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The 5 o' Clock Shadow with Schalk Louw · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock
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shadow.
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And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Glo, Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth
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Old Oak in Cape Town.
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We didn't speak last week because of a public holiday in South Africa, Skulk.
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But what's happened since we last spoke two weeks ago is the same old story.
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Things that have been going up.
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for a few months now, a few weeks now at least, continue to go up and it's all
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fine.
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Everything's fine and well.
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That's an understatement, Lindsay.
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We'll come to what you're talking about in a moment.
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But just generally speaking, nobody seems to care about anything that's thrown at
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them, market participants that is.
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No, no, no.
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No, markets enjoyed in general one of the best Septembers in years.
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After, I mean, we went into September.
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I can't believe we're sitting here, Lindsay, on the 1st of October.
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Fourth quarter, yes.
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Yeah, talking about September as a distant memory.
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Oh, man.
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I'm still going into 2025, as you just mentioned, going into the fourth quarter.
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But, I mean, what a first, let's call it,
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nine months it's been.
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I mean, there is a...
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close to 32% up year to date.
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I mean, that's just crazy to think about.
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I mean, and the month, last month, it's just crazy.
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I mean, in Rand terms, we've done 6.6% last month alone.
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And if you put it in dollar terms, it's even more.
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It's like 8.3% in dollar terms compared to the MSCI All Country World's performance
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of...
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Also, in dollar terms, 3.6%.
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It's been a great, great month, but definite trend, trend towards emerging
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markets in general.
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And when we look at the MSCI Emerging Market Index in dollar terms last month,
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also outperforming the All-Country World Index, not doing what South Africa has
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done, but at 7.2% for the month.
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I think any investor out there would say, where do I sign if they can get those type
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of performances?
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September, of course, is statistically the worst month if you go back 150 years or
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something.
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So that's the exception that we've just experienced that proves the rule.
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And October has got a reputation.
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It's got a bad reputation, but generally isn't too bad.
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So maybe those rules will be reversed.
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Maybe October, like the seasons are changing with climate change.
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Maybe the trends on the stock market are changing, Skull.
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And we're going to get a big wallop in October for some reason.
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Although the jobs data today from the United States hasn't phased anybody.
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And the U.S. government shutdown hasn't either.
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So what are you going to need?
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What are you going to need to stop being bullish, Skulk?
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Evidently, I love a lot more.
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Evidently.
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Because, I mean, there's a few government employees out there that will argue and
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say, well,
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I'm most probably not going to get paid.
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if things go on the way it's going.
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And I'm talking about the US government employees.
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I mean, yeah, it's a crazy, crazy environment.
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But for now, I mean, it's just wonderful to be in.
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I mean, to give the feedback, the general optimism.
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And actually, I mean, I mentioned it.
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I mean, we're talking about growth assets or assets that should be growing well.
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But I mean, listen to this, Lindsay.
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I mean, we talked about the 6.6%
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growth in the JSE.
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And if you take in Rand terms, the emerging market index has done close to
4:01
5%,
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4.77% to be exact.
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But I mean, local bonds, the return for September, 3.3%.
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If you invest it in global bonds, I'm talking about global.
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The Govey Index, 2.1%.
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I mean, so, you know, even the two, let's call it less risky assets, local bonds and
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global bonds,
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they also outperformed the MSCI World Index.
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So, yeah, it's been...
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Well, the last quarter for bonds was extraordinary, Scott.
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I mean, you talk about them being...
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I mean, the whole behavior of bonds has changed in recent times, I believe.
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Let me just have a look at this chart I'm trying to get up.
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There we go.
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The one year.
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No, let's go six months.
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Let's go back to Liberation Day.
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Back just after Liberation Day, the South African
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10-year yield got to a high of 11.165%.
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Just after Trump stood up there with that ridiculous cardboard thing that he had,
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went to 11.16%.
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Currently 9.17% and did go close to 9%.
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That is a massive 150 basis points nearly, Skulk.
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More than 150 basis points.
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And it's a staggering return for what is supposed to be a staid and boring asset
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class.
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Exactly.
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Exactly.
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That's where I might get to.
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So it's an environment where
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I think clients are just flourishing because invested in risky assets or
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growth assets like equities, local and abroad.
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um Or, you know, less risky assets like bonds.
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I mean, even, I want to say not just even less risky, I mean, more your conservative
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type of investment.
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I mean, bonds, global bonds.
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I mean, if you look at international bonds,
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global bond index in round terms over the past 12 months has given you a return,
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a total return of 23% over 12 months.
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Oh, man, what a pleasure.
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What a pleasure to be in.
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So, yeah, it's a great, great, but where I want to get to, I mean, is, you know,
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the commodities.
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I mean, the resources.
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I mean, this has really been helping South Africa a lot.
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I mean, do you want to take a guess, just a wild stab?
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Yes.
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I mean, I've just told you that the market has grown.
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The South African market has done 6.6% in September.
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You want to take a wild stab and say, what did the
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RSI index done over that same period?
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In September, just the month of September, not the quarter.
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Okay.
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And you can go wild.
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12.3%.
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That is wild.
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That's pretty much double what the JSC has done.
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But you need to go more than double what you've actually just said because the RISI
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index did
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28.1% a second below.
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Yes.
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Wow.
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Yes.
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Year-to-date, 121%.
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Take it and run.
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Come on now.
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Don't look at your job.
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Get off.
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Off to the Bahamas.
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Take your money, take your client's money, some of it, and say, we've got to do this.
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It's responsible investing.
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What am I doing telling you what to do?
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But I mean, when I see those sort of numbers, and if I'd been away on holiday
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and hadn't looked at the screen, I'd say, thank you very much.
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You know what I mean?
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No, no, no.
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No, for sure.
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This is the environment.
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This is typically, I mean, we as investment professionals,
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usually you've got these reports.
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Things like, for instance, if you've been out of the market for the past, let's call
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it,
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best 20 days out of the past 20 years, how your growth would have dropped, etc., etc.
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But I mean, this is just a proof, you know, the proof of the pudding is in the
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eating.
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This is case in point.
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If you sort of got hesitant a few years ago and you said, well, I'm really not
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interested.
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This market is making me worried.
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so the african environment politically is not looking good or just end of last year
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said well we've
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done done done done a hell of a lot let's let's get out of the market i mean year to
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date you would have missed pretty much a solid
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set of return but we
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are a a commodity producing country um and uh you started off
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hey but it's more of the same gold price
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12 growth in in in september alone In dollar terms?
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What was the high?
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39.30 or something like that?
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In dollar terms?
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I can tell you because I've actually got it in front of me.
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It holds a strange fascination for me.
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Because this is going parabolic now.
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This is like a flagpole.
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This is ridiculously high.
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I mean, the Goldman Sachs report came out, I think, a few weeks ago.
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They brought a report.
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I want to say it could be six weeks ago.
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It could be five weeks ago.
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but there's the past month, where they brought a report where they said, well,
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they see the gold price at $4,000 in I think the first or second quarter of next
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year.
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And I think people will say, well, I mean,
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after what gold has done recently, man, what are you smoking?
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Yeah, we're sitting four weeks later, call it, and gold price already just out of
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$100.
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of those levels.
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But, I mean, it's not just gold.
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I mean, if you look at the platinum price, that has increased over 15% in dollar
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terms of September.
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Year-to-date, that's a growth of 74% in the platinum price.
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Palladium, that was up 13% in September.
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Year-to-date, also 36% up.
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This is great.
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This is great for South Africa.
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because we're the largest platinum producer, the second largest platinum
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producer, the eighth largest gold producer.
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I'm just a bit disappointed because I think, what was it, a day or two ago, we
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actually,
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it was yesterday, where we had the current account, where that came out.
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And that was a bit disappointing.
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We were still trading at a surplus, which is good.
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But that came down to only $4 billion.
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That's quite a hefty...
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decrease in our surplus,
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and they actually contributed the large decline towards our
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exports of precious metals.
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So, this is a bit disappointing because when you see these type of movements,
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and one could maybe argue that's maybe why we're seeing these type of movements
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because if South Africa is not
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exporting enough or the way they've been doing, then naturally there will be more
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buyers than sellers.
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That might be one of the reasons why some of these commodity prices are doing what
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it's doing.
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But yeah, still, in general, I think this is very, very good.
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And look at the rent, rent supporting that view as well.
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How much do you think platinum is up so far year on year?
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Not year to date.
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Oh, no, hold a second.
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Let's go year to date, platinum and US dollars.
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Come on, give it a stab.
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And don't cheat, please.
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I thought you'd know it because I've looked at it earlier this week.
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Go on then.
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So you can tell the listeners.
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As we speak, and it's down a bit today.
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75.5% year to date.
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75.5% year to date, the platinum price.
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When it broke, it just ran and ran and ran.
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There was that massive base on the graph, which is always a good thing to look at.
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And away it went.
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And silver and gold up in the 40s, you know.
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If you're an orange juice drinker, that's also good.
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I'm looking at the commodities now.
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You've got me going.
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If you're an orange juice drinker, the orange juice price is down 50%, but coffee
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up
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49 and a half percent which is there's no sign of that going down the commodity
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board is
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wild potatoes down 72 percent anyway yeah capiteg let's get
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back to earth now capitex results came out we knew they'd be good the market likes it
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but the market likes the market so whatever
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what did it say anything new no i mean it's just more of the same for this
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company i mean it's uh
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So headline earnings up 26%.
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I mean, so that's really looking good.
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They're still trading at an ROE of 31.
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I mean, this is what we want to see.
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When you value banks, you don't really look at their PE ratios.
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You like to look at their price to books.
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And usually there, when you say you look at the price to book and you look at the
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ROE,
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The ROE is trading.
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lowish, then usually the bank should be trading at a lowish price to book.
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And inversely the same thing.
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Now, we know that Capitec is trading at these crazy, crazy price to book.
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I've read somewhere it might be the most expensive bank in the world on a price to
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book basis.
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But I mean, to 2024, they had a return on equity of 29%.
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This set of results came out 31%.
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And even the book value increased by 17%.
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So, yeah, no, share price again reacted greatly.
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I mean, up 3% for today.
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It's just a bank that's going from strength to strength.
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A great, great South African story.
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What about the SPAR trading update?
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I think it was a voluntary trading update.
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The market seemed to like that one up about 3.5%, 4%, I think.
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Yeah, close to 4% as well.
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Voluntary uptake was good.
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I mean, it does show the numbers looking good.
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Just put in context, we had
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Boxer numbers that came out on Monday.
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And I don't know if you've seen, it was a very,
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very interesting move because Boxer came out with a great trading statement as well
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as stating that
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they've grown, they've turned over.
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And immediately,
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most of the investors out there sort of made the assumption that for them to
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because remember,
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the South African retail pool or food retailer pool is not growing.
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It's pretty much the same size.
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So for a company like Boxer to grow the way it's done over the past 12 months,
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it had to go and take a market share of some of these other companies.
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And over the same time, I think Boxer on Monday, that was also up something like 2%
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or 3%.
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Over the same day, or training day, Spar was down 3%, 2% or 3%.
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And I think there was no real reason why Spar had to decline on Monday.
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So I think today's movement was sort of, oh, okay,
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so clearly Boxer didn't really go and take Spar's... uh,
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let's call it clients, SPAR is still doing fine.
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And I think this movement today was sort of just a, whew, it's fine for SPAR.
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Yes, okay.
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Well, that's a welcome relief because Spar has been a bit all over the place
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recently.
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Anything else happened over the last two weeks?
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You've given us Boxer, you've given us what's happened today, Skalk.
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Was there one thing that I've missed while you've been off?
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No, I think in general, market-wise, there was no big,
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let's call it, surprises.
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I think the only thing that's really standing out is this AGOA arrangement.
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I mean, we know now it's now finished.
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I mean, and they haven't addressed it.
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I know President Serafim Aboula,
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he actually did address it and spoke and asked that they look at
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this.
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And I think, yeah, I think U.S.
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are sitting with a lot of problems as we're currently sitting.
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You spoke about the shutdown.
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and I think I mean I think Trump has got 99 problems and
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Algoa is just most probably not one of them currently.
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But for us, it's a big one.
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It's a big one for us and it's a big one for countries like Lesotho,
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who actually do export a lot of clothing from their side
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towards the US.
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Well, for the size of the country, a lot of clothing, a lot of jeans, for example,
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yes.
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but I was just looking at Alibaba and...
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nvidia during the month of september if you put up a graph of any alibaba versus
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nvidia alibaba's gone
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in september he's talking about the month of september from 120 to
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180 or so 60.
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so that's a 50 rise for alibaba in in um just the month of september
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and um if you'd have been buying that against nvidia that's gone from what
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165 5 to
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180. So virtually nothing compared to Alibaba, which is the new big thing,
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isn't it?
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You get out of your NVIDIA, you get into Alibaba.
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That's what people have been saying for a while now.
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I don't know.
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It's all a bit wild.
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It's like the Wild West out there, Skulk.
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Yeah, I mean, you and I, we've chatted about this before.
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And just cards on the table.
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I mean, I am an investor of Alibaba.
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Alibaba.
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Well done.
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Yeah, no, it's I think, you know,
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the conversation we had is where you take and there's a few nice ETFs
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that look at it.
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I mean, but the one that I'm well,
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the two that I'm looking at is basically your Chinese internet companies versus
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your U.S.
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internet companies.
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and We're not going to look at the specific ETFs that I'm looking at, but
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it's international ETFs.
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When you take these two ETFs and you put them price-wise relative against each
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other,
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I think you turned your clock back about a year ago, the discrepancy between these
19:03
two,
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with naturally the U.S.
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Internet companies running like a house on fire, The Chinese companies...
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remained under pressure.
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And we just felt, I think about a year ago, that there's definitely an
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opportunity,
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opportunity for a bit of a recovery.
19:21
We've seen the Chinese data that's been released over the past few weeks.
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That's maybe one thing we can mention about the past two weeks.
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The Chinese data that's been coming out is looking good.
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And naturally, this has been really, really great for companies like Tencent,
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companies like Alibaba.
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I mean, JD.com, I mean, these companies have done well.
19:45
But even if you sit with these recent great recovery on some of these Chinese
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internet companies,
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if you take that same graph, put them against other over the past three years,
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you can still see the Chinese internet companies are still somewhat off.
20:02
They've made up some of the, let's call it the lag, but it's not made up all the
20:08
losses yet.
20:09
So what do you say then?
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you say to yourself Okay, they've only just started, so let's get in.
20:14
I've just conducted an interview with Michael Power.
20:17
I don't know if you remember Michael Power when he was at 91 as an investment
20:21
strategist.
20:23
Yeah, I remember.
20:25
He's written this incredible article on AI for Daily Maverick, and we just spoke
20:29
about that.
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And he goes into all sorts of technical reasons why China is catching up and why
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America's got to watch out.
20:37
So maybe it's gone up 50% in one month.
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a company like Alibaba, after great numbers.
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But maybe, you know, we're underestimating it and it can go further.
20:47
Anyway, talking about data, as I said in my introduction,
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US private sector jobs have fallen by the most in two and a half years.
20:56
Mr.
20:57
Trump will hate that.
21:00
Yeah, yeah.
21:01
The jolts yesterday looked pretty stable.
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Job openings, yeah.
21:07
Yeah, the job openings yesterday came out more or less expected.
21:12
And I think that was sort of a sigh of relief because that was the first hurdle
21:16
done.
21:17
But yeah, you mentioned today's data, not that good.
21:24
I mean, then we need to go and see later this week.
21:28
It's going to be some serious job numbers going to come out later this week.
21:32
And I think that's going to be a big question mark.
21:35
I think it's Friday, if I'm not mistaken.
21:37
Yes, it is.
21:38
Friday, October 3rd.
21:39
Yeah, precisely.
21:40
First Friday of the month.
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Let's have a look at some prices.
21:44
Where are these things?
21:45
I've been looking at so many different things.
21:47
You've led me astray again, Scott.
21:49
Okay, here we go.
21:50
I've got the dollar round at 17.20.
21:53
The British pound against the round 23.80.
21:56
The euro round.
21:58
2018,
22:00
EUR$117.31 gold price 38.62 on my screen is that
22:07
correct Skulk 38.62?
22:11
Let me quickly see, I've actually got it open here just hold for a sec.
22:14
Thank you very much.
22:16
Yeah that's pretty much what it's trading at now yeah.
22:19
Okay, so it's off its highs, but it's still bubbling under, very close to that
22:26
3,900 mark, and the Goldman Sachs 4,000 mark.
22:28
Platinum, 1,587, which is up a percent or so.
22:29
Palladium, down nearly a percent at $1,276 per ounce.
22:34
What else have we got?
22:35
The oil price.
22:36
While I'm looking for oil, how's Cecil been doing for you?
22:42
Cecil, I don't have a big position.
22:45
I remember that it was one of my trades.
22:51
That's the one I'm talking about.
22:52
That's the one.
22:52
So it's definitely retraced.
22:54
I mean, it's not trading at the,
22:56
let's call it the 120 odd levels where it was trading a few weeks ago.
23:01
It's now trading at 107 rand.
23:03
But it's still definitely in recovery mode.
23:06
Remember, we've mentioned the likes of what the Platinums and Palladiums and
23:13
Golds has done.
23:15
Remember the Brent World Prize at that time.
23:16
that has declined by 2% in September.
23:18
And the RAND against the dollar, for instance, that was stronger, more than 2%.
23:26
So if you take that, that's pretty much a 4%
23:29
drop in RAND terms for the world price,
23:34
which naturally won't be good for the likes of Sasol.
23:38
But still, I mean, under 7 RAND levels, still trading way, way above the levels he
23:45
was trading at in April, May this year.
23:47
Yes, indeed.
23:49
On the old story, we've got West Texas crude 62 on the nose, which is down
23:51
0.6%. Brent crude oil $65.57, which is down 0.7%.
23:56
The copper price is in New York $4.80,
24:00
4.8067 to be precise,
24:03
which is down just under half a percent on the day.
24:07
But I still think it looks really good.
24:09
somebody asked me scalp what my best performing my prediction for the best
24:14
performing
24:16
Stock market in the world in 2026 would be, incidentally,
24:20
it was Egypt last year.
24:25
So I don't know.
24:26
I don't know anything about these things.
24:27
I just said Chile because of the copper factor.
24:30
It's not a bad call, is it?
24:31
I mean, copper, I think, is poised for greatness.
24:33
I don't think it's going to be a gold, but I do think it's going to go higher.
24:38
Well, we chatted about the AI and you mentioned it earlier.
24:43
I mean, you can't be of the opinion that AI, I mean,
24:48
we already know now that AI is going to take over the world.
24:50
Of course it is.
24:51
I mean, some of these tech companies are telling us, the likes of the NVIDIA's
24:56
empowerment movement,
24:58
they're telling us that it's going to take over the world.
25:00
But if you're going to be of that opinion, then you need to say, well, you need to
25:06
back copper.
25:08
But what do you have?
25:10
What do you have for best performing country this year, market?
25:12
Chile.
25:13
because Chile is known for producing copper.
25:18
Chile?
25:18
Okay.
25:19
I've actually got it open now just to get an idea.
25:21
Here we go.
25:24
You knew I was going to do that.
25:26
So as we stand here with all the listed country ETFs,
25:34
Chile is finding itself in 14th position.
25:41
This is for 2026, though, but I'm interested to know what's gone on this
25:45
year.
25:46
Yeah, it's done close to, let's call it, 35% in dollar terms this year.
25:50
I mean, and for the listeners out there, let's high-five each other.
25:54
So Africa is currently in seventh position, in the top ten.
25:57
Currently, year-to-date, that's the MSCI.
25:59
So people should know, it's not the JSE. This is the ETF, basically the MSCI.
26:06
South Africa ETF is done in dollar terms big drum roll.
26:10
Year-to-date, up to yesterday's close, 55%.
26:14
Wow.
26:15
Wow, wow, wow.
26:16
Amazing.
26:17
It's creating wealth, Skulk, which is such, I mean, it's great.
26:20
It's good for the clients.
26:22
It's good for the pension funds.
26:23
It's good for everything.
26:25
Okay.
26:25
Good for the JSC today was Telcom, which was up 7.4%.
26:30
Is that MTN rumor still going around, Skulk?
26:34
Yeah, it's still very much, very much.
26:36
Those rumors are very much intact, yeah.
26:38
Correct.
26:39
Speaking of MTN, that price, 6.8% higher,
26:44
147 random 38 cents.
26:48
What's GRP?
26:49
That's, what is GRP?
26:51
Growth point, excuse me, 6.8% higher as well.
26:55
Net care up 6.5% and Anglo Gold is shanty.
26:59
Anglo Gold up 4.75%.
27:02
Sorry, Skalk, you wanted to say something?
27:04
No, no, no, I couldn't hear the question.
27:08
GRT, so yeah, you answered it.
27:10
P, yeah, growth point.
27:11
On the downside, Old Mutual down 5.4%.
27:14
Is that an ex-div story, Skulk?
27:17
Old Mutual, yes, correct.
27:18
It's been a dividend.
27:21
XRO down 5%.
27:23
African Rainbow Minerals down 3.1%.
27:25
And Premier down 2.75%.
27:28
Any other ones outside of those, please?
27:31
No, so with the exclusion of Premier?
27:34
All of them are ex-divs.
27:36
So African Remembrance Minerals, 6,600 dividend, and Exaro, 8,043 dividend.
27:40
Thank you very much indeed.
27:41
Closing JSC indices, please.
27:44
So the JSC today, let's quickly have a look.
27:48
They've done pretty solid for the first day of the first, well, let's call it the
27:53
final quarter.
27:55
It's come to, oh, wow, I can't believe this.
27:57
I mean, this is crazy.
27:58
I mean, over 100,000, I thought, man, this is crazy.
28:03
then you know two weeks ago we said it's now gone over 105 000 points today it
28:10
closed
28:10
108 650 points up 0.66 resources not stopping
28:17
not stopping after what it's done in september again up one
28:21
percent for today the industrial index also looking good 0.61 while the financial
28:27
index was up
28:29
0.71 let's look at the value that traders through the market.
28:34
Yeah, not bad.
28:35
Very close to a 30 billion day.
28:38
29.4 billion traded through the Jays here today.
28:42
That's excellent news.
28:43
Skulk, thank you very much for your time.
28:45
An extended version, but we had so much to talk about, so we can excuse ourselves.
28:49
An extended version of the 5 o'clock shadow.
28:52
Skulk is a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.
28:56
And as I said, that was the 5 o'clock shadow.
28:58
Skulk will be back with us same time next week.
29:01
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29:08
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