Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Divisional Round Picks With Chad and Blackjack
Transcript
- 0:08Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites. I am Chad Moment of the
- 0:12Speaker 1: Action Network. This was the Super Contest edition. Now it's
- 0:16Speaker 1: just the black Jack and Chad entertain you and each
- 0:19Speaker 1: other with coming up with five picks that we're going
- 0:23Speaker 1: to agree on for this weekend. Uh, and we're gonna
- 0:26Speaker 1: try to do it without hating on each other before,
- 0:31Speaker 1: because you are the worst person at taking direction I
- 0:35Speaker 1: have ever met in my life. Not five minutes before
- 0:39Speaker 1: this show starts, we all decide, you me, our producer.
- 0:43Speaker 1: We're not gonna say five picks. We're just gonna see
- 0:46Speaker 1: what we agree on. And what's the first word out
- 0:49Speaker 1: of your mouth where black Jack and I agree on
- 0:52Speaker 1: five picks? I mean, how many times I'm distracted by
- 0:57Speaker 1: your shirt? Yeah, because it's beauty full and you're wearing
- 1:01Speaker 1: yet another black fleece pull over. I'm distracted by the
- 1:07Speaker 1: amount of chess hair that is coming out. You think
- 1:09Speaker 1: that's a lot, sweetheart, I can make it more, all right, honest,
- 1:15Speaker 1: this is honest to god. This is like like I
- 1:18Speaker 1: feel like I'm getting Miami Vice Anniversary and like Don Johnson,
- 1:27Speaker 1: you know, forty pounds heavier in the same shirt. I
- 1:32Speaker 1: don't know that Don Johnson really went for the patterns
- 1:34Speaker 1: like this. Who's more of a straight pastel neon kind
- 1:38Speaker 1: of guy. It's got my purple and Paisley Paisley shirt.
- 1:44Speaker 1: That's right. Listen, don't forget everybody. You can get this
- 1:48Speaker 1: live on January six pm at Folies in Manhattan. We're
- 1:53Speaker 1: doing a live podcast. It's gonna be me, It's gonna
- 1:56Speaker 1: be black Jack, who's been blabbering. It's gonna be Paula Duca.
- 1:59Speaker 1: It's gonna Jeff Schwartz. Blackjack and Paula Duke are going
- 2:02Speaker 1: to get behind the bar. Scooch is gonna make an appearance. Um,
- 2:06Speaker 1: I've promote this. We already sold out. It's free tickets,
- 2:09Speaker 1: but we have a lot of a certain number of
- 2:11Speaker 1: sign ups. We already had the a lot of number
- 2:13Speaker 1: of sign ups. We had to open it up so um,
- 2:16Speaker 1: more people can come sign up because we had more
- 2:18Speaker 1: demand than we had actually expected, so we have more
- 2:22Speaker 1: room with space. Go sign up. Go to Action network
- 2:26Speaker 1: dot com slash Favorites, go sign up. Uh, so you
- 2:30Speaker 1: can see Blackjack and Me and all the other boys
- 2:32Speaker 1: from the Favorites, plus some special guests, surprise guests. Guess
- 2:38Speaker 1: Who's back. Guess who's back after an extended vacation. Who's
- 2:41Speaker 1: back Chat Georgina. Happy New Year, Fellas. Thank you for
- 2:46Speaker 1: the lovely gifts you sent me. Georgina. Listen, do you
- 2:50Speaker 1: have an iTunes review for US? iTunes review subject the
- 2:55Speaker 1: tension is electric user tip City. Both gentlemen are dynamite handicappers.
- 3:03Speaker 1: As an added bonus, the listeners are subjected to the
- 3:06Speaker 1: will they won't they tension between Chat and black Jack. Plus,
- 3:11Speaker 1: Georgina has a great voice. Nice one to the city appreciated.
- 3:16Speaker 1: This is one of the first reviews that didn't bash
- 3:19Speaker 1: you specifically come after me. Also, the will they are
- 3:25Speaker 1: won't they drama? While I can't disagree with it, I
- 3:29Speaker 1: also don't know what exactly it is will we or
- 3:32Speaker 1: will we what? But also I do understand that it's there.
- 3:35Speaker 1: It's palpable. Yeah, it is palpable. Um. There was actually
- 3:39Speaker 1: uh a comment towards me on Twitter, you know, because
- 3:44Speaker 1: we did a podcast that came out on Wednesday with
- 3:46Speaker 1: Scooch and we talked a lot about life in the
- 3:49Speaker 1: beginning of and that's what I put on one at
- 3:53Speaker 1: naptime and so one one listener ironic that you said
- 3:57Speaker 1: it like that. One listener said I, they would just
- 4:00Speaker 1: get to the picks, and I wrote it was ironic
- 4:03Speaker 1: because the beginning of the podcast was about how this
- 4:05Speaker 1: was going to be the year of kindness. Yeah. I know,
- 4:09Speaker 1: I know you're trying the Year of Kindness thing, which
- 4:11Speaker 1: is great. But man, when you have an open microphone
- 4:15Speaker 1: and nobody to stop you on the other side, because
- 4:17Speaker 1: Scooch is too nice, He's just too nice, he'll let
- 4:20Speaker 1: you go. You will just ramble on and on about
- 4:23Speaker 1: some crap like that. Scooch is like the nicest guy
- 4:29Speaker 1: like he. You'll go on one of these tirades about
- 4:33Speaker 1: just idiotic nonsense and Scoochs will be like, yeah, yeah,
- 4:38Speaker 1: that's uh, that's interesting. He's just too nice. What did
- 4:42Speaker 1: you think was idiotic about what I said? You don't
- 4:45Speaker 1: think it should be the year of kindness. You don't
- 4:47Speaker 1: think that we should all pledge to live up to
- 4:50Speaker 1: our potential this year and every year. You don't think
- 4:53Speaker 1: we should move the needle. You don't think I'm walking
- 4:55Speaker 1: over here from our office thinking I'm doing enough to
- 4:59Speaker 1: move the needle today. You don't think any of that
- 5:01Speaker 1: is important. If if that's what you're thinking, you need
- 5:04Speaker 1: to try thinking either a little harder or a little differently. No,
- 5:08Speaker 1: on the way over here. Actually I just I recounted
- 5:10Speaker 1: my entire workout for you. You did and then shadow
- 5:13Speaker 1: boxed in the elevator. So I don't think moving the
- 5:16Speaker 1: needle was really on your mind. It was when we
- 5:19Speaker 1: got in the elevator, when we turned the corner on
- 5:22Speaker 1: off on Madison. I thought to myself, am I moving
- 5:25Speaker 1: the needle today? The answer is no, so far, the
- 5:27Speaker 1: answer is no. How do you know what I've done
- 5:29Speaker 1: from because you told me your entire routine? I know,
- 5:33Speaker 1: but I got to the office early, like I was
- 5:35Speaker 1: sending emails, was talking to people. I'm sure those emails
- 5:38Speaker 1: were so important. I'm running a company, man. We got
- 5:46Speaker 1: some games, yeah we do. We got like divisional playoffs
- 5:49Speaker 1: going on. This is my favorite week of the playoffs.
- 5:53Speaker 1: Last week, by the way, um, we liked the Texans.
- 5:56Speaker 1: Didn't win that one, but we did like the Cowboys.
- 5:59Speaker 1: We did the Chargers. We did like the Eagles at
- 6:03Speaker 1: plus five, although I will remind you that I ended
- 6:07Speaker 1: up betting the Bears at minus three and a half
- 6:09Speaker 1: on the live betting. We didn't like the Eagles. I
- 6:13Speaker 1: like the Eagles. You were sitting here being the Chicago
- 6:17Speaker 1: homer that you are telling me how the Bears defense
- 6:23Speaker 1: was so great and Miss Robiski, Oh he's got it
- 6:25Speaker 1: all figured out. Yeah, that worked out defense doesn't win
- 6:29Speaker 1: the NFL anymore. Mr Robisky isn't the reason they lost
- 6:31Speaker 1: that game. Matt Nagy is the reason they lost that game.
- 6:33Speaker 1: I don't need to rehash all the ways in niche
- 6:36Speaker 1: in which that game or your defense couldn't get a
- 6:38Speaker 1: stop in the fourth quarter when it mattered. Disappointing that
- 6:42Speaker 1: vaunted Bears defense. Yeah did not go well, Nope, sure didn't.
- 6:49Speaker 1: But and then we liked Clempson on the money on
- 6:51Speaker 1: the money line at plus one went one of us
- 6:56Speaker 1: actually bet that game. I forgot. You forgot to bet
- 7:00Speaker 1: the two to one dog that we took on our show.
- 7:04Speaker 1: You forgot, I did? How do you do that? This
- 7:09Speaker 1: wasn't Western Michigan versus Southern Illinois like I was a
- 7:12Speaker 1: National championship game. I'll tell you exactly what happened. I'll
- 7:15Speaker 1: tell you exactly what happened, like over the weekend? Ship
- 7:23Speaker 1: can we get Scooch? Over the weekend? I had to
- 7:26Speaker 1: go to Staten Island. We visit our in laws, my
- 7:28Speaker 1: in laws, right. I told you you'd get to hear
- 7:30Speaker 1: about this. I just didn't think it would be on auto.
- 7:32Speaker 1: And so I was there all day and then we
- 7:35Speaker 1: had to stop somewhere in the city on the way back.
- 7:37Speaker 1: I didn't get home until really late. And then on
- 7:39Speaker 1: Sunday I was focused on the football games. And then
- 7:42Speaker 1: Monday I was working all day and then we ended
- 7:44Speaker 1: up having a meeting, a senior staff meeting, because you know,
- 7:47Speaker 1: I'm senior staff, and uh, it was like everyone senior staff.
- 7:52Speaker 1: It was a two hour meeting, five thirty, seven thirty,
- 7:55Speaker 1: and then like as soon it was over, I like
- 7:57Speaker 1: had to do about eight million things and I just
- 7:59Speaker 1: all of a sudden realized the games and I gotta
- 8:00Speaker 1: sit down to watch it. And I never bet it.
- 8:02Speaker 1: You could alive bet it. I live betted as well.
- 8:05Speaker 1: I doubled on that. Georgina, take us out of this
- 8:08Speaker 1: death spiral of a conversation Indianapolas at Kansas City Chiefs
- 8:13Speaker 1: by five and a half, Kansas City, Kansas City. You you,
- 8:19Speaker 1: if you take the Colts here, you are falling into
- 8:22Speaker 1: a trap. The Indianapolis Colts have had a nice year.
- 8:25Speaker 1: They've overachieved. That's great, Okay, Andrew Luck is back, he's
- 8:29Speaker 1: playing fantastic, wonderful, But that roster is still not anywhere
- 8:37Speaker 1: near as talented as Kansas City's. Okay, it's not Look
- 8:41Speaker 1: at the skill position players on offense. They do not
- 8:45Speaker 1: have the offense to hang with Kansas City. People are
- 8:48Speaker 1: forgetting how good Kansas City was and they're overvaluing Indianapolis.
- 8:54Speaker 1: That's why you've got reverse line movement on this game.
- 8:57Speaker 1: Everyone in the damn world is betting Indianapolis and the
- 9:00Speaker 1: number has gone up. Okay, Kansas City is the play here,
- 9:05Speaker 1: lay the five and a half. I don't want to
- 9:07Speaker 1: hear about what the Chiefs did in in the playoffs
- 9:10Speaker 1: at home with Joe Montana or Elvis Gerback under center.
- 9:14Speaker 1: I don't care. I don't care about last year. This
- 9:19Speaker 1: is a different team with different players. They have a
- 9:23Speaker 1: different offense. Kansas City minus the points. All right. So
- 9:28Speaker 1: just to back up some of your claims here, I
- 9:30Speaker 1: want to fact check you. Uh, of the money is
- 9:35Speaker 1: coming in on the Indianapolis Colts. I'm looking at the
- 9:38Speaker 1: Action Network app. It's a free app you can download
- 9:40Speaker 1: and get all this information of the bets are coming
- 9:44Speaker 1: in on the Indianapolis Colts. Okay, so you're right, it's
- 9:49Speaker 1: a reverse line move here. I know that's why I
- 9:52Speaker 1: said it. And what does that generally tell you in gambling? Chad,
- 10:00Speaker 1: I'm struggling with this one. Mm hmm. That tells you
- 10:03Speaker 1: to beout. Kansas City, Vegas wants to take all the
- 10:07Speaker 1: Colts money they can take, keep giving it. So a
- 10:10Speaker 1: couple of things, A couple of things on this first
- 10:15Speaker 1: and foremost. The Chiefs defense, defense doesn't matter, is really bad.
- 10:23Speaker 1: You're not wrong, but come playoff time, I'm not talking
- 10:26Speaker 1: about winning. Listen, I'm not Can I finish in the playoffs? One?
- 10:29Speaker 1: Can I finish? I let you speak. You were loud,
- 10:34Speaker 1: you were louder than your shirt. Okay, so what can
- 10:38Speaker 1: I finish? I don't know. Can you if you don't
- 10:42Speaker 1: stop talking, just stop talking. We'll see. The Chiefs defense
- 10:50Speaker 1: is really bad. This game has Kansas City by ten points,
- 10:57Speaker 1: Kansas City by twelve points late into the game, and
- 11:02Speaker 1: then Andrew Luck does what he does and makes a
- 11:06Speaker 1: furious comeback. I'm not betting money line here on the Colts.
- 11:10Speaker 1: I'm not buying into the idea that they're a team
- 11:13Speaker 1: that is going to beat the Chiefs. I am buying
- 11:16Speaker 1: into the idea that they are a dangerous team late
- 11:19Speaker 1: in the game when they are down by a lot.
- 11:22Speaker 1: And Andrew Luck is the kind of quarterback who consistently
- 11:25Speaker 1: can bring his team back, especially like long drives, when
- 11:30Speaker 1: things seem completely hopeless. The guy is a master at this.
- 11:35Speaker 1: So if you're telling me I've got five and a half,
- 11:37Speaker 1: what I'm telling you is that I'm probably gonna wait
- 11:40Speaker 1: because I could see this line going up and I
- 11:43Speaker 1: want to get the Colt is a big a number,
- 11:45Speaker 1: as at big a number as I possibly care. The
- 11:47Speaker 1: only number I would like the Colts out of seven.
- 11:53Speaker 1: Anything under seven, I like Kansas City. Kansas City wins
- 11:56Speaker 1: this game by morning a touchdown. You know what, I
- 12:01Speaker 1: don't really know what the construct of our show is
- 12:03Speaker 1: right now, but I will tell you that was a
- 12:08Speaker 1: great note to drop to the audience. I'm glad you
- 12:11Speaker 1: guys are listening. You don't really know what this is.
- 12:14Speaker 1: I feel like we we sort of had gone on
- 12:17Speaker 1: a path where we were gonna try to agree on
- 12:18Speaker 1: some games to bet them together. That's the construct, Okay,
- 12:24Speaker 1: I would like to bet you in this game? You
- 12:26Speaker 1: want to bet straight up, just head to head. Yeah,
- 12:28Speaker 1: because I I have decided to like the Colts at
- 12:30Speaker 1: five and half. Aren't you want to bet a hundred bucks?
- 12:32Speaker 1: I'm sure let's do it all right? Uh? Dallas? Wait? Wait, Regina,
- 12:41Speaker 1: you're up? Dallas at Los Angeles Rams los Angeles by seven.
- 12:48Speaker 1: I Uh, I don't like this game. Um, but I
- 12:53Speaker 1: like Dallas a little bit at this number. I think
- 12:56Speaker 1: that the Rams. You look back at the Rams over
- 12:58Speaker 1: the season, they struggled against the spread. Good team, not
- 13:02Speaker 1: great against the spread. Dallas has shown they can run
- 13:06Speaker 1: the ball and play defense, which what does that usually do?
- 13:09Speaker 1: Usually limits opponents possessions, slows the game down seven points.
- 13:14Speaker 1: I bet Dallas at the seven. I took the seven.
- 13:17Speaker 1: I don't love it. I don't feel great about it,
- 13:19Speaker 1: but I think Dallas is the right side defense front
- 13:26Speaker 1: seven Ezekiel, Elliott, Marii Cooper. Those have all been highlights
- 13:33Speaker 1: for the Cowboys. We were on the Cowboys last week.
- 13:35Speaker 1: We liked him in minus one and a half. We
- 13:37Speaker 1: bet them. Um, I agree with you. We're gonna side
- 13:42Speaker 1: on this together. This is an interesting number to me.
- 13:47Speaker 1: I think bookmakers got it wrong, and I think part
- 13:49Speaker 1: of the problem is that bookmakers are slow. You know,
- 13:53Speaker 1: there's been a big conversation the past couple of years
- 13:57Speaker 1: Home the underdogs are fourteen and one against the spread
- 14:02Speaker 1: in the playoffs, so I forgot how long that goes back.
- 14:05Speaker 1: Go follow Action Network at Action Network HQ on Twitter
- 14:08Speaker 1: and you'll see that stat um. It's been really interesting,
- 14:12Speaker 1: and I think part of the problem is that bookmakers
- 14:16Speaker 1: have a really hard time making adjustments four teams late
- 14:20Speaker 1: in the year because they don't like to over adjust.
- 14:23Speaker 1: And Scooch and I have talked about this a lot.
- 14:25Speaker 1: They don't like to over adjust. They're making their adjustments
- 14:27Speaker 1: in very small increments over three to four weeks of
- 14:31Speaker 1: a season. So you get to the end of the
- 14:32Speaker 1: year and it's the teams like the Eagles and the
- 14:35Speaker 1: teams like the Cowboys where you haven't really figured out
- 14:38Speaker 1: who they are, and then they get strong at the
- 14:40Speaker 1: end of the year and all of a sudden, they
- 14:41Speaker 1: are a different team than they were in the beginning,
- 14:43Speaker 1: and bookmakers haven't made that adjustment yet because they do
- 14:46Speaker 1: it just too much. Then it throws their lines out
- 14:48Speaker 1: of whack and like then they get caught sort of
- 14:50Speaker 1: in no man's land and having to move lines too much,
- 14:53Speaker 1: and then they get middled by people like the Middle Monster,
- 14:57Speaker 1: right right, So what I think here is that bookmakers
- 15:01Speaker 1: haven't adjusted the Cowboys enough. Yeah, I mean, I think
- 15:05Speaker 1: you're right. I think that's been the case largely since
- 15:08Speaker 1: the Marii Cooper trade. They've gotten better and better. The
- 15:12Speaker 1: offense just just works a lot better. I mean, even
- 15:15Speaker 1: even with the the detriment that is Jason Garrett, Um,
- 15:20Speaker 1: they're just playing a lot better. Dak Prescott's used his
- 15:22Speaker 1: tight ends more, He's used all of his receivers more.
- 15:26Speaker 1: They've been had, They've had a little bit of of
- 15:28Speaker 1: explosiveness down the field, and their defense plays really well.
- 15:32Speaker 1: So um plus seven. Yeah, I'm on Dallas, but I'm
- 15:37Speaker 1: I'm kind of holding my nose while I do it.
- 15:40Speaker 1: I don't know why you're holding your nose, Because the
- 15:42Speaker 1: Rams are one of those teams that could come out
- 15:44Speaker 1: and put thirty eight on the board and the first
- 15:47Speaker 1: quarter could be over and they could be up seventeen nothing.
- 15:50Speaker 1: I mean, they could. It's they're they're one of those
- 15:52Speaker 1: teams with a week off. Sean McVeigh could come out
- 15:55Speaker 1: with some game plan that's a bunch of ship we've
- 15:57Speaker 1: never seen before, and the Rams they just run away
- 16:00Speaker 1: with it. I don't know. I mean, maybe we get
- 16:02Speaker 1: the Cowboys of Week seven and they come out and
- 16:05Speaker 1: lay an egg. I don't know. By the way, fully
- 16:08Speaker 1: trust out the Rams could do that every week, of course,
- 16:11Speaker 1: and they didn't do that at all in the second
- 16:13Speaker 1: half of the sea. But they covered one in the
- 16:17Speaker 1: second half of the season, and that was against the
- 16:19Speaker 1: Detroit Lions in Detroit and the who did you bet
- 16:23Speaker 1: in that game? Yeah you did, right, But the Lions
- 16:26Speaker 1: like half cover that game? Look like I lost some games?
- 16:33Speaker 1: What do you want me to do? Like? I won
- 16:35Speaker 1: more than I lost. Look at my record in the app.
- 16:38Speaker 1: Go download the Free Action Network Gap you can see
- 16:40Speaker 1: my record. I just remember you wanted the Lions in
- 16:46Speaker 1: that game. Told me you had a Pro Bowl quarterback
- 16:48Speaker 1: in Matt Stafford. He was in the Pro Bows, wasn't he.
- 16:54Speaker 1: You and Jeff Schwartz should have that conversation. Jeff Schwartz says,
- 16:57Speaker 1: Matt Stafford's a Hall of Fame famer, and I think
- 17:01Speaker 1: that's ridiculous, It's insane. It is so ludicrous. He's like
- 17:06Speaker 1: the Kelly Trapuca of the NFL. Kelly Tropuka like who
- 17:10Speaker 1: played in the NBA in the eighties, put up great numbers.
- 17:14Speaker 1: It's a product of the offense. Alright, alright, Daniel Danie
- 17:18Speaker 1: will make the Hall of Fame. You're really showing your
- 17:20Speaker 1: age here. This morning I gave a speech to everybody
- 17:24Speaker 1: in the office about Perry Think. Okay, Um, most of
- 17:28Speaker 1: the people you gave that speech to still live with
- 17:30Speaker 1: their parents. I know, I know. That's why I felt
- 17:34Speaker 1: like an idiot when I was giving it. Okay, all right, next,
- 17:39Speaker 1: so we agree on this, right Dallas? Yeah, okay, great
- 17:45Speaker 1: Los Angeles charges and New England Patriots by four? So
- 17:51Speaker 1: what are the chances of Los Angeles Los Angeles super Bowl?
- 17:55Speaker 1: You know what's weird? I hadn't even thought of that.
- 17:59Speaker 1: I hadn't even because I constantly forget the charges are
- 18:02Speaker 1: in l A. I still called it, called them San
- 18:05Speaker 1: Diego today talking to Scott, I I don't know what
- 18:08Speaker 1: it is. The rams, who do you want to tell people?
- 18:11Speaker 1: Scott Miller at our office, the man who really keeps
- 18:14Speaker 1: things running while you're screwing around. Um, I don't know why,
- 18:19Speaker 1: but the rams like stuck like they're the l A Rams,
- 18:22Speaker 1: but the Charges are still San Diego to me, it's weird.
- 18:26Speaker 1: It's like a mental block. Um hadn't considered the possibility
- 18:30Speaker 1: of an All l A super Bowl. You're prone to those, Um,
- 18:35Speaker 1: But I love the Chargers in this game. Suck at
- 18:39Speaker 1: New England. Why tell me why? Because the Chargers are
- 18:43Speaker 1: built for this game. They are built for this game.
- 18:46Speaker 1: The Chargers have a pass rush that gets home. Okay,
- 18:50Speaker 1: they struggle with a with a guy like Lamar Jackson
- 18:53Speaker 1: last week who can move around and evade that pass rush.
- 18:56Speaker 1: But you got You've got guys there who can get
- 18:59Speaker 1: home him in a big way in Melvin Ingram and
- 19:02Speaker 1: Joey Bosa. Right, so Brady is gonna have a tough time. Also,
- 19:06Speaker 1: Brady is struggling right now because the Patriots run game
- 19:10Speaker 1: is awful. It's like in the NFL. Weapons wise, Gronkowski
- 19:15Speaker 1: looks like he's fifty three years old trying to run routes.
- 19:18Speaker 1: It's painful to watch. It's Julian Edelman and nothing else.
- 19:24Speaker 1: Josh Gordon is gone. The weapons are just not there,
- 19:28Speaker 1: which means it takes more time for Brady to get
- 19:31Speaker 1: the ball out of his hand. More time for pressure
- 19:33Speaker 1: to get there and those intermediate routes that Edelman loves
- 19:37Speaker 1: to run. The Chargers defend that best. The thing where
- 19:41Speaker 1: that defense is susceptible is on deep throws and the
- 19:44Speaker 1: Patriots thrown of a deep threat they don't have one.
- 19:48Speaker 1: And then you look at the way the Charges have
- 19:50Speaker 1: played on offense. Listen, you know what it takes to
- 19:53Speaker 1: beat to beat the Patriots. It's gonna be close. It's
- 19:55Speaker 1: gonna be a dog fight. This has been the best
- 19:57Speaker 1: season in Philip Rivers's career. He's got the most talented
- 20:00Speaker 1: players he's ever had around him, top to bottom on
- 20:03Speaker 1: that roster. Absolutely the best team he's had. I think
- 20:08Speaker 1: they go in there and they win outright. This is
- 20:12Speaker 1: so interesting, right, I agree with everything you've said. We
- 20:17Speaker 1: have loved the Chargers this year. We have played them
- 20:20Speaker 1: so much. We were both on the Chargers on the
- 20:23Speaker 1: money line last weekend, if I correct, If I'm correct?
- 20:25Speaker 1: Am I correct? You are correct about us being on
- 20:28Speaker 1: them last week? What do you mean We've been on
- 20:30Speaker 1: him all year. We've got the Chargers once this season.
- 20:34Speaker 1: I've bet him a lot this year. Okay, Well, on
- 20:36Speaker 1: this show, we took them one time and they didn't cover.
- 20:42Speaker 1: Now that was the Broncos. Yeah, we took a minus
- 20:45Speaker 1: seven against the Broncos and they did not come. I
- 20:47Speaker 1: bet the l A Chargers before last week two times
- 20:50Speaker 1: all season. I bet him a bunch this year. You
- 20:52Speaker 1: can go to the Action Network gap and you can
- 20:54Speaker 1: check it out. But having said that, this is a
- 20:57Speaker 1: perfect spot for them. So what's also interesting is all
- 21:01Speaker 1: the reasons you gave are the reasons why, the reasons
- 21:04Speaker 1: I would normally give as to why you would like
- 21:07Speaker 1: an under dog. I think I like the Patriots. This
- 21:13Speaker 1: is a fucking joke, right, It's a joke. I'm having
- 21:19Speaker 1: a hard look. Here's the thing right now, let me
- 21:24Speaker 1: look at the app here. Um, seventy of the money
- 21:30Speaker 1: of the tickets are on the Chargers. What does that
- 21:33Speaker 1: tell you? This percentages? Yeah, it tells me the same
- 21:36Speaker 1: things that, Uh, there's no reverse movement in this lines
- 21:40Speaker 1: moving the right way, lines moving with the money. Yeah,
- 21:46Speaker 1: that's not what I was gonna say. So what's it
- 21:49Speaker 1: telling you? Tell me that sometimes I like to go
- 21:53Speaker 1: against the public. I want to favor the public. And
- 21:58Speaker 1: I've got a short line, okay, and I've got a
- 22:04Speaker 1: home team that has proven. And I'm not a fan
- 22:08Speaker 1: of precedent as prologue when it comes to betting, but
- 22:12Speaker 1: this is a hard one to ignore. In Foxboro in
- 22:17Speaker 1: the playoffs off of by Tom Brady, Bill Belichick short
- 22:22Speaker 1: home favorite, potentially three to five inches of snow. Give
- 22:27Speaker 1: a damn about snow. All of these factors are kicking
- 22:30Speaker 1: at and I'm thinking Tom Brady's not tom Brady. Listen,
- 22:35Speaker 1: nobody bet the Patriots more than I did this year, nobody,
- 22:38Speaker 1: But Tom Brady's not Tom Brady anymore. You can't tell me.
- 22:42Speaker 1: Is you watch the same games I did? You can't
- 22:45Speaker 1: tell me tom Brady looks the same way he used
- 22:48Speaker 1: to look. He doesn't. He doesn't have the weapons around him.
- 22:51Speaker 1: He doesn't have the arm strength anymore. He's not the
- 22:54Speaker 1: same dude. Phil Rivers, on the other hand, just impregnated
- 23:01Speaker 1: his wife for the ninth time. That's insane, bout showing
- 23:07Speaker 1: the world what kind of man he is. Fucking use
- 23:11Speaker 1: some birth control, No, it doesn't matter if you use
- 23:15Speaker 1: birth control. That man's around. He looks at you the
- 23:17Speaker 1: wrong way. You get pregnant that listen. I have two
- 23:21Speaker 1: kids and we're exhausted, and they we barely even talk
- 23:25Speaker 1: to these kids anymore. He's working on nine. He's got
- 23:29Speaker 1: nine kids, and I think they're all younger than my kids.
- 23:33Speaker 1: Young kids. Yeah, it's been like nine kids in like
- 23:36Speaker 1: thirteen years. It's like it's almost an impossibility. But I mean,
- 23:43Speaker 1: his poor wife has been pregnant for like so think
- 23:45Speaker 1: about that almost twenty years. About that, all right? Yeah,
- 23:48Speaker 1: her natural state is just pregnant. You're concerned about three
- 23:55Speaker 1: to five inches of snow. Philip Rivers has nine kids
- 23:58Speaker 1: at home. Do you think he's cancerned about the snow.
- 24:02Speaker 1: There's also a reason why the charges have played well
- 24:04Speaker 1: on the road. Gets him the hell out of the house. Yeah,
- 24:07Speaker 1: he's happy to be on the road. They are nine
- 24:10Speaker 1: and oh outside of Los Angeles. Think about that for
- 24:13Speaker 1: a minute. He's just happy to be in a hotel
- 24:16Speaker 1: for a couple of days. See, I think phil you know,
- 24:21Speaker 1: there's plenty of people who like who are like me
- 24:23Speaker 1: about parenting. Uh. I think Philip Rivers is the opposite.
- 24:27Speaker 1: I actually think he loves the warm embrace of his family,
- 24:32Speaker 1: and when he gets home, I feel like, oh, Daddy,
- 24:35Speaker 1: you know I love you. It's like, that's not what
- 24:37Speaker 1: I get and I feel like Philip Rivers strikes you
- 24:40Speaker 1: as the warm, fuzzy type. Really, I think guy walks
- 24:43Speaker 1: around with a below time and like screams at people.
- 24:46Speaker 1: I think, like when he is at home, like, you
- 24:49Speaker 1: don't have nine kids unless like you love having kids, right,
- 24:53Speaker 1: and he just likes making kids. It's possible, but there
- 24:59Speaker 1: are ways to stop having the kids, you know what
- 25:01Speaker 1: I'm saying. And so who knows what's going on there?
- 25:04Speaker 1: And so I feel like he is not happy to
- 25:08Speaker 1: be away from his family. I would not be surprised if,
- 25:10Speaker 1: like he sees this as a you know, I know
- 25:12Speaker 1: a lot of parents who like every time they go
- 25:14Speaker 1: on a trip, they think, oh, it would be fun
- 25:15Speaker 1: to bring my kids, a good opportunity for them. Like
- 25:18Speaker 1: his kids might never have seen snow. He might be thinking,
- 25:20Speaker 1: oh my god, kids, let's all rent a plane. And
- 25:23Speaker 1: either way he's excited. Either way he's looking forward to this.
- 25:26Speaker 1: It's it's a good trip for him. He likes going
- 25:28Speaker 1: on the road. He wins on the road. Did you
- 25:30Speaker 1: see when he ran for that first town and gets Baltimore,
- 25:32Speaker 1: gets up, he does the first down thing so so emphatic.
- 25:35Speaker 1: He could have nine kids making snow Angels at Fox
- 25:38Speaker 1: before the game. Love everything about Philip Rivers. What's what's
- 25:40Speaker 1: going on this year? I love it? I love it.
- 25:43Speaker 1: I like that team, the roster, Anthony Lynn better head
- 25:48Speaker 1: coach than I thought he'd be when he was in Buffalo. Congratulations, Yeah, Chargers,
- 25:56Speaker 1: I think the Chargers win. This came out right one
- 26:00Speaker 1: of those weird things, like are the Chargers getting over hyped?
- 26:04Speaker 1: And everybody's on They were twelve and four this year. Man,
- 26:06Speaker 1: I record the New England. I was on him all year.
- 26:09Speaker 1: Go check go, look at the action gap. I don't care,
- 26:13Speaker 1: just wonder if it's time to fade him. Well, you're
- 26:16Speaker 1: gonna have to make a decision. Why the fund is
- 26:26Speaker 1: the background on your phone a glass of water with
- 26:28Speaker 1: a piece of lemon in it? Uh, my younger kid
- 26:34Speaker 1: took the picture and I never changed it because I
- 26:37Speaker 1: love my children like Philip Rivers loves his children. Love
- 26:40Speaker 1: your kids. You just got done talking about people who
- 26:43Speaker 1: parent like you, which means like half asked and lack
- 26:46Speaker 1: of days ago. Well, my wife doesn't parent that way,
- 26:48Speaker 1: so we're all in as a couple. And um he
- 26:52Speaker 1: took this picture and like asked if I would leave
- 26:54Speaker 1: it as a screen server. I said sure, and then uh,
- 26:58Speaker 1: he did it again. It came like a theme. He's
- 27:00Speaker 1: like when we're a restaurant. Sometimes he'll take a picture
- 27:02Speaker 1: of a glass of water with a limit in it
- 27:04Speaker 1: and say, Dad, this, this is gonna be your new screen.
- 27:06Speaker 1: Saye ever try anything? I mean, is he trolling you?
- 27:08Speaker 1: Is it? I mean, it wouldn't surprise me. All right,
- 27:12Speaker 1: Chargers Patriots, what are you doing? Do you have a
- 27:16Speaker 1: feeling on the total? Maybe? I think I just feel
- 27:20Speaker 1: like I want a bit the Patriots. So we're not
- 27:25Speaker 1: going to agree on it. This show is rapidly going
- 27:28Speaker 1: to turn into It's gonna go from us trying to
- 27:30Speaker 1: agree on picks to us just betting head to head.
- 27:32Speaker 1: That's what this is going to be possible. All right,
- 27:36Speaker 1: let's do another. Let's do fifty on the Chargers Patriots.
- 27:39Speaker 1: Fine deal, all right? Uh? Next one, Philadelphia New Orleans
- 27:47Speaker 1: Saints by eight. You go first. I think the Saints
- 27:59Speaker 1: are going to kill hi. I'm on the Eagles. I
- 28:04Speaker 1: took to be fair, I took the Eagles when it
- 28:06Speaker 1: opened to plus ten tends too many points to give.
- 28:10Speaker 1: I I looking at this like a couple of things here.
- 28:12Speaker 1: Number one, don't forget. As we all know, I bet
- 28:16Speaker 1: the Saints eighteen to want to win the Super Bowl
- 28:19Speaker 1: way back in the summer. So I do have a
- 28:21Speaker 1: couple of strategies here, Like if this game, I could
- 28:24Speaker 1: start betting the Eagles on the money line now, because
- 28:27Speaker 1: I might start hedging, um until it better. Well, then
- 28:31Speaker 1: I was gonna wait until like the Saints are up
- 28:33Speaker 1: seven nothing and it's plus five hundred, and I'll you know,
- 28:36Speaker 1: put like less money down on the Eagles to win
- 28:38Speaker 1: it all and I will win more money than if
- 28:40Speaker 1: I windn't. Then if the Saints win the Super Bowl.
- 28:43Speaker 1: Um So, I am gonna live bet the Eagles at
- 28:45Speaker 1: plus whatever when they're losing, um so I can hedge.
- 28:50Speaker 1: I think the Bears exposed so many things in the
- 28:53Speaker 1: Eagles defense in their loss in their loss and also
- 28:57Speaker 1: exposed what they didn't do that this Saints will do.
- 29:01Speaker 1: There's two things. One, Mitch Dubisky through over the top
- 29:04Speaker 1: of that defense and expose those defensive backs and Drew
- 29:07Speaker 1: Brees news flash, better than Mitch Drubisky. Right, So all
- 29:12Speaker 1: the things that Mitsky did really well did really hasn't
- 29:15Speaker 1: been throwing the ball down field Lot did really well.
- 29:18Speaker 1: Drew Brees will have the chance to do with a
- 29:21Speaker 1: much much better receiving corps Number one, number two. What
- 29:26Speaker 1: the Bears didn't do that they should have done that
- 29:28Speaker 1: would have won them the game is get the ball
- 29:30Speaker 1: to Arrecon, he was their best playmaker, Get him in space,
- 29:34Speaker 1: get him on the edge. Those defensive backs would have
- 29:36Speaker 1: had no chance to get him. Drew Brees is going
- 29:39Speaker 1: to get the ball to Alvin Kamara. This Saints team
- 29:43Speaker 1: is just going to be much better, much much better
- 29:46Speaker 1: offensively than the Eagles. Bears also would have wanted they
- 29:48Speaker 1: gonna stop on fourth down, greatest defense ever and stuff
- 29:52Speaker 1: that couldn't get a fourth down stop. Agree, Um, here's
- 29:57Speaker 1: my problem. Everything you set is right in terms of
- 30:03Speaker 1: the Eagles defense, that secondary me. I mean, who the
- 30:06Speaker 1: hell even knows who they trot out week to week
- 30:08Speaker 1: in the secondary anymore? It's disastrous. Better receivers, better playmakers,
- 30:14Speaker 1: better quarterback. I don't know, man, I don't know that.
- 30:23Speaker 1: Neither was your take on the Patriots now gave I gave, no,
- 30:29Speaker 1: it wasn't. I don't. I think the number is too
- 30:31Speaker 1: short for a team at home that has been to
- 30:35Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Many years and has proven it doesn't
- 30:37Speaker 1: matter this year, and has proven it could compete. Not
- 30:39Speaker 1: the same team, you know, there the benefit of the down.
- 30:41Speaker 1: It ain't the same team. Well, part of it is
- 30:44Speaker 1: the same team. Okay, it's still not the same team.
- 30:48Speaker 1: I'm betting the number. That's the point. Sober telling me,
- 30:52Speaker 1: I don't know is not anything. It's I'm afraid of
- 30:57Speaker 1: standing in front. That's what I'm afraid of. I'm afraid
- 31:01Speaker 1: to get in front of that train. All right. I
- 31:04Speaker 1: don't know what it is, Chad, but the Eagles put
- 31:06Speaker 1: him under center, and ship just works. It just does.
- 31:12Speaker 1: I don't know, man, Yeah I think the Saints win
- 31:16Speaker 1: the game. Do I think they roll them? No team?
- 31:24Speaker 1: And you're here reasoning is I don't know. I can't
- 31:28Speaker 1: get in front of the I can't because sometimes in sports, Chad,
- 31:32Speaker 1: these things just happen. Okay, Sometimes you just get a
- 31:36Speaker 1: feeling about something like last week when I told you
- 31:39Speaker 1: the Bears kicking game sucked and they were gonna leave
- 31:42Speaker 1: points on the field. I told you that, remember, Yeah,
- 31:46Speaker 1: well I did go back and listen to it. I
- 31:50Speaker 1: I don't know. I have a problem laying over a
- 31:53Speaker 1: touchdown with Nick Foles there, that team is markedly better
- 31:57Speaker 1: with him. It it's inexplicable. Also, the Eagles have this
- 32:02Speaker 1: weird fucking thing where you remember last year in the
- 32:05Speaker 1: playoffs they were wearing the dog masks. The fact that
- 32:08Speaker 1: they were an underdog at home is the one seed
- 32:11Speaker 1: motivated that team. You don't think they're gonna be motivated
- 32:13Speaker 1: by the fact that the Saints just fucking curb stomped
- 32:16Speaker 1: them earlier this year, that they're not going to go
- 32:20Speaker 1: in there and at least make this a game. Sean
- 32:24Speaker 1: Payton this week, Yeah, I know the trophy, the money,
- 32:28Speaker 1: the ring wheeled in the Lombardi Trophy. I read ESPN
- 32:32Speaker 1: two on top of a stack of two d and
- 32:34Speaker 1: twenty five grand in cash, said you want this, go
- 32:39Speaker 1: win three fucking games. It's two they get to oh
- 32:45Speaker 1: one if they win. The whole thing made the story
- 32:47Speaker 1: closely enough. Slap you fifty bucks. What's the number we're
- 32:57Speaker 1: betting on here? Eight? Yeah, fine, let's do it. By
- 33:05Speaker 1: the way, this show format has just changed live on
- 33:08Speaker 1: the air. Well, listen, what I like about this is
- 33:11Speaker 1: it's giving us options when we don't like the bets.
- 33:13Speaker 1: We can bet each other when we do like the
- 33:15Speaker 1: bets we can bet together. That's it, all right. Here's
- 33:19Speaker 1: one for you. Here's one for you, Georgina. We got
- 33:23Speaker 1: a little surprise for the listeners. We got We're going.
- 33:25Speaker 1: We're going off NFL. This is near. Give me an
- 33:27Speaker 1: MLB over under please, no idea what that means. Season
- 33:33Speaker 1: win totals came out this week. Season win totals for
- 33:35Speaker 1: major really early before free agency signing. Um, but I
- 33:40Speaker 1: got one that I like. All right, I got a
- 33:42Speaker 1: few go ahead. Chicago White Sox over seventy four and
- 33:46Speaker 1: a half wins Shine John Jay mm hmm. Friends with
- 33:52Speaker 1: Na Machado signed Yonder Alonso, brother in law of name Michado,
- 34:00Speaker 1: one of two teams rumored to be in the Manny
- 34:04Speaker 1: Machado Sweepsteaks. Yeah. I like their over even without Micado.
- 34:11Speaker 1: I beton Betton, Betton on the White Sox Betton. God damn.
- 34:22Speaker 1: I was had a birthday party at Silver at Comiskey.
- 34:27Speaker 1: It wasn't my birthday was a friend. No, no, no, no,
- 34:29Speaker 1: call it by its name? What is it now? First
- 34:34Speaker 1: rate mortgage or some ship. But you know, back when
- 34:37Speaker 1: I was growing up, it was called Comiskey. Yeah. And
- 34:40Speaker 1: Harold Bean's at a home run. It's a little weird one.
- 34:45Speaker 1: I don't think in not respect probably doesn't deserve it.
- 34:47Speaker 1: A lot of people disagree with that one. Yeah, but
- 34:50Speaker 1: I was always a big fan number three for the
- 34:52Speaker 1: White Sox. Um that's great back in their winter and
- 34:56Speaker 1: ugly days. So you're a White Sox fan. Cups. Okay,
- 34:58Speaker 1: there we go. So you were just a fan of
- 35:00Speaker 1: the White Sox and they were winning. True story, they're
- 35:02Speaker 1: that guy, no true story. True story. So, as you know,
- 35:06Speaker 1: I used to work at ESPN. I had a pretty
- 35:07Speaker 1: good job there, and every year we would go to
- 35:10Speaker 1: uh we would do something with Barack Obama's famous We
- 35:14Speaker 1: know we've seen the pictures on your Instagram about this
- 35:17Speaker 1: was the first time I met him. Not you and
- 35:19Speaker 1: Barack Obama and you and mommy, not not the That
- 35:22Speaker 1: was the second time. By the way I was, it
- 35:24Speaker 1: was suggested to me on Instagram that I follow your mom.
- 35:27Speaker 1: I'm not lying about that. My mom's not on Instagram.
- 35:30Speaker 1: Yes she is, all right, she is. I don't know
- 35:34Speaker 1: if I follow her. I did not do it because
- 35:37Speaker 1: I thought that would be weird. But it was suggested
- 35:39Speaker 1: by the app that I follow your mom. I should,
- 35:41Speaker 1: I should, I should probably follow her. Um. So we
- 35:44Speaker 1: went to the two the White House for the brackets,
- 35:47Speaker 1: and UM I got to go. I was like, you
- 35:49Speaker 1: know an executive who went and at the end of it, um,
- 35:53Speaker 1: at the end of it's the longest you get. You
- 35:57Speaker 1: get to meet him, right, And so like all I
- 36:00Speaker 1: cared about, like you're in the You're in this the
- 36:02Speaker 1: Roosevelt Room, I think. And they've got great furniture in there,
- 36:05Speaker 1: and like in the bathroom they've got like these great
- 36:07Speaker 1: bat like these great towels that are like boy, cottony
- 36:10Speaker 1: paper towels that I stole. Right, all I'm thinking is
- 36:14Speaker 1: when he says it's time to take a picture, I
- 36:16Speaker 1: gotta talk to the guy. So he says, all right,
- 36:18Speaker 1: let's take a picture, and sort of I beat line
- 36:20Speaker 1: to the front and I'm standing in front of him,
- 36:22Speaker 1: and Andy Katz, who had brought me there um to
- 36:25Speaker 1: the brackets, introduces me instead of Chad Melman. He runs
- 36:27Speaker 1: ESPN and Digital and anyway from Chicago. And the President
- 36:32Speaker 1: is like, oh my god, that's amazing. And I'm like, hey,
- 36:34Speaker 1: how about the White Sox. He goes, he goes, you're
- 36:36Speaker 1: a fan. I'm like, yeah, and uh, I'm not a fan,
- 36:42Speaker 1: but I felt like I wanted to make a present.
- 36:48Speaker 1: I did well. But the thing is, I'm not saying
- 36:51Speaker 1: I'm not a fan. Like when they do well, I'm excited,
- 36:54Speaker 1: but like, I'm much more of a Cubs fan than
- 36:55Speaker 1: a White Sox fan. Of course you are. What socks
- 36:59Speaker 1: aren't bougie enough for you? So well, you know, I'm
- 37:02Speaker 1: a North Side guy and like my dad grew up
- 37:05Speaker 1: in the North Side, we didn't really you know, I
- 37:08Speaker 1: have a relationship with the South Side. Just a real
- 37:10Speaker 1: shame you couldn't get into Northwestern to complete this picture.
- 37:15Speaker 1: I didn't even apply. So anyways, Uh, credit to you
- 37:19Speaker 1: for knowing your limits. Uh. White Sox seventy four and
- 37:22Speaker 1: a half. I like that. Yeah, yeah. I also like
- 37:26Speaker 1: the Colorado Rockies over eighty two. I believe it is
- 37:31Speaker 1: um talking about a team. Let's do the White Sox together. Okay, yeah,
- 37:36Speaker 1: we can about that, um, but I like Colorado For
- 37:39Speaker 1: those of you who are looking for more, bringing back
- 37:42Speaker 1: essentially the same team as last year, and that division
- 37:45Speaker 1: got worse. I mean, the Dodgers I think will take
- 37:47Speaker 1: a little bit of a step back, but everyone else
- 37:50Speaker 1: has taken a major step back. Somebody's got to win
- 37:53Speaker 1: games there. Other than l A. I think it's Colorado.
- 37:56Speaker 1: Also like Milwaukee's over and the Mets over. What do
- 38:00Speaker 1: you think of Troy to Lewiskey Rocky is are not
- 38:02Speaker 1: gonna be as good without him? He's just fucking with me.
- 38:09Speaker 1: I never know, because I don't know the depth of
- 38:11Speaker 1: your knowledge and anything other than the NFL, So says
- 38:15Speaker 1: the man who forgot to bet the national title. It's
- 38:21Speaker 1: good times. Uh listen, listen, don't forget. We got a
- 38:25Speaker 1: live podcast in January six pm, Folies in Manhattan. You
- 38:29Speaker 1: can go to Action Network dot com slash Favorites and
- 38:32Speaker 1: you can sign up. This has been the Favorites from
- 38:35Speaker 1: the Action Network. I am Chad Mellman. That was black
- 38:37Speaker 1: Jack Fletcher. You can catch us on Monday, Wednesday and Friday,
- 38:41Speaker 1: which means we'll be back on Monday with Jess Swartz
- 38:44Speaker 1: and Paula Duca. Until next time. Don't forget download the
- 38:47Speaker 1: podcast Apple Podcasts. What is it? Radio dot com, Radio
- 38:54Speaker 1: dot com Slash the Favorites. No, every fucking week Radio
- 39:06Speaker 1: dot com Slash the Action Network Radio dot Com Slash
- 39:12Speaker 1: the Action Network or wherever you listen to your podcasts.
- 39:15Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.