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Construcción Plural - Programa 1120 · Construcción Plural - Radio Trend Topic

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Plural construction, the renowned journalistic program of political analysis and current in its twentieth
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season, with the leadership of Fernando Mauri and a team of prestigious analysts.
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Listen to him on radio train topic. Believe me if I understood correctly with
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the meetings of the rates at the rates gudañana all the moca. People run
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out of money buying us. Now Drane Bacdad told you, although you look
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like an economic commentator, you see that you understand the minister. That one
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thing people are drier than country cookie. Not only can he not buy dollars,
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but he can buy us morfe and he can buy us remedy. You
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can' t buy pastia, you can' t buy pints, you can
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' t comb, you can' t comb anything. It' s small
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details. So many told me while giving me a wafer that said I don
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' t have stereo. It' s a small detail of home microeconomics.
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What do we care about in macroeconomics? Believe me, we' re going
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to change the poor country' s face for a short time They' re
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going to disfigure it more. He' s not a bastard yet. The
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only thing we ask for is a small effort today so that tomorrow we can
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have in Argentina tomorrow the power with which our elders dreamed, of course trying,
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but a small sacrifice today so that ro son, a small sacrifice today
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so that our records have tomorrow inherit a large country round, pertin warm,
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tran Minister, listen to me since I was little who I have heard that
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we have to sacrifice nothing of the future. The national motto has always been
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to fuck yourself today to enjoy tomorrow and each other. But the future,
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by decision, is punctuated how it is, my friends, very but well,
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a few afternoons, four o' clock, four and one, starting
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this last plural construction of the week and passed Cristina as if and I passed
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resigned ChachoÁlvarez, pazo ruca o paso dual de paso, yes ol and
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I forget any, then yes, Víctor Martínez el tu during the program with
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the phonsino. But, today we are with the new attention on the verge
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of the institutional crisis, although the spokesman adorns and the denial fights unsuccessfully between
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President Ibisi. There' s the Senate session. We get an ocur as
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planned mid- morning and as previously the Senate is also going to reject,
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we have just rejected an attempt by the ruling party to post the debate.
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The treatment probably continues over the night. It will vote a majority endorsed or
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salty by the fart, also by some provincial ovens, corresponding constructors and part
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of the radioclismo, a political coup to the Government in the sense of lowering
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Este de nuu. Obviously, you know how to create this height, which
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also has thanks to a modification of the Gran Cristina Fernández, that is to
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be turned by the deputy, if that is more complicated to be left aside
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East of neu seventy bar twenty- three than some, among them our attorney
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- in- chief, Dr Keeper, our specialist of judicial matter qualifies to
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inconstitute. Let' s analyze the scenario a little bit quickly on the smith.
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Let' s listen to the audio of Camillo Te Cornea' s economic
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program. Now we have a little more, a little less than twenty minutes
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to enjoy Gustavo Ferrari Pazonson. What' s waiting for us on lines,
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good afternoon. How' s the good afternoon going, Fernando. I'
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m gonna start with something different. Someone saved my ass last night greeted me
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so good at football exactly countries, the country is on fire and I'
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m talking about football. Look I' m going to talk about things that
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obviously seem to interest the citizenry. Not because they were all waiting if Mr
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De Mitchelli passed the front or cluttered. But as that same may happen in
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this crisis between the President and his Vice- President. Argentina' s history,
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evidently, has made us that except for Victor Martinez, who I think
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didn' t happen, and Carlos Perete, the others always had close and
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round. But when you live in Mexico, where you live, there is
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no Vice President. No, there' s no Vice President, I'
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m trying to power this. Yes, that' s why I am,
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but I' m going to do it with these everyday issues. I'
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m going deeper. I would like to rescue a theme from what we have
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talked about many times, but now it is really at the point of launching,
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which is the rosary theme and the Presence. Today we practically say security
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response, almost intervening that city and trying to put in order something that really
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got out of everything Matis and from every situation. My question is the following,
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I would like to begin with this analysis an army that in the last
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twenty years has been dismantled for different reasons, that security forces do not come
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here, especially now it appears in the province of Santa Fe that are at
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the colluding hand of all the violence or organized crime that is happening. That
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is, with which security forces we are going to face this situation that is
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being presented today in Rosario. When they say we don' t have bullets
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for three hours of a conflict, then we go back, I say to
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the analysis that many times we did it, so far as our institutions in
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a wire- tied country can respond to the urgent need to intervene to solve
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a problem and if they are prepared. That' s when you, at
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a friend' s meeting, tell him how good it is if we leave
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in half an hour Mar del Plata and he' s going to start.
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I don' t have covers, I have to change covers. It doesn
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' t tell you car service, etcetera. This is similar. I am
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talking about the army, as I can talk about any of the institutions of
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the Republic at the moment we need them to go out on the streets to
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face an institutional problem. They are not prepared and I think it will be
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the big dilemma at that time that will happen to the Security Minister to make
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decisions about a force that doesn' t even practically know how it works.
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Today, drug trafficking, organized crime, the characteristics of the networks they have.
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And the second point and those same forces, having the experience they had
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forty years ago, will feel or not institutionally supported to act, but to
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be condemned again for excesses. It is the question that I have perhaps tried
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to ask myself and to talk about it beyond the dollar, the situation,
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the neu conflict At this moment in Argentina there is a worrying fact. There
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are repectronarcos in which the Minister of Justice has just worked for drug lords.
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I explain a defense attorney. Any advocacy work can defend the world' s
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worst rapist or drug lord. What happens is that, after occupying a political
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position, it makes quite a lot of noise. Not good, there we
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are. There was the famous conciliel and let' s say mafia, or
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I always take it as a reference. Let' s see the godfather again
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and everything was fine until the narcotics business began, as it was called at
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the time. When he wants to retire from business, where he says well,
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yes, justice gives impunity, buying political judges and prostitution, yes to
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gambling, but not to narcotics. There' s a famous Barlon Brando phrase
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in that' s when there' s the whole war and that' s
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what' s going on now. I mean, we' re operating with
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total impunity from jail, because the point is not that they' re loose.
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That doesn' t need to be loose to give an order and apparently
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these collets of these last few days have been precisely revenge, before they'
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ve taken their cell phones, etcetera, etcetera. Now the question is how
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far, as a government, you can tighten that whole situation and how far
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you have popular support to do it. Human rights groups, et cetera.
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In other words, the phenomenon of shipade is Salvador, because he shows it,
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because it is a form of how much popular theons one. How does
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one think today that popular backing is clearly looked at. Popular backing is clearly
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as long as you are affected. In other words, in this case popular
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support begins to react when people can no longer walk through rosaries has been saved.
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This is not something that has now begun popular support for combat. I
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say to the measures, to the small letter, to the armed forces.
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So, at least it' s something else. I say popular support for
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you to cut each other down on the situation now. Indeed, as you
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said, in general, the security forces are not prepared to fight the narco,
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etcetera. But the endorsement in poor terms. No, but this is
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how you tell me. In other words, there is that popular p-
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back for interaction or interaction. I don' t know, because we'
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re back to the same subject. You want a cultural channel. Yes,
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it' s necessary. He sets it up. If no one sees it,
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then there' s popular backing. You tell me, let' s
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say very vehemently. Yes, there really is, that is, when you
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' re really going to have to go out to operate to see actions of
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a lot of violence, because a lot of caching violence is going to happen.
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Not then will it really stop hand in hand how groups are going to
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act in front of human rights. We already know how that' s going
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to be handled politically. So, now there' s legal backing for that
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act. Let us say that the loved forces within the internal security process are
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fully clarified. I don' t know. These are questions I ask myself,
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I' m not giving you affirmations. Yeah, yeah, good,
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but I mean, I don' t know all of a sudden, even
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if I say I' m going to declare war. I don' t
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know if it' s a strong word. I' m not going to
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establish control, because when you' re going to talk about war, then
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listen. I see it. It' s something I' m telling you
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about for a sort of daily exercise of what' s going on in this
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country. Or you look at criminal groups with armored carlos stronger than the security
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forces themselves. Then that' s where I really start to think. We
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are prepared today to face this, because it is the second war, that
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is, the second war, in the face of some economic situation dedicated to
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acceptance. Well, we have the theme of Rosario port river traffic starting from
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the triple border, but tomorrow you have it in the slaughter and in all
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this urban cone Bonaerense, which is also historically a possibility to stand out.
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No yes, it is total and it is an issue that politicians generally occupy
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spasmodically. I remember the last time now it came back that many rose tree
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talk was that you remember when they shot a commercial place that we assumed was
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Messi' s wife from Messi' s wife' s family you remember?
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Six months ago there was a new Rosario. Once again the politicians in the
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security force, which you can beat that Fernando Forgiveness is a bit of a
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voice for you. Well I say, the last time they all act spasmodically
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of politics the media was when they danced a local Messi te Cordas family in
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Rosario exactly. Yeah, yeah, like everyone else noticed. That' s
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why I tell you, okay there' s a war. It' s
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a hard word experience. Well Calderón declared the war openly and it is not
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only with our own extermination, but on which side it means to destroy and
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at the same time, evidently, to try to establish the social policy of
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prevention to which those who retista do not, because there comes a time that
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this situation occurs in a sort of even would say aspirational effect. Not to
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speak the soldiers, nie talk earns a lot of money by executing whatever person
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is barking, obviously exactly and even that that doesn' t start colluding,
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as has also happened here in that country, to the security forces themselves.
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No, well, I' m sorry, you' re just saying something.
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Colleagues who drive information and gerras said when. You' ve seen lately
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that some cop is already injured, like you have to put yourself in the
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spot between extortion, between threat and collusion with the security forts. Upstairs.
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Today let' s say the police don' t fight, they don'
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t face, not at least rosary. There' s nothing wrong with him.
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Okay. That' s because, besides, what guarantee do you give
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that same polde here? Yeah, on the contrary, paying him, he
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ends up being, say, victims and you' re destroying a family without
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any kind of altarpiece. Totally. Then I get the gill. I'
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m not saying that I' m colluding, that I' m an accomplice
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or a mule, but well I give myself the fat visa not to be
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Mira On the other hand, if I send you a photo this day look
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there was one that once was pointed out to me by a secretary of defense
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here where I was told the barracks have suddenly become parking lots of Mercedes bel
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I tell you what that is like and especially in the provinces, in certain
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regiments or military units. They told you you' re going to get sick
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tomorrow. No. If I' m in good health no, I'
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m not going to get sick bath and I won' t be able to
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go to work with what that generated gor is that that good day I lowered
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the plane, distributed what I had to distribute went out and to cure him
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that disease appeared in the house about three times to say. I mean,
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the issue is back to the fact not that, when I say we are
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prepared, as they were disarmed to face this is not only on the issue
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of mbrutar, but also on the issue of impunity, which means above all
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a totally devastated force with totally impoverished wages. You' re not sending him
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to a showdown. In exchange for what, sir and in my space,
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have control of a city that is not very extensive, because we have a
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lot of temples left and in Mexico and because whenever you talk about Colombia and
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also in Mexico, that speaks throughout the state, like the situation today.
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Let' s say well, today, we have to remember that we have
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also spoken about it that this government of Andrés Manuel has tried to exercise a
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policy not of combat, but rather using his own words of reconciliation and of
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attacking the effects that they have generated. Let' s say, people'
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s entry into organized crime, problems where it' s called poverty structurals,
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etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. So his policy was hugging, not
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shooting. That is, while we create a policy of containment in the social
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aspects. On the other hand, this is established as actions where, in
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this case, the drug trafficker or the hit man was a victim of the
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system and, as a victim of trafficking systems, of their dealings, of
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reconverting the entire social structure so that he does not fall into the networks and
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has other ways how he does not look. It has been a demagogic action
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this six- year period, because here you know very well taken in the
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periods as small, it already has one hundred and forty zero dead as a
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result of organized crime violence. And so far as the campaigns have been going
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since January, which will now be for the June elections this year, there
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are already eighteen aspiring candidates killed for organized crime for not sharing. Let'
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s say his excuses. Result few forgiveness, results few then Pokémon. Results
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are little, results, not a little. You' re talking like we
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were talking the other day. From a fifth- year fall. If you
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say well, you are already or are arguing, let' s say a
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failed policy, including a certain complocity of impunity, where there have been no
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major attacks and that each has maintained its spaces of power, such and that
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also gives rise to the denunciations of the Americans, for example, fundamentally and
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the cooking or creation of new drugs, in this case the strongest, the
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centanil, which is the féc that affects today the American market, that to
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the biggest garbage to the Paco, the mezcs with things even stronger, is
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directly the last. Well, well, well, friend, by then I
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don' t say what really that is worry, not because you say good,
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except that they are in this sort of relationship. The President may be
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asking for combat advice, not I think, but you' re also going
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to pero without a ringer. Basically if you like, then for the next
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one. Some are a hug, big hug, like for the bag.
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They are here in plural construction. I' m going to look for Valentinas
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and the College, as well as the one that forms in ten minutes of
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closure. We meet here Tuesday commenting on the weeks. We have that everything
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is the pair sung today, that the Senate is going to turn half,
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you need everything, but that will happen for the position he of seventy-
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twenty our disspective concentrate. We also give the Tofornia. We' re going
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to thank you for the co- production. Well, they' re on
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the coast and so on. I remember here Tuesday I' m Camilo Tiscornia
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to analyze the economic scenario. Well, we just got to know the February
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inflation data, which was thirteen two and which was far smaller than expected.
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The data goes down twelve three, when one takes what is called core inflation
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that in the month of January had been around twenty percent, with which the
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reality is that some decrease was consolidated regarding what were the values of the month
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of December, which had been very high. And what we are seeing in
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the seite consultant for the month of March is that, in some areas in
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that moderation it would continue, perhaps not with the same intensity, but it
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probably continues in several items of mass consumption, including food, at least for
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now, while surely we will continue to see mainly in capital strong increases in
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regulated prices that are still far behind, so the previous government had not sincere,
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with which we will surely see a phenomenon that would also be in February,
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which is a great regional dispersion in inflation, because inflation moved between ten
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coma three in the northeast region and fifteen in the capital and GEBAA region.
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That is, that some of this we will surely see in March and probably
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see in several months still more, with which we tentatively think that in the
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region of Gebaa, which is where we measure, the inflation of March,
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could be around 14 percent. We will finally have to see when simply the
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increase in gas is a relevant increase that is still going around and see how
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the evolution, obviously of the exchange rate and the prices more linked to the
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exchange rate, continues, but with almost half a month in, probably the
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cleaning is around that in our measurement. This leads a little to the more
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general assessment of this economic stop after three months of government, of my law
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and there, obviously there is a whole data crossing, there is everything to
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analyze certainly that not in all the dimensions that one wants to choose, the
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results will be the same, especially in the financial part. It is where
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there is some improvement, more or less sensitive, especially in terms of the
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accumulation of reserves. For example, the Central Bank managed to greatly increase its
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reserves to the point that, according to the measurement one takes, they are
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today between zero or five zero million dollars in negative terms, which is a
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substantial improvement over the negative twelve zero n that there was when it assumed my
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law. There is some recovery within the fixed time frame that had been at
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some point heavily punished. There is some recovery in credit as well and there
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is moderation in evaluation expectations. I think they' re all positive things.
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Obviously for each of these things one can find explanations. What makes you think
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how sustainable things are and this is a little what is in question today,
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when you analyze the evolution of indicators like these or even the decline in inflation,
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which are in principle positive, but doubts arise about their sustainability. Obviously,
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when you move on to other dimensions, the results are more complicated,
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such as economic activity. There the results are definitely bad, and what has
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to do with the real salary. There is also a good fiscal dynamic,
24:56
in the sense that the Government has been holding back the fiscal result has reversed
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it strongly from the level at which it had started. And obviously, here
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too there are doubts as to whether this can be sustainable or not. The
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truth is that the reversal that resulted is very important. Obviously, there are
25:15
extraordinary average factors ahead of payments, sectors that have been frozen and are likely
25:22
to have to increase. But the brake on the tax side, which I
25:25
obviously believe has put the discussion at a very different point from the one before,
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is still relevant. Obviously, it starts from a point where the discussion
25:37
about fiscal solvency has to be at the center and I think this is in
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itself positive. The question, in any case, is how sustainable all this
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will be if Argentina will finally be able to generate a virtuous process and finish
25:56
winning the war against inflation. In this sense, it seemed to me that
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I actually shared the result of a study we did with several economists, reading
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several articles about cases of stabilization plans that have already been many in economic history
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and some conclusions are interesting so that we can anticipate where we can go.
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As a summary of this analysis we had done, we have found the following
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conditions. The plan to be preceded or started with a fiscal adjustment. Even
26:29
some suggest financial balance of entry situation which is what the current Government is trying
26:33
to achieve. In the successful stabilization plans there was also the implementation of the
26:41
independence of the Central Bank, In addition, fundamentally, the prohibition of monetary
26:45
financing and the fiscal deficit. These things have been in virtually every plan.
26:52
There are plans that used the exchange rate and others that used monetary aggregates to
26:56
domesticate and then control inflation, which is called the neo clanominal one of the
27:00
economy. But the use of the exchange rate requires a lot of credibility.
27:03
Consolidated the stabilization plan, many countries evolved a regime of inflation targets, such
27:07
as the one that was attempted in Argentina at the time of MACRIP, but
27:11
this was later. In some cases, price and wage controls and agreements were
27:15
used to curb inflationary inertia, but it was not widespread and in many cases
27:21
it was necessary to eliminate distortions created by previous heterodox plans. When you read
27:26
or take into account these points I just mentioned, the reality is that what
27:32
the Government is doing falls well within the experience of stabilization plans, a fundamental
27:37
focus on fiscal matters. Much is questioned about the lack of a heterodox component
27:44
that has been present in other plans to cut precisely with inflationary lines. Well,
27:51
this is a leg that' s missing at the moment, or some
27:53
people think they see it appear. When the Minister of Economy talks about putting
27:57
limits on the time negotiations or these kinds of conversations with food- producing companies,
28:03
we will see if this is formalized in any way or not. In
28:08
any case, the Government has given a signal by trying to advance food imports
28:12
as a way to contain inflation in these areas. Definitely, at some point
28:21
the opening of the economy will have to be clearer as a way to contain
28:26
inflation This is an aspect that has been in many stabilization plans and that Argentina
28:30
needs not only to contain inflation, but to be able to improve in terms
28:34
of productivity and efficiency, which is a matter very pending in Argentina And in
28:40
this sense, an interesting analysis also to share these plans, of these analyses
28:45
and stabilization plans is an article that Kigger and Libyatal wrote in nineteen eighty-
28:49
eight, of which he rescued three phases that are very interesting to take into
28:53
account for the moment we are going through. They say that reducing the rate
28:59
of ns evaluation is the dominant force for reducing inflation. This is from the
29:03
analysis they make of stabilization plans in Argentina up to one thousand nine hundred and
29:07
eighty- eight. Some of that we are seeing clearly now, because obviously
29:12
there has been a brake on devaluation and this has certainly helped to curb price
29:17
increases. We call it tranzable goods. But then they say this policy is
29:22
always abandoned with or after the increase in the fiscal deficit. And they end
29:26
with the following sentence. It seems difficult to question the conclusion that in Argentina
29:30
the root cause of the failure of stabilization programmes is the inability to persist in
29:36
the contraction of fiscal deficits. This is the main choice in the history of
29:38
stabilization of inflation in Argentina. I think this is where everything is played.
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One can also analyze cases that have occurred in Argentina, convertibility, what has
29:48
happened after convertibility, what has happened in the time of Cristina de Kirs,
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what has happened in the time of Macri and definitely, whenever attempts were made
29:56
to control inflation in the long run, the failure has to do with that
30:00
one cannot persist in fiscal discipline. To the extent that fiscal discipline is not
30:06
present, any stabilization effort ends up being useless, because the expectations that inflation
30:11
is going to happen at some point re- emerge And that ends up manifesting
30:15
itself in concrete inflation, in currency arrears and an evaluation cycle, like those
30:19
we already know for a long time. Whether this time will be different or
30:22
not will depend crucially on whether fiscal discipline can be maintained. What is being
30:27
seen is a tax effort rarely seen before in Argentina. I insist on whether
30:33
this can be maintained, whether this will be just an effort by the executive
30:37
or whether there will be some kind of conviction in the rest of the political
30:41
sector that this is relevant. If this can be achieved, I think that
30:47
you can then work on correcting other problems, such as those that may exist
30:52
at this time, that may make some incipient backward or exchange rate, because
30:55
definitely, at some point the official exchange rate is going to have to move
30:59
faster and logically keep in mind that it is not a linear process. The
31:03
decline in inflation is not overnight. But the key is to be able to
31:07
persist in that fiscal adjustment. That is what will allow Argentina if we can
31:10
maintain what is happening in other countries of the world, which is to be
31:14
able to use the exchange rate as a tool to isolate the economy from changes
31:19
at the international level. In Argentina, unfortunately, we are used to the
31:23
fact that the foreign exchange anchor is the only way to domesticate inflation. Logically,
31:29
changing with this is very difficult. There is a lot of demand for
31:33
this to be so, in order to be able to lower inflation, but
31:37
necessarily Argentina, if it wants to grow again and steadily, needs to go
31:41
to another way of domesticating inflation and has to be focused or based mainly on
31:48
the fiscal outcome, logically afterwards, complemented by a monetary policy that can be
31:52
discussed what it is but at some point Argentina, if it wants to go
31:57
through another stage and abandon its past, has to be able to cut that
32:01
dependence on the exchange rate in order to control inflation in Lambien that we cannot
32:06
do, We are going to be exposed to crises and recurring cycles like those
32:08
we have lived historically. We' ll see if this time the story is
32:10
different. We do not know yet, but the start I believe that with
32:15
the conviction shown by the Government is auspicious. We will see if it is
32:21
possible to sustain it politically by the conviction of the political class and whether the
32:25
population can advance and sustain this effort that is certainly very serious, because correction.
32:29
This is very strong, or s or plural construction. Driven by Fernando
32:53
Maurik by Radio Tren Topic