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Pride Before The Prattfall · Politix

• 0:00
  To be clear,
• 0:00
  I'm not going to vote for Grand Platner because that would be
• 0:03
  fraud.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: My father is going to vote for Grand Platner.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: You're right about this.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: You're definitely right about it.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_01: You have to consistently say, people should vote for me.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: This week,
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: we'll review the results of last week's California Jungle Primary,
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: who won,
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: who lost,
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: who's lying about the results,
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: and what the public response to that kind of lying should be.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: Then,
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: since we're recording this on Maine Primary Day,
• 0:36
  and Graham Plattner is heavily favored to become the Democratic
• 0:39
  Senate nominee
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: there,
• 0:41
  we'll pick up where we left off last week to review the most
• 0:44
  recent scandal
• 0:45
  allegations and just kind of lay out where we stand on the
• 0:48
  whole messy situation.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to hear the whole conversation,
• 0:51
  you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm Hello
• 0:59
  and welcome to the
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: Politics Podcast.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boitler.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Matthew Glacius.
• 1:05
  Did you stay up late to watch Donald Trump jinx the Knicks or
• 1:08
  something like that?
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: I did, yes.
• 1:12
  Um,
• 1:12
  I was,
• 1:13
  I was watching,
• 1:14
  I was consuming alcoholic beverages with friends.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: it's all highly recommended,
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: but I mean,
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: you and I have a,
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: a,
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: a drinking history together,
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: but you've become like such a teetotaler in your dad years that like,
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: yes,
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: the fact that you said beverages plural is very surprising.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: It was an anxiety provoking game.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: It did not end well.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: And, uh, you know, but we're here, we're back.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: We gotta get whoever did the election fraud in Los Angeles to work on the
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_01: officiating for the Knicks,
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: get us some better calls No,
• 1:47
  I don't know that that's right because whoever did the ballot
• 1:49
  rigging in LA is
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: doing it in a way that's counterproductive to the home team
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: Well, yeah.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_01: So this is this is the nuance here.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: So,
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:59
  the Democrats stole the election in Los Angeles and got they
• 2:03
  got Spencer Pratt
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: locked out of the final round.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_01: Now, those in the know are aware.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: Michael Schoen
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: She instead has to face a like a left Yimby kind of like Zorhan,
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: but not quite as slick opponent who's much tougher for her.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, it's a curious decision to steal the election in that way.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_01: But what you're supposed to say about this,
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: I was on I was on the Central Air podcast with Josh Barrow,
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: Megan McArdle,
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: Ben Dreyfuss,
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_01: and
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: The appropriate center-right view on this is you're supposed to say,
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_01: of course,
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_01: these conspiracy theories about election theft aren't true,
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: and they also don't make any sense logically.
• 3:03
  But you have to admit that California's slow ballot counting
• 3:07
  gives air to this.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't think that it does.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_01: There's no...
• 3:14
  Just as it doesn't make sense to allege that Karen Bass rigged
• 3:18
  the election in
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: favor of the person she was trying to beat,
• 3:21
  it also doesn't make sense to say that the count taking a week
• 3:25
  is what gave her the
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: opportunity to rig it.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_01: to whatever extent the people in charge can rig the election,
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: they can just rig it one way or the other.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: You can make up whatever you want if you're making stuff up,
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_01: especially if it's totally illogical.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_01: I agree that California should count ballots faster because...
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: It's just like a public service to count the ballot.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_01: For totally normal reasons.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_01: To me,
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: as somebody who does not do conspiracy theories,
• 3:53
  it is annoying that it took this long to confirm that Tom
• 3:57
  Steyer lost the election
• 3:58
  because I wanted to write an article about Tom Steyer losing
• 4:01
  the election at the
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  SPEAKER_01: time people were paying attention to California.
• 4:05
  Having this nine-day lag is stupid and it's annoying,
• 4:09
  but it is not causally responsible for
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  dipshit conspiracy theorists who are not constrained in their
• 4:19
  dipshittery.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: These are just unrelated issues.
• 4:23
  I think that there are more high-minded civic hygiene reasons
• 4:26
  for wanting to speed
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  SPEAKER_00: up vote counting in California.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: But my preferred libertarian,
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: Julian Sanchez,
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: pointed out on one of the apps yesterday that his dad...
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: had like fled Franco's Spain, I believe.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: And they were rigging elections there.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: And they did it very fast on purpose.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: Because if you're going to steal an election...
• 4:47
  You don't want to betray any kind of consciousness of guilt
• 4:51
  about what you're doing.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: You just go in and you take it, right?
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: So it doesn't make any sense on those terms.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: My understanding,
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  though I didn't fact check myself on this one or fact check
• 4:59
  what I read on this
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  SPEAKER_00: one,
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  SPEAKER_00: is that the statutes that create this logjam,
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: right?
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  So the logjam arises because California has both same-day
• 5:09
  registration and
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  SPEAKER_00: day-of-mail balloting.
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  So if you go get registered,
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  put your ballot in the mail,
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  and it gets registered.
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  SPEAKER_00: It gets stamped on election day.
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  That's a good ballot even if it takes seven days for the
• 5:24
  government to receive it
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: and then go through the process of verifying it and counting it.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: That's what produces the delay.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: Those laws were enacted back when Republicans controlled California.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: So it's not like
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: This is a democratic system.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: It was Arnold Schwarzenegger, right?
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, sure.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yes,
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_01: I don't want to be,
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  it's not like it was Ronald Reagan in the 60s when California
• 5:50
  was a red state.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_01: But yes, this was part of the whole clusterfuck.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: of California electoral processes,
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: which is both this top two system,
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: which is stupid,
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  SPEAKER_01: and this super late ballot system,
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  SPEAKER_01: which is also stupid.
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  These are both meant to be Schwarzenegger era good government
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  reforms that were
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  SPEAKER_01: intended to reduce
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  SPEAKER_01: Democratic Party machine control over the state of California.
• 6:14
  They simply did not achieve their stated goal and have these
• 6:18
  other downstream
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  SPEAKER_01: consequences that I think are bad.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_01: And like they legitimately ought to get...
• 6:23
  The actual worst thing about this slow count is that every
• 6:28
  presidential election year,
• 6:30
  right...
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_01: California is not important in the electoral college, right?
• 6:36
  So you could just mark that down as a win for Kamala Harris,
• 6:40
  like without counting any votes.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: So you start to get takes on the election outcomes.
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  SPEAKER_01: Long before the actual votes in California have been counted.
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  So you always get the day after the election a massive
• 6:55
  undercount of the popular
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  SPEAKER_01: vote for the Democrat.
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  So you start to lock in these narratives about falling base
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  turnout for Democrats and
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_01: way before we actually know what the turnout was,
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  SPEAKER_01: because everyone has to do their post-election takes really,
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  SPEAKER_01: really fast.
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  SPEAKER_01: And because unlike in the Steyer-Bissera race,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: it doesn't matter what the actual vote count in California is.
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  SPEAKER_01: We're not, like, sitting there waiting.
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  Well,
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  I think that's more importantly because I don't have any
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  control over
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  Any influence over MAGA-type people who just lie because
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  they're comfortable lying.
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  But I do hope I have some influence with people like Megan,
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  Josh,
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  and Ben.
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  SPEAKER_00: And this sort of like,
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  SPEAKER_00: well,
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  SPEAKER_00: everyone knows that there's something fishy about this,
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  SPEAKER_00: even if the conspiracy theories are fake,
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  SPEAKER_00: is just kind of running cover for the conspiracy theories,
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  SPEAKER_00: right?
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  Because narratives are important,
• 8:06
  takes are important,
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  they're my business.
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  SPEAKER_00: But the kinds of people who would...
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: on the day after election day,
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  SPEAKER_00: after presidential election,
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  SPEAKER_00: write a tape being like,
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: ooh,
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  SPEAKER_00: it looks like maybe enthusiasm is off for Democrats.
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  SPEAKER_00: Like that's a bad pundit.
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  SPEAKER_00: That's somebody who does not know what's happening in politics, right?
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  And even though they should do better and even though they
• 8:27
  might have a poisonous
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  impact on whatever fleeting narrative looms over the
• 8:33
  post-election period,
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  SPEAKER_00: like it's sort of irrelevant.
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  SPEAKER_00: I think that the good reasons are
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  If it's a primary,
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  you want to allow the winner to begin the general election
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  right away.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: If it's a general election,
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  you want the winner to know that they've won and be confident
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  in the results so
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  SPEAKER_00: that they can begin the transition process.
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  SPEAKER_00: They have an interest in it.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: Voters have an interest in it.
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  And like on that basis alone,
• 9:01
  it is worth just fixing this problem,
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  right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Then you can say also like MAGA assholes will lie about it.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so we should just steal this cudgel back from them.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's fine too.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: My concern is mostly just like not caving to blackmail, right?
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  Like this is a conversation that needs to be happening among
• 9:24
  people of good faith,
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  SPEAKER_00: which should include Josh and Ben and Megan to be like,
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: look,
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_00: forget that.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: Let's just fix this problem because
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's not serving any purpose and it's creating harm.
• 9:37
  But if the backdrop is the MAGA Republicans are lying about it
• 9:41
  and someone like
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: Megan is saying,
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: well,
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: yeah,
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  SPEAKER_00: they have a decent point there,
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  then I don't think you can just as a standalone matter change
• 9:53
  California election
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  SPEAKER_00: law to appease the fascists.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: And so it's this tangle, right?
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  I think that there are two ways out of it one is that
• 10:10
  Republicans need to stop
• 10:11
  lying about elections so that the cloud of election denial can
• 10:15
  be lifted and this
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  can just be undertaken as a regular good government initiative
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  I think the other
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  SPEAKER_00: way to do it is to say
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_00: We recognize that there are separate,
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: legitimate concerns here,
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  SPEAKER_00: and we're going to address those.
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  But we are also going to change California election law to say
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  that if you lie
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  SPEAKER_00: about elections,
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  SPEAKER_00: you're disqualified from seeking state office here in California.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_00: So let me ask you.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_01: Isn't this like a free speech issue?
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  SPEAKER_01: I don't approve of lying,
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_01: especially about elections,
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_01: especially in the course of a political campaign.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_01: But this is a free country, man.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_01: People lie about stuff all the time.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_01: Can you really make a law that says people aren't allowed to lie?
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, there are laws already that say people aren't allowed to lie.
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  And I suppose that if this was a free speech absolutist country
• 11:11
  where there was
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  SPEAKER_00: literally nothing you could say that the law could touch you for,
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: then there would be a problem.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: But we have laws on the books.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: And I need to say that like the...
• 11:21
  The big ideas here come from foreign countries and the former
• 11:26
  federal prosecutor
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: who worked for Robert Mueller and the FBI,
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: Andrew Weissman,
• 11:30
  has just written a book based on his research on how they
• 11:33
  handled this situation in
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: foreign countries.
• 11:37
  And he sort of borrowed from them and then tried to retrofit it
• 11:42
  so that it passes
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: muster under the First Amendment.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_00: And the basic idea is that free speech protections don't allow you to
• 11:51
  lie to shareholders about a company's profitability because
• 11:54
  that's fraud.
• 11:55
  And they don't allow you to lie to cops or Congress about the
• 12:00
  factual matter of
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: something under investigation because that's obstruction of justice.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_00: And there are ways to construct
• 12:08
  laws that govern specifically the people who seek elections to
• 12:14
  penalize them if
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_00: they lie about,
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: I guess,
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: technically anything.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: Although the broader you get,
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: like if somebody lies about an affair and you disqualify them,
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: then you're starting to get into murky territory.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: But if they lie about an election result,
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_00: that is very analogous to a fraud,
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: like a defrauding the public kind of situation.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: And so the nature of the law would be
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: You can shitpost about elections all you want.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: But if you then decide to run for office in California,
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: if it's a state law or Congress,
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_00: if it's a federal law,
• 12:48
  there will be a process and you will be disqualified from the
• 12:52
  ballot if a civil
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: jury...
• 12:55
  finds that you attempted to deceive the public about the rules
• 12:58
  of elections,
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_00: about the outcomes of elections.
• 13:03
  And that is your incentive to stop following in Trump's
• 13:10
  footsteps and treating
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_00: every defeat as prima facie evidence that Democrats are cheating.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I think that that is airtight as a logical and legal argument.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: We obviously have a very Republican heavy judiciary.
• 13:29
  And so I can't obviously promise that if Democrats in
• 13:32
  California did this,
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: that Republicans wouldn't sue,
• 13:36
  and that it wouldn't eventually get to the US Supreme Court and
• 13:38
  that the Robert Six
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: wouldn't strike it down.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: But they have upheld
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: A revised version,
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: amended version of a law called the Stolen Valor Act,
• 13:49
  which is intended to discourage public figures from lying about
• 13:54
  military service.
• 13:55
  And like we obviously have a much greater interest in
• 13:58
  preventing politicians from
• 13:59
  lying about election results than we have in penalizing like
• 14:04
  Dick Blumenthal for
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: saying he was in Vietnam rather than that he served during Vietnam,
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_00: Like that he shouldn't have done that for
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: It seems like he probably did it on purpose.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_00: He says he didn't.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: But life goes on.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_00: It's not the biggest fucking deal in the world.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_00: But what Trump is doing is the biggest deal in the world.
• 14:22
  And Democrats have limited themselves to tutting and tisking
• 14:27
  instead of trying to
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_00: really establish deterrence against it.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: And Newsom, who likes to fight, could, I think, establish deterrence
• 14:37
  for the subset of MAGA election liars who happen to live in
• 14:40
  California and might
• 14:42
  someday want to run for city council or mayor or state
• 14:47
  legislature or governor,
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think Steve Hilton, it's too late to stop him.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: He's an election denier.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: But California Democrats could make this his last election.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I like this idea.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: I want to say,
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_01: though,
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: I do think you should pair this with trying to address people's,
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_01: not like legitimate concern about the integrity of the slow count,
• 15:10
  but just legitimate frustration with this very unusual election
• 15:14
  procedure.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_01: If I was Gavin Newsom, I would just say- Do both together.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: I did not create this late mail in ballot system.
• 15:23
  My predecessor,
• 15:25
  Jerry Brown,
• 15:26
  did not create this late mail in ballot system.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: Jerry Brown also didn't create it the previous time that he was governor.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_01: Like this was Arnold Schwarzenegger's idea.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_01: It has not,
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 15:37
  worked well It's not how other places vote around the world And
• 15:42
  I don't think we
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: should do it like this And also,
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_01: we cannot have the,
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_01: basic soundness of our electoral system constantly under attack You know,
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_01: because,
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_01: this Hilton thing
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_01: is the height of absurdity.
• 15:56
  Because in the governor's race,
• 15:58
  we got the opposite outcome to the LA mayor's race.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_01: The mainstream establishment Democratic candidate,
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_01: Becerra,
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_01: got the outcome from round one that he wanted,
• 16:10
  which is that he is going to face a Republican in the second
• 16:13
  round rather than Tom
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_01: Steyer.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_01: Javier Becerra can beat Steve Hilton in his sleep in a general election.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: Beating Steyer in a second round election,
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_01: I think he would beat Steyer pretty handily,
• 16:27
  but he would have to weather hundreds of millions of dollars in
• 16:31
  attack ads.
• 16:32
  He would need to spend a lot of time raising money,
• 16:35
  rallying mainstream media.
• 16:36
  He has spared himself all kinds of trouble by facing a
• 16:43
  Republican opponent in the second round.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: But then because Hilton is a Republican,
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: and it's conventional of Republicans to lie about election outcomes,
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: he's
• 16:52
  lying about this LA thing which is the exact same structural
• 16:55
  situation in which
• 16:56
  like the election wasn't rigged and it's just bad for Bass that
• 17:01
  she doesn't get to
• 17:01
  run against Spencer Pratt like she's now got a real problem in
• 17:05
  the second round
• 17:06
  where like she has to deal with a leftist opponent who has some
• 17:10
  Yimby cred and you
• 17:11
  know can sort of hit her from both sides and be the change
• 17:15
  agent like blah blah
• 17:15
  blah blah blah I mean I feel like I feel like the crooked media
• 17:18
  guys are just gonna
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_00: make Raman Mayer
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see what happens.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think there's a...
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, there is a...
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 17:30
  There's a lot of people who want to find out how to get ramen
• 17:33
  over the top here.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: She's got to...
• 17:37
  I really recommend my former intern Mark Novikov's article on
• 17:41
  the L.A.
• 17:42
  Mayor's race.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 17:46
  It's kind of like a weird Venn diagram of where the three of
• 17:50
  these candidates
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_01: position themselves.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_01: So it's like Bass has completely floundered on basic governance and...
• 18:01
  Yet neither Pratt nor Raman has like created the like
• 18:05
  integrated like reasonable
• 18:07
  critique of this and now we'll see if Raman in the second round
• 18:11
  can get some some
• 18:12
  of that like maybe all of downtown Los Angeles should not be
• 18:15
  crawling with drug
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_01: addicts energy.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_01: It's really weird.
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_01: Downtown LA is super cool, I want to say.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_01: Like, I am not a hater.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_01: But,
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: it does have all these,
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 18:27
  vacant lots where you could build housing without dealing with
• 18:30
  all kinds of,
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_01: NIMBY issues.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: But, like, there really are just, like, I don't know.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_01: People passed out in the streets everywhere.
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_01: It's not good.
• 18:39
  Is there any way for Nitya Raman to pull,
• 18:42
  like,
• 18:42
  a Jaime Talarico and,
• 18:44
  like,
• 18:44
  start having...
• 18:47
  I was suggesting that Gina Raimondo should consider rebranding
• 18:58
  as Gina Raimondo and
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_01: be the Latino candidate in the 28 primaries.
• 19:04
  She was not as warm to that suggestion when I pitched her on it
• 19:07
  as I was hoping.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, you actually asked that.
• 19:10
  Some people are very persnickety about these things like their
• 19:13
  ethnic identity and so on.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_01: I just met her one time.
• 19:17
  We talked briefly about Costco and then I went directly into
• 19:22
  rebranded as Hispanic mode.
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, she's a good politician.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_01: She wasn't kidding around with strangers about this.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_01: She was being very serious.
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_01: we talked about this a little bit last week,
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_01: but I think with like a week of vote counting,
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_01: to call it,
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like this is the,
• 19:43
  that Becerra versus Hilton is the better outcome for
• 19:48
  down-ballot Democrats in
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: California.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think, real quick to round it out though, I think the point-
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_00: You started to make,
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_00: but then maybe we got sidetracked,
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_00: was that,
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 19:59
  it's not literally the same ballot because the governor's race
• 20:02
  is statewide and the
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: LA mayor's race is just LA proper.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: But, like...
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: It was the same election, right?
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, why would you rig them in opposite directions?
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_01: Right, exactly.
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_00: That's retarded.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_00: You're about to make the counter case,
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: but the savvy,
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 20:20
  Democratic view on this is that it's fine to waste all that
• 20:24
  money in a Becerra
• 20:25
  versus Steyer race because the down-ballot effects might help
• 20:29
  you elect two or
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_00: three more Democrats to Congress,
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_00: which could be really important.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_00: You're going to make the opposite case, though.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, I agree.
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_01: It's baffling.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_01: So I did want to talk because we were discussing this and like,
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_01: I was discussing with my team,
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_01: etc.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, there was a question for like,
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_01: People,
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_01: there's a bunch of House races in California,
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_01: some of which are,
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_01: fairly competitive.
• 21:02
  And it's a question of,
• 21:02
  you know,
• 21:03
  what's better for down-ballot Democrats?
• 21:06
  Would they benefit from locking Republicans out of the
• 21:08
  governor's election so
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_01: there's no,
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_01: Hilton coattails to help lift Republicans up?
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_01: Or do they benefit more from a kind of a unified...
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: campaign.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think after sort of seeing the reaction to Steyer's defeat,
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: where,
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: a bunch of random California politicians,
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_01: the Speaker of the House,
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_01: down-ballot people were like,
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_01: it's time to unify around our nominee,
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_01: Javier Becerra.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like that's better.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's like a better outcome.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_01: There was going to be a big financial drain
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_01: in running a Becerra versus Steyer race.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_01: And the competition between the two of them was getting like quite nasty,
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_01: in the way that primaries sometimes do and sometimes don't get.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_01: And
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_01: I just feel like because the maps have been redrawn,
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_01: winning these races in California is not that hard.
• 22:04
  It's not this situation where you have Republican incumbents in
• 22:08
  R plus three states
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: and districts and Democrats are really trying to win in a reach.
• 22:13
  The whole point of redrawing the map was it's pretty simple
• 22:17
  downhill skiing for the
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_01: Democratic candidates to win.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_01: Becerra is not...
• 22:35
  It's kind of funny choice for like California's man of destiny
• 22:39
  since it seems like
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_01: there are no Becerra super fans anywhere except maybe Nancy Pelosi.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_01: But, you know, he's going to be the governor.
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_01: He's going to lead California Democrats to a bunch of down ballot wins.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 22:54
  I don't know what he'll like do about the public policy issues
• 22:57
  of the state of
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_01: California,
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_01: but like it's probably fine.
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_00: So I think,
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 23:02
  I have very weakly held opinions about this because I don't
• 23:06
  live in California
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_00: anymore.
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_00: And I like neither Becerra nor Steyer send a thrill up my legs.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_00: So it's like, whatever.
• 23:13
  I think that the missing piece of your analysis is it's not
• 23:17
  just that you deny
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans the Hilton coattails.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_00: It said if you get a really nasty race between Steyer and Becerra,
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_00: you get a really juiced Democratic turnout because people who are super
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_00: anti-Becerra are going to make sure to go vote for Steyer.
• 23:32
  And people who are super anti-Steyer are going to make sure to
• 23:35
  go vote for Becerra.
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_00: And at the polls, they will then also vote down ballot for Democrats.
• 23:40
  And so it works in both directions to boost vote totals for
• 23:45
  Democratic candidates
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_00: and suppress vote totals for Republican candidates.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that that...
• 23:51
  SPEAKER_00: Somebody could do that analysis.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_00: I can't do it.
• 23:53
  But I wouldn't be surprised if a projection estimated that this
• 24:04
  could give
• 24:05
  Democrats two or three extra seats that they weren't
• 24:08
  necessarily sure to win.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think I'm still in the like, it would have been slightly better.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_00: for Steyer to have locked Tilton out.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_00: We didn't get that.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_01: I went to my top data guys and I said,
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_01: guys,
• 24:25
  does it help Democrats when there's a lockout in the California
• 24:28
  governor's race?
• 24:29
  And they said,
• 24:29
  Matt,
• 24:29
  there's never been a lockout in the California governor's race.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_01: There is no data about this.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_01: No, no, no.
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_00: You just have to make something up.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: No, no, no, no, no.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why I made something up.
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_00: No, no, no, no, no.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: I just want to clarify.
• 24:40
  There have been past elections,
• 24:42
  not necessarily in California,
• 24:44
  where you have
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_00: Two candidates from the same party in a general election.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_00: And you go look at those elections and like what are the turnout effects?
• 24:52
  Like if you get a really heated factional fight between two
• 24:56
  candidates of the same
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_00: party in a general election,
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_00: how does it affect the down ballot of the other party?
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's a doable thing.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_00: In fact,
• 25:03
  the truth is I think I could run the analysis if I wasn't
• 25:06
  spending all my time
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_00: writing as opposed to number crunching.
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_00: But like my hypothesis is that it would have helped
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_00: A small number of down-ballot Democrats,
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_00: but since Republicans have stolen so many House seats,
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: those might be important.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_00: It would have been better.
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_00: However,
• 25:24
  there's a silver lining because Hilton advancing helps heighten
• 25:28
  the absurdity of
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_00: this election theft lie.
• 25:32
  and I just really think that it would be a really good
• 25:37
  opportunity for Democrats to
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_00: right now say,
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_00: look,
• 25:41
  we should have taken care of this election line problem after
• 25:44
  we beat Donald Trump
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_00: the first time.
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_00: Instead,
• 25:46
  we let him get away and then he mounted a comeback and now he's
• 25:49
  trying to destroy
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_00: democracy in the United States.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_00: But in California, we're not going to allow it.
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_00: We can actually...
• 25:57
  Make it so that any Republican in the state who chooses to lie
• 25:59
  about elections just
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_00: can't become an officeholder here.
• 26:03
  And that means millions and millions and millions of
• 26:05
  Republicans are going to stop
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_00: lying about elections.
• 26:07
  And then my hope is that Governor Pritzker will pass a similar
• 26:11
  law or sign a
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: similar law in Illinois.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_00: and Governor,
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_00: the one we always forget in Oregon,
• 26:17
  will do the same in Washington and on and on and on until all
• 26:21
  16 Democratic
• 26:22
  trifectas have laws on the books that basically say we do not
• 26:25
  elect people who lie
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_00: about elections in the state.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_00: And,
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_00: then you get the next round,
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_00: which is Republicans saying,
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_00: but wait,
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_00: we need to stand up for our right to lie about elections,
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_00: which I think would be a nice fight for Democrats to have.
• 26:40
  and then Republicans in the Supreme Court have to decide
• 26:42
  whether they want to
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_00: create a special exception.
• 26:45
  You can't lie about money and you can't lie about criminal
• 26:50
  investigations,
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_00: but you can lie about elections if you think it'll help you steal power.
• 26:55
  And I think that they would probably throw out these laws on
• 26:58
  those grounds.
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_00: And then you have yet more grist for like the,
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 27:02
  increasingly obvious case that if and when Democrats ever
• 27:05
  regain full power in
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_00: Washington,
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_00: they just need to
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_00: dilute the power of these justices.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_01: So the governor of Oregon is Tina Kotak.
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_00: I was going to say, I was getting the pronunciation backwards in my head.
• 27:20
  SPEAKER_01: There's also a Washington governor, Bob Ferguson.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_01: I knew that one.
• 27:24
  SPEAKER_01: Formerly a terrorist with the French 75.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_01: It's kind of a fascinating late-life political development for him.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_01: That's a movie.
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_01: That's one battle after another.
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_00: So...
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think this is a good idea.
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go for it.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_01: Let's cook.
• 27:42
  Let's do a Boitler-Iglesias joint push to get these governors
• 27:48
  or like Ken Martin.
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_00: Ken Martin can encourage the governors.
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_01: Ken Martin Redemption Act.
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, he wants to save his own.
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_01: Ken, you need something.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_00: Should we talk about Graham Plattner?
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_01: One of the best.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_01: Let's take a break.
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_00: Alright,
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_00: if you want to hear us discuss a different Democrat,
• 28:11
  SPEAKER_00: go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.