Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 528 - 6/10/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 528 - 6/10/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
• 0:14
  welcome to episode. 5/28. Of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:19
  betting podcast. Powered by Rhythm, I Am Your
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  host Josh Applebaum. What's going on?
• 0:30
  Everyone happy? Wednesday, it's officially.
• 0:32
  Hump day, guys, that means. We are.
• 0:34
  Halfway through our work week again, one day closer to another
• 0:37
  big weekend here, one day closer to mid June, and then.
• 0:41
  Before you know it. 4th of July, then kind of once you get past
• 0:44
  4th of July, guys, I've been, you know, kind of, you know,
• 0:46
  thinking about football, actually excited.
• 0:48
  To contribute. An article on how to.
• 0:51
  Win using VSN. NFL bet splits for my guy Adam
• 0:55
  Burke. Who is the managing director of
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  VSN? Dot com Adam's a colleague of
• 0:58
  mine and. We have a.
• 1:00
  An NFL betting guide coming out soon for Visen.
• 1:03
  So just got me thinking about football and I feel like again,
• 1:05
  you get through 4th of July, then it's like.
• 1:07
  Hey, you know, training camps, you know pre season football
• 1:10
  feels like it's. Right around the.
• 1:11
  Corner, so we're not there. Quite yet, who knows, we may
• 1:14
  have a bet on the hot dog eating contest on. 4th of July, but
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  kind. Of entering.
• 1:19
  The thick of the summer here as we are on a big hump day,
• 1:22
  getting one day closer to a summer weekend, which is about
• 1:26
  as good as it gets. But I got a lot to talk about on
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  today's podcast guys we have. Three Major League Baseball
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  bets. I got an.
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  Afternoon sweat. Late afternoon sweat.
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  I got a 7:00 game. I got a 930 game.
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  All three of these games are underdogs.
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  That's right. I was looking at all the lines
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  today and typically we're looking at a lot of favorites
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  just based on system matches. Line move splits.
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  Well, today most of these. Lines are moving toward dogs.
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  And all these three. Dogs we picked out are sharp
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  mush edges along with rhythm recommendations so we're.
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  Going to see if we can try to get.
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  Two out of three, and if we can get two out of three with dogs,
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  hey. That's producing a pretty
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  decent. ROI so trying to go 2.
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  And one in MLB and then. You know, I've been thinking the
• 2:06
  last couple days, guys, I've been thinking.
• 2:08
  Scared. Money don't make no money.
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  As the great philosopher, I think it was an Aristotle.
• 2:13
  No, I think it was young, Jeezy said.
• 2:15
  But last couple days I've. Just been, you know, hinting.
• 2:18
  Very quickly. You know, touching on NBA.
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  Finals here, of course, you know NHL Stanley Cup finals.
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  The other night I mentioned Hey I.
• 2:26
  Didn't play it but looks like the Spurs are.
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  Sneaky, sneaky. Sharp Spurs end up winning.
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  Then last night I mentioned, hey, you know, another high
• 2:33
  scoring game in the Stanley Cup finals.
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  Looks like that 5 1/2. Is really juiced over good?
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  Bets with to the over. Of course I didn't play it.
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  Of course it's a 5 to 3. Game and in the over.
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  Hits. So I'm thinking myself again,
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  scared. Money don't make no money.
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  Because I must admit, you know a few instances there we had a
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  four pack and would go 2. And one MLB but then lose the.
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  NHL Stanley Cup game or the NBA Finals game then be a a winning
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  night turning into a losing night but.
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  I'm looking at the game tonight. Spurs and Knicks.
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  Knicks up two to one. I'm looking at the line
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  movement. I'm looking at the bet splits.
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  I'm looking at what both. Juice reel and Rhythm are
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  telling me for sharp mush edges and AI recommendations.
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  And it's all lining up in One Direction.
• 3:16
  So I am going to. Dip my toe once again.
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  In the NBA Finals here and see if we can get a winner.
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  But again, scared. Money don't make no money.
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  And you can't win a game. That you don't bet.
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  You can also not lose a game you don't bet.
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  So there's both ways. To go about it.
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  But I figured, hey, everything's lining up.
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  Fits our model. Let's let's get down on.
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  A NBA playoff game here. Or championship, You know,
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  finals game here. So a four pack overall.
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  Three MLB, one NBA Finals. Before we.
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  Recap last night and get to our games here.
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  For tonight. I just wanted to mention it is
• 3:50
  now 22. Last call.
• 3:52
  Train is leaving the station. For the Applebaum World Cup
• 3:55
  Survivor contest with Splash Sports.
• 3:58
  So if you have been living under a Rock, You know what starts
• 4:00
  tomorrow? The World Cup.
• 4:02
  So I've mentioned this before, I'm hosting a World Cup Survivor
• 4:05
  contest. Even if you're not a huge
• 4:07
  soccer. Fan even if you don't.
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  Love the sport, you didn't play the sport.
• 4:11
  Growing up, you don't. Follow the sport.
• 4:13
  That's OK. If you're listening to my voice,
• 4:15
  you're a sports better. So what's the beauty of?
• 4:18
  You know, kind of the the purpose of this pod, which is a
• 4:20
  data-driven approach, it's that. Even though you may not know the
• 4:23
  sport, the. Insurance and outs if you can
• 4:25
  follow line. Movement.
• 4:26
  You can, you know. Lean on some AI.
• 4:28
  Models and sources. You can check out the Poly
• 4:30
  market predictions. You can still make some money
• 4:32
  here, so you don't have to be an expert on the XS and OS, but if
• 4:35
  you can track line movement, see how the.
• 4:37
  Market is reacting, Hopefully you can cash some tickets and I
• 4:39
  fully. Admit I am not a.
• 4:41
  Big soccer fan didn't play it growing up.
• 4:43
  I mean, everybody plays soccer. In the in their youth, right?
• 4:46
  Nope, not me. I didn't like it.
• 4:47
  I played baseball. I played hockey.
• 4:49
  But you know what? Every four years I'll dabble in
• 4:53
  the World Cup. I'm going to my buddies.
• 4:54
  World Cup party on Saturday. So he is married to a awesome
• 4:59
  Brazilian girl and she is making some incredible Brazilian food
• 5:03
  and we got a projector in his backyard.
• 5:05
  It should be a lot of fun. But I tell you what guys, once
• 5:07
  World Cup starts tomorrow. If you don't.
• 5:10
  Get in on this Survivor contest, I think.
• 5:12
  You're going to regret. It and that's.
• 5:13
  Not just me being a. A salesman here, even though I
• 5:16
  am, I must admit as I'm trying to get.
• 5:18
  As many people. To join as possible to promote
• 5:20
  Splash Sports, which I'm partnered with and of course you
• 5:23
  know a bit more people that enter the bigger the pot, the
• 5:25
  bigger the payout. But I I fully admit and I.
• 5:27
  Fully would recommend to you. 25 bucks.
• 5:30
  For an entry, you know, get in on the fun you.
• 5:33
  Got to pick 4. Teams.
• 5:34
  The first round is, you got to. Pick four teams to advance.
• 5:37
  Out of the group. Stage.
• 5:37
  You can't. Use them again, but then once
• 5:39
  you. Hopefully get your four teams
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  out of the group. You just got to pick one team
• 5:42
  per knockout round. And again you.
• 5:44
  Could turn 25 bucks into as much.
• 5:47
  AS 22,000. 500 so. Once we get this is literally
• 5:50
  the calm before the storm. Literally because once it starts
• 5:53
  tomorrow, the contest closes and it's.
• 5:55
  Going to be on. Every bar you walk into across
• 5:57
  the country, everybody's going to be talking about it.
• 5:59
  And again, I think it's more fun to have a little.
• 6:01
  A little. Skin in the game so.
• 6:03
  Please come down join the. Applebaum World Cup survivor
• 6:06
  contest. I've been tweeting about it.
• 6:08
  Just go to my Twitter page at Josh under score Insights.
• 6:11
  You'll see the invite. And then?
• 6:13
  Again, tell a friend. Throw that link to.
• 6:15
  Any buddies or you know relatives or Co workers people
• 6:17
  you know who might? Want to get down and?
• 6:19
  Again, more people that join, the bigger the pot for whoever
• 6:22
  wins it. So looking back toward last
• 6:25
  night, guys, another winning night, 2 and 1 plus. 0.48 units.
• 6:29
  Had a couple good hits. Early, which guaranteed a
• 6:31
  winning night with the Marlins getting.
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  It done 10 to. Six against Arizona.
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  Remember, Marlins had the worst record.
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  Arizona better record? But that line got steamed up
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  toward the Miami. It was a tied game late.
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  They blew it open there. With the bats.
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  Going nuts in the the final couple innings so.
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  Shout out to the fish. For getting it done and then
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  also the. Detroit Tigers Tigers were also
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  tied. I think it was three to three
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  and then they were down four to three.
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  Big Homer Dylan Dingler had a huge game.
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  But they end up. Winning 3:50.
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  They really turned it on late, so it's nice to see a Tigers
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  winner. Loser was the Stroh's.
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  Didn't have to stay up late. Didn't have to sweat it.
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  Lost 12:50 I. Went to bed there down. 7 to 1
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  so. Either way, guys, the beauty of
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  three packs. Trying to go 2.
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  And one he. Got a winning night that's.
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  Exactly what we did so. Couple winning days to start.
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  The week. Let's see if we.
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  Can turn it into a three day winning streak hopefully.
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  For today. So without further ado, let's
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  get to our baseball games. Here to start because I do have
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  an. Early game I.
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  Want to hit on? And then we'll finish up with
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  some NBA. Finals because I do have a bet
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  here for you for. Tonight.
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  Now first, but on the board, let's look at a relatively.
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  Early game here, bit of a. Late afternoon day sweat the.
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  Washington Nationals visiting the San Francisco Giants now
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  setting the stage for this one. The Nationals are 35 and 30.
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  Three on the year they've taken the first two games of.
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  This three-game series. They won the opener. 4:00 to
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  3:00 as a + 130 road dog. They won again.
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  Yesterday, six to three as. A -. 110 Road pick em.
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  So in this late afternoon series finale by the Bay.
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  The Nats are going to go with the lefty Foster Griffin.
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  He is 7 and two with a 3.63 ERA this year.
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  Giants, meanwhile, who are. 27 and 41 both the.
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  Giants and my Red Sox just awful, awful, awful this year,
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  but they're going to go with the fellow southpaw Robbie Ray.
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  Four and six with a four. .12 era so.
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  What do you see across the market?
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  Well, this game opened with San Fran listed around a -, 120 home
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  favorite Washington A + 100 Rd. dog.
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  And what's interesting here is that.
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  Hey, the Nationals. They're having obviously a
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  better. Year than they've had in.
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  Years past, obviously, San Fran has been.
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  Struggling, but national. Taking the first two nationals
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  can't possibly sweep right? San Fran's got to win this one.
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  At home, avoid the sweep. Well, not so fast.
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  I'm hoping not. I'm hoping for a sweep because
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  I'm going Nats here. I'm going Nats because this line
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  is moving. Toward.
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  Washington, we've seen the line. Fall away from San.
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  Fran -120 down to -110. We've seen the line move.
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  Toward Washington. +100. To -110.
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  So basically we are at a pick. Em game -110.
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  On both sides. And why is it important?
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  Because we're at a. Pick em after opening.
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  Washington as a dog? So we kind of have a dog to pick
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  em line move in favor of the. Nats.
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  We have a really good bet split out at Circa.
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  Washington is getting 67. Percent of money line.
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  Bets in 83%. Of money line dollars.
• 9:18
  So good low bets, higher dollar split from the pros out there
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  in. Vegas on the Nats.
• 9:23
  Washington, I'm going to. Bank on their bats, hopefully.
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  To get to Robbie Ray, Washington has the better offense. 322 on
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  base. Percentage 360 Two runs scored.
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  San. Fran A.
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  Three O 7 on base. Percentage with only 278 runs.
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  Scored in particular Nats going up against a lefty Robbie Ray.
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  They are. Hitting 268 against lefties this
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  year that. Is the second best in baseball.
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  And if you look at the starters, I want to back Griffin.
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  Griffin has made 13 starts this year.
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  And Washington is 10 and three in those games.
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  And he's been. Really good on the road. 5:00
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  and 1:00. 3.4 O ERA and he's also. 6 and O with a 3.24 ERA
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  during the day so Nats have played.
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  Really good behind. Griffin, they've also we've
• 10:08
  also. Seen Griffin pitch very.
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  Well, on the. Road and during the day.
• 10:12
  And this is a road day game. Washington also.
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  A good Rd. team. Knock on wood.
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  They're 23 and 13. On the road, that's the third
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  best Rd. record in baseball San. Fran, on the other hand, just 12
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  and 18 at home. That is the. 4th worst home
• 10:26
  record in. Baseball.
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  So we opened San Fran Decent. Favorite, you know, short,
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  modest favorite I guess. But now we're down to a pick em.
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  We have good bet. Splits on the Nationals.
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  We have better offense, hopefully the better pitcher.
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  We have a 5. Percent sharp mush edge from our
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  friends at. Juice Reel in favor of.
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  San Fran, Sorry in. Favor of Washington.
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  And then lastly, I popped open rhythm and noticed three rhythm
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  recommendations all lighting up. On the Nationals, so it would be
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  nice. Fingers crossed if we could
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  start our day off with a little afternoon sweat.
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  Afternoon winter. I'm going with.
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  Washington here, guys. I was able to find the Nats -1 O
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  6 at FanDuel again. Shop around because most books
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  now around -110. Let's go Nats next one for you.
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  Let's go north of the border. Up to Toronto, Canada, 7 O 7:00
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  PM Eastern Time, First pitch where the Blue Jays are hosting
• 11:19
  the Philadelphia Phillies. Now this is the rubber.
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  Match of a three. Game Interleague.
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  Series. The Phillies, who are. 36 and
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  31. They won the opener. 5 to 2 came
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  through. As a big minus. 185 road
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  favorite. Then we saw the Jays. 33 and 30.
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  Five. They bounced back with a three
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  to two win yesterday. Came through as a -. 110 home
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  pick em. So for tonight's series finale.
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  Phillies are going to go with the lefty.
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  Hey, Zeus Lizardo. He's 4:00 and 4:00.
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  With a four. .56 era. The Jays, meanwhile?
• 11:48
  Going with the ready veteran Max Scherzer.
• 11:51
  One and three with a. 9.64 era. What have we seen across the
• 11:55
  market? Will this game open Philly?
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  List around a minus. 145 Rd. Favorite Toronto A + 125 home
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  dog. And the public, they think this
• 12:03
  line is too short. Philly's got the better record,
• 12:06
  They got the better starter era. Scherzer's struggled.
• 12:08
  Scher's coming off the injured list.
• 12:10
  So right now we have. 73%. Of money line bets.
• 12:13
  Rushing to the window at. DraftKings to.
• 12:16
  Lay it with the fills. However, even though Philly's
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  getting nearly. Three out of four bets.
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  Philly's not. Up -145 to minus. 150 -, 160.
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  No, the lines gone the. Other way, even though Philly's
• 12:27
  getting. Three out of four bets.
• 12:29
  We've seen the Phillies fall. From -145 down to -130.
• 12:33
  So that tells us we have a reverse line move in favor of
• 12:36
  Toronto. Is also one of the most heavily
• 12:38
  backed games of the night. One of the most lopsided
• 12:40
  contrarian plays just to fade the public and go.
• 12:42
  Toronto, but as we know. You know going contrarian is
• 12:46
  just a starting point. You also want some.
• 12:48
  Element of smart money and the smart money is the.
• 12:50
  RLM in favor of Toronto. Because even though.
• 12:52
  Toronto is only getting a. Quarter of tickets they've gone.
• 12:55
  From plus 125 down to plus 115, some shops even down to around
• 13:00
  plus 1/10. I look over at Circa. 31% money
• 13:04
  line bets but. 62%. Money line dollars on Toronto.
• 13:08
  Tells us a lot of. Big money here going with.
• 13:10
  The Jays also got a couple system matches here on Toronto.
• 13:14
  Home dogs off a win. There's 76 and 80 this year.
• 13:18
  That's only. 49% win rate, but because you're getting plus.
• 13:21
  Money. That's a 4%.
• 13:22
  ROI, but here's the even. Better system if you're a dog.
• 13:25
  Off a win with line. Movement in your favor?
• 13:27
  And you're facing an opponent. Who made the playoffs the
• 13:29
  previous? Year those teams are. 39 and 36.
• 13:32
  52%. With a 13%.
• 13:35
  ROI now Toronto would also have some correlative betting dog
• 13:38
  high total. Total in this one is 8 1/2.
• 13:41
  Few books are juiced up over -115.
• 13:44
  But more expected run scored, more variance, more upset
• 13:47
  opportunities. Typically benefits the underdog.
• 13:49
  So we got everyone and their mother on.
• 13:51
  Philly. But the lines dropping toward
• 13:53
  Toronto? 25% sharp mush.
• 13:56
  Edge A big big. Sharp mush edge 25% from our
• 13:59
  friends at Juice Reel. On Toronto and also. 2.
• 14:02
  Rhythm recommendations Lighting up on Toronto.
• 14:06
  So you add it all up here guys. We got a smart.
• 14:08
  Money indicator with the line move.
• 14:09
  The RLM we got really good bet splits out at circa couple good
• 14:13
  system matches rhythm and juice. Reeler with us here.
• 14:16
  I'm taking a shot on the. Toronto Blue Jays.
• 14:19
  I got the Jays. Plus 1/15 at Bally Bet shop
• 14:22
  around a lot of books down to now around plus 110 but let's.
• 14:26
  Go Jays. Last bit of the night.
• 14:29
  Call me crazy, I keep playing this series.
• 14:31
  I'm going to play it one more time so far.
• 14:33
  We're one and 1111 lost one. I'll start to take the series
• 14:36
  and get this one here. I'm looking at a 9:38 PM
• 14:39
  Eastern. Time first pitch.
• 14:40
  Between the Houston Astros and the LA Angels.
• 14:44
  Now this is the rubber match of a three-game set.
• 14:46
  The Astros. 31 and 30. 8 on the year.
• 14:49
  They won the opener for us a couple days ago. 5:00 to. 4IN
• 14:52
  extra innings. Came through as a minus. 135
• 14:54
  road favorite but then played them last night and they got
• 14:57
  destroyed. The angels were 26 and 40. 2
• 15:00
  came back and. Won 12:50.
• 15:02
  Cast as a. Plus one O 5 home dog.
• 15:05
  Now in tonight's series. Finale pitching match up the.
• 15:07
  Astros are going to go. With the Rady Peter Lambert, he
• 15:11
  is five and four with a three-point. 55 ERA this year.
• 15:15
  He will be opposed. By Reed Detmers, the lefty.
• 15:18
  For the angels he is. 2:00 and 5:00.
• 15:20
  With a 4.26 ERA this year so. What have you seen across the
• 15:24
  market? Well, this game opened with the
• 15:26
  angels. List around a -, 125 home.
• 15:29
  Favorite and the Astros around. A.
• 15:31
  Plus one O 5 road dog and the public.
• 15:36
  Really doesn't know what to. Do kind of down the middle.
• 15:38
  Here, 5050. And what do we always talk
• 15:40
  about? 5050 ticket split.
• 15:42
  Theoretically, the. Line shouldn't move at all,
• 15:44
  right? Because the odds makers have
• 15:45
  balanced action. No need to.
• 15:47
  Adjust the price up or down. They probably set the perfect
• 15:50
  number, however. Even though you see a 5050
• 15:52
  ticket. Split.
• 15:53
  You know a lot of times line won't move at all, but sometimes
• 15:55
  it does move. So when it does.
• 15:57
  Move even though the tickets are.
• 15:58
  Split. That's a smart money.
• 16:00
  Indicator tells me that even though.
• 16:01
  The public may not. You know be taking a position
• 16:04
  wise guys have. Smart money has and it looks
• 16:06
  like the smart money has gone with the.
• 16:08
  Astros here. That's right.
• 16:09
  I'm going to the going to the Astros one more time.
• 16:11
  Cuz even though it's 5050. We've seen the line fall away
• 16:14
  from LA. -125 to -115. And toward Houston.
• 16:19
  Plus one O 5. To -1 O 5.
• 16:22
  We're also seeing a. Bunch of sharp bet splits here
• 16:25
  on the Astros along with that. 5050 line move.
• 16:28
  If we can be exact here, be technical Astros at.
• 16:31
  DK only getting 40? 7% of money line bets.
• 16:35
  However, they are getting 66% of money line dollars over at circa
• 16:39
  82% of money line bets. 95% of money line dollars on the Stroh.
• 16:44
  'S as well, so we got a 5050 line.
• 16:46
  Move toward the Astros. We got low bets, higher dollars
• 16:48
  of. Both DK and Circa we also have
• 16:51
  Houston with betting system value and correlative.
• 16:54
  Betting value as a divisional dog and a high total game so
• 16:57
  both teams from the. AOS that built in.
• 17:00
  Familiarity levels the playing field, benefits the team.
• 17:03
  Getting some plus money and then also we have the high total.
• 17:06
  Total this game is 9. So the more expected run scored
• 17:09
  more. Variance more upset
• 17:10
  opportunities now Lambert has been.
• 17:13
  Better on the road. Than at home, at home. 3.82 era.
• 17:16
  But on the road 2.93, he's on the road tonight, of course.
• 17:20
  And Houston is also. Three and O in his last three.
• 17:22
  Starts, so they've been playing. Well, behind him now, Reed
• 17:25
  Detmer's He's made 13. Starts this year.
• 17:28
  We have LA only going 4 and 9 in those games and he's actually
• 17:32
  been decent on the road. Two and two 3 point. 41 era but
• 17:35
  at home O and. 3. 5.11. Era is really struggled and of
• 17:40
  course. He's at home tonight.
• 17:42
  Now Houston is going. Up against the.
• 17:43
  Lefty Reed detmers the Astros. Are hitting two. 50 against
• 17:46
  lefties this year. That's the 9th best.
• 17:49
  Batting average against southpaws, on the other hand, LA
• 17:51
  they're. Only hitting 2:30.
• 17:53
  Four against righties. That ranks 24th.
• 17:57
  So we have. A 5050 line.
• 17:58
  Move bet split system matches. A 35% sharp.
• 18:02
  Mush Edge from our friends at Juice.
• 18:04
  Reel in favor of Houston. And also all three.
• 18:07
  Rhythm Recommend recommendations.
• 18:09
  AI models. Lighting up in favor of.
• 18:11
  Houston. One of which is a Green star
• 18:14
  smart signal recommendation, so. Planets are aligning again.
• 18:17
  We. Played Houston.
• 18:18
  All now all three. Games this series. 11 lost one.
• 18:21
  Let's even get one tonight. I was able to get Houston plus
• 18:25
  one. 100 even money at Caesar's. Definitely shop round because
• 18:28
  some. Books now most of them around -1
• 18:31
  O 5. For the strokes, so we got
• 18:34
  Washington, Toronto and. Houston, we get.
• 18:36
  Two out of three get a couple dogs to bark.
• 18:38
  They'll be a nice, nice winning baseball day.
• 18:41
  Now over to the NBA. Finals.
• 18:44
  Because again, the great philosopher Young Jeezy, I
• 18:47
  think. It was Young Jeezy.
• 18:49
  Once said scared money don't make no money, so again it's.
• 18:52
  It's one thing to identify a smart money play.
• 18:54
  We got to have the stones, the balls to get down and play it.
• 18:58
  So I think this is definitely an example of psychologically
• 19:01
  sports betting like baseball's going pretty good we're.
• 19:04
  Confident to get down in. Baseball.
• 19:06
  You know when I'm struggling in. NBA or NHL and things?
• 19:09
  Aren't going my way. I start to get in my head.
• 19:11
  I start to. Overthink things I'm able to.
• 19:13
  Identify something that's sharp but then I layoff because I'm
• 19:15
  snake bit or. I don't have the confidence to
• 19:17
  get down, but here's the thing. You're never going to get back
• 19:20
  in the green if you don't fire away when you see a sharp, sharp
• 19:24
  system match. So I landed on a play for
• 19:26
  tonight San Antonio. Spurs New York Knicks.
• 19:29
  The Spurs won the last game. Knicks were up to Oh, now it's.
• 19:33
  2 to one we are now game. 4 in New York and I'm going to get
• 19:38
  courtside seats next to Timothy Chalamet, Kylie Jenner and Ben
• 19:42
  Stiller. I'm going to sit next to my guy,
• 19:44
  Larry David, and hopefully we're going to get a winner here
• 19:46
  because I'm going with. The New York Knicks.
• 19:49
  The Knicks on the money line, guys, I'm.
• 19:52
  Going to tell you why I'm going New York.
• 19:54
  Let's start off with. The line movement this game open
• 19:56
  Knicks around -1 1/2 at home, very short 1 1/2 point home
• 20:00
  favorite. We've now seen the Knicks get
• 20:02
  but up to -2 some shops now even up to -2 1/2.
• 20:07
  So all movement from open to current.
• 20:09
  Has been told New York now number.
• 20:12
  Two, we got the line. Movement on the Knicks.
• 20:14
  Let's look at the bet. Splits because even though the.
• 20:17
  Lines move a little bit toward the Knicks.
• 20:19
  I'd rather not. Be in a big public spot.
• 20:21
  With everyone and their mother. Because that basically puts me
• 20:24
  with the crowd and I never. Want to be that I want to be
• 20:26
  against the crowd as a contrarian better and you're.
• 20:28
  Kind of. You're not totally against the
• 20:30
  crowd, but you're in a pretty sharp split in favor of the
• 20:33
  Knicks here. Let's start with DraftKings.
• 20:35
  Only. 54% of spread bets are on the Knicks.
• 20:39
  But it accounts for 79% of dollars.
• 20:42
  So basically the right down the middle. 5050 Nearly, but nearly.
• 20:46
  8 out of 10. Dollars on the Knicks.
• 20:48
  Then we look at circa. Only 57.
• 20:51
  Percent of spread bets on the Knicks, but it accounts for 80.
• 20:54
  6% of spread dollars, so the lines.
• 20:57
  Moving toward the Knicks -1 1/2 up to -2 -, 2 1/2.
• 21:00
  And both DK and Circa have low bets, higher dollar.
• 21:04
  Splits in favor of the Knicks, so we're starting.
• 21:05
  To build a case here. Then because.
• 21:09
  I am a fan of money lining short favorites I'd.
• 21:11
  Hate to see the Knicks win by one or two.
• 21:12
  I lose. A -. 2 1/2 I push a -. 2 I'm
• 21:16
  looking toward a money line play here so.
• 21:19
  If you look at. DraftKings on the money line.
• 21:21
  Only 49% of money line bets. But 56?
• 21:24
  Percent of money line. Dollars over at Circa.
• 21:27
  Only 61% of money line bets, but 94% of money line dollars.
• 21:33
  So both DK and Circa once again sharp on the money line for the
• 21:37
  Knicks to win this game. Next, I popped open juice.
• 21:41
  Reel. I noticed on juice reel.
• 21:43
  There is a 23. Percent sharp mush edge in favor
• 21:47
  of. The Knicks money line so it
• 21:49
  tells me a lot of winning betters who have downloaded.
• 21:51
  Juice Real like those of you out there listening.
• 21:53
  Also like the Knicks. Money line then.
• 21:56
  I look at rhythm and. Rhythm has a Green Star smart
• 22:00
  signal. Recommended play on the Knicks.
• 22:02
  Which means it's a high, you know, high generated smart
• 22:05
  winning signal. Model here in favor.
• 22:07
  Of New York with the. Projection or prediction of
• 22:11
  Knicks -3.2. So even if you want to save the
• 22:14
  juice and go spread, you can still.
• 22:16
  Find a -, 2 There's a lot of 2 1/2's out there.
• 22:18
  But you could lay A2. You know, rhythm's got 3.2.
• 22:21
  That would technically be an edge to me if I'm going money
• 22:24
  line the. 3.2 just gives me more wiggle room, makes me more
• 22:27
  confident. Lastly, I must admit if you are
• 22:30
  in sports betting, you kind of create overtime a group.
• 22:33
  Of people who you. Respect sharp guys, you.
• 22:35
  Listen to Lean on and at vson.com.
• 22:39
  I noticed that my buddy Matt humans.
• 22:42
  Who's one of the sharpest guys I know?
• 22:43
  It's always nice to. Me, I've been at VSON.
• 22:45
  It's unbelievable. About to hit in in September.
• 22:48
  My seven-year. Anniversary with Beeson, which
• 22:50
  is crazy I. Remember when I first started?
• 22:52
  Matt Yeemans was super nice to me.
• 22:54
  He's been in the business forever.
• 22:55
  He's a really sharp. Guy and on the Beeson betting
• 22:58
  picks at a glance page, I noticed that Matt Yeemans is
• 23:01
  also on the next money line tonight.
• 23:02
  So I'll take it if someone I respect who's really sharp also
• 23:05
  likes to play. Hey, that's good enough for me.
• 23:08
  So last angle here is to find the best price.
• 23:11
  And I found that the score formerly ESPN bet is.
• 23:16
  Offering Knicks -125 on the money line.
• 23:19
  So again, scared. Money don't make no money.
• 23:22
  Again, it's been more profitable to just stick with baseball and
• 23:26
  wouldn't it be just so apropos if everything's lining up in
• 23:28
  front of the Knicks and then the Spurs win?
• 23:30
  I guess that's the way it's been recently, but this is one of
• 23:33
  those plays where last couple nights again, Spurs the other
• 23:36
  night, the over in the hockey game last night.
• 23:38
  I'm identifying it, I'm not playing it.
• 23:40
  I'm leaving. Money on the table.
• 23:42
  Hopefully we're not leaving. Any money on the table here?
• 23:43
  Hopefully we can take some money.
• 23:45
  I'm going to go Knicks. Line movement.
• 23:47
  Bet splits sharp mush edge. Rhythm, my buddy Maddie.
• 23:50
  Humans, I'm going Knicks. Money line -125 at the score.
• 23:56
  Let's go, Knicks. So that about does it for
• 23:58
  episode 5. 28 of the all. Systems go sports betting
• 24:02
  podcast powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 24:04
  where. We wrap things up.
• 24:05
  And I always start. First by saying thank you.
• 24:08
  Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for
• 24:10
  grinding in the arena with me every single day through the.
• 24:13
  The good and the bad, the wins and the losses, the hot streaks,
• 24:15
  the cold streaks. But if you do enjoy this pod,
• 24:18
  which. Hopefully you value the
• 24:19
  insights, wouldn't you? Mind doing me a favor?
• 24:22
  Help me grow this podcast. Just give this podcast a five
• 24:25
  star review. If you're listening on Spotify
• 24:28
  or iTunes, I recommend the pod to a.
• 24:30
  Friend retweet the pod, click the follow button.
• 24:34
  Any or all? Of those things would be very
• 24:35
  much appreciated. Next, if you enjoy this style of
• 24:39
  sports. Betting data-driven sharp.
• 24:41
  Contrarian betting focusing on. Line movement.
• 24:43
  Bets with system matches. Taking a contrarian.
• 24:46
  Approach we got. Father's Day coming up, What are
• 24:48
  you going to? Get for Father's Day, for your
• 24:50
  dad, for your, for your son, your uncle, whoever your grandpa
• 24:53
  you know you should do. Don't.
• 24:54
  Just get him a collared. Shirt don't just get him you
• 24:57
  know a. Bunch of golf balls, even though
• 24:59
  I'm sure dad's like that too. But you know what you should do?
• 25:02
  Get them some knowledge. Go to Amazon.com, type in the.
• 25:06
  NFL sharp betting playbook or type in the everything guide to
• 25:10
  sports betting. Those are the two books that
• 25:11
  I've written. They're going to help help you
• 25:14
  really introduce that that person in your life, that dad in
• 25:16
  your life to a data-driven approach to sports.
• 25:19
  Betting so hopefully. They find it interesting and
• 25:20
  then. Hopefully they can make some
• 25:22
  money by going contrarian. Taking the sharp side.
• 25:24
  And they can buy as many collared shirts and and golf
• 25:27
  balls as they want. But if you want to give one or
• 25:30
  both of my books a five star review.
• 25:31
  And a nice comment on. Amazon, you would really make my
• 25:34
  day you. Bring them the sports book.
• 25:35
  I'll sign them for you. I'll.
• 25:37
  Buy you a beer. Or ginger ale.
• 25:39
  We'll sweat some some Knicks action and some baseball today.
• 25:43
  Next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
• 25:44
  Juice Real yet? My two favorite sports.
• 25:46
  Betting apps, they help me win. They're going to help you win
• 25:48
  because. They're all about the data.
• 25:49
  They're just another good box you can check off when you're
• 25:52
  going through your checklist for handicapping a game.
• 25:54
  So rhythm great for their AI backed.
• 25:56
  Models and predictions for game bets.
• 25:58
  And player props juice. Reel so many great features.
• 26:01
  You can sync up. Your sports books get a running
• 26:03
  report card of your action keep. Yourself honest identify your.
• 26:05
  Strengths and weaknesses you. Can get the robo Jackson AI best
• 26:09
  bet? Picks that come out each day at.
• 26:10
  Noon the sharp mush indicators the arbitrage plays.
• 26:13
  The shop for the best sign features if you also.
• 26:16
  Want to support the pod? You can get the all.
• 26:18
  Systems go best bet picks. Directly from Juice Reel.
• 26:21
  As soon as I make the play. It goes right to the ASG.
• 26:24
  Juice reel profile page and you can tail fade do what you like.
• 26:28
  But again, this. Podcast is free it.
• 26:29
  Cost you nothing to listen. So if you go out to dinner, you
• 26:33
  know the server takes care of you.
• 26:34
  Anytime your water glass is low, it gets refilled.
• 26:37
  They got a smile on their face. They give you that extra piece
• 26:39
  of bread. Whatever the case may be, you
• 26:42
  want to tip that server or if you go to the.
• 26:44
  BA and someone takes. Care of you, the bartender you
• 26:47
  know, make some good conversation again fills the
• 26:49
  water glass, makes you a good drink, you tip your bartender.
• 26:52
  Hopefully you enjoy this pod. And if that's the case, tip your
• 26:55
  podcast host by. Signing up to get the.
• 26:57
  ASG best bet picks. Directly from Juice Reel.
• 27:01
  It cost $9.99 a week for. Again, a full week's.
• 27:05
  Worth of plays. That's a.
• 27:06
  Dollar and $0.42 a day, 24 dollars.
• 27:09
  And $0.99. For a month $199.99.
• 27:13
  For a year. So it's a good way to.
• 27:16
  Let me know you. Appreciate the pod and also
• 27:18
  think of it this way, you're not only getting the plays.
• 27:20
  Early and hopefully beating closing.
• 27:21
  Lines, but you are contributing to my daughter's.
• 27:24
  Childcare fund because we're going to try to get through a
• 27:26
  year, but then she's going to have to go to daycare and
• 27:29
  daycare that ain't cheap. So the ASG best bet picks are
• 27:32
  going to. Help me pay.
• 27:33
  For her daycare. But you can.
• 27:35
  Download Rhythm and download Jewish.
• 27:36
  Real and give them both. A5.
• 27:38
  Star review in the App Store next.
• 27:41
  Do you have a live odds? Page.
• 27:42
  Well, if you don't have one, you need one.
• 27:43
  You got to try out Odds Logic. It's the best live odds page
• 27:46
  around. A live odds page is a critical
• 27:49
  tool for sports betters because it allows you to track the
• 27:51
  market in real time. You cut through the noise.
• 27:54
  You get to the signal. You find out OK.
• 27:56
  The game opened here. The line opened here, now it's
• 27:59
  up to. This or down to that so you can.
• 28:01
  Automatically track line movement.
• 28:03
  Identify Steam. Shop for the best price.
• 28:05
  Get live in game wagering odds. It's gonna be that one.
• 28:08
  Link or that one page you bookmark and spend a.
• 28:11
  Lot of time on throughout the day tracking the market.
• 28:14
  So Odds Logic is the best round. If you want to give it a shot,
• 28:16
  go to oddslogic.com/josh. 123. That's going to give.
• 28:21
  You a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first month of service.
• 28:26
  So that about does it for episode 520.
• 28:29
  Eight of the ASG pod. As always guys, two final
• 28:32
  thoughts, one whether. I see you at the Borgata in
• 28:34
  Atlantic. City Twin River in Rhode Island,
• 28:36
  The Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods.
• 28:37
  Or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
• 28:40
  Boston. Plain Ridge Park Casino MGM.
• 28:42
  Springfield. Or the Nash in my neck of the
• 28:44
  woods on the border of. Massachusetts and New Hampshire
• 28:47
  route in the desert where the true grinders get down.
• 28:49
  Where? Billy Walter sends his number
• 28:51
  runners where the lowest juice. Possible is found at the South
• 28:54
  Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
• 28:57
  stadium. Swimming.
• 28:58
  Pool when you cash a big ticket at Circa.
• 29:00
  Wherever it may be, you're going to walk.
• 29:01
  Up to me. Show me a nice Marlins.
• 29:03
  Ticket A beautiful Tigers ticket.
• 29:06
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 29:08
  We'll post about the book and and root for the Knicks.
• 29:11
  Like like Chalamet and Kylie. Jenner tonight.
• 29:14
  But as always, guys coming off with two and.
• 29:15
  One or one and two A3 and O&O and three.
• 29:18
  A winning night. A losing night.
• 29:19
  A2 day winning streak. A2 day losing streak.
• 29:22
  Whether we're hot or. Cold or somewhere?
• 29:23
  In the middle, we're always. Grinding.
• 29:25
  We're never getting too high when things are good or too low
• 29:27
  when things are bad. We're staying the course.
• 29:29
  We're thinking long term. We know sports.
• 29:31
  Betting ain't easy. It's a marathon, not a Sprint.
• 29:34
  We got to overcome the juice, avoid bad.
• 29:36
  Beats we got to make. Smart bets with our head and not
• 29:38
  our heart. But if we can.
• 29:39
  Find those games that fit our model.
• 29:41
  And layoff the ones that have the red flags.
• 29:43
  Find the games that are. Against the public with the.
• 29:46
  House with the pros, flat bet and avoid.
• 29:48
  Parlays, if we can do that. We're going to be successful
• 29:50
  sports betters. So I hope everyone has a great
• 29:52
  Wednesday night reminder. As always guys, you got 24 hours
• 29:55
  left. Come on down.
• 29:56
  Come join the Applebaum World Cup survivor.
• 29:59
  Contest and hopefully, hopefully one out one of you out there.
• 30:03
  Listening will turn 25. Bucks into 20K.
• 30:06
  Wouldn't that be pretty nice? So.
• 30:08
  So come on down, come join the World Cup.
• 30:10
  Survivor. You only got a day left.
• 30:12
  The the opportunity closes. OR ends at 3:00 Eastern Time
• 30:17
  tomorrow afternoon. But as always, guys, thanks for
• 30:19
  tuning in. We'll be right back at it
• 30:21
  tomorrow. For a Thirsty Thursday edition,
• 30:23
  that'll be episode 529 of The All.
• 30:25
  Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 30:29
  Good luck everybody and have a great.
• 30:31
  Wednesday night.