Latest / Apex Insiders Podcast / China GP 2026 | Betting Preview

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China GP 2026 | Betting Preview · Apex Insiders Podcast

• F1capper: All right, F1 capper's back. We got the China GP betting preview slash no cap show. We're gonna try to record all at once. I got my mandelceto here. What's happening, dude? @dolceto: Not much another another week another round I had a terrible weekend though ⁓ Batting wise. Yeah, I didn't do too good. But gladly as a group we did really good ⁓ Collectively, let's say it. I tailed a few bats, but ⁓ yeah, it was not good on my end I had a couple unlucky breaks, but you know, it's round one a lot of unexpected stuff I'm glad you guys did good. So I could at least recoup some of the losses But but overall great race. I loved ⁓ F1capper: You did? Okay. ⁓ @dolceto: I know, I kind of like the new regulations with the battery, with the charger, you know, I know. I thought it was kind of cool. Let's see what it goes, you know, what happens. F1capper: I don't know. I'm so off every wall on this. Like, yeah, I mean, it was cool that you can use these like, super boosts and regens and all that. I get it. I get it. Yeah, and it was that was fun. I will admit that was fun. I can't say enough about that. But it I don't know, like I can sit here and talk about it if I like it or you know. @dolceto: It was like back and forth, back and forth. F1capper: If you're asking me if I like it. still not I'm still not a big fan of it. I'm still not there yet. I'm but you know, I'm enjoy I'll just enjoy for what it is. It gave us kind of a fun little first start with Leclerc and that Russell battle and just some of the other battles but everything else still doesn't feel pure to me and call me a boomer all you want. There's some pure I like some pure thing. Yeah, because like I'm the type of guy @dolceto: Yeah. Yeah. You're like old school. I know what you mean. F1capper: I'm the type of guy that still enjoys like old fashioned ICE engines. It's just what I love. I love it. I do not care for EVs. Will I ever own one? Of course I'll own an EV. I think there's cool things about it, but I just miss naturally aspirated. I'm the type that likes naturally aspirated engines, not ones with turbos even. Not to say I wouldn't own one with a turbo, but anyways, that's besides the point. anyways, Australia did give us something entertaining. ⁓ to say the least i mean it kind of captured everything we were thinking could happen too right we said we expected a lot of dnfs even though we said let's get cute with it and go over 16 and a half that ⁓ who would have thought who would have thought piastry would have not even on the formation lap was gonna wreck and then you have you know holkenberg but that is where we took advantage of the situation that presented opportunity because i myself was @dolceto: I let's start it off right away with the... Tulcanberg, yep. F1capper: was very up and down for the practices. then qualifying was a complete disaster on head to head. I don't think I hit any head to head. And that's where I was like, ⁓ wow. OK, I got a little shock there. Had four of them. But I did go in on, of course, Russell to win qualifying. So that at least hit. And then it wasn't until the race. The race, I mean, as soon as that news hit, I was on top of it. @dolceto: You did really good on good rivals though. F1capper: like Hulk, I added more to Bearman, a top 10. Piazzari was out, I was already adding to Bearman at that time too. So I just added more when Hulk was called out and then ⁓ Ferrari top six, ⁓ both. ⁓ I just kept hitting Leclerc top three, Hamilton top four, top six. I was just running with it at that point. So lot of things, but that was what we expected, right? We're coming into this race, new regulations. don't know what the hell we're gonna get, right? Now we kinda gotten sorta small sample idea, but now we go to China and we gotta do a sprint race. So bring on more volatility and it's a completely different track, opposite ends of the spectrum. ⁓ Actually, that's gonna be fine. I'm not worried about that. Now let's go see how, you know, @dolceto: Yeah, which is one of my favorites, which is... long straights that's going to be very interesting with the whole battery usage and F1capper: we're going to see these cars whenever you got a little bit more time to regen throughout the track. The track layout is completely different. It's got you're going to experience like tire degradation even more than what we saw in Australia. Australia is typically very low, like lower degradation out of all tracks. But now we're kind of increasing that. So interesting stuff. And on top of that, yes, it's a sprint race. So that makes it even harder. So now adaptability is going to be even more wide. through the sessions. @dolceto: Yeah, I mean, I've always liked China ⁓ GP. don't know. It's always like especially the first corner and the first turn as you go around like there's I don't know. I just love that track. It's a it's a fun track. but what do you before we go into it, what do you think of ⁓ Linplot ⁓ debut F1? He did fantastic. I mean. F1capper: ⁓ yeah. Dude, mean, I can't say that I'm surprised, but I am a little surprised by how consistent he was throughout the whole weekend. Like I thought there might be some rough patch or something like that at some point, but no. I mean, he was locked in, dialed in, and that was one reason why I was very bullish on this guy coming into the season. I mean, he... @dolceto: Throughout the whole weekend? Yes. Agreed. Yeah. F1capper: He has this it factor. He's obviously proven that he deserves a seat on an F1. He's hit that age now where he obviously showed it, where he's even now beating his teammate. he's the one. He's the favorite over his teammate at one race. yeah, like we had that opportunity. But again, one race. Let's see. We don't know. Right? Like, let's go see how he does. @dolceto: You called it. I mean, you called it. Yeah. F1capper: But from the eye test, the way he's just done everything this whole weekend, from every session, he's nailed it, been on it, and ⁓ I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do, so. @dolceto: Yeah, no, I agree. I was very surprised because I did miss the start of race. I watched it on a little delay and I was like, wow, this kid can drive. I was pleasantly surprised. I mean, you did pick him in our little contest. You headed it. F1capper: Yeah, same here, man. Well, we'll we'll have to recap that for sure at the towards the end. OK, that will have to recap. Recap that. Yeah. @dolceto: That will be it a little bit later. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. And we're gonna do our new picks for round two, but I was looking at the results and you did pick him there, so. ⁓ F1capper: Yeah, I did. I did. I did. ⁓ so well, let's see. Let's see. ⁓ so what I did with, ⁓ Renegade, since you got to fill his shoes is we're going to go through some lines, but before we do, I actually, it is a big shoe. I don't hear your British accent. ⁓ so no, ⁓ no. So we're going to have to see, ⁓ number one, I do have a bet. So I can call that out. @dolceto: That's a big shoes to fill, you know? ⁓ I can't do it. I can't do it. F1capper: I want to call out my free money Thursday, free money Friday pick, but I was waiting until we get along because I think I'm most likely gonna have to phone this into a friend. So why not we do it live so we can have everyone listen in. But there's some thoughts, there's some things that I wanna talk through before we do this because it is a sprint weekend and I still wanna make sure that I'm not overextending before I actually get to the weekend. @dolceto: FP1, yep. Alright, okay? Alright. Yeah, because if you think about it with those sprint weekends you have to think that the mentality of FP1 should be different than a regular ⁓ scheduled FP1, FP2, FP3 weekend. So just be careful there as you know that. F1capper: Yeah. Yeah, no, it's it's definitely like, you know, there and it might not be as bad as we think. But like, you know, they're still going to have to go through their runs because they're going to have to still learn about the medium or maybe some are going to probably put on the hards. I don't know there. could save a set of hards for ⁓ for Sunday. They're going to need it for Sunday or Saturday for us, whatever you want to call it. I don't know what time it is at. @dolceto: The setups are different. It is, it's 2 a.m. so. F1capper: It's actually say at 2 a.m. So anyways and then for the sprint they're gonna need a set of mediums you don't want to go soft because It's just a waste of time. You're not gonna get what is it like 18 laps? I think or something out of that or 20 20 laps So you're gonna have to save me you have one less so they're gonna have to be very Very and then this is what's gonna be what I think is going to happen is we're going I don't know we're not at @dolceto: Yeah, yeah, yeah, 19 at that was, yeah. F1capper: Albert Park where there are barriers everywhere and you know we'll see DNFs. This is good they have more forgiving areas but it doesn't mean that we can't see a red flag and an FP1 gets lost for a lot of programs so @dolceto: Are you saying that we should be betting over Sammy's new half again? Is that what you're saying? F1capper: I thought, you know what's funny is I thought so much about that because I'm like, know we've talked about it and we were like, whoa, we're gonna have to take some unders of course. But then the books came out and you're like, man, now we're getting into that territory, we may have to take the overs. And if you only think, if Piastri did not do what he did, I think we would have been at 17 drivers. @dolceto: Yeah, and then also last troll if he didn't go out for 10 laps then came back like that was another one F1capper: Well, yeah, like there's a lot I've you've already we already factored in two cars We're gonna yeah, right and then we're we're at 20 But then Hajar then you had Hulk then you had Piastri and then Botas, right? So that's that's your four right there ⁓ So two were just even before the race started right like we we were already dead on arrival at that point so I think Piastri obviously was the the @dolceto: The two, yeah, correct. bought us. the shocker. ⁓ F1capper: the guy. So now when we think about it, okay, so you have two, now we have to factor in about a one and a half, let's just say two potential DNFs just based on reliability slash fuckery is going to happen. That's your other two. So you're still, we're still around where the books, we were thinking of it like the books are like we still should be taking an over 16 and a half. And I might do it again, I don't know. ⁓ @dolceto: I haven't even seen the odds for that so... F1capper: I don't know. I might do it again, but let me call out my first pick. It's very simple. George Russell. I'm eyeing him even in some of the sprint race qualifying, whatever. But I did bet him for the race. He came out on bet online at minus 125 and I saw everyone else was like minus 140, minus 150, minus 175. I think even Caesar's had it at one point. And I was like, you know, it would feel silly for me not to take this right now. So I took some. Just let's see how it plays out. I still am worried about Ferrari. There's a couple things. Minus 125, so 1.8. So 1.883, yeah. yeah. So. ⁓ @dolceto: What was your odds, I'm sorry, that you took? 8 3 yeah yeah because I see it but by now live on MGM it's minus 125 right now on a Wednesday night so F1capper: There's one thing that's still, actually maybe another thing that was, so number one, Ferrari's bringing their wing, that rotisserie wing, whatever you wanna call it. yeah, yeah. Okay, so they're gonna test it. I don't care. mean, like, okay, maybe that does something, but the two biggest things that I took away from the last race into this race was, number one, Leclerc was actually battling pretty solid with @dolceto: The one that goes back, yeah, all around, yeah. Everybody's super excited about that. F1capper: with Russell before. Like it would have been it would have been it would have been interesting to see what he would have done. And now they're at a track where it's a little bit more of the suits a little bit more of their their car style, their aero. And they don't have to worry about the regen as much. But that doesn't take away from Mercedes because they just have it well oiled in a machine, right. But I just think like if they get off the line, the @dolceto: with with torch yeah F1capper: overtake and turn one, they just keep going. It could be a flip because their hard ⁓ tire pace was actually pretty damn good. They were still a little behind, but I think that's also because they were pushing hard too to try to make up some time because they messed up on the strategy. So all things right. So there's my little concern. And on top of that last year, I'm pretty sure this was when Lewis Hamilton won the sprint race. So @dolceto: Once again. Correct. Piazzu won the regular race, right? If I'm not mistaken. Okay. ⁓ F1capper: Lewis likes it here so I'm he did he won qualifying and then swept it into the race so that's what my concern is I still have some reservations so what does that mean that means maybe we should be attacking more of them in the sprint because maybe they're maybe because there's two things and that is maybe they're gonna really try hard and they get it right and @dolceto: Yeah. F1capper: Or maybe they try something wild in the sprint, see if it works. If it doesn't, they change it for the race. So now we have to flip a little bit. But at that point, you're probably gonna see Mercedes be like the favorite, so. @dolceto: yeah well i see just to to to give you some updated news ⁓ i'm looking on fendual right now and ⁓ george to win the race is minus one twelve it's even lower than my you know than other books F1capper: Talk to me. Yeah, it's, I know and there's good, listen, we're gonna, I know, we could have had a better price but I did it at the time because I was like, maybe the markets are going to adjust higher because that's what everyone was at. So that's why I didn't even, I only risked to win a unit for it. So okay, whatever. If I've got to add, which I maybe will do, but I wanna first like see what I'm gonna do. I think one of the biggest things I, @dolceto: We're recording Wednesday night, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. F1capper: I think I've got my mind talked into is doing Lewis Hamilton top three. Maybe for race or sprint. let me actually, let me get. @dolceto: It's plus 145 on Fandual right now. F1capper: so people can track with us. @dolceto: Yeah, actually I'm seeing Fanduwa has a lot better odds than MGM at the moment or DraftKings, like quite significant. Like I'm looking at Lewis to finish in the top three at like plus 125, plus 120, and then Fanduwa is like plus 145. That's quite a big difference, you know. F1capper: Yeah, no, think... Is this sharing? Yeah, this is sharing. Okay, just making sure. All right, so we're on FanDuel? Yeah. @dolceto: Yeah, I see your screen. ⁓ minus one fifteen. I've seen minus one twelve. F1capper: Ooh. Ooh. @dolceto: Maybe I need to refresh my screen. F1capper: Is this it? They only have outrights? we're not... ⁓ okay. It's like, @dolceto: No ⁓ F1capper: Hold on, gotta go to see where we're already immediately to. Alright, so they got. @dolceto: Actually this is a better number you know what on on mgm it's it's it's minus 150 for 17. Yeah F1capper: Four over? Well, what does DK, does DK have anything? @dolceto: decay ⁓ I'm going to look right now at race props number nope not yet F1capper: No ⁓ we can start getting, ⁓ dude, we're gonna be, I'm getting a little ADD here. Let me focus, let me focus. It's free money Thursday. We got driver props already for practice. Let's see. I need your help on this though. We're gonna have to compare because you know, Donkey Kong over here is what we wanna attack over MGM. So have MGM pulled up for FP1 and let's start comparing. @dolceto: Alright, let's look at it. So you got Hajar Piastri. Alright. Let's see, hold on, let go back to FP1 though because I'm on the race. Give me a second here, FP1. ⁓ F1capper: Let's see. Dang. Bearman's like, juice to hell on. @dolceto: They do have some head to head but you need to tell me which ones and then we can look at that. F1capper: Okay, ⁓ we'll call one out. Call one out. @dolceto: Alright so I'm looking at George vs. That's the first one. I mean George Russell vs. sorry Charles. F1capper: Call the first one. George versus Russell. George versus. Okay, let's go to Charles. ⁓ @dolceto: It's minus 118 for both. F1capper: Okay. ⁓ man, that's tough. I don't know what I would want to do on this one. @dolceto: I mean, you did say that you might want to attack the Ferraris early. Do you want to attack them at free practice or? F1capper: Yeah, but one thing I'm worried about is LeClaire. This might not be his favorite track. @dolceto: What about Lewis? F1capper: So I'm thinking maybe Russell is the better player. I'm not gonna force that one anyways because I think there could be other opportunities. What's the second one? @dolceto: ⁓ Charles vs Max F1capper: ⁓ right here, right in front of us. What is Charles LeClair? @dolceto: Minus 175. F1capper: I figured, yeah, I'm not going to chalk that much to it. It was even more. @dolceto: is it the same one yeah okay then let's look at Hamilton versus Kimi it's minus 118 F1capper: about the same Kimmy's a little bit favored more I don't like any of it like if anything if anything maybe I would take Lewis in this situation it's one FP one I don't know okay what's next one @dolceto: No, not a fan. Yeah, PSG and Hajar. PSG is plus 100 to minus 140 Hajar. F1capper: I don't think they have it. Yeah, they do. Minus 120. @dolceto: minus 140 for hot jar and plus 100 for PSG. F1capper: I don't know what to think of the McLarens, man. @dolceto: I mean there's there's so much unknown with them. I don't even know how how they're do but Hajar I mean He did good. I think outside of the you know, the dnf, but I Like what you say was minus 120. Yeah, i'm not gonna F1capper: I don't know. He's good. Mm-hmm. I'm not gonna fuck with it. Yeah, it's about the same. It's just not like too far off Let's find we want to find one that's wildly off. Well, give me one @dolceto: there you go! ⁓ Beerman vs Hulkenberg let's see what we got there. Books ⁓ similar, minus 118 for both then we have ⁓ Gasly over Science F1capper: minus 120. Yeah. @dolceto: Minus 180 though. F1capper: Ew. Yeah, I don't want to talk that much to Gastly. @dolceto: Yeah, not a no. ⁓ F1capper: And I do think Williams is going to struggle here, but I do not want to take that bet on. @dolceto: Okay let's go to Lewis Hamilton vs Max. Minus 140 Lewis to 100 Max. F1capper: Wait, Lewis is minus 140? To max? Wow. @dolceto: Yeah. Correct. F1capper: Okay, so then let's see what maxes to anyone else comparables. Yeah, I mean. ⁓ @dolceto: the clear. F1capper: But he's favored over Kimmy. While Kimmy was favored over Lewis, this is where we get into the weeds, my friend. ⁓ @dolceto: ⁓ yeah he i mean no well kimmy and louis were kind of even at minus 118 F1capper: and maybe it was no, but on, on, on DK, I'm saying they have Kimmy favorite over Lewis, but Lewis is a heavy favorite over Max. And then Max is a favorite over Kimmy and on DraftKing. So what I'm trying to imply here is DraftKings is basically @dolceto: Charles was heavy Max, correct. F1capper: probably giving you a gift with Lewis Hamilton over in Kimmy or it's Kimmy over Max, whichever one you wanna pick. That's what I'm trying to call out. That's why I love DK. Because they don't know how to, don't, they don't, I mean, that doesn't make any sense. @dolceto: Yeah. Later Dan. yeah what about ⁓ what you got on let's go see here liam lawson and bortoletto F1capper: I'd love some Bort, even though I'm not... @dolceto: minus 118 same I like him here F1capper: You see, well, we can get them on DK plus 110. @dolceto: plus one then well that's even better ops F1capper: Should we, is that a free money Thursday play? Let me throw some on that. ⁓ Let's do a little, we're not gonna go crazy of course, a little half unit. @dolceto: Yeah, I like it. I like it. Let me go. F1. Practice. ⁓ To win half or just risk half? Yeah, okay. Okay. Let me find it on on on DK F1capper: No, we're getting plus 110 risk half. That's it. Yeah, we'll do that. God dang, Linblad is minus 195 to Hulkenberg. @dolceto: There it is. Yes. Yes, I saw that too. F1capper: You know what? The more I think about it, do kind of want this Hamilton over Kimmy play. I kind of want to, but I'll keep thinking about it. @dolceto: Yeah, that's all then the team had to heads. Let's go look at ⁓ F1capper: I'll keep thinking about it. Okay. top markets like I'm about doing maybe Lewis Hamilton top three that's a plus 175 is pretty decent. @dolceto: Let me ask you what are the odds for for fp1 head to head on dk ⁓ album and sides Because there's always yeah, because there is usually a big discrepancy between the two Like the books don't know how to F1capper: Album in the signs? ⁓ let me see that. Yeah, I can also look at bet online too, because I think signs is favor. Actually, there's minus 110 there. @dolceto: Because he's minus 135 here, sciences F1capper: ⁓ nice. It's about minus 115 on bet online. @dolceto: And what albums? P-P-Plus 105 or something? F1capper: Should we be backing Limblad over Lawson 2 while we're at it? @dolceto: Where is it? Let me find it here It's minus 140 on my end at MGM Yeah, what's on DraftKings F1capper: Really? C minus 120. Yeah, it's about the same as bet online. Wow. Okay. I could just do it on bet online. @dolceto: Are we doing it? ⁓ I'm better live. Well, I'm gonna do it on DraftKings. Why not? Hold on, I need to... ⁓ They're asking me to authenticate. ⁓ F1capper: Okay, just do it for me. Do it for me. Yeah, let's do it. Let's do it. No. Yeah. @dolceto: Make sure that I'm not... Wow, that's not bad. Do you want the same... F1capper: Yeah, same amount. We're just going to run it. I'm to hate him the minute he Doesn't do well. got race ⁓ sprint race matchups too. Hell yeah. Man. Part of me wants to just go Lin-blad the entire, entire sessions. @dolceto: Let me find them here. F1capper: I mean, it should be 115. Qualifying, let's see what his qualifying is. race will be 115. Yep. @dolceto: You want 50 to win or 50 risk for Olimblad? F1capper: What is it, minus 110? @dolceto: It's minus, I don't know, it's 183. So it's minus one, two, and okay. So there you go. F1capper: To win, to win, to win. We're do to win. @dolceto: Alright, they're both done. You got them in. Look at this life, life betting as we go. F1capper: Okay, okay, okay. Yeah, man, this is fun. This is fun. What do you think about a top three? Let's go see what opportunity we have. What do we have? @dolceto: Let me look at that. Let me go to MGM top 3. I mean Hamilton is at even odds. Man, look at Charles and Georgia, minus 185. Do we pick Antonelli? I don't know. Oh, look at this. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. Let's look at this. Drivers to not finish in the top 3. Yes and no markets on bad MGM. F1capper: Yeah, I just... ⁓ What is his at? What is his at? What? Talk to me. Talk to me. ⁓ Okay. @dolceto: Charles to not finish no it's plus 130 George is mine is plus 130 Let's look at Lewis is minus 140 to not be in the top three max is minus 200 F1capper: Wait, what was, ⁓ what was LeClaire's? @dolceto: plus 130. to not be in the top three for FP1. F1capper: Okay, ⁓ man, that's not enough. It's not enough. ⁓ @dolceto: Okay, how about this then? Let me ask you this. These drivers to finish in the top three are Russo and Leclerc plus 140 when you combine them. both, doesn't matter the order just to be in the top three. Yeah. Russo and Ham are 240. Russo and Kimi are 240, no. F1capper: in the top three. What is it? Plus 140? Hmm. I wouldn't do that. Well, the only reason why is you can get Lewis Hamilton plus 175 and that's your top three, right? You don't have to worry about Russell if something happens. Yes, it's two to one, but I just don't know if I want to do that. @dolceto: Yeah. Okay, so while you're a fan of the top six Mercedes and the Ferraris to finish in the top six is plus 100 for FP1 F1capper: All of them? Wow. @dolceto: I mean yeah, you're picking four out of six guys to be the Mercedes-Benz. F1capper: Can you actually parlay DK1s? @dolceto: I don't know, I could try. ⁓ You have to give me a moment here. F1capper: because if you, yeah, this is minus 208. So that is, and then you said Ferraris. See, you can get it better at plus 130. @dolceto: But hold on, where do you see it? F1capper: on DraftKings if you go to the practice free practice lines. @dolceto: Okay. ⁓ yeah, I see it. see it. Yep. ⁓ so you could do a... F1capper: And then you could do all four and you get plus 130. Exactly. So we think. @dolceto: Okay well then let's build one where we don't need to do all four. So I mean George is gonna be it but let's yes let's use George as a filler to just boost it up right we know George is gonna be in top six right or or we don't F1capper: Okay. I don't know, I would hope so, but I also have this weird feeling they do something crazy and they do like, their soft run so fast and then they just, they're like, we don't care, we feel good, we're just going to, that's what scares me about the top three. And that's why I'm like, maybe Ferrari will be the one that still, you know, tries to do their plan where they go later. I don't know. Or do need to be thinking way outside the box and be like, why aren't we taking like, I don't know. Yeah, or I don't know, Piazzaria and like Max or something. No, that sucks. @dolceto: Don't, Maclaurus. ⁓ yeah psg and max are just just get you minus 105 F1capper: Piazzery and like no see this is this crap. You know what it's not even worth it if you're gonna do anything Hamilton, Hajar, maybe, not both. Well, what is that? I'm just actually kidding. Wow. @dolceto: This is interesting though, I did not know that. The both are plus 1.14. F1capper: plus 114 for both of them? @dolceto: Lewis and Hajar, yeah? When you parlay them. F1capper: ⁓ but that's, I was doing like top three. was like, what would that be? Yeah. Just what if he, what if you did. @dolceto: Oh, top top 3, yeah, the top 3 it's uh... it's uh... It's plus 11.37. That's juicy. F1capper: Damn. Look at this one. This is the one where we should just throw like some beer money on. ⁓ wait. Top three Hamilton Piastry. @dolceto: What is it? F1capper: 50. Yeah, that would be nice. No, okay. We're getting we're getting crazy. We're getting wild here. Okay. All right. Well, we Okay, so I think we've got our place for the matchups. I don't know if I want to parlay top sixes just yet, especially with the session. We don't know. Take your chance on plus odds. Don't maybe don't parlay anything like that. @dolceto: Yeah, yeah, we're going to generate mode F1capper: And then. Oh, the winning margin, I, do you have a winning margin by chance anywhere else? It's minus 145 on DK and it's 0.25. That's disgusting. @dolceto: on on ⁓ for FP1 I don't have margin here at least I don't see a margin but ⁓ there is yeah ⁓ what was the number you're looking for F1capper: not qualifying. The over. I said under, but over. @dolceto: for what was the number though. F1capper: ⁓ point two or point two five @dolceto: so that it's minus 110 F1capper: for .25. @dolceto: or more, yeah. Minus 110. F1capper: ⁓ Yeah, I'm gonna take this on bet online. I think I'm gonna try it again It's minus 120, but it's point two. It's point two. So the you're not having that Yeah, so and you're getting around the same price at point two five so I'll just take it just for that reason That's another one. I'll play Fastest speed. I don't know if I want to mess with that even though ⁓ @dolceto: See how goes, yeah. Yeah, the half. Yeah. I know what you mean. Yeah. F1capper: Yeah, I don't want to mess with it you guys can it's kind of everyone's at like 850 I'm just if I had to pick I Mean, it's hard not to ignore Maybe Alpine again, maybe Racing Bulls. but yeah, I don't wanna mess with a car without. Wow, Racing Bulls is at plus 180 now, Haas plus 180. These are just not even good. @dolceto: Yeah. F1capper: ⁓ If you're going to take it, you could try the actual driver itself. mean, take a shot at, I mean, maybe if you want to have, if you want to get Frisky, try it with Pierre Gasly. If you think that they might have be a little bit better here, you can, but yeah, but it's, does, it's not a winner. Pierre Gasly probably is going to be P10 anyways. So if I had to pick from this list, I mean, I'm probably going to, I'm going to, I would probably take, take on Gabe or Lynn Blad. @dolceto: for FP1. I mean, you could. F1capper: if you want to. ⁓ sprint race. I don't think I'm gonna do anything with the sprint race. ⁓ @dolceto: Yeah, same. It's such an odd time even the sprint race. Well, actually the actual sprint race is a good time, the qualifying, the actual race qualifying is like four in the morning. It's like, come on. Like it's so, so late. F1capper: Let's see, I just want to see what the... Let me go to sprint here. What is Lewis? Lewis is at plus 475. I don't mind that. If you're gonna pick something outside of a George Russell to win, I'm eyeing Lewis. Yeah, I'm just eyeing it. think he's... For Sprint, I mean, I don't wanna place anything on him because obviously we know how Sprint, and also remember the Sprint... @dolceto: for the qualifying. F1capper: is going to be the medium tires or shorter timeframes, right? Like you gotta go medium, medium and Zensoft. So what kind of performance are we gonna say? And the reason why I kind of liked it is because they went out there, ⁓ their first runs in qualifying in Q1, they actually went out there on mediums and they looked pretty damn good. They were like still, could clearly, I was like, wow, there was. clearly ahead of everyone on the grid except for Mercedes at this point, even on the medium. they just, Hamilton just looks dialed into this car. He looks so much better from testing to now. He's looked much better. Yes, qualifying had sucked, but it wasn't even just for Lewis Hamilton. It was also for LeClaire. that's the one thing that kind of scares me. I'm just. That's where my head is at is if you're going to take a chance, you could take the chance on the 475. You can wait and maybe he does crappy in the sprint qualifying. You might be able to get him at six to one, but I don't see it unless he is P 16 or you know, he's going to be in that range still between 475 to 800. Maybe if he depending on where how bad he does, but if he does well, obviously it's going to get shorter. So @dolceto: Yeah. Yeah, what about race? I got one for race. ⁓ I like ⁓ Olli Biermann to finish in the top 10 at minus 105. F1capper: What do we got? I'm ready. That's just gonna be an auto thing for me moving forward. I've been doing it since last season, so I'm gonna keep rolling with it. @dolceto: until he fails us i think that's easy i was just even looking at last year's race because i was like how did he do and he didn't do great in qualifying and uh and and then boom he finished in top eight and i'm like okay that's uh all right he literally can't so i'm at minus 105 it's just a no-brainer F1capper: He didn't. He didn't. Yeah, the guy knows the guy can drive. He can drive, man. He can drive. Well, let's see top finishes. Do they have top 10? Minus 110. ⁓ Let's check. Let's check the... ⁓ Bet Rivers. Let's see. What do they have for top 10? Where's points? God, all these sites are so, they're so terrible. @dolceto: ⁓ their websites are garbage. Their website is a... For a race? Scroll up, scroll up on the very top and then there's a little scroll you'll see all the market. ⁓ yeah, no, you have to go to race first. F1capper: Where's top 10? Yes. I am in race. @dolceto: Huh, weird, I see mine. Mine has top 4, top 6, top 10. What else is there? There's... So there's top 2, top 6. I have... Well, it's... I'm using decimal, so there's... Which one are you looking for? Bearman is 180, so minus 125. F1capper: I don't know, just tell me what it is for Bet Reverse. Yeah, what is it one point? Bearman. Bearman, top 10. He's getting up there. Minus 105 is actually not bad. @dolceto: Yeah, he's a dad on on fan duo and and DraftKings Yeah, so what about yeah, ⁓ no Looking at it. What about ⁓ Your boy Ilin bot he's also up up there ⁓ Do we trust it or was it F1capper: Okay, okay. yeah, go ahead. ⁓ I don't want to, I don't want to do that. I'll tell you what I am in love with is what my back alley is giving me for a top four bet. I can get Lewis Hamilton at minus 105. That's actually kind of nice. I won't do it just yet though. I don't know. Like I, my mind says he's going to, he's going to, but. @dolceto: Bye. F1capper: I don't know. I don't know if I'm ready to do that. I'd rather just, why not just take the odds against Lawson because he's then has to beat Lawson if he's in the top 10. And if we're implying that Bearman is gonna be in the top 10, so Bearman, know, him and Bearman are beating Lawson. So you can get just his odds against Lawson around the same price and you don't have to worry about it. Maybe he gets P11 and still beats Lawson. Or maybe we're just totally wrong. Lawson is actually comes out here and blows it out of the water and he gets P6. Well, then we all miss that. but that's just where my head's at with it. But I don't mind it. If you just want to do it just because it's a top 10, I don't want to have too many top 10 plays. I'm just going to stick with most likely Baramund for it. But I want to, I'm going to be patient. I'm going to be patient. think I'm going to wait. @dolceto: Yeah. Yeah, I'm just looking at... ⁓ Yeah, Berman, I mean, that's a thought of play. F1capper: see. @dolceto: Yeah because Bearman even if he finishes in 9, 10 odds are not gonna go down much lower I don't think. Well they will go down maybe slightly F1capper: Yeah, ⁓ and they're pricing him at minus 165, minus 150. I don't want that for Lindblad. ⁓ But yeah, I can also get it at minus 105 Bearman. They're already implying that Lawson and the Racing Bulls are just gonna be better than Haas, which is probably possible. But I don't trust Lawson. I think he just, he just always has something that goes wrong. @dolceto: Yeah. Whoa. F1capper: Yeah. @dolceto: I mean I do like him I'm glad that he's on the grid I think that I mean he's young I know it was this is second year ⁓ well technically third year right second four year but I don't know I like the guy I don't have anything against him is that plus okay to be classified are we worried about anybody not classifying F1capper: For sure. Yeah, but he's, yes, technically second year, but yes, yeah. Yeah. What else? @dolceto: Anything we've heard in the news? on Apex insiders? Nothing? Metro times? F1capper: No, not yet. think the, the, there's going to be, there's going to be a DNF. just, it's just like, ⁓ throw a dart at this point because who's next. We've had an Audi, we've had a Red Bull racing. mean, throughout the practice sessions, Williams had issues. You had a McLaren with issues. Like you've almost had half the grid with some thing go wrong between practice and the race. @dolceto: Yeah. Carol... ⁓ Yeah. F1capper: That's what's kind of scary is going into the, yeah, to China. don't know. @dolceto: Yeah. Yeah. And being a sprint weekend, you just don't know. Like, you know, it's a... F1capper: Yeah, that's just a dart. You don't know who's going to be the first to retire and all that crap. So yeah. @dolceto: Yeah, interesting stuff, yeah. Good, good. All right, so. F1capper: Um, what else? So did we miss anything? We talked about still leaning the classified over 16 and a half. We'll wait. I'm going to wait because I think the, if maybe we have to, maybe you have to be on standby. Maybe you can't sleep just in case I need to put in my classification bet. @dolceto: Yeah, I mean, that's a pretty good bet. But then here comes my point, you're asking for quarter of the grid to be out again. Like you're asking for five guys to be out. Like ⁓ I know it's their cars, things break, the accidents happen, but like, are we gonna see it in back to back races? don't know. I mean, I don't know. It could be in the first turn. How many were last year, I guess. Let's look at. F1capper: That's how this... I'll tell you this. If bet online gives me the opportunity for plus odds at over 16 and a half. I'm going to attack it especially for them because or wait no I think it's yeah because bet online you have a disadvantage if you're trying to go under classifications because they don't count classifications they just say the entire race but maybe over, actually this, whatever. Yeah, actually it's the other way too. @dolceto: Well, to give you ⁓ a note, last year only one car retired and we had the disqualifications, right? With the Ferrari, remember with the underweight, I'm just looking at it now. ⁓ like, something to think about, so I don't know. George was top three, Max was fourth. Interesting. F1capper: Yeah, yeah. Yeah, well, we're getting to our point where we should probably. @dolceto: do our little pick'em game that we have. Let's do a quick shout out. So the first week you won 2 3. We had a few pushes. ⁓ We had a couple that we didn't count because of the whole the piastry issue, Hulkenberg. So I didn't really count those, right? But you're leading 3 to 2. You're leading me here. All right. And then let's go for... ⁓ F1capper: Yes. Yes, yes. Okay. @dolceto: For the you know for the two points. Let's go We will be very stopping versus the Claire F1capper: for Stappen vs Leclerc. @dolceto: Two points. F1capper: I will go LeClaire. @dolceto: Select layer. ⁓ F1capper: Did I make a mistake? @dolceto: I'm going with Verstappen. I'm going with Verstappen here But just because I trust Max more than the Ferrari strategy team, even though the Ferraris are better Don't give me like right now from what we saw. Okay, we talked about it Lawson versus Limbaugh. I think we know who we're picking here It's Yep, so we're I'm going with you. We're both gonna do the same thing here the next pick science versus Alban F1capper: Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I am not picking Lawson. I'm picking Lindblad. Signs But all bun all bun won the last matchup though, right technically in the race Yeah ⁓ he ended up Wow. Okay. Okay @dolceto: science, that's what I'm leading to. ⁓ yes no no science science wonder yeah ⁓ actually no i think it was alban you're right yeah yeah i think so yeah so i'm we we both picked science last time and i'm gonna pick him again so both us versus paris i'm gonna stick with paris that's who i'm picking with don't know where you're going but F1capper: Paris, Checo. @dolceto: you going there too okay good bareman versus hulkenberg F1capper: Barrowman versus Holkenberg. This is race, right? @dolceto: Race, this is only race, this is fun, that all. I tried... F1capper: I gotta take barman if i'm gonna be going with this top 10 I gotta take them are we all are we on the same ones still okay @dolceto: Yeah, I'm Not right now, no, we still we have the Verstappen and the Claire ⁓ Bortolittle versus Hulkenberg I think that we'll both pick Bortolittle here or no F1capper: Okay. ⁓ I'm actually here, I'll go, I will go Holkenberg this one. I'll go the other way. @dolceto: ⁓ you are? Okay, okay, okay. Okay. ⁓ I'm gonna go with Bartoletto just not to be but just how we're going. Piastri versus Norris. This is gonna be interesting one. F1capper: You okay? Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's fine. That's fine. man ugh ⁓ i'm gonna take piastry @dolceto: You gonna go with PS3? I was thinking about it, but I'll go with Norris. F1capper: Yeah. Yeah, I'll go piastry. @dolceto: ⁓ Kimi vs Leclerc F1capper: Oof. I will take I'll take Kimmy. I'm gonna take it. I'm gonna take it. @dolceto: You gonna do it? I'm going the other way. I'm going with the clear because I'm right. I'm right. I don't like the 19 year old. Yeah. Then then we got Hamilton versus Piastri. F1capper: I don't blame you. Dolcetto, Dolcetto is that's actually this is perfect and it works out. I'll take Hamilton. @dolceto: I think we both will hear on that one. and based on what we talked about, yeah. F1capper: I think I'm gonna take it. I'm a Tifosi backer for Lewis Hamilton's sake. That's it. @dolceto: ⁓ Yeah, since the Mercedes days. And last one, will be Hamilton versus Hadjar. F1capper: Yeah. I will take Hamilton. @dolceto: you're going to do okay I will will do the same so F1capper: I can't wait for him to qualify P16. @dolceto: And then then then do not finish the race and then everything goes downhill It's gonna screw so many bets, too F1capper: God, I just, I expect, I know he is. That's why I'm like, I'm stung from last, know, last year I actually didn't bet him that much. I think it was like years prior, whatever, after 2022, where I'm like, you back this guy and he's just painful at times. And I still have that in the back of my mind, but what I'm seeing from him is so different than what it should be in the back of my mind right now. @dolceto: Yeah. Yeah, and I was gonna ask you like the last week we did it, but ⁓ who do you think from the bottom teams will get into the top 10? As a prediction. F1capper: And what are we claiming bottom teams though? Just Cadillac, Aston Martin, what? @dolceto: I'm just let's not call them bottom teams like people drivers that are looking from the outside like that are not always in the top 10 mid-tier teams Yeah, let's call on them down mid-tier teams F1capper: mid-tier Yeah. ⁓ well, I still think red racing bull is, it's got something. So limblad, limblad in there. And for some reason, I feel like hostas isn't going to qualify well, but they will do something in the race. I think they, they understand their car when it comes to race pace. That's always a big focus of theirs is to make sure qualifying doesn't mean shit. If you can't get up in the, in the grid on the. @dolceto: So you kind of, okay. F1capper: during race day, so. @dolceto: Yeah, and we did touchpoint on on on a winner with george, you know At the start of the podcast. So I I think we're gonna stick with that one until it fails us or odds are minus 200 or F1capper: Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I like it. And I think that if you know, I fully endorse, think Maxwell is the one that's one of the first that did that where he's got what the race he's got sprint sprint race or qualifying. He's got it basically everything. But actually, he has it all except for the sprint race, I think he said. He has sprint quality all. And I was like, OK, I'm sure I don't blame you. Don't blame him. @dolceto: Yeah. F1capper: But I am, I'm very, very confident that you will see a Ferrari in the top three, of course, and I do think it is gonna be Lewis this time. I think he's the one that steps up for the team this weekend over Leclerc, but also I wouldn't count out Leclerc, so. @dolceto: Yeah, as long as they don't f up the strategy, they should be doing good. F1capper: Yeah, and then you're gonna see Red Bull still try to be in the mix, but one thing I think though is they might struggle a little bit with degradation during the race, but we'll find out. @dolceto: Yeah, excited about it. 3 a.m. local time here in the Eastern time zone. So, you know, I have set up many, many alarms. Hey, the community bet did win last week. We're 1 and 0. It was the max, max top six. Yeah. F1capper: Yeah. Which was ⁓ what was that again max max top six, which is funny because as soon as that ⁓ piestry and hulk stuff happened and everything I was like i'm just gonna put max top six. This is gonna happen, right? He's he's two less drivers. He has to to get through and then what do know community bed? I was like perfect. I feel good now. I feel good. Yeah Yep awesome @dolceto: ⁓ there you go. That was a signal for it. So, cool. Alright, well, I think this was fun. We have a break next week, but then we go right back to... ⁓ It's Japan, isn't it? Yes. Suzuka. ⁓ F1capper: Yeah. Japan and then TBD but it's not looking too hot. It looks like April is gonna be a vacation month but we'll still try to produce some content. We'll still try to be around. ⁓ There is IndyCar still that will happen. Maybe not throughout the entire month of April but we'll still have that. And maybe you can listen in to some NASCAR because I have been diving into it. I've been hating my life with it at certain points. @dolceto: Yeah, with the two correct. F1capper: with it to start the season, but we're still gonna go after it. ⁓ @dolceto: Yeah, well good luck with that one. F1capper: I mean, it's enjoyable. I've been enjoying it, but I've not enjoyed some of the results I've endured. It's not been fun. awesome, man. And then get into the Discord. I will be doing a lot of just, you know, it's gonna be really just striking whenever I see things this weekend. I do not wanna get cute with it, but grid rival. So I will have grid rival picks. I think I have one already at, yeah. @dolceto: Yeah. All right, well. You did great round one. You did great. F1capper: Hit a big one on underdog. I don't know if that's going to keep happening. Of course, that was just a shot in the dark, but we'll have we're doing pretty well with pick them. So again, just getting to the discord. And we also have launched our premium where you get all the data up to news insights, FIA documents near real time that are just going to be constantly coming to you throughout the race weekend, as well as any of the tips that we have. ⁓ and a premium chat where we will all be talking about, you know, when lines drop, right? Like live odds, everything, like it's in a smaller group. So you have a little bit of a time to actually attack on the odds versus being in the pool of thousands of people, so. @dolceto: live odds, anything. We did see it this morning. I looked at it and somebody was discussing odds and said, oh my gosh, we need to hit this before it moves and 10 minutes later the odds moved and it's like, if you missed it, you're going from paying minus 110 to minus 165. it's just, those are the things. And the premium chat is not only us, it's all other guys who are there who have a lot of knowledge of F1. F1capper: It's gone. Gone. Right. Yep. away it is. Yeah, yeah, yeah, we still have Bradford. We still have Maxwell. are there. There are there's those two are what I call the the ⁓ snipers when it comes to trying to make sure like I don't get it. They just have like this alert or something in their head when it's like lines have dropped. It's like, ⁓ I've already got this. I'm like, how did you put it? I need your secret. Yeah. What? I just checked five minutes ago and I saw nothing. So. @dolceto: all these guys. How did you do it? Sending a screenshot, I bet it. I'm like, how? Yeah. ⁓ Yeah, yeah, cool. F1capper: Alright man, well this was great ⁓ and we'll see you tomorrow night. I'll be late. I'll be late to FP1. So again, get into Discord. We're gonna have more plays. @dolceto: Yes. Yep. Have fun.