Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 3979 The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Just EXPLODED!!!
Transcript
- 0:00[SPEAKER_00]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
- 0:06[SPEAKER_00]: Dr. Steve Turley, join me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
- 0:18[SPEAKER_00]: This is Turley Talks.
- 0:21[SPEAKER_00]: There's a moment in every geopolitical confrontation when the bluff gets cold.
- 0:26[SPEAKER_00]: When the sign that thought it had leverage realizes the leverage is gone.
- 0:31[SPEAKER_00]: When the price of its gamble appears right there on a chart and real time for the whole world to see, that moment for the Islamic Republic of Iran is right now.
- 0:43[SPEAKER_00]: and the number that proves it is staring us all right in the face as I record this video.
- 0:48[SPEAKER_00]: That number tells you everything you need to know about who is actually winning the end game of this war and why Iran's Great Hormuz Gambit has just definitively failed.
- 1:00[SPEAKER_00]: Stick them in the very end of this video because when I'm about to show you connects military strategy, global energy markets, and the political future of the Trump administration in a way
- 1:13[SPEAKER_00]: anywhere else.
- 1:15[SPEAKER_00]: Again, it's me, Dr. Steve, you're a patron professor here to help you make sense of the madness.
- 1:19[SPEAKER_00]: We're breaking news and analysis, you're not going to get anywhere else, so you know what?
- 1:23[SPEAKER_00]: To do make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button.
- 1:26[SPEAKER_00]: We've got an extraordinary confluence of events to unpack today, and when you put it all together.
- 1:32[SPEAKER_00]: The picture is one of extraordinary American strategic success, not the kind that gets declared in a rose garden ceremony with a shiny new pea steel, but the quiet, grinding, kinetic kind of success that happens when a superpower just refuses to stop applying pressure until the other side runs out of options and ends up dissipating an entirely new civilizational order.
- 1:59[SPEAKER_00]: It's extraordinary stuff.
- 2:01[SPEAKER_00]: Let's start with the basic architecture.
- 2:03[SPEAKER_00]: What Iran was actually trying to do, because without understanding the strategy, you can't understand why it's failing.
- 2:09[SPEAKER_00]: After the two to three week war in which roughly 10% of US military capability wiped out 100% of Iran's Air Force and Navy within a single week, the Islamic Republic had a problem.
- 2:23[SPEAKER_00]: They had been militarily obliterated.
- 2:25[SPEAKER_00]: They had been rendered inert,
- 2:28[SPEAKER_00]: Their conventional deterrent was gone, their air defense is shattered, their navy was at the bottom of the sea, and so stripped of the ability to project power, to fight back in any conventional military sense, they fell back on the one cart they had left, and that's the straight of horror moves.
- 2:48[SPEAKER_00]: You see, you don't need a navy to threaten the straight-of-form moves, which you need is mines, which Iran has been laying in the straight, since the seas fire went in with fact on April 8th, and what you need is coastal missile batteries, dozens of missile launch sites carved into the mountain sides, along Iran's southern coastline there, pointing down at any ship foolish enough to try to transit those waters, and that's
- 3:19[SPEAKER_00]: Ever since they've been deliberately trying to pressure President Trump by closing off 20% of the world's oil supply that flows through the straight spiking the price of oil and hurting Trump politically.
- 3:32[SPEAKER_00]: And so just two days ago.
- 3:35[SPEAKER_00]: Trump ordered U.S. forces to strike Iranian targets in and around Hormuz.
- 3:41[SPEAKER_00]: They sank Iranian mind-laying boats.
- 3:44[SPEAKER_00]: They struck Bonda Raabas, Iran's major port city at the narrowest part of the straight.
- 3:50[SPEAKER_00]: They struck Jask, which sits directly opposite the UAE's critical oil bypass forts at Fajera and Khorfa Khan.
- 3:59[SPEAKER_00]: The terminals that receive oil via overland pipeline specifically designed to avoid the straight of hormones.
- 4:05[SPEAKER_00]: They struck Syrik, another missile launch site on the southern coast, and there were explosions reported near Larrick Island, which sits right at the lowest choke point of the entire straight.
- 4:18[SPEAKER_00]: What the United States was doing, there's absolutely key.
- 4:22[SPEAKER_00]: These were strategic strikes.
- 4:24[SPEAKER_00]: We systematically destroyed the missile sites that enforced the Hormuz closure.
- 4:31[SPEAKER_00]: It was telling the Iranian regime in effect, look, every time you lay a mind, every time you point a missile at a tanker, we're gonna come back and we're gonna knock out another battery.
- 4:42[SPEAKER_00]: And we're gonna just keep doing this until there's basically nothing left to threaten those ships with.
- 4:48[SPEAKER_00]: and this is where the oil market tells the story better than any press release ever could.
- 4:54[SPEAKER_00]: This is the number that changes everything and think about this arc, okay?
- 5:00[SPEAKER_00]: So at the height of the war's most intense phase and early May,
- 5:04[SPEAKER_00]: Brent Crude hit 115 dollars a barrel, a reflection of the world's terror that 20% of global oil and gas supply was like permanently locked behind an Iranian mine barrier with no resolution insight.
- 5:20[SPEAKER_00]: By May 22nd, as Cease Fire talk and nuclear deal rumors swirl,
- 5:26[SPEAKER_00]: That price dropped to $104.
- 5:27[SPEAKER_00]: By May 26, it was at $100.
- 5:28[SPEAKER_00]: And today, May 27th, Brent is $95 to 64 cents and WTI West Texas has crashed to $89.87.
- 5:33[SPEAKER_00]: Down over 4% in a single session, sitting at a five week low.
- 5:53[SPEAKER_00]: The markets are clearly reading the tea leaves here.
- 5:57[SPEAKER_00]: Once it becomes clear that the straight will indeed be open, either by deal or by force, the oil that's been piling up in tankers and storage facilities around the world, oil that's speculators, but at futures prices, expecting a hundred and fifty or two hundred dollars a barrel is going to
- 6:15[SPEAKER_00]: flood the market all at once in those speculators are going to be racing each other to unload it as fast as humanly possible.
- 6:25[SPEAKER_00]: That is the futures market you're watching collapse in real time right now and it's collapsing because the world has just watched
- 6:33[SPEAKER_00]: The United States systematically dismantle Iran's ability to keep that straight closed.
- 6:40[SPEAKER_00]: And this is what's so key here in Trump blowing up Iran's entire strategy in the straight.
- 6:46[SPEAKER_00]: You see, the Iranians always knew especially with the midterms fast approaching that their ace card in these negotiations was the price of oil.
- 6:55[SPEAKER_00]: They knew Trump desperately wanted that number down.
- 6:59[SPEAKER_00]: He's been very public about wanting oil at about $60 a barrel, and every time it looked like military action might ramp back up oil spiked, which created a political headache for an administration that had promised Americans energy relief.
- 7:13[SPEAKER_00]: This was sort of the rope adope that Iran was running, you know, keep talking, keep stalling, keep laying minds to maintain the threat and hope Trump blinks, like every other president before him, because he can't afford a spike back to $155 a barrel or so, but there's just one problem with that strategy.
- 7:35[SPEAKER_00]: It turns out it's a run that was actually bluffing throughout the entire thing.
- 7:41[SPEAKER_00]: The global crisis, they thought they could effectively orchestrate, it turns out it doesn't actually exist.
- 7:50[SPEAKER_00]: You see, it's not just the military-minded, the U.S. forces that's assuring the oil markets that better times are ahead, something else,
- 8:02[SPEAKER_00]: just happen.
- 8:03[SPEAKER_00]: And President Trump has just effectively called their bluff.
- 8:07[SPEAKER_00]: Wait until you see this, but you never wonder how people like Nancy Pelosi seem to know exactly when to buy certain stocks, right?
- 8:16[SPEAKER_00]: How politicians seem to have secret knowledge of what's going to do well in the market?
- 8:21[SPEAKER_00]: Well, you know what it is.
- 8:22[SPEAKER_00]: It's all insider trading.
- 8:24[SPEAKER_00]: Pelosi and her cronies have been getting
- 8:30[SPEAKER_00]: actually have access to that very same inside information.
- 8:34[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks to a little SEC loophole, we can track with the big corporate CEOs are buying up in real time and that we could just ride their coat tails in a financial success legally and ethically.
- 8:46[SPEAKER_00]: And once you learn the secret of the trade, you're in.
- 8:49[SPEAKER_00]: Now, to do that, you've got to join me along with my good friend and trading expert, Ross Givins.
- 8:54[SPEAKER_00]: This Thursday, May 28th at 3 p.m. Eastern, Ross is the real deal.
- 8:59[SPEAKER_00]: His insider tips have led to returns of over 200% some of it is nearly high as 1500% it's going to be huge, but seating is limited.
- 9:09[SPEAKER_00]: So click the link below, snag one of those remaining seats.
- 9:13[SPEAKER_00]: This is going to change your life gang.
- 9:15[SPEAKER_00]: You can't afford to miss it.
- 9:17[SPEAKER_00]: Investors are increasingly recognizing that the oil crisis, the legacy media has been desperately trying to sell us on, doesn't actually exist.
- 9:27[SPEAKER_00]: You see, this is the other side of the military force card.
- 9:32[SPEAKER_00]: Trump is playing two cards here, a military force card in the region, but a non-scarcity card on the other.
- 9:41[SPEAKER_00]: We're learning more and more that the scarcity never really existed.
- 9:45[SPEAKER_00]: The oil scarcity, the United States is pumping more oil than any other point in our history, than as well as pumping at record levels, the UAE is pulled out of OPEX.
- 9:55[SPEAKER_00]: Price fixing scheme is beginning to sell more oil at lower prices.
- 9:59[SPEAKER_00]: There's abundant oil everywhere on earth.
- 10:04[SPEAKER_00]: In the end, what was once 20% of it via the straight-up horror moves, even that it's just stuck.
- 10:13[SPEAKER_00]: It's not like it's gone.
- 10:15[SPEAKER_00]: It just can't move because it's trapped behind Iranian mines and Iranian missile batteries.
- 10:21[SPEAKER_00]: Open the straight and the dam breaks, and that's precisely why Trump took out what appears to be the last vestiges of Iran's rapidly depleting military in the horror
- 10:33[SPEAKER_00]: what Trump demonstrated there in these latest rounds of strikes is that the military apparatus that allowed the regime to survive all these years has basically been eliminated.
- 10:47[SPEAKER_00]: That, I believe, is what's beginning to cause the price of oil to plunge to five week lows.
- 10:55[SPEAKER_00]: Investors are beginning to see that not only is this oil shortage non-existent,
- 11:02[SPEAKER_00]: They're beginning to see that there really is no future for this regime.
- 11:07[SPEAKER_00]: They were a fee, they didn't know over the last couple of months.
- 11:11[SPEAKER_00]: They didn't know how this would be turned out.
- 11:13[SPEAKER_00]: But more and more, they're recognizing that while we don't know what form the regime will take on the other side of this conflict, whatever form it takes, it will be left relatively inert without the ability to project power either domestically or regionally and that includes the straight of hormones.
- 11:31[SPEAKER_00]: So let me give you the bottom line here, the synthesis of everything we've seen this week, in the markets, in the battlefield, in the strategic analysis, Iran walked into this war believing that the Strait of Hormuz was its ultimate trump card.
- 11:47[SPEAKER_00]: They believed that a regime which controlled that choke point controlled the global economy.
- 11:52[SPEAKER_00]: They believe that the threat of $150 or $200 oil would be enough to deter American force frustrate American resolve and buy them the time they needed to either complete their nuclear program or negotiate a lifeline deal.
- 12:08[SPEAKER_00]: They were wrong on every count.
- 12:11[SPEAKER_00]: U.S. military destroyed their conventional forces literally in a matter of days.
- 12:16[SPEAKER_00]: American oil production combined with the U.A.E.'
- 12:19[SPEAKER_00]: 's pipeline bypass and global supply surpluses, Venezuela and the like meant that the oil weapon was never really as powerful as they imagined.
- 12:31[SPEAKER_00]: It was at the beginning of all of this, but because of America's stunning oil production along with Venezuela's and UAE's and Saudi Arabia's Red Sea bypassing of Hormuz, we're now realizing that there really is no oil shortage.
- 12:46[SPEAKER_00]: And now is the missile sites that enforce their Hormuz closure are being methodically eliminated one strike at a time.
- 12:55[SPEAKER_00]: The markets are writing the epitaph for Iran's great geopolitical gamble in real time, $89, a barrel and falling.
- 13:05[SPEAKER_00]: The price of oil is finally falling, and with it, Iran's last remaining point of leverage.
- 13:15[SPEAKER_00]: The regime has not gone yet.
- 13:17[SPEAKER_00]: The deal may or may not happen.
- 13:20[SPEAKER_00]: There are still decisions to be made.
- 13:22[SPEAKER_00]: There are still ways for this to go wrong.
- 13:26[SPEAKER_00]: But here's what we know for certain.
- 13:29[SPEAKER_00]: Iran, bed, its entire strategic future on the Hormuz choke point.
- 13:34[SPEAKER_00]: And America's in the process of taking that card out of their hand permanently.
- 13:40[SPEAKER_00]: We are in a far, far better position today than we were before this war began.
- 13:45[SPEAKER_00]: And as President Trump just said today, at his cabinet meeting, when this war is over, the world will have an energy abundance, the likes of which it has never seen.
- 13:57[SPEAKER_00]: And the United States will be at the global center of it all.
- 14:02[SPEAKER_00]: Look, if you want to go deeper than what you see here on YouTube, the courageous Patriot Club is where that happens.
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- 14:18[SPEAKER_00]: I would love to see you in there.
- 14:20[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks so much for listening this episode of the Turley Talks Podcast.
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