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Cowboys/Eagles NFL + MLB + WNBA Best Bets Thursday 9/4/25 · Toadstool Sports

0:00
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
0:06
Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
0:08
Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
0:11
Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
0:15
Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
0:17
Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
0:20
Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
0:25
Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
0:29
Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends the slump
0:34
Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached a
0:37
Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my Bruins hat Man.
0:42
Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins
0:45
Speaker 1: arch hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
0:47
Speaker 1: know it's It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
0:51
Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
0:53
Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
0:56
Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
0:59
Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
1:03
Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go
1:07
Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
1:10
Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
1:13
Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore.
1:15
Speaker 2: The slump, yes, the slump discontinuous. The slump continues. Somebody
1:20
Speaker 2: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
1:24
Speaker 2: should do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
1:32
Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, it's towed back with you better off dead. Thursday.
1:38
Speaker 1: I've spelt it wrong of the title. I'm looking at
1:39
Speaker 1: him like, wait, that doesn't look right. Thursday. I'll fix
1:42
Speaker 1: it later. Thursday, September fourth, Oh my god, it's NFL day. Man,
1:49
Speaker 1: it's the start of the NFL. I don't even have
1:51
Speaker 1: any NFL hats because I have been rooting against the
1:54
Speaker 1: Patriots for so long because I did not like Bill
1:58
Speaker 1: Belichick and Tom Brady. But with the newly assembled the
2:03
Speaker 1: team that they have there, I mean I'm more neutral.
2:06
Speaker 1: I mean maybe I'm becoming semi positive towards him again.
2:09
Speaker 1: Who knows, especially if they win me any money this
2:12
Speaker 1: year or win me any picks bets spending out of
2:15
Speaker 1: I'm actually putting my money on them. We did win
2:17
Speaker 1: the play yesterday on the show. Probably got lucky, I mean,
2:21
Speaker 1: did get lucky. Probably shouldn't have won Toronto, no sweat
2:25
Speaker 1: Baby Toronto. In the first five innings. They actually wound
2:27
Speaker 1: up winning the game and covering the half run in
2:31
Speaker 1: the first five innings despite being down five to nothing.
2:35
Speaker 1: I think in the second inning, Bieber not getting it
2:37
Speaker 1: done for me. I don't know how many of the
2:39
Speaker 1: runs were earned. I don't know if he actually pitched terribly.
2:41
Speaker 1: I didn't even look at his Maybe I'll look at
2:43
Speaker 1: it right now, real quickly. I don't know what his
2:45
Speaker 1: stat line actually looked like in the game yesterday, because
2:49
Speaker 1: I just looked at it and I was like, what
2:51
Speaker 1: just happened in this game? And then Toronto was still
2:53
Speaker 1: down five to three going into the top of the
2:55
Speaker 1: fifth inning, and they scored three runs in the top
2:58
Speaker 1: of the fifth. They were they were down five to
3:02
Speaker 1: one into the fourth inning as well as oh man, uh,
3:07
Speaker 1: Bieber like his stat line was actually still better than
3:10
Speaker 1: the Lattel's. Bieber actually lasted longer. They actually left him
3:14
Speaker 1: in despite allowing those runs. Yeah, I mean, just crazy
3:18
Speaker 1: that he wanted to be allow in runs like that.
3:20
Speaker 1: I'll have to dig into it more, but I'll take
3:23
Speaker 1: the win. We'll move on from that. Football. Football is
3:27
Speaker 1: gonna turn this thing around, man, I mean, come on, like,
3:29
Speaker 1: it's got to college football was great last year. Week
3:33
Speaker 1: one is like whatever. Week one. I mean, it's not
3:37
Speaker 1: usually this bad, but usually it's mediocre basically, and then
3:43
Speaker 1: we move on and keep going. We're gonna get We're
3:45
Speaker 1: gonna get it going. Man. I'm gonna give a one
3:48
Speaker 1: baseball play today. It's a short card, short board, and
3:51
Speaker 1: I am gonna give out a play. In the NFL
3:53
Speaker 1: games you could see here. This is actually one of
3:55
Speaker 1: the games I actually like this week. And you guys
3:58
Speaker 1: are not gonna like my NFL plays. Man. That's the
4:01
Speaker 1: thing NFL. Everybody gets really really fired up about it.
4:04
Speaker 1: It's a very publicly bet sport, so I go very
4:08
Speaker 1: contrarian in the NFL. So you probably already know what
4:10
Speaker 1: my play is gonna be on the game tonight, and
4:12
Speaker 1: I think it's a solid way to look at the game.
4:14
Speaker 1: But we'll start today with the breakdown. As I start
4:18
Speaker 1: crying again, obviously, we'll talk about WNBA WNBA coming down
4:23
Speaker 1: the stretch. Man. I'm not sure iman I have any
4:25
Speaker 1: more WNBA plays. I know Alex guy who's been in
4:28
Speaker 1: the chat recently on the Twitter side of things, I
4:31
Speaker 1: think he wants more WNBA plays. I know my WNBA
4:36
Speaker 1: plays have been winners this year, definitely up in the
4:39
Speaker 1: WNBA this year, but I've been very selective with it.
4:42
Speaker 1: I know I haven't given it a play for a
4:44
Speaker 1: long time, but I just I need to find like
4:46
Speaker 1: a really good spot and I find more of them
4:48
Speaker 1: early in the season. There will be some of the
4:50
Speaker 1: playoffs though, because it's gonna be similar to NBA playoffs
4:53
Speaker 1: where you can zigzag in situations and stuff. I think
4:56
Speaker 1: it'll work nicely, although I have not actually been a
5:00
Speaker 1: WNBA better before, so we will see. But we have
5:04
Speaker 1: a Phoenix at Washington. This is a game where Washington
5:08
Speaker 1: they're out of it. Man, They're not gonna make the playoffs,
5:10
Speaker 1: so Washington they have sort of nothing left to play
5:15
Speaker 1: for it. But this is a home game. AGA's a
5:16
Speaker 1: good team, So will they show up for this game?
5:19
Speaker 1: I don't entirely know. But they are also returning home
5:21
Speaker 1: from a road trip. They're on a huge loss streak,
5:24
Speaker 1: seven games in a row that they've lost. Maybe they'll
5:27
Speaker 1: be pissed off about it and want to show up
5:28
Speaker 1: for a game against a good team, But they're returning
5:31
Speaker 1: on from a road trip. And you know, I always say,
5:33
Speaker 1: returning on from a road trip, especially cross country like this.
5:36
Speaker 1: They went to the Pacific Coast, you have family stuff
5:39
Speaker 1: to get back to, our home life, to get back
5:41
Speaker 1: to whatever the case may be, and that becomes a distraction.
5:45
Speaker 1: Especially I think it becomes even more of one if
5:47
Speaker 1: you know you're out of it and you are gonna
5:49
Speaker 1: be less focused potentially to begin with. So I do
5:51
Speaker 1: think this is a bad spot for Washington Phoenix. They're
5:55
Speaker 1: on the wind streak right now, so if you're gonna
5:57
Speaker 1: play the streaks, you know, uh, they're on five game
6:00
Speaker 1: win streak. They've been playing some good basketball. They've won
6:02
Speaker 1: seven of their last eight games. But they are coming
6:05
Speaker 1: off beating New York and then Indiana, although of course
6:07
Speaker 1: we know Indiana that was without Cunningham and Clark. Phoenix
6:11
Speaker 1: starting a road trip, which does tend to be a
6:13
Speaker 1: focused spot. So the momentum may very well continue for Phoenix,
6:17
Speaker 1: and Phoenix does need to keep winning if they want
6:20
Speaker 1: to play for seeding in the playoffs. They're gonna make
6:22
Speaker 1: the playoffs right now. I believe they're tied for either
6:26
Speaker 1: the two or the three seed right now. Whatever wherever
6:28
Speaker 1: Vegas is at right now, so they need to keep
6:31
Speaker 1: winning for that reason. So I think overall the lean
6:34
Speaker 1: in this game would be the Phoenix. They are up
6:37
Speaker 1: from nine to nine and a half here. But the
6:39
Speaker 1: problem is, when you have a team that's won a
6:40
Speaker 1: bunch of games in a row against the team, it's
6:42
Speaker 1: one of it's lost. Excusing a bunch of games in
6:45
Speaker 1: a row, I don't really think there's a whole lot
6:47
Speaker 1: of value to be had there, and playing that team
6:50
Speaker 1: that's on the huge winning streaks, I think the value
6:53
Speaker 1: isn't really there for that. But I do think the
6:55
Speaker 1: motivational angles here the situation lines up better for Phoenix here,
6:59
Speaker 1: so I do still lean that way. Dallas at Golden State,
7:03
Speaker 1: Golden State, I believe they're gonna make the playoffs at
7:07
Speaker 1: this point. I could check quickly. Let me see. Basically,
7:12
Speaker 1: it's it's down to pretty much. We have a bunch
7:14
Speaker 1: of teams that are kind of in a cluster here
7:16
Speaker 1: Golden State, Seattle, Indiana, and LA here. Although I don't
7:21
Speaker 1: know what the sea means next to Indiana, what does
7:24
Speaker 1: that even mean? Oh, they won the Commissioner's copy. That
7:27
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. That doesn't matter at all. I mean, it's
7:30
Speaker 1: so stupid that they list that in the standards. Who
7:32
Speaker 1: the fuck cares that they won an in season tournament
7:34
Speaker 1: that nobody gives a shit about, which I think was
7:37
Speaker 1: also without Caitlin Clark. But anyway, those four teams are
7:41
Speaker 1: basically battling for the final three playoff spots pretty much
7:46
Speaker 1: a Golden State is one of them, although they're in
7:49
Speaker 1: the driver's seat out of those teams as far as
7:51
Speaker 1: that's concerned, but they do still have reason to show up.
7:55
Speaker 1: But they are also coming off a big win over
7:58
Speaker 1: New York. They just be in Indiana and New yor
8:00
Speaker 1: work Indiana competing with them for a playoff spot basically too,
8:03
Speaker 1: so big wins there for them. They're on a four
8:05
Speaker 1: game win streak. But it's possible they overlook Dallas a
8:09
Speaker 1: little bit. They did just beat Dallas on the road too,
8:11
Speaker 1: So if this, if Golden State wasn't trying to make
8:15
Speaker 1: sure they make the playoffs here, I would probably be
8:17
Speaker 1: looking to Dallas in a spot like this. Although it
8:20
Speaker 1: is a huge number though, that means you might get
8:22
Speaker 1: more value on Dallas. Dallas has lost a bunch of
8:25
Speaker 1: games in a row too. They lost eight games in
8:28
Speaker 1: a row I think is what that is. Third straight
8:31
Speaker 1: road game makes a little bit of a difficult spot
8:33
Speaker 1: for them too. This is a big spread here. Golden
8:36
Speaker 1: State actually has gotten some money. It looks like up
8:38
Speaker 1: from ten and a half to eleven and a half
8:40
Speaker 1: with juice. I wouldn't lay the points though, even though, yes,
8:44
Speaker 1: they do have to keep winning, but they don't need
8:46
Speaker 1: to win by margin to maintain their playoff positioning. They're
8:50
Speaker 1: sitting better than some of the other teams they're competing
8:53
Speaker 1: with right now. And again they might take Dallas a
8:55
Speaker 1: little bit lightly coming off some bigger games and having
8:58
Speaker 1: beaten Dallas on the road not that long ago, so
9:00
Speaker 1: slightly into Dallas there, and then Minnesota and Vegas. Minnesota
9:04
Speaker 1: really does not have a whole lot to play for
9:06
Speaker 1: it at this point because they have the one seed
9:09
Speaker 1: already wrapped up in the playoffs, I'm pretty sure. So
9:12
Speaker 1: I don't think there's a whole lot that can really
9:14
Speaker 1: go wrong for them at this point. And how many
9:15
Speaker 1: games are left. They have a six game lead over
9:18
Speaker 1: their nearest competition in the conference here, they have four
9:22
Speaker 1: games left, including this one. It looks like right, so
9:27
Speaker 1: I think it's I think they've clinched the one seed,
9:29
Speaker 1: so they don't really have a whole lot to play for.
9:31
Speaker 1: Vegas does because they're playing for playoff seeding right now.
9:35
Speaker 1: Vegas has won twelve games in a row. They've really
9:38
Speaker 1: turned it on started playing some good basketball. Minnesota I
9:41
Speaker 1: think is also kind of concerned with making sure that
9:44
Speaker 1: their players are healthy coming into the playoffs. Like coll here,
9:47
Speaker 1: who certainly could be the MVP. She needs to make sure.
9:51
Speaker 1: They need to make sure she's ready for the playoffs man,
9:53
Speaker 1: so like, yeah, they'd like to play her. This is
9:56
Speaker 1: basically an MVP battle between Collier and Wilson, who's on Vegas.
10:00
Speaker 1: One of the two of them is going to be
10:02
Speaker 1: the MVP this year. But I think making sure that
10:05
Speaker 1: you're ready for the playoffs matters more than whoever the
10:07
Speaker 1: hell wins MVP. In my opinion, I think it should
10:11
Speaker 1: still be call here, but coming into this game, it
10:12
Speaker 1: looks like we don't have a huge amount of injuries
10:14
Speaker 1: here on either side. But I do think Vegas does
10:18
Speaker 1: kind of have more to play for here because they're
10:19
Speaker 1: still fighting for playoff positioning. Vegas, again, they've won twelve
10:23
Speaker 1: in a row, but they are returning home from a
10:25
Speaker 1: road trip where they went to the East Coast beat Atlanta.
10:29
Speaker 1: That was a big win as far as playoffs seating
10:32
Speaker 1: is concerned as well, So it is not the greatest
10:34
Speaker 1: spot for them returning home. Again, it's a distraction spot
10:37
Speaker 1: when you return home, but you're playing Minnesota, so that
10:40
Speaker 1: probably alleviates the distraction a little bit when you're playing
10:43
Speaker 1: the best team in the league. Minnesota has won four
10:47
Speaker 1: of the last five games, but they beat up on
10:49
Speaker 1: a couple of cupcakes in their last two games. I
10:51
Speaker 1: think they're kind of just coasting trying to get ready
10:54
Speaker 1: for the playoffs here. So even though it's a return
10:57
Speaker 1: home spot, I would still slightly lean to AGAs. But
11:00
Speaker 1: the number went up from one to two and a
11:01
Speaker 1: half on Minnesota. Again, it's there are some kind of
11:05
Speaker 1: conflicting variables there, So I apologize again, Alex. I don't
11:08
Speaker 1: want to force anything at the WNBA, so I'm not
11:10
Speaker 1: going to give out a WNBA play. We only have
11:14
Speaker 1: six Major League Baseball games here. One is late afternoon
11:18
Speaker 1: as Philadelphia and Milwaukee finished their series. They've split the
11:23
Speaker 1: first two games of the series. Both these teams have
11:26
Speaker 1: something to play for him and they're both leading their
11:28
Speaker 1: divisions right now, they both have a decent lead in
11:30
Speaker 1: their divisions, but they still want to hold on to
11:32
Speaker 1: their divisions. I mean, this is still a big series
11:35
Speaker 1: for both teams. They each know that they're playing another
11:37
Speaker 1: one of the best teams in the National League. You know,
11:40
Speaker 1: both teams are gonna get up for it. There's not
11:42
Speaker 1: really a motivational angle to be had here, Curtis, what's
11:44
Speaker 1: up man? Thanks for hanging out. Yeah, I went live
11:47
Speaker 1: a little bit earlier today, but people probably won't care
11:50
Speaker 1: if they missed the WNBA portion of this. As far
11:54
Speaker 1: as the bullpens here, I mean, neither of these bullpens
11:56
Speaker 1: are really that great. Actually, hold on, let me make
11:58
Speaker 1: sure my audio is good, right, Artists, you can let
12:00
Speaker 1: me know if you're still in the chat. Man, Sometimes
12:03
Speaker 1: I listen back, I'm like, man, like, I think I'm
12:05
Speaker 1: just straining my voice. Still. It just doesn't sound that good.
12:08
Speaker 1: My voice is not great right now. Although I know
12:11
Speaker 1: I did put out a ukulele cover yesterday. Let me see. Yeah,
12:17
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. I don't like my own voice.
12:18
Speaker 1: Maybe I should tone it down, be a little bit
12:21
Speaker 1: more soothing here.
12:23
Speaker 2: Uh.
12:24
Speaker 1: As far as Milwaukee, and Philadelphia. Again, I'm not a
12:27
Speaker 1: huge fan of either of these bullpens. I think Milwaukee's
12:30
Speaker 1: is slightly better. We didn't see a ton of usage
12:32
Speaker 1: on the Philadelphia side yesterday, really on either side, so
12:35
Speaker 1: the bullpens. The rest situation is all right for both teams.
12:39
Speaker 1: On the surface, this looks like it's gonna be a
12:41
Speaker 1: starting pitching battle here, and both offenses are good. By
12:44
Speaker 1: the way, Philadelphia has the better offense of the two,
12:46
Speaker 1: but it's fairly close. Ron your Suarez is pitching for
12:49
Speaker 1: Philadelphia here. He's been good on the season three point
12:53
Speaker 1: h two ERA, one point one to seven WHIP, even
12:55
Speaker 1: though I've said, based on his career numbers, just like
12:58
Speaker 1: I said last year, I expect maybe some regression there
13:01
Speaker 1: at some point, just because he hasn't been quite this
13:03
Speaker 1: good throughout his career. Definitely having a good season though,
13:08
Speaker 1: and he's been better on the road. Two point two
13:10
Speaker 1: to five. Roadyra he's been pretty good this month too.
13:13
Speaker 1: The Ray's a little bit high four point one. Had
13:16
Speaker 1: a couple of rough starts there early in the month.
13:20
Speaker 1: Excuse me, in the month of August, did I say
13:22
Speaker 1: July August? Excuse me? He had a thirty four to
13:25
Speaker 1: three strike out walk ratio On his last three starts.
13:29
Speaker 1: He went at least five innings in all three, his
13:31
Speaker 1: team won all three, and he gave up two or
13:33
Speaker 1: fewer earned runs in all three and had double digit
13:35
Speaker 1: strikeouts and two of the three. Although he did struggle
13:38
Speaker 1: a bit last time out against Atlanta, even though held
13:40
Speaker 1: him to one earned run, he gave up ten hits,
13:43
Speaker 1: so he kind of got lucky that more runs didn't
13:46
Speaker 1: score there, especially because he only had two strikeouts there.
13:49
Speaker 1: But generally he is in pretty good for him right now.
13:51
Speaker 1: His numbers against Milwaukee are not good, though they've been
13:55
Speaker 1: able to hit him in the past, and fifty five
13:57
Speaker 1: career at bats eleven to three strike out walk ratios
14:00
Speaker 1: pretty good for him. But three sixty four average allot
14:02
Speaker 1: in nine ninety seven ops that is not good. How
14:06
Speaker 1: all three home runs a Milwaukee has are from Contreras
14:09
Speaker 1: though against Suarez, so he specifically does a lot of damage.
14:14
Speaker 1: So I mean it is still potentially looking like it
14:17
Speaker 1: could be an under type of game. Both pitchers are
14:19
Speaker 1: in their splits here, They're both having good seasons, and
14:22
Speaker 1: they're both in their home roads splits that favor them.
14:25
Speaker 1: Freddy Peralta is so I'm talking about for the Brewers.
14:28
Speaker 1: I mean, I think he might have the most wins
14:30
Speaker 1: in Major League Baseball with sixteen. I mean partially because
14:34
Speaker 1: he gets a lot of run support. But he's having
14:35
Speaker 1: a really good season. Two two point five eighty RA,
14:39
Speaker 1: one point oh seven WHIP. He's been really good at
14:41
Speaker 1: home one point eight three home RA over the month
14:45
Speaker 1: of August. He allowed one run the entire month in
14:50
Speaker 1: twenty eight innings pitch. He went five plus innings in
14:53
Speaker 1: every outing, only a lot of eleven hits thirty four strikeouts.
14:56
Speaker 1: The walk number is really the only bad number, twelve walks.
15:00
Speaker 1: Other than that, he basically did nothing wrong. He picked
15:03
Speaker 1: up four wins in the five starts. His team lost
15:06
Speaker 1: one of the games even though he gave up no
15:08
Speaker 1: runs in the game. The bullpend totally imploded on him
15:11
Speaker 1: against San Francisco. But yeah, he's been really good this
15:16
Speaker 1: month though, or this past month, with a point three
15:19
Speaker 1: to two ERA, and his last four starts he hasn't
15:22
Speaker 1: allowed any runs, including starts at the Cubs and at Toronto,
15:27
Speaker 1: so he was facing some solid lineups. Peralta is definitely
15:30
Speaker 1: in good form right now. Man even though again he
15:33
Speaker 1: is walking too many guys. That's the one concern. His
15:36
Speaker 1: numbers are okay against Philadelphia, kind of a mix really
15:39
Speaker 1: where they don't hit him for much contact, but they
15:41
Speaker 1: actually do hit him for power. In one hundred and
15:43
Speaker 1: fifteen of bats, a forty nine to fourteen strike a
15:46
Speaker 1: walk ratio is pretty decent for him. Two point two
15:49
Speaker 1: excuse two to twenty six batting average allowed. That's low,
15:53
Speaker 1: but eight twenty eight ohps is quite high, somewhat because
15:56
Speaker 1: of the walks. But he's allowed a lot of extra
15:58
Speaker 1: base hits eight home row runs as well to the
16:01
Speaker 1: Philadelphia bats, So there are some concerns there. So I
16:06
Speaker 1: know it does look like it's an under. I think
16:07
Speaker 1: the money is actually coming in towards the under a
16:09
Speaker 1: bit here eighty one percent tickets only seventy nine percent
16:12
Speaker 1: of the cash and the over. The public is coming
16:14
Speaker 1: in on the over totals, it's seven and a half
16:16
Speaker 1: juice to the over. There might still be eight's out there.
16:19
Speaker 1: I mean, if you do like the under, I would
16:22
Speaker 1: probably be leaning towards doing a first five inning and
16:24
Speaker 1: avoiding the bullpens, even though the bullpens are somewhat rested.
16:28
Speaker 1: I still don't really like these bullpens, but I would
16:32
Speaker 1: hesitate to do it at all. I mean, I'm not
16:33
Speaker 1: giving this out as a play, but again, just because
16:37
Speaker 1: Suarez has really bad matchup members against the Brewers and
16:39
Speaker 1: Peraltas aren't really that good either, So I hesitate as
16:43
Speaker 1: far as the under is concerned. I know the public
16:45
Speaker 1: looks at this and says, oh, these are two really
16:47
Speaker 1: good offenses. We're gonna go over here, even though both
16:50
Speaker 1: pitchers have really good eras this year. So yeah, the
16:55
Speaker 1: total in this game, it's it's definitely a stay away
16:58
Speaker 1: from me. I would have a slightly into the Brewers
17:02
Speaker 1: just because Suarez does have bad numbers against the Brewers bats,
17:05
Speaker 1: and I think Peralta is the better of the two pitchers.
17:08
Speaker 1: I actually and I prefer Milwaukee's bullpen to some extent
17:12
Speaker 1: as well, So slightly in to Milwaukee for me. Here.
17:15
Speaker 1: They're down for minus one thirty one twenty five on
17:18
Speaker 1: the money line, seventy three percent tickets eighty percent of
17:20
Speaker 1: the cash on them. So even though the public looks
17:22
Speaker 1: like they are somewhat signing with Milwaukee, they are the
17:25
Speaker 1: team with the best record in baseball. I'm not sure
17:28
Speaker 1: that they're wrong. In this case, it looks like something
17:29
Speaker 1: the actual money is agreeing with that Dodgers at Pittsburgh.
17:34
Speaker 1: I'm close to giving out a play on this one. Man,
17:37
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna quite get there with a Pittsburgh all
17:39
Speaker 1: of a sudden's win four of the last five games
17:42
Speaker 1: against my bust in Red Sox and against the Dodgers.
17:45
Speaker 1: As Pittsburgh is on the verge of sweeping the Dodgers,
17:49
Speaker 1: that would be ridiculous. But the fact that the Red
17:52
Speaker 1: Sox couldn't be Pittsburgh on the road, that's a different thing.
17:54
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is bad on the road. Pittsburgh is actually above
17:57
Speaker 1: five hundred at home. As bad as they are, they're
18:00
Speaker 1: actually pretty competitive at home, and they're gonna have their
18:03
Speaker 1: best picture on the mound today. So there's actually a
18:05
Speaker 1: chance Pittsburgh gets a sweep against the Dodgers, which is insane.
18:10
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has nothing left to play for except they probably
18:13
Speaker 1: would like to get a sweep over the Dodgers, man,
18:15
Speaker 1: because why not. You're playing out the stretch. This is
18:17
Speaker 1: the type of game you will show up for. It's
18:19
Speaker 1: gonna be a pitching duel, most likely based on who
18:22
Speaker 1: these starting pitchers are the Dodgers. They have something to
18:26
Speaker 1: play for, obviously, They're trying to maintain their hold on
18:29
Speaker 1: the NL West here. They don't want to lose the
18:32
Speaker 1: division obviously, or lose their top place in the division,
18:36
Speaker 1: so there's a motivation on both sides. In my opinion,
18:39
Speaker 1: neither bullpen is great. I think the Dodgers' bullpen is
18:43
Speaker 1: slightly worse, but they are more rested coming into this
18:45
Speaker 1: game only having used two relievers Pittsburgh used four yesterday.
18:49
Speaker 1: They did use Borrows, who wasn't their starting rotation for
18:52
Speaker 1: a while, so he was used as kind of a
18:54
Speaker 1: long relief guy to save some of their better relievers.
18:58
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh obviously has the way worse offense. Although the Dodgers,
19:02
Speaker 1: they're not as good hitting on the road as they
19:04
Speaker 1: are at home. They're the best home hitting team in
19:07
Speaker 1: baseball as far as runs scored per game, but on
19:10
Speaker 1: the road the amount of runs they score per game
19:12
Speaker 1: drops by about a run, so they're not quite as
19:15
Speaker 1: good on the road. Pittsburgh, you know, they basically have
19:18
Speaker 1: the worst offense in baseball, and the started pitching. This
19:21
Speaker 1: looks like a pitching duel man, so I was very
19:24
Speaker 1: close to giving out an under on this game. I
19:26
Speaker 1: just have slight concerns with it. Blake Snell is pitching
19:30
Speaker 1: for the Dodgers. He's coming back from injury. He hasn't
19:34
Speaker 1: pitched that much this year. He's got a two point
19:36
Speaker 1: four to one ERA, though obviously that's good. One point
19:39
Speaker 1: three to seven whip is a bit high. Snell a
19:42
Speaker 1: lot of times he used too wild man. That's always
19:44
Speaker 1: been his issue is that he walks too many guys,
19:46
Speaker 1: but he's very difficult to hit. He usually racks up
19:49
Speaker 1: a ton of strikeouts. He's been somewhat worse on the road,
19:52
Speaker 1: which concerns me a little bit about the under three
19:54
Speaker 1: point seventy five road ERA. He's still been pretty good though,
19:58
Speaker 1: in the month of August two point five for ERA,
20:01
Speaker 1: thirty four to ten strike out walker ratio. A lot
20:03
Speaker 1: of strikeouts, too many walks. He's walking multiple guys at
20:07
Speaker 1: four starts in a row. But he hasn't been very hittable.
20:10
Speaker 1: Like I said, this is exactly what Snell does. He's
20:14
Speaker 1: allowed three or fewer earned runs in every start this
20:17
Speaker 1: entire season. Against Pittsburgh. He does have pretty good numbers
20:22
Speaker 1: except for the walks. Again, the walks are concerned in
20:24
Speaker 1: fifty seven at bats, eighteen strikeouts, fourteen walks, way too
20:28
Speaker 1: many walks man. Those six of them are McCutcheon, who
20:31
Speaker 1: is also over twelve off of him on one ninety
20:35
Speaker 1: three batting average allowed in five to sixty three oh
20:37
Speaker 1: ps allowed by Snell two of the Pittsburgh bats. So
20:40
Speaker 1: he does hold him down, and he's gonna be facing
20:43
Speaker 1: Paul Skeens, of course, who is an elite pitcher even
20:47
Speaker 1: though this is only his second season. Two point zero
20:50
Speaker 1: five VRA point nine to five whip elite sub one whip.
20:54
Speaker 1: He's really good at home one point sixty five YRRA
20:57
Speaker 1: at home. He's been good this past month as well.
21:02
Speaker 1: His team has won four of his last five starts
21:04
Speaker 1: he picked up and winning three of those two point
21:06
Speaker 1: nine one ERA forty one to six strike out walk ratio.
21:10
Speaker 1: The last three starts he allowed two or fewer earned
21:12
Speaker 1: runs and went six or more innings in all three,
21:15
Speaker 1: including starts against Toronto in the Red Sox, which I
21:18
Speaker 1: believe were both on the road. I know one of
21:21
Speaker 1: them was on the road, the Red Sox one was,
21:23
Speaker 1: so again, that's still pretty impressive to do that. His
21:25
Speaker 1: numbers against the Dodgers are more on the mediocre side though,
21:28
Speaker 1: so the Dodgers have been able to hit him a
21:30
Speaker 1: little bit. So that's my other concern with going under
21:33
Speaker 1: in this game, although I do lean that way. Forty
21:35
Speaker 1: nine at bats, twelve strikeouts, two walks, really good ratio.
21:38
Speaker 1: But he has allowed three home runs to them, three
21:40
Speaker 1: different batters of homeward off him two sixty five average
21:43
Speaker 1: eight to twenty five ops, so that is a bit high,
21:46
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna stay away, although I generally do lean
21:50
Speaker 1: to the under in this game. UH total has fifty
21:53
Speaker 1: four percent tickets on the over sixty two percent of
21:56
Speaker 1: the cash on the over, though, so I worry about
21:57
Speaker 1: the cash percentage there. But the total has dropped from
22:00
Speaker 1: seven juice to the over all the way down to
22:02
Speaker 1: straight seven, So it doesn't like that is a pretty
22:05
Speaker 1: significant move when it's around right on that key number
22:08
Speaker 1: of seven like that, Like if that thing drops to
22:10
Speaker 1: six and a half, that is a significant move because
22:13
Speaker 1: seven is a key number in baseball, and when you
22:16
Speaker 1: have a low total like that, that seventh run breaks
22:19
Speaker 1: the three to three tie, so it is a key
22:21
Speaker 1: number there. I don't love the bullpens though, as you know,
22:25
Speaker 1: especially Pittsburgh is just not that rested right now either.
22:28
Speaker 1: So if I wanted to go under here, I would
22:31
Speaker 1: probably exclude the bullpens, even though that doesn't mean going
22:33
Speaker 1: under three and a half in the first five. That
22:36
Speaker 1: would probably be my recommendation of this game. You know me,
22:38
Speaker 1: I don't love going under three and a half. There's
22:41
Speaker 1: not a whole lot of room for error there, but
22:43
Speaker 1: that is probably the way I would do this game.
22:45
Speaker 1: First five innings under three and a half. I think
22:48
Speaker 1: probably you have to pay about minus one twenty to
22:50
Speaker 1: do that. It's a little bit of a price, but
22:52
Speaker 1: that is the way I would do it. I mean,
22:54
Speaker 1: I think, I mean, you do have two really good
22:56
Speaker 1: pictures here, and that's just it is what it is like.
22:59
Speaker 1: Sometimes it just out that way you games. A lot
23:03
Speaker 1: of times. I'll be on an under in a game
23:05
Speaker 1: like this, just because that is what it is, man.
23:08
Speaker 1: I mean, if you want it to go full game,
23:09
Speaker 1: you're at least getting the better or the key number
23:11
Speaker 1: of seven. Basically if you go under seven. I mean,
23:14
Speaker 1: I don't hate that. Really, you are still working with
23:17
Speaker 1: a Pittsburgh lineup that's really bad, and a Dodger lineup
23:20
Speaker 1: that doesn't hit as well on the road. At the
23:22
Speaker 1: very least. The money line dropped on the Dodgers in
23:25
Speaker 1: this game too, down for minus one thirty minus one sixteen.
23:28
Speaker 1: Looks like they are taking some of the cash. Those
23:30
Speaker 1: sixty four percent of tickets eighty three percent of the cash.
23:36
Speaker 1: I mean, I would slightly lean to the Dodgers just
23:38
Speaker 1: because they do have the motivation here. Skeens is the
23:42
Speaker 1: guy that gets kind of all the accolades, and he's
23:45
Speaker 1: just one man. I know, he's the starting pitcher and
23:47
Speaker 1: that's a huge deal. But Pittsburgh's offense isn't good. They're
23:50
Speaker 1: bullpen's not really rested. So I could see the Dodgers
23:53
Speaker 1: pulling this one out, and they have more motivation here,
23:55
Speaker 1: so I wouldn't really want to be jumping on Pittsburgh
23:58
Speaker 1: than I know. Money line home underdog with skins on
24:00
Speaker 1: the mound seems a bit tempting to want to do that,
24:03
Speaker 1: And usually you have to pay too much of a
24:05
Speaker 1: price for the Dodgers, but I think Skeens, because you
24:08
Speaker 1: also have to pay a price to play him, I
24:10
Speaker 1: think those things kind of actually cancel out a little bit.
24:13
Speaker 1: And in my opinion, with the line having dropped like this,
24:15
Speaker 1: I think it's actually a fairly cheap price on the
24:17
Speaker 1: Dodgers in this spot, knowing that they're still a good team,
24:21
Speaker 1: although they haven't been that good over the past month
24:23
Speaker 1: or two. They're just kind of coasting. It's still in
24:26
Speaker 1: first place I think in their division. Crazy, but they're
24:28
Speaker 1: gonna lose that if they keep playing like this. Anyway,
24:31
Speaker 1: those are my thoughts. I still think first five under
24:34
Speaker 1: is my preferred approach in that game. Cleveland and Tampa
24:37
Speaker 1: are starting a new series here. Tampa, they just pulled
24:41
Speaker 1: off two sweeps in a row at Washington, return home
24:44
Speaker 1: from a road trip and swept Seattle. I mean, Seattle's
24:47
Speaker 1: not playing well. Tampa is better than they really look.
24:51
Speaker 1: I mean, they pretty much know they're not going anywhere
24:53
Speaker 1: this year, but they have a pretty solid run differential.
24:56
Speaker 1: As I keep pointing out, they're in a tough division.
24:58
Speaker 1: They're better than the record looks. Will they remain focused
25:03
Speaker 1: though against a weak Cleveland team? I don't know. Man
25:06
Speaker 1: and Cleveland I mean not mathematically eliminated either. I mean
25:09
Speaker 1: they're right at five hundred. Tampa's one game above five hundred. Cleveland, unfortunately,
25:13
Speaker 1: just beat the Red Sox yesterday in that stupid bullpen
25:17
Speaker 1: game at the Red Sox throughout there just abysmal. The
25:20
Speaker 1: Red Sox couldn't even hit Cleveland, and the Red Sox
25:23
Speaker 1: lost Roman Anthony for who knows how long. So the
25:27
Speaker 1: Red Sox their season is pretty much fucked. I mean,
25:29
Speaker 1: they're not gonna do anything this year, which I hate
25:33
Speaker 1: as long as I mean, we just better not see
25:35
Speaker 1: the Yankees win man, and that'll be okay with whatever
25:38
Speaker 1: else happens, even though I don't like the Dodgers either.
25:40
Speaker 1: Really Cleveland, they got the win to break the lost streak,
25:43
Speaker 1: so that will give them some momentum. But they are
25:45
Speaker 1: traveling down from Boston to Tampa Bay and Tampa's not traveling,
25:50
Speaker 1: so Cleveland had a little bit of a disadvantage just
25:53
Speaker 1: because they're traveling. We have two pretty good bullpens in
25:55
Speaker 1: this game, Cleveland's sixth and bullpenny are and Tampa bay
25:59
Speaker 1: eighth andy area. Over the course of the season, Cleveland
26:02
Speaker 1: continues to actually have a pretty good bullpen, even though
26:05
Speaker 1: they lost class. It's almost like that was additioned by subtraction,
26:10
Speaker 1: because I think maybe that just got rid of that
26:12
Speaker 1: like distraction that was going on with the gambling issues
26:14
Speaker 1: and whatever. Both teams really didn't use a whole lot
26:18
Speaker 1: of their bullpen yesterday and we're in September call ups,
26:20
Speaker 1: so the bullpens are pretty resting and they're both good.
26:24
Speaker 1: Tampa has the better offense here. Cleveland's offense is one
26:27
Speaker 1: of the bottom offenses in baseball, so Tampa does have
26:30
Speaker 1: a big offensive edge. This is in stein runner Field.
26:34
Speaker 1: Remember it's this very hitter friendly ballpark that is shaped
26:37
Speaker 1: to be similar to the dimensions of the Yankee Stadium.
26:40
Speaker 1: It's the Yankee spring training stadium that's where Tampa is
26:43
Speaker 1: playing temporarily, so it is a hitter friendly park. So
26:46
Speaker 1: if you do like pitching in this game, got to
26:50
Speaker 1: be a little bit concerned with the fact that it's
26:51
Speaker 1: a hitter friendly park. But that does get baked into
26:53
Speaker 1: the number. As far as the starters. Logan Allen is
26:56
Speaker 1: pitching for Cleveland, He's not great. Four point four to
27:00
Speaker 1: two ERA one point four to four whip is definitely
27:02
Speaker 1: too high. Putting almost one and a half guys on
27:05
Speaker 1: basin inning. That's not good, especially when home runs fly
27:08
Speaker 1: out of this ballpark. He's a bit worse on the
27:11
Speaker 1: road as well. Four point nine to seven road ERA
27:14
Speaker 1: hasn't been good this past month. Month of August five
27:17
Speaker 1: point nine six ERA twenty four to seventeen strike a
27:20
Speaker 1: walk ratio. The walks are very alarming from Logan Allen.
27:24
Speaker 1: He's had at least three walks in every single outing
27:27
Speaker 1: and he's allowed four more runs in his last two outings,
27:30
Speaker 1: one against Texas. From Texas isn't even a team that
27:34
Speaker 1: can hit, especially at home, and he still got bombed
27:37
Speaker 1: in that start. He gave up three on runs, nine and runs,
27:41
Speaker 1: very bad sign and then he did better in his
27:43
Speaker 1: last start against Seattle, but he did still love four
27:46
Speaker 1: and runs last at six innings though, But Logan Allen,
27:49
Speaker 1: I don't think he's very trustworthy up against Tamba Bay here,
27:54
Speaker 1: they haven't really seen much of him though. They only
27:56
Speaker 1: have three hitters. I've ever seen it before. Ten at bats,
27:59
Speaker 1: only two hits. One of them is a home run
28:01
Speaker 1: from Dias because of course who else would it be.
28:04
Speaker 1: So they have a two hundred average, they don't have
28:06
Speaker 1: any strikeouts or walks. A seven hundred ops off Logan Allen.
28:11
Speaker 1: It's a small sample size. He does have an unfamiliarity
28:14
Speaker 1: edge there, which sometimes is an advantage to the pitcher
28:17
Speaker 1: because the other team has to kind of figure him out,
28:20
Speaker 1: and it takes a while to figure that picture out
28:22
Speaker 1: as you go. But I don't trust Logan Allen at all.
28:25
Speaker 1: I think the fact that he's in really bad form
28:26
Speaker 1: right now actually trumps the unfamiliarity of it. Ryan Pepio
28:30
Speaker 1: is pitching for Tampa. He is the better of these
28:32
Speaker 1: two pitchers. He's been good even though he pitches in
28:35
Speaker 1: this very hit or friendly ballpark. He's adapted. He's got
28:39
Speaker 1: a three point seventy RA this year, one point one
28:41
Speaker 1: five whip. Those are solid numbers. He's actually been better
28:44
Speaker 1: in this stadium, even though he's a lot more home
28:46
Speaker 1: runs here, in more innings pitch. But the home run
28:49
Speaker 1: rate is still higher here, but that's expected. I mean,
28:52
Speaker 1: he's given up too many home runs this year, but
28:55
Speaker 1: again this ballpark. I mean, it's a very home run
28:58
Speaker 1: could douce a ballpark. But he does his better ERA
29:01
Speaker 1: here three point twenty five v R at home. That's
29:03
Speaker 1: pretty solid. He's pitched two straight shutouts, one hit shutouts,
29:08
Speaker 1: although he ain't lasted five innings in each of them.
29:10
Speaker 1: One they cut his pitch count short. The other one,
29:12
Speaker 1: he was pretty inefficient, did walk three guys, which is
29:15
Speaker 1: a little bit concerning, but still he's in fairly good
29:19
Speaker 1: form over those last two starts. It was against Saint
29:21
Speaker 1: Louis and Washington. Those are pretty bad offenses, but so
29:24
Speaker 1: is Cleveland. Over August he had a three point twenty
29:28
Speaker 1: five VR and twenty seven to ten strike out walk ratio.
29:31
Speaker 1: Not a great ratio, it's too many walks from Pepio.
29:35
Speaker 1: But he picked up four wins in the five starts
29:37
Speaker 1: in Tampa, won four of the five starts, so he's
29:40
Speaker 1: in decent form right now. His last two starts. Like
29:43
Speaker 1: I said, we're both pretty good up against Cleveland, who
29:47
Speaker 1: we know is not a good hitting lineup. He actually
29:49
Speaker 1: hasn't been that great against some thirty at bats. It's
29:51
Speaker 1: not a huge sample. Eight to three strike out walk
29:54
Speaker 1: ratios al right, two sixty seven average eight hundred oh ps.
29:57
Speaker 1: He has a lot of two of them runs to
29:58
Speaker 1: them from Arius and Jones. So we'll see what happens
30:02
Speaker 1: in this game. Although I prefer Pepio over Logan owl
30:05
Speaker 1: in here man, the money's coming in on the under.
30:07
Speaker 1: It's flipped from eight and a half juice to the
30:09
Speaker 1: over to eight and half juice to the under, seventy
30:11
Speaker 1: four percent of tickets on the over, eighty one percent
30:13
Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on the under. I mean
30:15
Speaker 1: the bullpends. Like I said, the bullpen situation does look
30:19
Speaker 1: pretty good for an under here, and we know that
30:21
Speaker 1: we have one at least one bad offense with Cleveland here.
30:24
Speaker 1: But I worry a little bit about the starting pitching,
30:26
Speaker 1: especially Logan Allen, so that gives me a little bit
30:28
Speaker 1: of pause there. I would probably agree with the market
30:32
Speaker 1: towards the under slightly, but I just don't think you
30:34
Speaker 1: can play it really in this stadium with Logan Owen
30:37
Speaker 1: not pitching well at all recently. Pepio, I mean, his
30:40
Speaker 1: numbers are not the greatest against Cleveland either, so I
30:43
Speaker 1: stay away from that, although I do still I lean
30:46
Speaker 1: with the market in this one still to the under
30:48
Speaker 1: end to Tampa slightly. I'm mean I think Tampa, again,
30:51
Speaker 1: they have a big offensive edge here. The bullpens are
30:54
Speaker 1: pretty similar, and I do think Pepio just generally is
30:56
Speaker 1: better than Alan. Tampa's up for minus one fifty minus
31:00
Speaker 1: one fifty five, seventy two percent of tickets, ninety two
31:03
Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming in on Tampa. And I
31:04
Speaker 1: also think that the oddsmakers are kind of telling you
31:07
Speaker 1: something here, not just with the starting pitching. But Tampa
31:11
Speaker 1: is better than the record. Looks like they only have
31:13
Speaker 1: a record that's one game better than Cleveland or a
31:16
Speaker 1: half game better than Cleveland. But Tampa is significantly better
31:19
Speaker 1: than Cleveland if you look at their run differentials. Tampa
31:21
Speaker 1: is actually the way better team. So they play in
31:24
Speaker 1: a more difficult to vision. So there is a reason
31:28
Speaker 1: why Tampa's favored like this, not just the starting pitching matchup.
31:31
Speaker 1: So I do agree with the Tampa side here. Seventy
31:34
Speaker 1: two percent tickets, ninety two percent of the cash on Tampa.
31:37
Speaker 1: So I mean I could see an argument for playing
31:39
Speaker 1: like Tampa on the run line here, or split half
31:41
Speaker 1: the bet run line, half the bet money line, or
31:44
Speaker 1: minus one run line. You know, one of those things.
31:46
Speaker 1: We'll see. I'm gonna give out a play on Anaheim
31:48
Speaker 1: in Kansas City. We'll see Zach show up in the
31:52
Speaker 1: chats soon, our Kansas City fan. Hopefully my play is
31:56
Speaker 1: correct in that one, but I'll wait until they I'll
31:58
Speaker 1: do a best bet segment and I'll give that playout,
32:02
Speaker 1: and then I'll talk about NFL, which is also gonna
32:05
Speaker 1: be one of my best bets, so that's how I'll
32:07
Speaker 1: do it. White Sox are finishing the year series of
32:09
Speaker 1: Minnesota here. Both of these teams are out of it,
32:12
Speaker 1: so they don't really have a whole lot to play for.
32:14
Speaker 1: But the White Sox are playing with a little bit
32:16
Speaker 1: of motivation here as we come down the stretches. They're
32:18
Speaker 1: about to potentially sweep Minnesota in a four game series
32:22
Speaker 1: at Minnesota. That would be wild, but maybe that'll give
32:25
Speaker 1: Minnesota some motivation here because it would be really embarrassing
32:28
Speaker 1: to get swept out of your home stadium by the
32:31
Speaker 1: worst team in your division. So Minnesota, they did lose
32:34
Speaker 1: two of the games by one run each, and I
32:37
Speaker 1: give out the over in the middle of the two games,
32:40
Speaker 1: so that was a winner for me the other day.
32:43
Speaker 1: Neither of these teams have good bullpens. I know. The
32:45
Speaker 1: offenses aren't good, with Minnesota's being better than the White Sox,
32:50
Speaker 1: but not by a whole lot. So Minnesota's I guess
32:54
Speaker 1: you could say they're kind of a mid offense, middleing offense. Again,
32:59
Speaker 1: the bullpens are not good. Of the White Sox bullpen
33:01
Speaker 1: I think is actually slightly preferable to Minnesota's. Yeah, actually
33:05
Speaker 1: more than slightly, but still not good bullpens. But we
33:09
Speaker 1: do have a problem if you like the White Sox bullpen,
33:11
Speaker 1: which I'll get to in a minute. Other than the
33:13
Speaker 1: fact that they did use four relief pitchers yesterday, Minnesota
33:17
Speaker 1: used three. Minnesota has the better, better bullpen rest shape,
33:20
Speaker 1: and part of that is also gonna have to do
33:22
Speaker 1: with the fact that the White Sox is going with
33:24
Speaker 1: a bullpen game in this one. But you know, it's
33:25
Speaker 1: September call ups, so they do a bullpen arms They'll
33:28
Speaker 1: probably be using some long relief man or two in
33:31
Speaker 1: this game. But I don't know if we could really
33:34
Speaker 1: trust the Chicago White Sox and bullpen game. Here. Man
33:37
Speaker 1: Fraser Ellard or A. Lard is the enlisted starter or
33:42
Speaker 1: opener I guess for the White Sox. He's got a
33:45
Speaker 1: four point eight two ERA this year, one point seven WHIP.
33:48
Speaker 1: He's only pitched nine in the third innings this season,
33:51
Speaker 1: so he hasn't seen a lot of playing time. I
33:52
Speaker 1: think he was injured. He was either injured or in
33:55
Speaker 1: the minors, because he didn't pitch between early May and
33:59
Speaker 1: Jill Lie and then he didn't pitch again. He made
34:01
Speaker 1: one appearance in July, a shutout appearance for one inning
34:06
Speaker 1: against Cleveland, and then didn't pitch again from then on
34:09
Speaker 1: until September one, where he made a relief appearance in
34:13
Speaker 1: this That was in this series against Minnesota, where he
34:18
Speaker 1: allowed no earned runs one unnern run, went one and
34:21
Speaker 1: two thirds innings, but he did walk three guys. He
34:23
Speaker 1: didn't allow to hit, but he walked three guys at
34:26
Speaker 1: two strikeouts, So a little bit of a concern there
34:29
Speaker 1: that he walked three guys, but he's only gonna pitch
34:31
Speaker 1: one inning, so I don't know how much of this
34:32
Speaker 1: really matters. Minnesota's o fraight off. But with four walks
34:36
Speaker 1: and three strikeouts, but again, you're gonna only get about
34:40
Speaker 1: an inning out of him, and then you're gonna get
34:41
Speaker 1: White Sox relievers. It doesn't seem like it's a great
34:44
Speaker 1: setup to me for the White Sox. Here, Taj Bradley's
34:47
Speaker 1: pitching from Minnesota. They acquired him from Tampa Bay. At
34:50
Speaker 1: some point, Uh, Tempa might a DF eight. I'm actually
34:53
Speaker 1: designating him for assignment or dead whenever. Like there's that
34:58
Speaker 1: graphic I forget which Twitter accounter site does that, but
35:02
Speaker 1: they put up this dfad graphic dfa apostrophe D and
35:06
Speaker 1: the F looks like an E, so it looks like
35:08
Speaker 1: it says dead. I think they do an intention. It's
35:10
Speaker 1: just so hilarious. H TODJ. Bradley. I mean, he hasn't
35:13
Speaker 1: had a very good season four point eight two ERA,
35:16
Speaker 1: one point two to nine whip. He's still really young.
35:18
Speaker 1: I mean, there is some upside here with him, but
35:22
Speaker 1: he's been bad at home this year five point one
35:24
Speaker 1: four ERA. But you gotta kind of take that with
35:28
Speaker 1: a grain of salt because most of that, all of that,
35:30
Speaker 1: except for his most recent start, was with Tampa and
35:33
Speaker 1: we know they have a very hitter friendly ballpark. His
35:36
Speaker 1: most recent start actually wasn't that bad, so Minnesota got him.
35:39
Speaker 1: He had absolutely lit up in his first start, though
35:42
Speaker 1: by these exact Chicago White Sox. That's not a good sign.
35:47
Speaker 1: That he got obliterated for seven runs in five innings
35:50
Speaker 1: against the White Sox, only one strikeout, one walk, nine
35:53
Speaker 1: hits allowed White Sox is not a good lineup. And
35:56
Speaker 1: the fact that the White Sox just did that to
35:58
Speaker 1: him and they just saw him, they'll be familiar with
36:01
Speaker 1: him this time I'm not saying they'll do that again,
36:02
Speaker 1: but it doesn't look great for Bradley, even though his
36:05
Speaker 1: most recent start was in this stadium at home, his
36:07
Speaker 1: first home start with Minnesota, he held the Podres to
36:11
Speaker 1: one and run and they still lost the game twelve
36:14
Speaker 1: to three. I don't know what the bullpen did in
36:16
Speaker 1: that game for Minnesota. Not good. Apparently whatever they did. Uh,
36:20
Speaker 1: he had three walks, but he only gave a one hit.
36:23
Speaker 1: So Bradley is still a little bit too wild. But
36:26
Speaker 1: he didn't get hit around in that game. His numbers,
36:28
Speaker 1: basically because of that game, are not good against the
36:30
Speaker 1: White Sox in twenty nine at bats three ten to average,
36:33
Speaker 1: allowed eight to fifty one ohps. Obviously that's not good.
36:37
Speaker 1: I don't really expect him to do great here. Do
36:40
Speaker 1: we think he's better than a bullpen game from the
36:42
Speaker 1: White Sox, Yeah, he probably is, so I could definitely
36:47
Speaker 1: see an argument from Minnesota in this game. For that reason,
36:49
Speaker 1: and because they're avoiding the sweep, the bullpen game is
36:53
Speaker 1: probably going to be a disaster for the White Sox.
36:55
Speaker 1: So Minnesota up for minus one one forty nine here,
36:58
Speaker 1: sixty three percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the
37:01
Speaker 1: cash coming in on them, I wouldn't really disagree with
37:03
Speaker 1: the Minnesota side. Seems like a bit of a price
37:06
Speaker 1: to lay with the team as bad as Minnesota. With
37:08
Speaker 1: Taj badly is what I'm gonna call him on the
37:12
Speaker 1: on the mound there. I know that's that's a great one,
37:14
Speaker 1: right with him on the mound there. I lean to
37:16
Speaker 1: an over in this game. But the total did drop
37:19
Speaker 1: off of the key number of nine though, down to
37:20
Speaker 1: eight and a half juice to the under, which is
37:22
Speaker 1: pretty significant. But you're getting the better of the key
37:25
Speaker 1: number of nine here. If you're going over eight and
37:27
Speaker 1: a half, nine is a key number. Again, it's an
37:29
Speaker 1: odd number. It breaks the four to four tie. We
37:32
Speaker 1: have ninety three percent tickets on the over, one hundred
37:34
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. Is obviously not accurate,
37:36
Speaker 1: but I see this being disastrous for both pitching staffs.
37:40
Speaker 1: To be honest, we have two very untrustworthy bullpens. We
37:43
Speaker 1: have a bullpend game from one of them up against
37:45
Speaker 1: a starter that's not good, who got blown up by
37:48
Speaker 1: this offense the last time. So I know these offenses
37:51
Speaker 1: aren't good. But like just like I said two games ago,
37:54
Speaker 1: a lot of it is about the pitching more so
37:56
Speaker 1: than the offense. Man, If the pitching is that bad,
37:59
Speaker 1: they can be come hitable. And this is a series
38:02
Speaker 1: where maybe the pitching is just kind of less intense
38:04
Speaker 1: because both of these teams know that they're out of it.
38:07
Speaker 1: So I would lean to the over in that game
38:09
Speaker 1: as well. And then we do have Yankees at Houston.
38:12
Speaker 1: Yankees took the first game of the series. Houston had
38:15
Speaker 1: a bad rest spot there as they did not have
38:17
Speaker 1: rest the day before. Then the Yankees did. Houston got
38:20
Speaker 1: them back yesterday with an eight to seven win. Of course,
38:23
Speaker 1: in the first game from the Valdez had a mental
38:27
Speaker 1: implosion as well and basically intentionally injured his catcher, which
38:31
Speaker 1: I talked about yesterday. Total bullshit. That guy's ahead case
38:36
Speaker 1: man Valdez. Luckily for Houston, he didn't pitch yesterday and
38:40
Speaker 1: Houston was able to put a bunch of runs together
38:42
Speaker 1: in the eighth inning and what was a close game.
38:45
Speaker 1: The Yankees had the lead early in the game. Yankees
38:47
Speaker 1: bullpen did what the Yankees bullpend does and didn't do well.
38:51
Speaker 1: Houston definitely has the better of these two bullpens here,
38:54
Speaker 1: and it showed yesterday as Houston was able to get
38:56
Speaker 1: the win yesterday. Now, this is the rubber match of
38:59
Speaker 1: this series. It is a big series for both teams.
39:01
Speaker 1: Both teams are competing to win their respective divisions. Here, Yankees,
39:06
Speaker 1: I guess, probably have a little bit more to play
39:07
Speaker 1: for because they're behind. Yankees did use four relief pitchers yesterday.
39:12
Speaker 1: Houston used four as well, but lighter usage to some extent. Again,
39:16
Speaker 1: Houston does have the better bullpen, even though they do
39:19
Speaker 1: have some injuries in their bullpen. Yankees have the better offense.
39:22
Speaker 1: Both teams can hit, but the Yankees do have the
39:24
Speaker 1: better offense. Starting pitching is interesting. Carlos Redone is pitching
39:29
Speaker 1: for the Yankees. He's having a good season three point
39:32
Speaker 1: one eighty RA one point eight whip, although he's not
39:35
Speaker 1: as good on the road three point four to seven
39:37
Speaker 1: road ERA. He's picked up wins in his last four
39:40
Speaker 1: starts and his team has won five starts of his
39:43
Speaker 1: in a row. He's allowed two or fewer runs and
39:45
Speaker 1: every one of those he's got five or more innings
39:47
Speaker 1: in every one of those, so he's pitching well right now.
39:50
Speaker 1: Though the only good offense that he faced over that
39:52
Speaker 1: entire span was the Red Sox, and he walked five
39:55
Speaker 1: guys in that start, and pitching at Tampa, I mean,
39:58
Speaker 1: I guess that fine, But again, that stadium is so
40:02
Speaker 1: similar to Yankee Stadium that I think that might have
40:04
Speaker 1: given him a little bit of a not necessarily an advantage,
40:08
Speaker 1: but he might have been pretty comfortable pitching there for
40:11
Speaker 1: that reason. The other starts were against Texas Minnesota on
40:14
Speaker 1: the White Sox week offenses there did have a three
40:18
Speaker 1: point one five ERA in the month of August, but
40:21
Speaker 1: his strikeout walk ratio is terrible thirty to twenty, and
40:25
Speaker 1: against the Red Sox, even though held him to tour and runs,
40:27
Speaker 1: he walked five guys in that outing. He walked multiple
40:30
Speaker 1: guys in every single outing over that span, so not
40:33
Speaker 1: all is good for him. His walk numbers are way
40:35
Speaker 1: too high, and he's kind of skating a little bit.
40:38
Speaker 1: His numbers against Houston or mediocre and one hundred and
40:40
Speaker 1: three at bats thirty to seven strike a walk ratio
40:43
Speaker 1: is pretty good, but he's a lot of two seventy
40:44
Speaker 1: two average seven thirty two ops. I mean, those numbers
40:47
Speaker 1: aren't really high, but they're right in that mid range
40:51
Speaker 1: where it's like I wouldn't say that he really has
40:53
Speaker 1: an advantage over Houston's offense, but I wouldn't say that
40:55
Speaker 1: Houston has an advantage over him either. Christian Hobvier is
40:59
Speaker 1: pitching for Houston. He returned from being injured for quite
41:03
Speaker 1: a while. He hasn't made that many starts this year
41:05
Speaker 1: so far, but he's been fairly good so far. Three
41:08
Speaker 1: point three eighty RA, one point one to three WHIP.
41:11
Speaker 1: He's in good at home one point nine to three
41:13
Speaker 1: e RA at home. Three of his four outings have
41:17
Speaker 1: been at home. His worst outing was on the road
41:19
Speaker 1: at Baltimore. He allowed three and runs and two innings.
41:23
Speaker 1: His starts at home, he's allowed two or fewer and
41:25
Speaker 1: runs in all three of them. He only went three
41:26
Speaker 1: innings against Baltimore for some reason. His pitch count was
41:29
Speaker 1: very limited in that one, though he wasn't doing poorly
41:32
Speaker 1: in that one, so I don't know what that was.
41:33
Speaker 1: But his full starts, he's made two starts at home
41:37
Speaker 1: wher he's gone five or more innings. His last start
41:39
Speaker 1: he didn't even allow any hits. They actually took him
41:41
Speaker 1: out in the middle of a no hitter. I guess
41:44
Speaker 1: because they didn't want him to go more than eighty
41:45
Speaker 1: five pitches. But man, I mean Houston, they're trying to
41:49
Speaker 1: save Hovier. Man, they want him to be part of
41:51
Speaker 1: their rotation, I guess in this stretch run here. So
41:54
Speaker 1: they're really thinking about we need to make the playoffs here,
41:56
Speaker 1: and they're not thinking about we want this guy to
41:58
Speaker 1: get a no hitterorough I would be so tempted to
42:00
Speaker 1: leave him in though he had a no hitter going
42:03
Speaker 1: through six innings last time out against Anaheim. Three walks,
42:06
Speaker 1: six strikeouts, but again no runs, no hits allowed. But
42:10
Speaker 1: when you were in the middle of a no hitter
42:12
Speaker 1: like that, even though he didn't overextend himself eighty five pitches.
42:15
Speaker 1: So he's not gonna be like burned out or anything
42:18
Speaker 1: like that coming into this game. He should show up
42:19
Speaker 1: for a game against the Yankees. But when you get
42:22
Speaker 1: pulled from a no hitter like that, man, it might
42:24
Speaker 1: affect you mentally a little bit coming into the next game.
42:27
Speaker 1: So I do worry about Javier a little bit for
42:29
Speaker 1: that reason, Like, how is he gonna respond to having
42:32
Speaker 1: a no hitter, you know, in his last outing and
42:35
Speaker 1: having it dashed by the manager pulling him. I don't
42:38
Speaker 1: know his numbers against the Yankees, are good though. In
42:40
Speaker 1: sixty one career at bats, he's done well, even though
42:42
Speaker 1: they are a good offense obviously, twenty three to four
42:45
Speaker 1: strike a walk erho one to eighty batting average allowed,
42:48
Speaker 1: six ninety ops, so he's done well. The Yankees are
42:52
Speaker 1: a public road favorite. They moved up from minus one
42:54
Speaker 1: twenty and minus one thirty three. I do think that's
42:57
Speaker 1: a bit of a high line there, especially given the
42:59
Speaker 1: Javier has the best matchup numbers against Renown and Houston
43:02
Speaker 1: has the better bullpen. Javier is also in the better
43:05
Speaker 1: form right now, so there are reasons to lean to
43:07
Speaker 1: Houston here. Seventy two percent of tickets only seventy one
43:10
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Yankees to the market
43:12
Speaker 1: seems to be kind of indicating the Yankees are just
43:14
Speaker 1: a public road favorite that you pretty much want to avoid.
43:18
Speaker 1: But again, I do worry a little bit about Javier
43:20
Speaker 1: his mental state. After that, the total flipped from eight
43:23
Speaker 1: and ap juice to the under eight and a half
43:25
Speaker 1: juice to the over, even though the public will only
43:27
Speaker 1: be on an over in a Yankees Astros game and
43:29
Speaker 1: they'll think hitting they'll go over. Seventy nine percent of
43:33
Speaker 1: tickets on the over, but ninety two percent of the
43:34
Speaker 1: cash on the over, So the money seems to be
43:36
Speaker 1: joining the public on the over there, And I don't
43:39
Speaker 1: really necessarily disagree with it. I mean, I think both
43:41
Speaker 1: bullpens could potentially give up some runs here starting pitching.
43:46
Speaker 1: I could see both starters may be potentially struggling as
43:48
Speaker 1: well for a bit. So I don't disagree with an
43:51
Speaker 1: over in that game. And let's get to the best
43:54
Speaker 1: bets here, man, I know that's what are one viewers
43:57
Speaker 1: waiting for here. Let's get on track, man, let's get
44:01
Speaker 1: some wins here. The first one up, like I said,
44:04
Speaker 1: is baseball. I'm waiting for Zach to come out of
44:07
Speaker 1: the woodwork here because my play is indeed on the
44:09
Speaker 1: Kansas City Royals. I wanted to do money line, but
44:12
Speaker 1: the money line's fairly high on them. I think it's
44:14
Speaker 1: high for a reason. I like the Royals in this game.
44:17
Speaker 1: I like the pitching matchup especially. I think the Royals
44:20
Speaker 1: have the pitching edge across the board in this game.
44:22
Speaker 1: But the way to do this, in my opinion, is
44:24
Speaker 1: either find a minus one run line out there so
44:26
Speaker 1: if they win by exactly won your bet will push,
44:29
Speaker 1: or do a split bet like this, or you can
44:31
Speaker 1: put half on the minus one and a half run
44:33
Speaker 1: line at plus money and half on the money line,
44:36
Speaker 1: and then you're putting in about as much money as
44:39
Speaker 1: you would if you were laying about a minus one
44:42
Speaker 1: fifteen favorite or so I think is what that comes
44:45
Speaker 1: out to? Something like that, So I think that's fine.
44:47
Speaker 1: And then if you do it this way, if they
44:48
Speaker 1: win by one, you'll win like a small amount of
44:51
Speaker 1: money because your money line bet will win, and that
44:54
Speaker 1: covers what you put in. Because I'm recommending playing each
44:58
Speaker 1: to win a specific amount. So like if I bet
45:01
Speaker 1: three hundred to win three hundred on any game, I
45:03
Speaker 1: would bet each half of this to win one fifty.
45:06
Speaker 1: And this way you can actually, if you have multiple books,
45:08
Speaker 1: you can find which you should if you're serious about this,
45:11
Speaker 1: you can find the best number that you can on
45:14
Speaker 1: both the run line the money line, and it may
45:17
Speaker 1: very well be at different books where you find those
45:19
Speaker 1: two things. And again that way, if you play the
45:23
Speaker 1: same uh, if you play each one to win the
45:26
Speaker 1: same amount, if the money line one wins, if they
45:30
Speaker 1: win by one run, then losing like that will cover
45:34
Speaker 1: what you lose with the plus money side of it
45:37
Speaker 1: on the run line, if that makes sense right, because
45:39
Speaker 1: you put less money on that part of the bet,
45:41
Speaker 1: so it would be a small win instead of a
45:44
Speaker 1: push if they win by one, which you would be
45:46
Speaker 1: a push if you do the minus one run linelthough
45:48
Speaker 1: that is still a way to do this. As far
45:50
Speaker 1: as these bullpens, Kansas City, like I was alluded to,
45:52
Speaker 1: they have the better bullpen. They did use four relievers yesterday,
45:55
Speaker 1: but they use two of them for single or one
45:58
Speaker 1: of them for single digit pitches, the other for ten pitches,
46:00
Speaker 1: so most I think most of their better ish relievers
46:04
Speaker 1: are pretty much available here, so I don't mind the
46:07
Speaker 1: Kansas City bullpen situation. Here. They're going up against Anaheim,
46:11
Speaker 1: which we know Anaheim's bullpen is one of the worst
46:13
Speaker 1: in baseball, and they used four relievers as well four
46:16
Speaker 1: more pitches as well, so I think Anaheims bullpen is
46:20
Speaker 1: the worst of the two is still in the worst
46:22
Speaker 1: rest spot here. Yes, Anaheim has the better offense, but
46:25
Speaker 1: again I think pitching trump's offense. And we're gonna go
46:28
Speaker 1: with the starting pitching matchup as part of this handicap
46:30
Speaker 1: as well. Kyle Hendrix is pitching for the Angels you
46:33
Speaker 1: know me, over the years, I like to fade him.
46:36
Speaker 1: I mean, he's an aging veterans. Sometimes he's good. His
46:39
Speaker 1: season hasn't been that bad for the Angels four point
46:42
Speaker 1: eight ninety RA one point three to one whip, but
46:44
Speaker 1: I don't think he's close to being the better starter here.
46:47
Speaker 1: He is a little bit worse on the road, so
46:49
Speaker 1: his splits don't line up that well either. Five point
46:52
Speaker 1: h five yr on the road here. Had a good
46:54
Speaker 1: start last time out, held Houston's six to one and
46:58
Speaker 1: run in six innings excuse me, seven hits, allowed no
47:01
Speaker 1: walks to strikeouts, so that was good. But that could
47:04
Speaker 1: have been maybe a little bit of a flash in
47:05
Speaker 1: the pan because his numbers in August were not very
47:08
Speaker 1: good across six starts five point four to sixty RA,
47:11
Speaker 1: nineteen to eleven strike at walk ratio, so he's not
47:14
Speaker 1: striking out a lot of guys. He was putting a
47:15
Speaker 1: lot of guys on base via the walk. Didn't go
47:19
Speaker 1: more than five innings in He only went more than
47:22
Speaker 1: five innings in two of those starts, although it was
47:23
Speaker 1: two of the last three. But he's not really in
47:26
Speaker 1: great form right now. His numbers against the Royals even
47:28
Speaker 1: though they're not a good hitting lineup. His numbers are
47:31
Speaker 1: not that good against him. In ninety seven at bats,
47:33
Speaker 1: seventeen to three strike a walk ratio is good, but
47:37
Speaker 1: it especially when three of the walks are off from Fraser.
47:39
Speaker 1: Fraser absolutely bombards him fourteen to thirty four with a
47:43
Speaker 1: couple of home runs off him. But overall he's allowed
47:45
Speaker 1: a two ninety nine average to the Royals in eight
47:48
Speaker 1: twenty five ops, so the Royals have been able to
47:51
Speaker 1: hit him pretty well. He's going up against the young
47:55
Speaker 1: talented Noah Cameron here was in his rookie season. He's
47:58
Speaker 1: having a good one two point nine two ERA one
48:01
Speaker 1: point zero nine whip. My concern with him would be
48:03
Speaker 1: that he wasn't as good in his last couple of starts,
48:05
Speaker 1: and you gotta worry about his innings pitch because a
48:08
Speaker 1: lot of times these young guys will wear down a
48:10
Speaker 1: little bit. But he's throwing one hundred eight pitches or
48:13
Speaker 1: he's one hundred eight innings this season. He basically didn't
48:17
Speaker 1: really start pitching until like mid May, and from then
48:19
Speaker 1: on he's been in the starting rotation, so missed a
48:22
Speaker 1: couple of months there. So I don't know that he's
48:24
Speaker 1: really totally wearing down yet. Yes, I do worry that
48:26
Speaker 1: his last outing was concerning his last two outings against
48:31
Speaker 1: some bad line. I was Texas, which was at home,
48:34
Speaker 1: although this is a pitcher friendly park here, and then
48:36
Speaker 1: all the White Sox he allowed touring runs against Texas
48:39
Speaker 1: was just in that bad but he threw way too
48:41
Speaker 1: many pitches, had three walks to five strikeouts, only lasted
48:44
Speaker 1: four and two thirds. That wasn't a great outing. And
48:46
Speaker 1: then he got allowed six earned runs to the White Sox,
48:51
Speaker 1: didn't strike out anybody, although he didn't walk anybody in
48:53
Speaker 1: that start either, So yeah, I do worry a little bit.
48:55
Speaker 1: His strikeout rate went way down over the past month
48:58
Speaker 1: twelve strikeouts to eight walls in August. But I'm not
49:03
Speaker 1: ready to say that he's done yet, man. I mean,
49:05
Speaker 1: I think he could show up and in this game.
49:07
Speaker 1: He does have the added edge of Anaheim never having
49:09
Speaker 1: seen him before. He's still a talented young pitcher. I
49:12
Speaker 1: think he can get out there and get us a
49:13
Speaker 1: good start in this one. Again against Anaheim, they have
49:17
Speaker 1: never seen him before, so I think he does have
49:20
Speaker 1: the added edge here. And I think that's the entirety
49:23
Speaker 1: of the handicap. I gotta look at the market read
49:25
Speaker 1: here in second let me just see because sometimes I check,
49:28
Speaker 1: like what teams do against left handed pitching, which, let
49:33
Speaker 1: me see, it's not even loading. What the hell? Stat
49:36
Speaker 1: music slower is my maybe my maybe? My hold on,
49:45
Speaker 1: I'm looking up this really quick. I don't really take
49:47
Speaker 1: this into account that much. Stats versus left handed versus
49:54
Speaker 1: left handed pitches. I know I'm wasting time here. Let
49:56
Speaker 1: me say Anaheim, they're like mid tier or no, let
50:02
Speaker 1: me see batting average. Actually they're pretty low. Hold on
50:07
Speaker 1: Anaheim against left handed pitching. They actually have the fifth
50:10
Speaker 1: worst batting average against left handers, so they don't have
50:14
Speaker 1: a good split either. I didn't even realize that. So
50:17
Speaker 1: even though Anaheim is a good offense, like not a
50:20
Speaker 1: good offense, but a mediocre offense, generally, the teams that
50:24
Speaker 1: are the worst against left handed pitching are the Giants, Pirates, Cleveland, Indians, Washington,
50:30
Speaker 1: and Anaheim. So that's not good company to be in.
50:33
Speaker 1: Those offenses are bad. So Anaheim joins them as the
50:36
Speaker 1: worst teams batting average wise against left east. That's not
50:40
Speaker 1: a great sign. I mean, I could look at it
50:43
Speaker 1: with ops, but I don't think it's gonna be that
50:44
Speaker 1: much different. I think Anaheim will be near the bottom
50:46
Speaker 1: there as well. They are, they're actually a little bit
50:51
Speaker 1: better than mid tier. They're fourteenth worst, so not quite
50:54
Speaker 1: as bad. So they do hit for some power against leftis,
50:57
Speaker 1: but still, I mean, their batting average is not good
50:59
Speaker 1: against left So we're gonna go with the Kansas City
51:02
Speaker 1: Royals here, and the rules are also trying to avoid
51:04
Speaker 1: a sweep here, I believe, so it's extra motivation here. Man.
51:07
Speaker 1: Kansas City's lost the first two games of this series. Anaheim,
51:11
Speaker 1: they do have a divisional series up next, I'm pretty sure, Eve,
51:13
Speaker 1: though I think it's against the A's, which maybe I
51:16
Speaker 1: don't know if that would really totally draw their focus,
51:18
Speaker 1: but it is a divisional series. They might be feeling
51:21
Speaker 1: pretty satisfied. This is the very end of a road trip,
51:24
Speaker 1: which it hasn't been a great road trip, but it's
51:26
Speaker 1: been all right, and they've won four of the last
51:28
Speaker 1: five games. It might be feeling fairly satisfied here. Anaheim
51:31
Speaker 1: knows they're not going anywhere. As I keep saying, Anaheim
51:34
Speaker 1: is not even as good as their record looks. They
51:36
Speaker 1: have one of the worst run differentials in baseball like
51:39
Speaker 1: bottom five or so. Kansas City, even though they don't
51:43
Speaker 1: score a lot, Like I said, they're still kind of
51:45
Speaker 1: in the running here, like they're still trying to play
51:47
Speaker 1: for something. They don't want to drop to five hundred.
51:49
Speaker 1: That's kind of a mental motivator. But also I think
51:51
Speaker 1: they're trying to just stay in the running right now
51:54
Speaker 1: and trying to avoid the sweep. So all of those
51:56
Speaker 1: are motivational factors. So again we're going with Kansas City
52:00
Speaker 1: and then looking at the money, looking at the market
52:02
Speaker 1: read here, Yeah, Kansas City did drop for minus one
52:05
Speaker 1: sixty minus one forty seven, so we get a better
52:07
Speaker 1: price here, But sixty tickets ninety percent of the cash
52:10
Speaker 1: on them, so it looks like the cash is joining
52:13
Speaker 1: us and coming in that way. Total is high. It's
52:16
Speaker 1: on the verge of going up to nine and a half,
52:18
Speaker 1: So I do worry about that. That's kind of signaling
52:20
Speaker 1: in a pitcher friendly park like this, that's bizarre. It's
52:23
Speaker 1: kind of signaling that maybe Cameron won't do well here.
52:26
Speaker 1: But I still think we got the pitching edge across
52:28
Speaker 1: the board here with Kansas City. Man, So that's where
52:31
Speaker 1: I'm going, And this is the best bet segment. I
52:34
Speaker 1: am going to talk about NFL. I always talk about football.
52:36
Speaker 1: Last we get these isolated NFL games. NFL is starting.
52:41
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out a play on Cowboys Eagles. Man,
52:43
Speaker 1: it'd be my first NFL play. I'm jumping into the
52:46
Speaker 1: fray right away. But I do like the side and
52:50
Speaker 1: it is going to be Dallas plus the eight and
52:53
Speaker 1: a half here, man, I mean this is a huge
52:56
Speaker 1: rivalry game. Man. I think we're getting some value on
52:58
Speaker 1: this number. I know, like I said that, I've faded
53:00
Speaker 1: the public a lot, Like people are not gonna like
53:02
Speaker 1: this one. I mean we're fading the defending Super Bowl champs. Here,
53:06
Speaker 1: seventy percent taket seventy two percent of the cash coming
53:09
Speaker 1: in on the Eagles. I expect that to shift a
53:11
Speaker 1: little bit. I think come tonight you'll actually probably see
53:13
Speaker 1: that the cash percentage won't actually be on the Eagles. Yes,
53:17
Speaker 1: the number got driven up from seven and a half
53:18
Speaker 1: to eight and a half I think, or seven to
53:20
Speaker 1: eight and a half. I think maybe there was just
53:23
Speaker 1: some play, maybe there's some professional disagreement, or maybe it
53:26
Speaker 1: was initially a setup with Maybe the professional better is
53:30
Speaker 1: actually more of than actually liked the Cowboys in this game,
53:34
Speaker 1: but maybe they were like, well, we can get seven
53:35
Speaker 1: and a half on this if we have a false move.
53:38
Speaker 1: So that is something like sometimes professional betters will mess
53:42
Speaker 1: with the market, right because when the line first comes out,
53:44
Speaker 1: which this line has been out for months so and
53:48
Speaker 1: we're getting a better number on it now in this case,
53:50
Speaker 1: like when you fade the public a lot of times,
53:51
Speaker 1: you can get a better number late with the NFL,
53:53
Speaker 1: because the public money actually forces the books to have
53:56
Speaker 1: to move the number a little bit, which really only
53:58
Speaker 1: happens in the NFL. It's the only sport that gets
54:01
Speaker 1: enough public action that the books actually might have to
54:03
Speaker 1: move the number based on how much we're excuse me,
54:07
Speaker 1: where public action can force the books to move the number.
54:10
Speaker 1: Excuse me, because they might get so much one side
54:12
Speaker 1: of public action that they just have to because the
54:14
Speaker 1: books are trying to balance the action. They really they
54:18
Speaker 1: can't be lopsided one way or the other. Though there
54:20
Speaker 1: are some cases where they'll accept being lopsided. We already
54:23
Speaker 1: see cash down to seventy one percent. There you go.
54:26
Speaker 1: I mean, sometimes the books will be okay with being lopsided,
54:29
Speaker 1: and that is an indicator of something like you want
54:32
Speaker 1: to watch out for that. When the books are just
54:34
Speaker 1: fine being lopsided on one side, that basically means they're
54:36
Speaker 1: taking a stand on that side, and you think it's
54:39
Speaker 1: decently likely that that side will lose again. The books,
54:43
Speaker 1: I think, would be happy if the Eagles not only
54:45
Speaker 1: don't cover, but they might be happy if the Eagles
54:47
Speaker 1: lose out right here, because the Eagles are probably going
54:49
Speaker 1: to be in some recreational Better's money line parlays as
54:53
Speaker 1: well here. That's probably gonna be a common play here
54:56
Speaker 1: in and teasers as well, which I was gonna say
54:58
Speaker 1: that's part of the reason why the number moved up.
54:59
Speaker 1: So it could have been a situation where maybe some
55:02
Speaker 1: professionals wanted the Cowboys, but they wanted a better number
55:05
Speaker 1: on the key numbers, seven and a half because you know,
55:07
Speaker 1: seven is a key number in football because it's the touchdown.
55:10
Speaker 1: A lot of games land seven. So you want to
55:13
Speaker 1: get the best of the side of seven that you
55:15
Speaker 1: kind of you like the points or either side. You
55:17
Speaker 1: want to get the best side of seven, regardless of
55:20
Speaker 1: which side you're playing, if that makes sense. But I
55:22
Speaker 1: think maybe some of the professionals came in because it's
55:25
Speaker 1: low limits early on, the books don't open the game
55:28
Speaker 1: up to higher limits, like to allow you to bet
55:30
Speaker 1: more on a game until they're more satisfied that they
55:33
Speaker 1: have all the information that they need, so early on
55:36
Speaker 1: they'll throw a number out there, but they'll probably limit,
55:38
Speaker 1: you know, like five hundred bucks or something like that,
55:40
Speaker 1: so low limit betting. And when that's the case, professionals
55:43
Speaker 1: might come in and be like, yeah, fuck it, I'm
55:45
Speaker 1: gonna bet five hundred on this, and the oddsmakers will
55:48
Speaker 1: basically have no choice but to respect what they're doing
55:51
Speaker 1: because they're respected professional better, and the oddsmakers don't know
55:54
Speaker 1: if they're actually taking a side or if they're actually
55:56
Speaker 1: just trying to move the numbers. They can get a
55:58
Speaker 1: better price on the actual side that they want to
56:01
Speaker 1: come in later once the limits are higher and play
56:04
Speaker 1: more money on the other side, you know what I mean,
56:06
Speaker 1: that's their actual bet, and they'll just take that like
56:08
Speaker 1: slight loss that they had on the other side. And
56:11
Speaker 1: when betters do that, they also tend to get the
56:12
Speaker 1: better of both sides of it as well, Like they
56:15
Speaker 1: would have probably have played Eagles minus seven and then
56:18
Speaker 1: also coming back playing Cowboys plus eight and a half
56:21
Speaker 1: or something. So if the game lands exactly seven, they
56:24
Speaker 1: won't even lose the bet on the Eagles, you know
56:25
Speaker 1: what I mean, it'll push. So there are situations where
56:28
Speaker 1: they could set themselves up for a middle as well.
56:30
Speaker 1: If it landed eight, they would actually win both sides
56:33
Speaker 1: of it. As the you know, they almost set up
56:35
Speaker 1: themselves with the potential They do set up themselves with
56:38
Speaker 1: the potential middle there, even though in this case would
56:41
Speaker 1: be a little bit unlikely. But if all that makes sense,
56:43
Speaker 1: that's some betting inside information there. I don't know if
56:49
Speaker 1: that's what happened in this case, but I mean, based
56:52
Speaker 1: on how I handicap this game, as we'll talk about
56:54
Speaker 1: in a few seconds, I do like the Cowboys in
56:56
Speaker 1: this game. I mean, again, we're going we're gonna be
56:59
Speaker 1: going against the public here. So that's one thing I
57:01
Speaker 1: like to be contrarian in the NFL. It works out
57:03
Speaker 1: more often than it does not. I think there might
57:06
Speaker 1: be a little bit of a hangover effect when the
57:08
Speaker 1: team just won the Super Bowl could be hung over
57:11
Speaker 1: a little bit. And yes, they're gonna be pumped up
57:13
Speaker 1: because this is gonna be their banner raising ceremony. It's
57:16
Speaker 1: their first home game. So this is what happens a
57:19
Speaker 1: Super Bowl champ I think always now hosts the first
57:22
Speaker 1: Thursday night game. So they raised the banner, But what
57:24
Speaker 1: do you think that's gonna do in a divisional matchup
57:26
Speaker 1: like this, Man, I think that's gonna piss off the Cowboys.
57:30
Speaker 1: These two teams hate each other. Man, So I think
57:32
Speaker 1: the fact that this is the banner raising ceremony the
57:35
Speaker 1: Eagles they made that run throughout the entire playoffs, man,
57:38
Speaker 1: And that's also a grind. So not only is it
57:40
Speaker 1: gonna be extra fuel for the Cowboys to be motivated here,
57:44
Speaker 1: but remember the Eagles had way less time off through
57:47
Speaker 1: the offseason because they had to go through the entire
57:49
Speaker 1: grind of the playoffs win the Super Bowl. They had
57:52
Speaker 1: to go through some pretty good teams in the playoffs
57:54
Speaker 1: to do that to make that huge run. And the
57:56
Speaker 1: Cowboys didn't even make the playoffs. So the Cowboys have
57:59
Speaker 1: had an extra month plus or whatever rest here. So
58:02
Speaker 1: the Cowboys come in more rested. And this is the
58:05
Speaker 1: first game of the season. You know, the Cowboys have
58:07
Speaker 1: had this game circled since last year. This is a
58:10
Speaker 1: huge game for the Cowboys. The Cowboys got obliterated by
58:14
Speaker 1: the Eagles in both matchups last year. So the Eagles
58:17
Speaker 1: absolutely handed them their ass in both games last year.
58:20
Speaker 1: But Dak Prescott didn't play in either of those games
58:23
Speaker 1: last year. If you remember, he was injured, and he's
58:26
Speaker 1: their star quarterback. The offense goes through him. He's their
58:28
Speaker 1: best player. So with Prescott out, Cowboys were significantly worse
58:32
Speaker 1: without him. The Cooper rush, I mean, he was alright,
58:36
Speaker 1: but again, without Dak, there wasn't a whole lot they
58:39
Speaker 1: could do. And the last game they played against the
58:41
Speaker 1: Eagles in Week eighteen last year, so that game was
58:45
Speaker 1: totally insignificant. The Eagles had already wrapped up whatever seed
58:49
Speaker 1: they were in the playoffs. I think they were the
58:51
Speaker 1: two seed, is that right. They had already clinched the
58:54
Speaker 1: two seed, I think whatever seed they were, so they
58:56
Speaker 1: didn't play any of their starters, and the Cowboys were
58:59
Speaker 1: without Dak Prescott and I don't even know how how
59:04
Speaker 1: long their starters, they're starters, even went into that game.
59:07
Speaker 1: So they got absolutely annihilated by the Eagles. I think
59:10
Speaker 1: they lost by forty or something in that game. But
59:13
Speaker 1: that game had no meaning really, even though you might say, well,
59:16
Speaker 1: the Cowboys wanted to show up and beat the Eagles
59:18
Speaker 1: in that one for pride or whatever, but the Eagles
59:20
Speaker 1: had already clinched the two seeds, so the Cowboys couldn't
59:22
Speaker 1: even play spoiler in that game. And again they were
59:25
Speaker 1: without Dak. So I don't think you can put much
59:29
Speaker 1: weight into either Cowboys the Eagles game last year. And
59:32
Speaker 1: the results are gonna piss off the Cowboys even more
59:35
Speaker 1: because the Cowboys know that they got destroyed by the
59:38
Speaker 1: Eagles in both games last year. So the Cowboys are
59:40
Speaker 1: gonna come out motivated for that reason too. Again, they're
59:43
Speaker 1: gonna see the banner get raised. They're gonna be extra
59:45
Speaker 1: pissed off for that reason too. I think you're gonna
59:47
Speaker 1: see them motivated Cowboys team in. And by the way,
59:49
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott, you might say, well, the Eagles are still
59:52
Speaker 1: the better team, right, Well, yeah, obviously they are. That's
59:54
Speaker 1: factored into the number that the Eagles are the better team.
59:57
Speaker 1: But you know, you're not gonna get any value on
59:59
Speaker 1: the team that the Super Bowl against a team that
1:00:01
Speaker 1: had a very disappointing season. Really, the value could only
1:00:04
Speaker 1: be had playing the underdog in a game like this.
1:00:06
Speaker 1: You know you're getting charged a price for playing the
1:00:09
Speaker 1: Eagles in a game like this. Cowboys also, I think
1:00:13
Speaker 1: are being undervalued even further, and maybe the line moved
1:00:16
Speaker 1: a little bit further, even though well I did, I
1:00:18
Speaker 1: was gonna say I thought the line did move because
1:00:20
Speaker 1: it might have been a teaser killer situation where the
1:00:22
Speaker 1: oddsmakers kind of know that if that line is sitting
1:00:25
Speaker 1: at seven and a half and there are a lot
1:00:27
Speaker 1: of teasers coming in, so teasers, you play two or
1:00:31
Speaker 1: more teams and you're allowed to tease them down, typically
1:00:35
Speaker 1: a six point teaser, so you move the number six
1:00:38
Speaker 1: points off of what it is, but you have to
1:00:41
Speaker 1: get both sides of it right in like a two
1:00:43
Speaker 1: leg teaser. It's like a parlay, except you get a
1:00:46
Speaker 1: better number on each side, but you need every part
1:00:49
Speaker 1: of it to win. And books charge you more for
1:00:51
Speaker 1: the six point teasers now too, because they know than
1:00:54
Speaker 1: in the NFL. It's actually very advantageous because the NFL
1:00:57
Speaker 1: doesn't really have too many high really high scoring games,
1:01:00
Speaker 1: so the points have a lot of value in the NFL.
1:01:03
Speaker 1: So the osmakers know at this point that the Stanford
1:01:06
Speaker 1: long teaser approach, where you go through both key numbers
1:01:09
Speaker 1: of seven and three. So, for instance, you could take
1:01:12
Speaker 1: the Eagles right now down from eight and a half
1:01:14
Speaker 1: to two and a half. That's going to be a
1:01:15
Speaker 1: popular teaser leg because then you get them below a
1:01:19
Speaker 1: field goal, so that gives you value on that. So
1:01:23
Speaker 1: the books are now charging you probably up to about
1:01:25
Speaker 1: minus one thirty on that instead of minus one twenty.
1:01:27
Speaker 1: When it was minus one twenty, it was like a
1:01:29
Speaker 1: winning proposition man to do that. But now that it's
1:01:32
Speaker 1: minus one twenty five minus one thirty, there's a lot
1:01:34
Speaker 1: less leeway that raise their thin margins. Because the books
1:01:37
Speaker 1: knew professionals were doing that and they were getting some
1:01:41
Speaker 1: serious value on those teasers. Those days are kind of
1:01:44
Speaker 1: gone as well now. But again I still think that
1:01:47
Speaker 1: the line being at seven and a half, you might
1:01:48
Speaker 1: see this line still wind up maybe even getting to nine. Again,
1:01:51
Speaker 1: it wasn't nine at some points, and I thought that
1:01:53
Speaker 1: was a teaser killer because if the books, the books
1:01:55
Speaker 1: will be very quick to move the number from seven
1:01:57
Speaker 1: and a half to nine if a lot of teasers
1:01:59
Speaker 1: are coming in on that favorite because they know that
1:02:02
Speaker 1: if they move it to nine, your six point teaser,
1:02:05
Speaker 1: you can only get it down to three and not
1:02:07
Speaker 1: below the key number three, so that eliminates a lot
1:02:10
Speaker 1: of the value. They're just that number three being so
1:02:12
Speaker 1: significant because if the game lands exactly three, you actually
1:02:16
Speaker 1: lose your teaser if that leg of it pushes, you
1:02:19
Speaker 1: know what I mean. So hopefully that all makes sense
1:02:22
Speaker 1: as well. I don't even remember. Oh right, and then
1:02:25
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I think there's extra value. I'm
1:02:27
Speaker 1: taking a long time to handicap this game, but I'm
1:02:29
Speaker 1: into it. Man. There's extra value on the Cowboys as
1:02:31
Speaker 1: well here because of the Micah Parsons thing where everybody's
1:02:34
Speaker 1: talking about how bad of a trade that was. Oh,
1:02:36
Speaker 1: this is foolish. The Cowboys just trade of Michael Parsons.
1:02:39
Speaker 1: Oh my god, he was like their best player on defense. Yeah,
1:02:43
Speaker 1: that's true, although I will say Parsons has heard a lot.
1:02:47
Speaker 1: He seemed to want out. So do you really want
1:02:50
Speaker 1: a guy on your team that just doesn't want to
1:02:51
Speaker 1: be there. I don't really think so, because the motivation
1:02:54
Speaker 1: could be in question there. And they got something for him. Yeah,
1:02:56
Speaker 1: they got two first round draft picks I think or
1:02:59
Speaker 1: something like that, So that's something or a first and
1:03:01
Speaker 1: a second, I forget what it was. Whatever but they
1:03:03
Speaker 1: also got a guy that they can use right now.
1:03:05
Speaker 1: They got one of Green Bay's defensive linemen in return.
1:03:09
Speaker 1: So the Cowboys lost their best edge rusher, Michael Parsons,
1:03:12
Speaker 1: when they got like a huge defensive tackle I believe
1:03:16
Speaker 1: out of it. So Cowboys, dude, They're still stacked in
1:03:21
Speaker 1: the front seven. Man. The Cowboys front seven is still very,
1:03:25
Speaker 1: very good even without Parsons, and people are just ignoring
1:03:27
Speaker 1: that fact because they just don't know who these guys are.
1:03:30
Speaker 1: The Cowboys, including I forget what his name was, the
1:03:33
Speaker 1: guy that just got from Green Bay. I think he's
1:03:36
Speaker 1: gonna play right away because he was already starting for
1:03:38
Speaker 1: Green Bay. Including him, the Cowboys have a good defensive
1:03:41
Speaker 1: line and good linebackers, so I don't think that's in question.
1:03:45
Speaker 1: I think the Cowboys' biggest defensive weakness is in the secondary,
1:03:49
Speaker 1: and that's because they have some kind of injury concerns
1:03:51
Speaker 1: out there. But the Eagles, what do they do on offense?
1:03:55
Speaker 1: They run the ball? I mean, yeah, sure they could
1:03:57
Speaker 1: throw it. They have Jalen Hurts, they got aj Brown
1:04:01
Speaker 1: to Devonte Smith, and they have Dallas Goddard back. I
1:04:03
Speaker 1: know they can definitely damage you with the pass. But
1:04:06
Speaker 1: the Eagles are a run first offense. They ran on
1:04:09
Speaker 1: a higher percentage of play as I believe than any
1:04:11
Speaker 1: other team in the league last year because they have
1:04:12
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley. But the Cowboys defense, with the talent that
1:04:17
Speaker 1: they have in the front seven, they're better at stopping
1:04:20
Speaker 1: the run even without Park Parsons is better at pass defense.
1:04:24
Speaker 1: Parsons is a pass rushing defensive end man. So the
1:04:28
Speaker 1: Cowboys actually just improve their run defense with that trade actually,
1:04:33
Speaker 1: because now they're getting a run stopping like huge defensive
1:04:37
Speaker 1: lineman there. So Cowboys they're good at stopping the run, man,
1:04:40
Speaker 1: and that matches up well against the Eagles offensive strength
1:04:44
Speaker 1: and what they want to try to do offensively establish
1:04:46
Speaker 1: the run. And if they can't do that and they
1:04:48
Speaker 1: start becoming a little bit more one dimensional towards the pass,
1:04:51
Speaker 1: that could be a little bit of a problem. Man.
1:04:53
Speaker 1: And we know that Barkley didn't do well in the
1:04:55
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. I had the under on his rushing yards
1:04:57
Speaker 1: and that was a pretty easy winner on that when
1:04:59
Speaker 1: he did can do a whole lot in the Super
1:05:01
Speaker 1: Bowl at all. I know the Eagles won, but you
1:05:03
Speaker 1: think if you're winning the whole game, You're gonna be
1:05:04
Speaker 1: running the ball a lot, and Barkley still didn't do anything.
1:05:08
Speaker 1: So Cowboys might be able to watch that game film
1:05:11
Speaker 1: and they might be able to see what the Chiefs
1:05:14
Speaker 1: did and have a way of figuring out how to
1:05:16
Speaker 1: stop Barkley in this game to some extent or at
1:05:19
Speaker 1: least slow him down a little bit. And Barkley had
1:05:21
Speaker 1: a career year last year. Man, So I think there's
1:05:23
Speaker 1: gonna be a regression here. Man. The Eagles had a
1:05:26
Speaker 1: great season last year, better than even what they should
1:05:30
Speaker 1: have I think. So the Eagles overperformed last year, and
1:05:32
Speaker 1: we know the Cowboys underperformed and they lost their quarterback,
1:05:36
Speaker 1: so Cowboys underperformance. So I think there's gonna be regression
1:05:39
Speaker 1: and progression on both sides here. So what you saw
1:05:41
Speaker 1: last year isn't really indicative of what the gap is
1:05:44
Speaker 1: between these two teams. And again, it's a deep it's
1:05:46
Speaker 1: a divisional game. It's huge Cowboys. By the way, I
1:05:50
Speaker 1: forgot to say, because I keep talking about Dak Prescott,
1:05:54
Speaker 1: how he didn't play in either game against the Eagles
1:05:56
Speaker 1: last year. Dak Prescott, He's won four of a last
1:06:00
Speaker 1: five games against the Eagles. He's won eight of his
1:06:03
Speaker 1: last ten games against the Eagles, and overall he's nine
1:06:06
Speaker 1: and four against the Eagles. So Dak Prescott, Cowboys with
1:06:10
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott have been winners against the Eagles. They've been good.
1:06:13
Speaker 1: And we don't even need them to win this game.
1:06:15
Speaker 1: We only need them to come with an eight and
1:06:16
Speaker 1: a half here. So I like that too. Dak Prescott
1:06:19
Speaker 1: does have a really good record against the Eagles, and
1:06:22
Speaker 1: people seem to be kind of overlooking that too. Oh,
1:06:23
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are terrible last year whatever yet well, again,
1:06:26
Speaker 1: they didn't have Dak Prescott for like more than half
1:06:29
Speaker 1: the season. Cowboys still have a really good passing attack. Man.
1:06:32
Speaker 1: I know, their rushing offense looks pretty lousy. Yeah, that's
1:06:35
Speaker 1: a concern, that's a weakness. Cowboys have a good passing
1:06:39
Speaker 1: attack though, Man, Like they're gonna light some teams up
1:06:41
Speaker 1: with the throws. They got Dak Prescott back. They have
1:06:44
Speaker 1: an arsenal of wide receivers. He's still have seeding lamb.
1:06:48
Speaker 1: I believe they picked up George Pickens over the offseasons.
1:06:51
Speaker 1: They have some super talented wide receivers. They always have
1:06:54
Speaker 1: a lot of good wide receivers, man, And that's gonna
1:06:57
Speaker 1: be the case again. I think you're gonna see the
1:06:58
Speaker 1: Cowboys look pretty good as far as the passing offense
1:07:02
Speaker 1: is concerned. Man, So there is that too, But yeah,
1:07:06
Speaker 1: all of that, we're gonna go with the Cowboys. I
1:07:08
Speaker 1: think I've talked about the game for too long here,
1:07:09
Speaker 1: but there's try it a lot to get in. I'm
1:07:11
Speaker 1: gonna have to shorten all that from my Instagram video.
1:07:14
Speaker 1: But Dallas, man, let's do it. Dallas Cowboys plus eight
1:07:17
Speaker 1: and a half. I know you guys hate it, right, Andrew,
1:07:20
Speaker 1: what's up man? Thanks for hanging out. JC, what's up man?
1:07:24
Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out with everybody. You think Dak's gonna
1:07:27
Speaker 1: throw picks? I mean, turnovers are the hardest thing to predict, man, Like,
1:07:31
Speaker 1: if you could predict who's gonna win the turnover battle,
1:07:35
Speaker 1: the books would be out of the osmakers would be
1:07:37
Speaker 1: out of business if people could predict who's gonna win
1:07:40
Speaker 1: the turnover battle, because it's really really difficult to do that,
1:07:43
Speaker 1: especially fumbles, because when a ball goes down to the ground,
1:07:46
Speaker 1: it's basically fifty fifty as far as who's gonna recover
1:07:49
Speaker 1: that fumble. So fumbles are very unpredictable interceptions. I guess
1:07:54
Speaker 1: they're a little bit more predictable if you have an
1:07:56
Speaker 1: interception prone quarterback. But Dak Prescott, I mean, I don't
1:08:00
Speaker 1: really consider him to be one of those. I think
1:08:02
Speaker 1: he's a solid quarterback, and like I said, he's been
1:08:04
Speaker 1: good against the Cowboys, and I think he's gonna be
1:08:06
Speaker 1: pumped to get back out there. Man. I mean, think
1:08:08
Speaker 1: about that. He hasn't played in so long, which you
1:08:11
Speaker 1: might say, well, that means he's not prepared for this,
1:08:13
Speaker 1: but he's played so many years in the NFL, and
1:08:16
Speaker 1: now whatever, I think he's gonna be pumped to be
1:08:18
Speaker 1: back out there. It's kind of like what I say
1:08:19
Speaker 1: with major league pitchers, where at a point they're a
1:08:23
Speaker 1: veteran and they're used to this. They're gonna come back
1:08:25
Speaker 1: and they're gonna play well. And I don't consider this
1:08:27
Speaker 1: to be an injured player spot or anything like that.
1:08:30
Speaker 1: With all the Cowboys were playing without this guy, now
1:08:33
Speaker 1: he's coming back. I mean, it's not really it's not
1:08:36
Speaker 1: affecting the line or anything like that. Of course, Prescott
1:08:38
Speaker 1: playing is being factored into the number, obviously, but I
1:08:42
Speaker 1: mean this is the first game after the entire offseason, man,
1:08:44
Speaker 1: So you don't have that like flaw anymore. Like you
1:08:47
Speaker 1: gotta just take this as an individual game right now.
1:08:49
Speaker 1: At this point, Dak is back baby, the Dak attack.
1:08:55
Speaker 1: So though that's the analysis, man, I know I told
1:08:59
Speaker 1: you guys would not this. You're not gonna like any
1:09:01
Speaker 1: of my NFL plays for the most part. I'm extremely
1:09:04
Speaker 1: contrarian with the NFL plays. But I've done fine in
1:09:07
Speaker 1: the NFL. I'm up over the course of eighteen nineteen
1:09:10
Speaker 1: years whatever it is. I don't think I've had too
1:09:13
Speaker 1: many even losing seasons in the NFL, though some of
1:09:15
Speaker 1: them are close, like right around the number. But that's
1:09:19
Speaker 1: gonna do it. If people are wondering, by the way,
1:09:21
Speaker 1: I cut my face shaving even though I was using
1:09:24
Speaker 1: an electric razor just kind of but this part I
1:09:26
Speaker 1: kind of shave all the way down. I cut my face,
1:09:29
Speaker 1: so that's awesome. So I have a scab coming in there,
1:09:33
Speaker 1: so that's great. Pick the Niners. I if you watched
1:09:39
Speaker 1: my NFL preview, I have the Niners winning their division.
1:09:44
Speaker 1: I have them making the playoffs. I have them as
1:09:46
Speaker 1: a legitimate Super Bowl contender this year. So that probably
1:09:50
Speaker 1: will make you happy, but on a week to week basis,
1:09:54
Speaker 1: it's all gonna depend on the matchup. Man, Like, I'm
1:09:56
Speaker 1: not even convinced that I like the Niners this week,
1:09:58
Speaker 1: even though I think the Seahawks blow Oh the number
1:10:01
Speaker 1: looks like it almost makes it look like a trap,
1:10:04
Speaker 1: Like way too easy to take the Niners in that game.
1:10:06
Speaker 1: I don't think I'm gonna have a I'm not gonna
1:10:08
Speaker 1: have a play on that game. That game is really
1:10:10
Speaker 1: really difficult to read. But that's gonna do it for
1:10:13
Speaker 1: me for now. I man, once again, my two players
1:10:15
Speaker 1: are the Kansas City Royals half been on the run line,
1:10:17
Speaker 1: have been on the money line, and the Dallas Cowboys
1:10:20
Speaker 1: plus the points. Let's get some wins. Let's win the
1:10:23
Speaker 1: first NFL play. Let's start football off on the right
1:10:26
Speaker 1: foot NFL at least. I'll be back man tomorrow night.
1:10:30
Speaker 1: You'll get my Week one college football video as usual.
1:10:33
Speaker 1: I know there are two college football games tomorrow night too.
1:10:36
Speaker 1: I haven't dug into them that much yet, but they
1:10:38
Speaker 1: don't look It doesn't look like I'm gonna have a
1:10:40
Speaker 1: play on either of those games tomorrow, But I will
1:10:42
Speaker 1: talk about them on the show, because that's what I do. Yeah,
1:10:47
Speaker 1: so and then again late night, like midnight tomorrow night,
1:10:50
Speaker 1: I'll be there doing the college football Week one analysis.
1:10:53
Speaker 1: Don't even have any ideas for what my players are
1:10:56
Speaker 1: gonna be in college football, man, I gotta bear down
1:10:58
Speaker 1: and do it. There are with situations that I was
1:11:01
Speaker 1: looking at that I was like, oh, I want to
1:11:02
Speaker 1: go against this team, and then I looked and then
1:11:05
Speaker 1: the team they were playing was in a bad situation
1:11:07
Speaker 1: to him, like, oh, you got to be kidding me.
1:11:09
Speaker 1: I hate when that happens because I do pretty much
1:11:12
Speaker 1: all sides. So we'll see, and then the NFL weekly
1:11:15
Speaker 1: videos will start. So Saturday night I will be hitting
1:11:17
Speaker 1: you with the NFL Week one video, and I will
1:11:20
Speaker 1: I'll give you at least an opinion on every single
1:11:24
Speaker 1: NFL game because that's what I started doing last year.
1:11:26
Speaker 1: It's not that many games to do, so I will
1:11:27
Speaker 1: do that. It might help you with pick them pools
1:11:30
Speaker 1: and whatever. And maybe talk about Survivor a little bit too,
1:11:33
Speaker 1: because I'm in a pretty big money survive Survivor pool,
1:11:37
Speaker 1: the big one that's on Splash. So I don't want
1:11:39
Speaker 1: to lose Survivor right away, man, So I have to
1:11:41
Speaker 1: make a decision for Survivor Week one. I'm not playing
1:11:44
Speaker 1: the Eagles and Survivor though. I think there are better
1:11:46
Speaker 1: spots throughout the season that you can use them, because
1:11:48
Speaker 1: you know how good the Eagles are. So I'm not
1:11:50
Speaker 1: going to use the Eagles in a very questionable Week
1:11:53
Speaker 1: one matchup, but I got to figure out who I
1:11:55
Speaker 1: want to use for Survivor. Curtis, thank you for showing up, man,
1:11:59
Speaker 1: Thanks everybody for showing up. The Illuminati humiliation ritual? What
1:12:04
Speaker 1: are you referring to, Jeffrey which what's the humiliation ritual?
1:12:09
Speaker 1: You can let me know. Let me know in the comments.
1:12:11
Speaker 1: I gotta get out of here, though, but I'll check
1:12:12
Speaker 1: the comments after the show as well. You can still
1:12:14
Speaker 1: comment on the video even if it's over. That's gonna
1:12:16
Speaker 1: do it for me. Learn it Toad on Twitter, learned
1:12:18
Speaker 1: Toad on Instagram. Better off, Dad, Like, subscribe to the
1:12:22
Speaker 1: channel here, get me some more subscribers and viewers and everything. Man,
1:12:27
Speaker 1: I'm on the audio as well. Give me good reviews
1:12:29
Speaker 1: over there, Apple and Spotify. Covered in You is my
1:12:33
Speaker 1: UK Lately channel on YouTube. I gotta get that corn
1:12:36
Speaker 1: cover that I put up yesterday up there on YouTube
1:12:38
Speaker 1: gotta keep with it, and then Patreon and on behind
1:12:40
Speaker 1: on the Spotify feed for patroon, but patreon dot com
1:12:43
Speaker 1: slash learned Toad. There's a Spotify yuke feed that you
1:12:46
Speaker 1: can get there, which is kind of weird, I know,
1:12:48
Speaker 1: because it's a UK podcast basically. And then because I'm
1:12:52
Speaker 1: not an artist on Spotify. And then there are there's
1:12:57
Speaker 1: a high tier with prioritis requests if I'm able to
1:13:01
Speaker 1: do them. I don't think anybody's even at that here
1:13:03
Speaker 1: right now. So enjoy, everybody, have a good Thursday. Enjoy
1:13:07
Speaker 1: the start of football. Hopefully it's an entertaining game, and
1:13:10
Speaker 1: hopefully it's a close game because that means that our
1:13:12
Speaker 1: bet has a good shot of winning. If it is,
1:13:14
Speaker 1: that's gonna do it. Peace out, everybody, have a good Thursday,
1:13:18
Speaker 1: and I'll see you tomorrow