:33
  Speaker 1: It's pretty clear we need one on campaign money. It's
• 2:15:36
  Speaker 1: pretty clear we need one on on some on some
• 2:15:39
  Speaker 1: jerry mendering, and perhaps we need one just a simple
• 2:15:42
  Speaker 1: right to vote aspect in the constitution itself. And you know,
• 2:15:48
  Speaker 1: if I feel like that's the place I can contribute
• 2:15:52
  Speaker 1: best is sadly, running for president is just simply it's
• 2:15:56
  Speaker 1: like agreeing to like join the cast of Survivor, and
• 2:16:02
  Speaker 1: that's just not something I've ever wanted to be a
• 2:16:06
  Speaker 1: part of, if you get my drift. But clarity is
• 2:16:10
  Speaker 1: my goal here. So the fact that you're getting clarity,
• 2:16:13
  Speaker 1: I feel as if a mission as a president might
• 2:16:16
  Speaker 1: say mission accomplished. All right. Last question comes from Jim
• 2:16:22
  Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, and he goes, hey, I've heard it said
• 2:16:24
  Speaker 1: that the next president, regardless of whether they're a Republican
• 2:16:26
  Speaker 1: or Democrat, may have difficulty doing a one Ady on
• 2:16:28
  Speaker 1: tariff says this may be the new norm as a
• 2:16:30
  Speaker 1: revenue stream. If that is the case, how does the
• 2:16:32
  Speaker 1: country go about removing tariffs. How did we change course
• 2:16:34
  Speaker 1: from the William McKinley days when he was pro tariff
• 2:16:37
  Speaker 1: to the free trade that we've had most recently. Is
• 2:16:39
  Speaker 1: it something that can be done like a band aid
• 2:16:41
  Speaker 1: that's ripped off, or does it take multiple presidencies and
• 2:16:43
  Speaker 1: the building of goodwill to develop free trade? Well, I
• 2:16:46
  Speaker 1: think it's going to be you know, I think goodwill
• 2:16:49
  Speaker 1: is going to be one issue, right, and we may
• 2:16:52
  Speaker 1: have so many reciprocal tariffs that are impacting US. I
• 2:16:55
  Speaker 1: don't think getting rid of the tariffs are going to
• 2:16:57
  Speaker 1: be that difficult. I think, but what some people claim
• 2:17:02
  Speaker 1: that will be difficult is giving how do you replace
• 2:17:04
  Speaker 1: the revenue if it is bringing in so much revenue
• 2:17:10
  Speaker 1: that it that if you get rid of it, then
• 2:17:14
  Speaker 1: you have to find a way to replace the revenue. Now,
• 2:17:17
  Speaker 1: I've always believed what Donald Trump was and what proponents
• 2:17:21
  Speaker 1: of his tariff strategy were really hoping. Trump has said this,
• 2:17:25
  Speaker 1: he wanted to get rid of the income tax. He
• 2:17:28
  Speaker 1: wants to repeal the sixteenth Amendment. He wants to get
• 2:17:32
  Speaker 1: rid of the income tax. Most rich people do. Rich
• 2:17:35
  Speaker 1: people hated the income tax. The reason they put in
• 2:17:38
  Speaker 1: we put in the income tax is because these industrialists
• 2:17:42
  Speaker 1: were not paying their fair share, and the tariff system
• 2:17:45
  Speaker 1: of taxation, which was the primary way the government raised money,
• 2:17:50
  Speaker 1: made it so that essentially the working class and the
• 2:17:52
  Speaker 1: working poor were actually paying more in taxes than the
• 2:17:58
  Speaker 1: wealthy were. And so that's why we ended up with
• 2:18:02
  Speaker 1: the income tax in the first place, and the property
• 2:18:05
  Speaker 1: tax structure that we see some governors wanting to get
• 2:18:09
  Speaker 1: rid of today, which if you get rid of that,
• 2:18:12
  Speaker 1: all you're going to do is get rid of government
• 2:18:17
  Speaker 1: services that a lot of people like and find yourself
• 2:18:21
  Speaker 1: on the wrong end of a pitchfork, that I promise you.
• 2:18:25
  Speaker 1: So it's the revenue, the potential for the lost revenue
• 2:18:32
  Speaker 1: that I think has made some people think they'll be
• 2:18:34
  Speaker 1: harder to get rid of, which is obviously what Trump
• 2:18:36
  Speaker 1: is hoping to do. But terrif's not going to be
• 2:18:39
  Speaker 1: hard to get rid of, not if you really want
• 2:18:41
  Speaker 1: to do it. And it's but the problem and I
• 2:18:45
  Speaker 1: think now it's pretty clear they're not very effective and
• 2:18:48
  Speaker 1: they only seem to punish the American consumer, not the
• 2:18:51
  Speaker 1: country we're intending to impact. All right, Well, that does
• 2:18:57
  Speaker 1: it for questions? It is uh, it is perhaps the
• 2:19:03
  Speaker 1: single greatest four day period for college basketball that there is.
• 2:19:08
  Speaker 1: I know we're supposed to say the NCAA Tournament. It
• 2:19:12
  Speaker 1: is amazing. I love the NCAA Tournament. And next weekend,
• 2:19:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, it is going to be very
• 2:19:18
  Speaker 1: difficult for me to be doing tapings and and paying attention.
• 2:19:24
  Speaker 1: I have a TV within eyesight, within my eyeline here,
• 2:19:29
  Speaker 1: I don't have it on. I am taping because right
• 2:19:31
  Speaker 1: now what I love about this week and this weekend
• 2:19:35
  Speaker 1: is there is basketball that starts at ten am Eastern time.
• 2:19:38
  Speaker 1: And there's basketball that I was watching last night Wednesday
• 2:19:43
  Speaker 1: night that is Eastern Washington, and I was watching that
• 2:19:46
  Speaker 1: game and and uh and that was well past midnight,
• 2:19:49
  Speaker 1: one o'clock. And every game means something, right, everybody's got
• 2:19:55
  Speaker 1: their own little uh march madness. U right, it is.
• 2:20:01
  Speaker 1: This is it's it's funny, and it's like every other sport.
• 2:20:06
  Speaker 1: You know, college basketball has a regular season problem, although
• 2:20:09
  Speaker 1: I think this year was one of the better regular seasons.
• 2:20:12
  Speaker 1: And please more interconference scheduling in February that is fabulous.
• 2:20:18
  Speaker 1: We had a lot of I mean that seeing Michigan
• 2:20:20
  Speaker 1: and Duke play, you know, in a non conference game
• 2:20:22
  Speaker 1: in the middle of so called conference season. In fact,
• 2:20:24
  Speaker 1: I'd love to see a flip right, start the conference
• 2:20:27
  Speaker 1: schedules earlier in November and December, go ahead, and the
• 2:20:31
  Speaker 1: first matchups then, and you know those are on campus
• 2:20:35
  Speaker 1: games and all that stuff, and then like have some
• 2:20:37
  Speaker 1: bigger games to start showcasing. Because one of the things
• 2:20:40
  Speaker 1: we're learning about college basketball, I think in the NIL
• 2:20:43
  Speaker 1: era is basically, if you're under six', five you now
• 2:20:49
  Speaker 1: are more likely to, play and no matter how great you,
• 2:20:52
  Speaker 1: are you're more likely to play for all four years in.
• 2:20:55
  Speaker 1: College one is it's just not a lot of appetite
• 2:20:58
  Speaker 1: in THE nba for anybody on six.' five and then
• 2:21:03
  Speaker 1: if you're obviously if you're a center that's six 's nine,
• 2:21:05
  Speaker 1: or shorter Unless you're bam out of, bio right the
• 2:21:09
  Speaker 1: shortest center. THERE is i mean talking about a guy
• 2:21:11
  Speaker 1: who plays almost half a foot taller than he. Actually
• 2:21:15
  Speaker 1: is i'm still just shocked by his eighty three, point,
• 2:21:19
  Speaker 1: Game Right, kobe Bryant Not, luca RIGHT not i Mean.
• 2:21:25
  Speaker 1: Not lebron like when you think who's number Two To,
• 2:21:27
  Speaker 1: will right it's going to be such a such a
• 2:21:30
  Speaker 1: great question in, thirty, Years right and people are, Gonna,
• 2:21:32
  Speaker 1: guess wow maybe Was It magic? Johnson did he'd? Do
• 2:21:34
  Speaker 1: It Did? Larry Bird And michael, Jordan Did, Turk Nowitzki
• 2:21:38
  Speaker 1: tim duncan you start? GO through, i MEAN if i
• 2:21:41
  Speaker 1: put together thirty names top names in THE, CURRENT nba
• 2:21:47
  Speaker 1: i don't KNOW when i would GET. TO bam i
• 2:21:49
  Speaker 1: don't know if i'd GET to bam as potential for
• 2:21:51
  Speaker 1: having an eighty three. Point game but when you start
• 2:21:53
  Speaker 1: the first quarter with thirty, one points, you know you
• 2:21:55
  Speaker 1: gotta love it that they, just fed, you know found
• 2:21:58
  Speaker 1: ways to keep feeding them and keep. Doing THAT but
• 2:22:03
  Speaker 1: i digressed a. Little bit the point being IS that
• 2:22:05
  Speaker 1: i think that we are this the top twenty five
• 2:22:09
  Speaker 1: teams in. College basketball so this will be when it
• 2:22:12
  Speaker 1: comes to the seeding when we see the Brackets, on
• 2:22:15
  Speaker 1: sunday the ONE through i would put here the one through,
• 2:22:19
  Speaker 1: five SEEDS and i might expand it to the. SIX
• 2:22:22
  Speaker 1: seeds i do think this is such a top heavy
• 2:22:24
  Speaker 1: year that there is nobody outside the top six seeds
• 2:22:27
  Speaker 1: will be in a. FINAL four i do not think
• 2:22:30
  Speaker 1: you'll see a seven or. HIGHER seed i think there
• 2:22:32
  Speaker 1: is a. Huge gap, the gap THERE'S a i think
• 2:22:35
  Speaker 1: there's there's sort, of like there's the there's eight teams
• 2:22:40
  Speaker 1: that seem super elite and seem like and obviously four
• 2:22:44
  Speaker 1: of them are going to at least four of aret
• 2:22:45
  Speaker 1: going to Make the final four and. All that then
• 2:22:47
  Speaker 1: you have sort of the next twelve who can beat
• 2:22:49
  Speaker 1: those top eight teams on any. Given night the question
• 2:22:52
  Speaker 1: is can they beat two of them in a row
• 2:22:55
  Speaker 1: right to make it to the to an eight or
• 2:22:57
  Speaker 1: a sixty or a. Final four but enjoy these games
• 2:23:03
  Speaker 1: because we are getting its high quality of college basketball
• 2:23:07
  Speaker 1: matchups than we've gotten since. THE eighties, i mean, YOU
• 2:23:11
  Speaker 1: know i think back at those golden years Of The,
• 2:23:13
  Speaker 1: big east when you had When The big east was the.
• 2:23:17
  Speaker 1: Deepest conference one year they came really close to getting.
• 2:23:21
  Speaker 1: All four, in Fact At, boston college who was In The.
• 2:23:26
  Speaker 1: Big east Then At, BOSTON college i think not lost
• 2:23:29
  Speaker 1: In the elite Eight. To memphis the final four that Featured,
• 2:23:34
  Speaker 1: For Villanova saint John's and georgetown would have been An
• 2:23:37
  Speaker 1: All Big east. Final Four, BUT memphis i think is
• 2:23:39
  Speaker 1: the BACK then i think they were Known As. MEMPHIS
• 2:23:41
  Speaker 1: state i think it Was The keith lee team broke
• 2:23:45
  Speaker 1: through and it was three of. The four but the
• 2:23:47
  Speaker 1: quality of college basketball in the mid eighties when everybody
• 2:23:51
  Speaker 1: had to stay, three years three, or fourth so you'd
• 2:23:53
  Speaker 1: have these incredibly sort of. Mature teams that was one version.
• 2:23:56
  Speaker 1: Of it now IN the, Nil, era no you're not
• 2:23:59
  Speaker 1: going to get maybe players growing up with, each other
• 2:24:02
  Speaker 1: solidifying over. Multiple seasons but you do see a big
• 2:24:06
  Speaker 1: difference between the beginning of the season and the end of.
• 2:24:08
  Speaker 1: The Season right i'm watching it. Very closely IN. The
• 2:24:10
  Speaker 1: acc the hottest team in THE a sec is not
• 2:24:12
  Speaker 1: going to make. The Tournament It's. Florida State florida State since,
• 2:24:17
  Speaker 1: february first has been fantastic and classic, new coach young
• 2:24:22
  Speaker 1: team finally. Coming together they're the team no one wants
• 2:24:25
  Speaker 1: to face in THE a. Sec Tournament RIGHT if i
• 2:24:28
  Speaker 1: don't think they're going to win THE a, sec tournament
• 2:24:30
  Speaker 1: but if if they make the semis or, the finals
• 2:24:33
  Speaker 1: not going to. Be shocked they've just, been playing, you
• 2:24:36
  Speaker 1: know they've they've quote figured. It out and that's what's
• 2:24:38
  Speaker 1: kind of. Fun. About right you can get hot in
• 2:24:40
  Speaker 1: a tournament and suddenly you can find yourself in in
• 2:24:42
  Speaker 1: the biggest of the biggest. Of dances but enjoy. THESE matchups,
• 2:24:46
  Speaker 1: I mean i just think we're we're going To have
• 2:24:48
  Speaker 1: we're going to have as good Of an elite Eight and,
• 2:24:52
  Speaker 1: sweet sixteen and these are going to be high. LEVEL matchups,
• 2:24:58
  Speaker 1: i mean we are the the depth of this year's.
• 2:25:03
  Speaker 1: COLLEGE basketball I, Mean, Florida, Yukon, Houston, Arizona Duke. Saint john's,
• 2:25:18
  Speaker 1: YOU know, i look i'd love to SAY my I think.
• 2:25:21
  Speaker 1: Miami is i'm Really hoping miami gets a. Sixth SEED My,
• 2:25:25
  Speaker 1: gw colonials, You Know i'm i'd like to see them make.
• 2:25:29
  Speaker 1: A splash i think they're kind of running out of,
• 2:25:31
  Speaker 1: gas unfortunately but uh My Buddy chris capudo's had a.
• 2:25:38
  Speaker 1: Great season we are, you know we're not going to get,
• 2:25:41
  Speaker 1: twenty wins, but boy there there Are three there are
• 2:25:45
  Speaker 1: three or four wins sitting in that lost column THAT that,
• 2:25:47
  Speaker 1: i think, you know a bounce here or, bounce there
• 2:25:50
  Speaker 1: and maybe we're a twenty one win team and maybe
• 2:25:52
  Speaker 1: we're on the bubble on. That front and we came
• 2:25:55
  Speaker 1: within three points of beating the one team of the
• 2:25:57
  Speaker 1: eight ten that could make noise In The, interidet tournament
• 2:26:00
  Speaker 1: and That's The Saint. LOUIS billigans i bet you didn't
• 2:26:04
  Speaker 1: know That the atlantic ten stretched all the Way To,
• 2:26:06
  Speaker 1: saint louis but it. Does Right The atlantic ocean eventually
• 2:26:10
  Speaker 1: finds its way Into, the mississippi which is close Enough
• 2:26:13
  Speaker 1: To Saint. Louis university but, ENJOY this, I know. I
• 2:26:19
  Speaker 1: am this is an. Amazing weekend throw IN the WBC
• 2:26:22
  Speaker 1: and nfl, free AGENCY and i am getting a little
• 2:26:25
  Speaker 1: concerned about what my packers are. Up to a lot
• 2:26:27
  Speaker 1: of offensive linemen leaving the building waiting for the replenishment. Of, supplies,
• 2:26:34
  Speaker 1: here guys totally Understand The romeo, dobbs thing Understand the
• 2:26:38
  Speaker 1: gary trade less less sort of bought in on what's
• 2:26:43
  Speaker 1: happening on the. Offensive line getting very nervous here. About
• 2:26:47
  Speaker 1: that what was, you know it's been, a strength so we.
• 2:26:49
  Speaker 1: Shall see we've got a pretty deep, receiver room but
• 2:26:52
  Speaker 1: we have no first round draft pick. This Year That's
• 2:26:54
  Speaker 1: micah parsons that's sitting on the al. So concerned but the,
• 2:27:00
  Speaker 1: point is if you're looking to get distracted, by sports
• 2:27:05
  Speaker 1: this is an amazing weekend to distract yourself from the
• 2:27:09
  Speaker 1: horrors of what we're dealing with at the moment to
• 2:27:13
  Speaker 1: what is the euphoria and a lot of fun to
• 2:27:17
  Speaker 1: watch and look these guys may, get paid they, deserve
• 2:27:22
  Speaker 1: it and they still seem pretty excited. About it so enjoy,
• 2:27:25
  Speaker 1: The weekend enjoy The games i'll see in seventy. Two
• 2:27:28
  Speaker 1: hours