Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Markets, Snap, Credit, And Motorcycle Sharing (Podcast)

Transcript

Markets, Snap, Credit, And Motorcycle Sharing (Podcast) · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, let's check
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: in with Jim Lowell. He's a chief investment officer at
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Advisor Investments. Maybe we'll get his communing anecdote of the day.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: But Jim, what are you doing with this market? Here?
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: We've got nowhere to hide. Bond market, I got crushed,
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: equity markets. I'm near bear market territory. What are you
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: doing well? We're taking a discipline diversified course. We know
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: that bear markets are are not unusual, even though this
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: one feels unusual given the lack of volatility that we
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: saw in the market over the past several years. Um,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: we know that every downturn feels as if the current
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: conditions an inevitable outcome will be different. We don't think
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: they will be, but we do think we're in for
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: a protracted period of time where investors nerves will be tested,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: and they will need to stay focused on their long
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: term investment goals rather than the near term price disruptions,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: which of course are are alarming, made excessively so, not
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: just due to the return of volatility, but of course
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: due to the general geopolitical state of the world, which
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: feels as the things that become more unhinged than usual.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: You know, I'm looking up at uh Bloomberg surveillance on
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: on television right now, Jim. We have Bob Prince on.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: He's the co chief investment officer at Bridgewater UM, one
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: of the biggest hedge funds and not the biggest hedge
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: fund in the country. He says that this inflation is
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: like the seventies. Again, he says, the US has headed
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: towards a stagflation the likes of which we haven't seen
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: since the nineteen seventies. And there was there was a
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: while when, UM, you know, big investors, UM, super rich guys,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: we're saying this is nothing like the seventies. But now
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: it seems to be the common the consensus. Do you agree, No,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: I don't agree, and I certainly hope that that he
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: isn't right, because that grinding bear market of nineteen seventy
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: four through night three was profoundly difficult for anyone who
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: was who anyone who is an investor, are they a
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: professional or individual? I would say that I take some
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: measure of comfort in the fact that the vast majority
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: of hedge funds don't seem to deliver on what their
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: mandate is. Maybe this time will be different for them.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: It's the perfect environment for those who have skill sets
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: that enable them to short the market UM, but those
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: skill sets usually are found wanting in terms of the
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: return that they deliver. I do think that we're in
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: for a protracted period of inflationary pressure UM, you know, ironic,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: We of course set against the potential for some kind
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: of recession, whether it's a technical recession of two negative
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: quarters of GDP or just an existential recession where businesses
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: and consumers stop spending enough to trigger UM, to trigger
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: the kind of recessionary environment where it becomes even more
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: difficult to maneuver. I take some measure of comfort in
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: the fact that while the first quarter obviously was the
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: worst quarter for bonds in fifty years of bond buffers
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: did not hold ever since then, they've been behaving relatively
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: reasonably in terms of on down days, giving us that
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: defensiveness that we we aim to achieve from them in
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: our portfolios, and on updates, letting the market run where
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: it runs on the equity side. So I think we're
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: getting to a more defensible position in terms of asset allocation,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: but we're not out of the woods yet. I think
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: we've got considerable downward pressure to have to be able
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: to manage through it all right, Jim, thanks so much
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: for checking in with us. We appreciate that. Jim Lowell,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: chief investment officer for Advisor Investments. Again, a sell off
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: in the marketplace today, uh and the equities led by
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: nastac off three and a half percent. Again some tough
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: economic data, as Greg was pointing out, also snapped down
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: on some cautious outlook, bringing all the other social media
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: names down with I'm looking at Alphabet here down eight
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: percent as well. So we want to talk tech. I
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: want to kind of bring it out a little bit
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: and and not just focus on Snap but really on
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: the whole tech space here and what we're seeing out there.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: A lot of carnage. Dan i'ves Managing director and senior
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: equity analyst, and web Bush Securities has had a very
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: constructive view on a tech space for a long time,
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: has been right. Then as we step back here, let's
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: step back a little bit just from Snap and we
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: we can talk about Snap and what the um Mr
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Spiegel's comments mean for the space, But how are you
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: looking at tech here and what we're seeing in the
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: in the pullback in these names. Look, I think it's
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: just indiscriminate selling regardless of where the companies play enterprise,
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: cyber cloud, consumer, ad tech, And I think what we're
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: just seeing is just a massive risk off regardless of prise.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: And it looks when when tech sells off on a
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Snap warning that's been one of the more little quality
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: tech companies last decade, it just shows just how white
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: knuckle this is. But of course it makes sense if
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: you're in the business that relies on advertising revenue and
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: advertisers no longer paying for UM your services. Is this
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: are the broader implications clear to you? Or do you
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: does it still feel like a Snap um specific problem? Look,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: I mean Snap they bleamed everything except the wind, you know,
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: in terms of their their warning, and I think it
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: just comes down to one d The point clearly we're
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: seeing softness and then that's and that's something that's already
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: beaten too. These stocks, I mean a lot of these
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: names right now are baking in a mild to modest
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: recession already. You know, our point is you want to
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: stay away from the consumer ad plays, but you want
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: to be more focused on enterprise because enterprise is what
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: we believe is holding up strong, and that's going to
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: be a popular strength, you know, during this market storm.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: But overall, I believe tech is way oversold relative to
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: what I believe would be a mild recession, where in
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: streets baking. And much worse all right now is that
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: as you know, is off from it's high. So I mean,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: how do let's start with maybe just the biggest name
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: that I know you cover Dan and a lot of
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: folks own in their portfolio, which is Apple. How do
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: you think about that kind of a name. Look, I mean,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: we just did checks last week, and if you look
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: in the supply chain in China, you know, Regard, we
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: won't see a zero COVID in China. It's tracking slightly
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: better than expectations so far, and I think it just
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: shows that pockets of demand across the boarder are holding
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: up better than expected. And I think Apple is a
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: good example one where the valuation here is basically discounting
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: thirty You know of of demand that goes away, which
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: we disagree with, and that's why I think you have
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: to separate. You can't treat every company equally. I think
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: you look at names like Apple, Microsoft, the cloud theme
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: in terms of ways to play Google as well as
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Amazon cybersecurity, and I think that's we are going to
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: see just more of a have and have not in
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: tech And I think this is just a perfect example.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: It's playing out. But again, good news is going to
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: be perceived as bad news. Bad news is gonna be
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: perceived as worse news. That's just a cycle that we're
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: in right now. If we look at your universe of coverage, Dan,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: you know, not just Tesla and Apple, but also I
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: guess Um, Palo Alto, Ziff Davis, rivan Um, some of
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: the names seemed like they would be very poorly affected
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: by worsening relationships with China. Others wouldn't be affected. How
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: do you see, um, your universe of stocks. If US
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: China relationships get worse, look, I think that's the black Swan.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Then right, and and of course even we've seen this
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: week there's just worries about tensions there as well as
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Taiwan and look at China. That continues to right now
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: be the dark cloud over attack, especially when it comes
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: to Apple, when it comes to Tessa, the supply chain,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: which is really key across the board in terms of chips.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: But that's also why believe when it comes to software,
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: whether it's cloud, whether it's cyber security, those are much
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: more insulated. And I think more and more we're gonna
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: see these enterprise names that are going to continue to outperform.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: You know is right now, there's just worries about what's
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: going on. I think snapped send flamers because of also
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: the niature of just missing four weeks after they give
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: guidance to basically just takeaway guidance, say it's the disaster
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: and give minimal reasoning around that. I mean that, I
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: think that's really what scared investments here. You know that
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: you mentioned you know cybersecurity clouds too. Of the areas
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: the stronger areas within the whole text substack. Uh Dan,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: what are those companies saying about maybe customer demand? Is
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: there anything that a recession fears are coming through and
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: maybe their order books at all looks so far we
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: haven't seen it. I mean, you've seen some cracks in
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: terms of slower hiring, and I think you'll see sales
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: for US next week. Talk about strength overall Europe. Weakness
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: has been spotty in terms of what we've seen, and
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: that's why I Apoloy just keeps coming down to right
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: now beat into these stocks. Are street numbers coming down
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: by in two three. So if it's anything between a
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: soft landing, even just a slight to modest recession, then
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: than stocks today Texas especially a way over sold here.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: And that's why we're just right now in this scenario
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: spray char analysis just given what we've called, you know,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Rubric's Q macro and any bad news is just going
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: to get new exacerbated. That's what we're seeing today. Any
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: concern about the housing market, Dannemy, We've seen really bad
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: numbers today in new home sales, and I'm starting to
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: hear more and more people say this this could turn
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: quickly and be maybe the gray Swan that people had
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: had difficulty spotting. Well, I I view it. I mean
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: there's differently in a view, but I view it that
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: that also takes some of the said's job. It already
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: takes care of it, right, That would ultimately be less
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: interest rate hikes that you'll see down the road. After
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: fifty and fifty you're gonna see a fro off come
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: at the market whoeverages come out of the system. But
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: that's why I do not view this as a dot
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: com bubble burst Todd Oh. I don't look at OH
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: eight or nine see any comparisons. I just view as
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: a massive overcraction risk who's coming out of the system.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: But again, in the news cycle that we're in with
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: what we're seeing horrific in Ukraine as well as zero
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: COVID in China, you're just seeing investadors, regardless of price,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: get out of risk assets. All right, Dan, Good, good
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: overview there from your perspective. We always appreciate getting the
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: big tech call there, Dan, i'ves managing director and senior
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: equity analysts at web Bush Securities and again calling out
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: some of the stronger areas from Dan's perspective in the
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: tech stack, call it the cloud, which is certainly a
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: big growth there we've heard about for many years, as
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: well as cybersecurity as two of maybe the stronger areas
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: within the tech spend that he thinks will fare better,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: and they certainly are on the way down here in
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: terms of relative underperformance, but also on the turn as well.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: I get about literally two pitches from PR like flax
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: every day. Mostly don't ever open even open the emails.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: I got one though, um from Lisa Peterson saying like, hey, dude,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: I hear you're into bikes. If you want to go
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: to any city and rent a bike, that's a difficult
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: thing to do. Easy with cars part of motorcycles, She says,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: I have a solution for you. It's called Rider's Share,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: And so she pitched me them one of the co
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: founders and the ceomore, Guillermo Cornejo, to come on and
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: talk about his business, which I just think is absolutely fascinating.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: We got him now on the line. Guiermo, thanks so
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: much for joining us. Um, I'm dreaming big for this company,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: but you guys are just getting started. Tell us about
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: how you got the idea and how you're executing on it.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Thank you. Right there, Share right there's share dot Com
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: started four years ago because I could not afford to
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: buy a motorcycle, and I really wanted to write one,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: but renting was even more expensive than owning. So I
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: was like, it's time to you know, bring a peer
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: to peer into motorcycle rentals. And so how has that
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: worked out? I noticed that I just did a quick
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: search around, um where I live in Westchester, and I
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: can get everything from a Vespa for like thirty dollars
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: a day to yeah, Harley like Street Clyde for a
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty which or actually I think I saw
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Harley Fat Boy for like ninety bucks, which is a
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: great price. There's a big differentiation in price, but there's
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: a lot of supply out there just going peer to peer. UM,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: I feel like there's more growth though, Guillermo, you could
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: get rental uh companies, dealerships involved, you could go international,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: get out of the US. I mean, what what what
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: are your plans for the company right now? Our main
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: focus is to continue to grow that supply. UM, we
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: have thousands of motorcycles, but we have an appen men
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: to support dozens of thousands of motorcycles and just and
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: for the people that don't know, UM, we don't own
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: any of the motorcycles. We use the airbnb model basically,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: but You've got insurance set up right, correct. We provide
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: insurance and road and assistance. We've met the writers, you know.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: We we basically the risk the transaction as much as possible. Gamma.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of the company Harley Davidson. Ever
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: since it kind of came public. I always followed the
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: quarterly results, and I know one of the challenges for
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: them is getting younger people into the motorcycle. UM Activity
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: talk to us how you view that side of the business,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: the demand side, the total market size. When I work
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: in the auto industry, we saw that millennials actually love
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: buying cars when they kind of afford it. So that's
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: kind of what riders shared asked. We make writing a
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: motorcycle more accessible, so the media and age of our
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: user is in the midferities. We're looking to partner with
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: O E. M S to get more you know, more
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: butts on seats. Yes, UM, you should definitely hook up
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: with Harley Davidson. One of the cool things about that company,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: and I'm obviously a huge Ducati fan myself as well. Course,
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: UM both of them are going electric. Harley is already there.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Ducatti is building the electric bikes for UM Moto g
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: P does this? Do you think this is a big
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: game changer because there's a lot of kids out there
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: who don't like extremely loud uh you know, fat bobs
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: with straight pipes. I happen to love that that sound, Harley,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: you know the classic potato potato potato. It's so loud
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: and offensive, which is why I like it. But the kids,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: you know, are different. Um, do you think switching to
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: electric is going to be a big difference for the
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: whole motorcycle industry? Gammo? They're easier to ride because young
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: kids don't know how to ship gears. Oh true, you
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: don't have to worry about you don't have to worry
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: on maintenance as much. But electric motorcycles aren't there yet.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: None of them has the ranch that at Tesla has,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: so I think we're still I mean, the technology is there,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: somebody has needs to come up with a design that
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: has very low drag and very long range. Well, and
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: they're expensive, right, I mean one of the things you
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: enable people to do is to dip a toe in
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: the water and see if they like it. Absolutely. And
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: because like the motorcycles have very low maintenance cost, we
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: we can make their rental sit even more affordable by
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: using three bags. You know, I'm very interested. I've told
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: you Matt and getting a vespa in my middle age,
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: and maybe I can try it out through this thing
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: you can't. In fact, there's a bunch of vespers I
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: saw in New Jersey near you. Um, it looks like
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: one guy who has just a whole garage full of scooters. Garmo, great,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: great talking to you, UM, and we wish you the best,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Lucky Armore Cornejo there co founder and CEO of riders
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: Share UM. And if you are interested in checking out
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: a motorcycle or a scooter or anywhere around the country,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: UM America that is, you can go ahead and check
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: it out. And Paul I recommend to you to try
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: because for me, UM, my first ride on a Vestpo
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: was a life changing event and I think it's still
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: the most fun way to get around cities is riding
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: a Vestpo or any kind of scooter. So I think
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: I might have to do scooting around the summit, New Jersey.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: That was good stuff. Jason Greenblatt, he's a senior portfolio
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: manager at American Century Investments, And I want to talk
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: fixed income, obviously with with you Jason, Um, but I
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: want to start it out from the perspective of the consumer,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: because we just heard Brian moynihan on Bloomberg Surveillance saying
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: that the idea that UM Americans have spent their stimmies
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: already is the wrong idea. The idea that the consumer
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: is in a difficult place right now, at least from
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: his vantage point as running one of the biggest credit
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: card operations in the country, is just wrong. Um, what
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: do you think about the consumer, especially given the inflation
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: that we're seeing in concerns, little cracks that we're seeing
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: in markets like housing. Good morning, Thanks for having me on. Yeah,
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: I think the consumer topic is is certainly uh topical today.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Whether you mentioned Brian moynihan with Bank of America today,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: for Jamie Diamond and JP Morgan yesterday talking about the
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: strength of the consumer. We we agree. We think that
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: you know, consumers in great shape today. However, what's the
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: question for tomorrow? And we think that we're starting to
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: see cracks. You know, we mentioned Abercrombie and Fitch, we
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: had Target and Walmart, and the shift in consumer spending,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: this change from goods two services is certainly having an
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: impact and inflation is front and center. Rising rates, higher
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: costs passed through of costs that we saw in the
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: first quarter is starting away on consumer demand, and we
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: think that the consumer may be in trouble in the
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: second half of this year. And where does that hit
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: In fixed income we were just talking about out UM,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: you know, high yield problems crack starting to show, so
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: does it make its way down to investment grade? Investment
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: grade is is certainly taking a licking year to date,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: right between rising treasury prices, rising treasury yields, I'm sorry,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: and also credit spreads widening, But we could also say
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: that yields are more normalized at this point at four
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: and a half percent. Where it starts to to impact
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: UM credit particularly is is valuations on the equity side
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: become cheaper, so do M and A potentials and leveraging
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: A balance sheets. So we're very worried about what could
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: be coming down the pipe in terms of new supply
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: of debt to to either buy back shares and or
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: buy companies from from company A to company B, whether
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: that's private equity or from financial buyers. You know in
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: the UM, you know space of company A buying up
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: here you know, Uh, Jason, I just punched an I
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: N go to get the Bloomberg Index browser, and I
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: see the total return for US corporate bonds off negative
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: thirteen point three six percent year to date. So you are,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: at American Century, a member of the Global Fixed Income
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: Investment Committee, which sets investment outlooks for the global fixed
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: income group. Holy cow, what do you tell your teams?
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: What do your teams tell you after a minus first
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: four and a half months of the year. Yeah, it's
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: just a fair point there. Um. Certainly growth is slowing. Um,
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: the FED is trying to combat inflation, and you know,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: as early as two plus weeks ago we had Chairman
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Powell saying they will do what it takes to bring
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: inflation down to two. Now we're starting to hear some
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: some rumblings of perhaps will will pause in September. We
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: had Bostick out yesterday talking about September is is maybe
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: a point where we'll wait and see on the data
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: as far as the outlook goes. You know, I know
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: recession is certainly on a lot of people's minds. It's
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: certainly a discussion point for US internally. Um, that's not
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: our base case at the moment, I would say we're
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: more in the stagflation camp, where we think inflation will
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: remain stubbornly high. It may come off of eight and
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: a half percent, but it will remain high. And then
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: you have a consumer having this negative wealth effect, and
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: so we think growth is slowing. It's gonna it's gonna
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: slow dramatically in our minds in the second half of
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: this year. So UM, I wonder what what you're telling then, investors?
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, you have what two billion in assets under management. UM.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: You've seen obviously market pullbacks of the past, but they're
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: different from this, right, this is UH fiscal a monetary
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: stimulus driven UM issue. How to investors in fixed income
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: deal with that? Sure? UM, you know, for sure taking
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: on higher quality, more liquid risk to us makes sense,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: particularly in the front end. We think that credit spreads
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: and rates have repriced enough where you can start to
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: dip your toes in and and earn carry to help
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: protect you in the event that rates do rise further. UM.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: The other area where we've really been focused on our
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: story bonds bonds that have a catalyst, for example, rising
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: stars UM bonds that perhaps you know are a bit
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: more UM immune to this rising rate environment. Um, you
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: know that would be non cyclical sectors, So we think
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: there's reason for the point defense here. But there are
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: opportunities and dislocations that we see that can benefit our
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: client's portfolios. So in the corporate sector, are there sectors
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: that you guys like at the moment um? You know,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: some people suggested, you know, healthcare or you know some
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: of the real tried and true areas of technology, whether
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: maybe some exposures to the cloud or cybersecurity, and think
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: things like that. How do you guys think about the
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: corporate space? Shut high quality, single A and and better
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: offers what's perceived to be safe spread. The challenge with
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: that though is M and A and we think that
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: you know, as valuations, asn't mentioned before, become cheaper, particularly
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: in equities, companies will be more prone to to level
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: up and perhaps um issue additional debt at concessions and
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: hurt us as bond holders. We prefer to be buying
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: these companies after the downgrade, after the event takes place,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: and we think we can get them at cheaper levels.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: So we're we're really not favorable on on healthcare and
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: tech from an event risk perspective, and in fact we're
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: underweight in those two sectors. What we like at the
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: moment is high quality, highly liquid front end on We
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: think that those offer value here and they also insulate
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: us a bit from event risk. And I'm talking more
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: particularly in front end banks that don't have this type
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: of event risk, and we'll benefit from a rising rate environment.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: By the way, before you ran investment grade credit at
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Aberdeen and distressed dead at RBS, you went to Penn State. Dan,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: I've happy as well, happy value. Is it beaver Stadium?
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Is there any chance, uh, you know, this year looking
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: forward to for example, when you when you get to
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: play the Ohio State buck Eyes, is it going to
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: be super depressing? Is there any reason to believe in
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: Penn State? We we support them in thick and thin,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: for sure. The Nitney lines always come out and leave
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: their heart on the fields. And yeah they lost a
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: lot of players last season, but we'll we'll still support
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: them and think that the rising stars will all right.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Good stuff, Big fan to Jason Green, the senior portfolio
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: manager American Century Investments. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews with
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Apple podcasts, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller.
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three. Put on fall
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio