Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Markets Close And The Diesel Debate

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AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Markets Close And The Diesel Debate · AG Bull

• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: A down day today across the corn, soybean, and the wheats.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know, it just sort of felt kind of heavy today, I guess, if that makes sense.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: Cattle had a good day.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: I've got some news, and then we'll get the settlements.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: And then, as Jerry Reed once said, I've got to get my tin in the wind.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: Once again, surfing the Wi-Fi waves from Sparkle City, USA.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: For one more day, your pal Davis Michelson here on Axquawk in the afternoon.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: Pleased as punched to have you all along with us today.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Tin in the Wind.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if that's a thing or not.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: So apparently there was a Smokey in the Bandit 2.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody remembers East Bound and Down, which was the Jerry Reed tune, East Bound and Down.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: From so for the sequel, they had him do the the theme song as well.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: And he there's a line in there about I got my teen in the wind.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: I liked uh East Bound and Down a whole lot better.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: I don't even know if I saw Smoky and the Bandit 2.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe you did.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Leave, you know what?
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: If you're watching on YouTube or whatever, leave it in the comments if you saw Smoky and the Bandit 2.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: What's your thought?
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: Is that something I should should take some time for?
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: I I'd love to hear it.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: I'd love to know.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, down in corn, down in the soybeans, down in the winter wheat markets, but cattle were higher on the day.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just gonna just gonna set you up before I hit the road and make sure that you've got the settlements.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: I've got a couple of news stories here for you.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: There's always news.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: A couple, a couple from Wees Meyer here that I wanted to make sure and highlight for you so you can kind of think them through.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: Just just be informed, and then we'll, like I said, we'll hit the settlements and I'll get you out of here too.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: Sweet.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: First of all, may I encourage you to take your marketing by the horns with Ag Bull Intel.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: Visit Agbol.com or give us a call at 855-737 Farm.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: And if you caught the show yesterday, Mr.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: Tommy Gersafi himself, the T-Rex of Ag Bull, did announce that he has, in fact, he has acquired a certain limited number of Bluetooth speakers.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: I know in the barn, you got your AM radio, and it probably never shuts off.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: But there's an awful lot of good content out there.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: I would argue ours is is right up there that you may want to get that you can only get online through your phone, through your tablet, or your preferred digital device.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: You need a Bluetooth speaker for that.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: So keep your AM radio.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: Don't throw that away.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: You're gonna want to have that.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: But also let us set you up with a Bluetooth speaker.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: You can get your very own of these limited quantities if you sign up for a one-year subscription to AgBol at Agbol.com.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's 250 big ones, two months free if you sign up for an entire year or 25 a month.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: You know, you want to take it slow, you want to go one step at a time, totally fine.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Totally fine.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: But if you want that special speaker from uh Mr.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: Gasafi himself, you gotta you gotta sign up for a full year.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get into it.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: The ethanol numbers have production down six and one half percent from the previous week.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: Ethanol stocks actually moved in the right direction, declining slightly to tally 24.6 million barrels.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: I'd like us a whole lot better.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: And if you've watched before and I've reported on these, you know I'd like to see a 19 on that, but we're at 24.6 million barrels on total ethanol stocks currently, down some from uh what is that, uh maybe two percent lower?
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: I'd have to look at the thing here.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: I can't look at two things.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, 2.1% lower from the previous week.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: So moving in the right direction, we're we're moving ethanol out the door.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: I like the sound of that.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Other energy items, U.S.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: crude oil inventories surged higher during the report week.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: However, gasoline and distillate stocks declined and refinery utilization softened by nearly three percent.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we'll talk about diesel coming up here in one of our stories.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: You know, uh, I know that our our immediate concern is for diesel for harvest, but we've also got to think about you know the the winter coming up.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: The northeast still uses a lot of homes still use heating oil up there, which is one of those those distillate products that uh would compete with Ruby Red.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: And if if Ruby is already over six bucks a gallon and we're heading into the winter, and folks need to be stocking up for wintertime over in the northeastern part of our great nation, yikes, energy bills are are gonna be gonna be a problem.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: Like I said, we're we've got a little little bit on uh on diesel coming up here.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: But let's begin with this one economic frustration widespread among rural Americans, even as President Trump retains substantial support.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: This, according to a new associated press survey reported by Ali Swenson, Sarah Jane Tribble, and Lindley Sanders, about half of rural registered voters say the economy has deteriorated since Trump returned to office, while 48% still approve of his job performance.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: The findings document dissatisfaction with economic conditions alongside continued support for the president.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: I have uh I have argued that some of the things that he has decided to do just seem ill-timed ahead of the midterm elections.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: But it according to this AP survey, he's he's still got uh pretty decent support out in in farm country.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll have to see what happens, what that, how that translates once we get to the midterm elections.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: In other news, soybean traders, of course, watching this week's meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi, while grain markets continue to weigh tighter supplies and strong demand.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: Terrain ag market analyst Mark Rosenbaum said, quote, we could see a fair amount of volatility around that meeting on the soybean side in particular, depending on how quickly we get information he says out of that meeting and also what the results are there, whether we end up with more ag products or generally a friendly trade environment.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: Beyond the potential trade implications, Rosenbaum says soybean demand does remain a bright spot for the market.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: It seems like we've been quieter on the daily sales for a while there, man.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: We had a good run going.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: And while Trump and G are are meeting this week, expect headline-driven markets coming coming out of that.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: And like he said, it it depends on how quickly the information comes out, which you know, information flows at the at a breakneck pace these days.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: So uh we we we should know soon what's going on.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: It'll be interesting to watch the market's response.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: I I don't I don't quite know how to handicap it.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: I would just say be prepared to take advantage or to duck and cover.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: You know, just be ready for anything.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: It's hard telling what those two will come up with.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: Here's a good one.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: Canada supplies roughly 80% of U.S.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: potash imports.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: We talked about this just the other day.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: President Trump said Monday the United States is working on a massive deal to buy Belarusian potash at a price substantially below what the U.S.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: currently pays Canada.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe questioned whether Belarusian potash could actually be cheaper, noting Belarus is landlocked and shipments would need to move through Russia before reaching the United States.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: That whole thing just seems dicey.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: As I mentioned, was it Monday maybe I mentioned this story when it first came up?
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: You know, Belarus has doesn't have the best humanitarian track record.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: And so there have been some sanctions which have since been lifted.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: And if if it's got to go through Russia, get trying to get anything out of Russia right now just is dicey.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: Just ask the wheat market.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: And so I don't know, I don't know how potash would be any different.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: But if if we can at least get potash uh to come down just a little bit on some increased supplies, be it from Belarus.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I guess, I guess, you know, again, more on that as as details become available.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: And next week, uh, I've got a full spate of guests, but I did leave myself some time.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: I believe on Wednesday, I don't have my calendar open, but I did leave myself some time because I do expect to have some updated fertilizer numbers, and so we'll run those down for you next week.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: Let you know where you're at.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: It's not going to be pretty, I can tell you that, but you you need to know, you need to stay informed, and I have every intention of getting you there.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: Now, let's get to diesel.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: This from Jim Wiesmeyer.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_00: I just pulled this right out of Wiesmeier's commentary from earlier today.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: He wrote, quote, President Donald Trump's support for restricting U.S.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: diesel exports has exposed a public division within his administration over how to respond to record fuel prices.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: According to Reuters, Energy Secretary Chris Wright rejected a ban September 23rd.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: That was just a day after Trump endorsed the idea.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: Wright warned that the resulting disruption to refinery operations could increase gasoline and jet fuel prices.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: Quote, the blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely does not work, Wright said.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: His explanation was diesel would accumulate until refiners exhausted available storage and reduced crude processing, cutting production of other fuels in the process.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, Interior Secretary Doug Borgomacar, according to Jim Weesmeyer, has raised a separate objection of international retaliation.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: On September 14, comments reported by Reuters, he warned that countries affected by U.S.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: restrictions could limit their own shipments, exposing import-dependent U.S.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: markets, including California, to additional supply problems.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_00: Bergham said he does not believe an export ban would lower consumer energy prices.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: Lot of controversy around how to get the how to rebuild the national diesel supply.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: After harvest, I can't imagine what the the inventory numbers and the prices are going to look like.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: It makes one wonder about uh fall fertilizer application rates.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: That just occurred to me.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna dig into that.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: I'll look into it.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get to the tail of the ticker and browse the markets quickly.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: Corn, soybeans, and wheat futures were all lower this morning at the start of the day session.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: Cattle futures were off to a strong start, and lean hogs backtracked from yesterday's gains.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: Equities and bonds were under pressure in early morning trade.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: Around the lunch hour, corn was down seven cents.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: Beans off a nickel in Casey.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: Wheat was threatening double-digit losses.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: Cattle futures were solidly higher, and lean hogs were under light pressure.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: Let me go over here to my T4 software and uh let's go to let's go to the grains.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: Here we are.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: December corn settled out at 529 today, down seven and three quarter cents.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: Your November soybeans down seven and one half cents at 13.18 even.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: Soybean meal mostly lower.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: The October contract was higher, but I don't I don't know that that tells us anything.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: Everything else was lower.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: Soybean oil lower across the board, mildly so.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: And then over to the winter wheats, December Chicago wheat, 708 and 12 at settlement, down eight and three quarters.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: KC wheat at 771 and three quarters, down nine and one half cents at settlement.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: And let's get over to the livestocks.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: October feeder cattle, 333.32 and a half at settlement, up five dollars and thirty cents.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's pretty pretty dandy there.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: I like the looks of that.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, just off session highs, actually.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: The the day's high was 333.47 and one half.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_00: Not too shabby at 333.32 and a half, just off session highs at settlement.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: Your October fat's 220.92 and a half.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: That's up$2.15.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_00: Over to the lean hogs.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, I know what the screen says there.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: The December, yes, down 67.12 cents at 70.32 and one half.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_00: And most contracts looking further out from that into the deferreds were lower.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_00: We got 52 cents lower.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_00: Here's 35.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: Now 40 cents lower in the May 27 lean hog contract.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: But the Octobers were up 60 cents at 79.87 and one half.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_00: How about those equities?
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, still still lower across the board there.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: The SP, the Nasdaq, and the Dow.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: And the yeah, bonds under pressure as well.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: Bitcoin is under pressure now, below uh 85,000, almost to 84,000 on your Bitcoin.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: So uh yeah, a down day pretty much across the board in the markets, except for the cattle.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: I like to see uh green on the screen for the cattles there.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure you do as well.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: 65 degrees currently in Sparkle City, USA.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: It's the sun came out, it's been cloudy the whole time.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: We uh we rolled in to uh just to uh Cedar Falls here on what is it, Saturday, and it's just been uh rainy, wet, cloudy, and cold.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: Here we are at 65 and sunny.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: Well, partly cloudy, I guess my computer says, but uh definitely a nicer day than we've seen uh the in the uh in the time that we've been here.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: According to the National Weather Service, there's a slight risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the southwest, while a marginal risk expands into the central and southern plains.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_00: A strong surface high will bring colder than average temperatures across the northern central plains, the northeast, and mid-Atlantic with highs generally in the 60s.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: With that, let's get to some items of mild interest, and I'll cut you loose.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: In 1920, it's the birthday of Mickey Rooney, American actor and singer, the uh the most popular movie star in the world, there for quite a while.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: In the world, according to uh according to some, Mickey Rooney, born this date in 1920.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: Also, another birthday boy today, 1959, Mr.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: Jason Alexander Art Vandele himself, uh architect of some note.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: Uh you may know him as George from Seinfeld.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: Jason Alexander, born this day in 1959.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: And get this the last permitted visit to the Fort Knox Gold Vault by members of the U.S.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: Congress and some journalists who saw a presentation and were allowed to take a handful of photographs was on September 23rd, this date in 1974.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: Man, what uh what Uncle Scrooge couldn't do with a place like Fort Knox.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_00: We can catch you up on the markets and the things you need to know on that side today and every day at Agbol.com.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: Take your marketing by the horns with Ag Bull Intel.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: Visit Agbol.com or give us a call, 855-737 Farm.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: Real quick, thanks to Trade the News for keeping my whole squad on top of what's happening in the markets.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: News you can trust, news you can use.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, thanks to Plus500, my squad and I use Plus500 T4 software for real-time quotes and a host of dandy features.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_00: Plus 500 trust plus 500.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: Jet Sidwell back first thing in the morning to get you ready for the day, and I'll be in the wind for the rest of the week.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: I leave you in the capable hands of my colleague, the Agbol T-Rex himself, Mr.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: Tommy Grissafi.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for uh for watching today.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_00: I'll have I've got some dandy guests lined up for you next week.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: I've got Brian Grady on Monday.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I've got uh this really cool weather guy on uh on Tuesday, I believe it is.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_00: Wednesday, I think you and I will probably talk fertilizer.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_00: Thursday, I've got Krista Swanson from the National Corn Growers Association.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_00: I'm looking forward to talking with Krista.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: And uh, so it's gonna be a big week next week.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: Tommy will keep you posted on what happens tomorrow and Friday in the markets.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_00: In the meantime, I'll miss you.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_00: I'll miss you, gang.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: Come back tomorrow for more Ag Squawk.