Latest / AIB Market Talk / Risks, Resilience and the Road Ahead in the Agriculture & Food Manufacturing sector

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Risks, Resilience and the Road Ahead in the Agriculture & Food Manufacturing sector · AIB Market Talk

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_03: You are listening to AIB Market Talk, bringing you financial market insights from AIB's experts.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_04: Hello and welcome back to our AIB Market Talk, which is being recorded on Thursday, the 26th of March.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_04: I'm Jane Kavner from our corporate treasury desk, and I am once again joined by AIB's chief economist, David McNamara.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_04: In today's episode, however, we are turning our focus to the agriculture and food manufacturing sector, a sector that entered the year with real financial strength.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_04: And within that, we will look to the opportunities and risks shaping the Irish agriculture and what it means for our farmers, our food producers, and the wider agri-economy.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_04: I'm therefore really, really pleased to welcome Dona Welton, Head of Agriculture and Food Manufacturing Sector with AIB Business Banking, and Patrick Higgins, Head of Consumer Research, Food and Beverage at Goodbuddy's.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_04: Thank you all for joining me today.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_04: Before we unpack the agri and food sector, I think I'm going to turn to you first, David, as the crisis in the Middle East has absolutely dominated global and financial markets since last we recorded.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_02: Absolutely, Jane, it has been a huge turnaround.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_02: I think we recorded our last podcast on the uh Thursday or Friday before the invasion of um of Iran.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_02: And the you know, the I suppose the situation has escalated uh considerably over the past three to four weeks.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_02: If I focus on, I suppose, the financial markets and macro impact, at least the geopolitics to others, and the most, I suppose, uh tangible uh impact has been the increase in oil prices and you know, oil prices trading consistently above$100 a barrel.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, we haven't seen as significant a move in gas prices, but they have still doubled from the levels where they were in in February.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_02: So I've been asked this question a lot in the last few weeks.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_02: Is this look just like 2022?
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_02: Are we going to see the same inflationary shock?
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_02: And it is very similar in some respects.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_02: Oil prices are close to that peak we got to four years ago, uh, but gas prices are only a fraction in Europe of where they got to back then.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_02: So that's the key point of difference.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_02: And the other considerable change is that when you think back to that time when we ahead of the invasion of Ukraine, inflation in Europe was already at six percent.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, uh, interest rates were zero, and central banks were way behind the curve in terms of hiking rates.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, this time inflation is back at 2%, interest rates are at 2%, expectations are well anchored, um, and the economy just isn't as hot as it was four years ago as you know, the the global economy reopened following COVID.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_02: So you had this perfect storm four years ago, and today is a very significant shock.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_02: Um, today, uh, particularly in oil prices, but we're not quite at the the levels that we got to um in 2022, but we will quickly see the impact in consumer inflation.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_02: We can already see it on the fore courts in terms of diesel and petrol prices.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_04: So, David, I guess then you would say we're coming into it a little bit more resiliently than we did the previous crisis.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_02: I think so, and we're we're kind of thinking about different scenarios of how this would play out from the very benign to the very severe.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_02: Um, the other thing to mention as well is that you know each oil shock is less damaging than the last because over the past 50 years we've progressively reduced our dependence on oil and gas.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_02: Now we're very dependent in in Ireland on fossil fuels.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_02: It's about 80% of all the energy we produce, it's fossil fuel-based, and we're highly reliant on markets.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but more generally in Europe and in Ireland, we have reduced our emissions, we've reduced our gas demand, for example.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so the the shock could be quite damaging and it could damage growth and it would certainly increase consumer prices.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_02: Um but you know it's it's every time we see these types of shocks, it becomes less and less, and then hopefully on the back of that you see um a greater switch or a quicker switch towards renewables and reducing our dependence on those fossil fuels.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_04: Great.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_04: And Patrick, what impact are you seeing then on the industry from an equity market perspective?
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: Uh thanks, Shane.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: Sure, no problem, and and thanks for having me on.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I guess first, maybe just it's worth noting, you know, the state of the consumer coming into this to this war.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, you know, it's often on the back of two to three years of significant cost inflation and cost delivering pressures.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so relatively fragile, but there I guess there was a an element of hope at the start of the year with inflation easing, interest rates possibly falling um later in the year that you know you could see momentum improve as the year progresses.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: The war obviously challenges that narrative now.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and it feels like you potentially could see more of a slowdown rather than any improvement, at least in the short run.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: Um and ultimately that just reflects how important the Middle East to global commodities, you know, to just give you some, and obviously the Strait of Cormuse is a critical troll point uh for global trade flows out of the region.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: So just give you some context, like oil, global oil, 20% of global oil trade uh flows through the strait, about 20-25% of LNG, liquid uh natural gas, liquefied natural gas, sorry, and then importantly from an agri perspective, about a third of globally traded fertilizer.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: Um so for from a Europe and your US perspective, you know, they aren't you the end markets for for these global commodities, most of it flows to Asia, but as as David mentioned, these are globally traded commodities, and and so you've you've seen the spike in most of these um commodities almost straight away.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_04: Thanks, Patrick.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_04: And then how is this impacting the global consumer then?
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: I like to think the impact is kind of multi-layered across the supply chain, and it obviously depends on how long the war is going to go on, but but if I think from a primary producer perspective, and Donald can comment on this more, but fertilizer is an incredibly important uh input on farm level for soil nutrition and and eventually crop yields.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: So my understanding is there's a decent amount of fertilizer either on farm or or um in channels at pre-war prices, so that gives you know some kind of um time, I guess, to um kind of see if there's a resolution to the conflict.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: But ultimately, if if it prolongs, then you will be looking at higher output prices um because of that lack of fertilizer supply.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: From a food manufacturing perspective, look, the near-term impact is limited, direct impact is limited because energy logistics is relatively small part of their cogs, but clearly it's a big input for their suppliers, whether it's fertilizer for farmers or you know, uh energy intensive packaging for glass, aluminium, plastics.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: Um the bigger unknown potential impact is what happens to consumer demand.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: As I said, we've come into this in a relatively fragile state, and there was hopes of green shoots, and trickier to call with the longer term impact of the war, definitely depends on um how long the war goes on.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: As David mentioned, you know, consumers are already feeling higher costs in terms of fuel, in terms of home eating oil, and but there will be a delay in terms of the impact on food costs, for example, because of hedges some of their food manufacturers have in place.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: Um that all said, look, I think the food and beverage sector is extremely resilient.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen that through the past two or three years.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, a prolonged conflict will be unhelpful, and but I think you know we'll see that resilience continue and possibly the trends we've seen over the past two, three years accelerate, whether that's in terms of trading down or kind of value-seeking behaviours.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_04: Okay, thanks, Patrick.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_04: Dodal, I know I mentioned earlier that the sector come into 26 following a fairly robust 2025.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_04: We'll talk to that again in a few minutes because really we need to talk about uh the fresh challenges that are facing this sector.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_04: Now, what are you seeing and and and what could we potentially see out of this across the sector?
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Jane, and uh I suppose unfortunately the impact of this conflict has been seen almost immediately at farm level in a number of areas, I suppose, first and foremost, and we've touched on it both the cost and also the concerns in relation to ongoing supply of fertilizer and then also the cost of green diesel or agricultural diesel, and I suppose from a farmer's perspective, it's um the timing is unfortunate as we're coming into a very busy time of year.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, April is a key month for our tillage farmers as they get spring crops into the ground, but also um the next number of months is is crucial also for livestock producers.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_01: As we know, we've after a number of very wet months, and uh livestock producers are getting animals out on pasture and want to drive that uh grass growth.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_01: So, what we what we've seen immediately in relation to fertilizer costs, you've seen urea has jumped by somewhere between 40-50 percent uh since the beginning of the conflict.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_01: Prices now been quoted on maybe 850 to 900 euros a ton.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um, agricultural diesel also has increased from 95 cents a litre up to 1 euro 50.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: And just to put into context, these two inputs again from a tillage farmer's perspective, um, both diesel and fertiliser costs can be up to and over 20% of overall input costs on running their business.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_01: So quite significant increases in the cost of doing their business, and again, from a tillage perspective, probably the uncertainty is they don't know what grain prices they're going to be getting next um harvest, next August, next next September.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: Um, in terms of ongoing supply, as Patrick mentioned, I suppose the country is in a relatively good position and with regard to availability of fertilizer.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: There's reports from industry that we probably have close to 60% of our annual supply in the country.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_01: However, if this prop if this conflict continues and is um prolonged, that supply it'll only last for so long.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and as Patrick mentioned, Iran is a key exporter of uh urea.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_01: Uh a third of global supplies comes through the Strait of Hormuz.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_01: But also then you have the ongoing impact, um gas increasing gas prices, and the impact that's having on all fertilizer costs, not just on urea, but also on the compounds as sulfur, phosphate, it's all very dependent, fertilizer production is very dependent on gas.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: And uh, with a prolonged conflict, you have concerns in relation to long-term infrastructural damage that's happening out in the Middle East and how quickly that can get back into production post-conflict.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_04: So, fair to say then, I suppose while the stock is in play at the minute, the longer this conflict goes on, given the price increase that you mentioned, urea 40 to 50 percent, this is gonna start to filter through the longer this conflict goes on and will be a concern obviously for the sector donor.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: 100% and particularly in relation to urea, the concerns in relation to supply is a major concern.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_01: And what may be happening or might happen on farmers that we're going to see farmers switch from using urea to using more compound fertilizers, which also have increased in price, not to the same extent, but they're still up 20-25%.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_01: And again, I suppose there has been a large focus in Ireland in getting farmers to use urea because of the sustainability benefits.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_01: So, again, that's something that we don't want to see probably happen on farm farmers moving away from using urea to using more compound fertilizers.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: And and the other thing I'll just mention is I I guess a little bit of a difference to the the last shock in 2022 is output prices, particularly cereal prices, are far lower than that shock.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: And so, from a farmer perspective, the economics just do not make sense to purchase these inputs like fertilizer when the output price is as low as it is.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_04: I understand, I understand.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_04: Dave, but as mentioned um that a third of the fertilizer is coming through the Hormuz Strait, as well as I think was it, 20% of the oil flows and 25% of LNG.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_04: So it is at the center of potential supply chain issue across all sectors.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_04: And look, if a resolution is called in the crisis, how long do you think it will be before pricing normalizes?
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_04: I mean, we've seen this happen in the past with the Suez Canal, but how long are we realistically talking before pricing normalizes and the supply chain normalizes?
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I don't have a crystal ball, Jane.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_02: No.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_02: Um typically, can I I might just pivot towards how we usually see central banks and others react?
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_02: Typically, central banks look through these oil shocks and they say, we're gonna experience a shock here, but it's gonna come back down.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_02: We're happy that expectations for inflation are anchored, and so we're happy to keep interest rates unchanged.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_02: What's interesting this time is central banks are now fighting the last war.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_02: They were burned by the experience in 2022 when they didn't hike interest rates quickly enough.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_02: And so we've seen, for example, President Lagarde talk about being ready to act very quickly.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_02: The Bank of England, with a very hawkish commentary from its monetary policy statement last week.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_02: So the policy reaction I think will be quite different to what it's been over history because we have that near-term memory of what happened in 2022.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_02: But to the to the point that the guys have met just now, it's a very different scenario where farmers, manufacturers may not be able to increase their output prices to the same extent as they did four years ago.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_02: So that means actually inflation won't reach the peaks that it did four years ago.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_02: So to bring it back to the straight of our news, a prolonged shock, and we've we're looking at this for our forecast, you know, maybe oil prices get to$150 a barrel.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_02: That when you get to those high levels, that in effect uh collapses demand or cuts demand on the other side.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_02: People can't afford to consume as much oil and gas as they did before.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_02: So that demand shock that comes on the back of that then reduces inflation over time.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_02: So if you see a very negative supply shock, that then creates its own counteracting demand shock and inflation starts to come to come back down.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_02: Whereas four years ago, the economy was running so hot, inflation just kept on kept on increasing, uh, and people had the means to pay the increased prices.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's a little bit different this time.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_04: This time.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_04: Okay.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_04: Donald, moving away from the current crisis, hard as it is, uh 2025 was a very strong year to the sector.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_04: Let's get back to the positives that we have here.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_04: Uh, talk to me a little bit about that.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, relatively strong, Jane.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: I think uh 2025 proved to be a relatively good year for um all agri-subsectors, but particularly the livestock sectors.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_01: And what we've seen over the last number of years is that pay down of debt has continued.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_01: Total debt levels when we look at the Central Bank of Ireland uh data, total debt levels on Irish farms now were around the 2.8 billion euros, which to put into the context, if you went back to 2009-2010, it was over 5 billion euros, so significant pay down of debt, and that continued into 2025.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_01: On the other side of the balance sheet, what's been happening with regard to resources or cash balances, and again, there's a very positive good news story here for the Irish agricultural sector where we've seen that cash balances has more than doubled in that time frame, also.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_01: So I suppose accordingly you'd have to say the sector is facing into the challenges that we've talked about here in 2026 in a position of relatively strength.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_01: There is good liquidity in the sector, given what I've just mentioned in relation to total debt levels and cash balances.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: But also, when we look at the financial strength of our agricultural portfolio in EIB, and one of the key indicators that we look at is the working capital utilization.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_01: And when we look at that for our agricultural portfolio, we've one of the lowest currently have the lowest, one of the lowest years of working capital utilization on record that farmers are using working capital to fund our business, which again points to good liquidity in the sector.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_01: So, yes, and we'll talk about challenges facing the sector, and we've just talked about the Middle East, um, but it's facing into it in a position of relatively good financial strength.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_04: Good strength, that's quite.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_04: And then, Patrick, notwithstanding everything that is happening in the Middle East, what does the backdrop to the food and beverage sector look like?
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, look, I I think obviously, uh as I mentioned, you know, the broader demand environment is is challenging, it it's it's resilient, but it's it's more muted than you know the historic norms.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: But having said all that, look, growth definitely hasn't disappeared, it's just become more concentrated.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: Um, one of the clearest examples is you know, demand and the consumer trend around health and wellness.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_00: That's been a secular growth trend for decades, really, but it's really accelerated since the pandemic and now been enforced and compounded again by the rising use of GLP1 or anti-obesity uh medication.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_00: Um one of the most obvious manifestations of that is is the protein kind of mega trend, as it's called.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: Um demand for high protein products has been really strong and and just become stronger and stronger every year across formats, and and it shows very few signs of slowing.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: And from an Ireland Inf perspective, then I I think that just creates a huge opportunity.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: You know, clearly the quality of Irish agri-food production, our kind of local innovation expertise means our primary producers, our food manufacturers are really well positioned to tap into that structural growth both through this cycle and and over the longer term.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_02: But just on the on the GLPs, just to pick up that point, I mean, we're we're seeing this in the macro data.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_02: Uh so last year GDP in Ireland grew by 12%.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_02: I think I might have mentioned this on the podcast before, but we're now seeing um Ireland part of that global supply chain of manufacturing of weight loss drugs, uh, specifically the Eli Lilly facilities in Ireland.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_02: So that's that's driving our exports higher.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_02: And um, you know, despite all the bad news around tariffs and and trade policy from the US, um, our exports were actually much higher last year.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_02: Probably front running of tariffs to some extent, but also the emergence of these weight loss drugs uh and their manufacturing in Ireland.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_04: Yes, it's a trend that we are seeing across many of the sectors, even hospitality that we spoke to in the last podcast, how health and wellness has in fact disrupted a little bit the uh hospitality sector as we knew it.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_04: Um looking Donald to efficiency and sustainability, how is the sector managing in this regard?
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_04: And what support do you have for customers for you know looking at sustainability?
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Jane, I suppose the emission reduction target for the sector of 25% by 2030 is very challenging.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: Um, because as we all know, or all the listeners know, there is no uh silver bullet.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_01: There is no one solution that will help the sector achieve that ambition.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_01: Water what it's going to take is uh changes to farming practices, the mass adoption and the large-scale adoption of those uh of those changes at farm level.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_01: Um that being said, farmers are definitely on that journey.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_01: We have seen since uh 2021 four consecutive years of reduction in emissions from the agricultural sector in this country, albeit that certainly has to scale up more in the second half of this decade.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_01: In terms of what AIB are doing and how we're supporting our customers and supporting the transition, I suppose we're coming at this from a number of areas, uh Jane.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_01: First and foremost, we needed to and we want to and we had to educate ourselves about what's happening on farm because the farming of today is very different to the farming of five years ago, and it will be very different in five years' time.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: And we want to ensure that no matter if our for our agri customers, no matter where you're a customer of or whoever you're dealing with in the IB, that you can expect to have a good quality, informed conversation and that we understand and have knowledge with regard to what's happening on your farm.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_01: So a big emphasis on educating ourselves about what's happening on farm.
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_01: The second thing that we wanted to do and have done and done a little bit of work on is maybe how do we inform our customers about what needs to happen at farm level and how do we bring that best-in-class information to our customers.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_01: And again, we're doing this through a number of ways, but one of the ways is that we have maybe partnered with a number of key industry initiatives, such as uh Carberry Group's Farm Zero C project, and we're the exclusive financial partner for that.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_01: We've also partnered with Tigus on their Grass 10 Sustainable Grassland Farmer of the Year program and on their signpost uh program.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_01: And all these initiatives are bringing that best in class information that we can share with our customers about what needs to happen uh on farm.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_01: And then lastly, I suppose what we have to do as a financial institution is that we have to incentivise this transition.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_01: And I suppose we we were delighted last year to launch our uh business sustainability loan for SME and agri customers.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_01: And I suppose from my perspective, it's very pleasing that since we've launched that product, that over half the applications are coming from the agricultural sector, which again just points to how bought in the farmers are on what needs to happen and how they need to adapt their farming practices to maybe future-proof this sector for the next generation.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_04: And future-proofing it they are by the sounds of it, and the and the supports that you mentioned there educate, informing clients, incentivizing all part and parcel of that, which is just so important to get behind the customers within this sector.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_04: Um Donald, just lastly for now, as well as looking out to 2026, in a word, or a couple of words, how do you see what challenges face the sector or what are we looking at?
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, volatility in farm incomes is going to be a big challenge for 2026.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: We talked about the increase in input cost inflation that's ha happening today on farms.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_01: We've also seen uh maybe downward price pressure on both dairy and the beef commodity markets over the last six months.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: So cash flow planning is going to be uh key and critical for farmers uh this year.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_01: We also have uncertainty in relation to regulations.
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_01: I suppose we're moving from one to the other.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_01: We've just put to bed the nitrates derogation for another three years until 2028.
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_01: The McCuser trade deal is still live, but also then we have a renegotiation of the common agricultural policy in the second half of the year, which is critical for the viability of Irish farmers given the importance of the common agricultural policy to family farming comes.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_01: So I suppose the other key uh issue facing Irish farming, and again an area that is EU wide is a whole area of succession.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_01: Um the average age of a farmer, there's only four percent of farmers age less than.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: 35 years of age in this country.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_01: I've actually spent the last three days in Brussels attending European investment bank meetings in relation to what financial instruments can be implemented at EU level to again incentivize and provide more access to young farmers and to incentivize farmers getting into the sector.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_04: So how does that compare then, Donald, to the age profile, say 20 years ago as a matter of interest?
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's it's increasing the whole time, Jane.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_01: So it is.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so the average age of a farmer in Ireland is late 50s, which that age profile is increasing every year.
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_01: We are, as David mentioned, we are in a country of full employment, so there's all a lot of alternative options for guys working on farms if they don't choose to go back farming.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_04: Okay.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_04: David, I had one customer question actually, which I didn't get a chance to bring up, I don't think, in this alternative routes.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_04: What alternative routes can be looked at for the sector with the hormuz.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's with great difficulty.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_02: I think the biggest alternative on oil and gas, there's an east-west pipeline in Saudi Arabia, which takes it can take rough, roughly, I think, half of the um of their existing capacity to the Red Sea.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_02: That's not without risk as well.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but there is an alternative, and Saudi is one of the largest producers.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_02: Um, for the Gulf producers such as uh Bahrain, Iraq, Iraq has potential alternatives over land via Turkey.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but for the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, it's straight of Hornous or nothing.
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_02: So it's very difficult, and particularly for uh seaborne shipments, particularly fertilizer oil, uh you can potentially use pipelines, gases largely via LNG shipments oversea.
• 23:41
  SPEAKER_02: And then not to mention the uh exports, we didn't mention exports that leave other countries and travel to the Gulf.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_02: So, you know, there's a small but growing cord of Irish agri produce that is exported to the Gulf, and you've got premium prestige products like Irish beef that are very popular in those regions, and it's so it's more difficult to get those products in as well as get those products out.
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_02: So to answer your question, very few alternatives.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_04: Okay, David, we haven't really even touched in the financial markets, there's so much to talk about in this sector, but since the last pod, you mentioned central banks have turned hawkish.
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_04: Very quickly, what are we looking at?
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so I think in terms of markets uh related to central banks, markets now pricing in um a succession of interest rate hikes, uh, about three hikes priced in for the ECB, something similar for the Bank of England, and sort of flat to marginal cuts by the Fed.
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_02: That is a very big turnaround for what markets were pricing in, which was in further interest rate cuts at the start of the year.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_02: Um, flight to quality or safe haven, dollar has benefited, dollar has fallen to around the kind of 115 handle versus the euro.
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_02: So you're seeing a little bit of kind of I suppose safe haven flows, but at the same time, you know, US treasuries haven't behaved like you would expect.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_02: Um, we've seen a weakening in uh sell-off in US treasuries, uh rising yields, and in particular, we've seen very strong volatility in UK markets and guilt markets, UK bonds, you know, the UK and other European countries seen as highly exposed to shifts in in global oil and gas prices.
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_02: Um so right now it's sort of what you would expect, Jim, but it is moving by the hour and by the day.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_04: Yeah, I guess the longer the conflict goes on, the more pressure the euro will remain under versus the dollar in the major currency powers.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, typically that's what you see.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_02: You see the dollar strengthened during times of uncertainty, but it hasn't actually strengthened to a huge extent that you might have expected maybe you know five or six years ago.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_02: So the safe haven status of the US isn't what it once was.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_04: Fair enough, fair enough.
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_04: Uh and Eurosterling, just to finish it up, I that's going to remain in around that 86, 80 AP range.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, very much trading as a pair against the dollar and other currencies.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_04: A function of, um, as they say.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_04: And Patrick, lastly, before we finish this out, the outlook for the consumer in 2026, just briefly or in summary.
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, look, clearly the the war is unhelpful and and the agri-food industry won't be immune to its effects, but the sector and the consumer in this space has repeatedly shown its resilience.
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: There will be structural growth opportunities, whether it's health, nutrition, or protein, they're going to remain intact, in my view.
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_00: And Ireland's strength in agri-food and innovation means they're well positioned to tap into that for the longer run.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_04: Super.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_04: David, Patrick, and Donald, thanks to all of you for your insights today.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_04: There is plenty to unpack and take away, a really, really informative discussion.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_04: And we'll add the irrelevant links for our publications and contacts to the notes on this podcast.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_04: Join us next month when, alongside our market update, our focus will move to the housing and construction sector.
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_04: Thanks also to all our listeners and especially those who sent us in their questions.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_04: As always, to stay up to date with the latest market developments, simply subscribe to AIB's Market Talk wherever you get your podcasts.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_03: Thanks for listening to the latest edition of AIB Market Talk.
• 26:48
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• 26:52
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• 27:03
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