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When to Go for It on Fourth Down · NFL explained.

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  Speaker 1: dot up work dot com. So it's fourth down, they
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: take their final time out. You've got a minute and five.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Oh boy, well, you don't dare if you what do
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: you do if your Baltimore right now? Don't just count
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: the possibility that they go for this. No, you don't.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: This's gonna be one hell of a call, though, and
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson is going back on the field and they
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: are going for it, or at least the hard at
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: least line up. Chiefs had to make sure they don't
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: jump and Jackson will get the first down and then
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: affect on the game Mike. Week two of this season,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Chiefs at Ravens a late fourth down in the game
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: camera Scott John Harbaugh mouthing the words to Lamar Jackson,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: do you want to go for this? It wasn't really
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: the hardest call to make, but it was a tremendous
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: moment just because you saw the synergy between the head
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: coach and the player and this idea that the head
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: coach is giving the player ownership of this moment. And
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you this, nobody was calling for a punt
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  Speaker 1: right there, like nobody. So that is the topic of
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  Speaker 1: today's NFL Explained episode. When should teams go for it
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  Speaker 1: on fourth down? Why don't they go for it more?
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  Speaker 1: And why don't they go for it when they should
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  Speaker 1: go for it. I'm Adedy Kinkabala, joined as always by
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: my fabulous friend Mike Yam who would always go for
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: it on fourth down right, always always go time. The
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: biggest surprise would have been in that moment if Lamar
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: said no, just punted away like Holmes take it over,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: that would have been the biggest surprise there. But you know,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: kind of judging from the Hardball clip and some of
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the postgame interviews and the things that we've read about
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: this game and heard about this game, at times, you
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: might actually say to yourself as a sports fan, like,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: there's no real formula situations like this, like you shoot
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: from the hip, you go with your gut. But on
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: the contrary, there are so many different ways to analyze
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: all of this, and the analytics boom is a big
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: reason for that. You always see the guys that have
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: the sheets that looks sort of like play sheets, like
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: there is just math that is on there for a
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: lot of code just decide whether or not they want
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  Speaker 1: to go forward or not. We're not going to overdo
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: it with the numbers and the formulas. But there is
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: a reason why d D Some teams now have multiple
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: not just one or two, but more than a few
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  Speaker 1: analytics experts on their payroll. So in this episode, we're
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: gonna give a little bit historical context on the fourth
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: downs will analyze a couple of real life situations from
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: this season to see if the coach has actually made
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: the right call, and we'll dive into the psychology behind
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: all of this. D D. Because you've talked to some
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: analytics experts, there really is a psychology behind a lot
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: of these decisions. Oh a ton, because the math and
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: the statistical models and the historical trends can absolutely tell
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  Speaker 1: you something, but there are so many variables, whether it's
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: the weather, whether it's your center is healthy or not,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: how your team is doing, what the momentum is, if
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: your head coach is a gutsy guy or afraid of
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: what reporters might say to him after a game. But
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: let me tell you this, we've probably have been talking
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: about when to go for it, when not to go
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  Speaker 1: for it, what is the math, what's not, what's your
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: gut feel, all of that for a dozen years now,
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  Speaker 1: at least in my memory. I'm going back to two
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  Speaker 1: thousand and nine. It was a Colts Patriots game. The
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  Speaker 1: Colts were eight no. New England was six and two.
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  Speaker 1: Tom Brady was coming off of that. I R season,
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  Speaker 1: and there were two minutes left in the game. Bill
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  Speaker 1: Belichick and the Patriots faced a fourth and two on
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  Speaker 1: their own twenty eight, and Bill Belichick decided to go
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  Speaker 1: for it. Now. The Patriots didn't convert, and the Colts
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  Speaker 1: drove a very short field for a touchdown. They won
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: the game, and Belichick was absolutely crushed for it afterwards.
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  Speaker 1: But what he probably did was look at his defense
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: and he figured, you know what, we're not going to
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: stop Manning anyway. We're not gonna stop him if he
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: starts on his own twenty. We're not going to stop
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: him if he's on our twenty. So here we go
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: because the Colts at that point where ain't no Brady
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  Speaker 1: had been good a against the Colts, but he was
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: coming off of I R. And you know there were
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: rivals and at some point, Mike, what does Sperceians like
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: to say, no risk it, no biscuit? Is it feast
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: or famine? Like at some point you just have to,
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: you know, take a chance. And that's exactly what Bill
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Belichick said that he thought it was his best chance
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  Speaker 1: to win. His words, where I thought we needed to
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  Speaker 1: make that one play and then we could run out
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  Speaker 1: the clock. The trouble was is that the Patriots didn't
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  Speaker 1: get those two yards, and so the traditional media crushed
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  Speaker 1: Belichick for it. But the very next day, Mike Brian Burke,
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  Speaker 1: who is a big analytics expert at the time, wrote
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  Speaker 1: an article in the New York Times and he said, no, no, no, no, no. Actually,
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  Speaker 1: all the statistical models, all the historical trends, all the
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  Speaker 1: numbers say that Bill Belichick was actually right. And that's
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  Speaker 1: where all the data guys and ps. The fans who
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: love seeing the offenses stay on the field rejoiced ya,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Nerd Nation, loving every single moment of that decision. But
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  Speaker 1: there are a lot of variables that DD. You made
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  Speaker 1: reference to it, where you are on the field, the weather,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: the whole thing. When it comes down to making a
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  Speaker 1: decision whether or not to go for it on fourth down,
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  Speaker 1: game personnel, there there's a lot at stake and a
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  Speaker 1: lot behind some of those decisions. In fact, the DD
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  Speaker 1: the last four seasons have seen the highest percentages since
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  Speaker 1: and furthermore, teams have actually gone for more in successive
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  Speaker 1: seasons each year for the past nine years. So basically,
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  Speaker 1: the numbers are telling a field story of what we're
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: all witnessing. I think most of us say, hey, people
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  Speaker 1: are going forward, Teams are going for more on fourth down. Well,
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  Speaker 1: the numbers are actually supporting it. And if we're talking
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  Speaker 1: about strictly fourth and one at the time of this taping,
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  Speaker 1: which is essentially basically the halfway point of season, teams
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  Speaker 1: are going forward a d D seventy point one percent
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  Speaker 1: of the time. And again it's increased every single year
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  Speaker 1: since twelve, when teams went for it on fourth and
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  Speaker 1: one only thirty five point three percent at a time.
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  Speaker 1: I know I'm throwing a lot of numbers at everyone here,
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  Speaker 1: but just think about this for one second. Teams are
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  Speaker 1: going for it twice as much on fourth and one
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  Speaker 1: as they did nine years ago. From a statistical standpoint,
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  Speaker 1: that is just absolutely staggering. Now, the biggest question is
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  Speaker 1: are those attempts actually successful. Well, the conversion rate on
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  Speaker 1: fourth and one up to this point in season sixty
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  Speaker 1: four point six percent at the time a d D.
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  Speaker 1: Those numbers, that's the reason why teams are going for
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  Speaker 1: it on fourth and one a whole lot more than
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  Speaker 1: they have in the past. Looking at the data from
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  Speaker 1: the start of if you move that yardage back, Mike
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  Speaker 1: from one yard to three yards, that conversion rate does
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  Speaker 1: drop twenty percentage points to forty five point one, So
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  Speaker 1: perhaps it's a little bit dicey, but again, forty five
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  Speaker 1: point one percent chance of success, it's not like you're
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: looking at a five percent chance of success. And it's
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: going back to those psychological factors. How are you doing,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: what is your line look like, what is your play calling,
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: what do you have behind what you're doing. But let
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  Speaker 1: me tell you this, from the start of the conversion
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  Speaker 1: rate on fourth down from fourth and anywhere one to
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  Speaker 1: three yards was sixty one seven For fourth and anywhere
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  Speaker 1: from four to five yards was forty five point three percent.
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  Speaker 1: So when you take those same distances on third down,
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  Speaker 1: the percentages of sixty two and forty five are almost
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: exactly the same. So if you feel good on third down,
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  Speaker 1: then you're not increasing or decreasing your opportunity on fourth
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  Speaker 1: down right there. And again this comes back to the
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  Speaker 1: idea of do you want to keep your offense on
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  Speaker 1: the field. If you have let's say a dozen offensive
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  Speaker 1: possessions a game, then you're kind of potentially gaining an
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  Speaker 1: extra one if you're believing in your offense on fourth down. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: four down territory, no matter where you are on the field,
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  Speaker 1: no matter what the clock says. It's kind of cool
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: from an offensive standpoint, but it's interesting because it does
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  Speaker 1: I think beg this, this question and this vibe around
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: fourth down maybe adding more pressure to an offense. But
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's necessarily the case. You know,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: a d when when we've been doing this podcast, you
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: are quick to to throw out the question. So I
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  Speaker 1: got one for you now. The most unstoppable play in
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  Speaker 1: the history of the NFL is what. Oh? I know
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: this because I screamed for it constantly, especially when I'm
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh Steeler games. It is the quarterback sneak. To me,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: the quarterback sneak is the most underused play in the NFL,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: and Tom Brady is I believe Mike the most successful
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  Speaker 1: at this. Do you know that he has converted more
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: than nine of his quarterback sneaks for first downs? It
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: is wild to me. Although you've brought up the Steelers
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: and quarterbacks like in your Big ben'size, like, I can
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: understand a dB why you want to see him all
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: the time, Because Mike Tomlin forever did not want his
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: quarterback doing a quarterback sneak, and Ben Roethlisberger is six
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: ft five, I mean, if you need a yard fall forward,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: and for the majority of Ben Roethlisberger's career he played
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: behind an all Pro center in Marquis Pouncey, who could
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: push anybody out of the way. Can you tell how
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: passionate I get about this And this is me in
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: a press box where you have to be quiet and
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: not yell, oh my goodness, where is the quarterback sneak?
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: But it doesn't always work, because earlier this year there
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: was a very very key Bills game when Sean McDermott,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Bill's head coach, Sean McDermott did indeed go for the
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: fourth Town, which was absolutely the correct call. But Josh Allen,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: who I also have a tremendous amount of appreciation for
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: as a quarterback and who also has a tremendous amount
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: of size to him, could not convert that fourth Town
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: quarterback sneak book, It's not a dent at a time
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Brady has done it better than anyone else, and it's
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: I D point three. I don't think anyone will ever
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: look at the Tom Brady sneak again the same exact
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: way after listening to this podcast for what it's worth
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: add you asked me what unstoppable play. I would have said,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: God's play. Let's run a little power here, and that
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: would have been effective. But the sneak from the number standpoint,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: that's what it comes down to. But just fascinated by
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: the fact that he has had that much success holding
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: on to the football and leaning forward. But when we
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: come back in DED, we're gonna actually look at some
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: high profile situations from this season and see if the
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: coaches actually made the right call. Will also dive into
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: the psychology behind the decision making as well. She's a
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: d king Kabalan, I'm Mike. Yeah, it's NFL explained. Build
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• 13:25
  Speaker 1: I keep getting some questions from some of our listeners.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: I know we're going to do a mail bag edition
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: of this podcast, and I know you're getting some of
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: these questions as well. So happy to compile as many
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  Speaker 1: as we can get. And we love hearing from a
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: lot of our listeners. It's been awesome to kind of
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  Speaker 1: interact with a lot of you folks and continue to
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  Speaker 1: spread the show. But we do want to get back
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: to fourth down and more specifically the fourth down that
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: we highlighted a d D at the top of the show.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: With Lamar Jackson and the Ravens leading the Chiefs by
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: one point with just over a minute ago on their
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: own forty three yard line. John Harbor might have been
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: on the fence maybe about whether or not he should
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: go for it on him Yeah, I know with you,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: but he did ask his quarterback for advice. And if
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: he had at the time or at least had the
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: time to consult next Gens stats, how convenue that would
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: have been, they would have come up with the decision
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: to go for it, and it would have been pretty
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: easy because going for it in that scenario yielded a
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: win probability of eighty two percent, while punting would have
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: made it a fifty eight percent win probability, so still
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: better than half odds. But I'll take at two fifty
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: eight any day of the week. So the answer right
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: now seems pretty clear. You go for it. Jackson ran
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: for the first down, Ravens got the win. But according
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: to the data, it really shouldn't have even been that
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: much of a question because the decision to go for
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: it increase that win probability a d D by twenty
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: four percent, and win probability for going for it accounted
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: for the fact that the distance to a first down
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: was one point one yards in that situation versus the
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Chiefs defense. Now, the Ravens had a seventy five percent
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: chance of gaining enough yardage to confer dude, it's Lamar Jackson. Yeah,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: point one yards. They definitely had enough to gain that
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: yard is just with his legs. But when probability for
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: a punt decision was so low because of the fact
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: to put the ball into Patrick Mahomes hands, yeah, he's
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: pretty good. We can just punt on this whole idea
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: of like interceptions and some of the issues they've had
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: this year. Generally speaking, mahomes is money and we all
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: know that. So you can go down a list of
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: the specific variables for any decision tom remaining on the clock.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: You've got timeouts, fuel position, offense, and defensive personnel. You
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: have the efficiencies for both offense and defense. Add there's
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: a lot to wrap your head around, and the numbers
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: once again sort of give you the answer. Well, and
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: that's where the gray area comes in is when you
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: think about those variables because the statistical models and the
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: historical data don't necessarily account for every single one of
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: those things. But again, the point here is that it
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: is almost always smarter to go for it. Let's take
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: another instance from a high profile game this year. Tom
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: Brady's returned to Fox Borrow. It's his old team, the Patriots.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Now this one was a bit more difficult, but there
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: was indeed a clear optimal choice. With fifty nine seconds remaining,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: the Patriots are down by two. They're on Tampa's thirty
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: eight yard line. It's fourth and four. Now, essentially New
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: England is facing a fifty six yard field goal, or
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: they're going forward on fourth and four to try to
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: get their kicker Nick Fole closer. The Patriots decided to
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: go for the field goal. Folk misses. But did Bill
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Belichick make the right call there? According to Next Gen Stats,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: the play Mike was go for it. Let of course,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: exactly going for it would have yielded a nearly thirty
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: five percent chance of winning versus us to twenty four
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: percent chance by attempting that fifty six yard field goal,
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: So going for it gave you a ten percent better
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: chance of the outcome you wanted, which is a win.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: So when probability took into account the forty percent chance
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: of Folk making that fifty six yard field goal in
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: this situation, the rainy conditions, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, in the moment,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: so variables, variables, variables, variables, gut and the head coach
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: ultimately gets the call and fifty six that's not a
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: gimme either, So the variables once again, the weather for fault,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: the amount of time that would leave Brady of Folk
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: actually made the kick. No model is perfect. I want
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: to reiterate that point because everyone says oh, you've got
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: all these numbers, and when you're wrong, it's easy to
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: focus in on some of that stuff. What the models
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: do is help you make better decisions, more informed decisions.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: There is a psychological aspect for a coach who's deciding,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: you know what, I'm going to roll the dice, we're
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: gonna go for it on this fourth down, or we're
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: going to kick the field goal, and I'm going to
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: be the one that takes some of the backlash. And
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: good example of this, Bankle's head coach Jack Taylor was
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: actually asked about fourth downs this year and he said
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: the following, there's gonna be times it doesn't go our
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: way and you're gonna have to deal with the blowback.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: That's part of coaching. I'm comfortable with that. It's because
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: I know that the times you do do it successfully
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: and you go for it, those moms just get swept
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: under the rug. To me add and you've been around
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: a lot of these coaches as a pie, the psychological
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: effect of are my decisions going to be second guest
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: is a factor and that's why leaning on the numbers,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: when it's just raw data, actually I think can help
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: a lot of coaches you know what. And it's not
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: just that, Mike, it's also what is the final result
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: and how do you frame that? So at the margin,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: when you are more aggressive, you are more likely to win.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: But the downside to being aggressive is that you may
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: have more blowout losses. And I actually talked to one
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: of my friends who is one of the premier analytic
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: experts in this entire field. He has worked in both
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: baseball and football, so he's got some great contacts which
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: I will share later. But if you go for it
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: and you are not successful, you are more likely to
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: lose badly than just lose. And how do you handle that?
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: And let's use the Chargers. You're talking about Zach Taylor.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: He is one of the young coaches in the NFL.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Another young coach in the NFL who's been very aggressive
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: is Brandon Staley out with the Chargers. If we go
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: back to earlier this year, Chargers don't beat the Browns
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: if they're not aggressive and they're not going for it
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: on fourth down, so that's a win. But then the
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Chargers play the Ravens, they do go for it on
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: fourth down, they don't convert a couple of times, and
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: it's probably a closer game against the Ravens as opposed
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: to this whopping blowout had they not gone for it
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: on fourth down again, feast or famine, no risk it,
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: no biscuit. And so are you okay with the idea
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: of what looks like an ugly loss? If you believe
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: in your team that much, they you're maybe not facing
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: that ugly loss. And I don't know if that makes sense,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: but think about it this way, Mike. It's like the
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: quarterback at the end of a half who's willing to
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: throw a hail Mary. Maybe it's all right. So some
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks are like, well, I don't care. I'm going to
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: give it a shot. And there are other quarterbacks that
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: are like, yeah, but there's a really good shot that
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: this ball gets picked off and I don't want that
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: on my stat line. So do you worry about the
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: ugliness of a blowout loss or do you say I
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: don't care. All we care about right now are ws
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: and we need to do everything we can to get
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: a w Risk adverse is what some of those quarterbacks
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: maybe are in some of those situations. What the numbers
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: don't indicate as well. Adity is what it means, and
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: the magnitude. How do you measure the confidence that your
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: coach has when your team goes for it on fourth
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: down and is able to convert and then you win
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: that football game. How does that momentum change a locker room?
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: That's something that next gen stats can't cook up formula four.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Although I'm sure there's a data scientist right now who says, no, no, no,
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: I got you on that one. I'll figure that one out. No,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: But that's actually a very very fair point. This is
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: that idea of success begets success. A few years ago,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: when the NFL moved the p A T line back,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin all of a sudden kept going for the
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: two point conversion as opposed to kicking the p A T.
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: And I remember, I have a very good friend, he's
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: still my friend, Ken Carmen, who is a radio host
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: in Cleveland, and at one point during one game he
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: messaged me and he said, why does Tomlin keep going
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: for it? And my response was because he can. And
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: the issue was, you know, like, let's say when you
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: move the p T back, maybe the success rate drops
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: from to and maybe your two point conversion success rate
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: is fift. The big point in all of this as
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: opposed to doing some fancy math formula. Is that the
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Steelers were actually really good at it, and so because
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: they were successful early on at converting those two point plays,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin just stuck with it. You go back to
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: a year ago, the Steelers almost never went for it
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: on fourth and one, even though the models, the mathematical models,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: that statistical model kept saying go for it, because they
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: couldn't convert. The Dealers were terrible on third and one,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: and they were terrible on fourth and one. So who
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: cares what the math says at that point? And that's
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: once again that human judgment that's hard for just artificial
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: intelligence to come up with a solution for. This podcast
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: is sponsored by Kindrel. Kindrel Designs builds, manages, and modernizes
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: the mission critical technology systems that the world depends on
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: every day. Working side by side with their customers, they
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  Speaker 1: sponsored by Kendrell. Kindrell Designs builds, manages, and modernizes the
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: mission critical technology systems that the world depends on every day.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: Working side by side with their customers, they imagine things differently.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: By forging new strategic partnerships, they unlock new possibilities, creating
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: a world powered by healthy digital systems, alive with opportunity,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: oxygen to innovation, and energy to change the world. Schindrel
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: the heart of progress. And I will tell you this
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: to Mike that every single analyst that I have spoken to,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: you know, analysts are more aggressive than head coaches are.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: And that's because they look at the math, they look
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: at the data, they look at historical trends, what's generally
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: happened head coaches. Some of it, I think is a
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: lack of understanding of the math and the percentages, and hey,
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: is somebody who's not great at math. The percentages can
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: sometimes make my eyes roll in the back of my
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: head as well. I think a lot of it also
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: is wanting to do things the way that things have
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: always been done and so what's familiar to you, especially
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: if you've been a coach for a long time in
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: the NFL, that might be part of it. And I
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: think that the impact of what you see around you,
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: you know, like you were talking earlier Mike about how
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: we've seen the numbers increase every year team is being
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: more aggressive. I go back to that Philadelphia Eagles super
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: Bowl win. Philly really was very effective in being aggressive
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: and going forward on fourth down, and at least for
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: me anecdotally speaking, I think that that sort of represents
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: kind of a change in play. Look, I think you
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: can even go back to Billy being with you know,
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: moneyball in the Oakland, a sort of sending the table
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: for organizations to embrace it, because I think the observation
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: that you just came up with, which is we've always
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: done it this way, is the easy thing to fall
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: back on. And I think once one or two coaches,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: slash teams organizations have success doing it a different way,
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: then everyone wants to get onto that train and roll
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: with it. And I think from an analytic standpoint, people
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: now are following suit. Yeah, but you know, I do
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: want to bring up a point that my friend said,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: my buddy said to me, since you're mentioning Billy Bean,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: that I think is really tremendous as related to the NFL.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: You know, the influence of analytics on baseball, Like, let's
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: say the shift in general has maybe esthetically made baseball
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: a tad less pleasing. You know, they're more hits, they're
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: more walks, there's more home runs, but again because the shift,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: there's not as many hits. But look at football, the
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: influence of analytics, the idea of going for it has
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: actually made the football games better. You've got crowd cheering
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: for it, you have fans yelling go for it. You
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: have this excitement of sort of taking on a risk,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: being aggressive the offense, staying on the field. All of
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: that I think has actually you know, these are sort
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: of high leverage plays. They make the game more fun
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: and more interesting. So for football, it's really worked. It's
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: a great call, especially when you think about watching game
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: shows on television and the contestants already got you know,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: a decent amount of winnings. Exactly, we're all saying no, like,
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: let it ride, let it ride. Let's try to, you know,
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: try to. You know, there's a fun aspect to and
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: I think in these fourth down situations there's something to
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: be said for uh A D D. One other thing
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: I want to bring up to you, and I know
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: there's no way to possibly answer this question. But as
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: I'm listening to some of the things that you're saying
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: from your your conversations with people around the league and
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: data people, it also makes me wonder, from a human
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: element standpoint, if we're playing backyard football and there was
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: no media, press conferences when the game was done, There
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: weren't millions of dollars on the line. There weren't you know,
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: tens of thousands of fans you know, in the stadium,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: millions more just watching all of these games. If that
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: would change the decision making process and you weren't just
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: if you were a coach of a backyard football team.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: I get we didn't have coaches playing in the backyard,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: but roll with me here, do you change your philosophy
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: and some of those moments, because it does bring you
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: back to just being a kid and just trying to
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: figure out the best way to win without any of
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: the other variables that come with being on the sidelines
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: inside an NFL stadium. Do you have an offensive line
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: in your backyard? Because honestly, I think that that's the
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: biggest predictor of success right there. Do you believe in
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: your line? But again, I'm an old school football person,
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: who believes that everything starts up front. Can your line
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: get and yeah enough to go for it? I think
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: that NFL coaches largely. I mean, gosh, I'm running through
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: thirty two names right now, and who I personally know
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: and who not. I don't think that media scrutiny or
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: fans scrutiny is really the driver right there. I think
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: it has a lot more to do. You know, like
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: how do you play poker? And it's how much faith
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: do you have in your team? And are you moving
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: the ball right now or not? And I brought this
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: up earlier because again, I was at this insane Steelers
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: Lions tip over time tie game in the freezing rain,
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: and there were two situations where I thought the Lions
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: absolutely shouldn't go for it, and they didn't. But I mean,
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: neither quarterback was really moving the ball. They were very
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: bad conditions. I mean, anybody could sit here and say, Okay,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: everything shades towards punting as opposed to going for it.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: I just think a lot of it has to do
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: with what your nature is, and you know, what are
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: you willing to risk? How much do you believe in
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: your team? What are you seeing so far? And like
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: you said, you know, what do your players want to
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: do if you believe in giving your players ownership over
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: those decisions? Add I'm with you. I know it's the
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: point that we brought up earlier. But what those fourth
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: down those successful fourth down conversions? What does that due
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: to your sideline? What does it due to your locker room?
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: Hard for the metrics to really gauge some of that stuff.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: But you mentioned Brandon Staley, Um, he's on this list
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: the top five guys in the NFL optimal fourth down
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: decision percentages. Uh, and the guys who have done at
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: the best Kevin Stevansky number one, twelve out of thirteen.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: I will take that, Brandon Staley number two out of fourteen,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: good for seventy one percent. Mc fangio with the Broncos
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: number three, five out of seven, Cliff Kingsbury four out
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: of six, and Mike McCarthy rounding at the top five
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: eleven for eighteen in those situations. But which coach do
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: you wish went for maybe on fourth down as your coach?
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: We'd love to hear from you. Use that hashtag NFL
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: explained a d D. It was awesome doing this. I
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: actually love this show because I can, you know, dork
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: out on the numbers a little bit, but I think
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: the point that you brought up a few minutes ago
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: is the best one of the entire show. Going forward
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: and fourth down helps the excitement and I think helps
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: the game of football. I cannot agree more. It is
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: always fun, Mike. I can't wait for next week. Like
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: you said, we would love, love, love to hear from
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: all of you, so send us your burning questions. And
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: for now, my friend Mike and all of our listeners,
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: that is going for it on fourth down, explained, m
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