Latest / How Canadian Markets Work / Episode 66: Rights vs Warrants vs Options (The Dilution Distinction)
Transcript
- 0:00Imagine you own shares in a company. Let's say
- 0:03you've got a nice clean 10 % slice of the corporate
- 0:06pie. You did your homework, you read the earnings
- 0:09reports you bought in, and you're holding on
- 0:11for the long haul. You haven't sold a single
- 0:14share. The broader market hasn't panicked, the
- 0:17company hasn't even reported any bad news, yet
- 0:20somehow you wake up one morning, check your portfolio,
- 0:24and your 10 % slice of that pie just shrank to
- 0:279%. Yeah, which is just the worst feeling. Your
- 0:30piece of the company is literally smaller. Why?
- 0:35Because someone else, somewhere, pushed a button.
- 0:37It's an incredibly frustrating scenario for any
- 0:40investor. And the wild part is that, you know,
- 0:42it happens every single day across the market.
- 0:44Totally. We like to think of our ownership in
- 0:46a business as static. You figure, well, if I
- 0:49don't sell my shares, my stake in the ground
- 0:50doesn't move. But the reality of modern financial
- 0:53markets is it's much more fluid. Right. And honestly,
- 0:56a lot more heavily engineered behind the scenes
- 0:58than most people realize. Which perfectly sets
- 1:01up our mission for today's deep dive. We're getting
- 1:03into what we're calling. the dilution distinction.
- 1:06I like that name. Thanks. So today we are unpacking
- 1:10three financial instruments that sound incredibly
- 1:13similar on paper. If you follow the markets,
- 1:16you see these terms constantly, right? Rights,
- 1:19warrants, and options. Exactly. At a fundamental
- 1:21level, they all do the exact same thing. They
- 1:24give someone the right to buy shares of a stock
- 1:26at a set price. But here is where it gets really
- 1:29interesting. Yeah. While two of them secretly
- 1:32shrink your ownership percentage, which is what
- 1:35we call dilution. The third one doesn't affect
- 1:37you at all. And for you, the learner trying to
- 1:40navigate your own portfolio, these terms just
- 1:42get thrown around interchangeably by the financial
- 1:44press all the time. Oh, absolutely. You read
- 1:46an article that says a company has a massive
- 1:48amount of options or warrants outstanding, and
- 1:50it's just so easy to glaze over it as dense financial
- 1:54jargon. Yeah, you just kind of skip to the next
- 1:56paragraph. Right. But we aren't just going to
- 1:58read off textbook definitions today. We are going
- 2:01to look at the exact mechanics of how the money
- 2:04and the shares actually move. Because if you're
- 2:06going to put your hard -earned cash into a company,
- 2:09you really need to know how to spot these hidden
- 2:12claims before they start shrinking your slice
- 2:15of the pie. Exactly. So to figure out why your
- 2:18slice shrank in the first place, we have to trace
- 2:21the shares back to the source. Right. We can't
- 2:24just look at the person buying the shares. We
- 2:26had to look at who actually hit the print button
- 2:28on those new shares. The identity of the issuer
- 2:31is the single distinction that determines who
- 2:34bears the cost when these instruments are used.
- 2:36It dictates everything about where the money
- 2:38flows. So think about this like concert tickets.
- 2:41Let's say you have a ticket to a sold out stadium
- 2:43show. You're inside. You're enjoying the music.
- 2:46Sounds great. Now out in the parking lot, a fan
- 2:49decides to sell their ticket to another fan who
- 2:51really wants to get in. When that transaction
- 2:54happens, the stadium itself doesn't get any bigger,
- 2:57right? No, of course not. And the band doesn't
- 3:00get any more money. The total number of people
- 3:03allowed inside the venue stays exactly the same.
- 3:06It's just a different person is sitting in seat
- 3:084B. Right. But what if the venue management secretly
- 3:11prints a thousand more tickets at the back door
- 3:14and just, I don't know, sells them for half price?
- 3:17Well, then you've got a problem. Yeah. Suddenly
- 3:19the general admission floor is packed, you can't
- 3:21even see the stage, and your entire experience
- 3:24is diluted because the space is overflowing.
- 3:27That analogy maps perfectly to the financial
- 3:29plumbing we're talking about here. Let's draw
- 3:31the absolute line between these instruments right
- 3:33now using your stadium. OK, let's do it. That
- 3:36first scenario, fans, trading tickets in the
- 3:39parking lot, that is an exchange traded option.
- 3:42An option is a contract created strictly between
- 3:45two market participants. The company whose stock
- 3:48is being traded is merely the subject of the
- 3:50contract. They aren't a party to it. Meaning
- 3:53the company itself has absolutely nothing to
- 3:55do with the fact that this contract was even
- 3:58written. It's not a thing. If I own a hundred
- 4:00shares of a tech company and I sell you a call
- 4:03option giving you the right to buy my shares
- 4:05at a specific price, that agreement lives strictly
- 4:08between you and me. Just two fans in the parking
- 4:10lot. Exactly. The clearing house facilitates
- 4:13it, but the company is completely oblivious.
- 4:16If the stock goes up, and you exercise that option,
- 4:20I am legally obligated to hand my existing shares
- 4:23over to you. Right. The company creates no new
- 4:26shares to make this happen. They receive zero
- 4:28cash from your purchase. The total share count
- 4:31in the market stays exactly the same. So no other
- 4:33shareholder is affected. Consequently, no other
- 4:36shareholder in that company is diluted by our
- 4:39transaction. It's just a transfer of existing
- 4:41shares. Someone else takes seat 4B, but the stadium
- 4:44capacity hasn't changed. But now look at rights
- 4:47and These are the tickets being printed at the
- 4:49back door of the venue. Uh -oh. Yeah. Both rights
- 4:52and warrants are issued directly by the company
- 4:54itself. They don't originate on an exchange between
- 4:58two random traders. So when an investor holds
- 5:01a warrant and decides it's time to exercise it,
- 5:04they aren't buying shares from another investor
- 5:06in the secondary market. The company literally
- 5:09creates brand new shares out of thin air. Wow.
- 5:12And then they hand them directly to the warrant
- 5:14holder and absorb their cash. So the total share
- 5:17count physically rises? Yes, it does. And if
- 5:20the total number of shares in existence goes
- 5:22up, but my personal number of shares in my brokerage
- 5:25account stays exactly the same? Then your percentage
- 5:28of the overall company just drop? I'm diluted.
- 5:31You are diluted. And that is the absolute baseline
- 5:34takeaway you need to lock in today. If a massive
- 5:37hedge fund exercises a million exchange traded
- 5:39call options on a company you own, nothing happens
- 5:42to your ownership stake. Because the total share
- 5:45count didn't change. Right. But if they exercise
- 5:47a million company issued rights or warrants,
- 5:49your ownership percentage just dropped and your
- 5:51shares are mathematically worth less. Wait, wait,
- 5:54hold on. Let me push back on that for a second.
- 5:55Yeah. Let's think about the actual mechanics
- 5:57of that. If the company is issuing these brand
- 6:00new shares, They're collecting cash for them,
- 6:03right? The warrant holder can't just get the
- 6:05shares for free. No, they have to pay the exercise
- 6:07price. Right. So yes, the total share count goes
- 6:09up. But the company now has millions of dollars
- 6:13of fresh cash sitting in their bank account.
- 6:15Their enterprise value just went up. Shouldn't
- 6:18that completely balance out the fact that there
- 6:21are more shares? I mean, why is this automatically
- 6:23a bad deal for my portfolio? It's a completely
- 6:26logical question, and honestly, it's the hurdle
- 6:29most retail investors trip over. It really feels
- 6:32like it should balance out. The company got cash.
- 6:35Yeah, more cash is good. But the problem lies
- 6:37entirely in the price at which those new shares
- 6:40are being sold. Let's walk through a precise
- 6:43math example straight from the source material
- 6:45to show why it absolutely does not balance out.
- 6:48Walk me through it. Let's hear the math. Imagine
- 6:50you own shares in a manufacturing company. Currently,
- 6:54this company has 10 million shares outstanding
- 6:56in the wild, and they are trading on the open
- 6:59market today at $20 a share. OK, simple enough.
- 7:0210 million shares times 20 bucks a share. So
- 7:06the total market value, the market cap is 200
- 7:09million dollars. Spot on. Now, let's look at
- 7:12the hidden claims. Somewhere in the company's
- 7:14past, they issued 1 million warrants to an early
- 7:17investor. And these specific warrants give that
- 7:21investor the right to buy new shares directly
- 7:23from the company at $15 a share. $15. But the
- 7:29stock is trading on the open market right now
- 7:30at $20. Naturally, the warrant holders see this,
- 7:33right? And they decide to exercise their rights.
- 7:35They push the button. Because it's a great deal
- 7:37for them? Exactly. The company is contractually
- 7:39forced to issue 1 million brand new shares. In
- 7:42exchange, the warrant holders wire the company
- 7:45$15 for each of those shares. So the company
- 7:47just received $15 million in fresh cash. Let's
- 7:51recalculate the total value of the company. It
- 7:53was worth $200 million yesterday. It just added
- 7:56$15 million in hard cash to its balance sheet
- 7:59this morning. So the total value of the business
- 8:00is $215 million. Sounds great on paper. The company
- 8:04is objectively worth more money than it was yesterday.
- 8:06It is. But look at the denominator in that equation.
- 8:10Look at the new share count. Right, the new shares.
- 8:12We started with 10 million shares. We were forced
- 8:15to issue 1 million new ones to the warrant holders.
- 8:18So that $215 million of total value is no longer
- 8:22divided by 10. It is now spread across 11 million
- 8:26shares. OK, let me do that math real quick. If
- 8:29we take the $215 million total value. and divided
- 8:34by the new total of 11 million shares, that comes
- 8:38out to, wait, $19 .55 per share. Down from $20.
- 8:43Wow. So what does this actually mean for me,
- 8:44the existing shareholder who just held the stock
- 8:47and literally did nothing? Well, yesterday your
- 8:50shares were worth 20 bucks. Today, purely because
- 8:52someone else exercised a contract, your shares
- 8:54are worth 19 .55. I just lost about 2 .25 % of
- 8:57the value of my investment and I had absolutely
- 8:59zero say in the matter. None. The crucial thing
- 9:02to understand is why you lost that value. It's
- 9:04because the company essentially sold $20 shares
- 9:07for $15. Yeah, that makes sense. They sold a
- 9:09piece of the underlying business at a steep discount
- 9:12to the current market reality. Yes, the 15 million
- 9:16in cash they received made the pie slightly larger,
- 9:20but they gave away a disproportionate amount
- 9:22of equity to get it. So today's shareholders
- 9:24are essentially paying the financial price for
- 9:26a discounted deal that was negotiated years in
- 9:29the past. Exactly. That is a brutal reality check.
- 9:32The pie got bigger because of the cash, but it
- 9:35was sliced into so many additional pieces that
- 9:37my individual slice is objectively less filling.
- 9:40And that silent wealth transfer away from you
- 9:42and toward the warrant holder is exactly why
- 9:45understanding dilution is so critical. All right,
- 9:48so if both rights and warrants create new shares
- 9:50out of thin air and both of them cause this,
- 9:53you know, painful dilution for existing shareholders.
- 9:56Why do companies use two different tools? Good
- 9:58question. Like, why have a right and a warrant
- 10:01if they act the same way on the balance sheet?
- 10:03It all comes down to the strategy behind the
- 10:05corporate finance. You really have to look at
- 10:07who is receiving these instruments and how long
- 10:11they last before they expire. It breaks down
- 10:14to a difference of sweeteners versus survival.
- 10:17Sweeteners versus survival. OK, let me try to
- 10:19map this out. Let's imagine an exclusive country
- 10:22club. Sure. And the club suddenly needs a bunch
- 10:26of money to build a massive new swimming pool.
- 10:31Our train first feels like the club going to
- 10:34its current loyal members and saying, hey, we're
- 10:37doing a cheap expansion. because you've been
- 10:39here for years. We're giving you first dibs to
- 10:41buy in at a discount so you can maintain your
- 10:43VIP status and not get crowded out. Yes. That's
- 10:46a great way to think about rights, whereas warrants
- 10:48operate on a totally different incentive structure.
- 10:50OK, how so? To use your analogy, warrants are
- 10:53like the club management handing out long -term
- 10:55VIP passes to wealthy outside investors just
- 10:57to convince them to fund the pool construction
- 10:59in the first place. Ah, I see. And the problem
- 11:02is, those VIP passes might be valid for three
- 11:05or four years. By the time those outside investors
- 11:08finally decide to use them, the pool is already
- 11:11built, it's fully paid for, and suddenly these
- 11:13outsiders are just crowding your swim lane. So
- 11:16they get all the upside long after the initial
- 11:18risk is passed. Exactly. Let's look at the mechanics
- 11:21of warrants first. As we noted, warrants are
- 11:24generally long dated. We're talking lifespans
- 11:28of two, three, sometimes five years. That is
- 11:30a long time in the market. It is. And they're
- 11:33almost always issued as a sweetener to get a
- 11:35tough deal over the finish line. Right. Imagine
- 11:38a company is struggling to raise capital. Maybe
- 11:40they're a high risk mining venture or an early
- 11:42stage biotech firm. They go to a large institutional
- 11:45investor and say, if you buy a block of our shares
- 11:48today at market price, we will also staple a
- 11:51warrant to those shares. Giving them the ability
- 11:53to buy even more shares at a set price any time
- 11:56in the next three years. Exactly. So the institutional
- 11:58investor buys the core shares, but they also
- 12:01get a long -term lottery ticket just in case
- 12:03the company discovers gold or cures a disease.
- 12:06And this isn't some rare exotic transaction,
- 12:08by the way. In certain sectors, like the Canadian
- 12:11small cap and resource markets, this is standard
- 12:14everyday plumbing. Really? Oh yeah. Companies
- 12:17in those spaces frequently issue what they call
- 12:19units, which typically consist of one common
- 12:22share plus a half warrant. They have to offer
- 12:25that sweetener because the risk of the underlying
- 12:27business is so high. Makes sense. But because
- 12:30warrants are long dated, they do suffer from
- 12:32what we call time decay. If the company's stock
- 12:35price goes absolutely nowhere for three years,
- 12:38that warrant slowly loses its speculative value
- 12:41as the clock runs out and eventually it expires
- 12:44worthless. Got it. Warrants go to the big players.
- 12:47They act as a deal sweetener and they hang over
- 12:49the company for years. Now, what about rights?
- 12:52How does the country club treat its existing
- 12:55members? Well, rights are practically the inverse
- 12:57of warrants. First, they are short -dated. Our
- 13:00rights offering usually only lasts a few weeks.
- 13:02Wow, that's quick. Very quick. Second, the exercise
- 13:06price is deliberately set well below the current
- 13:08market price of the stock. And most importantly,
- 13:12rights are issued pro rata directly to existing
- 13:15shareholders. Pro rata. meaning they are distributed
- 13:18proportionally based on how many shares I already
- 13:21have sitting in my account. Yes. The entire philosophical
- 13:25purpose of a rights offering is to allow you,
- 13:28the existing shareholder, to maintain your exact
- 13:31percentage of ownership in the company without
- 13:33suffering dilution. OK. The company needs cash.
- 13:36They're going to issue new shares, but they're
- 13:39giving you the very first opportunity to buy
- 13:40them. They're basically saying, if you want your
- 13:43slice of the pie to stay the same size, here
- 13:45is your discounted ticket to keep up with the
- 13:47new share count. But this brings up a massive
- 13:49flashing practical warning for anyone listening
- 13:52to this deep dive. We have to talk about the
- 13:54danger of the rights envelope. We really do.
- 13:57Because rights are issued automatically to current
- 13:59shareholders. You will literally get a physical
- 14:02notification in the mail. like a corporate action
- 14:05alert pop up in your brokerage portal explicitly
- 14:08stating that you've been issued rights. And you
- 14:11have a very narrow window to make a decision.
- 14:13Right. And you basically have three choices.
- 14:15Yeah. Choice one, you participate, you click
- 14:18the button, you exercise your rights, you send
- 14:20the company more of your cash, and you buy those
- 14:23discounted shares. As we saw in the math earlier,
- 14:27by doing this, you stay neutral. You bought enough
- 14:30new shares to ensure you don't lose your overall
- 14:32percentage of the company. Exactly. Choice two,
- 14:35you sell the rights. Because these rights inherently
- 14:38have value, they literally give whoever holds
- 14:41them the power to buy stock at a steep discount,
- 14:44you can turn around and sell those rights to
- 14:46another investor on the open market. OK. Again,
- 14:49from a wealth perspective, you stay relatively
- 14:51neutral. You suffer the dilution. But you receive
- 14:54a lump sum of cash from selling the rights that
- 14:56compensates you for the drop in your share value.
- 14:59But choice three. Choice three is ignoring it.
- 15:02And this is where it gets incredibly dangerous
- 15:04for retail investors. Oh, absolutely. Think about
- 15:07how much physical mail you get from your brokerage
- 15:09that looks like dense legal jargon which just
- 15:12goes straight into the shredder. Or how many
- 15:14unread alerts sit in your trading app. Too many.
- 15:18If you get a rights offering and you ignore it,
- 15:20you are mathematically guaranteed to lose money.
- 15:23It is the only choice out of the three with a
- 15:25guaranteed unrecoverable loss. Let's put the
- 15:28hard numbers to this straight for the research.
- 15:30Let's say you own 400 shares of a stock that's
- 15:33currently trading at $20. Your total investment
- 15:36is worth $8 ,000. OK, following. The company
- 15:39announces a one -for -four rights offer, letting
- 15:42shareholders buy new shares at a discounted price
- 15:44of $16. Because you own 400 shares, the pro rata
- 15:48math dictates you receive enough rights to buy
- 15:51100 new shares. But you're busy. You don't read
- 15:53the mail, you let the few weeks pass, and the
- 15:56rights simply expire. The broader offering still
- 15:59goes through. Everyone else participates. The
- 16:01new cheap $16 shares flood the market. The overall
- 16:04stock price adjusts downward to account for the
- 16:07heavy dilution. Right, because of the extra shares.
- 16:09Exactly. In this specific scenario, the theoretical
- 16:12price drops to $19 .20. Now, you still have your
- 16:16original 400 shares sitting in your account,
- 16:18but they are no longer worth $20. They're worth
- 16:20$19 .20 each. Which means your initial $8 ,000
- 16:23investment is now only worth $7 ,680. You started
- 16:28with $8 ,000. You ended with $7 ,680. You just
- 16:31lost $320, not because the company had a bad
- 16:35quarter, not because the market crashed. You
- 16:36lost 320 bucks simply because you didn't open
- 16:39your mail. And we have to ask, where did that
- 16:41$320 actually go? Good point. Where did it go?
- 16:44It didn't just evaporate into the ether. It was
- 16:46transferred directly to the shareholders who
- 16:49did pay attention, who exercised their rights
- 16:51and bought the discounted shares. Wow. A rights
- 16:54offering where you do nothing is quite literally
- 16:56a wealth transfer from the inattentive investor
- 16:59to the attentive investor. That is wild to think
- 17:02about. The lesson there is simple. Open your
- 17:05brokerage mail, folks. Treat corporate actions
- 17:07like actual cash, because they are. Truly. So
- 17:11we know rights offerings will show up loudly
- 17:13in our inbox. But what about warrants? There
- 17:15are all these hidden warrants out there, issued
- 17:17years ago, waiting in the shadows to dilute our
- 17:20shares. How do you as a retail investor spot
- 17:22these financial landmines before you decide to
- 17:24buy a stock? That brings us to our early warning
- 17:27system. You have to learn how to look past the
- 17:30headline numbers that the finance sites feed
- 17:32you. It's like reading the nutritional label
- 17:34on a box of snacks at the grocery store. If you
- 17:37just look at the bright marketing on the front
- 17:38of the box, it screams only 100 calories and
- 17:42low fat. It looks incredibly healthy. Right.
- 17:45But you have to physically turn the box around
- 17:47and read the tiny fine print on the back to realize
- 17:50it's packed with 30 grams of hidden sugar. You
- 17:53can't just trust the headline. That is the perfect
- 17:55framework for how you should approach corporate
- 17:57earnings reports. The front of the box number
- 18:00that everyone quotes on television and that most
- 18:02basic stock screeners display is basic EPS, basic
- 18:06earnings per share. OK, yeah. We all know the
- 18:08concept of EPS. You take the company's net income,
- 18:11their profit, and divide it by the number of
- 18:13shares. So if they made $18 million and they
- 18:16have 10 million shares, their basic EPS is $1
- 18:19.80. Clean, simple, and it looks great on the
- 18:23front of the box. But Basic EPS ignores the hidden
- 18:27shire. It only calculates the shares that actually
- 18:29exist today. It completely ignores the warrants,
- 18:32the convertible debt that can be swapped for
- 18:34equity, and all the unexercised options lurking
- 18:37off balance sheet. That is why, before you invest,
- 18:40you must look at the back of the box number.
- 18:43diluted EPS. How does the math change when we
- 18:47flip the box around to diluted EPS? Well, diluted
- 18:49EPS forces the company's accountants to answer
- 18:52a very uncomfortable worst case scenario question.
- 18:55Which is? What would our earnings per share look
- 18:57like if every single warrant, every single piece
- 19:00of convertible debt, and every single option
- 19:03that could legally become a share actually did
- 19:06become a share today? So it assumes maximum possible
- 19:09dilution has already happened. Exactly. It artificially
- 19:12inflates the share count in the denominator to
- 19:14show you the absolute worst -case scenario for
- 19:16your slice of the pie. Let's look at the numbers
- 19:18from the source material we pulled. That exact
- 19:20same company we just mentioned had a very healthy
- 19:23basic EPS of $1 .80. But when the accountants
- 19:27were forced to factor in all their outstanding
- 19:29warrants and convertibles, the theoretical share
- 19:32count jumped from 10 million all the way up to
- 19:3511 .5 million. Right. Suddenly, that profit is
- 19:38spread much thinner and the diluted EPS drops
- 19:41to $1 .57. That's a massive drop from 1 .80 down
- 19:46to 1 .57. That is nearly a 13 % gap between the
- 19:50headline number and the reality number. And that
- 19:5213 % gap is your early warning system. It is
- 19:55a massive flashing siren. If you see a wide delta
- 19:59between basic EPS and diluted EPS, the financial
- 20:02statements are screaming at you that there are
- 20:04substantial claims on this company's future cash
- 20:06flows that are not reflected in the current share
- 20:08account. So when you pull up a stock quote on
- 20:11a free finance app, and you see a P -E ratio,
- 20:14a price to earnings ratio, which earnings number
- 20:16do you think those algorithms are usually using?
- 20:19Let me guess. Basic EPS. Basic stock screeners
- 20:22and media coverage almost always default to using
- 20:24the basic EPS. Why? Because it makes the company
- 20:27look better. Of course it does. The earnings
- 20:29look higher, which makes the P -E ratio look
- 20:31cheaper, which attracts more investors. But for
- 20:34you, the individual investor trying to protect
- 20:37your capital, diluted EPS is the only honest
- 20:40version. Because those claims are real. Very
- 20:42real. Those claims, those warrants exist right
- 20:45now, whether the holders have pushed the exercise
- 20:47button yet or not. They are a permanent overhang.
- 20:50on the stock's potential to appreciate. The takeaway
- 20:53here is absolutely crucial. Never just blindly
- 20:56trust the headline PE ratio. Scroll down and
- 20:59check the diluted EPS. If the gap is wide, you
- 21:02know there are backdoor tickets just waiting
- 21:04to be printed the second the stock price goes
- 21:06up. It really is about knowing exactly what you're
- 21:08buying. When you purchase a share of stock, you're
- 21:11buying a percentage of that company's future
- 21:13cash flows. If the denominator, the share count,
- 21:16is structurally destined to grow faster than
- 21:18the actual cash flows, your investment is fighting
- 21:21a steep uphill battle from day one. OK, let's
- 21:24bring this all home and synthesize what we've
- 21:26unpacked today. We started with the dilution
- 21:28distinction. We established that exchange traded
- 21:31options are just contracts between you and me,
- 21:34peer to peer, fan to fan in the parking lot.
- 21:36Right. They transfer existing shares and they
- 21:39do absolutely nothing to dilute the company's
- 21:41overall share count. The company is not a party
- 21:44to the option contract, so no new shares are
- 21:46ever created. But rights and warrants are a totally
- 21:49different beast. They're issued directly by the
- 21:51company. When they're exercised, brand new shares
- 21:54are forced into existence. Yes. The share count
- 21:57goes up. The cash the company receives almost
- 21:59never covers the true market value of the equity
- 22:02they just gave away. And ultimately, your slice
- 22:05of the pie shrinks. Which is exactly why you
- 22:07have to take active steps to protect yourself.
- 22:10You protect yourself in two very practical ways.
- 22:12First, you actually open your brokerage mail.
- 22:14Please open your mail. Seriously, if you get
- 22:17a rights offering, you must either participate
- 22:20and buy the shares or sell the rights to someone
- 22:23else. If you throw the envelope in the trash
- 22:25and do nothing, you are mathematically guaranteed
- 22:28to lose money, literally handing your wealth
- 22:30over to the shareholders who are paying attention.
- 22:33And second, you use the early warning system
- 22:36before you ever buy a stock. You compare basic
- 22:39EPS to diluted EPS. A wide gap between those
- 22:43two numbers means there are warrants and convertible
- 22:45debt lurking in the shadows, just waiting for
- 22:48the right moment. to dilute your stake. It's
- 22:51honestly incredible how much complex plumbing
- 22:53happens behind the scenes of a simple stock purchase.
- 22:56We log into our apps and think we're just buying
- 22:58a piece of a business, but we're actually buying
- 23:00into a deeply complex web of competing claims
- 23:03and hidden contracts. It is a lot to process.
- 23:05And I actually want to leave you with one final
- 23:07slightly frustrating twist to mull over as you
- 23:10look at your portfolio. Oh, boy. What is it?
- 23:12Well, we just spent this entire deep dive establishing
- 23:14the absolute rule that options do not dilute
- 23:17you because the are traded between peers on an
- 23:20exchange. Right, the parking lot transaction.
- 23:23The fans trading tickets. But there is one massive
- 23:26glaring exception in the corporate world. Employee
- 23:29stock options. Oh, no. Wait, really? Oh, yes.
- 23:33When a company decides to compensate its executives,
- 23:35its engineers, and its workers with options,
- 23:38they aren't going to the open market and buying
- 23:40contracts from other traders to hand out. They're
- 23:42making them themselves. Exactly. The company
- 23:44is issuing those options directly to the employees.
- 23:48Which means, from an economic standpoint, employee
- 23:51stock options function exactly like warrants.
- 23:54So when an executive decides to exercise their
- 23:57options and clash out, the company is printing
- 23:59new shares. Brand new shares. And you, the retail
- 24:02shareholder who thought you were safe, are absolutely
- 24:05being diluted to pay for that compensation. That
- 24:08is wild. So the very next time you read a press
- 24:10release and hear that a tech company is heavily
- 24:13relying on options to retain talent, You have
- 24:16to ask yourself a critical question. What's the
- 24:18question? Are we talking about anonymous traders
- 24:20swapping contracts on a secondary exchange? Or
- 24:24are we talking about executives standing at the
- 24:26back door of the stadium printing thousands of
- 24:29new tickets to the concert? And just like that,
- 24:32the financial x -ray machine gets murky again.
- 24:35You thought you got a clean 10 % of the pie.
- 24:37But depending on who is holding the institutional
- 24:39warrants and who is holding the employee options,
- 24:42someone else holds a button that can quietly
- 24:44shave your slice down to nine. Exactly. Know
- 24:47the distinction between the instruments. Always
- 24:49read the diluted earnings numbers and whatever
- 24:51you do. Sorry, whatever you do, open your mail.