Latest / Football Junkies podcast / Episode 13: The value of production

Transcript

Episode 13: The value of production · Football Junkies podcast

• 0:00
  Bag alert, bag alert, bag alert, bag alert, bag alert folks.
• 0:03
  That's right.
• 0:04
  Ramon Dre Stevenson gets paid.
• 0:06
  All right.
• 0:07
  Yes.
• 0:08
  We got some motion.
• 0:09
  We got some friction.
• 0:10
  We got something to talk about folks.
• 0:14
  What does this mean for the future running back contracts and will running back contracts
• 0:20
  ever exceed to the $20 million mark?
• 0:23
  We're going to talk about all about this.
• 0:25
  This is a packed episode, a lot of twists and turns, but trust me, follow me.
• 0:31
  I'll lead you all the way through.
• 0:32
  I am your host, your GM, your favorite GM who still is not on the team right now.
• 0:38
  Kale, let's get it.
• 1:01
  All right, folks.
• 1:02
  So this is a little bit of a shocker.
• 1:06
  I definitely put out that we were going to take a break just because I knew that there
• 1:12
  really wasn't going to be anything really to talk about within these next few weeks because
• 1:16
  this is the phase where a lot of teams, people in the front office, coaches and whatnot,
• 1:21
  this is probably going to be the last time that they're going to be able to really spend
• 1:25
  some time with family, friends, and do whatever little things that they need to do for their
• 1:31
  personal life.
• 1:34
  We were blindsided with the bag alert.
• 1:35
  So with all bag alerts, we got to talk about it.
• 1:39
  We have to talk about the bag alerts because why?
• 1:43
  We value the bag alerts.
• 1:46
  Always, always have, always will be.
• 1:49
  Valuing the bag alerts.
• 1:51
  So let's get into it.
• 1:52
  So running back for the New England Patriots, Ramon Dre Stevenson, into a four year, $36
• 1:59
  million extension.
• 2:01
  $17 million is guaranteed, he'll be making $9 million a year according to SpotWrap.
• 2:07
  Shout out to SpotWrap.
• 2:08
  Now let's look at these stats.
• 2:10
  So we look at these stats.
• 2:12
  According to ESPN, and this is just strictly last season, he had 156 rushing attempts, 619
• 2:21
  yards, four touchdowns, and he averaged four yards a carry.
• 2:26
  Cool.
• 2:27
  Let's go a little bit deeper and look more into the analytical side of these stats.
• 2:32
  So according to pro football reference, he had 13 rushing attempts per game, 49.4% rushing
• 2:39
  success rate.
• 2:40
  He had 51 receiving receptions and he had 6.3 receiving yards per reception.
• 2:49
  Also I forgot this one, I left this one out.
• 2:52
  He had 74.5% catching percentage.
• 2:56
  And that was strictly for last season.
• 3:00
  When you look at Ramon Dre Stevenson, Ramon Dre Stevenson is in a situation where if we're
• 3:06
  being real, he probably could have hit free agency, but who was to say he would have been
• 3:11
  offered a contract that is similar to what the Patriots are offering.
• 3:18
  One can basically say at this point that he is their best running back.
• 3:24
  Let's face it, folks.
• 3:25
  There are certain teams in the league who they value certain positions more than others.
• 3:32
  There are some teams who they value receivers more.
• 3:37
  They're running backs.
• 3:38
  There are some teams that value running backs over tight ends.
• 3:41
  It just really depends on what team it is.
• 3:46
  And this probably opens up to a more broader conversation as a whole.
• 3:53
  When Ramon Dre Stevenson getting paid, the money that he get paid, when you first look
• 3:56
  at the numbers, you're probably thinking, oh man, that's a crazy deal.
• 3:59
  But when you really break it down, he's not making a whole lot of money.
• 4:04
  He's only making 9 million a year, which I mean, you know, that's still pretty good
• 4:06
  money, but you would think by now at this point with the league making as much money
• 4:12
  as they're making that the running back market would sort of catch up just a little bit.
• 4:16
  Not a whole lot, but just a little bit.
• 4:18
  And clearly it hasn't in its shows because when you look at it, for instance, you know,
• 4:25
  the receiver market blew up over, you know, this off season.
• 4:28
  The offensive line market blew up just a little bit, not a whole lot, but just a little bit.
• 4:32
  But I think it's going to blow up, you know, probably next year.
• 4:35
  Probably, I don't know.
• 4:36
  I'm just a GM.
• 4:37
  We'll figure that out.
• 4:38
  But that's another that's going to be that's going to be episode in itself.
• 4:42
  Okay.
• 4:43
  I'm giving you heads up right now.
• 4:44
  There's going to be one episode is going to be dedicated to all, you know, future predictions
• 4:49
  for certain positions and whatnot.
• 4:52
  That's going to be a few episodes.
• 4:53
  I don't know if it's going to be the next one.
• 4:54
  I don't know if people figure it out now back to the running backs.
• 4:58
  Okay.
• 4:59
  Um, running backs, you know, as a whole, even when you look at their franchise tag, it's
• 5:04
  not even worth a whole lot of money.
• 5:06
  Like everybody else's franchise tag has gone up, you know, substantially to a good amount.
• 5:11
  You know, some, some franchise tags, you know, numbers are a little bit more than others,
• 5:16
  but everyone's has gone up just a little bit.
• 5:20
  And you know, what you're seeing is, you know, the league will not really the league, but
• 5:26
  GM's as a whole, you know, continue to say that, you know, they quote unquote air quotes,
• 5:32
  big air quotes that they don't value the running back market.
• 5:36
  Even though that is a lie, you know, when you look at the recent, you know, running
• 5:41
  back signings, you look at Christian McCaffrey's deal, you got to look at Seyquan's deal.
• 5:47
  You got to look at Jonathan Taylor's deal.
• 5:49
  There are teams that are still willing to be the outliers and pay the running back market.
• 5:55
  Now are they going to pay them, you know, a boatload of money?
• 5:59
  No, but is it going to be a substantial amount of money for running back?
• 6:03
  Yes, it is.
• 6:04
  Right.
• 6:05
  And so, you know, in this before, okay, you know what this will do.
• 6:11
  Before we can talk about the present, we have to talk about the past, right?
• 6:15
  Because sometimes the past can, you know, answer the questions of the present and the
• 6:20
  future.
• 6:21
  Right.
• 6:22
  That's a good quote right there.
• 6:23
  I'm going to keep that in my back pocket.
• 6:26
  When you look at past running back contracts, right?
• 6:29
  The main three contracts that everybody talks about and they even do it for me every single
• 6:35
  time I'm running back, it's sign is Levy on bells, Todd Gurley's and Zeke's.
• 6:40
  Right.
• 6:41
  Those three, those three, those three contracts are contracts that were just completely bad,
• 6:48
  you know, from the moment that they were announced in the moment that they were signed, they
• 6:52
  just bad contracts and we're going to talk about it right now.
• 6:55
  So we look at Levy on's deal when he signed with the jets, right?
• 6:59
  He inked a four year, 52 million dollar deal, you know, at that time that was a lot of money.
• 7:04
  And so he got a $8 million signing bonus.
• 7:07
  He was guaranteed $27 million at signing.
• 7:10
  He had $27 million of total guarantees and he was making $13.2 million a year.
• 7:16
  Right.
• 7:17
  When you look at Todd Gurley's deal when he was with, you know, when he was still with
• 7:20
  the Rams, he ain't a four year, 57.5 million dollar deal, a $21 million signing bonus, $21.9
• 7:29
  million was guaranteed at signing $45 million in total guarantees and he was making $14.3
• 7:35
  million a year.
• 7:36
  Right.
• 7:37
  He had Zeke's.
• 7:38
  Now the only thing with Zeke's, it's a little bit weird because he was still on his rookie
• 7:43
  deal and I think he still had, I think two years left on his deal, on his rookie deal
• 7:48
  before, you know, they could start doing any of those things, but that's another story
• 7:52
  for another day.
• 7:53
  Right.
• 7:54
  With his deal, six years, $90 million, $7.5 million signing bonus, $28 million guarantee
• 8:00
  that signing $50 million in total guarantees and he was making $15 million a year.
• 8:05
  Now, when you look at those numbers, those are some pretty crazy numbers at that time,
• 8:10
  you know, for running max because at that time, the league was still paying, you know,
• 8:16
  those type of running backs a high amount of money because you had, you know, these,
• 8:23
  these three running backs who their skill set was just amazing and every single time
• 8:27
  that they got the ball, it just seemed like they always made magic, especially with Levy
• 8:31
  on and talker.
• 8:33
  Right.
• 8:34
  And so, you know, they definitely fought tooth and nail for their deals and they finally
• 8:38
  got them.
• 8:39
  But the problem is, is that when they got the deals in some ways, it messed up the running
• 8:44
  back market because for that period from, from the time that they got those deals up
• 8:50
  until now, there wasn't a lot of running backs that were getting paid, you know, cuckoo
• 8:55
  for cocoa puffs type of money.
• 8:57
  They weren't, they were getting, you know, dined and nickeled a little bit.
• 9:01
  They were getting, you know, the seven or eight million dollars a year, which I mean,
• 9:05
  that still is good money.
• 9:07
  However, you know, when you look at all the other positions, you know, on a team, both
• 9:12
  offensively and defensively running backs is probably the, the one position where they
• 9:18
  not really making a whole lot of money, you know, and it also doesn't help that their
• 9:22
  shelf life is not as long as a receiver, a tight end, an offense alignment, a quarterback,
• 9:28
  a corner, a detackle.
• 9:29
  It's not a majority of their prime years is used up where in college.
• 9:35
  So by the time that they get into the league, they got so much wear and tear on their bodies
• 9:40
  that it's just like, oh, I don't know.
• 9:43
  I don't know if we can give them a second deal.
• 9:44
  I don't know if we want to give them a third deal.
• 9:46
  Now of course there are running backs, you know, that are outliers in those situations,
• 9:51
  but for the majority, a lot of running backs don't see a third or fourth contract.
• 9:57
  It's rare.
• 9:58
  It's very rare.
• 9:59
  The first thing I could think of right now, who was still getting contracts, you know,
• 10:04
  even as he got older was Adrian Peterson, right?
• 10:08
  Because even though Adrian Peterson didn't have, you know, that sort of explosive speed
• 10:12
  that he used to have when he was younger, guess what?
• 10:15
  He still had that power.
• 10:17
  He could still run up the middle, truck you over, run you over, run two or three people
• 10:21
  over and get you a first down and more, right?
• 10:25
  Now what you see is, you know, someone like a Christian McCaffrey, I wouldn't be surprised
• 10:30
  if this is, if he gets maybe one more extension.
• 10:33
  I wouldn't be surprised just because of he can, you know, double as a slot receiver and
• 10:39
  he's also receiving back.
• 10:41
  I wouldn't be surprised.
• 10:42
  I just wouldn't.
• 10:44
  And so, you know, what you see is teams, you know, are going to fight a little bit harder
• 10:51
  when it comes to giving, you know, extensions.
• 10:55
  They're going to do that.
• 10:56
  Okay.
• 10:57
  Case in point with Alvin Camero right now.
• 10:59
  He's, he's in, he's not, I wouldn't say he's holding out, but you know, he wants more money
• 11:05
  because why?
• 11:06
  He's, you know, one of the best running backs in the league right now.
• 11:10
  He is and he plays a very pivotal role on that Saints offense.
• 11:15
  It's not the receivers.
• 11:17
  It's not Taysom Hill.
• 11:19
  It's Alvin Camero.
• 11:20
  Okay.
• 11:21
  Without Alvin Camero, that offense does not run the right way.
• 11:25
  It just doesn't.
• 11:26
  And so he feels like he wants to be compensated.
• 11:30
  Just how, you know, like Christian McCaffrey got compensated.
• 11:33
  Now, do I think he will get anything close to what Christian McCaffrey got?
• 11:38
  Possibly.
• 11:39
  It may not be 19, but I wouldn't be surprised if he get maybe, you know, 18.5, 18.9 or they'll
• 11:46
  try to, they're not going to get to 19, but they're going to try to get as close as they
• 11:50
  can to 19, right?
• 11:52
  And so, you know, I say all that to say this, right?
• 11:56
  Now, you know, going, you know, full circle and everything, when you look at those past
• 12:01
  contracts, those were, those were, you know, really bad.
• 12:03
  But when you look at the recent contracts, you know, for running backs, look at Christian
• 12:08
  McCaffrey's deal, right?
• 12:09
  He ain't a two year, 38 million dollar extension with the Niners, 14.2 million dollar signing
• 12:15
  bonus, 24 million guaranteed at signing 24 million in total guarantees, he's making
• 12:20
  19 million a year, right?
• 12:22
  We look at Saquon when he signed with the Eagles, right?
• 12:25
  He ain't a three year, 37.7 million dollar deal, right?
• 12:30
  11.6 million dollar signing bonus, 26 million guaranteed at signing 26 million in total
• 12:36
  guarantees, 12.5 million a year.
• 12:39
  When you look at Jonathan Taylor's extension to stay with the Colts, right?
• 12:44
  Three years, 42 million dollars, 10.2 million dollar signing bonus, 19.3 million guaranteed
• 12:51
  at signing 26.5 million in total guarantees, 14 million a year, right?
• 12:58
  Those three, those three running backs alone are what you would classify as the outliers
• 13:04
  of the running back market because of their skillset and how much of a pivotal role that
• 13:10
  they play on that offense, right?
• 13:13
  And so, you know, when you have those type of players, of course they're going to demand
• 13:18
  a lot of money.
• 13:19
  But when you look at, you know, the free agency running back market next year, right?
• 13:24
  For instance, you have James Conner, Aaron Jones and Nick Chubb just to name a few, right?
• 13:29
  When you look at their deals that they got recently, James Conner, three years, 21 million,
• 13:35
  six million dollar signing bonus, 13.5 million guaranteed at signing, seven million a year.
• 13:40
  I mean, look at Aaron Jones' deal when he signed with the Vikings one year, seven million
• 13:46
  dollars, right?
• 13:47
  Four million dollar signing bonus, seven million guaranteed at signing, seven million a year.
• 13:53
  Nick Chubb, that situation is a little bit more unique in itself because that was sort
• 13:58
  of a restructure simply because they wanted to get some money back, you know, with the
• 14:04
  injury that he had last season and whatnot.
• 14:08
  That's a weird situation in itself as well.
• 14:11
  His was a one year, two point two million dollar quote unquote extension, nine hundred
• 14:17
  twenty five million, nine hundred twenty five thousand dollar signing bonus, nine hundred
• 14:22
  twenty five guaranteed at signing two point twenty seven million a year, right?
• 14:28
  So there's tears, there's levels to this thing, right?
• 14:31
  You have your, you know, you have the big fish, Christian McCaffrey, Seguin Barclays,
• 14:36
  Jonathan Taylor's, you know, Alvin Cameras of the world, then you have the Nick Chubbs,
• 14:41
  the Aaron Jones, the James Cones of the world, and then you have, you know, everybody else,
• 14:45
  right?
• 14:46
  If we're being real here, if we're really, really, really, really being real here, the
• 14:51
  running back market in my mind is probably not going, well, no, it probably will.
• 14:58
  It is probably going to crest that 20, that 20 million mark.
• 15:03
  There is going to be a team that they're going to be so desperate in landing a certain type
• 15:09
  of running back that they will be willing, willing to hit that 20 million dollar mark.
• 15:15
  Now do I know who the running back is?
• 15:17
  Do I know who the team is?
• 15:18
  No, I don't because I don't have a crystal ball right in front of me, but I can guarantee
• 15:22
  you this.
• 15:24
  If Christian McCaffrey still wants to play and he is still playing at an elite level
• 15:30
  two years from now, I guarantee you he will hit that 20 dollar mark.
• 15:36
  I guarantee you it's either going to be him, Alvin Camara, or is there anybody else I can
• 15:44
  think of?
• 15:45
  Anybody else?
• 15:46
  No, I think those are probably the only two right now that I could think of that can, you
• 15:51
  know, hit that mark.
• 15:53
  And even then, you know, when we look at this thing a little bit deeper, right?
• 15:58
  When you look at the majority of playoff teams, what do they all have in common?
• 16:04
  I'll let you think about it for a second.
• 16:06
  Better yet, I'll just give you the answer.
• 16:08
  They all value the running back.
• 16:11
  Now, some of the teams value the running back position a little bit more than others, but
• 16:17
  they all value the running back in some position.
• 16:20
  I mean, in some way, right?
• 16:22
  You look at the 49ers, Christian McCaffrey, you look at the Dolphins, they got Raheem
• 16:27
  Mostard, David N'Chain, and they just drafted somebody else.
• 16:31
  We look at the Eagles, they got Saquon.
• 16:33
  When you look at the Ravens, they got, you know, Derek Henry, and then they also have
• 16:38
  Keaton Mitchell and whatnot.
• 16:39
  When you look at the Chiefs, they still have Isaiah Pacheco, and I think they have Clyde
• 16:44
  Elmer-Teller as well.
• 16:46
  So you cannot tell me at this point, at this juncture, that teams do not value the running
• 16:54
  back as a whole.
• 16:56
  You cannot tell me.
• 16:57
  When the Super Bowl teams have a, you know, above average to an elite running back on
• 17:04
  their team, you just can't tell me that.
• 17:06
  Now there are some, you know, some playoff teams that have the one-two punch, you know,
• 17:11
  combination with running backs, and then there's, you know, then there's some who, they don't
• 17:16
  need that.
• 17:17
  They have, you know, the primary back, you know, they have the guy, you know, at the
• 17:21
  running back position.
• 17:22
  But, you know, I say all that to say this, and I'll probably just end it right here.
• 17:25
  I didn't want to really, you know, stretch this thing out, you know, too long dealing
• 17:29
  and make a long and drawn out episode that just doesn't make any sense.
• 17:34
  But I will say this, you know, and this will be my final statement.
• 17:38
  The running back market has to get properly compensated for the things that they do weekend
• 17:46
  and week out.
• 17:47
  You cannot tell me, nor can you show me a team or a highlight where basically there's
• 17:55
  not the running back doing something crazy.
• 17:58
  They're not, you know, going off for 30 yards untouched or a crazy juke move or they make,
• 18:04
  you know, the game winning touchdown or something like that.
• 18:07
  You can't tell me that.
• 18:08
  You can't.
• 18:09
  And it shows with history in the NFL.
• 18:12
  Some of the greatest football players that we all know and love are what running backs
• 18:18
  Barry Sanders, the Damian Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Jerome Betis, right?
• 18:25
  Emmett Smith, all of those guys, Walter Payton, right?
• 18:30
  There is a clear cut, you know, path that shows that the running back market is very
• 18:37
  influential in the league.
• 18:40
  It's just you have GMs who are, you know, I wouldn't say cheap, but they just value
• 18:46
  certain positions more than others.
• 18:49
  And you know, the league cycle, as I call it, are in a phase where you have to have
• 18:54
  the, you have to have the receiver.
• 18:56
  If you don't have the number one receiver and if you don't have a, you know, a crazy
• 18:59
  skilled quarterback and you don't have nothing, but you're going to see that phase start to
• 19:04
  wane off a little bit, especially with this upcoming draft where it's going to be defensive
• 19:09
  driven.
• 19:10
  Teams are going to want to value running backs more, right?
• 19:13
  So we'll leave it right there.
• 19:15
  That's going to be a bigger topic for another time.
• 19:18
  Thank you guys so much for listening to this quick little episode of football's junkies
• 19:22
  podcast.
• 19:23
  If you guys love what you are listening, please leave a five star review, download the episodes
• 19:28
  because that allows us to analyze and see what can we give our fellow junkies the fix
• 19:34
  that they need.
• 19:35
  Okay.
• 19:36
  Also, also, also.
• 19:38
  We have the tick tock page is up football junkies pod.
• 19:43
  Again, that's football junkies pod run, you know, run over there and follow us over there.
• 19:49
  We're going to be uploading some clips and content as well over there.
• 19:53
  Follow us on YouTube football junkies pod as well.
• 19:56
  Also follow us on Instagram at football underscore junkies pod.
• 20:00
  That's right.
• 20:01
  Football underscore junkies pod.
• 20:04
  You can listen to this, you know, this great, great, great, great, great podcast on any
• 20:09
  streaming platform that you listen to podcasts.
• 20:12
  And as always, I hope I gave you guys this quick fix that you guys need just to carry
• 20:17
  us, you know, through this crazy little break that we're in right now.
• 20:21
  I have to go back into the lab to look at more film to research more things so I can
• 20:27
  give you guys more, more information and a better fix than this one.
• 20:33
  All right.
• 20:34
  I love you guys.
• 20:35
  I'm out.
• 21:05
  Bye.