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Even McConnell Is Happy to See Trump Impeached: Timothy O'Brien · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:01
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
0:04
Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
0:06
Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
0:10
Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
0:13
Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,
0:17
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot Com. Timothy O'Brien, Senior Columns from
0:20
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion, is out with a beautifully crafted opinion today.
0:23
Speaker 1: It begins with a quotation of Frank Sinatra's My Way,
0:27
Speaker 1: and it continues on and essentially it says that the
0:30
Speaker 1: president barely seems to notice that the fishers he's opened
0:34
Speaker 1: are now swallowing him. Even Mitch McConnell happy to see
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Speaker 1: the president impeached. Tim, thanks for joining. You could go
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Speaker 1: so far as to say, especially Mitch McConnell is happy
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Speaker 1: to see the president impeached because now he gets to
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Speaker 1: get rid of President Trump and all the bad things
0:49
Speaker 1: that are associated with him. But a lot of the
0:52
Speaker 1: work that he wanted to see don got done during
0:54
Speaker 1: this last four years. Well, Vonny, the first thing I
0:57
Speaker 1: want to say is that I'm well aware of your
0:58
Speaker 1: own prodigious musical Ellen, I'm grateful that you gave a
1:02
Speaker 1: ad tip to Frank Sinatra um in this one on
1:06
Speaker 1: you know, on McConnell, I think this is a very
1:10
Speaker 1: interesting moment because they did get a lot of practical
1:14
Speaker 1: conservative policy out of Trump that they that um Republicans wanted,
1:20
Speaker 1: a tax cut, deregulation in a more conservative court. I
1:24
Speaker 1: think the question that's always hung over that processes was
1:29
Speaker 1: getting those things worth all of the other trade offs,
1:32
Speaker 1: the debased public dialogue, breaching the rule of law, and
1:38
Speaker 1: on and on and on, culminating in in an insurrection
1:40
Speaker 1: at the Capitol last week. And I think, you know,
1:44
Speaker 1: it's certainly a safetime for McConnell. See he's rethinking those
1:47
Speaker 1: things because he already got them trumps in his twilight
1:51
Speaker 1: days as president. Uh. Nonetheless, I think what you're seeing
1:55
Speaker 1: is this existential debate within the Republican Party about what
1:59
Speaker 1: does the party want to be and how should it
2:00
Speaker 1: represent conservatism and should it be classic um you know, uh,
2:07
Speaker 1: fiscal uh hawkishness, foreign policy hawkishness UM, or be a
2:13
Speaker 1: more of the cultural um uh moment that involves a
2:18
Speaker 1: lot of cultural division, and the party's really split between
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Speaker 1: it's far right and what I would call them McConnell wing.
2:24
Speaker 1: And I think McConnell is now saying I wanted to
2:27
Speaker 1: be otherwise, and if that comes at the expense of
2:29
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's future, so be it. So, Tim, that's a
2:33
Speaker 1: real question. I think, as you mentioned, for a lot
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Speaker 1: of Republican semi four million people voted for Trump, presumably
2:41
Speaker 1: a sizeable portion of those semi four million people were
2:44
Speaker 1: represented by the people that did, in fact march on
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Speaker 1: the Capitol UH last week. Is that a wing of
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Speaker 1: the party that is just lost to that, I guess
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Speaker 1: the core Republican Party, or is that now the core
2:58
Speaker 1: Republican Party? Well, I think first and foremost, you know,
3:01
Speaker 1: I think when we when we talk about huge blocks
3:03
Speaker 1: of voters want to acts who a Republican or who
3:05
Speaker 1: are Democrat. If you go back to every UM UH
3:10
Speaker 1: presidential election through the nine twenties, most of them, except
3:14
Speaker 1: for one of Roosevelt's elections maybe two and Ronald Reagan
3:18
Speaker 1: in most of them were decided by very narrow margins.
3:23
Speaker 1: It was rare to have the country tilt overwhelmingly Republican
3:27
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly Democrat. This last one UM was relatively narrow, but
3:33
Speaker 1: that's that's not out of keeping with where we've been.
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Speaker 1: And I think the reality is that most Republicans and
3:38
Speaker 1: most Democrats vote by default. And I think we get
3:41
Speaker 1: into very dangerous area when we start to say, do
3:44
Speaker 1: do extreme members of the Republican Party actually represent the
3:48
Speaker 1: party itself? And does that mean the party has to
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Speaker 1: accommodate them permanently? And and I would say, and I
3:55
Speaker 1: think that again, that's what I think that the party
3:59
Speaker 1: is trying to get armed around. You know, they let
4:01
Speaker 1: essentially with Trump the monster out of the cave, the
4:05
Speaker 1: monster turned around and ate the children. And now they've
4:08
Speaker 1: got to figure out what to do. And and I
4:10
Speaker 1: think the impeachment is part of that. I think where
4:13
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell and and over, I think at least two
4:17
Speaker 1: dozen Republicans who were going to vote for impeachment are
4:19
Speaker 1: they're saying, no, it's time for a change. Well, And
4:22
Speaker 1: in fact, Joshua Green did a great thing, and he
4:25
Speaker 1: went back through the voting records of those that were
4:28
Speaker 1: identified storming the Capitol Hill the other day, as many
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Speaker 1: as he could find, as many as he could get
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Speaker 1: access to, and found that those who stormed the Capital
4:37
Speaker 1: have very erratic voting records, and some of them, you know,
4:40
Speaker 1: are not even registered Republican. So, Tim, what happens to
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Speaker 1: the likes of Josh Holly, the likes of Ted Cruz. Uh,
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Speaker 1: you know, that's to be seen. I think it's it's
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Speaker 1: very hard to find ways to punish senators outside of
4:56
Speaker 1: the voting booth. And and um, I think McConnell is
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Speaker 1: is going to flex his muscles around here that might
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Speaker 1: involve stripping them of committee assignments. Um. Their hometown newspapers
5:09
Speaker 1: have called on them to resign. Ron Johnson's as well. Um.
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Speaker 1: I think that the dispiriting and damaging thing about Cruise
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Speaker 1: and Holly in particulars they're both trained lawyers. Holly went
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Speaker 1: to Yale, Crews went to Harvard. Holly was the attorney
5:24
Speaker 1: general of Missouri. These are men who have been trained
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Speaker 1: to respect the law and the rule of law, and
5:29
Speaker 1: they were out fomenting an insurrection. Um uh it. You know,
5:34
Speaker 1: it remains to be seen what happens to them, But
5:36
Speaker 1: I suspect, at least until they're up for re election again,
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Speaker 1: they may just skate along. Tim. I'm so glad we're
5:42
Speaker 1: chatting with you today because not just about the impeachment,
5:45
Speaker 1: but another piece of news. I know you're gonna have
5:47
Speaker 1: an interesting take on New York City pulling contracts with
5:51
Speaker 1: the Trump organization for you know, the ice rinks and
5:54
Speaker 1: the golf courses. What do you think the reaction is
5:57
Speaker 1: by the President and by the Trump organization here because
6:00
Speaker 1: these are near and dear to their hearts. I would
6:02
Speaker 1: think that that's a great question, Paul. It's not only
6:05
Speaker 1: near and dear to their hearts because it's in New York,
6:08
Speaker 1: it's also real money, and and real money is near
6:11
Speaker 1: and dear to his heart. He Uh, those properties in
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Speaker 1: New York generated about seventeen million dollars a year in revenue.
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Speaker 1: I suspect that's around five or so of the Trump
6:21
Speaker 1: organization's pre pandemic revenue. But a lot of the you know,
6:24
Speaker 1: the meat in the Trump Organization's revenue stream came from
6:28
Speaker 1: um urban commercial and residential real estate. That's all been
6:32
Speaker 1: very stressed. Whereas those city payments are steady cash flow.
6:36
Speaker 1: They can rely on them. And Trump is certainly in
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Speaker 1: the short term possibly squeezed for funds because he has
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Speaker 1: um over a billion dollars in debt on a portfolio
6:48
Speaker 1: that's worth in the neighborhood of two point seven to
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Speaker 1: three billion dollars pre pandemic. But he's got four hundred
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Speaker 1: billion coming to relatively soon, so he's gonna need cash.
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Speaker 1: So not having access to cash in these New York
7:00
Speaker 1: properties is a problem, uh, monetary, financially, but it's also
7:05
Speaker 1: you know, it's a problem um almost spiritually emblematically, because
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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, for as much as he disparages New York,
7:13
Speaker 1: prides himself on being a New Yorker, and this is
7:16
Speaker 1: yet another rejection of him by New York. Tim, we're
7:20
Speaker 1: really out of time. But you say at the end
7:22
Speaker 1: that as he self emolates, you know, he will move
7:24
Speaker 1: forward with few regrets, but with plenty of plans for payback.
7:28
Speaker 1: How do you envision that? To quote Joe Kennedy, don't
7:32
Speaker 1: get mad get even I think Donald Trump lives by
7:34
Speaker 1: that mantra. Hey, Tim, thanks so much for joining us.
7:38
Speaker 1: It's gonna be interesting to see the post White House
7:40
Speaker 1: time for President Trump. Tim O'Briant, senior columnists for Bloomberg Opinion,
7:45
Speaker 1: joining us from Lovely Montclair, New Jersey. We appreciate him
7:49
Speaker 1: taking the time, and Vannie will be very interesting not
7:51
Speaker 1: only the next uh, you know, several days as it
7:54
Speaker 1: relates to the impeachment, but also again how President Trump, um,
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Speaker 1: you know, what his post administration, post official office time
8:03
Speaker 1: will look like. Where will he be, what will he do?
8:07
Speaker 1: Phrase likely to get mad? Yeah, that's right, we'll see.
8:10
Speaker 1: We'll certainly follow up on that. This is Bloomberg. Well,
8:16
Speaker 1: a lot of investors last week, as they looked on
8:18
Speaker 1: in horror at the insurrection that took place at the
8:21
Speaker 1: Capitol on Wednesday, were pleasantly surprised, shocked. I'm not sure
8:26
Speaker 1: which way to really call it about how the market
8:28
Speaker 1: can trade up in the face of such uncertainty. Uh
8:32
Speaker 1: in Washington, d c our next guest, I've never received
8:34
Speaker 1: lots of phone calls from her clients asking the same.
8:38
Speaker 1: Let's check in with Christina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategies
8:42
Speaker 1: for Investco. They have one point three five trillion dollars
8:45
Speaker 1: assets under management. Christina, thanks so much for joining us again.
8:50
Speaker 1: You know, at this time of year, we would typically
8:53
Speaker 1: just say, hey, we'd love to get your year head view.
8:55
Speaker 1: And while we certainly want to get that, we want
8:57
Speaker 1: to get that in the context of what happened last week.
9:00
Speaker 1: Did you have to change your outlook at all based
9:03
Speaker 1: upon what we saw in Washington last week. No, we didn't,
9:06
Speaker 1: because markets looked through what happened. I mean, it was
9:10
Speaker 1: really amazing that stocks barely flinched because they're looking ahead
9:15
Speaker 1: to a lot more certainty than we had at any
9:18
Speaker 1: time during up until really the end of the year,
9:21
Speaker 1: and that is that we are going to have broad
9:24
Speaker 1: distribution of effective vaccines and that is going to be
9:27
Speaker 1: a game changer for the economy. In also, of course,
9:32
Speaker 1: the market doesn't month this to stop. The market wants
9:35
Speaker 1: us to keep going, and there are enough things underpinning
9:38
Speaker 1: it from you know, FED moves to as you say,
9:41
Speaker 1: the Biden administration potentially helping the market. But at some
9:43
Speaker 1: point a democratic administration is not so good for stocks, right, Christina,
9:47
Speaker 1: When do we see that, Well, that's when we start
9:51
Speaker 1: hearing the Biden administration talking about raising taxes and seeing
9:56
Speaker 1: that there's enough support in the House and in particular
10:00
Speaker 1: the Senate. Keep in mind that we did, of course
10:04
Speaker 1: see last week at the facto majority for Democrats in
10:08
Speaker 1: the Senate, but it is razor sin and that suggests
10:12
Speaker 1: that it is unlikely that any kind of very significant
10:15
Speaker 1: tax hikes would get past UM. Maybe we could see
10:19
Speaker 1: some small increases, particularly in the corporate tax, but we're
10:22
Speaker 1: not going back to pre Trump levels in terms of taxes. So, Christina,
10:27
Speaker 1: how about from the regulatory perspective, some are concerned that
10:31
Speaker 1: under a democratic administration and one that has albeit a
10:35
Speaker 1: razor thin margin in both the House and the Senate,
10:38
Speaker 1: that regulatory risk is something that investors may have to
10:41
Speaker 1: deal with more going forward. How do you view that? Definitely,
10:46
Speaker 1: regulatory risk is an issue for investors. There's no two
10:50
Speaker 1: ways about it. Um, But it's all about UM. What
10:54
Speaker 1: is the more important factors driving stocks higher and right now? Out?
11:00
Speaker 1: The potential for more fiscal stimulus, including the potential for
11:05
Speaker 1: UM a pretty significant infrastructure package, outweighs the regulatory risk.
11:13
Speaker 1: How many people in the service sector can we put
11:15
Speaker 1: to work in construction? Christina? And I'm not being funny.
11:18
Speaker 1: I'm suppose I'm trying to say, we can have all
11:21
Speaker 1: the construction and all the infrastructure projects in the world,
11:23
Speaker 1: but we still need the service sector to be able
11:26
Speaker 1: to get back to work. When do you see that happening?
11:28
Speaker 1: I think once we had that broad distribution of the vaccine.
11:32
Speaker 1: Keep in mind that this is such a different crisis
11:35
Speaker 1: than the global financial crisis, that recovery was anemic and
11:40
Speaker 1: was for much of its time a jobless recovery. I
11:44
Speaker 1: believe strongly that this is going to be a very
11:47
Speaker 1: different kind of recovery, that it is going to be
11:49
Speaker 1: more robust and more inclusive, so that when we do
11:52
Speaker 1: have that broad distribution of vaccines, were likely to see
11:55
Speaker 1: the service sector bounce back very very strongly. But I
11:59
Speaker 1: do want to push you ll not because what about
12:01
Speaker 1: small business. I mean a lot of service sector employees
12:03
Speaker 1: are employed by small restaurants and by you know, bars
12:07
Speaker 1: and other you know, cafeterias and things like that. Will
12:10
Speaker 1: they just be able to open doors again? Surely all
12:13
Speaker 1: their capital is gone. Well, certainly some have fallen victim.
12:17
Speaker 1: But having said that, we do reduce the odds um
12:21
Speaker 1: and we do reduce the level of economic scarring by
12:25
Speaker 1: offering more fiscal stimulus. Now, damage was certainly done because
12:29
Speaker 1: we went for months without any additional fiscal stimulus, but
12:32
Speaker 1: we did get a relatively small package at the end
12:35
Speaker 1: of the year, and we're likely to get more. So um,
12:38
Speaker 1: I do believe that that, yes, there has been damage
12:41
Speaker 1: done to the services sector. But there are some restaurants
12:45
Speaker 1: and bars that will be able to reopen and there
12:47
Speaker 1: will be new ones coming uh, and so I do
12:50
Speaker 1: expect a very significant bounce back in services. Christina. On
12:54
Speaker 1: the equity side, you know, how are you thinking about
12:58
Speaker 1: UM this rotation trade that's been working so well in
13:01
Speaker 1: the markets over the last four or five months, UM
13:04
Speaker 1: folks kind of getting into the more cyclical names, maybe
13:08
Speaker 1: some small cat names, anticipating kind of what I think
13:10
Speaker 1: you're looking for, which is a strong rebound in the
13:13
Speaker 1: economy beginning, you know, maybe the second third quarter of
13:16
Speaker 1: this year. How do you think about that rotation trade.
13:18
Speaker 1: I think that continues. I mean, we certainly have to
13:21
Speaker 1: expect that there are going to be difficult days in
13:23
Speaker 1: the first quarter, that we are going to get really
13:27
Speaker 1: negative news slow We're going to see statistics around the
13:31
Speaker 1: virus that are very very concerning UM. But I do
13:36
Speaker 1: believe that the stock market will look through that and
13:39
Speaker 1: look to that more robust economic recovery. So I think
13:44
Speaker 1: that the the rotation remains, but that doesn't mean we
13:49
Speaker 1: want to abandon all of the more secular growth defensive names.
13:53
Speaker 1: I do believe tech has legs even as we see
13:56
Speaker 1: that strong rotation continued towards the cyclicals and small cap
14:00
Speaker 1: What concerns you Christina? Right now? It doesn't seem like
14:03
Speaker 1: there's that much out there that does well. Certainly there
14:07
Speaker 1: are risks as we head into one. I think the
14:11
Speaker 1: first risk is around the virus and combating that. UM.
14:16
Speaker 1: We've already seen variants of COVID nineteen, including one where
14:22
Speaker 1: it's questionable to South African variant questionable whether or not
14:26
Speaker 1: current vaccines can protect against it. If we find that
14:31
Speaker 1: the current vaccines are unable to protect against it, that
14:35
Speaker 1: is a real, real problem. UM. I think that's a
14:38
Speaker 1: low probability event, but it is a very significant risk.
14:41
Speaker 1: The other big risk, which is also I think lower probability,
14:46
Speaker 1: is that we see monetary accommodation pull away too quickly.
14:50
Speaker 1: And I think certainly what we've heard from recently from
14:53
Speaker 1: beneficials suggest that's not going to happen. But those are
14:56
Speaker 1: two very significant risks. So how do you expect the
15:00
Speaker 1: Do you expect the FED to continue with that messaging
15:02
Speaker 1: of moderate rates for the first table future? I do.
15:06
Speaker 1: I don't think the FED will make the mistake of
15:09
Speaker 1: starting to talk about withdrawing accommodation, even if we do
15:13
Speaker 1: get more fiscal stimulus, even if we do see signs
15:16
Speaker 1: of inflation which have yet to really show. All right, Christina,
15:22
Speaker 1: thank you very much. That is Christina Hooper of Investco.
15:25
Speaker 1: Always absolutely thrilled to have your thoughts, and of course,
15:29
Speaker 1: so the market just continues on the pace we are
15:31
Speaker 1: hearing from Reuters. I do want to mention Paul, an
15:34
Speaker 1: aide to Reuter, is saying that the son of Gop
15:37
Speaker 1: is thinking about starting an impeachment trial Friday, that is
15:40
Speaker 1: two days from now. Yeah, that's the big news. The
15:42
Speaker 1: real question is timing for the Senate. We may be
15:45
Speaker 1: getting a little bit of not here. Yeah, exactly, much
15:48
Speaker 1: much sooner than we anticipated. Obviously, a lot of today's
15:52
Speaker 1: market action will be lead my Intel, which is the
15:55
Speaker 1: best performer in the SMPI. But there are other stocks
15:58
Speaker 1: hired to Dave Wilson, including some of the pharmaceuticals like Eli,
16:01
Speaker 1: Lily and Regeneral with with all the developments of the
16:06
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen front and other types of drugs where you've
16:09
Speaker 1: really seen uh drug maker's benefit at General Motors is
16:13
Speaker 1: another example. And remember those shares hit a record yesterday.
16:18
Speaker 1: Uh since the company returned to the public markets. In
16:21
Speaker 1: all this coming with enthusiasm for GM's electric vehicles, that
16:27
Speaker 1: clearly Intel is sort of the class of the field.
16:30
Speaker 1: You might say in today's trading. You know, it's funny,
16:33
Speaker 1: I was singing back to yesterday. We were talking about
16:35
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Sands and the death of their founder, Shell
16:39
Speaker 1: Sheldon Adelson, and you know what might happen because of that,
16:42
Speaker 1: and you didn't really see the stock move in response.
16:45
Speaker 1: Today it's a much more obvious example. You got CEO
16:49
Speaker 1: Bob Swan leaving the chip maker after just two years
16:52
Speaker 1: of running the company and on the heels of a
16:55
Speaker 1: push by activist investor Dan Lowe for some kind of change,
17:00
Speaker 1: possible break up ASTs say, oh, other strategic options. So
17:04
Speaker 1: you've got sort of a cause and effect arguably that
17:08
Speaker 1: people are seeing in that move, and you know the
17:11
Speaker 1: potential for things to happen down the line. And by
17:14
Speaker 1: the way, we should point out it's not just Intel
17:17
Speaker 1: moving because uh, you know, the chip maker is bringing
17:21
Speaker 1: in vm Ware's had Pat Gelsinger to take over from Swan,
17:26
Speaker 1: and vm Ware shares them down five point three percent
17:29
Speaker 1: as we speak, so you know it's being seen as
17:32
Speaker 1: a loss for vm Ware and a win for Intel
17:36
Speaker 1: this management change. Let's bring in an A. Rock Ran,
17:39
Speaker 1: a senior technology analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's been covering
17:42
Speaker 1: the tech space for decades. A Rod, thanks so much
17:45
Speaker 1: for joining us here. What does it mean for a
17:49
Speaker 1: tech giant like Intel to bring in, uh, someone like
17:53
Speaker 1: Pat Gelsinger from vm ware? What's it mean for Intel? So?
17:57
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be any interesting move, largely
17:59
Speaker 1: big because perhaps one of the strongest CEOs in the
18:02
Speaker 1: software world. You know, in our opinion right after you know,
18:06
Speaker 1: Microsoft CEO, I would rank Path as the number two
18:09
Speaker 1: in the software land. And frankly, you know, the whole
18:11
Speaker 1: world is moving towards more software define defined work no
18:15
Speaker 1: matter where it is, and Intel really needs some kind
18:19
Speaker 1: of a push behind them to you know, get their
18:21
Speaker 1: act together. So so I think it's a very sharp
18:24
Speaker 1: move for Intel and obviously a big loss for vm
18:26
Speaker 1: There who will vm We're fine to take over. So
18:31
Speaker 1: they've already announced their CFO as the internim CEO. UM.
18:35
Speaker 1: There are a few candidates. There is one particular candidate
18:38
Speaker 1: internally that I I really admire. He's their chief operating
18:42
Speaker 1: officer for customer operations called Sanja putin. UM. I think
18:45
Speaker 1: he could be one person that that could take over
18:48
Speaker 1: the real the helm. But you know, it's a it's
18:52
Speaker 1: a software company with a number of assets. UM. It
18:55
Speaker 1: could be somebody from outside, but you know, my my
18:57
Speaker 1: money would be on Sanjai. It's is this signify on
19:01
Speaker 1: a rug A push or a bigger push by Intel
19:06
Speaker 1: into the cloud? Do they feel like they have relating
19:09
Speaker 1: lag behind some of the technology peers. I think, Paul,
19:13
Speaker 1: it's more than that. It's just a matter of execution.
19:16
Speaker 1: It's a matter of getting their manufacturing problem fixed, getting
19:19
Speaker 1: their roadmap fixed. Um. And you know, if I go
19:22
Speaker 1: back and think about vm Ware just about four or
19:25
Speaker 1: five years ago, you know, it was in a similar
19:27
Speaker 1: spot that it was always thought of as a company
19:30
Speaker 1: with only on premise products and not doing well. And
19:33
Speaker 1: then packed with his genius, you know, came up with
19:35
Speaker 1: a couple of acquisitions that were very sharp. Then he um,
19:39
Speaker 1: you know, did a deal with Amazon Web Services, just
19:41
Speaker 1: a deal to move some of their workloads over to Amazon,
19:45
Speaker 1: and boyd what it did to the stock from that
19:47
Speaker 1: point onwards. The stock hasn't looked back. And that's been
19:50
Speaker 1: about five years. So I mean, this guy knows what
19:53
Speaker 1: he's doing when it comes to strategic partnerships as well
19:56
Speaker 1: as you know, relevant acquisitions. Deb Swan steer the company
20:01
Speaker 1: pretty well until now it doesn't look like see I mean,
20:06
Speaker 1: inters been interest and really poorly over the last few years.
20:09
Speaker 1: I mean, if you were to take away to push
20:12
Speaker 1: the seared or the stock price improvement in the past
20:14
Speaker 1: few days, it's not performed well. And you know, evaluation
20:18
Speaker 1: wise also it's it's it's it's fairly poor and it
20:21
Speaker 1: seems am d is you know, gaining share from them,
20:24
Speaker 1: So you know they really need to do something um,
20:27
Speaker 1: you know, quickly and and and I would say more
20:30
Speaker 1: aggressively to turn the things around. So, Dave, this is
20:33
Speaker 1: a big win for Dan Loeb and for you know,
20:36
Speaker 1: activist investors perhaps in general. What are we seeing in
20:39
Speaker 1: the world of activism, um, in the marketplace here, given
20:43
Speaker 1: what's happened uncertainly in the markets, Well, it's kind of
20:47
Speaker 1: been a constant over the last few years for for
20:50
Speaker 1: activists to step in and push for change. And it
20:54
Speaker 1: will be interesting to see how much Dan Lobe actually
20:57
Speaker 1: wins because you know, when he came out last month
21:00
Speaker 1: with this letter to Intel's chairman. He said that his
21:04
Speaker 1: hedge fund Third Point had significant steak. We don't know
21:07
Speaker 1: how big the steak is yet, and we may not
21:10
Speaker 1: know until mid February, when you know, institutional investors have
21:14
Speaker 1: to report on their whole things as of the end
21:17
Speaker 1: of December, so you know, that will be sort of
21:20
Speaker 1: another piece of the puzzle. How does Bob and his uh,
21:26
Speaker 1: you know, shareholders in essence benefit from what's happening at Intel,
21:30
Speaker 1: and you know, will they be making moves with the
21:33
Speaker 1: shares now that they're running up today? And it's interesting
21:36
Speaker 1: how he phrased it in his tweet. He said Swan
21:38
Speaker 1: as a contact and did the right thing for old
21:39
Speaker 1: steak over orders, stepping aside for Gil Singer, almost taking
21:43
Speaker 1: a little bit of credit. But it's not quite clear
21:44
Speaker 1: of what was happening behind the scenes. That will take
21:47
Speaker 1: a lot of investigation. Really, a Swan named CEO back
21:52
Speaker 1: in January of twenty nineteen. He had served as interim
21:55
Speaker 1: CEO for about six months before that. But certainly, as
21:58
Speaker 1: you both said, Intel shares are up more than nine
22:01
Speaker 1: percent today, VM, we're down about five. Well. One of
22:08
Speaker 1: the many things on President elect Biden's to do list
22:12
Speaker 1: is likely the challenge of repairing the relationship between the
22:15
Speaker 1: U S and many of its allies around the world.
22:17
Speaker 1: To get a sense of how that might be achieved,
22:20
Speaker 1: we welcome Bill Rhodes, President and CEO of William R.
22:23
Speaker 1: Rhodes Global Advisors, former chairman at City Bank, and Bill
22:28
Speaker 1: is also the author of Banker to the World, Leadership
22:31
Speaker 1: Lessons from the front Lines of Global Finance. Bill, thanks
22:34
Speaker 1: so much for joining us here and again, the to
22:37
Speaker 1: do list for President elect Biden must be, uh, you know,
22:40
Speaker 1: quite long. I'm wondering as it relates to China in particular,
22:45
Speaker 1: how do you think President LEC. Biden and his administration
22:48
Speaker 1: should approach China given what we've experienced over the last
22:51
Speaker 1: four years. Great to be on with you, Paul and Vanni.
22:55
Speaker 1: I think he puts a real priority on working with
23:00
Speaker 1: the Chinese, but in a very realistic way. He's talking
23:02
Speaker 1: about appointing a czar for Asia UH, and I think
23:06
Speaker 1: he recognizes that there's no quick fix to our trade
23:10
Speaker 1: situation and to some of the other problems Taiwan UH,
23:15
Speaker 1: the problems of Chinese penetration in the South China see
23:21
Speaker 1: A set could run on through them. UH, And of
23:24
Speaker 1: course the deficit in trade is a big problem. I
23:29
Speaker 1: think that he's going to move very cautiously. I don't
23:31
Speaker 1: think he's going to move rapidly to take off the
23:35
Speaker 1: three and seventy billion dollars of tariffs we've put on
23:38
Speaker 1: the Chinese. But I think he's willing to dialogue with
23:42
Speaker 1: him on things like climate change and perhaps some other issues.
23:46
Speaker 1: But he's going to move very cautiously on on China. Bill.
23:51
Speaker 1: I have to ask you about your reaction to events
23:54
Speaker 1: last week. Of course, you would have been around, you know,
23:57
Speaker 1: during so many previous administrations, growing right back as far
24:01
Speaker 1: as Nixon Ford even through the Vietnam War. What did
24:04
Speaker 1: you make of what you saw in Capitol Hill last week? Well,
24:08
Speaker 1: first of all, I've been inundated with calls from around
24:11
Speaker 1: the world asking me that same question, Monny, because people
24:15
Speaker 1: are really horrified with what happened there. Because although we've
24:19
Speaker 1: had our problems over the last few years, the great
24:22
Speaker 1: democracies in Europe and elsewhere, UH, places like Australia New
24:27
Speaker 1: Zealand always looked to us as a beacon of democracy, UH,
24:32
Speaker 1: in their in their way of doing business, and they
24:36
Speaker 1: couldn't believe what happened on Capitol Hill. Now I've been through,
24:41
Speaker 1: as you point out, Vietnam Watergate, and the United States
24:46
Speaker 1: UH had a real problem UH internally with its relationships
24:50
Speaker 1: and also how the view the view of the world
24:53
Speaker 1: was towards us. But we managed to work our way out,
24:56
Speaker 1: because we always do. I think we will again here
25:00
Speaker 1: what UH. It will not be easy or quick, but
25:04
Speaker 1: I think that Joe Biden will want to play the
25:07
Speaker 1: role at Jerry Ford did in trying to bring the
25:10
Speaker 1: country back together again. I think this whole process we're
25:14
Speaker 1: going through now of impeachment will probably go right through
25:17
Speaker 1: the Senate because my own feeling. I haven't spoken to him,
25:21
Speaker 1: but I think Mitch McConnell will not oppose it. He
25:24
Speaker 1: will go along with it because he's very concerned about
25:27
Speaker 1: the future of the Republican Party UH and what's happened
25:31
Speaker 1: with Trump hijacking it. So we are in for a
25:34
Speaker 1: difficult period of time. But I think Biden, with his
25:38
Speaker 1: relationships with the Republicans, including Mitch McConnell and others, I
25:43
Speaker 1: think he's probably the right person to be in the
25:45
Speaker 1: job at this time to heal us. Just as Jerry
25:48
Speaker 1: Ford was at the time of Watergate in Vietnam. So, Bill,
25:53
Speaker 1: there are a lot of obviously issues here domestically in
25:56
Speaker 1: terms of wounds that need to be healed that they
25:59
Speaker 1: became obviously those wounds became just most apparent last week.
26:02
Speaker 1: But there's also issues with our global allies. I mean,
26:06
Speaker 1: presumably president elected Biden will attempt to re engage with
26:11
Speaker 1: some of our core allies in Europe in Asia. To
26:14
Speaker 1: what extent do you think they're going to welcome us
26:16
Speaker 1: back with open arms given the last four years? Well,
26:21
Speaker 1: Europe has its own problems. You've seen Brexit, and there
26:24
Speaker 1: are differences right within the EU and the euro Zone.
26:28
Speaker 1: So I think they will welcome us in the sense
26:31
Speaker 1: of wanting to cooperate, but the agenda has changed somewhat.
26:36
Speaker 1: So I think what you have with with Biden as
26:40
Speaker 1: he has as his secretary when he's not been approved
26:42
Speaker 1: yet but is UH candidate for Secretary of State, Tony B.
26:46
Speaker 1: Lincoln is very pro European and believes in the Atlantic
26:51
Speaker 1: Alliance and actually was educated part of his life UH
26:54
Speaker 1: in Europe, and he always demonstrated in his you know,
26:59
Speaker 1: his previous role in the State Department and as an
27:02
Speaker 1: assistant to to then plays President Biden his interest in
27:09
Speaker 1: in doing that, and I think Biden also believes very
27:13
Speaker 1: much in the Atlantic Alliance. But the world is shifted
27:16
Speaker 1: and towards Asia, and I think we need to watch
27:19
Speaker 1: what the policies are going to be towards Asia, particularly
27:22
Speaker 1: on trade. UH. I would like to see them resurrect
27:26
Speaker 1: the Transpacific Partnership, which UH Trump left the first day
27:30
Speaker 1: in office, decided to to reject it, and the other
27:34
Speaker 1: nations UH in Asia went ahead with it on their own, Japan, Australia, others.
27:39
Speaker 1: I don't think that will happen anytime soon, but I
27:42
Speaker 1: think that's the type of spirit I think you're going
27:45
Speaker 1: to see out of this new administration you lead that
27:48
Speaker 1: they're going to go back to to push the efforts
27:52
Speaker 1: on climate change, green finance. UH, They're going to want
27:56
Speaker 1: to strength in the Atlantic Alliance. UH. They will be
27:59
Speaker 1: very prone job and they will want to re engage
28:02
Speaker 1: our allies in Asia much more so than the Trump administration.
28:06
Speaker 1: Bill Rhodes, you are sticking around. We have lots more
28:08
Speaker 1: to talk about, and we want to get into more
28:11
Speaker 1: detail regarding what you just said about Asia. That's Bill Rhodes,
28:16
Speaker 1: banker to the world and author by the way of
28:18
Speaker 1: a book of the same name, And really no matter
28:21
Speaker 1: what country you're in the world, you'll be able to
28:22
Speaker 1: get a local language translation of that book by Bill Rhodes.
28:27
Speaker 1: Just keep you updated. There is some procedureal votes going
28:29
Speaker 1: on in the House now before the debate on impeachment.
28:33
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe
28:37
Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast
28:40
Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at
28:43
Speaker 1: Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at
28:46
Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us
28:49
Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio