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Why are workers feeling so stuck in their jobs? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: Face is the Financial Exchange with Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane.
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Speaker 2: Good morning, Welcome back to the Financial Exchange. It's a
1:17
Speaker 2: Jobs Tuesday here on the Financial Exchange. We'll get the
1:20
Speaker 2: big Jobs report on Friday of this week, but this
1:24
Speaker 2: morning at ten am, just six minutes ago, we did
1:27
Speaker 2: receive the Joltz Report. That's the job Opening's labor turnover
1:30
Speaker 2: survey that we get monthly, so we'll be diving in there.
1:34
Speaker 2: And that's all ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting which
1:36
Speaker 2: is coming up on the eighteenth of December, with some
1:40
Speaker 2: board members commenting on the potential direction of interest rates
1:44
Speaker 2: as we go there. It's Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane
1:46
Speaker 2: and Tucker Silva with you on this Tuesday morning where
1:50
Speaker 2: we open up with markets mixed again for the second
1:53
Speaker 2: day in the row, SMP flat, NAZAC up slightly, Dow
1:56
Speaker 2: down slightly, and let's jump right in, Paul to the
2:00
Speaker 2: upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, because that's where eyes are finally
2:04
Speaker 2: starting to return to right. We've had I think November
2:09
Speaker 2: was the month of Trump presidency digestion, and everyone the
2:14
Speaker 2: only thing they wanted to talk about was how is
2:16
Speaker 2: it going to work, tariffs, taxes, regulation, what's going to happen,
2:21
Speaker 2: you know, is capital one going to be allowed to
2:24
Speaker 2: buy discover financial what's going to happen with the banking sector,
2:27
Speaker 2: what's going to happen with electric vehicles, and everything in between.
2:30
Speaker 2: That will all continue, but I think a lot of
2:33
Speaker 2: those trades have now played out and it's back to
2:35
Speaker 2: the fundamentals of what's the Fed going to do, what's
2:37
Speaker 2: the job market looking like, what's inflation looking like?
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Speaker 3: And that's normal, healthy and a good thing.
2:44
Speaker 2: We don't need to spend all of our time trying
2:46
Speaker 2: to figure out what laws Donald Trump's presidency and Congress
2:50
Speaker 2: is going to pass under him.
2:51
Speaker 4: There's only so many times you can go through a
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Speaker 4: segment and say, we'll see, you know, how this plays out,
2:56
Speaker 4: or we'll wait for further details. And we really exhausted that.
3:00
Speaker 4: We you know, the collective financial commentary industry exhausted that
3:04
Speaker 4: as much as possible. And there's that significant period where
3:07
Speaker 4: it's about what's a two months to the day from
3:10
Speaker 4: the election results to inauguration, where you just have a
3:14
Speaker 4: lot of time to kill and sort of banter about policies.
3:17
Speaker 4: So it's nice to see on the financial presses that
3:20
Speaker 4: we read and digest so consistently that the topic has
3:23
Speaker 4: skewed back to kind of normal month to month affairs
3:27
Speaker 4: of jobs reports, inflation, and FED meetings. Those are kind
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Speaker 4: of the crux of the economy that we're focused on
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Speaker 4: right now.
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Speaker 2: So let's jump right in there on the Federal Reserve piece,
3:36
Speaker 2: because there's a few pieces out there this morning, but
3:39
Speaker 2: a few different ways of looking at guesses and bets
3:44
Speaker 2: and insinuations about the Federal Reserve's next moves are indicating
3:47
Speaker 2: another rate cut come December. You've got the dollar dipping
3:51
Speaker 2: a bit after surging on again some of that Trump
3:55
Speaker 2: trade rhetoric on tariffs and things along those lines. You've
3:58
Speaker 2: got money markets betting on a cut. What is the
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Speaker 2: Chicago Mercantile Exchange looking like? Now? This is where we
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Speaker 2: source data on how bets are being placed at the
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Speaker 2: CME on what the Feds to do next fall.
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Speaker 4: So where we've sat here from September is about seventy
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Speaker 4: five basis points of cuts have gone on thus far
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Speaker 4: from where we began earlier in the fall. Looking at
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Speaker 4: the most upcoming meeting, which will be December eighteenth, There
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Speaker 4: now is a seventy four percent probability, according to the
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Speaker 4: CME Group, that the Fed will cut by another twenty
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Speaker 4: five basis points, making it a full percentage cut. From
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Speaker 4: the beginning of September when they endeavored down this rate
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Speaker 4: cutting cycle. That percentage was as low as fifty five
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Speaker 4: percent on Monday, So that has ticked up a little
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Speaker 4: bit here, largely off the backs of commentary from the
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Speaker 4: Fed's Governor, Christopher wall In which we'll get into in
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Speaker 4: a moment here, But it does seem like all indications
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Speaker 4: at this point indicate that there is going to be
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Speaker 4: a cut for this upcoming meet in December. Now, if
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Speaker 4: you go out a little further on the meeting count unders,
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Speaker 4: when you scrutinize January or March of twenty twenty five
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Speaker 4: those meetings, it's less clear that there will be continued
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Speaker 4: cuts at this pace that we've seen, you know, since
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Speaker 4: the beginning of September.
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Speaker 2: Here, Yeah, I think the main narrative to understand about
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Speaker 2: interest rates since the election is that there has been
5:17
Speaker 2: a change in assumptions pretty significantly. Sorry, I need to
5:23
Speaker 2: think that through a little bit, but change in assumptions
5:25
Speaker 2: pretty significantly towards the upside on growth and potential upside
5:30
Speaker 2: on inflation. That's been the if you read through the
5:34
Speaker 2: real Trump trade, as we've talked about it here. Equity
5:36
Speaker 2: markets have obviously surged a good five to six percent
5:39
Speaker 2: since the election, but interest rates have two. And so
5:42
Speaker 2: if you're trying to read the tea leaves here, what
5:44
Speaker 2: investors seem to be digesting and assuming is that a
5:46
Speaker 2: Trump administration compared to a Harris administration means lower taxes,
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Speaker 2: less regulation, more growth. I think for the economy, that's
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Speaker 2: what you need to take away. And with those factors
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Speaker 2: higher tariffs, high growth, less regulation, lower taxes, you have
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Speaker 2: that possibility of higher inflation. And so when we look
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Speaker 2: across the board right, whether you're looking at January February
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Speaker 2: rate cuts, where we're fast forwarding all the way out
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Speaker 2: to June of next year, the probability that rates are
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Speaker 2: substantially lower than they are now has decreased. It is
6:21
Speaker 2: less probable that rates are coming down substantially over the
6:24
Speaker 2: next six to nine months as that was priced in
6:27
Speaker 2: for say a Biden two point zero administration through a
6:31
Speaker 2: potential Harris. So that's where things stand from the federal
6:35
Speaker 2: Reserve's perspective, probably not going to change their path in December,
6:37
Speaker 2: because quite honestly, the water is pretty muddy right now.
6:42
Speaker 2: You've had the hurricanes that disrupted the October jobs report.
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Speaker 2: I expect on Friday, when we receive the November jobs
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Speaker 2: report that you'll see some snap back in job creation
6:54
Speaker 2: come November, just you know, returning to a more normal
6:57
Speaker 2: degree of all of that. For a frame of reference, here,
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Speaker 2: in the month of September, you saw two hundred and
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Speaker 2: twenty three thousand jobs created. In the month of October,
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Speaker 2: you saw only twelve thousand net jobs created. We've been
7:11
Speaker 2: running averages probably in the one hundred and fifty to
7:13
Speaker 2: two hundred thousand range over the course of this year,
7:16
Speaker 2: and so obviously the October report was abysmal and was
7:20
Speaker 2: pretty easily explained by hurricanes. But frankly, if you saw
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Speaker 2: a snapback of three hundred thousand jobs created in November,
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Speaker 2: I don't think the FED would even look at that
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Speaker 2: and say, oh, watch out, we're heading for inflation.
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Speaker 3: They would probably just look at that and say, well,
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Speaker 3: this could.
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Speaker 2: Be a serge in demand for labor, or it could
7:36
Speaker 2: just be that those jobs that didn't get filled because
7:41
Speaker 2: of hurricanes in October are getting filled in November, and
7:44
Speaker 2: so let's not do anything about it.
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Speaker 4: Right. You had that, plus you had the machine of
7:47
Speaker 4: strike at Boweling that contributed to those numbers from the
7:50
Speaker 4: October report as well. So there was a couple different
7:53
Speaker 4: factors in play there. You have a labor market which
7:57
Speaker 4: we continue to sort of scrutinize the sea where it's sits.
8:00
Speaker 4: And then you also have though an economy in general
8:03
Speaker 4: from a GDP perspective, that has been growing really strongly.
8:06
Speaker 4: We came in at Q three GDP growth of two
8:09
Speaker 4: point eight percent, and so when you look at the
8:12
Speaker 4: Federal Reserve and some of these concerns that Mike was
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Speaker 4: alluding to, this idea that perhaps this inflation could stoke
8:18
Speaker 4: up or the idea of just consistent rate cuts marching
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Speaker 4: on through twenty twenty five.
8:23
Speaker 3: Has been paused.
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Speaker 4: Is because you have a strong economy growing at two
8:27
Speaker 4: point eight percent for the third quarter. Consumer spending has
8:30
Speaker 4: been there. If you look at the GDP numbers, the
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Speaker 4: only argument or caveat is continues to be that labor market,
8:37
Speaker 4: really where does it sit? And it seems like we're
8:40
Speaker 4: going to come out of the jobs report on Friday. Likely,
8:44
Speaker 4: I'm sure, Mike, because you're gonna have one absolute disastrous
8:46
Speaker 4: month of data that was easily explainable, and then to
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Speaker 4: your point, we could have another month from the month
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Speaker 4: of November that could look tremendous, but it could be
8:54
Speaker 4: all that muddying just because of the hurricanes and those
8:57
Speaker 4: one off impacts that we talked about.
8:59
Speaker 2: Taking a look at it market interest rates, We've got
9:01
Speaker 2: the yield on the ten year Treasury sitting at four
9:03
Speaker 2: point one eight six percent today, largely flat. Awaiting again
9:08
Speaker 2: more of this economic data as well as commentary from
9:11
Speaker 2: Federal Reserve speeches today. The yield on the thirty year
9:14
Speaker 2: fixed rate mortgage, according to Mortgage News Daily as of yesterday,
9:18
Speaker 2: sitting at six point nine one percent. That's up from
9:21
Speaker 2: a recent.
9:22
Speaker 3: Low of.
9:26
Speaker 4: Six point one.
9:27
Speaker 2: Six one six one five somewhere in that range back
9:30
Speaker 2: in September. The average rate according to Bank Rate for
9:34
Speaker 2: auto loans, the average auto loan interest rate for new
9:37
Speaker 2: cars in the second quarter of twenty four was sitting
9:40
Speaker 2: at six point eight four percent. Keep in mind that
9:43
Speaker 2: was second quarter of twenty four, so this data is
9:46
Speaker 2: a little bit outdated at this point and on used
9:51
Speaker 2: cars right now. If you have the highest credit the
9:54
Speaker 2: average indust rates sitting at seven point three percent, those
9:59
Speaker 2: very into the high teens in low twenties.
10:01
Speaker 3: If you are below.
10:02
Speaker 2: Average credit scores, let's take a quick break. When we
10:05
Speaker 2: come back, want to dive into this new Joltz report
10:09
Speaker 2: as well as this recent survey was the done of
10:12
Speaker 2: twenty thousand US workers and their satisfaction on the job.
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Speaker 2: Will be covering the labor market next.
10:19
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Speaker 2: Paul, I want to talk a little bit about the
11:21
Speaker 2: state of the labor market right now, because according to
11:24
Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal Journal, a recent study that was
11:26
Speaker 2: done by Gallup showed that more than half of the
11:29
Speaker 2: twenty thousand US workers whom they surveyed in November said
11:33
Speaker 2: they were watching for or actively seeking a new job.
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Speaker 2: That is the largest share since twenty fifteen. And mark's
11:42
Speaker 2: a pretty significant change compared to where we were with
11:46
Speaker 2: this labor market over the last few years. And I
11:51
Speaker 2: actually think that this makes a lot of sense in
11:55
Speaker 2: terms of how people are responding to surveys, because the
11:58
Speaker 2: way that I would describe this labor market right now
12:02
Speaker 2: is healthy but stagnant. I think that's kind of how
12:07
Speaker 2: I would describe it as you're not seeing a big
12:10
Speaker 2: spike in unemployment, you're not seeing big layoffs, but you're
12:14
Speaker 2: also not seeing much churn in terms of the labor market.
12:17
Speaker 2: We talked about a report that came out at ten
12:19
Speaker 2: am this morning, the Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey. It
12:23
Speaker 2: does exactly that. It tries to indicate to you how
12:26
Speaker 2: much churn is there in the labor market, how quickly
12:29
Speaker 2: are people finding new jobs, separating from service quitting, getting hired,
12:34
Speaker 2: those types of statistics. It is also pretty useful for
12:37
Speaker 2: determining some degree of the tightness of the labor market.
12:40
Speaker 2: Right when we talk about that ratio from a few
12:42
Speaker 2: years ago where there were two jobs open for every
12:45
Speaker 2: one person looking for work. We get that from the
12:48
Speaker 2: JOLT survey too. But what I'm kind of concluding here is,
12:51
Speaker 2: so naming the numbers here, the job openings, we're sitting
12:55
Speaker 2: at seven point seven million. That was unchanged from the
12:58
Speaker 2: previous month. Hires changed very little, sitting at five point
13:02
Speaker 2: three million. Separations was a little changed at also five
13:06
Speaker 2: point three million. Quits rate three point three million. It increased,
13:10
Speaker 2: but layoffs and discharges didn't really move.
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Speaker 3: And you know, an important measure.
13:15
Speaker 2: That I like to look at is the rate at
13:18
Speaker 2: which people are leaving their job. So total separations as
13:23
Speaker 2: a percentage of the overall labor force was sitting at
13:26
Speaker 2: three point three percent, and it was the third month
13:28
Speaker 2: in a row where the total separations rate was sitting
13:32
Speaker 2: at three point three percent. And for some context here
13:36
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two, when we
13:38
Speaker 2: talk about those really hot labor markets, you were sitting
13:41
Speaker 2: at you know, three nine to four two. So we're
13:45
Speaker 2: not talking about like fifteen percent separations rate, but a
13:49
Speaker 2: move of that magnitude is significantly higher. If you go back,
13:54
Speaker 2: and this is the comparison that we've been making a
13:56
Speaker 2: lot about the labor market of the last few months,
13:58
Speaker 2: if you go back to the twenty tens and try
13:59
Speaker 2: and find that similar labor market in terms of rate
14:02
Speaker 2: of separations, you're looking at twenty fourteen to twenty fifteen levels,
14:06
Speaker 2: which is the same thing as the ratio of unemployed
14:10
Speaker 2: to job openings. It's a number of these things where
14:13
Speaker 2: we're looking at and saying, hey, this economy is looking
14:17
Speaker 2: and feeling much more like the mid twenty tens, which
14:22
Speaker 2: for stock market investors wasn't a bad period of time,
14:25
Speaker 2: but for people looking for work and looking for raises
14:27
Speaker 2: and trying to get ahead in the labor market wasn't great, right,
14:31
Speaker 2: It was a challenging labor market, and so that's kind
14:34
Speaker 2: of where I'm landing with this is I'm not surprised
14:36
Speaker 2: that more than half of people are looking for a
14:38
Speaker 2: new job, and I'm not surprised that probably a lot
14:40
Speaker 2: of them are struggling to find that new job.
14:41
Speaker 4: Yeah, it does seem like there is this real sort
14:44
Speaker 4: of stasis in the labor market where the employers are
14:48
Speaker 4: really trying to retain employees because it's the cheapest way
14:51
Speaker 4: to do things. We've seen all sorts of business shocks
14:54
Speaker 4: of the course of the last three or four years,
14:56
Speaker 4: so there's this hesitancy from employers to layoff employees in
14:59
Speaker 4: case there is a surgeon demand. They want to make
15:01
Speaker 4: sure that they have the applicable staffing in place to
15:04
Speaker 4: meet that. And then on the employee side of things,
15:08
Speaker 4: you have employees who've been battling inflation and also a
15:13
Speaker 4: focus on a lot of their by their a lot
15:15
Speaker 4: of their employers to not over extend budgets. So it
15:18
Speaker 4: just has been sort of this keep things pat and
15:21
Speaker 4: not make any changes, and that's reflected by the quits
15:24
Speaker 4: right there. Some of the details as to why people
15:29
Speaker 4: are feeling more stuck on the job in this piece
15:31
Speaker 4: in the Wall Street Journal, mic, I don't know how
15:33
Speaker 4: much they contribute. They're saying, you know, more meetings, the
15:36
Speaker 4: messaging and things like that are leading people to feel
15:40
Speaker 4: like they're overwhelmed and burnout. To me, I don't really
15:44
Speaker 4: understand how the labor dynamics have shifted that dramatically post
15:49
Speaker 4: twenty twenty. All of this stuff with meetings and messaging,
15:52
Speaker 4: I just don't know how that's really changed. You know,
15:54
Speaker 4: the numbers, I get, the stress of finding a new job,
15:59
Speaker 4: I understand all that, But the reasons behind it, I
16:01
Speaker 4: think they're sort of just using the typical ones.
16:04
Speaker 3: I would agree.
16:05
Speaker 2: I think speaking of the labor market, the other point
16:09
Speaker 2: that I get made to me frequently from people is,
16:13
Speaker 2: so I've talked about, you know, hey, the Trump incoming
16:16
Speaker 2: Trump administration is going to probably have a tougher time
16:20
Speaker 2: igniting the labor market in the same way that they
16:23
Speaker 2: successfully did in twenty sixteen. And to give you a
16:26
Speaker 2: sense for this, when Donald Trump took office in twenty sixteen,
16:30
Speaker 2: the employment to population ratio for those that are aged
16:34
Speaker 2: twenty five to fifty four. If you're not working from
16:37
Speaker 2: twenty five to fifty four it's either because you're disabled
16:40
Speaker 2: or because I don't even you're laid off and you
16:43
Speaker 2: can't find work. Right, That's kind of how I look
16:46
Speaker 2: at this is this is the key working demographic. Most
16:49
Speaker 2: people are looking for work. Then when Donald Trump took office,
16:52
Speaker 2: that was sitting around seventy seven percent.
16:54
Speaker 3: By the time he.
16:54
Speaker 2: Left office right before COVID anyway, you know, end of
16:58
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, it got nearly as high as it's ever been,
17:02
Speaker 2: at about eighty point six percent of the population twenty
17:05
Speaker 2: five to fifty four working. That's higher than it ever
17:09
Speaker 2: was in the mid two thousands, you know, per your
17:12
Speaker 2: great recession, we only got to eighty point three percent.
17:15
Speaker 2: The only time that we've ever been higher than that
17:18
Speaker 2: was in the late nineties early two thousands. That is
17:20
Speaker 2: the only time in US history where the population of
17:23
Speaker 2: twenty five to fifty four year olds was more employed
17:26
Speaker 2: than the end of the first Trump presidency. Right now,
17:31
Speaker 2: were at eighty point six percent. It's exactly where we
17:33
Speaker 2: were when Donald Trump, you know, left, not didn't leave office,
17:37
Speaker 2: when when Donald Trump was running the economy prior to
17:40
Speaker 2: the to the COVID crisis. So I hear a lot
17:43
Speaker 2: about like, oh, well, you know, there's so many people
17:46
Speaker 2: just not working. They're sitting on their couches, they're not
17:48
Speaker 2: going to work. Well, maybe, you know, maybe there is
17:52
Speaker 2: another one to two percent of twenty five to fifty
17:55
Speaker 2: four year olds who can go get employed if the
17:57
Speaker 2: right efforts and incentive are there. But history would tell
18:02
Speaker 2: you otherwise. History would tell you that there's not very
18:05
Speaker 2: many other people there, even in the very best economies
18:08
Speaker 2: that we've seen. Right thinking about think about the economy
18:11
Speaker 2: at seven before the Great Financial Crisis, that thing was humming,
18:14
Speaker 2: people were working. Think about the economy over the last
18:18
Speaker 2: few years, the last few years of Trump administration, we
18:21
Speaker 2: have not been able to get this thing over eighty
18:23
Speaker 2: point six percent. And so that would be my point
18:25
Speaker 2: here is it is a stagnant labor market. There's not
18:28
Speaker 2: a lot of turnover. But there's also not, at least
18:33
Speaker 2: as far as I can tell, going to be a
18:35
Speaker 2: lot of ability to get millions more people into jobs
18:39
Speaker 2: come twenty twenty five, twenty twenty six, unless I'm dramatically
18:42
Speaker 2: missing something here.
18:43
Speaker 4: No, I mean, you have an unemployment rate that sits
18:45
Speaker 4: at four point one percent. The lowest we hit was
18:47
Speaker 4: three and a half.
18:48
Speaker 3: So Yeah, there.
18:49
Speaker 4: Isn't a lot of flexibility.
18:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, not a ton of slack to get this thing
18:55
Speaker 2: ramped back up in the other direction. And I just
18:59
Speaker 2: bring up that one because I think it is a
19:02
Speaker 2: better than the unemployment right, because people always doubt that
19:04
Speaker 2: that like, well, that person's not looking for work. No,
19:06
Speaker 2: this is looking at every person working compared to the
19:09
Speaker 2: entire population. And the only time we've been better than
19:13
Speaker 2: this was late nineties, early two thousands. I don't know,
19:16
Speaker 2: it's going to be challenging to turn that around. I
19:19
Speaker 2: want to take a quick break. We've got Wall Street
19:22
Speaker 2: Watch coming right up, and then I want to talk
19:24
Speaker 2: a little bit more about the labor market. Like I said,
19:26
Speaker 2: we've got this Job's report coming on Friday. Few other
19:29
Speaker 2: interesting pieces from this survey that I want to talk
19:31
Speaker 2: to you next on the Financial Exchange.
19:42
Speaker 1: Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter at
19:45
Speaker 1: TFE show. Breaking business news is always first right here
19:49
Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Time now for Wall
19:55
Speaker 1: Street Watch. A complete look at what's moving market so
19:58
Speaker 1: far today right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:03
Speaker 5: The markets are dipping into negative territory one day after
20:07
Speaker 5: the S and P five hundred notched a fresh record
20:10
Speaker 5: high as investors are reacting to the latest job openings data.
20:15
Speaker 5: Right now, the Dow is off by a third of
20:17
Speaker 5: a percent, or one hundred and forty five points, SMP
20:20
Speaker 5: five hundred is down by only nine points, and the
20:23
Speaker 5: Nasdaq is actually edging three points higher at the moment.
20:26
Speaker 5: Russell two thousand also off a third of a percent.
20:30
Speaker 5: Tenure Treasure reeled is flat at four point one to
20:33
Speaker 5: nine percent, and crude oil is up nearly two percent higher,
20:37
Speaker 5: trading at sixty nine dollars in thirty six cents a barrel.
20:41
Speaker 5: Shares in US Steal down by over nine percent after
20:44
Speaker 5: President elect Donald Trump reiterated last night that he will
20:49
Speaker 5: block the purchase of the steel maker by Japan's Nippon Steel,
20:53
Speaker 5: which was agreed upon in late twenty twenty three. Meanwhile,
20:56
Speaker 5: AT and T up by four percent after the The
21:00
Speaker 5: telecommunications company said it anticipates more than eighteen billion dollars
21:04
Speaker 5: in free cash flow in twenty twenty seven. AT and
21:07
Speaker 5: T laid out its three year vision this morning, which
21:10
Speaker 5: includes plans to double its fiber internet availability and enhance
21:15
Speaker 5: its five five G network. After its twenty nine percent
21:20
Speaker 5: gained yesterday's Shares in super micro Computer up another four
21:23
Speaker 5: percent today, following news yesterday that a special committee of
21:27
Speaker 5: the board of directors said have found no evidence of
21:30
Speaker 5: misconduct elsewhere. CBS Health was upgraded by Deutsche Bank to
21:34
Speaker 5: buy from hold, with the firm said it believes earnings
21:37
Speaker 5: will recover and top consensus estimates. CBS up by one percent.
21:43
Speaker 5: Zscaler narrowed its loss and posted higher quarterly revenue, but
21:47
Speaker 5: its current quarter forecast disappointed investors, sending shares in the
21:51
Speaker 5: cloud security company down by three percent. And after today's
21:55
Speaker 5: closing bell, we'll see third quarter earnings from Salesforce and
21:59
Speaker 5: oct On Tucker Silvan. That's Wall Street watch.
22:02
Speaker 2: So, Paul, before we move on from the labor market again,
22:04
Speaker 2: we had a jolt support this morning. We'll get a
22:08
Speaker 2: weekly unemployment claims report Thursday, followed by the big jobs
22:13
Speaker 2: report on Friday, and as we talked about to set
22:15
Speaker 2: the groundwork for that report, it's likely to be messy
22:19
Speaker 2: because October was messy due to hurricanes and November. You
22:22
Speaker 2: could very very likely see a snap back in terms
22:26
Speaker 2: of hiring. If you don't, that might indicate something else.
22:29
Speaker 2: But you know, let's say you had three to four
22:31
Speaker 2: hundred thousand jobs created. Even that would be a big,
22:33
Speaker 2: big number any other time of year, but then it,
22:36
Speaker 2: you know, for November, it wouldn't be.
22:37
Speaker 3: All that shocking.
22:39
Speaker 2: We had this survey here of people feeling stuck on
22:41
Speaker 2: the job and looking for work, and I think this
22:44
Speaker 2: is one area where I tend to see a lot
22:48
Speaker 2: of mistakes by people in terms of, Hey, if you
22:51
Speaker 2: want to maximize your compensation, one of the best things
22:55
Speaker 2: to look at. And it's definitely true that study after
22:59
Speaker 2: study have proven the best way to grow your compensation
23:03
Speaker 2: quickly is by hopping from one company to another. You
23:06
Speaker 2: tend to get bigger raises because there's an unknown there.
23:09
Speaker 2: There's an uncertainty. The new employer does not know how
23:12
Speaker 2: much you made in your previous job, and they're more
23:15
Speaker 2: likely to bid.
23:16
Speaker 3: Up on that type of thing.
23:18
Speaker 2: They're not familiar with your skill set, you were getting compensated,
23:21
Speaker 2: and so that's pretty logical in terms of how that works.
23:25
Speaker 2: So one of the mistakes I see is people refusing
23:28
Speaker 2: to look around because they get too comfortable. The other one, though,
23:30
Speaker 2: I think, is not properly understanding how much you actually
23:36
Speaker 2: make on a job.
23:37
Speaker 3: Believe it or not.
23:39
Speaker 2: There's some obvious pieces. Most people know their hourly rate.
23:43
Speaker 2: Most people know their annual compensation. A lot of people
23:47
Speaker 2: don't know how much over time they make in a year.
23:50
Speaker 2: A lot of people might not know how much bonus.
23:52
Speaker 2: And rarely do people actually know how much of their
23:55
Speaker 2: health insurance is covered by their employer, how much they're
23:58
Speaker 2: eligible for in terms of a bonus, how much their
24:01
Speaker 2: employer matches on a four oh one K or an HSA,
24:05
Speaker 2: or help with student loans. Sometimes employers offer things like
24:10
Speaker 2: profit sharing or company stock. Very rarely do I hear
24:13
Speaker 2: people properly utilizing that tool, right, Like, you know, you've
24:18
Speaker 2: talked to people all the time with restricted stock units
24:20
Speaker 2: or ISOs and all these types of things.
24:23
Speaker 3: And I think my.
24:25
Speaker 2: Takeaway is you should you know absolutely if you're dissatisfied
24:29
Speaker 2: in your job or if you're looking to make more money.
24:31
Speaker 2: One of the easiest ways to do that is by
24:33
Speaker 2: jumping from a different place and going and valuating that.
24:36
Speaker 2: But before you do it, you actually have to be
24:39
Speaker 2: educated on the subject.
24:40
Speaker 3: Right.
24:41
Speaker 2: You know, you jump from one job seventy to eighty
24:44
Speaker 2: thousand dollars in total compensation, that sounds great, Then you
24:47
Speaker 2: find out that your new employer doesn't cover nearly as
24:49
Speaker 2: much of your health insurance and doesn't provide a four
24:51
Speaker 2: to one k match, you might be making less on
24:54
Speaker 2: a net basis for your long term growth.
24:56
Speaker 3: Really important.
24:57
Speaker 4: I had a conversation with mccla who runs a company
25:01
Speaker 4: and covers one hundred percent healthcare covers full benefits, and
25:07
Speaker 4: heard he had an employee that was requesting a raise,
25:12
Speaker 4: and that was one of the pieces that he actually
25:14
Speaker 4: had me dig up and do some research. He knew
25:17
Speaker 4: that it was a tremendous benefit that he was offering,
25:19
Speaker 4: but he wanted to get a sense for you know,
25:21
Speaker 4: what is your company cover, what do others out there
25:23
Speaker 4: in Massachusetts cover? And you know it ranges from seventy
25:27
Speaker 4: eighty percent depending on your employer out there. So this
25:29
Speaker 4: one hundred percent benefit for a family, you're talking about
25:32
Speaker 4: thousands of dollars of benefit that someone can access. So
25:35
Speaker 4: all those things are really important to understand. Every company
25:39
Speaker 4: has their own bells and whistles, and it's helpful just
25:42
Speaker 4: to get a sense for looking else what else is
25:44
Speaker 4: out there? Are you underpaid overpaid? Doing that search, get
25:48
Speaker 4: a sense for what the market is for your services.
25:51
Speaker 4: And you could find yourself that maybe the grass isn't
25:54
Speaker 4: always greener on the other side when you do that search.
25:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, and people have been finding that recently, both where
25:59
Speaker 2: they are on the other side unfortunately recently. According to
26:03
Speaker 2: Bloomberg and Connor Sen, New York can show the US
26:06
Speaker 2: how to build more housing, will they, Paul.
26:09
Speaker 4: Doubtful, but I do I Connor Send does some really
26:13
Speaker 4: good pieces at Bloomberg. I think we've had him on
26:15
Speaker 4: the show before too, but really has some good context
26:19
Speaker 4: to the real estate industry in general and the trends
26:23
Speaker 4: in the different parts of the country. Sure, the Southeast
26:25
Speaker 4: is an area. The southeast and Southwest have been areas
26:28
Speaker 4: where we've seen a significant boom in construction over the
26:31
Speaker 4: course of the last couple of years. What has been
26:34
Speaker 4: consistent during that period is the Northeast being just absolutely
26:37
Speaker 4: atrocious in terms of its sluggishness on construction. And this
26:40
Speaker 4: dates back decades. Really, it's not even a phenomenon over
26:43
Speaker 4: the last four or five years. What he mentioned in
26:46
Speaker 4: this piece is the proposal that I believe is going
26:50
Speaker 4: to be signed into law later this month through New York,
26:52
Speaker 4: where eighty thousand housing units would be added through permits
26:57
Speaker 4: to add accessory dwelling unit on lots that were intended
27:01
Speaker 4: for one to two family, single family to too family
27:06
Speaker 4: residents out there. So basically, this idea that more duplexes
27:10
Speaker 4: and more triplexes would be built in certain areas of
27:12
Speaker 4: New York a big initiative to do yimby instead of nimby.
27:18
Speaker 4: So yes in my backyard rather than not in my backyard.
27:21
Speaker 4: But you can, you know, change the zoning restrictions and stuff,
27:25
Speaker 4: but it's not always a home run in order to
27:29
Speaker 4: have more housing construction.
27:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'll just tell you. I think that there
27:33
Speaker 2: are some things that are going to work pretty well.
27:35
Speaker 2: But unless areas are really willing to take the carrot
27:39
Speaker 2: and stick approach, I just don't see it happening in
27:43
Speaker 2: the Northeast. So I'll give you a recent example. The
27:45
Speaker 2: carrot and stick approach has been attempted here in Massachusetts.
27:48
Speaker 2: I would argue without a big enough carrot or stick
27:52
Speaker 2: with the MBTA zoning laws not familiar, not for Massachusetts.
27:57
Speaker 2: You know, housing's outrageously expensive here. I think you're probably
28:00
Speaker 2: aware of that, and the legislature basically passed a rule saying,
28:03
Speaker 2: if you're serviced within a certain distance of the MBTA
28:06
Speaker 2: commuter rail train station, bus station, then you have to
28:09
Speaker 2: have a certain quantity or percentage. I don't remember how
28:13
Speaker 2: they did it of multi family housing, but the stick
28:17
Speaker 2: doesn't really work. Their only option is to really sue
28:19
Speaker 2: towns over this if they propose to pass it.
28:23
Speaker 3: My hometown.
28:24
Speaker 2: My hometown, the legislature in the town passed zoning rules
28:29
Speaker 2: to adhere to this.
28:30
Speaker 3: And actually exceeded it immediately.
28:34
Speaker 2: Ballot initiative got enough signatures where the town of Needum
28:37
Speaker 2: is now going to vote on this, probably to overturn
28:40
Speaker 2: their willingness to comply with the zoning rule, which I
28:44
Speaker 2: personally completely disagree with. I am totally fine with us
28:47
Speaker 2: developing a bunch of multi family housing in the center
28:50
Speaker 2: of town to frankly bring down the cost of housing
28:53
Speaker 2: in New England. And it's not as though our town
28:56
Speaker 2: is having to put up money. They're just having to
28:58
Speaker 2: zone it for the possibility if somebody's developed multifamily. But
29:03
Speaker 2: housing is local, and I am seeing it over and
29:06
Speaker 2: over again where even when the town legislature votes to
29:10
Speaker 2: approve this type of thing, the voters come NIMBI comes
29:14
Speaker 2: out and they say I don't want my town to change.
29:16
Speaker 2: I don't want to look different, feel different. I don't
29:18
Speaker 2: want new people in it, and I'm voting to overturn it,
29:20
Speaker 2: which I find disappointing. But is the reality that a
29:23
Speaker 2: lot of these towns are similarly.
29:24
Speaker 4: I've had it on the other side where my sister
29:26
Speaker 4: works in commercial real estate, and there's been banter about
29:29
Speaker 4: this idea of converting office spaces into residential units in
29:33
Speaker 4: the city of Boston, and that one she has informed
29:36
Speaker 4: me that from a cost perspective, it's extraordinarily expensive to
29:41
Speaker 4: undergo that endeavor. And secondly, the sort of caveat with
29:46
Speaker 4: that is a certain percentage of that housing you get
29:49
Speaker 4: a break on your property taxes. That's the big incentive
29:52
Speaker 4: that Boston was mentioning with this conversion for fifty years,
29:56
Speaker 4: a really long period of time. But a certain percentage
29:58
Speaker 4: of your units have to be actually horrible housing. And
30:01
Speaker 4: her point was from a profit margin standpoint, a commercial
30:04
Speaker 4: real estate developer is not going to go in there
30:05
Speaker 4: and spend millions of dollars to rehab units and then
30:08
Speaker 4: have twenty to twenty five percent of their units not
30:11
Speaker 4: be significantly profitable. I mean, that's just the numbers of it.
30:14
Speaker 4: Not to say, from a social initiative side of things,
30:17
Speaker 4: it's not, you know, a bad thing, but the economics
30:20
Speaker 4: don't line up.
30:21
Speaker 2: Can make money elsewhere. Let's take a quick break. When
30:23
Speaker 2: we come back, we's talk about the piece of legislature
30:26
Speaker 2: working its way through Congress on social security might apply
30:29
Speaker 2: to you. Stay tuned, we'll cover that next here on
30:31
Speaker 2: the Financial Exchange.
30:33
Speaker 1: Thanks to US six one, seven, three, six two thirteen
30:36
Speaker 1: eighty five with your comments and questions about today's show,
30:39
Speaker 1: and let us know what you think about the stories
30:41
Speaker 1: we are covering. This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network,
30:47
Speaker 1: Business and financial news affecting the markets and your wallet.
30:50
Speaker 1: We've got it all straight from Wall Street right here
30:53
Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
31:00
Speaker 3: MarketWatch has a piece this morning.
31:04
Speaker 2: The Social Security Fairness Act is incredibly irresponsible.
31:08
Speaker 3: It's define what the heck this is?
31:09
Speaker 2: First and foremost, there are two laws out there that
31:12
Speaker 2: can affect some people's social security. That would be the
31:14
Speaker 2: Government Pension Offset the GPO and the Windfall Elimination Provision
31:20
Speaker 2: the WEB, both of which are on the chopping block
31:22
Speaker 2: right now. And why this author thinks they're incredibly irresponsible?
31:26
Speaker 2: I tend to agree with is because you would be
31:28
Speaker 2: giving a whole bunch more in Social Security benefits out
31:31
Speaker 2: without raising revenue at all. And if we know one
31:34
Speaker 2: thing about Social Security, it's that it's about to go
31:37
Speaker 2: bust in about eight years. And so if you did
31:39
Speaker 2: this without raising revenues in any way, guess what you're
31:41
Speaker 2: gonna make it go bust faster.
31:44
Speaker 3: That haven't been said.
31:45
Speaker 2: I think there are some reasonable complaints about the rules
31:48
Speaker 2: that affect Social Security, specifically on the windfall elimination provision side,
31:53
Speaker 2: in my opinion, So if you're not familiar, let's say
31:56
Speaker 2: you were a teacher for ten years and then worked
31:59
Speaker 2: in other twenty years in the private sector, and therefore
32:03
Speaker 2: this is specific to mass Chusetts and a number of
32:05
Speaker 2: other states. But during that ten years as a teacher,
32:09
Speaker 2: you did not pay into Social Security. You are eligible
32:13
Speaker 2: for a pension from the Commonwealth of mass Chusetts in
32:15
Speaker 2: that case, and because you did not pay into Social
32:19
Speaker 2: Security for a full thirty years, that pension is going
32:21
Speaker 2: to partially offset your Social Security benefits. And in my mind,
32:25
Speaker 2: that's kind of ridiculous because your Social Security benefits are
32:28
Speaker 2: already accounting for the fact that you didn't work thirty years.
32:31
Speaker 2: They are lower because of that fact, and your pension
32:34
Speaker 2: is lower because you only worked ten years for the
32:37
Speaker 2: Commonwealth of mass chusets.
32:38
Speaker 4: Yeah's it gonna be a big pension.
32:40
Speaker 2: So I kind of look at those rules and say,
32:43
Speaker 2: is this really accomplishing what we wanted it to accomplish,
32:46
Speaker 2: or is it just making it so people don't really
32:47
Speaker 2: have job mobility the government pension offset. On the other hand,
32:52
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of good reasons that this exists.
32:55
Speaker 2: So to explain this one, I'm just going to use
32:56
Speaker 2: an example, and I'm going to try and create a
32:58
Speaker 2: boogeyman here. So let's say that you worked long and
33:01
Speaker 2: hard in your career with the Massachusetts Department of Revenue.
33:05
Speaker 2: You were collecting taxes for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. You
33:09
Speaker 2: can guess why I'm going down this road for the boogeyman.
33:12
Speaker 2: And you are therefore eligible for a pension from the commonwealth,
33:16
Speaker 2: and you are not eligible for any Social Security because
33:19
Speaker 2: you didn't pay into soci Security. You didn't work, You
33:21
Speaker 2: didn't pay into Social Security for any period of time,
33:23
Speaker 2: but your wife did. Your wife worked thirty years in
33:27
Speaker 2: the private sector for take your pick. Gillette, big Massachusetts company,
33:32
Speaker 2: and therefore you are eligible for half of her Social
33:35
Speaker 2: Security benefit under the government pension offset. You don't get
33:38
Speaker 2: that because you've got this pension, you had your own work,
33:41
Speaker 2: You've got your pension. That's not what it was designed for.
33:43
Speaker 2: They want to get rid of that, and I think
33:45
Speaker 2: that's I think that's kind of silly that, hey, I'd
33:48
Speaker 2: be able to collect spousal benefits from my spouse's work
33:51
Speaker 2: at the same time as collecting a robust pension from
33:54
Speaker 2: the other side for my own work. That seems kind
33:57
Speaker 2: off to me. And that's not why the spousal benefit
33:59
Speaker 2: was created. The spousal benefit was created to compensate people
34:02
Speaker 2: who worked in the home during their lifetime. And so
34:05
Speaker 2: I think it's a little bit more nuanced than just saying, hey,
34:07
Speaker 2: we need to do away with these rules because they're
34:09
Speaker 2: unfair and give more people more Social Security benefits at
34:12
Speaker 2: the risk of making the program go belly up faster.
34:15
Speaker 2: But I also think it's pretty likely that this could
34:18
Speaker 2: get passed and these things do go away. And what
34:20
Speaker 2: I would say to you is that if you are
34:23
Speaker 2: working in a role where you are eligible for a
34:26
Speaker 2: pension from the federal government from the state government, and
34:28
Speaker 2: you haven't really thoroughly understood how it's going to affect
34:32
Speaker 2: your Social Security benefits or looked into tactics where you
34:35
Speaker 2: can increase your total retirement income. Right if you've been
34:38
Speaker 2: working for the state of Massachusetts for thirty five years
34:41
Speaker 2: and you've maxed out your retirement benefits there, it could
34:44
Speaker 2: make a lot of sense for you to go find
34:45
Speaker 2: even a part time job elsewhere in order to get
34:48
Speaker 2: paid into Social Security for long enough to collect. If
34:51
Speaker 2: you have questions along those lines, you're not really sure
34:54
Speaker 2: how these things are going to affect your retirement benefits,
34:57
Speaker 2: please give the folks at Armstrong Advisory Group a call.
34:59
Speaker 2: We work with a number of people in all different
35:02
Speaker 2: sorts of roles here who have been affected by the
35:04
Speaker 2: WEB or the GPO, and we can help you maximize
35:07
Speaker 2: those benefits and most importantly plan them out so that
35:11
Speaker 2: it's all accounted for properly in your personal financial plan.
35:14
Speaker 2: You can call our office at eight hundred three nine
35:17
Speaker 2: three four zero zero one the Armstrong Advisory Group. We
35:20
Speaker 2: offer free appointments across New England for folks that want
35:24
Speaker 2: to sit down and really dig into their personal financial situation,
35:27
Speaker 2: and again that number to talk to somebody and book
35:30
Speaker 2: your appointment now is eight hundred three nine three for
35:34
Speaker 2: zero zero one.
35:35
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
35:38
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
35:40
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
35:43
Speaker 1: your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
35:46
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
35:49
Speaker 1: advisory services.
35:51
Speaker 2: Paul Black, Friday has come and gone. Cyber Monday has
35:54
Speaker 2: come and gone, which means it's the most wonderful time
35:58
Speaker 2: of the year for people that love of stealing packages
36:01
Speaker 2: off of your front porch, those porch pirates, and there
36:05
Speaker 2: was a new product out there just for you.
36:07
Speaker 1: You know.
36:07
Speaker 2: First thing that I think we started doing in reaction
36:10
Speaker 2: to this was some sort of lock box or you know,
36:13
Speaker 2: I've seen the ability to instruct the delivery driver to hey,
36:16
Speaker 2: put this thing on my back porch because I don't
36:18
Speaker 2: want I don't want to get and stolen right off
36:20
Speaker 2: of there. Anyone that's lived in Somerville, Cambridge, Boston, Medford,
36:24
Speaker 2: you know, or really anywhere around a major city across
36:28
Speaker 2: the country has had probably something attempt or successfully get
36:32
Speaker 2: stolen off of their porch, so I can I can
36:36
Speaker 2: feel this one. Then we had the smart doorbells, so
36:39
Speaker 2: I've got a couple of those on my house where
36:41
Speaker 2: I can at least see the porch pirates steal a
36:43
Speaker 2: thing directly from me. That doesn't really help because they're
36:46
Speaker 2: usually wearing a mask of some sort, so I can't
36:48
Speaker 2: properly identify that person, but I can actually watch you
36:50
Speaker 2: steal my product. Now we've got porch Pirate insurance, and
36:55
Speaker 2: I wish there was a P letter word for insurance
36:57
Speaker 2: that we could really, you know, dive in touch Porsch
37:00
Speaker 2: Pirate protection. I like that triple P for folks that
37:05
Speaker 2: want to protect their packages from being stolen or at
37:09
Speaker 2: least ensure them. For one hundred and twenty dollars a year.
37:12
Speaker 2: You can get porch Pirate protection for.
37:15
Speaker 4: Three claims a year and up to two thousand dollars
37:17
Speaker 4: of stoven stolen delivery.
37:19
Speaker 2: This is not going to work for your house, Paul,
37:20
Speaker 2: you have a new three packages at your door. I
37:24
Speaker 2: would be willing to bet that you average more than
37:26
Speaker 2: two packages at your door every single day in the
37:29
Speaker 2: month of December.
37:30
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, absolutely, I mean, Chuck and I once did
37:32
Speaker 4: a exploration on how many Amazon orders we had over
37:36
Speaker 4: a calendar period, and I believe my househol was three sixty.
37:40
Speaker 4: It was almost one a day. It averaged out too.
37:42
Speaker 1: I think I'm both of time.
37:43
Speaker 2: See, I can't track this easily because my wife and
37:45
Speaker 2: I have we share an Amazon Prime account, but we
37:48
Speaker 2: have separate logins, so I don't know what she's getting shipped.
37:50
Speaker 2: I'll I'll have to look into this and get back.
37:52
Speaker 4: I'll run back the numbers for the second hour, but
37:54
Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure that's where we came at. Luckily, in
37:57
Speaker 4: the burbs, knock Wood, you don't have to worry. As
38:01
Speaker 4: the city. I had it every single time, and if
38:03
Speaker 4: I had valuable stuff, you got to send it out
38:05
Speaker 4: to the burbs.
38:06
Speaker 2: So get your porch pirate protection. Let's take a quick break.
38:08
Speaker 2: When we come back, we'll have a full market recap.
38:11
Speaker 2: Markets have turned negative around the eleven o'clock hour and
38:14
Speaker 2: a lot more to cover next on the financial exchange,