Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - The SpaceMobile Moat: Engineering, IPOs, and the Path to Global Connectivity
Transcript
- 0:06This is the AST Space Mobile podcast.
- 0:10We just basically come your phone be seamless regardless of
- 0:14where you are. We don't want the user even to
- 0:16know that it's connected by satellite.
- 0:21Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
- 0:27Everyone, thanks for joining. It's been quite some time since
- 0:30I've done this space. I've been quite busy actually.
- 0:33One of our kids is in early spring break and then the other
- 0:38one goes on spring break next week.
- 0:39And so yeah, I had my hands full.
- 0:42But yeah, I wanted to touch base on ASD Space Mobile.
- 0:46I've seen some investors who seem quite frustrated at the
- 0:52delays and I wanted to talk about some of those delays and
- 0:55the reasons for it and and why in the overall grand scheme of
- 0:58things it actually doesn't matter.
- 1:01But but yeah, I wanted to do that and also talk a bit about
- 1:07some recent regulatory stuff that's been kicking around.
- 1:09And then the SpaceX IPO, which I think, you know, is becoming
- 1:15more real by the day and is going to draw more interest into
- 1:18the sector. So let's start with, let's start
- 1:21with Bluebird 7. So Bluebird 7, obviously we ship
- 1:25that to processing center at Blue Origin quite some time ago
- 1:29and that satellite launch is pretty much out of the company's
- 1:33hands, right. Like any delays related to that
- 1:37are on the Blue Origin side. And understandably Blue Origin
- 1:42is being very methodical and deliberate in terms of launching
- 1:48New Glenn three with the reused never tell me the odds booster.
- 1:53And so why that's important is that this is the first time that
- 1:57New Glenn is reusing a previously used booster.
- 2:01And so New Glenn, sorry, Blue Origin, you know, they've taken
- 2:06that booster there, they've gone through the process of
- 2:10refurbishing it. You know, there's been
- 2:11complications. Of course, as with any first
- 2:14time process, you're going to make some mistakes and you're
- 2:19going to learn from them. And each time you do it, you're
- 2:21going to learn and get better, right?
- 2:23And that's, that's the process of learning.
- 2:26And especially for space, where the margin for error is the
- 2:31difference between something successful and then something,
- 2:35you know, when you don't, when you don't do things properly and
- 2:39they have, you know, unplanned disassemblies or you know
- 2:45something bad happened, then you're going to you're going to
- 2:49focus on getting it right the first time every time, right.
- 2:52And so that's the DNA that Blue Origin has.
- 2:56It's not they're not they don't have the same approach as
- 2:59SpaceX, where SpaceX will rapidly iterate and throw a
- 3:05speed at the wall and see what works, Learn and keep iterating
- 3:08to get to a point where you know, you through multiple
- 3:11failures, you get to a point of success, right.
- 3:13And so, so this, this new Glen free mission is taking longer to
- 3:20get the to make, you know, from their perspective, make sure
- 3:23that everything is at a point where they're satisfied and they
- 3:28think that there's a high level of success.
- 3:29And so that, that launch has been pushed back because of the,
- 3:34the booster refurbishment process, right.
- 3:38And so I think probably at this point we're looking at perhaps
- 3:42the first week or second week, maybe at latest of April.
- 3:46And so it, it actually kind of introduces interesting timing
- 3:50because that that launch is going to happen probably around
- 3:54the same time as the first one or two batches of Bluebirds 8
- 3:59and beyond get sent down to the Cape, right?
- 4:02And so April is shaping up to be a very, will be a very
- 4:08interesting and busy month Now moving on.
- 4:13So that's Bluebird 7, right? And so in the hands of Blue
- 4:16Origin, not much the company can do about it.
- 4:18We're waiting to see when New Glenn is going to launch and,
- 4:24and yeah, we'll, we'll get a, a press release.
- 4:27One thing to watch out for is when New Glenn 3 gets rolled out
- 4:31to the launchpad for a static fire test.
- 4:33And so once that happens, you should see, you know, probably
- 4:38within a few days there, there will be a, a launch date set
- 4:44that could happen within a few days or maybe at most a week.
- 4:48And so for those that are planning your travel, just make
- 4:51sure that you book refundable, you know, flights and, and then
- 4:56of course, don't pay for the hotel front.
- 4:58Make a reservation with a credit card and make sure it's really
- 5:00refundable, you know, pay the extra premium because this stuff
- 5:03can and does move around. So, so that's Bluebird 7 now
- 5:07moving on Bluebird 8 and beyond. So there's, you know, obviously
- 5:13the, the program is, is been delayed and this, you know, the
- 5:17company publicly disclosed that they were solving the stacking
- 5:21issue. And I want to make sure like
- 5:23people understand what that means.
- 5:25And so when working with composites, you know, you know,
- 5:29carbon fiber, these things that are, you know, you can mold into
- 5:33different shapes and they're extremely light and extremely
- 5:37strong, but they're very hard to work with.
- 5:40At least the we're doing it for the first time for a given
- 5:44application, it's going to take multiple iterations to get it
- 5:48right. And this stuff is hard, right?
- 5:51Like most companies that are doing, you know, space programs,
- 5:54they're not going to work with composites.
- 5:56They're going to use easy metals.
- 5:59I mean, the trade off with metals, of course, is that
- 6:03you're going to sacrifice weight for in order to have strength.
- 6:07But with composites, composites are kind of the Holy Grail,
- 6:11right? Where you are able to, you know,
- 6:15once perfected, you're able to have structural strength and,
- 6:20and very lightweight. And so that's it's unparalleled
- 6:23in terms of, you know, once that's deployed compared to a,
- 6:28you know, metallic, you know, comparable solution, you could
- 6:33have the equivalent strength, but somebody that's much, much
- 6:35lighter, right? And so for space where weight is
- 6:38really important for those companies that are willing to
- 6:41make a commitment, the payoff is really big, but the upfront
- 6:45investment is pretty high. And of course, learning curve is
- 6:48high too. I'm not a composite expert, but
- 6:52if you can imagine, you know, when I'm just thinking of
- 6:56different examples, like when Boeing first started making
- 6:59composite wings and you have layers of carbon and you've got
- 7:02to like, you know, put down, put down layer with some, some type
- 7:07of like adhesive. And then you've got to like heat
- 7:09it, you know, keep doing that. You have to make sure like
- 7:12there's no bubbles. You have to make sure the
- 7:15process is very consistent. Because if you don't do that,
- 7:19then you compromise the composite materials and then you
- 7:22lose out on what you were hoping to get from it, which is the,
- 7:27you know, the strength, right. And so I for ASD space mobile, I
- 7:33would assume that they probably went through some initial
- 7:37iterations and perhaps were happy with what they had.
- 7:40And then when they came down to doing testing, perhaps they saw
- 7:44things that didn't meet their standards.
- 7:46And so they iterated. They, they perhaps, you know,
- 7:50changed either the shape or design or perhaps some of the
- 7:53composite, you know, layering or where you strengthen it.
- 7:57And this is what they refer to as solving the stacking problem.
- 8:01Because if you think about like, you know, we'll call these
- 8:05things doughnuts, right? So if you have a composite
- 8:07doughnut and you stack one on top of the other one, then
- 8:11that's OK. But when you start stacking
- 8:14fully loaded, meaning there's like all the guts, the microns,
- 8:17everything into the, into the doughnut.
- 8:18If you start stacking or then the bottom ones have to be
- 8:25strong enough to support all the ones above, right?
- 8:27And and so in that instance, it's not just a matter of
- 8:32stacking, you know, for example, I think on, you know, some of
- 8:35these launch platforms, the Rockets will be sideways before
- 8:38it gets, you know, made to or pull pulled vertical.
- 8:43And so not only does it have to withstand vertical stacking, but
- 8:48then also it has to be strong enough to hold all the members
- 8:51on top of it sideways, right? And so when thinking about
- 8:56testing these composite Donuts, you know, I would assume the
- 8:59company probably has, you know, you take an empty donut and a
- 9:04composite donut and then you put vertical pressure on it to
- 9:08measure its strength. You put then you turn it
- 9:10sideways and you you put pressure on it to measure, you
- 9:12know, the horizontal strength. You also come at it with various
- 9:16angles to make sure that that structure is going to hold up
- 9:23in, you know, multiple GS type of launch, right, in a New Glenn
- 9:29or Falcon 9 rocket. And not only that, but then you
- 9:33know, for the the, the doughnut that's on the bottom, it's got
- 9:37to support the weight of three on top of it or two on top of
- 9:40it, or in New Glenn's case, 5 on top of it or in the optimal
- 9:44configuration 7. And so that's not an easy
- 9:48problem to solve, right? And so I think that's where
- 9:51you've had some level of delays, but then out of that, it appears
- 9:56that the company has solved those stacking issues.
- 9:58And and so now they're at a point where they're integrating
- 10:03the payload into the Donuts, right?
- 10:05And so that's the microns, that's the, the, the guts, the
- 10:10the processing and everything batteries, you know, that go
- 10:14into the center that outside of what's in the Micron, but
- 10:18they're apparently through that, right?
- 10:19And so now it's a matter of finishing integration of those
- 10:23and then testing them and then shipping the 1st 2 batches in
- 10:27April. And so those first two batches,
- 10:29by the way, like there's been some talk on, on Twitter about,
- 10:36you know, whether it's going to go on New Glenn or Falcon 9.
- 10:40I'm pretty certain based off of work that Space Mob has done
- 10:44that the first two batches of three are going to be on Falcon
- 10:469. And so as I said before, you
- 10:50know, we all see the Duke Glenn 3 launched sometime in first
- 10:55week or two of April and you'll probably see the first shipment
- 11:00of the first batch sometime mid to late April is my guess.
- 11:04And so I think it's important to understand, you know, where we
- 11:08are in the process. So the company is making north
- 11:11of 6 satellites worth of microns a month at this point.
- 11:15And I assume all the hardware that goes into the donut or the
- 11:19ring, they're already at six per month.
- 11:22And so now it's really just a matter of getting production of
- 11:26the donut that the composite ring up to that level 2 and then
- 11:32and then we're off, right. And so at this point, you know,
- 11:36there's been some questions about, you know, how many Falcon
- 11:389 versus New Glen launches do we have this year?
- 11:41I think we have something on the order of 4 to 5 Falcon 9
- 11:45launches or perhaps more. And then we've got new Glen
- 11:48launches as well. For those that you have seen New
- 11:52Glen, there's been St. as filed for New Glen 4, New Glen 5, New
- 11:57Glen 6. And so some of those are going
- 11:59to be our launches, dedicated launches.
- 12:03And then additionally, the company has talked about, they
- 12:07publicly disclose that and they've signed on an additional
- 12:10heavy launch vehicle, which I think is likely Mitsubishi
- 12:14Heavy. But there is a possibility too
- 12:16that it might be Arian and or United Launch Alliance, right.
- 12:22Although I think as Kathy, as as duly pointed out, you know in a
- 12:27recent filing where we are planning to put up a, a shell,
- 12:33Equatorial shell, The only launch provider that can really
- 12:36do that is Arian because they're they launch out of I think it's
- 12:39like French Canada one of those places.
- 12:41But anyway, but yeah, so I think we, you know, this is something
- 12:47that we kind of discussed before that this is a new program do
- 12:55new spacecraft and you're going to have you're going to have
- 12:59production. You're going to have to go
- 13:00through production health to the initial upfront investment of
- 13:03getting the tooling, training, the people doing everything.
- 13:07And in this case, Microns, you know, the company has built a
- 13:10huge backlog of Microns, I think enough for 10s of I forget what
- 13:16the disclosure was, maybe it was like 20 or 30 satellites.
- 13:19So microns are not the issue. It's really that composite donut
- 13:22ring that that the the secret sauce that brings the weight of
- 13:27the satellite down from what FM 1 and FM two were I think around
- 13:326000 kilograms, bringing that down to like 4000 or so
- 13:35kilograms. And so, so, yeah, that's a
- 13:39really important piece of the puzzle, which I think as I said
- 13:42before, if you go out and look at what other satellite
- 13:47manufacturers are doing, I don't, I mean, I personally, I,
- 13:51I don't know if I've seen composites being used.
- 13:54Usually you see these satellites with metallic shells.
- 13:56And so, but of course no one's building something as big as we
- 13:59are. I don't know, maybe K2 is doing
- 14:02it. I haven't really looked closely
- 14:03at their satellites, but this is kind of this is where, you know,
- 14:08if you're going to build at scale large satellites, you're
- 14:12going to want to eventually get to composites, right?
- 14:14And so it's just on the one hand, people may look at and
- 14:17say, man, that's, that sucks, like we're delayed.
- 14:21But on the other hand, it's like that's part of the that's part
- 14:23of the competitive Moat friends. Like if you can work in
- 14:26composites. And you know, we've seen the
- 14:29hiring at AST over the last few months where they're bringing in
- 14:33a ton of people who, who are composite specialist in
- 14:36production and design. That's going to be a huge
- 14:40differentiating your competitive aspect that no one else really
- 14:44has. And so, so that's why, you know,
- 14:48that's why the inks are taking a bit longer.
- 14:49And as I've discussed before, that's OK.
- 14:53It's inevitable, right? Like as we saw recently with
- 14:58O2's disclosure of Starlink's direct to cell performance, you
- 15:02know, they're at 4 megabits per second in a given cell and those
- 15:06satellites only have 4040 cell beams that they can protect
- 15:09down. And so they're way, way, way
- 15:11behind in terms of the actual underlying technology.
- 15:14Are they there first? But service, yeah, they're
- 15:16there. But it's a minimally viable
- 15:19products, right. And so once the Block 2
- 15:21satellites are up and by the way, we have a Block 2 satellite
- 15:25out there in space, Bluebird 6, which you know, the government
- 15:29is doing testing and, and so are carriers.
- 15:31And so, you know, we're just waiting for the origin to put
- 15:34Bluebird 7UP. And in the terms of production
- 15:37cadence, we're pretty much there for Block 2 is just making sure
- 15:42that these composite shells are strong enough to survive launch
- 15:47and and live out their useful lives out in space.
- 15:51And so, so that's where we are. And I know people are, you know,
- 15:58lamenting the delays, but this is space.
- 16:01Like I, I put a meme out the other day, it's like you have to
- 16:04be a certain kind of crazy to invest in these companies
- 16:06because they're delays are inevitable, right?
- 16:08Doing hard things requires time and effort and money.
- 16:13And if that's not your cup of tea, if you want to go invest in
- 16:17a company that's making toothbrushes, then you should
- 16:20probably go do that, right? But that's not where outsized
- 16:23returns are going to be. It's going to be in stuff that
- 16:27has tremendous Tam and upside, but is really hard and and it's
- 16:33difficult, right. And so that's that's what ASD is
- 16:37in a nutshell. And so moving on, I think you
- 16:42know, we've seen some recent filings at the FCC where Verizon
- 16:47it looks like they're coming up the record.
- 16:49There's some some filings around 8 there 850 megahertz spectrum
- 16:53licenses that they they filed with the FCC probably to tidy up
- 16:58the the docket. And then of course Kathy and
- 17:02Tanner post yesterday that the that AST through the FCC filed
- 17:09additional satellite shells at the ITU.
- 17:12And so, yeah, all these things kind of point to what I
- 17:17understand, you know, management has indicated to people is that
- 17:20the FCC approval for U.S. market access is, is pretty close, like
- 17:26we're talking not months, but weeks or imminent.
- 17:30So yeah, keep your eye out for that.
- 17:32I mean, the steps are all, you know, the progress is being
- 17:36made. The all the telltale signs are
- 17:39there. And so that could get sprung
- 17:41anytime now. And of course, you know, it's
- 17:43hard, I get it, like the market is volatile and and people's
- 17:48emotions tend to run high. But I think it's important take
- 17:51a step back. Like if you look at the space
- 17:53sector and this year's year to date performance versus like MAG
- 17:587, we have outperformed the market, right?
- 18:01And you know, is that going to continue and is that guaranteed?
- 18:03No, it's not guaranteed, but is it going to continue?
- 18:07In my mind, yes, because you know, as we saw, SpaceX will be
- 18:11following their, their S1, their IPO prospectus.
- 18:15It's going to be confidential initially, but then once they
- 18:18get to a certain level of review, then that will be
- 18:21public. And as I understand, I believe
- 18:24Spacex's plan to go public in June, July.
- 18:26So that's going to be a pretty tremendous catalyst for the
- 18:29sector in terms of bringing institutional awareness to other
- 18:34players and bringing, you know, capital into the sector as well.
- 18:39And So what was a sleepy backwater, you know, new space
- 18:42companies. I mean, back in the day, you
- 18:44could only really invest in the large primes like Lockheed
- 18:47Martin, Boeing, and of course those guys are doing plenty of
- 18:50other things. They're they're diversified
- 18:52conglomerates, whereas now you've got pureplay companies
- 18:55that you can invest in. And so I think space is well
- 18:58positioned, right? You've got Golden Dome, which
- 19:02you know, of course it's, it's hard to keep track of all this
- 19:04stuff, but I think the company is very feels really good about
- 19:09getting Golden Dome Ward perhaps in the second quarter.
- 19:13And so that's something to look forward to.
- 19:15And you've got, yeah, you've got a ton of catalyst that are
- 19:18coming up for this company, which you know, I, I, I shared
- 19:22the updated list, which is long and confused to grow.
- 19:25And of course, yeah, there's a lot to look forward to.
- 19:29That said, obviously there's there's macro concerns going on,
- 19:34but if anything, I think I think Michael Pollock, who's the head
- 19:38of government, some of that quite well.
- 19:40I wasn't there when he spoke, but he was he was part of a
- 19:44panel at satchel and he closed by saying that if anything, the
- 19:51conflict on Iran and Ukraine have give it have made the
- 19:56government, you know, our importance of the government
- 19:58even higher. What do you mean by that is you
- 20:01know, I assume AST space, mobile, some aspects of the
- 20:05company's? Service has been used perhaps in
- 20:07those theaters and so as a test case, whatever the the 10 uses
- 20:15that AST, you know, the Bluebird satellites have applicability
- 20:20for military and defense. Perhaps they're showing showing
- 20:24their you know, their their their stripes like they're doing
- 20:27well. And so, so that's an exciting
- 20:30validation for Michael Pollack, who, you know, we've seen some
- 20:34of his presentations at these conferences, which have been
- 20:37quite informative. But but clearly the company has
- 20:41a ton of traction with the military and the US government.
- 20:44And so, so that that aspect, which is, you know, for this
- 20:48coming year in terms of financial impact is pretty big.
- 20:52So anyway, I've got a hop. I've got to take care of a few
- 20:55things with the kids. But yeah, I just want to give
- 20:58everyone an update. Obviously, the markets are very
- 21:01volatile. We're we're trading on headlines
- 21:04from the US administration, from Trump, from Iran, you know, and
- 21:10depending on which part of Iran, if it's like hardliners or
- 21:14moderates, you know, the headlines change minute to
- 21:18minute. And yeah, it's kind of hard to
- 21:21read this stuff, right? Because at the end of the day,
- 21:24there's back channels, there's like negotiations going on.
- 21:26But then also there's a lot of chest pounding, right?
- 21:30And so people are whether it's to save face or improve
- 21:34negotiating positions, you know, obviously the US is sending more
- 21:39personnel and military assets to to Iran.
- 21:43And is that to pressure them or is that to actually do
- 21:46something? Yeah, I mean, you can, you could
- 21:49pretty much, you know, justify or, or think of a scenario as to
- 21:56why Iran saying certain things, US is saying certain things.
- 22:00We're we're doing, you know, we're taking certain actions,
- 22:03but but yeah, I, I don't, I don't know what's going to
- 22:06transpire, but I do know that ACC bubble has four billion in
- 22:11cash is going to launch the consolation and and startup
- 22:16service this year. I know that we're going to get
- 22:20additional military awards and our importance to military and
- 22:23defense has become an even that much greater.
- 22:27And then on top of that, you know, you've got Firstnet here
- 22:31in the US, of course, and then you've got the commercial
- 22:33business, which is going to take off.
- 22:35So anyway, I'll close with that. Hope this was informative for
- 22:40people. And if you have questions, maybe
- 22:43I'll do another space or you know, leave comments and maybe
- 22:46I'll try to reach, reach out and reply to this.
- 22:49Thanks and we're enjoying. Thanks.
- 22:50You'll check the site Fest the mob in the room.
- 22:53Mob in the room. He says it, It can't be done
- 23:23with the smirk on the chin. But the space of mob is deep.
- 23:26Let the games begin. It's a clash of the Titans, The
- 23:29believers in the doubt. We know what this revolution is
- 23:32really about. Space of mob rules.
- 23:34Word up. We the heavyweights chasing
- 23:36constellations. Opening the celestial gates to
- 23:39fly shark and Cata sea. We salute the deep dive.
- 23:41Keeping the truth in the moment. And I'm alive.
- 23:43Yeah. We love the wrist.
- 23:45Let the skeptics all talk. The futurism flight while Tim
- 23:48takes a walk. The futurism flight while Tim
- 23:50takes a walk. The.
- 24:05Tim is a ghost in the machine quote in the past while we
- 24:08moving out of speed that's too heavy and fast.
- 24:10They call it a gamble. We call it a design linking up
- 24:13the satellites crossing the line from the cell tower deserts to
- 24:17the mountain peak high. We painting the network across
- 24:19the entire sky to tell the consultsman with the well regard
- 24:23degree that the space of Mazzatati is just a Pebble in
- 24:25the sea. We love the wrist.
- 24:27Yes, a Pebble in Lee. At first I pair my hide.
- 24:30He's just a Pebble in sea. We love the risk.
- 24:33Yeah, it's etching our soul. Taking back the power.
- 24:35Taking back the control. Space of mind.
- 24:38Rules. Word up.
- 24:39We the heavyweights chasing constellations.
- 24:41Opening the celestial gates to fly shark and cata scene.
- 24:44We salute the deep dive. Keeping the truth in the moment
- 24:46and them alive. Yeah.
- 24:48We love the risk. Let the skeptics all talk.
- 24:50The futurism flight while Tim takes a walk.
- 24:53The futurism flight while Tim takes a walk.
- 24:55The futurism flight while Tim takes a walk.
- 24:58Yeah. Space of mind.
- 25:02Fly shark out of sea. We out here in the vacuum, Tim,
- 25:11go home. The future is connected.
- 25:15We love the risk. Peace.
- 25:25Thanks for listening to the AST Space Mobile podcast.
- 25:28If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the
- 25:31podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social
- 25:35media, or leave a rating and review.
- 25:37To catch all the latest news about AST Space Mobile, make
- 25:41sure to subscribe. Thanks again and I'll see you
- 25:44next time. We're doing something very, very
- 25:49big and I think with this technology we can really affect
- 25:52billion lives. AFT Space Global is the only
- 25:55company that has proven technology to deliver cellular
- 25:59broadband connectivity directly from state to do everyday
- 26:03smartphone. People will just basically turn
- 26:06their phone and be seamless, regardless of where you are.
- 26:09We don't want the mutual even to know that it's connected by
- 26:11satellite. Our role is to bring this into
- 26:15reality, always in partnership with the MMO.
- 26:24Listen, Waffles.